Missed Opportunity

by Lowetide

These are the Oilers rookies for the 1989-90 season. That’s the last time Edmonton won Stanley. Geoff Smith was the last Oilers draft pick to come through the system and get his name on the Stanley. Martin Gelinas was a piece of the Gretzky trade and Vladimir Ruzicka came over in a 1989 deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Oilers 2022-23 rookies are Stuart Skinner, Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. Markus Niemelainen and James Hamblin are also rookies this season. This group might have some long-term impact for the organization, and it’s possible they win Stanley as NHL rookies.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected (1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
  • December actual result: 4-3-1, nine points in eight games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 17-13-1, 35 points in 31 games

I predicted the loss in extra time last night, the Blues are a tough out for Edmonton. I could never have predicted how the Oilers lost, that was one weird game. The Oilers are on pace for 93 points, that’s a playoff team. People are angry, but last night was an irritant, not a tragedy. General manager Ken Holland is no doubt taking notes and the game last night offered some Blues clues about overplaying defensemen.

SUMMARY

  • Leon Draisaitl picked up an assist, five shots, three HDSC and three giveaways. He also scored the goal that was offside. Draisaitl is an extremely productive player and he’s on a dynamite run currently. It’s a joy to watch the big man work with such precision.
  • Connor McDavid was flying all night, scoring 1-1-2, four shots and one HDSC. Had a giveaway, three takeaways and a couple of blocked shots. His goal was a beauty, scored when the teams were tied. Expressed frustration after the game because of the offside ruling. It’s a rule that was bent for the moment last spring and now the NHL has a problem. Who knew? McDavid was ‘also in photo’ on the last two goals-against.
  • Zach Hyman scored before people were in their seats, then kept doing great things. Three shots, three HDSC and he drew a penalty.
  • Mattias Janmark had a dandy chance to score but fanned on the shot. One HDSC, one penalty, he had the puck going in a good direction. He’s a smart player, and the chem between he and 93 is growing.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins picked up an assist with a nice pass to Tyson Barrie on the Kailer Yamamoto goal. He had a strong game, especially as a passer. Three shots, two HDSC, 2-2 TK-GV. 2:10 clean with just two shots against on the PK.
  • Kailer Yamamoto scored his second goal of the year on an all-world tip in front of the St. Louis net. He had two shots, two HDSC, two penalties (that second one will get him fined, two takeaways. An industrious player.
  • Klim Kostin drew a penalty, had a shot on goal, two HDSC and blocked a shot. He gets a lot done and does stand out in the Oilers bottom six.
  • Devin Shore had a tremendous scoring chance but the angle was tough and he sent it wide. He had a takeaway and won six of nince faceoffs.
  • Derek Ryan was quieter than normal, most noticeable as a forechecker. The Blues and their size are a tough match for the veteran. Fine PK man.
  • Dylan Holloway had one shot, one HDSC and should be getting more ice time. He should have earned an assist for setting up Devin Shore for a fantastic chance, but the veteran flubbed it.
  • James Hamblin (not listed above) had three shots, three HDSC, took a penalty and played well. He’s winning a job.
  • Brad Malone did not play.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi had two shots, two HDSC, a TK and two GV. He didn’t get much playing time but was effective in his opportunities.
  • Darnell Nurse played 29:03 and made some good plays, but two serious mistakes are all anyone (including Nurse) will remember. The error on the first GA was indecision and not feeling back pressure, the second GA was a little bad luck and a good play by the Blues. Doesn’t matter, he has to be better. Edmonton has no one better, so don’t expect a benching (as someone suggested last night on the TSN1260 postgame with Tom Gazzola, Matt Kassian and Geoff Walker, be sent to Bakersfield), but we might see Kulak-Barrie in that situation next time. Nurse is a fine player, Edmonton needs to find a way to play him less than half the game.
  • Cody Ceci had a couple of shots, a giveaway and a couple of takeaways. Nurse takes the heat on the tying goal, but Ceci wasn’t in a good defensive position when the pass went to the slot. There was a play to be made there.
  • Brett Kulak had two shots, a giveaway, blocked a couple of shots. Has some trouble with the bigger St. Louis forwards, sent a gorgeous pass to Zach Hyman that sent him away. for a great chance.
  • Tyson Barrie is my choice for best defender on the night, although much of the reason was offensive. Three assists, three shots, one HDSC, 2GV and 1TK. He has excellent offensive instincts.
  • Philip Broberg didn’t play much, was mostly good in coverage and passed well. He isn’t showcasing the entire skill set, but that will come.
  • Evan Bouchard struggled on the night, just one shot, 2-2 on GV-TK and he blocked some shots. Edmonton needs him to be far more dynamic, and we’re not seeing the gorgeoous stretch passes often anymore.
  • Stuart Skinner stopped 27 of 30, and that included some exceptional chances. I’m going to harp on this all year long, but where is the Calder buzz for this big man? Holy hell, Stuart Skinner is having a year. Who will speak on his behalf?

ABOUT LAST NIGHT

I’m on the air today for four hours and already know the topic of discussion. Darnell Nurse had a poor game, needs to be better and the NHL needs to figure out the offside play. May I add a third topic? Scheisse happens. The Blues had too many men, ill-fated lineup cards and God knows what else going on, and won the game. There will be a game in the future when Edmonton comes out on the good side.

It’s important to take away the proper conclusions from a game like that one. Benching Nurse isn’t going to happen and sending him down (as suggested on the post game) is just rage verbal after a tough loss.

The key factor is this: Darnell Nurse needs help. He is unable to play those minutes and be effective, that much is clear. The game tying goal was a mess, but his pass was the right plan and should have worked. Scheisse happens. Now I have to go read some of the most ghastly texts in Edmonton radio history today, but I’m hoping the blog can keep the conversation gentlemanly. I’m counting on you.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

A full four hours today, we’ll have Steve Lansky and Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic, plus preview the World Cup Final. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

YOUNG PLAYERS

You know how I always prattle on about that 2005-06 team? The one that received an enormous boost from the department of youth? All of Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Raffi Torres, Jarret Stoll, Fernando Pisani and Marc-Andre Bergeron helped the team that season. Edmonton doesn’t have the same number of kids, but Skinner, Holloway and Broberg emerging as legit NHLers this season would be huge. Skinner is already there, along with other youngsters like Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin. Edmonton needs more talent and it can’t be expensive.

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Munny 2.0

Pending UFA LHD with 2022 Games Played ordered by Cap Hit

Orlov ($5.1M)
Ghost Bear (4.5)
Dumoulin (4.1)
Graves (3.17)
Cole (3)
Gavrikov (2.8)
Soucy (2.75)
Kulikov (2.25)
Maatta (2.25)
Mikkola (1.9)
Oesterle (1.35)
Holden (1.3)
Walman (1.05)
Jack Johnson ($950K)

I believe the technical term for this is “a dog’s breakfast.” Plenty more below 950K of course, but they’re just as enticing.

Gavrikov looks the most likely. Big salary compared to cap hit. CBJ is not making any money, nor are they making the playoffs. That looks like more AAV than Holland would like, considering the player he would be getting in return.

I might have to switch from F to D for the Oilers big purchase. I don’t see how this gets done from that UFA crop. The problem is, I just don’t see Holland blocking Broberg for multiple years.

On the forward front, Stauffer brought up Acciari’s name to Friedman today, so he’s on Bob’s radar too. Friedman doesn’t think there’s a fit there right now.

who

Mikkola would be my target. He looks good, big and physical, every time we play the Blues.

jp

Is it better to have led and lost than never to have led at all?

That is the question facing the Alberta NHL teams this evening, after the Flames lose 5-2 to the St. Louis Blues, never having led at all.

Munny 2.0

lol.

And I’m glad the Flames have taken a night off this loser point nonsense.

You know, I think the Ducks are going to get run over by a steamroller tomorrow afternoon.

That has trap game written all over it but after yesterday’s outcome, I don’t think the Oilers are gonna be guilty of approaching it too lightly.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree.

I think Darnell Nurse gets in a fight…..

Munny 2.0

that’s not a bad guess

jp

Yes, likely. Though I never like predicting specific game results with too much confidence.

Munny 2.0

I’m a big believer in “low expectations leads to more satisfying outcomes” lol, but wild and crazy predictions are too much fun to abstain totally. That’s why Toews will be an Oiler 😉

And I take comfort that there’s a ‘verse somewhere in the multiverse where this will actually come true… it just doesn’t coincide with this version of me.

jp

Not low expectations, just that there’s too much volatility and uncertainty in a single game to be expecting a 2 or 3 or 4 goal win on a specific night.

No issue with thinking big on trade possibilities. And you might be convincing me on Toews. He’s kind of exactly what this team needs up front.

I still think a D of some note will be added, but Toews with double retention would be a big addition.

€√¥£€^$

This is for those who want more fuel for their fire regarding the abysmal NHL “standard” in making correct calls.

He covers the OT offside here:
https://youtu.be/7qeR2nYzGaA

And the Yamamoto “headshot” here:
https://youtu.be/6zWxhDYfxtM

Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
€√¥£€^$

If nothing else these are at least entertaining.

Videos regarding the 2 Yamamoto “penalties” from last night, hear what the St Louis commentators have to say:

https://youtu.be/hG-FUlt7I8E

https://youtu.be/yp-9HwHijwI

Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
Bill

Condors vs. Reign was postponed due to unsafe ice conditions in Bakersfield.

813.52Ran

Sounds like my driveway this evening.

OriginalPouzar

Watching them try to fix that stanchion was something else….

Tarkus

Summarizing!

Another game, another PP goal for Lachance for his 15th tally of the season in a 2-1 victory. He was also named 2nd star.

Wanner picked up an assist in the Moose Javians’ victory.

Brandon’s game was postponed due to adverse weather conditions in Winterpeg.

Tarkus

Not an Oilers prospect, but the Broncos’ Josh Filmon has the Dub’s first 6-goal game since the Ennis Mightier did it in 2009:

https://whl.ca/gamecentre/1018929/boxscore

Munny 2.0

I had Moose Jawa once. Friday night special in this cozy little cantina nobody’s ever heard of. Found it while exploring down a Mos Eisley side street near the spaceport… The peppercorn sauce was divine and the house band wasn’t half bad either.

OriginalPouzar

1) I haven’t seen anything but I presume this is another healthy scratch for Tulio….. given the trip of ECHL players on the 4th line…..

2) I don’t think that’s putting Savoie in his best position to succeed…..

3) Good to have the Octopus, er, Deharnais back

Benson/McKegg/Griffith
Bailey/Philp/Bourgault
Savoie/Esposito/Kambeitz
McPhee/Dove-McPhalls/Rymsha

Demers/Kesselring
Kaldis/Deharnais
Gildon/Kemp

Rodrigue

Bulging Twine

Tullio is sick per Mike Griffith

OriginalPouzar

Thanks.

Harpers Hair

Some discussion today that the NHL will return to an 84 game season next year.

The notion is to add more in division games to balance situations where the Flames and Oilers only play 3 games in a season.

godot10

Shortening the pre-season is fine by me.

OriginalPouzar

Oilers recall Niemelainen

jp

Huh. That’s a twist.

OriginalPouzar

Ya – I wonder if they are looking at 11/7.

The other option would be, of course, to play Broberg more minutes…….deserved minutes.

jp

Yeah. There would need to be another move if Foegele is being activated too, right?

Was wondering if it could be in place of Broberg (and I agree he should be playing). He didn’t play after the 3-2 goal against that he and Bouchard were on for last night.

I didn’t notice in real time, but just watched the replay and Broberg chased Barbashev out to the side boards and kind of abandoned the slot that Thomas walked into and scored from.

I dunno, I’d be surprised in Niemalainen outright replaced Broberg in the lineup. And yeah, potentially 11/7 is the plan.

Of course, there could also be some injury we haven’t heard about as well.

OriginalPouzar

Just Malone down (and he was on waivers today) – they already sent Benson down and didn’t recall anyone so have had a 22-player roster the last bit – Niemo makes 23 and Malone down will make room for Foegele.

I’d be fairly upset if Broberg was scratched for Nimeo straight up.

jp

Forgot they were at 22 already, thanks.

godot10

Thomas was Hyman’s or McDavid’s man. They were floating on the backtrack thinking about the postgame already.

hunter1909

Hard hitting, mobile defenceman – who would have guessed it.

SVR

Arizona dressing 7 d tonight

Munny 2.0

I recall him too. Vaguely.

😉

I wonder if it’s to showcase.

Bulging Twine

Perhaps Verbeek asked to see him

Bulging Twine

Broberg going to benched for Nurse’s gaffes?

OriginalPouzar

Broberg was benched for his own gaffes….. not that I agree with that – rookie D will make mistakes and he should have continued to play.

Harpers Hair
maudite

Hopefully not by increasing nurse’s dzs up anymore. He’s got reverse of cake makar plus 4% right now.

I’m am cheering for makar to win Norris it would be amazing 60+% offensive zone starts winning.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

Coaches tend to play their studs where they will make the most difference in winning.

maudite

Logical people weigh all factors when assessing situations over cherry picking the ones that suit narrative to cause target to get irritated.

I’m out. Sorry LT. It’s my bad.

The bear thing for some reason. He finally got me on one for the bear random mention.

Shameless

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
OmJo

Nurse is 7th in total TOI and 21st in TOI/GP among defencemen this season.
At Even Strength, he is 4th and 9th, respectively.

Nurse is 29th in PTS among defencemen this season.
At Even Strength, he is 10th.

Nurse is 39th in EVGF% among defencemen this season who have played 20 or more games.

He seems to be a legit top-pairing defenceman to me.

There is one more thing to consider with the Nurse contract. If Nurse was not an Oiler today, then I would be infinitely more concerned about McDavid and Draisaitl staying here (unless they win a cup before Drai hits FA) when the times comes to renew them. Having Nurse signed for so long may end up playing a significant part in those two deciding to remain Oilers.

maudite

Strength of schedule, injury games hopefully ending up average for season and likeky a decent 2nd pair LHD at deadline will probably fix a lot of kinks in his seasons numbers. I’d put money his value lands 7.5-8 mill by season end.

65% dz starts is pretty harsh hill.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
OmJo

Forgot to add, he is doing all of this WHILE PLAYING AGAINST THE LEAGUES BEST PLAYERS FOR 24+ MINUTES A GAME!

Bulging Twine

Cam Fowler?

Harpers Hair

3 more seasons at $6.5 million,

Maybe if they retained half.

What would that cost?

godot10

…can’t defend.

Funnybird

100% agree with LT’s comment “The key factor is this: Darnell Nurse needs help. ” He is playing too much. He is trying to conserve energy where he can and that is leading to errors. He is the Oilers best d man by a country mile and we have no better options. The contract would be better at 7.5 or 8 but we more than make up for that with Nuge’s contract (poor the Nuge). One last point, hockey is a game of error’s, the more you play, the more the errors. Watch Devil’s highlites from the mid 90’s and see how many times Scott Niedermayer coughed up the puck.

106 and 106

McLeod spoke to Media today post practice:

  • Tweaked his ankle and still says he’s a ways away from returning.
  • Going to be a bit. Shot on the goalie for the first time in 3 weeks.
  • Guess would be mid to late Jan for the 3C to get back in.
jtblack

agree with LT that Skinner is having a season. As I watched last night, I thought he looked very controlled, calm and in great position. And he’s been that way for a while now.

Skinner does deserve Calder recognition. Maybe he will get more respect when he’s the goalie lifting the Cup in June !!!!!!!!!!!!!

VanIsleOil

Is this a Mama Skinner’s ghost account?…I keed…:)

Reja

It’s all about wins Skinner has a 9-7-1
meanwhile Captain Jack is 8-6. If Skinner record was 13-3-1 then that’s totally a different ball-game. Like Patty Roy said it’s all about the rings baby. If Woody played Holloway 16 minutes and the kid regained his confidence then he would be in the conversation for the allusive Calder Award.

OriginalPouzar

Woody is the reason that Holloway isn’t in Calder consideration?

Somewhat similar to projection the sweep to the Jets turns in to an Oilers series win if Bouch was played.

maudite

We like our prospects. Until they clearly don’t pan out or get highly paid – then we hate them.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Reja

Are they handling Holloway properly? I vehemently say no likewise with the way they handled Bouchard. We lost 3 OT games in a row and Ethan basically ended his career in Edmonton because of his mistakes . It’s Ok to be a Fan and question some of their moves on development and playing time. Us older Oiler faithful watched in amazement Glen Sather masterfully do no wrong for a good 10 years. Glen Sather was a genius he always bought and sold at the perfect time.

OriginalPouzar

Never said I think they are handling his ice optimally. That wasn’t a concept in the post I responded to. I responded to a post about him being calder conversation worth with more ice time. I don’t think “optimal deployment” is what is keeping him from the conversation.

That’s some nice words about Glen Sather. Seemingly random, but nice words nonetheless.

Reja

What potential do you see in Holloway? Right now is the most important time in this kids development with the wrist injury Covid etc. What I’m trying to say is Sather would let this kid play through his mistakes just like he did for so many young Oilers who in turn payed him back 3-fold. The way Woody is handling Holloway makes me think Woody is playing short ball we need a Coach who’s playing long ball that’s how you win. Long Ball=Cups

OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree that Holloway should be playing more but what you actually said was that, if he had more minutes, he’d be in the Calder conversation which is the statement I was responding to.

OriginalPouzar

I found this interesting – not posting as a defence of the inconsistent of calls but thought the insight in to the goings-ons was interesting:

https://twitter.com/ESPNRefNHL/status/1603797450996662272

I feel the need to add some insight as to what goes on in the Situation Room. I worked a total of 34 years for the NHL, both on and off the ice. In that time, I spent a total of 10 minutes inside the room, taking a quick tour. Last month, because of my position at ESPN

there is also a leadership group of 3-5 ppl on any given night who are ex-NHL players and coaches. They have played or coached for a combined 24 different NHL franchises. Add to that, 1 retired NHL official who is a current supervisor and takes a turn swinging through…
·
the room on a monthly basis. Each of these officials (7 total) have all worked in excess of 1000 NHL games. I had no idea what a technological marvel this room is. Picture NASA but with nothing but hockey on the screens and rule books and memos piled everywhere

.When anything happens in any game that may require a review, it’s immediately, “All hands on deck” It’s a rush seeing their team jump into action. The logger in question is immediately surrounded by the leadership group and the play in question is isolated and prepped…

to be reviewed and sent to in-arena tablets in the penalty box. Communication lines are opened to the arena and they’re ready for a coach’s challenge if needed. They are so efficient and professional, they usually have a definitive answer before the refs even get on the…

headset. It pains me to read comments that “they flip a coin” or “don’t want a certain team or country to win” I realize that these comments are based in frustration but they are ignorant, disingenuous and could not be further from the truth. The men in this room….7/

have hundreds of years and thousands of games of experience in the NHL. They are principled, honest and hard working. Their integrity is beyond reproach. I don’t agree with every decision they make but I never worry that any decision has an ounce of bias. They want…..

to get every call right and serve the game to the best of their abilities. The have immense pride in the work that they do. If anyone feels like taking a deep dive into their body of work, I encourage you to dig up video of calls not involving your favorite team….

I think you’ll find that their calls are extremely consistent and fair. It’s a tough job without much praise and I for one have a ton of respect for all they do

PinkSocks

I see what you’re saying, but you have missed the mark because there is a very key element missing. These experienced professionals with years and years of experience have a guiding principle, the baseline for their decision making, which is the NHL rule book. They very well may have the pride and talent to accomplish their goal, but when their baseline has a fault, they cannot effectively accomplish their job. The onus is not on the bodies in the situation room, it’s the NHL executive offices who make the decisions on the rule book. When the baseline for the situation room is unclear, the results are inaccurate and inconsistent rulings.

PinkSocks

I’d also go out on a limb and say that the rule book’s grey area is by design. We live in a world focused solely on profits. Edmonton is not a profitable location for Lord Stanley to reside. I’ll never forget the look on Gary Bettman’s face when NYR and LAK got into the finals. BOS/CHI, BOS/STL, WSH/VGK, PIT/SJS, all very profitable finals matchups. Gary would lose his mind if EDM/CAR had a rematch. He might retire if Winnipeg and Miami ever made it together.

Last edited 1 year ago by PinkSocks
hunter1909

The sooner that old twit goes back to whatever rock he crawled out from under the better.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t believe for a second that there are review decision intentionally biased against the Oilers.

Buddy

Thanks for posting this.

If this is all accurate, it’s all the more galling that their standards of interpretation vary so wildly from call to call, and that they get so many reviews just dead wrong.

Kurri17

Wow, all that experience and they are still incompetent! Impressive!

W

Ira, please tell us more about your 34 years of experience in the nhl.I for one enjoy and agree with A LOT of what you post, but then roll my eye at othe4 postings. Perhaps explaining who and what you were, would go miles in the I like OP postings.

OriginalPouzar

I have no idea what this means or what you are asking or trying to get at.

All I did was post the information about what the war room looks like and what goes on in there – I found it interesting.

Scungilli Slushy

The indiduals deserve respect. We assume they have integrity, as a judge should, and decide based on the rule book, and not their bias from past experience of how the league was, as sooooooo many involved with the league do

As fans we deserve a quality product. That they have this room and continue to produce results that aggravate the fans, and are very often highly questionable, continues the indictment of the league as less than the other NA pro leagues that they compete for fans with

Meaning well is nice. It’s not enough. Bettman wears it

maudite

Appreciate this. Do find there is some conveniently inconsistent things in playoffs especially though.

McDavid did have less control of puck than makar did in playoffs last year. So kind of consistent. But pretty sure a million zone entries called good had less control.than makar did.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree that McDavid lost possession/control – I could argue both ways but, if I’m behind honest, I think ROR made a play and McDavid lost possession. Friedman says it shouldn’t matter because his feet were in the zone by that time but I’m not sure I agree.

On the other hand, there is no way that Makar lost possession – he did not intentionally not touch the puck until Nichuskin could tag up – just no way.

I also don’t think that call went against the Oilers due to league bias.

maudite

I dont want to but like weirdly correlate worst blown calls recalled to WWBW (what would Bettman want?)

Kesler interference clearly

Buffalo robbery
Etc

All seem to fall to preference of league believed best value in bizarre oversights or omissions

PinkSocks

WWBW = $$$$

Anaheim (LA) $$$ > Edmonton $$$

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

i thought i would look at even strength natural stat trick on ice stats over the last 3 yrs for dmen playing over 3000 mins.

There are 27 dmen who have played over 3000 mins over the last 3 seasons…

Darnell is top 10 in

GF (#4)
CF (#8)
FF (#10)
XGF (#3)
HDCF (#5)
TOI/GP (#1) (21.08 freaking mins of ev toi per game)

Surrounded by guys like makar, heiskenin, letang, burns, slavvin, theodore, fox, weegar, faulk etc.

Literally noone plays the minutes he does at evens. and he plays them v effectively.

Also when you look at individual stats for dmen playing over 3000 mins.

Darnell leads the league with 25 goals at evns
Darnell is #15 with 44 assists
Darnell is #8 with 37 ihdcf
Darnell is #2 in hits with 340
Darnell is #7 in shots blocked with 222.

ENOUGH of this nonsense with saying he should be benched. He had an awful night and made some terrible decisions. But darnell is one of the top 10 dmen in the league when you consider the minutes he plays and his results whilst playing them.

He makes 9,25 mil which seems like a lot.

But he is #7 in the league for aav for dmen.

#10 is making 9 mil aav.
#15 is making 8 mil aav.

Lets all cool our jets and appreciate what he does do.

jtblack

is this a Kenny Holland ghost account?

hopeoil

Is that xgf% or just xGF for?

Harpers Hair

Most of the others in your comparables also provide ELITE offensive production on top of being top defensive players.

That’s why they are paid so much.

Faustkarz

mustve missed the part where he stated offensive production

Harpers Hair

Of course he didn’t.

That would destroy his narrative.

jp

Darnell leads the league with 25 goals at evns

Darnell is #15 with 44 assists

That totals #9 in points.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
meanashell11

pot kettle black

SK Oiler Fan

Yep. That’s the last 3 years. He’s playing below established ability this season

Diablo

This poster cherry picked the last three years, one year of which, 3 seasons ago, Darnell had an unsustainable shooting percentage that drives most of the offence in this sample. I wonder how good his numbers would look if you looked only at the past 2 seasons, AFTER he signed his contract extension.

OriginalPouzar

3 years is not a cherry picked sample – its the number of years one can aggregate on NST and the most recent 3.

I would say that the three year sample is more indicative than a 1.33 year sample but Nurse is tied with Jones and Hamilton for 5 on 5 points last year and this.

jp

Why don’t you actually go look something up rather than accusing another poster of cherry picking?

Folks have been posting about Nurse’s even strength offense for years.

Since the beginning of 17-18 (6plus seasons) he’s #9 in even strength points (just behind Theodore and just in front of Pietrangelo and Hamilton). He’s #8 in EV goals over the same span.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
Reja

If I’m the Coach GM I find 3 forwards that can shut it down as well as keeping up. We’re paying Jesse, Foegele and Yamo 9 million dollars. Are we getting value for these 3 players would it not be better spent on a Centre that can win face-offs when it counts. This line would be used to end games with a one Goal lead as well as shifting the momentum when the opposition score. These 3 would also be penalty killers as well. I’ll take MacTavish, Dave Hunter and Tikkanen with a real purpose over the 9 million were paying Jesse,Yamo and Foegele who don’t have a identity.

TheGreatBigMac

JP and Foegele + pick(s) to the hawks for Toews retained.

hunter1909

McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH McLeod and you want to worry about centres!??

Defence, defence, as in acquiring a pair of intelligent, hard hitting goons in the back end. This ain’t rocket science. Try JP on defence for a game or two. He’s already packed his bags metaphorically so there’s nothing to lose at this point.

Last edited 1 year ago by hunter1909
OriginalPouzar

Of all the forwards on the team, Jesse would probably be last, or near last, in those I would try on defence.

jtblack

we all want the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup, except HH.

IMO the disappointment from last night’s player usage from the coach is 3 Fold:

1 – playing THE Top players 25 – 30 mins / night is not a sustainable way to win, even if it bears out results in the short term

2 – Relying on 1 line does not work in the playoffs. Once you meet deeper teams, you need multiple lines going. If you rely on 1 line you might win a round or 2; but no more.

3 – With huge minutes being logged, the risk of injury increases. If Woody thinks it’s hard to coach when Kane, Foegle & McLeod are out, what will he do if Nurse, McD or Drai is out? He should treat his top guys like Thorobred Horses. Play them a lot, play them in the important situations and make sure they have enough energy for the Kentucky Derby (Playoffs).

HenryDrix

Not going to defend Nurse, not going to slag him either. the entire D Core (as a whole) is not Stanley Cup contending quality. I know what i want for Christmas.

Last edited 1 year ago by HenryDrix
hunter1909

Nurse has not met expectations re his cap hit.

The rest of the defence is too weak. This is in no way anything to do with Nurse.

hunter1909

I know most of Y’all are bothered about last night’s collapse but me i already know that this is a fundamentally flawed team and so I’ll happily take another loser point and next game is a must win.

Oilers are in a horse race for playoff position obviously they feel that they are a top 3-4 team in the Western Conference although they have a hard time proving it.

John Chambers

If Jakob Chyckrun was an Oiler, where would he be on the defensive depth chart?

No worse than 3rd, right? Arguably 2nd? He might be the team’s best overall blueliner perhaps. And that’s at present time. What about for the subsequent two seasons as he enters his prime?

Who else is available in a trade who might conceivably be the Oilers best or second-best defenseman? How can any Oilers fan be opposed to trading for JC?

Pretendergast

With the way he plays when healthy, he’s #1 imo. People slot him below Nurse because money but I’d say he is better than anyone currently on the roster.

jtblack

Chychrun was given a market value of $9.4 Million by DOM. Nurse was $5.5 Million.

Before others yell at me, I am just stating the facts or what DOM gave them for value.

meanashell11

DOM does not know shit. He has Kane at AAV $7M.

jtblack

yes, he made 1 mistake. Burn all his work.

I see LT makes the odd error here and there. Should we burn down his work and suggest he’s useless because of a spelling error or incorrect stat?

jp

One curio of that rating is that Nurse’s last 3 seasons had GSVA of 0.2, 1.9, 1.9 (with the 1.9s most recent), but Dom’s model projects a GSVA of 1.1 for this season.

Chychrun has GSVAs of 1.5, 2.6 and 0.0, but he’s projected at 2.2 GSVA this season.

Dom’s ‘Market value’ is based directly off projected GSVA, but looking at the numbers going in its mystifying why Chychrun has that projection that 2x Nurse’s.

jp

Who else is available in a trade who might conceivably be the Oilers best or second-best defenseman? 

If they’re willing to pay two 1sts and (say) Bourgault then I imagine some more names would become available.

Harpers Hair

Not sure about that.

You would need to find a team ready to blow it up and the only one that comes to mind is Philadelphia and Ivan Provorov and I don’t know if he fits the bill.

Reja

Do we see a trade later today are tomorrow with the ongoing chatter involving the Ducks?

OriginalPouzar

Doubt it.

cowboy bill

Sure hope so. Get rid of that odd duck.

OriginalPouzar

Foegele confirmed “an available player for tomorrow”. I don’t know why Woody won’t just say “he’s in”, he’s weird about these things.

Reja

Fresh start for Foegle if he can pop a couple before Christmas sure would do wonders for his confidence.

Redbird62

If he hasn’t told Foegele he is in for sure or maybe the player who would be coming out, he is not going to tell us. Also, Woody is very deliberate in trying to not commit to something then possibly having to back tracking on it later.

Offside

Many are screaming (metaphorically) at Holland for overpaying Nurse. But Nurse can still play his way out of this slump. I know it’s hypothetical, but if Holland did not re-sign Nurse then the screaming would have been way worse and probably for way longer.

On another note, after the call last night and the one in the Colorado series, I think I am changing my moniker. The word “offside” carries too much negativity

flea

I let my Sportsnet now streaming lapse, so I haven’t been watching the games lately. I plan to connect again at some point but it’s interesting hearing the vitriol last night. It’s been nice to step back a little – games like last night are just water under bridge as a less engaged fan.

The Oilers should have won but they also didn’t put their foot down and do what they needed to win the game. Seems like they aren’t quite as good at closing out games as last year but I still think their record is pretty good leading after 3. As long as it doesn’t become a habit, I think they can flush that one or use it for fuel/motivation to play better going forward.

Offside

Love how “flea” uses the phrase “under the bridge”

Last edited 1 year ago by Offside
jp

After the OTL, they are now 10-1-1 when leading after two.

Bag of Pucks

The Nurse contract apologists are notably silent today.

That’s progress of a sort.

jp

I’m glad Holland re-signed Nurse rather than trading or letting him walk.

What would you like to see an apologist say today?

Bag of Pucks

The silence is enough.

Btw it’s a strawman to suggest that anyone who doesn’t like the Nurse contract is automatically in favour of trading or walking him. It ignores the obvious 3rd option.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bag of Pucks
jp

What was the third option? Rewrite history?

Bag of Pucks

I’m going to leave that one with you a while. I’m sure you can figure it out.

Harpers Hair

Do you think there is another GM in the league that could/would offer Nurse a $9+ million dollar contract over 7/8 years?

Given that max term would not be a possibility for another team, one would assume the AAV would be even higher.

I would like to know who you think that might be.

Seems to me Holland was negotiating against himself and badly misjudged Nurses value.

Offside

Nurse exceeded his value on each prior contract. I am fine with Holland’s bet

Bag of Pucks

Thanks for this. I’m reading a lot about the crypto crash these days and this really made me laugh when I considered Holland’s ‘bet’ in that context. I needed that.

Offside

I am not sure I would compare a high draft pick who was selected “in the consensus range” and steadily improved over multiple years to crypto currency

Bag of Pucks

Where the comparison is apt is the expectation the asset will continually grow in value across the entirety of its lifecycle. Holland built no risk mitigation into this deal. The only way it delivers value is Nurse absolutely killing it for the duration. How’s that working out so far?

jp

If you’re boldly applying ‘how’s that working out so far?’ to Nurse and Campbell’s contracts, then you must also be over the moon with the unbelievable value deals Holland signed Nuge and Hyman to.

Top 20 scorers both with cap hits outside the top 150 players in the league.

Bag of Pucks

Yeah, I’d move off defending the Nurse contract too if I was you.
Was the strawman your ‘smoking gun?’ Sorry about that.

jp

Haha, you sure mine is the strawman?

I haven’t moved off anything, but glad you’re feeling good about yourself.

Bag of Pucks

Damn. I just assumed you would have figured out the third option you missed by now. Need a hint?

jp

The third option is the straw man.

Bag of Pucks

Nope. Keep trying.

Harpers Hair

Now.

Both are on retirements contracts that are very likely to be anchors sooner rather than later.

maudite

Decades of darkness we don’t trust nice things in these parts. Just crave familiar comfort of assuming worst is around corner by focusing on worst we can find facing at present.

Trauma. It’s a real thing.

Harpers Hair

It was also based on an unsustainable offensive heater that predictably disappeared.

maudite

Nurse had a solid season by any standard you can legitimately place last year…if you care to earnestly look at it.

Nurse PDO before contract signed year – 103.1
Jt Miller PDO before contract signed year 103.1

Please do tell.

I’d love to see you red herring your way to avoid trying to differentiate.

“We aren’t talking about jt Miller” doesn’t apply. (You do this incessantly)

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Redbird62

The deal is for 656 regular season games. So far he has played 31 of them. That is insufficient evidence to state with certainty that the Oilers entering the contract with Nurse was a mistake. And no GM signs a 7 to 8 year deal with players already entering their UFA seasons with the expectation that the asset will grow for the entirety of their life cycle.

Bag of Pucks

Are you anticipating him becoming a PP QB? If no, the contract is poor value. Holland himself stated as GM of Detroit that you should never spend big $ on defensive abilities. I have no idea why he overlooked his own team building tenants with this contract. The most plausible explanation is he was forecasting an offensive breakout from Nurse based on his outlier season.

Bank Shot

Probably Vancouver. Their fans think Brogan Rafferty is a top four dman

who

I’m not sure if I’m a Nurse apologist or not. I think pre 22-23 Nurse was probably worth 8 million per year, and if that extra million helps the Oilers sign McDavid to another contract (who knows if this will be a factor), then it is money well spent.
My problem is that Nurse appears to be regressing. I read somewhere that he went to a longer stick this year. I have no idea if that has affected his puck skills but his puckhandling has been terrible all year. His decision making with the puck has always been questionable, so right now, I am holding my breath every time he touches the puck. Especially in the dzone!
The second issue is that Nurse seems to have this completely unwarranted, and yet totally unshakeable, confidence in his offensive abilities. He is just not that player.
Nurse was drafted to be a fast, physical, shut down defender. No one was expecting him to generate a lot of offense. He would work best on a 1st pairing where he was not the primary puck mover or distributor. It’s just too bad that Bouchard hasn’t been able to take the next step. He would be the perfect complement to Nurse.

godot10

The haters didn’t want to sign Nurse long term post ELC, post the transitional deal, nor post the team friendly 3rd deal. The Oilers failed two times to lock Nurse up long term at a better number twice and they skewered themselves.

I am fine with Nurse at $9.25 million. If I were a billionaire, he could play for me. Paying one’s best players is never a cap issue. Paying lousy players is where one gets into cap trouble.

Bag of Pucks

They paid a Dman with middling offensive upside perennial Norris candidate money because he was coming off an outlier offensive season. You pay elite PP QBs like this, not alleged shutdown D. It was beyond dumb the second the ink dried.

You win in a salary cap system by acquiring value contracts not albatrosses.

Holland handled this like someone buying bitcoin at the peak of the hype cycle. HH is right. He was negotiating against himself and unfortunately I suspect the rumours are true that a large factor was keeping the core intact (ie Connor’s buddies).

The silver lining is I don’t stress about this stuff anymore. I long ago realized this org will likely win 1 Cup max with this core because outside Kane, nobody is doing Holland any favours. All of these guys are demanding lux compensation and my guess is that is the premium they’re forced to pay to secure longterm services in the hinterlands.

We got lucky and drafted a couple centerpieces but they’ll never build out the necessary depth to win Lord Stanley when the core is taking the GM to the cleaners with every new contract. For every bad contract Holland turfs (Kassian), he adds two more (Nurse, Campbell). It’s actually comical once you divest emotionally.

Harpers Hair

Both can be true at the same time.

OriginalPouzar

Malone on waivers.

McLeod on ice “skating swiftly”.

Offside

sounds poetic

Redbird62

Connor’s 29:23 minutes were the second most minutes played by a forward this season.  Nathan Mackinnon played 29:50 against Dallas back on Nov 21. McDavid is tied with MacKinnon as well with 5 games at over 25 minutes, with Rantanen in second at 4 games, followed by Kucherov and Draisaitl with 3.  McDavid leads all forward in average TOI, but only by 30 seconds per game over Rantanen, followed by Drai, Barkov and MacKinnon about 60 seconds back. He is the best NHL player and skater hands down. Why wouldn’t he be on the ice more than any other forward?

And in terms of Woodcroft’s deployment in the 3rd, He was reacting to Berube’s shortening of his forward bench -at evens St Louis in the 3rd went with average line times of:

Kyrou Line ~ 6 minutes (Kyrou 6:12, Thomas 6:10, Barbashev 5:48)
O’Reilly Line ~ 5 minutes (O’Reilly 4:52, Tarasenko 4:53, Buchnevich 5:38)
Leivo Line ~ 3.75 minutes (Leivo 2:54, Saad 3:53, Schenn 4:47)
Acciari Line ~1 minute (Acciari, 1:56, Pitlick :36, Torpachenko :30)

In response Woody went with:

McDavid’s line ~ 6.25 minutes (McDavid 6:52; Drai 5:57: Hyman 6:00)
Hopkins line ~ 5.25 minutes (Nuge 4:43, Yamamoto 5:41, Janson 5:06)
Ryan’s line ~ 3.25 minutes (Ryan 3:11, Shore 3:22, Kostin 3:09)
Hamblin’s line ~ 1 minutes (Hamblin :29, Holloway 1:01, Jesse 1:48)

Slight differences in match ups are generally due to on the fly changes and possibly a few icings in the period.

Yes the Oilers were leading, but by only 1 goal for all but 60 seconds of the entire period. It was a close game. If Kane/MacLeod and Foegele were available, maybe Woodcroft could trust his 3rd line a little more to defend against St. Louis’s top 6, but who is going to deliberately put either of Edmonton’s current bottom 2 lines out against Kyrou’s or O’Reilly’s line? The outcry today against Woodcroft today if Kyrou or O’Reilly’s line had scored against Ryan or Hamblin’s line would have been deafening by comparison. I can’t fault Woody for his line choices.  He even went conservative on the PP with Nurse/Ceci on D rather than Barrie and 4 forwards.  The players just didn’t execute.  

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC
·
1m

Brad Malone (EDM) on waivers. Rindell clears

Bruce McCurdy

Malone hooped himself with a careless stick foul 200 feet from his net defending a lead late in Nashville. He was always a tweener, but veterans are expected to make smart plays and that wasn’t one.
Surely means Foegele is ready for tomorrow.

Reja

Malone had a opportunity to bring that physicality that is much needed also win faceoffs in the defence end and be Woody’s go to guy that he could trust late in games. Probably his last legit chance of getting into the line-up for these reasons.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Loser point. Deserved a point but were the definite losers.

Saskie

I’m hoping that Woodcroft, is learning from his day to day results, but also from past oilers history in more ways that one.. Doing the Tippet overplaying of the core can’t go on for long .. I hope this has just been the short term plan to get past the injuries to key forwards and as the difficulty of schedule subsides then the minutes of the bottom 6 forward and bottom defence will increase to where they can find their game as well.. The young guns of 2005 and 2006 seemed to have a regular roll build fairly quickly, so that by the time playoffs came they were legit contributors and in some cases huge contributors.. Blues Clues ! Haven’t heard that since my girls were toddlers 🙂

CrazyCoach

I won’t pile on Nurse as much as others, but I won’t spend time and space (a concept lost on Nurse) defending him either. Blame Woodcroft all you want for the increased minutes, but when you make a certain wage, there are expectations that come with it. $9.5M is a lot of money for a guy, and when a GM pays a player that much, you can best believe there are closed door conversations between GM and coach about maximizing value etc. I feel for Woodcroft, because he has to play Nurse, especially after the retirement of Duncan Keith, who is sorely missed in spite of his 5.5M cap hit.

Now, back to the game. Those were insanely brutal mistakes made by Nurse and instead of regrouping and god forbid moving his ass to cover the slot, we get treated to Darnell Starfish laying on the ice which is about as dumb a play as you can make. You literally could throw a pylon out there and it could defend better than a prone player. OK, enough of the rant.

The reality is, Nurse’s agent pulled a fast one on Holland and Holland fell for it. The team is stuck with that lousy contract, so how does Holland manage it? I’ve resolved myself to the opinion that Nurse is at best a 3-4 D-man on a good team and maybe a No. 2 on a middling/poor team. He is not, and never will be a No. 1 d-man. If this team wants to win with him, break out the chequebook, mortgage the draft picks and prospect pool and get a bonafide No. 1 d-man to play with Ceci. Nurse shifts to 2nd pairing and plays less minutes.

That will never happen though, because old man Holland doing such a move would mean admitting he grossly overpaid, and because he painted himself into a corner cap wise, well, you know the rest of the story.

Scungilli Slushy

Well said coach. Holland has been better than the others, but has made some poor signings that hurt and will hurt long term

For me that he enabled the Hawks to overpay Jones so that he had to overpay Nurse was really unimpressive, especially for such an experienced GM

godot10

Ceci is a 3rd pairing D. Barrie, Bouchard are 3rd pairing D. Bear was the best of the lot, and the Oilogosphere and mainstream media always run those guys out of town.

Harpers Hair

Interesting that Vancouver is running Bear out on a few shits with Quinn Hughes on the top pairing.

W

Interesting that Carolina was healthy scratching him.

godot10

Carolina would be healthy scratching Ceci, Bouchard, and Barrie too.

jp

Carolina would be healthy scratching Ceci, Bouchard, and Barrie too.

Wait.

I sailed by a couple of mentions of this by you earlier.

You realize that Jalen Chatfield is the Canes 3RD this season, right? Calvin De Haan his main partner.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=177555

And that Brendan Smith and Ian Cole were the Canes 3rd pair for the 2nd half of last season and the playoffs?

I don’t agree at all that Ceci, Bouchard and Barrie wouldn’t be playing ahead of those guys.

maudite

It must be because they are desperate. I swear you could find ample proofs in past post that murkily advance that bear would never even make whatever team presently has best defence at that moment.

Its embarrasing today.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
jp

Interesting that Vancouver is running Bear out on a few shits with Quinn Hughes on the top pairing.

Interesting that Hughes-Bear together have had a GF% of 33 and an xGF% of 38 when on the ice together, in not quite 38 minutes.

OriginalPouzar

Holland has shown the ability to move on from mistakes (not qualifying AA) and even pay for them to go away (Kassian).

jtblack

Updated 10 game segments for BATMAN & ROBIN. Sorry, I meant to post yesterday, before game 31.

FIRST 10 GMS:
MCD – 11 G 11 A 22 PTS
DRAI – 6 G 15 A 21 PTS

SECOND 10 GMS:
MCD – 5 G 8 A 13 PTS
DRAI – 5 G 5 A 10 PTS

THIRD 10 GMS:
MCD – 10 G 14 A 24 PTS
DRAI – 10 G 10 A 20 PTS

AFTER 30 GAMES:
MCD – 26 G 33 A 59 PTS
DRAI – 21 G 30 A 51 PTS

norm2015

If we plopped a Chycrun or Edmunson on the 2LD how much better would Nurse be? less extra minutes less mistakes? Broberg love the kid but he is developed yet we need a 2nd LD and Kulak and Bro can’t handle that this season

jtblack

IMO there is a clear performance disparity between Chycrun and Edmundson. I am not sure Edmundson is any good.

I know there are many factors overall, but Edmundson has the following CF%:
2022 – 35%
2021 – 39%
2020 – 49%
2019 – 46%
2018 – 47%
2017 – 44%

negative CF%rel every year. He delivers no offense. So if he is a Defensive D man with poor possession metrics and poor in relation to his teammates every year, what does that mean?

Won a Cup in St.Louis, but ……. ???

SoCaloil

Looks like most folks are on the same page this am

Nurse 29 mins,
Ceci 26.5 mins
McDavid 29mins

Drai, 28.5mins
Hyman 25 mins.

Flip side

Broberg 8mins
Holloway 7mins
Hamblin 5min
Kostin 8min
JP just shy of 8mins
Shore 10.5 mins

Meanwhile you don’t play Foegele because he didn’t have a skate in a couple of weeks?
That’s poor decision making.

Drai’s commitment to Defence last night was beyond pathetic.
On the Thomas goal, we was hunched over coasting, not moving his feet rather than covering.
At one point, Broberg was left all alone with time and the puck on his stick.
Drai stopped at the blue line and waited, meanwhile a forecheck forces a turnover because Broberg has nowhere to go.
Weak D effort, but then again, that’s what you get with these mins night in and out.

Ice the damn roster.

This loss is squarely on the coaching staff.

FULL STOP.

SoCaloil

and Nurse will make mistakes with those type of minutes.
As will 99% of league’s D

jp

Weak D effort, but then again, that’s what you get with these mins night in and out.

Nurse is playing 24:01 a night.

That’s more than a minute less then either of the previous 2 seasons. In his best season (20-21) he played 25:37 per game, and he was at 25:02 last season.

He and others did play too much last night.

Redbird62

Nurse’s ice time 29:03. So far this season a defenseman has played more than 29 minutes on 41 occasions, Nurse has done it twice with another game at 29:02 against the Blackhawks. 36 times, D have played more than Nurse did last night including Makar 4 times, Josi 4, Karlsson 4, Chabot 4, Dahlin 3 times and several twice. Many of these D logged in excess of 31 minutes in these games with a high of 34 minutes. Yes some of these are Norris trophy winners, but Nurse is as well conditioned as any of them.

19 D in the NHL log more average ice time per game than Nurse. No question he made a huge execution mistake there, but I highly doubt excess ice time was the cause.

Scungilli Slushy

Some players are prone to making frequent big errors. The Oilers are good at finding them it seems

Good players but not consistently smart players. Top teams like Tampa and Boston, and the Avs last season get consistent reliable execution

Not that there aren’t mistakes, just not egregious ones very game. The core aren’t green anymore and aren’t moving past this. Maybe can’t

The GM need to mitigate that, and the coaches need enough balls and skill to get buy in and get them past it, like Sather did once upon a time

It’s not easy leading superstars and somebody paid like one

godot10

Take away PP play time and only look at even strength and PK minutes.

jtblack

Also, a lot of people on here are convinced Draisatl and McDavid are going to take “home town discounts” when their contracts come up.

If that logic prevails, then why didn’t Nurse? He is a part of the Core and not only did he not take a Home Town Discount, he ended up getting paid at the very Top of his range / value. I expect the same for Drai and McD.

Redbird62

Why didn’t Nurse take a discount? Over his first 7 seasons in the NHL through the end of last year, which included his ELC, and 2 bridge deals, Nurse made a total of $20 million. And with each of those two bridge deals, he was guaranteed only $6.4 million and $11.2 million, so if his performance flat lined, went down or he was seriously injured he was taking a huge risk on his long term financial worth.

Meanwhile up to the end of last season for Drai, which is effectively 7.5 seasons, including his ELC and his current 8 year deal, Leon has earned $47 million, and at the signing of his new contract, Leon was guaranteed $68 million by the time he would be 29.

Other than the 2 entry level slides for Nurse, McDavid’s and Nurse’s years with the Oilers line up. McDavid, had the full 3 year ELC, then signed a $100 million guaranteed contract, that, by end of last season, brought his total pay from the Oilers to $60 million.

If the Oilers had put enough on the table either at the signing of his first or second standard contracts (which would have been considerably less than his current $9.25 million AAV, he would have signed long term like McDavid and Drai did. Since Nurse at the time believed he was worth more long term than what the Oilers did, effectively he and the team entered into a wager on what that long term worth was. Nurse gave up a lot of guaranteed money to make that wager, why should he have then just said no problem, I will take less than what the market says I am worth?

In McDavid and Drai’s case, the Oilers offered them enough not to enter a bet. The Oilers took the risk instead (and in Drai’s case, most people said they paid too much for that risk – boy were they wrong). And contrary to popular opinion, playing hardball with Drai at the time would not likely have resulted in him signing $6.5 million to $7.5 million per season for the 8 years. More likely, he’d have been bridged at a much lower AAV for 2 years, then making well over $10 million per season for years 3-8. That time the Oilers won the bet.

And don’t construe this that I am saying Nurse is worth as much as Draisaitl or McDavid. It is just that the Oilers, in part due to their lack of cap space when negotiating with Nurse, were willing to pay Drai and McDavid in advance what they were worth, whereas with Nurse, they waited till he showed his full value (7th in Norris voting and 6 seasons of trending up every year). If Holland could have offered Nurse an 8 year $7 millionish contract ($56 million guaranteed) back in Feb 2020, he probably would have signed at that level and everyone would probably be happy today.

Last edited 1 year ago by Redbird62
jtblack

NURSE is right on pace for what he had done year in and year out. It’s not his fault that he’s paid $9.25 Million per. And probably not Holland’s fault that the contract was so high, that’s where the market was.

Unless Holland took the Carolina approach to Dougie Hamilton and said “No way, we aren’t signing you for that.” But Carolina has an abundance of excellent D men and could afford to lose a Dougie Hamilton and use the $9 mil elsewhere on the roster.

Edm does not have an abundance of high quality d men. And I do think Nurse it super tight with McDavid and that does matter.

Nurse is still Edmonton’s best overall D man. He’s on pace for his 40 points. He is munching minutes like usual and that’s always been who he is. The day the ink dried most people on here agreed it would be hard for Darnell to live up to the $9 Mil per year contract, but that’s not Darnell’s fault.

hopeoil

It’s Ken Hollands fault. He didn’t have a gun to his head summer of 2021.

Reja

By trading Caleb Jones for Keith opened up money for Seth Jones to sign for large in Chicago which in turn drove up Nurses value. As a G.M you have to identify your core players and pay them accordingly. If the Nurse signing keeps Leon and Connor here for another 4-5 years when their contract are up I’m all for overpaying Nurse a couple of Million.

Harpers Hair

You know what?

Nurse isn’t even in the top 20 for average TOI/GP. (21st)

Makar leads the league with almost 3 minutes more per game.

One would expect a #1D at his pay grade to easily handle more minutes so using that as an excuse rings hollow.

Harpers Hair

Spector on the Marek show just now…

Nurse got that contract because he is McDavid’s best friend and Holland had to worry about re-signing McDavid down the line.

Oh my.

90s fan

It’s not oh my. Nurse signing does not guarantee Conner signs. But letting him go may guarantee connor goes. Same with Drai.

These guys want to soak up the entire cap, then thats their prerogative. But they go in with eyes open, knowing that it also hurts their shot at a better roster. Connor know this. He’s talked about this balance. And either way, if they are willing to sign, pay them what it takes.

Harpers Hair

Pay them what it takes is not really a winning strategy in a cap environment.

Oilerguy

I’ve been saying this since the signing

OriginalPouzar

Nurse plays more minutes than Makar at 5 on 5 and more minutes than Makar on the PK. Makar only plays more on the PP.

meanashell11

This is not new news.

godot10

Take away power play time. Now where is Nurse in even strength plus PK TOI/GP.

None of Nurse’s minutes are easy minutes.

maudite

If the guy who has delivered above value on contracts and has been worth roughly 7 – 8 million is the problem. And the fact that team managed to paint into corner where it had little leverage right as market spike occurred on contracts for top pairing level defenders where one, in fuzzy hindsight, can argue he’s maybe 1.5 million over on long term contract.

They are focused on wrong problem.

There are a dozen paper cuts that lead to hole on 2nd pairing LHD or different dynamic on RHD. Overplaying Darnell isn’t Darnell nurse’s fault.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Redbird62

I believe that Klefbom’s shoulder is the single biggest reason for there currently being a “hole” on the Oilers’ left D. That is neither a paper cut nor a self inflicted wound. I don’t care what anyone else says, Duncan Keith more than an adequately filled that gap last season. Holland actually hoped he would stay that one more season. However, because Keith retired, it gave Holland the cap space to sign Kane. He had expected that a strong forward group combined with Kulak and growth in Broberg and Bouchard, overall the team would still be very solid. Kane’s injury, combined with Broberg’s injury at camp and Bouchard having somewhat of a sophomore slump has impacted that plan. His plan still has plenty of time to come to fruition.

Harpers Hair

Perhaps acquiring a 38 year old defenseman was not the best option for replacing Klefbom.

Since Holland seems to have drafted Broberg because he knew Klefbom was not returning, he should have looked at younger D options with term to fill the hole.

#2 LD are not all that hard to find…sems self inflicted to me.,

maudite

I agree with you here. Just had to say that out loud.

106 and 106
  • 2 points out of second in the division
  • With Eakins and his 2 regulation win Ducks up next.
  • Things are looking up!
jp

Lol.

But yeah, there’s definitely lots of room for standings mobility in both directions.

Current Western Conference standings by games over/under .500:
VGK +13
WPG +10
DAL +10
SEA +6
MIN +5
COL +4
EDM +4
LAK +4
————-
CGY +2
VAN 0
NSH 0
STL -1
ARI -5
SJS -6
CHI -10
ANA -12

jtblack

the PACIFIC is the worst division this year (thankfully).

Seattle has cooled off.
L.A. is a -11 goal differential. Even there play by play guy admitted he wasn’t sure how they were winning games, as they can’t stop the puck.
CALGARY is in neutral and may stay that way.

So the path is there for the Oilers. Weak schedule ahead. Add some pieces at the Deadline. Edmonton SHOULD BE #1 or #2 in the division by season’s end.

But that’s the low bar. The real question will be: Can they beat Dallas, Vegas, Minny or a healthy Avalanche team?

jp

the PACIFIC is the worst division this year

There’s a very small difference in divisional vs conference games played these days, so everyone in the WC is on almost identical footing regarding opponents.

The difference is 3 or 4 games for divisional opponents vs. 3 games for teams in the conference but outside the division.

That’s to say the Oilers are essentially playing (or will by the end of the season) the same quality of teams as Dallas, Colorado and Minnesota.

106 and 106
  • Forgot to add, I think the team is a 2LD (basically, another Keith) away from a pretty dope roster.
McSorley33

It appears Woody’s honeymoon is -finally- over. That was a long one…

Wearing out the top 5 now so when in the playoffs teams ( most teams, not all) will ground & pound you with 4 fresh lines.

Playing McDavid and Drai together will not bode well for playoff success either imo.

McDavid PKing?

maudite

Mps, 2nd pick that became barbashev & 3rd -> perron

Perron -> Colonel klinkhammer and 1st rnd that became barzal

barzal & 2nd round pick -> Reinhart

That trade tree is such self induced gut shot wound still…value all the way along, that could still be helping team, until you get to overripe clearly non magic bean end.

As an aside -> I would target barbashev as a ufa next off season.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
the-winston

I really want to like Nurse, but we’re not winning any cups with Nurse as our #1 D.

Shamus23

Nurse was terrible all night.
Nice to see McDavid call out the league. The Coach should have as well as the GM. Screw fines.
Shore has to go. Missed an open netter
put Holloway up on Nuge’s wing already. Janmark fumbles the puck way too much
Should have never lost that game

dustrock

It doesn’t help the locker room when rookies get stapled to the bench after a mistake but veterans who should know better get to skate out there for the entire OT.

W

This is started to become a reoccurring theme on blogs, one that I also suspect. How are the players that are responsibly defensive feel about watching the overplayed stars fumbling that game away. I wonder if they sat around the dressing room with a beer rehashing the game or did they get dressed and got the hell out as fast as they could.

MushedPeas

Hear what you’re saying, but only one star I’d call overpaid currently. Well, him and the new guy.

Durag

The lost point stings, but I will take Lowetide bullseyeing a 15-game month as a sign the Oilers are going to win Stanley, and we’re right on course for that.

Nurse needs to shake off the weight of that new contract in a damn hurry. It wasn’t just the pass, but the decision to go behind the net and reset in the first place that betrays a huge amount of self doubt. There was a free and easy route out of the zone and a confident Nurse would have had that puck moving north.

It was a big scheisse happens night indeed and if Barrie and Shore hadn’t flubbed open net chances and Binnington hadn’t pulled flailing saves out of his ass on Nuge and Yamo, we would be having a different conversation.

A positive I’m taking away is that Nuge-Janmark-Yamo looked like a very good line and gives me dreams of 3 powerful lines.

McDavid-Kane-XX
Drai-XX-Hyman
Nuge-Janmark-Yamo

If a RW and a LW can step up, McLeod, Jesse, Foegele, Holloway, Bourgault being the best internal candidates, or Holland can get those pieces, we could be cooking with gas come playoffs.

maudite

Yes! I saw clear open passing lane to wing. Was confused when he doubled back instead of jail break. But 29 minutes of ice into game likely not firing on all cylinders.

Nurse has exceptional athleticism, dogged desire to continuous improve off ice – but no better than decent on ice awareness. That’s not a knock that’s a reason to not run horse that hard into ground as higher probability susceptible to errors that can’t physically simply be recovered from.

dustrock

Watching the game live, I was pleased to be part of a historic (for me) moment when the Blues started the game with the wrong line-up.

We were giving it to Binnington early, especially after Hyman’s goal, but he played well.

Echo the comments from all here about coaching. The team could have been rolling, St. Louis live at the Garden looked like they were sleepwalking but the Oilers didn’t pounce.

There’s no killer instinct in this team.

The D sags so easily and they just concede the NZ and blue line every single goddamn time.

LT, you’re saying Bouchard played poorly and we didn’t see the outlet passes? He didn’t play enough, and there weren’t many options. The team shape is like an amoeba at this point.

Roll your 4 lines, play your 2 other D pair.

Thing about Nurse and Ceci is, to my eye at least, they aren’t that much better than the rest.

This team doesn’t believe, McDavid scored a beauty in the 2nd period essentially because he was pissed off.

The tying goal everyone in the arena could see coming, and Woodcroft played it conservative by putting Nurse-Ceci out there. He doesn’t trust anybody but 5-6 players on this team.

McDavid and Draisaitl were obviously gassed by the shootout.

If anyone deserves to be benched, it’s Woodcroft.

Durag

Totally agree with you re Nurse-Ceci on the late PP.

The Oilers are a great puck possession team on the PP and had given up 2 SH goals all season before last night. McDavid – the fastest guy in the league, usually plays the point and I’m not too worried about his recovery speed. Playing overly conservative is a risk unto itself and it bit us in the ass.

jp

And I thought they’d played a good third till that last 30 seconds. They came in with the lead, kept pushing and had the better of the chances.

Bruce McCurdy

Officially a shorthanded goal, but for all intent & purposes scord 5v5. Woodcroft had every reason to have 2 d-men out there rather than the regular PP. The expectation is that at least 1 of the 2 will make a play.

Victoria Oil

Bruce, on a somewhat unrelated note, I read your CoH player grades from last night. I appreciate your insights and balanced views as always. However, I was wondering if Craig Binnington is related to Jordan Billington? 😀

Bruce McCurdy

oh crap.

Durag

It was 5v5 because the 2 irregular PP defencemen bobbled the puck at the blue line despite a clean faceoff win. I think with the regular 5v4 unit that puck never leaves the o-zone

Bruce McCurdy

But if it does (& icing is free, remember), you’re defending a 1-goal lead 5v5 with only 1 d-man out there. That doesn’t seem smart.

Couldn’t have worked out any worse, I will freely admit.

Redbird62

If Nurse’s pass goes under the shaft of Tarasenko’s stick, it would have looked like a good decision today. I think Nurse might have gone along the boards with it, but the ref was up against the glass in the corner, and he has been burned before on such attempts hitting the ref. Hindsight is 20/20 but it was the right decision, poor execution.

Redbird62

On November 21 in a shoot out win against Dallas, MacKinnon logged 29:50 seconds of ice time including 3:41 in OT, both times more than what McDavid played last night. Mikko Rantanen played 28:16 in that same game including 2:37 in OT. Makar played 32 minutes in that game as well. Both MacKinnon and Rantanen participated in the shootout with Rantanen scoring while Mackinnon’s shot was saved.

So should Colorado’s coach be benched or because his gassed players were fortunate enough to win the toss up shoot out, all is good? BTW Dallas tying goal was with 26 seconds to go in the game, so the Colorado coach ran his 3 stars ragged in a 3rd period in which they held the lead for over 17 minutes.

leadfarmer

If Nurse was a UFA right now what contract would he get offered? 7mil? Maybe but not for 8 years

MushedPeas

I think Nurse will be Nurse for a long time. It’s a risk, but not opposed to 7Mx8, this season inclusive, in a rising cap world. If only that’s where it had landed.

W

.

McSorley33

I am an OG Nurse fan -still am. ( co-chair with Godot since his draft)

But even opposition players are mocking his salary. The chirps hurt because there
is an element of truth to it.

Shamus23

Nurse plays waaaaaaay too many minutes. That is part of the problem. It is obvious when he is playing that much he is not mentally in it for the entire game. That is on the coach. I don’t think he is a legite top pairing D man unless he could have a stud playing next to him. He would be a lot better playing 20 minutes every night and probably on a 2nd pairing. He is a 6-6.5 mill D man if he brings his physical game ( which he does have in the tool box) every night. Ceci is not a top pairing guy either . Sure they are our top pairing guys because we have no better ones. That is on Holland . Even if you get a really good shutdown top 4 D man, Nurse and Cecil’s minutes would be less and I think they would be better.
Do not go get Klingberg. He is having a terrible year. Go and pay for Chykrun. He is getting his hockey legs back up to full strength after his long layoffs and is looking really good. He plays a very good D game and is smart and can skate .

LMHF#1

They need McLeod back very badly. He adds more to this team than most realize.

Shamus23

Yes. Shore is brutal.

McSorley33
  • Klim Kostin drew a penalty, had a shot on goal, two HDSC and blocked a shot. He gets a lot done and does stand out in the Oilers bottom six.
  • *******************************************************************

Free Klim Kostin….he does stand out from the Oilers bottom 6. Big time.

Free him from Devin Shore and Derek Ryan.

hopeoil

I truly do not see what Woodcroft sees in Devin Shore. He is a negative out there and has been for his entire tenure as an Oiler

godot10

Woodcroft doesn’t see anything in Devin Shore. Since taking over, Shore has been the last option always.

OriginalPouzar

Well, he is 60% goal share on the season….. of course, he has been negative for years and, now that his PK is meh and he isn’t used much there…………..

Of course, the replacement option for last night was Brad Malone……..

Now the question is, who comes out for Foegele, Hamblin or Shore….