The draft always offers surprises, and this season is setting up to be an unusual trip through seven rounds for the Edmonton Oilers. I’ll predict the Oilers land five picks in this year’s draft, and that just two will be forwards. The next three days should be filled with loud noises from the Oilers offices and I’m pretty sure you’re not going to like some of them. Let’s have a look at how this week could go.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: The 2022 NHL draft has a chance to be unique in Edmonton Oilers history.
- DNB: Tyler Wright Q&A
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Is this Oilers’ year to find a world-class agitator in NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
OILERS MOCK DRAFT
It’s my belief the Oilers will make a trade on Thursday night (or earlier) and land an extra selection. Since that changes the previous mocks, let’s take care of what that list might look like.
- No. 35: RD Maveric Lamoureux (QMJHL). He’s 6.07, tough, massive wingspan, good wheels. Physical, all the tools for a shutdown role and he can pass and transport the puck. The Oilers will have their next shutdown defenseman if they take him, only question surrounds NHL ETA.
- No. 100: G Topias Leinonen (Finn Jr). He’s 6.05, 216, great numbers and consistency. He blocks out the sun and has a good glove hand, although Draft Pro (an excellent publication) has him needing to position his hands better. Raw but massive and talented.
- No. 158: LW Eric Alarie (WHL). Big skill winger. I had him No. 24 in 2021 and No. 99 this year, but he showed well this season and would be a terrific pick this late in the draft.
- No. 190: LC Connor Hvidston (WHL). Youngest player in the draft and he can play. He has a nice range of skills and is surprisingly effective without the puck for such a young player. He is what I like to call a “draft and follow” prospect, and if he doesn’t get chosen this year it’s possible he’s a significant pick in 2023.
- No. 222: LD Charlie Wright (WHL). Mobile defenseman who plays a steady game. He isn’t going to bring a lot of offense based on his 2021-22 numbers (1-18-19 in 58 games). Slightly undersized (6.0, 175), the boots and defensive ability are the attraction.
NHLE FOR OILERS PICKS, POSSIBLE PICKS
I like the group from the mock overall, would have gone with a forward with the first pick but it’s my belief the Oilers will draft several defensemen this year. Three added to Luca Munzenberger and Max Wanner seems a reasonable target and Tyler Wright is (based on his track record) a big fan of athletes. Lamoureux is a big man with mobility. Suspect he’s a target.
I WROTE A BOOK!
The book will ship on September 27, and you can click on any of the links to pre-order. This was a long time coming, and hopefully there will be opportunities to write other books.
Since you read the blog and I feel like we know each other, I wanted to offer some insight into how the book was written. Over 40+ drafts is a difficult task to take on, but I wanted to give each pick a fair shot in spite of what was a clear bias on my part. So I immersed myself in the pre-draft hype, the numbers, and used modern assessments of the boxcars to put a fresh view on things. What I came away with? Many surprises, a few raised eyebrows and a roller coaster ride through four decades and a half dozen scouting directors trying to put their stamp on a franchise. It’s a long book and I do think it’ll serve as an excellent reference.
It also explains why my time on the blog has been less than usual over these last two years. Sincere thanks to Ryan for making this puppy sing, and of course to Danny for years and years of work and innovation. I’m very pleased with the book, and hope you get a chance to read it. I will have about 100 copies that can be ordered through the blog if you’d like a signed book, more on that as the days go along.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show and of course any breaking news we’ll be all over in a heartbeat. We begin at 10, go through until 2 this afternoon and we’re on TSN1260. It’s me, Dave Jamieson and Matthew Iwanyk in a 12-round, no hold barred, act–well, it’s a fast paced and informative four hours without losing fun or momentum. No animals are harmed during the show. Guests today: Glen Suitor, Bruce Arthur, Adam Kimelman from NHL.com to talk draft, Shehan Jeyarajah from CBS Sports to talk about the changing look of US college sports. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter and we’ll talk soon!
Give me Howard!
Per McKenzie, Dylan Strome won’t be qualified.
With regards to a thread from a couple nights ago regarding tests to determine whether a teenage has completed his bone growth or not by radiological assessment. I spoke to a colleague in Radiology today who confirmed that late growth spurts can be accurately predicted by x-ray and new emerging ultrasound protocols … but are not as accurate with determining just how much growth is left, though they do provide an estimate that can be used as a guideline. There are some sports medicine groups who have tried to validate these measurement as a predictive tool with mixed success.
There’s an article up on the Athletic about the Pens 2013 draft … apparently, they did similar testing on Guentzel before drafting him.
Thanks to the previous poster who sent me down this rabbit hole. I’ve since read two scintillating review articles on the topic.
With regards to Hutson … the team drafting him has to be comfortable in letting him have 2-3 more years in college to fully mature physically. But if the talent is there he could be the goods.
A Ladi siting:
@LadiSmid
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5h
…and this is what it’s all abouthttps://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/2764.svg
(Click for photo)
Seeing Dennis King light up Twitter brings back great memories of Oilfans. He’s back and better than ever!
This is like the moment in Twin Towers when Gandalf flies down the mountain and kills all the orcs, the orcs in this case of course being Spector, Matheson, Stauffer, Leavins, and those other MSM ninnies.
If JP gets traded the Oilers are dumb and I can get over it, but watching DK dunk on these losers is hilarious.
He’s so ruthless he’s casting shade on 97/29 for not wanting to play with JP. DK used to have this line, years ago, something about sacred cows. Credit to him, he’s still going after everyone. Are there cows more sacred than 97/29? If you say things like that here, you’ll get downvoted to oblivion, which is why he’s better off on Twitter.
DK, you’re doing god’s work, keep going.
By far the best Oilers follow on Twitter.
Because he’s ultra negative towards the team and management? No surprise that you would get off on that shit.
You mean like him saying more about his own character than about Smith when he tweets that Mike Smith, by playing another season this past year is now going out as a joke. Really classless. His whole Schtick is to shock so that his followers lap up his stuff.
He can be harsh sometimes — same with me — and I don’t agree with everything that he says. For instance, I like Nurse a lot more than him.
That said he’s funny and generally well informed. Totally get that he’s not everyone’s cup of tea.
As far as Oiler MSM goes, they deserve to be dunked on, for sins past and present.
Dennis King has zero knowledge about McDavid and Draisaitl’s feelings about playing with Puljujarvi, other than internet and media speculation. Why do you continue to praise him like he’s some kind of apostle?
And Oilers fans wonder why we can’t have nice things?
Some people get off stirring the pot. Even though Connor and Leon are still youngsters they don’t take the bait, they’re way above these agitators
Denis King, LOL!
”My Sources” – LOL
Is be cowardly taking screenshots of posts over the internet, mainly from here, and condescendingly making fun of people?
The Oilers mainstream and inhouse media sort of scream it from the rooftops.
I used to really enjoy Dennis King’s stuff but I’ve turned it off over the years since I’ve felt the substance has waned and the tone has become more unreasonable.
I also want to say that although I don’t always agree with his takes or his writing, lumping David Staples in with MSM hockey writers isn’t a fair reflection of his role as a fan blogger or the increasing nuance and evidence he has started using over the years, particularly since his podcast with Bruce started, including the development of his qualitative research project on scoring chances.
There’s ways we can debate hockey and the team while showing kindness and respect to each other, and I appreciate in particular the bloggers who are doing this for their love of the sport and the team that help me to connect with it.
With the way you hyped up Dennis’ tweets I was expecting magic, but all I found was disappointment.
Instead of Gandalf, his tweets reminded me more of a troll who is rambling and raving to his small audience as they wait for the sun to come out so it can turn him into stone.
There is a fascinating discussion on twitter that has also kind of developed here (Redbird, BagofPucks, others on both side of the argument) regarding Puljujarvi’s market value.
I want to make my position clear: what JP returns is not necessarily his value as a player. But let’s forget about Puljujarvi and just think about any kind of market in general.
The why:
1) Arbitrage exists — buying in one market and selling in another for a profit. By definition, this exploits an efficiency *between* markets.
2) Lopsided trades happen *frequently*. Strome for Spooner. Ray Whitney on waivers. Satan for…Craig Miller?
3) Financial markets — undervalued equities exist (“value” stocks).
So, when someone like Staples, Matheson, or Spector goes on Twitter and makes this argument that “we’ll see just how valuable Puljujarvi is based on analytics when we see the return…”
…that is a very, very, very, flawed and frankly completely baffling way to understand any kind of market. Statements like these are a fabrication of reality.
If markets are perfectly efficient, all trades would be even. That is *far* from reality. Further, if smart management didn’t matter, we wouldn’t see smart teams constantly at the top of the pile in the regular season standings *and* winning cups.
The other thing that the MSM is leaving out is…if you have privileged information that gives you an advantage over a competitor…you don’t share that information with them, you acquire that asset for as little as humanly possible.
I am utterly shocked, because as much as I make fun of the MSM, I always assumed that they had some basic connection to reality. So much for that!
You might be overthinking this. Your points about arbitrage and financial markets don’t work when there’s only 1 unique item available.
The value of anything is simply defined by what someone is willing to pay to acquire it. Basic 101 theory.
I hate to admit but the MSM is mostly correct that the team that values JP the highest will show everyone how much they value him when they consummate a trade.
It doesn’t much matter who has what privileged info…If 2 or more teams want JP he will go to the highest bidder.
Everyone was shocked when Yakupov went for a 2nd….look where he ended up.
Of course there’s arbitrage with one unique item. Buy it and flip it to someone who will pay more. Doesn’t have to be the same day. Could be 6 months after a hot start, or after a good year.
Fair point with equities.
I’ll go further and use the example of an auction. I’m willing to pay a million for something, that’s my valuation. I get it at 500k. The fact that I paid 500k is not the valuation; it’s just what I was able to pay to get the thing.
Now you’re talking about consumer surplus, more basic econ 101 theory. You’re wrong bro
Then it isn’t arbitrage. Arbitrage is the combination of two essentially simultaneous transactions of the same item, usually in two different markets, to eliminate price risk and other risks.
This exactly.
In which Spector gets taken to the woodshed:
@stephen_burtch
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1h
Obv the Oilers… who don’t have an analytics department to speak of… know JPs analytics as well as any other team… Like all the other teams with analytics departments. https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/1544487863831920642
@stephen_burtch
This is like saying the person with an undiscovered Group of Seven painting in their attic OBVIOUSLY knows what it is worth, because they own it.
And if they sell it for $5 at a garage sale (because they clearly know what the painting is worth) that MUST be what it is worth.
lol Spec at this point is a walking and talking piñata.
@TSNRyanRishaug
· 32m
As many as four teams in the mix kicking tires on Puljujarvi. Sense is return is marginal at this point but things can change over the next few days.
The closer it gets to the draft the more his value increases.
It may actually get worse as teams focus on the draft and look at other options.
Why would that be?
This would be the path to him remaining an Oiler.
Same as last time.
Exactly … Holland can go to the market, then come back to his agent and let him know that “apparently” Jesse’s not worth more than a 3rd round pick. Then they can get down to hammering out the next contract extension.
That would be my take. Am I missing something in Reja thinking his value increases as time goes on?
With 3 or 4 teams interested in J.P I think if he’s getting traded it’s happening on draft day when everyone’s juices are flowing.
Maybe. I think the longer it goes on the more time there is for both sides to find a solution. Or maybe that is just my hope.
I believe Holland and Jesse had a hand shake deal when he returned from Finland. I guess we’ll find out if I’m wrong soon enough.
I said the same thing when this story first broke but what does waiting do to increase his value?
Brings more bidders into the fold if there’s 3-4 teams interested Holland may get what he desires at the draft table.
Something I havent seen brought up before.
What about sliding down from 1st to 2nd round and attaching kassian to that deal instead of flat out moving him with a 2nd or some other asset. Or is that too creative for our management team.
Kassian has $3.2Mx2 = $6.4M. In 2019, the Leafs paid the #13 pick (Seth Jarvis) more or less straight up to move 1 year of Marleau at $6.25M. Kassian has some value but the trade down likely isn’t close. Also too complex as a package due to so many draft scenarios.
Not sure you can do the math like that. For example kassian at 1.0 x6 is probably a deal any team would take. But 6.0 x1 would be an albatross.
Kassian at 3.2 is not desirable. But better than one year at 6.4. In my opinion anyway…
You can’t directly but it gives some approximation. Kassian has some value say at least $.75M to $1M. To be conservative 2x$.75 = $1.5M. So you find a team that would see value in that and compensate for $4.9M which is less than Marleau who had no value since he was bought out. How much less, probably a late 1st vs a mid 1st the leafs gave up. I think the Oil retain $1M x 2 and then look for a team who would take on $3M for a 2nd or 3rd if possible.
Kassian feels like a Chaisson type to me. He can play in the league, teams will have interest but he might be more of a PTO type if he was a UFA. So there won’t be interest or a market for a trade for him. But maybe there is a market to buy the pick.
Also, isn’t Marleau the single most expensive salary dump in history?
Perhaps Dubas was just foreshadowing his lack of appreciation for the value of a draft pick?
Agree, spent a bit of time looking for other comparables but didn’t find anything. This was just something that jumped out from memory. But based on my brief search it seems cap dumps are a rare bird and maybe more expensive than they should be based purely 9n value.
Yeah, I don’t have a full list either, but they seem to be all over the place.
I guess part is how much actual dollars teams are on the hook for, since the acquiring teams usually have internal budgets
Bishop recently cost a 6th(?), but his deal was insured apparently.
Holland moved Datsyuk’s $7.5M cap hit + pick 16 for picks 20 + 53, but I guess no real money because Datsyuk retired to play in Russia.
Ladd (2 x $5.5M cap) was moved for 2 x 2nd’s (and a 3rd if he plays no games this year). His salary is $4M, and he played this season (1 point less than Kassian btw 😉 ), so Arizona ate lots of real money and cap on this one.
And then Marleau.
Lots of others too, just trying to span the range from ‘little’ to ‘much’.
Some rankings for the Oilers 1st rd and possible trade down
1.Ostlund
2.Ohgren
3.Kulich
4.McGroarty
5.Beck
6.Schaefer
7.Snuggerud
8.Gaucher
1.Pickering
2.Chesley
3.Bischel
4.Rinzel
Trade down
Vinzenz Rohrer
Jani Nyman
Adam Sykora
Noah Warren
Isaiah George
Elias Salomonsson
Maveric Lamoureux
Tristan Luneau
Who’s your sleeper pick within the top 50 Rondo?
Dmitri Buchelnikov
Could be 6th 7th rd pick
Well played. I see you scrolled all the way down and saw my mock draft haha.
I’m going to follow him your pulse on the draft is commendable.
— So Awesome this book LT, can’t wait. I’ve got a few books from authors I know/met. But this will on of the books whose author I think I “know”: what a great part of your legacy to have published something…
— How do I go back and look for my post from a few weeks ago that had the original Arm Chair GM, to repost? Asking for a friend?
https://lowetide.ca/2022/06/23/the-foster-bossy-tapes/#comment-1136128
I had a rough idea when it was (a couple weeks ago) and then search the comment section using “CONTROL F” and used “kinger” as the query – no biggie
CBC News: “The war in Ukraine has added an increasing level of uncertainty for NHL teams interested in drafting Russia-born prospects because of questions regarding their availability to play in North America.
While no team has openly stated it would avoid selecting Russians altogether in the two-day draft in Montreal that opens Thursday, there is the potential of Russia being shut out in the first round for the first time since 2005”
I’d take a flyer on any top ranked Russian player who fell to us in round 2
OOPS…I mean Round 3…
OOPS ….I mean Round 4
OOPS…I mean Round 5
No. 100: G Topias Leinonen (Finn Jr). He’s 6.05, 216…….
He blocks out the sun AND has a good glove hand,….
This made me chuckle.
#MikkoPlus
Congratulations on getting that book done LT!! Absolutely aces and I do look forward to turning the pages. And as a last note, Thank you!
Would love a signed copy of the book, LT! Huge congrats on this, what an achievement.
High expectations on your new book, LT. I swear… your prose is so engaging you could write a shopping list and I would buy it… as would many others here!
Always a biiiiig fan.
Did Stauffer say on the radio Oilers don’t have a 1st rd pick?
Having a player of Grier’s size and shape that is able to play at the NHL level is always a good thing for a team. In any generation too.
That he was also talented enough to pop 20 twice and tough as all hell was a bonus.
6’1” 224lb tanks are hard to come by. Loved watching him play.
Those teams in mid-late 90’s were fun to watch. Even though they didn’t have a game breaker they had Heart and Goaltending. Joseph and yes Tommy Salo who is better than anything we’ve had in awhile.
Uhh Doug Weight was a game breaker.
Weight would have thrived in an era with less clutching and grabbing, the way he did in the mid 90s. Obviously an amazing career, still.
Favorite memory of him is watching him kick Marchment’s ass after almost getting his knee blown up.
Weight and Arnott my 2 favorite Oilers back in the day. It’s too bad Arnott had to leave town 6’5’ 225 Centre with hands. That a G.M’s wet dream figuratively speaking.
He didn’t necessarily have to…but the handling of situations like that showed Sather’s greatness.
Trades him for the machine known as Bill Guerin.
Sather was hard core but he had a soft side when it came to life’s problems. Pronger, Arnott and then there’s poor tortured Grant Fuhr to name a few, blame it on the water.
It’s those teams that solidified my fandom, and Grier and Marchant were favourites. The cardiac kids seemed to really give it their all even though they were often overmatched, and it felt like they punched above their weight because of it.
Congrats on the book LT, this is something I think the community here has been clamoring for for some time.
I won’t bother you for a signature but I’ll order my copy online and look forward to reading it this fall!
I was a kid in Lloydminster when the Oilers came to town for a training camp scrimmage.
Still remember walking alongside Marchant, amazed at how small he was (very nice person, signed a mini stick for me). Grier was the opposite – a mountain of a man. I’d never seen someone so huge. Very sharply dressed as well.
Side note, but Grier separated his shoulder about 100 times and would have it reduced in-game and come right back out.
That third line was one of my favs and I was floored that those two guys came to my small town. Dean McAmmond was also there. I was so nervous when I was in front of him, he asked me if he could sign something of mine while he was chewing a tuna sandwich.
Always thrilled when these guys excel after their playing careers. Mostly, I’m happy to see that they’re happy and healthy. Marchant and Grier put so much into their time here, and they were Americans, and it never felt like they were anything less than thrilled to be here, and so in that sense it was like they were around for 20 years.
Those teams, for me, were what the dynasty teams are for the slightly older generation.
All this is to say: Congrats Rosie!
I saw Grier in a World Junior game way back when. He was so much bigger than everyone it was almost comical. Everyone else’s jersey was loose fitting and it looked like he could barely fit into his. It will be interesting to follow his managerial career. Hope he does well.
It’s funny you say that because you know some guys have their height/size exaggerated in the media guide.
I swear to this day they did the opposite with Grier.
And what a skater. Hit like a freight train too, always clean, always hard. Even when his shoulder was busted!
One of my all time favs.
Lloyd probably saved the Oilers from relocating they had I believe 15-20% stake investment at one time when the threat was real. If someone knows more about this please chime in. McAmmond is from Grande Cache I remember still golfing at 11:30 pm in July many years ago. Lloyd and Grande Cache two hard working down to earth fun loving townspeople.
You’re exactly right. Bunch of the ownership group was from Lloyd, don’t remember the number.
If I remember correctly he did not even learn to skate until he was 12 or something. His father was a football coach and they moved to Boston and that is when he started skating.
I remember seeing Grier in an exhibition game in Calgary and my friend and I were saying his skating was terrible, there was no way he was going to make it!
It never looked like his legs could hold him.
I can see why he didn’t get through tryouts his 1st year at BU (they told him to lose weight apparently).
What a nice career he had. I don’t think you could appreciate it if you weren’t there. He’s definitely in a very small group of my all time favorite Oilers.
Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino published his own mock draft today, and the player he has the Oilers taking is one I hadn’t seen in any of the numerous mocks I’ve seen (for the Oilers’ pick, that is. It’s not like a Niinimaki situation or anything).
I like that there are so many ways the Oilers could go with the pick at 29. The sheer unpredictability of it is exciting.
Just what the Oilers need:
A 5′ 9″ midget defenceman to fuck up the 2022 draft with.
Puljujarvi now is like the virus a year ago. I know it’s important. I know people want to talk about it constantly. But I’m just exhausted at the mention of the name.
Even if I liked the player, I’d probably be pining for the team to trade him ASAP because I’m so tired of him dominating the daily bandwidth.
lol agreed. Especially because the majority of the ‘discourse’ is hyperbolic overreactions to a trade that has not yet happened.
He’s interesting to talk about because he’s a bell weather for how the franchise values players.
The franchise doesn’t determine the value of players. The market does. The Oilers have already demonstrated to the market how they ‘value’ Puljujarvi with the prime minutes and linemates they’ve given him.
In the case of Jesse, the Oilers are half the market as they are the potential seller. If they are trying to shop him and do sell, then they clearly value whatever they get in return more than or no worse than equal to what they receive in return. If they chose not to trade him, then they value him more than what the rest of the market is willing to pay for him. If he is not traded, the public will never be quite sure how much the Oilers valued him at that point in time, only that whatever the rest of the market offered it was not enough. We may find out what other team’s offered, but not how much more it would have taken to get the Oilers to trade. The franchise absolutely determines the value of the player to themselves.
The franchise’s assignment of player value is the contract terms they’re willing to offer. It takes two to tango in a signing so it’s inaccurate to say the franchise solely determines the player value. The player can leverage the market vs the team’s offer. Ipso facto the market decides the ultimate value. Puljujarvi’s agent has consistently shown he’s willing to use any leverage he can.
While you are correct that in the case of an RFA, there are now 3 parties who have influence over the outcome both in terms of contract term, $$ and location, it doesn’t change the fact that the Oiler’s management set their own value for Jesse’s services. The only question is will they get Jesse’s services or equivalent at a cost lower than where they set that value.
Market value and the value an individual participant places on the service or good being valued are not the same thing, it is the indication of market clearing price or where marginal cost equals marginal price. For example, if Jesse signs for $2 million, that’s the market at which his services got sold to the Oilers. But Edmonton might have been willing to pay $2.5 million or Jesse might have been willing to sign for $1.8. Neither party in an arms length transaction will generally ever know what the other party would have been willing to pay.
And just to be clear I never said the franchise solely determines the player value, only that they determine their value for the player – again 2 different things and consistent with the point Bling was trying to make.
Will wait until Training Camp:
And if he shows expect a good season from him. With lots of improvement.
You’d think that seeing as how the Numerologists like him there’d be some trade value.
In terms of what Edmonton could expect to get for Jesse if he is traded, the details regarding offer sheets for RFA does give some insight to his value today as an RFA. If Jesse signs an offer sheet, which he is eligible to do, and the Oilers do not match, I believe this the compensation table that applies:
a) Signed for less than ~$2.1 MM – Oilers get a 3rd round in compensation
b) Signed for between ~$2.1 MM to S4.2 MM – Oilers get a 2nd round pick
c) Signed for between ~4.2 MM to $6.3 MM – Oilers get a 1st and 3rd round pick
The first level is not a concern at all as Jesse wouldn’t sign an offer sheet at this level, and Edmonton would definitely match anyway. Anything above $6.3 million I am almost certain is not a consideration this year.
Scouts that have talked to Spector saying he is worth a third seems low compared to this chart, but the scouts saying he gets you a second is in line with this valuation. I think most believe that in arbitration, Jesse’s salary would end up somewhere inside this range and possibly in the upper half.
However, Holland has said he is not willing to trade Jesse for a second (though a 3 way deal where he can immediately turn the second into a player may be possible). Of course the value of any draft pick for 2022 can vary quite a bit depending on whose it is. Seattle vs. Montreal is a big spread. The spread on 2023 picks is less since pick order is still uncertain though Montreal’s pick is still much more likely to be valued than Colorado’s.
So if Holland is testing the market for Jesse and he wants a live player back, he’d be looking to get equivalent value in an actual player(s). An equivalent player already signed for next season or beyond had more value due to the higher certainty of both cost and term, so Holland’s best bet to get back an equivalent player is to take back an RFA. This all assumes Holland and his trading partner place the same or similar value on both players and the deal is one for one. Players like Crouse, Milano and Engvall fall in this range just to name a few.
If another team values Jesse in that range, but is only willing to offer the pick and not willing or able to provide an equivalent player(s), that team could wait and offer sheet Jesse and force Holland to choose between matching or taking the second. How high up in that b) range do people think Holland would match before opting to take the 2nd. Would he match at as high as $4 million? I think it is likely Holland would take the 1st and 3rd, if the other team went over $4.2 million (that might only happen if that team was certain they had the next Nichushkin).
The use of the the offer sheet table admittedly has the limitation that very few teams actually make use of offer sheets, so it is hard to really gauge how representative it is of the value of a 2nd rounder compared to the value of RFA’s likely to resign within that range. But it is still one objective marker that is out there.
Interesting.
I wonder if Carolina would offer a pick and, if turned down, fire off an offer sheet.
They’re not shy about rocking the boat.
Seems less likely. Kotkaniemi was partially payback for Aho. Plus Holland did Carolina a solid on Nedeljkovic last season. Never say never, but relationships are actually a thing in the NHL. Also would they value him at over $4.2 MM or think that Holland wouldn’t match at below that.
They could use the same tactic they used against Montreal.
Sign him to an inflated one year deal and then extend him at a lower AAV later.
I don’t think Dundon is the “clubby” type of guy and he’s been calling a lot of the shots in Carolina.
So what numbers do you think would work in that scenario with Jesse?
It’s not like Carolina and its fan base are thrilled with Kotkaniemi so far. They paid over $6 million in salary and cap space for a center who played mostly 4th line minutes all year, then pretty much had to re-up him and the $4.8 million for that promise. Didn’t do much for them in the playoffs either. It still may payoff since they have him now for 8 seasons and he’s young, but do they place that bet or similar 2 years in a row when the first looks iffy? What can the Habs do with that 1st and 3rd this year?
I brought up a trade with Carolina 3 years ago along the lines of J.P, Jones or Bear for Josh Anderson. I still think the Oilers are targeting Josh if they don’t get Kane. J.P would thrive in Carolina with the Finnish connection I’m surprised the trade hasn’t happened
That was Columbus. Carolina is different 😉
Yes that’s right I’ve got Sweet Carolina on my mind because of all of the Finns especially Aho. The trade idea was with Columbus because of the Finnish G.M. I thought he might try to resurrect and loosen Jesse up and get the most out of him.
The Oilers could do the same to Necas. With so little cap space available, I doubt anyone wants to start an RFA free-for-all offer sheet bonanza that would lead to mutually assured destruction.
Carolina currently has $19 million in cap space.
The Oilers have $7 million.
Never take a knife to a gunfight.
Not correct – Edmonton will have at least $11 million (with Klefbom going to LTIR) or more likely $13 million (with Smith going to LTIR). While Gardiner and his $4 million have been on LTIR since early this past season, he has now been cleared to play, so no additional LTIR for Carolina right now.
4 of their top 6 scorers (and 5 of their top 9) are also FAs. So they technically have the money to chase him, but they have other important fish to fry.
Congrats on the book LT – I’m down for a copy!
Put me down for a signed book LT. Congrats. That is awesome!
Someone posted a tidbit recently that 97 does get more of a say in roster decisions than a Crosby.
There were some vocal critics of this line of thinking, though it always was plain as day.
97 should ask himself why he likes playing with Kassian and not JP when it’s the former that nobody wants. He should also ask himself, if Keith comes back, whether he’d rather have a Keith or Kane on the team.
I’m hopeful that JP comes back based on DNB’s reporting.
I do wonder what everyone’s sources are. Gazzola and Spector are all in on JP out. DNB a little more guarded. Dennis King says an analytics department is coming.
Maybe there is daylight for JP to say. Of course, the captain could just make it so.
This movie has been played countless times the drama writers need some new material.
Hey Reja, here’s a little homework assignment for you: go look up the word substantive and then try really really hard to make that an apt description of any of your posts over the next calendar year.
Hay’s for Horses. I’m surprised a real Cowboy never tuned you in.
Douchie, condescending thing to say to anyone.
Because Kassian has his back. Jesse has no understanding of this.
Im in the camp now that believes Jesse wont be moved.
The Oilers are going to kill themselves if they don’t snap out of this top six and bottom six thinking.
JP is helpful anywhere you put him AND you always need a hedge for injury and/or underperformance.
I don’t see why Nuge, Yamo, and Hyman are locks for the top 6. Good players, but all three could make hay against softer opp.
You need three good lines to win.
Even if you desperately want to trade JP, the play is to wait a year for Bourgeault to matriculate and for JP to up his value further.
Ok Cassandra! We get it!
Brogan Rafferty’s Uncle Steve, that is so witty, are you aping on HH?
Har Har Har Har, can’t wait for what you come up with next.
Apologies. My ‘joke’ was a reference to LT poster Cassandra frequently deriding the binary of top-6 and bottom-6.
Isn’t Puljujarvi reportedly the one who isn’t happy with his role?
This based on his playing 11% of his regular season minutes without one or more of McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge, and then 29% of his minutes in the playoff without one or more of them?
Nuge and Hyman are substantially more impactful players than Jesse.
You also have to factor in what direction those guys will go in vs what direction JP will go in.
Nuge’s EV scoring is fine, but what if he declines some? What does Hyman look like with a lower S%?
I like all three players plenty, just don’t see how top 6 is a given for any guy.
Didn’t Kessel play on the third line when the Pens won the cup?
Still think JP is a fantastic hedge.
I don’t think JP is entirely correct to think this way. Just pointing out that making your top six right now is foolhardy.
What if Nuge/Hyman/Yamo regress? This isn’t exactly the early 2000s Sens with Alfreddson/Hossa/Havlat. I’d argue our only true top line wing is Kane, if he comes back. This of course excludes Drai.
Even if you believe in Bourgeault, it may be two years before he is as capable as JP.
I agree completely with all of that.
We can’t know much of anything for certain, but my impression is that Holland and the Oilers would be more than happy to have him back in the role you describe.
I see almost no evidence that the organization wants him gone because they don’t see him as a valuable player, but considerably more that the player may be moved because he isn’t happy with where he’s at.
Sid? Koskidaddy?
A must-read imo. Mark me down for a signed copy.
Congrats LT! Very exciting news!
Is there going to be book release party? Can the entire blog fit inside your garage?
Congrats on the book launch LT
Put me down for a signed copy please
Congrats on the book. What a perfect project for you! (And for me to read). Kindle version preordered, but would also love signed hard copy!
Congrats on the book. Great that you get to share your passion with everyone and be able to do something productive with it. Keep living the dream! Looking forward to your perspectives and some of the inside stories on the Oiler’s draft history.
Congrats on the book LT. I’ve been hoping that you would write a book for a long time as your prose is very enjoyable and relatable. Looking forward to reading it.
And now I can stop harassing him about “The Project” 🙂
By the way, love the title “On the Clock” and the cover; Connor McDavid Draft Board.
#TheRapture
Here’s an interesting rumor. Ondrej Palat to the Oilers if they don’t sign Kane.
Rumours all seem to be about aging vets.
Giroux (34) and now Palat. (31)
UFA Palat 50 pts $5.3m
Great target……IF The Price is Right.
Comon Ken Holland; You kane do this!
#WhaleHunting
I was hoping the Oil would of had a shot at Nick Paul. But the Tampas re-upped him.
Congratulations on the book LT!
I look for it’s release!
maybe there can be a spatial place for it someday at oilers Hall!
IF THE OILERS MAKE THEIR PICK AT 29, Who will it be?
You can list 5 names.
Here are Randle’s 5:
Pickering
Bischel
Snuggerud
Schaefer
McGroarty
Interesting chat this morning LT between Dave and yourself on the future of the CFL.
My take on the league is threefold.
1) For the hardcore football fan, something has to be done to address the growing talent gap vs the NFL which feeds the perception that the CFL is minor league ball. Theismann, Moon, Flutie, Rocket Ismail, Tom Cousineau. This league used to have a wealth of NFL caliber talent. They need to get back to that although I suspect the money the NFL gave them specifically prohibits them raiding the college stars as they did back in the day. The recent emergence of Canadian QBs is a positive but is it also an indication that the talent base is so depleted now that players that wouldn’t previously have contended for a starting role now can?
2) The league has to embrace mobile gamification to attract younger demos. Millennials and Gen Z live on their phones. The league has to address this with interactive apps to improve the in game experience. The geek has inherited the Earth. The league has to recognize this and realize they’re not competing vs other sports leagues, they’re competing against the XBox, Marvel movies, Magic cards,etc. This may be a bridge too far. Amongst my sons and their friends, the CFL is a complete nonentity. Passively watching a football game simply can’t compete with interactively playing a platform game in their minds.
3) Suitor is absolutely right. Poor officiating is killing the CFL. A major league like the NHL can withstand poor officiating. The CFL cannot. I watched the last Elks game and the game flow was excruciating. Frequent delays including repeated occasions when they called a penalty and then cancelled it while still having the attendant delay.
I give the league another 10 years max. It pains me to say that but the macro trends are simply not working in their favour and this league has always struggled with marketing itself. Couple that with the owners not having deep pockets and it’s difficult to prognosticate a bright future.
Registration for youth soccer and basketball are eating hockey, football lunch in terms of registered players. The writing is on the wall in terms of 9 year old sports.
This has been happening for years (decades?).
Hockey is a religion in Canada.
CFL Football a survivor.
Concussions and contact scare parents away from enrolling kids in football. You need a second mortgage to put a kid through Hockey. All you need for Soccer and Basketball is a ball and a pair of shoes.
Concussion for soccer is growing too – especially for GK. My son wears headgear
While certainly not as frequent as football and hockey, concussions are more common than you might think in youth soccer. Things like improper technique for heading, or heading the ball too often at too young of an age are some of the more usual causes. Inexperienced players sometimes panic with the ball as well, so instead of a simple pass to an open teammate for a clearance, a loose ball is instead blasted out of the defensive zone with not much thought as to what it may hit.
This is the truth. This trend has been happening for years. Hockey and football simply aren’t financially accessible to enough young Canadians. The quality and quantity of athletes in minor football and hockey is not comparable to 15-20 years.
As a result, in the long term, Canadian hockey players will be a small minority of NHL players. With that, there will be a decline in the number of Canadian based hockey teams.
Hahahahahahahahaha
Takes breathe
Hahahahahahahahaha
So I’m too believe that European nations, where cheaper sports such as soccer are already the top of the food chain will shift more kids into hockey despite it being more expensive and less well known? Doesn’t make too much sense to me.
Canadians likely to stay top of the heap for as long as hockey is a major sport. Only real competition is America.
When I was a kid growing up in the west end everyone played Hockey it was part of gym class as well. Hockey was part of our culture. Rich poor didn’t matter community leagues covered equipment for single mother families on a tight budget. We had bottle drives, sold raffle tickets, had bingo night. My my have times changed.
It’s a reflection of how grass roots the CFL has become that we think this is a core limiting factor. What % of NFL fans actually played tackle football? Likely a very small percentage of a massive global audience.
The CFL has simply failed to put a compelling product on the field, update it over time, and market it properly. The NFL is so good at this. They have a 24/7 news cycle that’s all about creating compelling characters and weekly narratives. It’s sports meets soap opera writ large. There is simply no compelling reason to watch Ottawa play Hamilton for the 4th time in a season. Don’t give people a reason to watch and they won’t, never mind getting them off their butts to the stadium.
The CFL doesn’t realize they’re in the entertainment business and that’s the biggest problem of all imo.
My perception of the talent level of the CFL is that it is way down from decades past. Maybe that’s just the impact of the last couple of years. Or maybe it’s just having to watch the hapless Edmonton team
You nailed a number of the many issues facing the CFL. I worked with Russ Jackson over 30 years ago in education and I recall having a conversation with him where he stated that football in Southern Ontario was on life support and that the CFL wouldn’t be of any relevance in 25 years time.
I think he was right unfortunately.
The league has to adapt to the new realities and understand that a revised schedule, fewer or more selective markets is the only way it can survive.
CFL has lost its older viewership and it has very little younger viewership. Being able to Gamble on the games has kept some folks still interested. Cricket will replace the CFL in 20 years.
I don’t know anything about cricket, but the minor pro leagues in soccer, basketball and lacrosse are all starting to nibble on the CFL’s fanbase.
Have been an EE fan since sitting in the Knothole gang area 60 yrs ago. The CFL has numerous problems as mentioned by others. The one that bothers me is player turnover. It seems most players sign one yr deals and constantly jump from team to team. The fans do not really bond or recognize players when they are only around for a year. The successful franchises (Stamps + Bombers) seem to do better on player retention. OH and poor officiating is a killer weakness!!!!!
Player movement is definitely a BIG factor in the league’s decline. Hard to build rivalries and player driven narratives when they’re constantly on the move. Why would any fan even buy a player jersey in this league?
posted this this morning. Got caught in the filter.
My biggest beef. The roster turnover is ridiculous. How can anyone build an allegiance to a team when your “favorite” players move around like an air force family in the 60’s.
Also the trend toward smaller (20k seats) stadiums is a good thing. Ambience is important.
A Grey Cup in early October would be nice.
4 downs wouldn’t hurt either
As well as $3 beer.
I look forward to the book from my favorite and now publish draft expert.
DeSmith re-signs for 2 X $1.8M – I wasn’t totally against him as a wild card option.
Wow that’s a great contract for the Pens. DeSmith must have really wanted to stay otherwise he should fire his agent.
Yeah, it would be nice if he were still an option.
Penguins may want Fleury back, making Jarry available.
True, although I think DeSmith is still the best value of any of those three. He’s got almost identical career stats to Jarry. Both are basically .916 over parts of four seasons. So are Varlamov and Campbell’s last 4 years (albeit with heavier workloads).
Colin White
https://www.tsn.ca/ottawa-senators-colin-white-buyout-1.1821331
For the love of God some make a trade all ready
I’ll trade you my Samsung Neo for your current device😊
Congrats on the new book! I’ll take a signed copy once they’re available.
Regarding the 29th pick in this year’s draft, I would think that it’s an overvalued commodity. It sounds good to acquire a first round pick, but how much more value does it have than a pick in the early part of the second round? I’d be looking to trade down.
Let’s hope Keith retires😊
While Keith’s retirement is clearly in the Oilers best interest should it not come about having him on a pitch count seems the best path. I have long advocated for defenders of all ages get prescribed breaks during the season, as they rarely play all 82 games due to injury and never play all the game fully healthy.
For an ancient player such as Keith, that has clearly lost a step, and a phalanx of young defenders in the leftorium needing NHL seasoning the need for this is plan is increased.
For example Keith should start his Xmas break a week early, giving him extra time off an a young defender a taste of the NHL. The same should happen later by extending Keith’s All Star break by a week. If possible another break post playoff spot clinch would be wise if the Oilers plan to play them in the playoffs.
If the Oilers are going to make risky bets on older players they should at least put them in positions to succeed by limiting the wear on there bodies during the long season.
Oilers management are hoping he does not retire – see DNB’s piece today.
Or at least that’s what they’re saying publicly. Given they proactively asked for an answer on whether he might leads me to believe in private they may have a different view.
Hope is an effective coping mechanism; Hope is a bad strategy
So is writing in the 3rd person hahaha 😉
Randle says eat @#$% !
KIDDING! 🙂
I sometimes talk in the third person as an excuse for eating for 3 people. 😉
And replace him with who exactly?
There is not much on the market in terms of LHD who could play his minutes as or more effectively. Kulak maybe (though he does not have much of a track record), but if Keith retires, Kulak will have more leverage, and this pipe dream of signing him for 2.5 million will be become a nightmare cap hit that starts with a 4.
The Preds just gave up an equivalent amount of assets for McDonough, who is (a) paid more, and (b) has twice as much term. Keith’s deal runs for 1 more year … keep him for 1 more year, get Kulak signed to something team friendly if you can, and work Broberg into the NHL slowly over the course of this upcoming season.
Don’t blow you brains out signing mediocre goalies like Campbell or Husso. Get an Eric Comrie, or trade for a young goalie that another team is down on (e.g. Blackwood, Samsonov), or can’t afford to resign (e.g. Georgiev).
If Kulak signs elsewhere and Keith retires … Broberg will be playing on our 2nd pairing next season … so yeah, they’re hoping Keith doesn’t retire.
At # 29 so many possibilities.
Pickering
Chesley
Bischel
Rinzel
Ostlund
Kulich
Snuggerud
Ohgren
Miroshnichenko
McGroarty
Howard
Beck
Schaefer
Gaucher
Perevalov
Lutz
Trikozov
Trying to narrow it down any of these 5 would be great. But, probably gone before #29
Ostlund
Ohgren
Kulich
Pickering
Chesley
we should do that golf betting thing where you get to pick a cluster of 5 players as to who will be the pick.
Brian Wiseman hired as an assistant with the Isles.
\Music! Well done, LT and congratulations…
Your Dad would be proud of you.
Heard an interesting hypothetical today. Oil trade the rights for Puljujarvi for the rights to Campbell. Could give Holland the inside track on one of the more coveted goalies this offseason.
Personally I’d rather the Dutchman swings a trade for Georgiev.
What? Jesse is an RFA under team control.
The rights to Campbell would be like a conditional 6th (pick only goes of he signs).
That is essentially a nothing return.
Saw it on Twitter and passing it on. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Sorry, my response was to the suggestion, not for the message.
With that side, i would take issue with describing it as “interesting” – it would be the most horrid return imagined – I can’t believe someone imagined it in good faith.
Probably HH!
In Kyle Dubas’s world, the rights to Jack Campbell is a 2nd round pick.
Lol. So true. This for a guy he doesn’t value at all.
Apparently, they offered Campbell a contract early this season that was just laughable. And yet his backup, Mrazek got a sweet 4 year deal north of 3 million.
Imagine your backup getting paid more than the starter. That is Dubas.
Hayley will have his Job in 2 years after 2 more first round departures.
Hello!
A hearty congratulation on adding author to your voluminous list of job titles LT. A true Renaissance man!
That author bio on Amazon is hilarious.
Jack Campbell
It sounds like he is the target. Given his age, track record, and expected cap hit ($4.5 – $5M) it’s probably as good a bet as any. Costs only money.
It’ll depend on how aggressively New Jersey or say Buffalo wants to pursue him and whether Jack wants to chase a Stanley Cup playing for a Canadian team.
I think you can win a few playoff rounds with Campbell. He’s not a top-5 goalie, but he’s in that range of capable starters. It would be nice to be set at the position, but I’m worried about the upcoming bidding war.
With the right system in place, I’d say he’s a much better option than James Reimer.
Salutations and congratulations, LT. Count me amongst the legions of those who wish to procure a signed copy of your book.
When it makes it to the brick-&-mortar stores, will it be filed under Drama? Humour? Tragedy? Might depend on which particular era, I reckon.