Searching

Do you remember yesterday, when we talked about getting three real NHL prospects from every draft? In 2015, Edmonton traded a bunch of picks but found a way with strong selections in the fourth (Caleb Jones) and fifth (Ethan Bear) rounds.

Assuming the Oilers draft quality in the first and third rounds in 2020, can we identify a player who won’t go in the first three rounds who is a real NHL prospect?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

THE THIRD MAN

In 2015, Peter Chiarelli traded much of the draft but the club was gifted No. 1 overall (Connor McDavid, 351 games), Caleb Jones (60), Ethan Bear (89) and John Marino (56).

The 2016 draft isn’t projecting as hoped, but Jesse Puljujarvi (139 games), Tyler Benson (7) and Filip Berglund are lurching toward ecstasy and I think there’s a good chance at least one of them makes the grade.

The 2017 draft houses Kailer Yamamoto (53 games), Dmitri Samorukov and Phil Kemp, who Craig Button mentioned as a promising player this week. Kemp is a shutdown defender, difficult to assess from here, but I trust Button’s assessment.

The 2018 draft boasts Evan Bouchard (7 games), Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrigue as the most promising NHL prospects, and all three are on a trajectory that should see them land in the NHL at least for a time.

The 2019 draft is looking strong so far, but a reminder it’s 15 months since these young men were selected, that’s not much track. Philip Broberg is spiking in real time over in the SHL, Raphael Lavoie is a unique shooter aggressively pushing for opportunity and Ilya Konovalov is enjoying a strong KHL season (his third) and is a free agent in the summer of 2021.

Oilers in 2020

Edmonton has picks at No. 14, 76, 138, 169 and 200. If we assume (and there’s a reasonable chance) Tyler Wright and the scouting staff pick quality with the first two picks, then what should or could they be looking for at No. 138?

I would suggest the team try to grab an overage player, someone who has shown an ability to play at a high level already and who might not be far from pushing for an NHL job.

Artyom Galimov plays in the KHL for Ak Bars Kazan. He turned 21 on September 8. He went 55, 13-10-23 a year ago and this year (8 games) is 1-3-4. He is a center, 5.11, 180 and is 53.1 percent in the dot so far this season. I think he could slide right in at the AHL level now (KHL is a better league) in a feature role.

The Draft Analyst has more in their fantastic draft report: “Quick to the puck and delivering shifts packed with energy and enthusiasm, Galimov can play center or wing and is an excellent penalty killer. He also owns a plus-plus shot that he wires with confidence from the high slot or circles. Although Galimov is too old for junior tournaments, get used to seeing his name on rosters for the men’s national teams, and if he goes undrafted for a final time, there’s no doubt NHL teams will be lining up for his services as a free agent two or three years down the road.”

TYLER WRIGHT

I was asked about Tyler Wright’s track record yesterday, and have written about it before so am going to re-publish a quick review.

  • He had a solid draft with Columbus in 2012. Ryan Murray was the first rounder, injuries have derailed him. Joonas Korpisalo has emerged as a good goaltender and Josh Anderson is a substantial player when healthy. That was a good draft.
  • In 2013, no home runs but Oliver Bjorkstrand in the third round was quality. Alexander Wennberg was the first round pick, he should be better than he’s shown but we’re several years on now.
  • In 2014, he moved to Detroit and selected Dylan Larkin at No. 15 overall. That’s his best pick, no question.
  • The 2015 draft looks like a miss, shocking because there was so much talent available. It’s kind of incredible how bad the DRW draft was that season.
  • In 2016, when Edmonton was having a hard time, the DRW grabbed Filip Hronek in the second round (Dennis Cholowski in the first).
  • I really like the 2018 draft (Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno, Jonatan Berggren, Jared McIsaac, Alex Regula).
  • Too soon to know about the 2019 draft, Moritz Seider had a strong AHL season as a teenager.

As is always the case with scouting directors, too soon to know. I will tell you that in my soul I believe Ken Holland made the Broberg pick, I’ve suggested it before and been true on this point. We didn’t hear Broberg’s name until after Holland arrived. My point being that it’s looking like a good pick at this point, and Lavoie plus Konovalov are tracking well. I like Denezhkin quite a bit. Maybe this could work out. I still think the club’s scouting department was solid without the shuffle, but que sera sera.

CREDIT DUE

In yesterday’s blog, I linked to a Bob Stauffer tweet about Jesse Puljujarvi possibly signing with the Oilers (sounding like it may happen). I tagged it with a Alex Chiasson-for-Anders Bjork trade rumour that has been online for some time.

A few hours later, one of the folks I met here on the blog sent me a tweet that credited me with the Puljujarvi and Bjork rumours. I want to be very clear here: I always credit the trade rumour to source (in this case, Bob) and if I can’t you’ll see me say “a rumour out in the ether” as I did yesterday. I don’t publish rumours because that’s not what I do. I am lucky enough to receive dozens of rumours a year but I don’t publish them.

Why? Two reasons. I am not a day-to-day reporter of the team as a Frank Seravalli or Ryan Rishaug or Daniel Nugent-Bowman is, so my sources are extremely unlikely to be as credible as the men who are close to the ground. These men do hard work and some wingnut like me offering titillating rumours benefits no one and makes me an ass for pretending to be something I’m not nor do I have any desire to be. Being that guy has no appeal for me. Second, that’s not what this blog or what I write is about, and I want to keep the prose on track for fear of losing my way.

My blog and my writing at The Athletic is designed to chronicle and analyze, to ‘think along with the general manager’ or ‘figure out what the scouting director is thinking’ as I’m trying to do now. So when you see “as per Lowetide” and it doesn’t end “always buy Crown Royal and Ginger Ale before the weekend” you’ll know it’s not me. Thanks.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, another full boat of guests on the Lowdown. Steve Lansky joins me at 10:20 from the Inside the Truck podcast to talk about the SC Final, Jays in the postseason and who takes Don Cherry’s job. Frank Seravalli from TSN will chime in with the latest trade and draft stories as we get ready for the big two-week offseason where the NHL goes wild. Matt Iwanyk will pop in to talk Jamal Murray, NFL Week 3 and Techmo Bowl. Chris Meaney from FTN Network will preview NFL Week 3. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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142 Responses to "Searching"

  1. Jiminey says:

    LT, you have alluded to the desire of wanting to redo your draft list a few times over the past few weeks but have not for your own reasons. I am very curious to know though, who is the one player that has moved up your draft board the most, and who is the player that has fallen the most?

  2. Harpers Hair says:

    Just listened to an extensive interview with JD Burke of Elite Prospects.

    Among many other things, he mentioned that the USHL has now surpassed the QMJHL as a development league.

    He wouldn’t reveal the proprietary information that has led to that conclusion but said the development path from the USHL through the NCAA to the NHL is quickly gaining ground on the traditional route from junior hockey through the AHL to the NHL.

    He suggested only a few teams have capitalized on this “market inefficiency “ and its paying off for them in a big way.

  3. Harpers Hair says:

    NHL News (@PuckReportNHL) Tweeted:
    Columbus Blue Jackets considering buyout of Alexander Wennberg, per @Aportzline. Has three years remaining at a $4.9M cap hit, a buyout would cost $441,667 for next 3 seasons, then $891,667 for another 3. #CBJ

  4. Lowetide says:

    Jiminey:
    LT, you have alluded to the desire of wanting to redo your draft list a few times over the past few weeks but have not for your own reasons. I am very curious to know though, who is the one player that has moved up your draft board the most, and who is the player that has fallen the most?

    I would move up Marat Khusnutdinov by a lot, have him at No. 64. No obvious player I would fade.

  5. Brantford Boy says:

    As per LT… https://lowetide.ca/2020/09/15/the-overagers/

    Artyom Galimov isn’t even listed there… this must be a fake blog…

    And remember kids… always buy Spicebox and Ginger Ale for the week!

  6. Primetime says:

    Harpers Hair:
    NHL News (@PuckReportNHL) Tweeted:
    Columbus Blue Jackets considering buyout of Alexander Wennberg, per @Aportzline. Has three years remaining at a $4.9M cap hit, a buyout would cost $441,667 for next 3 seasons, then $891,667 for another 3. #CBJ

    If you were the Oilers, would you be interested? I think I would be, albeit at a much lower cap hit than he currently has.

    He may have been a little miscast in Columbus. They needed him to be a scoring 2nd line centre between Dubois (offensive C) and Jenner (defensive C). He couldn’t consistently live up to the offensive expectation.

    However, by eye (and report from Torts), he is not bad defensively. He was pretty effective against Tavares/Marner in the playoffs this year. Would he flourish as a 3C in Edmonton, with much less pressure to produce offensively?

  7. Harpers Hair says:

    If Columbus buys out Wennberg is he the Oilers #3C?

    As noted by LT, he was drafted by Tyler Wright.

  8. Harpers Hair says:

    Primetime: If you were the Oilers, would you be interested?I think I would be, albeit at a much lower cap hit than he currently has.

    He may have been a little miscast in Columbus.They needed him to be a scoring 2nd line centre between Dubois (offensive C) and Jenner (defensive C).He couldn’t consistently live up to the offensive expectation.

    However, by eye (and report from Torts), he is not bad defensively.He was pretty effective against Tavares/Marner in the playoffs this year.Would he flourish as a 3C in Edmonton, with much less pressure to produce offensively?

    Makes sense to me.

  9. Ryan says:

    Lowetide, I know you also follow the Bruins.

    Who is Anders Bjork and why would they trade a 24-year-old with a $1.6m cap for Chiasson?

    His last season was 1.59 points per hour at 5v5. That’s like manna from heaven for the Oilers.

  10. John Chambers says:

    Wow, Wennberg at 3C would be near perfect.

    In 10 postseason games he went 3-2-5. At ~$2.5M or less he’d fit the budget and the role.

    This offseason it might be sensible to not qualify Athanasiou, buy-out Neal, and offer a pick for someone to take Kris Russell. The amount of discounted true-NHL talent might be worth all the paper cuts.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    Senators put Bobby Ryan on waivers for the purpose of a buyout.

  12. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just listened to an extensive interview with JD Burke of Elite Prospects.

    Among many other things, he mentioned that the USHL has now surpassed the QMJHL as a development league.

    He wouldn’t reveal the proprietary information that has led to that conclusion but said the development path from the USHL through the NCAA to the NHL is quickly gaining ground on the traditional route from junior hockey through the AHL to the NHL.

    He suggested only a few teams have capitalized on this “market inefficiency “ and its paying off for them in a big way.

    There are not as many spots in the USHL-NCAA route, and with more and more Americans playing hockey, it willed become clogged.

    So it may end up being the prefered route for those with privilege of talent, intelligence, and/or money, but the funnel will be too small too early to affect the CHL.

  13. godot10 says:

    Primetime: If you were the Oilers, would you be interested?I think I would be, albeit at a much lower cap hit than he currently has.

    He may have been a little miscast in Columbus.They needed him to be a scoring 2nd line centre between Dubois (offensive C) and Jenner (defensive C).He couldn’t consistently live up to the offensive expectation.

    However, by eye (and report from Torts), he is not bad defensively.He was pretty effective against Tavares/Marner in the playoffs this year.Would he flourish as a 3C in Edmonton, with much less pressure to produce offensively?

    Would Columbus be interested in Kassian?

  14. Woogie63 says:

    Over the recent years, I have wondered about the quality of the “reporting” done about the Oilers. The MSM media and the Oilers seem really chummy, to the point it sometime feels like PR verses reporting.

    This week, a significant riff between Maroon and Lucic was reported by an out of market sports reporter. Clearly Matty, Rishaug, Spector (reports with editors) knew about the conflict, but reported nothing.

    Edmonton is a small market, with lots of rumours and hockey player stories in the water cooler conversations, however I can’t remember one story researched, investigated and then reported.

  15. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: There are not as many spots in the USHL-NCAA route, and with more and more Americans playing hockey, it willed become clogged.

    So it may end up being the prefered route for those with privilege of talent, intelligence, and/or money, but the funnel will be too small too early to affect the CHL.

    There are 14 currently active USHL teams and The BC Junior Hockey League has also become a major feeder league for the NCAA.

    Considering there are now 61 Division 1 teams in the NCAA, I think there is certainly a chance for disruption of the historical development model.

  16. Jordan says:

    Lowetide,

    Not sure what the deal is, but I’m getting bounced from your main page four out of five times I try to access it. I managed to get here through the link you posted on twitter after a few refreshes, it eventually loaded.

    I saw that there’s been some challenges with the site over the last few days – hopefully as everything gets worked through, this will also get resolved – just wanted to advise that there are still some hickups.

    Also, for everyone who provided feedback yesterday about my impressions of the Marino trade – I accept I was over-reacting. Glad the young man is finding success, and good on Rutherford for building his team with a strong young D-man.

    Hopefully the Oilers can continue to find quality players deeper in the draft. #NoCokeMachines

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    Woogie63:
    Over the recent years, I have wondered about the quality of the “reporting” done about the Oilers.The MSM media and the Oilers seem really chummy, to the point it sometime feels like PR verses reporting.

    This week, a significant riff between Maroon and Lucic was reported by an out of market sports reporter.Clearly Matty, Rishaug, Spector (reports with editors) knew about the conflict, but reported nothing.

    Edmonton is a small market, with lots of rumours and hockey player stories in the water cooler conversations, however I can’t remember one story researched, investigated and then reported.

    From personal experience, I can tell you that the Oilers administration has long been very punitive to any reporter who steps out of the lines.

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: There are not as many spots in the USHL-NCAA route, and with more and more Americans playing hockey, it willed become clogged.

    So it may end up being the prefered route for those with privilege of talent, intelligence, and/or money, but the funnel will be too small too early to affect the CHL.

    More on the BCJHL pipeline to the NCAA.

    The numbers and quality of players is eye popping.

    https://bchl.ca/bchl-sets-new-mark-of-164-players-committed-from-2018-19-season

  19. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woogie63,

    Brian Burke talked about the Lucic-vs-Maroon rift in the dressing room on Bob’s show before Lucic was traded, if my memory serves me.

  20. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Can you flesh this out with some more detail? The behind the scenes information is fascinating.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confirmed, the Lokomotiv game is indeed a go and Konovalov is in net.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bobby Ryan is going to be bought out – is there any thought of signing him to a 1 year $1.5M contract (give or take)?

    Lets not forget the personal battles he had been going through which I’m sure effected his entire life including his play on the ice. Could be a decent bet for a value contract and, if not, well, low risk.

    I think he can play both wings, no?

  23. Eh Team says:

    Harpers Hair: There are 14 currently active USHL teams and The BC Junior Hockey League has also become a major feeder league for the NCAA.

    Considering there are now 61 Division 1 teams in the NCAA, I think there is certainly a chance for disruption of the historical development model.

    And the AJHL also, with Makar and Holloway (and Savoie and Benning) as examples. There are also the older kids who go down to the NCAA at 20 who could emerge as NHL possibilities after a couple of years in the NCAA.

  24. Harpers Hair says:

    Eh Team: And the AJHL also, with Makar and Holloway (and Savoie and Benning) as examples.There are also the older kids who go down to the NCAA at 20 who could emerge as NHL possibilities after a couple of years in the NCAA.

    Yep.

    In the NCAA players can take advantage of lots of coaching, practice time and skill development that may be lacking at the junior level.

  25. Harpers Hair says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Harpers Hair,

    Can you flesh this out with some more detail?The behind the scenes information is fascinating.

    Without naming names…the GM of the team called the station manager demanding a reporter being fired for asking uncomfortable questions about a player.

  26. slopitch says:

    Crazy how well the scouts did in 2015 despite losing the picks compared to our drafting history. Like the last quality 2nd rounder was Petry and they delivered Bear, Jones and Marino. Oilers really need to deliever in the later rounds here. Perhaps Konovalov can emerge.

  27. OilersFuture says:

    Artyom Galimov plays in the KHL for Ak Bars Kazan. He turned 21 on September 8. He went 55, 13-10-23 a year ago and this year (8 games) is 1-3-4. He is a center, 5.11, 180 and is 53.1 percent in the dot so far this season. I think he could slide right in at the AHL level now (KHL is a better league) in a feature role.

    Galimov is a guy that I had circled. There’s a couple of intriguing potential late rounders in Russia. I like Dmitri Ovchinnikov projected to go 5th/6th round. He’s a two-way player that was above a PPG (MHL) with an August birthday. He’s played 3 games in the KHL this year.

  28. Ryan says:

    Jordan:
    Lowetide,

    Not sure what the deal is, but I’m getting bounced from your main page four out of five times I try to access it.I managed to get here through the link you posted on twitter after a few refreshes, it eventually loaded.

    I saw that there’s been some challenges with the site over the last few days – hopefully as everything gets worked through, this will also get resolved – just wanted to advise that there are still some hickups.

    Also, for everyone who provided feedback yesterday about my impressions of the Marino trade – I accept I was over-reacting.Glad the young man is finding success, and good on Rutherford for building his team with a strong young D-man.

    Hopefully the Oilers can continue to find quality players deeper in the draft. #NoCokeMachines

    There was a malware issue on the site that was redirecting traffic to a phishing site.

    I believe that Lowetide and Godaddy resolved that issue.

    I would recommend clearing your browser cache.

  29. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Senators put Bobby Ryan on waivers for the purpose of a buyout.

    That’s a bit of an odd one, no?

    Unless Melnyk has done an about face and is planning to spend to the cap this year. The buyout only saves $2M real dollars all told once you replace him on the roster (for $800k).

  30. dustrock says:

    Woogie63:
    Over the recent years, I have wondered about the quality of the “reporting” done about the Oilers.The MSM media and the Oilers seem really chummy, to the point it sometime feels like PR verses reporting.

    This week, a significant riff between Maroon and Lucic was reported by an out of market sports reporter.Clearly Matty, Rishaug, Spector (reports with editors) knew about the conflict, but reported nothing.

    Edmonton is a small market, with lots of rumours and hockey player stories in the water cooler conversations, however I can’t remember one story researched, investigated and then reported.

    James Dolan banned Frank Isola from MSG because he was too critical of Dolan and the Knicks.

    Dan Snyder banned all MSM Washington reporters and set up his own “Washington Red____ Press” team to do fluff pieces on the team and players.

    Owners can control access, and for the Edmonton MSM reporters, if they’re going to be too critical, their access will be curtailed.

    This is why we need the Allan Mitchells and Jonathan Willises, who don’t have a stake in access, to more accurately report on what’s happening.

    Gregor probably comes the closest at actually asking critical questions, and Matty and Jones are mostly just mailing it in these days.

    I like Rishaug but he is very-pro team. DNB is young but doing a pretty good job I think.

    Oh I didn’t mention David Staples.

  31. HugThePost says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jeff Petry signs a 4 year contract extension with Montreal.

    https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/canadiens-sign-defenseman-jeff-petry-to-a-four-year-contract-extension/c-319182532?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=carte&utm_campaign=CHCcontent&utm_content=EN-0925-Petry

    What….did Bergevin not want to challenge Petry before opening up the cheque book? You can’t pay every defenceman $4million you know.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t really want to re-start yesterday’s convo, but the Oil did pick another real NHL prospect in the 6th round of the 2015 draft…..

  33. HugThePost says:

    Woogie63:
    Over the recent years, I have wondered about the quality of the “reporting” done about the Oilers.The MSM media and the Oilers seem really chummy, to the point it sometime feels like PR verses reporting.

    This week, a significant riff between Maroon and Lucic was reported by an out of market sports reporter.Clearly Matty, Rishaug, Spector (reports with editors) knew about the conflict, but reported nothing.

    Edmonton is a small market, with lots of rumours and hockey player stories in the water cooler conversations, however I can’t remember one story researched, investigated and then reported.

    Interesting. I wonder if this rift between 19 and 27 was happening during the outlier 2016 playoff year?

    Hard to know what came first the rift or the losing. One thing is for certain, there always seems to be drama with the Oilers behind the scenes.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t know if it will be via a Benning trade, a Khaira trade, an AA trade, a Puljujarvi trade, a trade-down from the 14th or something off the board but I would anticipate that Holland will acquire at least one additional pick in the 2nd-3rd round.

    I remember the words “I owe it to the scouts to give them picks” – or words to that effect – from earlier this “off-season”.

  35. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jeff Petry signs a 4 year contract extension with Montreal.

    https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/canadiens-sign-defenseman-jeff-petry-to-a-four-year-contract-extension/c-319182532?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=carte&utm_campaign=CHCcontent&utm_content=EN-0925-Petry

    $6.25M. He’ll be 37 for most of the last year of the deal.

    Covid pricing’s going to come into effect at some point, right?

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Phil Kemp – I have a feeling about this player and his ability to carve himself an NHL career – I’ve heard some VERY good things about his defending at the college level, one of the best in the nation, forces offences to change strategy…..

    Will he play hockey this year? No Ivy League and its his senior year. Will he lose his college eligibility and sign an AHL deal (if there is a place to play) or a European deal?

  37. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Without naming names…the GM of the team called the station manager demanding a reporter being fired for asking uncomfortable questions about a player.

    Sather protected most of his players like they were kinfolk. He bailed quite a few wild and crazy players out of deep shit with very little fanfare.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov stops 37 of 40 but takes the L in a 3-2 loss.

  39. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: More on the BCJHL pipeline to the NCAA.

    The numbers and quality of players is eye popping.

    https://bchl.ca/bchl-sets-new-mark-of-164-players-committed-from-2018-19-season

    I am not disagreeing with you. For those with grades and talent, it will often be the preferred route. But the Americans are coming too. The funnel in tighter and smaller.

    Plus, from a non-hockey macroeconomic point of view, universities are ripe for disruption. They were before Covid already. Post-covid, they will be even moreso. The cost structure of North American post-secondary education has ballooned to tulip bubble levels. Apart from institutions that can run off of their endowments, the current system in North America is going to be toast.

  40. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bobby Ryan is going to be bought out – is there any thought of signing him to a 1 year $1.5M contract (give or take)?

    Lets not forget the personal battles he had been going through which I’m sure effected his entire life including his play on the ice. Could be a decent bet for a value contract and, if not, well, low risk.

    I think he can play both wings, no?

    Too slow. He is James Neal. We have Neal and Chiasson already. How many of those guys can one have?

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note, as we anticipated and are seeing (and saw with Brodin), Petry’s contract is mid-loaded – $5M in the 1st and 4th years and $7.5M in years 2 and 3.

  42. SwedishPoster says:

    Wennberg could be a smart pick up, not scoring enough 5v5 to be the top 6 guy I’m sure CBJ was gunning for but lower in the lineup he certainly has enough skill offensively to be worth while, solid defense, good both on the PK and as a set up guy on the PP.
    If he could be more of a threat to shoot from the outside he’d at least be a #2C, now he’s very much a playmaker and it limits his efficency quite a bit especially since he lacks creativity to be a truly great playmaker, good vision but doesn’t create his own openings with enough consistency.
    Still a fine NHLer and I also think there might be more to him than he’s shown the last few years since it’s pretty clear that he hates playing for Tortorella, other than some minor conflict a couple of seasons ago he hasn’t been very open about it but if you read between the lines, especially in swedish interviews, it’s obvious they weren’t a match.

  43. Durag says:

    Fun to remember those years that we had zero RHD depth and also that we traded Petry and Schultz in consecutive years 🙂

  44. godot10 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Wennberg could be a smart pick up, not scoring enough 5v5 to be the top 6 guy I’m sure CBJ was gunning for but lower in the lineup he certainly has enough skill offensively to be worth while, solid defense, good both on the PK and as a set up guy on the PP.
    If he could be more of a threat to shoot from the outside he’d at least be a #2C, now he’s very much a playmaker and it limits his efficency quite a bit especially since he lacks creativity to be a truly great playmaker, good vision but doesn’t create his own openings with enough consistency.
    Still a fine NHLer and I also think there might be more to him than he’s shown the last few years since it’s pretty clear that he hates playing for Tortorella, other than some minor conflict a couple of seasons ago he hasn’t been very open about it but if you read between the lines, especially in swedish interviews, it’s obvious they weren’t a match.

    If the OIlers could trade Kassian or Neal for him (modulo stuff), I would do the deal. He might be a good left wing for McDavid.

    Trade Kassian for Wennberg.
    Trade Neal for Turris (Nashville retains 10%)

  45. YKOil says:

    You know, maybe just to be contrary, but if I was a GM that was NOT buying out Neal… I would have considered a Neal for Ryan trade if it brought back a decent draft pick kicker (2nd rounder).

    Would have to look at all the fancies but two years versus three years holds some appeal.

    That said,interesting play by Ottawa IF they had the cash to take advantage of all that cap space, hell, now they will need to sign over $21 million in contracts JUST to reach the Cap floor. I realize Cap cash isn’t the same as hard cash but that is more action that I thought them capable. Be wild if this is the year Ottawa goes hard to build a contender.

    Ottawa remains a bit of a weird duck comparative to other teams.

  46. YKOil says:

    Wennberg, eh? (Looks over in Woodguy’s direction)

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Too slow.He is James Neal.We have Neal and Chiasson already.How many of those guys can one have?

    Chiasson is being traded for Bjork and Neal for OEL – please keep up…..

  48. Ryan says:

    YKOil:
    You know, maybe just to be contrary, but if I was a GM that was NOT buying out Neal… I would have considered a Neal for Ryan trade if it brought back a decent draft pick kicker (2nd rounder).

    Would have to look at all the fancies but two years versus three years holds some appeal.

    That said,interesting play by Ottawa IF they had the cash to take advantage of all that cap space, hell, now they will need to sign over $21 million in contracts JUST to reach the Cap floor. I realize Cap cash isn’t the same as hard cash but that is more action that I thought them capable. Be wild if this is the year Ottawa goes hard to build a contender.

    Ottawa remains a bit of a weird duck comparative to other teams.

    It’s funny, I was wondering the same thing.

    It was kind of a pointless buyout for them unless they are trying compete.

    Between their cap space and ridiculous stockpile of draft picks, they could make a run for the cup next year if they wanted to spend money, lol.

  49. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Chiasson is being traded for Bjork and Neal for OEL – please keep up…..

    I can keep up to Bobby Ryan. That’s the problem.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody centered the 1st line for Dorinburn in their exhibition game today – no point in a 4-1 loss.

    Benson did have an assist in a 3-2 loss in his first game for the GCK Lions the other day (exhibition).

    Blumel had an assist, was plus 2 with 3 shots on goal in 16:24 of ice for Pardubice today.

  51. TheGreatBigMac says:

    If JP signs and we have 6RW, sounds like one too many. What are the good options, do we just leave Russell overseas / in Bakersfield. The Bjork – Chaisson deal sounds nice if Boston goes for it.

    I like Grabner, he’s older but can still score. He had 9 goals (6 shorthanded) last year on 41 games and 3 more in the playoffs. I wonder if we can get him from AZ for Chaisson.

  52. TheGreatBigMac says:

    TheGreatBigMac,

    Nevermind, the 9 goals was from 18/19, Grabner he slowed down more this year, probably not worth it. Sorry for the spam.

  53. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Can Blumel be the next Pardubice Prince™?

  54. jp says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    TheGreatBigMac,

    Nevermind, the 9 goals was from 18/19, Grabner he slowed down more this year, probably not worth it.Sorry for the spam.

    Grabner is not spam.

    8 goals this season in limited minutes. His goals/60 was still at a top line rate.

    Kills penalties and plays difficult minutes.

    I think he’s be a great pickup. Ideally for Russell (the elder), which would save the Oilers cap space and the Coyotes more actual $$ than Chiasson would.

  55. Woogie63 says:

    dustrock: James Dolan banned Frank Isola from MSG because he was too critical of Dolan and the Knicks.

    Dan Snyder banned all MSM Washington reporters and set up his own “Washington Red____ Press” team to do fluff pieces on the team and players.

    Owners can control access, and for the Edmonton MSM reporters, if they’re going to be too critical, their access will be curtailed.

    This is why we need the Allan Mitchells and Jonathan Willises, who don’t have a stake in access, to more accurately report on what’s happening.

    Gregor probably comes the closest at actually asking critical questions, and Matty and Jones are mostly just mailing it in these days.

    I like Rishaug but he is very-pro team.DNB is young but doing a pretty good job I think.

    Oh I didn’t mention David Staples.

    Super tough job to do well.

  56. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    YKOil: Woodg

    I’m not Woodguy, but:

    Wennberg the last 2 years (to exclude a possible outlier season in 2017-18)
    1.18 P/60

    relFF% +1.02
    relGF% -5.25
    relxGF% -1..63
    relHDCF% -2.66

    DFF%RC Vs Elites +0.46 (17GF 15GA) 30.4% of TOI
    DFF%RC Vs Middle -1.11 (22GF 24GA) 40.5% of TOI
    DFF%RC Vs Grits -5.92 (22GF 20GA) 29.1% of TOI

    _________________________

    Wennberg the last 3 years (to include the outlier)
    1.36 P/60

    relFF% +2.05
    relGF% +3.41
    relxGF% +0.71
    relHDCF% -0.04

    DFF%RC Vs Elites +2.42 (37GF 26GA) 31.3% of TOI
    DFF%RC Vs Middle +0.44 (36GF 34GA) 39.3% of TOI
    DFF%RC Vs Grits -2.24 (44GF 30GA) 29.4% of TOI

    _________________________

    Seems like he’d at least be a solid fit on initial analysis. There’s some more depth to go over- particularly breaking down whether his shortcomings in goal share/chance share come through in his offense or his defense & PK numbers.

  57. McSorley33 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just listened to an extensive interview with JD Burke of Elite Prospects.

    Among many other things, he mentioned that the USHL has now surpassed the QMJHL as a development league.

    He wouldn’t reveal the proprietary information that has led to that conclusion but said the development path from the USHL through the NCAA to the NHL is quickly gaining ground on the traditional route from junior hockey through the AHL to the NHL.

    He suggested only a few teams have capitalized on this “market inefficiency “ and its paying off for them in a big way.

    Very interesting…a possible reason why Lavoie fell last year?

    Maybe

  58. McSorley33 says:

    Durag:
    Fun to remember those years that we had zero RHD depth and also that we traded Petry and Schultz in consecutive years

    Incredible……..we are here.

    It has been that kind of a decade for the Oil.

  59. Harpers Hair says:

    McSorley33: Very interesting…a possible reason why Lavoie fell last year?

    Maybe

    An interesting side note…

    Judd Brackett who left the Canucks to take over as head scout in Minnesota is widely credited with mining the NCAA for years.

    Currently, 8 players on the Canucks roster are NCAA alumni with a couple more high end prospects still in school.

    I would imagine the Wild will shift their drafting strategy to match.

  60. Jordan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t really want to re-start yesterday’s convo, but the Oil did pick another real NHL prospect in the 6th round of the 2015 draft…..

    Grumble, grumble… …Marino… grumble…. Snore….

    Looks like the beast has stayed asleep today…

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Can Blumel be the next Pardubice Prince™?

    Next year is going to be his breakout year for sure…..

  62. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Durag:
    Fun to remember those years that we had zero RHD depth and also that we traded Petry and Schultz in consecutive years

    Yup. Fascinating management strategy.
    The nadir of the DoD??

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    While I don’t really think the Sens will have trouble getting to the cap floor (they need to add apx $23M in cap but 14 open roster spots), with Hainsy and Borowiecki both moving on, even if Brannstrom is ready, they’ve got to have some interest in Kris Russell, right?

    I think he would help their lineup and he fits their financial structure.

    Any chance Ottawa isn’t on his no-trade list and, if it is, can he be convinced to waive.

    Tierney, Brown and Duclair are all RFAs that could help this team.

    Financial matters aside, the Oilers would need to add but, with financial matters taken in to account, maybe not much.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Wow, Wennberg at 3C would be near perfect.

    In 10 postseason games he went 3-2-5. At ~$2.5M or less he’d fit the budget and the role.

    This offseason it might be sensible to not qualify Athanasiou, buy-out Neal, and offer a pick for someone to take Kris Russell. The amount of discounted true-NHL talent might be worth all the paper cuts.

    Of course, we know that Holland buying out Neal is “highly unlikely” and Holland is looking to acquire picks, not move picks for cap dumps……

  65. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    While I don’t really think the Sens will have trouble getting to the cap floor (they need to add apx $23M in cap but 14 open roster spots), with Hainsy and Borowiecki both moving on, even if Brannstrom is ready, they’ve got to have some interest in Kris Russell, right?

    I think he would help their lineup and he fits their financial structure.

    Any chance Ottawa isn’t on his no-trade list and, if it is, can he be convinced to waive.

    Tierney, Brown and Duclair are all RFAs that could help this team.

    Financial matters aside, the Oilers would need to add but, with financial matters taken in to account, maybe not much.

    The Senators will have the chance to pick from a large number of RFAs who don’t get qualified.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Woogie63: This week, a significant riff between Maroon and Lucic was reported by an out of market sports reporter. Clearly Matty, Rishaug, Spector (reports with editors) knew about the conflict, but reported nothing.
    Edmonton is a small market, with lots of rumours and hockey player stories in the water cooler conversations, however I can’t remember one story researched, investigated and then reported.

    How exactly does Kevin Lowe still have a job?

    At what point do McDavid/Draisaitl have “that talk” with their agents, re enquiring about other NHL destinations? Still not a single bona fide puck moving defenceman on the team with the result of literally wasting away their careers as a direct consequence.

  67. hunter1909 says:

    The most 2000’s Oilers play ever: Nurse gliding end to end with the puck until he reaches the opposition zone, but before he loses his head passes the puck to George Laraque who proceeds to hog the puck in the corner for the next 30 seconds.

  68. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: The Senators will have the chance to pick from a large number of RFAs who don’t get qualified.

    Those RFA’s won’t provide them with $4M worth of cap hit for $1.5M in cash.

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis,

    They won’t need the cap hit and they already have three legit LHD in Chabot, Rielly and Wolanin on the roster.

    Their RD is thinner but Brannstrom and Lassi Thomson are likely ready.

  70. Jiminey says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    While I don’t really think the Sens will have trouble getting to the cap floor (they need to add apx $23M in cap but 14 open roster spots), with Hainsy and Borowiecki both moving on, even if Brannstrom is ready, they’ve got to have some interest in Kris Russell, right?

    I think he would help their lineup and he fits their financial structure.

    Any chance Ottawa isn’t on his no-trade list and, if it is, can he be convinced to waive.

    Tierney, Brown and Duclair are all RFAs that could help this team.

    Financial matters aside, the Oilers would need to add but, with financial matters taken in to account, maybe not much.

    If you were in Kris Russel’s shoes, would you put Ottawa on your no trade list?

    If I was in Kris Russel’s shoes, Ottawa would be number 1 on my no trade list! I cannot see anyone agreeing to being traded to a team that is a disaster in the front office (Ryan buyout is a head scratcher), plans to only get to the salary floor, and probably has little chance of competing to get into the playoffs next year.

    I agree though, Ottawa would be interested in him.

  71. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    While I don’t really think the Sens will have trouble getting to the cap floor (they need to add apx $23M in cap but 14 open roster spots), with Hainsy and Borowiecki both moving on, even if Brannstrom is ready, they’ve got to have some interest in Kris Russell, right?

    I think he would help their lineup and he fits their financial structure.

    Any chance Ottawa isn’t on his no-trade list and, if it is, can he be convinced to waive.

    Tierney, Brown and Duclair are all RFAs that could help this team.

    Financial matters aside, the Oilers would need to add but, with financial matters taken in to account, maybe not much.

    I think Benning is a better bet for Ottawa. They need right shot D.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Would Columbus be interested in Kassian?

    Maybe – what is your scouting report on Kassian that may interest them?

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I think Benning is a better bet for Ottawa.They need right shot D.

    I keep reading over and over that Russell can play the right side…….

    I would hope that Ottawa would prefer Benning over Russell but that doesn’t work for the Oilers given the player being acquired will be $3M plus.

    That’s the negotiation, Holland forces them to take the less value asset (Russell) and adds a piece, perhaps a 2021 pick (4th rounder given the Oilers don’t have a 2nd nor will they have a 3rd, likely).

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    Crazy how well the scouts did in 2015 despite losing the picks compared to our drafting history. Like the last quality 2nd rounder was Petry and they delivered Bear, Jones and Marino. Oilers really need to deliever in the later rounds here. Perhaps Konovalov can emerge.

    He is emerging in real time – I know, I’m pumping his tires quite a bit the last few weeks but I do think he’s a legit NHL option as soon as the 2021/22 season potentially – of course, if he keeps progressing as he is/has been.

  75. Oilpower says:

    Jiminey,

    Jiminey: If you were in Kris Russel’s shoes, would you put Ottawa on your no trade list?

    If I was in Kris Russel’s shoes, Ottawa would be number 1 on my no trade list! I cannot see anyone agreeing to being traded to a team that is a disaster in the front office (Ryan buyout is a head scratcher), plans to only get to the salary floor, and probably has little chance of competing to get into the playoffs next year.

    I agree though, Ottawa would be interested in him.

    he might be open to Ottawa this year what with having a young family and border crossings any Canadian team might look good

  76. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I keep reading over and over that Russell can play the right side…….

    I would hope that Ottawa would prefer Benning over Russell but that doesn’t work for the Oilers given the player being acquired will be $3M plus.

    That’s the negotiation, Holland forces them to take the less value asset (Russell) and adds a piece, perhaps a 2021 pick (4th rounder given the Oilers don’t have a 2nd nor will they have a 3rd, likely).

    There are currently 40 free agent RHD so I don’t think Ottawa will have trouble filling out their roster.

    They also have 20 picks in the next two drafts so they would regard another fourth round pick like pocket lint.

  77. jp says:

    hunter1909:
    The most 2000’s Oilers play ever: Nurse gliding end to end with the puck until he reaches the opposition zone, but before he loses his head passes the puck to George Laraque who proceeds to hog the puck in the corner for the next 30 seconds.

    I thought he was playing defense the whole time (I’m 90% serious).

  78. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: There are currently 40 free agent RHD so I don’t think Ottawa will have trouble filling out their roster.

    They also have 20 picks in the next two drafts so they would regard another fourth round pick like pocket lint.

    Team accumulated ridiculous number of draft picks.

    Ergo, they no longer value draft picks.

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Team accumulated ridiculous number of draft picks.

    Ergo, they no longer value draft picks.

    Adding another pick to an overflowing prospect system that already has high end prospects and another bunch on the way in the next two weeks wouldn’t excite me much.

    It certainly wouldn’t motivate me to take on another team’s garbage.

  80. Lowetide says:

    jp: I thought he was playing defense the whole time (I’m 90% serious).

    He was. Loved that fourth line with Devereaux-Dowd-Laraque. 500 miles from the Oilers net, Laraque played keepaway. What bad could happen? Awesome.

  81. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Adding another pick to an overflowing prospect system that already has high end prospects and another bunch on the way in the next two weeks wouldn’t excite me much.

    It certainly wouldn’t motivate me to take on another team’s garbage.

    Certainly that pick may not be enough to get that deal done.

    But suggesting a team that has set about accumulating picks over a prolonged period suddenly feels their prospect pool is overflowing and no longer values picks is rather strange logic.

  82. jp says:

    Lowetide: He was. Loved that fourth line with Devereaux-Dowd-Laraque. 500 miles from the Oilers net, Laraque played keepaway. What bad could happen? Awesome.

    Agreed. I’m not sure if NHL giveaway stats are available but I suspect Laraque didn’t have many.

    Those Oiler teams usually had good bottom 6s, just most often missing a 2nd line.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: It’s funny, I was wondering the same thing.

    It was kind of a pointless buyout for them unless they are trying compete.

    Between their cap space and ridiculous stockpile of draft picks, they could make a run for the cup next year if they wanted to spend money, lol.

    $7M (apx) in real dollars is not pointless to Melnyk I don’t think.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: There was a malware issue on the site that was redirecting traffic to a phishing site.

    I believe that Lowetide and Godaddy resolved that issue.

    I would recommend clearing your browser cache.

    Thanks for the tip.

    FYI – clearing the browser cache did NOT work for me.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    If JP signs and we have 6RW, sounds like one too many.What are the good options, do we just leave Russell overseas / in Bakersfield.The Bjork – Chaisson deal sounds nice if Boston goes for it.

    I like Grabner, he’s older but can still score.He had 9 goals (6 shorthanded) last year on 41 games and 3 more in the playoffs. I wonder if we can get him from AZ for Chaisson.

    Yes, Patrick Russell is the 14F at best – To the extent he’d knocked off the roster, he can start in Bakersfield (or the taxi squad) and be available for call-up (assuming he clears waivers).

    P. Russell and his signing is not a block to any other transaction.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Grabner is not spam.

    8 goals this season in limited minutes. His goals/60 was still at a top line rate.

    Kills penalties and plays difficult minutes.

    I think he’s be a great pickup. Ideally for Russell (the elder), which would save the Oilers cap space and the Coyotes more actual $$ than Chiasson would.

    I’d prefer to use Russell for the Tierney, Brown, Duclair acquisition but, if that fails, Grabner is not a terrible option.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The Senators will have the chance to pick from a large number of RFAs who don’t get qualified.

    Yes, and Russell at $1.5M (the cap hit of $4M for one year clearly doesn’t not inhibit them, may actually help them) would be of great value to them and potentially better than any other option then could sign for $1.5M for next season.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: How exactly does Kevin Lowe still have a job?

    At what point do McDavid/Draisaitl have “that talk” with their agents, re enquiring about other NHL destinations? Still not a single bona fide puck moving defenceman on the team with the result of literally wasting away their careers as a direct consequence.

    Kevin Lowe does not have a job in hockey ops

    I believe McDavid and Drai are both quite content with being Oilers.

    I guess what one considers a “bona fide puck moving d-man” is subjective so I can’t tell you that your opinion is wrong but i highly disagree.

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Certainly that pick may not be enough to get that deal done.

    But suggesting a team that has set about accumulating picks over a prolonged period suddenly feels their prospect pool is overflowing and no longer values picks is rather strange logic.

    Nothing strange about it.

    If you look closely at Ottawa’s prospect pool you would see they would need two AHL teams to accommodate them all after they’re done with this draft.

    They have seven picks in the first two rounds and another five in later rounds.

    They already have ready to graduate players in Norris, Formenton, Batherson, Brown, Abramov, Brannstrom and Thomson.

    Add to that players like Stutzel, Raymond and a later first round pick and whatever the 3 second round picks turn into and you have an embarrassment of riches.

    The possibility to fill current holes in Covid casualties to fill out the roster in the short term at bargain rates and they hardly need another draft pick.

  90. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kevin Lowe does not have a job in hockey ops

    I believe McDavid and Drai are both quite content with being Oilers.

    I guess what one considers a “bona fide puck moving d-man” is subjective so I can’t tell you that your opinion is wrong but i highly disagree.

    Why does Kevin Lowe attend the draft?

  91. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks for the tip.

    FYI – clearing the browser cache did NOT work for me.

    What issues are you still having?

    Clearing the browser cache fixed the malware homepage redirect issue for me.

    I still have to login in all of the time and answer basic math questions.

  92. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, and Russell at $1.5M (the cap hit of $4M for one year clearly doesn’t not inhibit them, may actually help them) would be of great value to them and potentially better than any other option then could sign for $1.5M for next season.

    Great value…heh.

    If he provided great value the Oilers would keep him.

    It’s much more likely they would be interested in someone like Tyson Barrie who is likely to take a huge haircut on his next contract…and that would provide great value.

  93. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: $7M (apx) in real dollars is not pointless to Melnyk I don’t think.

    OriginalPouzar: $7M (apx) in real dollars is not pointless to Melnyk I don’t think.

    I think it only saves them $2M real dollars (and that’s assuming they replace him on the roster for 2 years with someone making ~$800k).

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: There are currently 40 free agent RHD so I don’t think Ottawa will have trouble filling out their roster.

    They also have 20 picks in the next two drafts so they would regard another fourth round pick like pocket lint.

    I doubt there will be many d-men available for $1.5M that will provide more value for a young Sens’ team thank Kris Russell.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jiminey: If you were in Kris Russel’s shoes, would you put Ottawa on your no trade list?

    If I was in Kris Russel’s shoes, Ottawa would be number 1 on my no trade list! I cannot see anyone agreeing to being traded to a team that is a disaster in the front office (Ryan buyout is a head scratcher), plans to only get to the salary floor, and probably has little chance of competing to get into the playoffs next year.

    I agree though, Ottawa would be interested in him.

    My initial thought is that, yes, Rusty likely has Ottawa on his no-trade list and may simply say no to waiving that.

    On the other hand, I’m not in Rusty’s head and I don’t know what matters the most to him a year from free agency.

    He very well might be looking directly at that next contract and realizing he’d have a more substantial role in the nation’s capital – that may be very welcoming to him, not only for contract reasons but also because I think the dude just wants to play hockey and compete.

    On the other hand, maybe his desire for Western Canada take precedent for him and he won’t waive.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I doubt there will be many d-men available for $1.5M that will provide more value for a young Sens’ team thank Kris Russell.

    There only has to be one.

    And perhaps the Senators won’t be setting their sights so low.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Why does Kevin Lowe attend the draft?

    The same reason Katz’s kid attends the draft.

  98. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10: I think Benning is a better bet for Ottawa.They need right shot D.

    Could they fetch one of the Sens FOUR second round draft picks for his rights/trade???

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: What issues are you still having?

    Clearing the browser cache fixed the malware homepage redirect issue for me.

    I still have to login in all of the time and answer basic math questions.

    About 3/4 of the times when I try and post I get some screen asking me to put in my e-mail and other information in order to be unblocked to post.

    I have to log out and log back in prior to being able to post.

    Every once in a while I will be able to make consecutive posts without the issue but often every time.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is a paste of the white screen with message that I get:

    Access Denied

    Allow Request

    You have been blocked from entering information on this blog. In order to prevent this from happening in the future you may ask the owner to add your network address to a list that allows you full access.

    Please enter your email address and a short note requesting access here.
    e-mail for contact (required):
    message :

    Please prove you are not a robot.
    Enter the SUM of these two numbers: 7 + 8

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Great value…heh.

    If he provided great value the Oilers would keep him.

    It’s much more likely they would be interested in someone like Tyson Barrie who is likely to take a huge haircut on his next contract…and that would provide great value.

    $1.5M

    vs.

    $4M

    You do understand that the $4M cap hit is of little concern to the Sens – potentially a benefit, right?

    Yes, at a cap hit of $1.5M, Russell would be MUCH more valuable to the Oilers.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I think it only saves them $2M real dollars (and that’s assuming they replace him on the roster for 2 years with someone making ~$800k).

    The buyout costs the Sens $1.8M X 4.

  103. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: $1.5M

    vs.

    $4M

    You do understand that the $4M cap hit is of little concern to the Sens – potentially a benefit, right?

    Yes, at a cap hit of $1.5M, Russell would be MUCH more valuable to the Oilers.

    Well they should have thought of that before signing him to that contract.

    I know the cap hit is of no concern to the Senators but with the buyout of Ryan, the buyout of Phaneuf and the LTIR for Gaborik, the Sens have already got almost $10 million in dead money to get them to the floor…they hardly need more.

    The question then becomes, is Russell the answer for a team that is running Chabot, (who plays almost half the game) Reilly and Wolanin at LD or can they find a better player in free agency.

    That should be a no brainer and they certainly won’t have to give up a draft pick for the privilege.

    Perhaps, if the Oilers threw in a good prospect, the Sens might consider it but I doubt even that would interest them since they are so loaded already.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Well they should have thought of that before signing him to that contract.

    I know the cap hit is of no concern to the Senators but with the buyout of Ryan, the buyout of Phaneuf and the LTIR for Gaborik, the Sens have already got almost $10 million in dead money to get them to the floor…they hardly need more.

    The question then becomes, is Russell the answer for a team that is running Chabot, (who plays almost half the game) Reilly and Wolanin at LD or can they find a better player in free agency.

    That should be a no brainer and they certainly won’t have to give up a draft pick for the privilege.

    Perhaps, if the Oilers threw in a good prospect, the Sens might consider it but I doubt even that would interest them since they are so loaded already.

    What the eff does the first sentence have to do with the conversations – we have 3 years of consensus that the contract was not good – that is just you being a total ass.

    As I’ve already said, and you’ve read, the Sens likely won’t have an issue getting to the cap floor but they $4M is of absolute zero consequence to them – all that matters to them in this situation is the $1.5M of real money Russell is owned and Kris Russell is absolutely worth $1.5M and, no, I don’t think they could easily find better value in free agency – in particular with a player willing to sign with them.

    I’ve already acknowledged the Oilers would need to add a piece to the proposed trade.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Craig Smith’s agent is holding out for over $4M in free agency, well, he’ll likely be holding for a long time.

  106. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Phil Kemp – I have a feeling about this player and his ability to carve himself an NHL career – I’ve heard some VERY good things about his defending at the college level, one of the best in the nation, forces offences to change strategy…..

    Will he play hockey this year? No Ivy League and its his senior year.Will he lose his college eligibility and sign an AHL deal (if there is a place to play) or a European deal?

    Is he willing to sign a contract now or the future to be an Oiler? I’m always apprehensive about American players.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    I recall reading a piece about him earlier in the year and there was no indication that we had an issue with the Oilers’ org and even expressed that Bakersfield would be a good place for his development.

  108. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Here is a paste of the white screen with message that I get:

    Access Denied

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    What operating system are you using..ie: windows 10 or ?
    and what browser and version ie: Chrome v 85.0.4183.121

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kemp isn’t blind to the fact the Oiler organization’s strongest asset is its young defencemen.

    “(Evan) Bouchard is very talented, (Philip) Broberg too, (Dmitry) Samorukov is an outstanding young defenceman. They have a great defensive core on the AHL (American Hockey League) team. Be awesome to be a part of that. I think I could learn a lot and to be competing with them would be awesome,” said Kemp.

  110. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The buyout costs the Sens $1.8M X 4.

    Right, but they’re still paying him $4M in signing bonuses. Of his remaining $11M salary (after removing the signing bonuses) they still have to pay him $7.333M.

    So the Senators save a total of $3.667M, and also have to replace Ryan on the roster for 2 years. If they do that for $833k per year (not a given since most ELCs are more than that) then they save $2M real dollars.

    I dunno, the move doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Maybe the player wants to move on?

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: What operating system are you using..ie: windows 10 or ?
    and what browser and version ie: Chrome v 85.0.4183.121

    MacOS Mojavi 10.14.6

    Chrome Version 84.0.4147.125

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Right, but they’re still paying him $4M in signing bonuses. Of his remaining $11M salary (after removing the signing bonuses) they still have to pay him $7.333M.

    So the Senators save a total of $3.667M, and also have to replace Ryan on the roster for 2 years. If they do that for $833k per year (not a given since most ELCs are more than that) then they save $2M real dollars.

    I dunno, the move doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Maybe the player wants to move on?

    Right, the signing bonuses – thanks.

  113. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: MacOS Mojavi 10.14.6

    Chrome Version 84.0.4147.125

    That Mac should have come with Safari installed – try launching Safari (or Firefox if you have that installed) and login and browse the site for an hour…make a few posts and see if the problem persists

    That ‘white screen” you are getting is almost certainly a WordPress bounceback/error message, I’m suggesting you try another browser for a short time, and if the problem does not follow you to another browser, the problem would appear to be with your Chrome install

    Try uninstalling/reinstalling Chrome

  114. Jaxon says:

    Some interesting names on this list
    2018-2019 Season

    Player – 5v5 Goals/60
    Viktor Arvidsson – 1.85
    John Tavares – 1.58
    Brendan Gallagher – 1.55
    Jake Guentzel – 1.45
    Alex Ovechkin – 1.37
    Auston Matthews – 1.35
    Oliver Bjorkstrand – 1.35
    Jeff Skinner – 1.34
    Cam Atkinson – 1.3
    Tyler Johnson – 1.3
    Alex DeBrincat – 1.29
    Jakub Vrana – 1.28
    Brett Connolly – 1.27
    David Pastrnak – 1.27
    Steven Stamkos – 1.23
    Leon Draisaitl – 1.22
    Andreas Athanasiou – 1.22
    Timo Meier – 1.21
    Matt Duchene – 1.21
    Jake DeBrusk – 1.18
    Nikita Kucherov – 1.17
    Joe Pavelski – 1.17
    Max Domi – 1.16
    Evander Kane – 1.15
    Mark Stone – 1.12

  115. Gerta Rauss says:

    Seeing that look on Corey Perry’s face was priceless

  116. Jaxon says:

    Personally, I think it was a penalty. Benn’s knee swept forward to take out his leg.

  117. geowal says:

    Patrick Maroon with the screen on the OT winner

  118. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d prefer to use Russell for the Tierney, Brown, Duclair acquisition but, if that fails, Grabner is not a terrible option.

    I think Grabner has a great chance to be more useful to the Oilers next season than Russell. And he has a lower cap hit (while also being far cheaper for Arizona, hence their potential interest). Win win on Grabner for Russell in isolation IMO.

    If you can use Russell as the larger piece in a package to get one of those players from Ottawa then yeah sure, that would be great. I don’t think that’s at all likely though, and IIRC you yourself have argued a clean disposition of Russell is unlikely to happen. I’m not sure why Russell and a 4th round pick would get the Oilers an RFA who has real value. If nothing else another team could beat that offer I’d think.

    Anyway, absolutely great if Holland can pull it off but I’d file it in the “unlikely” category. Add Russell’s willingness to go to Ottawa as another point on the “unlikely” side of the ledger.

  119. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: That Mac should have come with Safari installed – try launching Safari (or Firefox if you have that installed) and login and browse the site for an hour…make a few posts and see if the problem persists

    That ‘white screen” you are getting is almost certainly a WordPress bounceback/error message, I’m suggesting you try another browser for a short time, and if the problem does not follow you to another browser, the problem would appear to be with your Chrome install

    Try uninstalling/reinstalling Chrome

    Is not everyone getting that white screen? I assumed it was standard.

    I’m trying now on Firefox (my main browser, but I’d switched to Chrome for Lowetide only some time ago because Firefox was giving issues).

  120. jp says:

    jp,

    Sorry, switched to Safari. And so far so good.

    IIRC the issue that caused me to switch to from Firefox in the first place was every time I refreshed the page I was logged out. That happened on Firefox but not on Safari (though I still get logged out every time I refresh on my phone using Safari).

  121. Jaxon says:

    Athanasiou is also still in the top 60 in 5v5 Goals/60 in the past 3 seasons even with his recent down year. In those years, he’s also top 71 in goals scored at 5v5 with 41. Tied with Dylan Larkin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Patrice Bergeron, and Kyle Palmieri. All top-line numbers delivered mostly form the 2nd and 3rd lines. That sounds like a great match for a team that has trouble scoring from the 3rd and 4th lines. And if he ever develops some chemistry with McDavid it could spell a 30 to 40 goal scorer. I really hope they find a way to keep him.

  122. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp: Is not everyone getting that white screen? I assumed it was standard.

    I’m trying now on Firefox (my main browser, but I’d switched to Chrome for Lowetide only some time ago because Firefox was giving issues).

    Not me

    I’m running Win10 with Chrome

    I’ve been business as usual for weeks…we all lost the main page photo and the edit/delete button on the same day when WordPress did an update

    I’ve gotten the white screen before, but it’s always been a benign bounce back ie: server too busy or error data base connection, but not the flat out denial of access and then a challenge format ie:”enter your email address and answer this basic math question” – that was news to me tonight

    What operating system are you using..?

  123. Gerta Rauss says:

    And I tried to reply above to JP and I got the white screen challenging me to enter my email address

    Hilarious

    I guess posting a couple times a month is the answer LoL

  124. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Kemp isn’t blind to the fact the Oiler organization’s strongest asset is its young defencemen.

    “(Evan) Bouchard is very talented, (Philip) Broberg too, (Dmitry) Samorukov is an outstanding young defenceman. They have a great defensive core on the AHL (American Hockey League) team. Be awesome to be a part of that. I think I could learn a lot and to be competing with them would be awesome,” said Kemp.

    We are still short of RHD so Kemp hopefully sees this as an opportunity to sign now.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: That Mac should have come with Safari installed – try launching Safari (or Firefox if you have that installed) and login and browse the site for an hour…make a few posts and see if the problem persists

    That ‘white screen” you are getting is almost certainly a WordPress bounceback/error message, I’m suggesting you try another browser for a short time, and if the problem does not follow you to another browser, the problem would appear to be with your Chrome install

    Try uninstalling/reinstalling Chrome

    I’ll give it a shot but, when the issue first started happening, I switched to Firefox and it happened right away.

    Boom: Just happened with Firefox

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Some interesting names on this list
    2018-2019 Season

    Player–5v5 Goals/60
    Viktor Arvidsson–1.85
    John Tavares–1.58
    Brendan Gallagher–1.55
    Jake Guentzel–1.45
    Alex Ovechkin–1.37
    Auston Matthews–1.35
    Oliver Bjorkstrand–1.35
    Jeff Skinner–1.34
    Cam Atkinson–1.3
    Tyler Johnson–1.3
    Alex DeBrincat–1.29
    Jakub Vrana–1.28
    Brett Connolly–1.27
    David Pastrnak–1.27
    Steven Stamkos–1.23
    Leon Draisaitl–1.22
    Andreas Athanasiou–1.22
    Timo Meier–1.21
    Matt Duchene–1.21
    Jake DeBrusk–1.18
    Nikita Kucherov–1.17
    Joe Pavelski–1.17
    Max Domi–1.16
    Evander Kane–1.15
    Mark Stone–1.12

    and AA was 1.8 P/60 or above for four straight seasons prior to this past one – often with middle six linemates.

    Bad seasons happen.

    Far from a perfect player, and who the heck knows where he’ll fit, but I’m not sure there will be much more potential production available at his price-point. Driving zone entry, possession and offence from a 3rd line has material value.

  127. pts2pndr says:

    jp:
    jp,

    Sorry, switched to Safari. And so far so good.

    IIRC the issue that caused me to switch to from Firefox in the first place was every time I refreshed the page I was logged out. That happened on Firefox but not on Safari (though I still get logged out every time I refresh on my phone using Safari).

    I have am using safari and getting the same white screen occasionally starting yesterday. Answered the math question and bingo I’m back. Occasionally get browser 583 unavailable message as well. Sometimes takes two or three tries in a 10 – 15 minute window to get past that.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I think Grabner has a great chance to be more useful to the Oilers next season than Russell. And he has a lower cap hit (while also being far cheaper for Arizona, hence their potential interest). Win win on Grabner for Russell in isolation IMO.

    If you can use Russell as the larger piece in a package to get one of those players from Ottawa then yeah sure, that would be great. I don’t think that’s at all likely though, and IIRC you yourself have argued a clean disposition of Russell is unlikely to happen. I’m not sure why Russell and a 4th round pick would get the Oilers an RFA who has real value. If nothing else another team could beat that offer I’d think.

    Anyway, absolutely great if Holland can pull it off but I’d file it in the “unlikely” category. Add Russell’s willingness to go to Ottawa as another point on the “unlikely” side of the ledger.

    Maybe the 2nd piece needs to be a bit more material but the reason would be finances and, for Ottawa, Russell is a good value for $1.5M.

    I’m not sure Russell would be any more interested in going to Arizona than Ottawa – ya, its in the west and more “cowboy” but its also in the US which is likely less appealing to Russell than ever before.

  129. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ll give it a shot but, when the issue first started happening, I switched to Firefox and it happened right away.

    Boom: Just happened with Firefox

    Yeah, it just happened to me for the first time

    I noticed a banner heading above the URL address window and the banner said “stop spammers”…it appears to be some kind of anti spam mechanism within WordPress and it’s threshold for detecting spam – or what it perceives as spam – isn’t set correctly

    I don’t post very often – and rarely post more that once or twice a day – and that would appear why I had never seen it. I posted 4 or 5 times tonight in a short span of time and it detected me as spam

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: We are still short of RHD so Kemp hopefully sees this as an opportunity to sign now.

    I was thinking an AHL deal for Kemp but who knows what the AHL looks like this year (if at all). He’s got one year left of school – he may not want to give up the scholarship benefits without a real place to play.

  131. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    And I tried to reply above to JP and I got the white screen challenging me to enter my email address

    Hilarious

    I guess posting a couple times a month is the answer LoL

    This IS hilarious.

    I’m back on Safari now. The refresh/logout issue with Firefox returned (I was able to refresh once while still being logged in, then the next time I wasn’t even able to stay logged in on one refresh – ie, I can’t post at all, period). On my phone at least I get one refresh where I can reply/post (with Safari), on laptop (with Firefox) I get zero. Safari generally allows me to refresh/post and not get logged out on my laptop.

    The white screen/challenge is semi-random. I’ve posted twice in succession at times and not gotten the challenge at least one of then. Also get it other times. Not sure the rule.

    I’m running Mac Catalina 10.15.7

    Firefox 81.0 (64 bit) – Firefox has had persistent issues for 6(?) months or more

    Safari 14.0 – has been generally good on Mac Catalina until a couple days ago when the challenge started. (also had the homepage pics and edit/delete disappear when others did).

  132. jp says:

    Jaxon:
    Some interesting names on this list
    2018-2019 Season

    Player–5v5 Goals/60
    Viktor Arvidsson–1.85
    John Tavares–1.58
    Brendan Gallagher–1.55
    Jake Guentzel–1.45
    Alex Ovechkin–1.37
    Auston Matthews–1.35
    Oliver Bjorkstrand–1.35
    Jeff Skinner–1.34
    Cam Atkinson–1.3
    Tyler Johnson–1.3
    Alex DeBrincat–1.29
    Jakub Vrana–1.28
    Brett Connolly–1.27
    David Pastrnak–1.27
    Steven Stamkos–1.23
    Leon Draisaitl–1.22
    Andreas Athanasiou–1.22
    Timo Meier–1.21
    Matt Duchene–1.21
    Jake DeBrusk–1.18
    Nikita Kucherov–1.17
    Joe Pavelski–1.17
    Max Domi–1.16
    Evander Kane–1.15
    Mark Stone–1.12

    Jaxon:
    Athanasiou is also still in the top 60 in 5v5 Goals/60 in the past 3 seasons even with his recent down year.In those years, he’s also top 71 in goals scored at 5v5 with 41. Tied with Dylan Larkin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Patrice Bergeron, and Kyle Palmieri.All top-line numbers delivered mostly form the 2nd and 3rd lines. That sounds like a great match for a team that has trouble scoring from the 3rd and 4th lines. And if he ever develops some chemistry with McDavid it could spell a 30 to 40 goal scorer. I really hope they find a way to keep him.

    Actually reading the list was good, glad I did.

    Yeah AA comes up in places you wouldn’t expect. I’d like to see him signed as well (though I’d also really like some $$ spent on a 3C!).

    FWIW, Grabner shows up tied for 100th in G/60 over the 3 years, tied for 81st this season.

  133. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp: This IS hilarious.

    I’m back on Safari now. The refresh/logout issue with Firefox returned (I was able to refresh once while still being logged in, then the next time I wasn’t even able to stay logged in on one refresh – ie, I can’t post at all, period). On my phone at least I get one refresh where I can reply/post (with Safari), on laptop (with Firefox) I get zero. Safari generally allows me to refresh/post and not get logged out on my laptop.

    The white screen/challenge is semi-random. I’ve posted twice in succession at times and not gotten the challenge at least one of then. Also get it other times. Not sure the rule.

    I’m running Mac Catalina 10.15.7

    Firefox 81.0 (64 bit) – Firefox has had persistent issues for 6(?) months or more

    Safari 14.0 – has been generally good on Mac Catalina until a couple days ago when the challenge started. (also had the homepage pics and edit/delete disappear when others did).

    This is great stuff JP

    Our host mentioned the other night he is aware of the problems and is working toward a solution

    We’ll all just have to be patient until then

  134. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Nothing strange about it.

    If you look closelyat Ottawa’s prospect pool you would see they would need two AHL teams to accommodate them all after they’re done with this draft.

    They have seven picks in the first two rounds and another five in later rounds.

    They already have ready to graduate players in Norris, Formenton, Batherson, Brown, Abramov, Brannstrom and Thomson.

    Add to that players like Stutzel, Raymond and a later first round pick and whatever the 3 second round picks turn into and you have an embarrassment of riches.

    The possibility to fill current holes in Covid casualties to fill out the roster in the short term at bargain rates and they hardly need another draft pick.

    No, I have no idea why the Senators having graduating players would affect their interest in stockpiling picks, as they’ve been doing for a while now. You might recall that not all draft picks turn into NHL players.

    You’re saying pick #20 over 2 drafts was important to the Senators, but pick #21 wouldn’t be? That would be strange, no?

    Also, having the cap space (which by all accounts they aren’t wiling to spend) to sign UFAs has literally zero bearing on any draft picks they’re bringing into the system.

  135. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: This is great stuff JP

    Our host mentioned the other night he is aware of the problems and is working toward a solution

    We’ll all just have to be patient until then

    Yes, absolutely.

    LT: worth the wait. 🙂

  136. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe the 2nd piece needs to be a bit more material but the reason would be finances and, for Ottawa, Russell is a good value for $1.5M.

    I’m not sure Russell would be any more interested in going to Arizona than Ottawa – ya, its in the west and more “cowboy” but its also in the US which is likely less appealing to Russell than ever before.

    It sounds like the Sens won’t have much/any trouble reaching the cap floor so Russell doesn’t have value beyond his on ice play @ $1.5M.

    He’s fine for that number but I also don’t see the Sens paying anything of much value for him. I don’t think they’d mind taking him but (IMO) he’d be in range of neutral value. So the 2nd piece (IMO) would need to be very material.

    On Russell’s trade list, any word on when those needs to be submitted? I guess it wasn’t already in June/July as it should have been?

    Who knows what Russell really wants, but even if he wants to stay in Canada above all, he needs to pick 15 teams (ie – 9 US teams as well as at the 6 Canadian teams he doesn’t already play for).

  137. jp says:

    Ryan:

    I ran the CTOI% vs elites for defensemen against their overall 5v5 SV%
    For the Oilers the correlation was -.736 which is quite robust.
    CTOI% against elites is certainly better than using OTF shifts/60
    Unfortunately, I don’t know how to code to scrape data, the Woodmoney tables only show the on ice SV% against elites (vs overall 5v5 sv%)
    I can’t run the league wide analysis without manually inputting the overall 5v5 SV% which would take forever.

    Inspired by this, but unable to actually post on the blog last night… I don’t code either, but you can download (from PuckIQ) all D vs elites (to get TOI% vs elites) and all D vs all comp (to get the rest of the numbers). Then if you sort by name the players in both lists all line up (I used 500+ minutes, ended up with 195 dmen).

    I thought you were on to something with TOI vs elites effecting SV%/PDO, but maybe not?

    The R-squared for the correlations of %TOI Elites and:

    SH%ON was 0.00861
    SV%ON was -0.01508
    PDO was 0.00014

    The ultimate outlier was Zdeno Chara who lead the entire league with 46.4% of his TOI vs elites but also had a .941 on ice SV% (10th) and a 1042 PDO (8th).

    I should note I’m surprised how weak these R-sq numbers are based on what the correlations seemed to show by eye (I’d have thought the SV% ON was 0.15 rather than 0.015 which kinda changes things).

    (I just used Excel and the “add trend line”, as well as “show R-squared” function for this – did you do something different?)

    Ryan: Required reading on the topic for JP tonight.

    On this, I haven’t forgotten that article.

    I’m still 100% convinced that defensemen don’t control on ice SV% in the vast majority of cases.

    But if you’ll recall this all started a couple of years ago with the rumours connecting Justin Faulk to the Oilers. The discussion (I think) was PDO and after our exchange Faulk promptly had the first even PDO season of his career. I felt alright, but then he followed up his “correction to the meat” with the worst PDO on the Blues this season (by far). His PDO was 984, the next worst Dman was 1008 (and aside from Faulk the other 6 D ranged from 1008 to 1048 PDO).

    That’s the kind of thing that makes me wonder if there ARE outliers who can actually affect SV%/PDO. Klefbom also fits that profile, having 1 season with a PDO above even, and actually zero at/above his teammates (the whole team was magic in 16-17).

    Whether or not it’s true it does make me wonder. And as I said a few days ago, I just don’t feel OK giving Klefbom full credit for his SF% or DFF% when his GF% hasn’t followed essentially any year. Maybe it will going forward, but there are seeds of doubt.

  138. hunter1909 says:

    jp: The white screen/challenge is semi-random. I’ve posted twice in succession at times and not gotten the challenge at least one of then. Also get it other times. Not sure the rule.

    It’s ominous when you first experience it.

    It’s like “You are a loser…prepare to fuck off from Lowetide forever” kind of stuff.

    hint: just add up the numbers and you should be good to go lol

  139. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: About 3/4 of the times when I try and post I get some screen asking me to put in my e-mail and other information in order to be unblocked to post.

    I have to log out and log back in prior to being able to post.

    Every once in a while I will be able to make consecutive posts without the issue but often every time.

    That’s a different issue.

    I think we all have that now.

    It started after Lowetide got off the phone with Godaddy.

    It’s some sort of WorsPress security plugin that was added due to the prior Malware issue.

  140. Ryan says:

    jp: Inspired by this, but unable to actually post on the blog last night… I don’t code either, but you can download (from PuckIQ) all D vs elites (to get TOI% vs elites) and all D vs all comp (to get the rest of the numbers). Then if you sort by name the players in both lists all line up (I used 500+ minutes, ended up with 195 dmen).

    I thought you were on to something with TOI vs elites effecting SV%/PDO, but maybe not?

    The R-squared for the correlations of %TOI Elites and:

    SH%ON was 0.00861
    SV%ON was -0.01508
    PDO was 0.00014

    The ultimate outlier was Zdeno Chara who lead the entire league with 46.4% of his TOI vs elites but also had a .941 on ice SV% (10th) and a 1042 PDO (8th).

    I should note I’m surprised how weak these R-sq numbers are based on what the correlations seemed to show by eye (I’d have thought theSV% ON was 0.15 rather than 0.015 which kinda changes things).

    (I just used Excel and the “add trend line”, as well as “show R-squared” function for this – did you do something different?)

    On this, I haven’t forgotten that article.

    I’m still 100% convinced that defensemen don’t control on ice SV% in the vast majority of cases.

    But if you’ll recall this all started a couple of years ago with the rumours connecting Justin Faulk to the Oilers. The discussion (I think) was PDO and after our exchange Faulk promptly had the first even PDO season of his career. I felt alright, but then he followed up his “correction to the meat” with the worst PDO on the Blues this season (by far). His PDO was 984, the next worst Dman was 1008 (and aside from Faulk the other 6 D ranged from 1008 to 1048 PDO).

    That’s the kind of thing that makes me wonder if there ARE outliers who can actually affect SV%/PDO.Klefbom also fits that profile, having 1 season with a PDO above even, and actually zero at/above his teammates (the whole team was magic in 16-17).

    Whether or not it’s true it does make me wonder. And as I said a few days ago, I just don’t feel OK giving Klefbom full credit for his SF% or DFF% when his GF% hasn’t followed essentially any year. Maybe it will going forward, but there are seeds of doubt.

    I had considered doing the same thing for Puckiq in terms of sorting alphabetically and running vs elites and all.

    How did you solve the time filter issue?

    I.e. if you filter defensemen who play 500 min 5v5 against all competition, you can’t also use a 509 min filter vs elites.

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