Last season, in the period between draft and free agency, I wrote the following: The RH side of Barrie, Bear and Bouchard has the feel of too much puck mover and not enough suppression. I expect, and it’s good to be prepared, for a wildly unpopular trade involving one of the youngsters. Edmonton could try running two righties on a third pair, and I looked at adding Brenden Dillon from the Washington Capitals (Caps need cap relief) but it doesn’t work. I did like the idea of Dillon playing with Bouchard, though. Anyway, I’m not sure what Holland will get for a young RH blue and wish he wouldn’t, but you can see it coming like a wild prairie storm building on the horizon. The trade was Ethan Bear to Carolina. I wrote that on July 21, 2021, the day Ken Holland signs Cody Ceci. Bear was dealt one week later.
You know what’s weird? This year’s Ethan Bear might just be Warren Foegele. Life is strange.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- DNB: Oilers’ Duncan Keith to retire, opening up more possibilities for Ken Holland
- DNB: Oilers’ Zack Kassian trade clears crucial salary cap space, so what’s next?
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
NHLE’S FOR OILERS FIRST-ROUND PICKS SINCE 2010
I wanted to post this yesterday but didn’t have time. This is the NHLE for each first-round pick since 2010. There are several things worth nothing, and they include Connor McDavid way the hell and gone with 67.6 NHLE points per 82 games. Also interesting: All the forwards over 40 points NHLE are big stars, save Nail Yakupov, and he’s another chapter for another day.
The group in the 30’s features a future impact player (he’s kind of there now) in Evan Bouchard, along with the Nuge and Kailer Yamamoto. Now, Yamamoto is an outlier on this list, in a good way, as his NHLE is one of the best on the list in spite of his lower draft number (22).
The men in their 20’s are Jesse Puljujarvi and Reid Schaefer. One will carry the weight of being a top-five overall pick for many years, and the other posted an NHLE in the range of expectations based on going No. 32 overall. The spot in the draft a player is chosen does impact expectations, and after a dozen years of high picks Schaefer has a low bar for success in the future. It’s just the way it is.
BEING WARREN FOEGELE
This shouldn’t come as a surprise (I wrote about it here) but Warren Foegele had a reasonable season and I believe the smart play is to keep him on the roster. He performed well enough over the entire year and should be better in year two. There is danger here, and it’s somewhat similar to the Ethan Bear issue mentioned above from one year ago. In Foegele’s case, there are less expensive (and less experienced) options avilable for No. 3 left wing, and a player like Dylan Holloway is close enough to project into the opening night lineup. Is Hyman-Nuge-Holloway deep enough for the top three lines? If the Oilers need more money, and I think they will, then changing out Foegele for Holloway allows them another $1.5 million or so dollars to spend elsewhere on the roster.
There have been reports that Oilers management are finding the trade value for Jesse Puljuarvi is low. That should surprise no one, as the teams who value what JP brings are more than likely analytics clubs. The evidence is clear for all, but many choose not to believe what Puljujarvi accomplished even in a season of illness and injury. Consider these five-on-five numbers:
- Puljujarvi-McDavid: 604 minutes, 58.8% Shots; 69.4% Goals; 61.3% Expected Goals
- Puljujarvi w/o 97: 324 minutes, 52.3% Shots; 56.7% Goals; 56.3% Expected Goals
- McDavid w/o JP: 723 minutes; 55.2% Shots; 52.7% Goals; 56.9% Expected Goals
I think fans intuitively see Puljujarvi as a part of the furniture instead of an active contributor. The experts tell me 200 minutes is the line in the sand for trust, and the 97-13 combination had 604 minutes together. They averaged 3.38 goals-per-60 at five-on-five, and allowed just 1.49 goals-against-per-60 on the year. Away from McDavid, Puljujarvi still thrived, goals-for 3.15 per 60 and goals against 2.41 per 60. Such a fine year.
NEW for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2022
https://theathletic.com/3410808/2022/07/10/edmonton-oilers-prospects-top-20-2022/
On the station this morning, LeBrun thinks Campbell is heading to Edmonton.
Per Seravelli:
Hearing #Oilers and Evander Kane’s camp met on Sunday and remain far apart on a contract extension, making it more likely than not he’s heading to market at this point.
Per Dreger:
Senators GM, Pierre Dorion is working it. Sounds like activity around veteran forward, Connor Brown has intensified. The Oilers are among a few times still in the mix there.
—————
I don’t imagine a Brown trade is consummated without Jesse going the other way……
Depending on the other pieces involved, this would be similar to the Bear/Foegele deal for me in the sense that I like Bison and do not want him going anywhere, but I also think Brown would be an excellent fit both on the ice and off. Doesn’t hurt to have another BFF of McD that can also really play and contribute.
Conner Brown does not really do anything for me.
Interesting article in the Toronto Star today about how more GTA born players are choosing to take home town discounts since the Leafs signed Tavares … I wonder how long that last when Leafs fans turn on Tavares next season?
One important bit stood out for me .. Michael Bunting went on record stating that he took less money to sign with the Leafs.
That should put the whole Hyman versus Bunting thing to bed now. Hyman is a Toronto born player who we had to pay market value for to secure his services. Bunting is a Toronto born player who took a hometown discount. Not getting Bunting instead of Hyman is not a failure of our analytics department, nor is it evidence of Dubas superiority as a GM… it’s just a matter of fact that Ontario-born players comprise 18% of the NHL, and some of them will take home town discounts.
Should being the key word.
It is an important thing to keep in mind for sure though. Giordano’s deal (which is completely absurd) is another good example.
The more important thing to remember about Bunting is that he’s one in a million. There are a tiny handful of players who do anything resembling what he did last year at age 26. I’m not convinced any team can reliably identify them (possibly Colorado? though Nichushkin’s 1st deal with Colorado is the only one I can think of that’s comparable to Bunting).
Since Varlamov won’t come here, I think it behooves the Islanders to trade us Sorokin instead, if they want Barrie.
Stand aside, Reimer. Sorokin is now my number one target.
Lol.
Is there any actual indication they’re targeting in Barrie? (sorry, I’m not very plugged in to the NHL rumour mill).
Mayfield sure would be a nice, cheap, RD option for at least one year if they Isles really are into Barrie.
No – it’s mostly media speculation and Oilers blogs that think NYI wants Barrie. Don’t understand why though – they have Dobson and Pulock to run their PP.
Thanks. Yeah Dobson seemed to do alright there. Looking closer I realize they would also have to trade a RD in order to add Barrie (Dobson, Pulock, Mayfield are all RD). Not inconceivable, but RD (even offensive ones) are not their biggest need.
Not Barrie specifically but Lou L. did say straight up that he wants to acquire more offence from the blue line – this was months ago as the season ended.
You are probably right that he won’t come here, from accounts he has had Edmonton on his list. At the same time, he is now in a contract year and the clear 2nd option for the Isles. Perhaps, and this is just spit-balling, Varlamov MAY see Edmonton as a great opportunity to maximize his value for his next contract – its only one year and he’d be the clear number 1 on a team that should be a contender.
Probably not but possibly.
Also, he may be the “best option” of the one-year stop gaps but also the highest cap hit and likely highest acquisition cost.
He seems kind of like the type that likes bright lights, big city. I don’t think he will come here.
Lou got Romanov
i don’t think Barrie is in his plans anymore
Given everyone wants a goaler he’ll have no problem moving Varlamov
Also given Lou is cheap although I like mayfield I’m not sure why Lou would move at his contract. He’ll fetch a haul at the deadline if he does want to move him
But who knows?
If Philly wants to try for Gaudreau they will have to move some money. Since they signed DeAngelo they have five well paid defensemen and one might have to be moved. Could Travis Seiman be an effective 2nd pair left D on the Oilers? Would he be an upgrade on Kulak?
I think they want to move Proporov – I am not fully up to speed on this player but I think he put up huge offensive numbers early, signed big, and hasn’t performed as expected?
Is Ellis healthy? They’ll have 3 RD (top 4) if he returns. I’d guess DeAngelo means he may not be healthy, though IIRC he was also sheltered at evens last year, so maybe they plan to run him 3rd pair if everyone’s healthy.
And I’m not sure why they’d moved one of their 2 main LD in Provorov. I haven’t kept up on him so much either, but he still plays a ton for them. He’s led the team D in TOI by at least 2 minutes per game every year of his career.
They have been shopping Provorov. I assume just for the cap space
Yeah they need cap space badly if everyone’s healthy.
If they are moving Provorov they must be planning to play one of the righties on the left. Or perhaps a larger overhaul since they’ve been an incredibly disappointing team for a number of years.
Hawks are letting Dylan Strome become a free agent as they aren’t going to qualify him. Surely they could have traded him and got an asset back, no? What am I missing here? I think his Q.O. was $3.6 mln which isn’t bad for someone who got 48 points last year. Maybe it’s time for an adult to take back control of the Hawks?
They are trying to get Kane, and Toews to waive their NMCs now, rather than next summer, so they can maximize the return of assets for both players.
I think they have tried to trade D Strome, no takers. Kane wants out and probably Toews, so I don’t think Diablo is right
I can’t imagine there wasn’t at least one team that wouldn’t have paid them a middling draft pick. Kyle Davidson has just traded and non-tendered a qualifying offer to both of Kane’s linemates.
If that’s not a giant GTFO to Kane (and Toews) then I don’t know what is.
Chicago maximizes the value they can get back in a trade by getting Kane and Toews to waive their NMCs, and trading them with 50% retained. Next summer the Hawks get nothing. Right now teams are still flush with cap space and the Hawks won’t have to take back any contracts with term. Both these players are at peak value right now.
Davidson is intentionally making his team so bad that Kane and Toews will ask out now, instead of on their terms next summer when they’re both UFAs.
I don’t think Toews is worth that much now,BTW one of my favourite players. I really don’t know what they are up to, aside from the fact next years draft is strong and the top 2 players maybe generational
Maybe the Hawks are ripping apart the team that helped cover up the Kyle Beach sexual assault. Maybe there is still toxic culture present (would not surprise me in the least.)
Honestly I respect them for an org if that’s what’s up. If not I have no idea what they are doing. Something is rotten in Chi Town and it appears the new GM is cleaning up the mess.
That’s an…interesting take. But Davidson’s behaviour is so nuts I honestly have no better explanation.
But given they’re burning it down to the ground, I’m not sure the cap space argument really applies. I still think that rationally, in terms of return, it would be better to wait on Kane until the trade deadline. Yeah, sure, they can only retain 50% and nobody contending will have $5.25 cap space then. But everyone has bad salary they can shed and Chicago will have nearly infinite room to take it back. I don’t really see how that could be the main factor. Shopping one year of Kane with a full NMC is not an easy thing. The idea that pissing him off is going to help doesn’t really seem right.
But I got no other, better, take on Kyle Davidson.
If Strome didn’t sign the Q.O., what does he get in arbitration? Do teams view him as a player that will be worth what an arbitrator might award on the limited criteria that they are allowed to use.
Its possible the teams were afraid that if they trade for him, then make a Q.O., Strome might still file for arbitration. If the judgement was anything less than ~$4.5 million they have no option not to sign it. If it is higher, they have the option to walk. Once they Q.O. him, they could end up having to pay $4.5 million for him, not just the $3.6 million offer. If they believe this, why give up an asset to negotiate with him with arbitration hanging over it, when if he goes to UFA it becomes just a straight up negotiation, with their offer needing to just be slightly better than the next highest suitor. They might not get him, but they might prefer that to possibly paying him over $4 million and being down another asset.
We’re all looking for rational decision making … but maybe Davisson’s plan is to burn it all down. Anything that can be traded goes … anything that needs a contract he’s getting rid of. And they’ll keep tanking until they get a generational player.
That’s how the last dynasty team in Chicago was built.
I didn’t realize that Strome had a really nice offensive season.
Its now shocking that he won’t be qualified.
I understand the potential premise listed in this thread but, even if any of them ring true, they are still just giving away a solid asset – that’s just pure management in my opinion – unless there really is more to the story.
The more to the story is they don’t believe he is a solid asset at $3.6 million or more nor could they find another team that believes it either.
Does Ken Holland pull Nick Leddy out of the bargain bin in the late summer?
I’d like to see them add Kulak AND another LD on a short term deal(UFA or trade)
I’ve mentioned Soucy previously
Leddy would work, but with a UFA signing you’re going to have to give term (unless, like you suggest, he’s available later in the summer)
I guess it depends who and how much
I’m surprised he is only 31. Loved him as a Blackhawk but that was a long time ago. It looks like Detroit chewed him up a bit last season.
If you believe at all in advanced stats, he’s been playing over his head for years. He was under water in the last 6 of his 7 years on Long Island, that just continued in Detroit, and I believe also in St. Louis after the deadline.
I don’t think he’s worth what his reputation says he is, but if he’s in any sort of bargain bin later in the summer, then by all means.
Thanks. And for the record I believe in collecting all the information available including statistical analysis. I think the most accurate info comes from video analysis.
Kulak and Matt Benning.
If they are moving Barrie, which i don’t think they will, maybe step up to see what Mayfield costs. I think the Isles would be interested in both Barrie and JP (not that I think they should move the latter) and maybe even the likes of Foegele.
Edmonton Elks Fan Appreciation Day today.
All six fans were in attendance.
#Winning!
How the mighty have fallen…….
Self-inflicted imo.
Just a decade long comedy of errors.
Nobody cheers for Cowards.
You literally have no idea
So long Gizmo, Ham, Allen, Sandusky, it was an awesome ride!
Yamo, JP, McLeod, Benson all receive qualifying offers from the Oilers
Perlini, Safin, Berglund not qualified.
Tyler Benson. Just hangin around. Nice.
I was expecting Benson to get a nod. That is nice.
You never know what a good athlete can learn in one off-season. Both a reward and an opportunity for a committed pro.
And he’s not far from contributing, even though he’s no longer sexy.
No surprise there really except I thought Perlini MIGHT receive one.
There was no reason to just let Benson go to UFA – as far as “giving him an opportunity” – he was offered to the entire league for free at league min last year and had no takers.
Caveat: Difference between signing and a waiver claim is the latter needs to stay on the roster (or back on waivers).
Apparently Matt Murray is willing to waive his NTC for Edmonton…? He’s 28 and apparently Orr is willing to retain part of that $6.25/yr cap hit. He’s young and has played big games.
Depending on price, I’d prefer him to Kuemper (who looks less than spectacular – good not great). Campbell may have more upside to come but Darcy is all knowns, as is Murray…. I’d say Campbell is only justified if that unknown on future ceiling is not paid. At this point, given the starting goalie shortage, no real great deals can be had at UFA. Murray’s NTC constraint might be just what the doctor ordered….,
thoughts?
Murray is one of the worst goalies in the NHL. Seriously … he would get lit up in the AHL. He plays deep in his net like Smith, has a terrible glove like Koskinen, and can’t even keep his 5 hole closed. On top of that he can’t stay healthy.
He’s another Jim Carrey.
Murray hasn’t been in peak form for three or four seasons now because of injuries, and has been often less than adequate. He was on his way to being Canada’s goaltender, but that was three Oiler coaches ago.
50% retained, the cap risk is acceptable, but the performance risk is pretty high.
I think one is more certain what one is going to get with Reimer or Allen.
I don’t like the contract risk with Kuemper or Campbell, where the number and duration would be high.
Now Allen might not be available, but he would be my preference in terms of risk/reward/performance.
All of the choices come with risk, but different types of risks and costs.
If Matt Murray is healthy, he is the best goalie of the lot, but he hasn’t been healthy in forever.
Godot, I doubt Allen or Reimer are on the block but everyone is available for a price. Curious what would you offer for each of them.
Barrie for Allen is my trade. Petry is going to be traded.
Why Allen over Reimer?
Barrie for Allen is reasonable if the habs are confident Price is available/healthy. Doubt they are confident. The habs might be willing to move Allen but we probably have to pay more for the hassle of getting a new backup who can play as a reasonable starter.
Would need double retention for me. Even 3.1 is too much
By all accounts he was….an uncooperative teammate during his time in Ottawa. No thx. I’d rather have koskinen back.
Knowing Dubas he will get Arizona to trade for Murray, half retained, and then flip him to Toronto for another 50% retention for a first rounder. 😉
I can’t wait for Leaf nation to implode next season, when Murray sewers another season of Matthew’s contract. How long before we can start talking about Matthews joining Connor and the boys in Edmonton?
He’d break records for goals scored that might never fall patrolling the wing for Connor. 😉
Hypotheically:
If Kane’s SJ contract is re-instated and he wants to play in Edmonton, what other 2 teams does he pick for his NTC? Minnesota, Tampa? Two teams guaranteed not to be able to afford his services?
In that case, if Grier is stuck with only Edmonton as a suitor, is Dutch schrewd enough to work a trade with 50% retained???
Imagine a world where we bring Kane back for only 3 years at $3.5MM
I know this is unlikely…maybe an 11.5% chance it comes true!
Maybe PJ and a 3rd for Kane at 50% off…does Grier bite the bullet and proceed?
Then go get the other Kane, too, 50% retained.
#TwoKanesAreBetterThanONe
Maybe it would force him to toss Reimer in as a sweetener.
Found this Leaf’s Fan post humorous:
“Dear Kyle, You have provided me with so much entertainment since you have been with the Leaf’s I feel bad asking for more, But if you can just make this one last deal happen and bring Matt Murray to the Leaf’s, I will never ask for another thing, I promise, This move alone will provide me with all the entertainment I need for the whole hockey season and make the price of the center ice package worth while; Mr. Dorian please whatever you do make this deal happen, don’t let a pick or a couple dollars hold this up.
Signed, Canada”
Leafs fans everywhere are trying to talk themselves into this … dumping Mrazek so that they trade for a worse version of him in Murray.
As fan bases used to disappointment are prone to do.
The Leafs should have secured Campbell’s services with a contract extension last summer. Instead they grabbed Mrazek.
I’m surprised Dubas bailed on Mrazek so quickly. If he can stay healthy he’s at least as good a bet as Murray to give them decent goaltending.
If they do trade for Murray, surely they’ll add a UFA 1B, right? (Murray and Kallgren doesn’t seem plausible, does it?). Murray + Mrazek could have been a somewhat reasonable bet, similar to what Colorado is doing. Murray + Kallgren looks more like Dubas is trying to lose his job.
I’m sure they will be alright. I hear they have a crack analytics department. 😉
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. 😉
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
12m
COL announces three-year extension for Alexandar Georgiev. AAV is $3.4M
Woof. That is a spicy meatball.
So much for going cheap with goaltending.
that is a steep price for a reclamation project
I’ll take NHL starting goaltenders for under $3.4 million, Alex.
I’m sure Colorado would too. We’ll see if they get it.
So if Strome is going to Ufa, would Hyman, Kane(or ufa), Yamamoto, puljujarvi, strome and Holloway be palatable for the top 9 wingers?
I for one think it could be pretty amazing if Strome & McDavid manufacture the same chemistry in the bigs that did in juniors… It would be pretty amazing seeing McDavid pop a hat trick every couple games. (LOL)
OP, just to answer your question from yesterday re: Schaefer and the WJC Summer Camp coming up, it looks like that is for the regularly scheduled December tourney.
Sorry for the delay, was out of cell range for quite awhile thus wknd, just getting caught up now!
I’ll take December for Schaefer.
Is Bourgault in the summer one?
I don’t know if there is a camp for the August team, I doubt it. My understanding is the teams for Aug. are basically the same as the canceled one, unless there are injuries I’d assume.
What I do know is that if a player was eligible for the canceled one they can still play in August, which means we should be seeing Borg, Munzenberger and Matta(!) again. I hope the latter can replicate and expand upon his dominant 2 game performance from last December.
Any idea why Munzenburger is listed as attending development camp starting tomorrow. I thought NCAA prohibited such things or am I misunderstanding the rule?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXUx7nOVsAUzZsw?format=png&name=900×900
There are much more knowledgeable ppl on this topic than I but I believe if you totally pay your own way you are allowed to come?
I may be confusing this with the actual Sept. rookie camp tho, in which case Devt Camp may be fine for all to attend but the restrictions are on the later Rookie Camp (so no Munzenberger in Penticton, for example)
Thanks. I thought I knew the rule but old age isn’t kind to the memory.
DEVELOPMENT CAMP ATTENDANCE RULES
The NCAA permits players to attend NHL Development Camps in July but there are strict rules for doing so without losing their amateur status as defined by the NCAA.
In a nutshell, the NCAA requires collegiate players at Development Camp to pay their own way (including transportation costs, hotel and food) for all but the first 48 hours at camp. The “48-hour rule” partial exemption that allows teams to cover hotel and food for two days applies only to first-time attendees. The 48-hour clock starts ticking upon arrival at camp. All attendees must pay for their own round-trip transportation. Returning attendees must pay their own way for the entire duration of their stay, which technically includes even food.
The NCAA has a once-per-team addendum as pertains to the 48-hour-rule for Development Camp. For example, James van Riemsdyk‘s brother, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Trevor, attended Development Camp both with the Flyers and Ottawa Senators while he was a student at the University of New Hampshire. The 48-hour-rule on partial expense coverage applied to both teams’ Development Camps.
Even if the player fully pays his own way to Development Camp, the NCAA has additional rules that govern attendance. The most important rule is that players may not miss any classes at school in order to attend either a Development Camp in July or an NHL Rookie Camp in September. Thus, if a player is registered for summer classes at school, he cannot attend an NHL Development Camp.
Come Rookie Camp in September, every NCAA prospect is affected (which is why they do not attend).
The NCAA’s eligibility rules even affect things such as players’ ability to keep pro team swag such as hats or t-shirts or their jerseys from the scrimmage at the end of camp. These are considered “material benefits” by the NCAA, so Development Camp attendees either must pay the team for the cost of the items, return them at the end of camp or donate the items to charity.
Good stuff. Thank you for clarifying.
Thanks for that.
..
Thank you
Have you guys heard about the new pipeline expansion?
It’s called “Energy West” (flows east to west)
Barrie
Ceci
Hyman
Campbell
Who’s next?
Ilya Mikheyev?
Connor Brown?
Came back from camping and saw Forsberg resigned in Nashville.
I thought HH told us he was going to sign with LA?
Fancy that.
You spelled Fiala wrong.
Am I the only one who is suspicious of Skinner as an NHL backup?
Who are some Skinner comps? Someone comfort me!
Skinner has paid his dues. The only way to develop a goaltender in house is to give him his chance once he has paid his dues. Or else, why draft goaltenders at all.
The OIlers did not rush him. They made him put in the time. He has steadily improved. He got his cup of coffee last year, and did fine.
Not worried at all.
Starter: Campbell
Backup: Skinner
LTIR Smith
THAT is some serious risk mitigation imo.
I would be surprised if Smith didn’t start playing halfway through season
I can’t see it if Holland blows his 6 million dollar load on Jack or Darcy. If Holland only gets a stop gap for a year like say Allen then yes I think Holland knows Smith will be back after Christmas ready to roll.
Husso is a legit comp.
If we don’t see a signing for an experienced #3 tender as the 1A in Bakersfield, that is what you should be worried about.
Smith is done.
I won 2 cups with Skinner as my starter in my NHL 19’s Be A GM mode 😉
This is exactly the type of reassurance I needed!
From Leavins:
Some have also mentioned Cam Talbot, who may end up on the market after the Fleury signing in Minnesota. I have all kinds of time for Cam. He gave the Oilers a lot of quality minutes while here and was a model citizen in Edmonton. But I would suggest to you that we do not always see everything that transpires when a player leaves an organization the first time. And sometimes, that means “you can’t go home again”. I will leave you with one last goalie name to ponder: James Reimer.
That’s only part of bullet point 3, the rest is here:
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/as-a-critical-week-arrives-for-the-edmonton-oilers-do-they-step-forward-or-back-9-things
Now we’ve been all over Reimer on this site, some since the trade deadline when spending an asset would’ve been wrong. It makes a lot more sense now, but this is the first I’ve seen anyone in the media stating it is a possibility.
Just so this isn’t lost and for edification, the second part is not do-able. If Jesse files for arbitration, he is not eligible to sign an offer sheet.
Nothing I said contradicts that.
Option 1) A team cannot make an offersheet until the QO is tabled.
Option 2) A team will wait till near or after the arbitration hearing after Holland has used up all his cap space to make a trade offer.
Is that clearer for you? Do you understand what “Or alternatively” means. “Or alternatively” is there in black-n-white. Redbird was asking when the smart team would make the trade offer of a 2nd round pick.
So Puljujarvi will be settled withing the next week, or we are waiting till mid-August.
Your post dealt with offer sheeting Puljujarvi and implied it could be done later in the summer closer to the arb hearing.
Nothing in it about trading for Jesse.
Sorry, that’s just how it reads.
//Redbird62
July 10, 2022 9:19 am
So far, no ‘smart’ team has offered just enough for Jesse since he is still an Edmonton Oiler. So if anyone has made a bona fide offer, it has been less than what the Oilers value him at.
If there are 2 or more smart teams that value Jesse and want to trade for him, just enough will also have to be more than the other team’s offer, not just what the Oilers value him at.//
He is asking when will smart teams make an offer for Puljujarvi.
I said.
1) They will offer sheet him after the QO
or alternatively
2) They will wait to near or after arbitration to make the offer of a draft pick in trade.
It is all perfectly clear.
So, it is in Holland’s best interests to bring him back at close to 3 mil on a 1-2 year deal. No?
I wonder how much Kubalik and/or Strome get if they aren’t qualified by Chicago.
I am fine with Foegele coming back. I think he only gets traded in a hockey deal or if they need the cap space.
He is a legit fully paid average 3rd line LW.
After getting my two year Covid degree in hedonic substitution, I noticed bacon was under $5 at the store this morning. I think it is time for second breakfastses…
Superstore bacon ends. Best bacon on the market no matter how much you spend and it is quite inexpensive. Look in the freezers in the meat department.
You will thank me later.
I’m partly kidding, but was shocked to see the price drop. Only have a No Frills here. Do they do the same? I’ve done their PC generic bacon, but it was not up to grade on the hedonics.
Not sure about No Frills but dead serious about the bacon. Because it is just the ends it is all uneven etc. but well smoked.
I have a son who likes to buy his organic bacon from an expensive downtown butcher in Victoria. I put the Superstore ends up against it and there was no doubt which one won on the taste scale.
Oh, you had me interested from the first post, I am definitely going to look into it. Thank you for the heads up.
Agree completely.
Also worth noting…PC brand packaged bacon is 500g while national brands come in 375g packages.
Meat retailers are finally getting called out for price gouging.
What is “price gouging”?
Price is how capitalism rations goods. I can tell you this… when the price rose, Wallyworld here went from selling out of bacon every week, to it being plentiful everyday. And then there were the extra strains and costs the government has been putting on the food system, which now seem to be abating. I think these two factors have as much to do with it as anything else.
Agreed. The bonuses grocery store execs have received over the last three years seem totally reasonable!
Absolutely. After all, no one could eat out and in light of how food was consumed prior to the pandemic response, the stores were swamped and there were hoarding behaviours (the very thing so-called price gouging prevents). I don’t think the industry fully anticipated this and companies blew past their targets, triggering bonuses. Good for them for keeping us fed during challenging times.
Keep in mind too that bonuses are often in the form of stocks and the market has ponly recently ended a bull market run. Anyone paid in stocks, from Dec 20 to Dec 21 (in general) got paid at the highest the S&P has ever been.
The grocery industry as a whole makes 3 percent profits. We should be grateful they can survive with such thin margins. And we should expect that sustained price inflation will always have to be passed on under such a regime.
The higher input costs are mostly incurred by the supplier (in the case of meat, the rancher) who are not making record profits. The retailers are definitely making record profits while claiming higher costs of doing business. Their number one cost is staffing, which has not really increased. Most of their cost increase is from shipping.
Three percent is what you are considering to be record profits. They are not record, although they are an improvement on the immediate years prior. They are still low however. Regardless, I dare you to start any enterprise based on those margins. Common sense should show how thin those margins are.
Those profits also came at a time of record sales. That is all unadjusted for inflation. You might want to note that price inflation presently is higher than the industry’s profit margins.
The greatest percentage increase in revs for three major grocers over the past 12 months came from Pharmacy Sales, by the way.
The largest cost is the cost of goods, not labour. And any cost increases up the supply chain that can be passed on will be passed onto the wholesaler, the retailer and finally the consumer.
2019 (pre-pandemic) profit margins:
Empire – 1.17%
Loblaw – 1.86%
Metro – 3.28%
Latest quarter profit margins:
Empire – 2.75%
Loblaw – 3.56%
Metro – 4.63%
That’s a lot of cosmetics sales.
Not Drug Retail, Pharmacy sales.
Now go back ten years and take a look at profits.
There really is mixed information on the inter webs regarding food prices and inflation. Some economists say price gouging doesn’t exist. Others, such as food suppliers claim that the retailers are gouging consumers. There are some retailers in the US that have been fined for price gouging. In Canada, there is very little competition in the food industry, so less opportunity for the free market to keep costs down. Weston admitted to price fixing bread in Canada for over a decade. When food prices rise faster than inflation, it should be investigated.
I am never going to complain about an industry that can operate and sustain itself on such thin profits.
And I am not a believer in price gouging. Price is what rations goods and services. The mistake is to not allow price gouging to occur, like those governments who choose to fine retailers for it. Then people walk-in and buy up the whole supply, because the price does not reflect the fear (and thus the mismatch between supply and demand) present and profiteer by selling it privately. High prices keep shit on the shelves for people who need it and are thus willing to pay the higher price. They also send a signal, an incentive, to producers and entrepreneurs to make more. These two features of price are why price-fixing always results in sustained shortages and ever increasing intervention in the markets.
The poorer take the blow there till the economy can adjust, no doubt. That’s why a government that wishes to risk inflationary policies (and they all do want some inflation) is essentially conducting constant war on their poorest citizens, especially those on fixed income like widows and orphans and retirees and those disabled who are unable to provide for themselves. Whether that inflation’s at two percent or ten percent.
Anyways this increase in the industry’s thin profits came after a large punch of monetary stimulus. That’s probably not a coincidence. Usually the financial world is the beneficiary of such stimulus and we see inflation in financial assets like stocks and bonds. This time stimulus was also put directly in the hands of consumers, but who had a limited choice of things they could spend the money on. Some bet on crypto, some on stocks, some on toilet paper, some on tubing the latest video games…
Can you repeat that….my eyes jumped straight ahead to “2nd Breakfasts”
Wholesale foods is generally best way to go. Uncut bacon generally between 1.5-2 kg slabs sold for 1/2 to 2/3 of the price of good thick sliced 1 kg packs. But yeah, I noticed a glut hit market as well and grabbed a ton of thick sliced 1 kilo packages last week for 5.99 per. Filled a good chunk of freezer up.
I no longer shop going out with a specific meat on list. I just alternate chains check meat section for specials grab any ridiculous deals. So I have all sorts of frozen meat options and am buying stuff for existing stock keeping an eye out for adding bargains. Anything in too bulk of packaging I reduce into smaller portions vac seal and freeze those.
It’s cut a huge amount of money off grocery bills.
A really good one I keep coming across is packs of 1/4 chickens for like less than 2 dollars a piece. It’s insane how often it’s cheaper than packages of just drumsticks even.
Yup. That is how we shop as well. You just have to have a separate freezer for the dim sum supplies. 😉
As far as Holloway not at development camp, per Nugent-Bowman:
I’m told the Oilers wanted to give Holloway a break after a long season. Remember, he played in the Oilers’ last game barely a month ago.
Did he play in that game? I think he “made an appearance”.
Bob having some fun. 😉
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
1h
First-Round Picks 2019-2022:
Toronto:
2019-traded for Muzzin
2020-Rodion Amirov
2021-traded for rental N. Foligno
2022-traded to dump Mrazek
Edmonton:
2019-Philip Broberg
2020-Dylan Holloway
2021-Xavier Bourgault (pictured)
2022-Reid Schaefer
Draw your own conclusion.
#fancystats
Wow that is a striking comparison. I think Bob could have included Minten in 2022 to be fair, Schaefer and him are only 6 picks apart.
Holland obviously values first round picks and isn’t as shy about moving any other pick. I don’t mind that strategy, as long as your scouts are hitting (at this point it appears all three of the prior first rounders will at least play in the NHL)
Also worth including playoff series wins over the same period.
Oilers series wins: 2
Leafs series wins: 0
Also worth noting…the Oilers were not playing the cup champion in the 1st round.
The Leafs didn’t play the cup champion this year, the Oilers did.
But not in the 1st round.
#wasteof12days.
Also worth noting, the Canucks didn’t make the playoffs!
No they drew them in the Western Conference Finals.
Remember when you stated you would not trade Bouchard straight up for Brogan Rafferty? Pepperidge farm remembers.
This comment is so pathetic.
Freakin Awesome!
Timing. It’s a thing. Toronto’s timing was unlucky in relation to the Bruins and the Bolts.
Will the Oilers timing fair better against the Avalanche?
Responding to a question why Holloway isn’t at development camp.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
2m
I’m told the Oilers wanted to give Holloway a break after a long season. Remember, he played in the Oilers’ last game barely a month ago.
Is this truly all randomness or secondary to quality of linemates? There have been some lean years for both McDavid and Draisaitl with respect to who they line up with.
Let’s look at the top scoring wingers on the roster in 18-19, where both CMD and Drai were bad goal share wise apart:
RNH 69 points in 82 games
Chiasson 38 points in 73 games
Kassian 26 points in 79 games
Lucic 20 points in 79 games.
RNH can only play with one of them at a time if they are apart. And even then, the other winger is likely to be terrible. If you take out both 18-19, both players are good to excellent, which makes sense.
Even without taking things like this into context, there are trends that emerge:
McDrai for 3/4 years are 55+% GF, which is upper echelon.
Drai has been 54% + GF for three straight seasons without 97, also upper echelon.
My takeaway from this data is both guys have shown they can drive a line, it’s just that the vehicle can’t be a Ford Pinto that has caught fire.
Darren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
Jack Campbell and Kyle Dubas met yesterday. I’m told it was was a friendly, but unproductive meeting. Nothing has changed.
12:42 PM · Jul 10, 2022
Campbell went into the meeting commando. Clearly not on Team Underpants.
I’m not going to ask how you know this. 😉
YES!!!!!!!
It’s like when your current boss offers you a raise after you’ve already found another job.
#TooLittleTooLate
What the actual fuck is Chicago thinking?!?
Reports are they will not qualify Kubalik. Wow.
why not qualify these players and trade them? There must be some market for Kubalik and Strome?
Where are the rumours coming from?
Mark Lazerus on twitter. He is with the Athletic, so pretty credible rumour imo.
Merci.
Note: I have no idea what their QO must be.
Because one owes them the QO if they accept it. Or the arbitration award. One can just use the cap apace on other players.
Chicago can probably get players and draft picks from teams looking to dump players to get under the cap.
Signing (which is what QO’ing) players you don’t want long term and risking the arbitration award just slows down the rebuild.
Weaponized cap space is a more valuable asset than QO’ing players that you don’t want.
Carolina has the cap space available to go out and sign Klingberg because they let Bear and DeAngelo go look for deals for themselves.
Thanks. This makes sense. The market for cap space trades is stronger than the market for overpriced RFAs.
And they have a prime opportunity to keep accumulating draft picks by taking on other teams bad contracts.
The more Conner Bedard lotto ticket the better.
Doesn’t no QO mean there is no market for the players at the QO price point?
Even if the player isn’t in your long term plans and you want the cap for something else, obviously it would be preferable to trade the player, gain an asset, and still open the cap space.
If that does happen, it means no team is willing to give you anything at all for the player.
They’re stripping it down to the studs.
Kubalik has a QO of $4 million.
I’d say it is more like they are using dynamite to explode the whole thing.
So where does Kane go to because we know he isn’t staying.
He has no one left to friggin pass to.
Will likely depend on where some other UFA wingers land.
He has a full NMC so can pick his spot or perhaps he’d go home to Buffalo.
Or maybe a good team that has a chance of winning.
Don’t think Colorado could fit him under the cap.
I think Kubalik at 4M has positive value. Maybe I am wrong.
Edit: quickly scrolled his numbers. I was wrong. His past two seasons are very meh.
Wood- not hockey studs!
They’re thinking that Bedard kid looks like a young Patty Kane
I do not think they understand how the draft lottery works. 25% chance is not that great.
How is a stone cold killer not being qualified?!
Classic.
Friedman advising Murray to TO is heating up.
I wouldn’t touch him even with 50% retained.
Please!! Would love to see TML end up with Murray. Not sure why they would do it, but it would result in one less competitor bidding for better quality goaltenders.
It’s just one snapshot, but he’s sitting right there behind Georgiev in SV% over the past couple of seasons (.901 to .899).
He’s still young (28), $3.125M with half retained, which is in range with what Georgiev will get ($2.65M QO). Murray had the better numbers last season (.906 vs .898) and obviously has played at a much higher level than Georgiev has in the past.
Probably costs less than the 3rd, 3rd, 5th Sakic paid too. Some real interesting bets going on with goalies this year.
More indication that Campbell is not re-signing in Toronto.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
10m
Word is that OTT/TOR have intensified discussions around Matt Murray. We will see how things play out, but those conversations continue.
Coach Sheldon Keefe said that Dubas would do his due diligence, probably circle back around to Campbell one last time and then move on to the other options.
Seems like he’s onto the other options.
The way I see it is thusly : If JP is traded and plays top 6 minutes he won’t score like he did here because he won’t be playing with 97 or 29. He won’t discover intensity or net drive overnight and hands won’t materialize over one summer. Despite solid D, this won’t work on a “normal” NHL top 6. He will have 7 goals at the All Star Break. He will be driven down the lineup to where he can contribute a 200 foot game but he doesn’t want that because he can have that here but doesn’t want it here either.
Meanwhile the Oilers key to separation from the pack next year is to have a blitzkreig top 6. Not just one that outscores but one that scares the shit out of people. There can be no offensive question marks in that mix, no tooling around hoping for JP to keep his stick on the ice, to learn how to fire the puck, and not loop around like it’s international ice.
If JP doesn’t want a 3L role, on a championship team, then he should sit until Holland finds value for him. Until then this team is very deep upfront and has money to fix existing holes. All in, now. That includes JP. He should sign a one year show me bridge where everyone knows his role is to remodel his game (I’ve even said he should give D a spin!) and then he can look elsewhere to sign a longer deal with a ring on his finger and work his way up that lineup if he insists on being Patrick Laine.
Personally, I think JP on defense is a spectacular idea!
They should go get that Smith guy. He looks pretty good.
I think it is more likely “Smith shows up for the first game after the All-star break”.
Because this is possible, I’m leery of a big name signing. Not as leery as DEFMN but pretty leery.
I prefer skeptical. 😉
Thank you, David Hume 😉
(who was my fave in college btw)
It all likely depends on Skinner and how he plays. Having veteran Smith in your back pocket isn’t the worst thing. He might help
If you have all three in camp, let the best goalie win. Goalies like Skinner go through waivers every year.
Smith doesn’t want to play the whole season. He will get himself healthy, stay in shape, and be potentially ready to come of LTIR in January for a short season and playoff run, if the Oilers need him.
If this turns out to be the case, I like it. Keep trying to upgrade, to improve.
Honestly Bear had the same issues in Carolina that he did here, inconsistent play, slow boots.
Ethan Bear is a great draft and develop story for the oilers but unfortunately his skill set is suited to 2nd pairing, but he doesn’t have the speed or size to really excel there.
I still think a great buy low candidate for another team. He likely is going to have the best years of his career over the next two seasons.
Development camp news:
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-37-players-to-attend-oilers-development-camp/c-334908214
Oilers camp roster
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-37-players-to-attend-oilers-development-camp/c-334908214
That’s gonna take one large camping box.
Kubalik will also go unqualified; per Lazerus
Doesn’t Chicago understand he’s a stone cold killer.
I missed this comment. I guess they aren’t basing their decisions off of one mid-summer “playoff” series like some “knowledgeable” fans are.
Watching the games, I come away seeing JP as a contributor to the team success, I also see his hips ruining everything.
This could be very true . Not positive his surgery completely solved his ailment . It may very well be on going . Something he was born with that wont improve as he ages .
The play this year should be Reimer or Holtby for 1 yr. Not put all the eggs in the Soupy or Klemperer baskets.
I would have preferred some others for 1 yr G spot satisfaction but the bums are quickly being outnumbered by the chairs.
Holtby is retiring by the sounds of it.
Allen should be the target. The younger “Reimer”.
Reimer, Allen, Talbot……
This is exactly my list.
Is J. Toews, at 50% retained ($5.25 million), worth acquiring? How does Chicago value him after a down season last year? They’re new GM may be vulnerable.
I’m curious if he would be a top 6 or top 9 forward with the Oilers for 1 season? If the acquisition cost was lower than Keith’s (with 50% retained), maybe he’s a nice target. Historically, he has been a great playoff performer.
Wrong guy. Patrick Kane at 50% retained should be the target.
JP has some rough spots still but he is playing close to how he was projected. He was never projected to be Jari Kurri 2.0. He is absolutely a solid and affordable top9 player that can drive a 3rd line. Complements skill vey well with his very good two way play and forecheck causing turn overs. Some decent chemistry with some disappointments. Certainly should be on the budget around $3M
— It would be quite a shock if the Oiler don’t sign him for term. Having not had to eat my hat Re:Smith winning 16 games I’ll eat my hat if Jack isnt the goalie Holland gets: it’s easy, expensive and just feels right and guide book informs Holland that he’s a legit goalie from a legit team
— Contrast this to Av who as far as I can recall has to be the only Cup team that trades for a replacement goalie seemingly just before they even clean up the streets after the parade. Which was a data driven decision. Had Smith won the cup with equal ineptitude he would have been reupped as a warrior and leader.
My Gut tells me Jesse will be traded with another player .. maybe Barrie. I don’t think anything happens with this deal or Jesse until after free agency at the earliest. Me thinks it will happen in September sometime after everyone see what they have going into the season and are not satisfied or maybe an injury or two occurs with other teams during training camp.
My gut tells me JP is headed back to Finland .
Sure, he can take his ball and go back home to Finland … for less money. And the Oilers will still own his rights. They can then take the 3 million or so earmarked for Jesse and go shopping for his replacement. After which Jesse will have even less leverage.
I’d be shocked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXHkFZ-nG4Y
I think it was Nugent-Bowman who provided that his intel says they won’t trade him until after the top 6 has been solidified – the team sees top 6 upside in the player still.
Agreed. The team sees the middle six potential in him.
Gazzola and Nielsen sound convinced this morning that Campbell will be an Oiler.
Yup. Posted this yesterday after listening to their podcast. And now Friedman says Toronto is in talks with Ottawa for Murray which makes me think they know he is leaving. Too much smoke to ignore.
duplicate
Usually there’s a one week window GM’s can talk to players before free agency. Is that the case this year? Just wondering if Holland can get his ducks in a row before Wednesday
The NHL removed the interview period in 2020, but that may have been because the calendar was compressed due to Covid.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/07/new-cba-eliminates-free-agent-interview-period.html
It appears it is back again, this years interview window opened yesterday
The market to sign free agents in 2022 begins on July 13 at noon ET.
Players that are unrestricted free agents (UFAs) can begin meeting and talking with teams on the day after the NHL Entry Draft, which will run from July 7-8.
https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-free-agency-start-date/ibcjgzqqoobjpu4xoyrtrxax#:~:text=The%20market%20to%20sign%20free,run%20from%20July%207%2D8.
I believe the window opened the day after the draft. So Saturday.
Which is good, because Ken Holland has been in communication with Jack Campbell for two weeks now.
#BackChannel
#GentleOnMyMind
Campbell: Soup, Songs, and Saves
With Dach and DiBrincat getting traded, Strome not being qualified, the full tear down in Chicago is on.
It’s not just Kane that will be available though he’s the most enticing piece.
I would expect quite a few transactions over the summer from them.
#TankHardForBedard
As much as I like Kane, I think the best move is to not sign him.
Most of what plagues Jesse Puljujarvi is between his ears . It’s been that way from day one with the Oilers . He seems to think he should be scoring goals at the NHL level as he did when he played as a kid in Finland and he really is still just a kid . The Oilers want him to reinvent himself in realistic terms . But he wants nothing to do with it . That’s the stumbling block right there . He would be stellar on a third line with MacLeod & Foegele . But his head is buried in the sand . That’s why he’s on the trade block .
Bednar coached Nichushkin up. Maybe if the Oilers spent more time coaching Puljujarvi instead of badmouthing him to and through the media.
I agree 100%
I just listened to the bonus 32 Thoughts Podcast. Elliotte starts by saying Jeff Marek (the insider) missed day two of the draft and was on a family vacation. I find that consistent with his inside knowledge.
Seeing Georgexs (Woodguy, Lowetide and others) post reminds me of just how interesting/informative/entertaining the analytics focused discussions can be.
I had a thought. Maybe this site could host something like a “Math Monday” where the true/pure analytics guys could post free of distractions like Randle.
Not to say the Randle types couldn’t post, but only if in “math/analytics” format/language
Would have the bonus side affect of making me look forward to Monday’s
#ContinousImprovement
(And yes, I know there’s a place called twitter; But twitter has a way of turning tweeters into twats.)
I can’t believe twats got through the filter; IN YOUR FACE filter!
(The filter was obviously designed after 1990)
I enjoyed your subtle rebuttals of the reasoning up top this morning. I think you would be welcome in such a discussion.
Thanks Bro.
I include you, JP and others in the list of qualified analytics guys.
And I’m serious that I would be happy to stay out of the way for that one day.