Luca Munzenberger gave Oilers fans the only readily available scouting report on him draft night: “I’m a big defenceman, who plays hard, focuses on the defensive game. If there’s a possibility to join the rush, I’ll do it.”
Scouting director Tyler Wright said “he’s a big body guy, played at the World Juniors here during Christmas time. He’s in the University of Vermont right now working out and training there. We talked at length with the people at Vermont. We’re really excited. He’s a big body guy that plays a heavy game and now we’ve got to develop him.”
What else do we know?
THE ATHLETIC
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Zack Kassian could be an important part of the Oilers’ scoring
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to a massive 8-year contract extension
- Lowetide: How many goals will Jesse Puljujarvi score for the Oilers next season?
- Lowetide: 8 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers
- DNB: Rating the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ ideal defence pairings for 2021-22?
- Lowetide: The future may come early for three Oilers prospect defencemen
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason, 4.0
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021-22 depth chart
- Lowetide: Warren Foegele acquisition possible key to improving the Oilers third line
- DNB: Ethan Bear on being traded, his time with the Oilers
- DNB: Ethan Bear out, Cody Ceci in, Tyson Barrie stays
- DNB: ‘Ultimate competitor’ Zach Hyman signs with Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2021
- DNB: Oilers draft day notebook
- DNB: Oilers come under the microscope after passing on Jesper Wallstedt
- Jonathan Willis: Zach Hyman, by the numbers
- Lowetide: 5 players outside the NHL who could help the Oilers
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
WHAT ABOUT LUCA?
So, let’s piece this together. Munzenberger played for Germany at the World Juniors, and the event was held at Rogers Place in Edmonton. Ken Holland, Tyler Wright and a large portion of the amateur staff (North American scouts) would have had access to live viewings.
Munzenberger was listed as 6.02, 190, and he would have just turned 18. He is a LHD. Playing in five games for an undermanned Germany, he scored zero points and was 3-7 in even strength goals. Here are the game stories:
- December 25 versus Finland: Munzenberger played 23:14 with one shot on goal and a -1 in a 5-3 loss to the Finns. His TOI total ranked second among defensemen on the German squad. He was 1-2 in EV goals, all three coming in the second period.
- December 26 versus Canada: Munzenberger played 23:24 and was -4 in a 16-2 loss. He was 0-4 at even strength and second again in ice time. Defenseman Simon Gnyp was -9 in the game and led German blue in ice time (29:36). Germany appears to have played the tournament with five defenders.
- December 28 versus Slovakia: Munzenberger played 25:49 and finished even in a 4-3 win for Germany. His TOI was second again (always Gnyp) and he had two shots on goal. He wasn’t on the ice for a goal in this game.
- December 30 versus Switzerland: Munzenberger played 17:26 and finished even in a 5-4 win for Germany. His TOI was fourth among rearguards, he took a penalty, played just four minutes in each of the first and second periods, and then almost nine minutes in the third period. A weird split, he led Germany in minutes during the third period. He went 1-1 in goals, but it’s a strange boxscore. Germany was up 4-0 after two and won the game 5-4. That means four goals against Germany in the third period, Munzenberger was on the ice for 8:35 (almost half the period) and one goal against in the period. So, Germany allowed three goals in the 11:25 he was off the ice. Interesting. I wonder if he was hurt for a time in the first and or second period.
- January 2 versus Russia: Munzenberger played 18:24 and finished +1 in a 2-1 loss to Russia. His TOI was fourth and again he played less than six minutes in each of the first two periods and eight minutes in the third period. Had one shot on goal, was 1-0 on ice even strength goal differential.
One article quoted a scout at the WJ’s: “He was another guy who grew on me as the tournament went on. A little on the rugged side and he made that good first pass. He wasn’t on our radar prior to the tournament but he showed well and looks like a draft.” Germany finished 5-19 (20 percent) in even strength goals, placing Munzenberger’s 3-7 (30 percent) totals in a positive light. Germany scored 30 percent of the goals with Munzenberger on the ice, 14 percent without him on the ice at even strength. His shutdown reputation proves out in a small sample (World Juniors) and we’ll see about the season to come.
One final thing. Munzenberger is a big defenseman with good speed and shutdown ability. Since arriving in Edmonton as general manager, Ken Holland’s Oilers have drafted three defensemen. The two drafted inside the top 100 overall (Philip Broberg, Munzenberger) have size, speed and a defensive reputation. I expect we’re going to see a big, strong and mobile defense in Edmonton through the rest of the Holland era. Whether that’s a benefit or a fault (Ethan Bear’s exit was not a progressive move despite his lack of size) remains to be seen. There’s more than one way to build a successful team, the big units start arriving with Dmitri Samorukov and that happens likely sometime in 2021-22.
STUART SKINNER
The Oilers signed Stuart Skinner on the weekend, two-year and two-way deal. He isn’t eligible for waivers this season, so can be sent to Bakersfield without worry of losing him. I wrote about Skinner at The Athletic in the spring, and his strong 2020-21 season puts him on a more promising flight path than in the past. I don’t know that Skinner makes it as an NHL player, but do know the organization believes in him. That’s often a key element in making the NHL grade, after that there’s luck (good team in front of goalie) and staying healthy.
In many ways, evaluating goaltenders is very much like monitoring young pitchers trying to get a foothold in the majors. If they can stay healthy and the organization believes in them, chances are an NHL goalie comes out the other side. How good the goalie is, and how long his career, tends to be somewhat random as well. Skinner has the backing of the organization and he’s healthy. The net in Bakersfield is his, with Ilya Konovalov also in photo and holding his own solid resume that is in many ways more impressive (wildly consistent). It will be an interesting battle, expect Skinner sees some NHL time in 2021-22.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the air on TSN1260 will a big sports mountain to talk about from the weekend. Dan Ralph from the Canadian Press will join us to discuss Week One in the CFL and all the craziness from each of the four games. At 11, Jason Gregor from The Jason Gregor Show on TSN1260 will pop in at 11 to chat about the Elks game, the Jays, Olympics and are the Oilers done? 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
The last 3 players signed to league minimum contracts are Brendan Perlini, Olli Juolevi and Oliver Kylington. Huh.
3 x $4M for Carter Hart.
I’d have had a tough time giving multiple years to a guy who posted the worst SV% in the league. I mean, he’ll most likely recover, but his .877 was the worst SV% (>20 game) for a goalie in more than a decade.
My ONLY question…. is the only Dman who played more than him at the World Jr’s name (Gynp) pronounced “Nip” or “Gimp”???
It’ll be interesting to see the cap gymnastics that transpire to get Yamamoto signed and on the roster. This is where we see how well Bill Scott earns his money.
Who gets waived, Klef’s LTIR status (off-season or in-season) and what the final AAV on KY’s extension look like are all going to be noteworthy details.
On CapFriendly I’m at $361k cap space with Klefbom on IR, Perlini, Stalock and Turris waived. So it’s a bit of a balancing act (unless I’m missing something obvious).
I signed Yamamoto for 2 X $1.5M and Benson for 2 X $750K and have both of them on a 20 player day 1 roster including Klefbom with just over $10K of cap space.
Mikko waived and assigned (Stalock on roster)
Lagesson waived and assigned
Russell waived and assigned
McLeod assigned
Turris waived and assigned
Perlini waived and assigned.
Cap compliant on day 1, put Klef on LTIR and they have LTIR reserves of $4.1M less $10K and they can call up 4 players to fill a 23 man roster.
Russell won’t be waived.
He could be – its just a paper transaction for day 1 – he’d be called up the next day – unless the org thinks he’d be claimed.
Kassian is another option for the waive and paper transaction – same “risk”.
Bouchard could be assigned for the paper transaction as well but that wouldn’t get them under the cap unless Kailer is squeezed to closer to $1.2M on the re-sign.
I realize it would be a paper transaction (waived and recalled after Klefbom moved to LTIR) but if they never waived him when his cap hit was $4 million (not that the risk he’d be claimed was high), I believe they would not risk him being claimed at a $1.25 million cap hit. Despite what many posters on this site say about him, he helps prevent goals like no other Oiler defenseman has in the last 5 seasons, and better than most in the NHL. He has the 5th lowest GA/60 of any NHL defender over the last 3 seasons who has played over 1000 minutes (naturalstattrick only allows combining 3 seasons). And yes, while less happens offensively for the Oilers, he is generally keeping things close to even, even though he is not playing a lot with McDavid and/or Draisaitl (~49% overall goal share in those 3 seasons). Right now he is probably the 3rd Left D, and at worst will be the number 7 D on the team. They won’t use Russell to try and make the cap with Klefbom on the roster.
I agree. I honestly would waive kassian. Maybe he gets grabbed anf you free up 3 million for the next couple years or he doesn’t and you hope he’s worth 3 million for the next couple years.
I think the org values Kassian, with his current contract, as much as they value Russell, at his current contract.
They just opted to protect Kassian in the expansion draft, what logic tells you that they’ll waive him now?
They couldn’t waive Russell when he was making $4M because he had an NMC.
Your right, I forgot that, the last two years added the modified no trade but still had the NMC. So at $4 MM, if they could have, they very well might have risked it. I still don’t think they waive him now if he is going to be on the 23 man once the season starts.
Severalli reporting Kaprizov has a 1 year 8 figure deal with CSKA Moscow..
A devastating blow for Minnesota.
No, that is not the right information.
He has a tentative deal in place with CSKA if he can’t lock in a deal with the Wild – and the parties remain in communication.
What a wildly misleading post – implying that the player was locked in to to go to the KHL for this coming season. My goodness.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
7m
Update:Thread Hearing Kirill Kaprizov has a tentative agreement in place with CSKA Moscow on a one-year, 8-figure deal ($USD) to begin on Sept. 1 – should a new contract not materialize with #mnwild.
However, the Wild appear ready and willing to talk a medium-term length deal. [1/2]
Initial hang-up was MIN was only interested in a 7 or 8-year deal for the Calder Trophy winner. That’s not the case. Bunch of options in term.
But the Kaprizov camp contends there has been no offer made since April.
We’ll see where this goes, two sides remain in communication.
No. He wants a contract that will take him to free agency. Then he will get his one long big contract that will take him into declining years
I am of the opinion that few players bring enough to cover unhelpful attitudes or a lack of the type of desire that wins in the NHL. Or score enough to cover it.
Keep his rights, and when he gets 25% of his money from that league and comes sniffing around again get a first or a good player.
In my experience the self centred and or narcissistic harm groups. Especially when team coherence is key like team sports. It’s a form of mental unwellness. At it’s least.
I have no idea if he’s that deep into being a difficult person, but behaviour is the only thing others can assess.
Many people have no insight into their own minds and behaviour, those they deal with can only go on cumulative experience.
I’d cut bait on that situation.
Yeah…it’s a pretty brazen attempt at extortion by playing the Russia card.
Could blow up in his face.
Well he doesn’t want a 7-8 year contract and Guerin has refused anything shorter.
Theres plenty of reasons for players to want shorter contracts.
For some reason professional athletes treat Minneapolis like a banishment to Siberia when it’s actually a fantastic city
they should just buy him a place next to Moscow on the Hill which is a top notch place not far from the Xcel center
This 10 figure contract also seems pretty made up.
The KHL has a hard salary cap of apx US$13M and, given it starts soon, CSKA will be mostly full up. Slepyshev himself was about US$1M last season and I don’t imagine he’s less this season.
1 year does nothing but push free agency back 1 year. If he really wanted to scare them should have pretended to have a multi year contract in the Khl
Isn’t Minnesota the number one location for Somali immigrants & experiencing rapidly climbing crime rates?
What is this garbage comment?
Sad sad little man.
*group hug*
Seems like Germany is producing some quality hockey players these days. I’d keep an eye out for more down the line. Guy sounds like he could be something. It will be good to follow his progress.
All countries go through ebbs and flows of players having NHL quality.
Even top nations in a sport. Canada has had years where it produced few if any top level hockey players.
Germany is on a run, we’ll see if their amateur leagues are progressing and more Germans can play on the Oilers, or it’s a hot streak of special individuals.
Prior to Hecht, Sturm and Erhoff, there weren’t any German players that young Germans athletes could look up to and aspire to emulate. Those players went on to have one level of success in the NHL and that combined with Draisailtl’s dad’s hockey background gave Leon the impetus to go for the sport. Most athletic kids in Germany have been focused on soccer, but now having role models, more kids in Germany can realize that a professional career in hockey in the NHL. As well, back in 2014, the German Hockey Federation changing the countries development model which helped this current wave. If the popularity of the game continues to increase, Germany will continue to rise as a hockey power. They are an economically strong, sports loving country of 83 million people. I expect Leon’s success, the Olympic silver in 2018 and Stutzle’s high draft and rookie success can help turn hockey into a meaningful sport in Germany.
Lionel Messi in tears as he confirms he’s leaving Barcelona – and says he’s ‘so grateful for love people have shown’
“I promised Mess[i] I wouldn’t do this.”
Scouting director Tyler Wright said “he’s a big body guy, played at the World Juniors here during Christmas time. He’s in the University of Vermont right now working out and training there. We talked at length with the people at Vermont. We’re really excited. He’s a big body guy that plays a heavy game and now we’ve got to develop him.”
Hearing this on draft day is what made me really sit back and go, “why have we used the 3rd round pick that we so smartly picked up on this player?”. I really hope he succeeds, but I’m a bit baffled that we felt we had to grab him in the 3rd. Surely he’d still have been there in the 4th or later?
On the whole though I’ve still liked what Holland and Co. have been doing in the draft overall, so I don’t want to criticize too much. Munzenberger in the 3rd is the big eyebrow raising one for me. I appreciate the value in them having “had eyeballs on him” pre draft though, that’s big in the Covid times.
Wright seemed ecstatic to get him at 90. The “consensus lists” and third party aggregate rankings had very affect on this draft.
I understand what you are saying but the org identified this player as someone they wanted and made the selection at 90 to get the guy. I presume most orgs were watching the World Juniors fairly closely and perhaps other orgs were impressed as well. Who knows if he would have been there with the next pick and, frankly, the 90th is a crap shoot in a normal year, let alone this year.
Of course, if the player picked 91 goes on the Brayden Point the draft…..
I remotely recall a mention of him playing for Leon’s dads team or some such connection.
Yesterday, I claimed that Perlini cannot defend or score and questioned if he had a spot on the bottom 6. IMO, if a bottom 6 player cannot score, then they better be able to defend/PK.
IIRC, Lowetide breaks down P/60 like so: First line 2.00+, Second line 1.70+, Third/Fourth Line 1.50+.
Perlini has 46 games in the NHL as an above replacement level player. Granted, those 46 games were second level quality production. But they also involved significant pumping by Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome.
Last year, Perlini was 21, 9-7-16 in the Swiss League, a league in which Linus Omark and Mark Arcobello are top 10 scorers, giving him an NHLe of 29 points in 82 games played. Omark (49, 22-39-61) and Arcobello (52, 13-35-48) had NHLe’s of 48 and 36, respectively. Anyway, 29 points would have placed him 4th in F scoring last season.
So while yesterday I was saying he’ll probably be in the AHL this upcoming season, now I’m wondering if they might try him in a scoring role. Maybe something like…
Nugent-Hopkins, Perlini, Puljujarvi
for a third line?
McDavid, Hyman, Kassian
Draisaitl, Foegele, Yamamoto
Nugent-Hopkins, Perlini, Puljujarvi
Ryan, Benson, Archibald
Shore
Note I don’t want nor think Kassian should be 1RW. Just have a feeling that’ll be the case in Game 1 at least.
Woof, Kassian, Foegele, and Perlini all a big stretch for those line combinations. Kassian is 3/4 RW to start the season. I think he still has game but he’s got to show it. We’ve got decent centers in the bottom six so that should help a lot.
Also I don’t think we have enough established depth for RNH at 3C. Maybe if Holloway is in the lineup but even then it’s a stretch. At least one forward would have to step up and prove themselves at a top6 level.
Good for the Rangers getting Shesterkin signed. Will make next year a killer year for them though.
Even if they get dollar-out on a dollar-in for Eichel (I expect Georgiev and Strome to go as part of the package at the very least), they have some $9 million in Cap space for Zibanejad and Fox (the big names), and then Kravtsov and Kakko.
If they don’t bridge Fox they will have Cap issues comparable or worse than the Oilers next off-season.
Some speculation the Rangers will try and get MZ to waive his NMC.
I would think that would require getting a third team involved that MZ would find acceptable.
Looking even one season ahead and saying “there will be problems” just isn’t realistic in Cap World.
Teams get away from these problems. That’s cap reality. You’ll never be anywhere near good enough if you’re always attempting to leave room.
“Mean, physical brand of hockey. Throwback type of player. Bomb of a shot, 6’3.”
If Munzenberger turns out to be a LH Weber-lite, that would be guten. Might even play a minuscule role in Draisaitl resigning if Luca is on the team in 3-4 years.
I’m excited for the Skinner vs Konovalov battle in net this year.
Konovalov seems like a good bet, curious how he will handle the Reign’s of the AHL.
Skinner got peppered against Ottawa last year, but at the end of the night still pulled off the win.
If either takes a significant step forward development wise we may have a young, drafted goalie as a backup available next year. I just wish we could land a true #1 under the age of 30
I too am excited – really curious to see who pulls ahead.
Absolutely, assuming progression from one (or both) of these goalies, next year that player should be a legit NHL option – heck one may get games this year depending on what happens with the veteran 3G in October.
I certainly can’t count on it, and its probably less likely than likely, but, for all we know, one of Konovalov, Skinner or Rodrigue becomes a legit #1. Its not out of the question for any of these young pros.
I love me some Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) to assess goaltenders.
https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/06/20/evaluating-2021-nhl-goaltender-performances-with-goals-saved-above-expected/
Skinner only played that one game against Ottawa, and clearly shipped some goals. However, his GSAx was -1.36. Compared to Koskinen who was -10.37 GSAx on the season, and Smith was 7.22 GSAx. Hugely small sample size, but not a terrible result for his first NHL start. Of course extrapolate that out over a season’s worth of appearances (say 20 as a backup) and it doesn’t look that great, but it stands to reason he’d improve.
The big thing with Skinner is that he went back to the AHL and was remarkably solid. I think training with, and playing that one game against NHL calibre shooters (we can laugh at Ottawa all we want, but they were still able to find the net) gave him a push to level-up his play. Can he sustain that in the NHL if called upon to be the back-up? Uncertain, but he’s certainly shown some progress in the AHL.
Konovalov I have very high hopes for. If I was a betting man I’d place money on him pushing past Skinner by the end of the year.
Rodrigue shouldn’t be forgotten about either, hopefully he can put up some decent numbers in the ECHL and maybe spot in the AHL at some point.
I’ve posted about GSAx here several times in the past. It seems like such a good idea on the one hand, but varies wildly from year-to-year for most goalies. There’s only a few guys like Gibson in Anaheim that have put together positive years for multiple seasons.
If we are being honest, Skinner wasn’t very good in that game. He settled in a bit as the game went on but he seemed nervous and, overall, it wasn’t a great game.
At the same time, he clearly wasn’t NHL ready yet and he got a solid development season in at the AHL level along with great experience and knowledge at the NHL level.
I watched most of the games in the Bake and, for the most part, he was very very good – he has a penchant of losing his net a bit and can get scored on in bunches when he’s not on but he played well in most games.
As for Rodrigue, I keep saying he may have the highest ceiling of all three – I think he’s got the most raw skill and his last season in junior was excellent – he was the best goalie in the league after the World Juniors that year.
Jeff Gorton is still available…would he take some AGM/Director of Player Personnel role?
I would hire him as GM tomorrow
We all know Tampa’s great draft record at FW, getting great results late in the draft.
In GM Brisebois’s post draft interview, found here:
https://www.nhl.com/lightning/video/julien-brisebois-joins-the-show/t-277437434/c-8738727
he was talking about his 4th round pick this year, Duke. Brisebois says he’s the type of player we call a Bolt, our type of player. He was then asked to describe what that meant….
“Guys that are hungry for more, they want more all the time. They want to get better, they want to win more. That are really competitive and driven and ambitious people and are good people.
Those are the type of player/people we like to bring into our organization. We feel that, with our development program, once we can get those types of guys in, we are able to get the most out of them.”
I have intel that Luca lives on the second floor.
Ha!
On another note, curious about what the reaction in Sweden was to the women’s soccer gold medal game? Heartbreaker for the Swedes to lose as the soccer gods favoured Sinclair & co.
Yeah it was a tough way to lose. Most of the focus afterwards was on Caroline Seger, the captain, who in her 221st and final cap had a chance to win the game from the penalty spot but shot it over the bar. She was ofc devastated afterwards.
The media consensus was that the Swedes created more chances and should’ve won it within the 120 minutes but either way the team should be seen as heroes. A lot of respect for the Canadian team as well, I think most swedish fans were happy they lost to Canada and not the US. Pretty sick of losing to them and they’ve been pretty arrogant when winning, the Canadian team showed a lot of class in the winning moment which a lot of people picked up in a “if we’re going to lose to one team” kind of way.
Yes, Sweden like Canada has been close for a few years now. They did play better than us, but as happens in hockey at times, our keeper was better. I think we would have been ok losing to Sweden rather than the US as well.
How Sweden didn’t score on that one late chance will remain a mystery. I swear it was going in.
Thanks SP.
I heard they had a riot like the one in Vancouver it’ll take years for the Country to recover from this devastating loss.
Yes, an empty garbage can was allegedly kicked over in Malmo
Thanks that was very clever you made me spit out my drink.
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
Hearing Igor Shesterkin’s new deal with #NYR is 4 years, $22.666 million. AAV of $5.65 million.
That is the most money ever handed out – in AAV and total dollars – to an NHL goaltender on his second contract.
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1424809468697661446?s=20
Good to see the Rags just throwing money around
Still about $10 million in cap space left.
Enough for Eichel.
Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) Tweeted:
Without commenting on the complications in this particular move (like that big honkin’ NMC that MZ has), there’s a sense around NHL that an eventual Eichel trade will involve veteran players that BUF will turn around and trade again, not just picks/prospects.
https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1424783204804931594?s=20
Well yeah
there was no way they were not taking salary back
ya locking up franchise type goalie is a bad move
Well 4 years is not really locking him up now is it
I think you will see a lot of 4 year terms on new contracts.
Latest projections have the cap rising by $1 million in each of the next 3-4 seasons and then taking a big jump by about $10 million after that.
Yet not that many 4 year contracts were signed
The projection came out late last week.
GMs (the smart ones) and agents will adjust their thinking.
I mean, I’d take a #1 tendy for 4 years… I’d also love for Edmonton to have the appeal of New York and not have to go for 7 or 8 to secure talent
I remember him well,
From the Munzenberger intel.
Speaking of players that have some early success then fizzled out.
Devin Shore.
Shore had 33 points and 13 goals in his draft +4 season playing with a dog’s breakfast of different linemates which included Adam Cracknell, Lauri Korpikoski, and Patrick Sharp.
That year he had 1.49 points/60. The GF was humming along at 51.52 even though the shot share was a little below 50%. He was mostly below water on the shot metrics until then end of the season.
The next year, the goal share dropped to 32%.That year he played mostly with Mattias Janmark who finished the year -13, while Shore himself was -30.
Last year, Shore had a shiny 39.5% FF and a 34.6% GF.
Why did Holland sign him to a 2-year contract?
Recency bias plays a big role in his player evaluation. Watch the last game of the playoffs and you’ll know who Holland and Tippett value.
Nothing like showing some real good hustle and “playing with urgency” to hide being on the ice for 3 goals against in around 35 minutes of even strength ice time during the playoffs.
Bigger, older and more experienced?
https://theathletic.com/2757317/2021/08/09/win-or-lose-these-oilers-are-built-in-ken-hollands-image/?source=user_shared_article
Because Kenny is a grinder?
TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) Tweeted:
With Hockey Canada https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f1e8-1f1e6.svg naming its coaching staff for the #Beijing2022 men’s team today, take a look at the recent roster projections by @mike_p_johnson and @CraigJButton: https://t.co/LXr3igHaDo
#TSNHockey https://t.co/6Spag20X9X
https://twitter.com/TSNHockey/status/1424743413149323265?s=20
Nurse is 100% lock to make the team on that big international ice. Otherwise Button is whiffing… Gourde > Barzal? oh, Craig… you do know how to get folks a-tweeting
Johnson had Thomas Chabot instead of Nurse.
Yeah, thought the Gourde pick was very odd.
I’m totally shocked to see HH make a comment like this. Shocked I tell ya.
Chabot is legit. Nurse is legit.
Both should definitely be in the conversation.
I would think, right now, given Nurse was superior this past season, he’s pencilled in.
Play in the fall will be a large factor as well.
I’m not 100% positive the net in Bakersfield is owned by Skinner. He’s the incumbent but, in my opinion, an intriguing story will be which of Skinner and Konovalov “pulls ahead” during the course of this coming season.
I would think they are slatted to generally split the net but I could be way off.
I do agree that the org values Skinner quite a bit. I can’t say the same with Konovalov but I would hope they do.
I’m curious how Stalock factors in? At this point in time, I think he is necessary insurance for NHL roster… But I agree the Bakersfield net should be Skinner’s and Konovalov should get the chance to steal… Is Stalock a guy that gets claimed on waivers out of camp? What happens if he clears?
I think Stalock should be given every opportunity to battle with Mikko for that 1B spot at camp.
As I mentioned yesterday, if all things are equal between the two vis-a-vis stopping pucks, the job should go to Stalock, the better puck-handler – makes for an easier transition for the team when Smith isn’t playing. There is a small bit of cap savings with Mikko off the roster vs. Stalock.
Tippet talked about the 3 tenders and the battle a few weeks ago – we’ll see if it actually comes to fruition.
It is great depth to have Mikko or Stalock as 3G but not if they are cold as the north and haven’t played in 2 months – at the same time, neither should take a start away from the prospects in the Bake.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the 3rd tender.
Ya, either one taking games for Condors would not be ideal.
I know that the Munzenberger pick was off the board at 90 (and the pick at 90 will be a topic of discussion given it was the bonus pick for moving off the goalie) but I do like the description of his overall skillset (big, good mobility) and the fact that he seems to be improving in recent times.
I’m not sure if his description makes me think of Niemelainen or Kesselring but I do love the fact that he’s coming to North America and going the college route. I don’t know much about Vermont’s program but I generally like the NCAA as a development home for “longer term projects” – it gives a long signing window before rights are lost, there is lots of practice time and generally good to great facilities.
I look forward to tracking his progress.
LT, I commend you for your spiel on the show this morning regarding “the math”.
I think most (although not all) would agree that “the math”, the analytics and the numbers can, and generally does, provide important and helpful information that can help evaluate and guide decisions.
At the same time, like most discussions in sports, the math, the numbers, can be misrepresented and misevaluated and misinterpreted and can be dishonestly presented in a way that can propagate a narrative and an agenda.
It seems that, given how common an analytical and numbers-based approach to evaluation has become, there has been a recent movement from presenting the numbers and interpreting them straight up without bias to a presentation of the same with bias and towards a narrative.
Of course, there are many good “math people” out there that present without bias but they are no longer alone and it makes it tough for non-math people, like myself, to know what’s fair and what’s presented with bias.
I’ve never been a math guy, and I get annoyed with some of the analytics folk sometimes, for this exact reason. The old glass half empty / full comes to mind. The data presents 50%, and you could say that the glass played against the hardest competition thus the 50 represents a half full glass, or you can blame the glass for being poorly constructed and allowed half the liquid to spill, meaning it’s an empty 50%… but often it ignores what is in the glass in the first place, and who poured it, and the reason for pouring and the event it was poured at, etc…
But if another glass lost 90% of the liquid, poured by the same mgmt, at a similiar time which glass would you prefer.
The one that lost 50% of the Liquid or the one that lost 90%?
what kind of wine we talkin?
Container: glass – no discontinuities
Liquid: Guinness
Volume at start: 101% (accounting for foam projecting over the brim)
Volume later: 50% due to contents escaping down ones’ throat
Conclusion: Glass is half full as previous and future enjoyment must be accounted for.
now I want a pint of Guinness
The ol’ Al Gore has provided access to analytics data to fans in general – which is a good thing. To be truly useful, data should be presented with context thereby allowing the user (us) to determine what weight we would assign to it and how it we would interpret it.
Hockey analytics provides knowledge of what a player, or line, d-pairing or goalie has done in the past. Combine that information with the good old ‘eye-ball’ test and a projection can be made of future achievement.
I prefer when analytics are presented without being the basis for an opinion (Just the facts Ma’am, just the facts) and, again, are provided with context.
PS. I am a math guy and take umbrage to how some subsets are parsed from the body of information and presented as ‘facts’.
side note: Umbrage is a great word!
There’s a shift by shift of him on the YouTube from WJC, and the tidbit about his skating from Kornianos stands out to me. Skating in a straight line isn’t very nice to look at, BUT he covers serious space in the d-zone, which I credit to that wide stance and how he turns his hips out. He has a long reach and from his position is able to push off and shut plays down. Definitely a “high floor” type of pick, he will play pro (somewhere) for a long time.
Between 16-17 and 18-19 (3 years), Brendan Perlini scored 33 goals at 5v5, for a scoring rate of 0.85 G/60. There’s no guarantee he can re-discover how to play in the NHL, but he ranked 86th among forwards for goal scoring over those 3 years (min 1000 minutes).
Nice low risk, high reward signing.
Perlini is the type of player I used to get really excited about back in the Jesse Joensuu days.
Hopefully we have found a hidden gem. It’s a curious situation for a first round draft pick to have size and decent speed score 14 and 17 goals in his draft +3 and +4 seasons, then sort of disappear before age 25. His last year in the NHL didn’t look promising, but rebuilding teams have that ability to end NHL careers as we all know.
He played a lot with Chirstoffer Ehn (who dat?) who also fell out of the NHL along with the ghost of Frans Nielsen, during his last year in the NHL.
https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/playerOverview/1920/DET/perlibr96/wrap
Perlini is the sort of player, if he were a family member of mine, I’d tell him to beg the coach to put him on a PK unit.
I guess there are these guys like Aberg and Perlini that aren’t quite good enough for a top six role, but see themselves as top six players, then they don’t PK, grind, defend, or forecheck hard enough to fit in the bottom six.
Everyone once in a while, they find a top six spot on a rebuilding team, and convince themselves they should be playing top six in the NHL.
Sort of like Ryan Jones in the DoD? Except Jones also fights in the face puncher era.
Yes the age old thing. Dominant junior player, doesn’t have enough for NHL top 6, won’t adapt to the new reality.
At his age time enough hopefully has gone by now that he is ready to grow, and Kenny gave it to him straight. 200 feet or you’re on your way out.
Better to be an NHL player of whatever ilk, or not at all?
Not everyone gets to be Patrik Laine, but a lot of guys aspire to that role.
Float around the rink and snipe 30 goals plus per season.
To play like that and stay in the league, you’ve got to net those 30 plus goals.
Yes, every season. Like Ovi who is a world class floater, but also being a giant and vicious has that head hunter aspect. And pops 50.
I think what’s exciting about now, is the Oilers aren’t counting on Perlini. If he turns out to be anything more than a callup candidate then the Oilers win … whereas risk bets used to represent significant “hope” deals —> *Belov*
Excellent point. This isn’t a Ty Rattie who was penciled in on the 1st line.
Great point, and I agree. He comes to camp, as what, 16F on the depth chart and behind the following on the LW depth chart (who are behind Nuge, Hyman, Foegele):
Shore
Benson
Holloway
If he outplays any (or all) of the above 3 and makes the team, well, wow, the Oilers have incredible depth.
Big, strong and mobile with good first passes seems like a good thing when describing dmen.
I’m not sure I understand what you mean by “Ethan Bear’s exit was not a progressive move”. I guess it is the descriptive “progressive” that confuses me. Do you mean it wasn’t an analytic type move or that it doesn’t help the team progress or something else?
Thanks.
I’m a bear fan, but we’ll see his true value on the Canes. Don’t get me wrong, it could turn out that he’s quite valuable there. And I have also watched other management regimes here flush the young D too early only to see them flourish in other locations.
But the opposite can also be true, where we fall in love with our young players so much that we won’t part with them because we think they’re better than they are. And it has cost us opportunities to improve the team. All the best to Bear, but we need what Foegele brings to the table, quite desperately in fact. You have to trade from areas of depth to improve the areas of need.
Right or wrong, Holland is at least attempting to improve the team. They brought him in to do exactly what he’s doing this summer. If that is not what they wanted, they would have brought back Steve “Mr. Dithers” Tambellini to sit on his hands and do nothing. Holland is bringing the bold that MacTavish promised, only Holland is the most experienced and decorated GM not currently employed in Long Island. Who are we to second-guess things?
Sad to see Bear go, but nice to see an actual hockey trade. Both teams may have a positive outcome wrt this trade both short-term and long-term, only time will tell. Did not see this coming as I thought it would be a LD going out not a RD. However, on paper Holland has improved the team compared to last year. Now it is up to the coaches and players.
We will see how he does having to do all the heavy lifting for Deangelo
I think that trade has a great chance to work out for both guys. Each player is going to be slotted into their new lineup appropriately. Bear will go and play the second pairing with some PK work. Foegele can start on the 3rd line, and maybe slot up if he deserves it. Bear isn’t being asked to replace Hamilton, and Foegele isn’t being asked to ignite Connor or Leon.
Neither player – barring injury – is going to be asked to deliver more than what they are capable of, but both have ample opportunity to grow with their new teams. I really like the trade from both sides.
Question for the crowd: What does a successful season in Carolina look like for Bear? And what kind of season does Foegele need to match that?
For Bear I would say 20 minutes TOI.
For Foegele it depends on deployment but if he is on the third line as most expect he needs around 15 minutes TOI and 15 goals while dragging the line above 45% in goal differential.
Weird that you had a downvote there defmn. I’m with you, Foegele scoring 15, keeping the opposition honest, being close to 50% goal differential, helping the team stay in the top 10 in the league for PK. That’s a successful season.
Bear in the range of 18-20 mins a night and doing well in possession stats, posting the odd crooked number. That would be a success for Carolina. I hope Bear does well there! No more concussions please, I want him to have a long career.
I think we are all in the same general ballpark.
Bear will be playing 20+ TOI with Brind’Amour sheltering DeAngelo to start the season.
With the quality of projected players on the 3rd line, I would think that they (and that includes Foegele) will saw off or better. I cannot imaging what the team goal-differential would be in the 3rd and 4th lines don’t get caved.
For Foegele, if he can help drive a 3rd line that is 50% in goals for, or at least very close to it, that is a big win. Would love to see him make an impact on the PK, and in 5v5, set the tempo with a physically imposing forecheck. Get Connor and Leon at-bats in the Ozone on a consistent basis by pinning the opposition in their end, and if not getting a shot on net, at least getting a puck freeze or an icing.
For Bear, I’m sure Carolina would be happy with 18-20 minutes a night of 50% possession hockey. He is a nice puck-mover so I am sure his forward group will appreciate his slick, last-minute tape-to-tape passes. I think they’d like to see him win a few more battles along the boards in his own end, and chip in 4-5 goals and another 15 or so assists – similar to his standout rookie season.
I’m curious to see how Carolina constructs their D pairs.
Last year RD Pesce played with Skej on the second pair while RD Hamilton played with Slavin.
Do they like Pesce and Skej together? Do they want an offensive option with the great Slavin and go with DeAngelo? Will the two best, Slavin and Pesce (imo), play together? It will be interesting to watch where Bear slots in.
Gregor had a ‘Canes analyst on a week or 2 ago, and after Gregs suggested Bear would start on the third pair, the analyst resisted a bit and instead liked the idea of Bear on pairing 2 with Skej. He saw Bear as more of a number 4. I agree, this will be very interesting to track next year.
Holland doesn’t seem to know how to do a win win deal and also get some value for his side.
Still I like every player he has chosen. Not perfect, but no obvious flaws that many could see and knew it was never going to work overall, like 80 million times before.
I also like the big fast thing. Those tools allow a player to still have an effect on the game even if they are slumping or whatever, if they choose to use the tools.
I feel for the smaller not fast types, when they are cold they can do little else that is noticeable typically, and the doghouse door opens faster.
Agree, 100%. The org (and Holland) did not “give up on Bear” and didn’t trade him due to any “circumstances” – this was a hockey trade where the org got a very good player, with upside, back – a player at a position of need.
Was the price too steep? I don’t know, maybe. I could see both Foegele and Bear helping their respective teams in the next few years.
I can see Bear having the “better career” but I can also see Foegele having the “better” career – if he continues on the Blake Coleman path, which he very well may, that’s a win for the Oiler most likely.
The Hair Piece 2 (Notes From a Quarantine Hotel) – The Hair Style
1. On a Good Hair Day H’s style is crisp; insightful; well informed, not a hair out of place. A pleasure to read. (You might say “Fine Hair”.)
2. Bad Hair Days are, unfortunately, far more common and, I think it is fair to say, the style is too often arrogant, sarcastic, abrasive, and condescending. (You might say “Coarse Hair”. You might also say “obnoxious”.)
-To Ryan – “Highly likely you don’t have several friends.”
-To Defmn – “This is nonsense.”
-To … errh … forgot – “Even if your feverish dreams were come to pass …”. “Anyone approaching average intelligence …”
-To Flyfish1168: “Pro tip: Young players get better. Old players don’t.”
-To jp: I honestly don’t care even a little bit what you believe. I’ll see if he’ll (Dhaliwal) write you a personal note. I’m sure it’ll be right on top of his to do list.
-OP especially, seems to be in H’s cross hairs, which is unfair – he seems a gentle soul who would not harm a hair on anyone’s head: – “Do you have inside information or are you just #toobin? / Perhaps you should think these things through. / (This) tells me everything I need to know about the player and you; / you will no doubt go on and on…”/ “Man, you can be obtuse.”
Many posters do not turn a hair to this appalling Hair Style which is everything that LoweTide should not be. Others, unfortunately (albeit understandably), tear their hair out. What is needed is a Transplant – see Part 4.
To be continued.
To come: Part 3 – Harper’s Bizarre; Part 4 – Let The Sunshine In (from the musical Hair, if you were wondering).
Gimme a head with hair
Long, beautiful hair
Shining, gleaming
Streaming, flaxen, waxen
This is nonsense. You are living in a walled garden. Good grief. In other news, the Canucks 5th round draft pick from 2014 is a top 4 defenseman…for Florida, and will compete for the Norris.
Well played, sir!
Happy for Skinner !! Just keep progressing and maybe he can be an everyday NHL option.
Skinner has gotteb better and better at every level … so why not at the NHL Level?
Yup – no sure thing but he remains a “real prospect” – same with both Konovalov and Rodrigue (who may have the highest ceiling based on raw talent).
Numerous very good NHL tenders were at similar stages of development at similar ages.