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Last night, the Edmonton Oilers threw the auditioning talent to the proverbial wolves, and many bubble players burst. Not everyone can make like Shelley Winters and swim the gap successfully, and many hopefuls wake up under water this morning. Even some of the locks for opening night had difficulty, led by Mattias Janmark, who looks to have been bitten by the “I will never score again” bug that attacked Tobias Rieder in 2018-19. I expect we’ll see cuts soon.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Are Edmonton Oilers’ recent trades supported by analytics?
- Lowetide: If Ryan McLeod lands on the Connor McDavid line, how much of an offensive boost would it be?
- DNB: Oilers notes: Dylan Holloway impresses vs. Jets
- DNB: How Edmonton Oilers’ salary cap and training camp impacts roster decisions
- Lowetide: 5 obscure Edmonton Oilers prospects pushing for an NHL look
- DNB: Darnell Nurse’s big-money contract with Oilers isn’t going to change who he is or how he plays
- Lowetide: For the Oilers and analytics, how much progress has been made?
- DNB: Oilers sign Ryan McLeod to 1-year contract extension
- DNB: 10 questions to address in training camp
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ right wing options on skill lines may be shifting
- Lowetide: The truth about Jesse Puljujarvi and the Edmonton Oilers
- DNB: Jack Campbell is determined to win in Edmonton: ‘I’m ready for this’
- Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ most likely recalls from AHL Bakersfield in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
NOTES
- Calvin Pickard played well, I think he’s won the No. 3 goalie job by now. Stopped all the easy and mid-level shots, was beaten by the only HDSC according to NST.
- Stuart Skinner played less well, but there should be no concrn. The normally tight structure wilted a little as the game went on last night, making the goalie job more difficult. Allowed the only HDSC he saw, just like Pickard.
- Tyson Barrie spent a total of nine minutes against the Kadri and Lindholm lines, going 4-5 shots. That’s a solid effort. Barrie also had three shots, three blocked shots and one giveaway. I thought he played well.
- Ryan Murray isn’t as fast as he was, but played 21:25 pretty clean minutes and had elevated time on both special teams. He was 6-11 shots at five-on-five but had just one HDSC against. I think he’s made the team. We’ll see.
- Jason Demers played almost 24 minutes, leading the team in that category. He had two giveaways, three blocked shots and a takeaway. He was 0-3 goals. Speed an issue? He has veteran savvy, you’d like to find room if he still has something to give.
- Markus Niemelainen had six hits, a blocked shot, took four hits and was 0-3 goals (Demers partner) on the night. This was another night (second time in preseason) where the coaching staff deployed him against top lines.
- Phil Kemp sent a rocket wide late in what would have been a sure goal if it hit the net. He had two takeaways, a giveaway, went 0-1 goals (1-3 HDSC) at five-on-five. There were three defenders on the ice when the first goal went in, Kemp the outsider so I think it was bad luck (but I didn’t tape the game).
- Dmitri Samorukov played 14:02, was exposed a couple of times but he made some good decisions and showed good wheels. He didn’t do much with the puck, took a penalty, it was a pretty weak call but he did have his stick in a guilty spot. He was 0-0 goals. Neither hurt no advanced his cause.
- Men who advanced the cause: Pickard, Niemelainen because he played some very tough minutes.
- Ryan McLeod had a great night, and Dylan Holloway was a solid partner on sorties. Warren Foegele didn’t fit the line at all, that was a big issue for me with this line. Both McLeod and Holloway had promising sorties but Foegele wasn’t able to hang with their skill. I don’t think Foegele will play above the third line.
- Tyler Benson must lead the team in HDSC, he got another one, but he isn’t cashing these chances. I like his aggression but sooner or later he needs to score a goal. Brad Malone did a good job defensviely but didn’t move the needle on offense. Jake Virtanen made a nice back check into a turnover and then sent a dart to the Flames blue line for a chance. He didn’t do enough of that, but he did show he can do it. I think he gets one more game.
- Mattias Janmark had three shots on goal and at least one should have been a strong HDSC, but he hasn’t been enough of a threat this fall. That needs to change, but you always assume veterans will turn it around. Devin Shore had about the same night as Brad Malone. Derek Ryan had two takeaways and was gold in the dot, and for my money has the most skill on this line, and I think he would have had offensive success with more skill on his line.
- Matvey Petrov impressed, he had a great early chance that earned a power play and landed two shots and a takeaway. Luke Esposito was like another tier on the Malone-Shore train, several good things that help suppress but not much going offensviely. Greg McKegg rarely plays. I don’t think we’ve had a good look at him. He was the last player to hit the ice and always seems to be shuffled down. Does he need to sharpen his skates every four shifts? He had 16 shifts in this game. Petrov had 18 and he’s a kid!
- Men who advanced the cause: Tyler Benson and Matvey Petrov, but I don’t think either makes the opening night roster.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Expect a stronger roster tomorrow night, and cuts as soon as this morning.
Just took my Sardinian friend to his first ever hockey game.
Habs blew it late. Caufield and Gallagher carried a pretty weak roster against another weak Jets team. Meaningless preseason game.
Giovanni didn’t mind one bit. He had a blast. Bell Centre is great. Hockey is amazing.
That sounds amazing. It’s a great building and great city.
Happy for you and your friend.
Would like to see the Coach put Hyman/Nuge as a duo with a RW as the shut down things line.
Then build out the top 6 from there, this is truly a unicorn plethora of forwards.
Kane/McDavid/JP
Holloway/Draisaitl/Yamamoto
Hyman/Nuge/Foegele
Janmark/McLeod
The coach loves McLeod, his usage will be all over. A Hyman/Nuge combo if they can put together a effective top 6 will keep the troops much fresher longer. Everyone would look better 17-21 mins a night, instead of 8 or 28 imo.
Nurse/Ceci
Kulak/Bouchard
Broberg/Barrie
Murray
Voodoo
Shaman
I don’t know why but Hyman was far from a shut-down role type player last season and he ended up 47/54 in goals, -7 at 5 on 5.
I like those lines, though I’d switch Foegs/McLeod. Slide Hyman to RW.
I also appreciate the Nuge-Hyman duo.
Got my copy of On the Clock today. Looks good, LT!
Mine is in the mail, no spOilers!
Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl
I call this line “The Situation”. I believe Woodcroft will use it to great effect during the regular season.
As JP remarks below, it enables Woody to run Nuge at 2C / Clan McLeod at 3C.
“The Situation” may not be the optimal deployment for the team in general, but especially on home ice, it provides otherworldly entertainment in the form of an endless bombardment on the opposing goal.
Turns RW from a position of weakness into a position of strength, no?
I prefer:
Drai – McDavid – Yamamoto
Kane – Nuge – Hyman
Foegele – McLeod – Puljujarvi
I call it the “Fuck you, Matthews. We are taking your Rocket Richard.” 😀
First non junior cuts announced, with Tullio and Fanti the guys with NHL pacts and Kaldis, Kambeitz, Kielb, and Engaras guys with AHL pacts cut.
None of these guys got any pre season games aside from the half game that Fanti got. A little surprised he was cut before Rodrigue.
I assume that Tullio didn’t get any games because he was rehabbing from injury.
Too bad the other 4 never got games, must suck to see other guys on AHL only deals get games and stick around. I really liked Engaras in Penticton and thought Kambeitz was one of the better AHL guys too.
I wonder if this means guys like Peters and Esposito will get another game, and/or if they’re under any consideration for a spot on the 50 man list, now or mid season?
By my count, the only guys left without NHL contracts:
AHL
Esposito
Peter’s
Bailey (no games yet)
Tryout
Demers
JV
Interested to see if any of the AHL guys outlast anymore guys on NHL deals (and how long the tryouts last).
I know JV has looked invisible I think he’s trying to catch up with the speed of the NHL. I still believe he gets a league minimum contract and will be deployed in games where grit is needed. We lost Archie and Kassian who’s physicality was needed at certain times in the season. If Jake doesn’t get a contract I think will see a steady diet of Malone.
The Leafs look at deploying Mitch Marner on D.
https://www.nhl.com/news/maple-leafs-could-use-marner-as-defenseman/c-335912298
So putting a pp unit on the ice when playing catch-up
Truly riveting development
The reverse Burns.
Do you think such a move could be successful?
Marner is an elite defensive forward so it would seem to have great potential.
There is a USHL team, the Chicago Steel IIRC, who have adopted a 4F 1D system so this is much the same.
In reality, this could look a lot like how Colorado plays with Makar on the ice.
It allows teams to have another high impact offensive player on the ice…in Toronto’s case…Nylander.
As the defensive part of the game evolves I wouldn’t be surprised to see more teams try this.
Makar is an elite defender, and his backward skating and rush defence are exceptional. Being a good defensive forward has little carry over to playing defence IMO, not really the same skill set (esp. a defensive winger). Ever notice how easily PK forwards walk a defending PP forward on a short handed rush? Maintaining an appropriate gap and defending the rush is not trivial. Marner may be amazing, but I’d be skeptical. Still, much like pulling the goalie if it increases your chances of getting a goal when down it might be worth it.
Scotty Bowman had Gainey play defense for Montreal and Federov play defense for Detroit (another innovate move by the undisputed best coach of all time). In both cases, it was primarily due to injuries on their teams. Gainey and Federov, were not only elite defensive forwards, they were also, at a minimum, among the top 3 skaters of their eras. Marner, finishing between 10th and 33rd in Selke voting (mostly Toronto reporters I’d bet) over the last 4 seasons, while clearly very very good defensively, has not established himself as an elite defensive forward in the same category as Gainey (they basically created the Selke award for him) nor Federov (2 wins and top 5 for 5 years in a row) in this regard. Marner is also not in the same category of skating as Gainey and Federov.
However, it sounds like Keefe would only be using Marner on defense situationally when the team is down a goal or two and need to press for offense (but perhaps too early to pull the goalie) as opposed to having him play long stretches back there. Probably wouldn’t do it if the line match up was against players like McDavid, MacKinnon or Panarin or other elite fast opponents, but with last change it could potentially spark things when the opponent is playing to hold a lead and trying to stifle everything. And in Toronto’s case, after O’Reilly, they don’t have much else in the way of really good offensive defenseman who can help press that much when offense is needed (Giordano is getting older and slower).
I like RNH a lot and was happy with his contract, but can we justify paying a 3LW $5.15 million? Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a legitimate top-six forward–I think he could play 2C, or even 1LW, on a team with a good forward corps–but if that’s not how he’s deployed on this team, and he isn’t the 3C (so as to bring himself within LT’s twelve critical players)…is that good resource allocation?
(I want the answer to be yes, so that I can continue liking the contract, because if I like the player I always want to like the contact too. So…convince me, please.)
I dont think an optimal lineup has Nuge at 3LW but incase it did happen he still plays both special teams quite well and is cover to play 1-2LW and 2C. If Nuge is playing third line winger that means you have value deals in Holloway/Mcleod playing 3C or 2LW so youre technically “underspending” there
First, I don’t believe Nuge has ever played a game at 3LW to this point. And while Stauffer has him listed there, apparently Nugent-Bowman had him at 3C with McLeod at 3LW (putting him among LTs 12 (13) critical players).
But more directly to your question, IMO if Nuge continues to play 18-20 minutes a game, with prominent roles on both special teams (as he has), and continues to score 50+ points a season (as he has), then his deal remains good value no matter where he lines up at 5v5.
Yeah, if he could manage 50 points in a season, that would assuage some of my concerns, for sure.
Rhetorical question? You know it isn’t since we both heard Holland say $3M for Puljujarvi to play ‘bottom six’ wasn’t possible.
I like Nuge as well – and his contract at the time – but where to play him if McLeod has taken his 3C spot after he lost 1C and 2C to McDavid and Draisaitl is problematic. And I don’t even like him playing wing.
He has become the forward equivalent of Barrie – 1st PP but playing below his cap hit at 5 on 5 and I don’t know how many of those players a team can afford.
You know it’s interesting. It used to be a hot topic, but no one talks about Draisaitl on the wing any more.
Last season finished that way. I know it was borne of necessity, but it went pretty well for everyone involved (final 4 appearance, McDavid/Draisaitl went supernova, Nuge line scored well).
I wonder if we see more of that this year than anyone is expecting. It would help balance the leftorium on the wing, and it would solve the Nuge a 3LW ‘problem’. I’d be very surprised if it were a full time thing, but it could well be something in Woodcroft’s arsenal that’s used regularly, like all the other Oiler coaches before him.
I agree. Drai on 97s wing isn’t the problem it used to be. We didn’t used to have the depth to support it. It put all our eggs in a basket and if they got shut down, there wasn’t any other scoring.
But with our current depth there absolutely could be enough scoring.
Kane-Nuge-Hyman would be an incredible threat to score.
Foegele-Mcleod-Puljujarvi might not be that much of a threat to score, but they’d spend the whole shift in the offensive zone. But maybe they all end the season as 15 goal men.
(Puljujarvi and yams can swap spots as needed)
Yeah there is no doubt that there is a lot of different ways this can go.
Kane – McDavid – Draisaitl – fear instilling
Hyman – Nuge – Puljujarvi – easily wins goal share
Holloway – McLeod – Yamamoto – speed and forechecking demons
Janmark, Ryan and Malone? Don’t know yet. Foegele looking more and more like odd man out.
Yup, many different options that look like they should work.
And yes, Foegele doesn’t sound like he’s making a strong case for himself in camp.
I’m definitely ok with Draisaitl on McDavid’s wing.
The Oiler would still have a good second line, and the first line will throttle other teams within an inch of their lives!
3C who can move up, is versatile, and plays both special teams, absolutely, especially with the rising cap.
3LW who can’t get it done even strength points-wise to be effective in top 6 stints, probably not.
Good luck at Audrey’s tonight LT!
I only saw the first half, but I thought Kemp looked better than he did in the rookie tourney. I think players of his ilk often look better in more structured games
Thumbs up if you think Holland makes a trade before the season starts.
Thumbs down if you think Holland makes no trade before the start of the season.
Would Foegele get claimed on waivers (I know this would not likely save much cap space I am just curious about his perceived value)?
If he was plucked off waivers, it would represent a massive cap benefit. His entire $2.75 million deal would move to his new team, freeing the way to be cap compliant.
Right. Sorry, my comment was not very clear. If he was waived and cleared waivers, it would not provide much cap relief.
Ah sorry. Edmonton would save $1.125 million, so Foegele would cost about $1.6 on the cap iirc.
I have to admit, I’m pretty surprised that so many are in favor of a 21-man roster plus limited ability to replace guys in the event of injury.
Am I allowed to joke that for a ‘math blog’ the insertion of dollar signs before the numbers seems to cause some difficulties amongst certain participants? 😎
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
Oilers Group 1 today:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
RNH-McLeod-Foegele
Janmark-Shore-Ryan
Holloway-Malone-[REDACTED]
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Niemelainen-Demers
Murray-Samorukov
Campbell
Skinner
Hard to know how much to read into this. Does this mean the plan doesn’t include Holloway at this point? Foegele on RW might be a tell that he’s on the way out and someone cheaper is coming in?
Holloway is the odd man out until someone on that 4th line disqualifies himself.
Foegele with Holloway and McLeod is too slow. Foegele with RNH and McLeod might work and I think that is worth a try until Holloway has seen a few NHL sorties.
I like all of this as a lineup. Everyone is slotted well but not perfectly because we can’t know perfect at this point. Nobody seems in a position to fail and there is competition nibbling everywhere.
Stupid two more weeks of camp lets get this show started!
I like the lineup too, but it doesn’t fit under the cap. That 4th line is way too expensive.
Can they send down Slater Koekkoek to save cap?
It doesn’t save cap, he isn’t making enough.
No. Koekkoek is of no consequence to the cap whether he goes down or remains on LTIR.
IIRC, Foegele played more at RW than LW in his final season with the Canes. I think Foegele at RW is more likely a function of very strong LW depth and medium RW depth.
Not necessarily. Foegele played a lot more RW than LW in Carolina, maybe they’re just moving him over because it’s logical.
Edit: I see Uncle Norris got in before me. 😉
If you look at DNB’s list on twitter everything is exactly the same except he lists Nuge at centre and McLeod on wing and this isn’t the first time I have seen this discrepancy. If I had to bet I would bet that it is DNB sitting in the stands at practice rather than Stauffer.
May mean nothing but it keeps popping up.
https://twitter.com/DNBsports/status/1575540223823708160
My biggest disappoint this off-season is Mckegg hasn’t worn number 69 yet.
“There were three defenders on the ice when the first goal went in, Kemp the outsider so I think it was bad luck (but I didn’t tape the game).”
The goal was scored 3 seconds after Kemp emerged from the penalty box. So in a sense he was responsible, though not directly involved in the scoring sequence.
Guilty, but not responsible.
Ah. McCurdy you are a wonder.
Even some of the locks for opening night had difficulty, led by Mattias Janmark, who looks to have been bitten by the “I will never score again” bug that attacked Tobias Rieder in 2018-19.
I always think of Eric Belanger, or Ryan Spooner. 🤣
8 preseason games is grotesque.
An attempt to get more revenue?
seems excessive.
One thing KH has quietly done well is keep the # of contracts low (was it Tambo who was always pushed up at 50?), so there’s room to sign the PTOs. Big Q is would either take a 2 way and report to the Bake if/when they get cut. You’d think Jake would if he wants any shot back in the show, JD might choose Europe, or pickle ball.
I don’t know if it’s hardware or software, but watching Foegele from last season, while he’s big and moves well, he has slow hands which limits him to 3rd line level.
Pickleball Rocks .
Foegele needs a montage sequence with Adam Oates.
Petrov back to junior, per Tony Brar.
I would argue that Dmitri samorukov aquitted himself well.
I would like to see him get some reps with a solid partner such as ceci, bouchard, or barrie.
So far he has played his off side and with a ahl partner.
I thought his mobility showed itself well, his board work was solid, his direct line speed is very solid on the back check.
Maybe they are trying to make sure he slips through waivers.
1) Yes, the was quite the “meh” performance by pretty much all the skaters last night but that is a tough spot for many players. I mean, Murray/Barrie were the top pair and were facing the Huburdeau and Kadri lines but, in the regular season, they would be getting softer minutes and, when matched against top lines, would have better forward help, right? I think they actually did well considering. Nimeo was facing tough minutes and with 34-year old regressing veteran and little NHL forward support – that’s not a position he’d be in very often in the NHL this season.
Similar for the likes of McLeod and Foegele, facing the the top d-pairing of the opposition.
2) At the same time, the tweeners and bubble players need to find a way to make an impact – I mean, the flames fourth line did all night long and none of them are even NHL options this season.
3) I agree that Barrie was, by far, the best d-man for the team and, well, he should have been.
4) Sure, if Demers is willing to ride the buses in Bakersfield and be available at the 9D (give or take), sure, but he’s 34 and those injuries have caught up with him. He’s lost steps and they aren’t coming back. He’s not top 7D in the NHL any longer (from my eye).
5) I thought Samorukov showed well last night in a tough match-ups game – better than Niemo (and Niemo had possibly jumped Samorukov earlier in camp). 0-0 goals in the game, with Kemp, is good!
6) I agree with Benson LT and I said it after game two – at some point, being in the scoring chances is not enough – 0-0-0 on the scorecard isn’t going to get him a LW job on this team no matter how many chances he’s around, right? Come on man – lets cash!
7) That’s two games for Greg McKegg and I can’t say I remember anything he did……
8) I liked Petrov’s game. I wonder if he’s going to get send to the Condors’ camp, maybe even a game or two, prior to ultimate assignment back to North Bay?
Ooop, check that, Petrov assigned to North Bay!
Didn’t Samaroo & Kemp mostly play against the Flames 4th line, who, you say, made an impact even though none of them are even NHL options? Nemo faced much stiffer completion while partnered with Demers, the 34-year-old, whose injuries have caught up with him?
Dammit!
Sammy is like Benson … has decent tools, and looks like he could do more, but no one tool of his is outstanding enough to make an positive impact to an NHL roster.
Niemelainen has already passed him.
I’m not overly worried about losing Sammy on waivers, just like I wasn’t worried about losing Benson in the expansion draft.
Dammit!
“Does he need to sharpen his skates every four shits. “
This is not the weirdest player superstition I have heard of, but it’s up there.
“Does he need to sharpen his skates every four sh*ts.”
McKegg: “Yeah, make them nice and sharp (grunts). And can you pass me a roll of toilet paper, please? I ran out again.”
Great minds think a like.
Right?