Superstition

by Lowetide

I mentioned yesterday that this offseason was off to a strange start. The Ryan Nugent-Hopkins contract was a solid start, the Matej Blumel walk away an alarm bell and the Devin Shore signing wasn’t a major issue for me but had a lot of Oilers fans concerned.

The trade for Duncan Keith is absolutely the defining move of summer for Ken Holland. We’ll get to the cap implications in a minute, but there are things we can conclude about the deal. First, the Oilers wanted Keith. The organization ran through roadblocks, stop signs and choppers in the air to get their man.

On the positive side, Keith is proven. On the negative side, he’s an old player. That doesn’t concern Holland, but the trade is a risky one and the risk is all in Edmonton. Holland owns that. He seems content with that scenario.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

POSSIBLE ROSTER

This is James Neal bought out, Kyle Turris in the minors, Dominik Kahun lost to the Kraken and William Lagesson on waivers and hopefully on his way to Bakersfield.

There is $1.1 million left, Oscar Klefbom is happily throwing his children in the air at home and we hope to see him again.

I got tired of looking for a center who could play on the third line who was worth $4 million, so I added a value LW (Tatar) and moved Nuge to center. It won’t happen but this roster looks stronger. I added Jordan Martinook because I’ve always liked his play.

SWEDISH POSTER

Since everyone is loving this trade so much I’ll just add a short comment on throw in Tim Söderlund, who’s played a couple of seasons with Filip Berglund in Skellefteå, think they even spent some time together with the junior team. He’s a small, speedy forward with good not great hands who’s offense has never really translated to the pro ranks.

I don’t think he has the playmaking ability nor the shot to produce at higher levels. Though I think part of the issue was that he left Sweden a season or two too early, before he really “popped”, I think he could have added a layer as a finisher in the style of Joakim Nygård had he stayed but know I have a hard time seeing him figure it out and become an NHL contributer. He doesn’t have near the top speed of Nygård btw, Söderlund’s speed is more about quickness, I mean in terms of figuring out how to be able to use his speed to create a lot of chances rather than a clean shot or great vision to produce.


The hope is that he finds a way to use his speed, skill combo more efficiently, he skates a lot, works hard on the forecheck but it doesn’t really lead to much. That hope is slim though, he’s had a couple of pro coaches trying to help him figure it out already. At least he’s a familiar face for Filip Berglund coming over and he adds some speed to the Condors.

THOUGHTS ON THE DEAL

I’m writing this at eight this morning after a deep sleep (the Jones article written for The Athletic was cathartic) and am reminded of a trade from the past.

In the Andrew Cogliano deal, Steve Tambellini showed he didn’t have the kind of value on the player as fans or the hockey industry. Like Cogliano, Jones can skate and is making progress (as per my Jones piece) but Holland and the coaching staff (and the players according to rumour) went another way. Like Cogliano, Jones needs some patience and I expect he’ll get it in Chicago or elsewhere.

Beyond that, the deal shows Holland and his management team missed badly on the value of cap room. Duncan Keith’s value to the Oilers will play out next winter, and as he’s one of my favourite players over the last 20 years I get the excitement of adding a future Hall of Famer. I do think there’s evidence he’ll perform better with fewer minutes and a capable partner (I’ll guess Adam Larsson or Ethan Bear).

The risk is on Holland’s side and that’s a tell. Some of those dollars should have been retained by Stan Bowman and the ‘Hawks, allowing the Oilers to sign a more substantial scoring winger for the McDavid line, a better No. 3 center or a better goaltender.

Perhaps, as in the example above, Holland gets all those things. Imagine, as is possible, Keith rebounds enough for fans to place him beside Mike Smith as an elder who performed well in the Holland ‘old guy’ club.

It still doesn’t change the truth. Ken Holland gave up too much in the Duncan Keith trade. Oilers management needs an analytics department they trust and respect, and a cap expert who will give good advice they’ll listen to at important moments.

Edmonton Oilers fans make these things possible through buying tickets, product and goods from team partners. That cap room was hard earned by fans, who are in fact the bosses.

This is a stand and deliver summer for Ken Holland. I’ll give full credit for the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins signing, and despite my genuine concern over the Matej Blumel non-signing will admit it isn’t earth shattering.

The Duncan Keith trade signals Oilers management does not have a full understanding of the market at this time. That should be unsettling just a few days before free agency. Holland will need to deliver a handsome return with the cap room he has left.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning on the show, we begin at 10 on TSN1260. Blackhawks reporter Tab Bamford will join us at 10:20, and Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will pop in at 11 to discuss his coverage of the deal. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Jaxon

What are your guesses on the cap hit and term for these players? Do these prices sound reasonable?
Hamilton – $7.5M to $8.5M? $8M x 7 years?
Hall – $6.0M – $7.5M? $7M x 5 years?
Haula – $1.5M to $2.0M? $1.75M x 2 years? (3rd line C or W)
Ullmark – $3.0M to $5.0M? $3.75M x 5 years? (or Mrazek or Grubauer?) – if we can somehow get rid of Koskinen
Smith – $1.5M to $3.5M? $2.5M x 2 years?

Between these 2 options, which one would you pick?
Hamilton, Haula (or other C under $2M), and one of Ullmark/Mrazek/Grubauer?
or
Hall, Haula (or other C under $2M), and one of Ullmark/Mrazek/Grubauer?

I would love to see Hamilton, even at $8.0M x 7. I think that would mean Nurse gets the same next year, which I think is fine too. Maybe Nurse gets less, like $7.5M x 8. Hall would be great in the top 6, but I think Hamilton and Nurse would give us the top pair in the NHL when they play together and one of the best top 4 D in the NHL when they play on different pairs. And that would continue for the next 7 years! They’ll still be performing quite well at the end of their contracts, I’m sure. That allows them to take their time and not pressure all of Samorukov, Broberg, and Bouchard.

Ullmark, Grubauer, and Mrazek would be great additions at this stage, especially if they draft Cossa. I like Ullmark because he is still quite young at 26, although Grubauer may be the better goalie. Would Grubauer cost more? I also like that Draisaitl would have another fellow German on the team, especially if it looks like Kahun might be lost in expansion. I’m not sure if dumping Koskinen is in any way possible. Maybe they buy him out, but I never like buyouts as an option.

TheGreatBigMac

Unless we do some big free agent on a one year deal we likely can’t get rid of Koskinen. We need approx his cap hit in one year contracts to allow for Nurse, Puljujarvi, and Bear contract increases next year. Buying out Neal will allow for a 1LW and modest 1A goalie and some upgrade at 3C/bottom 6.

MushedPeas

Lord Gord as my witness, sick to death of having to resort to “Well, I’ll cheer for him.” /air wank job emoji

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Same discussion going on with the Wild as the Suter/Parise buy-outs mean they are voluntarily operating with $5-$14 million less cap for the next few years. They won’t be the last this summer to save real dollars in this way. I guess mgmt thinks it’s more palatable to the fans to be cap constrained than just saying they can’t afford these contracts anymore.

MrEd

I like Holloway with RNH. I think the kid has a knack on the dot.

If you have to choose one buyout between Neal and Koskinen this year- I think it’s Koskinen. He has used all of his lives with the Oilers.
Neal fills the Chaisson hole on the PP and the decision can be made on him next year.

Add a UFA LW for 5.5M and you have enough to sign Smith for another year and a 1B for 3M x 2.

Last edited 3 months ago by MrEd
pts2pndr

Buying out Koskinen is a waste of money. Pay a little extra for goal tending this year to have money available for next two years.

TheGreatBigMac

A Koskinen buyout gets you $3M minus $1M for a replacement is $2M. Neal gets you approx $3.85M and you don’t have to shop for 2 goalies. With priorities being approx 1LW, 1G, 3C, I’m pretty sure the math will say we need that extra $2M for the 3C/bottom 6 upgrade.

Bling

The whole “veteran intangibles” piece that the Keith advocates are missing is that those great Chicago, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, LA teams had tremendous depth. We’re talking about great players on the third line. I don’t think any of those teams had a declining 38 year old in their top 4 D.

I’m not saying the intangible stuff doesn’t matter, it clearly does, but you need lots and lots of guys who can play.

So if you think Keith is the solution, you don’t know what the problem is. This is (one of) my chief concerns. Keith is going to need his hand held by Larsson and we’re going to have to pray that Tipp yanks him from special teams duty, because he’s really not that good there.

I said it earlier: either way, Keith is window dressing. He is past the point of playing a meaningful role on a great hockey team. They need to get Hall, fix the bottom six, and hope that Broberg/Samorukov come quick.

Redbird62

Here’s a smattering of older players (focusing mostly on D) in the last 12 years that helped their teams win cup or come close playing important roles. When Pittsburgh won in 2009, they had Gonchar 35 and Hal Gill 34 (gill played the 4th most minutes in the playoffs on the Pittsburgh D that year). They also had Guerin at 37. When they won in 16/17, Matt Cullen was 38/39, Chris Kunitz was 35/36. Daley was the old timer on the blue line that year at 31. As mentioned by OP earlier, Orpik was 38 by the time the Caps raised the cup in 2018, but he was mostly the number 5 guy. 42 year old Zdeno Chara played over 21 minutes a night through to game 7 of the finals in the 18/19 playoffs for the Bruins. 34 Year old Jay Bouwmeester was the number one left D for the St. Louis Blues. 37 year old Willie Mitchell logged 22 minutes a night for LA in 2014. You don’t have to have older veterans to be a true contender for the cup, but good ones can definitely help.

jp

Well, guess I was 22 minutes late on this. But yeah.

jp

The whole “veteran intangibles” piece that the Keith advocates are missing is that those great Chicago, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, LA teams had tremendous depth. We’re talking about great players on the third line. I don’t think any of those teams had a declining 38 year old in their top 4 D.

37 year old Brooks Orpik lead the Caps in +/- when they won the Cup in 2018.

36 year old Ron Hainsey was 2nd in TOI for the Penguins in 2017.
(they also had 40 year old Matt Cullen and 37 year old Chris Kunitz playing top 9 roles up front, as they did the previous year when they were 1 year younger)

37 year old Willie Mitchell was a top 4 for the Kings in 2014 (likewise at age 35 in 2012).

Not quite 38, but none were comparable players to Keith at their peaks either. It’s not rare to have ancient players playing important roles on cup winning teams.

You need to go back to the 2008 Red Wings to find an actually 38 year old top 4 D (Nick Lidstrom, who was 1D) on a Cup winner. That team also had 35 year old Brian Rafalski as #2D, and 46! year old Chris Chelios on the 3rd pair).

So here we are.

Old D/top 4/playoff success isn’t doomed to failure though.

Woogie63

I don’t think anyone thinks Keith is THE solution. Keith played a meaningful role in the NHL last year, he will be complimented by a Larsson, but Larsson will not need to hold his hand to play second pairing for the Oilers.

For the next season I would bet on Keith before Broberg/Samorukov in second pairing. That is how we have done it for too many losing seasons

pts2pndr

The problem is it’s like buy a years worth of condoms for a one night stand!😉

Clarkenstein

Never hurts to be an optimist!! LOL

Jaxon

Here are a few older players playing significant roles on contending teams in the playoffs:
Chris Chelios played 26:22 for 23 games in the playoffs at 40 years old to win the Cup. He won another Cup at 46 in a lesser role.
Zdeno Chara won a Cup at 33 playing 27:39 per over 24 games. Then went to the finals at 35 playing 29:32 per over 22 games and again at 41, playing 21:28 over 23 games
Ray Bourque won a Cup at 40 playing 28:32! per for 21 games!
Rob Blake lost in the conference final at 40 years old, playing 23:20 per.
Nick Lidstrom played 26:49/gm in 22 games to win a cup at 37 yrs old, and at 38 went to the final playing 25:39 in 21 games.
Scott Stevens went to the finals at 36, playing 22:37 per, and won Cups at 35, and 38 playing 25:25 and 24:44 per respectively.
Al MacInnis lost in the conference finals at 37 playing 30:46 per.
Larry Robinson won a Cup at 34, then went to the final at 37.

Chelios, Chara, Bourque, Blake, Lidstrom, Stevens, MacInnis, and Robinson all played significant roles in a good playoff run at 37 or older. I think Keith fits in with these players as far as skill and accomplishments. He may surprise us on a new team, closer to his son.

Some other decent but a bit younger runs:
Chris Pronger went to the finals at 35 playing 29:03 per night. (We may have seen some older playoff runs if not for career-ending injuries)
Larry Murphy won a Cup at 35 and 36.
Shea Weber made it to the finals at 35, playing 25:13 per game.
Dano Boyle went to the conference finals at 34, playing 26:11 a night and again at 38 playing 19:48 per.
Kimmo Timonen went to the finals at 34 playing 26:38 per and won a Cup at 39 in a bottom-pairing role.
Scott Niedermeyer won a Cup at 33, playing 29:51 per game.
Steve Duchesne won a Cup in a diminished role at 36 years old.

Harpers Hair

comment image
Dobber
@DobberHockey
·
9h

If Edmonton waited a day, they could have Ryan Suter instead of Duncan Keith, at a lower cap hit, and keep Caleb Jones and a 3rd. If that’s the direction they were looking.

leadfarmer

Ryan Suter was not going to come here!
he’s a Wisconsin guy and will go to a midwest US team

flea

Chicago has a hole at LHD…

Clarkenstein

Not for long. CHI will sign Suter for about $1.5M, have Caleb Jones and an extra $4.0M in cap space. This is how smart GM’s operate.

OriginalPouzar

Holland didn’t just acquire Keith at full rate because he is a former elite d-man – he is clearly putting stock and value in his championship pedigree and his value to those championships.

Nick Leddy, Ryan Suter, etc. they do not bring the attributes that Holland believes Keith does.

100%, one can disagree on the value of those attributes but referencing every other aging d-man that’s available has no value.

Bling

Hats off to Mr. Daniel Nugent-Bowman! Proud to be an Athletic subscriber after listening to the Holland media avail.

DNB asked the tough (necessary) questions and he hung in there and pressed when Holland went off the rails. That is not an easy thing to do in the moment and I think DNB showed a lot of heart and smarts. Bravo. Good — no — great stuff!

Also, hats off to Mr. Ryan Rishaug! Holland responded to his question with something like, “well I looked at the record book.” Rishaug could have jumped in with a, “what do you mean by that?” or some other follow-up question. Instead, he let Holland’s dead stupid response hang in the air. Tremendous! Journalism is alive!

Incidentally (but tangentially), that silence was so long even Stauffer and Spec briefly had their world views shaken, sort of like a North Korean on the verge of escaping to Seoul. Spec came real close to getting a clue and then he wrote that article on sportsnet, so he’s definitely back in Pyongyang. If you follow the analogy to its conclusion, for Stauffer it was all just a dream and he never really left in the first place 🙂

Anyways we (I) dump on the MSM and with DNB, Rishaug, and Willis we have a good young core. Don’t ever sell out, you three. LT is like the Duncan Keith to shepherd them along, perfect perfect perfect.

Redbird62

Before believing any interpretation presented here of Holland’s responses to the media, I would suggest people actually watch the interview themselves and judge what happened themselves rather that relying on the opinions of people who already have a overly negative (or overly positive) view on anything the Oiler’s management ever says or does. And if you do that, try to do it with an open mind.

Bling

I encourage people to watch the avail. I don’t think I’m overly positive or negative on the Oilers. I would say it’s almost impossible to have a positive impression of Holland from that avail.

Things Holland could have said, but didn’t:

1 – We watched all the tape we could of Keith playing for the past two seasons and we came to a consensus that he can still play.

2 – We had our own analytics team assess the player, and/or we requested the input of a third party firm.

3 – We compared tape of his game over the past two seasons to his game from five years ago and we don’t believe there is a significant drop-off.

Holland didn’t say any of those things, and to be honest, I doubt they did any of those things. Why do I say I doubt it? Because it’s the same crooked, lazy, short hand decision-making process that led to prematurely re-signing Kassian and signing Turris. It’s the same wayward logic that results in having a piss-poor bottom six. It’s the hiring process over the years.

There is no due diligence. There is guess-work and the record book and what we knew to be true 5 years ago.

Another thing: people disagree. You can disagree without being a dink about it. I disagree with the move, but maybe I’m wrong. Maybe playing 5 minutes less per night with Larsson makes Keith a legit top 4 D on a contender. Maybe Russell can teach him to PK as well, and then Bouchard can teach him how to QB a PP. I’m forgetting who is mentoring who, now 🙂

Anyways, Holland was petulant and immature. If you believe in your decision, defend it and move on.

OriginalPouzar

1) Holland spoke about how his scouts watched a lot of Keith’s games from this past season – he also went in to great detail with respect to the process they went through the past two weeks and the various persons they spoke to about Keith (in addition to the film)

2) He was very clear he was aware of the numbers but was also very clear he thinks Keith will have a different role on the ice as an Oiler and very clear that a material portion of the attributes he acquired Keith for are not related to on ice numbers by a minute muncher on the worst 5 on 5 team in the league.

3) He was very clear that he knows this is not the same Keith from 5-7-9 years ago and they know they aren’t acquiring a generational #1 d-man.

Harpers Hair

This.

A huge amount of respect for DNB doing the job the main stream media abandoned decades ago.

Jordan

I hadn’t listed to the Holland interview until reading this.

I have listened to it now.

Respect for DNB for asking the question and not letting it go.

Respect for Holland for trying to defend his decision to make the trade.

I’d have walked away from it, but it’s interesting to hear Holland explain why he didn’t.

OriginalPouzar

Holland’s response “I looked at the Guid and Record Book” was an epic troll on the “new age” media/bloggers. He knew exactly what he was doing when he used that phrase (3 times) – full wit by Holland.

Harpers Hair

Or half wit.

OriginalPouzar

Cool value add.

Bling

Maybe his delivery was off. That silence was awkward as hell.

JOFA

I’m not so sure that was the case. This is a GM past his prime. He wasn’t completely prepared for what should have been considered fair questions IMO. He’s used to babbling on, and being able to control the narrative. I’m sure he’s an amazing storyteller, if you’re able to stay awake, and listen to his delusions of grandeur. He reminds me of the guy sitting at the end of the bar in his high school football jacket reliving the glory years. Perfect salesman/politician. People will be less than impressed with Kenny’s tenure unfortunately. Oiler fans deserve better.

OriginalPouzar

From listening to him over the last few years, he is acutely aware of everything related to the team. I think he knew exactly what he was doing in his response.

McSorley33

Stauffer has gone full Baghdad Bob here…..

JOFA

Good post Bling. I was extremely impressed with DNB. Don’t second guess yourself young man, you did an amazing job. You should be extremely proud of the quality work you do.

leadfarmer

I can’t wait for us to sign Larsson so we can hear DSF go “well he sucks anyway”

dustrock

I think we need to parse Holland a bit here. His straw man argument is that he’d pay more for a UFA LHD in the open market.

This may be true.

However, is he showing his hand that he has no real concept of exploring the trade market?

Sure no UFA LHD out there but an expansion draft, maybe other possibilities?

Scungilli Slushy

I think he was clear that no one with Keith’s bag of tricks would be there. Either not available or big money/term/assets. The cast offs won’t be high enders, it doesn’t make sense that if they are that good their teams cut them loose. They keep the best, right?

Leddy would not bring what Keith does. Martinez IMO is no where close to Keith now as an overall D or leader. Yes more points.

Oleksiak no, and talk about the cliff as a 6 foot 14 defenseman who isn’t that impressive now, and needs term and salary, when there are higher ceiling in house options soon.

He will be done the second he can’t turn fast enough, he’s not Chara. We know because he’s 29 this season.

JimmyV1965

This is the only defence I will give Holland. Martinez and Oleksiak are likely signing somewhere for four years. We don’t want or need that. There’s still lots of other options out there though.

Scungilli Slushy

Had a chance to listen to LT, awesome as usual boss!

It had me thinking, I thought Saad or other US born UFAs might not want to sign in Edmonton, I think that may have changed now to a degree.

I really like Saad, although he may be a risk given where he played on the Avs. But, he is such a smart player, well established, with grit enough, speed and size, hands, I think he is the best UFA for Connor. More than Hall or Hyman.

I also noticed when Keith was asked about Oiler players and his thoughts, he mentioned Connor and Leon, Nuggies a bit, skipped Nurse (he wants his job), and mentioned Kassian.

That is interesting. I responded to OP about that he would be protected, hadn’t assumed that before, and thought like others that the Plumber’s Krak may take him.

If Keith likes him then maybe no.

So has Holland pooched the kitty for an impact winger?

There is a consideration that we need to keep in mind. There is a very high chance Holloway starts in the A, and hits over 1 PPG and earns a promotion, very high IMO. So they need to account for that. Or wait.

Also that McLeod is defensively responsible now, big and blazing fast, wins faceoffs, he’s made.

I think they will give Turris another shot, and sign Glendening because Wings. I know everyone hates Glendening, but he had 6 G 15 P and was plus 3 on a bad team. And is wicked bad at RS faceoffs. And can skate.

They squeeze Khaira.

First scenario they buy out Neal. Klef LTIR.

Saad 5.5 x5 McD JP
Nuggies Leon Yama 1.5 x 1
Benson 850K Mcleod Kassian (light comp)
Shore Glendening 1.5 x 2 Archie (heavy comp)
Turris Khaira (prove it!)

Nurse Bear
Keith Larsson 4 x 4
Russell/ Lags Bouch

Smith 2 x 1
Koski

4.8M left on CapFriendly, 76.6M cap. Holloway coming. Not capped out yet and a decent lineup. Not many changes from outside either.

I do the same thing with Neal on LTIR and now there is 6.7M available, 74.7 cap.

Could be interesting.

leadfarmer

Saad at 5.5 x 5 is too much
if that’s the price I’d rather go shopping in the Palat aisle

DevilsLettuce

We all remember how the Golden Knights took advantage of some desperate teams on the trade market during their 2018 expansion draft. Seattle Kraken GM Ron Francis could go about things slightly differently in the latest NHL expansion draft, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

“I think Seattle’s No. 1 priority is maintaining financial flexibility,” Friedman said. “They’re being handed a clean slate. You don’t want to make the mistake of ruining your financial clean slate by taking too many of other people’s problems. … I think there’s a lot of teams that want Seattle to help them. I don’t think Seattle’s moving that quickly and I don’t think it’s going to be painless.”

Kraken will not be holding the league hostage hoarding all the LHD out there thankfully for us all.

Harpers Hair

You’re misreading this.

Seattle won’t be taking on bad contracts to help out other teams unless they can exact a king’s ransom in return.

However, they will be picking a ton of D who are exposed in the draft if the price is right and then flipping them for other assets.

They will pass on the “problems”.

leadfarmer

Wild just showed that teams won’t play that game

Harpers Hair

No.

The Wild showed they won’t play that game.

There are 29 other teams that might.

leadfarmer

So you like that Holland addressed the defensive hole then?
Cause you’re going back and forth here

Harpers Hair

You can address any hole if you massively overpay.

Reja

Supply and demand create a shortage then pounce.

LMHF#1

I’m kinda surprised nobody’s mentioned Adam Oates. Remember when that happened?

So many good players who aren’t hockey-geriatric available this year…and they’ll be in on *maybe* 1. Gross. This could be a completely elite team next season.

Instead it will be ‘excuses by November’ and “oh, not the year, just have to wait again”. Rinse and repeat.

I still don’t think this crew at the top really cares about winning. Nothing they’ve done in 15 years has changed that for me and it has only become worse since McDavid because their performance floor is high. Tragic for the players. Tragic for the fans.

DevilsLettuce

Adam Oates was on his 4th team in 4 years when he came to Oilerville.

Duncan Keith is coming in to win 5 more rings by the time he’s 44.

Tommer Freaking McBrady.

dustrock

There is a (was small, getting larger) part of me who thinks when the Oilers won the McDavid lottery, there was a collective “oh shittttt” in the organization, and not in a good way.

LMHF#1

I think most of them simply saw dollar signs. It was the only concern I could see at the time. It has been true so far.

Redbird62

I agree that Oiler’s management for most of the last 15 years has made more mistakes that most of the NHL upper management’s in the league. That they have the worst points % in the NHL in that time span and made the fewest playoff appearances is clear evidence that they haven’t been doing a lot right. That’s not the same as saying they don’t care. I don’t think for a minute that Katz, Lowe, MacTavish, Gretzky or any of them do it solely for money. They are all driven to succeed and probably blindly assume that when things go bad, they can fix it because their egos, which helped them with their previous successes, tell them they can.

So far Holland is 100% in his 2 seasons in getting the team to the playoffs. He knows that is not good enough, but it is much better than most of the last 13 seasons. He wants to win. Period. Every player personnel decision he makes is with that objective. He may get in wrong, but not because he doesn’t care. It’s fair to question his (and his predecessor’s) judgement, but attacks on character because you disagree with hockey decisions is really unnecessary.

Last edited 3 months ago by Redbird62
LMHF#1

I’m not attacking character.

It’s a decision.

One I vehemently disagree with – but a decision nonetheless.

McDavid was a license to print money.

He also should have been the path to multiple championships. I don’t believe that has been driving decisions.

They’ve consistently kept the team just as marketable as it has had to be.

OriginalPouzar

Firstly, McDavid doesn’t turn 25 until half way through next season – there is still very much a path to multiple championships.

Ovechkin, arguably the best goal scorer of all-time didn’t win a championship until in to his 30s – interestingly enough, a 36 year old Brooks Orpik, with championship pedgiree and a cap hit of $5.5M was on that team.

Ray Borque, one of the best d-men of all time, didn’t win until the verge of retirement (and as a deadline rental). Iginal, nothing. Yzerman, years before he won, etc., etc., etc.

I’m also not sure why McDavid should just equal multiple championships – of all the four North American pro sports, hockey is the game where one player can impact results the lease (save for goalies) – well, maybe baseball as well – this isn’t the NBA or NFL.

McDavid has the highest cap hit by $2M – he’s the world’s best player but he’s paid for it and its on a hard cap. Its been proven that you can’t just put any middling winger with McDavid and the’ll turn in to a superstar – yes, he’ll zoom almost everyone but he’s not Crosby in that regard (see Kunitz) – McDavid has a unique style that isn’t all that easy to find real chemistry with.

The Oilers have been 2nd in the division two years in a row – legit playoff teams. The playoffs are a bit of a different animal, the players are realizing this and the GM knows this. Perhaps a player like Duncan Keith will prove invaluable in the playoffs for multiple reasons – perhaps his presence gets an additional PP or two a game, for example – that’s not unreasonable to suggest in today’s game.

This move seems like an expensive addition but maybe Holland is right and this type of player will have material benefits to the team and also to the young developing d-men.

Redbird62

“I still don’t think this crew at the top really cares about winning.” Maybe not a strong character attack, but to suggest that the management of an NHL team doesn’t care about winning is a character indictment of hockey professionals. And spending beyond the cap (including numerous buyouts and buried contracts) and chasing free agents like Lucic and Sekera are not prudent business decisions if your goal is to do the minimum it takes to keep the fan base happy. Pocklington got desperate and shed salary at the expense of a competitive team (though he never tried to lie about this – his team his perogative). The post-Pocklington ownership group wanted to win, but they were up front that with their’s and the Oilers resources at the time, they couldn’t spend like the other big market teams. I don’t know these guys personally, so I don’t really know if any of them are truly great individuals character wise, but I am not going to make judgements about their motivations based on their transaction performance.

Lemieux made one playoff appearance in his first 7 seasons back when only 5 teams missed the playoffs out of 21, before winning his first cup. Detroit had Yzerman for 12 seasons, Federov for 7 and Lidstrom for 6 before they won their first cup Yzerman was 31, Federov was 26 and Lidstrom was 26 by that time. Ovechkin didn’t get past the 2nd round for 12 seasons before winning his cup at 31. Even Tampa with Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman didn’t win their first cup till they were 29, 26 and 28. There is still time for McDavid/Draisaitl and Nurse.

Last edited 3 months ago by Redbird62
MushedPeas

It’s not about caring. It’s about old hockey men believing in things they don’t understand.

Last edited 3 months ago by MushedPeas
Whaler Slamamoto

An NHL star wants to come to Edmonton. Extremely rare. Enjoy it. You can hate him if it doesn’t work out. I’m looking forward to it. The team is better. Looking forward to the next move.

I can’t hate on any moves until after next playoffs. If it’s true that KH asked his players about Keith, they suggested him, and he went out and got him, that sounds like a good GM to me. I think the core would be quite pumped as well. I really doubt that Connor and Leon are sitting lakeside somewhere losing their minds in a comment section.

OriginalPouzar

A couple things:

1) “former” star, no?
2) Of course, I’ll cheer for keith – will never hate him.
3) I agree the team is better today than yesterday but there is a good chance this move prohibits the team from being as good at the end of the off-season as it could have been. Can’t say for sure though
4) I don’t think the group told Holland to go out and get Duncan Keith – they likely did mention some more “winning experience” would be welcome but I don’t think they targeted Keith – Holland did indeed (from accounts) poll the top players on Keith when he became available.

Whaler Slamamoto

I was just riffing off a dustrock -Friedman reference from earlier. Not sure if I was in tune or not.

OriginalPouzar

Some solid tidbits from the TSN guys in Insider Trading:

1) Landeskog and the Avs are apparently “not even close” – unless. theAvs change markedly, he will test the market.

2) About six or so teams interested in Drieger (including Seattle) – will likely come in around the $3.5M AAV.

jp

Sakic must be trying to get Landeskog to accept the Nuge deal.

Surprised about only 6 teams on Dreidger. I’d love to give him a chance to prove his first 38 NHL games are legit for $3.5M.

leadfarmer

Could I just point one thing out
Even strength
Keith with Lankinen gf%. 49%
Keith with Subban 37
and lankinen was very good for like 15 games and then fell off

leadfarmer

Something something goalie

leadfarmer

The year before he had 55% GF on even strength share with Corey Crawford

rogue

Well I think Larssen is gone. This may be the only way he can fill other needs after trading for Keith.

Harpers Hair

Larssen would be a perfect partner for Quinn Hughes in Vancouver.

If Benning moves on from Nate Schmidt and his $5.9 million cap hit, he will have the cap space to bring in Larssen.

That Vancouver has a huge alumni group of Swedes still living in the city and the presence of the Sedins in management should give the Canucks a leg up in negotiations.

leadfarmer

Philip? Absolutely!!

leadfarmer

Like Nuges horses leg up?

OriginalPouzar

All the Swedes want to play together just like all the brothers want to play together.

Redbird62

Right, because the Sedins know a thing or two about winning. Oh wait, that’s right, they never actually won any championship titles in the NHL. And in their one trip to the finals, Henrik got one assist in 7 games and was -7 in the series including -4 in game 7 and Daniel picked up 4 assists, was -5 in the series and -4 in the deciding game as well.

OriginalPouzar

I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t sign with the Oilers.

leadfarmer

Me too

MushedPeas

Agreed.

Scungilli Slushy

Aside from him letting the reporters get under his skin, I think Holland explained himself fully and was honest.

I get it. I think I would have done the same in his cranky pants.

Of course there is work yet to be done.

I really like that Keith doesn’t want to talk about his play. I think it’s more than that he feels his play is up in the air.

I always feel when players start waxing poetic about things, themselves or the team and his awesome it is etc, a fail soon follows.

I felt some Oilers did that a bit this last playoff disappointment.

Nothing matters except what happens on the ice. Love it. Perfect.

Last edited 3 months ago by Scungilli Slushy
Ozoil

He was definitely not happy with DNB

Scungilli Slushy

Nope.

Scungilli Slushy

Minusers

Vy you heff to be so medd??

OriginalPouzar

Holland mentioning to Stauf that if he was going to be getting a 2nd pairing LD in the free-agent market, he’d have to overpay in cap hit or term because that is how free agency works (cited the last 20 years of deals done).

Stauff then asked him, straight up if he’s willing to over-pay in term or cap hit for a top 6 LW and Holland says, yes, he’d going to have to – need to or else they are sitting on the sidelines and they need players.

We do know now for certainty that Holland is looking for another top 6 LW in free agency.

Dac189

Hall 6m*7 incoming.

leadfarmer

There is no good UFA LHD options.
that’s what I’ve been trying to say!
Martinez is gonna get a 4 year contract
Oleksiak probably 5-6 year and warning signs galore
Goligoski is done
teams are gonna lose defensemen in the expansion draft causing a feeding frenzy for the few decent players
I don’t like the cap hit but I’m very happy that Holland identified it as the most concerning area which it absolutely was

Harpers Hair

Seattle will be accumulating LHD in large numbers in the expansion draft and flipping them to fill other needs.

Suggesting none will be available is naive.

DevilsLettuce

Seattle has done none of that, and this is for a fact. You don’t have a clue what Seattle or any other team is going to do.

If they do load up on LHD you’ll be finally correct about something in hockey for once. Light a candle.

ArmchairGM

Goligoski is done? He produced better numbers than Keith last year… is that a bad sign?

Ozoil

If you think you can’t squeeze gms in this league, you are likely the gm being squeezed

leadfarmer

Curious why you left off that the ask for Jones from Hawks is Dach, either Boquist or Debrincat and a pick?
Havd fun with that

Harpers Hair

What you ask and what you get are often very different unless you’re dealing with Ken Holland.

Redbird62

Bowman wanted Bear, McLeod and/or Samorukov. Nugent Hopkins wanted 8 x >$6 million.

Harpers Hair

You have no idea what they wanted.

Redbird62

This from a guy who is constantly saying what people want often with no sources, reliable or otherwise.

You quote Elliot Friedman as a reliable source when it suits your needs to disparage the Oilers, but ignore him when he says that Bowman asked for Bear/McLeod. Ken Holland and Ryan Nugent Hopkins (you know the guys who actually signed the deal) both said in their press conferences after the deal was signed that each had to compromise a fair bit to get the deal done, Ryan on money, Ken on term.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to Redbird62

 July 13, 2021 6:01 pm

You have no idea what they wanted.

We don’t? Then please let us know when we should and when we shouldn’t trust Friedman’s info…..

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Another trade or two with Holland and Bowman should have everything he needs to get it done.

leadfarmer

Didn’t you just post about a whole pile of UFA that are effectively unofficially signed?

Harpers Hair

Yeah, I did.

Friedman doesn’t think Larsson is one of them.

leadfarmer

We will have to wait and see
no GM is stupid enough to publically admit they have someone signed

Harpers Hair

Holland’s news conference indicated pretty clearly this is not a done deal.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to Redbird62

 July 13, 2021 6:01 pm

You have no idea what they wanted.

He’s not stupid – he’s not going to indicate that pretty much have an agreement so close to the expansion draft.

Redbird62

More of the same would be a more apt description. There is nothing new in this article and no unique analysis either. Every UFA is in danger of being lost till they are actually signed. And there is also nothing new about you scouring the internet to find and post every article/opinion piece you can that reflects a negative light on the Oilers.

Harpers Hair

Adrian Dater (@adater) Tweeted:
Hearing LAK will be in on Suter if available on 28th. WASH too

https://twitter.com/adater/status/1415054044679180288?s=20

rogue

Maybe Holland was going to let Larsson walk,, or knew he was doing the FA thing. Now he pairs Bouchard with Keith. The money is essentially the same. Not what I would do but it could make sense.

Jethro Tull

Bouchard couldn’t beat Koekkoek or Jones out of the line up. The coach would rather have played Rusty on the right. Not sure he’s penciled in for 2nd pair with Kenny’s real time hockey card.

Redbird62

Bouchard was never really competing for Koekkoek’s or Jones’ spot. They both play left D. Bouchard was tried on the left in 1 game versus Toronto only after Koekkoek and Lagesson were both injured. He was played ahead of Russell on the left side for that game, but it didn’t go well and Russell was back in the next game. Not once while Bear was out with a concussion was Russell used on the right side ahead of Bouchard. Overall, Russell did not play a single game on the right side this season, as Barrie and Larsson played every game, and Bear dressed in every game that Bouchard did not.

rogue

Well I think Larssen is gone. It is the way to give him cap after acquiring Keith, along with buyouts.

OriginalPouzar

Bouchard wasn’t competing with Koekkoek or Jones – they play different positions.

I don’t think Russell played a single game on the right side – he played 19 minutes with Nurse all season long and nothing material with any other left d-men, basically just line change type of stuff.

This post doesn’t seem based in reality to me.

Redbird62

My guess would be the majority of those 19 minutes would be in the last few minutes of a game (when Larsson or Bear wasn’t out with Nurse or if they were both still on the ice at the end of a penalty kill where they were both out on the ice together. It would be hard to rack up 19 minutes just based on line changes, a good chunk of it would have to be deliberate.

Harpers Hair

Friedman saying the Parise buyout was to avoid a huge cap recapture penalty if he retired.

Also says the Suter buyout was an opportunity to turn team leadership over to younger players.

Harpers Hair

He also says many teams have handshake deals with their free agents that will be announced after the expansion draft.

Harpers Hair

Also says Seattle is in on Dougie Hamilton.

Eh Team

If Seattle wants Hamilton (and why wouldn’t they), they are in a position to outbid anyone. Given how weak the west is Seattle has a great shot at the playoffs.

Harpers Hair

Friedman thinking that Larssen might be waiting to test the market given the shortage of RD.

leadfarmer

Philip Larssen is a good guy for them

leadfarmer

Parise was done. That buyout had to happen
Suter was being carried by Spurgeon but I’m surprised they didn’t offset the buyouts by a year

Harpers Hair

Ripping off the band aid.

Guerin is very aggressive.

leadfarmer

Well having more than 1/6 of cap space in dead space for 4 years means that bandaid is very much stuck

jp

It’s more like the bandaid is holding the wound open for 4 years.

doctoreye

With the Keith trade the cap is 55mil less 850thou forJones,which is 4.5 mil,which is about the cap hit for Klefbom.With a Neal buyout,we still have enough cash to sign Hall and a goalie,or trade our 1 st draft pick for a goalie like Kuemper,or Merzlikins,and use that money for a Third center! There is still enough cash left to do this and still gn Larsen!

TheGreatBigMac

Absolutely as long as we buyout Neal, Holland said this was a definite option in his end of season availability. Hope that is still the case!

chrisco stu

Is anyone else wondering if instead of buying out Neal that he may be sent to LTIR? I’m not sure of all the implications but if they use off-season LTIR that should allow them to exceed the cap by ~11 million no? I’m not buying the Katz cash flow story either or I think Holland would have been pressured to include next years first rounder in order to get out from one of the bad contracts and save some cash that way.

Harpers Hair

Katz just got a huge check thanks to the Seattle expansion fee.

winchester

The thing that drove Mike Smith all year?

Was 1,000 trash posts against his age and performance. This year we’ll see.

James Neal – criticized then highly motivated driven to succeed comes out the gate flying.

Keith – most likely the same as he’s competitive by nature and he’s reading all the doubters. He’ll come out hard to start at least. But he might run out of gas as well.

Doesnt matter what Holland does, Connor and Leon will drag this team to at least a second place finish. All performances and decisions good or bad will be covered by “the result”.

Pretty sure Connor and Leon will get us to the dance. We need to just get a little bit better to win it, this is what’s frustrating.

It seems our org has no cagey moves to make with cap space advantage or expansion opportunity.

Fingers crossed.

Ryan

Okay, I’ve added in a CDN plugin to see if that would help this afternoon about 30 minutes ago.

The site isn’t running blazingly fast still.

but since I’ve added the CDN plugin, it’s not crashing for me.

Is it a little working better? + for yes and – for no

Harpers Hair

Much more stable and a bit faster.

tileguy

In and out lickety split on my iPad, although there seems to be a bad after taste today.

McSorley33

Thank you Ryan!

Jethro Tull

A Litmus test: Would Calgary or Vancouver trade us a legit prospect that has nearly 100 NHL games, and conditional 2nd rounder and full cap hit for Duncan Keith right now. In this instant? Heck, would Seattle? It’s close enough.

Durag

Surely we’d have to retain some salary. Are you aware that Keith’s cap hit is 5.5M??

Jethro Tull

Apparently not…..

winchester

Nope, they would not.

OmJo

Let’s not underestimate Jim Benning.

Harpers Hair

Bennington could have been in the Keith sweepstakes but wasn’t interested.

He needs a 2LD but he’ll get one for less than a $5.5 million cap hit.

Redbird62

After he gets rid of that ~$6 million per season elite puck moving Nate Schmidt.

leadfarmer

He was probably the one who offered more but was told To go away

Harpers Hair

Said publicly he wasn’t interested.

Jethro Tull

Lol, true, he has a little crazy in him.

dustrock

Friedman reporting part of the rationale for grabbing Keith was Holland talking to the Oilers players who said Keith was so hard to defend in the play-in series (which was August 2020).

Just incredible.

I bet that’s why they grabbed Koekkoek too.

Well, if pro sports is really about entertainment, they are certainly keeping us entertained!

TheGreatBigMac

“Are you not entertained?!” said Duncanus Keithamus shouting from the ice after his first playoff Oiler win.

JOFA

You forgot about “The Guide and Record book”. I’m certain there was a Commodore VIC-20 involved as well.

Jethro Tull

it was a Calico Vision and the Guiness Book of Records.

jp

The Guide and Record book

Can we not be dissing the Guide and Record Book?

Those things were (are?) awesome.

Last edited 3 months ago by jp
Gerta Rauss

Can we not be dissing the Guide and Record Book?

Well for God’s sake I hope you managed to rectify that a bit.”

“Oh yes, well I managed to transmit a new entry off to the editor. He had to trim it a bit, but it’s still an improvement.”

“And what does it say now?” asked Arthur.

“Mostly harmless,” admitted Ford with a slightly embarrassed cough.”

Last edited 3 months ago by Gerta Rauss
jp

lol. Fair.

PokeCheck

So when are we grabbing Kubalik? I recall him lighting us up like a Christmas tree.

Harpers Hair

You already got his younger brother Kahun.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

The presser yesterday was pure gold. Holland seemed so proud of himself and then so confused when DNB questioned the ‘brilliance’ of the trade. Woof.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

So if Keith retires after this season the cap hit is net good for the Oilers and DK only loses 1.something million in pocket money?

How much can you pay a defensive assistant coach or a head scout based out of Kelowna?

If that we’re the plan id be like kudos dudes.

McSorley33

3rd round pick & Caleb Jones for 180 days or so days of Keith.

There is value creation. Then there is Edmonton Oiler value creation.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

180 days…or a lifetime! He knows a little something about winning if that’s a concern.

The old boys club couldn’t rebuild the team, now the team must rebuild the obc.

kelvjn

If looking at the perspective you pay 5.5M in cap space this year(actual salary 2M) for one shot at advancing the playoff, and if you don’t like what you see you offer the guy 1.5M next year to be your assistant coach/ special advisor and recapture a bunch of cap space next year.

With CBH be on a big hole due to salary cap recapture in case Keith retires, the Oilers might be able to get “future considerations” to prevent this from happening.

OriginalPouzar

and opening up $3.5M of cap space in 2022/23.

Justthestatsman

That would be awesome. Even better if it happened just before the season started to really mess with Chicago’s cap situation.

Reja

Talk about grasping for straws.

Scungilli Slushy

Have a sec to listen to the interviews.

Spec asks Keith what he’ll bring, how’s his game etc.

Keith says I don’t like talking about it, we’ll see what I do on the ice at camp. Who’s a step behind.

I love this guy already.

GordieHoweHatTrick

This is a tangible upside. The guy is hard core pro and competitive.

dustrock

So was Andrew Ference. And Ference seems like a great guy too.

Primetime

Why does everyone keeping bringing up Ference as a comparable situation? Ference and Duncan Keith never have and never should be brought up in the same sentence…

Redbird62

This all day long. A sure fire hall of famer, who still payed over 23 minutes a night last season ahead of 2 other viable left D, versus a good journeyman defenseman who was a decent top 4 defenseman for a good chunk of his career and was never known for his skating.

Jethro Tull

Abstracts not really your strong point?

The situation is similar in that Ference was brought in to provide everything that Kenny said he’s bringing Keith in for. All those horrid clichés, which cause me pain to write, such as “knows how to win”, “good in the room”, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

The abstract would be that once again the management team have parsed the previous season and come out thinking it was these intangible qualities that were lacking. Not lack of skill, speed, hockey smarts, coaching, goal tending, prospect development, etc. You know, things that are measurable. Because you don’t put stock in those things and the guy who scrapes up the teeth from the ice is also your senior, and only, analyst.

I believe one of our most venerated posters here once posted (paraphrasing): If intangibles had any effect on the game, we’d be able to measure them, then they wouldn’t be intangible.

OmJo

But Keith is on another level compared to Ference, who turned out to be Eakins favourite pet and who’s “leadership” may have contributed to a divided locker room. Keith is much, much, much, much… much more accomplished than Ference.

And those overused cliches are universally used when teams acquire players. Sports press conferences and interviews are really nothing more than cliches being repeated ad nauseum by this point…

Woogie63

It is easy to measure stuff, but it is really hard to measure the exact right stuff at the right time.

What exactly are we measuring that tells the coach in real time which five players to put on the ice against the other team’s five player FOR THE NEXT Shift?

Jethro Tull

The first sentence is awesome, I couldn’t agree more. If the follow up sentence was “it also depends on the weight you give to what you are measuring and what they mean in conjunction with other measurable things, it would have been perfection.

I really do not understand your question. We tend to lean toward the math on this site. So I’m not sure what you are advocating for. We measure all kinds of things, an outlier would be don’t leave your fourth line and third pairing out against McDavid for any reason.

Woogie63

I guess my point is;

The math, that many on this site refer to, needs a large enough sample size to bring some level of predictability to the final number.

The coach however deals in a very small sample size – what is the next shift going to deliver.

Add in injuries, muscle recovery time, blood oxygen level and many other aspects of 12 athlete on the ice, next shift readiness is complex to get right.

For the large sample gang to poo poo in the small sample gang is missing the plot.

Jethro Tull

You seem to be having a different argument than the one I’m having, and against yourself. You’ve kind of rabbit holed here.

The coach does deal in real time date. But I’m guessing most coaches go into a game knowing exactly who to put against who and in what situations. Barring injury or penalties or the other team running your show.

Woogie63

I think your last two sentences under estimate the importance and how difficult in game management is.

For years I ran the soundboard at a local establishment. The musician have in ear monitors to help them hear the music on stage – each musician has a unique set up in their ear- this guys want to hear the lead singer, this guy want to hear the bass, this guy wants very little drums ect. The performers can’t hear the music the way the floor hears the music because the speaker push the sound away from the stage. The sound guy hears what the audience hears. He adjust the level of the instruments and vocal so the lead singer is heard above the backup vocals, the drums compliment and not over powers ect. Some nights the lead singer’s vocals are weaker, some nights the bass player’s fingers are sore, all this plays into the mix of the soundboard. There needs to be a high level of trust between the band members and the guy mixing all the piece of the band sound for the audience. Not once did I set all those dials and put my feet up, the performers need my help for the sum of the parts to be better….

Woogie63

imo to say this site leans towards the math is missing the fully glory of Lowetide. This site leans towards discussions that push our understanding of hockey.

Jethro Tull

And how does one demonstrate this understanding?

Woogie63

Do you connect with the entertainment you are watching?

Harpers Hair

There are teams tracking this in real time and relaying the data to the coaches on the bench.

It involves assessing how each player is performing as well as their shift length and recovery time.

Woogie63

Agreed, the amount of real time body data on in game athletes is a “game changer”. The teams that get this right will have a significant advantage over teams that can’t properly use the data.

Harpers Hair

Yep.

Coiler

If intangibles had any effect on the game… They would be measurable.

Players like Mark Messier, Kevin Garnett, and most recently Pat Maroon might disagree with you on that one.

Jethro Tull

So two of the greatest of all time in their respective sports and a guy who’s been really lucky? Ok then, seems a fair comparable.

Redbird62

Maybe you hadn’t heard. Duncan Keith is on the NHL list of 100 greatest players of all time: https://www.nhl.com/fans/nhl-centennial/100-greatest-nhl-players/

Harpers Hair

So is Newsy Lalonde.

Can Holland get him cheap?

Coiler

Apologies…I don’t think I explained myself. The point I was trying to make was that both Messier and Garnett brought intangibles to their teams that their own teammates have acknowledged as being some of the big reasons for their team’s success. Not through point production. But through their presence and voice and leadership.
I wouldn’t say Maroon has been lucky. Every one of his teammates have been singing his praises for what he’s brought on the ice and in the dressing room.

colieo_87

exactly intangibles should be the icing on the cake no the reason for trading for the guy. a measured approach not a pipe dream. you cant get what you don’t put in the middle. but the juice was too much for Kenny and he squeezed hard 🙁

godot10

Ference was a loudmouthed woke cowboy with a hat and no cattle, selling you fake meat and bugs for protein.

hunter1909

“with a hat and no cattle” lol

JimmyV1965

I love this

Jethro Tull

He needs to cut that BS out. He was brought here for his intangibles.

Melman

While everyone would like the Keith trade much better on a lower cap hit, perhaps folks can hold off sharpening the pitch forks until Kenny’s finished his work over the next few weeks. Does having Keith here further help in acquiring a Thornton/Spezza/Perry at or close to league min.? Maybe. Is Keith a better 2LD than Jones today? Yes. Go get a player equal to or better than Keith for a lower cap hit – if it were that easy it’s probably safe to say Holland would have done it.

MADOIL

Nobody is saying it is easy – GMing an NHL club is hard. That is why he gets the big bucks. We want him to do it right. Not sure he used all possible resources to arrive at the right decision. He fell in love with the possibility of trading for an HOF defenseman and catapulted because he was afraid Bowman will cancel the deal. Couldn’t this deal waited till the expansion draft lists were out so that we could trade for a less ‘used’ player?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Finish his work? You mean like overpaying with term a washed up free agent because the guy is willing to go to EDM? Or do you mean like trading away prospects/draft capital to improve the bottom 6 and third pairing?

tcho

i worried that this is Andrew Ference 2.0. I hope I’m wrong, and the proof pudding and all that.

Does this stop us from making other dumb moves?

MushedPeas

has it ever?

hunter1909

Conn Smyth winner isn’t anything like some 2nd pairing dude off of a good team like Boston, made captain by a snivelling coward of a new head coach lol

Reja

Keith isn’t a rat like goody two shoes Ference was for the goofball Eakins

Brewha Ha

This is what I heard Holland say on Oilers now: Blah blah blah, everything I told you before, blah blah blah, oh ya, we will not use buyout because Darryl is worried…blah blah.

That is what I heard…What did you hear? It’s at 12:35 pm.

https://globalnews.ca/pages/audio-vault-ched/?gref=630ched

Last edited 3 months ago by Brewha Ha
TheGreatBigMac

I listened and didn’t hear anything about not doing a buyout. At 15:45 of the audio, Ken was asked about a buyout just talked about the cost of D men in free agency.

Numenius

“The Duncan Keith trade signals Oilers management does not have a full understanding of the market at this time. That should be unsettling just a few days before free agency. Holland will need to deliver a handsome return with the cap room he has left.”

Very well said.

LMHF#1

I will again re-iterate that literally no matter how Duncan Keith plays, this was an awful trade.

He was worth effectively nothing due to his request and cap hit. Trading any asset of value for him is therefore negative. It really is this simple. That’s not emotional. It’s not people being over the top. It’s being logical and consistent.

I wanted the player and can still acknowledge that this is an awful trade that shows just how much of a clown the GM is. His ridiculous presser showed that even more. Only in a business like hockey would anyone respect or even tolerate someone who acts like such a baby in the face of even the weakest of questions.

Being willing to sit with so much dead money across your roster AND add more is insanity. An organized team could add Jack Eichel and Dougie Hamilton on a cap basis to the core of this roster. It really is that much money!!! Look at the players eating cap hit that will produce nothing or negative.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – hockey execs are not the smartest people out there to run this type of business. They get in and stay and are propped up despite abject stupidity. It is a damn sad joke. Even compared to most other professional sports.

It is a dirty shame what they’re doing to the legacy and careers of 97 and 29. Think of the seasons they could have put up already with competent accompaniment. Think of the championships.

A damn continuing shame.

Woogie63

Do you think if Bowman couldn’t work a trade that worked for CBH this summer, he would have had problem telling Keith he would have to stay in Chicago until a later date when a good deal for Chicago can be struck.

LMHF#1

The guy was going to one of two places. Whether Bowman waits or not.

If he won’t give you the player, you walk away. This isn’t complicated.

Hockey people seem to be fixaters to an amazing degree. The anti-Bellichek approach. Just stupid. Good stock traders don’t care what makes them money. Profitable retail businesses don’t care who buys their products. Profit-making restaurants don’t try to make a striploin out of ground
chuck. Use your resources and deliver. Simple but hard. Like everything competitive.

Woogie63

One of the two or three locations is he stays in Chicago – if Bowman decides he stay.

pts2pndr

Yes and all he has to do to sink that battleship is file his retirement papers. He loses very little and Chicago is on the hook for a whole whack of cap recapture penalty! As in7 to 9 million worth by what I have read.

dustrock

Trade for Athanasiou, a Guy Holland Knows? Willis says no, Holland says yes. Two 2nd round picks later, an obvious failure

Sign Kassian, who is starting in on his declining years, and was always most effective in a contract year? Give him 4 years, the guys love him in the room.

Sign Kyle Turris, who was healthy scratched by the Predators the previous season? Willis says no, Holland says yes, and by the way, let’s sign him for 2 years. An utter failure in every way.

Try to sign Markstrom to a super-long expensive contract, only to be outbid at the 11th hour by the Flames. Then decides to sign Smith, who by all logic is past his prime. Smith, defying Father Time, delivers a great season. Then Holland doubles down on Smith.

I’m agnostic on the Barrie move, I don’t think it hurt the team, though I think they could have spent the money on wingers and used Bouchard in the Barrie role, or even Bear on the PP.

Now spending assets and cap space on a declining 38 year old defenceman when we have to improve the roster, particularly at wing, and have to get extensions for Nurse, Jesse and Bear next year. With Keith counting at $5.5m against the cap and playing 3rd pair at that point.

Dac189

Barrie filled up the #1RD for 3.75m and lead defensemen in points coming in as a UFA. Helping McDavid and Nurse post career years.
I can’t see that as anything other than a win.

I also liked the Athanasiou trade but covid.

hunter1909

To be fair, it’s been like this for the past 20 years. Or even 30 years.

Post Messier trade this is the Cincinatti Bengals of hockey.

LMHF#1

Indeed. Save for one glorious season.

I wonder why Sather wasn’t able to train a successor or two…I know it doesn’t always happen, but still. Or maybe they were already gone.

But then any other team would have went well outside their sphere and gotten the right person. Not so in Mudville.

JOFA

100% correct. Horrendous no matter what Keith does. It will ALWAYS be a terrible trade. Pray for an early retirement.

#kennysnotagrinder

Elgin R

I like RNH at 3C, now if he can hit the weight room then meet with a skills coach and get his FO% above 50 that would be ideal.

So around $8m for the #1LW and #2LW. Would rather have Saad at $6m per to finally give the Captain a legit LW option not named Leon. I am not on the Tatar train (healthy scratched in the playoffs by two different teams) unless he wants to come on a $2.5m x 1 show me contract.

Benson has been on my protected list since the RNH signing moves the team to 7-3-1.
F: 97, 29, KY, JP, RNH, Benson, Open spot. Cap room is not the only ‘asset’ at Holland’s disposal. That open-protected spot has value but only until the lists are due. Use it wisely please.

jp

and get his FO% above 50 that would be ideal

He was over 50% in 19-20, FWIW.

Reja

Katz has more assessable cash than Jesus Christ.

OmJo

I mean… that’s not really saying much, lol

leadfarmer

Where are we at with expansion draft?
are we giving the Expansion team absolutely nothing of value again?

Dac189

Probably Kahun or Kassian
My money is on Kassian if he is left unprotected

Scungilli Slushy

Kassian will be appealing to them. I doubt there will be similar players available to them.

Of course he’ll only wake up when he plays the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

Kassian will almost assuredly be protected – I don’t agree with it but I don’t see him being exposed (I would love me some $3.2M X 3 worth of cap space).

Scungilli Slushy

Yup agree after Keith mentioned him.

leadfarmer

I think it will be Kassian too

OriginalPouzar

Depends on if you value Tyler Benson…….

Elgin R

For anyone else suffering from the ‘Data Base Connection’ error. It has worked a couple of times now where I went to the general Lowetide site first rather than try to connect from OilerHockey, then hit on the Supersition article.

MushedPeas

also, but it’s random even then

leadfarmer

Wild decide to buy out players instead of dealing with Seattle
As predicted Seattle will not be getting the Vegas treatment
Suter is a product of Spurgeon at this point but they could have made it work for at least one more year

Genjutsu

This is interesting, low actual dollars involved with the front loaded nature of both contracts. Cap floor looks easy to hit from here in the next few years.

I wonder if we start seeing more moves like this until the owners see more revenue come in and secure their losses.

Harpers Hair

Aaron Portzline reporting Seth Jones is willing to sign an extension with 4 teams after a trade….Chicago, Dallas, Colorado and Los Angeles.

leadfarmer

Get to overpay in assets so you can overpay his contract
Yeay!!!!!

Reja

I was told I was full of shit that the Hawks would bait Seth with Caleb. All I can say is we shall see we shall see.

leadfarmer

Chicago is a place players want to play

Reja

And having your one chance of playing and mentoring your little brother means jackshit. I’m glad your not my big brother

leadfarmer

No need to be an asshat about it, Asshat.
i have no idea what their relationship is like but lots of brothers have made it through this league and could have easily played on same team and never did. Other than the Sedin twins I can’t think of another sibling duo that made it a point to play together.

leadfarmer

And then what do you do when he gets exposed to waivers in fall? Demand a trade?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Jordan and Eric Staal.

Wayne and his brother played a little bit.

Weren’t there brothers on the dynasty NYI teams?

The Richards.

That’s about all that comes to mind.

Maybe some Sutters at some point.

The Howes in the WHA.

leadfarmer

And Eric moved on from Carolina and wanted to play in Minnesota were his brother was not.

https://thehockeywriters.com/brothers-in-the-nhl/

Bank Shot

I have read part of the reason Scott Niedermayer went to Anaheim was to play with brother Rob.

Oilerguy

Rob and Scott Neidermyer

pts2pndr

The Richards in Montreal among others

Scungilli Slushy

I think Chicago is a place where some players want to live.

I don’t like players that place too much into that. Great if you can be on a great team in a lifestyle city, there aren’t many with up arrows now. All down or horizontal. Except maybe the Avs, if Joe can outsmart the cap crunch coming his way.

Chicago isn’t winning jack in the next 5 years.

JimmyV1965

And I said this could easily be a trap. What if Caleb doesn’t make the team? How does Seth feel about that? Even worse, what if he should be sent down and they keep him to please Seth?

Reja

Didn’t Calgary bring in Hamilton’s brother to please him or was it deserved his being on the big club.

OriginalPouzar

Caleb Jones is very likely may not be protected by the Hawks in the expansion draft…. he may not be chosen by the Kraken but there is a decent change he’s not even a Hawk come July.

I don’t think the Hawks being on Seth’s list has anything to do with Caleb.

Reja

So why did the Hawks want a scrub like Caleb so badly every rumour on the Keith trade to Edmonton started with Caleb.

OriginalPouzar

Because he’s a decent young developing d-man that didn’t seem to in the Oilers’ plans and available.

From listening to Marek and Friedman, it seems they were asking for McLeod instead if the Oilers “forced” retention – not sure how acquiring McLeod over Caleb Jones helps “get” Seth Jones.

Reja

This is nothing more than lip service the proof is in the pudding. I’m interested in seeing how this shakes out.

OriginalPouzar

I’ll take the info of Marek and Friedman over your speculation vis-a-vis the brothers separated at birth theory.

Sierra

Wow, accessing and posting here has become a real exercise in patience.

Reja

It’s all Holland’s fault.

leadfarmer

I get a kick of people wanting Nick Leddy. He’s like a shittier Barrie right now who plays on a defensive power house

krakman

The general manager of an NHL team thinks negotiating hard is “unbecoming”
his main evaluation tool is the “record books”

And this mf’er makes 5 million a year!!

I’m in the wrong business

Reja

Even Sather lost his edge at the end and threw a bone of Talbot to his former team.

HenryDrix

So much negativity, wow…. After the R1 sweep by the Jets, the majority of readers seemed to feel that KH needs to “win now”. This trade is absolutely a “win now” trade. Now everyone is complaining. I get the argument of the cap $ being better spent elsewhere, but that depends on perspective. The past 2 playoffs have seen the Oilers choke, and choke badly. So tell me, how does this get addressed? Experience. Leadership. The Oilers have not had somebody with a winning pedigree the likes of Keith for a very long time. Winning is not just about stats and analytics. The Oilers are a very good regular season team but they ned help getting over the playoff bump, the increase in intensity, competitiveness etc. Keith will help with that, and also be a very good 2LD. I’m ecstatic and think his experience is exactly what we need. I agree with the Spector articles. Keith will make the entire team better in the playoffs, where it counts. Bank on it.

Oil2Oilers

We’re complaining, because it’s a “win in 2012” trade not because it is a “win now” trade. That and Experience. Leadership. were Ferrence an Lucic justifications that did not help also destroyed that credit at the bank.

HenryDrix

Lucic and Ference have no where near the Pedigree of Keith. (No offense). It’s not even close.

Sierra

38 year old Duncan Keith at $5.5M helps the Oilers win now?

HenryDrix

Absolutely. Pretty sure 97, 29, 93, 25 would all agree. Thats good enough for me. We know From Holland’s year end presser that he gets roster/team thoughts from 97.

Sierra

You have no idea what McDavid, Drai or any of them think about this so just stop.

Tell us what you like about Keith’s game over the past 2 seasons.

Tell us what stats you are using to form your opinion because many stats have be shown to support the exact opposite opinion.

OriginalPouzar

Sierra

 

You have no idea what McDavid, Drai or any of them think about this so just stop.

We know that Holland talked to his leadership group about what the team needs right after the season ended.

We know that Holland spoke to his leadership group and asked them about Keith.

We know that at least one “top player” said that Keith was very hard to play against in 2020 (per Friedman).

Reja

We are never going anywhere if Smith and Mikko are our Goaltenders

HenryDrix

I agree we do not have Stanley Cup winning caliber goaltending. But our defence is better that last year with this trade. Thats progress. With Larsson back in, a very solid top 4D. We saw with Montreal what a great top 4 D can do, and experience from guys like Perry and Staal. Experience cannot be discounted. Now buff the goaltending please!

Last edited 3 months ago by HenryDrix
Sierra

Are you sure the D is better than last year? Keith scores no where near what Barrier does. Is Keith better defensively, that much better defensively?

HenryDrix

Absolutely! We have guys to score. Barrie is not good defensively. Playoffs is about D and G. I think Bouchard will be 75% of Barrie at 20% of the price next season, and will soon (2-3 seasons) post better numbers than Barrie did last season.

hunter1909

There are so many more reasons than that!

Eh Team

This is true.

winchester

You have to grow leadership. You can’t buy it.

HenryDrix

Think Holland just did exactly that.

DBO

From puckopedia twitter

If Keith were to retire after the 21-22 season:
-#BlackHawks would have a $5.5M cap hit in 22-23 & a $2M cap hit 23-24
-#LetsGoOilers would lose his $5.5M actual cap hit in 22-23 & instead have a $3.4M negative cap hit (cap savings), for a swing of $8.9M

https://t.co/4dY4GmOSmh

John Chambers

Keith only makes a mil or so in 2022-23.

If he’s not playing at a top-flight level, perhaps he decides to retire and spend more time with his family.

For the Oilers they’ll owe raises to JP, Nurse, and Bear next summer. Perhaps the plan is to ride out big salaries for one more year before owning extreme cap advantages.

If that’s the other shoe then it’s an awfully cunning plan.

leadfarmer