Most bands back in the day built toward a record contract, playing a local circuit and building their sound. The group Boston’s sound came from the mind of Tom Scholz, who was brilliant at, well, everything. While going to MIT on his way to Polaroid, Scholz wrote a litany of great rock and roll songs. It began with “Foreplay”, written in 1969 and hidden from the world for most of a decade. Scholz and his band produced demos in his homemade studio (Polaroid paid well), and the best of them were released on the album “Boston” in August, 1976. It was the soundtrack of my youth, and I am not alone. “Boston” sold 17 million copies, an all-time classic. If you play a snippet of music for someone my age, from anywhere on the record, we can identify it within a few seconds. Wore. It. Out.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Oilers 2021-22 roster projection, including trade and free agent targets
- DNB: How do Oilers fans feel about their team’s 2020-21 season?
- Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ next wave of prospects help them win a playoff series in 2022?
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- Jonathan Willis: How underappreciated Oilers defenceman Jeff Petry became a Canadiens mainstay
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
FIRST DRAFT, BY SCOUTING DIRECTOR
This has been a thing forever, I first noticed it when Kevin Prendergast spoke glowingly about Ales Hemsky several years after he had chosen the Czech winger with his first pick. Here are all of Edmonton’s scouting directors, with their first years’s worth of draft picks.
- Barry Fraser, 1979: Kevin Lowe (1,254 NHL games); Mark Messier (1,756); Glenn Anderson (1,129).
- Kevin Prendergast, 2001: Ales Hemsky (845); Jussi Markkanen (128); Ales Pisa (53).
- Stu MacGregor, 2008: Jordan Eberle (779); Teemu Hartikainen (52).
- Bob Green, 2015: Connor McDavid (407); Ethan Bear (132); John Marino (108); Caleb Jones (93).
- Tyler Wright, 2020: Dylan Holloway, Carter Savoie, Tyler Tullio, Maxim Berezkin.
I’d say every Edmonton scouting diretor can point to some success (or great success) in year one. I wonder if things change year over year. As a manager gets more comfortable, do things improve?
SECOND DRAFT, BY SCOUTING DIRECTOR
- Barry Fraser, 1980: Paul Coffey (1,409 games); Jari Kurri (1,251); Andy Moog (713); Walt Poddubny (468)
- Kevin Prendergast, 2002: Jarret Stoll (872); Matt Greene (615); Jeff Deslauriers (62)
- Stu MacGregor, 2009: Magnus Paajarvi (457); Anton Lander (215).
- Bob Green, 2016: Jesse Puljujarvi (194); Tyler Benson (7).
- Tyler Wright, 2021:
I will admit (and if you read the blog you’ll know) that Wright’s track record had me worried entering the draft, but the 2020 results are quality in the early days. Wright will once again be shorthanded in terms of draft picks in the top 100 overall (just one this time), but I am more heartened after the 2020 selection.
KEITH GRETZKY
Keith Gretzky joined the Oilers in August 2016 (Kirk Luedeke giving a nice account of his work with the Boston Bruins) and would have had an impact on the Kailer Yamamoto and Evan Bouchard drafts. I’m not certain who ran the show in 2019, but Gretzky was general manager leading up to it, so likely had a hand in it.
Since 2019-20, Gretzky has been the general manager of the Bakersfield Condors and Holland’s assistant GM. Part of that job is procuring talent, and under Holland there are a pile of “AHL-only” deals. Brad Malone is on one, but there have also been a large number of players procured out of college and junior in those years. Some of these guys can play.
We don’t know if there’s a Mark Arcobello, Charles Linglet or Josh Currie in that group, but James Hamblin played in all but one game and to my eye delivered enough quality to bring back next season. Jaks looked good too, he can do things at this level. I’d also suggest Kaldis is also interesting, although Edmonton’s left side is deep in Bakersfield this coming season.
AFTER HOLLAND
Ken Holland is 65, and entering his third season as Edmonton’s general manager. Lou Lamoriello, who will be 79 in the fall, tells us that the modern GM can hang around a long time.
Let’s say for the sake of argument that Holland is in his final 5 years on the job. Is the next GM in the Oilers organization? Keith Gretzky would be a strong candidate, but looking through the team website I see several men who might get an interview.
Kevin Lowe is an Alternate Governor, but has stayed away from the hockey side for a long time. Would he be a candidate to return? Never say never.
Keith Gretzky is the most likely candidate today and his resume has some nice things. If the Oilers have success in the coming years, he might emerge as a strong candidate in Edmonton or elsewhere.
Bill Scott is finally 40, and has been building a management resume since 2010. He was the GM of the Oklahoma City Barons, and signed Mark Arcobello to an AHL deal. For many years, that was his claim to fame with the organization. It’s impossible to know from the outside how much power he commands in a room, but he’s survived in one organization for over a decade, and that organization is the Oilers.
There are other names to consider (Brad Holland is a pro scout with the Oilers), including a couple of former Oilers who dwell in the Red Wings organization (Shawn Horcoff, Daniel Cleary).
I’d say Keith Gretzky has the edge today. We’ll see how this plays out. General managers are chosen due to an organization’s success. That must come first.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we get started at 10, TSN 1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will be with us at 10:20, we’ll chat about Holland’s summer of spending and how to go about putting together the best available roster. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk NBA Final and AL MVP at 11, and of course we’ll be chatting Game Five SCF. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Emily Kaplan (@emilymkaplan) Tweeted:
Nikita Kucherov is comedy gold right now.
Some sample quotes…
“The fans in Montreal acted like they won the Stanley Cup last game. Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me? Their final was last round.”
”Buy a new microphone.”
“That’s a Bud Light, that’s not champagne.” https://t.co/yhD9XQuu1E
https://twitter.com/emilymkaplan/status/1412991211137343488?s=20
What a joke.
His presser was laughable for all the wrong reasons and I think the league should at the very minimum force players to at least wear a shirt and not make a mockery of the situation.
If he wasn’t already half in the bag when he did his little rant then he’s not the guy I thought he was. Not classy at all.
Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) Tweeted:
There’s a reason the Lightning are reviled around the league and it’s bad winner shit like this – and the inspiration is the coach, who’s been doing this since he started #TwoCupsNoClass
https://twitter.com/KeithOlbermann/status/1412992042108661763?s=20
EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) Tweeted:
Nikita Kucherov > Connor McDavid now
https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1412995633640873985?s=20
That’s pretty good, gotta admit.
Are we going to hear if Tatar was injured or not?
Hall to Oilers talk heating up.
Where you see this?
Now go get Palat Holland
Palat – 20 team trade list (so 12 team no-trade list)
Gourde – full NTC
T. Johnson – full NTC switches to 20 team trade list before the draft
Killor – 16 team no trade list.
Cirelli – still in his RFA years so no trade protection…….
yeah, I’d give a lot to get Cirelli
It wasn’t just Chiarelli who was giving out those things like candy??
I’m thinking, if any of these players “took less” to to play in the low tax area, they were “demanding these”.
Of course, these player are compensated well.
The lightening had a secret weapon on thier side
Tampa Bay Lightening Co-Founder Phil Esposito.
Esposito was insistent the logo have a lightning bolt somewhere. He wanted the design of the pants to have bolts on the side.
“If I look and I see a bolt, I know that’s my teammate,” Esposito said. “There might be a split second that makes the difference between the pass getting on the guy’s stick and being intercepted. That was my rationale. Anything to make it quicker for us that you could recognize who we were and what we were.”
He’s an old blowhard all right
You have no clue how good Phil was on and off the ice.
James Mirtle (@mirtle) Tweeted:
Looking at Tampa’s cap situation, it certainly seems like they’ll lose four or five impact players.
They’ll still be a good team, obviously. But they’re going to need a good offseason to be the best again.
https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/1412975141009645571?s=20
Joseph is an internal fillin
im sure some guys will take a discount for a chance at the cup
Did you tweet at Mirtle to tell him the best team is actually the
Dallas StarsFlorida PanthersGolden KnightsMaple LeafsOverwhelming Avalanche?
2 Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl in less than a year.
Tampa Bay installing City of Champions signs now?
Champa Bay?
Bay of Champions
That’s 3 cups in a row for the Big Rig
Well done Pat Maroon
Living his best life. Seems like a great guy.
I’ll bet Blues super fan Laila Anderson is really happy right now. 🙂
Want to thank you for recommending the Watershed GR. We had a great meal there and my wife also wanted me to thank you because she just loved the food.
That’s very kind of you, thank you
I’m glad the 2 of you had a nice meal, it’s a fun place to eat
That stretch of river is prime viewing area for bald eagles
Patrick Maroon won a cup in Edmonton too 🙂
Buyout window opens in 2 days.
I wish we could have an arb filing to open up a 2nd buyout window and give Holland more time to ascertain if he needs more cap space but I don’t see either Kahun or Khair getting qualified.
IMO the just buy out Neal and be done with it.
Khaira probably gets a QO. Kahun ?. Could be bait for the Kraken.
More time to explore options and needs wouldn’t hurt – I think he can all agree that a buyout is less than ideal, although potentially “necessary”.
In my opinion, Kahun is a no-brainer qualify at below the fully buryable amount. He can compete for the middle-six LW spot (with Benson, etc.). I’m not overly concerned with a high arb award and, as we know, would actually like to see the filing.
At the same time, Gregor says no chance he gets qualified.
Gregor also says its unlikely they qualify Khaira- they want him back but at lower than $1.3M
Cool, hadn’t hear that stuff from Gregor.
I can understand the concern with Kahun and arbitration. Also that he isn’t in the Oilers plans for next season.
Fair also for Khaira. It would be great to get him at $1 x 2 or something, but also not a critical loss if he doesn’t go for that (I guess a 3C add is pretty likely then?).
Why would you qualify Kahun? He could double his salary in arbitration, and the Oilers could not walk away from the award because it would be less than the walkaway minimum?
I’m not concerned about a large arb award – last year’s comp must be taken in to account by arbitrators.
OK. Any trades announced yet?
Tampa Bay has been fined for being more than 10% over the cap in the off season
They must be really upset..
That has no effect on their cap next year, right?
no,no….their cap is $97M next year as well…LoL
Haha, that’s what I thought.
Having those penalties actually affect the cap would be a hell of a lot more effective in preventing the infractions from happening. Though this isn’t at all a typical case of 10% over the cap in the offseason.
Well done Tampa. I haven’t seen a team so well put together and so dominant in a long time.
And just think, that was without Killorn and Stamkos has been silent for a long time.
Deserving champs.
Montreal with 24 wins in 56 games and because of shitty reffing, some luck and hot goaltending go all the way to the finals. Just like Bettman drew it up lol
And to think you’re going to have some GMs try to emulate the Montreal approach. If this was a full regular season and they were in their regular division they wouldn’t have even made the playoffs.
Drive for show and putt for dough regular season means diddly squat.
Always an asterisk for me, legal or not
Complete BS. That’s cap circumvention at its finest. And, the other thing not alway talked about but completely in Tampa’s favour was the crowd. How is it fair to have a FULL building in Tampa and yet the Habs get what … 3500 fans. Oh yeah. That’s fair. Add to that the reffing BS too. Why do I watch something so manipulated is beyond me.
The 3500 fan limit is on the Canadian federal government, nothing to do with the league.
So then why doesn’t the league limit the attendance in Tampa to balance home ice. Make a fair final ?? Pretty sure we all know the answer OP.
That would be ludicrious.
so say Edmonton makes the final, not Montreal, and we get 3500 fans in the building and Tampa get get 19,500 fans. You’re tell us that’s not an issue for you?
Considering going. into the playoffs it was more likely than not that the Canadian team would have to re-locate to the US……
Is it 100% “fair”, no, maybe not, but its not due to the NHL, but the Canadian government, and it would ludicrous, and potentially actionable, if the NHL limited the gate in Tampa.
Why would they do that. Just be happy Habs got to play in Canada which for most of the season was likely not even an option for a Canadian team to play home games if they made final 4
congrats to TB*
I’ve enjoyed these playoffs
The Canadiens run is inspiring as any Oiler (or about 10 other teams) fan
Goodrow ain’t bad
…and another thing. I can’t stand listening to Craig Simpson going on and on and on about this is “the finals” “in the finals” “when it’s the finals” “you have to do this in the finals” etc. It’s nauseating. Can’t stand his commentary. Have always hated it. Most overrated broadcaster ever.
He was one tough customer who made is living in front of the net cleaning up garbage. We sure could sure use a player like that hopefully Holloway has a little Ryan Smith or the original Craig Simpson in him starting in a few months time.
Tom Scholz wrote and recorded Boston’s first Album pretty much by himself over a 6 year period, and recorded in his Basement.
He brought in a drummer named Jim Madea for 2 songs, and Brad Delp for the vocals. Brad recorded the harmonies as well on over dubs.
Tom shopped the Album for years to every record label and everyone passed on it. Eventually Epic records expressed interest if the could rerecord the album with a professional producer named John Boylen who ended up doing nothing yet getting half of the producers credits, nice gig for him.
Epics other condition was to see the band perform live, but the problem was, there was no band, just Scholz and Delp. There was a mad scramble to find other players who could learn the songs quickly and they arranged an event at a bar.
After the album was recorded they were offered an opening gig for Black Sabbath, and after the tour Scholz went back to work at Polaroid. Scholz had been rejected so many times he didn’t think the album was going to go anywhere.
He took a 1 years absence from Polaroid when he started headlining arenas, had a top ten song and had sold a million albums.
…and new Deafheaven album coming in August. My most anticipated album in ten years.
If “Great Mass of Color” is indicative of the whole album, it sounds like their blackgaze style is now less “black” and more “gaze”. And, as someone who has dug shoegaze for many moons, I can get behind that 100%.
Agreed. 100%
Here is my Caufield being amazing moment. Caleb Jones will never be a top four D and barely passes for a three left D on an average team. No chance he plays any meaningful role on a cup winner.
I think I missed the moment…..
It was at the draft when the Oilers passed and took another non-elite defenseman.
Not many (any) elite 19 year old d-men in the NHL
You forgot Quinn Hughes last year. Just look where his game is now.
Even Quinn didn’t really qualify on that metric. He turned 20 about 2 weeks into his first full season. He played 5 games at the end of the prior season after the college season in meaningless time as the Canucks were out of the playoff race.
????? Faber Fire?
@ChrisFaber39
·
Jul 6
“One area where we are pretty different is that I’m 6’2″ and I can kill penalties.”
-Luke Hughes on the differences between him and his brother Quinn
That’s amazing trash talk from little bro 🙂
Here’s a thought… without seeing Chicago’s list of upcoming draft picks this year and next, would you trade for Keith, a 2021 2nd, 2021 third and possibly a 2022 second in exchange for a young leftorium defender that is expansion draft exempt and a 2021 4th?
Is there a way to do this and regain our draft capital for this year and next?
Just spitballing… waddya think, Lowetidians?
No
The best player in the deal wins the team trade
A first yes
Dregor saying aquire his rights to talk early.
Great, give up our 5th in order to overpay.
He gets the Larsson contract, that’s pretty much all he’s worth.
I agree
I’m so old I can remember when everybody laughed at Eklund for just making up stuff.
Who knew he was ahead of his time and it would become the industry standard? 😉
News to NHL refs
You are allowed to push players with the puck. No crosscheck ‘supposedly’ but a push yes
Bettman has a mic to ref earpieces
Hyman to Edm talks heating up
Is that because the Keith to Edm talks are cooling off? 😉
What type of “talks”?
I mean, he’s under contract with the Leafs until July 28th.
Do we think Holland is talking details with his agent?
The Athletic reporting Tarasenko officially requested a trade
How much is left of that shoulder?
And wants to keep his 10 team trade list
so doubtful he moves any time soon
Rumored interest from LA.
LA is a ‘guaranteed interest’ for every high profile name rumoured to be available this off season.
This one has been all over LA social media for quite a while.
But obviously no one knows what Blake is thinking.
LA is a franchise whose fan base has little appetite for re-builds. When Doughty and others said they expected improvement that opened the rumour floodgate.
The most detailed proposal I’ve seen is LW/RW Adrian Kempe ($2M cap hit) plus the return of the STL 2nd round pick currently held by LAK for Tarasenko ($7.5M cap hit).
LA gets a 1st line winger for a $5.5M cap hit.
By first line winger you mean a guy who is on his last few turns as an Nhler.
His 4 goals is a good sign that after 3 shoulder surgeries to the same shoulder his shot isn’t quite the same
The athletic surveyed some GMs and they knew he was available and had no interest
well that’s that
After his most recent surgery which has apparently fixed the problem, Tarasenko scored 2 goals in 4 playoff games.
With a full offseason of training, he’s likely worth the risk.
In his prime, he was much more than his shot. He was a dynamic skater and playmaker.
kinda like john prime…
I posted a few days ago that Saravelli advised (on the DFO podcast) that he was having issues with the shoulder constantly popping out but the surgery that he had has fixed it, 100%.
Yep…saw that too.
The Mike Grier issue.
I don’t get how the doctors is a team issue?
I mean normally they contract with the top sports medicine and orthopedic doctors in the city
it’s not like they hire Dr Nick
Hello Everebody!!
Too many cocktails?
Obviously you missed his Simpsons Dr. Nick Riviera reference. Also per you earlier post, Tarasenko’s 3rd and most recent surgery was last August. So after recovering and rehabbing it all the way to March, he put up 4 goals in 24 games before the playoffs. And his 2 goals in 4 games were scored in the 4th and final game against Colorado after getting 0 points and going -7 in the first 3 losses. So signs that he is back are not there yet. He may bounce back in the right situation, since besides shoulder issues with the team, he was unhappy for other reasons as well, but even at $5.5 million, he is a risk.
Surely a team with a first rate analytics team like the Kings would be weary of Tarasenko…
I’m so impressed with one of LT’s original targets for this summer.
Blake Coleman.
I don’t care how not big he is. He plays big.
Love to have him at double his current salary
3 x $3.6m
Probably can’t get him for that, but who knows what the market will look like.
I’m a fan of Coleman, too. Wonderful player across 200 feet.
Would love Coleman on the team but fear he would be improperly slotted as McDavid’s left wing.
5’11 207
He’s a load
My first get for us bcs he’s as good as Hyman at least and should be less cap if he would sign
The trade a small return for Killorn
If Larsson signs before the draft, the bottom line of sending Jones to Hawks is losing Lagesson to Kraken.
Or Benson.
This org is going to protect Kassian (and Archie) over Benson.
2019 Kassian, sure, maybe even with his current contract. 2020 and 2021 Kassian, nope, not with that contract – don’t think Seattle would take it but, if they did, while the team would continue to miss what Kass did provide, he hasn’t provided it for a long time and $3.2M X 3 is valuable.
The org likely thinks he could be traded clean. I don’t think he can but I could be wrong.
Archibald has been outscored more than 3 to 2 at 5v5 since he’s played for the Oilers.
Do Archibald and Shore get exemptions from the 5v5 gf% Holland looks at?
I would protect Benson over both.
Can’t imagine Shore gets protected.
I would posit that much of the 2019/20 goal share issue was related to Riley Sheahan.
Archie was positive this past season with Khaira…..
His PK and “give a fuck”/engery creation are material as well.
Question for the group:
Have we effectively narrowed down the statistical impact of playing on a bad team? Is there a reliable way to parse stats besides rels that shows a good player had poor/average/exceptional results on a bad team?
I remember Duby was oft maligned on the Oilers tire fire teams. He wasn’t that bad but he was never a world beater either.
Then there’s guys like Towes in COL or Oleksiak (whom I’m suspicious of regardless of rels, due to playing with Heiskanen. Similar to Russell playing with Sekera in the year he signed a PTO here) in DAL. I feel like it’s most likely they’re being zoomed by the team they play for and their typical partners. But they’re crowd pleasers at the moment. Because fancy stats.
Well the best looks I believe in are what Woodguy used to in Wowys and his own site looking at who the coaches choose to play against the best
And LTs like of dangerous fenwick. All shots with a component of if high danger.
There isn’t really anything definitive as I posted earlier.
That anyone can truly say is shedding light on individuals in such a team dynamic sport
Perry and Anderson will score and shock the world by bringing this series back to Montreal.
Would take any one of these at #19
Sillinger
Cossa
Cornato
Svechkov
Othmann
Lysell
Bolduc
Don’t know if it gets said often but I appreciate your contributions about prospects.
If you have time it would be cool to get a nutshell explanation of why you prefer certain prospects.
Good looking list, mostly agree. Is that in order?
I’d add Isak Rosen there as well.
Ya it’s in order, I do like Rosen to. Such a tough year to pick after the top 10.
In light of Lowetide a couple weeks ago calling for people to show the proof where they predicted Caufield being amazing, I’ll play my cards on the table.
I fully expect Keith to be able to play strong 2LD this upcoming season with the Oilers. In terms of his ability, I have zero concerns. The deal to acquire him still has to be favourable and I would like salary retention, but I’m hoping for it to come to pass.
If Keith does become an Oiler and stinks horribly, you can dig up this prediction and rub my face in it, but right now I think people are drawing poor conclusions from the “data”.
I’ll stick my neck out and make the same prediction with one caveat:
He gets the opportunity to play with a defensively sound partner like Larsson, and doesn’t have to babysit a rookie or rover.
Man, that penalty call against Denmark in extra time was absolutely brutal.
Talk about crap officiating that will sour a fan on a sport! Taints the entire tournament imo.
Yeah, but Diego Maradona and the Hand of God. Gerard’s ‘goal’ against Germany. Simeone diving, then provoking Beckham into getting sent off. I’m fine with this, and the better team won.So these things cosmically balance out. Besides, the Video Assistant Referee was one G. Bettman. He knows a thing or two about these things, if there’s ever a concern.
England’s had some bad luck in the past so Denmark deserves to get screwed?
That pretty much sums up the poor officiating debate. I don’t like it unless of course it benefits my team!
They have instant replay now in soccer unlike ‘The Hand of God’ days. There is no excuse for this. A very poor look for UEFA with England getting this call at home to decide a championship berth.
Lol, what evs, bruv. We’re in the final! BTW, I think the if England hadn’t got that penalty, they would have got the stronger second claim a little later. They were running Denmark’s show, who, like Italy, were playing for stalemate.
So yes, I believe they deserved to get screwed. You sit back and try to play to get the coin flip of penalties when you know you’re not good enough to compete, then these things happen.
Denmark lost their first two games and were still in the semi. Don’t come at me with ‘taints the entire tournament’. It’s not as if the NHL is any better.
Bias vs Logic.
Bias wins cos they deserved it dammit!
It was a very unfair call but with England winning it brings in 10’s of millions of dollars. If they were playing Italy, Spain or Portugal that dive would of been overturned.
None of the English commentators could understand the call either. Luckily I have been trained to accept such incompetence by the very best. I’m just not used to having it go in my favour.
I should make clear my position, because there is some confusion: if you think parting with Jones for Keith is a good move (with cap relief), you are most definitely in league with Stauffer and Spec. And that’s fine, but that’s where you are on the Keith spectrum 🙂
Incidentally, Spector has made a career out of being wrong about young players whilst fawning over false veteran idols while Stauffer habitually cozies up to whichever dictator is in power.
Keith is done as a top 4 D. Finished.
If Jones gets better luck next year he is a top 4 D. Willis showed Petry had a year just like Jones prior to getting traded. I showed that Duncan Keith had a year like Jones a few years ago! Except Keith is getting worse and older whereas Jones will get better/less unlucky.
Think about the market for a young top 4 D and then think of the market for guys who were good once. Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, Chara, etc. The husk of a now fungible but once formidable vet is worth one thing and one thing only: a league minimum one year contract.
If you really want to help Chicago, go donate to a food bank or a high impact charity, forget about Duncan Keith.
Petry was an established NHLer who even had time as part of Edmonton’s “top pair” with Smid on his resume when he got traded. Where Petry was when he became a Canadien and where Jones is now are very far apart. At least in what has actually been demonstrated and not in theory.
This is my opinion from a Caleb Jones article at The Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/2660403/2021/06/19/lowetide-caleb-jones-oilers-reach-crossroads-that-could-land-jones-in-seattle/
Thanks for quoting for those of us plebs without a subscription.
I agree with your take. It’s the pertinent, logical stance.
But when I zoom out I ask, with Nurse ensconced as 1LD, and both of Broberg and Samorukov expected to slug it out for top four duties in the years to come, where does Jones fit in?
Is he our stopgap? Or trade bait to benefit from the Leftorium in acquiring help up the depth chart?
I get the cap efficiency argument, as it’s a primary concern. That’s why any deal involving Jones+ for Keith or other needs to be cap neutral at the very least. But if we can draw from an area of strength to bolster the team without handcuffing the team from a cap or depth position, I’m all ears.
I would like to see more of Jones before moving him, but there’s no doubt that highly-touted competition is close and could pass soon. You can’t keep them all, but for me Jones>Lagesson and the other kids aren’t there yet. I’d run Jones third pair, an sign Kulikov. That idea sends this comments section into a spin, but that’s what I would do, make a deal at the deadline if necessary. By then, you’d know about Klefbom, too.
I’m leaning that way as well the more I have time to think about Keith and Chicago. Kulikov or similar as a place holder.
For me that has more to do with Samorukov and/or Broberg being ready to claim a full time spot on that left side at some point during the season. I still think Jones gets moved this coming season and I have been a big supporter of his through his time with the Oilers.
If not, as you say, go shopping at the TD. I think you have said the same thing about the goalies, though, and that is a step too far for me. To me that is a spot that needs a solution this off season.
Petry had already established himself as a very good NHL defenseman. The Oilers didn’t think he wasn’t, they just weren’t prepared in 2014 to fork over $5 million for him and eventually $ 4 to $5 million for Schultz so they chose Shultz and moved on from Petry. By the way, Petry as a UFA trade deadline swap was eventually turned into Caleb Jones and Cam Talbot down the road, so its not like they walked away from him for nothing. Jones, in the eyes of the organization, has not yet proven he will ever become top 4. When handed the opportunity on a silver platter at the age of 23, he muffed it. He couldn’t stay regular on a team that had Russell, Lagesson, and Koekkoek as the other left D behind Nurse. And Tippett has been fair with young D, with Bear, Jones, Lagesson and Bouchard all getting opportunities.
And stop with the if you’re not with us, you’re against us stuff. If a person believes that a bet on Keith might pay off, if the wager is no more than Jones and Neal with the cap balancing out, that is not the same as what Stauffer and Spector are saying. Based on what I have seen, so far Jones will at best be a solid 5/6 defender in his career. I doubt he is ever a fixture, other than due to injuries, on anyones top 4. If its Jones and someone like Samorukov with no cap retention, I would think that is way too big a bet.
What I would prefer is for the Oilers to trade for a LD.
Specifically, I would like for Holland to shop in the RFA aisle and to see what the expansion draft will make available in trade
I have made several suggestions with Graves being probably the best available.
etc.
The Neal contract has 4 x $1.916 buyout cost attached.
For $3.6m, you could get a better defenseman than Keith or you could try Forbort as a stop gap and use the money elsewhere. I don’t know what Oleksiak would cost. I haven’t look into whether or not he’s actually any good either, but there is the UFA market.
I don’t think Keith moves the needle anymore.
I could still contemplate a Neal for Keith deal, but I wouldn’t trade Jones for Keith with salary retained.
The problem with Jones is that he can’t be protected (if you acquire another d before the expansion draft or sign Larsson), now that doesn’t make him a throw in for a trade, but otherwise you could contemplate him on the roster as an option to try again in the top four until the deadline. They still could protect Jones, but it doesn’t seem likely for some reason.
This. Exactly.
There is absolutely no point in tying yourself in knots trying to appease Chicago when there are better, lower risk options readily available.
It is reasonable to assume that Holland has been shopping in more than one aisle. Patiently!
I appreciate your well reasoned stance.
Issue I have with fetching an RFA defenseman is that you’re investing in a player who will likely block one or both of Broberg and Samorukov. And at a much higher cap hit, to boot.
I suppose that player could then be flipped for players and or picks later but that kind of churn must have some kind of negative impact on the organizational reputation, no?
As discussed a couple of days ago…this is exactly what Tampa does.
Worrying about whether or not a prospect is blocked is the hamster wheel of losing.
Tampa, within reason, has no fear of sending out prospects and high picks to fill out their roster with players who help them win now. Check out their acquisition of Ryan McDonagh as a prime example.
If acquiring Ryan Graves, for example, stops Samorukov from becoming Ryan Graves a few years down the road, you’re still left with plenty of options.
Samorukov likely to surpass Ryan Graves by the end of 2022.
As unlikely as that is, you flip Graves.
Definitely not unlikely.
Its nice for Graves to become a legit NHL d-man though, I mean, after all those years of meandering. I would suggest he is receiving a “team bump” in his play.
Broberg and Samorukov need to be blocked. They’re not ready for top four duty, yet.
When they pass player X, you trade him and move on.
Colorado does this sort of thing all day long.
Pick up Toews, turn Zadorov into Saad.
You’ve got to play from Rust to Ritches.
The cost of a top four d, in trade, will drop between now and the expansion draft then skyrocket up again.
I absolutely agree with this in theory. But what Dmen are actually out there?
I haven’t looked. It seems like you have (maybe not exhaustively), and the answers are Graves, Forsling, Lauzon, Zboril.
Graves, everyone agrees is a good target.
Forsling definitely played top 4 this season and had success. But he’s 25, he signed a league minimum contract before the year and has a track record of 1 season (he spent all of last year in the minors in the Carolina organization).
Lauzon and Zboril are both 24 and weren’t top 4 D this past season unless you squint really hard. Lauzon played 18:42/game, Zboril 17:03/game.
I’m not trying to be difficult, I’m just trying to get a handle on what options are available to the Oilers this offseason.
If the Oilers entered next season with one of these guys penciled in at 2LD, how would the mood here be? Graves, definitely positive. Forsling, I’m guessing some trepidation, but hope that he can repeat what he did last season. Lauzon/Zboril, I guess we’d be saying there’s a battle between Jones and the new guy for 2LD/3LD (assuming Jones is still around).
If presented with Keith vs. one of these options, I guess most folks would be happy based on how they rate Keith. Setting Keith aside though, I don’t think we’d be happy with Holland’s summer if any of the guys not named Graves was the 2LD add.
One thing Holland’s interest in Keith tells us is that he believes 2LD was a problem and he’s willing to spend to upgrade there. I don’t think anyone will argue the list of youngish ‘pretty sure 2LDs’ ends at Graves.
So what other options are available? UFAs by TOI are Goligoski, Martinez, Edler, Forbort, Oleksiak, Reilly, Kulikov, McCabe, Murray (we’re down to 18:36 TOI in NJ for Murray, so that’s probably the bottom of the barrel in terms of plausible 2LD).
Whether you place any stock in it or not, Leavins has straight out said Martinez “wouldn’t sign in Canada”, and suggested Oleksiak and McCabe are “not available” to Holland (https://twitter.com/KurtLeavins/status/1411575320201728004).
If you believe Leavins, the UFA/youngish trade options are down to Graves, Goligoski, Edler, Forbort, Reilly, Kulikov, Murray.
There’s also the ‘one year from UFA’ group that could be a legitimate options. Probably not many good value deals to be had in this category, but Hampus Lindholm sticks out (there are surely others in this group, I haven’t looked enough to be sure who/how many there are).
Anyway, sorry for the long post. I’m just trying to get a handle on the extent of the options available to Holland this summer. And this truly isn’t meant to be an argument for Keith (what you think there depends almost entirely on what quality of hockey player you believe he’ll be over the next 2 years).
Still, it is a bit sobering (for me anyway) to see how limited the offseason options at 2LD may be for Holland.
If Jones was a bonafide top four D they would protect him. Given the teams left D moving forward the decision seems to be that if Larsson is signed they will protect Nurse, Bear and Larsson. If Larsson is not signed before the expansion draft they will protect Jones.
Teddy Purcell on chiclets:
“When Tampa wins it’ll be the second time I got traded from a team that won two cups…”
Three times a charm, Ted.
Speaking of GMs and upper management:
1) I hope Holland is the GM of the Oilers well in to his 70s (this presumes team success).
2) I’m still anticipating Bob N. taking over from Rene Fasel by year’s end and wonder what the means for upper management.
Lowe!!!
Tide!!!
For GM!!!
–
Well thought out post! Strong and silent.
Too negative for my liking.
dashing!
Tom Scholz created a production masterpiece with that first Boston album. You can play it on any media from LPs to streaming and it sounds stellar.
Late 70s was really the pinnacle of audio analog production. So many timeless sounding recordings as a result.
You had those amazing Neve consoles and guitar players were all using tube amps. In the 80s, it’s still analog source but midi keyboards and drums are coming onstream and the arrangements start to get bloated with massive overdubbing and track layering. I blame Mutt Lange!
And now we’re married to digital. Great for storage and portability. High fidelity. Not so much.
If Ken Holland was a record producer, he’d be Bob Rock. I’d prefer Jimmy Miller.
I had an acquaintance that worked at Audio Ark late 70’s early 80’s. Bought himself a very expensive very high fidelity system, and modified it, obsessed!
Each guest got to pick an album side and sit in the sweet spot for it. I used to love listening to Avalon on that set up, unreal production. The Clash wasn’t bad either, if not as smooth.
Not a ton of straight up rock though in that crowd.
Nice!
https://twitter.com/kinger999/status/1412625467576750087?s=21
Interesting poll on Keith
brings up something I brought up a few days ago
IF Keith was a UFA how much would you offer
Not much
Looks like only way we should get him is if they rip up his contract first
My biggest concern is that HOLLAND is gonna be concerned about doing right by Keith. We don’t owe the guy anything.
That being said, I have this vivid memory of a playoff game between CHI and STL, and Backes basically getting knocked out. I can’t remember if it was Keith that hit him or not, but during the scrum afterwards all you can hear is Keith yelling at him: “Wakey-wakey!” over and over. I might be putting too much value in that attitude, but we could definitely use some of that greasiness.
That was an awesome playoff series, intense war. It was Seabrook who hit him. Here it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebln9I-VpQk
I just found the clip of Keith saying “wakey wakey, Backes. Wakey wakey” though:
https://youtu.be/Ebln9I-VpQk
Did anyone see this thread on Keith, put out yesterday about his zone entry defense? https://twitter.com/JhanHky/status/1412531933590921216
Curious for other’s thoughts on this and maybe some discussion, but I think the clips selected are a little unfair to Keith, and he isn’t to blame for all.
Clip 1) Poster says he gets stuck in no man’s land because he is aggressive on the entry defense. As a D, you want to make that first point of contact at or near the blue line aka the anti Kris Russell approach. Would you want him to break up the pass there or get a takeaway? Yes.
But I think Keith did what he should, the attacking forward played it well, and the scoring chance could have been negated w/ better support from his C on the trailing forward, and his D partner covering the man in front. His teammates looked lost to me.
2) Again, poster says he is stuck in no man’s land and can’t get back because he pinches in the neutral zone, playing a breakout pass aggressively. Again, I disagree. Keith is aggressive here and tries to make a play on the puck. It isn’t risky though, because Keith’s coverage is well ahead of him, leaving only his D partner’s covered forward behind him. This is fine. His D partner can and should be able to handle a 1 on 1 in this situation, and Keith is in a fine position to cover any trailers. The aggression here is worth it, in my opinion.
3) Poster says Keith is slow on the retrieval after the puck rolls down the ice. Sure, he does get outpaced by Staal, but the poster ignores the horrible pass from Kane which forces Keith into a chasing position where Staal has all of the momentum skating out of the zone.
Staal does somewhat get the better on him in the corner, but he doesn’t get a quality scoring chance off, mostly because Keith is all over him and the goalie has a great angle.
4) Yeah, this infamous play wasn’t great. He trips by himself, hits a referee, and gets concussed. Not a pretty play but a bit of bad luck in there as well.
5) I don’t think critiquing a player after they are concussed is fair.
That’s just my analysis though. Curious to hear anyone else’ opinions on these plays. I am still against acquiring Keith unless it is Neal out or he is signed after a buyout, but I looked at this thread and felt the analysis was off.
For some reason, the link didn’t open for me. I will say this – it’s low hanging fruit to find a few clips to reinforce whatever narrative you are promoting. The best dmen in the league make mistakes almost every game. Hockey is hard.
Yeesh, those are some really harsh highlights.
3rd clip beat to a puck race badly by a 32-year-old Jordan Staal. I don’t know if he got a penalty on that play, but if you grab a guy like that wearing Oil silks, you’re going to the penalty box ten times out of ten.
2nd clip beat wide by Martin Necas.
1st clip he had a gap that makes Russell’s look good.
Someone mentioned in the thread that all of the clips were from the first period.
I used to love Keith’s play but he really looks done.
I really wish we had confidence in the Oilers professional scouting staff.
If you took any player’s worst highlights, they would all look done. Like the other responses, I didn’t see many plays that were egregious. I could show you a lot of egregious Kulikov, Jones, and Lagesson from last season, however. Kulikov had incredible fancies playing with the Devils; do you think he performed well as the 2LD on the Oilers? If Keith was done, his coach would not have played him heavy minutes against the other teams’ top competition. In comparison, James Neal’s role, minutes, and games have decreased over the years because he’s done and the coach knows it. To me, Keith appears to be an upgrade on what we had last season. He’s probably only worth $2.5-3.0M per season (maximum—some would argue less) but he’s better than what we had. And his deal is two years, which is good.
An aside, Stauffer sounds like he’s negotiating for the Blackhawks right now. He’s touting Keith’s contract as being a great benefit to the acquiring team because yearly cash salary is far less than cap hit. Keith wants four teams: Edmonton, Seattle, Vancouver, Calgary. The Flames might be the only team who would care about the financial benefit. The Oilers should be clear that the actual cash salary benefit is a non-factor in the negotiation. Holland has Bowman by the balls and could get a useful player at a fair price if he stands firm.
Keith will be the 2LD for the Oilers the next 1.5 years. Book it!
I agree with this for two reasons:
1. There isn’t that much out there that matches Holland’s preferences.
2. Chicago has nowhere else to go.
You very well could be right but, in my opinion:
– despite #1, there is no surety that Keith will be better than internal options (and definitely more expensive) and, until July 28, we don’t know for sure – no reason to rush for the Oilers
– #2 is Chicago’s problem and needs to be taken full advantage of by Holland to (a) get the cap equalized AND (b) extract additional value from Chicago – not the other way.
Unfortunately, I think that Holland values the player more than maybe he should and will pay value provided the cap gets worked out (and may pay more in order to get the cap worked out).
Bowman, here’s the deal. The real deal. Here’s James Neal. That’s it.
Go buyout Neal and move on with your summer.
I agree that four bad highlights from a single game aren’t a fair amount of video to judge a player.
However, I’ve looked at data from various sources (Natural stat trick, what’s public from Sports logiq, Evolving Wild’s WAR) and not much suggests he is helping a bad d on a bad team.
This is an issue with do it home fault analysis. I enjoy it, but take it with a grain of salt, no offense Bruce et al at CoH.
If you don’t know how systems work at the NHL level, or what system the team in question is playing, how do you know who blew it in the team’s eyes?
We can all see a mistake or seemingly poor decision, but it can start with the forecheck and who didn’t get the job done pushing the breakout in the desired way or a lost battle, etc
Or a poor line change, slow coming off which Leon is very guilty of, way too many minutes for a lumbering skater as he is, he gets tired in the shift even if his recovery is legendary on the bench.
Goligoski seems like an option for graybeard LD if Keith doesn’t work out.
One of the early reports out of Chicago was that they were not interested in taking back a bad contract.
Doesn’t that probably mean that that was the early offer from Holland?
Likely, but we don’t know if it was a 1 for 1 scenario or whatever. I don’t think Keith is gonna be in Chicago when camp starts by the sound of things, so we don’t need to get pillaged to make this deal. Let someone else overpay if they want. There’s no shame in sidestepping this opportunity if it doesn’t work for us too.
IIRC (can’t recall if it was in DNBs or Leavins’ article, or another) the Hawks did say no contract back. But Holland/Oilers also said a deal needed to be cap neutral.
So the 2 sides were seemingly starting at the opposite extremes.
I’d be shocked if the end result isn’t somewhere in the middle.
On the Hawks willingness to retain or take a contract back, I think there have been varying differing “reports” none of them really based on anything solid but speculation (Stauffer saying they won’t take any back and then Friedman saying maybe they will, etc., etc., etc.). I don’t think there was anything being reported that came from the Hawks on that.
On the Oilers’ side, 100% Nugent-Bowman reported the sources told him that the Oilers need the deal to be essentially cap neutral. I don’t know if that was directly from Holland (although, of course, DNB has a line to him) or another within the org..
OK, I thought the stuff out of Chicago was more source than speculation.
Regardless, I don’t expect the deal, if it happens, will be either cap neutral for the Oilers or with no salary retained/taken back by the Hawks.
I’d do Jones and Neal and like a 4th rounder for Keith with no salary retained either way. Probably as high as I go though. Bowman is a bit painted into a corner here, as he’ll definitely want to do right by Keith. They get Jones and a pick and they can buy out Neal.
That would be a home run for Holland and the team. Not sure if Bowman would do it, but just maybe.
I’m not convinced that’s a home run, TBH. Just looking at Neal-for-Keith straight up (which is probably unrealistic), I don’t think its the best use of the cap. If Holland bought Neal out it would save $3.8M, pretty sure a guy like Goligoski could be signed for something like $2M x 1 year – that’s a $1.5M advantage over trading Neal for Keith before you even consider the value of Jones & a pick.
Goligoski played at a higher level than Keith this past year, too.
The Neal buyout also adds 1.9m in years 3&4.
Neal buyout: 7.6m total cost
Keith full contract: 11m. (5.5*2)
Difference= 3.4mill
You really would be paying Keith 1.7m*2
I think that has value.
Unless you don’t care about years 3 and 4
This is my thinking too, but let’s not do anything crazy to do it. If Neals not traded, we’re probably gonna buy him out. I’m willing to give up a bit to avoid doing it though. Essentially Keith does fill a roster need, and is at least good enough to dress every game. Neal situation is gonna be bad either way if we don’t move him. Pay a bit of a premium to kick the buyout down the road.
All Keith has to say is move me or I will be forced to retire. Seattle isn’t going to help Bowman either!
Caleb Jones is a valuable card for whoever is chasing Seth, Holland should be all over this in a package for a Goalie a 3C or a 2LD
This narrative is boggling to me.
I don’t think that Caleb Jones has any value in a trade as “Seth’s brother”.
I agree. What if Caleb is benched or sent to the minors? You might just alienate Seth. Or you might play Caleb when he should be benched just to appease Seth. It has just as much potential to be a trap.
Neal goes in return or forget about it. Add Jones if you must. Keith is a better player than Neal, but has a worse contract, so even adding Jones is a stretch. Vancouver and Calgary are not in on this for a reason. SEA is looking to strip some real assets from CHI to do business. There is no reason for us to do CHI any kind of favors. Of course Bowman does not want to do this, but they have only a few crappy options, and talking a good game doesn’t change anything.
KH should let the clock tick on this and the heat will increase under Bowman’s ass to a point where they will be more open to a move that is reasonable from the Oilers.
KH should look at what the retirement or buyout costs for CBH will be and offer only a marginally better option for CBH in a transaction. This is win win win for the 3 parties.
If he is bought out he could be interested in a reasonable offer from the Oil. This is win win for oil and Keith and lose for CBH.
Jones could easily be a second pairing D next season at an affordable cap hit. You don’t throw away players like that after incurring the development fee.
He wasn’t ready last year as proven by his play. Why do you say he could easily be a top four this season? Regardless the two pushing behind him will eat his lunch in short order. One can actually play defence and the other is a two way D. They both are excellent skaters and bigger than Jones with more upside.
I’ll say that you are not wrong, but if you want a 2nd pairing defenseman who rises in big games and playoffs, then you go with an established defensemanz that is D Keith paired with Larsson. It’s a package deal for second paring.
that being said I would not send Jones to Chicago, I would send him to philly for N Patrick.
on a side note. Holland should back up the brinks truck for Hamilton. Then he can use Bear as a center piece to trade for Rienhart.
sign Coleman and boom!
Coleman McDavid Draisaitl
JP Rienhart RNH
Benson Patrick Yamo
Archibald McLeod Khara
Nurse Hamilton
Larsson Keith
Kulikov Bouchard
i don’t know if that fits under the cap, or what extra adds in trades you need, but that lineup gets you deep in the playoffs
I thought it would of been Keith taking over for Peter but the Venom spewed towards anything related to the OBC was sad in my opinion. Katz opened up his wallet enough and Connor and Leon didn’t hurt in enticing Holland away from easy street in Hockey-Town. Would we be further ahead with Keith than the 0-4 or 1-7 playoff record that the listless Oilers are sporting will never know. My money’s on Keith Gretzky seamlessly taking over for Holland in 3 years.
Jonathan Willis with some awesome stuff on twitter regarding young D. Spoiler: we’ve seen this movie before.
https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Is there any way we could get Huddy back to work with the D or get Manson up here?
Marilyn or Shirley?
Charlie.
To write for Cult of Hockey?
If we get Manson up here and he does a bang up job, that would make Tipp look good. Do we want to make Tipp look good?
I want to win!
The Bouchard benching for most of the year especially when he came into camp in game shape unlike Bear was and still is nothing short of Bizarre. If it costs Tippett’s who I like job well so be it.
The appropriateness of Bouchard’s usage and deployment is certainly up for debate, however, at the same time, given 3 established right shot NHL D available, all with top 4 NHL pedigree, the usage and deployment was far from “bizarre”.
It may not have been “right” or “proper” or “optimal” in the opinion of any particular person but “bizarre” is not an adequate word to describe it, in my opinion.
We want Manson in Bakersfield this year working with Broberg and Berglund and the other 2nd year guys.
Tippett is going to be the coach this year. If you don’t like the coach, fire him. You don’t undermine the coach by firing his assistants.
I like that Hall and Hamilton are on the Oilers radar and that talks with Larsson (and apparently Keith) are cooling. The Keith convo has been fascinating because it appears the majority here and the MSM favour acquiring Keith, while on Twitter it is the polar opposite. I stand with the Twitter crowd on this one. Not sure I remember such a chasm between the two groups. LT commentators + Stauffer + Spector is the unholy trinity I thought I would never see.
For all the grief that they are given, and as LT’s list of GM candidates attests to, no question there are intelligent voices in the org. No insider knowledge, but I suspect Tippett’s mishandling of the D has undoubtedly lost him some influence with the GM, as far as procurement is concerned.
That’s a good thing. Tipp has done well with forwards but with the D he has seemingly little clue. Whatever his status is, the org needs to sort out how to develop young D and how to respond to mistakes that young D make.
Marino/Jones/Bear/Broberg/Samorukov/Bouchard is a fantastic cluster of drafted D, but you have to play them. I’ve been following the team since ’97 and there were years you would beg just to have one of those guys in the pipeline. Lost in the hoopla of McDavid and Draisaitl is a historic cluster of young D with diverse skillsets. Is Tippett’s comfort level and opinion so important that the hours of successful work by scouts and development coaches should be thrown away?
I’m disappointed that some here think there is some magical limit on how many young D can be employed, particularly when two of those are former top 10 picks. That kind of rigid, inside the box thinking is perilous and potentially ruinous.
I would say the majority here do not want Keith. I’m in favour of the acquisition at the right price. Are you saying we should play both Broberg and Sami this year instead of acquiring another 2LD?
Agree the majority on here don’t want Keith. Might not be as polarized as Twitter though.
Nothing anywhere ever is as polarizing as Twitter. Proud to say I’ve never indulged.
Yeah, seems that way. I haven’t taken the plunge either, aside from checking out things that other point to.
Yes
Jones (2 LHD) and Samorukov (3 LHD) with Russell as 7D. Broberg in the AHL for one year.
I am not at all interested in the husk of Duncan Keith. I think those who are in the “at the right price” camp are closer to Stauff/Spec. Nothing wrong with that, maybe you all are right and I’m completely wrong.
Isn’t Playfair supposedly the one who runs the D?
Sure, but everything runs through the head coach. I would be surprised if lineup decisions are made at the sole discretion of Playfair, I certainly haven’t heard anything like that.
Yes, I’m sure Tippett is involved (probably heavily) in deciding what D play night to night.
Just thinking that the in-game stuff (like the benching that took Bear out of game 4) is likely on Playfair. As you say though, Tippett is still the HC, so ultimately responsible.
The Hall angle is intriguing to me, and I am starting to wonder. I remain a tad surprised he hasn’t re-upped in Boston yet. Someone had mentioned that the NHL doesn’t like big announcements during the Finals, but that didn’t stop Nuge and Erikson-Ek from signing.
I think we all know 1st line LW is a priority. I think we all know Holland values Hall. And I think we can gather that Hall probably wouldn’t be opposed to coming back.
I think this one has legs, and every day that passes without a Hall signing in Boston, the more likely it gets.
Recent Poster poll.
Hit plus on one of the two posts below to answer
Do you like Duncan Keith straight up (no assets going the other way) with $2,288,462 retained?
So an AVV as an Oiler of $3,250,000
______________________________________________________________
Results were 22+ 42-
So even at a fairly attractive price/cost, the posters here voted almost 2 to 1 against acquiring Duncan Keith
Hall may sign in Boston. He’s probably interested to see if a team will do a stupid contract for him, despite what he says, waiting.
At the same time while Hall is certainly very skilled, he is a long ways from a typical Boston archetype. I would not be surprised at all that after whoever is deciding looks over some tape and gets some input and wonders if Hall’s way of playing is palatable to them.
Agreed. I mentioned during the playoffs that exact thing. Hall is almost the anti-Boston archetype.
And, no, that is not the same as saying he isn’t talented or skilled. Have to get that in to head off 47 minuses. 😉
It’s just that when I think of Boston I think of hard on the puck, board battle wins, crash the net kind of hockey.
That is not Hall’s game imo.
That’s what I’m thinking. The constant turnovers probably kills Cassidy.
I watched quite a few games involving Boston during the playoffs with an eye on Hall. I never saw him win one puck battle through the NYI series.
I caught a game in that one, there was there was Hall talk around at the time. I saw the same thing. Poor puck management, lost battles, etc.
After so many years of watching this team, loads of skill and no ability to win when it’s hard (other than the crustier ’06 version that got blown up), I’m pretty sure only Connor and maybe Kucherov are good enough to warrant a style that pretty much doesn’t work in the playoffs for anybody else, at least for long.
It’s just too easy for disciplined teams to take the low road and shut good players down, like McKinnon this year. Connor can overcome it if he has enough help I think. He didn’t this year. I don’t see the Bruins around either.
That’s what makes Crosby so dangerous.
He’s the most skilled grinder in the league and it’s not even close.
Marchand in Boston is pretty high on that list for me as well.
I’d say the majority here, mindful of Oiler ways, have been twisting themselves in knots to find a scenario where a Keith acquisition doesn’t utterly screw the team and/or set back or sewer Prime McDrai.
The majority on this site have not been for the Keith acquisition but have been adamant that it is cap neutral and limited to a possible trade of Jones who has proven not capable of second pairing D last year and will in all probability be lost in the expansion draft assuming the Black Hawks take a Neal contract back. The coaches first responsibility is to win games and make the playoffs NOT player development! You are also using hindsight in the criticism of management which at very best not fair!
This is certainly not true.
No one here is drinking the Stauffer KoolAid.
I was initially intrigued by the possibility (without having analyzed anything) of a cap dump for cap dump deal (Neal for Keith trade).
That’s a far cry from being on team Stauffer/Spector on this one.
Colorado won the president’s trophy with two 22-year-old d on their top pair, both of which evolving hockey had as top picks for Team Canada.
In fact, they had 3 x 22-year-old d in their top four and the oldest guy in their top four was 25.
It depends on their ability.
You certainly know how to create straw man arguments, you’ll fit in perfectly here.:)
And Colorado has another RHD right on the cusp.
https://theathletic.com/2692774/2021/07/07/he-checks-every-box-avalanche-2020-top-pick-justin-barron-ready-to-push-for-nhl-after-impressive-pro-debut/?source=user_shared_article
I find this comment odd as I don’t know if a single poster on here in favor of actual assets going out for Keith or in favor of any sort of deal for Keith unless there is legit bad cap going out and/or retaining.
Even those that are “on board” with him coming in and maybe helping at 2LD don’t seem highly enthused about the potential and, of course, require the Oilers to not give up much (or anything) nor take on the entire cap without mitigation thereof.
I saw that this morning and wondered about it myself. I don’t recall reading anything on this blog that would approach Mr. Stauffer’s or Mr. Spector’s defense of the acquisition.
There is a sizeable contingent that believes Keith can thrive in a second pairing role.
I am completely against that concept, as is the Twitter mob, because Keith has undergone a step-wise decline that is not in keeping with a top 4 D, particularly at his current age.
This is a bit of a crutch.
You can get ripped off in any trade, but my point of contention is Duncan Keith cannot play in the top 4. This is what I was referring to, the contingent of Lowetide commentators (not LT), Stauffer, and Spector who believe in this particular concept. Let me be specific: Keith at a cap hit equivalent of 2.5 million is still not worth it because he is at the same point in his career as a Spezza, Simmonds, Thornton, and Chara. If he wants to come here and play for the minimum as a 6/7 D, fine by me, but to be honest I’d rather have Russell in the 7 spot, as he is an elite PK guy and can play either side.
I’m not interested in jettisoning Jones to free up cap space, and I am 100% against any trade involving Jones and Keith. Why?
1) We can buy out Neal without anyone’s help. Kassian can be traded. It would be nice to get rid of Koskinen if he is not in the plans, but again not a do or die situation.
2) I believe strongly in Jones as a top 4 D (i.e. am bullish) and think he should be protected. Even if you don’t think his long-term future is in Edmonton, allowing the asset to appreciate in value makes sense. Maybe Jones yields a goalie or a top 6 forward if he puts together a good year.
Jones is pissed off because he didn’t get to play, but is the relationship as tenuous as was formerly the case with Puljujarvi? Or with Hall, who may very well sign here?
Rehabilitate the relationship, Ken. Jones is a keeper.
Fair enough but that isn’t what you originally posted. You originally posted “it appears the majority here and the MSM favour acquiring Keith” and I don’t think that’s the case at all. Even those (on here) that think he could play 2LD, or play 2LD better than the revolving door this past season, generally aren’t in favor of acquiring Keith and would prefer other options persued.
It would appear that Jones may top out as a third pairing D that can play up the lineup for short periods. His major attribute is his skating but that is negated by his lack of physicality and unwillingness and or inability to correct his weaknesses such as getting in shooting lanes. The fact that two younger bigger and more talented D are pushing from behind will tell the tale shortly. Jones has value but in my opinion is the player from the group applying for the left side second and third pairing that should be moved.
Colorado certainly did.
The Oilers also finished 2nd in the division with no real 2LD and a revolving door of under-achievers in that regard.
Both teams underperformed their expectations in the playoffs.
Maybe it was something to do with their D make-up?
*Caveat: This is not an endorsement of Keith or similar but just Devils’ advocate
My position is very clear: Keith is not a top 4 D. He’s not worth 5.x, 4.x, 3.x, or 2.x. He’s a third pairing guy who can’t play on the PP and can’t PK. He’s very limited.
The position of Keith advocates is murky. If the price is right, if the cap hit and stars align, etc. Recall the outrage was not for including Jones, but contemplating Jones + Samorukov. Jones is a hell of a player to be giving up to help Chicago.
There is absolutely reticence or reluctance to have a young D-core. It’s not coming from me but it has been posted here for sure. You are absolutely right with Colorado. With that example, I’m not sure where the fear in this community comes from.
Subject to his play during camp, of course, I am just fine with Sammy as 3LD – i think he’s ready or just on the cusp.
I know you are bullish on Jones but its really tough to slot him in there with a raw rookie at 3LD – that’s a lot of risk. I mean, he was given that opportunity to start 2021 and failed.
Yes, he filed, it wasn’t “coaching and deployment” – recall he was one of the worst Oilers in each of the first three games. Three different Cult of Hockey graders gave him a 2 or 3 in those games. Sure, he deserved (and got) additional chances and was better but still inconsistent and prone to highly visible mistakes that led to goals against. Some of his metrics look good but, lets be hoenst, he never ever earned that 2LD spot again through the year – never took an opportunity and ran with it.
This isn’t to say he can’t do that this year but that left D deployment is very risky.
I’m not saying I want Keith there and I can’t see a trade that makes sense for the Oilers but I’m not as down on Keith as you are and do think that he can provide better play than what the revolving door of Jones, Lagesson, Koekkoek, Russell provided last year. That’s not to say he can be better than what they might bring this season.
I mean, who doesn’t like foreplay?……. sheepishly raises his hand…. I’m just lazy man.
and at 10min12sec (including the intro)….. I mean come on…. I can grill a steak in less time than that.
That’s not lazy. That’s inexperience!?
Very much looking forward to your conversation with Bruce this morning, should be some damn good radio.
I could probably get behind Keith Gretzky as the next GM, but the other names I would have big time hesitancy. I think if Kevin Lowe was ever hired into another position of hockey power, there would be a riot… at least on Twitter. Oh man, could you imagine?
People! … I mean Glenn Sather is only 77…. (Messier the coffee boy…. uhh. I mean Assistant GM)
Lets get Mikko running the stairs in Rogers Place.
Guess I shoulda used the sarcasm tildes ~~