General manager Ken Holland and coach Jay Woodcroft held media avails yesterday, there were some interesting tidbits here and there but “vague” hovered over the verbal like a moth to a flame.
The Oilers would like to sign Evander Kane, need to find some extra coin, aren’t sure about Mike Smith but are certain goaltending needs to be addressed. They like the kids, and it’s going to be an interesting summer.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Young Oilers players poised for bigger roles after playoff run
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
- Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
- Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
WHAT WILL HOLLAND DO?
History tells us Holland prefers to do business in free agency, and the organization is going to find cap room leading up to the draft. The team needs a goalie, doesn’t overspend on that area, and may not have enough to sign all three target RFA’s. Here’s what it might look like.
This is a roster designed to get the Oilers to the deadline, where a trade for a goaltender may be necessary. There’s some good recall depth on defense, and one of the young offensive wingers could take off in Bakersfield, but the four lines have reasonable balance and I like the frugal additions on defense.
- G Mike Smith retires.
- RHD Tyson Barrie is traded to the Seattle Kraken for Toronto’s second-round selection.
- LW Warren Foegele, LHD Dmitri Samorukov and 2023 second-round pick traded to Minnesota for LHD Jacob Middleton and LW Tyson Jost
- G Braden Holtby, LW Mason Marchmant and RW Dominik Simon all signed as free agents.
- LHD Philip Broberg, LW Dylan Holloway and G Stuart Skinner are rookies.
A CONVERSATION
- Ken Holland and Jay Woodcroft have a lot of work to do. So true, there’s much improvement required on the roster. That said, the template is now laid out.
- Yeah, sign Evander Kane and get an elite goalie. Easy! I don’t think Kane will sign in Edmonton, a team out there will offer a longer deal. I don’t blame the player, he is on the verge of real free agency while still in something close to his prime. The opportunity to cash in here is incredible.
- Is there any way to sign Kane? Sure. Trade Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Darnell Nurse. I don’t believe Holland will do either.
- No other way? Well, he could sign Yamamoto long term (say six years) and get a reasonable cap number ($2.5 million), trade Jesse Puljujarvi and move Hyman over.
- What would that look like? Here it is.
- Explain yourself. Using Kevin Weekes quotes (“starts with a 7”), I riffed a deal for Kane that extends him six years. I don’t know if that’s going to be enough, and it could be too much, but we know Holland is aggressive once he makes a decision on pursuit. Mike Smith retired, Tyson Barrie was traded to Seattle for Morgan Geekie, Warren Foegele to LAK for Alex Turcotte, Jesse Puljujarvi for Nils Hoglander. Zack Kassian gets bought out. There’s not quite $1 million in cap room, since Edmonton is LTIR maybe they recall Seth Griffith to run it close to the cap.
- It’s a mess! Well, you’re adding another big contract, so there are NINE contracts under $1 million (although several entries could exceed $1 million) and those players have to deployed every night. I think Holland is better off moving away from Kane, or trading Nuge, than doing it this way.
- The day is ruined! Well, there’s plenty of work to do. I used Marchmant as the replacement for Kane, but he could sign Valeri Nichushkin or Nick Paul to play that role.
- What’s your solution? As I mentioned in my article for The Athletic, Edmonton needs the pipeline to produce. If Benson and Marody, along with say Raphael Lavoie, were ready to contribute, the Oilers could run young and inexpensive internally. If that were the case, sending away Barrie, buying out Kassian, Smith’s retirement and perhaps a Foegele trade gets it done.
- Woodcroft hates Benson. No one hates anyone, but you need a roster of players who can perform the duties required.
- So, you’ve moved on from these prospects? Well, the Oilers appear to have made the call on several prospects in the last year or so, and they’ll have to find their way. If one or more lands in the NHL over the next few years, then we can fairly criticize the Oilers for missing.
- What are the prospect’s names? Edmonton could have signed, or have moved on from, or appear to be moving on from: Benson, Cooper Marody, Filip Berglund, Aapeli Rasanen, Ostap Safin, Patrik Siikanen, Ilya Konovalov and Matej Blumel.
- Which one should I make note of? Blumel. I’ve always guessed the Oilers made a clerical error on his signing date, missed it and lost a solid prospect. One shouldn’t overreact, but that’s not good.
- Maybe Blumel just wanted to wait a year? I don’t think there’s a reasonable argument against signing Blumel, and it’s extremely rare for an NHL player to turn down a contract. Unless there’s a hidden reason, and we should allow for that, then I do think the deadline missed is the most reasonable conclusion.
- Do you like this team? Yes. I don’t think signing Kane at anything close to $7 million is doable.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running with Oilers, CFL and NFL stories, plus breaking news (and there will be some today, NHL teams are getting business done. We’re going to have loud noises out of the Oilers offices soon, beginning with the Jay Woodcroft signing. We’ve got you covered 10-2 everyday, TSN1260. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
NEW for The Athletic: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
https://theathletic.com/3355865/2022/06/10/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-trade/
If Kane wins his arbitration case and has his contract reinstated (which IMO seems like the most likely outcome, as the reason for terminating his contract was very flimsy) … SJS basically has to trade him; there are simply too many burned bridges on both sides. But Kane has a NMC attached to that contract where he gets to name 3 teams that he would be willing to be traded to. So he names Edmonton and two other teams who would have zero interest adding him to their locker room and/or no ability to absorb his cap hit.
Tell me that the following isn’t somewhat plausible: Kane for Kassian and Klefbom.
Kassian’s deal is done in a year, and they can probably eat some salary and flip him at the deadline for a pick. Klefbom goes to LTIR … the rebuilding Sharks are not going to spend to the cap next year anyways … and then is off the books. Sharks get out from Kane’s deal and get him off their roster … which by their previous actions is their number one priority … and do so by facilitating the cap dumps that Edmonton needs to absorb Kane’s contract, which runs for 3 more years.
Maybe Oilers need to send a sweetener in the way of a pick or B-level prospect (Lavoie, Samuroukov) at most.
Kassian’s deal goes 2 more years. Interesting idea though.
How much the Oilers are/were willing to pay Kane on a 3 year deal is key. If that number is $6M or $7M then this makes sense from their POV for sure.
Sharks would be getting out from under more than half of Kane’s contract, so maybe it works for them too.
Oops – I keep forgetting how bad that Kassian contract is. We would definitely have to add a sweetener.
I don’t think definitely. Kassian is negative value at $3.2M, but he’s not valueless.
I think Klefbom would almost be more of an issue for SJ since his contract reportedly isn’t insured, and they’d be paying his full salary without even filling a roster spot.
Aren’t we expecting, or at least hoping, that the returns for any trades are draft picks? Isn’t the point to acquire cap space? I’m not saying there will be no hockey trades. But somebody, probably more than one, has to go with little in salary coming back, no?
This is a stellar group of UFA wingers and they can’t all get paid. If Kane can’t be had, a value deal should be possible. Or you pull the guy you want out early, while everyone is waiting for the shoes to drop on Gaudreau, Kane and Giroux (I’m assuming Malkin re-signs in Pitt). I think you can get a better player here, if you can make the cap space, than you can by trade.
And to get in the game for Kane, you have to make the trades to create the space early before someone can bend you over on a cap-forced move. While this sometimes can be risky, due to the loss of personnel, in this case it opens up a host of Plan Bs.
Sounds like Barrie’s not in the plans. You send him to NYI or somewhere that will give you a 1st rounder for him. Whether this year’s or next, you get that done the week before the draft. Then you see if you can find a home for Foegele too and perhaps you’re less picky on the pick. You’re waiting till after the draft here because that’s when picks are worth the least compared to players other than the TD. So maybe you talk to Seattle, who has a ton, and match their surplus to your need for cap space. He’ll be worth more than what you get, but not more than the player you’re signing in lieu.
If those two contracts are out the door by the time FA starts, the Oil will be set up well to play. While FA frenzy is ongoing and teams are setting their rosters, you make a deal sending Kass out for a prospect. Get your winger signed, look for a goalie, sign two good, fast, hard players to the 4th line. Cogs, if he is available. Sign Yams to a 5 x 3M. Pujo 1 x 2.5M but depending on Kane, if you can give a little more and get some term, do it..
That’s the way I’d go about it, but GMs are more risk-averse than those of us with no skin in the game lol. And the deal-io with Smith and his thoughts for the future are key and can affect all of the above. It sounds maybe like he wants to back someone up, but I don’t think the Oil can make that work with either the cap or Skinner coming.
You can bury almost half his salary in the minors, and if you promise him he’s going to be working n Bako after next season’s over, maybe he’s willing to relocate. Barring that there’s always LTIR or waivers, injuries to other teams. I don’t see his cap hit as insurmountable. It’s the replacement that’s the problem.
If he’s out, than someone like Holtby is coming in and we’d better hope the number starts with a three if we want Kane. Maybe he would take 3 X 3.5 or something to play on essentially his hometown team and a contender? I can see why LT is including him in his proposals, there does seem to be a natural match there. He has pretty good stats though and pedigree. I’m not sure how cheap he truly comes. Like everything else depends on the demand out there. He must be on the Oil tanker sonar radar though. (It would also likely mean no Kulak or Pujo.)
How far would we have made it with a steady eddy goalie like Reimer? I’m glad Mikko’s gone he leaked goals in bunches on to many occasions. Smith is done as well he couldn’t handle the Playoff pace every shot he was having troubles seeing them. I never seen a Goalie play that deep in his net, I learned in peewee hockey if I challenge the shooter I take away options maybe leave a little room on the glove side to bait him to shoot there. Playing net is not rocket science but man why play so deep it just doesn’t make any sense to me.
Pretty bad how the cap has been mismanaged.
Lots of people here said no on Keith, Barrie, Kassian, and Foegele.
Looks like one or all may cost Yamo or JP. Big woof.
Holland doesn’t have to be Dustin Hoffman in Rain man to just plan a few years ahead.
Oilers dead cap space: $4.2 million plus Kassian plus Keith plus Barrie plus Foegele.
Avalanche dead cap space: ZERO and not one bad contract on the books.
Why has nobody mentioned this before?
Sir, it is an honour to share in this sea of red with you.
People downvoting this either have tiny brains or really big ones with no folds.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Colorado also has $27 million in free cap space heading into the offseason.
They also have a surplus of elite modern defensemen and will likely move one to free up another $5 million in cap space.
This must be unpossible.
The Av’s still haven’t won shit.
Tell us more about OEL and the Canucks.
Did you come up with another contradictory stance since this afternoon?
Kadri is going to require at least 8 million. Lehkonen, Nichushkin and Burakowski at least 4 million each. Kuemper (or his replacement) 6 million. Manson another 4-5 million.
Poof! There goes their 27 million. And
even if they move Girard, they still have to replace him.
MacK is due a raise next season … he’s going to eat up the entire 6 million paid out to Eric Johnson.
Avs are coming back down to Earth next season, with much in the way of prospects or picks to patch up the holes.
I said it last thread; I’ll say it this thread.
I don’t think the stupid voting mechanism facilitates healthy conversations.
If someone disagrees with a comment, I’d much rather just hear why, like normal human beings talking to each other.
I don’t understand what the up/down voting does that wouldn’t already be obvious. It just makes people who get downvoted feel bad. Why is this a good thing?
The down votes are there so that enough down votes deletes the post. It was a result of constant bickering, and frankly I love it.
More power to you, then. It’s your show and god knows you seem to have had trouble finding a reasonable medium with the comments section and dealing with drains on your time in moderating it in the past couple of years. I don’t personally think the kind of smart, engaged, commentary that used to be here is possible with this system. Oh well. I miss even the most recent golden age of guys like GMoney and WoodGuy etc. Doesn’t seem like that long ago. Doesn’t seem like there’ll be anything similar again. The site just feels much harsher and a whole lot less interesting.
The comments section is what people make it. I also have a dandy one week timeout plan for those who are abusive, that’s wildly unpopular.
As for G and Woodguy, brilliant folks who have found their way to other places online and they can be found there. Both are twitter users, both have great blogs AND Puck IQ is a result of their brilliance. Just because they don’t post here doesn’t mean they aren’t available to you. Both men of high character, I recommend grabbing a twitter account and following them.
[Too late to edit, but to add:] Maybe the world is much harsher and less interesting, I dunno. This wasn’t intended as criticism of you. You’ve had the patience of a saint with this comments section, and you’ve been an absolute beacon of light in Oilersland. I’m grateful for everything you’ve done.
I didn’t mean my response as a shot either, honestly. I’ve run the blog since 2003, and honestly there’s an ebb and flow to the comments section. Currently we’re lost in the supermarket a little, and that’s mostly because the excitement over the new metrics that drove this blog 15 years ago are now established. Puck IQ is a fabulous addition to what we knew a decade ago, and there are some outstanding people who post here with good ideas and discussions, but no one is inventing things on public forums. Just a series of “my bible is better” and that makes for limited creativity. jmo.
— I hadn’t realized it’s almost 20 years since you started blogging! Who was the first person to respond to your blog in the comments section and can you recall how they felt? Not to conflate but I can recall the first time you responded to one of my posts!
It was probably speeds, but the first three years were lost due to operator error.
The first comment I still have is from June 19, 2007, regarding a post of mine that said “The firesale in Nashville started today with the Preds sending Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen to the Flyers for the first round pick sent away for Peter Forsberg.” I wondered why the Oilers weren’t as aggressive.
Jesse said: “I think you’re being a bit too pessimistic, Lowetide. Sure, chances are the Oilers can’t turn things around in one year, but I think they’re closer than you give them credit for.”
I wish Jesse had been right.
— Lol! Thanks for sharing. Decade of darkness: aka “Jesse’s Curse”!
I never knew that! What is the magic number?
I’d rather just give Kane that contract he wants than trade for Josh Anderson. Even if he came free
If it’s criminally stupid, you know this brain trust will entertain it.
It would be akin to adding another Lucic contract….
He’s one of my favourite players, man oh man can he ever fly. I bet he would get 40 plus playing with Leon and Connor.
https://www.is.fi/nhl/art-2000008876359.html
Finish report that Jesse’s shoulder needs surgery.
The referenced recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks lines up with what Holland told us yesterday.
Though Holland said he didn’t think anyone needed surgery (and you’d think the timeline would also change if the injury and need for surgery was revised).
You are right, he did say that. Good point.
At the same time, that was the initial thought but, remember, he said that pictures were being taken and they’d know more after.
He did say pictures were being taken, but I *thought* he also specified 4-6 weeks for Puljujarvi in his availability (I could be mistaken).
Seems unlikely the 4-6 weeks would remain unchanged if surgery was unexpectedly added to the equation.
Anyway, just trying to parse what was said. We’ll hear more official reports soon enough presumably.
I am amazed at how badly Holland has mismanaged the cap. Truly baffling. 5 million a year and he probably doesn’t have an excel spreadsheet tabulating salaries 3 years into the future.
Why would Holland need an Excel spreadsheet when he can just open up CapFriendly?
The difference with the Bolts isn’t the players
Outside of Hedman
Its their team play
Everyone committed to a good stick
Everyone playing aware
Everyone aware of where to put the puck
Everyone attacking when they get a chance
Sorry all. Nuge can’t do what these teams are doing. He can’t handle it by speed or strength
So money
Summarizing!
The Cats will have to wait for another day to clinch the series, as they were Munson’ed to the tune of 7-0 tonight. The Bourg had as quiet a night as one can have, as he was not even credited with a SOG. (I will leave the analyzing to someone else, as I was unable to watch the game.)
Shawinigan still leads the series 3-1 with Game 5 in Charlottetown on Saturday.
I like to listen to LT and Jamo and Gregor when I can
So today hearing Rupp Johnson Struds et al
I am convinced
Where Holland needs to focus is on the D group
Tampa and good teams can get by with forwards changing, getting hurt etc
But if the D group isn’t right the other two aspects suffer. The goalies magically have issues and the forwards struggle. Smith also creates his own issues, but if the D were better maybe he calms down if he’s back
Bro is a serious add but he needs cover
Bouch has a ton of potential but he needs cover
Bouch also needs to hit the gym hard this summer. He does not have the wheels to not do that. He needs the weight and strength to have the confidence he needs to do his job better
Bro should as well. To avoid getting hurt more. To feel more bald to compete physically. He can sacrifice some speed if that happens as a result
Holland need to add a significant D, not necessarily expensive
Maybe if he gets LD Bro is RD
If he gets RD Bro is LD
For me Kulak isn’t that player
They are very likely back in the fray next playoffs
I don’t think you can parachute in that D. Not when the D group isn’t solidified and settled as Tampa or Denver are as Kenny says
Whatever happens in the F group and goal, getting the D core better is key
Bourgeault plus first round being spit balled by Matheson on Twitter.
Well, that’s extremely stupid.
Starting to get a bad feeling about this off season.
Maybe for Hellebyuck and dumping all our garbage contracts
I’d do that
It’d pretty much have to be for a goalie. Tough to see anything else that would require that kind of capital. Hope it’s not Gibson.
I don’t see any Matheson tweet from today…?
Josh Anderson to the Oilers is a dumb idea. I’d rather go for Kane, who is actually elite.
Hmm. Maybe the org is not evolving.
When did the org mention anything about Josh Anderson?
The Matheson stuff too. I can’t find any mention of either.
When the Bolts get in their groove, their enormous and not ‘skating optional’ D are really hard to penetrate
They don’t have a ‘nice guy’ in the bunch
To me this is the way. There is always a spot for a Makar, but unless you can find perfect partners for smaller D, there is always risk of getting exposed there
The Oilers couldn’t do it this time. I think Holland is trying to get there based on the D he drafted, tall and mobile
It’s the placeholders I’m concerned about because they also need to win now and we’re a few years from the current 3 greenhorns being established in the NHL. And OMB
Excited to see Bourg play again in a few mins. He is so much fun to watch with his hands, sneaky release but most of all his iq. He reminds me of a slightly less explosive but bigger Brayden Point.
The fact that he looked like he belonged in his limited preseason experience is only another up arrow in a player full of them right now.
Anyone notice that both Woodcroft and Holland emphasized the need for internal improvement from the 24 and under crowd? Nice to have a coach and GM on the same page.
My thinking is the org is *beginning* to evolve, particularly with Woodcroft at the helm, and that the decision-making on Puljujarvi is/will be the bell weather. Matheson asked JW of his take on Puljujarvi (throwing in a typical snipe at the player). JW took Matheson’s lob and reverse dunked on the latter in hilarious fashion.
Welcome to the Space Jam, Jim Matheson, your face is now on a poster.
Later, an actual smart reporter (can’t remember the name), observed that JP was very good defensively (citing on-ice goal share) and asked if he could play PK. Woodcroft made an interesting comment — time to experiment is training camp, and special teams is a way to get a player’s minutes up.
Now, DNB correctly pointed out that Woodcroft was more bullish than Holland in the media avail. Holland seemed a bit guarded, but could that be a negotiating tactic? For sure the price on JP has dropped, and IMO it’s prudent to go long with him now. Is it risky? Sure, but JP long term at a cap hit at 3-4 is now within reach (my own speculation), whereas previously (as per Dennis King on Twitter), it was 5+ long term and 3 on a bridge.
You *need* value contracts. JP is a great start. With a return to full health and continued development, he can be our Danault on the wing, an elite defensive forward playing in the top 6.
They need to commit to the guy. He is unusual, unorthodox, and the full package is taking longer to arrive, but at his worst this season he *still* helped you win games. I’d like the org, collectively, to be bullish and bet on this player.
Holland did it once; now’s the time to double down.
I believe that was Gregor that asked about Jesse and the PK.
My only concern with him is that he isn’t returned to full health, but they’d know that
I doubt his agent would advise him to go long and low unless he thinks this is all JP has in him
Agent is what I’m most worried about here (I guess also whether Puljujarvi himself is happy).
Kothaniemi, also represented by Lehto, just signed for 8 x $4.82M.
Basically identical draft pedigree. Puljujarvi had better boxcars. Kotkaniemi didn’t get the McDavid bump, and is younger. But younger means his deal was for more RFA years, while term for Puljujarvi would involve more UFA seasons.
JK also a center, I believe.
Also, offer sheet means overpay if you really want the player, right?
Is that comparable to “normal course RFA negotiations”?
Fair to add that he’s a C into the equation.
The offer sheet was for $6.1M I believe. 8 x $4.82 was the extension he negotiated a couple of months back (you know this I guess?), so not directly related to the offer sheet. I guess you could argue that the overall situation drove the price up..
I remain concerned what Lehto would let Puljujarvi sign for, short or long term.
Ya, I forgot the re-sign and didn’t read careful enough – apologies.
I also have concern regarding Lehto – I am hopeful that him now working for the Wasserman group, that represents McDavid, could mitigate things….
Jesse negotiation leverage is basically zero- he had an interesting year but definitely not a great year. He is not going to Russia or Finland. He is signing a value contract because he didn’t force Holland’s hand this year. For the money Holland can’t replace JP
You remember that he has arbitration rights? (as does Yamamoto)
Holland doesn’t really control the negotiation.
I feel that had ok years – lots of warts and potential – would an arbitrator see it different? Where would a young winger want to play more that with the Oilers right now? All the good teams are struggling with the cap as well.
An arbitrator looks at comparables (and only certain types of evidence is allowed to be entered).
An arbitrator does’t look at “warts” – he looks at numbers of comparable players.
I hear you, I just think an arbitrator would give them more than $2M per. Probably their agents think that as well.
A way I think about it is this:
-There were 244 NHL forwards who made $2M or more last season (that’s almost 8 forwards per team)
-Yamamoto was 155th in scoring among forwards. Puljujarvi was 180th but he missed games so he was a bit better than that
-Both of them played more than 16 minutes a game (149th and 179th in the league)
RFAs (even with arbitration rights) will get dinged a bit relative to the averages, but by the surface numbers Yamamoto and Puljujarvi were both in the top 180 forwards in the league. That group gets paid $3.4M and up.
That’s why I think under $2M is extremely optimistic (even accounting for them playing with McDavid and Draisaitl and other stuff). Hope I’m wrong obviously.
Its definitely not zero – Friedman said earlier this week that he’s heard he’s got a good arb case.
He likely could get an award approaching $3MM I would suspect.
If it’s true Yamo and JP could get over 3 in arb, then you need to start there at a bridge and go a touch higher long term.
They really need to dump Foegele, Kassian, and Barrie.
I didn’t say over $3MM, I said approaching $3MM.
Maybe its more than $3MM, I’m not sure, but its probably closer to $3MM than $2MM.
Arbitrators look at presented comparables, and only certain types of numbers are permitted. They will see Yamo’s 20G. They don’t “see” that he played with Drai and McDavid, for example.
Could not agree with you more!
The Oilers, I’m told, aren’t willing to go long term on Kane. They’re more willing to consider short- and potentially medium-term options.
DNB on Kane: https://theathletic.com/3356143/2022/06/08/oilers-jay-woodcroft-jesse-puljujarvi/
GOOD!
That’s the correct call, and I’m a fan of Evander. More critical to lock down the younger talent to some term at lower cap hits.
They also have long termed enough players, Leon and Connor up soon enough
Kane would be a placeholder until somebody young emerges
A trade is not an insult, it’s an exchange. I don’t think trading a player means you have “given up on them” or they are somehow “less adequate.” I see it as a “team needs” situation.
Honestly, I think Evander Kane brings a ton more of what the Oilers need than RNH, especially in the playoffs.
I love RNH. He’s classy, humble, professional, good on special teams and the best 3C in the league. I love loyalty and consistency, therefore trading a longtime Oiler would be extremely difficult for me. Honestly, it would be very hard to see RNH on another team, he’s very much my kind of human being and he has stuck by us here in Edmonton.
To fill the gap I would gamble on Ryan McLeod at 3C. I also hear he can kill penalties. Yes, some young players have to step up.
I would bet big money that this situation is not as black and white as my limited analysis. Anyway, I’m glad I don’t have to make the decision.
I’ll also probably change my mind tomorrow.
Maybe it’s time for a “bold move” to get the Oilers over the hump? Masai Ujiri traded DeRozan for Leonard…
Evander Kane shot 10% above his career average in the playoffs and had 3 more points than RNH. RNH can play center/LW and is signed for 7 more years at a low AAV.
I’m sure you are correct. Admittedly, the numbers game is not my strong suit. I just think Kane moves the needle a little bit more than the Nuge when I watch the games.
Most of what you say about RNH is irrelevant – he has a full NMC. He is not going anywhere unless he waives that and Holland won’t be the GM to even approach him to consider waiving. Certainly 12 months after he got it.
Banished to irrelevance, didn’t even know there was a no move clause.
Well put
I also think Nuge is awesome, and that it was a mistake signing him
Maybe there weren’t options there, McLeod wasn’t known well enough either at the NHL level
Utility players are great, but I thought they needed more bite in the group. It is prudent to have three experienced Cs as we needed this playoffs. But Nuge wasn’t that great
I don’t know how long he’ll hold up. He’s not that big a guy and apparently had a bad shoulder again. He gets tired. He gets the flu for a month each year
I don’t think Holland will do anything there
Again, I love the Nuge. Additionally, I’m not trying to troll the community. I guess I love tough choices, they appear to be big opportunities. I think this decision will be significant either way it goes. I agree and suspect Holland will not move him – definitely not unhappy about that.
Nuge may not have “been that great”, I guess, but he did have 14 points in 16 games and led the forwards in PK time – a highly effective PK.
Yes, another reason why this would be an extremely tough choice. I know I am likely being frustratingly intuitive for a community with a brilliant amount of scientific information. (that I love referencing by the way – thanks very much) Just see Kane helping the Oilers more and Nuge helping a team that doesn’t have 97 and 29 already. I will let it go now, my therapist is calling. LOL
— it’s an interesting way of looking at it: if the choice next year was Kane or Nuge, which one is better for team?
— Your “who moves the needle” criteria certainly favours Kane.
— option A: back team into corner by paying a lot for Kane and keep Nuge
— option B: get stuff for Nuge and sign Kane
Of course option B is only fiction but it’s interesting: I don’t know who I’d rather have next year only.
And let’s not forget how horrible the PK was when he was injured…….
powerplay too
I would love to see what Woodcroft and Manson can achieve with this team with a full training camp and small summer investments.
Up front, I would sign Colin Blackwell ($1M), Johan Larsson ($1M), Ryan McLeod ($1.25M), Yamamoto ($2.25M) and Puljujarvi ($2.5M…hopefully). Buy out Kassian and run:
Hyman – McDavid – Yamamoto
Nuge – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
Foegele – McLeod – Holloway
Blackwell – Larsson – Ryan
Extras: Shore, Malone
Total Investment (net of Kassian savings) of ~$6M. Leaving us $1m in cap space
On Defense, trade Barrie to Seattle for a second round pick. Try really hard to trade our first round pick, the Seattle 2nd round pick, Samorukov, Bourgault and the Klefbom contract for Chychrun. Probably not enough, but I would try. Chychrun on second pair with Bouchard would be great. Close to cap neutral as well. Kulak walks here unless Keith retires.
If the deal can’t be done, sign Kulak to a $3M x 2 or 3 year deal. Run him on 3rd pair with Broberg and Keith stays with Bouchard. Here, we net out to save $1M
Goalie – Would see if a 2023 pick and Skinner could get you Ullmark from Boston. Run him with Smitty. This -$3M swing would require some dancing until Klefbom hit LTIR, but feasibly could work.
To be clear, we had $7.5M in cap space to start. Paying for my forwards eats away $6M of that total. On Defense, trading Barrie and signing Kulak saves us another $1.5M.
We now have $3M in space to cover Ullmark, if we can get him and use Skinner to pay for $750k of that amount. Close to the cap, could massage our way across the line before Klefbom LTIR
Alex DeBrincat tops the Daily Faceoff trade board.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/trade-targets-chicagos-alex-debrincat-is-no-1-player-available-in-wild-nhl-offseason/
I find it funny that the article uses the term ‘the rubber meets the road’ in reference to the Canucks.
I lold.
If Kane wins back his contract, hes tied to the Sharks.
Oil would have to trade and ask Sharks to retain. Might get Kane for 5M
How did Holland repeat that mistake with Holloway?
When Holloway was first ready to play games this season, it had been almost a year since he had last played, after having two surgeries and missing all of training camp and the first while of the season.
Is there any doubt he needed to start this season in the AHL?
After a hot start for a few weeks, the grind of professional hockey really took fold and Holloway proceeded to be “up and down” as one would expect a 20 year old prospect to be in his rookie pro season.
He started to find his groove down the stretch and there were rumblings from insiders that he might be called up. Then he got hurt again and missed a month before returning right before the playoffs.
After the AHL playoffs, he was called up an fully available to the coach.
So, please, tell me how Holland could have, or should have, otherwise deployed Holloway this season?
Yeah, I think Bouchard was ready and was annoyingly I was annoyed he wasn’t allowed get ice time last year to be better this year. I think OP is right about Holloway not being ready due to multiple (and lingering) injuries and that delay in getting up to speed.
Maybe still some arguments about Woody not playing him in the playoffs, but not Holland keeping him unavailable.
I’m pretty happy with the way Bouchard has been handled he’s 22 and produced in mostly first or second pairing duties.
played in all three game states, on a team that made it to the final four.
It’s hard to look at those results and quibble much with the method.
I think this may be speaking to me given my long-stated position that I think the player maybe just didn’t want to sign last season. Perhaps he wanted to ensure that he could play back home for another year knowing that he wasn’t NHL ready and he would rather play back home then in Bakersfield?
If the Oilers did make a “clerical error”, and, sure, there is that possibility, that didn’t preclude them signing him at any prior time, right?
I can’t remember the exact dates but if his rights were lost in, April 15, and the Oilers realized it on, say, April 20 or May 18, they could have reached out and signed him then, right?
Also, if Blumel wanted to sign in the NHL, wouldn’t his agent be reaching out to Ken Holland prior to returning to Europe?
I don’t see how any agent would let that date pass.
I suspect the debate on ‘To Kane or Not to Kane’ this summer is largely influenced by how people perceive the McDavid/Draisaitl window (ie how long does that window viably stay open?).
Some people assume Leon and Connor will both extend past their current terms and thus they don’t want to hamper the first years of the next deals with an alabatross contract for an aging power forward.
Other folks, myself included, think the window to win is right now and unless the Oilers win at least one cup and more likely two asap, their chances of retaining one or both of the dynamic duo beyond their current contracts will be challenging. Tavares is the most recent cautionary tale here.
I know a lot of Edmontonians take it personally if someone suggests that Connor or Leon may want to leave sooner rather than later. “What’s wrong with our town?” And neither of the players have expressed wanting to leave. But realistically, a player will never admit this right until they’re at the cusp of free agency. Why would you antagonize the fanbase this way?
The complacency on this issue imo comes from how superstars have historically stayed loyal to the team that drafted them and been good soldiers on contracts as a result.
Unfortunately this is not the way younger generations think anymore. Unquestioned loyalty has been replaced by a realistic assessment that you truly only get one life and decisions that take you away from your truest dreams are decisions that should never be made.
My belief is Connor McDavid would like nothing more than to win a cup or three as an Oiler and if he does within the contract term that remains, that will make his decision on where to play going forward a more difficult one. But in his heart of hearts, I suspect McJesus wants to be the messiah that ends the Leafs Cup drought and sends young lasses into the streets to dance topless.
Who can begrudge a kid from Newmarket this dream? I certainly can’t but if you don’t like this scenario, then get onboard with signing Kane because if this team doesn’t get over the hump as soon as humanly possible there are no guarantees beyond the contracts that are in place now.
If that was truly his dream, why did he sign the 8 year deal with the Oilers in the first place?
I also think the team’s success over the next three years will decide whether he stays in Edmonton or not. And I say three, because if his “ride or die” Draisaitl doesn’t resign, it’s even more unlikely he does a year later.
I think Connor is an exceptional young man whose parents instilled a strong sense of responsibility in him. He signed the Max term deal to give the team that drafted him the fairest shake possible. But he owes the Oilers nothing beyond this. If they’ve won a couple of Cups at contract expiry, hockey success may trump other personal aspirations and he could reup. If the Oilers haven’t achieved the grail, he could likely conclude that dream is best pursued elsewhere.
No one thought Gretzky would leave until it happened. What was the spur? His contract expiring.
Remember the old saying “No Wife no Life”
I think it’s Happy Wife Happy Life
Given the lack of success of the Toronto franchise since 1967 what makes you think Connor would pick Toronto! Edmonton has a younger core group than Toronto with excellent youth in the wings. Regardless of the Toronto media hype, Toronto is not the center of the universe and every mortals dream of the place to play professional Hockey! Very few players in any sport have made their legacy by moving to an already strong team to do so!
Toronto is not winning anything anytime soon.
True, but Gretzky was traded mostly because Pocklington was broke and couldn’t pay him or any other star anymore. He never really wanted to leave. He was basically forced to.
Can you imagine the hysteria if Leon will only agree to a one year extension?
You could be right in your assessment – hope that you’re wrong.
I’m not sure though that Tavares is the right comp. When he made the decision to leave Long Island, Islanders management had been a s*&^ show for several years and only at the 12th hour did they hire a competent GM (and coach). Additionally, NYI had never won a playoff series he participated in and he had to be looking at what was coming/on the roster and thinking it was now or never to get out and go home and perhaps win a cup.
Oilers have been in the post season 4 of McDavid’s 7 seasons (4 of Drai’s 8), they made it to the 2nd round once, 3rd round once and with some astute moves it would appear that the window is open.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to ask players to be loyal when management does not always reciprocate, but Connor and Leon see that the window is still open when their contracts are up, it would certainly give them a strong reason to stay.
In that regard, I think the moves that Holland makes this summer will have massive implications for the next few years, which will be a big factor in convincing the dynamic duo to stay for the ride.
Here is the key – to get Nichushkin or Paul before they “pop” like they both did this season, right?
They can afford one big contract, but overall you’re correct.
Given that Kane is a UFA, should we not consider his services as we would any other UFA on a different team? He played well and out scored his penalties. I’m not sure I’d consider his performance anywhere near an underperformance. In that respect, I’m not sure UFA dollars are best spent on paying full value (or even overvalue – because I think he slightly overachieved in the stats column). Shouldn’t UFA dollars be spent on perceived undervaluations? I’d see signing Kane for anything above $5.5 to be a waste of cap room. Tbh. Unless it’s an obvious discount because he wants to be in western Canada and play with McD, I think there’s a case for cutting him loose…
What about Jack Campbell?
Is it a forgone conclusion the Leafs will sign him? Getting pretty late in the process.
He only costs money. I’d be comfortable giving him some term and coin, maybe like a 5 year deal around 5.5. It’s a risk but he was all star quality until he hit a wall last year. Used to the pressure of a Canadian market.
I admittedly haven’t watched him much but it seems like a #1 guy that is about to hit free agency.
The Leafs want to sign him (from accounts) but money may be an issue (from accounts).
If he wants too much from the Leafs, its probably too much from the Oilers, no?
Any #1 guy is going to cost $5M+. So if they don’t want to spend that, they are grabbing another stopgap.
Oilers just have to find a way to shed some of their deadweight and they would have enough space for him.
It would mean no Kane however. I’m fine with this, I think you hire gunslingers at the deadline for picks.
I think he’s pretty much a perfect fit for the Oilers. Age, performance history, attitude. Honestly I’m surprised there hasn’t been more chatter about this. Maybe the eastern media is trying to keep it quiet, or he will be resigning in Toronto shortly.
Is it impossible to hope that Skinner break through like Oettinger this year?
I’d look at Husso as the potential….
Skinner has been better than Husso at every stage of post-draft development (and at a younger age at each stage).
Better in comparable AHL years and better in the NHL this year than Husso was last year (his first NHL games).
If Smith does retire, which means we don’t need to worry about his cap hit (moving him, assigning him, buying him out, LTIR, etc.), then I do think a SHORT term veteran stop gap, such as Holtby or Reimer makes sense.
Someone that we could reasonably rely on for a good 50 games (to SKinner’s 30) but doesn’t block Skinner from “taking over” in the years to come (or even this year if he does “pop” Husso-style).
Interesting to see the Nucks already want to move on from Dickenson. Didn’t our neighborhood troll speak about how good of a signing that was?
Being an NHL GM involves a series of bets and some don’t pay off.
Based on Dickenson’s play in Dallas, it wasn’t a bad bet but it turns out he was a poor fit and Hugo Lamikko outplayed him.
See Warren Foegele for reference.
Warren Foegele, seen for reference:
https://theathletic.com/3190785/2022/03/18/lowetide-is-oilers-winger-warren-foegele-doing-enough-to-warrant-his-contract?source=user-shared-article
Foegele’s goal share in the regular season was 44.7% and in the playoffs it was 27.7%.
Also of note, LT traded him to Minnesota in today’s post.
I should add Jim Benning was a dreadful pro scout who was an old timey “seen him good” GM.
The Canucks are looking to move on from a few more of his hires.
Seems on this blog, you lauded most moves (trade, draft, FA signing or other) Benning made or at least held it up as being better than any moves made by any Oiler GM right up until he was fired. Is it possible I am misremembering that?
Some good…some bad.
The trade for JT Miller was brilliant for example…others not so much.
Now you say not so much, but for the past several seasons, most of his moves per your posts, if they were to be believed, were very astute. There’s a Batman character often seen with coin whose name might aptly describe your current position on Jim Benning’s talents as a GM.
You are not misremembering. He just moves the goalposts or conveniently forgets his bad takes.
For example, the OEL trade was lauded by HH as a brilliant move because OEL would age well, and how the Sedins must have had a hand in it because they are Swedish and also deserve credit for the trade.
And then he later said the OEL trade was “dumb”.
And then a few weeks ago, he said the trade was a mastermind move by Benning for cap reasons to appease the owners or something.
And now I see he doesn’t feel the trade as brilliant as he said it was a few weeks ago.
Revisionist nonsense.
I still believe the OEL trade was fine both at the time and now.
It was means to move on from 3 very poor contracts.
While his cap hit is a bit high, he has fit in very well in Vancouver.
This was you not even two months ago:
“Harpers Hair
Reply to jp
April 17, 2022 5:22 pm
I would do the Miller trade over again all day long and if Vancouver trades him in the offseason they’ll get a massive haul for him.
The OEL/Garland trade was just dumb but Benning was trying to save his job as often happens.
All he had to do was wait a year and all the shit contracts would have been off the books and The Canucks would have had a ton of cap space and first round picks in the system.
Of course we never know what the directives from ownership are.”
You seem to be contradicting yourself, here.
Either that or you need to get your head examined if you can’t remember your stance on the matter not even 2 months ago.
“Revisionist nonsense” he says..
You have zero credibility on any hockey related topic because you pull stuff like this all of the time.
“Revisionist nonsense”
. . .
Where is “Steve Smith” when you need him?
Well played digging that out lol.
And refuses to pay when he loses a bet.
I wonder if he tells his bookies when he loses and needs to pay up
“I didn’t lose – that’s just revisionist nonsense!”
Fairweather fan
The Oilers want to part with Foegele? Where did you hear that?
Ways to improve with no money. Hmmm
1 Goaltender maybe 2 goaltenders (Is Skinner even NHL goalie? I don’t know)
2 Internal development for low dollars
McLeod – check
Yamamoto – check
Bouchard – check but man he needs to solidify
Pooly – injury, uneven performance
explore if JP and a second can return a cheap #1RW?
Holloway – can we bank on it?
Broberg – same
Niemo – can he suprise?
Samorukov – can he suprise?
Bourgault – he looked very good pre-season
3 Addition through subtraction, trades, signings, free agency
Should have enough resources to build an excellent starting 12. Can we sign Kane, Kulak? We need them. But Depends on Holland. Holland is good at collaborating. Mediocre at digging up talent. Mediocre at creative trade solutions. No excuse not to pull together a starting 12.
If the first announcement is the signing of Shore or Nygaard I’ll have a fit. Because those depth positions are just as critical now, he needs to round up some extreme value. Im for Hoglander, he plays hard.
I appreciate your rosters LT showing just how difficult this roster improvement will be. I have returned to my post started at 9am, no idea how far behind the conversation I am.
I don’t think you will need to worry about hearing of a Shore signing…
😉
Archibald??
Exhibit A of “Oilers Fans Can’t Stand Defencemen Who Score”
Rookie center who scores 16 EV points with 51.8% CF – flawless, no notes.
Rookie RHD who scores 35 EV points with 54.3% CF – better shape up quick, bud!!
Would Smith’s Cap Hit be gone if he were to retire? Or would it stay because it’s an Over 35 contract?
Gone
They made some amendments to the CBA in 2020 that further defined 35+ contracts – Smith’s contract is defined as a standard players contract due to it being back loaded (more money in year 2)
Now the question is, why would he retire and give up $2M? He could just play and suck, then sit on the bench or get sent down while collecting his $2M. Or go on LTIR and still collect.
Yes- that is the question
And it’s actually $2.5M – his deal was structured as $1.9 and $2.5 = $4.4M total and a $2.2M AAV
I don’t know why he’d walk away from $2.5M but I’m not in Mike Smith’s head
A player can’t just decide to go on LTIR, they have to have a doctor diagnose them with something that prevents them from playing. The $2.5 million of cash salary he would get next year (take away somewhere around half of that for taxes) may not be his only consideration, given that he has made $48 million in his career. Depends on how he managed his finances over his career. Mike Smith doesn’t seem like a guy who is going to going to stick around to mail in his effort and suck or be sent to the minors. He’ll decide if he wants to put in the effort to train to be able to play as well as he is able for however many games the Oilers would start him. Luongo walked away from a lot more money than Smith would be.
Gregor postulated that, when he signed for 2-years, it was known between Holland and Smith that the 2nd year was uncertain and what role Smith would/could play, if any, was uncertain.
I think the contract was structured as it is (back-loaded) in order to take in to account the possibility of retirement and cap relief.
Him and Kelfbom can partner up in a Golf foursome in league play.
From Chris Faber:
I’d imagine Kuzmenko lands with Edmonton, Vancouver or Vegas.
There may be other teams but these three teams are what I’ve heard.
——————
I wouldn’t even have him as a lock to make the team but sure do hope the Oilers sign him given it’s locked as a one-year ELC so as little risk a signing as possible.
I hope the AAV is low too, but IMO it’s close to certain he’s good enough to make the team, with a possibility of him being a real good player (and I think even if he’s only OK there’s still a spot for him in the top 9).
I posted this in the last thread on recent comparables. If there’s some failures that I missed, I’d be happy for others to add them to the list.
From what I’ve read Kuz isn’t fast. I think most of those guys are pretty good skaters
Might not matter but it is hard to succeed without it in the NHL. Can’t create space
Yeah, I honestly haven’t looked into the details much with him, beyond having good boxcars and being highly sought after (since you know, he might never be an Oiler).
Just looking now and found some decent scouting reports. The first one mentions his quickness and that his skating is quite good, but there are also mentions of ‘not the speed you’d like for a smaller player’ (that was by Pronman, who has him ranked as the top FA this year from College/Europe/Junior).
https://eprinkside.com/2022/06/02/andrei-kuzmenko-is-ready-for-an-nhl-roster-spot
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/canucks-hockey/who-is-andrei-kuzmenko-the-russian-ufa-with-reported-interest-from-the-canucks-5099750
https://theathletic.com/3141020/2022/02/23/pronman-ranking-the-top-free-agents-from-college-hockey-junior-and-europe/
We’ll see soon enough I guess, wherever he signs.
I saw that post, and you aren’t wrong. I would note, that was one season in the KHL at those rates (at 25-26) which, to this point, is an outlier in his career.
Be really nice if the other two interested parties didn’t happen to inhabit the same division.
Makes me wonder how much of this situation is contrived by Milstein.
Yup.
IIRC Holland offered $5M x 7 to Markstrom vs. $6M x 6 from the Flames. There was also something about Markstrom wanting to go to Calgary all along, but it’s tough to know the accuracy of the last part.
This was meant for Redbird elsewhere in the thread. 🤷
When thinking about the inevitable Kulak extension, one thing to note, he may be the highest rated left shot UFA D. There are 3-3 higher end right shot UFA D but not left shot.
Gregor has mentioned rhe same thing but I thought Chiarot would be the best LD available in the “leagues” eyes. Kulak would definitely be top 2 either way.
I would swing for Gudbranson as 3RHD before Kulak. Freedom to trade Barrie, and you keep a big punishing veteran defenseman to work with Broberg on this pairing.
He gets pyloned frequently
I like the idea , would prefer a better skater
I watched a lot of Flames this year. Grudbranson skates pretty good, imo better than you are suggesting, is tougher than most and tall guy with a long active stick, kills penalty and blocks shots. Paired with Broberg they would cover a lot of space. Broberg would be able to play the left side this will be his side as he moves past Keith in the depth chart.
I would rather play Broberg on the right side with Keith on the 3rd pairing. Keith’s elite passing will help Broberg transition to the NHL faster than a big lug like Gudbranson.
I would posit that Gudbranson is not a good NHL defenceman for playing Colorado. If we are building a team to win the west it has to be able to go through Colorado. Gudbranson got turnstiled by Edmonton.
Serious question, has turcotte fallen that far off from his draft that he would be included in a trade for foegele? i get they have Kopi and Byfield but i remember Turcotte’s draft year really really wanting him for the Oilers. If this trade is remotely possible, i do it now.
Turcotte has been beset by numerous injuries including an emergency appendectomy, concussions and Covid since being drafted.
When healthy, he hasn’t really shown much progression.
https://theathletic.com/3354612/2022/06/08/kings-quinton-byfield-prospects/
Bust? Maybe he should go back to being a Jockey.
Why are people worried about Jesse’s production? Yamamoto and McLeod have their own production warts – but the blog is zoned in on Jesse.
all three should be signed for under $2M – that is going to be really hard to replace on a win now team. If it is about winning in the play-off aren’t these three the type of players TBL trade for as they run for another cup …(Coleman, Barcley Paul, Hagel).
23 points in 28 games for Jesse before he was sidelined with Covid. He was never “the same” after that, dealing with injuries and illness (non-Covid) and, for all we know, lingering Covid symptoms.
Yamo and Jesse both have arb rights and, from accounts, decent cases. $2MM seems low. I mean, Yamo did score 20 goals and has arb rights. I don’t think he comes in at $2MM.
It’s a tough decision
I think JP has more long term upside
Yamo was the better player this season this but his PPG was lower
Depends what they want. They need defensive play most. JP is better there. But he crapped the bed in the playoffs. Yamo got put out on a routine play so he’s always an injury risk
They might think JP doesn’t have the mental side down enough. That is the kicker really, who’s mentally tough enough for the grind
Yamamoto and Puljujarvi are arbitration eligible. Neither will come in under $2 million in arbitration.
I don’t see this- flat cap world, current AAV is $1.2M. These two are projecting for 3RW right now.
Yamamoto 186 NHL games -and 93 points
Jesse – 259 NHL games 96 points.
Oilers have to qualify at $1.4M. $2M is a great raise for either player.
McLeod is going to be around $1.3M.
others understand the QO better than I do. But that is a huge raise – with a show me, patient GM.
Would anyone offer sheet Yamamoto or Puljujarvi? Anything between an AAV of $2.1 to $4.2 million is a 2nd round pick if the OIlers didn’t match. What would others think the Oilers could or would match up to vs. how much they might be willing to pay to get one of them?
I would not want to lose either for a 2nd round pick. They need to get back a player of similar stature if they cannot retain one or the other.
I agree with the others here, I believe arbitration would award both players more than $2M.
Both players scored 0.5 points per game this season. If you look around the league that’s a top 6 scoring rate (or damn close).
Got off my Duff and cancelled Sportsnet this morning.
Usually I don’t bother as it is a hassle to drop it in the spring and sign up again in the fall.
Wasn’t sure if this topic came up yesterday but wasn’t impressed with this Sportsnet tweet.
The Sportsnet panel that’s been around the longest has been shitting on the Oilers for the last umpteen years.
Elliotte, McLean, and Bieksa offered great / impartial analysis as always. David Amber and Anthony Stewart are also quality.
It’s only Hrudey and Campbell who showed their Lames’ tattoos in the BoA series.
As for the SportsNet Toronto media … haters gonna hate. Fuck ’em.
I think this stuff gets way way overblown. Who cares? The few who do won’t remember in a week. The bigger issue with Sportsnet is the quality of its broadcasters. Outside of Friedman, they all range from awful to meh. Even the ones I personally like as people, Louie Debrusk, are meh broadcasters at best.
An interesting straw poll would be who actually pays attention to the panel during intermissions, and who finds something else to do.
Why even reply that you don’t care that the panel has a certain narrative. Teams were going after Leon with attempts to injure his ankle. This happened on numerous occasions and the panel showed one lousy slash on Leon’s ankle while laughing about it. I remember the flyers going after Valeri Kharlmov ankle in a blatant attempt to injure It was sickening way to win back them as it is today.
Why is it that someone as mild as Gretzky says what he thinks on a US broadcast?
Because the viewers can take it
Canadians can’t. They get personally offended if someone has a different opinion. The folks in the US can be extreme, but it’s a huge population so there’s always another viewer, they can appeal to US hockey fans
Here they just try to keep everyone happy except those that do understand the game on a deeper level
I also think with the Canadian crews the lack of ability to do their hair is a hiring demand
Except for the arrogant Bieksa, whom they seem to have asked to ‘tone it down’ with the coiffs
I PVR the games so that I don’t waste my time with the talking heads do their thing which is trying to sell the game. This comes complete with white washing the less than professional officiating and or incompetence.
I’m just looking at the current crop of goalie FAs and Eric Comrie keeps popping out to me in good places. Sv%, Goals saved above expected, goals saved above average, age, price-point… he’s never been a #1, so I recognize going into next year with him and Skinner would be risky, but… I also think they could be a solid duo, and not over-priced (read high-potential for value contracts). If you could get him to go 2M x 3 years… that’s security for a guy who’s never made much and also good likelyhood to be value even if he’s average.
Is it Comrie time again in E-town?
Something to add on Holland and goaltending.
Holland not overpaying for non-elite goaltending has become something of an axiom. If you look at his history though, that has seldom/never meant cheaping out and not paying for goaltending (like Smith/Skinner or Holtby/Skinner would be).
Through his time in Detroit he paid his goalies pretty well. The following are literally all of the starters during Holland’s tenure in Detroit.
Osgood was getting $1.6-$3.5M from 1997 to 2000
CuJo was paid $8M 2002, 2003
Hasek was paid $7.5 and $8M in 2001 and 2003 (then returned for cheap after age 40)
Legace also played around the same time, I couldn’t find his salary.
Howard started out cheap but was making $5M+ for most of his time as starter.
Mrazek also started out cheap but worked his way up to $4M once he was starting.
Even with the Oilers, Smith has been fairly cheap, but Mikko isn’t, and they’ve been spending around $7M per year total on goalies.
Anyway, if Smith isn’t back, I think (and history suggests) it’s highly unlikely Holland will only spend $2.2M on his replacement.
Thanks for digging into this, jp – you’re right that the narrative of those Detroit teams was that they weren’t carried by an elite goaltender (even Hasek was on the downslide).
Maybe the cautionary aspect is that Holland overpays for mediocre goaltending… but he doesn’t have a Lidstrom now.
Osgood and Vernon were both very underrated in their careers.
Ha!
As Reja is pointing out, while guys like Osgood and Howard weren’t elite goalies, I think history is remembering them as less than they were.
Every one of the guys I listed except for Osgood was at least a .910SV% goalie for the Red Wings. Osgood had a .904 after Holland became GM (some bad years in his 2nd stint), but was a .908 goalie during the years listed above.
Even with the Oilers, the only guy Holland signed would have to be considered more ‘value deal’ than ‘overpay’ considering he was getting 1B money the whole time.
He was willing to pay for Markstrom, just not quite as much or maybe as long as Calgary was. He tried to trade for Kuemper as well and his $4.5 million salary.
The one UFA that can elevate us to the next level is Darcy Kuemper.
Goalies are voodoo, but his track record since ’17-’18 is very very strong.
I’d prefer the big money got spent on a bona fide G this offseason, because as demonstrated wingers can be added much more easily as the season progresses.
I agree but I question if that eye injury affects his play in years to come, or if it’s in the rear view mirror come September.
Kuemper is always hurt. Availability is a requirement for a goaltender.
Then why the heck are you always touting a trade for Price?
I said “expect” a trade. I did not endorse the trade.
Maybe I’m misremembering.
I could swear you’ve suggested numerous trades involving Price at 50% retained over the last year or so.
Because I expect it. I imagine many scenarios, especially worst case ones. Identifying how things fall apart, or might fall apart is one of my strengths. Hope for the best, expect the worst.
I like Nils Hoglander. Dude is young (21), Has positive CF%, his points are almost all EV strength. Finished 8th in Calder voting.
The one great thing about the JP situation is that Holland is under no pressure to make a move; If he decides to trade JP, the return should be fair / equitable. (i.e. another value contract)
You would be very confident trading JP within the division? On a team where he could potentially excel?
It will be interesting to see where Evander Kane spends his offseason and who he works out with.
https://theathletic.com/3355725/2022/06/09/nhl-top-50-free-agents-2022/
Lordy, I actually had no idea how many good UFAs are available this year, shame we have no space.
Beyond the big names guys like Marchment, Palat, Giroux, Perron, Niederreiter, Strome, Trocheck, Reilly Smith, Rakell, Stastny, etc
I like guys like Palat, Niederreiter, Smith. Guys who have either won or all of have gone deep and know what it takes to win.
Donato and Domi are guys who could be a bit a cheaper and potentially post big numbers with Connor or Leon. Ideally you might like a bit more size though.
The smart play when it comes to Kane might be to let him walk and sign the next UFA looking to boost his numbers to a one- year deal.
Who are you thinking of?
Domi would be real cheap on a one-year deal. Smaller, but nasty too.
This is the right thinking.
Kane was fantastic because he was highly motivated. Without 97 he’s not a $6M player.
The player who scored 49 points in 56 games to lead San Jose in the 56 game 20/21 season and has scored at a 30+ goals per 82 games in each of the last 6 seasons (his career average is 29 goals per 82 games) would easily get $6 million per season in the open market (though maybe not for more than 4 seasons. He would be a first line winger on most other teams in the NHL.
Ya. Kane is the real deal. Period. Might end up being the best winger McDavid ever had once his career is over. But term and dollar for a 31 year old might not make sense.
Winning the lotto on one ticket doesn’t guarantee a win on your next ticket!😉
Prospecticacity!
The Shawinigan Cataractes can haul out the brooms this night with one more victory over Charlottetown. The Bourg has channeled his inner Stan Weir* this series, putting up 5+2 in the three games thus far and 12+8 in 14 total playoff games.
A win tonight puts the Cats in the Memorial Cup. Their potential opponents will be Edmonton or Seattle (EDM leads 3-1, can clinch Saturday), Windsor or Hamilton (WSR leads 2-1), and the host Saint John Sea Dogs, who will be well rested after being eliminated in the first round.
Tonight’s game will be on TSN 5 and the TSN app. Puck drop is @ 5 p.m. Plamondon time.
*Since there is no actual letter “W” in French, could it be Stan Ouir instead? Oui!
Anybody remember Crystal Plamandon?
Do we go back to the Rags and see about Georgiev?
How to get good players and keep good players when good players cost $$$ and we don’t have enough $$$.
I’d really like to see the Oilers win a couple trades, but that would involve Holland making trades. I haven’t seen him hands-down win a trade since he arrived. And while I like Keith mentoring our ‘yutes, His 5M would sure help sign Kane right quick.
Can he move on from Barrie, Kassian and maybe Foegele without flushing assets?
Can we make additions that help add to our team depth without major cap expenditures?
Can we find a mid-priced goalie who’s undervalued that can play as well as Smith-Koskinen did this past season?
There’s a lot of need this year. Here’s hoping ManWoodLand can erect a wiener.
Stopping buyouts and letting contracts run out would be a nice start. Looking at 4 years of a Kassian buyout would be depressing on top of all the other buyouts.
Sometimes I think buyouts are just a way to free up money to sign a new bad contract that will letter get bought out.
Stamp out buyout recursion now.
Enough with the buyouts it all started with Sekera. It’s the easy way out and it just cripples the team cap wise for years to come. If Holland can’t get creative with one of his G.M buddies on a trade it’s time to promote Kieth Gretzky as G.M.
That Minnesota trade is blah. Jost is garbage. Middleton was sheltered on a very good defensive team
Middleton spent most of the season playing big minutes for San Jose, not a very good defensive team.
I pray we let Kane sail. Seems he’s repeated the pattern of arriving at a team, having a great first stretch, signing a big ticket and sliding or becoming a problem. While I hope the best for people’s growth and maturation, to commit seven years to it seems downright silly. After his year, I gotta think other UFA’s or pending UFA’s get that playing with our big boys is worth a year of less money for the 7×7 they can sign after.
As for goaltending, I guess despite his elite puck moving skills, the fact no other team wanted him for a couple off seasons (including ours) should have been a tell?
Well said son!I hope your boys are doing great.I would trade Nurse for Hellebucyk.Reduces cap expense next year,and gets us a great tender.We have lots of young D coming up at LD.Morissey would also be a great target in Winnipeg.Who wants to play there?
I like roster A a hell of a lot better. Roster B is an injury away from disaster with the forwards.
I don’t necessarily hate the goaltending idea – it gives you a long look at Skinner until the trade deadline and informs what you need to do there. There is also the possibility that both Holtby and Skinner suck, and then we’re in big trouble.
Cam Talbot is a familiar face and I wonder if he could shake loose. 1 year left at 3.7 and I don’t think he was too happy with the Wild acquiring Fleury.
Both of Holtby and Tabot has worse Sv% than Mike Smith this past season.
And Talbot will be 35 next season and Smith will turn 41. And Talbot played 21 more games than Smith. And this goaltending talk is predicated on Smith retiring.
My point is that Smith had a better Sv% and the fan base is generally demanding better. Holtby and Talbot has worse Sv% and at least one of those played on a much more defensively responsible team. Their ages aren’t relevant.
On his pod this morning, Rishaug says he thinks Kane is looking for, at min, 6 years and, at min, $7MM.
If true, sail on Evander….
Yup, that’s a HARD pass for me. I don’t go above 6.5mil or 3 years. I’d much rather let him walk and then pursue a W in the next tier of UFAs like R. Smith or maybe Burakovsky. Alternatively, put that money towards a goalie upgrade and finding another Kulak.
You’ve always been “frugal” OP.
Keep on Keepin on.
Window 22-25
#PayTheMan
Not to be rude, but in some circles “frugal” can be read as “penny wise pound foolish” 😉
I’ve always thought this would be the case with Kane and always considered him a rental. The man’s got kids, not a lot in the bank and this is his last chance to sign a big contract.
The issue with free agents this year is no one that people would want to play for has money to pay wingers.
He can look all he wants. No one is giving him that much term
I somewhat agree. I don’t think Kane is going to get what he is reportedly looking for, but he’s going to get paid…and it won’t be with the Oilers.
I agree, I don’t see anyone giving him $7M x 6.
6 years at a lower number, or $7M for shorter term, sure, but not both.
NYR.
I asked my boss for an $80k raise and he said please have fun at your new job (we settled for $35k and I am still working there). The issue here is does Kane value financial gain more than winning? He did just declare bankruptcy, but we do not know what the arb ruling on the SJS contract will be.
Wait on the arb ruling and then make him an offer – I am in the $6.5 x 3 camp.
If a part of San Jose salary is added on to the Oilers money Kane will sign in Edmonton. Kane looked so loose and happy playing with Connor and Leon. I’m sure he has visions of scoring 50 and hoisting the Cup with the Oil. As we found out to the surprise of many that he’s a perfect fit in the top 6.
I understand your point – of course, there will be a negotiation and the player might not get what he’s “looking for”.
At the same time, with respect, I never really attribute any value to “real life comparisons” that people use as examples – contract negotiations in the the NHL are not equatable to the layman’s employment matters, an NHL player dealing with an injury is not relatable to any of us having dealt with a similar injury (in the ability to play through or time of recovery), etc.
When you asked your employer for that raise, were you literally the best in the world at what you do (from those available)? Were there multiple other organizations, in fact, direct competitors, looking to hire you and potentially paying you that amount?
My max duration for Kane is the duration left on McDavid’s contract…4 years. Ideally, 3 years.
Elite GM’ing is the art of performing the “undoable”
Not signing Kane is easy; Trading Nuge is hard.
Keeping both is “damn near” undoable.
Is trading Nuge hard? I don’t get how this player is above criticism with the fanbase. Still hasnt learned how to win a faceoff. Can’t score on this awesome powerplay. 22 EVP is nothing to write home about. I think Mcleod is ready to take over soon for much cheaper
Nuge has a NMC and just signed his retirement contract.
I can’t imagine he would waive for any trade.
The power play couldn’t score when Nugent-Hopkins was out with injury. The Oilers had a hard time winning games.
The main #1 unit, with Hyman and Bouch dropped from 13.91 G/60 to 10.96 without Nuge.
As an aside, it dropped to just over 6 G/60 without Barrie (with Nuge).
Bouchard shoots too much on the PP. I like his shot better than Barrie’s, but Bouchard will have to learn not to admire his own shot as much. Less will be more.
I’m confident that Bouch was coached to shoot lots on the PP. Yes, it may be a bit high at this point and, if so, that will come with coaching and experience.
Nuge has an NMC. Why do you think he wants to leave?
Wanting to leave and willing to be traded are 2 different things
Okay – why would he be willing to be traded? Nuge took quite a bit less in average salary on his contract not 12 months ago so he could play what is likely the remainder of his career here. I can’t even see Holland broaching the subject with him. He is classier than that. Any discussion of trading Nuge for the next several seasons is purely academic at this point. Same thing with Nurse. Even though there is a short window till his new deal kicks in, Holland won’t be trading him.