It’s been some time since Edmonton drafting overagers looked like a good idea, but I think we’re there now. I’m not sure the team will spend the first-rounder on one, but it might be an idea to add some later picks to the current group and chase these names later on.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: Oilers end-of-season takeaways
- Lowetide: Young Oilers players poised for bigger roles after playoff run
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
- Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
- Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
Overagers and the 2022 draft
I think it’s due to the pandemic, and could be wrong, but my guess is the overage group is going to get a workout at this year’s draft. There are several prospects who are on previous lists who would also qualify as overagers, but as they were ranked in the main groups.
- RC Tucker Robertson, OHL. 41 goals, speed, two-way ability.
- RC Ben King, WHL. 52 goals in 68 games.
- LC Theo Rochette, QMJHL. Undersized two-way center, intriguing offense.
- LW Jeremy Wilmer, USHL. August 2003, great passer, high skill.
- LD Samuel Mayer, OHL. Size, speed, two-way ability.
- RD David Spacek, QMJHL. Adam Sherren: Hard nosed and physical, can lay a heavy hit despite average size. He’s talented offensively and is something of a PP wizard.
- RD Jacob Guévin, USHL. Offensive defenseman, fine skater.
- RC Ryan Francis, QMJHL. Unsigned by Flames. Skill, plug-and-play AHL.
- LW Eric Alarie, WHL. Big skill winger.
- LW Arvid Sundin, SHL. Underzied burner has breathtaking shifts.
- RD Alex Cotton, WHL. Another re-entry, offensive defenseman.
- RW Nikita Grebyonkin, MHL. Skill and size plus some speed.
- RW Patrick Guay, QMJHL. Quick accurate shooter.
- LC Sami Päivärinta, Liiga. Small two-way center, fine playmaker.
- LD Vasily Machulin, MHL. Good size, dynamic skater, impressive player.
- G Brett Brochu, OHL. Quality goalie undersized.
- LD Yaroslav Busygin, VHL. Big blue who can hit, has some skill.
- LW Owen Pederson, WHL. Big winger with goal-scoring ability.
There are some fine players on this list, Edmonton would do well to grab at least one, and if there’s someone in the top 10 overall near the end of the draft, make a trade and grab him. The pandemic obscured talent.
THE 60 BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2022 DRAFT
- RC Shane Wright (OHL). Peter Harling (Dobber) compares to Patrice Bergeron.
- RC Matt Savoie (WHL). Scott Wheeler: Inside the offensive zone, he’s lethal.
- RD Simon Nemec (Slovak). A complete skill set, impressive WHC’s.
- LC Logan Cooley (USHL). Incredible skater, skilled and elusive. Dual threat.
- RW Joakim Kemell (Liiga). High skill, great shot, 15 goals in Liiga.
- RD David Jiricek (Czech). Solid two-way D, knee problem interrupted season.
- LW Juraj Slafkovsky (Liiga). Big skill winger who spiked during the season.
- LD Denton Mateychuk (WHL). Elite skater, complete range, impressive passer.
- RW Jonathan Lekkerimaki (Sweden). Skill winger with exceptional shot.
- LW Cutter Gauthier (USHL). Big W with outstanding shot and sixth sense for goals.
- LC Markus Kasper (Sweden). Range of skills, safe pick, can help on offense.
- RW Jagger Firkus (WHL). Quick, skilled, difficult to contain.
- RW Frank Nazar (USHL). Fast train, intelligent, creative, impressive offense.
- LD Pavel Mintyukov (OHL). Top-end skater, puck mover. Some chaos defensively.
- LW Isaac Howard (USHL). Fast release, creative, emerging.
- LD Kevin Korchinski (WHL). Two-way defender, mobile and smart.
- RW Danila Yurov (KHL). Great skater, high skill, aggressive, complete.
- LW Liam Ohgren (Sweden). Goal scorer had a strong season.
- RW Jordan Dumais (QMJHL). Undersized skill winger impressive playmaker.
- LW Brad Lambert (Liiga). Outstanding speed, range of skills, where are the goals?
- RC Conor Geekie (WHL). Best PF at the top end of the draft.
- LC David Goyette (OHL). Speedy center with skill and two-way ability.
- LW Jiri Kulich, (Czech). Skill winger who posted strong numbers this year.
- LC Servac Petrovsky (OHL). Aug. 2004, slick, skilled, does everything at high speed.
- LW Gleb Trikozov (MHL). Smart two-way winger with a great shot.
- RW Jimmy Snuggerud (USHL). Range of skills, scores from a variety of areas.
- LW Adam Sykora (Slovak). Impressive skill, one of the youngest players in the draft.
- LW Luca DelBelBelluz (OHL). Size, two-way ability, and an offensive spike.
- RW Filip Maser (Slovak). Speed demon, undersized and dynamic.
- LD Lian Bichsel (Sweden). Big, mobile defenseman with two-way skills.
- LC Rutger McGroarty (USHL). Skill C, shooter, great passer.
- LW Reid Schaefer (WHL). Impressive scoring winger spiked late.
- LW Ivan Miroshnichenko (VHL). Top end speed and skill. Much higher in normal year.
- LC Julian Lutz (DEL). High end skill, injured much of the season.
- RD Ty Nelson (OHL). Impressive offensive defensman.
- RC Owen Beck (OHL). Two-way C with plus skill.
- RD Elias Salomonsson (SHL). Effective two-way D.
- LC Daniil Zhilkin (OHL). Good wheels, two-way C. Safe pick.
- LD Lane Hutson (USHL). Small, dynamic offensive defenseman.
- RC Nathan Gauthier (QMJHL). Two-way center with size.
- LW Adam Ingram (USHL). Big winger with skill, quality passer.
- LW Mike Milne (WHL). Gritty winger with skill.
- RD Seamus Casey (USHL). Mobile offensive defenseman.
- LW Jani Nyman (Liiga). Big winger can score goals.
- LC Noah Ostlund (Swe U20). Two-way C, complete game.
- LC Theo Rochette (QMJHL). Adam Sherren: Rochette is a talented and creative player who was a key piece on a strong team and has had back to back seasons as a great offensive producer.
- LC Jack Hughes (NCAA). Rugged two-way C.
- RD Tristan Luneau (QMJHL). Big two-way defenseman has offensive potential.
- RC Tucker Robertson (OHL). Is strong and skilled, could be a steal.
- LC Cedrick Guindon (OHL). Undersized skill center.
- LW James Stefan (WHL). Impressive passing and scoring winger.
- RD Otto Salin (Liiga). Emerging offensive defenseman.
- LW Alexander Perevalov (MHL). Dynamic skill winger.
- RC Ben King (WHL). Overager spiked this year.
- RD Noah Warren (QMJHL). Effective shutdown defenseman.
- LC Filip Bystedt (SHL). Big (6.04, 205) C with passing skill.
- LW Viktor Neuchev (MHL). Fantastic shot.
- RC Pano Fimis (OHL). Responsible center with skill.
- LC Rieger Lorenz (AJHL). Big center with some passing skill.
- LW Jeremy Wilmer (USHL). Pure skill, elusive with the puck on his stick.
Edmonton has just one selection in the top 150, so will need to add some selections over the next three weeks. I expect the No. 29 selection will be dealt, Seattle and Phoenix are the teams will so many picks they can deal a few and not even notice. My list isn’t like other lists, so you’re looking at drafting Firkus (No. 12) or Dumais (No. 19) from my list at No. 29.
If they deal No. 29 to (say) Seattle for Nos. 49 and 99, you might see Julian Lutz and Theo Rochette added to Edmonton’s prospect pool.
How will the Oilers go? I think they’ll draft a defenseman with the first selection. Bet on Lian Bichsel, Tristan Luneau or Noah Warren. Don’t discount David Spacek as a later choice, Sherren paints a compelling picture above.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend with a strong group of guests and plenty of Oilers talk. Steve Lansky will discuss the playoff broadcasts and why some of the differences exist, Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will chat offseason deals, and Glen Suitor from TSN will tee up the CFL weekend. Golf, NBA, Oil Kings and more 10-2 today. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
I hope Holland holds on to the 1st and Noah Warren would be my target. 6’5” 220+ RHD. He has good skating, he hammers guys at the blueline and is a very good defender.
He has under rated, under utilized offense, where teammate Tristan Luneau (who IMO is a poor skater and an awful defender) gets all the PP time. I saw Warren as having a muffin shot, but he has wired a few goals in his highlights. The other thing is Luneau mentioned in an interview about Warren having an overpowering shot. Coming from an offense-first RHD, who has a decent shot of his own, that is very high praise.
Someone might even select him before #29, but he’d be my #1 choice at that spot. Number 2 would be Reid Schaefer, the kid has stuff to work on, but is 6’ 3” and has an absolutely wicked shot, might be the best in the draft. A local boy, he could also go before #29.
I think both these young men have loads of potential and incredible ceilings. Neither of them aren’t just big, they have tons of ability and room for growth.
Makar is going to win the Conn Smythe right?
Wonder if that will pick Nathan’s bum a little bit?
Why do you want to mention McKinnon, after he targeted and deliberately TKO’d Draisaitl and RNH?
Then if he wins his first cup you honestly think he will give a fuck?
yes he would. He seems like the exact person that would not take kindly to being the second best on his team
I’m watching the Super Rugby (think NHL of rugby) semi final between two of the best clubs in New Zealand. The weather is a distinct advantage to the Crusaders for the first half. Heavy winds and rain The Crusaders earn an attacking lineout and throw over the top the flanker mishandles the ball during the catch, he slips and receives a shoulder to the head. The referees review, remember in rugby they have a conversation between the ref, touch judges and TMO (televsion match official) for all to hear.
They go through the process.
Was there head contact? “Yes”
Was there foul play? “Yes”
What is the degree of danger? “It was avoidable. Tackler didn’t lower hips when entering tackle”
Is there any mitigation? “The flanker slipped just before and had a rapid drop in position”
All of these things were said during the broadcast. It took less than 60seconds.
The decision was a yellow card instead of a red card. A conversation between the Captain and the ref takes place. Again you hear it all. And in under two minutes from the time of the incident the Crusaders have kicked a penalty and are now playing up a man for 10mins.
Rugby is an upper class game through and through and the upper class adhere to authority like water off a ducks back.
Hockey is nothing very much like that in its origins.
I’d really like a right shot left winger with slick one-timer skillz sitting there for Drai’s thick, saucy backhand passes. Fuck that McDavid character, he can do it himself. I’m willing to wait for Bourgault, but this had better not take long.
I’d also try Nuge on Drai’s right wing, I shit thee not. Because reasons.
Carter Savoie – miles away though, if ever.
I think the X-man is closer, to tell you the truth.
Depends on D commitment and stops and starts and a host of things, of course, but Bourg’s hockey brain level is clearly higher. better skater. I think he gets there first. They’re both starting pro at the same time…
Lol, I know you know all of this. Bourg is going to resonate higher in the line up and quicker, no?
Gotta agree with that (and also, if Savoie is going to be something worth talking about, we’re probably not miles away from finding out).
Oh, I have no doubt about that.
I expect Bourgault is going to be a big player in the AHL next year whereas Savoie may have a Maksimov like start.
I agree. I see some wandering ahead for Savoie too. I think he is going to have to re-invent his game somewhat for the NHL.
Oilers have some up and coming prospects hopefully they don’t end up injured like so many Oilers prospects.
Okay, finally got caught up. Sorry, I get up to speed like a 1977 Mercury Marquis.But the radio worked and now I’ve heard Bob’s show.
I don’t know if it was mentioned below (I didn’t see it ) but Stauffer confirmed with the Oilers that JP doesn’t need surgery and 4-5 weeks is the recovery. Also both Spector and Stauffer doubled-down on re-signing Pujo, thinking the contract should come in under $2M and he deserved another year.
He mentioned three names today. All of whom are, of course, lightning rods, lol.
John Gibson – is he available, cost?
Josh Anderson – someone like him if Kane isn’t available
Dylan Strome – looking like he won’t be re-signed
Apparently almost everyone in Chicago is open for discussion outside of Toews, Kane and Jones. Dach too, but I imagine the cost is ridiculous. And then of course, speaking of lighting rods there is Debrincat.
Stauffer is clearly spitballing here as not all of these things can happen simultaneously in the same universe. Here are my thoughts (remember, Mercury Marquis, land yacht)
John Gibson. Costs assets. Bob thinking three or four. People out there love his game, say he’s better than the team. He’s young. His contract is pricey and he will cost to get. Personally I would prefer Holtby. He’s been the distance and he costs zip to acquire while likely not costing as much in salary.
Josh Anderson. Elliotte refuted Bob with the exact same argument I’ve been making here for days. There’s too many quality wingers and someone is going to get squeezed. A value deal can be got without giving up assets.
Dylan Strome.This was actually raised by Friedman and Bob was all over it. Obviously there’s a potential for a value deal there especially in the short term. and that raises another question…
Would you rather McDavid had a constantly rotating corps of quality wingers on cheaper short term deals, or one perfect fit on a longer-term market value deal?
Could come at this both ways and I’m not sure which way is necessarily better.
I hate (no, HATE) both the Gibson and Holtby suggestions. I’d strongly prefer Mike Smith for another spin over Gibson (for 3-4 assets and 5 x $6.4M) or Holtby (same money as Smith). And if Smith can’t go, there are many other avenues I’d prefer over Gibson/Holtby.
Otherwise I agree, and thank’s very much for passing this stuff on.
Why you no like Holtby?
Mostly (entirely) his track record – .897 and .889 SV% the 2 years before this one.
His .913 SV% this year was his best since 16-17 (and this year was still worse, in fewer games, than Mike Smith).
I don’t actually disagree. I’m going off Spec surmising that Smith himself no longer believes he’s a number one goalie and he might not be back.
The most economical situation is to stick with Smith. No doubt. But Holland might be forced to go get one. So do you make a play for Varly or Gibson or sign Holtby as a stop gap till Skinner can be the guy?
I mean really the deal here is Barrie for Varly and I’m assuming the reason people aren’t talking about it is trade clauses. I do think Finals appearances changes things though.
Yeah, that kind of thing makes a lot of sense.
Even if that’s not an option, I don’t believe Holtby is the right play. I know he’s done good thing in the past, but my god, he’s been somewhere between average and terribly awful for the last 5 years.
Make a play for Reimer as the stop gap…..
I like him but he has the same problem as Varly and Talbot. Can’t play 50+ games. I don’t think they want to give Skinner a bigger load than that. That is the advantage that Gibson and Holtby have… they’ve handled bigger workloads better in the past.
No one is getting used like that today though (other than Gibson in the .903 range), so JP has a point. Why do we want to?
I’d add Talbot to that list of stopgap solutions
Depending on what Fleury decides to do Minnesota may want a more economical back up goalie (Talbot is $3.6M for 1 more year)
The buyouts really start to bite this year ($12.7M in dead cap space)
Absolutely.
Of the options mentioned I’d be in favour of Talbot > Reimer > Holtby.
Munny raises a good point about workload, but I can’t get past 2 of 3 seasons under .900 for Holtby.
Yeah, you’d have to pack a lunch to convince me Holtby is the answer
The acquisition cost of Gibson scares me, and the contract
Yup. I won’t be packing a lunch, and am terrified of both.
One of the voodoo questions is… can goalies change/improve thir game and how much? If a tree falls in the forest…. is there someone on the pro-scouting squad who can hear it happen? Department of Goalie is coming to a team near everyone I’m thinking, at some point in the future.
Although one thing I’m grateful of is that Holland is a former goalie. I’m hoping this is like Lowe and defenceman. Please be true lol.
Agree that if someone, somewhere, can decode whether it’s more team or more goaltender (with Holtby to an extent, but much more so with Gibson), that would be a big deal.
Interesting thought about Holland as a former goaltender. I guess it’s possible that could also inform the voodoo side as much as the Lowe/defensemen side (which would still be useful, if correct).
The thought occurred to me because of talk of Smith’s game being re-invigorated by a summer session with a goalie coach (Francois Allaire?) And then the media were all over Murray’s game and his re-dedication when he came back from his voluntary stint in the minors. I see the bounce in Holtby’s numbers and I wonder why.
And I’m not saying that bounce is reason to invest in him, just that it would be nice if there was a guy somewhere working for the team that knew these kinds of things by watching him play. There’s no doubt in my mind that we as fans are poor judges when watching goalies.
Yeah, no question a few tweaks can often change a goalie’s game. Probably most managers and scouts are poor judges of those tools/techniques like fans are (your point). So yes, hopefully Holland and/or others in the org have a decent eye for that stuff.
According to David Pagnotta the New Jersey Devils, Los Angeles Kings, New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers have all shown interest in Alex DeBrincat up to this point. Also notes that the 2nd overall pick might be in play for Cat
https://www.thefourthperiod.com/jun-2022/hawks-gauging-trade-interest-in-debrincat#.YqODZTGiQOk.twitter
I’ve seen some on social media suggest that Smith retire and become the goalie coach. Can you honestly imagine that?!
Not really sure a highly unorthodox goalie should be grooming future goalies.
I hope Edm grabs
DELBELBELLUZ on name alone …
I would be fine with Josh Anderson if bad contracts were leaving.
For example, I would be in favour of
Josh Anderson, one of Montreal’s 3rd round picks, and one of Montreal’s 4th round picks.
For
Kassian and Barrie.
It means no Kane, of course. Maybe add Jake Allen and Mike Smith to the deal.
Maybe something like
Anderson, Allen, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 4th for Kassian, Barrie, and the 1st (plus Smith if he doesn’t retire).
5 years of bad contract for 2 years of bad Kassian I would not do
Barrie has some value
Anderson is a decent hockey player. If one is getting rid of Barrie and Kassian for him, he contract is not a problem during the remainder of McDavid’s current contract.
Anderson, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, eventually Bourgault is a decent right side.
And one might be able to get both Anderson and Allen in the same deal. Solve multiple problems with a reasonable solution in one go.
Just as we are almost out from under the Lucic contract, we take on another almost as debilitating.
Josh Green was also big a fast and could shoot. Same with Brad Isbister. Ooooh, Chad Kilger too.
I’ve been crying for Josh Anderson for years, if your going to War I want Josh Anderson on my flank. I’ll bet anyone he scores 30 plus, could you imagine how fast that line would be with Anderson opening up ice for Connor.
Worse then it was with Kane. Mainly because he’s a much inferior hockey player.
Another important consideration is that Anderson is also almost 3 years younger than Kane.
If Kane’s next deal starts with a 7 and has more than 3 years attached, any difference in performance will likely be mitigated by the higher risks that come with Kane.
Any comparison with players like Josh Green et al are just ridiculous.
Talking about ridiculous… There is a guy who compared Draisaitl to Joe Colborne and said he wouldn’t trade Rafferty for Bouchard :)… Yeah I know, nuts right ?
Anderson at that cap hit is brutal. He doesn’t have upside.
I know you’re getting negged, but I’d bet money MTL’s ask is quite a bit higher than that for Anderson (whom they value). Although I realize you’re only stating your line in the sand. Just saying I think it’s a tad optimistic.
Edit:
Ie. the conversation starts with Bourgault.
The only worry of Josh is injury when he’s healthy Josh is able to bulldoze his way all over the ice like a poor man’s Lindros.
Is injury the same worry with Kane?
Yes. He’s going to be 31 to start the year there has to be some hard miles on him. If SanJose is paying for part of his salary I’m running to ball point pen store to sign him immediately. I just hope Holland doesn’t cripple ourselves if he signs for 7×5. We need a Goalie I can’t take another year of Mike flopping all over the place.
I’m not interested in Anderson unless Kassian is in the deal and Bourgault isn’t. My interest is pretty conditional.
I am willing to take on the duration risk on Anderson if Montreal gives me cap relief by taking Kassian.
No way a deal gets made then. If Anderson is available there are others far more interested than you.
Dallas has traded Ben Bishop and his $4.9 million cap hit to Buffalo for future considerations.
Bishop is not expected to play again.
Klefbom?
Klefbom’s deal wasn’t insured, apparently.
Also just noticed his contract was backloaded with $5.1 million payable next season.
Much harder to move.
How does an organization not do that in a Cap world?
The Oilers may not have been able to insure the contract
Klefbom’s injury history pre dates him joining the NHL, perhaps there wasn’t an insurer that wanted to risk underwriting the length of that deal
It’s all just speculation though, we’re not even sure if the contract is/isn’t insured
He was made of glass, who in their right mind would insure Oscar.
Dallas also sent a 2022 7th round pick to the Sabres.
The bloom is off the rose for Holland despite the conference final appearance and it’s quite clear that significant mistakes will yet again be made in player procurement.
Last season Ethan Bear paid the piper; this season, it’s Jesse Puljujarvi.
Why in the world did you trade for Keith knowing you have to renew Yamo and JP? Barrie? Why didn’t you dump Kassian for nothing when the opp was there last season?
Holland’s ineptitude has the unfortunate side effect of driving further lunacy.
The Josh Anderson talk is so stupid that I’d say there’s a 90 percent chance of it happening.
Why would you trade for Anderson when JP is available for just money
Well if i was able I would insert JP video going for a one timer, missing, then falling over. And then a quick video of Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, ….over and over.
But I say that for fun. Jessie can hold a spot, but we also need to get better on right wing.
He wasn’t even close that’s the definition of a malfunction at the junction
Yes. And less money. And much more upside (JP, that is).
It is not either/or, but both.
Hyman McDavid Anderson
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Yamamoto
Foegele, McLeod, Puljujarvi
Holloway Ryan XXX
Shore Malone
Nurse Ceci
Kulak Bouchard
Keith Broberg
Samorukov
Allen/Skinner
Anderson/Allen/picks for Kassian/Barrie/picks/Smith(if he doesn’t retire).
Because Josh is a power forward with hands. What exactly is the description of Jesse?
Jesse is the guy that, while being four years younger, produced more points in less games and doesn’t have an anchor contract.
So why does a bushel full of the media think he’s getting traded.
because he might be? I don’t know.
Doesn’t really have anything to do with Anderson’s awful contract.
I want Holland gone as much as the next person, but so much meh narrative here.
Trading Ethan Bear had zero impact on the team this year. And if we want him next year, we could probably get him for under $2 mill. But he was not a fit here this season and he won’t be next season.
We have no idea if JP is being traded. And if he is traded, maybe Holland gets value in the trade.
I don’t get any of the narratives about Barrie. He has a value contract, which will be borne out when he is traded for assets.
Josh Anderson chatter is idle speculation by Stauffer. It means nothing. And if we do trade for him, it might not be such as bad move. He scored 19 goals on a team whose best centre would play on our third line. Which is the worse contact? Anderson at $5.5 mill until he’s 33 or Kane at $7 mill until he 37?
Holland should be fired because he failed to address goaltending. He decided to go into the playoffs with a backup goalie no one trusted, when he could have traded him for another backup.
Well if you’re trying to win now — and you haven’t detonated a bomb on your cap space — Kane at 7 is a much better value than Anderson at 5.5 because Kane is one of the best LW in the game and Anderson is not.
$4.5 million for an offense only 3rd pairing D is NOT a value contract.
Are you saying Barrie can’t be traded? Because he will be, and we will get assets in return.
The bloom is off the rose because you project future mistakes?
Let me guess, you were one that threw vitriol at Holland based off of Rishaug speculating that the Yotes would want one of Broberg or Bouchard in an OEL trade and basically treated that as done by Holland?
Dear OP,
You know me well, but not well enough. Yes, I derided any talk of OEL for Bouchard/Broberg, same as I did for Chychrun. Why? Because I was/am bullish on both. I believe that I have been proven to be correct on both counts with Bouchard, and I guess we’ll see with Broberg.
I also threw vitriol at Holland for the Keith trade, and from a cap planning perspective alone that trade was idiotic.
Holland blew his wad last year on Keith and said himself the team he built couldn’t compete with COL.
So. No I don’t trust him.
The team that Sakic had two years ago couldn’t compete with this years COL.
Where are we compared to last season?
I think you missed the point of my post.
It wasn’t criticizing trading Bouch or Broberg for OEL – it has criticizing Holland for something he hasn’t done and something that isn’t even realistically rumoured to be true.
You are already pre-criticizing Holland for this off-season and starting with Josh Anderson.
If we can’t sign Kane Josh will be patrolling Connor’s wing and scoring 30 plus.
Ya, 30 points or so – that’s his ballpark – 65 games, 35 points.
Holland’s record is hit and miss (he’s had some successes for sure), and when stuff comes from the organizational mouthpiece I perk up.
It just occurred to me that Pat Maroon is gunning for his 4th Ring. That’s amazing for Pat who does his job well. Where would we be if we didn’t chase Lucic because we already had a better version of him already.
Looking back at the Av’s series what a blown opportunity every shot on Smith was a adventure. I do believe with above average stable Goaltending we could of run and gunned the Av’s with their back-up in play.
What’s our “wall o’text/60” at today?
The important question is… is it higher than the xWoT/60?
😉
Id like to see Holland aggressively free up dollars. And to see Kane test the market.
With total dollars available it would be appropriate to see how team improvement could be maximized.
I would like to see Kane back, but Oilers will still score goals. Perhaps improvement should go into:
Goalie
Defenseman
Build out an outscoring third line.
Agreed.
The only time to address the goalie position is in the offseason, it would appear. Assuming they move on from Barrie, another vet RD would be a sooner-than-later priority.
The Lightning, Rangers, and Avs all added depth wingers (Hagel, Copp, Lehkonen) at the deadline.
Now if only we had 2nd round picks to deal …
I don’t think the only time to get a goalie is during the off season. It’s the only time to get a UFA goalie. You can trade in-season for a goalie no problem. In fact, if you want Gibson, for instance, the acquisition cost could possibly drop in-season. Maybe, maybe not.
If we don’t sign Kane Holland needs to wait until the second day of free agency and go dumpster diving. There’s always a couple of gems that are available on the cheap after the overpriced day one is over.
The risk is Holland bids against himself to sign Kane. The other is that there is actually a 7M offer out there awaiting Kane. I don’t think there is and Holland is in a stronger position once Kanes agent tests the market.
If he does Kane a 7M contract well thats good for him. we use the money to get better in other places.
Oilers will score. But they will also be scored upon. We can affect both sides of that ledger to get better.
And then there is Kane’s unsettled contract. How do you go into a long term contract with that hanging? And that he might be deemed property of the sharks.
If he is deemed property of the Sharks, Kane has the hammer. There is NO WAY the Sharks want him back.. they tried to void his contract hence this grievance in the first place.
Kane has a modified No Trade, he gets to submit a three team clear list of who he wants to be traded to. Depending on the interpretation of last season in the ruling, he is either owed a top up to 7M for last year in a buyout plus 2/3 of his remaining (3 yrs) spread over six years – top up of 5.625 for last year plus 14M spread over six years – or if last year is deemed part of the buyout calculation, 2/3 of 28M spread over last year and the next 7 years for a total of 8 years – so 18.667M due as 2.333M due for last year and 16.334M due over the next 7 years, an ongoing cap hit of either 2.333M for 6 years or 2.333M for 7 years, as the case may be. There may also be some adjustment for the calculated cap hit to allow for the top up due for last year if he wins as well, which could be a few hundred thousand a year for each year of the term of the buyout, but the costs are clear and long term.
So, if San Jose retains his rights they will want to trade him to avoid the dead cap. Kane would be under contract for three more years to whoever trades for him for 7M per as stated in his disputed contract. He gets the same wherever he goes so money is out of the question as a factor for him until this deal expires in three years. Other factors such as hi feelings about the team, the organization, his family’s input will hold sway. If he really likes Edmonton and wants to be here, certerus parabis, he simply submits his 3 team list that includes Edmonton and two other non viable destinations such as teams too tight against the cap to pursue him. Edmonton’s leverage should result in salary being retained to make this a slam dunk for both teams. Say 2M retained by SJ per year – slightly less than the annual buyout cost and for half the term – saves SJ 7M total vs the buyout and shortens the dead cap hit term. Edmonton gets him for a three year term at a net of 5M per, a good deal that avoids having to offer an uncomfortable amount of term to sign him and at a price point slightly less than Zach Hyman. All good.
Edmonton happy, Kane happy and gets to move on in a favorable situation, Sharks dodge an appreciable portion of Cap Hell. Win Win Win I think.
San Jose retaining his rights is the most preferable situation for us, I think. Gets Kane at a favorable term and price and avoids a possible bidding war on the open market.
Winchester happy.
Great info!
One of my favourite phrases, so thank you for using it. Just a heads up though, it’s spelled ceteris paribus.
Thanks for the correction. It has been a looooong time since my Econ classes and this is the first time I have had a chance to use that phrase in decades. They say when you memory goes… forget it.
Econ is the only place I ever see it, lol. But I read a lot of Econ. A brilliant man who passed away last autumn used it a lot.
Lets not forget the majority of NHL teams were not interested in Kane at 2M and no acquisition cost.
What has changed?
He scored at pace with Connor McDavid. Hmmm
His character has been reestablished via the well respected Edmonton Oilers? Hmmmm
There is no way you can convince me there are teams out there who are willing to go high in salary or term. Show me an offer at 7M – not happening.
I think this has been said before – it only takes one GM to drive up the price.
He scored at pace with Connor McDavid. Hmmm
His character has been reestablished via the well respected Edmonton Oilers? Hmmm.
There’s 2 CoH article titles for David Staples.
if we want to know who Holland will select, we just have to ask him.
Lol, pretty sure Bourgault was a surprise to absolutely everyone.
Yeah, okay, okay. But did anyone ask Ken?
Haha, I don’t know!
Probably to Holland too, since everyone and their dog expected us to go for Cossa until we got Yzermaned.
We discuss cap, contracts and money a lot on this blog, but I’m not sure we’ve gotten down to brass tacks on the one factor that is truly creating competitive advantage for specific organizations. That factor is player greed and what can be done to best mitigate it so you can build out your roster to the optimal extent.
Consider this, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have both won championships recently with rosters that were significantly more talent laden than the norm. Florida has no state income tax. That gives these teams a massive advantage being able to pay players at less than market value from a cap perspective while still enabling the player to derive market value compensation at the net level.
Another factor that creates competitive advantage is the willingness of superstar players to minimize their cap hits by maximizing team bonus incentives in their contract, deferring earnings, or maximizing endorsement revenues to make up for shortfalls in guaranteed monies. The poster boy for this is Tom Brady. Widely acknowledged as the GOAT in his sport, Brady has almost never been one of the top 3 highest paid QBs in the NFL and in fact, regularly sits outside the top 5 in base guarantees. Brady plays the long game, giving up money personally in the short term so his team can field a better roster knowing that if/when his team wins championships, he’ll get the benjamins on the backend with increased endorsements and off field investments like his TB12 performance training business. Contrast this with Aaron Rodgers who is arguably a more talented QB than Brady and regularly ranks as the highest paid pivot in the league. Rodgers’ greed compromises his team’s ability to field a more competitive roster. As a result, he has 1 Lombardi to his credit to Brady’s 7, despite Rodgers winning more regular season MVP awards than Brady (4 to 3).
Next season, the Oilers core of McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse will have a collective cap hit of $30,250,000, comprising 36% of the total $82,5M cap. This has become the norm in the NHL now where a handful of elite players can command as much as 50% of your total cap. What this situation creates is two clear dependencies, 1) Each and every one of your largest cap hit players HAVE to be elite performers, and 2) The rest of your roster must be turned over regularly and must be extremely cap efficient with value contracts throughout.
The Oilers are failing on both fronts. Keith and RNH have the 4th (tied) and 5th highest cap hits on the Oilers and neither are elite players at their position. Contrast this with the Lightning where Hedman and Stamkos are the 4th & 5th highest cap hits on the team OR the Avalanche where MacKinnon is the 4th highest cap hit and Johnson the 5th, and finally the Rangers where Trouba and Kreider round out the Top 5 with Shesterkin at 6! This situation looks even worse if you consider Nurse (Oilers 3rd highest cap hit) to be a non elite defenceman and he’s certainly not Hedman or Makar.
One way to rectify this asap is to swap out one or both of RNH and Keith for Kane, who has certainly provided elite production during his tenure as an Oiler.
The rest of the roster this season boasted its share of non value contracts incl. Kassian, Koskinen, Barrie, etc. and this is well trodden ground that this community has discussed ad infinitum.
At the time of their signings, none of McDavid, Draisaitl or Nurse took less than the market warranted. It’s 100% their right to maximize their individual earnings and in the case of both Draisaitl and Nurse, it can be argued that both contracts were over market value by a considerable margin. Luckily Leon has outperformed his hit by a significant margin but luck doesn’t validate poor process. Even with a different GM, the poor contract negotiation has now continued with the Nurse deal and it’s doubtful the Oilers will get lucky with this one. The same holds true with the RNH contract where a 3C has the 5th highest hit on the roster with a NMC to boot.
It’s pretty simple. If the top 5 players on your team are greedy (negotiating contracts that set the market) and/or they are not elite level players at their position, this is going to present a substantial obstacle for winning Cups. Combine this with an inability to turn over the rest of the roster while adding value contracts throughout and your fate even with two generational talents is likely being a ‘very good but not great’ team.
Clearly Daryl Katz should build a housing development, have all players move in there and declare it an independent fiefdom from Alberta.
Inaccurate to a degree. McDavid could have held out for the Max allowable as he is clearly the best in the league, but signed for less to allow for building a team around him. Check the media avails from both him and Ken Holland after his signing, they explicitly state this.
As for Nurse, WHEN they sign affects the dollars as much as anything else. WE were in a tight cap situation re his bridge deals and used the money at the time to fill out other parts of the roster. Nurse agreed to this rather than go for max dollars and term at the time of his bridge deals, which he most certainly would have done if he were a greedy player under your definition. Eventually, the birds came home to roost and the piper had to be paid. The market at that time dictated the range of his salary on his current deal. It is often quoted how much less some other , more elite defensemen are making in comparison, but it is best to remember they signed at other times with different cap limits and at potentially different points in their career development, so a direct comparison is flawed. Darnell got fair value for a player of his skill and age AT THE TIME OF HIS SIGNING. If Ekblad for example were signing a new deal at the same time and at the same age etc, he would have signed for more than his last deal was.
A good indication of when a player is setting the market with his contract is whether that contract would be used by other player agents as a favourable comp. We know that Leon leveraged Connor’s deal during their somewhat concurrent negotiations and going forward it’s certain that players like Eichel, Matthews and MacKinnon would/will reference the McDavid contract in their negotiations. Similarity if I’m a minute munching Dman that doesn’t QB a PP, the Nurse cap hit would be my go to comp in contract negotiations. Nurse has undoubtedly set the market for non elite offensive D.
Bottom line, the Oilers do not have value contracts amongst their 3-5 highest cap hits and that is a significant issue vs their top competitors, an issue compounded by the fact that none of these players are elite performers at this time.
Well, this all depends on how one defines ‘value’ – the athletic, I think it was that Dom guy again, had an article using WAR / $ spent as a value measure and, by that metric, #97 had the best value contract in the league! He may earn a lot but the ceiling is very very high. 29’s contract is ‘value’, too.
Problem is its still a lot of $ in a stagnant cap world.
Seth Jones’ contract set the market for Nurse.
Or Heiskanen.
A situation that could have easily been avoided by not bridging Nurse earlier. Again, I’m not terribly interested in the route taken to get to this mess. That ship has sailed. The goal is to identify actual best practices of the elites so the team can recognize this structure and adjust accordingly.
You’re going to see a LOT of arguments in the coming weeks for RNH vs Kane and this analysis is relevant to that debate.
McDavid could have held out for the max, 20%, but that would have been entirely out of the realm of reasonableness vis-a-vis the market.
He was arguably the best player in the league, and was almost assuredly going to be the best in the league over the term of that contract, however, he did become the highest paid player in the league with an AAV of $2MM more than the previous high.
He got paid in full, as the best player in the league.
A couple of points here.
1) Nuge is the #6 cap hit on the Oilers (you skipped over Hyman).
2) You’re taking the Oilers to task for the Draisaitl deal being ‘over market’ at the time it was signed, but at the same time holding MacKinnon’s deal up as efficiency because it’s value today. Yet MacKinnon’s deal wasn’t any better market value on the day it was signed (MacKinnon had 63, 38 and 52 point seasons leading to the 7 x $6.3M deal, Draisaitl 51 and 77 in his two full seasons leading to his 8 x $8.5M deal).
I accurately quantified two Oilers as tied for the 4th highest cap hit.
The big picture point isn’t parsing individual contracts but rather the overarching salary/cap structure at the top end of the roster that elite teams have.
Yes, but Nuge is the 6th highest cap hit on the team. Hyman/Keith are #4 and #5. Agreed it doesn’t make much difference to the argument.
Sure. Though I think the top 5 on EDM vs. COL are a hell of a lot closer in efficiency once MacKinnon is on his next deal. COL is reaching the end of their peak efficiency window (not that they won’t remain an excellent team, but it’s literally all downhill in terms of efficiency from the end of this season onward).
Not sure I agree with your final point.
While Sakic signed Rantanen to a deserved $9.25 million deal, he also got Landeskog to come back for a bargain $7 million.
He signed both Toews and Girard to contracts well below market value.
Of course the attention will now to turn to Kadri and MacKinnon but it wouldn’t surprise me if both sign extensions below market value to keep the band together.
That Sakic built this roster without incurring any dead cap space is also remarkable in that it provides him with flexibility that many teams don’t have.
Draisaitl fully lived up to his contract in year 1, and became an extreme bargain since year 2.
Draisaitl was not over market. It was market value at the time he signed it. One could look at the weighted cap hit for all comparable centres for the eight years as a percentage of the cap at signing, at it was smack dab at $8.5 million.
A third point:
3) You’re holding up Hedman/Stamkos (fair) and MacKinnon (fair)/Johnson (less fair) as elite players at their positions, in contrast to Keith/Nuge.
My only quibble here is the Johnson = pass vs. Keith = fail.
Salary
Johnson $6M
Keith $5.5M
Points
Johnson 25 in 77GP
Keith 21 in 64GP
TOI
Johnson 17:17/game
Keith 19:43/game
GF%
Johnson 57.6% (+0.50 rel)
Keith 57.8% (+10.13 rel)
SF%
Johnson 50.8% (-2.31 rel)
Keith 51.4% (+0.29 rel)
xGF%
Johnson 50.5% (-2.07 rel)
Keith 50.7% (-0.98 rel)
Objectively, Keith performed better than Johnson, while also having a bit lower cap hit.
I’m actually being more forgiving to the Oilers by restricting the scope to top 5 biggest cap hits. If you widen the lens to 6-8, they suffer even more from a cap efficiency pov vs the elite teams.
Keith (Conn Smythe/Norris) and Johnson (former 1OV pick) are what i would term legacy contracts. Their level has essentially been set based on past performance. Every team has 1 or 2 of these. The key is having value contracts around them or the term not being punitive.
No offense but you seem really invested in nitpicking the details of individual players or contracts. Imo that’s actually counterproductive when you’re trying to articulate a big picture longterm strategy. Look long enough and you’ll always find outliers. The goal of the exercise is to define the best practice commonalities not the exceptions.
I am nitpicking (multiple) details, but given there’s multiple of them I think they’re important to the discussion.
I appreciate the big picture strategy, I just don’t agree things are as close to black and white as you’re painting them. (again, crediting the MacKinnon value deal while criticizing the process of the Draisaitl value deal isn’t fair IMO).
I’m just not sure that’s true.
Colorado and TBay are currently the standards for cap efficiency in the NHL. TB has done an excellent job getting their players on good deals and continuing to stay at the top even with players pricing themselves off the team each year. As you noted they’re helped by having a tax advantage over most teams, but there also seems to be buy-in from their stars in signing those deals.
Colorado has also done wonderfully as well, no question. Things do get much much harder for them next month though. Hopefully they can get their cup before then.
Going beyond that though, sorry I don’t see how the Rangers are in this conversation. Trouba is at $8M is neither an elite player or a value contract. And they’re in a world of hurt this summer with $69M committed to 14 players with Strome, Copp, Kakko, Vatrano, Braun and Georgev etc. unsigned. Likewise the rest of the league. I don’t see the Oilers in a worse spot, even relative to most of the elite teams.
It looks a little different when you take that 21/2 minutes per game extra Keith played.
Johnson was effectively 3rd pairing while Keith was 2nd.
P/60
Johnson 1.1.27
Keith .998
One would expect if Johnson had been playing higher in the lineup he would have been a beneficiary of much better team mates.
I don’t think Johnson playing 3rd pair strengthens the argument for him being elite, or a value contract.
He is no longer elite but given the makeup of Colorado’s D 3rd pairing is all but a given.
On many teams, he would be 1st pairing and a good one.
As B of P has mentioned, it’s a legacy contract, so the value has diminished over time although I have little doubt it would be efficient under different circumstances.
The best argument for the Johnson contract is that Sakic has so many contract efficiencies elsewhere, he can retain a lower value contract as a depth player without it being punitive. From that perspective. Johnson doesn’t encapsulate the strategy. Rather it demonstrates how rigorous efficiencies elsewhere can help to overcome the scant inefficiencies. Contrast this to Nurse and Keith where those contracts are essentially immovable from the get go. Edmonton is not just failing to avoid these inefficiencies. They’re actively courting them.
Yeah. I don’t think Sakic has kept Johnson because he wants to.
Pretty sure he’d rather have kept Saad or Graves, but the immovable contract prevented that.
In your second paragraph you claim that states with a low tax burden have a massive advantage. This should lead to more championships. How do the California teams do it then? California is a state with a high tax burden, yet in the past dozen years there have been a dozen championships won by teams residing in Cali: Warriors 3, SF Giants 3, Dodgers 1, Rams 1, Lakers 2, LA Kings 2. Maybe taxes don’t have as big an impact as some might assume.
The tax stuff is clearly a huge advantage. The team has an extra 5-10% to work with. Especially compared to Montreal.
that’s an extra high end play driver for the third line, or two capable third liners.
everyone keeps talking about how Tampa keeps trying to recreate their third line… it’s like have a third line is crucial.
obviously they are doing a lot of other good stuff too but the taxes help a ton.
there was a lot made about marner and point’s contracts being a similar pay cheque week to week, after taxes, though marner’s cap hit is much higher.
that’s, at the very least, not fair.
It’s also desirability of the market for quality of life and endorsement potential. And Cali has a LOT of teams. The law of big numbers starts to factor in.
If you’re making lux wages, California is definitely a magnet. Housing affordability in Edmonton means little to someone making $8M per imho.
RE: Evander Kane.
One factor I don’t see considered in assessing his situation is his bankruptcy proceedings. As a former accountant, I have some exposure to basic Canadian Consumer bankruptcy outcomes, but the fact he is filing in USA and the size and complexity of his case is a different kettle of fish.
His contract will be less about what he makes, and more about how much he has left. How much does he owe? How long will his creditors wait for their payment, either in full or at a negotiated reduction? He might come out better on a three year deal if that allows him to conclude his financial obligations during that contract and be free and clear on his next deal.
Reportedly he owes 47 creditors a total of approximately 27 million. If he wins his grievance, he is owed something like 5.625 million for last year(I didn’t look up the exact numbers yet).. the difference between his SJ contract due for the year and what the Oilers paid him. If that went against his tab it brings it down to 21.375 plus his legal expenses.
His remaining contract. should he win arbitration, is for actual cash of 19 million over the next three years. He might be looking at either that contract and term being upheld as the minimum he will receive for the next three years before taxes. It is also his max if the contract is terminated and he signs at 7million/yr or less with someone other than SJ, as SJ will have to make up the difference. Staying at that term, it might be argued that any future contract extension beyond that time is risky to consider in the settlement from a creditor point of view, and they may be willing to settle for a reduced amount of repayment based on that time frame. His actual net pay will be whatever the courts allow as exempted income after taxes regardless of any amount of his settlement. Thus he he is done and free and clear at the end of the three years and can bank his whole future contract after that point. A longer deal means he may have to live under a reduced take home pay for longer, matching the time frame of repayment to his contract length. In the end, a longer deal for similar money may not be doing him any favors.
A lot of this is predicated on the mindset of 47 creditors and their patience for repayment, Kane’s income requirements to maintain his professional skills, his tax implications and the needs of his family, among other factors. It is not as simple as the most money for the longest time for him. The totality of all the factors and parties involved would melt most people’s brains!
This is going to be interesting.
If I’m Ken Holland, I’m using the bosses connections to retain the advice of an experienced high end bankruptcy attorney well schooled in American large scale bankruptcies to inform his strategy and offers to Kane. Show Kane we are considering the totality of his situation and allow us to make the best strategic offers as well. This could well be one of the most complex negotiations of Holland’s career.
So everybody now believes he is of good character, or is that not important?
This is not a discussion of character. Only a discussion of the contract complexities surrounding a possible offer, which most believe is forthcoming. Please stay on topic. It’s a thing.
He does the hardest thing to do in Hockey he scores plus he hits and fights which makes him a power forward. In his personal life he may be a compulsive bad gambler but that doesn’t make him a abusive felon.
Depends. Here in the US if he filed Chapter 7 all of his debts may already be discharged.
It is my understanding they have not. He my also refile under a different Chapter, depending on his advisor’s strategy, such as Chapter 11. The Chapter 7 filing is possibly a strategy to halt collection actions and interest accrual and allow his representative to present settlement proposals to the 47 creditors involved as a group. I suspect any settlement would require 50.1% approval of the creditors, based on the amount of money owed. That is, whoever is owed the most might sway the outcome the most.
As a creditor, I wouldn’t accept anything other than full repayment on an acceptable schedule until the San Jose grievance is concluded and any new contract is signed. Once all parties know the lay of the land in this way, expect a resolution reasonably quickly. I would expect his representative has a good read on what the individual creditors are each willing to accept and how long they are willing to wait for payment.
Some may prefer a faster, reduced repayment over a drawn out process due to their own situations and ongoing investment of legal costs to carry this forward any length of time. They may be getting impatient. Typically small money is impatient, big money is VERY patient. Do they have enough small money in an impatient frame of mind to constitute a majority vote in terms of dollars owed? We don’t know.
Kane filled chapter 7 which is bankruptcy in Canada. His creditors applied to court to have it converted to Chapter 11 (the application failed) which is equivalent to a proposal in Canada. The creditors made that application because in Chapter 11 they get access to his post filing income. They could then negotiate a settlement and the creditors could vote on a proposed settlement offer from Kane.
In Chapter 7 the court makes all the decisions there is no creditors vote. As always the court can consider the situation including creditors objections and the bankrupts financial situation. There are precedents however that the court must consider including that in bankruptcy in the USA there is limited access to future earnings. A settlement in bankruptcy may be an option but only to stop the creditors objections. The court still decides.
I haven’t seen anything that he has received his discharge from bankruptcy so it may still be an important consideration in contact talks.
Also in the courts is his custody situation. When he moved to Edmonton his ex-wife applied for a change to custody as set out by courts south of the border. This may indicate that for every change in venue there may be a new application. Not a minor detail.
If the ruling with the Sharks is that they make up the difference between what he gets and what his new contract pays, he can sign wherever he wants with much less consideration of salary.
The kicker may be that any amount the Sharks have to pay may not be considered personal earnings and therefore subject to consideration separately in the bankruptcy.
It’s clear as mud and from the outside there are to many unknowns to make a strategic guess.
Good info. I assumed as a US based hockey player at the time, he had filed in US. Different countries, different rules. I would love to see an official summary of the proceedings and where he likely stands right now. It could be material in crafting the most strategically beneficial contract offer.
Chapter 11 is corporate bankruptcy, I believe as an individual he can only file 7 or 13.
From what I read, You can change from Chapter 7 to Chapter 11, 12, 13. but only once. You can’t flip flop back in forth. It is also possible he may list himself as a Professional Corporation, as many doctors and dentists do if the option was open to him, which makes a corporate bankruptcy a possible move. The reasons for switching involve what are excluded income and/or assets both on a federal level and on the state level in the state he filed, if he had filed in the USA. The Chapter 7 is often used as an opening salvo, where advantageous, to halt accrual of interest and collection actions. In a bankruptcy of this size, it is not unheard of for the filing party to rescind the filing if he can work a deal with his creditors before the Court rules.
In Canada, being declared bankrupt is only the beginning. You still pay non exempt income earned to the court and thus your creditors until final discharge is granted. Much more preferable for many is a Consumer Proposal. Off your credit bureau quicker, can leave you much more for living expenses, etc as is negotiated. More work for the Trustees though so most routinely discourage it and suggest bankruptcy even though is not always in consumers best interest. Don’t get me started on that one!!
I think Evander Kane, if he went for a Consumer Proposal, might set a record for dollars involved! Typically used for Joe Lunchpail type situations, his is much more complex and there may be limitations that make it either infeasible or undesirable in his case.
excellent
Oh pshaw! You make me blush! And that ain’t easy….
Corey Pronman has overager Miguel Tourigny at #42. I was hoping Edmonton would pick him in the late round last year but he went undrafted. RHD. Small but extremely talented and fast. I think we’d be worth a gamble, especially if he’s there with their 2nd pick (which I doubt).
From Pronman in the the Athletic May 31:
“42. Miguel Tourigny, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)
Feb. 9, 2002 | 5′ 8.0″ | 168 pounds | Shoots right
Tier: Projected to play NHL games
Skating: Above NHL average
Puck skills: Below NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: Above NHL average
Background: Tourigny was one of the top defensemen in the CHL and scored both goals and points at a very high rate for a defenseman, even accounting for the fact he’s a 19-year-old. He was also invited to Canada’s U20 camp in the summer.
Analysis: Tourigny is a dynamic player. His skating pops, with the top-end speed to beat checkers wide and lead a rush in transition. He’s an elusive skater with good edgework and is very hard to check on retrievals, despite his diminutive frame. He’s a very smart puck-mover who can make tough, skilled plays with pace and from a standstill, showing ability to hit seams from the offensive blue line. Tourigny is a great passer but also had a great shot as evidenced by his goal totals the last two seasons. The one obvious drawback is his frame, he’s a tiny defenseman by NHL standards at 5-foot-8. He competes well and defends well enough in junior but whether he can take a regular NHL shift is the question. He’s so talented, and the skating is so good I think he has a very good chance to play games and help an organization, but I can’t just yet stamp him as a guy who is going to have a legitimate NHL career.”
I think he may be the only player that Pronman gave 4 “Above Average” grades.
I’m intrigued.
Randle is self-admittedly not good at “what ought to be”.
I will leave you guys to it because I know this is a serious endeavour.
Choose wisely my friends!
#DosEquis..
Based on the premise, “If you’re not going to lead, at least get the #$%@ out of the way!”
Blue Bullet using Mangiapane as a comparable for Jesse.
2X$4.5 – $5.5 million.
https://twitter.com/BlueBullet1981/status/1535294714433392642?s=20&t=YXbrCUwxXOqnKCeOxN2dIA
Not 2X$4.5-$5.5, they’re saying those dollars over 2 years. Seems pretty reasonable for both sides.
Mangiapane’s last deal was 2 year for $2.425 million per season, for a total of $4.85 million over two years.
NOT 2 x $4.5-5.5 million.
Yep…my mistake…need more coffee.
Or you could pull back on the reigns and stop trying to jump at every chance you think is there to attack the Oilers because they beat up your squads.
You mean like Colorado?
No he meant LA, Cgy, Vancouver and Vegas. Zero integrity.
Seattle, Dallas, Minnesota, St. Louis.
Tell us more about the Canucks and the OEL trade.
Has your stance changed since yesterday afternoon again?
Hasn’t changed at all.
Explaining Benning’s motivation to make the trade and why there was short term benefit as well as holding the view that it would have been much more preferable to simply wait a year to get poor contracts off the books is not contradictory.
What we never know in these situations is what the mandate from ownership was in making these transactions.
Since the Aqulinis are reportedly very involved in hockey operations in Vancouver, and almost assuredly would have had to sign off on these transactions, likely means the impetus was to be more successful in the short term.
As it turns out, OEL has performed quite well in Vancouver and his $7.2 million cap hit is perhaps only a shade high considering the inflation in the D market since then.
OEL has adapted to being more of a shutdown D and finished the season with a 54.46% goal share
To me, the more questionable aspect of the trade was giving up a 1st round pick for Conor Garland but, again, the imperative from ownership likely influenced that as well.
Considering the dire shape of Vancouver’s prospect pool, that may have been the most grievous error but hardly fatal by itself.
Vancouver, after ditching Benning and Green went 32-15-10, a 106 point pace which would have had them easily in the playoffs over a full season.
They do have cap issues going forward but I expect Rutherford will see that a s Job 1 and will work on it this offseason.
Lets see:
“Harpers Hair
Reply to leadfarmer
July 27, 2021 7:50 pm
Of course you forgot:
2021:
Acquire top 6 forward Conor Garland and sign him to a steal of a contract at under $5 million for 5 years of prime production.
Move out $20 million in dead cap space.
Aquire OEL and take the risk he will rebound in a more uptempo playing style.
Spend a draft pick to acquire a legit #3C.
By way of contrast…Oilers 2021.
Sign Nuge to an EIGHT year contract. What could go wrong?
Trade an NHL D AND a draft pick to take on the contract of a declining 38 year old D.
Lose #2RD to free agency because you lowballed him.
Hang on to Kassian and Koskinen.
Buyout Neal and pay Lucic effectively $2 million a year not to play for the Oilers.
Potentially pay a 29 year old winger with an injury history $5.5 million for 7 years…what could go wrong?
Sign a 39 year old goaltender to a 2 year contract. What could go wrong?
The Canucks have effectively balanced their forward group but need two defensive D and a backup goaltender.
The Oilers still do not have a credible bottom 6 and need two defensive D and a backup goaltender.
Benning is way ahead at this point. We’ll see how it looks when the dust settles.
Perspective.”
“Harpers Hair
Reply to jp
April 17, 2022 5:22 pm
I would do the Miller trade over again all day long and if Vancouver trades him in the offseason they’ll get a massive haul for him.
The OEL/Garland trade was just dumb but Benning was trying to save his job as often happens.
All he had to do was wait a year and all the shit contracts would have been off the books and The Canucks would have had a ton of cap space and first round picks in the system.
Of course we never know what the directives from ownership are.”
“Harpers Hair
Reply to Side
June 9, 2022 2:13 pm
Revisionist nonsense.
I still believe the OEL trade was fine both at the time and now.
It was means to move on from 3 very poor contracts.
While his cap hit is a bit high, he has fit in very well in Vancouver”
“Harpers Hair
Reply to Side
June 10, 2022 12:57 pm
Hasn’t changed at all.
Explaining Benning’s motivation to make the trade and why there was short term benefit as well as holding the view that it would have been much more preferable to simply wait a year to get poor contracts off the books is not contradictory.
What we never know in these situations is what the mandate from ownership was in making these transactions.
Since the Aqulinis are reportedly very involved in hockey operations in Vancouver, and almost assuredly would have had to sign off on these transactions, likely means the impetus was to be more successful in the short term.
As it turns out, OEL has performed quite well in Vancouver and his $7.2 million cap hit is perhaps only a shade high considering the inflation in the D market since then.
OEL has adapted to being more of a shutdown D and finished the season with a 54.46% goal share
To me, the more questionable aspect of the trade was giving up a 1st round pick for Conor Garland but, again, the imperative from ownership likely influenced that as well.
Considering the dire shape of Vancouver’s prospect pool, that may have been the most grievous error but hardly fatal by itself.
Vancouver, after ditching Benning and Green went 32-15-10, a 106 point pace which would have had them easily in the playoffs over a full season.
They do have cap issues going forward but I expect Rutherford will see that a s Job 1 and will work on it this offseason.”
You are all over the place in your comments above. It’s funny you mention Garland, because you were very high on him. But yet you called both of the Garland and OEL trades dumb.
You had Benning as “way ahead” and yet, lately you have been commenting on how dreadful he was.
Do I really need to dig up more, especially around how you felt OEL would not drop off as he gets older?
Like how he changes his stance on the OEL trade whenever it has an angle he thinks he could take to make the Oilers look bad?
“The OEL trade was great because he will age well! Unlike Nurse who the Oilers extended this year!”
– HH
“The OEL trade was dumb – if Benning just waited he could have had contracts clear and kept his draft picks. Just like Holland should have done instead of signing dead weight contracts and throwing away valuable draft pics!”
-HH
“The OEL trade was fine! It was a mastermind move to get rid of bad cap space and the owners made Benning do it! Holland should learn how to get rid of bad contracts, too”
-HH
Sums up HH’s schtick for any hockey related topic.
And people say he provides value as a contrarian and complain when he gets downvoted..
Couldn’t agree more… Well done, nice work 🙂
How many draft picks do the Oilers have on the current NHL roster who weren’t first or second round picks?
There is a pattern here. With an open mind, What does the pattern really tell us? Just the Brass Tacks..
Do we get to include (Foegle) and Keith given they were acquired for players that were drafted in the 4th/5th rounds, developed and played for the Oilers.
Skinner, Samorukov, Niemelainen all played NHL games this season.
no.
and no. They are not on the NHL roster
Has anyone noticed, that most of the great teams have less draft picks and the worst teams have boatloads of draft picks, and it sometimes seems self-perpetuating.
There is a cycle at work here and some teams get it and some don’t. ( <slight over-simplification)
I think that one “under-represented” fact is the cycle/rotation/timing of building a contender. The truly great teams seem to spend their draft collateral at the right times and then replenish the cupboard by moving out perceived “champion calibre” assets in return for picks and value contracts. (Tampa, Colorado, Toronto have spent assets recently)
Where are we at in the cycle? The Oilers have traditionally not managed this well imo.
I mean holy H E double hockey sticks. The NYR even wrote a letter to their fans asking them for patience as they “reloaded”. AND reload they did!
I’ll be watching to see if teams like Pittsburgh, Boston (and others) follow the lead of Rangers in this regard.
I think the rangers did a good thing, also they got very lucky. Two lottery wins and landing two of there best three players in free agency, mostly because of the city they play in.
Plus getting Shesterkin in the 4th round.
Well that might be luck, but the rangers seem dam good at finding goalies.
“Cutter”, “Jagger” and “Gleb”.
Sounds like a law firm. 🙂
Like Dewey, Scruem and Howe?
First and foremost…FINALLY!…a post solely for over-agers.. 55+ ? Please present your ID at the door. 🙂
“My list is a math list, the descriptions mostly focused on what they bring in skill set (shot, passing, sometimes size).”
Shot. Passing, Size, Boxcars……you ranked Even Bouchard way too low 😉
I like your list for what it brings (math). If I’m interested in a player from your list the next two things I go look up are size and exact date of birth. 6 months development time seems like an eternity for prospects at age18.
The most important thing I’ve learned from you in recent years, is that (almost?) more important than who you draft, is THAT you draft. The most significant data point is the number of prospects you have in the system. It’s truly a numbers game. A pipeline is built around numbers…both qualitative and quantitative. In that respect it really is a bit like a lottery…the more tickets you have the better your chances.
Hence, the overall take away this year…. trade down.
Also, Drafting this late (29th) the chances that any of our selections affects the “window” 22-25 is slim.
Clock be ticking…Especially for us Over-Agers.
I think the takeaway should be “get a good player” Start there. In 2022 we got “_____” From there it is gravy, looking for another player.
Total picks are not relevant as your chance of success lessens the later you pick. If you are nly shooting in the 3rd round and back, then numbers matter.
If you know you have a good NHL player at position 29, then pick him. Bird in the hand and all that…
Is David Spacek Jaroslav’s son?
Affirmative.
Draft the man! Love me some Space-K
He wouldn’t be the only progeny of an ex-Oiler available. Also Mats Lindgren (Jr.), who is a d-man like the junior Spacek.
I am wondering if there is a “late bloomers” list anywhere?
For example, the Canucks signed WHL scoring leader Arshdeep Bains at age 21 who went undrafted.
While their junior performance would have to be docked due to age, I would think teams could unearth some gems here in the same way that some teams find undrafted NCAA players.
Oh man, I doubt Howard drops at all, but I would love to see him in the blue and orange. Smaller but thick. Built like a brick. Tons of offensive je ne sais quois. You can’t teach that.
Looking at your list, I would run up and take Noah Ostlund at #29
Many options for D at #29
Ryan Chesley
Lane Hutson
Rinzel
Pickering
Hutson
Luneau
Bichsel
Nelson
Casey
Lindgren, Warren and Lameroux also intrigue me a lot, especially if trading down into the mid 2nd rd to add an extra pick.
60! 60 Draft names… Ha Ha Ha!
I think LT is brainwashing us… I was already on Elite Prospects looking at Spacek before reaching the end of today’s post… interesting.
52 goals. RC. Impressive in any league
I know nothing about him except what I just researched. He’s also 6’3.
I wonder if he went underrated in his 19-year old season because he only played 21 games (28 points)
It seems to me that one criteria the top teams are looking for in their draft picks is often an adjective not mentioned in the short descriptions we get on the players. This isn’t a knock on LT, he’s likely just reporting what is out there. It’s just curious that compete or battle level is rarely mentioned in these short little descriptive tags.
And it is something that I’d really want to know. I mean the Oil don’t look twice at Yams without his compete level. And his was so noticeable, it might’ve got a mention in his log line. Now Yams was famous for this even as Junior and we all knew he had battle… but that info is harder to come by the deeper in the draft one is looking.
Anyways, just something I try to be aware of.
My list is solely concerned with math, and if “compete” is in the player, it should show up in the boxcars. It certainly did for Yamamoto.
Either way, I agree with your point. There are fantastic draft writers (Wheeler and Pronman are brilliant at The Athletic) who fill in those blanks. My list is a math list, the descriptions mostly focused on what they bring in skill set (shot, passing, sometimes size).
Yep, agreed, I know your focus… it just seems that the taglines are like that everywhere.
I disagree though that this shows up in the numbers. You can have a highly talented person with lower battle who scores at the same rate as a lesser talented person with higher battle levels. how do you know which is which? Size relative to one’s peers affects these things too. I personally don’t think we have the info to establish which prospects are the best competitors. Not to mention scoring is also affected by teammates and deployment, further muddying the waters.
I think too this might be why scouts seem to favour playoff and tournament performance.
Totally agree with Munny – exhibit A: Nail Yakupov – like McDavid, a former first overall, but unlike McDavid, who lives and breathes hockey,takes nothing for granted, and has evolved each and every year into a more complete and ferocious player, who fights for every inch of ice … Yakupov just didn’t have that, and it got exposed at the NHL level. Hard to quantify that though when looking through the lens of minor league stats, however. That’s where scouting comes in I guess.
This is so true … the NHL is a fast and physically violent league; the violence is different now than before, but in the playoffs, the players lose all respect for each other. Being able to bring the requisite level of battle each and every night is what separates the wheat from the chaff.
This is addressed to some degree here near the bottom of the article.
https://theathletic.com/3352886/2022/06/09/nhl-draft-mailbag/?source=user_shared_article