Zach Hyman has enjoyed a good week and it’s only Wednesday. His three-goal game in Nashville on Tuesday night gives him 13-20-33 through 29 games. Hyman is a force of nature on the ice, an absolute nuisance with skill, and Oilers fans are running out of superlatives. He was key in the win, but his linemates deserve a mention.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- New DNB: If the Oilers can trade Jesse Puljujarvi, where is he likely to end up?
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- Lowetide: Oilers scoring prospect Raphael Lavoie reaching a crossroads
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is redefining his role
- DNB: The Oilers don’t need someone like Zack Kassian. They need more efforts like this
- Lowetide: Who’s Edmonton Oilers’ next impact recall and what do they bring?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner has been the Oilers’ saviour — and that’s not a good thing
- Lowetide: Analyzing Edmonton Oilers defensive pairings deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers look for rugged forward in a trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ young players providing a spark after a slow start
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- DNB: Oilers have a long way to go as defensive problems persist
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected (1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 4-3-0, eight points in seven games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 17-13-0, 34 points in 30 games
The Oilers don’t need a dominant December, but getting 19 points in 15 games (my projection) sets the team up well for the January-to-April run. Edmonton is now on pace to finish around 45-34-3, 93 points. That’s a playoff team. Edmonton is third in the division by winning percentage, and could make a run at Seattle with a hot December.
SUMMARY
- Leon Draisaitl scored 2-3-5, four shots and 64 percent in the dot. In 135 minutes at five-on-five, the Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman line has scored 14 goals and allowed six goals (70 percent). That’s 6.23 goals-per-60 at five-on-five. I know there’s overwhelming evidence the two centres should be split, but these are stunning numbers. Draisaitl is so dominant in games it seems ludicrous there could be a better player. Oilers fans are truly living through a golden era of brilliance, led by these two men. Leon played a complete game.
- Connor McDavid scored 1-3-4, including a truly gorgeous goal. He’s impossible. The captain had six shots, four HDSC and is now 26-33-59 in 30 games. Over 82 contests, he’s on pace for 71-90-161.
- Zach Hyman scored his first NHL hat-trick, which is a surprise because he is such a productive player who scores in multiple ways and in all game states. 3-1-4, six shots, seven HDSC, seems destined to be one of four Oilers who will score 20 goals this season. Or do I mean 30?
- Mattias Janmark had one shot on goal, two takeaways and drew a penalty. Had two clean PK minutes, too. He is an effective veteran, playing the Josh Archibald role (except higher up the depth chart due to injuries) effectively.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had an assist, two shots, one HDSC, took a penalty, had a takeaway and was 56 percent in the faceoff circle. One of my favourite players, he appears to be a lock for career highs in several offensive categories.
- Kailer Yamamoto fell along the wall trying to make a play and crumpled up like a cheap suit. Concern spread across the fan base, but he was up and going in no time. Timex watch, this guy. One shot, five hits, some worry about his health after that incident.
- Klim Kostin hit a lot of people and got involved in a lot of scrums, but it was one of the few games he didn’t move the needle offtensively. I think the Puljujarvi rumours signal Kostin is here to stay.
- Devin Shore had a shot on goal, a takeaway and got killed in the dot. His line sawed off the competition at five-on-five shots, and got some PK time (1:21) and ran a clean slate.
- Derek Ryan had a shot on goal, a takeaway, won three of six faceoffs and took a penalty that put the Oilers down two men. Effective on the PK in 1:52.
- Dylan Holloway was buzzing again, one shot, one penalty, three hits and won a faceoff. He’s in a dry spell offensively right now, but is around the puck often. Good sign.
- Brad Malone took an unnecessary penalty and won two of five faceoffs. James Hamblin is more effective, but Malone is bigger and hits hard.
- Jesse Puljujarvi had an effective night, including a shot on goal, three turnovers in the neutral zone to suppress sorties and two fantastic passes to McDavid for great looks. I’m going to miss him, hope he thrives in Anaheim.
- Darnell Nurse had three shots and two takeaways, took a penalty, blocked three shots, 2-1 goals, 75 percent expected goals at five-on-five. Faced Josi and the Forsberg line most often. In a game where the No. 1 line went off and the accolades rained down on them (rightly), I think it’s proper to acknowledge Nurse’s role as a mega-minutes defenseman who suppresses the other side. A fine night’s work.
- Cody Ceci had an assist, one shot, a couple of hits and a pair of blocked shots. He was effective against two physically punishing teams this week and is an importance piece on this roster. Played over five clean minutes on the PK.
- Brett Kulak had two shots, a high danger, a giveaway and a couple of blocked shots. Spent 3:28 on the PK. Effective.
- Tyson Barrie had two assists, one shot, drew a penalty and had a takeaway. He is on pace for 57 points this season, and is having success with Kulak at five-on-five.
- Philip Broberg had a shot on goal, blocked a shot and continues to improve.
- Evan Bouchard had an assist, three shots, several great passes and blocked a couple of shots. He’s such a creative player, and the third pairing is coming along well.
Jack Campbell won, despite the reaction on the first goal-against (if you watch the replay that was a much more difficult shot than it appeared at first blush) I thought he played well. Several analysts pronounced it a weak goal, I hope they go back and look at the tape. It’s important to be right, as opposed to loud. Campbell stopped all nine HDSC, he now has a save percentage of .875. It’ll take the rest of the year to get that number respectable but he’s not going anywhere.
JESSE PULJUJARVI
Plenty of rumours about Puljujarvi heading out of town, the Christmas freeze is coming so it has to happen soon or wait until the freeze lifts. The big man had an effective game last night to my eye, so there’s no need to deal him for a seventh-round pick whith half of the money retained. Ken Holland’s trade record is a lot about sending future assets away, but Puljujarvi is a now asset with a possibly long and productive future. I don’t think there’s a trade out there the general manager can win, that’s a time when a veteran manager would keep his powder dry.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day, TSN 1260 10-2. We’ll look at the win by Edmonton and what it means, and a possible Puljujarvi trade. We’ll also chat about the World Cup semi (France v. Morocco) and have the game live starting at noon. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
REID SCHAEFER
Schaefer made Team Canada for the World Juniors and that’s a helluva bullet point on a resume. This is a player who came from a long way back and landed at the end of the first round, and he still had to pass a lot of people to get this spot. A rugged first-shot scorer in a world where they have high value. Tyler Wright and his staff are on a nice run, Schaefer the latest.
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
1h
Not sure how many of you were watching Vancouver-Calgary…but Ethan Bear looked terrific tonight.
Happy for him.
Two minutes into the OT and there’s a shot on net
Canucks and Flames prove once and for all that keepaway is easy three-on-three but generating shots, hard. Dear Gord, I didn’t know they made boring overtimes.
Flames sure do like getting points when losing games.
Canucks finally put this game out of its misery. Flames collect another of their favourite points. The one they give to losers who lose.
The idea that the Oilers should have ‘maximized the asset’ (Puljujarvi) by trading him earlier has been floated a bit today.
It’s true that Puljujarvi could have fetched a 2nd round pick back when he was in Finland, and that his current trade value appears to be much less than that (we can use LT’s guess of a 5th rounder for argument’s sake).
As of today that’s a depreciating (depreciated) asset, no argument there. There’s still room for some recovery of course, but we can set that aside for now.
Even with that depreciation, I feel pretty comfortable losing a ~2nd round pick for what Puljujarvi has contributed to the Oilers over the last 2+ seasons.
We’ll see were this ends up. And it is a damn shame no matter how you want to divvy the blame. But even if this is all there is, I don’t believe Holland’s decision to keep his powder dry for the last 3+ years was a bad one. Puljujarvi may not have turned out as we hoped, but he’ll sure as hell have been (IMO) worth the $5.3M in total salary that he’ll have been paid over these three years.
I’m Holland’s harshest critic at this blog, or close to it, but yeah, I agree with you, there’s nothing to see here.
You can’t fault Holland for how he’s handled this situation. Instead, I might even allow some praise for Holland for how he’s managed a difficult set of circumstances.
You can’t even fault Chiarelli for drafting Puljujarvi.
When Puljujarvi dropped at the draft, I a was a little apprehensive as it was redolent of when Paajarvi dropped at the draft.
Both times, my friends were excited and I had the, ugh, are we missing something here that other teams are seeing feeling.
Well said, JP.
There’s a few possible scenarios. A pick of some sort is most likely. Maybe it’s a player, maybe a prospect, maybe a bigger deal, maybe to broker another deal. Who the hell knows for sure. But a betting man would have his money on pick. Cap space is a fairly valuable commodity to Holland right now, and if Anaheim is the target, pick seems more likely than player.
That hasn’t stopped my imagination from playing around with the other scenarios, lol.
The one I want the most is to stretch this out to the Kane return, but the recent appearance of Verbeek sure does not bode well in that regard. And the Ducks on the sked straight ahead…
Sounds like team health was how Holland was holding JP’s camp off, so now that Foegele is pretty much ready, he likely needs to get something done before Anaheim turns to another solution.
Yes lots of possible outcomes, and a pick the most likely.
I actually don’t think keeping the player (through the rest of the season at least) is a completely closed off yet either. It’s close, but we’re still not there yet IMO.
Also, if the return value is ‘cap space and a late round pick’ range, then I think there are lots of somewhat useful bodies even on the Ducks roster that could be returned in place of the pick.
Comtois, Jones, Lundestrom, Kulikov, etc. May not feel like an appropriate return, but it a trade is going to be made there’s arguments for those players over a late round pick.
markstrom 2 shots 2 goals against.
You love to see it!
Spencer generously gives it right back
Alert, contrary opinion warning.
Connor and Leon should play together at every opportunity. Whenever they’re apart they constantly look like their talents are being wasted on less than elite linemates. Connor needs Leon, and Leon knows exactly how to weaponize Connor. Glue them together and cobble together whatever else you can back on earth with line 2 and the rest of us.
leon and McD playing together should be the result of us being a good team
not the reason we are a good team
Forbes with the latest team values.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2022/12/14/nhl-team-values-2022-new-york-rangers-on-top-at-22-billion/?sh=3ac064bf7deb
Wow! Edmonton is number 7. Did not expect that. Thanks for posting this HH. For context, 5 of the top 6 teams are all original 6 teams and the other one is LA.
Operating income of $87 million is impressive. Edmonton is nowhere close to the customer sizes of the top 6 markets and its beating half them. Impressive.
JP for Comtois? Saves a million on the cap and sounds like both guys could use a change.
As I said last night, if he was a RHS I think that deal would get done. He’s not, though.
…but does he play his off-wing well? Can’t say I know a ton about the guy but the money and numbers add up. Not a lot else in ANA to pick though that they would want to give up. Klingberg is getting caved this year and doesn’t do a lot for me with Bouch and Barrie already on our roster.
Here’s a wild idea.
What about a deal around Gibson and Campbell?
JP + Campbell for Gibson?
That is a wild idea, man.
Gibson 1.5 years younger.
Same length of deal.
$6.4M vs $5.0M cap
SV% this year: .896 vs .875 for Gibson
SV% previous 2 yrs: .916 vs .904 for Campbell
Wild.
I don’t think anyone PKs effectively on their off-wing and that will be a consideration. There’s only so much cap space, so you need it to fill needs.
I don’t see how Klingberg, or Shattenkirk, are coming unless Barrie is going, which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. He quarterbacks a generationally good powerplay for $4.5M a year. That’s a value contract. I don’t see how he’s going anywhere.
People here just want to get rid of Barrie … for years posters here wanted a RHD QB for our PP just like Barrie. Then when we got him, they couldn’t be more impatient to get rid of him.
I for one am in no hurry to get rid of Barrie … he’s the perfect RHD PP QB for this team … and he’s better at it than Bouchard right now. He gives Bouchard a bar to clear, and he keeps Bouchard from racking up a bunch of points on the PP, which would inflate the value of his next contract.
This all day.
There are teams that could use JP and what he does well. Which is everything but score and PK (at the moment). Like Anaheim.
I don’t think he doesn’t ‘have’ value (especially on a one year deal) as much as Holland won’t ‘get’ value back
The Xmas trade freeze starts at midnight on Dec 19. I’m assuming when people who write about hockey say midnight on Dec 19, they mean 12:01am.
And as every knows we play Anaheim on the afternoon of the 17th. So there’s a post-game window of a little more than 24 hours where a deal could take place.
Could be an interesting Sunday.
I believe the Oilers also co-share the record for the trade closest to the trade freeze, but it was on the other side of the freeze… Kassian for Scrivens Dec 28, 2015 BC*, hours after the freeze had lifted.
*(Before Connor)
Before Connor–love it!
History has taught me that History should be arranged around McDeities. In the year of our Gord…
Connor was drafted in 2015, so on December 28, 2015 he would have been an Oiler.
Just kidding but maybe that oversight about him being on the team already was because Connor had been on LTIR since November 3, 2015 thanks to Brandon Manning and didn’t return until February 2, 2016 for the highlight goal against Columbus (McDavid knows how to make a triumphant return – ask Vancouver too). The Manning incident may have affected the thinking (rightly or wrongly) on wanting to take a chance on Kassian.
I thought of that but didn’t want to go there.
Yep, brainfart.
Sorry LT…when you said Pulu to Anaheim and a pick,I thought it was a done deal…MY BAD.Pulu has lately the local whipping boy.Why not increase his value by making him a PK player…long reach,long stick,big guy?Compared to Yamo,same goal scoring,,same contract,but bigger,lower draft pick,good defensive player at turning over pucks,but all fans are whining about the lack of scoring.The fans and media have chased many players out of Edmonton before..should not be Pulu.If we need to save CAP,Yamo is the better bet in my humble opinion….THX DOC EYE
For the record, I wouldn’t trade Puljujarvi.
100% agree with you.
Fun fact.
How many players have scored in the first minute of a game, scored a hat trick in that game and hit a goal milestone (multiple of 100) in that same game?
Answer: One
Not surprised. Kind of a very specific set of filters. If you take the hat trick out, how many then?
What town has largest square foot per capita Boston Pizza?
Answer: no one cares
Can we please stop with this meme that you can’t trade a player if there are worse players on the roster? As a math based blog, we’re better than this.
The Dallas Cowboys once traded Herschel Walker, the best player on their roster, and it’s widely regarded as the best trade in NFL history. And this was decades before the moron ran for the senate!
What is the asset value? What are the market conditions? What is the potential return? What is the cost of doing nothing? These are the questions that matter for effective asset management. If Jesse Puljujarvi is deemed untouchable because Dylan Holloway is on your roster, you’re doing this wrong.
Well said … all of it.
Danke schoen.
Who is saying that?!
My reading is ‘Puljujarvi has essentially zero trade value currently. Even in his current slump he is more valuable to the team than the meager return he’d bring, so it still makes no sense to trade him’.
Numerous posters have suggested this.
I don’t think anyone has said “you can’t trade a player if there are worse players on the roster“. Apologies if I’ve missed it, but I don’t recall it.
The main time other roster players has been mentioned in this context (to my reading) is to say ‘we shouldn’t give Puljujarvi away when there are numerous worse players on the roster’.
The value is in a potential deadline deal, or some other potential deal for which we need a bit of space. Maybe a deal for a dman eventually follows.
Or heck just a bit of space for when Kane comes back.
Also I think Holland is playing with house money when it comes to jp.
For sure, just addressing the ‘can’t trade a player if there’s worse players on the roster bit’, which I think is being mis-interpreted.
Yes, that is the value but that doesn’t mean he needs to be traded ASAP as suggested. My response to this top has always been qualified re: Holland having a need for that cap space – there is no current need – that likely changes in 2023.
2023 is eight trading days away.
Raises an interesting question.
If the Oilers don’t win a cup in the next two seasons, what do you do with a soon to be 30 Leona Draisaitl?
When it comes to the elite players in sports, they ultimately dictate their destinies now. Leon holds all of the cards.
I mean is this a real question? I would sign him for another 8 if hes willing.
Not every player is Joe Pavelski.
Most run out of gas by the time they’re 34-35.
I’m not sure it matters. When does the top elite tier tend to run out of gas? I feel like drai can go longer then many. He does not rely as much on pure athleticism.
I think the danger there is you run the risk of turning into the current Penguins but without the 3 Stanley Cups.
Evgeni Malkin might be a good analogue for Draisaitl in terms of style and size but I doubt the Penguins would have kept that band together if they hadn’t won when they were in their prime.
As it is, Malkin is signed until he is 39 but I doubt there is anyone who thinks the Penguins will be serious cup contenders in that time frame.
Surely the Oilers would want to challenge for a cup before breaking out the retirement contracts.
What are the Avs going to do with a 30-year old Mikko Rantanen or the Knights and a 30 year old Theodore or the Wild and a 29-year old Kaprizov, etc.
His epic playoff run on one leg makes me think he’ll be productive into his late thirties.
Kopitar, Pavelski, Malkin, Ovechkin, Crosby, Bergeron, Krejci, Wheeler. That’s a fair number of very high end to hall of fame forwards still going very very strong beyond their 35 birthday. Giroux and Marchand will join them shortly over 35 very soon. Everything about Draisaitl’s talent says that absent catastrophic injury, he is more likely to follow a career path similar to these players and if he has the drive to keep playing.
I’d add that Draisaitl will be 29 when his current deal runs out, so the majority of his next (hopefully) 8 year deal will be played with him under 35 anyway.
He has an October birthday so will turn 30 shortly after that deal would kick in.
Sure, and that changes what exactly?
You’re just trying to stir the pot with this foolishness. The Oilers will and should re-sign Draisaitl if he’s willing.
It makes him a year older than you implied.
Aging curves DO matter.
Every GM in the league would sign 29 turning 30 year old Leon Draisaitl to an 8 year deal if they had the chance. You know this.
He’s the clear cut 2nd best scorer in the league. 80 points clear of MacKinnon in 3rd since 18-19. The Edmonton Oilers will and should re-sign him if he’s willing.
Almost every one of them has won at least one cup and most were far younger when they did so.
My question was specifically what to do with Draisaitl if the Oilers haven’t won a cup in the last years of his current contract.
Do you double down on what hasn’t worked (see San Jose for reference) or reload?
Bear in mind, that Hyman, Nuge, Nurse and Campbell will also be standing on the cliff edge at that point.
Not to mention that Drai has proven to be able to play at an elite level IN THE PLAYOFFS while severely injured and hardly even able to skate.
No-one has stated the position in you first sentence nor deemed Jesse untouchable.
Some have responded to the premise that he needs to be traded ASAP and others have disagreed presuming that money isn’t being used concurrently. There is no roster player market for Jesse, of that we know. Removing him for the lineup means that, as of now, now only is Shore playing plus 1 of Hamblin and Malone but all three. That make the the team worse and gives them a lesser chance to win the next game.
If a team is willing to offer a 2nd round for Jesse, sure, make the trade as that’s a solid asset back. If the offer is a fifth, I don’t think its worth it at this point in time.
Yeah signing multiple 50 goal scored and a previous Hart trophy winner to an 8 year deal at age 29/30 is a no-brainer … not anywhere near the same level of controversy as your Canucks signing JT Miller to an 8 year deal after his only 90 point season, which starts AFTER he turns 30 … cause you know aging curves do matter, especially for non-elite players.
Aging curves matter for almost every player.
And signing a bunch of incredibly expensive veterans who have never won anything on the downslope of their careers is how you turn into the San Jose Sharks.
poster say it aint so gretz posted the next 20 games….
STL (L)
ANA(W)
NAS (W)
DAL (L)
VAN (W)
CAL (W)
SEA (L)
WIN (OTL)
SEA (W)
NYI (OTL)
COL (L)
LAK (W)
ANA (W)
SJS (W)
VEG (L)
SEA (W)
TBL (L)
VAN (W)
CLB (W)
CHI (W)
I can see this team having a 39-19-2 record at the 50 game mark. seems fair??? the schedule is preeeetty soft for the next 20 games.
Presumably you meant 29-19-2 ?
Lowetide’s ad embeds offering me adults only photos of Miley Cyrus’s 18+ ex girlfriend.
Gord give me strength.
That says more about your browsing history than it does about LT’s ads 😝
I see it more as Google pulling out the nuclear option on a site who’s demographics likely skew male dominant.
The ads you see reflect your browsing history.
My browser cache and cookies are cleared regularly. When an ad service lacks browsing data, they resort to testing different approaches to build an initial dataset.
I won’t argue this isn’t an effective approach for me. If liking pretty women is wrong, I don’t want to be right.
Well amen to that.
Thanks for clarifying that for everyone. I am tired of the typical response when the topic comes up.
Ok honestly I get my wife’s ads showing up. That being said it often leads to womens fashion and bathing suits. “It wasn’t me!”
With the Oilers in a money in = money out Cap situation, what happens if Kane is ready (we hope) to come off LTIR in February/March? Will the Oilers need $5.125 million in Cap space to move him to the active roster or would it be a prorated number based on games remaining?
The short answer is we would have to revert to a 20/21 man roster again. The extra “cap space” that was created when he went on LTIR will go away and we’ll be back to the Klef/Smith LTIR reserves and we’ll be close to the bone again
Until playoffs. May have to squeak in cap wise. Hopefully they create clean air points wise.
The practical answer has been provided below – technical answer is, nope, no pro-rating, the amount we can go over the cap will reduce by $5.25MM.
Thanks for the clarity.
It would be very strange seeing Puljujarvi in a Ducks jersey against us
Far less strange than seeing Gretz in a St Louis Blues jersey, or Doug Weight wearing a Canes jersey in the SCF
I can tolerate Puljujarvi playing for Dallas Eakins lousy Anaheim Ducks
So at the risk of getting way too far ahead of myself lets take a look at the next twenty opponents.
STL
ANA
NAS
DAL
VAN
CAL
SEA
WIN
SEA
NYI
COL
LAK
ANA
SJS
VEG
SEA
TBL
VAN
CLB
CHI
You can run up the score against – NAS,VAN, ANA, SJS, CLB, CHI.
Defense isn’t the hallmark of SEA or STL. Three tilts against SEA is bigly for Team.
Tight games should be – DAL, CAL, WIN, VEG, NYI, COL, LAK, TBL – If I had to pick I think higher scoring affairs against NYI, LAK and TBL.
We should mentally prep for a run at 50 in 50. Should almost expect 100 in 50.
Both might happen faster.
This is some kind of exciting wow.
Has anyone really looked at McDavids career stats? If he scores 100 more this year he’ll finish his 25 year old (8th) season at about 850 points. In there are a rookie season, a half season for injury and two pandemic shortened seasons.
Is it reasonable to suggest his next 8 seasons ending with his 33 year old season, will produce another 850 points? This allows some room for offense sliding and some injuries.
He’d then start his 34 year old season with 1700 points and inside the top 100 all-time.
What if he plays 8 more including his 41 year old season?
At the current pace he’ll crack 1,000 next season.
He’ll have done it faster than anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux.
McD is even more impressive when you consider the quality of his teammates.
The Gretzky Oilers and Lemieux Pens were stacked teams.
Outside of Drai, I do not think Connor has had any HOFer teammates.
GRIFFIN REINHART
TY RATTIE
MARK LETESTU
Every so often I like to look at where McDavid is in the all time scoring leaders, some of the names he’s passed and who he’s likely to catch in the near future.
In the last couple weeks, McDavid has passed:
Miroslav Satan
Scott Niedermayer
Mathieu Schneider
Russ Courtnall
Bobby Holik
Olli Jokinen
David Krejcí
Guys he is very likely to pass by the end of the season include:
Pavol Demitra
Todd Bertuzzi
Sergei Zubov
Rob Blake
Pavel Bure
Claude Lemieux
Alexei Yashin
Thomas Vanek
Ed Olczyk
Jamie Benn
Brent Burns
Marian Gaborik
Brad Marchand
John Leclair
Stephane Richer
If he keeps up his current, ridiculous pace all year, he will pass such names as:
Jeff Carter
Bernie Geoffrion
Doug Wilson
Saku Koivu
Ryan Smyth
Gary Suter
Ted Lindsay
Bill Guerin
I love this idea – some of these guys are still playing too.
They are! Fun fact, Connor has long since blown past Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin.
And Nathan Mackinnon!
“It’s important to be right, as opposed to loud.” Certainly a statement that is true for many topics these days.
It really makes me wonder about the people who don’t care that they’re wrong, just as long as they’re loud.
Yeah it’s pretty sad actually. Facts be damned!
TWITTER says Hello.
Spector wants to trade a first and a prospect for Edmundson. Does anyone know why? Sounds awful to me.
A third pairing D for a first / plus. No other team would, but…
Florida?
But Ben had cache!
I think because it’s confusing when he plays the Oilers and the announcer says “Edmundson” but you hear “Edmonton”.
Yeah all of those years we missed the playoffs, I remember hearing his name during the playoffs was the next closest thing.
Has Spector ever been right about anything?lol
He once ordered a beer in a pub. By all accounts, it was the tastiest beverage on the menu.
Hahaha
not surprising given it’s Spector. That would be an abomination of a trade. Chiarelli territory
Why not add Savard to Edmundson? Then we can bring in two replacement level D’men from the Habs and add $7m to our salary cap!
Interesting to follow up on the summer goalie options.
I’ll post more later.
There were roars of laughter here when the Leafs acquired Matt Murray. He’s been injured already this season. He has a $4.69 m cap hit for two years. They also got a 3rd and 7th round pick from Ottawa.
He has 10 gp with a .926 and 2.5 GAA.
Captain Jack current is at an .875 with 4 gaa at 14 gp.
The Leafs also signed Samsanov who has 11gp, .939 and a 1.70 GAA. $1.8m x 1 year ending in RFA.
gotta run.
I do not disagree with your theories about goalies. I agree with the premise that one should not sign 30+ goalies to long-term deals.
That said, a ten-game sample size is basically meaningless to evaluate the summer signing.
Matt Murray was AWFUL for the past three seasons with two different teams. It is great that he has turned his game around to start the season, but if Holland had made the same move you/Oilers fans would have pilloried him. Based on publicly available information, it was a very risky trade.
You said that you disagreeing with my theories about goalies, which one?sorry misread.
My premises about goalies.
In a summer bereft of any clear options for a starting goalie, smart teams tried to lower their exposure on contracts. We went long an over 30 goalie with a limited track record and it turned out to be a train wreck.
“You said that you disavowing my theories about goalies, which one?” – I do not know what you mean. I agree with all your premises about goalies.
I am not sure what your point is re: the success of Murray and Campbell so far this season. The sample size for both players is basically meaningless. The Campbell contract is brutal regardless of his play so far. The Murray trade was and remains a big risk.
Are you implying the Murray trade was a “smart” move?
Here here. I was one of the small minority that suggested Georgiev was a better target/add than Campbell but of course that argument ran up against the recency bias assessments of a single season save percentage. It’s still early days but the Campbell signing had considerable risks for those willing to put down their fanboy hat and look for the red flags.
I’m still hoping Jack will turn it around in time to be the better goalie come playoffs. Confidence seems a massive factor with this player.
From Puljujarvi to Campbell though, I think we underrate the impacts of groupthink that communities such as this can foster. We’re critical thinkers yes, but we’re also fans that want to see the team do well. That motivation can lead to folks being more biased and less critical than they otherwise would be with a team they don’t root for.
I like seeing posters here taking divergent opinions and being encouraged in that effort. Honestly, that’s probably one of the features that first drew me here. Imo that is a far more preferable outcome to alternative takes being quickly turfed because they don’t align with consensus popular opinion.
Suggesting Puljujarvi should have been traded long ago to maximize the asset value is proving to be the correct call now. And it was a minority opinion that was consistently shouted down by a majority consensus that seemed more influenced by rooting interest projection than actual bottom line production. There’s something to be learned from that dialogue should we care to consider it more fully.
The thing with Campbell is that he has a pretty significant record of long stretches of poor play interspersed with stretches of being good to great.
That was pointed out at the time of his signing but was quickly shouted down.
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
Jack Campbell is inconsistent to say the least. Last year he was really incredible, exceeding expectations. That shows in his weighted GAR numbers. This season he’s fallen way back down to earth and has one of the lowest Quality Start % in the NHL. #Leafs
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1225267249570775040?s=20&t=83GEWZEqLLAtRK1qmEsi3g
Note these tweets are from before there Oilers signed Campbell.
Agreed. He developed by sundial as well playing only 1 game for the team that drafted him (red flag) and it should also have been of more concern that his numbers last season came backstopping a very strong offensive team in the Leafs (red flag). A weak playoff resume as well (red flag).
There were more red flags than a Chinese May Day parade.
First and foremost that the Leafs wanted no part of a new contract.
But, given the early signing it appears Holland was locked in on him as a target.
I think JP will be a player with a larger impact than his points, but it can’t be with the Oilers because of his head and his contract now
A better management group might have been able to do something earlier
There aren’t many of those granted. I just wish our team could go back to leading the pack there, long time ago
I’d be more concerned about this if all the players you ragged on as bad bets around this time last season (Ryan, Keith, Smith) hadn’t turned out A-OK.
And as already noted, the sample sizes for all the numbers for this season are tiny.
Perhaps this is much ado about nothing?
I’m not sure what your point is here?
Keith retired and we dodged a bullet.
Smith went on LTIR.
Are you suggesting Holland knew ahead of time that Keith would retire and Smith would be on Robidas island or that he got lucky?
If we still had Keith’s cap hit, we’d be in a world of cap trouble though maybe we wouldn’t have signed Campbell.
I admittedly thought Ryan was finished last year, but he had a resurgence at wing to close out the year. This year, I think by some measures he’s at best borderline replacement level.
At roughly this point in the season last year you were very down on those three bets by Holland.
As the season progressed it became clear that you’d judged all three of them far too harshly and/or early. On the season as a whole all three proved to be worth at least in range of their cap hits.
Applied to the current situation, perhaps rather than worrying the 30-year-old goalie hire fell off the cliff over the summer before playing game 1, we should expect the guy who had a career .916 SV% when he signed to recover near those levels sooner than later.
Apparently not though.
I think Holland knew Keith might retire. But no way it was a given.
I think he thought smith would be our 1a this year.
I think every goalie we have signed in the last 5 years would look better on some other teams. Our d could use some improvements.
If Smith wasn’t on LTIR he’d be partnered with Skinner this season and we should note that Smith was 15th in save percentage last year, tied with Demko, and, over the course of the last two seasons, he was 7th in save percentage, a mere 0.001 behind some guy in Tampa and Swayman, 0.003 behind Sarros and 0.004 behind Sorokin.
Would have been one hell of a tandem and the perfect one-year stop gap for Skinner which many hoped for.
Smith couldn’t stay healthy. You need the veteran to be able to play.
As it turns out, there is a young kid with a moustache that is ready to play many games and lighten the load of the veteran, and hold the fort when the veteran isn’t available.
OP – even the most wildly optimistic Oilers fan wouldn’t have predicted this start for Skinner.
Smith was like a broken down Undertaker being trotted out for one more Wrestlemania. The heart and mind were willing, but the body clearly was not.
Campbell was not a bad bet, and he can easily rebound. Just take a gander at Markstrom this year. There is a lot of variance in goalie performance, much of which can be attributed to puck luck. Go back and watch the goals scored on Campbell this year … the majority involve him being screened or the puck being tipped or Svechnikov, who seems to have his number the way that Draisaitl owns Nashville.
Its WAY to early to be getting down on Campbell particularly since you were the one who defended Koskinen to the bitter end.
There was some that wanted a one-year stop gap veteran to pair with Skinner to see how Skinner did and what it looks like we have.
There were some that compared Skinner’s post-draft development year over year to Husso and posted about a chance he could have a Husso-like pop.
My post wasn’t a response to Campbell or his play or Holland’s signing – it was a response to the posts about the Keith/Smith bets.
Posters talk of splitting up the best line in hockey. They don’t say that in Toronto or Boston.
We wouldn’t be saying it if we had Boston or Toronto’s record.
In games with CMD + Drai together, the Oilers w% is pretty close to Boston and Toronto…
Lets count the beans at the end of the month?
Very confident Oiler fans will be pleased by that time.
McDavid Totals on Dec 31st 36 – 45 – 81 points
Leon Totals on Dec 31st 30 – 40 – 70 points
Hyman and Nuge will both crack 45 points
Oilers will be four back of Vegas and five clear of Seattle and L.A.
sure they do. Boston split up Marchand-Bergeron-Pasta this season.. believe Hall has been carrying their third line as of late too.
Depth, it’s a thing.
Before we lost 4 top 9 F Connor and Leon basically played all of their time apart. Even the Kane injury did not result in them being put together. Depth is a thing and when we have it (aka no injuries) they play apart. When those teams lose 4 top 9 F let’s see if what they’re depth is like. We have the depth of those teams when healthy.
when was the last Leafs game you watched? Exactly.
Bob, through taking calls in the 2nd half hour:
–Oilers need a RHS forward who can PK and add some finish, similar to Goodrow, Paul, Hagel acquisitions by TBL etc
–Would only spend the 1st on an jmpact 2LD with term or a lock to re-sign,. but doesn’t know if that deal is out there. Wouldn’t trade for Chychrun and Edmundson doesn’t move the needle enough
RHS on the PK is actually a big deal. There’s a reason why we see so much Ryan and Hyman out there. RHSs are far more important on the PK than the PP because of stopping cross-seam passes and quicker, easier digs on the boards. Some redundancy here is pretty important. Even better if he can win face-offs.
Interesting Puljujarvi is RHS forward. Yet they don’t use him on the PK. Maybe they should see if he can win a draw, before they move him. He might be a valuable fourth line center that PK’s.
He has never played centre and never PK’d … you want to take a player whose confidence is shattered and play him on the 4th line in a role that he has no proven aptitude for?
After 30 Oilers games
Top 10 WC Bettman 500 Leaderboard
+12 VEGAS
+9 Winnipeg,Dallas
+7 SEATTLE
+5 Colorado
+4 Minnesota, EDMONTON
+3 LOS ANGELES
+2 CALGARY
.500 Nashville
It seems likely Ovi will catch Wayne’s goals record. Nobody calls Wayne the best goal scorer of all time, but he had the most.
It’s never really sat well with me that Ovi seems to be being granted the mantle of GOAT. So I looked up some stats to satisfy myself.
OVI
GWG 124
OT GOALS 25
PP GOALS 292
SH GOALS 5
SH% 12.9
ES GOALS 508
ES G/GM .389
GOAL / GM .613
WAYNE
GWG 91
OT GOALS 2
PP GOALS 204
SH GOALS 73
SH% 17.6
ES GOALS 690
ES G/GM .464
GOAL / GM .601
I would say that how the two were used by their teams was different. Wayne drove the offensive bus, and of course was used a lot and to score, but he drove the offense, was the creator of it.
With Ovi, the Caps focus on setting him up because he can finish. They are really doing that now it seems so he can go for the record, fair enough. Wayne set up the players he played with, the team focus was never about setting him up, he took care of that himself.
So it looks to me like we could say Ovi is the better ‘clutch’ scorer ‘overall’ with the OT and GWG stats. Although Ovi didn’t win 4 Cups and Wayne has more important goals, if winning the Championship matters. It does when we’re talking GOAT to me.
And if EV Strength production matters more as it’s harder to do, Wayne has the edge with .464 ES G/GM to Ovi’s .389 and in ES Goals by a lot. Wayne also has the better SH%.
‘But goalies sucked then’, yes, but the much smaller Wayne was shooting with a wooden stick not a high tech jobbie like now. Wayne would have benefited more from the better tech IMO as it amplifies the shot for those without a good one, Wayne’s wasn’t powerful but super accurate.
For me Ovi will have the most goals of all time, but this way I don’t see him as clearly better than Wayne. What about goals adjusted for era?
From the Hockey Reference adjusted goals for era stats:
Top 5 Adjusted G/GM, and Career SH%:
Mike Bossy .76 / 21.2
Mario .75 / 19
Pavel Bure .62 / 14
Ovi .61 / 12.9
Wayne .60 / 17.6
Wow. Wayner tumbles down! I have thought over time Mario was the most gifted offensive player since forever, Wayne the best player overall, partly because he played long enough. Although the madness Bobby Orr pulled off would make me consider him if there was ever a convo about GOAT, at least for modern era players.
But from all of this, it seems to me that while Ovi will likely become the highest scoring player of all time, Bossy and Mario are the greatest scorers of all time. Pavel a bit of a surprise.
For me based on adjusted G/GM and sustaining such high SH% which to me infers talent and skill. Using twigs not carbon fibre.
Screw goal totals. I’ll stick with The Rocket.
Ovechkin is a linebacker on skates. A physical specimen who cannot be stopped. But back in the day…players like Richard had to live in the “real world” moving their own furniture on Saturdays etc.
And no one compares to Gretzky, save Mario at this point.
Good analysis. Fun read. One thing Ovi definitely has over Wayne is his physicality. 8 is an absolute load for Dmen to contend with and he punishes players when he hits them.
Gretz was a step ahead of the competition. But when he started to lose that step that made his play anticipation so effective, his stats came back to Earth. Alex can park on the hash marks and unleash howitzers for another half decade. This style of game sets up perfectly for consistent production and longevity which is essentially what the goal scoring record is.
I’ll be disappointed to see the record pass from the Great 1 to the Great 8 but it won’t diminish Gretzky’s legacy for me. The boy from Brantford made those around him better as the lynchpin for one of the greatest dynasties ever. At the end of the day, it’s a team game and Ovey can’t touch the combination of individual and team success that Wayne sustained.
Add to this:
Gretzky leads all time playoff goals as well – 122 (and 24 playoff game winners)
Ovechkin is 14th I think at 74 goals (10 game winners)
50 goal game in the 2nd season in addition to 95 more to go in the regular season.
He saved his GWG for when it counted!
Fun thing is Gretzky is probably the most excited for Ovi and has said on many occasions he’s a much better scorer than he ever was. Standard humble 99 aside it’s 100% true. Wayne can sleep easy knowing the 1000+ points he has more than anyone else isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Thanks
Ovi is a beast. I used to be put off by his head hunting and the league letting him blatantly, and not within the rules, destroy the unwitting
I still would be if he still did it, as much
Wayne changed his game as opponent defenders had. Remember Gretzky set up so many players from behind the net. Wayne was always pass first then he was I have to shoot to keep the opposition from overplaying the pass. Remember teams would put a shadow on (Steve Casper) among many and we all know how Gretzky adapted to that strategy. Ovi on the other hand has never really changed his game as well as being basically injury free. For me the Greatest pure Goal Scorer ever was Mike Bossy.
That’s what the adjusted numbers say to me as well
While Gary Suter shortened Wayne’s prime, he was extremely durable during his career as well. Played close to 80 most seasons.
I am still anti-Suter for that and his other egregious take outs
Still 95 goals to go to take the mantle.
I won’t bet against it, but Ovechkin is already 37. Him getting another 95 is no sure thing.
At this current rate of production he should score another 33 this season leaving him 62 short.
Two more seasons, seem like a reasonable expectation.
If he can maintain the current rate is key. He’s done it for a long time, but it won’t last forever. At his career scoring rate it should take 155 more games.
I hope. I would rather he didn’t get it so the GOAT scorer debate can go where it should
Same.
I also agree with you that Gretzky could have scored more goals if that were any kind of focus.
He has more assists than any other player in history has points, AND he’s also the leading goal scorer.
Damn close to pulling the same trick in playoff scoring too (except Messier has more points than Gretzky has assists).
He’s on pace for 53 this year. And he’s built like an NFL tight end. He could play till he’s 45.
I bet he scores 1,000 for his career.
We’ll see. Like I said, I’m not betting against him, but he’s got a ways to go still to pass The Great One.
Scungilli, thanks for this analysis. Since Ovi has been scoring a ton of EN goals lately, I thought I would compare his career totals in this regard to the Great One. Turns out, Ovi has 53 career EN goals or 6.6% of his total vs. 56 EN goals for Gretzky or 6.3% of his total. So no real significant difference here. If Ovi does end up breaking Gretzky’s record, I just hope #895 isn’t into an empty net.
Thanks – truth!
Career playoff overtime goals: Gretzky 4 Ovechkin 0.
Boom!
Thanks for this.
That difference in OT goals is interesting, – 99 would’ve feasted on 3 vs 3 OT – should count for an extra 30-40 😉
I wonder how many primary assists Wayne got on game winning goals?
Also between 1982 and 1985, Wayne scored 323 goals in 314 games. If people want to rant about era, that was 90 more (almost 40%) than Mike Bossy, acknowledged as one of the top goal scorers ever and still in his prime (only 28 in ‘85). Oh and Wayne did that while also recording 498 assists, which was also almost 200 clear (~60%) of the next highest total over those 4 seasons.
Sure Ovechkin might end up having the better goal scoring career, but for the 4 seasons where Wayne made goal scoring a higher priority (but still lower than just having someone on the team scoring) no one has done it better.
Good points
I forgot to go further than era to how much more he scored than his peers which really says more than adjustments for me. Same environment with the best players available.
And Bossy has adjusted best G/GM. Not exactly a slouch
No one is even close to as much better, although knock on wood Connor is potentially going to do some damage
Your last paragraph reminded me of a wonderful career video of Gretzky’s that was set to Carly Simon’s “Nobody Does it Better.”
Gretzky vs Ovie reminds me of the Jordan vs. LeBron debates.
Ovie/LeBron were/are dominant. Gretzky/Jordan were magical. A guaranteed highlight every night.
I count all of Gordie Howe’s goals. Alexei who? Wayne who?
You want to count the WHA, a clearly inferior league, then why not include all playoff games too? Wayne 1072 total goals, Gordie Howe 1071, with Wayne playing way less games.
Also KHL goals for Ovie should be considered then too.
Verbeek spending this much time on road watching a player he’s about to give up a “5th round pick” for seems a tad odd. Especially since the rumour is he was willing to trade for him the summer when there would’ve been no viewings. I mean Holland is a good raconteur and knows where all the best steakhouses are, but that seems hella careful for a 5th.
Is more than a 5th on the line? Is there a wider deal afoot? I don’t think we can assume so much just because Verbeek is putting the time & miles in, but my spider sense is tingling…
I imagine Klingberg is involved as they couldn’t make it work in the summer. We’re heavily linked to him and Jesse would be a prime candidate to be part of the move given his 3M cap hit.
We can’t defend. MOAR offensive one way D!!
Klingberg just doesn’t make any sense unless we are moving Barrie out and I’m not sure Klingberg is any better than Barrie on the ice, is WAY more expensive and isn’t a huge part of the room like Barrie is.
That only makes sense re: losing the $4.5MM commitment to Barrie for next season.
It’s not what i would prefer. The Oilers have been confirmed trying to get him in the summer. Retained salary. 100% doable on a 1 year.
This is all true, but he’s been really bad this season. I’d be very surprised if Holland circled back at this point to pay assets for swapping Barrie and Klingberg.
I don’t think they swap Barrie in the deal. Klingberg 50% retained is ~3.5 depending on when you prorate may be easier or involve another team. JP+ the other way is the easy part. Nobody’s been good on Anaheim. He’s had a track record of being effective with a button down Dallas team. I think his defensive chops are a little underrated here while reiterating this isn’t the move I’d make.
Perhaps. I think he’s also stylistically a bit different than Barrie. More of a puck rusher who likes to join the attack, which is probably why they were interested in the first place.
He’s been so bad this year, even relative to team though. And not producing offense either. His results have been pretty bad in Dallas for a few years too. I’d have agreed with you in the summer about Klingberg, but it’s gotten much worse rather than better this year.
Fair that a trade to another team is possible, I just don’t see net assets being spent for the privelage of switching Barrie and Klingberg at this point. Too many question marks and a major lack of performance this season to motivate a move to replace a popular teammate who IS producing at expected levels to this point.
Again, haven’t suggested replacing Barrie. Nor do I think that is the point of the move from the Oiler perspective. If anything I think it pushes Kulak down and Bro to 7D for the run. The domino effect is the upgrade. Not the route I’d go but it makes sense on paper.
Nurse-Ceci tough mins
Klingberg-Barrie/Bouch get the GD puck up to 97
Kulak-Barrie/Bouch this is a very strong 3rd pair on paper
We hated Keith when he rolled in the shop too. I’d have time for the player if the cost wasn’t dear.
Sorry, since Klingberg is a RD I assumed you expected to move one of the other RD.
Fair enough I guess, though I don’t think any of the three (Klingberg, Barrie, Bouchard) has experience playing the left side, since RD are rarely forced to do that.
I agree about the player for sure. I just don’t see a fit, whether it’s on the left side, or replacing one of the current right D.
We’ll see I guess.
TIL Klingberg is Right Handed. I didn’t want the move to happen and I don’t want it even more now.
Ha! Yeah, I really don’t think it makes sense.
LT said…
I don’t think there’s a trade out there the general manager can win, that’s a time when a veteran manager would keep his powder dry.
Strange framing since Holland is not in a position to do this. He has an unhappy player who doesn’t want to be here. He’s talked him into sticking out three years with the org, but that rope has run out. Act now or he returns to the Liiga or the SHL in the summer for nothing.
There is nothing JP can accomplish on-ice between now and the deadline that will earn Holland full trade value back. Now it is about mitigating the loss.
Absolutely correct. That 4th overall pick’s value peaked at the time of the 2016 draft. That the pick’s value has cratered since is due to the player failing to develop his skills to succeed in the NHL. Letting the players agent dictate that he start in the NHL right way was due to ChiaPet’s inability to think about what was best for the player and the organization in the long term.
But Chia’s been gone for a long time now and Holland has been nothing but patient with Jesse, even holding on to him through this summer at the loss of precious cap space.
Jesse wanted to be the star of the team and enjoy the trappings that go with it. But he hasn’t put in the work to become that playet – he hasn’t materially improved his skating and shot now 6 years after he was drafted. Jesse won’t remain in the NHL beyond this season, not when he can go back to Finland for better money and a role that lets him rebuild his confidence.
Is it accurate to say that the player is unhappy and doesn’t want to be here?
I think the player is unhappy with himself because he hasn’t been able to contriubute to the team as much as he wants or can. Maybe the word “frustrated” is better than “unhappy”. I saw him in the dressing room, days ago, smiling his face off as he celebrated a win with his teammates.
Moving Jesse out simply makes the current lineup worse unless they are using that cap space. In isolation, with the likes of Malone/Hamblin and Shore in the lineup, moving Jesse out does not help the current team, it makes it worse.
He requested a trade, Coop. That doesn’t speak to wanting to be here, or happiness. But whatever the correct word for his state of mind is, that’s largely irrelevant. But the trade request is.
And this isn’t the first time he has asked to be moved. At some point the GM is forced to cut bait and go fish. This season-in season-out rigmarole cannot continue.
We all know moving him is going to be a loss to the line-up, Holland even moreso. That doesn’t change the fact that without yet another change of heart, it has to happen. Mitigation is the only path available other than walks for nothing.
Is there a “formal trade request” out there?
Of course, there is an acknowledgement by both sides that a fresh start might be best, etc. but I don’t think the person/player is unhappy with the city, his team, his coaches, etc. and is coming to work every day being glum or anything like that, is he?
We all know that if, come Thursday night, one bounces in off his skate and then he bangs in a rebound, his confidence will sky-rocket and it will be all smiles. It won’t change the overall “mood” but, if he goes on a heater (like he has), it very well could.
Not saying he won’t be, or shouldn’t be, traded or that he’ll be here next season even if he isn’t but I don’t see an urgency unless/until Holland has another move that he needs the cap space for.
You had me at Waylon. Brilliant story behind how Billy Joe shaver managed to get him to take song.
As aside, if yiu haven’t watched “Mike judge presents: tales from tour bus” yet – yiu need to. Guarantee you’ll love it LT.
That is an awesome show. The wife and I loved it. The story of a drunken George Jones driving his lawn tractor in the ditch beside the interstate had us in tears laughing.
loved the one with Johnny Paycheck…very funny (true stories) and worth watching for sure!
I can see the starting playoff line now
29-97-56- with +60% shot share
91-93-18 – excellent 2nd line
37-71-13 – hard forechecking line
21-26-10 – lots of intangibles
25-5 – we know what we have
86-2 – elevated to 2nd pairing
27-22 strong third pairing
74 – why not
36 – I hope he finds his game by then
Reading today’s post, I realized that one of the key factors that has made Puljujarvi such a polarizing player is the consistent reframing of the narrative (ie moving the goalposts) on this player.
A rough recap.
He’s going to be a lottery pick worthy superstar
He needs time to adjust to the NA game
He needs to play with skill. The Oilers are screwing up his development.
He refuses to play in the minors.
His agent is the problem.
He’s an exceptional value contract.
Now that he’s playing with Connor, the points production is sure to follow.
It’s not important that he produces points. The fancies demonstrate his value.
He’s most definitely a top 6 player.
He’s more likely a bottom 6 player.
He could be a dominant checker.
He’s not particularly interested in reinventing himself as a checker to stay in the NHL.
A change of venue trade might be best for both parties.
Holland has to win a Puljujarvi trade or it’s not worth making.
When you look at the messaging progression, what you see is a consistent pattern of lowering the bar and making excuses for the player/prospect/bust.
Now, many of these rationales can and will be justified I’m sure. But it’s important to emphasize that lowering the expectations bar and making excuses for lack of production is not what high performance cultures like professional athletics do. This is very much a fandom thing.
Even in his recent interview, JP acknowledges his ongoing lack of production and frustration with same. What he’s asking for is a second opinion and Holland should give it to him asap as today’s frustrated player is tomorrow’s locker room malcontent.
Jesse’s sunk cost is immaterial to his trade value today. That is on Chiarelli and the scouts. Today, he is an unproductive 4th liner that’s been trending down the depth chart since Woodcroft arrived. He’s a flight risk to Finland. Trade him now for some other team’s unappreciated prospect and see if the change helps either player.
Trading him for something now is the win. Keeping the powder dry until he bolts for nothing is the loss.
Honestly, what’s the next narrative/excuse with this player? We can’t trade him cos he’s a nice kid that helped an old lady across the street?
I agree with the general premise of your post. I would offer that quality high performance cultures need to maximize the potential for their players to succeed. In reframing the expectations, I think the Oilers have considered all options for JP and it’s still not working out. They’ve done their due diligence with the player but patience cannot be limitless when you are paying $3 million for production. Even if he rebounds with another team, Holland is in win-now mode. I would probably keep him until closer to Kane’s arrival though. If he does wind up bolting, then the Oil gain max cap space. That might actually be the best result
The problem is that Puljujarvi at his absolute rock-bottom, 0-confidence, hopeless worst is still a better player than some of our other guys – and we have injuries.
By this logic, you wouldn’t throw out the expired milk in your fridge if you’ve got mouldy cheese and soggy cucumbers that are older.
What’s Holland supposed to do? Rank his players in terms of ineptitude and then trade them in ascending order.
The GMs has to view them as players, contracts and assets. The time to manage Puljujarvi as an asset is now (actually it was 2 years ago). Whether he’s better than Yamamoto or whomever else is immaterial to that decision. These other players aren’t forcing Holland’s hand with the veiled threat of flying back to Finland.
You’re just making another excuse why Puljujarvi can’t be traded which is kind of my overriding point. The narratives/excuses never end with this player.
Isn’t that the truth!👍
happens to “most” higher picks that may not deliver as expected on draft day. See Tyler Benson as another example.
The Narrative continues after OR if there is a trade … then if JP finds success, the “I told you so crowd comes out.”
Same thing happened with Nail Yakupov. The fandom takes over the narrative and it’s somehow the organizations fault that Yakupov couldn’t even succeed in the KHL. Completely agree with the o.p. that otherwise smart individuals have been lowering the bar and making excuses for these players … if Jesse were selected by another organization, it would be easier to view this player correctly without the copper and gold tinted glasses on.
Top ranked picks bust all the time, every year. The internet scouts talk these players up and amp up the expectations that we as invested fans have for these players. Which one of these fake internet scouts was on to Zach Hyman when he was 18 years old?
Drafting 18 year olds is an inexact science. It sucks when a high pick like Jesse busts on your team, but it is more common than we want to acknowledge … somehow it ends up being the organization’s fault, and never the drafted player. But most of these players simply do not have the drive, maturity, professionalism or whatever you want to call that unquantifiable quality that a Zach Hyman or Mark Stone has that allows them to come from obscurity at the draft to stardom in the NHL.
NHLE does not help you identify these players.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the premise of the post although I don’t agree that a trade needs to be made right now (or even should be) or that he’s simply an “unproductive 4th liner”.
On the 2nd part, no doubt he’s struggled but he’s already proven to be more than that, over a long enough period of time. Will he become a legit top 6 player that could produce 55 points? Maybe not but I think the prime of his NHL career has middle sixer/effective 3rd liner as a floor.
As far a trading him as soon as possible, as of right now, Malone/Hamblin and Devon Shore are in the lineup.
Sure, if the forward group is ever fully heathy and his play doesn’t pick up at all (unlikely to ever happen), he may be battling for the 12F spot but, as of now, removing him from the lineup, makes the lineup worse – end stop.
Sure, maybe the $3MM could be spent to to improve but, until that money is needed, and it likely will be, no need to rush a trade for the sake of it.
I don’t see him being a distraction within the room.
We have 4 players in the top 22 point wise without the Kane injury it would probably be 5 in the top 25. When’s the last time 4 players from the same team finished top 25 in the points race?
Last season: Rantanen, MacKinnon, Kadri and Makar were all in the top 25.
Thanks I thought it would have been in the Eighties. I would say it was a career high for two of those players.
Best example is Lowetide’s 1970-71 Bruins, who went 1-2-3-4 with the only 4 100-point scorers in the league.
Phil Esposito 76-76-152
Bobby Orr 37-102-139
Johnny Bucyk 51-65-116
Ken Hodge 43-62-105
Bobby Hull 44-52-96
…with Bucyk & Hodge mimicking the RNH & Hyman roles, with one crushing it on the first powerplay & the other doing most of his damage on Espo’s line at 5v5.
I loved that team.
you two make me laugh (in a Good way). I missed the Bruins years, too young – sorry!
I do wonder what Orr was like? and I think those Bruins teams were the closest to the 80’s Oilers for skill, style, sizzle and results. 🙂
Not, strictly speaking, true.
Given differences in GP:
P/GP
McDavid 1
Draisaitl 2
Hyman 26
Nuge 28
Both TBL and BUF have 3 each in the top 25 .
COL also has 3 but that situation is skewed by their injury woes.
Literally is true at this point in time. Don’t give points to people who don’t have them.
Can you stop with this crap?
Including Ehlers with 2GP and Cierlli with 5GP in the P/game leaders? Cooper Marody was a point per game NHLer last year too, don’t cha know.
Nichushkin with 10GP is plausible to include, but still a major stretch.
You sure love to pro-rate does this go back to your childhood?
https://defector.com/the-nhls-digital-board-ads-have-to-go/
I’m glad there’s finally starting to be some real pushback against the truly unbearable digital ads.
It’s so refreshing to watch soccer when there is an uninterrupted 45+ minutes of sport to watch without ads – and those ads that do run on the stadium walls are discreet.
Hockey is bad enough with the repetitive adverts at every TV timeout and intermission, watching these glitchy digital ads during the actual game is unjustifiable.
And funny enough, in the Defector article, they actually show some clips from Oilers-Wild in the 3rd period.
I get where you’re coming from, but as the devil’s advocate I’d like to be able to keep the band together for multiple cups. I don’t care where they place the ads, we need the increase in HRR to goose the salary cap to 100 Million.
Digital ads on the jerseys themselves!
Connor McDavid leads the Oilers to 3 championships: 2 Amazon Cups and 1 Saudi Aramco Cup.
and, per Bettman earlier this week, the league is making more revenue from the digital ads than projected – they aren’t going anywhere.
To each their own but they don’t bother me one iota – that’s just me though.
Ironic that the website link literally starts with “this blog is brought to you by…”
I know I am now wrapping my gifts in red.
One wonders when finally just finishing the distraction of Puljujarvi wanting out is worth perhaps not maximizing asset return in a trade.
I’m sure both Jesse and the team are very tired of it.
Considering how patient Holland has been even when the player bolted across the pond, I don’t think he much minds.
Feels like it’d be mercy at this point though.
Watching Fleury and you see how totally focussed he always looks…in position preparing to make a save. HoF future goalie.
Compare this to Campbell…standing around until the last possible moment then getting beat with a yawner between his legs.
I rest my case.
what case are you resting?
MAF – .895SV% this season. Always preparing to make a save, just not making many this season.
It’s times like this which expose my innate hockey lack of anything.
That said…
I suppose I just don’t know much about goaltending.
Campbell was literally standing around watching the play with the puck in his zone, with an Oiler player handling it yet when the opposition stole it he wasn’t seemingly so prepared as I’d like him to be. Perhaps the goalies out there could enlighten me.
Thanks in advance.
Another trade consideration.
Victor Olofsson – Buffalo
27, shoots left, but plays RW. $4.7 mil for this year + 1 more. Great fancies.
Games & Goals the last 4 years:
54 gms – 20 G
56 gms – 13 G
72 gms – 20 G
29 gms – 13 G (this season)
not sure if he’s available ..just a thought
For me if they want Nuge top 6 they need a definite 3C. McLeod isn’t a sure thing yet, and could play wing if he’s struggling. Or a better LD to play physically and defensively with the skilled defensively challenged non hitting RD
LT, who is the JP to Anaheim reference about?
Henrique? A dman?
I am no analyst, but a mere fan with opinions, and, in my opinion, that remains a weak goal – it may have been tipped, sure, but it was stoppable and, given the situation…… weak goal.
That’s not “right”, just an opinion, and others may have opinions that differ.
No matter who is “right or wrong” on their opinion, Jack did come back with a very strong effort. The second goal wasn’t unstoppable but it was far from weak, that’s a tough save coming across and a wicked release on that shot. Third one was of no fault, a ripper. Lots of solid to plus saves throughout.
Good game for Jack overall – can he build? He probably gets Saturday afternoon against ANA.
I agree at first glance it looks like a weakass Goal because it squeaks through him. Once you see the deflection on replay you can’t blame Campbell or any other Goaltender for letting a tip shot in. It’s like watching Baseball where the Catcher 9 times out of 10 drops a tip ball even if it’s ever so slightly and you think to yourself why didn’t he catch it. If you ask any Goalie what the toughest saves are and they’ll tell you traffic (screened shots) and deflections.
Agree 100%.
Actually catchers hold on to those tip balls for strike 3 more than they drop them. Sorry no stats to back that up, just years of watching baseball.
That’s because it is only a foul tip under the rules if it goes directly from the bat to the catcher’s glove. At a minimum of 80 MPH and only 2-3 feet between bat and glove, the catcher is not meaningfully changing the location of his glove in reaction to the tip. If the trajectory of the ball changes more than a couple of inches, he is not catching it.
I just wanted to clarify that the catcher does not drop a foul tip 9 out of 10 times.
I used to be a Goalie – and “a not very good one I will have you know”
Almost any shot that is tipped is difficult. Most of the saves that a goalie makes, he is on autopilot and if the puck changes course, even slightly, it is extremely challenging for the Goalie to react and adjust.
I would actually say that the hardest shot to stop, is any type of deflection.
Good thing the Oiler forwards don’t try to do that very often
Ex-goalie chiming in too … Tipped shots and screened shots are really hard to stop. Goaltending is so much about reading the play and positioning your body to be in the right spot to stop the puck. When a goalie is screened, they subconsciously move themselves into a suboptimal position in order to get eyes on the puck. A goalie like Vasie is so tall that they are really tough to screen, even when down in the butterfly. It also takes a ton of core strength to go down into the butterfly without letting your pelvis sink down as well, and stay upright and tall in the net.
When a puck is tipped it’s as if the net behind you suddenly shifted to the side by a foot. The puck is moving so fast that it doesn’t matter that you were previously positioned perfectly square to the original shooter. You can’t react fast enough when it changes direction to stop it.
A lot of the goals scored on Campbell this season have been on tips or screens, including the first goal against Nashville. He’s been going down too early on shots, but his tracking and positioning have been fine.
Dropping too early is usually a confidence thing, no?
Be nice to have a D that protected the house better, or at all some games
Yes – definitely a confidence problem. But one can be too overconfident as well (e.g. watch MAF this year). Goaltending is a razors edge. People got to remember that the difference between an average goalie and a star is about 2 extra saves per game. For me, a goalie that routinely lets in the first goal on the first 1 or 2 shots per game, is a bad goalie – one who is not dialed in mentally for the battle ahead. Right now Skinner is playing like a star, Campbell is playing at an average level (not stealing games, but also not the main reason for losing games), while Koskinen was a bad goalie.
Janmark is a very effective player. One thing he isn’t is dynamic (nor a real top 6 player). It would sure be nice if someone with more “skill” emerged to stop-gap Kane but its doesn’t seem like Jesse is going to get there.
Malone/Hamblin/Shore at center – hurry back Ryan McLeod – what an upgrade that will be.
Hopefully Foegele is back for Thursday so Malone or Shore can come out – Holloway can play center.
I’ve been a huge JP fan since the day he was drafted, heck our family pet is named after him. It’s definitely past time to move on for both team and player. I wish him success wherever he ends up, I was hoping it wouldn’t be a division rival though tbh. Still if he can be moved with the full value retained that’s likely huge in helping the Oilers acquire something more significant to help on the backend prior to the deadline.
Wouldn’t worry about divisional rivalry thing. By the time Anaheim is relevant in our division Puljujarvi will be playing in Finland.
We’ll have to wait and see what happens on the Puljujarvi front obviously.
I just came across some relevant stuff put into print from Friedman’s Monday podcast though. This was after the public interviews by Puljujarvi and his agent last week.
Seems like (as of Monday) Elliotte doesn’t think the Oilers are necessarily going to move Puljujarvi in the short term. Figured I would post since I hadn’t seen this discussed.
https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/nhl_rumors_on_jesse_puljujarvi_and_the_edmonton_oilers/s1_17076_38241763
I did mention that last Saturday when Friedman first reported it.
Yes, I remember that. This is more and continued talk by Friedman (asked to expand on what he said on Saturday) that happened on Monday. Presumably much of the same information though.
Friedman is less plugged in to what the Oilers are doing than most posters on this forum. Stauffer and Gregor are the ones to pay attention too.
The first goal was like lot of the goals against Campbell this year, imo. Not horrible but the puck found a way through him despite being in good position to save it.
Klim Kostin is a 23 year old player who was a 31st overall pick making $750K per year. Switching Kostin for JP seems to be a lateral move in terms of real (not potential) talent. Kostin also appears to be an easy guy to root for and seems thrilled to be here in any role. That also has value.
Its early, but if his performace makes JP expendable, I would take anything I can get just to get JP and the $3 million off the books. Money is too tight and we have some holes to fill.
I would think JP is traded as part of a salary swap to acquire another player. Although he has little stand-alone trade value, I would think most non-playoff teams would be happy to take him to offset the salary of an outgoing player. It should reduce the cost of such a trade because we don’t need a team to eat so much cap space.
time to split up Drai and McDavid. Gotta balance it out. i know with injuries it’s tough. But let Jesse stay bottom 6, give Holloway more of a chance with skill and run Nuge on McDavids line so someone plays defense (they sure do give up a lot. They outscore their own zone mistakes, and that is not a recipe for winning long term)
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Holloway-Draisatl-Yamamoto
Foegele-Malone-Puljujarvi (old school third checking line who will physically dominate)
Shore-Ryan-Kostin
Insert McLeod once healthy for Malone. Move Holloway down for Shore once Kane is healthy. And a healthy 4th line of Holloway-Ryan-Kostin would also have a chance to outscore, with Ryan the defensive conscience. That is solid enough. underscores our need for D, unless Broberg continues to grow with Bouchard in a sheltered 3rd D pairing.
If the coach won’t split up McDavid and Drai, he should put Hyman on the second line.
McDavid/Drai are 14-6 goals with Hyman (140 minutes) and 1-4 goals without (79 minutes) although greater than 50% expected goals w/o.
Hyman is the gift that keeps getting better and better. On pace for a career year. He has a tremendous motor, high skill and IMO the reason he helps the big boyz is he is great at puck retrieval, puck possession and cycling.
HOLLAND deserves major credit for this signing.
Janmark?
That is precisely how you win long term. There isn’t a mistake-free line in this league.
i don’t think he said there are lines that are mistake-free.
Nice game by the Oil. A few things stuck out with me.
Barrie and Kulak as a pairing don’t work well together. In fact, why Barrie of all people is on the PK is dumbfounding.
Baby steps with Campbell. I think he played well but there is a tentativeness about his play that makes me a little nervous. If he could string along a few wins then perhaps it’ll be enough to boost his confidence.
McD. That goal….good lord.
________________
With regards to JP, my hope is that whatever occurs with this young man both he and the team will benefit. For him I hope he gets the fresh start he needs. For the team they will be able to move on, hopefully learn from the experience, and rid themselves of the drama that has come over the last 3 years of playing him.
I came across this article:
https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-say-no-theoretical-erik-karlsson-trade/
Not sure if the article had been brought up recently but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.
Barrie and Kulak are funny. 11-6 GF 5v5 but 45 CF% and 43.79 xGF%. 1058 PDO with a 95 ONSV%.
Has Draisaitl played any RW?
Played RW with McDavid for a long time.
Yup, he was right wing on the McDavid line in the first McD playoff run (2016). The Big Rig was leftwing if my memory is recalling things correctly.
Leon lined up mostly on the right side of McDavid in last year’s playoffs as well. Kane and Hyman were their most frequent 3rd line mate as Jesse and Kailer were only out there briefly. Kane is almost exclusively a LW and we know Hyman plays both. It seems due to the issues Drai’s injuries were causing him in terms of movement he was more comfortable on the right side so Hyman lined up on the left.
As mentioned by LT back about Drai on the right, back when they played more together in the 16-19 time frame, Leon was more on the right side with left wingers such as Maroon and Lucic.
Draisaitl has a ton of experience at all 3 forward positions. It’s cost him some All-Star votes over the years because the Unicorn position is not recognized.
Ovie got voted in on both wings one year. What’s Draisaitl’s excuse 😉
My favourite Goal last night was Leon’s second there’s nothing more beautiful then the behind view of Leon turning on the after Jets. It’s like watching a Locomotive gaining and then hitting full steam.
That was a stomping , But when your top line score all your goals it is pretty sad. Injuries cannot come back fast enough and Holland needs to get some scoring help in the bottom 6 for sure. Be nice to get a really good 2nd line/ 3rd line C man. Horvat would be a great add but I doubt that happens . Guess we see what happens with Jesse 1st . LT. What or who do you think comes back from Anaheim for Jesse ?
Fifth-round pick, Anaheim takes the contract.
Oof. That’s about the wettest powder one can imagine. Basically just a paste at that point.
There’s some definite irony to Holland keeping his powder dry on Puljujarvi for three years and having the asset depreciate significantly in the end.
This. All the live long day.
Rode the market down
The bigger worry is player assessment. Got another one really wrong. They’re supposed to be good at it being pros, right?
A good assessment would have been useful player, but he wants to be top 6 and we don’t see him up to that at a high enough level because he can’t handle the puck and isn’t progressing in processing the game
A second is better than little where it ended up
There are those out there who think Holland would have to retain to make the trade without a sweetener. But if I’m Anaheim I do that, test drive him and if you don’t like what you get just don’t qualify, worth a pick.
Dang.
Are there any distant bell type prospects in Anaheim’s system you think the Oilers are/should be targeting?
They have this guy in the system.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/olli-juolevi
Sounds underwhelming at first but if the Oilers add a 3rd rounder to Anaheim’s 5th they may get for Jesse then boom it’s enough for a decent 3rd line centre at the deadline and they have the cap space to make it happen.
I read somewhere that Max Comtois is in a similar position in Anaheim. He’s underwhelmed on many fronts. Perhaps a flip?
IF THEY HAD TO GET RID OF 3 mil,why not trade Yomomoto?Smaller,no goals,easier injured,will have a short career,cannot do what Pulu can do.Why not Yamo???YUCK!
Barrie leads the team with 21 points no love for this guy. Almost hard to think of trading him !!
While I’ll miss Puljujarvi the person, I don’t think I’ll miss Puljujarvi the player. It’s just gotten too frustrating seeing someone with all those tools be effective but invisible.
It’s sadly just a numbers game at the end of the day. I love the Bison King too and wish him well, but he’s not worth the difference of having say Malone and Shore in the lineup over Ryan and Janmark when everyone’s healthy.
If you were going to give Jesse a break,should have traded him to CBJ,to reunite with Lannai.
You will get to watch Pulu start to light it up in California,while we watch Yamomend up on LTIR one of these days…bad trade overall,Son!
Pretty sure moving Jesse up with McD and Drai in the 3rd was to showcase him a bit for Verbeek who was in attendance. Do wonder when this goes down. Be very nice if they could wrangle a 2nd out of Anaheim ( they have 3) and not retain any salary. No clue what they get
That is one opinion but, in my opinion, it wasn’t to “showcase him for Verbeek” at all. I think it was simply a result of the Yamamoto injury and Jesse was having a solid game and was apt to ill in.
I don’t see, all of a sudden, in the 3rd period of a game that was still in question, Woody deciding to give Jesse a few shifts up the lineup for the benefit of Verbeek (and I don’t see Holland “calling down” to insist on the same).
Just normal game deployment decisions.
In my opinion.
Not a good time to trade Pulu when Yamo gets hurt.Bad move,Kenny!
Why are you bringing Yamamoto into the discussion? Yamamoto never missed a shift after his fall, and he played with Janmark-Nuge both before and after Puljujarvi was moved up.
It was Hyman who Puljujarvi switched with in the mid third. Hyman played with a mish mash after that including Ryan, Shore, Kostin, and was back with McDavid/Draisaitl for the EN goal.