It may not be obvious to the casual fan (like anyone who visits this blog is a casual fan), but the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues are connected in dozens of ways. Todd Ewen. Davis Payne. Shayne Corson. Curtis Joseph. Mike Grier. Chris Pronger. David Perron. Doug Weight. Nail Yakupov. The Blues current roster houses former Oilers Tyler Pitlick and Nathan Walker. Former Blues who will dress for Edmonton tonight? Klim Kostin. Ken Hitchock. Garry Unger. Hell Barclay Plager played for the Edmonton Flyers in 1962-63. Lots of connections, but these are two teams who appear to be going in opposite directions at this time.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- New DNB: If the Oilers can trade Jesse Puljujarvi, where is he likely to end up?
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- Lowetide: Oilers scoring prospect Raphael Lavoie reaching a crossroads
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is redefining his role
- DNB: The Oilers don’t need someone like Zack Kassian. They need more efforts like this
- Lowetide: Who’s Edmonton Oilers’ next impact recall and what do they bring?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner has been the Oilers’ saviour — and that’s not a good thing
- Lowetide: Analyzing Edmonton Oilers defensive pairings deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers look for rugged forward in a trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ young players providing a spark after a slow start
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- DNB: Oilers have a long way to go as defensive problems persist
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected (1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 4-3-0, eight points in seven games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 17-13-0, 34 points in 30 games
This is a winnable game against a struggling Blues team (3-6-1 in the last 10). I have this as an overtime loss, Edmonton lost to St. Louis on October 22 and won on the road four days later (Jesse Puljujarvi scoring in that game. If the Oilers win tonight, the record will be 18-13-0 and the team will be on pace for 95 points and a post-season berth.
OILERS OUTSCORING BY LINE FIVE ON FIVE
I like to do these from time to time, gives us an idea about how well the team is outscoring by line. The McDavid on/off results are interesting this year, and the McDavid-Draisaitl results are becoming a big part of the season.
- McDavid-Draisaitl together 15-10 (60 percent)
- Connor McDavid 10-13 (44 percent)
- Leon Draisaitl 13-18 (42 percent)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7-8 (47 percent)
- Ryan McLeod 7-8 (47 percent)
- The rest 6-6 (50 percent)
- Overall: 58-63 (48 percent)
The combination of 97-29 as the top line, Nuge on the second line and Ryan McLeod on the third line has the strongest numbers, and the fourth line looks good, too. The wobble in this group is early season McDavid solo and Draisaitl solo. Huh. McDavid solo has a PDO of 97.9, the main culprit a 6.29 percent success rate for Oilers shooters. Draisaitl’s struggles come from a goalie who is stopping 88.6 percent of the shots. I expect we’ll see a depth chart of 97, 29 and McLeod in the days to come. Who is No. 4 C? I think that player arrives at the deadline.
RUNNING HOT
The Oilers are 7-3-0 in the last 10 games, with St. Louis and Anaheim on the schedule tonight and Saturday afternoon. If both are wins, the team’s record goes to 19-13-0 in 32 games (38 points). That’s a 97-point pace and perhaps some breathing room and a solid hold on the third Pacific Division playoff spot.
The Pacific shapes up like this: Anaheim and San Jose are sliding into the ocean, no chance to make the second season. The Vancouver Canucks keep hanging around, winning just enough to stay within shouting distance of Calgary, Edmonton and Los Angeles.
The Oilers are the third place team by winning percentage, and a win tonight, combined with an LAK loss (to Boston) and a Seattle Kraken loss (to Carolina) would mean Edmonton’s 36 standings points would place them in second place. It would also put the Oilers one point up on the Kings for third place with a game in hand. Gotta keep on trying, until they reach higher ground.
DEVIN SHORE
Devin Shore is the obvious player to come out of the lineup when Ryan McLeod returns, and maybe he comes out when Warren Foegele is ready to play again. Shore’s season is kind of all over the place, sort of opposite Devin. His five on five goal differential is 6-3, 67 percent, best on the team among forwards. He isn’t scoring much (three assists at five-on-five, 0.88 pts 60) but the puck is miles from his front door when Shore is on the ice. Now his expected goals in the game state (44 percent) is low and his rel numbers are in the ditch, so running luck is a key component to his season. Regression lurks. I also find it curious Shore’s PK minutes have been more than halved. A fascinating approach to this player’s skills and I think his NHL career is on borrowed time. If that luck crashes, without PK time, what is he?
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day, four full hours and we’ll have Chris Johnston and Matthew Iwanyk to talk Oilers and NHL. NFL Thursday nighter and the World Cup Final preview. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
St.Louis pressured Nurse for a giveaway. It happens.
All Nurse had to do after the giveaway is the most basic of the d-man’s jobs: cover the sniper who is wide open in the slot. Stand beside him between him and your net with your stick under his. Any of our d-men (never mind our best/biggest/wealthiest) should be able to do that pretty much every time.
Nurse had a bad game. No doubt. And he’s capable of playing better, he will.
But the captain did not have a great game. Snakebit tonight. Many many bounces did not go his way, and he was lost more than a couple of times defensively. Got caught line changing but not line changing on the first goal. Missing from the slot on the second goal, which was the killer goal. And then losing the puck in the corner on the tying goal.
And those two weren’t the only two players. All three goals were scored on completely open looks.
The whole team, led by 25, 97 and 29, could use simplifying their game.
@SportsnetSpec
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24m
NHL Statement:
Video review determined that Edmonton’s Connor McDavid preceded the puck into the offensive zone without possession and control and, therefore, was in an off-side position prior to Leon Draisaitl’s goal.
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I understand how they made that determination as the defender did block McDavid’s stick and he lots “his rhythm” but, come on, practically, he didn’t lose control.
I think it should not have been deemed a loss of control on the basis of McDavid being the one to knock O’Reilly’s stick away.
If it’s the defending player knocking the attacking player’s stick away as he enters the zone, it should be deemed loss of control.
But McDavid whacks O’Reilly’s stick away to protect the puck. Maintained control the whole time.
Blues needed the point more. We were due for a loser point. Oilers will be fine. Next up Anaheim!
If it weren’t for the Makar horseshit call in the playoffs, I’d be 100% on board with that call. It’s the inconsistency that kills me.
In the Makar case, it was also deemed that he did not have possession though.
Makar was deemed to have “mini-dumped” the puck, allowed his teammate to tag up, then regained possession.
In both cases, the player was deemed not to have possession.
Darnell should sit in the pressbox for the next game. He was that bad tonight. I would personally sit his ass until he agreed to stop flopping down on the ice like a damn starfish.
I worry it’s coached. It’s been through two coach groups at least
Like the one hand on stick waving at players 5v5 in the D zone. Useless
Just take a body out of the play. That’s the problem with Darnell … he doesn’t read the play well. The starfish maneuver is akin to a goalie going down early in the butterfly … a panic maneuver.
If Nurse is still hurt or whatever, can’t handle having a kid (I guess Nanny’s and a separate bedroom or whatever are a bit rich for his pay grade), why play him so much?
Do they have no trust at all in anyone? Because he is not doing well enough. I don’t care about anything other than performance in sports (unless it’s a very serious issue)
Guarantee that HNIC’s 1st period segment will be all about McDavid’s comments on the reffing. He set off a bomb tonight and it was long overdue. Officiating standard has been slipping for quite some time.
Entertaining game. Wrong team won. The sun will come up tomorrow
Not making excuses for Darnell but given his play in some of the home games I’m becoming more convinced he has “fuzzy dad head” with an infant at home. He owned the tough night as he should
Wasn’t his kid born in August 2020?
I don’t have kids – is year 2-3 worse than 0-1 and/or 1-2?
They don’t call them the “terrible twos” for nothing – that two year old year can be murder.
They are all devils 😂 Wiki says May 2021 so still pretty young
Oh, that’s right.. I knew it was the day after the 4-OT game agains the Jets – though that was in the bubble but it was the next season, the sweep by the Jets.
Nothing to do with kids, Darnell has a shit hockey IQ…the guy who errantly ices the puck 10 times a game, and can’t ice it when he probably should have.
Well, that isn’t actually based in reality but OK….
Two goal lead with under 10 to play, then 1 goal lead in the final minute with a pp and get scored on short handed.
Nurse – turn up the good, turn down the suck. Your knobs totally cranked right now.
McD – after you lead the league in goals and assists please try to win a Selke.
Nurse owns the mistake and blames himself for the loss. Small consolation I know but better than ducking it. I don’t like the play but I do like the leadership shown postgame.
Leadership is on the ice, not the constant lip service from the big 3 that keep screwing up basic play
Leadership should happen on and off the ice imo.
I said I didn’t like the play. I also accept that humans make mistakes. Nurse has to be better. I suspect he’s feeling the pressure of the contract and that’s a situation he created. I think he’ll get a better handle on it eventually.
I hope so. For me we’re at the point the excuses have to stop with this team
The core are veterans. There is always something in your way or everyone would win the cup. I’m expectations are high bcs there are two elite forwards one of them whom is generational
Washington couldn’t carry Ovi not carrying his weight . With years of dominating reg season teams
We know how this goes and what is required
Darnell takes responsibility – Woody refuses to anoint any responsibility to Darnell even when Spec continues to go there.
I hope somebody can put up the Makar play side by side with the McDavid play.
I don’t think its the same though….
With Makar, they said he gave up possession of the puck (i.e a mini-dump-in) allowing the other player to get onside before he “regained possession”.
In this case, it was determined that Connor lost possession and put himself offside.
Both plays involve a highly elite player in full possession of the puck. Replay says neither possessed the puck. Damn my lying eyes.
Best take I’ve heard!
Makar pushed the puck ahead and waited for his offside teammate to clear the zone before touching the puck.
McDavid was the offside individual in this scenario, they deemed he didn’t have possession and couldn’t enter the zone before the puck.
Two different scenarios.
While I don’t agree that Makar actually did that (i.e. “gave up possession until his teamates cleared the zone”) that was the ruling and I agree it’s different than tonight’s situation.
It was deemed McDavid lost posession and then put himself off-side.
With that said, I also disagree with that determination as he it was a stick block by the defender that inhibited the stickhandle and he fought through the to keep the puck.
Rob Brown absolutely ripping everyone for the loss. Pointed out that it’s not all on Nurse, there were a lot of bad plays. Bet Woody says the same thing. There was quite a bit of stupidity out there.
Man, who gives a damn about the goal / no goal call. They completely shit themselves in regulation.
McDavid fed up with the reffing. Hope he doesn’t draw a fine.
A fine would be well worth it.
McDavid going off on the league in his post-game – “league needs to clarify some of these rules”……. etc……
Good. He can afford it.
He’s the best player in the league and they treat him like garbage. The league is actually restricting his talent…it’s pathetic.
The McDavid line was also super casual on the 3-2 goal. Hyman and McDavid not covering anybody.
see comment below
That’s the whole teams MO in the D zone. Casual. There’s a few that really fly that flag though
Putrid game by Nurse.
Putrid
Darnell Nurse is a big part of this team, and I believe his teammates value him highly. With that said, it must be pretty awkward in the dressing room right now.
Probably not. It seems there is no one calling anybody out or demanding accountability. In a good way, as good teams do
When you have a young locked up core that is seemingly cliquey, my guess is the rest just say what they have to and builds frustration. As Ryan expressed after Tipp got the pipe. Because the others pay the toll for far less
Leaders lead. Right now we hear talk and watch the core play less than they could overall
Right now there are 5 keepers playing by talent or contract, no one seems to be the locker room leader, 4 are constantly whiffing basic plays, highlight reel one offs aside
It starts at the top
I doubt it. Nurse took responsibility publicly and, truth be told, while his error was egregious, his captain was first to the loose puck, had time and lost a physical battle that also led to the goal.
If I have to accidentally hear Nurse talk about anything to the media (because I will try to not) I’ll puke
I am at the point where I don’t care what Connor Leon and Darnell say about their foibles
Just start effin doing it and lead the team. On the ice
You can’t lead the team to a better place if you are the most egregious, paid, and pay no TOI penalties for shit house brain dead defending
Especially when it counts most
ROR in photo making winning happen. The Oilers need someone to do that .Or have that stuff. Whatever magic dust it is
See just like I called it after the last game haha.
Idiots if they win
Idiots if they lose
Idiots!
Everyone’s an idiot!
Im sure lots of bloggers will threaten to stop watching to show how serious and exasperated and exasperated they are!
Hahaha
Lighten up man it’s a game full of twists, turns and let downs by guys scoring at rates not seen in 30 years. Whoops.
Shoulda won it, kissed it away, there’s always another game.
They’ll go and kick the shit out of Anaheim to make amends. 🥃
Afternoon game + on a Saturday + a lesser opponent = guaranteed loss.
Ducks just got their second regulation win of the year and moved their goal differential on the right side of -60….
Depends what you watch for. If it’s fancy skill plays you got it
If it’s winning a Cup you don’t. This won’t work and those that care about that know it, been watching this bottom of the league quality team play, inconsistency for decades
If I might say so
Binnington and Nurse were the difference. Nurse’s lack of urgency and awareness on the first and third goal seem as egregious as any of Bouches mistakes this season. Nurse has played several hundred more games though, I guess that’s the difference.
That turnover by Nurse just can’t happen. That’s a rec league calibre play by a 9M dollar veteran and it cost his team a win.
I’m interested to see what Nurse and McDavid have to say about that game tying goal shift in the postgame presser.
Soft plays all around. So you turn over the puck then proceed to stare at the puck behind the net and leave the net front wide open.
Then the patented unsuccesful star fish shot block. Quite the 4 seconds
Two out of three games McDavid’s lack of defensive awareness leads directly to a goal against.
Needs to tighten that shit up.
I believe the Makar goal was offside… but that McDavid play was 100% offside and didn’t have really any relation to the Makar goal as the argument was a “check up” play
And I agree. McDavid never had control of the puck as it crossed the blueline. ROR checked his stick and he never regained possession until a Blues player touched it.
We can whine all we want about about some mythical league bias against the Oilers, but the Oilers lost this game because of ANOTHER unforced turnover by Nurse and a very soft play by McDavid behind the net.
Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl were both sleeping at the points on the shorthanded tying goal. St. Louis had a 4 on 3. PP while shorthanded.
Woof. What an ugly ending to that one. Christ I hate shoot outs.
Culture of hockey grade Darnell 2
Miserable plays today honestly
Offside play doesn’t happen if you don’t blow a 2 goal lead in the third. This team is not improving. To me they’re the same team the last 5 years. Do they only care about their stat lines?
Tough loss. This team needs their injured forwards back and also a defence man.
JP is also lost out there. Take a bottom six guy that can kill penalties for him at this point.
Not sure if Foggy and Kane can help Nurse….but I like your optimism
Offside is starting to feel like travelling in basketball. Subject to referee interpretation.
That game is on one player – Darnell Nurse. Two giveaways lead directly to goals? How many others? Three. Talk about a lack or urgency.
He’s got to be injured. He’s a good defenseman that makes the occasional mistake, but he’s been abysmal this season in his own end.
Is his brain injured? Many of his mistakes are positional and situational awareness
I can’t get overly mad a the call given the work of Nurse tonight – my goodness man – if you are the unhealthy, well….
My god what an awful way to lose a game.
Hey first looser point!
Thanks Darrel.
That is disappointng. LT did call a loser point tonight FWIW.
Ya he did damned to be right
First loser point. I am sad.
Bush league garbage.
Need a save from Stu here
Yes!
Well whatever happens, this has been an entertaining game.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Stuart Skinner
Dear Gord
So if McDavid doesn’t control that puck is O’Reilly committing interference? I swear the League just hates the sport
But the real culprit on the tying goal is Holland. There is no way that Nurse should be playing that much. Need to get a LHD
“Paying”
Woody should call a TO to rest 29/97
I was going to post the same thing. I would’ve called the TO.
Fuck this league.
The Cale Makar standard does not apply.
This fucking bush league…
Refs giving the absolute best effort of taking the game away from the Oilers.
Lol, fuck that bs.
Dammit!!!
That’s onside if you play for Colorado.