It’s Saturday and the Oilers still have the first-round draft pick, there were times this week when that seemed unlikely. How will this draft roll out, assuming the Oilers stay at No. 14 overall? Here’s how I see it.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s in a name? For NHL players, deciding on pronunciation can be a challenge
- New Lowetide: Reconsidering Oilers’ offseason in light of Oscar Klefbom injury news
- New Jonathan Willis: Buyer beware: Trade partners for Oliver Ekman-Larsson have to hope he ages well
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Who will be available if the Oilers pick at No. 14?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
TOP 14
Alexis Lafreniere (No. 1) (who I keep wanting to call Roger) will be the first name off the board at the 2020 draft. New York Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton is going to have a ridiculous left wing depth chart but this is the best player available. Lafreniere will play behind LW’s Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, meaning his center is likely to be Peter Stemkowski.
The No. 2 overall pick will be interesting. Los Angeles Kings have the pick and director of amateur scouting Mark Yannetti and his staff have a tough choice. LAK have chosen three centers in the first round in the last three seasons (Gabe Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari and Alex Turcotte), but I think they go with winger Tim Stutzle (No. 2) from Germany with the second pick.
Quinton Byfield (No. 3) goes to the Ottawa Senators at No. 3 overall, the team will have 50 centers by the end of the draft but can move 17 to each wing.
The draft gets fun at No. 4 overall, with Steve Yzerman and the Detroit Red Wings on the clock. I’ve read they might go goalie, and that left defense will be the target, but I’ll guess DRW take Marco Rossi (No. 4) and his complete skill set.
Ottawa goes back on the clock and takes LHD Jake Sanderson (No. 5) from the US National Development Program. Like Rossi at No. 4, Sanderson has a fairly complete skill set and that tips the balance in his favour.
Anaheim Ducks seem to be on a collision course with Cole Perfetti (No. 6), who is the last of the OHL impact forwards at the top of this year’s draft. He had 111 points last season.
New Jersey Devils likely pick RHD Jamie Drysdale (No. 7). He’s a puck mover, creative defender who combines great speed with creativity. Drysdale and Ty Smith might form a strong pairing in the years to come.
Buffalo Sabres are up next and there’s a sense from some people that the quality dips here. I don’t see it that way, as Alexander Holtz (No. 8) promises to be the natural scorer for Eichel’s line in the future. The only way he’s here is an uneven draft year in the SHL.
Minnesota Wild are under new management and I believe Bill Guerin will want to make a statement with his first pick. Anton Lundell (No. 9) plays a style that should suit Guerin’s template (Red Line calls him a bull in a china shop) while also delivering enough offense to play on the top two lines.
Next up is the Winnipeg Jets, the team that does a splendid job (mostly) at the draft. If the top nine play out this way, expect Kevin Cheveldayoff and his staff to pick RW Jack Quinn (No. 10) at this spot. There are a couple of things about him to note, including being older than most in this year’s draft and the fact he played for a deep and strong OHL team. There’s just too much offense to pass over. Quinn’s the pick here.
Nashville Predators are at a strange spot in the team’s history, kind of halfway between contending and needing some young impact pieces. LC Hendrix Lapierre (No. 11) is healthy and performing at a high level, and the preseason and opening night QMJHL performance have calmed fears about him. I think he’s going to be the surprise of this year’s first round.
Florida Panthers are another team under new management and it sounds like there are changes brewing at Sunrise. LW Lucas Raymond (No. 12) is a great skater, smart player and has skill. He has his detractors but I don’t think he slides beyond the Panthers.
Carolina Hurricanes can go in any number of directions, but the player with the highest ceiling at this point is goaltender Yaroslav Askarov (No. 13). Hurricanes will have to be patient, but then again great goalies often spike around 20.
Edmonton Oilers can go any number of ways here, but I think much of their wishlist has been gobbled up in the five or so picks above. RC Seth Jarvis (No. 11) represents great value here and I think his star has been rising in recent weeks. He would be the first WHL player chosen by Edmonton since Kailer Yamamoto and Stuart Skinner in 2017.
HOLLAND’S WORK WEEK
I’ll be writing about this today (should be up this afternoon) but the Oscar Klefbom news likely altered plans for Ken Holland and his staff. Edmonton has several moves to make this offseason but Holland showed us he is a patient man last summer (Lucic trade, Sheahan signing). Edmonton could pull the trigger on a deal at any time, but the Klefbom complication may have required a reset for the organization.
Trading back is stupid. This isn’t the NFL.
Trade for a player given how nutso GMs go over getting a first rounder so they can step up and flub the pick.
I thought he was one of our best players in the play-in. Looked sharp and quick(er). Same as the first 15 games of the season.
I think we’d have done better with him at 1LW in game 1 and then 1RW once it was clear Kassian wasn’t at the races
I guess I am the only one left that thinks Neal will provide better value than whoever replaces him plus the buyout cost.
The stars are aligning for him to have an effective season. He has tons of time to rest is body having only played 4 games in 10 months leading into the season. It will be his first time in 3 seasons that he isn’t trying to settle in on a new team. And last year he had a career low .988 PDO (including a shocking low .922 against bottom comp).
Benson-Haas-Neal
Could be a very effective bottom 6 line against sheltered competition. I would love to watch Neal hammer some Benson feeds.
Sorry for the slow reply.
I’m sure I read it called a Labral Tear and as you say the timeline fits that and no other common shoulder injuries really.
My knowledge on this is what I’ve been told as I have the same injury. In my old age I play beach volleyball, tennis and hockey now so maybe the two high contact shoulder rotation sports skew the advice. But I’m pretty sure the key driver of the long timeline is how long the repair takes to fuse back onto the bone. I was told that in itself was basically 6 months. Pro athlete, better treatment, cutting edge stuff on healing, blood flow, other stuff and maybe it’s 4 months to fuse then 2 or 3 months for all the muscle work and physio.
If you’re going to do it the last thing in the world you want is 6 months out then your rip the repair of the bone and it’s back to square one.
It also sounds like a mega frustrating 6 months. There isn’t much you can do with that arm in that time!!
Fwiw the surgeon I saw told me no matter what I did I’d be in so much pain within 6 months I’d be having the surgery anyway. I had a cortisone injection and did 6 months of very committed physio and strengthening exercises and 8 years later it’s still fine. I’m sure Oscar’s shoulder is under more stress then mine but I’ve done 8 weeklong beach vb camps and about 40 three day tournaments in the last 8 years and it’s held up just fine.
I wonder what Oscar is struggling with. Pain? Lack of strength and force to battle with? Unable to work hard in the gym because the shoulder is so restrictive (there are lots of exercises I can’t do with any meaningful weight).
We know what peak Dreamy looks like and he was not there in the play-in. What a shame he didn’t have the surgery in March. He’d be back to 100% by Xmas…
Mcleod:
D: (6/365), .504 ev, 43 xPT
D +1: .402 ev, 39 xPT
Jarvis coming into the roster next yr when RNH will likeLy be gone is what I hope for.
OP:
Desjardins expect age 22 performance curves suggest an expected pt Total (xPT) Of 82 pt.
Right their with debrincitt s Numbers.
Kaliyev
D: .695 age ev, xPT 87 pt, superior to Jarvis and Debrincitt
D +1: .478 age ev, xPT 67pt, a 20 pt drop.
I did not expect Kalyiev to drop out of 2nd round especially with clear top 10 xPT.
R. Lavoie
D: 10/365 x.25 = .007 + .500 = .507
73/62 x .507 = .597 x 82 = 49 xPT
D +1: .403 eq
82/55 x .403 = .601 x 82 = 49 xPT
Lavoie shows a consistent expected pt production.
D. Cozens:
D: 147/365 , .601 ev, 62 xPT
D+1: .440 ev, 62 xPT
No idea. But pretty certain it will be more than what Nuge’s gets. Would be tough for the Oilers for sure.
It’s “only” $1.9M. And that’s a “reasonable” amount of dead cap. But your eyes are lighting up (a little) at potentially having double that amount to spend.
Any dead cap is bad, obviously. You don’t want it. And the buyout only actually erases 1/3 of the cap hit on the deal ($1.9M X 3).
No question the Oilers could use the extra $3.8M over the next 3 years. Likewise it would suck to still be paying Neal $1.9M in 2025-26 when Draisaitl’s extension kicks in.
The buyout (Neal or otherwise) is a valid option. We just shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking we won’t be missing that (almost) $2M in cap space in 4 or 5 years.
How much is Laine going to ask for on his next deal? One poster suggested $11M/year the other day, which I thought was high. How could Edmonton even afford to sign him?
flea,
I agree Nuge is likely as good a fit for the Oilers as Laine (very different players though, obviously).
That aside, Nuge is UFA in 1 year, Laine is RFA in 1 year. The Jets would need to have Nuge signed before making any kind of move centred on those 2 players.
But it’s only $1.916M for years 4-6. That is a reasonable dead cap hit (2.3% of the cap if it stays flat). Most teams have some degree of dead cap hit on their books and it is not an impediment to their success (referring to the teams who made the playoffs). For the next three years, they could use the $3.83M cap savings (4.7% of available cap) to fundamentally improve the third line or goaltending.
3C.
He wasn’t good this year but for a few years before this one he had pretty impressive results considering his minutes. Coming out ahead in goals, shots, DFF while playing ~35% elites, and with ~40% OZ starts.
His offense is (was) OK I think. Has been 25-30 points per full season. Face offs like you mention. A primary penalty killer (and very good it seems).
I’m not sure what happened this season (was Brandon Tanev driving his results?). A year ago I think you’d have had a hard time getting him out of Winnipeg. On the surface maybe that’s changed (agreed he doesn’t look like a player you’d want based on this past season).
I’d be interested to hear from anyone who follow the Jets more closely than I do.
Are the Oilers actually better with Laine on the wing rather than Nuge? I think I’d rather sign Nuge.
It may well be a smart play this year, I don’t disagree. It’s still a guessing game though, no one knows how the FA market will be this time around and exactly how good the deals will be.
I replied mostly because you said earlier we/the team would barely notice or care about the dead cap 5 or 6 years down the road. I don’t think that’s at all true.
Are you thinking 3C or 4C? His offense looks a bit shy for 3C; his Woodmoney’s are not very kind. Good face off guy. $3M is pricey but it’s only one year. Likely wouldn’t cost a lot of assets. Roslovic is another interesting name, but he isn’t an ideal 3C either.
With the chatter about Laine, I’ve been wondering what a team like the Oilers would have to give up to acquire him.
If Klefbom wasn’t hurt a package including him might have gotten some interest (but I doubt would have occurred)
Would RNH be enough straight up?
It’s nearly a wash salary wise and term wise. However, the Jets get a veteran second line Center they can sign next year for likely less than Laine would command.
The Oilers get a bonafide sniper who fits better in their top 6 and PP.
Maybe I just want to see Laine McDavid Puljujarvi hit the ice!
Interesting in a dick punch sort of way. All bad UFA contracts (I’m sure GM’s will figure this out one day). I’m not a huge fan of the buyout but I really think it is a smart strategic play this one last time….Zack Kassian notwithstanding.
Interesting coincidence that the Pouliot and Sekera buyouts equal the same $3.8M you’re talking about getting from a Neal buyout.
Could be that JP would have turned out to be a more effective player if he followed that development model (and I agree that that was the smart play). Could be that JP wasn’t as good as we thought he would be and the Oilers just took the wrong guy, regardless of development model. Eventually, you either develop or you don’t. If JP has what it takes, he will sign an NHL contract and let his play do the talking.
I wonder if there’s any chance Lowry could be available coming off a down year?
And LA has #flattop, which discounts their prospect pool.
Very true. We focus on Nail and Jesse and all those other picks, and give major credit for the 2015 draft, but what happened for Bear and Jones and Yamamoto in Bakersfield was part of it. IMAGINE what might have happened if Puljujarvi had played two seasons in Finland and then a little time in Bakersfield. That’s why McLeod and Lavoie arrived at a good time imo.
Great job by Ennis’ camp to get the status of his health out there prior to free agency.
Noted. They will not be using the pick at 14. They will be trading back. I’ve read the almanac. How does it turn out? It was the wrong move?
Excellent article, I enjoyed it very much. I do believe the Oilers have finally got a proper development system with priority on development. I am also of the opinion that proper draft and development will be ever increasingly more important given current flat cap and economic uncertainty.
That is a valid opinion/viewpoint – I don’t agree with it and lean the other way, as does the GM.
The Kings have 1 top 6 forward and 1 top 4 d-man, 33 and 30 years old and both signed long term to anchor contracts.
A great prospect pool means little at this point.
I’ll wait and see where they get to in 3-5 years.
They are going to be terrible for a while.
Why handcuff yourself now when you don’t have to? As long as there isn’t any other dead cap added, $1.8M is hardly an insurmountable obstacle. That cap space is way more valuable at this point.
Re-stating my annual call to trade the 1st round pick.
Just getting it on the record.
Jarvis is a very reasonable option to go in the range of 14 and, from what I’ve read, that player won’t help for 3-5 years.
He’s better than Kaliyev but, of course, the description of him is MUCH different because of a narrative.
Yes, I very much care about $2M of dead cap space 4, 5 and 6 years from now.
I know who else cares, Ken Holland.
It is far from a certainty that the cap will be over $82.5M in those years, in fact, I think it not likely for at least 5 years.
I’ve explained why (the provisions are in the MOU – high level, cap doesn’t go over $81.5M until HRR reaches $4.8B AND the Escrow Balance is paid off).
Lets not forget, there is an agreement in place where the players get paid in full next season if even 1 game is played – that is the NHLPA’s position on the agreement. The Escrow Balance may get even larger next season.
Is Jarvis an Oiler?
I must have been napping.
In any event, the Kings picks are 1-3 years ahead of him except the Kings are likely to draft Quinton Byfiield.
Do you propose they take Jarvis at #2 because he’s so special?
By the way, Kaliyev was drafted in the second round after the Kings took Turcotte in the first.
The Kings basically drafted two first round picks last year.
Yep..that’s what happens when you do a proper rebuild …clean house.
The Kings moved out players like Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli but their rebuild has only been going on for three years not two decades like the Oilers and, of course, they weren’t blessed with 4 number one picks two of which were pissed away.
You’re still clutching Tyler Benson to your chest…the Kings have a dozen better prospect forwards than him.
You are concerned with a $2M dead cap hit 5 or 6 years from now? Who cares about that? The cap should be higher by then or the economic model of hockey has collapsed. I would kick that can down the road. The $3.8M now is far more valuable than the dead cap later on. There are going to be great opportunities to improve the roster immediately. Making minimal to no improvement in order to prevent a minor dead cap hit 4-6 years from now is a huge mistake in my estimation.
In his draft year, Jarvis scored 42 goal and 98 points in 58 games in the Dub but is a player that should be traded for immediate help because he will take 3-5 years.
In his draft PLUS 1 year, Kaliyev had 98 points in 58 games in the OHL but is cited for a great prospect pool – no mention of needing 2-4 more years.
Yup, the Kings have a great prospect pool – of course, their actual NHL roster is absolutely devoid of top 6 forwards and top 4 d-men except for two players on the wrong side of 30 both signed forever to bloated contracts they are not value for (Kopitar is great but he’s 33 and only been a PPG game once -he’s not a $10M player).
They better hope most of those prospects hit their ceilings – I’m not sure if they are developing or if they should have arrived yet. Its seems some prospects need to arrive early to have value whereas others should be traded because they won’t help for 3-5 years….. Its hard to keep track
I’ll try and ampersand next time. 🙂
Because all of the centres except Kopitar and Prokhorkin are either 18, 19 or 20.
The left winger Kaliyev is 19 and scored 98 points in only 58 games in the OHL last season.
The right winger Fagemo is 20 and scored 8 goals and 13 points in only 7 games at the World Junior tournament.
The Kings also have 10 picks in the upcoming draft including #2 and three second round picks.
Think they’ve got this drafting thing surrounded.
You know I love you to death Harper … but that’s three words, not two.
Weren’t you the person that stated good players show themselves early. If so how come The Kings are still so bad.
Tamp vs NYI Conf final
TMP GA in 4 wins 2, 1, 1, 1, 5GA, 1.25 GAA
Dal vs VGK
Dal GA in 4 wins 0, 2, 1, 2, 5GA, 1.25 GAA
TMP vs DAL
TMP GA in 4 wins 2, 2, 4, 0, 8GA, 2.00 GAA
Their is a theme in final 4 Championship play.
Over and Over again.
Looking at last 6 gm of every team Dmen Min 20evtoi (153 Dmen)
Bear bottom 5
Nurse bottom 10
Klefbom, Larsson, OEL bottom 35
Russell Bottom 50
Benning top 40
Jones top 10
Russell and Larsson show elite def play to their side.
But 1D -1G is not HD area championship play.
Agreed about the need for young players on their ELCs making material contributions to the team – Bear, Jones, Yamamoto last season. Hopefully Yamamoto, Bouchard and Benson this season.
Trading the 1st round pick for an established top 6 winger can’t be made in isolation given the cap space that would need to be opened up and also has implications via the expansion draft (high end expansion draft exempt asset out for must protect asset in).
Making this type of trade can have value but that timing needs to make sense – the Canucks did a good job of it last season.
The could sure use that type of trade this season to provide an upgrade on their D but the timing doesn’t make sense for them this year given their cap and their lack of picks this year.
It doesn’t make sense for the Oilers this year either.
——————–
Sure, some just drafted players can step right in to the lineup and even right in to the top 6. Its rare for this to be a player drafted outside of the top 5-10 – it happens but its rare.
Even if, say, Jarvis, Halloway, Quinn, whoever, could play in the NHL this year, that doesn’t make it a good idea (for the team or for their development) and putting the with McDavid and asking them to play 18 plus 5 on 5 minutes against the best d-men in the world and with the pressure of needing to produce….. doesn’t seem like a good idea.
The player drafted at 14, after his ELC slides once or twice (or isn’t signed until later) will be a much more mature and developed player after a season or two post draft and likely able to provide real value on a cheap ELC – that’s what is needed in 2-3 year and the years heading in to the expiry of McDavid’s contract.
—————–
No, its not up to McDavid to develop teenage players.
Its up to management to do so and the way, in my opinion, is the opposite of what has been proposed.
I would also prefer Nuge at $6.5M (apx) over the next 6-8 years than Hall at $8M (apx) for that period – i think Nuge’s game will age more gracefully given style, skill-set and, well, history.
With that said, Hall plus the 10th and the 40th at that price is > Nuge.
I don’t see the Jets making that deal without having spoken to Nuge about an extension (which Holland can give permission to do). Also, Jets’ cap situation isn’t awful but they’ve got apx $14M with only 14 roster spots (plus Little) – they’d want some cap to go back I would think.
Bensons:
D-1 NHL ev .874
(45/62) x .874 = .634 x 82 = 52 xPT
D NHL equiv .624
(28/30) x .624 = .582 x 82 = 48 xPT
Debrincitt:
D (93/365) x .25 = .064 + .5 = .564 NHL equiv
(101/60) x .564 = .9494 x82 = 78 xPT
The math creamed for debrincitt and I screamed at the TV when we took a 48 PT fwd if he played major PP.
We need to concentrate on the best Even PT NHL age equiv forwards moving forward.
This yr is getting high pt from a C
Two words.
Yakupov and Puljujarvi.
By the time the 14th pick is likely to make an impact in 3-5 years (if ever) Yamamoto won’t be on an ELC.
Citing outliers doesn’t make case any stronger.
While Oilers fiddle around the edges, the Barbarians are about to storm the gates.
As an example, this is LAs centre depth after the draft:
Kopitar
Byfield
Turcotte
Vilardi
Prokhorkin
Madden
Kupari
Akil Thomas
Every one of those players have top six potential and, of course, that list doesn’t include Arthur Kaliyev
or Samuel Faragemo.
They’re a couple of D away from being dominant and they’re sitting with $17 million in cap space even before Dustin Brown and Jeff Carter drop off the cap and Dion Phaneuf’s $4 million buyout goes away.
Playing the draft and develop game with a team like that is taking a knife to a gunfight.
Still want to wait a few years?
If all Sergachev costs is a mid first round pick you take that and giggle all the way home
Any proper scouting of Quinn requires looking at his shot success against the high save% junior goalies with strong table hockey movement (phase 1 of tracking)
Need to identify his open shot targeting against these goaltenders.
Volume shooting success against poor goalies Is not NHL standard.
Way easier to shoot thru poor CHL goalie play.
lol
lol