I’ve been thinking about Oilers fans lately, wondering if people are beginning to trust the organization and team. I have a great deal of respect for this fan base, who have weathered insolence from owners and bungling management over many years. Every day, I read text messages to TSN1260, tweets and comments on my articles that feel out of time with the results of the team.
I think many fans are late for the sky. Jackson Browne wrote this song about being a “moment when you realize that something has changed, it’s over, and you’re late for wherever you’re going to be next.”
Even the smart ones sometimes miss the end of one chapter and the start of the next. Late for the sky. If you’re that person, I hope you can enjoy what may come. You’ve earned it.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers have room for UFA contract or PTO. Is there a match?
- Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Predicting Kailer Yamamoto’s Oilers goal total in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
FOUNDATION PIECES
How many above average foundation players are on the current Oilers roster? Can we assume more will arrive this year? I define a foundation player as playing one of the following positions regularly: Top two lines, No. 3 center, top two pairngs, starting goalie.
- Jack Campbell. His overall save percentage (.914) is about mid-level (No. 13) among goalies we can consider starters (2,000 five-on-five minutes) in 2021-22. It’s much higher than Edmonton’s starter (Mikko Koskinen) who finished with a .903 save percentage (No.28). Mike Smith didn’t play enough to be considered a regular. In fact, he played 32 percent of Edmonton’s total minutes in 2021-22.
- Darnell Nurse played 36 percent of Edmonton’s total even strength minutes and the team’s goal share while he was on the ice (54 percent) was exceptional. Considering the quality of opponent faced, Nurse’s season was top drawer. He was also 50 percent away from McDavid.
- Cody Ceci played 526 tough even-strength minutes with Nurse, and the duo contributed to a handsome outscoring percentage (59.6 percent). Ceci was a little under 50 percent without Nurse, but he played in some genuinely bad luck during that time.
- Evan Bouchard had an even strength goal share of 52 percent. His even-strength points-per-60 (1.55) ranked him No. 15 among all NHL defensemen who played 600+ minutes. He has room to get better.
- Tyson Barrie had a 52 percent goal share without McDavid at even strength. He also delivered 6.04 points-per-60 on the power play, ranking No. 12 among NHL defensemen who played 100+ minutes.
- Brett Kulak played just 18 games, but at even strength owned a 60 percent goal share and scored 1.73 points-per-60. We shouldn’t expect those numbers over an entire season but Kulak’s speed was a real boost to the Oilers.
- Connor McDavid scored 3.23 points-per-60 at even strength, and 8.86 points-per-60 on the power play. He’s been hacking the mainframe since his arrival in the NHL.
- Leon Draisaitl scored 50 again, in the last four season his per 82 games totals are: 51-65-116. At even strength last season, Draisaitl with McDavid (59.3), McDavid without Draisaitl (59.2) and Draisaitl without McDavid (55.8), all at even strength, were well clear of 50 percent goal share. He shall be Leon, and he shall be a good man.
- Evander Kane scored 1.79 goals-per-60 at even strength when playing on Connor McDavid’s wing.
- Zach Hyman delivered 2.69 points-per-60 with Leon Draisaitl, 2.24 with Connor McDavid and 1.8 with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. All numbers even strength.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the ideal utility forward and for that reason is often underrated. Here’s a stat for you. In the most recent three seasons, Nuge (on the PK) has allowed 5.32 goals-against per 60. That’s No. 13 among NHL forwards (over 200 minutes) in that span. Nuge’s PP offense is also a major positive, lest we forget how confused it looked for a time last season when he was unavailable.
I wrote about free agents in my piece at The Athletic this morning, but also about the heart of the order. If you’ve been doomsday scrolling through the negative about the Oilers lately, I encourage you to take a moment, step outside, feel the earth move, and then read about these 11 fellows. It’s quite the story.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show today, 10-2 on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will join us and we’ll chat World Juniors, Sam Gagner and why Russians never seem to work out here. Travis Yost is on the guest list, waiting to confirm, and we’ll have NFL and CFL previews. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I’m getting cognitive dissonance. The Oilers need to get better at defending/controlling the neutral and D blue line, and build an affordable bottom 6 that doesn’t get outscored. Basically better players, play the system better, and lower GA and D zone time
And Barrie and Gagner are going to do that?
Barrie decided to play like an NHL D in the playoffs and I appreciated that. He’s the same height and heavier than Makar, who as a kid without his man strength still plays a heavier game
So Barrie actually engaged a bit physically, but let’s not get too carried away, he’s still a soft player and still gets crushed in critical defensive metrics without Kulak carrying him. On the third pair let’s not forget
We have watched Gagner a lot as an Oiler. If he’s the answer to tighten up the bottom 6, like what? He’s terribly inconsistent defensively (ie the problem that needs fixing) amd yes has more skill than who’s been there, but also a step slower than his not fast youthful self, and yet another soft player
I can’t wrap my head around these things and the team being better. I suppose if the coaches would actually play the 4th line the decrease in TOI for the other lines is a help
Pretty spot on IMO…
Sorry but this is made up in your mind.
That 5-man unit played 1:28 together during the regular season (and got scored on) and 1:40 in the playoffs (no goals).
The mind does that. But the sentiment I think is true. Some combos involving those players, maybe another guy or two…
It so important who scores the first Goal in a Oiler game. Oilers score first teams open up then the boys pounce on that. The opposition scores first like the Wild for example then out comes the trap. How do you find out who lets in the 1st Goal of the game day10 minutes in or under. I’ll put Money we are way below average since the last year of first shot Talbot.
I do agree with the premise around scoring first – the Oilers still seem to run on momentum quite a bit and can take advantage of teams losing structure. I think the Wild example is dated though – this isn’t the Lemaire WIld, they were fifth in the league in goals scored this past year (and gave up one more goal than the Oilers did…..)
Its true for every team in the NHL. I think the team that scores first wins approximately 70% of the games. Scoring first is paramount.
I’ve been thinking about Oilers fans lately, wondering if people are beginning to trust the organization and team.
========================
Your post today reminded me of something my mother-in-law was always saying to my father-in-law as he rehashed changes that he couldn’t quite accept.
“Always a war behind” became kind of an inside joke in our family and your post today made me smile thinking about those conversations so thank you.
It seems the Oilers have a modern day Dave Andreychuk in young Joel Maatta.
Yeah and Anton Lander is captain of the Oilers.
Where’s the love for Tim Kerr who went undrafted and scored a shitload of P.P Goals from a 6 foot radius around the net.
Those goals are the Andreychuk special – 6 feet was from range for slow moving Dave.
2.35 in the playoffs (GOAL per 60) – lol.
Kane was outstanding in the playoffs.
What an opportunity to star with McDavid. And Edmonton is the best place anywhere to play hockey in the winter without distraction.
Kane could turn out to be a modern day (insert 1st class power forward of your choice) here.
Kane just turned 31 yet he looks like he hasn’t peaked yet. I believe Kane is grateful to Holland for this new lease on life and with Holland place setting him with 2 of the best players in the world. Hyman, Nuge and Kane will all age well in my opinion
John Tonelli
I prefer Butch Goring. It’s unfortunate by the time he hit the Island he was in the twilight yrs of his career. He played for some god-awful teams in the Kings
Goring was 5 foot 10 inches weighed 165 pounds soaking wet. Butch had 18 years of NHL action playing in 1107 games receiving a grand total of 102 PM in his career.
If you had watched the games you would have seen how valuable he was to the Islander’s success. He was an instrumental asset in the Islander run of Cups.
Your right about Goring pushing the Islanders over top. Butch was super underrated I remember it was late in a playoff series and Goring was out there killing off a 5 minute major. The opposition couldn’t enter the zone for what seemed like the whole 5 minutes because Goring was dogging the puck carrier so effectively. That was the best Penalty kill by a player I had and since seen.
John Tonelli and Clark Gilles gave the Islanders 2 excellent power forwards. In their prime, they could do it all. Not saying that Kane and Hyman are the same thing, but I’ll take what they give day long.
Have no fear Holloway is here.
I know much of those were sheltered 3rd pairing minutes but that W/O McDavid goal share is real and substantial.
I think the criticism of his “defensive game” is over-stated. No, he’s not a great defensive player – not a great cycle breaker of net-front clearer but, in the defensive zone structure game, he isn’t bad and he isn’t a shrinking violet.
To my eye, over the years, where he gets in trouble is defensive blueline and neutral zone decision making – stepping up at poor times or with poor timing and jail breaks against resulting.
This was MUCH less of an issue after the coaching change – likely a combo of the player himself making better decisions (likely with the help of Manson) but also the general forward support that was prioritized after the change and made a material difference.
People rag on Barrie who provides counterpoint to Bouchard’s emerging genius.
Bouchard is already close to a first pairing star defenceman after his rookie season.
Montreal might trade that 1st overall pick they just drafted for a French Canadian star defenceman as promising as Bouchard.
I have no concern about his defensive game not be at least above average, if not very good, in time. He is too smart of a hockey player not to continue to learn and improve in this area (when combined with his physical attributes and athleticism, from accounts).
If there was one they just might.
LT – on the show today you mentioned the cap helps the Oilers present-day.
They are no longer a low revenue team.
They have a very wealthy owner.
They have a new building to maximize revenue.
They are worth a lot.
Luxury tax would be a much more favourable system for this team.
I believe the cap helps the Oilers *in perpetuity* or at least for the next several decades. At least beyond the point at which Las Vegas is a desert ruin. 40 years from now is less than half the Oilers’ history, and political economy – and environment – will be unrecognizable. The stability provided by the cap is a more sustainable model.
Sure Nurses GF% numbers without Mcdavid look good.
that’s because most of them were then spent with Draisatl
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8477498
but the GF% together and then without Nurse doesn’t flatter Nurse much
McDavid has always floated all boats but Drai has often not been ahead in the goal share apart from McDavid – not saying Drai isn’t as amazing as we know he is, just that, one cannot presume goal share with Drai in the same way as McDavid, to me.
Nurse is the most sought after type of player.
He skates like the wind is tougher than 99% of the rest of the NHL and can be counted on defensively – while causing many many forays into the opposition end by his lonesome.
No idea when it happened but he ended up with a really awkward injury to end the best Oilers season since Pisani had that great playoff run in 2006.
There was an incident in the 3rd or 4th last game of the season where Nurse was injured – it didn’t look good at the time and the result met the eye test, that’s for sure.
Nurse at five-on-five:
With McDavid but without Leon or Nuge: 17-13, 57 percent
With Draisaitl but without McDavid or Nuge: 13-15, 46 percent
With Nuge but without McDavid or Draisaitl: 9-5, 64 percent
Without the big three centers: 8-16, 33 percent
I’m not sure how much people want to blame Nurse for his time with Devin Shore, etc, but it’s absolutely an issue. My own opinion is it’s the Shore people.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-10-12&td=2022-05-01&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477934&p3=8477498&p4=8476454&p5=0
Love the article LT!
I surmise that the Keith Trade was the latest fan fracture. It was fun to listen to the rehashing of that trade over and over and over again despite the on ice results and then the man’s subsequent retirement.
Also agree with OP that for some there is a right way and a wrong way to build a team. Once that gets into your head its tough to shake.
The real thing is that we aren’t quite at “peak” Oilers yet. That probably happens in two-ish seasons and that’s when you’ll see a run at 132 regular season points. That’s when you get a sweep of all the NHL awards.
So much focus on Kane, Hyman, McD and Leon we aren’t stretching our imaginations far enough to see what “could” happen when Yamo, JP, Bouch, Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault and pick a winger looking to win, all round into form.
Imagine having the Penguins Star power circa 2008, but a roster chalk full of pure skill like Chicago had in 2009/10, but with ZERO cap problems in keeping everyone toegther for another 12 years.That’s what’s coming down the pipeline folks.
When McDavid hangs up the blades in copper and blue the Oilers will be 2nd or 3rd in all time franchise Stanley’s.
All Time Stanleys:
Montreal – 23
Toronto – 13
Detroit – 11
Chicago – 6
Boston – 6
Pittsburgh – 5
Edmonton – 5
If you’re right (and I hope you are) there could be a lot of damaged livers in Oil Country.
Love the enthusiasm but op is pretty optimistic. I think not getting a cup with this group is a disappointment, but more than one is awesome. To separate from Pittsburgh and be the heavyweight champs of the post expansion era is monumental. I could kill my liver on that alone.
I always say that having a view on history will keep 97 and 29 here for their careers. They seem a cut above in that regard as compared with, say Mathews. Especially Leon seems to have a maturity about his place in the game, and I hope they understand their greatness in these terms. I know I do!
And we know there’s a silent arms race on getting the cup back above the border. It’s been three decades. You do that, and do it as the heir to to Gretzky, on his team, in this town, Jesus Christ. Do they want to be generational players or legit cultural icons for another century?
None of the players other than McDavid think like that.
McDavid probably reads Lowetide.
You know they have to win at least one before winning any more.
I agree the team is not at its peak yet. Too many young guys in key positions where potential is strong but experience is still in process.
The key for me is a healthy Campbell as well as Skinner taking the next step and forming a 1-2 punch like we haven’t seen since Moog-Fuhr days. This is Campbell time to shine I know OP likes to continuously bring up that Smith had a better save percentage by a point yet Campbell played almost twice as many games with a good chunk of them with bad Ribs. For those of us that have had this injury know that the pain is unbearable. Anyhow I think Campbell and Skinner knock it out of the park this year.
Playing NHL average without so many 1st shot and its 0-1 Oilers will be good enough lol
I didn’t watch enough Leafs games to have a strong opinion on Campbell. My objections to signing him were related to cap implications and I really like Skinner. Of all the positions in hockey I think goalie is the most difficult to rank using stats. I prefer the eye test for that position.
The analytics on goaltenders have taken huge steps forward in the past few seasons.
Unfortunately much of the data is not available to the public.
we do get peeks behind the curtain occasionally when people like Mike McKenna submit to interviews.
A few months ago, he as talking about a study that found the ideal height for a goaltender was 6’3” which runs counter to the conventional narrative that bigger is better.
His explanation of how that impacted performance was fascinating.
Is there any evidence the analytics and/or their predictive ability have improved?
We don’t know what we don’t know but several teams like Florida, Vancouver, Carolina and lately, Calgary have been investing heavily in goaltender development.
Exactly. That was my point. There is really no basis for your statement that goalie analytics have taken huge steps forward.
Analytically inclined teams should (if huge steps have been taken) be showing an ability to parse the good from the bad, relative to the rest of the league. It’s not at all clear that’s the case.
It is not at all clear that it isn’t.
There must be a very good reason that numerous teams are building goaltender development departments often built around such luminaries as Mitch Korn, Francois Allaire and Ian Clark.
And this guy:
https://www.nhl.com/lightning/team/hockey-staff/frantz-jean
Coaching is not analytics though.
Uh-huh. And most of those steps are because they have started to use video rather than just crunching numbers.
Video analysis and “saw him good” have been around since Roger Neilson and Howie Meeker.
Data will tell us, among other things, how many goals should have been stopped that weren’t among many other things over large sample sizes.
As I mentioned earlier, the sample size on Skinner is too small to draw any conclusions but the data we can see so far indicates he’s slightly above replace level.
Given how analytically driven Colorado is, I am looking forward to seeing how Georgiev fares this season.
They have an admirable record of exploiting market inefficiencies and I’m pretty sure Dawson Spriggings would have been all over this move.
Apparently I wasn’t clear enough. The data is coming from analyzing the video. There is absolutely no other way you could have a ‘should have been stopped’ category that means anything. Numbers alone are incapable of producing such a conclusion.
Now I don’t pretend that I do that. I just point out that the improvements don’t come from a purely statistical perspective. They are derived from video and fed through an algorithm in order to produce a conclusion that gains some credence through a large enough sample size that it produces a more accurate prediction than just watching the game.
You really shouldn’t try to explain to me how statistics work though HH because I can tell by reading your various explanations to me that I actually know more about the subject than you do.
Which is why I have a higher level of skepticism regarding their accuracy than you do.
They are useful – not gospel – and the number of teams touted as temples of analytics have a checkered record in the NHL for the simple reason that the approach has limitations. One of the limitations is that when the sample size is not large they are pretty much useless – which is the point I was making regarding applying them to Skinner.
Well, we’ve reached the same conclusion about Skinner coming from different directions and the available analytics back it up,
He’s slightly above replacement level until he proves otherwise.
Like every young goalie ever … the insights you bring are just soooo valuable.
I don’t understand how Skinner’s numbers were league average and then he was also just above replacement level based on the same numbers.
League average is not equatable to replacement level.
Smith’s save percentage is brought up, often in response to phrases like “leaky Smith” because its factual and relevant.
Its not stated to deride Campbell, a goalie who, over the last two seasons, is 9th in save percentage (Smith is 6th).
While, goaltending has been above average for the Oilers the last few years, Campbell should help stabilize the position and that is important and I’m excited for that.
Are you confusing “Leaky Smith” with “Leaky Mikko”?
Nope, the poster has been using the term “Leaky Smith” for months……
I define a foundation player as playing one of the following positions regularly
With this as the proverbial line in the sand for measuring players, I’d argue against all three of our RHD being eligible for this list. If 3/3 of a position makes the list, does that not imply that 66% of them might not actually qualify?
Or are you suggesting that each player, on another team, could play top-4 minutes regularly?
Also because I’m already on this topic, I’m not sure I consider all 11 of those you mentioned as “above average” foundation players. I count 25/97/29 and maybe 91 with the rest as “average but foundational” when compared across the NHL, but your mileage may vary.
Fun experiment and conversation starter!
The most common comparable for Broberg we hear about is “Nurse without the toughness” so simplifying, might that be Brett Kulak?
Both players are very similar in their physical tools…tall and rangy with really, really good skating.
Broberg’s processor has been questioned and I see a bit of that with Kulak (like Broberg, he takes some huge hits) although at 28 Kulak has fixed most of that and now appears to be this solid 4/5.
To start I like Brett Kulak.
But if Broberg’s comp is a guy who couldn’t land a regular spot in the starting lineup until he was 27, I would recommend getting mentally ready to have your socks blown off.
Talk about selling the kid short yeesh.
What does Zegras fetch in a trade today? Holland went sightseeing on the Broberg pick. Hopefully the kid can handle 3rd pairing minutes this year and doesn’t get hurt. Its a long season hopefully the kid doesn’t put himself in a position to get wallpapered like he did last year.
Zegras is potentially the most over hyped player in the NHL.
agree. on zegras being hyped. 61 points is a very very solid 1st yr.
But broberg has been progressing very nicely.
did you watch the hlinka gretzky tournament?
Broberg was 100% healthy and 100% dominant in all factors of the game. if you watch highlights on youtube its even more flattering.
Hope that is a current news report.
Broberg is a first class prospect. He’s good enough to show up at camp and star and then what does this poster say?
“Shit happens”. Forrest Gump
Kulak is slightly below average sized for a D. Nurse and Broberg are tall and ripped.
Broberg won’t be mean physical like Nurse, but Broberg is going to be able to use his size effectively. He is going to be able to handle big bodied oppoents. Hedman isn’t mean. Only a small minority of Swedish D come with the mean gene.
Swedes get this maniac label, but as a hot Irish girl one said to me she doubts if her ancestors had any worries choosing hot Swedish men over 5 foot tall brown haired mini Britons.
Swedes are generally fair minded. Mean is an aspect of life they rarely seem to use. That said before they became a neutral country they were the terror of Europe, like in the 1700s.
My comparable would be Jay Bouwmeester. If he is to have a successful career, it will be because his wheels allow him to be everywhere he needs to be. He has the tools, we need to see if he has the head at the NHL Level. Nurse and Broberg are cut from a different cloth than each other, that’s not an insult to either player.
Yes, I’ve mentioned the Jay B. comparison before.
Of course, there is a LONG ways to go to see if he can get anywhere near the level Jay B. did but, stylistically, and upper ceiling, there are similarities.
On draft day, it was well known that the cluster of skilled forwards (Boldy, Zegras, Caufield, etc.) would “arrive first” and would likely be substantial early (as high skilled forwards often are). It was well known that Broberg would need 2-4 years of post-draft development – high end “raw skills/attributes” but indeed raw.
He’s developing ahead of the “Klefbom schedule”. I don’t care if Zegras puts up 80 points this season and “out-performs Broberg” – if Broberg continues to develop on schedule, having Nurse/Brogerg as the top 4 LD for the next 8 years will be cup contending.
Good but far from great player who was too smart to want to go anywhere near that Oilers team lol
Not many “far from great players” play defence for Canada at the Olympics with NHL players involved.
I love his skating looks like a young Big Bird at times, that’s Larry Robinson for you young fellas. It’s all about the injuries he puts himself in some Vulnerable positions from my viewing.
This was something that was identified early and where the coaches worked with Broberg. There was marked development through the year in the AHL – still working on it at the NHL level – its coming.
I find that the Lowtide Comments section is a good measure of fan sentiment.
Unfortunately its inverse in that the better results the team delivers, the fewer number of comments. But a streak of poor games, or poor roster decisions and the blog comments go through the roof.
Comments are low right now due to August but in years past when there were so many crappy roster decisions, it seemed the comment section was busy right through August.
We’ve been resting on HOPE since 2010, and waiting for the page to turn since the summer of 2012. Schultz and Yakupov – we’ve got this!
I think Oiler fans finally feel they can collectively relax and know they’ll bear witness to highly competitive hockey when the season starts. The Oil are a f’ing wagon, boys and ladies!
Now we can enjoy the long summer days and cool grass under our feet. I for one feel less … apoplectic
Jack Campbell on the hot seat.
https://thehockeynews.com/news/nhl-hot-seat-radar-edmonton-oilers
Also on hot seat: every NHL starting goaltender from now until the end of time.
Some seats are hotter than others and that was the author’s point.
If Campbell falters, Plan B is fraught with risk.
Agreed but we both know that the unmentioned part of him being on the hot seat is the Toronto angle. Had he elected to choose free agency rather than re-sign with, say, Arizona or Washington it wouldn’t be a story THN would have chosen to write imo.
Allow me to be repetitive in this one instance and say it again. I think Skinner is a lot better than generally recognized around here. The backup plan is not a weakness.
If a goaltender fails in Arizona…did it really happen?
The sample size on Skinner is so small it’s hard to get a good read on him.
But here are some stats from his 13 game season.
Expected GA 32.85 Actual GA 32
Save% above expected .001
WAR 0.014
So based on a very small sample size he appears to be a league average goaltender.
https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm
The question then, if Campbell falters is league average goaltending enough to win?
It’s hard to get a read on Skinner if you rely just on data. If you watch him it gets easier. 😉
It is enough to win in the regular season if the forward group performs as expected. It was in Toronto as you know.
Is Campbell elite? I think you know I was not in favour of the signing but there are many different ways to win in hockey. Colorado has made an even more risky bet in goal this summer as has Toronto. They both think they can win by focusing on talent in other positions. That is what I was hoping the Oilers would do as well.
I think the tandem of Campbell and Skinner ranks them higher up in the league than if you just rank Campbell and that is important as more and more teams move to a 60/40 split in games played.
Well, I have watched him and while I thought he looked competent, he didn’t really stand out to me.
While I agree Colorado has made a risky bet, I think I would be much more comfortable with Francouz as a backup than Skinner since he has a much longer track record including 3 stellar seasons in the KHL.
No idea what Toronto is doing but at least their commitment to Murray is only 2 seasons and he could easily be bought out after this season if things go south.
There used to be a Scottish TV character named Charles Endell who waited to the end of the game to decide which team he was going to support.
Competent is good. You don’t get an all star in every spot in a capped league. The most important feature of a goalie is consistency imo.
If dmen know what the guy in net can save and what he can’t you can win a lot of games.
Compare the Oilers goaltending situation to what Vegas has in store this season and it’s laughable.
Yep…it remains to be seen if they are going to do anything about it before the season starts.
Vegas are going to end up like Buffalo unless Eichel of all players pans out big.
Said every other team (excepting Arizona and Chicago this season). C’mon, you’re better than this. You want a hot seat as a goalie? It gets no hotter than Toronto.
No one is saying Edmonton is easy, but Campbell should be mentally ready for the challenge.
A starting goaltender on a cup contending squad in Canada is in a pressure cooker situation.. Get out of town man! That’s crazy.
The Writer sounds like a Leafs fan. Ceci, Hyman,Barrie and now Campbell all of whom not worthy of Toronto. These players could do the ultimate troll job on Dubas by winning the Cup while the Leafs exit in the 1st round again.
Some of my best friends are Leafs fans. That is a subject that needs an open fire with alcohol, like that Voyagers bar in Old Montreal from the 1700’s and still running that features open fireplaces and all the logs you want to throw into the flames.
Personally I have lived in Toronto so the Leafs were my semi-adopted team who made Lowe+MacT’s handling of the Oilers look like Sam Pollock and Scotty Bowman by comparison.
I didn’t know anybody still read THN.
I likely wouldn’t have read it had it not been written by Adam Proteau who I think is a very talented analyst.
LT writes about Oilers fans being “late for the sky”. HH comes on here to gaslight us some more. Typical.
Well he didn’t show it in that troll on Campbell maybe Campbell jumped in a Cab that he thought was his. Are could it be he received preferential treatment at the grocery store while his no name ass was standing in line.
If Quick falters, can Peterson save the day? Unlikely. If Demko falters, can Martin save the day? Unlikely. If Markstrom falters again, can Vladar save the day? Unlikely. Same goes for most Pacific teams and most NHL teams.
But funny how you focus on the Oilers.
If Plan A falters in Edmonton, Plan B isn’t great…..
Ummmm, the Oilers’ Plan B is essentially the Knights Plan A right now.
“who I think”
Well, there lies the problem.
Snap!
Mikko Koskinen!
Come back!
Mike Smith! We’re prepared to wait until you feel better!
A bored journalist is looking for clicks on the you-thought-that-was- out of business years ago.
Mikko is happily playing 25 games with zero pressure while his kids go to a private school and he’s a cult hero in his Beautiful safe Swiss dairy product City of Lugano.
Why is there no pressure? Do Europeans not also care about hockey and their local teams?
I think your confusing the passion countrywide Europeans have for Sking or Football ( Soccer) or even Tennis. I could be wrong but I wonder where Hockey falls for popularity as a whole through Europe.
While winter sports are enjoyed throughout the country, football and ice hockey remain the most popular sports. Major sporting events in Switzerland include the Olympic Games, which were held two times in St.
Sport in Switzerland – Wikipedia
All the talk about how Nurse is pumped up by so many minutes with McDavid and, while there is truth to that, I think near 53% actual goals away from McDavid is a real and telling stat, right?
I define a foundation player as playing one of the following positions regularly: Top two lines, No. 3 center, top two pairngs, starting goalie.
Was it Roger Neilson that dubbed it the “core 9”?
That’s twelve players, so I hope not.
Once you convert 9 to American it’s almost 12 Canadian.
That’s fair, I didn’t consider the exchange rate. Or could inflation be a contributor?
I far prefer the 1972 USSR setup with wave after wave making the out of shape and ill prepared Canadians look like Germans on D Day.
Meanwhile a young Glen Sather was soaking it all in on how the Russians came at the Canadian D.
Maatta with the 2nd assist on the Finland opening goal. Started a VERY nice tic tac toe play that was unfortunately at the expense of Munzenberger, whose man shook him backdoor on the give and go to finish the play.
Munzenberger trips his close friend/roommate/Vermont teammate/fellow Oiler Maatta, and Finland’s pp makes no mistake.
Maatta is very steady, always winning battles and on the right side of the puck.
Munzenberger has flattened Hirvonen and Simontaival on successive shifts, both 2 of the more more talented and elusive Finnish forwards. He has definitely stepped up his physicality today and I’m here for it.
Munzenberger with some solid puck movement from the point and the 2nd assist on a nice pp goal to bring ze Germans to within a goal.
Maatta with a nice move to drag the puck to his forehand and put it away on the PP
3 goals this tourney, all on the PP!
Tweets, texts, posts, etc. “out of line with results” – it seems that some are not just happy with “winning” and “building a winner” but want/require that winner to be built in “their way”, in their mind, the “right way”.
My Way:
1- Have McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime.
2- Have Ken Holland manage the team, with Woody as head coach.
3- Have several players like Nurse, Kane, Hyman and RNH in top supporting roles.
4 – Bring in a stable pro NHL steady goalie, that is going to cut out much of last seasons nightmare starts. This might lead to a more successful regular season.
I think Holland is a league average GM.
I also find it amazing how many fans, especially on twitter, talk about Holland like he has made the team worse.
Could another GM have improved the team more/faster? Probably.
Has Holland turned this team into a contender for the duration of the Drai/McD contracts? Yes.
— If the baseline is turning team into contender for the next three years is average I guess so
— In the absence of Drai and McD he’s a very poor GM IMO.
Is he though? What moves specifically make him “very poor”?
What’s the alternative to turning the team into a contender???
I think Holland is a league average GM.
======================
I guess being inducted into the Hall of Fame isn’t all that special then. 😉
I know the exercise was looking for those players that are above average at the twelve key positions, though you listed five defenseman. However, as a semifinalist last year I think all of our key players are above league average (ie. even Puljujarvi and Yamamoto).
So, the more important question might be how many of our core twelve are above average for semifinalists. Let’s just list last year’s semifinalists by position and you can be the judge. This is from daily face off and the order is always Oilers, Avalanche, Lightning and Rangers.
Centre: McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, McKinnon, Compher, Newhook, Point, Cirelli, Paul, Zibanejad, Trochek, Chytil
Left wing: Kane, Hyman, Landeskog, Nichushkin, Stamkos, Killorn, Kreider, Panarin
Right wing: Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Rantanen, Lehkonen, Kucherov, Hagel, Lafreniere, Kakko
Left Defense: Nurse, Kulak, Toews, Girard, Hedman, Sergachev, Lindgren, Miller
Right Defense: Ceci, Bouchard, Makar, Manson, Foote, Cernak, Fox, Trouba
Goalie: Campbell, Georgiev, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin
This doesn’t help answer the question, but shows the competition. So which positions are we in the top 2?
I think we have the best centers in the league, but otherwise would only say that Kane, Puljujarvi and Nurse are above average in this elite group. Bouchard needs to start dominating both sides of the puck and Broberg can’t arrive soon enough.
LW – Kane is the 7th best of that group.
RW – JP is 5th at best
LD – Nurse is 5th
RD – Ceci 6th Bouchard 7th but room to grow
G – Campbell 3rd pending the play of Georgiev behind an elite D
I would be interested to see how you rank them. Aside from Panarin, Landeskog and Stamkos, Kane has the highest PPG in the NHL and has had good seasons recently. To be honest, I ranked Nurse and Puljujarvi 4th, so not far off your assessment. The D is the problem though.
I would be a bit wary of Kane.
His shooting percentage last season was 14.5%…well over his career average of 9.9%
Perhaps a function of playing with better players but perhaps not.
And, yes, the D is an issue.
His PPG the last two years was .9 and .875. Above average for his career, but suggestive of a player who has aged well. Both were 22 goal seasons, though he played more games in his last with San Jose.
HH giving advice to the Oilers is like Lord Haw Haw in WW2.
HH – you conveniently left out the C position … didn’t fit your narrative eh?
I don’t think you’ll find anyone, me included, who doesn’t give the Oilers the win at C.
The problems are elsewhere.
Centre: Edmonton/TB
LW: NYR/Edmonton
RW: Colorado/NYR
LD:TB/ – not sure, I am not a fan of Girard’s but Kulak is still a question imo.
RD:NYR/Colorado
G: NYR/TB
As a group, I would say Edmonton is the weakest of the group at LW because Stamkos and Landeskog are absolute stars. I think we compare better at RW, but our D does not really rank in this group.
Although this is unfortunate, I think we should all take a minute to think of the players who have played wing and D for the oilers over the past few years.
Compared to the best, only obvious advantage is at centre IMO. LW is arguable but the rest of the postions I’d put Oilers lower than most the rest.
I would actually rank LW worst among the group.
Landeskog-Nichushkin both exceptional two way players who can score
Stamkos 106PTS – Killorn 59PTS
Kreider 52G – Panarin 96PTS
Kane 45G pace – Hyman 54PTS but underwater 5V5
The problem with ranking guys by 1st, 2nd, etc. is that you end up with the same order whether the difference is very close or quite large.
In goal, for example, it would take a lot more expertise than I have to say whether Vasilevsky or Shesterkin was #1. It takes considerably less expertise to note the difference between those two and the other two choices.
I think it is also important to invoke the ‘small sample’ criterion when focusing on these four teams. The regular season gives a clearer picture of where teams are at as a general rule. Edmonton would be a bit of an exception due to the coaching change and the ability to re-sign their TD pickups but only Colorado matched their season play and playoff play. NYR 7th, TB 8th, Edmonton 11th were not in the ‘cream of the crop’ crowd.
It would be unreasonable to think these are the only teams Edmonton has to match up to and, yes, I know Revolved didn’t mean to imply that.
Fun exercise for a slow day in August though.
I agree that rankings can be misleading, but putting some names in place at least helped me to see where our greatest weaknesses are. I didn’t think our D was so far behind and would have expected our LW to compare better given they both arrived last year and blew the doors off. It’s would be fun to look at all the quarter finalist teams.
Although he may not be considered to be there quite yet , I would add Ryan MacLeod to that list to make it an even dozen . If he isn’t the third line center already , he should be . He does everything that the Nuge does , allowing them to slot the Nuge into the top six , where he belongs , as a winger .
He’s trending, but he’s not locked in yet and, with respect, he’s not at Nuge’s level as an overall player yet. He is elite at zone exits/transition/entires already and has PK is coming but, lets not forget, he hasn’t had to face Nuge’s overall level of competition, his PK hasn’t been predominantly against PP1 like Nuge and his offensive ability and instincts aren’t in the same tier (despite Nuge struggling to produce at evens in recent times).
I see both Nuge and McLeod playing plenty of 3C this season and, yes, in the future, that is likely McLeod’s job nightly and am excited for him to continue to progress.
Nowhere near RNH’s level because believe it or not RNH is worth every percentage point of his cap hit.
Precisely. That’s why they shouldn’t waste Nuge on the third line when he should play in the top six . MacLeod is more than adequate in the 3c slot and definitely deserves more responsibility so he can develop more confidence. He has the coaches trust which says something.
The PK time he earned was really something – over 2 min per game under Woody and, I believe, 2nd among forwards in the playoffs.
Woody did have McLeod (and Maksimov) on the PK from their first games as rookies in the AHL.
McLeod would have been on the Oilers top line around when Doug Weight era.
— really the only “surprise” was Keith’s retirement (which I long ago surmised was an outcome). That was a lot of fun to read comments then have it happen.
— with the resigning of Kane and a new goalie tandem the team on paper better than the one that started last season. Not to mention a coaching staff more aligned with modern hockey.
— it’s kind of optimal Holland GM outcome: predictable, guide book.
— I think a more innovative and current management crew though would have done more, but still have up to trade deadline to optimize.
— In the absence of injuries though this is as good as it gets for the next 3 years : so enjoy and with some good things happening a few Cup runs
— The X factors again this year are Kailer and Pool: now a little further down the batting order hopefully they can make a step up.
Don’t you know, no credit is warranted for these…?
2) No credit for Kane – he lucked in to him.
4) No credit for the modern coaching staff – the change and hire was forced on him.
5) No credit for innovative management team – all nepotism.
Did I do that right?
Chiarelli wasn’t he sold as “innovative?”
Asking for a friend.
Thanks LT, for helping us all wake up and appreciate what we have in front of us. Wow! That’s a really good 11/12. And improved over last season!
Do we need that last piece to win the cup, or will we manage to win it without? Perhaps a playoff run with a healthier foundation (esp. Drai and Nurse) can get it done.
If we need the 12th piece, I guess it’s probably a deadline acquisition. Who will it be?
Defenseman is my guess, possibly goalie.
Campbell or Skinner that you wonder about?
I’ll put in an associated musical diversion this them, but the genre may be somewhat out of bounds around here 😉
It’s not having what you want
It’s wanting what you’ve got
I’m gonna soak up the sun
I’m gonna tell everyone to lighten up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIYiGA_rIls
Speaking for myself, Sheryl Crow is always welcome on here.
I’m typically not a big fan of cover songs, but she does a wonderful rendition of Zeppelin’s “D’yer Mak’er”.
If only Mark Knopfler did a cover, he could do so under the pseudonym “D’yer Straits.”
For me as well. I met her after a private concert in NYC in the late 90’s.
Well let’s hear the juicy details? You can’t leave us hanging like that.
Ok. So I was at Goldman at the time and we had a conference in mid-town Manhattan.
After the dinner we put on a private concert, Ms. Crow had opened the night before for the Stones in Boston, we flew her and her band down for the concert. After the show, Jon Corzine, GS CEO turned to me and said we have to go meet her backstage so we jumped up and headed backstage. Jon opens the door and this huge security guy stands in front of him and asks where he thinks he is going, Jon says “to meet Ms. Crow!” The security guy says she has already left. Jon looks over his shoulder and she is sitting right there so he tells the guard that. The guard says he is mistaken, she has already left. Jon says “Do you know who I am? I am Jon Corzine, CEO of Goldman Sachs and the guy who paid for this concert tonight!” The guard repeats she has already left and pushes Jon back and closes the door.
Jon freaks out! Not mad as Jon never got mad, but definitely not happy. He gets on his Blackberry (that is how long ago this was) and starts typing. Finally the guard opens the door and we walk in and straight to Sheryl Crow. She was very nice, we spoke for about 10 minutes and then she had to leave to rejoin the Stones tour.
Did I mention she was very attractive!
Corzine was never CEO. He lost out to the guy who does God’s work, Lloyd Blankfein. Corzine went on to lead the bankruptcy of MF Global, where he used and lost rehypothecated client funds on European bond trades.
Being a banker and a good Democrat, he got of really lightly.
I worked there, you don’t know shit. Jon was Chairman and CEO. The guy he lost out to eventually was Paulson. Blankfein came later. By the way, both Corzine and Blankfein are really good people, Paulson not so much. I have a great Blankfein story for another day.
By the way, the whole trading with customer money was proven false and customers received 100% of their cash back.
I misremembered. My false memory was that Blankfein and Corzine were in competition to succeed Paulson, but Paulson and Corzine were co-CEO’s and Paulson eventually won the power struggle.
Customer money was used to backstop shortfalls at MFGlobal. Customers may have gotten all their money back years later after lawsuits and settlements and penalties.
Corzine was made Chairman and CEO in 1994. As they got closer to the IPO Paulson was named co-CEO in 1998 after some hiccups during the 1997-98 crises. Then just before the IPO Paulson pushed Jon out, it was quite sad the way that punk treated Corzine but all too familiar with anyone privy to the tension internally between banking and sales/trading. Jon Corzine is one of the nicest, caring, and empathetic people I have ever met.
In court it was proven that Corzine had nothing to do with any of the legal/regulatory issues at MF.
Neat story and yes sheryl is the total package.
This is a great cover! Looks like they have all partaken in a little D’yer Maker special before this recording!
My band is lucky enough to have a talented female lead vocalist and we cover some SC (If it makes you happy). Shared this cover with the group for consideration into the rotation!
Was very impressed with Miley Cyrus and her cover songs. Never listened to her original music but she really has an amazing rock voice. Here are a few of her covers.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=miley+cyrus+covers
There’s some real talented Rock female voices from “Halestorm”and “Pretty Reckless” to my favourite kickass band of “The Warning” 3 sisters from Mexico that started doing covers of OzzY to AC/DC at 10-13 years old. Now 10 years later they’ve just resently released their 3rd Album with some badass tunes.
More positives, in a battle of Oilers WJC prospect supremacy it is Maatta v. Munzenberger today @ 1:30 St. John’s time, meaning one is guaranteed to be in the semi-finals. Likely Maatta and his somewhat surprising contributions at evens (2C!), PK and even PP. Music!
Love these references. Having grown up on St. John’s time, I feel compelled to point out to those who might think it’s another obscure hamlet in the Alberta heartland, ir runs on a (very!) different clock. Game time here in AB is 10:00.
Speaking of a different clock, and though I’m sure you’re well aware of this quirky NL travel destination, I thought those not in the know may find this interesting:
I am taking a trip with the missus soon to the Isle of St. Pierre et Miquelon, that despite being only a 45 min ferry ride off the NL coast remains property of France, complete with Euros (the currency), passport requirements and inexpensive liquor/wine.
From St. John’s it is about a 4 hr drive to the ferry terminal in the SW (or “backwards” from a time zone perspective) direction, but is actually somehow another 30 min. ahead of SJ time haha.
I am resigned to the fact that during my visit there I will probably feel much like Kramer being on the corner of 1st and 1st, aka at the “Nexus of the Universe.”
I visited St Pierre a few years ago. One of the strangest places I’ve ever been. If you want to eat out, make sure you make a reservation!
Speaking of Isle of St. Pierre et Miquelon, they did a cameo appearance on the final season of Peeky Blinders!
Yes I saw that! I believe one activity we are doing there is actually a tour based on it’s history with prohibition, which sounds fascinating.
Or, as they would say in Suomi, “Musiikki!”
Thank you for doing this thing you are doing.