It seems as though every time the Edmonton Oilers and “playoffs” are mentioned in the same sentence, there’s a veteran LH defenseman with some kind of malady. It was Andrej Sekera in the spring of 2017, the Peter Chiarelli-Todd McLellan Oilers derailed the day of his injury against the Anaheim Ducks and never got better.
Four years later and Edmonton is hurtling toward a playoff series against Winnipeg, Montreal or Toronto, and it’s Oscar Klefbom whose health has poked a hole in the depth chart. We talk about No. 3 center, goaltending and scoring LW being addressed at the deadline, but what about LHD?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s season of inactivity — what is the risk for the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Oilers futures watch — how new arrivals are making an impact at AHL Bakersfield
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers ahead of the trade deadline
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ big decision on defence — Caleb Jones or William Lagesson?
- Jonathan Willis: Finding the ideal centre for the Oilers at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers March report card
- Jonathan Willis: Who says no? NHL execs evaluate your Oilers trade proposals for Taylor Hall, John Gibson and more
- Lowetide: Lowetide’s Oilers trade deadline quiz: Test your knowledge
- Lowetide: Scouring the hockey world for a left winger for the Oilers’ skill line
- Lowetide: How the Oilers could benefit at the trade deadline from relaxed quarantine rules
- Lowetide: Every major transaction Ken Holland has made as Oilers GM
- Jonathan Willis: Five questions the Oilers need to answer by the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Carter Savoie’s college season suggests Oilers could have a real goal scoring prospect
- Lowetide: Where does Zack Kassian fit on the Oilers, now and in the future?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ midseason depth chart informs their needs for trade deadline and beyond
- Jonathan Willis: A position-by-position look at the Oilers after 30 games
- Lowetide: How will Oilers GM Ken Holland make room in the lineup for Evan Bouchard?
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers and Elvis Merzlikins a trade match?
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dominik Kahun, Dylan Holloway and a perfect storm on the Oilers’ left side
- Lowetide: Why Oilers GM Ken Holland shouldn’t wait for the deadline to make a trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition
- Lowetide: Why are some Oilers fans hesitant to give Darnell Nurse his due?
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers improve enough to beat TML it in May?
- Lowetide: Top trade targets for the Oilers at the 2021 deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021 trade value rankings
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
OILERS AFTER 39 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 15-21-3, 33 points; goal differential -22
- Oilers in 2016-17: 19-13-7, 45 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017-18: 17-19-3, 37 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2018-19: 18-18-3, 39 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in 2019-20: 20-15-4, 44 points; goal differential -3
- Oilers in 2020-21: 23-14-1, 47 points; goal differential +14
Edmonton is just 1-3-0 against Montreal, so there are no guarantees this evening. In those four games, Edmonton has scored four and allowed 12 goals, so there’s room for improvement.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL
- At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Montreal, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Vancouver (make up game) (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Expected April record: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- Actual April record: 1-0-0, 2 points in 1 game
TARGETS LHD
Patrik Nemeth is a free agent at the end of the year and his Puck IQ DFF% Rel numbers have consistently been in the black over several years. His GA/60 against elites is 1.50 and he has played 159 minutes against the league’s best already this season. He’s legit top four, Dave Tippett might be able to slide Nemeth-Bear and Jones-Larsson in behind Nurse-Barrie for the postseason.
I looked at other lefty defenders, including Jamie Oleksiak, but honestly Caleb Jones numbers are better. In my opinion, the optimal usage is Nurse-Barrie, Jones-Bear and Lagesson/Russell-Larsson. Bear is more effective than Barrie with Nurse, but there’s no other spot for Barrie that works and it’s too late in the year to audition. I’d make a trade for Nemeth, though.
NEW NHLE
This blog has promoted NHLE work from Gabriel Desjardins, Rob Vollman, Kent Wilson and others over the years, and in our own way I believe have promoted the cause. I’m thrilled to introduce to you NNHLE from CJ Turturo. I won’t give away the process, it’s an easy and informative read and the premise is easy to understand (the formula something else). Here are the NNHLE’s from a select group of Oilers prospects:
- Tyler Benson (AHL) 40.9
- Cooper Marody (AHL) 38.6
- Ryan McLeod (AHL) 29.0
- Dylan Holloway (Big-10) 28.8
- Kirill Maksimov (VHL) 23.8
- Matej Blumel (Czech) 21.3
- Raphael Lavoie (Allsvenskan) 15.8
- Maxim Berezkin (MHL) 15.6
- Ostap Safin (AHL) 15.4
- Maxim Denezhkin (VHL) 14.3
- Evan Bouchard (Allsvenskan) 13.2
- Carter Savoie (NCHC) 12.1
- Philip Broberg (SHL) 11.8
- Tyler Tullio (Slovak) 11.7
- Markus Niemelainan (AHL) 10.7
- Filip Berglund (SHL) 10.0
That pushes the AHL and Euro leagues up and fades the college men. Edmonton doesn’t have much in the way of CHL talent these days, so there’s no real consideration. Tullio’s OHL draft season was 13.5 NNHLE, suggesting a major market correction for the CHL.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on TSN 1260 as we get back to work and head toward the trade deadline. At 10:20 we’ll tee up tonight’s important game, and at 10:40 it’s Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic to discuss a wildly successful opening weekend for the Toronto Blue Jays. At 11 Jason Gregor from TSN1260 talks Oilers-Habs and the deadline, and at 11:25 we welcome Julian Edlow from Draft Kings to tee up Baylor-Gonzaga in the NCAA National Championship game tonight. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I seem to remember JP and Laine basically alternating as RHS playing LW with Aho at the WJC that line dominated. I also think his size, stick and boardwork make him the best candidate to flip to the left side to help the configuaration of the top 6. Would really like to see this:
JP McDavid Kassian
Nuge Drai Yamo
Bottom 6
I think this is the best way to get their six most effective forwards playing together and seems like a pretty obvious solution to try while waiting for (hopefully) Benson, Holloway, Mcleod to help as opposed to spending assets to bring in another forward.
Nuge/Drai/Yamo doesn’t seem like an option for the coach – it doesn’t have McDavid playing with one of Nuge or Drai so its a non-starter.
Provided Kassian’s hand is okay I think this reasonable shake-up.
Right now, McDavid’s line can’t generate 5×5 and Kassian had 15 goals at even-strength last year and 14 the year before.
This player the same teams 9-10 times really separates teams into their proper rank. There should be few suprised come playoffs. Yes room for upsets but not nearly the same as before.
it also clearly demonstrates each teams strengths and weaknesses. When you can see these things it’s a bit disappointing to see other teams fill holes and realize the Oil will not likely get much help from outside.
They are and can be as good as any team, but their top performers need more help. Absolutely.
TOI tonight:
Tkachuk 13:03
Lucic 14:50
And just for fun B Ritchie 14:28
An extensive interview with Ken Holland by DNB over at the Athletic
I won’t quote too much but this was interesting
There’s a chance Slater Koekkoek could be ready to play before the end of the season
Yes, the timeline for Koekkoek was pretty much right around playoff time. Its been known that he may be back. Of course, he’s not very good…..
Kenny stating emphatically the Broberg will play pro in North America next season
Broberg’s team starts a playoff series next week and if the team goes deep we won’t see Broberg until training camp
If the Oilers have to play Koekkoek, they can get their golf clubs ready.
Why?
The Leafs have dominated the Oilers this season.
He is their 11th or 12th best defensemen.
Why what?
Montreal, Toronto and Winnipeg all ice quality teams. Oilers are also of similar quality.
Playoffs between these 4 teams are going to be fast and furious.
Toronto: gives Edmonton fits. Best avoided.
Montreal: is crafty and can steal a series especially Round 1. After that they lose.
Winnipeg: is solid, and the team that Oilers measure up best against in Round 1.
Possibly.
Vancouver, Calgary and Ottawa at this late stage are little more than also rans.
I think Jets have improved with Dubois starting to find his groove. Gives a big forward line up even more size and physicality. We have done OK against them so far but they now may be better. Not sure we have improved? Russel, Barrie, Lagesson and Jones have all seemly struggled recently. If they don’t find their game Jets forwards will feast on them. There is still time for the Oil to get there shit together before playoffs start. Lets hope thy do.
It’s now basically a play in to determine playoff seeding.
The Leafs and Canadiens have figured out how to neutralize McDavid.
The Jets are the question mark.
The Oilers have 3 games left against the Jets…all in Winnipeg.
The Jets are 11-6-2 at home.
Not worried about the Jets. If Oilers can’t even beat Winnipeg…
Highly likely the Jets acquire a top 4 D at the deadline.
I’d prefer to see the Oilers play the Leafs in the opening round of the playoffs.
It’s feels like it’s been a couple of weeks now since the Oilers have put together a complete, convincing win.
Stauffer is spending A LOT of time complaining about the refereeing and being exasperated by certain players turning the puck over. He’s also saying, “He’s gotta win this draw” before ever single play begins. And, he’s making it pretty clear that Smith is vital to the success of this team…
Sounds like a squad that’s slumping and leaning on their goalie.
Not sure I would bet money on Oilers winning a play off round against any of the Jets, Habs or Leafs???
They have whatever games are remaining to tighten up the system play or it will be just like the Hawks.
As it is they can’t put a solid 60 together. Lots of sloppy play and lost basic one on one battles and failed basic passes and plays at both blue lines.
Those are exactly what you have to be solid on to give yourself a chance to win post season. It’s exactly why they lost to Chicago. Then you need luck, health and a solid goalie.
A team has to force the opponent to beat them with really good plays. Not by getting scored on by giving up constant clear looks in the high danger areas, and from basic plays from the cycle, which are not exactly a surprise when they happen.
That the Oilers continue to struggle in generating goals from the low cycle in the top 6 is not a problem for most teams that are challenging. It’s probably why Tippet has them looking for the point first in the O zone. But it gets predictable.
Foolhardy bet. Anaheim, losing like fools then recently Chicago broke me of all optimism re this Oilers team. Cynical now.
Oilers aren’t mentally strong enough yet. Playoffs, you half expect them to rack their brains until they find another way to lose.
First off.
Why is there a pairing of Larsson and Russell in the 21st century?
Secondly, the Oilers bottom 6 is still not good enough.
Shore, Chiasson, Khaira, Archibald, Kassian and Haas are all replaceable players.
Are Shore, Chiasson and Khaira going to find the next level?
Or at what point do you try the top line from Bakersfield in their spot and bring back the flashbacks of the Swanson Chimera Pisani line?
I really wish the Oilers would bring up the top line from Bakersfield and insert them directly into the line-up so that people can see why this is a bad idea and we can stop hearing about it.
Do you honestly think they’d do any worse than a Khaira, Shore and Chiasson line?
No but they couldn’t PK. And that’s Tipp’s hill to die on it seems.
I would 100% take Benson in the line but, no, McLeod is not ready to do what Khaira does throughout a game.
If the Oilers wanted to dress the best players Bouchard would be playing. If Tippett can’t win a playoff series he needs to be replaced. Do you think Mcdavid and Leon are hanging around here on a mediocre team think again.
With each passing game, I’m seeing more of Todd McLellan-like decisions from the coaching staff.
I would like to see a more progressive coach than what we’re seeing from Tippett.
Where are they going?
4 years goes quick there’s only so many will be better next year bullshit tales and if their not resigning they’ll go to the highest bidder.
Four years is a long time away.
If the Oilers lose in the 1st rounder for three years and then win the Cup in the 4th, do you think the 3 first round exits carry any weight? I think not.
It’s pretty naive to think that McDavid and Drai have an endless tolerance for “we’ll be be legitimate contenders in two years.”
What are they going to do? They aren’t going to demand trades during the term of their existing contracts.
How do you know they won’t demand a trade? What inside knowledge do you think you have?
it’s interesting that you think McDavid is making demands about who he does and does not play with, yet you are so convinced he wouldn’t ask for a trade.
I dunno. I’m at least as concerned with RNH, Leon and Mr.McDavid right now. They’ve played an extraordinary amount of hockey and the returns seem to be diminishing…
Stauffer is saying that Leon has likely been nursing an injury for weeks now. McDavid is spending more time talking to the refs then I’ve noticed in the past. RNH has been invisible .
RNH is either going to cost too much money for his consistent mediocre level of play, and should Oilers develop better younger players he’s history thanks to the cap.
Either that, or else he goes to a struggling team like the Flames and gets hailed as a saviour ala 2000s Horcoff lol
Leon and Mcdavid need help Bieksa said it on a national broadcast players are tired of getting walked by Connor and Leon and if you hook.hold and pick them the Refs are only going give Leon and Connor one call a game so it’s well worth it to neuter them.
Thought Jones had a rough night – may be battling confidence because he did not look comfortable and threw several grenades at Bear.
I’m probably wrong, but when Smith is in net, the forwards appear to cheat a little more for offense because he’s almost like a 3rd d-man, he gets the puck moving quickly. But as the game went on, guys were not coming back and as noted earlier, there would be several Habs skaters between the puck in our zone and our forwards. That didn’t help tonight.
Agreed on both accounts.
For me the problem with relying on a goalie to help the team deal with a normal thing – a forecheck – is what if he gets hurt?
Maybe Tipp sees his D corp has a big hole at LD with Klef, and has two rookies trying to fill in so he’s maximizing what he has to work with.
But I don’t want it to substitute the team learning how to win battles and move the puck normally. Playoff death IMO.
And that’s all I care about, is winning post season, Or what’s the point of it all?
Habs are a clever team. They have to be. They’re not very talented.
Haven’t the Habs beat the Oilers 4 out of 5 times this season?
McDavid and Nurse both minus 2 on the night. Dang
We now have a very clear picture of team weaknesses. We are the soft team.
I’m not sure about soft.
To me the best Oiler players still don’t have a ‘mature’ game and force plays unless things are going their way. That doesn’t work in the NHL no matter who you are.
Coaches and players have to adapt with setting up the opponent with deception. Any sport’s best league relies on deception, or the worthy opponent figures your deal out, quickly. You are playing the best teams in the world, right?
I find Connor and Leon blow things up when first together, and soon start looking for each other, forcing plays, and not using the team. And they become easier to defend.
Maybe they don’t trust the team, but it makes them easier to contain. NHL hockey played well, when it’s tight, chippy and mud, is largely boring. Hard inglorious work with lots of stick whacks and what is really interference.
But that’s how you win outside of the occasional blow out games.
Top 6 does not have much real grit. They give a dam and try but only so much a light Yamamoto or a young JP can do.
they try to cycle but seldom find an open man in front.
Rest of roster has stronger players but they lack other skills.
Defense gets overwhelmed by strong forechecks and mobbing the net for shots or tips. I do believe 90% of Montreal’s goals came from slot to blue paint.
Montreal D are big and put up a formidable wall.
Comparison to our competition we would be considered the soft team. Doesn’t mean we can’t win.
It seemed very much an “Oilers “ to watch a 2-0 lead become a 3-2 loss.
Yet I had confidence they could and would win. They didn’t but still so much better watching games this year
Agreed
While this is the second 3rd period blown lead in that last bit, on the season, the team has been very good at holding their 3rd period leads.
Also, Russel and Larsson were putrid tonight.
This team is still too often bad in their own end.
I commented to my 11 year old hockey mad kid that the Oilers make executing basic NHL plays look really hard.
He was laughing at Shore’s jump butt to the boards to stop a dump in after another lost puck battle, that wasn’t even dumped in yet, and of course was an easy play for the Hab.
Trying too hard?
Well at least it’s a back to back for both teams tomorrow. Koski start???
Oilers don’t play tomorrow. Wed/Thurs in Ottawa.
oops! Long weekend fuzzies…
Well at least there are not OTs in playoffs.
The better team on the night won the game.
I was shocked to see a forward other than 29 and 97 in OT.
Liked our bend but don’t break attitude at the start. Most shots were from the outside or Smith had a good look. Started the third to passive and lacked attention to detail(getting the puck out). We woke up some after that but shouldn’t have needed a wake up call. We need to learn to play with a lead if we are going to do damage in the playoffs. The good thing is we got a point and there are still plenty of games to work out the kinks. Decent game but we can be a lot better.
Playing with a lead means doing exactly the same thing without taking unnecessary risks IMO. Lay back and get beat.
Exactly. Played a “prevent” style of defence instead of continuing to push. It gives up to many chances against and leads to good chances. Something for us to learn, I guess. We have the talent just need to improve on a few mental aspects.
It is so weird that the RNH-McD-Puj line never scores 5v5. They look decent, they have chances, and they never cash.
Jesse reminds me a lot of Ethan Moreau with a bit less grit.
The wingers are both not finishers. JP might learn how to at his age to a degree.
Mcdavid needs a give and go winger with hands I’m hoping it’s Holloway
Holloway could be a very good fit there in time but the player you describe is not Dylan Holloway…. at least not this past season at Wisconsin.
NHL reffing is garbage. Pure garbage. And nothing will change because the people closest to the game don’t care. No one complains – not the players, not the coaches, not the broadcasters. Why make changes? Everyone is obviously happy with this garbage.
Agreed. The second period of this game was egregious. I find it difficult to watch at times. It is a miracle McD has not been injured more often given all of the tripping/hooking at high speed.
And the players that do complain, like Sid, get labelled as whiners.
It’s like the refs don’t like Edmonton, and Bettman hates the Oilers and the announcers suck and the coach is stupid and and and, give it a break.
I think you made an assumption that I blamed the loss on the refs. If you read my post, I clearly did not say that. We can lose the game and deserve the loss, but the reffing was still garbage. The interference is a joke. But how do you not call three clear tripping penalties?
Coaching loss there no doubt.
They get the lead, look like they are going into defend the lead mode I’m thinking, it’s in the net a minute later.
Then overplaying the top guys in OT. Like no one else on the team can possibly play better than completely gassed players.
Man that sucks. Montreal is a stingy team that’s for sure. They seem to know how to play against our big guns well.
Same MO they always struggle against.
Check C and D tight and watch them start forcing plays and go down the rabbit hole.
Maybe Tipp is teaching them to play a more mature and patient game based on what’s going on.
Does Tips think timeouts aren’t allowed in OT? Nurse was gassed and useless for the final 2 min there. Let three different guys walk down main street.
Dria had the straight legs going as well.
The goal came right after a timeout.
I really do not understand playing McDrai for the entire overtime period. Even the gods need rest.
Well that sucks
Damn. Can’t let that in. Really passive on the D coverage out there…but, still. Gotta stop that…
Tough to defend the blue aggressively in 3 on 3 but that really was a one on one that could have been defended tighter.
Other teams seem to play right in our faces in the O zone but we don’t in our D zone and it opens up chances like the one scored. I think they had three shots like that in OT. Maybe it’s because we like to counter and playing off gives you space if there is a turnover? But with no turnover there are lanes for shots. I’d like to see them more “in your face”. I’d rather we didn’t need overtime, actually…lol
Yup
Draisaitl blew the coverage. Staal was his man. He tried double-teaming Toffoli instead.
It was pretty lazy D. The entire OT was. Montreal had some great chances.
Smith gives up a weak one late on OT.
Oh well.
Weak? Nurse let him walk right in uncontested
Yup
Yes, as has been discussed.
Still a stoppable shot.
Draisaitl blew the coverage by trying to double up with McDavid on Toffoli. Draisaitl should have been covering Staal. Nurse was tracking Petry, and then shifted over when Draisaitl didn’t cover Staal.
You’d like Smith to make that save. If it was Mikko there would be 100 posts calling it a weak goal and that he needs to be fired to the sun.
I’d have the same reaction if Mikko was in net – I think the goalie should have made the save.
It’s a really good shot from 9 feet out. A lot of goalies are going to struggle with that one. Koskinen might have saved it though. He’s really good 1vG when he has clear sight on the puck. It’s the strongest part of his game.
Of course it’s Staal…
Wouldn’t be adverse to a timeout here to rest up the big guys.
Its almost preferable if McDavid/Drai do not start OT with possession – they generally score via the counter-attack.
Whew. Fun but scary game! Let’s take two, Now!!! Are you listening, McDrai?
Will take the point on the road and look for a second.
A loser point for the Habs puts yet another nail in the coffin of the Canucks…. all the nails are already in the flames coffin who are not far from being caught by the Sens.
You’ll take the one point because you have no choice but it’s nothing to celebrate when they were up by 2 in the 3rd period
Loser point for the Habs?
Geez Drai has made some strange plays with the puck tonight???
Khaira doesn’t clear……. JJ not having a great 3rd period.
Time to take Chiasson off the power play he’s just not connecting
Damn, Chiasson…. that’s two you should have….. Come on!
Interesting that the “PP guys” are out there for the 80 seconds of 4 on 4…. there will be 40 seconds of PP time coming up and they won’t be fresh.
Well, the Oil were finally able to cash in their penalty reward points on a nice trip.
Oh, my – important PK guy with a penalty late……. kill it for JJ.
That’ll do it – Archie gets an “even up call”.
Kill this please…
penalty?
Mistake by Khaira – got to get that puck deep. No harm.
Nuge is another candidate for “making an impact”.
Russell struggling with the puck on his stick tonight – he’s had a decent stretch of “puck skills”
Nice zone entry Kris but, my goodness, put the 5 foot pass on Drai’s stick (even on your backhand).
Would be nice for Zack to make an impact (a positive one to be clear).
It is three years till he has to start negotiating his next contract. You will likely be waiting till then.
Smith passes it to a D covered by three guys.
Nurse had posession with room and made a poor pass. Come on.
Archibald and Kassian also turned to fly the zone. Habs had a man on Nurse. A man on the boards blocking that path. And a man beside the net denying the reversal.
Nary an Oiler for any support.
There were MUCH better options that making a pass to the middle that gets picked off.
Nurse had possession and Nurse had room. He made a poor choice.
Archibald let a Habs forward get between him and Nurse along the boards. The Hab forward by the net had the reversal to Barrie closed offer. And the 3rd forward to had the takeway blocked the pass to Haas. Nurse chose the best option of the three. The Hab forward just made a good play.
Smith passed to the wrong D. And the Oilers wingers, Archibald and Kassian turned to fly the D zone too soon.
All that may very well be true.
Does not change the fact that Nurse, with time, made a bad choice.
If there were really zero options then why is he trying to finesse a pass up the middle instead of off the glass and out?
It was a poor play by a great player.
Tippet saving his timeouts for the playoffs…
Ugh. Can’t turn it over in a game like this. Put on the work boots now.