Years ago, in the late summer of 2007, I wrote an item that worried over the roster Craig MacTavish had been given by general manager Kevin Lowe. The players didn’t seem to be MacT types, the two-way forwards and rugged defensemen replaced by hopeful youth. I thought the team was heading in a direction that didn’t play to the strengths of Edmonton’s coach.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Why Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie is in for a make or break season
- Lowetide: Finding Edmonton Oilers’ ideal skill lines for 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers have room for UFA contract or PTO. Is there a match?
- Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
SEPTEMBER 30, 2007
This is Bob Bailey. He could hit the ball a long way. Gene Mauch once said “Bailey means wood, Bailey doesn’t mean leather” and that sentiment could be applied to the 07-08 Edmonton Oilers. Although we don’t know the actual makeup of the roster, it would appear that the Edmonton Oilers will be lacking in leather. Word today in the Edmonton Journal that Patrick Thoresen is likely to be sent out means that the Oilers are going “high event” up front and on the blueline.
I don’t really see that it fits the coaching style of Craig MacTavish. His best teams have usually have the EV advantage and solid PK numbers, while struggling mightily (and hilariously) on the PP. One could argue that the SCF team had plenty of firepower but they could play the game straight up too. The Oilers currently boast a nice “roto” roster of powerplay options, including Hemsky’s puck wizardy, Souray’s rocket launcher and Dustin Penner’s ability to block out the sun. Some of these guys, like Bob Bailey, are less impressive when the other guy is at the plate.
They have a terrific group of kids with huge futures, including the impressive Andrew Cogliano and the ridiculous Sam Gagner. Robert Nilsson lit it up in pre-season too, and there’s a general giddiness about the team’s future because of these kids. However, much of the giddiness has to do with the wood, not the leather. The Oilers rookie crop boasts some big time home run prospects, but can they pick it? For the second season in a row, this Edmonton Oiler team doesn’t seem to fit a Craig MacTavish template. On top of that, the old double play combination (Smyth, Smith) is gone this fall. I’m hoping Craig MacTavish will surprise and amaze. Batter up!
JAY WOODCROFT’S OILERS
What do we know about Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson as coaches? Well, they have done well in developing young talent of all types. Speedy Ryan McLeod and Philip Broberg, but also mortal boots with two-way ability like Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones. William Lagesson even.
If we look at the Oilers on the day the two men arrived, what changed? Philip Broberg and Markus Niemelainen were recalled, Kyle Turris placed on the injured list, Duncan Keith on injured list and Zack Kassian on LTIR. That’s a lot of change. Edmonton got faster and lost a pile of experience. Colton Sceviour was recalled and then sent down. Looking back on the moves, it’s difficult to know what transactions where demotions or confirmation, and what was purely ‘next man up’ around injury.
What changed? Let’s start with Ryan McLeod. Under Dave Tippett, McLeod played 11:22 at five-on-five (1.28 points-per-60), 30 seconds a night on the power play and nine seconds on the penalty kill. Total minutes per game: 11:22.
In the Woodcroft games, McLeod played 10:34 at five-on-five (1.19 points-per-60), 1:02 on the power play (7:57 points-per-60) and 1:58 on the penalty kill (3.99 GA per 60, second best total among forwards). Total minutes per game: 13:58.
Tippett valued McLeod the rookie, but used him at five-on-five and even strength most of the time. Woodcroft used McLeod’s speed and three of 14 minutes were on special teams. Woodcroft did similar things with Evan Bouchard, placing him in a better position to succeed.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think it’s fair to say Woodcroft has increased his pool of available talent due to willingness to deploy young players from Bakersfield. It makes sense, he knows them better than anyone. It’s also true Woodcroft is looking for speed on offense and defense, relfected in the McLeod minutes. He could have faded Derick Brassard, but instead used McLeod to gain zone entry under control on the power play as a consistent tool.
Dave Tippett used Colton Sceviour because he knew what the player would bring. Under Tippett, Sceviour played 1:46 per game on the PK, about the same as McLeod in the Woodcroft games. However, McLeod’s PK unit allowed 3.99 GA-60, Sceviour’s group 11:31. That isn’t fair to Sceviour, these are small samples and luck plays a part in the PK, but Sceviour’s numbers on the PK have never been exceptional.
What should we look for? My own feeling (we don’t have enough evidence to make sweeping statements) is that the Woodcroft-Manson coaching tandem changes the equation in order to increase available talent. Much like Whitey Herzog, the old St. Louis Cardinals manager who said we’re not going to worry about Willie McGee’s lack of home run power, we’re going to count his doubles and triples as long hits, and watch him turn triples into outs playing centerfield, I think this coaching staff is willing to deploy players who have specialties.
Take Vincent Desharnais as an example. He isn’t a fast skater, but his wingspan works well in pure defensive situations, and his footwork has improved. I can see him dressing as a seventh defenseman, getting defensive zone starts and PK time. I can also see James Hamblin (eventually) getting bottom-six time because of his foot speed. Like Herzog, who won a world series with jackrabbits and control pitchers because they were plentiful, so too Woodcroft appears to be one of those innovators who increases the talent pool by accepting what a player cannot do, and placing that player in positions ton succeed. Too soon to know, but some nice evidence.
PATRICK KANE
Plenty of discussion on the blog yesterday about acquiring Patrick Kane. Some of the trade ideas I read included Jesse Puljujarvi and or Warren Foegele, the 2023 first-round selection and other items. As a hockey deal, acquiring Kane makes sense. It gives the team a massive upgrade on right-wing for the season to come.
I believe acquiring Kane at the trade deadline is a better way, because the team’s needs may change between now and then. What if Zach Hyman moves to right wing, and he, KY and JP flourish at the position? More importantly, what if holes appear on defense or there is an injury among the goalies? Ken Holland doesn’t know what he doesn’t know about the February Oilers, best to keep his powder dry.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day 10-2, TSN 1260. We’ll chat CFL, NFL, Oilers and Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to chat Oilers and Albert Pujols. Your comments are welcome, any subject, 10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
RE: Trogdor: Hey LT: I’m relatively sure you owe me 10 thousand imaginary points…what the hell? 😉
Off topic completely. Music post!
I have been listening to a steady diet of Queens of the Stone Age (LT, if you haven’t done a deep dive, this is right up your alley.) That, and I’m the one IME fan left, apparently and they’re in permanent cycle (post Edwin for me.)
Feeling nostalgic, I started listening to Our Lady Peace again…and holy cow! They’ve kept releasing albums, and their last 3 (which I hadn’t noticed) are freaking great! If any of y’all forgot about them, have a listen because they are creating some insanely good music, and stylistically, it’s all over the place in the best way.
Yup, Buffalo.
https://theathletic.com/3509824/2022/08/25/buffalo-sabres-nhl-pipeline-rankings-prospects/
In reference to a particular individual here – I am intrigued by what appears to be analogous to the “Schrodinger’s Cat” paradox.
It goes like this – any given player/prospect is “alive” (i.e., a sure thing, superior, destined for greatness) IF said player is on any other team but Oilers and “dead” (i.e., a loser, likely a total failure, destined to regress, lose a step, get injured, fail to produce) IF on the Oilers roster.
I think I have this correct.
Are you *allowed* to hack HH’s account like this? I mean, the math and the eyetest really check out here, but still…
Other than VGK signing Kessel, it’s a slow news day so I thought I would share this fun fact. I’m watching some celebrity golf tournament on the Golf Channel where I learned that baseball HOF pitcher Tom Glavine was drafted by the LAK in the 4th round in 1984. Turns out that after his baseball career was over, he played one game in the ECHL at the age of 43.
I knew he was drafted but didn’t know he played that ECHL game…. tks.
Crazy to think that the guy was talented enough to pick his sport…he very much could have been an NHL player. Really interesting to see how the gene pool can shine on someone.
Kessel signs in Vegas.
1 year, $1.5MM
NHL Cinderella franchise, turn heel franchise going to healthy scratch Phill Kessel……
You think Kessel’s no good?
I didn’t say, nor imply, that.
Apologies. What does your post mean/imply? I don’t understand at all it seems.
Ah, games streak. Got it.
Considering the respect they’ve shown their UFA hires, and the rumours about players being less inclined to sign there in 2022…they’re already Hollywood Hulk Hogan. It’s interesting to see the character ark from cute little innocent underdog, to what they’ve become. 🙂
Seravelli on the DFO:
A number of teams have reached out to the Hawks asking if he’s open to a move. My intelligence remains that he’s not interested in a trade before the season starts. If he is going to go, he’ll want to go near the deadline and decide then. NYR, EDM, TML – teams that have at least discussed Kane internally.
I spent entirely too long thinking TML was a weird way to specify TaMpa Bay Lighting.
(Relevant to my stupidity; I’ve been living in Toronto for two years now)
I always thought it meant Too Many Losers.
Boom.
To Redman ystd. Trading Nylander for Kane hastens the collapse of the Leafs and I’m really surprised folks aren’t awake to this. The Leafs are where they are today cause Dubas chased shiny new jammies instead of focusing on the guys he drafted and developed.
Look at all the UFAs that come up in two season. Look how bare that backend and internal cover is prospect wise.
And think about how many draft picks Dubas has sent out the door.
There is not an insignificant chance that TO is in tear down mode in two years. Shocking I know considering the love for Dubas on this blog.
This year he bet the farm on Matt Murray… Talk about BOLD!
One more season after this of squeezing pennies?
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/bill-daly-believes-nhl-salary-cap-could-rise-significantly-after-2023-24-season/
NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly is optimistic the salary cap can get a significant boost after the 2023-24 season — a year ahead of earlier forecasts from the league.
“I’ve seen some preliminary estimates recently which would make me more optimistic on the cap gong up sooner whether that’s in two seasons or three seasons, I think it’s more likely than not two seasons rather than three,” Daly said in an interview with Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek from European Media Day on Wednesday.
Hope for the best but plan for worst case scenario!
Get that escrow balance paid off – the revenues are already there (from accounts).
The intel on the World Cup of Hockey sounds very promising to me.
All I care about is that we get a best on best, nation vs. nation tournament at least every four years.
I don’t care if its the Olympics, the World Cup, the Canada Cup or whatever they want to call it – best on best and nation vs. nation is what I want.
It sounds like this is what it’ll be – its a trio of the NHL/NHLPA/IIHF and the IIHF is being key so its not just an NHL event like the last one that wasn’t a best on best as it only had NHL players and not all countries.
Sounds like this will be in Feb of 2024 and will be over 15 days. There could be games in Europe plus in N. America but those are just details.
When was the last time we had a real nation vs. nation tournament with ALL the best players being available.
Russia notwithstanding at this point.
Who do you think is #1 on pronman’s list LT?
Anaheim?
It must be the Kings, no?
LA has dropped to 10
4 graduations and a trade.
It might be Ottawa at #1.
Ah.
So does that mean we’ll no longer be hearing about their epic prospect depth?
And yes, Ottawa does look like a good guess as #1.
Ah.
So does that mean we’ll no longer be hearing about their epic prospect depth?
================
You know it doesn’t. 😉
No you’ll be hearing about how all those young players are propelling the Kings up the standings.
You think they’ll finish higher than 3rd in the Pacific, 6th in the West this year?
They could.
They finished with 99 points last season..5 points behind the Oilers while missing two top 4D for most of the season.
The addition of Kevin Fiala is a perfect solution to the scoring issues they’ve had and will have a knock on effect by moving another effective player to the third line.
Fiala is also a great addition to their PP which was 27th in the league last season and they’ve added a new PP coach which should help.
With natural development of young players like Byfield and Kalyiev as well as maturation of their young D, I can see them finishing around 110 points if all goes well.
110 seems bold, but that’s why they play the games.
5 more wins and an OT loss is hardly insurmountable.
while missing two top 4D for most of the season.
=================
Are you referring to the 36 year old Edler and the soon to be 33 year old Doughty?
And if so what makes you think their health will be any more reliable this coming season?
No..
Im referring to 27 year old Sean Walker who played only 6 games before suffering a broken leg.
Doughty was performing at an elite level before fracturing his wrist.
Edler played very well playing a shut down role on the third pairing so the Kings brought him back on a cheap one year deal.
There are no guarantees about injury for any team so suggesting they should be factored in to projections is silly.
What if McDavid and Nurse missed half the season with injuries?
Where would you project them to finish?
Lose in the conference final? (assuming they still weren’t healthy)
Meh.
Colorado had far more injuries.
What do Colorado’s injuries have to do with the Oilers beating LA and Calgary with Draisaitl, Nurse and Smith injured?
Isn’t the equatable to Doughty/Walker actually Nurse/Keith….. not Nurse/McDavid?
Well yes, that’s also true. LA has no one in the McDavid/Draisaitl range.
I’m sure Fiala will now get there this year….
Once players get into their 30’s injuries start to take their toll on hockey players. You know this. Nothing silly about it at all. I said the same thing about Smith in goal for the Oilers last season.
A fractured wrist caused by a slash is not age related…could happen to anyone.
See Dylan Holloway for reference.
Pardon me for not knowing the details of how LA dmen were injured last season.
Again curves cited time after time after time but, now, of course, non-Oiler players won’t see increase injury risk as they age…..
Smith was 40 and plays a position that requires a wide range of unnatural movements.
Not the same at all.
Duncan Keith was 37 and did fairly well.
Smith fell several times during the Playoffs when no one was around, he just flopped to the ice. It was never brought up by the announcers or the goofy in-between period panel. . My guess would be cramps or a trick knee.
Could be – Byfield is going to pop at some point, I think.
I’m not sure abut “Drai level popping” but he’s a big and powerful center and will have the luxury of 3C for a bit.
Kaliyev is also a top 6 talent playing in the bottom six and could break out for 20 plus.
Byfield is overrated and putting him in the same sentence as Leon is Hilarious. You do relize Leon was the MVP of the league a few years back and he’s just warming up.
Perhaps you should read the post again.
I didn’t.
You did.
“Who’s on first, what’s on second, and ‘I don’t Know,’ is on third” Why the fuk would anyone compare Leon the Great to some underwhelming prospect in Tinsel Town.
Someone should, once again, read the post again.
No one did…except you.
Buffalo then Ottawa
More like some pretty bad years from some pretty high draft picks
New Jersey
Hughes, Hughes, Mercer, and the Slovak.
I’ll say Buffalo.
Dahlin, Power, Cozens, M. Savoie, Peterka, Rosen, Ostlund, Kulich, etc. is a formidable group.
Jack Quinn, Devon Levi, and Payton Krebs
Yeah it would have to be Buffalo
Buffalo again.
Keeping your powder dry has costs, LT. Just like last year, Dutchy waiting until very late to jettison Tipp put the Oilers in a place where they required a significant turnaround in order to make the playoffs. (And who knows, if Tipp left earlier, maybe they get to the WCF less injured and with more Smith left in the tank)
Who ‘expected’ the turnaround we saw last year once Tipp was fired? Would the same coaching change have produced superior results had it been made a month prior? That’s a question for the multiverse.
On the note of Kane, the risk also with doing nothing is that another good team gets him earlier. If PKane is available, this is an arms race among contenders.
I cant believe how much people are sleeping on Patrick Kane. Its probably because hes accomplished so much with his career (3 Stanley cups, Calder, Conn Smythe, Art Ross, Ted Lindsay) that people seem to think hes washed up?
Patrick Kane is near the level of Draisatl. Call it a hot take but the man is still good, one of the best Americans to ever play the game if not the best.
By even strength scoring over the last 5 seasons Kane has ranked:
21-22 – Tied for 13th with wonder boy Mackinnon
20-21 – Tied for 6th with Rat Marchand
19-20 – 4th (1 behind Mackinnon for 3rd)
18-19 – Tied for 2nd with Kucherov (1 behind McDavid)
17-18 – Tied for 20th with Pasta (1 behind Drai)
Over the last 5 seasons Chicago has finished 27th,21st, 23rd, 20th, and 25th. The only decent team mate Kane has had recently has been Debrincat.Strome/Hagel/Toews if youre feeling generous.
If you start to pencil Kane into the Oilers top 9 you have a three headed monster. Makes the most sense to load the top 6 but you could have a literal game breaker on each line.
While he’s lost a step or two, those hands and his shiftiness are what makes him the best American to have ever played – better than Modano, imo.
A full season of Kane with Drai wins Drai the Rocket imo. Id agree with Kane over Modano. The only question mark (in 10 years, not so much today) is Matthews.
I still think Chelios is the best American ever with Hull as a close second. If Kane comes to Edmonton he’ll definitely pass Leetch, Housely and Modano with Hull and Chelios within reach. I’m drawing a blank when’s the last time 2 Oilers had the same last name???
The Hollands….:)
Do the Acton’s count 🙂
Will Acton name shall be stricken immediately of anything Oiler by Winston Smith from the Ministry of Truth.
Hehe 😉
Geoff and Steve Smith?
I had a look, since I shouldn’t be working right now.
The most recent two Oilers with the same last name are Kris and Patrik Russell between 2018 and 2021.
Before that, Justin and Nick Schultz (2012-14). They were even partners IIRC.
Jason and Dan Smith overlapped briefly in 2005-06, plus Ryan Smyth was also on that team (Ryan and Jason overlapped from 1998-2007)
Steve and Doug (1988-89 season), then Steve and Geoff Smith (1989-91) were also teammates.
Mark Howe is sort of underrated.
Indeed he was.
Getting close now.
Dan Rosen
@drosennhl
Just sat down with Leon Draisaitl at the NHL’s European Player Media Tour in Paris. Belief in the Oilers’ as a Stanley Cup contender is strong, real now after reaching the WCF last season. Draisaitl was training in Toronto with Jack Campbell. He’s heading to Edmonton on Aug. 29.
Nice to hear Campbell is buddies with the German. Jack’s right in the middle of the core it’s time to bring back the Cup to the Motherland of Edmonton
I can’t remember the last time I was this positive about the team going in to the season.
Holland brought in a couple of rugged wingers with hands. He also replaced a Goalie tandem that has one of them who falls down for no reason and the other is nicknamed the Swiss Miss by the opposition.
i don’t even know how to start with making the $$ work for a Patrick Kane trade.
50% retained and ship out Foegel and Pulju. Retention may be easier on Kane since he is only being paid 2.9 real dollars rest of this year. Hell maybe even get a third team for another 50% retention.
The 3rd team retaining 50% (after Chicago retaining 50%) shouldn’t be too expensive asset-wise either, due the the low real salary remaining. Only $745k real money would need to be taken by Arizona or the like (3rd round pick? couldn’t cost more than a 2nd I don’t think).
50% retained by Chicago, then 50% of that retained by whoever would leave the Oilers (or another team!) with a cap hit of $2.625M for the year for Patrick Kane.
Ya, making the money work isn’t actually that “hard” presuming the Hawks are willing to retain half and another team is willing to help chop the remaining 50% in half.
The issue is that each of those steps further adds to the acquisition cost.
I know the cash outlay would be fairly minor for the 3rd team but I still don’t think it’ll be a nominal piece – they’ll be looking for a 2nd rounder min (in my opinion) and it this coming draft year.
Could be wrong.
I’m not sure why it would be that high for $745k.
The retained salary trades I found on Capfriendly were deadline deals with teams retaining between $2.125M and $2.75M. With about 1/4 of the season left those equate to $500-$700k in remaining salary paid by each team.
The cost in each case was a 4th or a 5th round pick. Perhaps something is fundamentally different here, but I’m not sure what that would be.
Whoever gets P. Kane (if it’s a contender) will become the favorite to win Stanley.
I can’t imagine that he would accept a trade to a shitty non-contender like the Canucks or Flames, etc.
Thinking of Woody and deployment, it seems almost universally agreed that McDavid will be 1C and Leon 2C. Of course, they will be loaded up at times, situationally, but thought that they would center different lines.
Remember the playoffs when they played together with Kane and were setting all time records for point production, etc.?
Of course, that deployment was due to Leon’s injury and his inability to skate well enough to play center but, given how dominant that duo (trio) was in the playoffs, do we think that Woody has any thought of just rolling them out on October 12?
I mean: Hyman/Nuge/Yamamoto and Foegele/McLeod/Jesse aren’t terrible 2nd/3rd lines either (and replace Foegele with Holloway if required or desired)……
I’m not saying I’m a proponent of this or that I think Woody is event contemplating it but might he?
I thinking keeping both of those scenarios fresh forces teams to deepens their defensive playbook. I’d play them on different lines in order to develop Clan McLeod at 3C but then combine them for regular, unpredictable pushes throughout games (not just when they need a goal).
That’s just my thoughts tho.. having them prepared for the constant blender has costs too
Wouldn’t playing them together also keep McLeod at 3C as Nuge would be 2C?
I’m a big believer in maximizing your biggest strength as a team.
Rather than seeking absolute balance – make your biggest strength so overwhelming that competitors can’t catch you.
P Kane. Right now.
Kane gives the Oilers 2 supernova first lines.
EKane – McDavid – Hyman
Nuge – Drai – PKane
Easier to play defense when the puck is constantly in the other teams net.
100% agreed. And avoid having another team have this.
I want this. I want it now.
This is one of the positions that I have as well.
ALOT of powder will need to be soaked to acquire Kane and that powder won’t be dry for other in-season moves….. what if Campbell gets hurt? What is Kulak falters and Broberg is uneven? What if Ceci or, god forbid, Nurse gets hurt?
Oh my gosh Stauffer is like a dog with a bone. Talking non stop about acquiring Kane!!!
It’ll be interesting to see where Kane wants to go. I can’t imagine he’ll want to inhale the tire fire fumes of the Blackhawks this season. Since he has his NMC, we “should” be able to narrow down the teams he’d pick from:
1) Edm: we know the argument
2) Col: SC champs, but few picks to trade
3) NYR: why not, they’re close
4) Car: Stastny signing probably says they’re out
5) Pitt: a chance to play with Sid & Geno
6) TB: no 1sts to trade
7) TO: gets to play with fellow American AM34
anyone else obvious?
I agree with you that we might see Deharnais.
For me, at this point, based on watching him play over the last two years, I’m not convinced he’ll be able to play his game at the NHL level with the faster and more skilled forwards – I’m not convinced his mobility will be enough (even with his size) or that he’ll be able to help keep possession of the puck once he get its.
At the same time, right now he’s 4th on the right shot depth chart and was developed by Manson/Woody and we may very well see him. For me, Samorukov is the clear #7 and, if there is a RD injury, I would be more apt for Broberg or Sammy to shift over before Deharnais sees the ice – I don’t like that but I think that’s where we are.
At the same time, I also don’t think that Malone is an NHL player but Woody favored his old captain over more established NHL players such as Shore and other options such as Benson so, yes, I could very well see Vinny play. At this point, I don’t like it but I will cheer like hell for him and hope these posts get bumped!
I also agree on Hamblin and have been posting it for a while now.
He was a very trusted player by Woody in the AHL – he was used up and down the lineup, in all positions and in all situations – top line, 3rd line, center, wing, PP, PK, etc., etc.
He’s like a Yamamoto-light where he’s quick and tenacious with some skill.
He’s a darkhorse but, in some ways, I think he can be more effective then Malone depending on deployment – quick and tenacious has its place and role, right?
Woodcroft’s Oilers took the Flames to the woodshed, and even let them win 1 so that I could watch game 5 here in Calgary. That was as good as winning the cup IMO. Unforgettable season turnaround – hoping for the same in 2023.
The “new Nuge” being developed in front of our eyes in real time. Perhaps a bit shy with 5 on 5 offence but a special teams ace.
His PP scoring will likely never be at Nuge’s level but McLeod was right at the top of the PP2 leaderboard for scoring rates and I anticipate he’ll be PP2 all year long. His PK TOI was 2nd among forwards in the playoffs – he will be a huge part of the PK on this team for the next decade.
I don’t know where his 5 on 5 offence will go over the next decade but I do know that he will be elite at skating the puck out, through an in……
I agree with LT not to pull the trigger on a Kane deal this summer. The problem is that the Oilers have to use assets to acquire the player and then use more assets to get Kane under the cap. The Oilers already have to best power play in the league and they would have to pull someone off of it to put Kane on there. Seems like a redundant trade to me when what the oilers really need is a right shot 3 line centre face off ace.
Right handed Center would be nice but theres no obvious solution. As for Kane being redundant since the PP is so good.
2021-22 ES Scoring Edmonton
McDavid – 34G – 44A – 77P
Drai – 30G -38A – 68P
Hyman – 21G – 19A – 40 P
2021-22 ES Scoring Edmonton
Kane – 17G – 44A – 61P
Debrincat – 27G – 23A – 50P
Strome – 17G – 15A – 32P
P Kane did more at evens (and on the powerplay) than any Oilers not named McDrai and he did it on a much lesser team. Kane will go down as the best or one of the best (need to see Matthews career plays out) American players of all time. This is not adding another okay top 6 winger this is adding another game breaker.
Yeah, I was looking at something similar earlier.
In the last 5 seasons P. Kane is 4th in the league in total points (McDavid, Drai, MacKinnon, Kane). (16th in goals, 4th in assists)
At even strength he’s 3rd in points (McDavid, Drai, Kane/Panarin tied). (9th in EV goals)
He’s been good on the PP too (14th in PP points), but relatively stronger at evens.
And yes, he’s done it without a ton of help. He’s led Chicago in points 5 of 5 years. But at least 24 points in 4 of those years, and only 10 points over DeBrincat in the 56 game Covid season.
He’s an actual star, who’s very much still at the top of his game.
You took the words out of my mouth. One last thing I just thought of too is if the Oilers get Kane another team cant. Say the Flames swing for the fences and trade for Kane I would be a lot more nervous about matching up with them.
Its an arms race to the cup.
He is essentially a one year or less rental depending on if or when he is acquired. I can see no way they can afford him going forward with the cap being where it’s at and Bouchard needing a new contract.
Woodcroft learnt a big lesson from Sutter . Don’t stand around waiting for him to shake hands after defeating his team .
Woodcroft really did work out well once he arrived. The screams for change were loud by the time it came and many thought Woodcroft the best option because of his integration with the club and strong possession numbers. Good thing it happened, because we could have missed the playoffs.
Thing is, I can’t say what Woodcroft did to right the ship. Was it deployment, tactics, motivation or luck. Anyone more clever than me knows the recipe of the secret sauce? I think it’s important to ask because now he has to do it again +8 wins.
Woodcroft understands the fundamentals of hockey better than 99.9% of the rest of us. Combine that with his having just spent his professional lifetime preparing for the opportunity to coach an NHL team and you’re off to the races.
When we lost 6 in a row starting with Seattle on the road then 5 regulation losses in a row at home with Tippett totally lost with any sort of matchups. Tippett just kept doubling down and played Leon and Connor to the bone . That’s when I knew Tippett lost the room, like Derek Ryan basically said you need a team too win not just 2 players. Also Manson is the straw that stirs the drink on the D deployment. Give Charlie a trading camp with a steady eddy Goaltender and Ladies and Gents we’re a top 4 team points wise this year.
we’re a top 4 team points wise this year
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I’m fairly optimistic about the team Holland is constructing this summer and I am very impressed by Woodcroft and Manson but top 4 is a steep hill to climb.
Do you mind sharing which 3 teams you think are better or just as good?
Canes.Av’s. Rangers. Oilers.
Hehe. Those would be my picks for the top 3 as well.
I like to rank teams by goal differential rather than points to see where they are at when comparing teams.
Last year:
Florida +94 (1)
Calgary +85 (6)
Colorado +78 (2)
Carolina +76 (3)
St Louis +69 (9)
Toronto +62 (4)
Minnesota +57 (5)
TB +54 (8)
NYR +47 (7)
Pittsburgh +43 (12)
Edmonton +38 (11)
Boston +35 (10)
Washington +30 (13)
The correlation between goal differential and league standings is quite high. See Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Boston and Washington or Forida, Calgary, Colorado and Carolina. The top 4 and the bottom 4 on the list.
Every one of these teams has a story from the summer, of course. The top two teams on the list made a huge trade with each other.
Colorado lost some skill, Toronto’s goaltending is a major question, NYR has a lot of youth who should make strides.
I guess all I am saying is that it is a difficult climb from +38 into the top 4 of +76.
I say the Oilers score 40-45 more Goals this year. Hyman and Kane are a big step up from the Kahuns and Rieders of the world. I also believe our D will be activated more and collectively score 20-25 more Goals as a group this year.
It’s interesting too that the league has been more polarized the last couple of years.
No idea if it will continue, but in 21-22 there were 6 teams that were +60.
By year, the number of +60 teams (pro-rating for shortened seasons)
21-22 6
20-21 3
19-20 1
18-19 2
17-18 1
16-17 1
15-16 0
14-15 1
13-14 1
12-13 0
Standings points have followed the same trend.
Anyway, all this to say, +76 may or may not end up being the bar the Oilers need to reach to get into the top 4. +38 would actually have been top 4 in 3 of the past 10 seasons.
I’m not going to claim the Oilers will be a top 4 team. I will say there’s a pretty reasonable chance though.
Toronto finished 4th last year with 115 points, the Oilers in 11th at 104. You’ve mentioned before that improving your standing near the top is harder than if you’re at the bottom, and that’s true.
Consider though, under Woodcroft the Oilers had 55 points in 38 games. 119 point pace, which would have had them tied with Colorado for 2nd overall.
I’ve been mostly discounting that a because it was an unusually motivating position for the team to find themselves out of the playoffs at mid-season. So I haven’t been thinking Woodcroft and the team would quite replicate that in the new season.
The team also started off super hot though, before that terrible slump. If you remove the 15 game 2-11-2 run the rest of season was 98 points in 67 games. That’s 120 points over 82 games. I know you can’t just *remove* slumps, and every team has them, but I feel like that kind of slump is very unlikely to repeat itself.
So the beginning AND end of season show a better team than 104 points (a top 4 team in both segments), which makes it feel more likely they could keep up the Woodcroft pace going forward. A final 4 appearance too doesn’t hurt either of course.
I won’t venture into which teams will remain ahead of the Oilers, but will note that Dom’s ranking had the Oilers as the 11th most improved team in the offseason, with every one of the 10 teams ahead of them ranked 18th or lower (including the 3 worst in the league). Many of the teams that were ahead of them are ripe for regression.
Anyway, I try to avoid grandiose productions, and guard against overconfidence, but IMO it’s definitely plausible the Oilers could be in the top 4 this coming season. We will see.
Full marks for laying out the pros and cons of the prognostication. I wrote a little more on the subject while you were typing this looking at goal differential.
I guess my caution going into the season has to do with the youth. I am very high on the potential of all of Broberg, Bouchard, Skinner, Holloway, McLeod, Samorukov, and Bourgault – all of whom I expect to see for at least some games this season.
But it is a lot of youth.
Yes, it is a lot of youth for sure.
Like I said, I’m not expecting them to finish top 4, but I do think a top 4 finish is well within the range of reasonable outcomes.
And I don’t think the team is fully set just yet.
No, probably not.
The cap dump resulting in Kane joining the Oilers would most definitely be a power move 😉
Stauffer is definitely stoking the fire.
Getting points in the Pacific Division is going to be tougher this season.
While Calgary strikes me as about the same, there are other teams that should be better.
LAK adding Fiala addresses a critical need and their young players, (11 – 25 and under) should be expected to improve. If they can get a league average PP, they will be much improved.
Vancouver enters the season with the same sub par D but they have bolstered their forward ranks considerably with the additions of Mikhayev, Kuzmenko and Lazar. They finished only 5 points out of the playoffs last season after the Boudreau Bump.
Seattle was basically the free spot on the bingo card last season but have added Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, Andre Burakosky and Oliver Bjorkstrand up front and Justin Schultz on D. If they get any kind of goaltending they will be a much tougher out.
While I don’t expect them to be the class of the division, the Ducks have made huge strides this offseason. Adding Ryan Strome, Frank Vatarano and Mason MacTavish at forward and John Klingberg on D provides some much needed veteran help as well as a potential star centre in MacTavish. Jamie Drysdale and Olen Zellweger are potential game breakers as modern D.
I don’t think anyone knows what to expect of Vegas but given average health, should be better than last season. They still have a lot of talent but their goaltending situation remains a mystery.
Also important to remember that many of the teams, as currently constructed, will be tolling cap space as the season proceeds and, if in the hunt, could make signficant additions by the deadline.
Deadline Cap Space WC
Anaheim – $87.6 million
Calgary – $9.9 million
Los Angeles – $7 million
Seattle – $4.7 million
Edmonton – 0
San Jose – 0
Vancouver – 0
Vegas – 0
——————————-
Colorado – $18 million
Minnesota – $20 million
Nashville $11 million
Winnipeg $29.2 million
St. Louis $3 million
Dallas – TBD (Robertson and Oettiger still unsigned)
Arizona – $20.3
Chicago – $35 million
I should point out that not all of these represent complete rosters but, at this point in the pre-season, it is likely those holes get filled by players on cheap contracts so won’t change things much.
Well what do you know? An assessment from you that indicates EVERY single team EXCEPT the Oilers will improve this year. Imagine that? You do stick to a formula….
The reduction in ice time for McDavid and Draisaitl was noticeable and seemed to have an impact on the team psyche as everyone was involved again. However, the turn around was so drastic that it feels like it must have been more than psychology.
Woody himself and some players said he changed their offensive zone tactics to improve ‘backtracking’ or what we usually call backchecking
It greatly improved the neutral zone defense which was awful under Tipp. It had been a wide open freeway with teams easily gaining the O zone
Combined with few D good at breaking cycles and stopping cross ice passes remember all the extended D zone time and glass and outs coming straight back at them
I hope they can take another step and tighten up even more. This is why I have been for moving Barrie if a more defensive replacement for less cap could be found
According to NHL Sid Barrie isn’t great at defending the D blue line or that strong in the D zone when defending. The Oiler’s biggest weakness IMO. Barrie does move the puck pretty well, but so do the other D. More leather is needed than wood for better balance
I agree on Barrie. Like him as a player and I think he has more than covered his cap hit during his time with the team but the defence as it sits today is not balanced. That is not Barrie’s fault but he is the solution.
Not sure how often he did that. It isn’t that I don’t think Barrie doesn’t help win games. It is his cap hit that makes him a trade target as well as a level of redundancy.
I believe that Barrie has value! I also believe that he is the player that should be moved to get cap compliant. Barrie’s value is at peak and should garner a prospect and a second or third round draft choice. His cap should allow not only cap compliance but allow the Oilers to extend Bouchard. The team may be able to acquire a veteran D for league minimum on a one year deal. It is also better than having to give up assets to move another roster player to get cap compliant.
I don’t disagree but its a tough trade at this point, isn’t it?
If we are talking about a prospect and pick back, I’m not sure there are many willing teams that are able to take on $4.5MM. Also, that trade weakens the team quite a bit given the likely gap between any signed d-man to back-fill (i.e Subban, De Haan). Its also likely leads to depth/injury risk as Barrie has been quite durable and the signing is likely an older guy.
Foegele out and replaced by Holloway might make the team worse but it might not. Heck, maybe it makes the team better, right?
A Barrie for Mayfield type trade could be one that doesn’t make the team worse, and maybe better – it could go either way, really. I’m just not sure that trade is available.
I agree that the team defense seemed to improve under Woodcroft, but I struggle to believe Tippett was not coaching them to backcheck. So was it a change of structure or assignments? I’m naive to hockey tactics, but always like to hear about the X and Os.
I don’t have an answer, but did observe changes to deployment which seemed to reap immediate dividends.
Barrie’s play seemed night and day to me pre-Mandwood and post, but I couldn’t tell you what changed, other than the blue as a whole not appearing to give up the D line so easy.
I remember Tippet blaming the players for that, and more knowledgeable people than me confirming m the difficulty coaches/players have teaching/executing that aspect, but I think it took all of a week for the new staff to clean that up. It was imo an immediate, obvious difference.
It did seem like Woodcroft was better at chasing matchups than Tippett. I’m guessing that’s important for helping weaker defenders hold the line, since you can keep them from getting overmatched with speed. So, why wasn’t Tippett doing it?
I don’t understand how a Boudreau Bump can be cited materially without mention of a Woodcroft Bump.
I don’t understand how a Lazar acquisition can be cited materially without mention of a Janmark, for example.
My own feeling (we don’t have enough evidence to make sweeping statements) is that the Woodcroft-Manson coaching tandem changes the equation in order to increase available talent.
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To me this is really the job description of a coach – or manager in a business setting – in a nutshell.
Okay lets keep it simple: Unless Woodcroft-Manson take over the Oilers team when they did Oilers as constituted and coached at that time by Tippett were either lottery candidates or 1 round and out.
Compare this to the truth of what really happened. They took a team over and after Colorado the eventual champion whooped their banged up and now playoff hardened warrior selves, can now be considered one of the genuine favorites to come out of the West.
Not sure what this has to do with what I wrote but sure.
You are bang on re small sample size but there were a number of small changes made by the new coaching regime that netted great results. Utilization of McLeod on the PK and his increased ice time being but one example of a number of different personnel utilizations. Also was the utilization of 7 D. Taking advantage of last change to line change, rarely used by Tippet, another difference.
You have some solidly bold predictions for the year, LT.
woooooooweeeeeeeeeeee
This is a very reasonable take, and true.
Just wanted to note that salary wise, after double retention, P. Kane’s AAV would be less than Foegele or Puljujarvi’s ($2.625M).
It’s true any assets spent on Kane would not be available for other needs that might arise (and that’s an important point), but subbing in Kane for Puljujarvi would likely actually save the Oilers cap space for the upcoming season.
Thing is, Kane won’t want to take any part of the shitshow in Chicago this year. He’ll want to start with his new team right from training camp.
Also, Kyle Davidson doesn’t want Kane to help the Hawks win in any way. They’re in tight with Arizona in the most epic tank battle since 2015, so expect Davidson to want to deal Kane before the regular season begins.
The time is now or never, so basically it’s now.
Sounds good to me!
You were the first poster that brought up the Kane to Edmonton deal a few weeks ago. A certain number of posters scoffed at this outrageous trade rumour. I myself thought no way in hell this could happen because of being up against the cap. Well it’s a few weeks later and there’s still smoke surrounding this possible deal. If Holland pulls this off I still think you should get most of the credit for having the pulse of the Oilers.
Kane will have the final say due his no movement clause. Chicago will have to eat cap in all probability regardless of where Kane agrees to be moved. For Chicago’s best value in return a trade deadline deal will hold the most value. It will be fun to see how this plays out!
The trouble with P Kane is unless they get him quick some other smart team is going to get him.
As long as it’s not Calgary who would instantly become a scary team.
Kane may not want any part of the shitshow in Chicago. That seems logical but, of course, we just don’t know that.
He very well might want to stay and play for the only org he has ever played for in a famous World Class city. We don’t know that is the case either.
There hasn’t been any intel from any insider that he has asked to be moved or has been asked if he’d waive his trade protection. Either of those could have happened but, again, they just as easily may not have.
If we presume he is open to, or wanting, a trade, he very well could be open to the Oilers – McDavid/Drai and cup contention. On the other hand, he could have zero interest in Edmonton because, well, Edmonton……. both of those are reasonable possibilities.
Two unknown bullets need to be shot: firstly, him wanting to, or willing to, move and, secondly, him wanting to, or being OK with, moving to Edmonton.
Then, of course, cost, fit, risk, etc., etc., etc.
Woodcroft’s Oilers & McAlpine’s Fusiliers
Sounds like the battle of the Highland pipe bands.
I’d pay money to hear that actually. Can’t beat the pipes.
When does the puck drop at camp ?
im getting my annual hockey itch.
Lets see which of our young D men
have grown both physically and mentally
is Sammy completely healthy, did Broberg really gain 15 lbs of muscle and hair…..is Holloway the player we hope and think he is….
Man, we the unwashed are ready for a puck drop and answers to warm weather questions.
Rookie tourney in Penticton is the weekend of Sept 16th so rookie camp likely starts a few days before that and I think regular camp open up the following week.
Ya baby!
I think Sammy should be healthy as he ended up not needing surgery and the intel was that he could have been an option later in the playoffs if the Condors made it a few rounds.
Woodcoach understands the game at its fundamental level. You could give him the 1974 Philadelphia Flyers or the 2011 Vancouver Canucks and he would instantly adapt to the situation.
Compare this with the “systems” coaches who as Oiler fans we have been forced to suffer – watching them not have a clue how to deploy skill players due to a coaches lack of intelligence re skill players.
Woody is going to take this team to either a leading Western Conference finish or very close to it. Forget about those posers in Cowtown.
I think you need both. You need innovators and guys who understand the value of sound defensive systems. Issues arise when Coaches box players into a role with no way out.
Tippett rode McD and Leon as hard as you possibly could and never let his bottom six get the chance to shine offensively. Ryan said as much after Tip left.
Rewards for good defensive play are times to let the offense shine. Carrots along with sticks.
This is where ManWood can make a Bigly difference IMO.