Trade winds blowing in the days before a draft are an annual rite of summer in Edmonton, so seeing those same winds in September (soon to be October) should come as no surprise. This year’s rumours are a ton of fun. Just like 2013.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Who will be available if the Oilers pick at No. 14?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
DRAFT WEEK 2013
The following appeared on this blog in the days leading up to the 2013 draft.
(Friday) Apparently the Oilers are in on every possible transaction. One gets the feeling it could be an active night. Picks and prospects and lord knows what else heading out, actual NHL players coming in. AND a goalie?
The Oilers off-season moves so far (firing Steve Tambellini, MacT installed as GM, Eakins new head coach, Keith Acton added to the coaching staff, signing Anton Belov, saying goodbye to Tambellini’s free agents) should have several additions by this time Monday afternoon.
Rumors have the Oilers heavily involved in conversations over Braydon Coburn, Cory Schneider and Cal Clutterbuck. These could be the final hours for Shawn Horcoff as an Oiler, for Ales Hemsky too although reports suggest that’s unlikely this weekend. The Gagner contract progresses, no one mentions the young speed demon Paajarvi.
(Saturday) Frankly, I have no idea of what we can expect today. Simply put, the events of yesterday suggest that Craig MacTavish is going to upgrade goaltending first, and then look to defense and center. This goaltending position was mentioned in ‘the list’ but most Oiler fans felt it was a secondary task for this summer.
Cory Schneider will come at a dear price today, and he’s two years from unrestricted free agency. That means Craig MacTavish must be putting exceptional value on these next two years, and that of course means Coburn and Clutterbuck (should they become Oilers) will no doubt be joined by centermen and wingmen and possibly defensemen. I think we can assume Devan Dubnyk will be in the out basket in due course and maybe that happens today. Other names who could be with other teams today are Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Nick Schultz and Magnus Paajarvi. I don’t believe Sam Gagner is going to be dealt based on all we’ve heard, but I’ll include him here just in case.
Craig MacTavish said 8 or 9 roster spots could change. He was clear on Dubnyk, he was clear on Hemsky and Horcoff and Khabibulin and Peckham and Belanger and and and. Why then is it such a surprise to see Corey Schneider as the key piece to the puzzle?
I don’t like the deal. I think it lacks clarity based on the holes in the roster and it improves a position that is league average to maybe a little better, while the defense remains a mess and the center position terribly weak with Horcoff and Belanger about to make it weaker. I vow to wait until we see the full picture, but as it stands this trade (depending on assets sent) looks like a considerable overpay. Two seasons of a very good NHL goalie who lacks a long resume? The window is suddenly and unnecessarily shortened to two seasons.
Based on the rumors, picks #7, #37 and #56 may be off the board. If that happens, the Oilers would pick #128, #158 and #188. I’ll cover the draft stories all day today, but the afternoon session may be more about trades than picks. Edmonton’s lowest number of draft picks in one year is five (2006) when they drafted #45, #75, #133, #140 and #170. It’s kind of incredible that they found Jeff Petry and Theo Peckham that year.
HARVEST MOON 2013
#7 overall D Darnell Nurse (SS Marie, OHL) 68, 12-29-41. NHLE 4-11-15. I had him ranked No. 2 among OHL players and No. 9 overall. I count this as a risk averse selection, and McKenzie (#9) and Pronman (#11) agree. I think he’s going to be a good NHL player, making his living with EV and PK minutes.
#56 overall C Marc Olivier-Roy (Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL) 65, 29-38-67. NHLE 10-15-25. Offensive talent, fast skater, creative and an expert passer. Outstanding on the backcheck and has a strong 2-way reputation at this early age. Undersized (6.0, 180) but he’s an attractive center and a quality prospect. Enjoyed a terrific playoff (9, 5-11-16) and was 74, 34-49-83 overall this season. McKenzie (#59) plus Pronman (#70) had him in the range.
#83 overall C Bogdan Yakimov (Nizhnekamsk Russian Jr). 11, 6-7-13. Huge C (6.05. 200) described by one scouting service as “a thickly constructed specimen” which immediately makes me think of the Russian tank Andrei Kovalenko. Strong along the wall and effective at puck retrieval. Isn’t a finesse player. Pronman ranks him #73 (again in the range) and Kent Wilson suggests he’s ranked amidst a group of similar “power forward” prospects like John Hayden, Avery Peterson and Nick Moutrey among others.
#88 overall L Anton Slepyshev (UFA, KHL) 11, 4-2-6. NHLE 18-6-24. The most talented player taken in the draft today by the Oilers, Slepyshev is a brilliant hockey player. Pronman has him #45, meaning he’s an exceptional value selection. Pronman: He is an above-average skater, with agility and free movement, as his shiftiness makes him hard to check. He has a plus shot and he knows it, as his mentality is often shoot-first, even from distance. His physical game has progressed, and he has added strength since last season. He can protect pucks moderately well.
#94 overall R Jackson Houck (Vancouver, WHL). 69, 23-34-57. NHLE 8-12-20. Physical winger with good skills, footspeed is going to be his issue and he’s not a big prospect (6.0, 186). His father Paul was drafted by the Oilers in 1981. Houck sounds like a “tweener”, a modern Phil Cornet, but that’s on his draft day and there’s some range of skills here. Pronman has him #91, again in the range.
#96 overall C Kyle Platzer (London, OHL) 65, 5-17-22. NHLE 2-6-8. I had a hard time figuring this player out early on, his numbers are nothing much and he’s no Coke machine. Then I found this from Redline: Skating under the radar because of the embarrassment of riches in the two-time OHL champion London Knights. Although just 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, Platzer plays with energy and grit, embraces physical contact and doesn’t shy away from the greasy spots in the offensive zone. Platzer lacks elite upside at the NHL level, but is one of those character players who never stops moving his feet and competing.
#113th overall L Aidan Muir (Victoria Honda Midget) 37, 17-23-40. A project and a reach. Western College Hockey: He’s a decent skater for his size, though there is still some room for improvement. With his frame, there’s also the potential to add a little more strength. His biggest attribute is his grit and toughness in the dirty areas of the ice along the boards and in front of the net, and that he has the hands to make plays in tight spaces.
#128 overall L Evan Campbell (Langley, BCJHL). 51, 20-46-66 NHLE 5-10-15. 20 years old, 6.01, 175 and headed to U. Mass Lowell this fall or next. Definitely a reach pick.
#158 overall D Ben Betker (Everett, WHL). 61, 1-5-6 NHLE 0-2-2. Cody Nickolet says he’s a big, rangy physical defenseman. Needs to work on footspeed.
#188 overall C Greg Chase (Calgary, WHL). 69, 17-32-49. NHLE 6-11-17. Outstanding value pick, Pronman has him at #99. Pronman: Scouts praise his offensive mind and vision. He can slow the game down when he has the puck, hit targets through small lanes, and move the puck quickly when need be. He also has good hands, and when he is on, his offensive upside is apparent.
2020 VISION
The 2013 lead up to the draft reminds me very much of the current conditions. For those who don’t recall, Edmonton was contemplating Darnell Nurse and Valeri Nichushkin at the draft, but were also interested in trading for Cory Schneider from the Vancouver Canucks.
This morning, I think Oilers fans should be prepared for the 2020 draft to go off as projected (Nos. 14, 76, 138, 169, 200).
I also believe there’s a chance Edmonton drafts No. 76, 138, 169 and 200.
There’s a lot going on. Names that have been mentioned that included Edmonton in the last 24 hours are OEL and goalie Petr Mrazek have been tied to the Oilers. That would leave No. 3 center and scoring winger to address over the rest of the offseason.
PROJECTED ROSTER
I have just 22 names here, Holland would need to move Russell in order to get to a 23-man roster. I wouldn’t read too much into names that are missing, this was working the money more than the personnel. I’m not sure how you improve the forwards from here.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning with breaking news seemingly just around the corner. We hit the airwaves at 10 and roll to noon with the sun shining and the city warming up on another lovely fall day.
Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will discuss the Lightning Stanley Cup victory and the Oilers path forward.
Grant McCagg from Recrutes.ca will pop by to talk 2020 draft and his fascinating list.
Joe Osborne from OddsSharks will get us ready for the NBA Finals and the MLB playoffs.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio.
While I am in no means defending Harpers Hair or DSF or whatever they go by, his points are sometimes legitimate to the ongoing discussion whether they are meant to provoke or not and often HH posts links to current and relevant hockey news that I really appreciate. If you don’t agree with their remarks, don’t respond, but they are by no means cancerous to this site.
On a positive note, lots of Oilers players getting ready to start their seasons.
The KHL is well underway and the SHL has played a few games but Liiga, AIK and the Swiss, Austrian, etc. leagues are starting up today/tomorrow/Saturday.
I’m excied to watch a Sodertegle/Vasby AIK game tomorrow – ya, its come to that!
No, pursuant to the MOU for the CBA extension, the cap will not go below $81.5M but it doesn’t go above $82.5M until HRR gets back to $4.8B AND the Escrow Balance is paid off.
Sure, $4.8B revenues may be do-able in a few years if life gets back to somewhat normal but who knows about that Escrow Balance – in particular if they play significant games with limited fans in 2021 – that may make it worse.
Agreed. It may only be 21-22, 22-23 where the economic carnage of lack of gate is really seen. Is it possilble to see a cap decrease?? One wonders. There may be a plethora of cheap talent out there in next 18-24 months. Problem is, this so-called McDavid clock is ticking during that time.
Lol.
About Klefbom, Bouchard and 1st for OEL, this is NOT the off-season to be aggressive. There are red flags everywhere about the NHLs return to play. This time it’s less about safety and more about money. We may be headed for labour Armageddon. The NHL and the players came together quickly to finish the season and fulfill their TV contract but the next key is generating gate revenues. Apparently there is no agreement yet from the players to play for, say, 50% of their salary if there’s a 41 game season and the owners are not in a position to pay players for games that aren’t happening.
This nearly derailed baseball and its got way more of its revenue from TV than we do.
We already handed out two seconds for virtually nothing. We’ve got to go slow here and see the lay of the land.
2.75 more for RHD again both are paid more than I like. Again I would pay more for Doughty because he is better and he is RHD.
Clearly you didn’t.
I didn’t defend Ken Holland for any move he made.
Stop feeding the troll! The guy is cancerous to this site.
Certainly not $3M more value every season.
I understood it fine.
You’re carrying water for Ken Holland despite that signing and trading two second round picks for AA.
Read the post and understand it if you are going to respond to it.
I’m commenting he is a better Dmen. If you put CAP in I would take neither. Doughty is RHD that brings more value.
Klefbom, when healthy…well he isn’t healthy and until he returns from surgery and demonstrates he’s back to normal his contract is an anchor.
You may recall the last time needed surgery it took him an entire season to get back up to speed.
Now that he’s going to be 28 when he comes back, it’s likely his recovery will be slower.
He’s damaged goods.
Russell is what he is…an ongoing liability.
Harpers Hair,
Unfortunately for Arz, they are cap strapped and need to move salary/money…which means moving OEL at a lesser value to create space. Klef is definitely a very good dman, not a pure #1 but very good when healthy. Calling him an anchor is ridiculous.
I fully agree Russ is an anchor. But a cheap one for Arz. He’s the bonus I’m hoping KH can pull-off so we can get some cap space back. I’m sure Arz has asked for Nurse, Bouch, Bro…but Holland’s not letting them go for just OEL. I could see AA in place of Russ though…
Yotes lose the better player but gain big cash savings and potential return from #14…who I think will be a good player. It’s not a bad trade for either team in the current situation.
Klef + Russ maybe gets you a 2nd round pick? Hahahaha cmon man…
Question for ya – if OEL was a UFA this summer, would you be in favor of signing him to 7 years X $7.25M? If so, would you be in favor of doing so if you needed to pay a 1st rounder and Samorukov for the right?
Bowing smoke out of your ass again. You speculate on things you have no way of knowing and Speak to them as if they are fact.
Putting Klefbom on LTIR does not create $4M of cap space in the off-season.
Doughty’s cap hit is $11 million for another 6 years and he’s a year older than OEL.
Hedman is the best defenseman in the league.
It would take McDavid to get him.
Are you sure you want to do that?
I would take Hedman and Doughty over OEL
This.
Teams can wait many years without the chance to acquire an actual #1D.
The Oilers haven’t had one since the one year Pronger agreed to play in Edmonton.
That was 14 years ago.
It appears the mob wants to wait another 14 years.
Who signed Kassian to that abomination of a contract?
I guess I’m in the minority here but that deal is an absolute steal.
OEL at 6.75 per is absolutely fantastic.
That’s What Nurse wants and slightly more than Brodin signed for and less than Spurgeon
OEL is best d since Pronger
Ryan,
This is not true. As Alan Walsh (yes THAT guy), an agent in the business forever put it, any accountant worth their salt can severely cut that deficit. Good advice makes the difference all but negligible.
I believe insurance policy picks up Tab for players on LTIR.
This is not directed at you specifically but the post is an example of a pet peeve of mine.
There seems to be extreme negative put on Holland due to something that he didn’t’ do (or didn’t not do). This is simply a TSN reporter speculating what it would cost or what a trade could look like in his opinion. There is zero intel actually out there that Holland would be willing to give up a Bouchard or even the 14th in this type of trade.
All we know is that Holland has inquired about OEL – that was Friedman’s intel, backed up be LeBrun.
The intel isn’t that the Oilers are hot and heavy for him or that they have made offers for him but just that they inquired about him.
Sure, the AA trade, that was something Holland actually did – at this point it looks like a poor move but, with respect, from the post above, additional negativity is being directed towards Holland based on nothing he has actually done or said and based on media speculation.
The Stars are built for the playoffs.
The Oilers are built to beat the Blackhawks.
The deal that Rishaug was building in his head included retention of apx $1M but, again, this is not something Rishaug heard from any source or anyone in the org but his thoughts on how a deal could get done.
Yes that’s true but he may return before the end of the season.
If I was Arizona I wouldnt even look at Klefbom given his extensive injury history.
He’s damaged goods and we have no idea how effective he will be post surgery.
The Oilers finished ahead of the Dallas Stars in the regular season (1 point – just behind in points percentage). “True Contenders”? Nope, but every bit as much of a “contender” as Dallas.
After being buyers at the deadline, Holland and Klef would decide to shut it down with playoffs ahead, even if they knew it was going to be a few months?
I don’t see it.
Not to mention, I would be shocked if Klefbom himself would have be in favor of surgery with playoffs on the horizon, even in the circumstance – he can’t be forced and I would suggest the org wouldn’t have pressured him in any event.
Thanks for the updates.
Rishaug doesn’t usually spit ball trade scenarios especially when there’s already lots of smoke.
I heard a rumor yesterday about a deal involving OEL for futures to the Oilers.
I think the Klefbom injury actually increases the likelihood of an OEL trade.
Waiving his NMC would cost OEL over $3.5 m in taxes over his contract.
Harpers Hair,
All NHL contracts are insured, they wouldnt have to pay the full amount for Klef.
Well, lets hope Rishaug is never up for Oilers GM…
This makes no sense.
Arizona is cash strapped not cap strapped.
If Klefbom is on LTIR, they still have to pay him and he may come back before next season ends.
As for your trade suggestions to 30 other teams, an injured Klefbom and Russel both have negative value so you’re trying to trade a first round pick and a couple of anchors.
Might get a second round pick for that.
Being an Oilers fan, it’s always assumed that when the media drops a bomb like Klefbom maybe needing surgery a week before the draft, we assume it’s to hinder our negotiations in the trade market. That’s fair…all Sportsnet and TSN cast members may as well be on the Leafs payroll IMO.
But maybe, just once, this is going to help explain a trade before it happens…
Klefbom + Russell + 1st for OEL (1.5 mil retained)
Looks like a massive overpay until you see Klefbom done for the season next year. Arizona gets the cheaper actual dollars Russell contract and also gets to bury Klefbom’s contract on LTIR. We get OEL at 6.75mil/season. (I’d pay that for OEL all day…he’s 29….not 34.)
I think the holdup has been the salary retention from Arizona. They offered 1mil and wanted Bouch, Oilers wanted 2mil and Klef. They’ll settle at 1.5mil if they can bury Klefbom’s contract on LTIR (hence…the leak).
But, would Klef + Russell + 1st get you something better than OEL from one of the other 30 teams our coach/GM didn’t used to work for? Are we capable of negotiating with teams not on the “been fired from” list? Sure hope so…or next year we might be looking at an Arz/Det hybrid mash-up…with Leon and McD. Gross.
TheGreatBigMac,
A new GM in edmonton traded for Griffin Reinhart. If anything they dont value things like they should/ have their own plan in mind. If OEL doesnt fit that plan, best value he can get. As per the proposal, as LT always says, who did the GM draft? Bouchard isnt his guy and may not fit the plan just like OEL. I think Holland wants big and fast. Bouchard isnt fast.
All that would accomplish is replacing Benning with a more expensive player and blocking Bouchard for at least a couple of seasons. Since both are RHD that makes zero sense.
Stauffer and Brian Lawton discussion today suggested that the OEL price under a new GM would likely be too high and the better route is likely an UFA like Barrie, Vatenan etc.
I agree with all these points but lets remember, this was simply Rishaug’s opinion on what it would cost to get OEL (and it included apx $1M retained on OEL) – this isn’t something he got from the org (or even something he said he’d be in favor of) – it was him “thinking through” what the Yotes would require.
There is less pressure on Nurse with a horse like OEL than there is on him with a gimpy Klefbom who has been injured multiple times.
If Nurse can’t handle the pressure of 2D, you trade him right now.
I would have been all over that trade at the time, and, of course, I am a Nuge fan (and was at the time).
To me, Jones was already close to a high end top pairing d-man at the time and I was fully confidant he was going to be elite.
I also remember at the time thinking that Nuge, as much as I was a fan, wasn’t at the same level of value as Johansen and never thought it was something that could seriously happen.
This is just so out there.
Russell is already replaced on the roster.
Klefbom will be on LTIR.
You would have OEL, Nurse and Jones as LHD with Lagesson singing back up until Broberg arrives and takes over from Nurse.
Larsson, Bear and Benning are your 3RD until the expansion draft with Berglund taking over.
The Russell cap saving is $4M and the Klefbom LTIR is potentially another $4M so if Arizona retains $2M the Oilers get a #1D while saving cap space.
Both Lagesson and Benning might get a small raise but you’re still ahead of the game since Bear was going to get a raise in any event.
I know Washington is trying to re-sign him but is Brenden Dillon a one-year stop gap – can he and Jones cover 2LD.
Lots of pressure on Nurse, which isn’t great.
I would hope that an injury, even one that has him out for months, doesn’t materially change Holland’s building plans – he knows his cap situation going forward, he knows he needs his picks and young ELC players.
I could live with OEL at least $1M retained for Russell + Samarukov + 2021 1st and I’m flexible on Russell he can probably be traded elsewhere. Not sure Yotes do that deal but if they want to recoup 1st round picks, this is an option.
I’m okay with an OEL deal if it’s a good fit and fair trade. If not I’m fine going with replacements for a year/whenever Klef is healthy. Tampa has done it with Stamkos. Key players get injured and sewer a season it happens. You get to grow others on the team and gain better draft prospects, it’s only for a year.
Does it have to be Bouchard for OEL, seriously we waited so long to finally have a top RD prospect and he cost a full blown season. I wouldn’t like Samarukov to go, he’s going to be great but we have other LD.
If OEL costs Klef and the 2021 first and they are taking Russell it still doesn’t work. Russell needs to be replaced on the roster, so the overall cap gain is ~$1m.
Let’s say Russell = Lagesson or whoever replaces him.
Is the upgrade from Klef to OEL worth a loss of $1m in cap and a 1st rounder? I don’t think so.
That being said, if KH manages to cleanly dispose of Russell elsewhere, and Arizona takes Neal instead, or vice versa, then I do the deal. In that case, Neal’s replacement also hits the cap under $1m, so the net trade is a 1st rounder for an upgrade of Klef to OEL, a gain of $3.75m on the cap.
As long as the draft pick going to Arizona with Bouchard is the 2021 #1 (lottery-protected), rather than the #14, I can live with that. Modulo the other stuff in the deal to make the money work for either team.
Lots and lots of concern regarding Rishaug’s proposal for OEL and, lets be clear, listening to the spot on Dusty’s show, this is Rishaug spit-balling and speculating – there is no sense that he has any information from the organization on this.
https://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/audio/rishaug-waiting-for-guys-to-develop-they-won-t-be-good-enough-fast-enough-1.1532091
Coincidentally also a recipe for disaster.
I am hoping Holland can get Arizona to onOEL and he can move the 2021 first.
Then I’m in.
This is a suprise but if OEL can make over the entire defence the window to the cup opens right away.
Shame about Klefbom injury as acquiring a top winger dealing from left side defends is off the table. Or maybe they do spend money on uFa winger and go with internal solutions at 3 center.