I was genuinely surprised this week by the Edmonton Oilers. It sometimes happens in good ways, like the time Connor McDavid decided he didn’t need at the money that the Oilers wanted to give him, or the time Ethan Bear went from a fifth-round pick to an actual NHL player.
This week’s surprise came out of the blue. The prospect blue. Look, I knew the organization was no longer attached to Caleb Jones, but was genuinely flummoxed when hearing the name Dmitri Samorukov in the Duncan Keith trade rumour. Now, I wrote about a fair deal for Keith yesterday, so don’t feel a need to write about it some more. However, I do think there’s something we can discuss with the name Samorukov out there today.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New DNB: How do Oilers fans feel about their team’s 2020-21 season?
- Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ next wave of prospects help them win a playoff series in 2022?
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- Jonathan Willis: How underappreciated Oilers defenceman Jeff Petry became a Canadiens mainstay
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
ONE MAN’S TREASURE
Among Oilers prospects, I have three defensemen ranked in the top-5 overall hopefuls. Dmitri Samorukov is one of them. He is a big man (6.03, 216), skates well, has a mean streak. He is a player I expect the Oilers value very much.
So, why is he reportedly available in a deal that also sends away Caleb Jones? Jones plays the same position. That means two of the men we might assume have a chance to play third-pair minutes in 2021-22 (and many moons beyond) could be heading out of town?
What’s the deal?
I think Ken Holland and his staff have Philip Broberg ahead of (or equal to) Samorukov in NHL-readiness. I don’t think that’s true based on the numbers and the reports I received from Sweden last winter, but it’s also true Broberg looks miles better in North America than he did in Sweden.
I also think the organization may like William Lagesson and Markus Niemelainen enough for them to believe both can play a third-pairing role now and in the future.
I don’t agree with dealing Jones or Samorukov for Duncan Keith. I wrote about it yesterday. I don’t believe this is going to look good in 2025 when reviewing the trade that appears imminent.
If Samorukov is in the deal, the only reasonable explanation is that Holland believes all of Broberg, Lagesson and Niemelainen are part of the plan as soon as this coming season, and that Samorukov isn’t a top prospect. I don’t agree with it, never saw it coming.
ASTROS 1971
I’ve done this before, but whenever a large group of players get together at one position in one organization it reminds me of the Houston Astros of 1971. In November of that year, the Astros traded 2B Joe Morgan, RHP Jack Billingham and a bunch of other really cool pieces for power-hitting 1B Lee May. May hit 39 homers in 1971, so he was bona fide, but the Reds got the better of the trade.
That’s not really the point of the story. The point of the story is the number of power-hitting 1B-OF’s the team had in their system during 1971. Here they are:
- John Mayberry, who also played for the Astros in 1971, would hit 243 more home runs before retiring in 1982.
- Cliff Johnson, who was in the minors, would hit 196 home runs before retiring in 1986.
- Bob Watson, who played for the Astros in 1971, would hit 161 more home runs before retiring in 1984.
- Mike Easler, who played in the low minors but would hit 118 home runs before retiring in 1987.
Point being? Edmonton probably has several second pairing defensemen in its system currently. I’ll hazard Jones, Samorukov and Broberg will all play there at points in what are likely to be significant careers. The reason for the Duncan Keith trade is that none of them are ready today. Keith, signing to a two-year deal, will likely give way to Broberg at some point in those two seasons.
Oilers are no longer building, and are about to trade away players who could be in the league for a long time without ever auditioning them at the NHL level. That runs counter with what I believe to be team building best practices, but there’s more than one way to build a railroad. I don’t agree with it. Trading quality entry-level talent before you know what the player is going to be is a recipe for disaster.
CRAZY 224 CONTINUED
I ranked 125 players this season, and have done so for several years now. I used three highly respected lists to crosscheck my rankings (Pronman, Wheeler, Red Line). There are 12 names inside my top 100 (below) where the player I ranked was either well down one or more lists or not there at all. This is a good year to trade in to the fifth round, and I say that seriously. If I were an NHL team, I’d have 10 picks, even if they’re at the end of the draft. Why not? This is nuts. Blue players have been listed before, silver players are new.
- LW Eric Alarie of the Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL) is in my top-25 overall and is outside the first round in all other rankings. Using three well respected lists, I’d estimate a mid-third round selection (say, No. 115) for this player. All I can tell you is that math is fond of Alarie and the progress he made.
- LC Cole Sillinger of Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL). This is a player I have rated outside the first round (No. 38) who could go inside the top-10 overall. I ranked him lower because of foot speed concerns and a general mistrust of the USHL-to-NHL-equivalencies I’ve been using for recent drafts. Sillinger is a significant prospect, his rise to the NHL would put to rest any questions about the USHL being a league equal to its CHL cousins.
- LC Sami Päivärinta, Lukko (U20 Sm-Sarja). Undersized two-way center played a major role on his junior team and at the U18 championships. Only one list aside from mine ranked him, and my number (56) is double on the other list. Maybe he’ll fall through the draft (he is a June 2003) but there is offense here.
- LW Zach Ostapchuk, Vancouver Giants (WHL). I have him No. 60 and he shows up on just one other ranking (as a fifth-rounder). I’m goin to respectfully disagree with the lists, Ostapchuk is 6.03, is a May 2003, and posted 7-9-16 in 22 WHL games. There’s a lot of track for this big man to improve before turning pro.
- RC Daniil Tesanov, Yaroslavl. Big center with speed and range. I have him No. 66, no one else has him (unless there’s some wonky spelling). He’s 6.03, 201, an August 2001, played four games in the KHL and scored 26 goals in 61 MHL games.
- LW Matvei Petrov, Moscow. Big winger (6.02, 178) can score, great shot. I have him No. 71, only one of the three major rankings has him at all and not inside the top-100 overall.
- RD Jacob Guévin, Muskegon Lumberjacks. Offensive defenseman, fine skater. I have him No. 72, he isn’t mentioned elsewhere. His USHL numbers (7-38-45 in 53 games) are impressive, he is a January 2003.
- LC Florian Elias, Mannheim. Small skill center, he’s a determined player. I have him No. 78, Red Line ranks him past No. 150 but does have him on their sleeper list.
- LD Vasily Machulin, Moscow Dynamo (MHL). Good size, dynamic skater, impressive player. I have him No. 87, he does not appear on any other list.
- LW Owen Pederson, Winnipeg Ice. Big winger with goal-scoring ability. I have him No. 96, one other resource ranked him but much lower due to speed.
- LC Theo Rochette, Quebec Remparts. Undersized two-way center, intriguing offense. I have him No. 98, not ranked elsewhere.
- LC Juuso Mäenpää, Kalpa. Very small but highly skilled playmaker.
- RW Josh Williams of the Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL) turned 20 in March and has been in the WHL since Diefenbaker was prime minister. The young man can score goals and that always has value, but speed is going to be a concern. This is the final year he is eligible and he might make an attractive free-agent signing this summer for the Oilers. I did not rank him but Williams is on a very respected list.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have a loaded show for a loaded week. John Horn, our tennis insider, updates on Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov, who both advanced to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for the first time on a memorable day in Canadian men’s tennis. At 10:40, Joey Alfieri from TSN690 will join us to discuss the big OT win by the Montreal Canadiens last night, and the SCF that seems to be getting better with each game. Finally, at 11, Scott Rafferty from DAZN and NBA Canada will help us make sense of a most unusual NBA final. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
NEW for The Athletic: Oilers 2021-22 roster projection, including trade and free agent targets
https://theathletic.com/2690270/2021/07/07/lowetide-oilers-2021-22-roster-projection-including-trade-and-free-agent-targets/
The reality of breaking in the young D is that this past season was the best time (for Bouchard and Jones). The second best time is next season, but the problem is you didn’t find out about Bouchard and Jones and now you throw Samorukov in the mix with Broberg not far behind. Not totally screwed; I would have all of Jones, Samorukov, and Bouchard in the starting six and leave Broberg a full season in the AHL.
Increasingly, though, it is clear that it is Woodcroft and not Tippett that is needed. If Tippett is gone after next season as many suspect, you may as well get the transition underway while there are still players to transition.
Tippett’s management of the D was a complete farce by the elimination game. He sat three of the best six defenders and didn’t trust three of the guys he did play. Think about that. How do the Keith advocates feel about having Tippett in their corner given his spotty record with D?
Maybe Keith’s son has nothing to do with all this. Maybe Keith saw Tipp play Koekkoek in the elimination game and said to himself, “now there’s a coach who won’t care about my declining underlying stats, relative to myself and team.”
I am a fan of Tippett’s work incorporating young forwards, but with D he is reading palms, crystal balls, and Tarot cards, i.e. mostly guessing and if he is behind the push for Keith…big gulp.
I was down the Oiler rabbit hole a while back. I can’t remember what piece it was.
One of Jesse’s coaches thought he would be tried at C over here. I believe that was the gist of it, but C for sure.
I think that would be a great idea. To me he plays like a C. That is what causes some positional issues for him.
He wants the puck and he wants to get it back. He roams at times, he likes to carry the puck. He is such a beast I think he would be very good at faceoffs.
He covers a lot of ice in his style. Actually an incredible amount.
I’d do it in a Tikkanen minute. 3 RC done. Drives his own line. Hairy ass line as Tippet’s security blanket in the D zone.
and now they need two top 6 right wingers (give or take a Kailer).
not sure they can get both Buchnevich and Rakkel……
JP just had one good season at RW playing with 97 and you want to make him a 3C at the NHL level, a position he has not played as a pro?
What could possibly go wrong?
Do you think Holland is getting asked about Jesse in his rounds?
“Nice job Ken, ready to get something for him? How about a 3rd and this guy?”
I would bet on it. Other GMs are seeing this kid who came back, great attitude, potted 15, and are watching players bounce off of him and get pissed, and Jesse isn’t even seemingly aware of it at the time.
Imagine if he gets some intent behind his impressive physical gifts (and keeps his health)?
He may never. That doesn’t matter really. They also see him stripping pucks off guys he doesn’t even seem to be near enough to. Disrupting plays all over the ice (yes sometimes the Oilers plays still).
What would you trade him for? I say it’s a good first or a really good player. Memories are short like in politics. Anything else isn’t enough, and if he was another team we’d be wanting him.
Just finished listening to Friedman’s hit on Vancouver radio today.
It wasn’t too much different from what he said on the 31 Thoughts podcast, but he pretty much just reiterated that there is a block going on, and that block is money. He seemed pretty clear that the Oilers just don’t want to take on the full 5.5 despite being very interested in the player, and that is what is stopping this.
I am leaning towards 3 distinct possibilities at this point:
1) The trade doesn’t materialize. Blackhawks won’t cave on the price, Oilers won’t take on the full cap hit, Chicago keeps the player and both teams move on.
2) The Oilers cave but the price drops slightly. Internal discussions eventually break way to the “we need Keith” crowd, and the Oilers bring in Keith with maybe only a million or so retained. Because of this, the price is lower than reported, with maybe only Jones, or a lesser prospect going out. No bad contract headed East, sadly.
3) Holland grinds it out and gets the player cheap. With the Oilers unwilling to budge on taking on a cap hit north of 3 million, Keith only willing to be sent to one team, and Chicago desperate to find any savings they can, the Hawks buy him out. They receive modest cap savings for the next 2 seasons, and the Oilers get their guy at a much cheaper price.
After yesterday, I was starting to become convinced that the Oilers were going to part ways with Jones + a prospect for Keith. Although this is still a possibility, I think the deal would have already been done by now if that is the case. Elliott’s reporting has somewhat reassured me that the Oilers recognize that they can’t be paying whatever price to make this happen.
Fingers crossed. I had the disgusting thought this afternoon of possibly losing Jones via trade and then Benson via expansion draft. Let’s hope to god not.
I have a suspicion that management really does value the player and think he can help the current but simply know they can’t take on the current cap hit, or near it, without bad cap out (for both years).
I can see them “paying more” in order to get a large retained salary agreement.
The deal only makes sense for both sides iis if the Blackhawks take Koskinen. Yes, Wirtz has to spend a little actual money buying him out (but he is not a poor owner), and he gets $4 million more in cap space this year and next.
If the Blackhawks don’t take Koskinen, then they pretty much have to do the full 50% retention to make it plausible for the Oilers, and Chicago would only get $2.75 million more in cap space this year and next.
50% retention?
Keith is a third pairing D who can’t PK and won’t play on the PP. Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, and Chara all play for less than a million, is Keith better than any of those guys? Incidentally, I believe all those players play a special teams role.
Keith’s actual cap value is <1 mil, and if he were a free agent he’s a league minimum candidate.
The other question is, who cares about helping the ‘Hawks? We took Manning off their hands and passed on DeBrincat, let them figure out Keith on their own.
Keith would be deployed in the top 4 the above mentioned are all forwards.
When did xGF become the panacea of fancy stats?
Doesn’t it rely heavily on HD shot metrics, which are already acknowledged to be flawed (velocity of shot from said location, not distinguishing between who takes the shot, game state, who’s the goalie, etc)?
It’s not a panacea, but they show Keith has undergone a step-wise decline. He has gone from being generally at or above team xGF% to mostly underperforming team xGF% the last five seasons.
Perhaps the stats are flawed. Below, many argue that the Blackhawks have gotten worse and it is this that accounts for the apparent decline in Keith’s numbers.
Perhaps…Keith has gotten worse? Maybe the team is worse because Keith is worse?
No one has found me the D who has declined in this fashion and still managed to be top 4.
The fervour with which Keith is being defended is fascinating. Or bizarre. On the heels of the Devin Shore riot, I suppose a heated discussion on a third pairing D who can’t PK was inevitable.
EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) Tweeted:
Okay, we did a little digging into this using a simple blending of our GAR and xGAR projections (and I was kind of wrong).
Team Canada Defensemen:
Theodore – Makar
D. Toews – Hamilton
Muzzin – Weegar
Girard/Chabot – Spurgeon/Petro
Top 6 are somewhat clear, next two are harder
https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1412570885891018752?s=20
EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) Tweeted:
For fun, let’s do Team USA
Team USA Defensemen:
Chychrun – McAvoy
Werenski – Fox
Gostisbehere – Petry
Slavin/Q. Hughes – Carlson/Pesce
The top 4 here are somewhat clear imo and the rest are harder I think.
https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1412573886030356483?s=20
Towes above Chabot shows how the statistical models at EvolvingWild are flawed.
Chabot is a better player, hands down. Towes, fine in his own right, is being polished by the rest of his team and playing in a weak division.
You might want to take a closer look at Chabot’s fancies.
Exactly why using models alone to make determinations is highly flawed.
What are you seeing there that you don’t like? Have you looked?
I find it very tough to trust their models in general. Some of their salary projections are just wild, including Barrie and, prior, Nuge (which had increasing AAV as the term increased from 5-8 years).
I agree the salary predictions were out there.
I assume it was because the input data ignores the Covid cap (much like NHL arbitrators are apparently instructed to??).
I paid $5 to look at their salary predictions for next year and didn’t really even look because they were obviously way high.
That D group would get owned by any team with some crust and trapping.
There is a reason that every D man in the league isn’t all offense, or all defense.
Somebody has to do the dirty work and keep the puck out of the net. Somebody has to move the puck to the scorers.
Of course the opposition would actually have to get possession of the puck…no easy matter against that group.
I like the top 4 but Muzzin ahead of Nurse seems to be driven by teammates more than ability/results attributed to the player.
Nurse is absolutely driven by his teammates.
totally agree – Nurse is the next Pietrangelo – need someone to block out the house, skate miles while still adding offence. So glad the Oilers have him and didn’t give him the Petry treatment. .
In no particular order….
Nurse Parayko
Toews Makar
Theodore Hamilton
Chabot Pieterangelo
Morrisey Doughty
Maybe Girard, Pelech, Pulock, Ekblad, and Weegar also get consideration.
That is the pool of D.
Did they put Muzzin in as a joke selection?
No Nurse? No Way.
This describes the biggest negative perfectly. A fool and their money are soon parted. If it happens Holland becomes punk worthy.
Not looking to trade Samurokov especially for a washed up Keith
but theres no way our D Corp in 1-2 years has Bouchard Broberg Samurokov and a relatively inexperience Bear making up 4/6 spots. There’s no way Holland is gonna do that
Trade them when they are established for better returns
Bear turns 25 this year.
Piss or get off the pot. Who knows if it’s true but reading they weren’t happy with his conditioning? If true, really? Move on then before he doesn’t have value.
For all players. If they can’t do the job post 23 years old well enough the team should be looking to move on. I’m not saying top pair or hot top 6 forward, but at least bottom 2 pairings or middle 6.
Most good NHL players don’t need 7+ years post draft to find their way, and you don’t want not good players ideally.
Pro sports, dog lives.
If you replace Bear with a solid player for Nurse, maybe it’s Bouch in a year or two. That is what elite players do. If not find your Rutta – a really nice quiet D that gets it done with Hedman.
Larsson can carry a talented younger LD. Then they need the 3 RD to help one of Bro or Samu.
That is what the teams with good D do.
The slow boil is a myth that Holland debunked himself. When they are ready they are ready. Only cap issues should inhibit talent that is ready. Or not having enough older players and nobody to lead the group, but the Oilers core is now at the age that they are the leaders.
A few vet top 6 and done, doesn’t matter after that like it did last season and before.
Yes.
And as Godot has mentioned, if Larsson is retained, his job is/will become running a finishing school for the talented young leftorium coming up over the tenure of his deal.
Ryan Graves.
Two of those three are top 10, high pedigree/potential picks with an elite skill each and the third may have the broadest skill set of the three and an over-all skillset that, to me, is perfect for today’s game.
With Larsson, Nurse, and maybe, Klef, as the veterans, I could see it.
Some “experience” can be picked up in-season, Mike Green style.
Top 10 what?
It says right in the post.
Top 10 pedigree/potential?
Likely neither would get picked in the top 10 in a re-draft since others have already passed them.
Didn’t see your reply and ended up regurgitating a poorer version of your post.
There is an increasing contingent of Oiler fans who want the team to draft well but who, paradoxically, don’t want young players on the team.
Strange times.
If they can all play, why does it matter?
Bouchard and Broberg are former top 10 picks. Bear is a former WHL D man of the year who has first pairing experience.
Samorukov was dominant in the KHL and is 22.
Exactly
I’d part with Jones and Neal if Keith and Strome are coming back. Throw in a 4th need be.
If Strome can have a + goal diff as 3C between Kahun/Holloway and Archibald/Kassian than he deserves a tiny raise.
Spend UFA money on Larsson, 1LW, and 1G
Jones+Neal (or Koskinen) for Keith retained to $3m cap hit + Strome and swap first round picks.
Otherwise we’re still just taking their problems (Keith=age/cap & Strome=poor fit) and helping their rebuild while taking on cap for the trouble.
If it’s Koskinen, we’re adding about $600k in cap as per above, but CHI has him off their books a year sooner. More for Neal, although the second year balances it out a bit.
I do not believe that those 2 players are involved in trade discussions for Keith unless it’s part of a bigger package. No way Holland pisses away good prospects for nothing. I say all the news we are hearing is a smoke screen for what is really happening.
I will say though that some of these players can be used as leverage to get good players a little further along in their careers. Holland isn’t an idiot and he isn’t Our previous GM
Amen!
The skittishness around giving real opportunity to Jones and Samorukov is baffling.
Romanov played a full season with the Habs at age 20 with positive underlying numbers and a goal share of 50. Samorukov is 22 with two pro seasons under his belt. He was dominant this past season in the KHL at evens. At 6’3, he is as big as Larsson and an inch shy of Nurse. What is so crazy about Samorukov playing 3 LD?
Jones has two straight seasons of an xGF of 50. Two years ago, playing with Larsson on the second pair, his GF% was 52. This past season, his GF% was terrible (38) with a low PDO (960). He made some mistakes but also did some good things.
In 17-18, Keith had an xGF% of 49 and a GF% of 40 with a PDO of 970. Different levels of comp, but Jones’ most recent season is similar to Duncan Keith of 17-18. But Jones has played less than 100 games and can conceivably get better, whereas Keith has been declining for six seasons.
Keith advocates of 2021 who presumably don’t trust Jones would not have trusted Keith in 2017. Any permutation of Jones, Samorukov, and salary dump (Kass, Neal, Koskinen) for Keith is a grotesque mistake.
Now this is as I recall by memory, but prior to last season when Klefbom was playing hurt the team had an abysmal record when he was out of the lineup.
My entirely unscientific explanation is that the team around him has not only improved (personnel) but matured. This should, at least in part, explain the record during his absence of late.
It’s interesting, a lot of Klefbom’s minutes were on the PP.
I just checked, and Nurse has lead the Oilers D in 5v5 TOI in each of the past 4 seasons (never less than 18:53/game of TOI). I had no idea. Pretty remarkable minutes he’s been playing, even back when a lot of folks thought he wasn’t much good.
I agree on Klefbom being more 2LD than 1LD (I guess he actually was, though that’s not what I was meaning to highlight). The conundrum with Klefbom is that his SF% (and to a lesser degree his xGF% and other numbers) were strong for years while his GF% was in the toilet.
16-17 remains the only season he’s had a PDO of 1000 or better. It’s rare to see that type of disconnect between shot and goal measures persist (and to that degree).
I dunno, I guess he grades out pretty well by TOI and Pts/GP measures. I hope he can come back at some point, but I agree the team doesn’t *need* him.
Roster flaws and errors in development are magnified in the playoffs. Isn’t there something funny about how the season ended?
Tippett didn’t want to develop Jones and Bouchard. He benched Bear. He benched Kulikov, ironically the player brought in to temper Tippett’s distrust of the young D. He had an affinity for Koekkoek that could not be explained by any metric. In the final game, Tippett only had three or four D that he trusted to play in OT, and that’s with all of Kulikov, Bouchard, and Jones wearing suits. Effectively, Tippett chose his guys, and over the course of sixty minutes, abandoned all trust in Tippett’s guys.
It is very difficult for me — perhaps not others — to look back and say with certainty, “yes, Jones, Kulikov, and Bouchard were not among the best six Oiler D.” That means there is a strong argument to be made the Oilers scratched three of their top six D in a playoff elimination game.
You reap what you sow. There absolutely is a hole, roster-wise, scouting-wise, common-sense wise, analytics-wise, communication-wise between coaches and management, etc. That hole may as well be a crater.
Duncan Keith has not had an xGF% of 50 since 2015-2016. Six seasons ago. Between 2007-2016, he had an xGF of 50 or greater every single year. It has been under 50 every year since then.
The player has declined, and that decline started six years ago. The question is whether or not the decline is small enough in magnitude to still play effective second pairing minutes.
Let’s look a little closer, just at xGF.
In 16-17 and 17-18, his xGF was 48.1, 48.7. In 18-19, 19-20, it was 46.4, 46.8. Last season, it was 41.2.
This suggests, at least by xGF%, there is a decline from Keith’s peak that has progressed over six seasons in discrete, step-wise fashion. The first decline from 16-18 (48.x), the next at 18-20 (46.x), and the next in 20-21 (41.2).
Let’s say Duncan Keith was a first pairing D in his prime. If a first pairing D undergoes three discrete steps of decline, is that a second pairing D? I think it is legitimately crazy to count on such an outcome, even accounting for a slight change in usage.
My counter-example to this is Chara. The man is a machine:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&playerid=8465009&sit=5v5&stype=2
No step-wise decline for Chara, and he is now playing a lesser role for Washington at a cap hit near the league minimum.
There is no market for Keith at a 5.x, 4.x, 3.x, or even 2.x cap hit. A trade including Caleb Jones? Hah! I won’t even comment on including Samorukov. Keith is a bottom pairing D, perhaps a very good one, but if you are counting on anything else you are engaging in magical thinking.
For the Keith advocates out there, I would challenge you with the following: show me a top four D (or top pairing D) who has declined for six or more years in step-wise fashion and was still a top 4 D at the end of that period.
I’m not advocating for Keith or Keith at 2LD but wouldn’t one expect a top minutes player on a terrible team to have poor expected goal numbers?
6th or 7th in the central for 4 years and the two years prior to this one, Keith was played 41-43% of his TOI against elites – with little help.
Hawks are a bad team and Keith gets…progressively worse over six seasons? Why not just stay at a consistent level of mediocre to bad?
The step-wise decline in an aging player is what concerns me.
Does anybody know if XGF% actually relates to outcomes in any tangible way?
How about WAR? LTs approach to the draft is based on common sense, the more talent to score the more likely an NHL career. Especially an impactful one.
As far as I understand only basic stats inform much reliably. There aren’t enough data points a
available to the public to spend the years trying to piece together a more team encompassing metric to shed light on individual players. There is little context unless it’s added by the person sussing it out.
Get better players than you have and use them properly (depth).
Be aware of what makes players successful when it counts. To me players thats players with enough drive. They don’t back down, they aren’t massively flawed, they work hard to stay good and get better.
And they have enough self confidence to get things done when it’s hard and they have a chance.
The Oilers loaded up on top 6 scoring players last season. The stats looked promising. Most shat the bed. Why?
Why were they unable to play as well at the most important time?
I don’t let the coaches off that hook either. 2 in a row, flat and unable to even hit their reg season level let alone take it up a notch. Even with Smith playing well enough.
To be fair the Hawks have gotten progressively worse over last 6 years
xGF% by season for Chicago, and Keith (both at 5v5):
07-08 49.2 50.3
08-09 52.7 52.4
09-10 56.6 56.1
10-11 51.9 51.9
11-12 51.6 52.1
12-13 53.1 52.4
13-14 55.3 56.4
14-15 50.8 52.8
15-16 48.5 50.5
16-17 49.0 48.1
17-18 50.2 48.7
18-19 45.8 46.4
19-20 46.9 46.8
20-21 43.9 41.9
Player? Team?
Keith has underperformed team xGF 4 of the past 5 seasons.
Between 10-11 and 15-16, six seasons, that happened once. That one season, he was still over 52 xGF%.
I think that’s another sign of decline.
If that’s your take-home from this that’s fine.
But my goodness you’re splitting hairs in saying 4 of his last 5 seasons were worse than team.
My take-home is that player performance has tracked remarkably closely with team performance every season. In his entire career (well, the 14 seasons that NST goes back) he’s never varied more than +/- 2.0% from the team result. Not once.
The ‘decline’ you describe in your original post is almost entirely explained by decline of the team around him (which of course he’s a part of). I don’t think anyone is arguing he’s not in decline either, just how severe it’s been.
Holding up his 41.9% xGF% this season and declaring ‘he’s terrible’ completely ignores that he’s part of a terrible team.
Keith is a stop gap. If they get him.
Just as many are not chuff with the idea, some alternatives also don’t make sense.
For example Graves. He’s 26, and not a strong proven two way. This season decent, better numbers the year before. But he’s being pumped for sure on that team.
He’s over 3M last contract. He’ll be an expensive long term re up. And the assets will be steep to acquire him.
At the same time you have two LD in the system close to ready for NHL that have far higher ceilings. And one that might see Graves level in Niemenen.
Unless you can turn those guys into solid returns that is a bad idea. But if they don’t see the NHL you won’t get the full returns.
Graves or the like blocks Samu and Bro. Graves doesn’t compliment Larsson. He needs a mobile puck able player to be at his best, that is consistent.
You can’t pay G 5M to play with the 3 RD.
Keith is a better fit with Larsson, is off the books in 2, and can sign a 1M contract like so many other old guys to play on a team he likes to keep playing and have stability.
He can replace Krusty in that role. Allowing Bro and Samu onto the team in 1-3 years giving Holland high end ELCs and excellent trade beans.
Whoa, do you mean Niemelainen?
Yes, he had a nice development season and put himself back on the map but I wouldn’t say he’s close to NHL ready and I would say that he remains a distant bell. I did like his game in Bakersfield though – he moved the puck much better than I anticipated.
You watched it the most, my point is that Graves is no world beater. I think he’s an interesting player, but he and Oleksiak are being pumped by the talent they play with.
They would be underwhelming for the good guys almost certainly.
Graves would be a perfect fit with Tyson Barrie.
For the Kraken.
On the Canucks or Flames.
Kenny? Is that you?
Yes don’t tell anyone. I’m not supposed to be here.
I like the Neal for Keith trade. But if he waves the MNC for the trade, could you then expose him to Seattle?
Yes.
But Seattle wouldn’t take him at his full cap hit so the Oilers would be stuck with him.
Moving the same cap hit for a player doing a significant job is the win.
The Keith hating is vastly overblown. Neal can no longer contribute. The win with him is his buyout compared to Lucic. Both don’t do enough.
This isn’t bad either in that if the Oilers are looking to trade for another D, you don’t want to use up a position on the protected list. So, if Seattle takes him, it would be like dumping Neal for nothing. If he is kept, you turned a 4th line waiver player into a 2D with 1M less cap. That is what I call a win-win.
If this deal goes down anywhere near what’s being reported then I think I’m done with this franchise and the NHL. Duncan Keith at 38 is leading this team nowhere and McDavid-Drai will be gone soon enough much to the delight of the NHL head office. Been 30 years of tears and frustration this October since Mess got traded and the demolition of a dynasty that started with Coffey and Gretz being traded was completed. Thirty years of crap aside from a couple of months of fun spring 2006. Even the pleasure of watching McDavid and Drai is muted by the way the NHL sanctions WWF rules that hobble their skill players. That little pr*ck Bettman is actually proud of that is the cherry. But for the Oilers, Holland might as well stick a pistol in the mouth of the franchise if this deal goes down as reported.
Smyth-Weight Oilers say thanks for caring.
One of the things that Holland seemed to be better at than Chiarelli was suppressing the leaks. If the calls are coming from inside the house again, does that mean the OBC are back to playing patty cake with the MSM?
The Big Brother household seems functional compared to Oilers HQ.
What if Holland is good at suppressing leaks which makes those who leak the news run with anything they can get. Which causes it to become contorted like the telephone game.
I remember reading the likes of Friedman and other insiders expressing doubt about the Oilers signing Nuge and then waking up the next day to find out Nuge was signed to an 8 year contract…
The Oil do enought to genuinely suprise me that I limit genuine surprise for when they genuinely do something..
Right but not LT genuine surprise.
i.e. Keith for anyone? Surprise!
A different perspective from Spector. Not sure I agree with it totally.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-decision-veteran-duncan-keith-hinges-intangibles-not-numbers/
Spector said on Stauffer today that the Oilers would take Keith and his contract straight up if they could, that’s nuts.
If the OIlers are taking the contract whole, they shouldn’t be giving anything back…okay, a 7th round draft pick, to make Gary happy. And the deal should be effing done already.
Patrick Marleau came with a 1st round draft pick for one year.
Two interesting things I found about that article:
1) Spector is almost talking like the trade is a certainty at this point, although that could just be the way it came out
2) He seemed pretty adamant that a Larsson signing is a guarantee
I found it interesting that a former player and current exec said that it was imperative that the Oilers get Keith as he would help the team with those intangibles so many speak of.
I get it, easy for them to say but still interesting.
This is bad, even for Spec.
TB, LA, and CHI did not bring in older guys to play prominent roles. Bringing in those types to play in the bottom six or bottom pairing is fine, but you don’t want to bring them in on big cap hits to play feature roles.
The annoying part of development is you need to give the guys some games. This process could have been accelerated with Jones and Bouchard this season, but here we are.
There needs to be a concerted effort to get the young guys into the lineup.
I liken the situation to being alive.
If you want a long, rich, full life, there are things you can do to maximize the chances of this. Eat healthy, exercise, practice mindfulness, meditate, read, not follow the Oilers.
I say ‘maximize the chances’ as you never know, you may get hit by a bus tomorrow. At least your name will be neatly stitched into your underwear, eh?
But as above must be true, sadly the below must also be true. There are behaviors and actions that will affect your chances of said long happy life negatively. Pretty mush the opposite of what’s written above.
And so it is with our beloved hockey team. Good behaviors? Draft well, spend picks wisely, manage that cap, get good player, keep good players. The bad? Bet on aging players with no replacement strategy. Alienate and mismanage prospects. Use valuable assets and cap space to bring in said aging players. Etc, etc.
Of course, using the right spin, everything I have said can be refuted or proven wrong. People will resort to outliers. Outliers like their grandad who smoked everyday and drank like a fish and lived to be 94. Or the 25yo health nut who suddenly had a heart attack.
But for the rest of us people in the median, we all know the bad behaviors – but damn it, sometimes that itch has to be scratched.
I wonder if they’ll throw in Seabrook for the rights to Omark? Make a proper second pair.
I’ll add to this, if there is concern about not having veteran back up at 2 LHD, why not get someone like Kulikov who can also PK?
Spec’s piece on the intangibles is overstated. Who was the greybeard who taught the Lightening how to win? How about when Chicago won three cups in five seasons? How about LA?
All of these teams had many good players in the primes of their careers.
Let the young guys play. Need veteran help on LHD? Sign Kulikov or someone of that ilk.
My vote goes to Jones and Samorukov.
The answer to that is quite easy. Because Kulikov cant skate, can’t pass, can’t PK, and gives the puck up waaaay too much. Simple really.
That’s not fair. He can skate. literally a true thing.
Taking Keith with no salary retained and absolutely nothing going back to Chicago is a loss for the oilers. Who are we competing with to get Keith? This is a salary dump for Chicago
I think Oiler GMs like to compete with themselves.
Jesus H if that ain’t the last 15 years.
I was going to comment on here that buying out Keith may make the most sense for Chicago – despite what Stauff says – because if not traded nor bought out, Keith could threaten retirement and screw the Blackhawks with a steep cap recapture penalty.
But after looking into it, I don’t think this is the case. If anyone is more familiar with CRPs, or if this has been covered in another thread, please let me know.
From what I can read, the cap recapture penalty is just the net cap benefit accrued over the previous years of the contract, split over the term left on the contract. My math might be a bit off, but I think Keith’s current net cap benefit sits at +$7,476,924. Split over the remaining two years, this would mean the Hawks are left with a 3.7 million dollar cap hit over the next two years in terms of CRP.
If this is accurate, then that would represent a savings of $1,800,000 over each of the next two years – compared to his original 5.5 mil cap hit. In that case, it would actually be better for Keith to retire than be bought out for the Hawks, which eliminates my original idea that Keith had that leverage.
Can anyone confirm if this is accurate?
I had eyeballed a similar number as well ~7.5m when I posted about it another thread here a few days ago.
I’m literally the last person to was about the CBA, but would Chicago not incur both the CRP and the buyout cap hit as well?
If so that would be another $4m x 2 years plus 600k x 2 years.
I think your numbers are correct – the $7.5M penalty was confirmed by PuckPedia (granted, they were discussing Keith playing this year, then retiring next summer)…but the recapture penalty is still the same
With that said, Puckpedia mentioned the penalty was $5.5M in year 1, and $2M in year 2. I’m not certain how these numbers are calculated, or if the allocation of the penalty changes if he retires this summer, as opposed to next summer
scroll down, the tweet was on July 2
https://twitter.com/puckpedia?lang=en
I would think that Keith would only retire if he had the blessing of the Blackhawks
He doesn’t NEED their blessing, but with his standing within the organization and city, I don’t think he retires unless the Blackhawks are on board
Why would Chicago endorse a Keith retirement..?
-they’d save $3.6M in real money…that ain’t nothing
-they’d have a $7.5M cap penalty spread over 2 years- That is ugly
-I’m not sure Chicago would ever endorse a Keith retirement, they’d probably just say ‘hey, we couldn’t trade you in summer 2021, play one more year for us and we’ll try again in summer ’22”
Why would Keith retire..?
-if he retires, he gets nothing from his current contract
-he could however, sign an 8 year deal* with the Oilers for $2.5M/year, thus recouping his lost earnings
*kidding
edit- it’s not a bad idea, certainly a new take on the Keith discussion
Lots of fans seem to be drinking the Holland Kool-Aid after two consecutive playoff busts.*
Seems reasonable. We shouldn’t expect competitiveness yet with only 2 Hart Trophy winners in the lineup.
*2020 loss was actually a play-in loss. Yep, that makes it worse.
To a team that shouldn’t have made the play-offs that contained Duncan Keith. It is a confusing time for a lot of people here.
What does this mean? What fans are drinking the Holland kool aid?
The Keith business is craziness on all levels.
Jones had a good stretch as a top 4 D two seasons ago and Samorukov had a season in the KHL that is similar to what Romanov did. Does any D prospect in the system have the skillset of Samorukov? Is any NHL team looking to move a D prospect with a similar skillset?
Forget about Holland for a second.
I am absolutely flummoxed that intelligent people on here truly believe that Keith can play second pairing D and they are willing to pay prospect capital and/or cap space to make it happen. This opinion is backed by anecdotal reports from Blackhawks fans, that available analytics are limited, and that certain stats don’t correlate from season to season.
The simple truth is Keith will be 38, has been declining for several seasons, and therefore cannot be counted on to be anything but a third pairing D. LT talks about reasonable expectations. It is not a reasonable expectation for Keith to thrive in a second pairing role.
Speak!
I think Keith will be better than anyone we played at 2LD last year.
Doesn’t been we should be paying 5.5 mills and giving up a player and a prospect
I agree with Jimmy that Keith will probably be better than anyone who played 2LD for the Oilers last year.
And also agreed here that if the Oilers give up a player and significant prospect to pay Keith his full $5.5M, we’ll that’s a terrible idea.
I really don’t think that’s what it will look like once (if) the deal is done though. If it does, I’ll get my pitchfork and bag of feathers out of the shed as well. I hear someone has tar?
I’m not saying he’s worth $5.5 mill. In fact, I have expressly argued that we need a cap neutral deal. But he’s still better than anyone we had at 2LD last year.
In the Oiler media (CoH, Journal, Oilersnation, BLH) more than a few NHL scouts and employed people spoken to feel Keith used appropriately for his age is still good.
Good skater still, extremely fit and still a fierce competitor. One said he practices like he plays – balls out. Which is a trait of most elite players.
One felt his example is really strong for young players because he is a quiet type, but like Connor prepares so hard and well, it really raises the bar for others lacking that internal drive. As it was many decades ago in Edmonton. He also likes helping out younger D with guidance.
Nurse and Larsson and Krusty I’m sure do that. Really Nurse is the one that would have the most to offer being the best, but he’s only a few years older than them at this point.
The main thing is to pair him correctly because he attacks aggressively. All the time. If his partner is in la la land, reads plays slowly, or is windy (brain farter), no, it won’t look good.
Larsson seems like a solid fit there to me. As I said before while maybe there are better LD in the league, they aren’t falling off trees this UFA season, and Keith turns Larsson’s pair from D zone zero offense to 2 way and joining the play with a clue.
I think the Oilers attraction to Keith is that there is not many other LDs on the market this year. Without Klefbom they have a huge hole on the 2nd d pair. Last year it was a big concern going into the season. Nurse explodes but who knows – he could regress this year too. Who is behind Nurse? Russell? Jones? Lagesson?
Lots of third pairing guys but no one that should play up the lineup. (Although Russell can in a pinch)
They’ve got a couple guys coming in Broberg and Samurokov, but at most those guys are third pairing, maybe next year. There is a chance that Broberg pops but it would be better for him to knock off an incumbent than be handed a role.
There is better options than Keith out there – Graves seems to be a younger, more solid option. The UFA crop looks weak, ripe for overpays.
I understand why the Oilers are looking at Keith. He wants to be here, he’s got major experience and pedigree, and they can cash someone they might lose in the expansion draft anyways.
Not saying this’ll work out but I understand their motivation.
The new way to play is over-achieving ELCs and do your homework on real value contracts. When Stauffer is like this, it means Keith is penciled in as top pairing.
You think he plays ahead of Nurse?
With the amount of crazy going on? Oiler management logic says Nurse has no stanley cups and finished 7th in Norris voting. Keith can beat that.
Who thought Smith would be (still) our #1 goalie?
Who thought Mike Smith would post the #7 SV%?
Also, decent chance he isn’t even the starter come September.
Crazy!
It is. What would be the odds he can replicate this season? More worryingly, who is his replacement? We know Koskinen has an untradeable contract and cannot carry the load for extended periods of time. We know 39yos don’t, as a rule, heal as fast or are as resilient as 29yos.
I recently moved from Peace River to Hinton. Company paid for it. Moving company were great, but didn’t give us a moving date until a week before we HAD to be out of our old house.
I asked, “what’s Plan B?” “How do you mean, Plan B?” They replied. “If you can’t find a driver, what’s Plan B?” “I’ll talk to my manager” 10 minutes pass and the phone rings, “it’s gone up to the VP of Operations – Plan B is you rent a U-Haul, drive yourself and submit a claim to us.”
So, here we have a scenario where, if everything went right (it did, thank goodness) then I wasn’t out of pocket, a wonderful team would come and pack my shit while I sat in the sun with Mrs. Tull drinking the very finest sour beer Alberta has to offer. But one small thing goes wrong, and i’m making multiple 1000km round trips in a sweat box on wheels and likely divorced.
What’s Kenny’s Plan B?
Important to remember Smith WAS plan B.
Holland has said he’d like to re-sign Smith, and the Oilers have Koskinen and Stalock under contract for next season. The NHL hockey season hasn’t even ended yet, there’s an expansion draft in a few weeks, then UFA season to follow.
But the sky is falling because Koskinen/Stalock are currently plan B?
Not good that he’ll be a top 10 goalie again. Being an average goaltender, either in tandem or as backup seems likely.
I disagree we know these things. Koskinen has been a league average goaltender over the course of his 3 years in the league. I think he could be traded with 50% retained.
Also, he’s been a league average goaltender over 3 years. I think everyone who follows the Oilers would like to upgrade him, but he’s not actually truly terrible. I think Holland will try to upgrade, but plan B being an incumbent league average goaltender (with arguably another in Stalock) isn’t the end of the world.
My guess for what actually will happen (once Holland has a chance to make transactions), is that he’ll make a play for some of the UFA goalies (Dreidger we keep hearing about, maybe also Ullmark, Grubauer or other). If he strikes out there, maybe he looks at trade options.
Failing all those things then yeah, it’s conceivable we could be faced with Smith as plan A, Koskinen/Stalock as plan B. Even if it comes to that, it sounds better than the plan B you were presented with TBH.
Jones and Samorukov for Keith (no retain) is absolute buffoonery! They could do way better if they’re sending both those guys away. Salary Cap is the most important currency for the next few years. I think those 2 guys and a 2nd or 3rd rounder would get you pretty close to a top pair guy with the flat cap. This is madness.
Remember when Hall was traded for Larsson and everyone, even the media, was like, “just waiting for the NHL to send out details of the rest of the deal”, because everyone was sure it wasn’t a one-for-one swap? Good times.
Let’s play “would you rather”.
Would you rather Duncan Keith, full cap-hit for a good prospect, or spend two second rounders on AA?
So now we’re playing what’s worse?
I’ve got one. Don’t make a trade for Keith. Punto final!
Lol, no, we’re playing ‘would you rather’. Clue is in the title!
Would you rather use cap space to round out the roster at goal and a scoring top 6 winger, or, use legit assets and cap space to secure a 37yo D and 39yo G because you believe these will put you over the top?
No. You’re playing what’s worse lol?
What’s worse is that none of these scenarios are mutually exclusive.
Depends what good prospect means. If it’s Jones I take Keith.
I strongly felt Holland threw away those 2 picks because despite a 30 goal season, Athanasiou is one of those players that can’t (won’t) establish. And his 30 season was a year removed (and was his highest career SH%), he had 10 the year before Holland overpayed dearly for him.
He was 25, not exactly young and being a goof from lack of experience/maturity.
Talent isn’t what is in short supply, it’s talent directed by a realistic brain and a ferocious work effort that is.
I also don’t see Jones as having a high ceiling. Great skating and has skill, I feel he won’t ever put all the pieces together to establish as a top 4 over time, although he’ll get cracks at it because of the abilities he does have.
Plus he would be gone anyway, lose a lesser prospect and get something for him. Despite the verbal about cap they can handle Keith. Just have to get creative and actually f’ing do something if they want to loosen more up, you know, like the good GM’s do.
Sportslogiq breaks down Keith’s value.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/analyzing-impactful-duncan-keith-new-team/sn-amp/
Severalli with the top 10 buyout candidates.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-10-buyout-candidates-this-nhl-offseason/
So Yandle, Johnson and DeAngelo may be available for near-league-minimum next year. Makes any Keith deal seem even sillier.
Yep…that was my first thought too.
Without looking, I’m going to take a wild stab and predict that there’s at least one Oiler on this list.
All the pollyannas will soon realize…
#kennyisnotagrinder?
Where there’s smoke there’s fire as I believe this deal will happen. I imagine Bowman and Holland go way way back and after being a life long Hawk for almost 20 years Keith isn’t asking out for shits and giggles. I believe the Hawks are going hard for Seth and what’s a better carrot than being able to play with your Bro like the Potvin’s are the Watson’s of yesteryear. Mikko and Caleb For Keith makes the most sense from where I’m standing.
Why does it make sense that we take on Keith’s total 2nd yr salary? It doesn’t to me when Darnell needs to be paid.
Mikko’s done in Edmonton we have lots of money to pay Nurse unless you believe Kelfbom is coming back and if that’s the case why would Holland have any interest in Keith to begin with.
You are not valuing CAP space properly. Oscar coming or going does not affect the value of Keith. Oscar is a totally separate matter. Darnell needs to be paid having Keith full value 2nd yr will make it difficult to add depth and maneuver. If Keith is in the equation it’s either 2 mill retained to make Keith value at 3 mill or they need to take Neal back to even out the CAP. The most valuable asset is cap space. Especially in a flat cap space the next few years.
None of the proposals make sense. Because Oilers!
Sorry, that smoke might be my fault. I’ve got a big fire going to heat up that cast iron cauldron… The tar is getting nice and soft.
Now who was getting the feathers?
There’s no way Holland is trading Sami as a throw in unless Strome is coming back with Keith. If we can replace Mikko salary with a better goalie which won’t be difficult add a 2LD and a 3C who’s buddies with Mcdavid and dispose of Neal’s salary with a buyout or a cap dump with another team this in my opinion would be the Cat’s ass.
I’ll say one thing. Stauffer sounds a little unhinged with his effusive praise of Keith. While I am convinced Keith will look a lot better in Edmonton and can be a useful addition to the team, Stauffer is off his rocker if he thinks Keith is worth anything near $5 mill.
Aren’t intangibles worth at least $5-10M per year?
Regular season doesn’t mean squat unless you don’t make the real season. What was Josh Anderson goal worth yesterday people that come through in the crunch get payed.
Josh Anderson has been a major disappointment for Montreal in the playoffs.
He didn’t even play well last night, despite his two goals – he did score a game-winning goal last night and a beauty.
Of course, if he would have shown up at all in the first three games, maybe the goal would have meant a little more.
Nothing different than his rants about Seabrook. Same tune.
I believe any trade with Duncan Keith the most valuable asset is CAP SPACE. I can’t say it loud enough. So why are we helping Chicago expedite their rebuild and possibly hurting our chances at adding more pieces to get to the next round in the chase for the SC.
Tyler Johnson being on the 3rd and 4th line show the depth Tampa has. So why are we sending away good prospects and hamstring our CAP? I hope KH feels CAP space has lots of value and don’t sell it short
Prescient post title today, LT!
“Do you feel what I feel?
Bittering distress
Who decides what you express?
Do you take what I take?
Endurance is the word
Moving back instead of forward
Seems to me absurd
Doesn’t matter what you see
Or into it what you read
You can do it your own way
If it’s done just how I say”
I agree that Broberg has looked better in North America than Sweden and that his skill-set is more conducive to the North American game and the North American ice – with that, he may arrive sooner than we would think given his up and down season in the SHL and how it finished.
At the same time, if the org (Holland) thinks that he’s closer than Samorukov who is (a) older, (b) already had a full season in the AHL and (c) had a much better season in “better league”, well, then, Holland, I’m perplexed.
If this is true, in conjunction with positively valuing a 38-year Duncan Keith at 2 X $5.5M and willing to give up real assets for it….well, Ken, I will join the masses with the vitriol.
This Can’t Happen!
Lol I will happily welcome you aboard OP?
I can’t imagine how relentless you would be with a pitchfork.
Ha!
There’s a rumor going around that James Neal wants a trade to Chicago. Holland is said to be willing to accommodate the aging veteran but Chicago is going to have to surrender a top prospect to make it happen.
Dude. Nail. Hit. Head. Exactly…why can’t Stauffer and company see? It’s gotta be click bait.
Blinded by the light?
Stauffer is conditioning the fans to normalize and accept the full cap hit. He almost choked yesterday when John Shannon said Keith was suited for a third pairing role.
Post of the day! Well done?
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is the extrapolation from the Stauffer sermon yesterday?
Now, its perplexing to me (and wildly disappointing) that it seems Oilers management is attaching positive value to Keith (at his current contract) and may be willing to give up assets for him while taking on most of the cap hit. Now I say “may” because we are all just going on information/speculation from many different sources, not if which seems “official”.
Stauffer was suggesting that the Oilers may give up Jones and a prospect in the deal – I sure hope that isn’t for Keith straight up with no retention and no sweetener but we don’t know. Stauffer went on to say the prospect wouldn’t, of course, be Broberg or Bouchard or Holloway or McLeod and its unlikely (but not out of the question) that it would be Samorukov.
From that we hear the rumor that the trade will be Jones and Samorukov for Keith with no retention.
Frankly, while we should listen to Stauffer who talks to people that are much closer to “in the know” than most but we shouldn’t take his word as gospel. Stauffer does spit-ball quite a bit and his sermon yesterday, in my opinion, extrapolated as Jones and Sammy for Keith, deal done, is a giant stretch.
Stauffer said Sammy wasn’t “off the table” but it was unlikely. I don’t take this to mean that Holland is offering him up in a Keith deal without additional value coming back to the Oilers.
“Without people on this blog who intentionally stir the pot or troll, this place would be filled with Oiler homers who agree with eachother on everything!”
Someone will say in the future after reading 5+? Days of Oilers fans arguing about a hypothetical trade involving Duncan Keith…
I don’t think teams have to subscribe to a ‘window’ and mediocrity or a rebuild.
With health Connor can have a 10 plus year run of excellence.
For it to work a team needs to trade and draft well, sometimes UFAs can help.
It is essential to turn players like Samu into solid returns to stay competitive. Those that remain and are in ELCs make the cap issues work.
Ive read teams have called about Samu. A good GM breaks Samu and Bro in somehow and turns one into a first round pick.
Same with forwards. The top young ones go for firsts, like Kapanen did what twice?
What would bergevin want for Petry now even though he’ll be 34 next season? Giving players away needs to stop, especially now that the team isn’t awful.
The Kraken hire some young guns as assistant coaches.
https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-name-leach-mcfarland-assistant-coaches/c-325582936
If it was the Oilers you would have said Oilers screw up again hiring young unproven coaches. You are predictive and as always an ass!
Alison (@AlisonL) Tweeted:
#CBJ have added @joshweissbock and @thatcamlawrence to its Hockey Ops team as “Hockey Analytic Consultants.”
A solid infusion of talent for the organization.
https://twitter.com/AlisonL/status/1412424126489411607?s=20
Now all they need is a staff member who can convince their players to actually stay in Columbus.
For once the Oilers are in a position of strength going into this deal . Keith has requested to be traded to the Oilers . It sucks for the Black Hawks . But for them to make this request work they will need to bend for the sake of a very deserving player’s desires . The fact of the matter is the Oilers don’t need Keith , don’t get me wrong , sure it would be nice to have Keith on the roster . But the Black Hawks have to be more in line with giving the Oilers a deal they can’t refuse , not the other way around .
“The reason for the Duncan Keith trade is that none of them are ready today. Keith, signing to a two-year deal, will likely give way to Broberg at some point in those two seasons.
Oilers are no longer building, and are about to trade away players who could be in the league for a long time without ever auditioning them at the NHL level.”
I may have misgauged Ken Holland’s verbal when he spoke about ” a significant part of the solution will have to come internally’, and the whole “allowing prospects to percolate” identity that has followed him around.
I read this as “patience with the prospects”, when what he probably meant was “patience with some select prospects” as we aggressively and simultaneously move towards win now mode.
I’ve said it before, and believe now more than ever, that Holland’s top priority is building a defense corps that he perceives to be at the top of the league.
Everyone not named Nurse, Bouchard or Broberg is probably viewed as subordinate and potentially movable.
I fiddled around with CapFriendly last night and I just can’t see value for Keith at any more than $3M AAV. So they’d have to retain a hair over $2.5M to make it work.
No question. If he was a free agent, he would be looking at a two year deal for $2.5-3M/year. There is no reason why Edmonton should accept anything higher.
I am totally flabbergasted by this rumour.
Many of you have noted some of the assets that would have to come back (or go out) if this trade were consummated. Money going out would have to be part of the equation but what if there was a real asset coming back like a DeBrincat or Nylander?
I can’t believe that Holland wouldn’t be more savvy about this situation given that he holds a huge advantage over Bowman.
Look, he surprised us last summer with Barrie and JP. I want to remain optimistic about this as I don’t think Keith would be the worst thing in the world as a third pairing Dman. I’m not advocating this deal by any stretch but I do think this team needs some real veteran experience.
I’m curious to know why more info isn’t coming out of Chicago.
You are not the only one. I’m dismayed that this move is actually being discussed. I agree that we could benefit from a veteran, winning presence but not at this cost.
“I’m curious to know why more info isn’t coming out of Chicago?”….is an excellent point.
It might be a wise strategy to only pay attention to, or at least put more weight on, news coming out of Chicago.
I may be wrong, but I believe the only info that has come out is from Chicago. The Oilers haven’t commented at all. Everything is coming from the talking heads.
Putting all the rumors aside, this is one more example of just how much Holland values and prioritizes Defenseman.
If Cossa is gone before 19, I can see Holland taking RHD Corson Ceulemans.