Early in last night’s game, Edmonton Oilers goalie Jack Campbell was unable to corral a bouncing puck and the Nashville Predators jumped to a quick lead. The home team’s best players proceeded to rain down blows on the visitors, and at the end of one period it was 4-1 and that was all she wrote. The Nashville cats didn’t give in and made a game of it later on but there’s just too much skill in these Oilers for many teams. Nashville, like Calgary, brings toughness and intimidation. Edmonton wins those games more often now than two years ago.
NEW for @TheAthleticNHL How will the Oilers make room for Dylan Holloway? He showed well again last night in a depth role, and there's a price to pay in sending him down. His time is now. https://t.co/qEscs21utJ
At home to: NAS, NJD, DAL (Expected 2-1-0 ) (Actual 1-0-0)
On the road to: WAS, TBY, CAR, FLA (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: LAK, VEG (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected (1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: FLA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: CHI (Expected (1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
November expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
Actual November results: 1-0-0, 2 points in 1 game
October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
Oilers in 2022-23: 7-3-0, 14 points in 10 games
The gales of November have obliterated this franchise many times, but the first steps into the month were explosive and awesome. Campbell needs to be sharper in net and the PK is so, so bad, but Edmonton is here and looking good.
FIRST 10 GAMES
This year’s model is similar to last year’s, if the team can keep it together in November (9-4-0 a year ago), should be able to separate from last year’s team in December (3-7-1 under Tippett last season) and into January. I think it’s been a good start for the team.
SUMMARY
Jack Campbell is struggling, but winning games. Five wins and an .881 save percentage in seven games is a strange line, and regression will have its say. His even-strength SP (.907) isn’t far from his .915 a year ago, but it’s pretty clear there’s some work to do. The PK stinks but he isn’t helping. First goal came on a deflection, Edmonton needs him to make that save at that time in the game.
Darnell Nurse had an assist, drew a penalty, three hits and two blocked shots. High event at five-on-five on the night (2-2), two giveaways, he made several effective defensive plays.
Cody Ceci had two shots, three hits and a blocked shot. High event (Nurse-Ceci were up against the Duchene line and Josi much of the night) but he’s effective in a defensive role. I don’t know what he could have done differently on the first Nashville goal.
Markus Niemelainen had four shots (!!), three hits, two GV and a blocked shot. He drew two penalties and took a hit six times. Oilers were 10-3 shots and 1-0 goals at five-on-five with the big man on the ice. He’s settling in and also having an impact with his hits. If he can do that, while staying in position defensively, Niemelainen will solve some problems for the team. I disagree a player has to fight after a big hit, silly hockey rule No. 4000.
Tyson Barrie had an assist, took a penalty and had a rocking chair evening while playing 10 minutes five-on-five with the McDavid line. The Corgis were happy when he was on the ice last night. Great pass to Derek Ryan for his marker.
Brett Kulak took a penalty, had a takeaway and a giveaway. He is settling in now, I felt he was a touch lucky in the early games but the quality is shining through now. Owns an 80 percent goal share at five-on-five, and is more physical than I thought he was last season. Takes time to really know a new arrival.
Evan Bouchard had an assist, two takeaways and played an effective game. He’s such a great passer that plays can develop out of almost nothing in the wink of an eye. No shots on goal, despite having plenty of chances. One especially promising sortie to the high slot was dashed by a Preds stick. He’s 0-5-5 after 10 games.
Evander Kane scored three goals and is now 10, 5-6-11 for the season. He’s a big, skilled man, and the two early goals reflected how much he brings to the game offensively. On pace for 40 goals, something I predicted here.
Leon Draisaitl’s cherry backhand to Kane belongs in the Louvre, such a fantastic display of power and finesse. Just a gorgeous goal. 5-16-21 for the season after 10 games. 1-4-5 last night. Leon and McDavid centreing two lines is like waiting for the Beatles and Stones to exceed each other with each new album. It’s just impossible for opponents when things are clicking.
Kailer Yamamoto picked up an assist, he’s 0-3-3 after nine games. To my eye he’s making a little more progress every game, these eyes don’t see as much as they used to and I do cheer for the young wingers on this team. I don’t believe he’s in danger of losing his job, but Holloway is pushing now.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one assist on a rare quiet night, he is 5-7-12 after 10 and projects for 30-56-96 on the year. Like Hyman, he did good things but wasn’t rewarded. On the Forberg goal, he was beaten twice, by deke and pass, both quality. Nuge doesn’t get outfoxed often, that’s why he’s the Nuge.
Connor McDavid scored 2-2-4 on eight shots and is now 12-12-24 after 10. That projects to 96-96-192. Music! He’s shooting more now, but there’s also a few new moves in his arsenal. When the defensemen is behind him he’ll fake one way and go hard the other, and that move has been perfected. Also his bull rush sorties have more control to them now, and he is far more physical than he was two years ago. He’s borderline or more at times. Love it!!
Zach Hyman had NINE HDSC!! Incredible. Just one assist, he now has 6-6-12 for the season.
Warren Foegele (9, 0-1-1) had one hit, two takeaways and two blocked shots. He was close on a couple of plays, NST had him goose eggs in the offensive zone.
Ryan McLeod had a shot, a blocked shot and some big faceoff wins. HDSC.
Jesse Puljujarvi had two shots, four hits and a 5-for-fighting but I think he was guilty of being a big man who hit a guy and was left with some frustrated opponents. Had a nice look late.
Devin Shore was all over the ice, one of his better games to my eye. Had an assist and several puck retrievals in the offensive end.
Dylan Holloway gets better every night. Three hits, good defensive acumen and an epic solo march down the ice on the right side that ended with Holloway passing to Yamamoto in front of the net. Combination of skill and determination.
Derek Ryan scored a goal, two shots, two HDSC. That’s a fantastic performance for a fourth-line player.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day on TSN 1260, 10-2. Guests include Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal and Chris Johnston, TSN Insider. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Bourgault with a clear breakaway from center, little quick stick deke, goes 5-hole – stopped – damn.
OriginalPouzar
November 2, 2022 9:38 pm
Condors relentless int he off offensive zone – Peters, of all players, down low, comes up from behind the net – now I think he lost the puck trying to do a wrap but it went cross-crease to Janmark who buries it in to the yawing cage.
Kemps with the 2nd assist, I believe his second of the gae.
No goals in 40 minutes and now 4 in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd 3-1 Condors.
OriginalPouzar
November 2, 2022 9:35 pm
Bourgault takes the pass at center, little dish to Malone for the zone entry, button hook and back to Kesselring who sifts home his 5th of the season (about a minute after SD tied it up).
Kostin with the screen.
Bag of Pucks
November 2, 2022 9:32 pm
2nd no hitter in World Series history. First combined no no. Impressive.
OriginalPouzar
November 2, 2022 9:30 pm
Condors fire 34 shots through 2 periods but can’t cash. Early in the 3rd, first minutes, both Kemp and then Philp do amazing work at the offensive blue to keep the puck in after Janmark is pan-packed from behind on the side boards, Philp with a range, walks to near top of circles and the Condors 35th shot is Philps first pro goal.
Tarkus
November 2, 2022 8:48 pm
Summarizing!
Chiasson’s struggles continue as he was held off the scoresheet with only 2 SOG in a 6-3 Wheaties loss.
Munny 2.0
November 2, 2022 8:44 pm
At a 73.3% kill rate, the Oiler PK is presently 26th in the League.
Different ways we could look at that. League combined average. Net difference to a median or mean. Or net ranking from the median. Probably many others, but I think in all ways we’re better than league average.
But the area to improve is glaring yes. Samples are still small too. 60:42 on the PK and 50:46 on the PP. We’re 2-9 GF-GA on PK and 11-1 on PP. A net positive there too.
Yeah, goal differential on special teams is probably the most accurate/relevant, though PP% + PK% is the easiest back of the napkin calculation (and just think, no one will say that any more in another 20 yrs).
Special teams +3 in 10 games is solid though, even if it could be better.
We’re blessed to be able to watch the best PP in the league (among the very best ever), so those PP numbers are basically at realistic expectations. A league average PK would make a big difference off that PP baseline.
FWIW, the Oilers have had great special teams the 3 years prior to this one. #1 PP (27.6%) and #7(tied) PK (81.8%). In real numbers that’s +54 goals in 209 games.
That’s actually only +2.6 goals per 10 games (with #1 and #7 special teams), so maybe we shouldn’t complain at all about the current +3 start.. (though the PK will probably improve, while the PP cools down a shade).
I agree. I said in a comment somewhere below that the PK is normally a strength. I think we’ll see it come around. I don’t think it will be 26th at the end of the year and it wouldn’t take much success to move the numbers materially, considering the sample size it’s joining..
Munny 2.0
November 2, 2022 8:26 pm
ENer for Evereett pretty much seals it. I only caught the 3rd and it was a pretty ragged period by the Wheaties. Danielson was noticeable and looks likely to go in the 1st round. No points for Chiasson that period but played his usual cerebral game.
OriginalPouzar
November 2, 2022 8:12 pm
Savoie getting a chance to play with Griffith and McKegg.
Lavoie with Esposito and McPhee – I’ve only seen a few shifts and he’s looked mobile and tenacious on the forecheck (good sights as that’s not been his game).
To be clear, he didn’t get “dinged” tonight, not dressed.
Munny 2.0
November 2, 2022 7:57 pm
Good Pk work on that shift by Chiasson.
Bag of Pucks
November 2, 2022 7:46 pm
A sure sign I’m getting old. I’m rooting for the Managers more than the players in the World Series!
Thomson, first Canadian Manager in the Series vs Dusty Baker who’s never won a title as a Manager in his storied career. Kinda leaning towards Dusty.
JimmyV1965
November 2, 2022 6:49 pm
I’ve gained a much greater appreciation for the Oilers PP, after watching what the Flyers did in four attempts during the second period tonight. Our team is blessed with tremendous skill and play making ability. Not so much Philadelphia.
Bag of Pucks
November 2, 2022 6:05 pm
One thing we have to credit Woodcroft with imo is how much more relaxed the team seems offensively under him than it did under Tippett, Hitchcock, McLellan.
By my eye, they are a team that is being encouraged to think offense first and while it may look ugly when they leak shots against on the counterattack, it’s paying dividends in terms of their patience and creativity with the puck. One example of this is how often the D pinch under Woodcroft. Another is how often Fs crisscross in the O zone.
HCs like Cooper and Gallant and Sullivan are rare imo because they don’t sacrifice offensive creativity for the sake of constant defensive responsibility. Their teams are much more freewheeling in the offensive zone without a slavish devotion to positional discipline. They’re not trading chances as much as they are maximizing their quality chances for while mitigating their quality chances against.
Early days still but Woodcroft seems cut from this same cloth and that is an excellent fit for a team whose greatest strengths are on the attack.
Ive long said their cycle game was largely in effective which compounded one and done
It seems better. The key is setting up guys sneaking open close enough in or D sneaking down, as opposed to being in too close to finish, constant wrap arounds and trying to bang pucks through pads
Cross seam and low high plays work the best
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
November 2, 2022 5:08 pm
Campbell has given up 4+ goals 4 times this season.
The defence needs to be better, but Campbell has definitely been part of the problem.
I am optimistic that things will improve as communication with his new team improves.
Now the task is to prove he isn’t a sub -.900 goalie.
John Chambers
November 2, 2022 2:59 pm
Re: Erik Karlsson
If I’m Mike Grier, I’m probably looking to leverage Karlsson’s heater to extract a decent return for his contract that runs 4 seasons after this one. The Sharks are already bad, but they need to get worse before they can get better.
I’m not saying the Oilers should be interested, but I am saying the player could likely be traded for with San Jose retaining salary.
HH – He has a full no movement as well doesn’t he? Another 4 years is a while to run on a $11.5 mill contract so like you say unless he’s going through multiple teams it’s probably a non starter. On top of that they already have $2.72 mill retained for Burns until the end of the 24-25 season, plus Martin Jones buyout: 2.4m, 2.9.m, 1.67m, 1.67m, 1.67m until the end of 26-27 season.
If I’m the Sharks I’d hold on to him though, they don’t have much else that’s all that elite on the back end and he’s at least exciting for their fans to watch.
and I am betting hairball was telling us how great those contracts were when they were signed….. The missing link, stanley on it’s way….. Oilers fucked cause the sharks are so great.
Karlsson to the Oilers is, of course, totally crazy.
He’s another undersized RD who isn’t great defensively. He also injury prone, makes $11.5M, and would be the Oilers 2nd oldest player (though only 32).
At the same time, trading for Erik Karlsson would also be a Ken Holland type move (adding an aging, elite player that many think is past due).
Interesting to think about if nothing else.
How could it work? At 50% retained ($5.75M), Barrie and a ~$3M forward would need to go the other way. Karlsson for those two would/should actually open up enough cap space to ADD an extra player to the Oilers roster (they’d have enough cap for a 22 man roster instead of the current 21).
His 117th birthday will be on Saturday, so timely post! 🥳🥳
Of note, immediately after retiring he became the Bruins Head coach, but for only 2 seasons. The second season he won the Cup and strangely following that season he became the Bruins AHL coach and coached at that level for 6 years.
There are no records for 8 seasons and then in 1950 he started coaching at Harvard, where he remained for 21 years as the Head Coach.
LT will remember it was the first year where the forward pass was allowed, but offsides weren’t invented yet. November 3rd of 1929 featured the first ever NFL game played under floodlights, between the Chicago Cardinals and mighty Providence Steam Roller, who of course were quite the proverbial steam roller and finished with a record of 4-6-2.
Nick Lucas “Tip Toe Through the Tulips” was the top radio hit of the year, sitting atop the US Billboard Charts for 10 weeks. Of course Tiny Tim brought that back as a hit in 1969. He was a Maple Leaf fan I believe and famously took the ice wearing Pat Quinn’s gear – this of course would be Punch Imlach’s final season there I believe as he was fired at the end of that season after getting swept by the Bruins. Which brings us back to LT.
Dino Kambeitz suspended for two games (I didn’t see the hit).
The timing is actually great as I wasn’t sure who was going to come out for Lavoie tonight (McKegg, Kambeitz, Philp…. Esposito).
leadfarmer
November 2, 2022 1:24 pm
Other than first goal I can’t really blame Souppy for the goals, and that’s kind of just bad luck goal.
Rest of them were very high danger goals (goals that goalie can’t get set for such as side to side passes or tipped pucks)
but he has been outplayed by the principal
geowal
November 2, 2022 12:42 pm
I haven’t had time to watch Woodcroft’s post game interviews. After games like this (won, but with some loose play at times) is be fairly positive? Focused on mistakes? Figures they were lucky to win? I thought it was a good win with basically score effects just curious what his usual attitude is.
Klam
November 2, 2022 12:27 pm
Nuge doesn’t get outfoxed often, that’s why he’s the Nuge.
Need a T-shirt. “What does the Nuge say?l”
€√¥£€^$
November 2, 2022 12:26 pm
Just a reminder, last season after 15 games Leon had 17 goals and 33 points.
Lets give Connor 25 games to see where is at before we deem the 50 goals in 39 games record to be at risk, shall we?
Only five players — Maurice Richard, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky (three times), Mario Lemieux and Brett Hull (twice) — scored 50 goals within their team’s first 50 games, while a few others (Lemieux, Kurri, Mogilny, Neely) netted 50 in 50 or fewer games played.
Such good perspective to maintain. I’d be even more cautious and set my initial hopes at 50 in 82 and go from there.
Leon barely passed 50/82 last year despite a similar early heater. If Connor can beat Matthews’ 60 from last year and get his regular number of assists, I’d be ecstatic.
50 in 50 is pretty unrealistic, even for Connor. Leon rightly told everyone to hold their horses for himself early last year when people started raising the possibility.
Another solo effort tonight, this time it’s Jake Chiasson in the spotlight. A recent swoon–one point in his last 8 GP–has displaced him from tops on his team in points, though he trails (three teammates) by only one. Can he make like Schaefer did last night and break out of a slump with gusto? All will be revealed once the puck drops at 6 p.m. Falun time.
The judges would have also accepted, “I’ve Falun and I can’t get up!”.
Either way, I don’t think Jimmy Falun would approve.
Munny 2.0
November 2, 2022 10:39 am
I can’t agree with the first goal being on Campbell.
First shift of the game and the play starts with a waived off icing and all three Oiler forwards are below the Predator circles. Like WTF. But Kane is cruising south and has a chance to make a play on the left boards and rather than taking the man, fly-by tries to steal the puck, cheating for offense. Drai does sorta get back into the play but is too far behind to be effective and allow the D to tighten gaps and thus cut the sortie off at the blue line.
The puck then is DOUBLE deflected, off Nurse’s skate and then Ceci’s skate, deking Campbell out of his shorts (who has to cover the left post to defend against the intended recipient and was sliding in that direction) and the puck bounces straight to an unchecked Ekholm at the right side of the crease. Yamamoto’s man.
If you want Soupy to have that one, then expect a lot of sharp-angled shots to squeeze-in on near side posts.
Goal against number one is on the forwards. All of them… but especially Yams. cheating for O on the first shift. How many times do we have to see this happen?
And I can’t put either of the deflection goals on the Soupcan either. Both were highly skilled plays. You hope he gets one of those, but that probably doesn’t happen in many universes if we Monte Carlo the outcomes.
Which leaves the one-timer by Forsberg. Again, huge defensive breakdown, BUT reading the cross-seam one-timer play is Campbell’s specialty. No traffic either. Campbell gets a piece of the shot with his blocker and I am of the school that if you are a wide receiver and get a hand on the ball, it was catchable. Same for goalies and saves.
That said, plenty of people to blame on that play as well. Josi was key to breaking down our DZone cover on three goals. What a player.
PK has to be better. And if we want Soupy’s save percentage to improve… we’d better start playing better defence.
And that concerns me… when the team is rewarded for some poor play. Don’t get me wrong we could’ve blown the Preds out of the barn last night, but not every team is as weak as the Preds. Can’t let bad habits settle in.
Agree with the analysis… except the old sawhorse that a bigger goalie (eg. Skinner, Rinne, Vassy) probably gets in the way of 1-2 of those shots by virtue of size.
That being said, Saros was a Vezina finalist last year and Soup won.
Didn’t see it that way at all. The puck wasn’t moving that fast and the deflection was from a ways out. I expect an NHL goalie to be able to freeze that puck, or at least direct the rebound to the corner. Campbell punted a soft rebound right to Eckholm, who was Draisaitls man.
I think every goal against starts with multiple breakdowns elsewhere on the ice, but there are pucks that need to be stopped.
I 100% agree that the proper play was to freeze the puck or punt it far/wide. You can’t tee a puck up directly to your own backdoor. I don’t think it’s quite as bad a goal as it might seem at first glance, considering it changed angle on Campbell and bobbled, but I think Mike Smith bats that puck halfway down highway 2.
Not uphill, in a cold month it would be at a standstill, whereas in a hot month it would be losing ground and going backwards. I guess you can argue that going backwards is at least moving and would be faster. Are there any lawyers or philosophers that can help with this?
Hard to be negative after a game like that. Let me try:
Nashville’s an NHL team, but not an especially good one. If we’re a Cup contender, we should dispatch them with relative ease (as we did).
While we have five forwards scoring at a furious rate, three of them (Hyman, Nuge, and especially McDavid) are riding SH% heaters, and the other two are right around their career averages. McDavid will probably set career highs in goals and points if he stays healthy, but he’s going to slow down markedly from his current 168 point page.
After those five, our top-scoring forwards have…three points each. And one of those forwards is shooting 43%. Secondary scoring remains an issue.
The PK.
Our notional starter is not looking good, though I agree that it’s early days. But if he falters, our eggs are all in a rookie basket, which can’t feel good no matter how good early returns are.
A hard fought but deserved win tomorrow will leave me feeling a lot more positive than yesterday’s cakewalk.
Secondary scoring isn’t an issue, tertiary scoring is. But very few teams have much of that and Edmonton’s 3rd line is getting it’s chances, so I don’t think it’s an issue anyhow.
I guess it’s a question of where the line is between secondary and tertiary scoring. Your sixth leading forward is theoretically a top-sixer, and I don’t think many people would call that tertiary, but that’s a definitional debate. The point is that we need Yamamoto to score beyond a 30-point clip, and Puljujarvi and Foegele to score beyond an eight point clip. And I’m pretty confident that all three of them will, just as I’m pretty confident that McDavid won’t continue to score at a 168-point clip and RNH won’t continue to score at a 98-point clip (hell, I’d be satisfied if he hit fifty for once), but it’s a question of by how much.
I’m not down on this team; it’s the best team we’ve had since 1990. It’s just that from what I’ve seen so far this season, I have them in the second tier of teams–the one that’s a lock to make the playoffs, should win at least one series, and could catch fire and take it all–rather than the one that’s on everybody’s list of Cup favourites.
(Of course, that 1990 team was probably also in that secondary tier, so…)
(Edit: Just checked, and the 1989-90 Oilers finished the regular season fifth in the league, which was higher than I remembered. So maybe they were considered a Cup contender the whole way through; I’d remembered that win being more of an upset, but I was also eight years old.)
I think it’s a little early to be tiering teams with any sort of confidence.
But I do share your concerns and extend them to defensive play. And PK is normally a strength for this team but has not been this year.
I’m perfectly happy for them not to be the top team in the League at this moment, and happy too they’re not at their seasonal peak (hopefully, yelp), because seasonal play about direction, ie which way their play is headed, and about building consistency.
Like you, I would like to see the Oilers continue to show improvement. I’d especially like to see them limit their mental mistakes. I am far more concerned about those errors than about our netminders.
I agree with a bunch of this except the part about McDavid slowing down markedly. He’s going to post a season that puts him in the GOATs category, something Crosby never got to.
Folks are way way too backward looking on offense. Two expansions and the age out of the best goalies from the 2000/2005 era have ushered in a Brand New World for offense.
The NHL was a sleepy league for 20 years, the game has changed now. NBA scoring records were set decades ago, ditto with total offense and total skill. Along came Lebron, Curry, Westbrook and down they all went. There’s a generational player and then there’s a transcendent player. McDavid is a truly different breed of player. Hockey sense of Gretzky, skill of Lemieux, skating of Orr and the athleticism of all three put together.
This is McDavid and Drai’s first full season where they have an actual complement of NHL players on their wings. The sky is the damn limit here
Don’t sleep on him hitting 150 this season absent an injury. If things break right he’ll take out Yzerman’s mark and land among the Two Giants.
Frankly, I think he’s already the third giant; if he was playing against 1980s defencemen and goaltenders, I fully believe that he’d be pushing 200 with this Oilers lineup. But I think it will be a long, long time before we see anybody score 168 points again, and if you set the over/under on this season at 150, I take the under every time.
Will anyone be really shocked if McDavid gets 168 pts? It’s unlikely for sure, but it’s not some off-the-wall projection. Sure, the primary scorers will likely fall off the pace, but it’s also likely the secondary scorers will pick up the pace.
If you go back 30 years you also have Gretzky 93-94 (130 points), Jagr 95-96 (149 points) and Lemieux 95-96 (161 points) to contend with. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up around Jagr’s number.
1.While we have five forwards scoring at a furious rate, three of them (Hyman, Nuge, and especially McDavid) are riding SH% heaters, and the other two are right around their career averages. McDavid will probably set career highs in goals and points if he stays healthy, but he’s going to slow down markedly from his current 168 point page.
2. After those five, our top-scoring forwards have…three points each. And one of those forwards is shooting 43%. Secondary scoring remains an issue.
I would object to arguing SH% heater for some players, then questioning secondary scoring for who are scoring well below their established levels.
Just checked, and the 1989-90 Oilers finished the regular season fifth in the league, which was higher than I remembered. So maybe they were considered a Cup contender the whole way through
The Oilers are currently tied for 4th in points%..
jtblack
November 2, 2022 10:12 am
Nice to see the Canucks DEAD LAST in the standings …… 🙂
Eh, I would prefer the Flames to languish in mediocrity. Just good enough to make the playoffs, not good enough to go beyond the first round. The type of team that is never bad enough to warrant a tear down/rebuild and can occasionally surprise a true contender, but never reaches anything beyond “win 1 round” status. And if they should trade their prospects and draft choices because “THIS year we have a chance!” then even better.
Honestly, I have trouble working up the hatred for the Flames that I do for the Canucks and Leafs. I want the Flames to be the Flames of the eighties–a good team, and a worthy playoff opponent, but one that usually loses to us.
The Canucks and Leafs, on the other hand, I’m content to see fail as hard as possible.
And the bonus – it’s HH kryptonite.
New Jersey is a very fast team – looking forward to a track meet vs. Oil.
Brantford Boy
November 2, 2022 10:01 am
Personally, I’ve been very hard on Jesse in the past. I’m absolutely loving his game right now. I suspect someone (Coach/Kane) told him to use his frame, and he’s really showing enormous growth this year.
Yes you can see Kane always talking to Jesse in a mentoring way. Besides the obvious Kane has brought a lot of leadership. It strikes me as kinda funny that Kane has taken a fancy to Jesse. I guess in everyday life you see friends in a relationship with someone that you wouldn’t exactly expect.
i can totally see kane and pulju getting along, kane is a big personality, by a lot of accounts jesse is more reserved and opposites often attract. I love that they are good friends as it has seemed in the past that jesse didnt necessarily belong in either of the groups (the mcd/drat/nuge/nurse and now add hyman) or the (mcleod/foegele/yammo/bouchard) group that we often see posting content together.
With kane and niemo to hang with i can see him settling in a bit more.
Cool… I’d assumed it was Kane (or Coach), possibly even Kassian or Keith from last season but didn’t know for sure. Thanks for the confirmation… cheers!
“If” this is all Jesse will be I still make room on the roster for him, just unsure of the salary for this kind of player moving forward. 3M seems high even with the projected cap increase.
Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan
November 2, 2022 10:00 am
Our gracious host makes some comments about Campbell needing to find his game, and how true it is.
Note all this data is from natural statty and reflects all situations with goalies playing over 150 mins.
Shots against.
Campbell- #22 in the league with 32.89 shots against/60 mins
Skinner- #8 in the league with 35.46 shots against/60 mins.
High danger shots against.
Campbell- #52 in the league with 7 high danger shots against/60 mins
Skinner- #30 in the league with 8.47 high danger shots against/60 mins.
Skinner is facing more high danger shots, and more low quality shots.
Campbell- #44 in the league with 881 sv% in 7 GP
Skinner- #1 in the league with 955 sv% in 4 GP
Rush attempts against per 60.
Campbell- 1.47 per 60
Skinner- 2.12 per 60
Skinner has been by far the better goalie so far, I would alternate them 50/50 until Campbell proves he is capable of providing at minimum league average goaltending.
Skinner is facing more shots and is performing better. Skinner has 3 starts and 2 wins. The 4th game he played he had a shutout but it was lost already due to Campbell. Winning percentage of 0.666%, Campbell has 7 starts with 5 wins with a very respectable 0.714% however if you consider the fact the oilers have scored 6 or more goals in 3 of those games it becomes more concerning.
That’s All Situations data you’re quoting. Campbell’s Achilles heel so far has been PK (he’s historically been pretty good on the PK) and if you look at 4v5 numbers you’ll see that Campbell faces more shots, more scoring chances, more high dangers and more expected goals than Skinner. That’s on the skaters, not on the goalie.
There are two aspects of Campbell’s game that I’ve noticed are a clear step down from last year’s starter:
Rebound control
Puckhandling
I know it’s easy to say “The skaters play worse in front of Campbell for some reason”, but it seems a little bit too simple. Could it be that Campbell is giving up juicy secondary opportunities for more scoring chances against, and isn’t as good at playing the puck back to the good guys as Skinner, creating more shots against?
I agree with your take on rebound control for sure.
In terms of puck handling Campbell’s may not be as spectacular as Smith’s could be at times but not as likely to result in a catastrophe either. My sphincter tightening/60 is much lower with Campbell than it ever was with Smith.
Good work pulling/working the numbers on this. It’s good to see it laid out like that. I will agree with Armchair though, the PK needs to come around a bit and we’ll see his numbers climb a tad.
Heck, before the game Draisatl mentioned that the team haven’t been playing as well in front of Campbell as they have in front of Skinner so they know it’s not all on him. (Interestingly Draisatl then immediately lets Ekholm walk in for the chance at the start of the game – we’ll ignore that though).
In terms of intangible elements to the Skinner v Campbell performance that I have no way of ever knowing if they matter or not. Campbell has just joined this team, he’s playing in a new building. Sometimes it takes players a bit to get used to how defences are going to behave in front of them, how the lighting is on the ice versus other buildings etc. No way of knowing if that’s a thing but I think that if it is the case then Campbell is a good enough goalie to swing it round over the next month.
As for usage, I see no issues with the team going pretty much 50/50 over the next few weeks. Keep both goalies rolling and engaged. I’d expect Skinner on Thursday, then Campbell Saturday, then it’s a road trip with a back to back on Monday and Tuesday so both will play regardless.
€√¥£€^$
November 2, 2022 9:50 am
The 5 penalties to 1 gesture that Hynes made to the ref after Nurse’s helmet was ripped off really bugged me. You just knew they would be looking for an excuse to even that count up, at the expense of an actual infraction against the hometown team.
To their credit it didn’t get too silly, despite a couple of obvious muggings that were ignored, but it does speak to a culture of game management that is a stain on the game, IMO.
As far as fairness, this is currently the balance sheet regarding PP/PK chances for the team to date:
39 PP / 43 PK. Last nights PP differential, 6 to 2 for the Oilers is not typical. Generally, as we know, having the 2 best players on the planet over the past 5 years does not result in guaranteed favourable calls, notably the first game of the season (and at home) vs Vancouver the PP opportunities were 8 to 4 for the visitors and that wacky game at Chicago it was 10 to 7 for the Hawks. Typically, there is obviously an intentional effort call an “even” game.
Anyway, just thought I should repost this, because I think it is important and likely “got lost” in the comments a bit when I posted it on the weekend:
First fighting major is in the books but we’re still waiting for the first fight.
Reja
November 2, 2022 9:44 am
Treliving was praised for the trade of the century Flames have the best D in the league blah blah blah.I myself thought it was really chancy to sign Huberdeau to that huge contract Weeger as well without ever having played a game in Calgary’s system or just living in the City of Calgary. Huberdeau had a career year on a loaded team he’s seems to have lost his magic his line is terrible. How soon before the blender comes out for Sutter. If it wasn’t for the other lines they would be below 500.
I’m not making any excuses for the Flames but the season is 10-11 games old. Lots of ‘star’ players aren’t producing like they did last year which is very weird. The Panthers have had a terrible start to their season too.
Having said that, I hope Huberdeau continues to take a poop and has his coach comment on these actions for the rest of the season. That’ll do wonders for that market, the player, and Calgary’s lack of progression in the playoffs.
I agree. If the Flames come back with the exact same roster as last year, they are meh. Career years throughout the roster last season. No injuries. They even got lucky with Covid, if that’s possible. Yet they were dominated in the playoffs by a team with two of its top three players hobbled by severe injurious.
The Flames are better today IMO. The problem with their roster is long-term contracts to aging players, which will bite them in the ass sooner than later.
Why are the Flames better? Johnny bought into Sutter’s candidness and performed with his best season at both ends of the rink. He also made Lindholm a sniper. Huberdeau ego might clash with Sutter’s coaching. I found it very odd that Sutter would be so blunt to say Huberdeau was taking a shit on the post game interview. I take it as Sutter mocking Huberdeau for not being prepared with his bowel movement schedule.
Hmm. You found it odd that Sutter said Huberdeau was taking a dump? That’s actually classic Sutter. If he’s dumping on anyone, it’s the media, not the player.
Huberdeau is not a lesser player than Johnny Hockey and has better numbers over the last four years. They both had career years last year.
I agree with Reja on this one. It came across to me as an insult. Everyone trumpeted Sutter as hilarious and straight up but he could have easily said equipment issue or something else.
Frame it another way – do you think Woodcroft would disclose that about Connor?
He said taking a shit not dump. I’m of Sutter’s age and I truly believe it was a dig at the player. The reason I hated Johnny so much was because he was so good at creating offence and he also made his linemates better. I don’t hate Huberdeau because I don’t even notice him. Huberdeau came from a stocked Panther team that was strictly offence first to a Sutter led team. Huberdeau probably thought he was going to be a Panther for life, no pressure, beautiful life style instead he takes the money knowing full well Sutter is a defence first Coach.
Sutter went out of his way to state that Huberdrau is a great player and he doesn’t care about the pts because he plays a 200 foot game and all he cares about how the game is played and the pts will come.
I think by taking a shit, he meant he was taking a shit, and by taking a shit he meant he had a turtle head poking out.
There’s really no reason to read into it.
Sure but we know that is not what Huburdeau went for – it was injury related.
MrEd
November 2, 2022 9:39 am
Does anyone else think that it was a mistake for Niemo to go for ‘the big hit’ at that stage in the game? The Preds were down and (almost) out- it seemed to wake them up. I do like the exuberance- but seeing our guy turtle afterwards was a little awkward. No he doesn’t HAVE to fight but he has to know what’s coming vs. a team like the Preds if he tries something like that when our team is up by 3. It was a bad look.
I don’t think it would have looked like a big hit if the Nashville player didn’t hit the brakes and lean backward. It left Niemolainen with no resistance and therefore he ended up leaning way too far forward and making it look more like he was head hunting. I think, without the Nashville player trying to stop and lean back it would have been a much more normal mundane hit. I don’t mind if he doesn’t fight and the Oilers get a PP.
Got a PP for his team out of it when the player he was checking chickened out. I saw it as a dumb play by the Nashville player whose teammate turtled first.
Win for Nemo, you don’t have to knuckle up because the other guys ego got hurt. Nashville was only in the game because Campbell was soft, the Oil were the much better team throughout.
And in that time, we watched the Nuge make a pass so finely knit, his Grandma had tears.
Patiently holding on to the puck until the very last minute, and squeezing a puck through Josi’s legs with a tolerance of 0.1inch. Unbelievable play and solid finish by 29.
Someone may have said this may be Nuge’s career season.
I won’t get ahead of myself, but the man is showing real patience with the puck when the play is pass not shoot. He’s had Grade A opportunities too, and they will cash.
Keep it up NUGE!!
Beside’s the boxcores, Yammers was a real hound on the boards, winning puck battles against the boards, and making opponents outbreaks difficult. If you want to win playoff hockey, you gotta win those.
And LT, Jesse is not aware of Rule no 4000. His opponent dropped the mitts, but Jesse would not be baited. Good for him, standing up for himself but keeping his composure.
How was he supposed to disengage? He obviously wasn’t looking to fight.
Where were the refs? I’ve seen the refs get between two willing combatants and not let them fight.
NHL refs are simply the worst in the world. It’s not even close.
That should have been a 4 minute minor for roughing for nashville.
Coilers2021
November 2, 2022 9:38 am
That 1st period…wow. Nashville are a tenacious bunch and the Oil made them look pedestrian with their speed. It was relentless.
Now the PK…ugh…they have to button that down because we all know playoff hockey is a different animal and that will be a quick death for the Oil if they continue that PK trend. That’s my one big worry about the team.
Campbell’s night was not good. I’ve never played goal but by my eye he doesn’t seem “settled”. Almost like a nervousness about him. Is it a system thing? Reading his defenders? I hope someone with knowledge could help the group understand how easy/hard it is for new goalies to adapt to new teams.
The position is 90% about confidence in yourself and knowing what the player with the puck is going to do.
One thing I’ve noticed with Campbell is that it’s pretty easy for a player to freeze him in one spot, then either deke or change angles and he is slow to react. He doesn’t seem to move laterally to his glove side very smoothly.
To my eyes, all his reactions looked very slow last night.
Bling
November 2, 2022 9:33 am
Barrie was better yesterday and Niemo looked pretty good. That third pairing is getting better, but as LT mentioned, that’s with a decent amount of time with 97.
I liked Yamo’s game. It may be that the third guy on that second line doesn’t put up as many points, but that’s okay if the D-game is there, he can hunt for pucks, and his line wins the goal share. There were a couple of occasions yesterday where Yamo won a 50/50 puck and sent it over to Draisaitl. There is value in that.
I’ve been a bit disappointed with JP’s game with respect to making plays. I’m a fan of his, to be clear, and I think the effort is there and the physicality has certainly increased. I do think he would benefit from holding onto the puck a little more.
The third player on a top 6 line needs to be able to score or else the opposition just targets the 2 forwards. Yamo doesn’t need to score 30 but he sure in the hell needs to score 20 especially with the best passer in the league.
He had just 2 goals and zero assists in his first 13 games last year, he was hardly setting the world on fire. Yet he still scored 20+21. He’s also coming off an injury which might be affecting his shooting ability. It’s way too early to sound the alarm.
There was no one to replace him with last year. Yamo has 0 Goals after 10 games playing with the best passer in the league. If he doesn’t start scoring Holloway are someone else is going to bump him down the food chain.
dustrock
November 2, 2022 9:33 am
Draisaitl’s line continues to lose the shot share and win the goal share.
Quality or quantity, a choice you have to make.
JJS
November 2, 2022 9:29 am
While appreciating that your goalie is the most important penalty killer, what else has changed from last year?
We are currently outscoring our PK – but this is generally not sustainable.
Not tying up sticks directly in front of the goalie?
Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR
November 2, 2022 9:28 am
The emergence of the third line is not getting the credit it deserves. We’ve been begging for a real one for like 10 years or more. I think the playoff run last year has erased our memory of how huge the drop-off was there. We always got caved every game in that matchup, but not anymore. All 3 are playing their best hockey we’ve seen from them in this jersey (granted, McLeod is still a pup), and they’re starting to show a bit of swagger. This is a huge box checked off on the path to a championship…
If your going to win a Cup you need a 3rd line Centre whose line can outscore the oppositions 3rd line. This 3rd line must also be able to hold water against the opponent’s 1st and 2nd lines.
Aka “Strome” I’m going a ways back but Stan weir, Ken linesman, Mike Krushelnyski even Jarret Stroll was a hell of a 3rd Centre. Could you imagine if we had Jason Arnott as our 3rd Centre.
In other words you need depth. You need to be able to play 2nd line quality players on the 3rd line. Hopefully also 3rd line quality guys in the 4th line too.
Maybe more importantly you will also need a competent 3rd D pair so there won’t be an obvious weakness every 5th shift(10 min TOI).
Since we’re clearly talking on-ice numbers, here are the actual stats for Ryan McLeod: 3 goals for divided by 51 shots for equals 5.88% shooting percentage. Do you consider that unsustainable? I don’t.
Actually I think they’ve been unlucky. His on-ice xGF is 4.89.
Third line AND fourth line. Last night looked good all around. Holloway at centre with two slow boots but smart players made things look pretty good. The whole team played better, but they still need better structure in the D end. But man this team is looking good with Depth. Finally.
Is Shore that slow? I thought I saw him fairly quick on a couple of occasions and some decent offensive zone chemistry with Holloway.
Durag
November 2, 2022 9:26 am
I’m a little torn on the goaltending. One the one hand, Skinner clearly should be starting at least 50% of the games right now. On the other hand, I am rooting for the funniest answer to “how many wins will Jack Campbell have before Matt Murray gets his first?”
Keep rotating them it seems to be working. As shaky as Campbell has been deflected shots are really hard to be in position for. Campbell is 5-2 wait till he finds his sea legs, say what you want to say about Campbell the man is 53W 14L and 8T in the last 3 years and this season so far.
fishman
November 2, 2022 9:20 am
What a first 10 games! Oilers top 5 forwards are simply on fire (looking at you Yamo) and bottom 6 are solid. After a shaky start our D has come around. Nemo starting to look comfortable and Kulak and Barrie recovering to norm after some sketchy early play. Cambell remains a concern as does the pretty awful PK. Thankfully Skinner has been lights out so far.
who
November 2, 2022 9:13 am
The only player that concerns me right now is Campbell. He will get plenty of time to settle in, that’s the beauty of big contracts with term, but he has not been good.
That first goal was horrible. If Smith or Koskinen lets that in this blog would have a meltdown. And there seems to be at least 1 of those goals per game.
Offside
November 2, 2022 9:06 am
“Leon and McDavid centreing two lines is like waiting for the Beatles and Stones to exceed each other with each new album” – Brilliant!
Is it possible to have long term playoff success by outscoring your mistakes rather than making them in the first place?
LMHF#1
November 2, 2022 9:01 am
Nashville was never in that hockey game. The home squad could easily have hung 10 on them. They eased up off the gas and then pulled away again if they caught sight in the rear view. 80s style victory.
I said it last night but it’s worth repeating – the biggest difference right now is the team is applying speed in all zones. This used to happen only on the attack. The opposition tries to settle into the offensive zone and suddenly there’s an Oiler with back pressure and another right in front of them. Then the puck is 90 feet in the other direction.
Combine that with the fact the third and fourth lines are a legit threat and that’s just too much to handle. Ryan McLeod had another excellent game last night. He’s scratching the surface of something really special.
Part of that has to do with spreading out the minutes.
Every player was > 10mins except for Shore w/ 9:25.
As soon as the bottom 9 got into trouble, 97 or 29 where over the boards
Paulie
November 2, 2022 9:01 am
Kane is a big skilled tough and mean man. Perfect for the club.
Connor’s shot seems to have a bit more on it this year too. Hyper quick release was always there, but it really flies of the blade now.
Durag
November 2, 2022 9:01 am
I really loved the Oilers not being intimidated and not getting drawn into a brawl, but rather ramping up the physicality within the rules when Nashville tried to muck it up. The Preds were instigating the scuffles after the play, but to my eye the biggest hits in the 3rd period came from Niemelainen, Holloway and Puljujarvi, and they were all clean as a whistle. Niemo’s lead to a PP and Puljujarvi’s would have if it wasn’t the last minute of a game and the refs weren’t in full game management mode.
Kesselring 5 sog
kostin too
Bourgault with a clear breakaway from center, little quick stick deke, goes 5-hole – stopped – damn.
Condors relentless int he off offensive zone – Peters, of all players, down low, comes up from behind the net – now I think he lost the puck trying to do a wrap but it went cross-crease to Janmark who buries it in to the yawing cage.
Kemps with the 2nd assist, I believe his second of the gae.
No goals in 40 minutes and now 4 in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd 3-1 Condors.
Bourgault takes the pass at center, little dish to Malone for the zone entry, button hook and back to Kesselring who sifts home his 5th of the season (about a minute after SD tied it up).
Kostin with the screen.
2nd no hitter in World Series history. First combined no no. Impressive.
Condors fire 34 shots through 2 periods but can’t cash. Early in the 3rd, first minutes, both Kemp and then Philp do amazing work at the offensive blue to keep the puck in after Janmark is pan-packed from behind on the side boards, Philp with a range, walks to near top of circles and the Condors 35th shot is Philps first pro goal.
Summarizing!
Chiasson’s struggles continue as he was held off the scoresheet with only 2 SOG in a 6-3 Wheaties loss.
At a 73.3% kill rate, the Oiler PK is presently 26th in the League.
(PP is 2nd at 33.3%)
Special teams are still a net positive (106.6%, er whatever).
That PK does need to improve though.
Different ways we could look at that. League combined average. Net difference to a median or mean. Or net ranking from the median. Probably many others, but I think in all ways we’re better than league average.
But the area to improve is glaring yes. Samples are still small too. 60:42 on the PK and 50:46 on the PP. We’re 2-9 GF-GA on PK and 11-1 on PP. A net positive there too.
Yeah, goal differential on special teams is probably the most accurate/relevant, though PP% + PK% is the easiest back of the napkin calculation (and just think, no one will say that any more in another 20 yrs).
Special teams +3 in 10 games is solid though, even if it could be better.
We’re blessed to be able to watch the best PP in the league (among the very best ever), so those PP numbers are basically at realistic expectations. A league average PK would make a big difference off that PP baseline.
FWIW, the Oilers have had great special teams the 3 years prior to this one. #1 PP (27.6%) and #7(tied) PK (81.8%). In real numbers that’s +54 goals in 209 games.
That’s actually only +2.6 goals per 10 games (with #1 and #7 special teams), so maybe we shouldn’t complain at all about the current +3 start.. (though the PK will probably improve, while the PP cools down a shade).
I agree. I said in a comment somewhere below that the PK is normally a strength. I think we’ll see it come around. I don’t think it will be 26th at the end of the year and it wouldn’t take much success to move the numbers materially, considering the sample size it’s joining..
ENer for Evereett pretty much seals it. I only caught the 3rd and it was a pretty ragged period by the Wheaties. Danielson was noticeable and looks likely to go in the 1st round. No points for Chiasson that period but played his usual cerebral game.
Savoie getting a chance to play with Griffith and McKegg.
Lavoie with Esposito and McPhee – I’ve only seen a few shifts and he’s looked mobile and tenacious on the forecheck (good sights as that’s not been his game).
Of note, Broberg out – “dinged” – sigh.
To be clear, he didn’t get “dinged” tonight, not dressed.
Good Pk work on that shift by Chiasson.
A sure sign I’m getting old. I’m rooting for the Managers more than the players in the World Series!
Thomson, first Canadian Manager in the Series vs Dusty Baker who’s never won a title as a Manager in his storied career. Kinda leaning towards Dusty.
I’ve gained a much greater appreciation for the Oilers PP, after watching what the Flyers did in four attempts during the second period tonight. Our team is blessed with tremendous skill and play making ability. Not so much Philadelphia.
One thing we have to credit Woodcroft with imo is how much more relaxed the team seems offensively under him than it did under Tippett, Hitchcock, McLellan.
By my eye, they are a team that is being encouraged to think offense first and while it may look ugly when they leak shots against on the counterattack, it’s paying dividends in terms of their patience and creativity with the puck. One example of this is how often the D pinch under Woodcroft. Another is how often Fs crisscross in the O zone.
HCs like Cooper and Gallant and Sullivan are rare imo because they don’t sacrifice offensive creativity for the sake of constant defensive responsibility. Their teams are much more freewheeling in the offensive zone without a slavish devotion to positional discipline. They’re not trading chances as much as they are maximizing their quality chances for while mitigating their quality chances against.
Early days still but Woodcroft seems cut from this same cloth and that is an excellent fit for a team whose greatest strengths are on the attack.
Woodcroft definitely knows how to make lemonade.
I do think it helps that he was gifted a significantly more talented roster than Tip or TMac.
Good points
Ive long said their cycle game was largely in effective which compounded one and done
It seems better. The key is setting up guys sneaking open close enough in or D sneaking down, as opposed to being in too close to finish, constant wrap arounds and trying to bang pucks through pads
Cross seam and low high plays work the best
Campbell has given up 4+ goals 4 times this season.
The defence needs to be better, but Campbell has definitely been part of the problem.
I am optimistic that things will improve as communication with his new team improves.
I’m optimistic because the guy arrived in Edmonton with 150 games of .916 SV% goaltending. It’s highly unlikely he’s suddenly become an .881 goalie.
Yeah, except that he has become an .881 goalie.
Now the task is to prove he isn’t a sub -.900 goalie.
Re: Erik Karlsson
If I’m Mike Grier, I’m probably looking to leverage Karlsson’s heater to extract a decent return for his contract that runs 4 seasons after this one. The Sharks are already bad, but they need to get worse before they can get better.
I’m not saying the Oilers should be interested, but I am saying the player could likely be traded for with San Jose retaining salary.
Even with the maximum 50% retained his cap hit would still be $5.75 million which not many teams can accommodate.
Perhaps if a 3rd team got involved.
HH – He has a full no movement as well doesn’t he? Another 4 years is a while to run on a $11.5 mill contract so like you say unless he’s going through multiple teams it’s probably a non starter. On top of that they already have $2.72 mill retained for Burns until the end of the 24-25 season, plus Martin Jones buyout: 2.4m, 2.9.m, 1.67m, 1.67m, 1.67m until the end of 26-27 season.
If I’m the Sharks I’d hold on to him though, they don’t have much else that’s all that elite on the back end and he’s at least exciting for their fans to watch.
Yep..they’re pretty much pooched for a long time and another 4 years of Vlasic @ $7 million is even worse.
Good old Vlasic. That has to be one of the most “less than good” contracts in the league.
and I am betting hairball was telling us how great those contracts were when they were signed….. The missing link, stanley on it’s way….. Oilers fucked cause the sharks are so great.
Please stop feeding the troll.
“So tiresome.”
That’s rich coming from you of all people!
Karlsson to the Oilers is, of course, totally crazy.
He’s another undersized RD who isn’t great defensively. He also injury prone, makes $11.5M, and would be the Oilers 2nd oldest player (though only 32).
At the same time, trading for Erik Karlsson would also be a Ken Holland type move (adding an aging, elite player that many think is past due).
Interesting to think about if nothing else.
How could it work? At 50% retained ($5.75M), Barrie and a ~$3M forward would need to go the other way. Karlsson for those two would/should actually open up enough cap space to ADD an extra player to the Oilers roster (they’d have enough cap for a 22 man roster instead of the current 21).
Karlsson also maintains exceptional even strength offense (~1.4 P/60 at 5v5) and impressive on ice results (relative to team), and still plays 19-20 minutes a night at even strength (and 23+ overall).
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=r&v=p&playerid=8474578
Because he’s still playing at a high level, I imagine retaining 50% would cost a significant plus on top of Barrie + ~$3M forward.
Probably not worth it, but the idea of Karlsson playing with the Oilers skill up front is pretty intriguing.
I would say retaining apx $25MM would certainly cost ALOT!!!!
B/C I am at work and have nothing better to do in this fall / winter storm ….
TOP SCORING SEASONS EVER: (no era adjusted, no games played. Raw Points –
GRETZKY – 215
GRETZKY – 212
GRETZKY – 208
GRETZKY – 205
LEMIEUX – 199
GRETZKY – 186
GRETZKY – 183
LEMIEUX – 168
GRETZKY – 168
GRETZKY – 164
GRETZKY – 163
LEMIEUX – 161
LEMIEUX – 160
___________________________
YZERMAN – 155
ESPOSITO – 152
NICHOLLS – 150
JAGR – 149
GRETZKY – 149
LAFONTAINE – 148
BOSSY – 147
ESPOSITO – 145
OATES – 142
GRETZKY – 142
LEMIEUX – 141
_________________________
24 SEASONS of 130 or more points, which include the highest D man seasons ever:
139 – ORR
138 – COFFEY
135 – ORR
__________________
Highest seasons post ’00
KUCHEROV – 128
THORNTON – 125
MCDAVID – 123
JAGR – 123
JAGR – 121
CROSBY – 120
McDavid’s on a pretty good goal pace right now. I know it’s not sustainable but it has the makings of a historic season already (since 1970-71):
Era Adjusted Goals Per Season:
Rank Player G/A Season
1. Connor McDavid 94 2022-23
2. Brett Hull* 78 1990-91
3. Andrei Svechnikov 76 2022-23
4. Alex Ovechkin 72 2007-08
5. Mario Lemieux* 71 1988-89
6. Cooney Weiland* 70 1929-30
Phil Esposito* 70 1970-71
8. Wayne Gretzky* 69 1983-84
9. Wayne Gretzky* 68 1981-82
Steven Stamkos 68 2011-12
Svechnikov is off to a good start, too.
From the Hockey Reference page
I fondly remember that season from Cooney Weiland …heck of a player …
His 117th birthday will be on Saturday, so timely post! 🥳🥳
Of note, immediately after retiring he became the Bruins Head coach, but for only 2 seasons. The second season he won the Cup and strangely following that season he became the Bruins AHL coach and coached at that level for 6 years.
There are no records for 8 seasons and then in 1950 he started coaching at Harvard, where he remained for 21 years as the Head Coach.
Interesting career.
Oops, meant to take out all the pre-1970 seasons. Missed that.
LT will remember it was the first year where the forward pass was allowed, but offsides weren’t invented yet. November 3rd of 1929 featured the first ever NFL game played under floodlights, between the Chicago Cardinals and mighty Providence Steam Roller, who of course were quite the proverbial steam roller and finished with a record of 4-6-2.
Nick Lucas “Tip Toe Through the Tulips” was the top radio hit of the year, sitting atop the US Billboard Charts for 10 weeks. Of course Tiny Tim brought that back as a hit in 1969. He was a Maple Leaf fan I believe and famously took the ice wearing Pat Quinn’s gear – this of course would be Punch Imlach’s final season there I believe as he was fired at the end of that season after getting swept by the Bruins. Which brings us back to LT.
This is fabulous.
Dino Kambeitz suspended for two games (I didn’t see the hit).
The timing is actually great as I wasn’t sure who was going to come out for Lavoie tonight (McKegg, Kambeitz, Philp…. Esposito).
Other than first goal I can’t really blame Souppy for the goals, and that’s kind of just bad luck goal.
Rest of them were very high danger goals (goals that goalie can’t get set for such as side to side passes or tipped pucks)
but he has been outplayed by the principal
I haven’t had time to watch Woodcroft’s post game interviews. After games like this (won, but with some loose play at times) is be fairly positive? Focused on mistakes? Figures they were lucky to win? I thought it was a good win with basically score effects just curious what his usual attitude is.
Nuge doesn’t get outfoxed often, that’s why he’s the Nuge.
Need a T-shirt. “What does the Nuge say?l”
Just a reminder, last season after 15 games Leon had 17 goals and 33 points.
Lets give Connor 25 games to see where is at before we deem the 50 goals in 39 games record to be at risk, shall we?
LOL that’s what I was thinking. Let’s start with 50 in 50, which would be an historic accomplishment.
So far the only players to have done so are:
Only five players — Maurice Richard, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky (three times), Mario Lemieux and Brett Hull (twice) — scored 50 goals within their team’s first 50 games, while a few others (Lemieux, Kurri, Mogilny, Neely) netted 50 in 50 or fewer games played.
courtesty Wikopedia …
Such good perspective to maintain. I’d be even more cautious and set my initial hopes at 50 in 82 and go from there.
Leon barely passed 50/82 last year despite a similar early heater. If Connor can beat Matthews’ 60 from last year and get his regular number of assists, I’d be ecstatic.
50 in 50 is pretty unrealistic, even for Connor. Leon rightly told everyone to hold their horses for himself early last year when people started raising the possibility.
Well that’s no fun.
Erik Karlsson is on pace for 62 goals.
Who saw that coming?
I was not expecting to see him #2 on the goal leaders chart.
He’s really all San Jose has. Good to see a late-career resurgence, he was Makar-esque in his heyday
I was not expecting MacKinnon to be #94 and Matthews #105.
It’s fun to track who has a chance of hitting the milestone and so far McDavid is the best bet.
Unless you want to bet on Karlsson coming closer than McDavid?
Why don’t you go post that on a Sharks forum because we don’t care.
Why don’t you stop feeding the troll? It is not pleasant to read and achieves nothing.
A rare Hip reference from our host!
He has an Ahead by a Century post fairly regularly…
I stand corrected, you are quite right.
Prospecting!
Another solo effort tonight, this time it’s Jake Chiasson in the spotlight. A recent swoon–one point in his last 8 GP–has displaced him from tops on his team in points, though he trails (three teammates) by only one. Can he make like Schaefer did last night and break out of a slump with gusto? All will be revealed once the puck drops at 6 p.m. Falun time.
Ahh, Falun… what a gong show, lol.
The judges would have also accepted, “I’ve Falun and I can’t get up!”.
Either way, I don’t think Jimmy Falun would approve.
I can’t agree with the first goal being on Campbell.
First shift of the game and the play starts with a waived off icing and all three Oiler forwards are below the Predator circles. Like WTF. But Kane is cruising south and has a chance to make a play on the left boards and rather than taking the man, fly-by tries to steal the puck, cheating for offense. Drai does sorta get back into the play but is too far behind to be effective and allow the D to tighten gaps and thus cut the sortie off at the blue line.
The puck then is DOUBLE deflected, off Nurse’s skate and then Ceci’s skate, deking Campbell out of his shorts (who has to cover the left post to defend against the intended recipient and was sliding in that direction) and the puck bounces straight to an unchecked Ekholm at the right side of the crease. Yamamoto’s man.
If you want Soupy to have that one, then expect a lot of sharp-angled shots to squeeze-in on near side posts.
Goal against number one is on the forwards. All of them… but especially Yams. cheating for O on the first shift. How many times do we have to see this happen?
And I can’t put either of the deflection goals on the Soupcan either. Both were highly skilled plays. You hope he gets one of those, but that probably doesn’t happen in many universes if we Monte Carlo the outcomes.
Which leaves the one-timer by Forsberg. Again, huge defensive breakdown, BUT reading the cross-seam one-timer play is Campbell’s specialty. No traffic either. Campbell gets a piece of the shot with his blocker and I am of the school that if you are a wide receiver and get a hand on the ball, it was catchable. Same for goalies and saves.
That said, plenty of people to blame on that play as well. Josi was key to breaking down our DZone cover on three goals. What a player.
PK has to be better. And if we want Soupy’s save percentage to improve… we’d better start playing better defence.
And that concerns me… when the team is rewarded for some poor play. Don’t get me wrong we could’ve blown the Preds out of the barn last night, but not every team is as weak as the Preds. Can’t let bad habits settle in.
Amazing Monte Carlo sim reference 🥰
Agree with the analysis… except the old sawhorse that a bigger goalie (eg. Skinner, Rinne, Vassy) probably gets in the way of 1-2 of those shots by virtue of size.
That being said, Saros was a Vezina finalist last year and Soup won.
Didn’t see it that way at all. The puck wasn’t moving that fast and the deflection was from a ways out. I expect an NHL goalie to be able to freeze that puck, or at least direct the rebound to the corner. Campbell punted a soft rebound right to Eckholm, who was Draisaitls man.
I think every goal against starts with multiple breakdowns elsewhere on the ice, but there are pucks that need to be stopped.
I 100% agree that the proper play was to freeze the puck or punt it far/wide. You can’t tee a puck up directly to your own backdoor. I don’t think it’s quite as bad a goal as it might seem at first glance, considering it changed angle on Campbell and bobbled, but I think Mike Smith bats that puck halfway down highway 2.
I think he just wasn’t wholly in the game yet.
All I know is Roli woulda paddled that away and maybe out of the zone.
I don’t recall Roli doing that a lot of times on his backhand off of a deflected shot/pass.
Great game last night from the boys!
But I gotta say, Jack Campbell was looking slower than molasses heading uphill in July!
Wouldn’t molasses move slower in a cold month?
Not uphill, in a cold month it would be at a standstill, whereas in a hot month it would be losing ground and going backwards. I guess you can argue that going backwards is at least moving and would be faster. Are there any lawyers or philosophers that can help with this?
Lol! Thanks guys!
Hard to be negative after a game like that. Let me try:
A hard fought but deserved win tomorrow will leave me feeling a lot more positive than yesterday’s cakewalk.
Secondary scoring isn’t an issue, tertiary scoring is. But very few teams have much of that and Edmonton’s 3rd line is getting it’s chances, so I don’t think it’s an issue anyhow.
I guess it’s a question of where the line is between secondary and tertiary scoring. Your sixth leading forward is theoretically a top-sixer, and I don’t think many people would call that tertiary, but that’s a definitional debate. The point is that we need Yamamoto to score beyond a 30-point clip, and Puljujarvi and Foegele to score beyond an eight point clip. And I’m pretty confident that all three of them will, just as I’m pretty confident that McDavid won’t continue to score at a 168-point clip and RNH won’t continue to score at a 98-point clip (hell, I’d be satisfied if he hit fifty for once), but it’s a question of by how much.
I’m not down on this team; it’s the best team we’ve had since 1990. It’s just that from what I’ve seen so far this season, I have them in the second tier of teams–the one that’s a lock to make the playoffs, should win at least one series, and could catch fire and take it all–rather than the one that’s on everybody’s list of Cup favourites.
(Of course, that 1990 team was probably also in that secondary tier, so…)
(Edit: Just checked, and the 1989-90 Oilers finished the regular season fifth in the league, which was higher than I remembered. So maybe they were considered a Cup contender the whole way through; I’d remembered that win being more of an upset, but I was also eight years old.)
I think it’s a little early to be tiering teams with any sort of confidence.
But I do share your concerns and extend them to defensive play. And PK is normally a strength for this team but has not been this year.
I’m perfectly happy for them not to be the top team in the League at this moment, and happy too they’re not at their seasonal peak (hopefully, yelp), because seasonal play about direction, ie which way their play is headed, and about building consistency.
Like you, I would like to see the Oilers continue to show improvement. I’d especially like to see them limit their mental mistakes. I am far more concerned about those errors than about our netminders.
Why do you hate Mcdavid and Nuge?
On a night where the ushers at Rogers were getting chances to score …..
Insert the obligatory, yes, the 3rd line is playing well. But…at some point you can’t keep pitching shut outs.
I agree with a bunch of this except the part about McDavid slowing down markedly. He’s going to post a season that puts him in the GOATs category, something Crosby never got to.
Folks are way way too backward looking on offense. Two expansions and the age out of the best goalies from the 2000/2005 era have ushered in a Brand New World for offense.
The NHL was a sleepy league for 20 years, the game has changed now. NBA scoring records were set decades ago, ditto with total offense and total skill. Along came Lebron, Curry, Westbrook and down they all went. There’s a generational player and then there’s a transcendent player. McDavid is a truly different breed of player. Hockey sense of Gretzky, skill of Lemieux, skating of Orr and the athleticism of all three put together.
This is McDavid and Drai’s first full season where they have an actual complement of NHL players on their wings. The sky is the damn limit here
Don’t sleep on him hitting 150 this season absent an injury. If things break right he’ll take out Yzerman’s mark and land among the Two Giants.
Frankly, I think he’s already the third giant; if he was playing against 1980s defencemen and goaltenders, I fully believe that he’d be pushing 200 with this Oilers lineup. But I think it will be a long, long time before we see anybody score 168 points again, and if you set the over/under on this season at 150, I take the under every time.
Will anyone be really shocked if McDavid gets 168 pts? It’s unlikely for sure, but it’s not some off-the-wall projection. Sure, the primary scorers will likely fall off the pace, but it’s also likely the secondary scorers will pick up the pace.
Let me acknowledge a mathematical error that’s permeated my comments this entire thread: McDavid is on pace for 192 points, not 168. Lordy.
Now that sounds like an unsustainable pace.
10, 11-11-22 projects to 90-90-180 over 82 games.
Jesus–yes. Not sure where my brain is today.
180.40
That .4 of a point will be the hardest to get, for sure.
I logged in for the first time in years specifically to like this post.
Thank you for clarifying … LT had him @ 12-12-24 ..
11-11-22 …. after 10 games.
IMO the markers are these:
123 Points – MCDAVID’S personal best to date
127 Points – JOE THORNTON’S modern day record (last 29 years)
140 Points – 9 players in last 120 years
to me, McDavid is already TOP 6 ALL TIME …
GRETZKY
ORR
LEMIEUX
HOWE
CROSBY
MCDAVID ….
Honestly I think McDavid obliterates the best single season in the past 25 years this year.
https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?aggregate=0&reportType=season&seasonFrom=19971998&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50
If you go back 30 years you also have Gretzky 93-94 (130 points), Jagr 95-96 (149 points) and Lemieux 95-96 (161 points) to contend with. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up around Jagr’s number.
I would object to arguing SH% heater for some players, then questioning secondary scoring for who are scoring well below their established levels.
The Oilers are currently tied for 4th in points%..
Nice to see the Canucks DEAD LAST in the standings …… 🙂
Yes but preference would be Flames last then Canucks!
Eh, I would prefer the Flames to languish in mediocrity. Just good enough to make the playoffs, not good enough to go beyond the first round. The type of team that is never bad enough to warrant a tear down/rebuild and can occasionally surprise a true contender, but never reaches anything beyond “win 1 round” status. And if they should trade their prospects and draft choices because “THIS year we have a chance!” then even better.
Honestly, I have trouble working up the hatred for the Flames that I do for the Canucks and Leafs. I want the Flames to be the Flames of the eighties–a good team, and a worthy playoff opponent, but one that usually loses to us.
The Canucks and Leafs, on the other hand, I’m content to see fail as hard as possible.
And the bonus – it’s HH kryptonite.
New Jersey is a very fast team – looking forward to a track meet vs. Oil.
Personally, I’ve been very hard on Jesse in the past. I’m absolutely loving his game right now. I suspect someone (Coach/Kane) told him to use his frame, and he’s really showing enormous growth this year.
Should we be watching the 50 in 39 countdown?
Nemo had to reinvent himself. Wonder if he and PJ have discussed?
According to reports coming out of camp, Kane has apparently been mentoring him on his physicality.
Yes you can see Kane always talking to Jesse in a mentoring way. Besides the obvious Kane has brought a lot of leadership. It strikes me as kinda funny that Kane has taken a fancy to Jesse. I guess in everyday life you see friends in a relationship with someone that you wouldn’t exactly expect.
i can totally see kane and pulju getting along, kane is a big personality, by a lot of accounts jesse is more reserved and opposites often attract. I love that they are good friends as it has seemed in the past that jesse didnt necessarily belong in either of the groups (the mcd/drat/nuge/nurse and now add hyman) or the (mcleod/foegele/yammo/bouchard) group that we often see posting content together.
With kane and niemo to hang with i can see him settling in a bit more.
Like you and me Reja!
Cool… I’d assumed it was Kane (or Coach), possibly even Kassian or Keith from last season but didn’t know for sure. Thanks for the confirmation… cheers!
“If” this is all Jesse will be I still make room on the roster for him, just unsure of the salary for this kind of player moving forward. 3M seems high even with the projected cap increase.
Our gracious host makes some comments about Campbell needing to find his game, and how true it is.
Note all this data is from natural statty and reflects all situations with goalies playing over 150 mins.
Shots against.
Campbell- #22 in the league with 32.89 shots against/60 mins
Skinner- #8 in the league with 35.46 shots against/60 mins.
High danger shots against.
Campbell- #52 in the league with 7 high danger shots against/60 mins
Skinner- #30 in the league with 8.47 high danger shots against/60 mins.
Skinner is facing more high danger shots, and more low quality shots.
Campbell- #44 in the league with 881 sv% in 7 GP
Skinner- #1 in the league with 955 sv% in 4 GP
Rush attempts against per 60.
Campbell- 1.47 per 60
Skinner- 2.12 per 60
Skinner has been by far the better goalie so far, I would alternate them 50/50 until Campbell proves he is capable of providing at minimum league average goaltending.
Look at the last 10 games.
Vancouver. Win 4-3 Campbell starts. 36 shots against
Calgary. Lose 4-3 Campbell starts. Skinner perfect in relief. 42 shots against
Sabres. Lose 4-2. Skinner starts. 24 shots against.
St louis. Lose 2-0. Campbell starts. 40 shots against.
Penguins. Win 6-3 Campbell Starts. 35 shots against.
St Louis. Win 3-1 Skinner starts. 38 shots against.
Blackhawks. Win 6-5. Campbell Starts. 36 shots against.
Flames. Win 3-2. Skinner starts. 42 shots against.
Predators. Win 7-4. Campbell starts. 23 shots against.
Skinner is facing more shots and is performing better. Skinner has 3 starts and 2 wins. The 4th game he played he had a shutout but it was lost already due to Campbell. Winning percentage of 0.666%, Campbell has 7 starts with 5 wins with a very respectable 0.714% however if you consider the fact the oilers have scored 6 or more goals in 3 of those games it becomes more concerning.
That’s All Situations data you’re quoting. Campbell’s Achilles heel so far has been PK (he’s historically been pretty good on the PK) and if you look at 4v5 numbers you’ll see that Campbell faces more shots, more scoring chances, more high dangers and more expected goals than Skinner. That’s on the skaters, not on the goalie.
There are two aspects of Campbell’s game that I’ve noticed are a clear step down from last year’s starter:
I know it’s easy to say “The skaters play worse in front of Campbell for some reason”, but it seems a little bit too simple. Could it be that Campbell is giving up juicy secondary opportunities for more scoring chances against, and isn’t as good at playing the puck back to the good guys as Skinner, creating more shots against?
i must say, skinner looks like a young mike smith with better tracking. schmiddy will always have a place in my heart.
I agree with your take on rebound control for sure.
In terms of puck handling Campbell’s may not be as spectacular as Smith’s could be at times but not as likely to result in a catastrophe either. My sphincter tightening/60 is much lower with Campbell than it ever was with Smith.
Good work pulling/working the numbers on this. It’s good to see it laid out like that. I will agree with Armchair though, the PK needs to come around a bit and we’ll see his numbers climb a tad.
Heck, before the game Draisatl mentioned that the team haven’t been playing as well in front of Campbell as they have in front of Skinner so they know it’s not all on him. (Interestingly Draisatl then immediately lets Ekholm walk in for the chance at the start of the game – we’ll ignore that though).
In terms of intangible elements to the Skinner v Campbell performance that I have no way of ever knowing if they matter or not. Campbell has just joined this team, he’s playing in a new building. Sometimes it takes players a bit to get used to how defences are going to behave in front of them, how the lighting is on the ice versus other buildings etc. No way of knowing if that’s a thing but I think that if it is the case then Campbell is a good enough goalie to swing it round over the next month.
As for usage, I see no issues with the team going pretty much 50/50 over the next few weeks. Keep both goalies rolling and engaged. I’d expect Skinner on Thursday, then Campbell Saturday, then it’s a road trip with a back to back on Monday and Tuesday so both will play regardless.
The 5 penalties to 1 gesture that Hynes made to the ref after Nurse’s helmet was ripped off really bugged me. You just knew they would be looking for an excuse to even that count up, at the expense of an actual infraction against the hometown team.
To their credit it didn’t get too silly, despite a couple of obvious muggings that were ignored, but it does speak to a culture of game management that is a stain on the game, IMO.
As far as fairness, this is currently the balance sheet regarding PP/PK chances for the team to date:
39 PP / 43 PK. Last nights PP differential, 6 to 2 for the Oilers is not typical. Generally, as we know, having the 2 best players on the planet over the past 5 years does not result in guaranteed favourable calls, notably the first game of the season (and at home) vs Vancouver the PP opportunities were 8 to 4 for the visitors and that wacky game at Chicago it was 10 to 7 for the Hawks. Typically, there is obviously an intentional effort call an “even” game.
This article shows this to be fairly true: https://soundofhockey.com/2021/03/27/analyzing-penalties-are-called-in-the-nhl/amp/
Anyway, just thought I should repost this, because I think it is important and likely “got lost” in the comments a bit when I posted it on the weekend:
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/754da470ce9bafccdc9c33cb70741d8e?s=64&r=g€√¥£€^$
Reply to judgedrude
October 29, 2022 2:40 pm
Not that I am aware of, but this website publishes game day officials daily:
https://scoutingtherefs.com/category/tonights-officials/nhl-tonights-officials/
The NBA, however, does this themselves:
https://official.nba.com/referee-assignments/
The NBA also provides event data assessments and video for the last 2 minutes of games with scores that are within 3 points and are open to enquiries:
https://official.nba.com/2022-23-nba-officiating-last-two-minute-reports/
This is a site that discusses how NBA refs are evaluated and how the data of officiated games is compiled and how that data is used by NBA & G-League teams as well as the league and refs themselves for Continuous Improvement purposes:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-nba-uses-its-data-on-referees/
The link to the efforts that the NHL has taken regarding Continuous Improvement and transparency of it’s officiating personnel are here:
So did anyone have Jesse in the ‘First fighting major of the year’ pool?
First fighting major is in the books but we’re still waiting for the first fight.
Treliving was praised for the trade of the century Flames have the best D in the league blah blah blah.I myself thought it was really chancy to sign Huberdeau to that huge contract Weeger as well without ever having played a game in Calgary’s system or just living in the City of Calgary. Huberdeau had a career year on a loaded team he’s seems to have lost his magic his line is terrible. How soon before the blender comes out for Sutter. If it wasn’t for the other lines they would be below 500.
I’m not making any excuses for the Flames but the season is 10-11 games old. Lots of ‘star’ players aren’t producing like they did last year which is very weird. The Panthers have had a terrible start to their season too.
Having said that, I hope Huberdeau continues to take a poop and has his coach comment on these actions for the rest of the season. That’ll do wonders for that market, the player, and Calgary’s lack of progression in the playoffs.
Lots of Flames had career seasons with the lowest man games due to injury last year.
Regression but still a 100 point team imo.
I agree. If the Flames come back with the exact same roster as last year, they are meh. Career years throughout the roster last season. No injuries. They even got lucky with Covid, if that’s possible. Yet they were dominated in the playoffs by a team with two of its top three players hobbled by severe injurious.
The Flames are better today IMO. The problem with their roster is long-term contracts to aging players, which will bite them in the ass sooner than later.
Better with Lucic on the first line?? lol
Why are the Flames better? Johnny bought into Sutter’s candidness and performed with his best season at both ends of the rink. He also made Lindholm a sniper. Huberdeau ego might clash with Sutter’s coaching. I found it very odd that Sutter would be so blunt to say Huberdeau was taking a shit on the post game interview. I take it as Sutter mocking Huberdeau for not being prepared with his bowel movement schedule.
Hmm. You found it odd that Sutter said Huberdeau was taking a dump? That’s actually classic Sutter. If he’s dumping on anyone, it’s the media, not the player.
Huberdeau is not a lesser player than Johnny Hockey and has better numbers over the last four years. They both had career years last year.
I agree with Reja on this one. It came across to me as an insult. Everyone trumpeted Sutter as hilarious and straight up but he could have easily said equipment issue or something else.
Frame it another way – do you think Woodcroft would disclose that about Connor?
He said taking a shit not dump. I’m of Sutter’s age and I truly believe it was a dig at the player. The reason I hated Johnny so much was because he was so good at creating offence and he also made his linemates better. I don’t hate Huberdeau because I don’t even notice him. Huberdeau came from a stocked Panther team that was strictly offence first to a Sutter led team. Huberdeau probably thought he was going to be a Panther for life, no pressure, beautiful life style instead he takes the money knowing full well Sutter is a defence first Coach.
I don’t see it that way.
Sutter went out of his way to state that Huberdrau is a great player and he doesn’t care about the pts because he plays a 200 foot game and all he cares about how the game is played and the pts will come.
I think by taking a shit, he meant he was taking a shit, and by taking a shit he meant he had a turtle head poking out.
There’s really no reason to read into it.
You guys know that Huburdeau wasn’t actually taking a crap, right?
He went down, with the trainer, after having taking a couple short twirls on the ice testing out some sort of injury.
Have you guys ever gone for a shit in hockey gear? It’s a fairly big deal lol
Sure but we know that is not what Huburdeau went for – it was injury related.
Does anyone else think that it was a mistake for Niemo to go for ‘the big hit’ at that stage in the game? The Preds were down and (almost) out- it seemed to wake them up. I do like the exuberance- but seeing our guy turtle afterwards was a little awkward. No he doesn’t HAVE to fight but he has to know what’s coming vs. a team like the Preds if he tries something like that when our team is up by 3. It was a bad look.
I don’t think it would have looked like a big hit if the Nashville player didn’t hit the brakes and lean backward. It left Niemolainen with no resistance and therefore he ended up leaning way too far forward and making it look more like he was head hunting. I think, without the Nashville player trying to stop and lean back it would have been a much more normal mundane hit. I don’t mind if he doesn’t fight and the Oilers get a PP.
Totally agree and fuck them Neimo should hammer them any chance he gets. That’s his style. Make them think twice.
Got a PP for his team out of it when the player he was checking chickened out. I saw it as a dumb play by the Nashville player whose teammate turtled first.
Win for Nemo, you don’t have to knuckle up because the other guys ego got hurt. Nashville was only in the game because Campbell was soft, the Oil were the much better team throughout.
Opposite.
Pound the crap out of a team like that when they’re down.
It’s about time the Oilers exerted authority over games as opposed to playing desperation hockey.
He is really the only physical D the Oilers have. Part of his role is the Larsson sting.
No, I don’t think that at all.
I came for the 3rd and stayed for the La Bamba.
And in that time, we watched the Nuge make a pass so finely knit, his Grandma had tears.
Patiently holding on to the puck until the very last minute, and squeezing a puck through Josi’s legs with a tolerance of 0.1inch. Unbelievable play and solid finish by 29.
Someone may have said this may be Nuge’s career season.
I won’t get ahead of myself, but the man is showing real patience with the puck when the play is pass not shoot. He’s had Grade A opportunities too, and they will cash.
Keep it up NUGE!!
Beside’s the boxcores, Yammers was a real hound on the boards, winning puck battles against the boards, and making opponents outbreaks difficult. If you want to win playoff hockey, you gotta win those.
And LT, Jesse is not aware of Rule no 4000. His opponent dropped the mitts, but Jesse would not be baited. Good for him, standing up for himself but keeping his composure.
Why did Jesse even get a fighting penalty?
How was he supposed to disengage? He obviously wasn’t looking to fight.
Where were the refs? I’ve seen the refs get between two willing combatants and not let them fight.
NHL refs are simply the worst in the world. It’s not even close.
That should have been a 4 minute minor for roughing for nashville.
That 1st period…wow. Nashville are a tenacious bunch and the Oil made them look pedestrian with their speed. It was relentless.
Now the PK…ugh…they have to button that down because we all know playoff hockey is a different animal and that will be a quick death for the Oil if they continue that PK trend. That’s my one big worry about the team.
Campbell’s night was not good. I’ve never played goal but by my eye he doesn’t seem “settled”. Almost like a nervousness about him. Is it a system thing? Reading his defenders? I hope someone with knowledge could help the group understand how easy/hard it is for new goalies to adapt to new teams.
The position is 90% about confidence in yourself and knowing what the player with the puck is going to do.
One thing I’ve noticed with Campbell is that it’s pretty easy for a player to freeze him in one spot, then either deke or change angles and he is slow to react. He doesn’t seem to move laterally to his glove side very smoothly.
To my eyes, all his reactions looked very slow last night.
Barrie was better yesterday and Niemo looked pretty good. That third pairing is getting better, but as LT mentioned, that’s with a decent amount of time with 97.
I liked Yamo’s game. It may be that the third guy on that second line doesn’t put up as many points, but that’s okay if the D-game is there, he can hunt for pucks, and his line wins the goal share. There were a couple of occasions yesterday where Yamo won a 50/50 puck and sent it over to Draisaitl. There is value in that.
I’ve been a bit disappointed with JP’s game with respect to making plays. I’m a fan of his, to be clear, and I think the effort is there and the physicality has certainly increased. I do think he would benefit from holding onto the puck a little more.
The third player on a top 6 line needs to be able to score or else the opposition just targets the 2 forwards. Yamo doesn’t need to score 30 but he sure in the hell needs to score 20 especially with the best passer in the league.
He did last year. What makes you think he won’t again?
the fact he is 10 games in with 0 goals?
He had just 2 goals and zero assists in his first 13 games last year, he was hardly setting the world on fire. Yet he still scored 20+21. He’s also coming off an injury which might be affecting his shooting ability. It’s way too early to sound the alarm.
There was no one to replace him with last year. Yamo has 0 Goals after 10 games playing with the best passer in the league. If he doesn’t start scoring Holloway are someone else is going to bump him down the food chain.
Draisaitl’s line continues to lose the shot share and win the goal share.
Quality or quantity, a choice you have to make.
While appreciating that your goalie is the most important penalty killer, what else has changed from last year?
We are currently outscoring our PK – but this is generally not sustainable.
Not tying up sticks directly in front of the goalie?
The emergence of the third line is not getting the credit it deserves. We’ve been begging for a real one for like 10 years or more. I think the playoff run last year has erased our memory of how huge the drop-off was there. We always got caved every game in that matchup, but not anymore. All 3 are playing their best hockey we’ve seen from them in this jersey (granted, McLeod is still a pup), and they’re starting to show a bit of swagger. This is a huge box checked off on the path to a championship…
If your going to win a Cup you need a 3rd line Centre whose line can outscore the oppositions 3rd line. This 3rd line must also be able to hold water against the opponent’s 1st and 2nd lines.
Not necessarily. The first thing is not to be scored on. They have proven they can more than hold their own so far. The goals will come.
Aka “Strome” I’m going a ways back but Stan weir, Ken linesman, Mike Krushelnyski even Jarret Stroll was a hell of a 3rd Centre. Could you imagine if we had Jason Arnott as our 3rd Centre.
In other words you need depth. You need to be able to play 2nd line quality players on the 3rd line. Hopefully also 3rd line quality guys in the 4th line too.
Maybe more importantly you will also need a competent 3rd D pair so there won’t be an obvious weakness every 5th shift(10 min TOI).
Is McLeod’s 60% goal share not enough?
Yes he’s playing better than good that’s my point but can he keep it up for the grind of 82 games and Playoffs.
Not when it’s based on a 42.9% shooting percentage.
Since we’re clearly talking on-ice numbers, here are the actual stats for Ryan McLeod: 3 goals for divided by 51 shots for equals 5.88% shooting percentage. Do you consider that unsustainable? I don’t.
Actually I think they’ve been unlucky. His on-ice xGF is 4.89.
Third line AND fourth line. Last night looked good all around. Holloway at centre with two slow boots but smart players made things look pretty good. The whole team played better, but they still need better structure in the D end. But man this team is looking good with Depth. Finally.
Is Shore that slow? I thought I saw him fairly quick on a couple of occasions and some decent offensive zone chemistry with Holloway.
I’m a little torn on the goaltending. One the one hand, Skinner clearly should be starting at least 50% of the games right now. On the other hand, I am rooting for the funniest answer to “how many wins will Jack Campbell have before Matt Murray gets his first?”
35
Keep rotating them it seems to be working. As shaky as Campbell has been deflected shots are really hard to be in position for. Campbell is 5-2 wait till he finds his sea legs, say what you want to say about Campbell the man is 53W 14L and 8T in the last 3 years and this season so far.
What a first 10 games! Oilers top 5 forwards are simply on fire (looking at you Yamo) and bottom 6 are solid. After a shaky start our D has come around. Nemo starting to look comfortable and Kulak and Barrie recovering to norm after some sketchy early play. Cambell remains a concern as does the pretty awful PK. Thankfully Skinner has been lights out so far.
The only player that concerns me right now is Campbell. He will get plenty of time to settle in, that’s the beauty of big contracts with term, but he has not been good.
That first goal was horrible. If Smith or Koskinen lets that in this blog would have a meltdown. And there seems to be at least 1 of those goals per game.
“Leon and McDavid centreing two lines is like waiting for the Beatles and Stones to exceed each other with each new album” – Brilliant!
Is it possible to have long term playoff success by outscoring your mistakes rather than making them in the first place?
Nashville was never in that hockey game. The home squad could easily have hung 10 on them. They eased up off the gas and then pulled away again if they caught sight in the rear view. 80s style victory.
I said it last night but it’s worth repeating – the biggest difference right now is the team is applying speed in all zones. This used to happen only on the attack. The opposition tries to settle into the offensive zone and suddenly there’s an Oiler with back pressure and another right in front of them. Then the puck is 90 feet in the other direction.
Combine that with the fact the third and fourth lines are a legit threat and that’s just too much to handle. Ryan McLeod had another excellent game last night. He’s scratching the surface of something really special.
Part of that has to do with spreading out the minutes.
Every player was > 10mins except for Shore w/ 9:25.
As soon as the bottom 9 got into trouble, 97 or 29 where over the boards
Kane is a big skilled tough and mean man. Perfect for the club.
Connor’s shot seems to have a bit more on it this year too. Hyper quick release was always there, but it really flies of the blade now.
I really loved the Oilers not being intimidated and not getting drawn into a brawl, but rather ramping up the physicality within the rules when Nashville tried to muck it up. The Preds were instigating the scuffles after the play, but to my eye the biggest hits in the 3rd period came from Niemelainen, Holloway and Puljujarvi, and they were all clean as a whistle. Niemo’s lead to a PP and Puljujarvi’s would have if it wasn’t the last minute of a game and the refs weren’t in full game management mode.
Did JP even drop his gloves, I didn’t see it.
In fact, it looked very effective seeing those big hockey glove fingers in the opponents face.
At the Oil 10 game mark
WC Bettman 500 leaderboard (partial)
+7 VEG
+4 EDM
+3 dal
+2 CGY, wpg
+1 min, SEA
…