Game 20 2022-23: Oilers at Islanders

by Lowetide

Since Connor McDavid arrived in the NHL, the Edmonton Oilers are 7-3-1 against the New York Islanders. That sounds contrary to my memory, so I checked. My memory flagged the losses because they were by big scores: NYI 8-1 on February 7, 2016; 4-1 NYI on March 7, 2017; 5-2 NYI on February 16, 2019. It’s that 8-1 game sure as hell that stuck in my brain. Funny how the mind works.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • At home to: NAS, NJD, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: WAS, TBY, CAR, FLA (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: LAK, VEG (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected (1-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: FLA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CHI (Expected (1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • November expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
  • Actual November results: 4-6-0, 8 points in 10 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 10-9-0, 20 points in 19 games

A win tonight will put the Oilers on a pace to finish the season with 90 points. That’s not a playoff team, but a win keeps the team running with the pack until the roster finds some answers for several pressing issues (as we discussed yesterday).

POSSIBLE OILERS LINEUP

Warren Foegele gets the push on the McDavid line, while Jesse Puljujarvi returns to the skill group after a brief time on the third line. McDavid-Hyman have been excellent five-on-five (11-8 goals), Draisaitl-Nuge is 4-5 goals and will need to improve on that goal share.

On defense, a reminder that the Nurse-Ceci duo is 8-9 goals and the Kulak-Bouchard combination is 6-7 goals (both numbers five-on-five).

TOTAL RECALL

Tyler Benson had a strong game against Henderson last night. He had an assist on Bakersfield’s first period goal (a fine backhand tape to tape into the slot) and looked faster than in the past. I know, I know, but he does. Xavier Bourgault scored a goal by driving to the net, he’s now 4-4-8 in 15 games. Mike Kesselring also scored and Olivier Rodrigue had another solid outing. The kids are alright in Bakersfield.

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Tarkus

Summarizing!

Schaefer potted an EN goal to clinch a 4-2 Seattle victory. 15th tally of the season.

Wanner and Lachance were held pointless in losses.

€√¥£€^$

We are at the quarter pole and this team has been playing horribly, but they are still playing 0.500 hockey. It could be much worse, there is still a lot of track left and they put 49 shots on night tonight after a lousy start.

I predict that by mid-next week we will see a much better team and excellent results over the next month. All is very far from lost, my friends.

Boil-in-the-Oil

We are Oilers fans . . . forever optimistic.

maudite

I’m hesitant to bring strength of schedule into any conversation after it was so aggressively abused last year down stretch, over in “any-straw-i-can-grasp-ville”, but flames and oilers likely rising above current depths as they are running as the two who have had hardest schedules up to now.

I hope no panic button until current group has a chance to correct course in calming water.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Scungilli Slushy

Good points

I’d counter with that if you play good teams and lose a lot, you’re not also a good team.

The best teams beat all of the other teams at a .650 – .750 rate or whatever it is

The issue is that they have two of the five best forwards one being the best, the GM has had years to sort the team out, so we expected an ascendant team by now, and it’s not

Spartacus

Is this team ever going to be good?

It’s the same garbage year after year after year.

Never a step forward; just running in place – skating in sand – every season.

prefonmich

When Woodcroft first came in he focused on a team game and reduced Mcdavid and Drais ice time, playing a 4 line game and the team was playing as a team. They’ve gone back to Mcdavid and a prayer. You can’t win with one player no matter how good that player is. It is always tempting when coaching that level of superstar to just play the crap out of him but he needs to play less to be at his backchecking and skating best and ther rest of the team needs to know they have important roles as well.

Bank Shot

The issue is more that the other players aren’t performing.

Are people suggesting they can’t perform because McDavid gets too much ice time and media attention?

Crosby got the same treatment in Pittsburgh and his supporting cast pulled their weight.

The supporting cast in Edmonton is just proving to not be good enough. The solution is to get better players. I mean Janmark and Kostin just came up from the AHL and they don’t look much different than the majority of the other players on the roster.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bank Shot
Spartacus

Sadly, Janmark and Kostin look much better than their linemates.

But that wears off after a bit of time with the Oilers.

Soon they’ll play with the same lack of urgency, the same apparent disinterest in winning that their teammates display.

JimmyV1965

I don’t know what the hell you do with Bouchard. Nothing is working for him out there. He’s played much better in the past so you gotta think it’s a confidence thing. You don’t want to trade him. You can’t send him down, but you shouldn’t really be playing him.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

you look at his PDO and realise the guy has had some of the worst luck on the team regarding shooting%. u wait for it to regress to normal and the points to start racking up.

Optimism is like heroin

Robertson is a huge piece for Dallas. Interesting to note why he dropped in the draft. He had heavy boots, slow acceleration but good top end. He is a point for a prospects ability to improve skating to get to the NHL.

McSorley33

Special Mention

GF%

JP 22% – mostly playing with Gods as his C

OriginalPouzar

McLeod is his most common linemate (then Nuge, the Foegele, then McDavid).

Kurri17

Currently on pace for 4 goals, 17 points on the year. $3 million per.

McSorley33

Worst bottom group in NHL?

GF%

McLeod 30%
Foggy 35%
Ryan 33%
Holloway 20%

Material Elvis

A team is as good as its worst players.

Kurri17

As of now, yes.

McSorley33

Elite Oilers GF%:

McDavid 48%
Hyman. 44%
Drai. 45%

jimmyneutron

Oh my!

McSorley33

RNH 44%

McSorley33

US Thanksgiving tomorrow

Dont look at the standings

McSorley33

A couple posters yesterday had no concerns with our goal scoring.

Even the Oiler broadcasting crew starting to mention the feeble bottom 6 scoring…..now that takes some doing.

OriginalPouzar

Wait until they start to mention the top 6 scoring which is not very good (5 on 5).

McDavid has 11 points and Drai 9 (at 5 on 5) – in 20 games

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

i brought this up on dustys show on a call and got lampooned and called a goof because i said that mcd and drat were not breaking even 5v5.

Solly

Watching this Canucks game makes me really appreciate Jack Michaels calling our games.

if I had to listen to these two awful schlubs during this horrid stretch of games…I’d seriously consider cutting my cable.

Spartacus

John Garrett?

Possibly the biggest homer in the history of homes. Honourable mention to Eric Francis.

They are both unlistenable and unwatchable and it seems unpossible they still have jobs.

Tarkus

This is how I feel about Jack Edwards on the Bruins PxP.

teddyturnbuckle

I’d like to see the Oilers shoot from the point more with two guys in front of the net when a goalie is that hot. Deflections were the only thing beating that goalie tonight.

Ladainiantomlinson

Good point. I’d also like them to figure out how to follow coaching advice I have to think Woodcroft and company are patiently imparting, instead of blowing assignments and making needless errors. Effort is great unless it’s unfocused.

Tarkus

Petrov did not appear in North Bay’s lineup because I am an idiot and they did not actually play tonight.

cowboy bill

I thought they would come up with a defensive gem with Campbell back in net to welcome him back .

Ryan

When you’re a fan of the Oilers, you always have to expect the unexpected.

Even this offseason when Dom faded the team a bit I thought he was being a little harsh.

Still, I didn’t expect to be outside of the playoffs at the quarter pole.

I was worried about that Campbell contract though. Yikes.

Every GM in the league should have this page saved in their browser:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

Conclusion: I’m going to use the Linear aging curve going forward in my Hockey Marcels, but no matter which one you use a few points are still clear:
1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable
3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart

Meanwhile, it’s early days but Spriggin’s guy is 26 with a .929

Harpers Hair

And his other guy ($2 million cap hit) is .925

Ryan

Holland’s that guy that finds the buy low candidate, but still pays in full.

Athanasiou was -45 in 46 games and Holland still paid two second rounders in trade.

Captain Jack was mired in an apparent slump playing below replacement level for half a season and Holland lines up $25 m for him.

Harpers Hair

Don’t know if you’ve seen Jon Willis’ article at the Athletic today but Campbell has historically gone through these huge swings in performance throughout his career.

When he was signed, I tried to point this out but was, of course, shouted down although I’ve spent a lot of time watching him in LA and and Toronto.

Obviously we might expect another upswing in performance but, as you say, the aging curves will likely not be kind.

jp

Meanwhile, it’s early days but Spriggin’s guy is 26 with a .929

Those curves sure as hell didn’t predict that.

Ryan

Not specifically, but Spriggins shops in the under 30 goalie aisle which does align with those curves.

Ryan

Joe found a 28-year-old Francouz in the KHL
Joe traded for a 26-year-old Grubaur and walked away at 29.
Joe traded for a 31-year-old Keumper and walked away at 32.
Joe found a 24-year-old Jonas Johannson on waivers
Trades for a 26-year-old Georgiev and signs for 3 years.

Notice a pattern?

The impressive thing with Spriggins and Joe is that they find ways to mitigate risk. Goalies are risky especially. They take so long to develop and even some of the elite ones flame out before 30.

Look at John Gibson who was one of the truly elite goalies in the game. He’s been washed up apparently for a few seasons now and he’s only 29.

The classic GM move is to find an established goalie in his 30’s and pay him dollars and term and hope for the best. This has handcuffed a number of teams over the years when disaster strikes and these guys don’t perform.

The Oilers are the current example if Jack doesn’t rebound.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
jp

Yes, but look at the numbers in the article.

Expect a:
.001 drop per year from age 25-28
.002 drop per year from 29-31
.003 drop per year from 32-34
.004 drop per year from 35-38

If we go off last years SV% for Campbell that predicts:
.912
.910
.907
.904
.900

For Georgiev, his .898 is only getting worse (though slower than Campbell is getting worse). .898 becomes:
.897
.896
.895
(.893)
(.891)

If you want to be charitable and start at Georgiev’s career .908 SV% (which would be really very charitable since he’s been .910, .905, .898 the most recent 3 seasons) you get:
.907
.906
.905
(.903)
(.901)

And again, that’s being extremely charitable with where you start Georgiev in terms of SV%.

The article says Campbell is the better bet, in particular over the next 3 seasons (and if you take Georgiev’s recent seasons into account it’s not even close).

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
Ryan

I think the important idea of the article are the general concept of goalie aging curves. This is aggregate data which doesn’t often do a good job of predicting individual outcomes.

Since this is aggregate data, baseline SV%’s have small sample sizes, and goalie SV% varies wildly from one year to the next, I don’t think the point of the article was to be used as you have done so to make a prediction/bold conclusion. I believe that you realize this, but like to have fun?

Sakic mitigates his risk by not signing 30-year-old goalies to dollars and term and targeting younger acquisitions while limiting his exposure on cap and term.

jp

It’s almost like you’re arguing the younger player is always the better bet, irrespective of past performance.

Obviously the aggregate data from something like this is going to do a poor job of predicting any specific player. The aging curve (or line) is the key piece though. How much regression is expected or likely.

There’s no question the Campbell deal has more ‘risk’ since it’s larger, for longer and for the older player.

There’s also no way (using statistical predictions or aging curves) to project Georgiev as the better goalie in the near term. It’s just not possible, his SV% was was 16 points lower than Campbell’s each of the previous 2 years and he played about 2/3 of the games that Campbell did.

jp

Fair enough point about mitigating risk with 3 vs. 5 year deals on younger goalies. Still, if your 26-year-old is starting 10-15 SV% points back of your 30-year-old, the younger player remains a worse bet.

The other thing you didn’t mention with the Sakic/McFarland/Sprigings strategy is the assets out.

For their 3 starters they’ve paid:
1st
Timmins (32nd overall)
2nd
3rd
3rd
3rd
5th
Plus a $5.5M cap dump

People accuse Holland of sending picks away like a drunken sailor, but he’s spent zero assets on goalies since he arrived in Edmonton. And through the first 3 seasons at least the Oilers have managed to have above average SV%’s each year.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I mean, when you are an Oilers fan, expect the expected: the Oilers will do everything the hard way.

McSorley33

Yeah, lots of people in here gave Dom a hard time on his Oilers prediction

Victoria Oil

Tonight’s Oilers game reminded me of the Canada-Belgium game. Both Canada/Oilers deserved a better outcome but lacked finishing and were going up against excellent goaltending.

McSorley33

Did not register a shot until the first was mostly over….

Score effects after that

Sierra

This team is really missing something. Passion, nastiness, I don’t know, but something is missing.

Boil-in-the-Oil

Yes. This.
And it’s super frustrating, knowing that they should be better. So much skill, such poor execution. Is it coaching? Is it the player-type mix? I just dont get it… it continues, being an Oilers fan is very difficult.

DevilsLettuce

Kenny Holland would like to announce the signing of Tucan Keith, Duncan’s long lost twin bother only recently discovered who’s been an absolute dynamite 2nd pairing LHD defender in the Caribbean league of the America’s.

Kurri17

This Oilers team that is supposedly “going for it” is simply not a good team. They are a mediocre team at best. I guess the loss of Kane, Keith and Smith has hampered them more than expected. No excuses though, the Oilers suck.

edoil1

I think you hit in on the head,weak leadership without veterans gone or hurt.

cowboy bill

SORROW- KIN was too good.

thelongdark

He was. And if the Oilers played the best defence they could the game is still probably lost 1-0. But those defence habits are not there.

Solly

I didn’t see an outstanding game from him…he was in the net and we were good at hitting him. Did he even use his glove hand? I honestly don’t remember him using it.

We make back-up goalies look like Marty Brodeurs.

cowboy bill

Sorokin isn’t a backup .

Solly

I’m well aware he’s the starter. Anointing him the savior for the Isles tonight as the reason they won is way wrong.

We hit him with pucks…that’s all.

Scungilli Slushy

The quality of shots was truly weak

He just did normal goalie things

JimmyV1965

How many Grade A chances did we get before the final period when the refs gifted us three PPs in 10 minutes. I’m not thinking a whole bunch.

winchester

oilers off to the bakery

godot10

McDavid and Draisaitl have to commit to backtracking as hard as they attack. It means fewer minutes, because they “rest” on the backtrack.

thelongdark

Isn’t this exactly what started the turn around last year?

Bank Shot

Draisaitl could probably ease up on the 3-5 egregious giveaways every game as well.

I would have benched him about 10 games ago. The fact that he doesn’t think he needs to care about puck management because he is McDavid’s sidekick is sickening.

flea

Maybe they are just tired from chasing the game consistently.

This team showed some mental fragility last year too, showing it again. Constant meh starts doesn’t always go your way. They said something tonight I thought was interesting. 17/20 games the Oilers have taken the first penalty. That immediately gives the opponent time with the puck on their stick and allows them to get more comfortable early in the game.

The team needs to make other teams uncomfortable, whether that’s physically or with high octane offence.

FWIW I only watched the first tonight, and I thought they played well. 50 shots on goal!

Ladainiantomlinson

Wonder whether they’re reverting to the “we gotta score cause no one else is” mentality. That was prevalent for quite awhile…as secondary scoring is hard to come by with almost everyone else, except Nuge, not able to piss many drops

flyfish1168

Bouch shots and passes are blocked again.

Munny 2.0

It was nice to see the coach give Holloway a whirl with 97 and 29 with 90 seconds to go there. I mean, why not?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Harbinger of things to come?

godot10

If the band is loose, it doesn’t matter how good the lead guitarist is. If the lead guitarist is the leader of the band, why is the band loose?

flea

Bass is the foundation of the band!

thelongdark

Username checks out.

hags9k

Besides the fatal flaw that they aren’t committed to defending as a team…
Call it heart, desire, passion, whatever you want to call “it” the Oilers don’t consistently play with enough.

innercitysmytty

Bang on and that’s been an issue for how long? The leadership group needs to man up and demand it of themselves and the rest of the team.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

There’s no accountability there man.

Nuge and Barrie gooned yo that shorty and I vetch both racked up another 8 minutes in PP time the rest of the game.

ManWood is already out of ideas 😉

Admiral Ackbar

They legit look like they have a hangover. We’re they out partying in NYC?

rich tm

They’re in a slump. Would argue maybe they didn’t drink enough last night.

Paulie

20 game hangover?

cowboy bill

Islanders not too worried about the Oilers PP.

cowboy bill

Hyman is starting to get crusty.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

0-5 PP

2nd unit with no seconds for the 5th.

ManWood needs to man up here. Gonna start messing with his dressing room with this sorta shit.

innercitysmytty

Put the second unit out here

SVR

Draisaitl for Karlsson?

Kert

Ew.

cowboy bill

Nuge doesn’t dust off the puck and off the crossbar .

Crazy Pedestrian

Oilers temporarily back in a playoff spot, until they lose this game that is

Crazy Pedestrian

Leafs broke NJs winning streak. Of course they did.

Last edited 1 year ago by Crazy Pedestrian
Paulie

Devils had 3 goals called back and made an incredible push the last 30 minutes. More effort than I’ve seen for the Oilers over the last 30 periods.

thelongdark

3 goals called back? How does that even happen. Oh right, it’s Toronto.

Munny 2.0

McLeod elevated for a shift with 97

Crazy Pedestrian

Doesn’t matter, the defence hasn’t changed

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

If you watch the Oilers as a comedy it is more enjoyable.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Another goose egg PP, another 25 seconds for the 2nd unit.

hags9k

I miss Kris Russell.

SVR

JP, Broberg and a first for Chycrun and a second

OriginalPouzar

Chychrun has 8 shots on net tonight.

Bank Shot

Pffft. Who needs him?

We’ve got Kulak the fancy beast.

Crazy Pedestrian

ARI is not going to take our underachievers. And they most certainly won’t be giving anything in addition (the 2nd rounder)

flea

I dunno that’s a decent return. Give a package another team could put together that would be better? I’m sure they’d prefer to trade him out of conference though.

godot10

One should trade Bouchard before Broberg. Broberg can skate, and is better defensively.

Munny 2.0

don’t know how Sorokin saw that second attempt from Barrie

Scungilli Slushy

I don’t think the team needs thugs

Yet I remain convinced that there are too many players that are passive by nature

McLeod and Foegele completely jacked up are about half as intense as a normal NHL player

This is a tough aggressive league. Players are mean and rough and assertive

Except half of our roster

Janmark is a great example. He plays with energy and gets after it and seems to understand NHL systems. Hollywood also plays with jam not so much with his head yet

On the first 2 Oilers we’re actually in photo. Near the scorer. The good stick tie them up thing not so much

Goal 3 was more traditional, completely blown coverage

Scungilli Slushy

Kostin also has been good

Scungilli Slushy

Also prefer Malone to Shore

rich tm

Team is in a slump. One thing goes wrong and a whole bunch of things go with it. Hopefully, we’re closer to the end than the beginning but this is plenty ugly right now.

thelongdark

Ok here we go we are really going to take it to them in the last 5 minutes of this game!

OriginalPouzar

Going to be an EPIC 3rd period comeback…..

Crazy Pedestrian

Nope, won’t happen. Watch NY trap them to death and score another goal while doing it.

Admiral Ackbar

This teams looks scary familiar to the dark days of Tippett last year…

teddyturnbuckle

Oilers forwards not coming back and picking up the third guy. If you are too gassed then change quicker.

dunterpunter

Stauffer speaking serious notes in intermission on Bouchard. Hell yes.

Loved the Petry & Schultz tidbit.

Tye

He also said something along the lines of “Campbell is fine, he just needs to settle in” but I couldn’t hear him clearly over the sound of my eyes rolling at the 1st part.

winchester

He must have been reading the blog! lol He was giving me the full Badger there.

Paulie

I switched to another game. Care to expand?

winchester

With Oilers, they can still pull out a win. Id like to see it.

But regardless win or loss, they are still playing beneath themselves in my opinion. I was not worried about the losing, as i have said repeatedly, they have the talent.

More talent than the Islanders.

Thats the disappointment.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Yea know I’m not sure I believe it right now frankly.

The lack of finish everywhere right now stunts my optimism. Hyman has missed so
many grade a chances, nobody else creates any. Shots not getting through, endless cycling six inches from the boards creating nothing.

When woody tossed out Ryan and Malone for a 4v4 folks should tilt their heads. Bizarre choice. Play your young offensively minded guys not two depth guys in the mid-30s for crying out loud.

Combine that with Nuge not having to park his ass after that pathetic back check on the SH goal and if I was McLeod I’d wonder what’s up.

Three straight coaches refuse to run a 2nd unit though. Maybe there’s something in a contract somewhere I’m running out of ideas.

winchester

They need more Ryan, Malone straight hockey

Tye

normally I’d agree, but the way they’ve been playing lately, I’m not sure TBH.

AMD

Guess you have toe the party line here.