The business of the offseason got underway yesterday, with two transactions (Mikko Koskinen to the Swiss League, Brad Malone retained on a two-way deal) to get things started. General manager Ken Holland has piles of room to make moves, and hasn’t been close to the 50-man list since arriving in Edmonton. There are a few names already on the list we should spend some time on.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- New DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: What will Edmonton Oilers do in first round of 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: Oilers end-of-season takeaways
- Lowetide: Young Oilers players poised for bigger roles after playoff run
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
- Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
- Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
50-MAN LIST
There are seven RFA’s on this list, so the 50-man is actually the 35-man at this point in time. I would guess Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod are locks, not sure about the rest.
Let’s start with Ryan Fanti. He’s 6.03 and boasted a .929 save percentage for Minnesota-Duluth last season, the Oilers won a reasonably aggressive pursuit by several team. Fanti appears poised to compete for the No. 1 spot with the Bakersfield Condors this fall, with only Olivier Rodrigue currently standing in his way. I do think we’ll see the Oilers sign an AHL veteran who could slide into an NHL role if injuries hit. Kind of a Yann Danis type for those who recall the two seasons Danis spent in the organization.
I’m not sure we can apply the rule of three we used to monitor the Jeff Petry-Taylor Chorney-Cody Wild progression, but it is possible only one of Xavier Bourgault, Carter Savoie and Matvey Petrov will emerge as an NHL player. From here, I think most would give Bourgault the edge, but Petrov’s season is the most impressive because he was an OHL rookie. We’ll see in time. Could two have success? Maybe 400 games in the NHL? There’s real talent there.
There are four minor-league defensemen (Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov, Vincent Desharnais) who we should pay special attention to in the summer and then in training camp. If none of them is traded over the summer, each could see playing time during the winter and spring. I’ll suggest Broberg has the best chance to make the team out of training camp and that Niemelainen’s skill set gives him an edge on the competition. Desharnais? He just keeps on trucking, maybe all the way to an NHL game. The only forward prospect with a strong chance to make the team out of camp is Dylan Holloway.
Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod are locks for renewal if none are traded, uncertain if anything happens there. I can see Holland trading JP to a team willing to give up an NHL player (Carl Grundstrom, Dominik Kubalik) who brings something the team can use. My hope is the team stays the course for two more years with the big Finn. The bet is he’ll reward them richly.
The rest of the RFA’s may be stuck in a classic song from The Band over the next few months. I think Tyson Barrie will be traded, Evan Bouchard duplicates his skills. One suspects a Zack Kassian buyout is possible and Warren Foegele might also be vulnerable.
Among players who are unlikely to make the team out of camp, but could see a cup of coffee during the season, I’ll name James Hamblin, Noah Philp and Mike Kesselring. Highly regarded prospect in the most need of a recovery season in 2022-23? Raphael Lavoie.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A big show today, 10-2 on TSN 1260. Guests include Glen Suitor, Bruce Arthur and Brendan Kuty from The Star-Ledger to talk Yankees. We’ll also have Oilers talk as the offseason waits for the first loud noise from the Edmonton operation.
I’ve been busy the last while so this may be old news here. My apologies if it has already been posted.
=====================
Shawinigan sniper Xavier Bourgault earned the nickname “Bour-Goal” by scoring 12 times in 16 QMJHL playoff games, including three in overtime. “Pressure is like a motivation,” the Edmonton Oilers prospect said. “It helps me by giving me energy.” Bourgault spoke to TSN about his new nickname, his mom’s superstition and what the chance to play in the Memorial Cup means to him.
https://www.tsn.ca/CHL/video/oilers-prospect-earns-bour-goal-nickname-by-producing-under-pres~2464582
Hey LT
I catch the show on podcast as I can
Love the new one. It occurs to me the blend of personalities is like Seinfeld. How perfect
I won’t suggest whom is whom but I had a few iterations
Cheers
For footy fans…
Apple TV has inked a deal to stream MLS games for the next 10 years.
https://www.macrumors.com/2022/06/14/apple-major-league-soccer-partnership/
Talking about Nurse’s contract
Makar signed his deal well before Nurse
Even last summer, in what universe does Nurse get more than Makar?
Buying RFA years, ok. But it’s a capped league, you can’t do that if you want cups. You lose team strength against a strong opponent. Negotiating skills are more than a bend at the waists and full pop or better, ‘is that enough?’
If I’m the GM it’s ‘are you better than Makar? Are you a RSD? Do you want to win a cup, because that’s what we’re competing against? Do you realize Connor took 2M less than he could have? That Leon is the most underpaid forward in the league, and can still afford to eat all the spatzle he wants to?
This team, man! It seems the only good moves are player driven – Connor’s contract and Kane coming – or lucky like an overpay for a young player- Leon a couple million over the market at the time. You don’t pay potential and you always ask, no demand, for a discount to play with Connor
Like Sakic did to Landeskog
The reason why nurse received the big contract was because he was piggybacking off of Seth Jones. The reason why Seth went to Chicago for big bucks was because Holland did a solid for his buddy Bowman and took Keith off his hands. Holland makes 5 Million a year, you can’t make this shit up.
That “buying RFA years” trope has become largely irrelevant as teams with elite young players sign them long term coming off their ELC’s.
Makar is signed through his peak years (which he may not have hit yet) while the Oilers will be paying more for an inferior player which aging curves suggest will become a liability for some of his declining years.
It will be fascinating to watch how Joe deals with Kadri, Nichushkin and Burakovsky this offseason. I expect some home town deals will be the result.
I’ve never been the GM of an NHL team before but I’m pretty sure this approach would have seen Nurse walking. And then you know the players and agents will probably start talking and advising against playing in Edmonton.
Nurse was a pending UFA. That gives a player leverage, especially when he is the only legit top 2 type D on the team.
Smart teams don’t let their key players reach UFA status.
If they do, it almost always results in an overpayment.
Nurse bet on himself twice, and won The Oilers lost Klefbom and had zero behind Nurse. I understand your anger and respect your opinion, but “are you better than Makar?” isn’t a negotiating point. The agent doesn’t care that the Oilers boxed themselves in, only that it gives his client a great opportunity.
The choice for Nurse was take Edmonton’s money or someone else’s money. The die was cast by stunningly bad decisions (twice!) to kick the problem down the road.
Don’t do this with Bouchard!!
Curious about what you think the Oilers would look at in Bouchard’s second contract?
Vancouver locked up Quinn Hughes for 6 years at $7.8 million coming off his ELC.
Is that the ceiling?
Depends if he hits a growth spurt!😂
I posit the stunningly bad decisions were made prior the cans being kicked down the road and let to can kicking. There was’t the cap room to go long on Nurse’s last contract so they didn’t have the choice but to bridge (again) – the prior stunningly bad decisions included Mikko a 3 X $4.5MM which I’m not sure wasn’t an error when submitting the contract and they meant to go $4.5MM over 3 years……
You have to stand and deliver on the Nurse deal, he was part of the foundation. Nurse signed for eight years four years ago would have him in the middle of a fairly reasonable contract.
You and many others don’t seem to give much credence to is what players are willing to sign for. Negotiations are a 2 way street. Even though they are RFA’s they can still themselves hold firm on either length or $. The Oilers probably offered Nurse the 8 year deal they could afford under their cap at the time, but he preferred to only sign the shorter deal for less money believing he could get more later. Same with Draisaitl. He could easily have told the Oilers, if you won’t give me $8.5 for 8, I’d rather sign a bridge deal for less and we can talk again in 2 to 3 seasons.
The Oilers bet right on the Draisaitl deal, but their lack of cap space for Nurse, combined with not knowing that Klefbom would be out of the picture due to injury, lead to where they are now. If created the need and opportunity for Nurse to prove himself much more so than if Klefbom’s injuries didn’t end up being as bad as they have been. The cap errors that lead to that circumstance were the bigger problem, not necessarily their valuing of Nurse.
Let’s not get too revisionist, though. Leon is on a value contract, definitely. However, at the time of signing, most here thought that he was overpaid by $1M.
Nathan MacKinnon is the most underpaid forward in the league and Gabriel Landeskog is very close to that.
Mackinnon is fair, but are you seriously trying to claim that Landeskog is more underpaid than Draisaitl? Oh wait a minute, I forgot who’s posting for a second. Your stuff is never meant to be taken at face value.
VGK hire Bruce Cassidy as head coach.
Word is he wants the Sundance Kid as his assistant…:)
Wonder if he’ll have ‘Raindrops falling on his head’?
It will be interesting to follow VGK figuring out their roster and managing their cap this year. Cap Friendly has them virtually capped out with 6 more roster slots to fill. Obviously they have time to figure it out, but to me their chosen method of LTIR cap management seems like a giant Ponzi scheme that could blow up in their faces at any moment.
With more time and more teams to work with, I expect they will be able to trade Dadanov who has a 10 team no trade list.
That frees up $5 million.
Thry may also move on from one of their expensive D to carve out more room.
Kelly McCrimmon is not distinguishing himself so far as an astute GM since taking over from George McPhee. He went all in with a lot of older players. He has not dealt openly and fairly with a number of players (Schmidt, Fleury and Dadanov just to name a few). He and his staff screwed up the Dadanov trade at the deadline (no excuses no matter what Ottawa did or didn’t tell him, the NHL had the details on file).
Reilly Smith is being left on the curb along with any one he dumps now to get be able to get under the cap next season. And if 27 year old Darnell Nurse is supposed to start declining soon with only a few good seasons in his contract, like you have repeatedly and emphatically stated, where does that leave Vegas with the already 32 year old Pietrangelo signed for another 5 seasons at $8.8 million. Even with all that, his team missed the playoffs. Maybe he pulls a rabbit out of a hat, but so far, Holland took over a team that has improved in its results in every respect in each of his 3 seasons at the helm.
There’s an awful lot of chaff here.
First of all.
George McPhee hasn’t gone away…he’s President of Hockey Operations and undoubtedly has final say on player transactions.
From the start they have had a “win now” mandate from Bill Foley and, if you doubt that, I invite you to do a little research.
That attitude has certainly impacted the way they deal with their players but it is, after all, a business and they are free to run their business any way they see fit whether you think it’s “fair” or not.
Suggesting Riley Smith is “being left on the curb” is nonsense. He’s a UFA…happens all the time.
So, let’s take a look at how the approach has fared since they started from scratch and came into the league.
We know they went to the Stanley Cup final in their inaugural season but they have also been relatively successful throughout notwithstanding a horrific injury situation this past season.
POINTS LAST 5 SEASONS
VGK 464
EDM 416
During that 5 year period the Oilers, of course already had a nucleus that included McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse and a bevy of high draft picks…did I mention the Knights started from scratch.
If you want to narrow things down to Holland’s 3 years with the Oilers, that’s pretty much shooting fish in a barrel…or is it?
POINTS LAST 3 SEASONS
VGK 264
EDM 259
Let’s take a minute to reflect on this past season when Vegas was ravaged by injuries to THREE top 6 forwards and TWO top 4 D for extended portions of the season.
Had that not been the case, I’m pretty sure they would have made the playoffs and would have given their first round opponents a fit.
Speaking of the playoffs…
Under Ken Holland’s leadership…the Oilers have a 9-13 record in playoff games.
Vegas has a record of 22-17 despite this last season’s miss.
As for the Nurse/Pietrangelo debate…I agree that contract will undoubtedly be an albatross for Vegas since it expires when he is 36 but Nurse’s expires when he is 35 and, of course, Pietrangelo started from a significantly higher starting point.
As for next season, I doubt any pulling rabbits from hats will be required.
If reasonably healthy, the Knights are the class of the Pacific Division but injury and unseen calamities can affect any team.
Holland and McCrimmon have been in charge for the same term. Holland’s not responsible for what came before him. And actually McCrimmon had somewhat of a head start since he was the assistant GM under McPhee who stepped aside so McCrimmon wouldn’t leave. But Holland took over a team that missed the playoffs by 14 points and was cap limited, and has made the playoffs all 3 seasons and improved the team in every measure each of those seasons. McCrimmon was put in charge of a team that had been to the cup final 2 seasons before he got the job and a solid playoff team the year before. McPhee was the original architect of that foundation not McCrimmon. McCrimmon may have squandered that position built up by McPhee.
Also, I will point out your very obvious error, which you will no doubt ignore and disappear on like you did yesterday after all your errors on the Vancouver signings. Pietrangelo’s contract expires when he’s 37 not 36. He was born in January 1990 and his contract will expire in June 2027. If you want help with the math 2027 – 1990 equals 37 + the six months from January to June. 40% of the remaining term of his contract is beyond the equivalent term of Nurse’ deal. If you believe that time will diminish Nurse and ham string the Oilers for the last 2-3 years of his deal, age wise Pietrangelo is already there.
he disappears faster than Houdini when confronted with facts / reality 😉
He’s good – ended up not needing a surgery and there was a possibility he would be an option for the Condors if they went deeper.
Good intel – thank you.
Thanks, good to know he’ll be healthy entering camp this year.
Not that it would have ever made sense for the Oilers to pay material assets to take on the cap hit risk (nor would it be likely for the Oilers to not be on his no trade list), Gibson has expressly denied the rumours nor any desire to leave the Ducks org.
I think this is a prudent time to point out that next year at this time Evan Bouchard is going to be an RFA. With one 40pt season already in the bank with minimal pp time, I am concerned about what happens to his second contract if Barrie is traded and the 1PP time goes to Bouchard immediately. Looks a lot like the Nurse 1pp contract bump to me. I understand there’s a lot of needs this off-season, but if trading Barrie looking likely, I’d feel a lot better having Bouchard signed to the Klefbom 8 yr contract to start in 23-24 before Barrie is traded. Otherwise I see some serious cap issues with this player moving forwards.
Yes to this!
100% this. Trading Barrie this year will cause more problems than it will solve. Bouchard is not a $7 million+ d-man but a 60pt season will put him right on the Nurse contract train.
I am a supporter of Holland but how he handled the Nurse contract is one of his biggest mistakes, behind the Kassian contract of course.
Speaking of which, focus on trading Kassian and, maybe, Foegele.
Yup, I mentioned the Klefbom deal for Bouch the other day.
He’s going to put up 65 points (or more) if healthy next season.
Yup. Can’t trade Barrie until long term Bouch contract
Good thinking
Something needs to happen with the D group. I’m thought Barrie out. But using this thinking it should be Keith. Or he does the team a favour and accepts a trade or retires
Bouch has a long way to go before he should get a large deal. If he can’t develop defensive acumen and he’s not there now, it’ll be Barrie all over – a high paid sheltered D
Players getting paid need to be strong in prominent role or it’s really a cap killer and puts a team out of balance
Makar getting paid is fine bcs he’s their best and does it all
I go long on Bouch (the Klef deal) in an instant. Decent chance he’s top 5 in D scoring year after year after year starting soon.
He’s a “smart hockey player” and will be learning and learning and learning. His defence will come, no doubt.
Makar is a silly comparable, isn’t it? He’s at $9MM – noone is talking about even half that with Bouch – for many years.
Oilers should do what it takes to get a number goalie (give up a Nuge, Yamamoto, Jesse or high draft picks if needed) my targets would be;
1.Hart
2.Kuemper
3.Price (50% retained)
4.Georgiev
5.Blackwood
None of those options are provably better or provably less risky than Skinner as early as a year from now.
If Montreal would take Kassian and Barrie in the deal, I would be interested in Price.
My preference is Barrie for Allen (since I expect they are trading Petry, probably to Dallas).
Why would a clearly rebuilding Montreal team have any interest in a soon to be 32 year old Kassian and a 31 year old Barrie though?
1) To get rid of the long tail on Price’s contract.
2) To do good by Price.
On any Carey Price deal, there have to been many contigent clauses for various path dependencies that Price’s future career might take to protect both sides.
It would be a very difficult trade to construct so both sides are properly hedged for all possible path dependencies.
The Oilers cannot consider the deal unless Kassian and Barrie are part of it, certainly at least one of them.
@Archivistttt
Not a surprise to anyone but Derick Brassard will not be returning to the #LetsGoOiler
Casey DeSmith.
Yes, definite option. I didn’t realize his numbers are pretty decent, never been a starter though. Looks like he is in the Campbell, Husso bucket but at a cheaper price point if he wants a chance at a starter role now.
From The Smith to De Smith.
I’m not sure if DeSmith is any better of a tender than Comrie, TBH. Either would be good coverage/tandem material if Smith is hanging up his skates.
Broberg is most likely on the opening night roster. Likely pencilled in to the third paid (3LD with Barrie or, perhaps, 3RD with Kulak).
I could see a vet 7D added (Russell replacement) and both Sammy and Niemelainen staring in the AHL.
Niemo almost for sure in the AHL as he’s waivers exempt – unless Holland believes they really need his truculence. Truculence is great but preventing goals is greater and Niemo struggle at that. Should be better in time.
Sammy also brings that truculence, lets not forget. He’s waivers eligible and that could be a factor. He likely slides through unclaimed, as more famous names do every year in early Oct.
Both those guys will play games in the NHL in 2022/23.
Deharnais will almost assuredly start in the AHL. He’s a wild-card/bell of distance but Holland did mention him in the last presser in the names for “internal development” to push.
Totally agree with this. I think Bourgault is probably close to a lock for an NHL career. It would be a big surprise if he wasn’t a legit NHL player, likely within 12 months from now – question is likely, middle six or top six.
The other two are solid prospects but far from locks. I would be shocked if Savoie saw NHL games this year, he may need more than a year in the AHL before he’s ready, if ever. A big development year coming up and I think its going to be uneven and up and down for him.
Not even sure where Petrov will play – maybe they’ll start him in the AHL with the likelihood of being returned to North Bay.
I’m not sure what LT calls this exactly but his premise of the most important roster spots belong to:
Top 6 forwards
3C
Top 4 D
#1 G
We are in tough at the #1 G position. I can’t even fathom a scenario that is a long term fix.
We’ve got 3 top 4 D for sure. Nurse Ceci Bouch. And 2 serviceable D man in Keith and Barrie… make it 3 if Kulak signs and a Bro ready to go for a ride. It would be sweet to find an improvement for the top 4.
As for the forwards. I’ve watched the condensed games (10min highlights by packs) on the NHL network and it is a great reminder of the brilliance that is Woodcrofts versatility at forward deployment. From game to game throughout the series he threw a number of different looks out there. Woody has the skills to create a plan and structure a lineup to deploy it. If we look at it as a top 7 we have 4 forwards who can play centre, two who are first line on every team in the NHL and a pair that can flip between 2c and 3c. We’ve got 3 capable wingers but could use one more impact winger to push us over the top.
I won’t bother making lines because they won’t last. Injuries, slumps and hot streaks happen. We’ve got the spine of the roster pretty damn near set. In Woody I trust.
Skinner is a potential long term fix as a #1G. Obviously, not in the short term. A goalie who has paid his dues is not as prone to volatility in performance level. So Skinner should begin to declare himself as to his true upside potential this season when he starts as the backup goaltender.
I didn’t invent the Rule of Three, but I never thought I would see first round draft choices used in it. Makes no sense to me and seems to defeat the purpose of the rule.
If we exclude the first rounders, we would then say one of Petrov, Savoie or Tullio should make it, out of the present crop of forwards.
For the D that would mean one of Samorukov, Niemeleinen or Desharnais.
So does the Borg assimilate the Oil Kings in the Memorial Cup?
Tall order. The Oil Kings play an absolute stifling type of hockey. Great positioning and tight checking. They don’t give up much in the defensive zone. We watched four OK playoff games during their run and each game was the same: they throw a weighted blanket on the opposition and smother them. No major stars either; Kaiden Guhle is their best player and very close to NHL ready (nice pick for the Canadiens).
Although I’m in favour of going longer for JP in particular, short term for both him and Yamo may be prudent for the following reasons:
1 – We don’t know how good Bourgeault/Holloway/Savoie/Petrov will be. Two years will bring plenty of clarity in that regard. It *may* be the case that, for example, Holloway and Bourgeault are two guys you want locked up long term. It may be that JP/Yamo establish themselves as middle six rather than top 6.
2 – The right play this off-season may be to go long, pro-actively,with Bouchard (depending on price). He will have an increased powerplay role and could (further) pop.
3 – We don’t know how good Broberg will be (I think he’ll be quality).
4 – More time to optimize the cap. Kassian, Keith, Barrie, Foegele need to be dealt with (away).
OK, I was curious about the average number of games played by a 7D.
Turns out the average/median (based on 2021-22) is 36/37 games.
(I did this by locating the D-man on each team who played the 7th most games for that team. This likely undercounts the number of games played by a few of the 7D guys. Sometimes the guy who breaks camp as 7D ends up playing more games than one of the guys above him. Injuries are a thing.)
38 ANA
45 ARI
29 BOS
37 BUF
45 CAR
43 CBJ
9 CGY (!) Valimaki (HH’s future superstar)
51 CHI
37 COL
44 DAL (Sekera 32)
45 DET (Jordan Oesterle)
31 EDM (KRusty)
39 FLA
36 LAK
39 MIN
24 MTL
27 NJD
27 NSH
36 NYI
25 NYR
37 OTT
30 PHI
26 PIT
36 SEA
44 SJS
51 STL
48 TBL
47 TOR
40 VCR
52 VGK
24 WPG
17 WSH
I’ve heard several different podcasts in the last week or so reference Paul Coffey’s role on the club. They all imply that it’s growing.
Does anyone know anything about this and what his role or influence is/will be?
Watching the countdown to Kuzmenko’s decision. It looks like it is between Edmonton, Vancouver, Vegas and another American team (Detroit?). It appears his decision will be made in 9 days, so Friday, June 24th. His agent also represents Evander Kane, Petrov, and Kravstrov who wants out of NYR.
Didn’t Kravstrov just sign a one year deal worth 800k with the Rangers? I know that doesn’t preclude him from getting moved but….
Oh. Maybe he has and I missed that.
Lol, for the fourth season in a row, we need to fix the goal tending, shore up the defense and we have no cap to do it.
Question posited by respected, unnamed yet debonair, dashing Oiler’s blogger, friend to small animals and children: “What do the Oilers do to fix the goal tending, shore up the defense and work wizardry with the cap to do it?”
Oilers Fans/MSM/Management: “Mike Smith and Josh Anderson!”
From what I’ve seen on the web, Oiler fans have no interest in Josh Anderson while all hoping Mike Smith is done.
Management has asked for clarity on Smith, and not of word of Josh Anderson has been mentioned.
MSM are agents of Gary who’s only interest is to run good players out of town to friendly American markets.
You’re right about 1 out of 3.
Turn on the AM. LT and Jamie talking about it now.
I’m a solid 2 out of 3. And as Meatloaf says, that ain’t bad.
I think you retain up to half on all of Kassian, Foegele, Keith, Barrie, and Smith in trades. Send picks along with them too. If you retain that much, the picks should be minimal late-round picks. Even retaining half would take over $9M off the cap. A few entry-level contracts as replacements and you have some spending money. I bet you could unload them all and retain less than $6.7M of their $18.2M in contracts, thereby saving $11.5M in cap. Replace some of that with entry-level $.925M contracts and you’ve got a ton of space.
Not sure that it would be a good idea to replace our:
Starting goalie
3RD/ 1st PP D
2LD
4RW
and
3LW
with entry level contracts.
Especially when, even if you are able to manage it, all you end up saving is approximately $4.5M (entry level deals still count against the cap).
I have time for Kassian retention, but Foegele and Barrie have value and should be able to be traded for a net positive (Pick, prospect, Equivalent player?)
Smith is either on the team next year or LTIRed forever.
What a slap to the face it would be to Keith to accept the trade from Chicago, perform very well for his age, and then be traded a year later to a random team. His NMC might even be still in effect. There is a reason why Kane signed here, as well as why we have a growing reputation in the free agent market. People management is important as well as asset management, and Holland is excellent at that.
That whole can only retain salary on 3 contracts at a time, and already having Lucic’s retention, would put a pretty big kibosh on your plan.
2022-23 Oilers baseline as it stands today.
Basically just attaching salaries to LT’s 50 man above and populating the 23 man roster from RFAs and players who are already under contract. Don’t get hung up on lines or the guys at the bottom of the roster as they are likely to change:
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi ($2.5M)
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto ($2.5M)
Foegele-McLeod ($1.1M)-Ryan
Holloway-Shore-Kassian
Malone-Griffith
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Samorukov (or Niemalainan)
Smith
Skinner
The above 23-man roster has $1.2M in cap space left (accounting for overages and dead cap, and with Klefbom on LTIR).
If Smith retires or is on LTIR you’re up to $3.4M (ish) in cap, which isn’t likely enough for a replacement (Reimer I think is the only one who’d fit and could reasonably do the job).
The possibilities of moving Barrie ($4.5M), Foegele ($2.75M), Kassian ($3.2M), Puljujarvi (RFA), and Keith retiring ($5.5M), are the avenues to open cap space for (hopefully) nicer things.
For instance, Barrie, Foegele and Kassian traded, plus Smith on LTIR would leave the team with $13+M for their 4 replacements (ie – a couple of bottom of the roster forwards and around $5M each for Goalie and Kane or other).
Kassian and Foegele have to be moved. There are better and cheaper options available. Barrie is useful cover for injury, at least, in that he could move into the top six.
They have to at least try to do something with Keith’s cap hit, that is if he returns.
Barrie is a guy who has averaged 51 points per 82 games over his career. We’ve got him for $4.5M a year. That’s a value contract by any metric. (Compare him to Torey Krug at $6.5M*7 years.) He also seems well-liked on the team.
Yes, Barrie has his defensive warts. But he was pretty good in the playoffs, and showed a hard-nosed edge.
I would only get rid of him as a very last resort. I wouldn’t get rid of him so we could sign Kane.
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Keith-Barrie
Broberg
Looks like a pretty solid D corps to me. We can pick up a forward rather than a defenseman at the trade deadline.
I like Barrie very much as well, but his skill set is somewhat duplicated by Bouchard. The right side would also be too small if he retain him. Barrie has a good contract IMO, but it’s a cap inefficiency at this point. If we trade him, we can use that cap space somewhere else.
The model for D is kind of set by the teams that keep dominating
It will remain as long as the league calls the rules as they do currently
Undersized D have to be high mobility and high skill
Everyone else needs also to be at least a decent skater, but most importantly bigger, and edgy is better
Players in between this are caught in no man’s land. Not fast enough to defend that way, not tall enough to take ice and space away. If they aren’t edgy they also can get pushed around by big nasty forwards
Tampa got big after successive post season failures. The Avs did the same trying to go all skill. Now they have 3 bigger guys with some ability to push back including Manson they acquired for the run
To me they need to balance the attributes of the players better on D
Didn’t it kind of get un-set this year though?
You’ve got TB still, but then 3 other teams in the final 4 each with multiple D under 200 lbs.
E. Johnson 225
J. Manson 224
J. Johnson 227
Both Byram and Toews are close to 200.
Sakic said last offseason, he needed to balance his D with some bigger bodies and then went out and did just that.
With Girard injured and J. Johnson in, the COL D is a few lbs heavier than the Oilers. With Girard in instead they’re smaller (and clearly no one will argue that wasn’t Joe Sakic’s plan).
The Rangers starting 6 is also basically the same size as the Oilers. The TB D is huge, but they are the exception in the final 4 this season.
The teams:
TBY 6’3”, 219
EDM 6’2”, 202
NYR 6’2”, 201
COL 6’1”, 197 (with Girard)
COL 6’1.5”, 206 (with J. Johnson)
I really don’t think 5 pounds is much of a difference when your D has all world skills.
TB is clearly an outlier and has a lot of success with that template but it’s not the only way to win,
Yes, that’s literally exactly what I’m saying.
Byram listed at 190 and Toews listed at 191 are each lighter than Bouchard and Barrie and even Keith.
Nurse is big, Ceci is 210, Broberg is over 200.
It’s about the balance and who they play with
Toews Makar works because Makar is ridiculous and Toews punches way above his weight, so to speak. But it hinges on Makar
Nurse Ceci is fine bcs Nurse plays heavy usually and Ceci has a brain and decent skills
Keith Bouch are easily overmatched
Kulak Barrie are easily overmatched
The latter two pairs because if they can’t get the puck out quick they’re hooped. All not over 200 pounds and only Bouch is a typical height. That is shorter and lighter than most forwards are, especially top 6
Only Keith has any real bite, only Kulak at this point is a plus skater to compensate for the things lacking
We saw the results when Nurse couldn’t carry the group by playing half the game
I was solely speaking to the point about size/heaviness.
With that said, you can say that Kulak/Barrie were overmatched but that doesn’t make it true – they were 12-5 goals in the regular season and 8-5 goals in the playoffs including 3-1 vs. the Avs.
Keith/Bouchard were 22-12 goals during the regular season. Down to 12-14 in the playoffs but 4-4 vs. the Avs.
Overmatched?
Not to me
They’re out against the teams that got bigger D men
That did that because they kept getting pushed around and getting knocked out
The Avs diminutives are very skilled. The guys that aren’t are big, mobile enough, and not puck optional. They have some crust
Brisebois found all big, and not a nice guy in the bunch
Florida suddenly couldn’t score
The Rangers suddenly couldn’t score
Kings / Flames – smaller D or plugs. Oilers play the Avs, suddenly couldn’t score as they had, so couldn’t outscore their mistakes. Even against weak goalering on the Avs part
I see a pattern with it
Yeah, you certainly don’t have to agree, it’s just that the evidence for big D being ‘the way’ has gotten thinner (last year’s final 4 fit your mold, this year’s does not).
Obviously it’s nice to have lots of big Dmen that are also: good skaters, aggressive, good with the puck. That’s a hockey player that checks all the boxes.
How essential they are is a different question. It wasn’t that long ago that Pittsburgh and Chicago were winning cups with normal/small sized D, and I’m not convinced anything has actually changed.
More to the point you are making, Pittsburgh won back to back cups in 16/17 with one defenseman over 210 (Ian Cole – and he average only 17 minutes a game over those 2 runs), Letang, Hainsay, Daley and Schultz who played big minutes one season or the next were all 201 or less. Three of Washington’s 6 regular D in 2018 were 203, 192 and 180. Boston and Dallas got to the cup finals with several D under 200 lbs. There is more than one recipe to be successful in the NHL. It is the right combination overall. The Oilers didn’t lose to the Avalanche because their D couldn’t out muscle Colorado they just as a team made too many defensive errors.
Well said, and thanks for the additional context.
I wanted them to try to trade for Connor Ingram or Logan Thompson back in February and that still applies, although they both finished the season with the big club so their cost probably went up. I’d still like to see them as Oilers.
I wanted them to trade for Oettinger last offseason when the stars burried him under a pile of Bishop Holtby Khudobin
Despite being buried, he still started the playoffs. The cream always rises.
There is every chance that Stu Skinner is just as good, if not better, than either this coming season. Sure, depth is good and it would be nice t have both but its not logical to have Skinner/Ingram as the opening night due and, of course, it would be bad business to acquire a tender in the same tier as Skinner and then move Skinner. That’s a non-starter for me, and likely for management.
I agree with most of what you say except why would they move Skinner in this scenario? Skinner/Ingram or Skinner/Thompson would be your duo going forward. They need a young goalie stud that is near ready. And there are no guarantees with any of those 3 (Skinner, Ingram, or Thompson), but I’d rather have 2 or 3 40% chances than 1. There is a good chance that at least one of them will become a bonafide starter. Now at 24 or 25 is three time to procure them before they cost an arm and a leg. That would be a good she to come into their prime for the next few years and beyond while Edmonton is contending and could continue to contend beyond Draisaitl and McDavid’s current contract and into their next one. But will they sign again with another high priced goalie in their mid to late thirties? Holtby, Jones DeSmith, Gibson, etc don’t fill me with a lot of confidence.
I don’t see any realistic chance they’d head in to a season, with real SC aspirations, with a Skinner/Ingram or Skinner/Thompson duo.
I don’t think any of the 32 GMs would do that with real SC aspirations.
Hence, Ingram/Thompson would be a “Skinner Replacement” with another goalie procured which, to me, is a non-starter – Skinner is reasonably just as good, maybe even better and the team has drafted and developed him to NHL readiness.
Fun fact: Sam Gagner never scored 20 goals in his NHL career. Yam has in his 3rd year. Shouldn’t Yam expect at least 4 million?
Record Book says Samwise has an 8 point night.
Holland spoke about internal solutions. This one line is going to be tough for a news hunger hockey town because it equals = a boring summer for transactions.
Kane – gone as it was intended – he came to give value to get MORE value in his next contract.
Kulak – gone as it was intended – this is Broberg’s spot, IF they need another 3LHD they will get him at the deadline.
Koskinen – gone as it was intended – this is Skinner’s spot
Internal solutions
1LW – Hyman replaces Kane is good
1RW – Jesse continues to grow to a 25 goal scorer that can check
2LW – Hopkins replaces Hyman is good
2RW – Yamamoto continues to grow to a 25 goal scorer that can check
3LW – Holloway replaces Foegele – Speed and a Pest and 10-15 goals
3C – McLeod replaces Hopkins – Speed and a Pest that can check
3RW – Foegele replaces Kassian – veteran for the third line
4LW ?????
2RHD – Bouchard continues to grow as a defender – more PP time
3LHD – Broberg replaces Kulak
2G – Skinner replaces Koskinen
There is regression worries with Smith and Keith.
The club has Yamamoto and Puljajarvi has young pros, McLeod and Bouchard as emerging pros and Holloway and Skinner as rookies these 6 are key the next playoff success.
Nuge is a misfit on this team.
Mcleod is ready to take his place as 3C
Nuge isn’t good enough Offensively to be a top 6 winger.
You couldn’t be more wrong.
1 pp goal with two top players in league
40% on face offs
22 EV points, behind Warren Foegele!!
if he was a Euro he’d be long chased out of town
50 points in 62 games followed by 14 points in 16 playoff games – that’s not enough offence for a top 6 winger? Note: most top 6 wingers get plenty of their points on the PP.
You did notice that the PP suffered when Nuge was out due injury! His versatility allows the coach line versatility. His face off percentage improves when playing more centre. Nuge is very solid NHL player with well above average hockey IQ!
Is this an evolution of the “Nuge will never get 50 points” joke?
Very odd take.
This is a reasonable plan as a ‘worst case’. And it really isn’t that bad.
Ideally, we find cap space to add another top 6 winger, dman and a goalie. But the internal solutions provide some cover.
As mentioned by many – Smith, Keith, Kassian, and Klefbom are the wild cards. If Holland can work some magic with this quartet without giving up too many assets, that is a great summer.
Kulak was essential for us in the playoffs. He’s right at the age where defensemen tend to settle in. I wonder if he could be the next Steve Staios. If Keith retires (please!), then it seems to me like Kulak is a no-brainer. But even if Keith stays, I’d like to see Kulak back.
I understand that Broberg needs at-bats, but as Lowetide has taught me, you can count on defensemen to be injured. You need depth on D. I don’t have any evidence, but I’d bet that the #7D on an average NHL team plays 50 games. (Has anybody looked at the statistics?)
How amenable is he to a (literal) hometown discount?
I liked what I saw from Kulak as well. But I don’t see him as better than Keith … more as 3LHD that can fill in as 2 LHD for 10 games. This type of guys are deadline adds vs. carrying on the roster all year …imo
I think he’s slightly redundant for 22-23, but beyond that he can play 2LD, and is a perfect guy to pair with Broberg as he transitions to top 4 (that is, Kulak and Broberg as 2/3LD in 23-24).
It sounds like there aren’t many LD UFAs this year though, so that could drive his price up.
Kulak can skate and is better at defending at probably less than half the cap hit.He is also only 28!
I am not sure the coaching staff would agree. Kulak who I loved since I saw at the Penticton Youngs tournament (my off the radar pick to be a good pro that tournament). Looks good going north, but I thought he was slow into the corners to battle and light on the man in front of the net.
Close to the skill set to Bouchard for me, obviously with out the shot.
I fully anticipate Broberg to be on the NHL roster for most, if not all, of the season. I also expect him to have normal development season with ups and downs and probably some time missed with injury (given the league and his history).
Having Nurse, Keith and Kulak should not be an issue – Broberg should have to “earn his lineup spot” over an incumbent as opposed to “opening up a spot” for him. Both Broberg and Kulak also have NHL right side experience (and Broberg has played more right side than left in the last number of years).
I’m sure the team will need to use 10 plus d-men as per normal – there is no need to “let Kulak go” in the name of Broberg – in my opinion.
He is not a physical D but his skating, passing and defensive acumen are all top four calibre by my observation. His skills along with his experience should make him an excellent mentor for the young D. He can also play either side so depending on what his cap hit is going forward he can be a definite asset in my opinion.
Buying out Kassian would be a huge mistake IMO. You have to trade him, even if the cost is dear. If this team is a contender, cap space should be more valuable than draft picks. Creating dead cap space makes zero sense.
Very true. I think cap space is more valuable than draft picks.
To me any established NHL player not on an appalling contract is tradeable
Teams do it a lot, just not our team
The only thing is you may not get much except cap relief but that’s fine
For example name 5 forwards with Kassian’s skill set making just over 3M
Its a short list. He’s overpaid slightly but he has skill as well which most big fast guys that will fight don’t
He’s tradeable to someone. Like Seattle with oncoming youth and no functional tough guy
Huge mistake. Shouldn’t come to that.
Re Hunter1909 Evander Kane Poll:
Vote: 1
Is there a (what is the) line in the sand for a Puljujarvi short term deal/arbitration award where the number becomes a concern?
I’d like to see him remain an Oiler on a value deal as well, but as I’ve mentioned before, I’m worried about his agent and his ask (and what the arbitration award might be if it came to that).
Sakic and Yzerman are known for getting star players to take less for the benefit of the team. No idea if this is actually true and appreciate help in my quest for understanding.
Overpaying players: isformakingitnofurthethanNHLsemifinals lol
I have some concern as well re his health.
Fair enough, though much less of a concern on a short term deal.
Fun Summer Poll:
If Evander Kane moves on from the Oilers, and so long as Kane isn’t playing against the Oilers, who of Lowetide posters will cheer for him as he strives to make a rival team better?
VOTE YES = 1
VOTE NO = 0
Hopefully the off season just makes the team better and better, and next season Oilers score 117 points; as can not be bothered to worry about this team until Late September/early October.
In playoffs, because starting on the road is for cinderella teams and 90% of those fail.
Kane is gone! He’s getting a fortune from the Flyers or Bruins or someone who can’t resist the tough winger who has shone like a guiding light this playoff season.
Yes. However, this blog considers the offseason to be a major event as the process of building brick by brick occurs in real time. This is an important summer. I hope you have a worry free June-October, but rest assured we’ll be here discussing the events as they happen should you choose to pop in.
Thanks!
It looks like Oilers have developed a real swagger this past season.
Excited to see how Woodcroft brings everyone up to scratch.
But yeah, its a beautiful late Spring day here.
Cooper Marody gets a merciful release from the organization this summer, correct?
Reminds me of Damian Lewis’ line, playing Steve McQueen in Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time In Hollywood”, in reference to his love of Sharon Tate:
”Yeah, I never stood a chance.”
It will be interesting to see whether Tyler Benson gets same or not.
Presumably the team would like to retain him as a high end AHL veteran and NHL depth, but if the player wants a chance for a 2nd opinion (as you’d expect he might) then Holland may do him a kindness.
Unfortunately, I think the opportunity to do Benson a kindness passed when they sent him down and gave his number away to Brassard, an aging vet. What a kick in the balls that must have felt like. I felt so bad for Benson. I thought he played well, certainly better than the rental who took his number. I would have liked to see him get some minutes in the playoffs. Maybe Benson volunteered his number, but man, it sure looked classless to send someone down and take his number away from him. Like, “Hi Tyler, I’m afraid we’re sending you back to Bakersfield, and oh, you won’t be needing #16 anymore.”
Yeah, I don’t know. You can’t keep everyone (and their number).
They gave him 30 games and he didn’t move the needle. He passed through waivers with no takers, so it doesn’t seem like anyone else thought it was a major mistake either.
It’s clear he’s not a part of their NHL plans so I don’t know why you’d save his number.
Woodcroft knew Benson inside and out from years of observation. I have to believe the organization has made its call on his potential for an NHL career.
A career as a difference maker, yes.
He played NHL games for Woodcroft too, before the decision to send him out was made.
Marody is a Group VI UFA and I don’t imagine he signs with the Oilers – why would he?
I see no reason why Benson wouldn’t be qualified.
I’ve got to think Bourgault is also in this group for a cup of coffee.
Exciting group of young forwards in Bakersfield this year, even though most aren’t likely to impact the NHL for a while.
Yup. Scoring wingers tend to get opportunities earlier than any other position do they not?
Yup, pretty sure.
Do you or anyone else recall the expected timeline for Samorukov’s recovery?
I’d guess he has the 2nd best chance of sticking with the big club (as #7D) since he would have to clear waivers to be sent down. But that really only applies if he’s fully recovered and 100% ready for camp.