That’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle during the 2012-13 season. The Oklahoma City Barons graduated some fine talent, and during that lockout season the top prospects spent some time in the minors. It was good for the gifted kids to get their exercise, but it didn’t help the hopefuls who saw playing time squeezed. Men like Teemu Hartikainen and Toni Rajala could have benefited from 20 games with one of those brilliant talents, but if there was chemistry it didn’t show up in the recalls and future NHL players among the hopefuls. There’s something similar happening to the current Oilers, right now.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer make the NHL leap next season?
- New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers’ Philip Broberg’s progress as an NHL defenceman
- DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
- Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- DNB: Connor McDavid questions NHL rules, Darnell Nurse’s gaffes prove costly in Oilers loss
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- DNB: If the Oilers can trade Jesse Puljujarvi, where is he likely to end up?
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is redefining his role
- DNB: The Oilers don’t need someone like Zack Kassian. They need more efforts like this
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 4-4-2, 10 points in 10 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 17-14-2, 36 points in 33 games
The Oilers remain in a playoff spot but might be on the outside looking in at Christmas. This game saw the team in chase mode for the entire evening, and Edmonton is now on a pace that would land 89 standings points and multiple changes in the organization. The point should not be dismissed, it could be important. The difference between November (tough schedule) and December (less difficult) is the major deal here. The Oilers should go 3-2-0 in the last five games to land 7-6-2, 15 points in 15 games.
Last night’s game should be considered a win for the Oilers. Why? The team was outplayed by a motivated and improved Predators team that is beginning to get healthy.
I think the coaching staff has to consider breaking up the big line. There’s a popgun feel to the offense when the McDavid trio is at rest, with most of the goals coming on the power play if we’re honest. There’s a way to marble in the youth on this team, and in my opinion Dylan Holloway and Jesse Puljuarvi are two candidates who can help. If the Oilers run three centers three in the middle, then wing sets of Hyman-Puljujarvi, Holloway-Yamamoto and Janmark-Foegele/Kostin make sense. I don’t see a good reason the coaching staff should remain stubborn on the No. 1 line. This team isn’t winning games and the top line is staying together. Unusual.
SUMMARY
- Leon Draisaitl looked tired or injured at times, but also showed great bursts of speed as well. He had four shots, three HDSC, a couple of giveaways and won 7 of 15 in the dot. He was the least productive of the top line forwards, but was productive.
- Connor McDavid had two assists, one shot and a takeaway. Great, great pass to Nuge for his first goal, nice feed on the second one, too. His line struggled at times to get out of the zone, and McDavid at five-on-five was 10-8 shots, 10-3 HDSC and 0-1 goals. For the season, at five-on-five, he is 25-26 goals, 49 percent. McDavid has never been below 50 percent in a season.
- Zach Hyman had seven shots, six HDSC and almost won the game in overtime on a point-blank chance Jusse Saros found a way to deny.
- Mattias Janmark had one shot, one HDSC (it was a great look), a giveaway and a blocked shot. He’s playing too high in the lineup, but the coaching staff uses the other options on the third line.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a great game. Two goals, five shots, one HDSC and won nine of 13 on the dot. That’s a helluva night. Nuge now has 17 goals in 33 games. His career high is 28. Stay healthy, 93. Late change in overtime being blamed for the OT winner, looked to me like he got off in time.
- Kailer Yamamoto had two shots, two takeaways and three hits. One of them was clearly a charging call that was not called. He’s feeling better now, whatever the early season malady it appears to be gone.
- Warren Foegele had one shot, one HDSC, drew two penalties and had a takeaway. That’s a productive night for third-line winger.
- Dylan Holloway had one shot, one hit, a takeaway and won just two of seven in the faceoff circle. He had some looks but nothing rhymed. Speed was on display all night. The Oilers should run this line again. 11-10 Corsi five-on-five, he played 10:54 in the discipline and that’s two games in a row around 11 minutes.
- Jesse Puljujarvi scored a goal, his second of the season. Later, he had a nice look on a two-on-one and ripped it. Confidence and this young man make for success. I hope he reels off eight more before New Year’s Day. Two shots and a takeaway.
- Klim Kostin took a penalty, it was a weak call by the official. Four hits. He didn’t get any good looks I can recall. Kostin does work hard without the puck and is physical.
- Devin Shore made a great defensive play on what might have been a sure goal. Also had two shots, two HDSC and won two of five in the dot.
- Derek Ryan had one shot on goal and took several hits. He worked hard to get pucks deep. Spent 16 seconds on the PK and went 0-1. That’s bad luck.
- Darnell Nurse led the Oilers with over 27 minutes played. He picked up an assist, three shots, two HDSC, one giveaway and finished 1-0 goals at five-on-five. Nurse was 25-27 Corsi five-on-five. Created three rebounds, expected goals five-on-five 56 percent.
- Cody Ceci was 13-24 Corsi five-on-five, a wildly different result than Nurse. That’s reflected in the time away from each other spent by the top pairing and perhaps it’s an indication of things to come. Slow to react on the Matt Duchene goal. Ceci had one shots on goal, one GV and one TK.
- Brett Kulak had the puck going in a good direction and that was breaking news on a night where they weren’t many Oilers at 50 percent possession. Mobile defender, he contributes and is effective.
- Tyson Barrie picked up an assist , two shots and one HDSC. He was on the ice for 16-8 shots at five-on-five and honestly it’s been like this for some time.
- The time on ice five-on-five with McDavid for defensemen was fascinating last night. Nurse (8:09) and Ceci (7:00 led the way, with Evan Bouchard (6:21), Brett Kulak (5:33) and Tyson Barrie (5:31) following. Markus Niemelainen got five minutes. What does that tell us? The coaching staff wasn’t as concerned with McDavid’s defensive partners than one would think.
- Evan Bouchard had one takeaway, a hit and a shot block. He did have some nice passes and one promising sortie he led into the Nashville end but he lost control of the puck as the peak moment in the pay arrived. Le sigh. Bouchard hasn’t had an impact game since Manhattan late in November.
- Markus Niemelainen played 13:10, he four hits, and to my eye was more effective in not only clearing the puck from possible danger but also having a better touch on his chips, shots and passes. He’s progressing.
Jack Campbell stopped nine of 11 HDSC and kept the team in the game long enough for Nuge to tie the score. He still hasn’t delivered an ‘oh wow’ performance but he was solid for the second game in a row. He will get opportunities to win over fans. The signing of Stuart Skinner is an interesting side story, but the big news in the crease remains Campbell’s inability to play a consistent game.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A complete review of the Oilers game last night and we’ll look at the Monday nighter, MLB winners and losers this offseason and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Thought to try to have a look at Dmen like Subban to see how often they fall off at age 29 or 30. Potentially relevant to how Nurse wukk age.
Lots of ways to pick a sample of players. I used AAV. This is all the Dmen on Capfriendly who’ve signed deals with a cap hit equivalent to $8M or more today. They could be any age when the deal was signed, and I only included deals/players who’ve gotten into their early 30’s at this point.
How did their games hold up? (this is a pretty rough summary of performance based on TOI, scoring and sometimes goal differential).
Roman Josi – still strong age 32
Brent Burns – going strong at age 37
Victor Hedman – going strong at age 32
PK Subban – began to fall off age 29, still played 22 min age 31. 2nd/3rd pair age 32.
Alex Pietrangelo – still going strong at age 32
Kris Letang – still going strong at age 35
Shea Weber – still playing 24 minutes at age 34, 22:30 at age 35.
Ryan Suter – still playing 26+ min age 33, now down to 21:30 age 37.
Erik Karlsson – injury problems but has never dropped below 23:30 a game as of age 32.
Drew Doughty – still going strong at age 32/33
Zdeno Chara – played through age 44
Duncan Keith – still strong through age 35, remained a top pair to 37, 2nd pair age 38
Wade Redden – solid year at 31, cliff at 32.
Brian Campbell – went strong until 34, still playing 22+ minutes at 36. Signed another deal at 37
Dan Boyle – Went strong until 36/37. Signed another 2 year deal after.
Dion Phaneuf – Went strong through age 31 season. 20 min/game age 32. 15min/game age 33. Buyout.
Kimmo Timonen – Went pretty strong until age 37/38 seasons. Still quite decent at 39.
Not that big a sample size, 17 defensemen.
-3 of them went off the rails in their early 30’s (Subban, Redden, Phaneuf).
-A number of current players (4 of them) are ~32 now and still going strong.
-All the rest (10 of them) played at a high level until age 34, 35 or later.
-Higher end players aging like Subban does happen, but it’s not particularly common.
-Even the 3 guys who did flame out early were still good players in their age 31 seasons.
-The large majority of high salary guys were good through their mid-30’s (or look like they will be for the current 32/33 year-olds)
Whether anyone wants to extrapolate anything about Nurse from this is up to them. A reminder that Nurse is in his age 27 season now, and the final year of this deal will be his age 34 season.
Elite skaters usually fall off the cliff later.
there could be other factors that we don’t know about with PK in why his skills diminished relatively early compared to his peers.
in my mind, Nurse will be a good hockey player for quite some time yet.
Precisely correct. And most of us know this. It has been discussed here a lot over the years.
Here’s a fun twist on his list.
If you could trade Nurse straight across for one of those players at the exact age Nurse is today, who would you not trade Nurse for (aside from Subban, Phaneuf, and Redden)?
Yes, agreed.
Thanks for that.
In terms of your methodology, some could make the argument that Nurse is overpaid.
If you select his cohort based upon salary, and he’s overpaid, then you’re comparing him to a different tier of defensemen.
Indeed, at least 7 of those on your list are Norris trophy winners and some were among the best in the league who haven’t or didn’t win (Pietrangelo, Weber, and Suter)
The Athletic’s playing card for Nurse has him at $6.2m value.
Nurse was 7th in Norris voting last year. Has he ever finished higher than that?
The year before last…after his offensive heater.
I left a fair bit of leeway on the salary ($8M equivalent), but clearly if one is arguing about whether or not Nurse is a ‘1st pair’ defenseman then they won’t see much value in this.
I want to like Dom’s model and projections, but I can’t wrap my head around Nurse with a 1.1 projected GSVA (the basis for the $6.2M number) when the same model had Nurse’s value at 1.9 GSVA in each of the previous 2 seasons (which would be $8.5M or $8.8M or something).
the athletic card also has barrie at 8.4 mil. does this instantly mean you think barrrie is worth 8.4 mil?
FWIW, on the Norris trophy winners, a bunch of them didn’t get to that point until after age 27.
Karlsson was the youngest winner (after his age 21 and 24 seasons).
Subban was next, his win was after age 23 season.
Keith next, won after age 26 and 31 seasons.
Doughty won his only (so far) after his age 27 season.
Josi won after his age 29 season.
Chara won his first/only after his age 31 season.
Burns won after his age 31 season.
You’re welcome to discount Nurse as a part of this group, but many of these players apparently didn’t peak until after age 27.
Also, to the original point. Even if you discount Nurse as part of this group, the Subban trajectory you used as an example is quite an unusual outcome. One could actually more easily find higher end players who peak after 27 than who burn out around age 30.
Didn’t Subban have significant decline due to injury? Or am I just making that up?
Back issues was the word on the street, but likely in combination with team system play.
This is an interesting article:
https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2020/06/10/pk-subban-went-from-best-to-worst-with-devils/amp/
I didn’t read €√¥£€^$ article, but at minimum injuries contributed to his retirement at 33.
Let’s talk about Chychrun.
I admittedly haven’t watched him much.
This season, Arizona is showcasing him for a trade by playing him on the top pairing with
notquiteasgoodasTysonBarriethe Ghost (who’s playing his off wing).Spector describes him as “a puck moving dman”
JFresh describes him as “a 6’2 220 lb two-way defender whose main attributes are his shot, his defensive stick, and his puck battling. ”
I have talked to a few of the AJHL players who follow and cite JFresh.
He’s having a major 2nd assist heater this year.
1.36 second assists/60 at 5v5.
He doesn’t kill penalities.
He’s playing 22 minutes per night.
I read an article (don’t know where, can’t find it now) on him that according to some Sportloqiq data, there were some individual defensive stats that showed him a positive light.
oilers would have this data.
unless the asking price is astronomical, I’d be surprised if the Oilers haven’t at least looked at him quietly as they could.
Padre!
Welcome back, sir.
Some random Twitter dude with Chychrun tape.
https://twitter.com/papa_mcleod
This is great and certainly makes me look at him in a different light… injury record still a concern though, is it not?
You lost me at Spector
How’re you going?
Where in Oz are you located?
An offensive zone draw win, some battle on the board, Bailey with a strong player to get it across the line to Kemp who beat the tender from distance with a bomb to tie it early in the 3rd.
Whoa, Lavoie takes a one-timer pass from Malone just across the line on a 2 on 2 and scores from distance. That was a grade B but a great shot by Ralph in his first game back.
Now THAT was a fun period to watch as a Condors’ fan – they could finish but did donate the period and outshot Colorado 17-4.
No score after one.
Of note, for as much as the Condors’ have struggle, Rodrigue is 10th in save percentage (I think it was save percentage that Holty mentioned – I’ll have to confirm).
Did Demers have a little extra pep in his step?
Rodrigue mentions that he started working with a sports psychologist somewhat recently.
I presume this is becoming the norm as opposed to the exception.
Should be mandatory for goalies. Maybe a guru too…
No Tullio again, eh?
Any word on his status?
How is Max Gildon looking? Do you/Munny/LT/Bruce see any difference between this stint and 2 seasons ago?
Gildon and Kesselring are the team’s two best d-men.
He’s a real prospect.
Tulio continues to be sick with the flu.
Connor McDavid has 64 points in 33 games, thats a 6 million + contract right there in only 33 games, the mind boggles. The unattainable 2 ppg might be attainable for this guy. Two guys have done this in NHL history… Stevie Y so close in 88-89… enjoy this year folks!
Peak McDavid (offensively) keeps changing as he continues to improve offensively.
He’s putting up those points while being “meh” (for him) at 5 on 5.
He’s got 11 5 on 5 assists, 11…… he is normally at about 0.5 assists per game at 5 on 5. That WILL regress up (but I think the PPP will regress down).
Yzerman spent the next half decade continually missing or losing in the playoffs until Bowman threatened to trade him to Ottawa unless he started playing a 200 foot game.
The Gretzky McDavid commercial is really getting to me. The unimaginable person that signed off on this commercial should be Tarred and Feathered once a month for the rest of there existence.
It was Chiarelli, I’ve been Tarring and Feathering him everyday except for the last Sunday each month, 1 more day a month can be arranged by someone else.
.
Evan Bouchard had 31 5 on 5 points last year – that’s one of the highest totals for a d-man under 22 of all time and he has pedigree of a very high end PP guy.
Most young d-men have many ups and downs and struggles.
Do not trade this player for anything short of a package with a very very very good return.
100%.
He also had a positive goal differential last year. Over 53% shots and xGoals this year and last.
Bouchard will be OK.
Bouchard has only 9 even strength points this season…54th among defensemen and, of course, is -15.
Which Bouchard is real ?
What is happening with Norris Hughes? Has he scored a goal yet?
No.
But he does have 13 EVP and 27 points overall.
Good for 6th in the league.
It took Hughes until game 27 to register his second hit of the season. You can have all the points in the world as a defenseman, but if you can’t be a little bit physical…. good luck.
Better yet, this is Bouchard’s second full season. Hughes second full season saw him finish with a -24 in 56 games…. ouch.
Bouchard on pace for -37….and he’s older than Hughes.
Ouch.
Hughes will go play in Jersey as soon as he possibly can.
Maybe he’ll just request a trade like everyone else in Vancouver. Lol
FACTS:
Quinn Hughes DOB: Oct 14, 1999.
5 primary points in 499 5v5 minutes = 0.61 Pts/60
Cap Hit: $7.85 million
Evan Bouchard DOB: Oct 20, 1999
5 primary points in 484 minutes = 0.62 Pts/60
Cap Hit: $863,333
In FACT Hughes is older, but fact-checking is apparently inconvenient for you.
If Woodguy still dropped in, he’d chime in with his “hockey is mostly goalie” speech.
Currently the Oilers have the 12th worst overall SV.
Goaltending is currently a problem overall with Captain Jack as the crux of the problem.
Captain Jack owns the 58th best (3rd worst) SV% for goalies over 400 min at 5v5.
He’s at the bottom of the pile on PK SV% 46th best (over 50 min).
What’s Sean Burke doing these days?
He’s allegedly the “current director of goaltending for the Vegas Golden Knights”.
99% of ppl agree that part of Edmonton’s iffy start is due to some injuries (Kane, McLeod, Foggy, Yam Fry, etc).
So to think this team will go through 50 more regular season games and 2 months of playoffs without injuries is foolhardy. That is why KH can’t just nibble around the edges at the deadline.
I know a lot of teams have loaded up and NOT won the Cup. That’s how it goes. But you cannot argue that the last 3 CUP WINNERS made major acquisitions the deadline (year) before they won the CUP.
To NOT load up is basically mailing the postseason in and hoping to get hot and win 1 or 2 rounds. B/C we know that the Top 5 or 6 teams, who are already better than Edmonton, will add key pieces at the deadline.
There is still a “timing” factor in this though.
The Oilers have some legit futures they can trade but they aren’t overly flush and, when the bullets are used, they are gone.
I’m not saying not to “go for it” this season but being in LTIR and with essentially no cap space, being dollar for dollar, makes it hard and makes each acquisition a tougher transaction and more expensive.
With Klefbom and Smith’s contracts expiring, presumably, the Oilers will FINALL not be in LTIR next season and will (a) being operating with some in-season cap space, (b) accrue cap space to bank and use later and (c) be able to pro-rate annal cap hits of acquired players.
Its a MASSIVE difference and I hope they have real bullets when they are actually able to make big splashes.
Good info
Wait too long and Drai and/or McDavid leave town though.
Clock is rapidly approaching midnight on these guys contracts.
I am concerned that lack of depth scoring, team defence, iffy goaltending and an ailing Leon has significantly impacted results. I am worried that Leon needs to be load-managed and is potentially just making his ailment worse by playing in games. When will he have a chance at optimal healing if he plays so many friggin minutes? Without Leo, this team won’t win very many games and a perma-injured Drai might have to be shut-down for the season early.
With this in mind and it being such a deep draft no one likes to think this team won’t be in the playoffs, but it is a very real possibility. In light of this, wouldn’t it be better to sit this one out, acquire a couple picks if possible, rather than clear out the prospect cupboards for a possible futile exercise?
I am leaning in this direction and with Holland being such a cautious GM, this could be the way he might be leaning. This is one of those in-season ebb moments, so it is too easy to be pessimistic about everything, but I am getting worn out by this team and my hope is at an all-time low.
The last thing I want to see is Holland throwing away a bunch picks and prospects. That Anthanasiou trade was brutal. I called it at the time. This organization is honestly still suffering for this and several other ill-advised draft pick disposal exercises over the past 7 years.
How often do teams come off a crazy good playoff run, start the next season as one of the top Stanley contenders, only to miss the playoffs or make a premature exit. Then the next season brome a contender again? I am sure it is an injury thing, caused by I healed ailments carried over into the next season. Is Nurse actually fully healed?
I think JP has had some issues this year with respect to confidence in making plays on his own. I loved that he held onto that puck to beat two Preds on the zone entry (even if the actual goal was a little lucky). More please!
His shooting percentage this year is 4.2%. Half of his career norm.
I’m predicting a bounce back from this player.
Reasonable expectation for him would be 0.5 PPG. He is about 9 points (!) off that pace at the moment. He would need to run at 0.67 PPG from here on out to get there. Steep, but not impossible.
Would love to see Holloway – Nuge – Puljujarvi going forward.
If we’re going after Chychrun … I’d rather trade Bouchard than Broberg. I have zero interest in offering Bouchard the Klefbom contract. This player is more Justin Schultz than Oskar Klefbom. Ever since his draft year, he’s been touted to have good offensive tools and terrible defensive awareness. That hasn’t changed … Bouchard is what he is … let someone else pay him long term for too much. He’ll have more trade cache anyways.
Broberg still has one more year on his ELC after this season. He’s cheap and better in the D-zone than Bouchard.
Barrie is a better PP QB than Bouchard and been overall superior to Bouchard in all aspects. Stop trying to trade away the only defenseman who is actually living up to his contract.
Bouchard, JP and a future pick or prospects for Chychrun is far more palatable than multiple 1st round picks, Broberg and JP.
The same Justin Schultz that was a top-4 dman on a cup winning team in Pittsburgh?
Broberg cannot stay healthy. Its a thing.
This is perfectly sensible and Arizona may put more value on the RHD.
However that would be balanced by Jesse having negative so I’m guessing they would hold out for a younger, cheaper forward with more upside.
I think a 2nd for Gost is more palatable than either, myself.
Yep. Keep the Broberg, give the Bouchard.
I would trade neither.
Bouchard is ahead of where Nurse was at the same age. Broberg has missed time, but as Godot has alluded to, the org gets to bear a bit of that for trotting him out there while he has been injured.
The exact same thing happened to Broberg during the WJC (playing hurt, then having a subpar rest of the season in the SEL).
The hardest thing is to be patient. Broberg, Bouchard, and Holloway will play important roles on this team.
Even if Bouch is never a great defensive D he is hard to replace. He has an all world set of shots. He was relied upon in junior to be an all round top D, he has done it
With the right partner which is completely normal to have to do – balance pairs – he’ll be fine. Like last year where the much smaller Keith told him to stand his ground and he started to play better
I like Bro, but he’s to me not showing a lot of hockey IQ. Which is why he has always been steered to the defensive side even in Sweden, for a guy with his skating ability. Like Kesselring in the A, loads of physical tools but coaches at higher levels are telling him he’s not going to be an offensive D
Bro is a really valuable player, but Bouch has the game changer talent that is rare. We’ve already seen it, that shot beats goalies clean from distance. When he’s settled he’s a deadly passer and Bouch Bomber
If I was his coach I’d get ‘tape’ isolated and have him watch loads of Pietrangelo and Lidstrom. He has to find how to be effective without being physical a lot because that’s not who he is
We’re not going after Chychrun. Or likely any D that is a) expensive to acquire, or b) has a cap hit more than say 1.2M or so, or c) both.
Tough too for Holland to evaluate exactly how much oomph this team needs when the team isn’t playing to their potential and leave points behind like Hansel & Gretl leave bread crumbs.
If they don’t pull up their socks and solidify a playoff position, my vote is no trade
I guess the $1.2M thing is based on your preference for a forward add?
I would prioritize a Dman as the probable most expensive add, and expect ~$3M of forward salary going to other way.
So I don’t think I’d cap a Dman add at $1.2M, though it’s true the priority could be elsewhere (or there may not be any salary going out).
In Justin Schultz’s best 5 on 5 year, he had 23 points. Bouchard had 31 last season.
The offensive ceiling for Evan Bouchard is approaching top of the league and we know the it often takes years for defensive games to fully develop – shit, look at Codi Ceci.
Its hard to say Broberg is better defensively than Bouchard right now when he’s never played the quantity nor quality (QoC) that Bouch does in a game – there may have been one game last year.
I agree that Bouchard has more offensive upside than Schultz, but when Schultz scored 19 points 5 on 5 in 74 games in 2013/14 (his first full season at age 23 since the league only played 48 games the season before, where he managed 11) he was playing for a team that only managed 121 – 5 on 5 goals all season compared to the team getting 181 goals last season in that game state. Overall league scoring is up almost 20% since that time period.
OP – you and others are massively over-rating Bouchard; despite people stating over and over again that Barrie skills were duplicated by Bouchard, and that we should shed Barrie ASAP, Bouchard has been an inferior version of Barrie in both ends of the ice and all game states. I’d trade Bouchard before the shine wears off him like it did with Jesse.
You are certainly entitled to that opinion but I will respectfully disagree.
Firstly, I personally never talked about Barrie/Bouch duplicating skills. They are both offensive puck moving d-men but do so with different primary skills.
Also, you compare Bouchard and Barrie without any credence to age and future trajectories and like Bouch is a finished product and these 32 games are what we’ll get going forward (without any credence to a massive season for age last year). The man is still on his ELC with so much road ahead.
I am very aware of Barrie’s value to the Oilers and have recently called him the Oilers best D this year. He has clearly been better than Bouchard. Of course, he’s 8 years older and I’m not going the 10th overall, very high pedigree player, with a history of success in the NHL already, while on his ELC, unless the return is, well, substantial.
Fair enough but I would say that Bouchard’s 31 5 on 5 points last year is top 5 (I think) all-time for d-man under 22 – his offensive season was underrated.
he may have been top 5 all time under 22 in 5v5 points
but did he look that way?
or did he look like a product of environment playing with 2 of the best players in history
bouchard really hasn’t looked like a creator of anything besides chaos
It might be top 5 since the league starting tracking this detail of a stat but I expect not all time. On a team basis scoring by strength only goes back to 2010 on the NHL website and for players back to 2007 on naturalstattrick. I am not sure where one can find data for 5 on 5 only from before this, but the the NHL publishes even strength scoring. Just a quick look and it shows that Orr, Coffey, Housley, Murphy, Bourque and Potvin all had multiple seasons where the scored more than 31 points at even strength by enough of a margin that they likely had more than 31 5 on 5 points. For example, Coffey between the ages of 20-22 scored 50, 57 and 70 even strength points. Many other players like Craig Hartsburg and Scott Stevens had over 40 EVP in their 21 year old season.
But top 5 since 2007, is still very very good. My main point, similar to Brogan’s is that Schultz’ talents around here continue to be underappreciated by a large section of the Edmonton fan base often referring to him as a 3rd pairing PP specialist. Within 2 seasons of his departure from Edmonton, he got 10 votes for the Norris Trophy and was a key component of the Penguins winning their second cup with Letang gone for half the regular season and all the playoffs. Over his tenure in Pittsburgh, he spent over 2/3 of his time on the ice five on five with either Crosby or Malkin.
Maybe Bouchard will go on to have a better career than Schultz, who is having another bounce back season with Seattle at 32. That would be great especially if he does it with the Oilers rather than doing it elsewhere.
Chychrun’s got the same amount of points as Bouchard in only 14 games, since returning from injury. Only 2 of his 13 points have come on the PP.
You guys are seriously over-rating Bouchard. Last season was a product of being partnered with a first ballot HOF. He looks lost in his own zone without Keith. And his offence is nothing to write home about this season either (just 10 5v5 points this season). He’s one dimensional, and that one dimension ain’t that impressive.
Last season’s point totals make him more valuable as a trade asset. That’s how a savvy GM should view Bouchard. We’re not going to be able to get another Keith to shelter him anymore. He’s been awful all season, and is a big reason why the Oilers have been terrible defensively (don’t get me started on Darnell “starfish” Nurse .. it’s too late to trade him now).
OP – you commented recently that you would give Bouchard the Klefbom contract. Well Chychrun already has that contract … for the same money, which guy would you rather have?
Bouchard, JP and a 1st round pick for Chychrun with 1 million retained. Chychrun is an upgrade on Bouchard, and the first is the cost for that upgrade.
Maybe its Philip Broberg that’s the key.
Didn’t play in the last 10 minutes against STL and they blow the lead.
Didn’t play in the last two games and they lost (well tied one and lost one outright).
I call plagiarism.
Where?
Or great minds think alike.
Why in god’s name is Janmark playing so much? And why is he better suited to those minutes than say, Holloway?
Janmark has no established level as a top 6 player. Zero. He has been around.
KY, JP have slumped this year but have been solid top 6 contributors (opposite wings, I know). Holloway IMO has played well given the limited minutes/role.
Is Janmark in the top 6 really something that helps you win games now or in the future?
My viewing of yesterday’s game was Janmark has no business being anything more than a third line guy.
I’ve had a theory most of the season as I watch the team leak goals against, often due to unforced errors from all over the lineup and a team defensive structure that doesn’t look like what we saw after Feb 10 last season.
I posted it a while back but think it may be appropriate to do it again.
I wonder if they learned some of the wrong lessons in the playoff run. Down the stretch Jay W. continued to talk about the details and the players did as well. As the games got more important, Jay talked about the game he was asking his players to play and how hard of a game it is to play. We saw in the playoffs the level that McDavid, for example, took his game. Not just the supernova scoring but the 2-way play and, in particular, the board play and the physicality. McDavid was the most physical player on the team. He initiated contact on almost ever puck battle and, with him, there are alot of pucks being battled for.
I wonder if they “learned” how hard it is to go on a long cup run and how taxing it is. I wonder if they “learned” that they can’t play that way for 82 games plus 2 months, that its too “hard” and taxing.
I wonder if they really do think they can, figuratively flip a switch?
What do unforced turnovers have to do with “hard” effort?
Yes that is almost a certainty.
I’ve been saying this for over a month, especially when the injuries hit.
The odd thing with this year so far? McDavid hasn’t had his points swoon yet and we know he’s got a heater coming in Feb/Mar.
It’s about peaking for this team. Home ice to an extent and peaking. Have everyone healthy and hitting their stride for the 2nd week of April.
Everything until then is just noise.
My take is that Drai and Hyman are not very good defensively. Or, they haven’t been this year.
It’s pretty damning that loading up the top line has hobbled 97 (by goal share), while making the other lines very low event.
A lot of down years from guys with established levels of ability. Coach has to wear some of that.
This is not accurate.
McD + Hyman + Drai = 14-9 gf/ga
McD w/o Hyman + Drai = 1-6 gf/ga
In truth, there’s little advantage to finishing 1st in the division, versus placing 2nd or 3rd. A date with Seattle, LA, or Calgary is as winnable (or moreso) as a date with likely wildcard winners Winnipeg, St Louis, or Minnesota.
Holland mentioned yesterday that a) the Oilers are in the mud puddle (Kenny’s so funny) with a group of teams, and that b) he’ll undoubtedly be shopping later in January / Feb.
Your theory is interesting, but fact is there are soft parts of the Oilers lineup that are easy to play against. Not having Kane and McLeod makes a big difference, and adds to the load the top of the lineup are being asked to carry. And like you say you can only play hard for a period until it wares you down.
When the Oilers get (and stay) healthy, and add a couple of key players for the stretch run they’ll be much less soft and will probably play a much more physical and robust game.
It would help if a few young & depth players would emerge as reliable options, and we should count our blessings that of all players Stuart Skinner has.
Interesting thought but hard to know when you’re not in the locker room.
Would suggest it’s not so much the wrong lessons of a long playoff run. It is however a long season. They may very well figure there’s plenty of time to right the ship because the most important thing is just getting in.
Exhibit 1: Tampa in 2018-19 – 2nd most points in the regular season for all the good it did them.
The bigger concern I’d suggest is bad habits are a learned behavior and those are very hard to turn off in playoff time. The team has had enough bad moments in the last week where a chance to earn 6 points turned into 2. We keep seeing this pattern.
Fact is it won’t be easy to get back to the place they were last year – let alone win the cup. Every team has to deal with injuries and the cap. That and a long season make it an endurance race which is mentally taxing as well.
We can’t know, but I actually think this is Woocroft’s plan to an extent too.
Obviously I don’t think he was planning on being just in a playoff spot around Christmas time and struggling as much as they are. But he has been talking right since the start of camp about getting better every day and continuing to build and improve and all that.
Seems to me like there is a plan from the coaching staff (not just the players) to attempt to peak at the right time.
Don’t know for sure if that’s what’s happening. And if it is, I also don’t know whether it’s the best plan. But I feel like that fits what’s been said, as well as what we’re watching.
I get what your saying, except that is what top teams do in this era. Tampa loses games and has off games, Boston has been a playoff style team all year for years. Vet players are relied upon because of a mature game. It’s about mature hockey
Some players don’t want to do that, the consequences are a far lower chance of a Cup, especially as a team even if a few lightweights sneak onto teams that win
have a tingling feeling Arizona want these pieces back for JC
Broberg
Holloway
2023 1st
2024 2nd
Would Holland bite?
no
If he does he should be fired.
I want JC badly. BUT I will not part with Holloway in any deal. FULL STOP.
Broberg – possibly
Bouchard – possibly
Bourgault – possibly
I would prefer to give up the 2024 1st, but GM’s aren’t stupid, they know 2023 is loaded and will want the 2023.
Interesting trade ideas today
Id like to see something like a deal for Chychrun, and from the Panthers Gudas and Hornqvist (he’s had his requisite injury so maybe he’s good for the rest). Somehow sending Barrie out and JP if possible. Bcs he wants it
PH is a monster in the O zone if he has anything left and it seems he does. His numbers are down, but it’s the attitude and getting after it I want to add. Gudas is a beast, Chychrun would be our best D
PH is adding a lesser E Kane, can switch with EK, one for each star C, and is extremely competitive and aggressive. Exactly what’s missing
If Bouch could only stop making basic defensive errors, with the awesome stats with Nurse (and Nurse back to normal)
Nurse Bouch
Chychrun Ceci
Bro Gudas
Murray
Niems
Much more physical and better D. Stupid Cap
This is laughable. Don’t insult Evander like that.
Hornqvist. 35 yrs old. 22 gms 1 G 2 A. The boots have left the building and the hands aren’t far behind.
Jaycob Megna
Cheap, big, signed for another season, can play in the NHL and presently plays for a non-contender.
like a niemo with experience. .. seems he’s having an ok year on a tire fire team .. 🙂
I’d wonder about him being zoomed by Karlsson (and Burns/Karlsson last year). He did get those gigs, but I’d say buyer beware on what he is without a strong partner.
Yeah, his numbers aren’t bad, huh. I didn’t mention them because I saw the same thing you saw, but I would add that at $762K, ie a fully “buriable” salary, and likely a 3rd in acq. cost, caveat emptor comes already covered in any deal.
I don’t see how we don’t overpay for Chychrun now.
we will have plenty of time to collect prospects and picks when Drai and Mcdavid retire
It seems like a pretty natural fit.
Oilers have a glaring need for top-4 LD with an affordable cap hit, and have draft capital AND a high-prospect LD to trade in return.
Holland was interviewed on Stauffer yesterday and mentioned that other teams aren’t likely to give up on the season until February, but Arizona is clearly an exception as they never intended on competing this season.
The Oilers have no cap room for a 4.6 million dollar player next year. There will be barely enough money to sign Mcleod and Bouchard. I keep hearing how they are going to trade Barrie to make room but he has been the Oilers best D man this year. Listening to Holland talk yesterday I get the impression he is feeling suffocated from the cap. If Chychrun is still available at the deadline I would consider offering Bouchard.
Surely they’ll be able divest themselves of Warren Foegele or Tyson Barrie if necessary.
It’s because of the $4.6M AAV that Chyckrun is an attractive target.
Selling the farm for Chychrun and then having to trade out Barrie to make room who is a similar type of player doesn’t improve the team that much. Its not worth a 1st, two top prospects if thats the ask.
Why would you trade Bouchard at the deadline while he’s still cheap rather than in the offseason?
Bouchard is absolutely killing the Oilers this season. Maybe
Craig Button was right about him. He isn’t going to help the Oilers win a cup this year, he has turned into a project.
Bouchard has been, and will be, better.
He was good in the playoffs last year (finished 7th in D scoring).
He could very well help the Oilers win this year and I’m confidant he can help the Oilers win over the next decade.
He’s not untraceable, of course, but damn the return better be big, and not a pure rental.
The reason you get Chychrun is that 4.6 mil contract !!
I would love the player on the roster and would/will certainly be excited if the deal was made.
I also have huge hesitation on the acquisition cost if is indeed two of the top prospects plus the 1st round – much of this is due to the injury risk – its real and its substantial.
I do have to disagree with the general premise that the prospects don’t really matter due to the win now reality. Sure, this year’s first rounder, no problem, send it away but lets not forget that in order for this team to compete year after year, it will NEED youngsters on ELCs making an impact in the lineup. Guys like Broberg and Holloway WILL make an impact on their ELCs and will likely be on big value 2nd contracts – during the McDavid/Drai window.
Ok putting that last three game stretch behind, Dallas is next up. If I’m putting a line up together here goes.
Holloway-McDavid-Hyman
Janmark-Nuge-Yamamoto
Foegele-Leon-Puljujarvi
Kostin-Shore-Ryan
Nurse-Barrie
Kulak-Ceci
Nemo-Bouch
Stew
Soup
There’s no help coming now until the New Year.
They need to give Nemo the go-ahead to smash some Star players.
Definitely switch Hyman and Jesse for me as:
1) Hyman/McDavid was very poor this season w/o Leon
2) Holloway/Jesse should be a pair at this point given recent play
Hyman & Connor have been terrible with Leon, they keep getting score on.
I kind of like Leon in that 3c role for now, give him a little breather. Give Holloway a shot with McDavid & Hyman, a reward for his recent play. Jesse is what he is.
First off Leon and Connor are not 22 years old the 82 game schedule is a marathon. Woody’s playing Batman&Robin and Nurse like it’s game 7. Woody needs to identify what players and line is having a strong game against the opposition. Some players play better against certain teams and it’s Woody’s job to play these players accordingly. Why can’t Woody see this I’m still perplexed that Campbell didn’t start against the Ducks then you don’t start Skinner who just signed a life altering contract the day of game day and you don’t start him. Has Woody not heard of same day dead cat bounce after signing a contract. I always bet on and it doesn’t matter the sport the next game after a team fires a Coach. I don’t know the winning percentage but it has to be in the higher 600’s
I agree about general deployment.
I don’t think Woody has heard about this dead-cat bounce after signing a contract due to the fact its not an actual thing.
I also agree that it seemed to be a no-brainer to play Campbell against the Ducks and Skinner in last night’s game but I’m not sure Woody needs to go around to Holland the players every day to see who might to signing an extension to see if he needs to alter his lineup decisions in the short term.
There are two lines that have been playing well, the second line with Nuge & the fourth line with Ryan. They really miss Kane & Clouder, as long as they split up Connor & Leon they will be headed in the right direction.
We went to the game last night- the Preds put on a really great show. Broadway after was not bad either.
To my eye the Oilers stole a point on a night when they didn’t have “enough jump”.
Ekhom, Josi play all night and are both very good.
Love to hear from peops that go to the games. Roman Josi is phenomenal live. Ditto Ryan Suter and Jay Boumeester. Guys are smooth as silk (Jay B when he played, obviously). My favorite part of the game is the pre game skate. Damn the City of Glendale. Or the Coyotes. Not sure anyone knows what really happened here.
I though Ekholm and Josi were both very good as well but I was just watching at home and I’ve been told that means that my opinion on the game is meaningless – I’m glad there is official confirmation on this now.
Hmmm. Well it is a different game up close and live. Do you go often ? I have not been to the 5500 seat facility in Tempe.
The Oilers have lots more to give, but I didn’t think they stole a point at all.
Expected goals being 3.5 to 3.1 Oilers seems to agree.
Hard Candy Christmas? More like Coal instead of toys with yet another Oiler season of futility and wasted opportunities with 2 of the most dynamic hockey duo’s in NHL history.
Has anyone else noticed the way how NHL teams these days have a great contending season followed by a season hovering around the playoff missing teams? Tampa, now Colorado are two examples.
It’s like NHL teams in the cap era are forced to suck at least 1 out of every 3 seasons.
Tampa has been to the SCF three straight years…
This is not accurate.
How many teams have made the playoffs over the past 5 seasons, and not missed any of them?
Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Washington, Colorado, St. Louis, and Nashville.
So half the playoff teams are perennial playoff teams.
Up to 4 of those teams could miss this season…..
Draisaitl has to be better 5 on 5.
His decision making is terrible, he always tries to force the play no matter where he is on the ice.
Yesterday a perfect example was him trying to skate through two Predators at his own blue line, of course it resulted in a turnover.
And if he is injured than its even more damning, because he should simplify his game especially in his own zone if he’s not at 100%.
Even Mcdavid shouldn’t be trying to make plays like that at his own blue line, and for the most part he doesn’t attempt nearly as many high risk plays as Draisaitl.
That play was unconscionable – I watched jaw on the floor wearing my #29. Love the player but just as stupid as Nurse’s dumb turnover.
Perhaps Leon is frustrated.
Leon Draisaitl can be compared to Jean Beliveau for size and effectiveness on ice. But he sure as heck isn’t playing for Toe Blake with a 5X dynasty line up.
Right now he’s a powerplay specialist. If he wants to win a cup he needs to change the way he plays in his own zone. It took a while for Yzerman to figure it out ther’s still time for Draisiatl to figure it out.
Wow are you ever taking Leon for granted.
5X dynasty line up. In a 6 team league.
Single moments can be important while also only being single moments.
Leon has set the bar so high for himself he’s become Give Em Enough Rope in your eyes. Don’t worry, In the new year I think London will be Calling.
Leon without Connor this season 5v5
CF% 42.78
SF% 45
GF% 40.63
xGF% 43.62
These numbers are worse than I thought. Leon should be much better than this. All these numbers are worse than the rest of the team without either Leon or Connor
They keep feeding him Yamamoto, who is NOT a top 6 player.
You would just completely ignore those WOWYs that show them with a 63% GF in 1600 minutes together over 4 seasons, wouldn’t you. Why, yes you would.
Do Draisaitl and Yamamoto without Nugent-Hopkins or McDavid.
Yamo + Drai w/o RNH or McD = 45.51 CF% 66.67 GF% 41.85 xGF%
Leon w/o Yamo, RNH or McD = 40.82 CF% 25 GF% 40.40 xGF%
I am not sure these numbers support your theory.
In the 4 year sample, Draisaitl and Yamamoto have played about 810 minutes without McDavid or Nuge. Their GF% in those minutes is 56.5%.
I understand that godot10 will remain unconvinced.
Nuge without Connor or Leon has better stats than Leon. Who are the top six forwards that Nuge is playing with ?
Drai is 6-3 goals with Yamamoto and 37% without him…
I underestimated the value of Smith’s ability to collect and distribute pucks to his defensemen/clear the zone. I find the current team gets trapped by aggressive forechecks regularly.
And similarly with Keith – I didn’t appreciate how dirty he was, nor his ability to anticipate and break cycles.
Not to mention Smith being really hard (motivating?) on his d-men.
These subtle changes have made a noticeable difference.
Small variables with big impacts…
Agreed (and we talked about this a bit the other day).
Smith is one of the best of all time at stopping the rim which in itself is massive – add that to his ability to move the puck to his releasing d-man….
how about this.
TO EDM: CHYCRUN ($4.6 Mil for 2 1/2 years)
BJUGSTAD ($900K UFA)
TO AZ: PULJUJARVI ($3.0 Mil UFA)
BROBERG ($863K for 1 1/2 years)
2023 – 2nd Round pick
2024 – 1st Round pick
AZ retains $1.0 of Chycrun Salary.
Yes.
Honestly, I think the play is to trade Broberg. He is a talented player, but he is made of glass.
I think Broberg can be a good NHL defenseman. But if you want to bring in Chycrun, you have to give up quality.
The problem with Broberg is,he can’t stay healthy and that is a huge problem that can’t be overlooked.
And Phoenix will know this
Neither Broberg or Chycrun can stay healthy, so maybe it’s a risk for a risk kind of trade?
That risk would be considerable higher for the Oilers given the other major pieces going out to get Chychrun.
I think that is a main problem with Chychrun especially considering the assets one has to give up to acquire.
I’ll warm up the fax machine
Keep the Broberg, give the Bouchard.
I know Nurse is trumpeted as an “innings eater”, but he’s playing too many minutes. Spread that love around a bit more, coach!
Does the same statement apply to:
MAKAR
DOUGHTY
DAHLIN
CHABOT
JOSI
HEISAKENEN
FOX
E. KARLSSON
Q. HUGHES
D. TOEWS
Those are your Top 10 in ice time. Nurse currently sits 20th.
Actual first pairing defenders.
Yeah, probably.
All but 2 of them (Dahlin and Fox) are within a few goals differential of Nurse at 5v5.
And in fact Nurse is ahead of all but Dahlin/Fox at even strength.
Seems there are a LOT of 2nd pairing Dmen around the league.
Edit: probably fair to add that half of the listed defensemen also didn’t play 1st pairing comp last season.
Where does he rank after PP minutes?
Using relative results isn’t perfect, but I don’t think there’s a better way to look at players across teams.
Here’s these players relative 5v5 results for the last 3 seasons (as well as 5v5 TOI/game):
MAKAR —— 18:41 MIN 3.9 SF% 7.6 GF% 7.3 xGF%
DOUGHTY — 19:26 MIN 3.2 SF% 2.7 GF% 2.7 xGF%
DAHLIN —— 18:25 MIN 4.2 SF% 4.6 GF% 2.6 xGF%
CHABOT —– 20:55 MIN 3.5 SF% 7.9 GF% 2.3 xGF%
JOSI ———– 19:27 MIN 2.4 SF% 2.7 GF% 2.6 xGF%
HEISAKENEN 19:11 MIN 2.7 SF% 1.8 GF% 3.0 xGF%
FOX ———— 17:25 MIN 5.8 SF% 7.5 GF% 8.5 xGF%
E. KARLSSON 18:27 MIN 3.4 SF% 5.0 GF% 0.0 xGF%
Q. HUGHES — 18:27 MIN 2.2 SF% 2.7 GF% -0.1 xGF%
D. TOEWS —- 19:11 MIN 4.5 SF% 5.8 GF% 6.2 xGF%
——-
NURSE ——– 19:54 MIN 1.3 SF% 3.7 GF% 2.7 xGF%
Add in that he’s near the top in 5v5 scoring, and I find it remarkable that anyone would question whether Nurse is a 1st pair defenseman.
Agreed. Nurse’s biggest problem is that he has never had adequate help.
Do any of Bear, Ceci, or Bouchard scream top pairing dman?
I know Ceci has played big minutes throughout his career, but those numbers are inflated by playing on teams lacking depth on D, IMO. He is a great 2 RHD.
3 RHD.
So if his numbers above are right in line with the other elites, why is half of the Fandom saying he should play less? or suggesting he is not playing well. Looks like he’s playing fine.
Great question. He has made some high profile mistakes lately and he is -1 at 5v5 on the year (though +10 at even strength). I won’t hazard more of an answer than that though, since IMO the criticism of his play and the concern over his ice time are way overblown.
How about cap efficiency?
Virtually all those other D excel on the PP while the Oilers are expending considerable additional cap space to fill that role.
Nurse is 20th in toi/g amoung NHL defensemen. He is averaging just over 24 minutes per night. That’s 3 less than Makar. Two and a half less than old man Doughty.
It’s only a minute and a half more than Draisaitl averaged last season.
On a team bereft of top 4 d, how do you play Nurse less than 20th in the league?
Not all TOI is created equal though. Nurse is 7th in 5v5 TOI/GP at 19:06.
And in the past 5 games he has averaged 20:34 at 5v5, with sub-par results against inferior opponents. Calls to back off his minutes are not without merit.
so what’s a good number for the $9 Million dollar man? 18 minutes?
I’m not sure, but 20:34 isn’t working.
18:30 would put him inside the top 20, just ahead of Q Hughes, Makar and Slavin. Somewhere between that and 19:00 is probably the right range.
Also, who you play with matters. I would guess Ceci is one of the weaker top-pairing partners.
Finally, what is the deployment? Is there a strong second pairing to eat tough minutes?
“old man Doughty” just turned 33 two weeks ago. YMMV, obviously.
There is an argument that elite players age more slowly since they had superior skills to begin with.
Yes, I was saying that 32 years and a couple of weeks is not that old.
Also trying to remind Ryan that finding the cliff at 29 like Subban is not the typical outcome.
Thing is…it often is but, of course, some players defy the averages.
Lots of talk here recently about Jason Demers and how he has fallen off the cliff….and he just turned 34.
If you look at his profile, it appears the cliff came for him around the 29-30 mark and that indeed seems to be about average.
If you have the time and inclination there has been a lot of analytical work done on the subject:
https://rpubs.com/cjtdevil/nhl_aging
Pp minutes are far far easier for a dman. Subtract out pp min and you start getting to the issue
Even simpler
Offensive zone starts over dzone starts all states significantly easier minutes on defenseman.
Nurse averaged 20:40 at 5 on 5 in a season where he was seventh in Norris voting.
He’s playing no more this year than previous years where he’s has success.
Its a slump.
Could be injury related for all we know but history shows these minutes are not an issue for him.
I’m not going to panic because I panicked at this point last year and they pulled it together.
But not before making serious changes.
Sell the farm for the right d-man. That’s the play.
Maybe you need to start panicking… again. So maybe they pull it together….again.
Still won’t matter if McDraivid don’t back check.
This is the same exact Oilers team from a year ago that got Tippet fired. They are built and run for McDavid and Draisaitl to win the scoring title not wins.
“In the regular season they are built and run for McDavid and Draisaitl to win the scoring title”
Fixed that for you.
Getting tiresome to hear how these guys and the team are losers when they’ve won more rounds than all the All-Stars on Florida, Calgary, Toronto and are tied with the SuperStars in Carolina the last six years…you know all those awesome teams with super smart coaches coaching the right way and GMs using the most advanced of advanced analytics…
That is an awesome way of looking at things, thank you for that, I fell better now (but still frustrated).
This team was a great Sarros save in OT away from stealing a second point. There were that close but it didn’t happen and they were full value for NOT getting two points and were lucky to get one. They weren’t dominated or anything but, to my eye, they were the 2nd best team throughout.
I was surprised McDaivd/Drai were together to start and, honestly, I think it was a mistake and splitting them up is long overdue.
Tyson Barrie was the team’s best d-man last night (he played well and it was against the Forsberg line) and he’s been the teams best d-man for the season. That’s great and not great, more not great.
This is just a slump but its demoralizing and they are throwing away important points.
Blah.
if one takes Nurse out of the lineup, the Oilers are far worse than if Barrie were taken out of the lineup.
Cale Makar declined a penalty last night.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/good-guy-cale-avalanches-makar-convinces-ref-to-rescind-islanders-penalty/
Class act
Does he do that in games 83 to ….. likely not
Marek and Friedman suggesting Makar will get the benefit of the doubt for the rest of the season.
Players of the world unite, unite and take over. Pond hockey ethics -pride- could render officiating and by virtue of that, horrible officiating, obsolete.
Bingo!
He got the benefit of the doubt already last year in the playoffs.
He didn’t admit that he was offside last year.
He may not of been tripped but he was hooked, bonehead play on Makars part.
How many of you felt your lower backsides tighten up a bit when the announcers said “the Pred’s are 0 for 20 on the power play and looking to break out”?
or “The Predators have lost 6 in a row coming in.” ….
Edmonton is a great elixir for terrible teams 🙂
I did, yes. Also on Saturday when I found out the Ducks would be playing their 3rd string goalie and Rob Brown set the over/under at 4.5 for the number of goals the Oilers would score…
Ref could have pointed right at centre ice then…
Crosby, at age 35, leads the NHL in ESP with 32. Well done SID 🙂
He’s kind of a good player so…
Crosby career wise is trending >> McDavid, by most measures.
Crosby eliminated all of the weak parts of his game by mid-career.
Knowing what one knows now, the choice between an 18-year old Crosby and an 18-year old McDavid is an easy one right now.
If you said in September, “you will have the #1, #2 & #13 scorers in the NHL. And you will be 3 games over Bettman .500” – would you take it?
The funny thing is IF they lock down the St.Louis game and did beat Anaheim, they would be in a good spot. But they just can’t seem to gain any traction. Going into Dallas is no picnic.
When do we start to worry?
I would say wow pretty decent year for Kane so far.
1st, 2nd, and 13th, eh? Throw in 32nd and we got a deal.
Does anyone know (1) which fancy stat(s) at time 1 are most predictive of their time 2 values, indicating repeatability or reliability; and (2) which fancy stat(s) do the best job predicting winning. There are so many publicly available stats out there, which is great, but without a sense of which ones actually do the best job predicting success, it’s hard to know which ones are the most diagnostic.
IIRC, 5v5 corsi is the most predictive. I could be wrong. Also, things might be different now with the increase in metrics available.
The panel last night pushing every LD at us hard Ekholm ; Chyc Edmundson etc
Is the hole in 2nd pairing LD that glaring?
Seriously? The D on most nights is not good.
it’s not the 2nd painting, it is Ceci is not a top guy, Kulak is not a 2nd pairing guy. Nurse plays way too many minutes and that is making him a way less efficient Ad man and he looks nowhere near a top guy of late.
THEY NEED HELP .
^^^^
This. So much this.
For sure would like Nurse’s ice time reduced but the narrative linking his poor play recently to the TOI doesn’t line up with the fact that he’s not playing more minutes than in recent year’s past.
He’s slumping. It happens. Alot.
Perhaps he’s injured and/or also no fully recovered from the hip issue.
Ekholm’s best days are behind him and he has 3 years left on his contract.
Edmundson has this year +1, so that’s not a big deal, again don’t know if he any good.
For me the play is still Chycrun. Young, this year +2 at a good cap hit. People don’t like to hear it, but he may be an equal or better than Nurse.
Maybe KH brings in Chycrun and Gudas? seems to solve a lot of problems & give the team depth in case of injury.
Chychrun with a sick stretch pass assist last night . 13 points in 14 games +9
he is the play. Fits everything we need. Yes I know he will cost a lot, good players do.
edmundson is no longer good. this is not the player you remember.
Do you have an explanation, or theory, why Holland (and every other GM in the league) isn’t willing to pay the asking price?
(my theory isn’t he’s not that good, but I acknowledge I simply don’t know for sure)
I think injury history is the obvious explanation.
That’s definitely a big part, but I don’t think it’s the whole story.
Perhaps this year is different, but his usage before that has been as soft as Barrie’s, and he’s never been a regular on the PK.
I’d guess that GMs looking at paying a 1st pair/#1D price for Chychrun are leery about whether he can handle those minutes consistently.
Karlsson would be the best play, but San Jose has to retain half.
I believe the biggest issue is we don’t have legitimate 1 st D pair….
I believe the biggest issue on the blue is that Ceci is ideally a 2RD
For me there is a lack of ready now players or higher end established guys for the top 4, especially 1 RD
This is compounded by a poor mix of players. Nobody is Hedman and can play with anyone. Nurse has done admirably carrying partners to decent success, but now it’s not working and there is no way out for the coaches that they can suss out
Some guys are good a certain things, and with a complimentary partner could make better pairs
Kulak and Bouch defend zone entries well by stats. Bouch struggles in zone. Kulak isn’t a solid top 4 with the puck. Ceci is pretty good in zone defending, less so on entries. Nurse now struggles everywhere
Bro is green, Niems is green and not fast
Nurse with a better version of Ceci or with a Bouch that didn’t brain fart always would be strong
Ceci with an entry defending puck two way puck mover would be good
Kulak with a Gudas type would be good
etc
Barrie does well at times sheltered with a complimentary partner. Kulak helps him a lot but to be a better pair Barrie needs a strong defensive physical D partner
Barrie struggles in zone and on entries. He makes a lot of mistakes defensively and isn’t hard to play against. He’s a pretty good puck mover so he can handle softer comp
Not named Edmundson who has one solid year on the stats sheets and a lot of meh
Barrie has not been sheltered as of late and continues to be the team’s top D-man.
He saw Forsberg for over 8 minutes last night.
if you split up Mcdavid and Drai it becomes impossible to play them 25 min a night so please do it
Lack of commitment to team defence has been and remains the problem. Unless that changes then nothing changes.
Starting at the top.
I loved that play. Very effective in separating man from puck. Glad he didn’t get called.
Does that mean you’re pointing at the other guy?
Looking again at the replay McDavvid appears to be busting ass as soon as he’s able (he had to go around multiple bodies coming off the bench), so I don’t think any blame lies there.
Someone also mentioned Yamamoto too, but since he was the forechecker and his man was the one who passed the puck from behind the Nashville net, well that’s absurd.
I feel like ‘bad line change’ may be the most accurate descriptor.
In case anyone wants to re-live the moment, lol
https://www.nhl.com/video/carrier-wins-it-in-ot/t-335902788/c-14320539
Postgame, Nuge effectively admitted that he made a poor change.
OK thanks, I didn’t watch Nuge talk last night.
The Hamburglar is hanging them up.
Such a good stat line given he was deemed a non-NHL goalie.
31-20-7, 2.57 GAA, .916 SV%
Combination of health and strong goalies above him. Shame.
The Oilers have four players on pace for almost 80 points. The bottom six are not getting caved for the first time in forever. Yet, the Oilers are in real danger of missing the playoffs. Wild times.
Last year, when Woody took over, he had the team playing a responsible (for the most part) two-way game. I do not know what happened this year, but wow. The entire team is so disinterested in playing defence and winning battles.
Jack Campbell is obviously not helping anything.
The PK is horrid. That is the main difference. And it is cratoring the rest of the Oilers game.
that’s a leaky blue at 5×5 as well.
For sure. The PK is abysmal.
Fun fact: the six worst PKs in terms of GA are all from the pacific division.
The Dementor, Thoroughly Mediocre Coach, and Mini Thoroughly Mediocre Coach…we are very familiar with their PK’s from experience.
The Oilers are -9 5v5 and +7 on special teams (40-3 on the pp and 4-34 on the pk).
To follow up on Connor/Leon together vs. apart.
It’s been 13 games with them together now. Overall the team has gone 7-4-2 (16 PTS, .615 PTS%) in that span.
52GF-41GA (56%GF) all situations (that’s 3.96GF/60, 3.12 GA/60). 52% shots, 53% scoring chances, 52% HD scoring chances as well.
At 5v5 the team is 28-26 goals (52%) as well as 52-53% in shots, scoring chances and HD chances.
Overall the team has been pretty successful.
In terms of McDavid/Draisaitl on/off in the 13 games (5v5):
Both on 12-11 goals (52%)
One on 0-3 goals (1 McDavid, 2 Drai)
Both off 16-12 goals (57%) (underlying numbers are around 50%)
The ‘Both off’ number is what this team needs in the big picture, it’s the big guys that are struggling to outscore at the moment.
Anyway, IF Draisaitl is healthy, I do think it’s time to split them up. Overall though, I think this stretch has probably been good for the Oilers as a whole. The rest of the forwards, including some deep depth, have been meaningful contributors and have sawed off over the last 3+ weeks of hockey.
The schedule was a lot softer for this last stretch.
Yes, for sure.
The average team they faced over the 13 games was about +1 win on the season, which in a Bettman league is a shade below average.
This last stretch is closer to the competition they’ll face for the rest of the season than their first 20 games was though.
Fully agree, but is Draisaitl actually injured?
I know folks say that every December. I don’t usually join the chorus, but I think he really is this time.
Gregor mentioned it the other day as well apparently.
Anyway, if healthy, yes I do think it’s time to use those two on different lines.
Truthfully I can’t say whether he’s injured or not, but I’ve never seen him fall down as much and as easily as he did last night. He’s usually very good holding defenders on his back, but last night he went down like a house of cards every time someone breathed in his general direction. That says ankle injury to me.
Yeah, I saw that too.
It also makes sense with his overall numbers. I.e., he has proven he can still score on one leg, but it is more difficult to back-check/battle in the defensive zone when you do not trust your ankle.
I’m not sure this is actually a question. Drai said himself earlier in the year that the ankle wasn’t/isn’t 100%. There are times where you press the wrong way, etc. and it aggravates it, etc.
With that said, he’s had shifts and games with very powerful skating.
I think he can play center and he should play centre based off what I’ve seen and heard/read.
When’d you start doing posts this early, LT? Wow!
I agree we should be running McDrai on two lines, but I think Nuge is has been too hot to be limited to 3C. The team did well to come back several times last night, but you’re absolutely right – when the PP1/line 1 is off, you’re just hoping we don’t drop a goal.
Nuge has been hot but, truth be told, in the last 10 games, 9 of his 13 points have been on the PP.
Don’t get me wrong, Nuge has been awesome even at 5 on 5 in that time – in particular I am loving his board play – its like his man strength has shown up and he’s winning battles and initiating the contact, etc. With the load in in the last 10, it’s tough to go on 5 on 5 point heaters with the rest of the still depleted forward group.
I’m OK with him at 3C or 1/2LW.
You’re up early these days, LT.
All the best to you and yours this holiday season.
Our hearts are with you and our thoughts are of you.
my habit in ingrained from years of training. I don’t check the site until 8:30 …guess I can start looking sooner, as I always look forward to what LT has to say; followed up by all the great commentary.