The Edmonton Oilers, after playing down to their competition for a week, found the winning formula against the substantial Dallas Stars. It was one of the most satisfying games of the season, and featured several impressive stories. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is now 18-23-41 in 34 games, I’ve watched pretty much every one of his games and this is the most confident I’ve seen him offensively. Evan Bouchard finished the night 3-0 goals at five-on-five, the kind of nuclear regression his underlying numbers have been screaming for several weeks. It was a fun game in a place that usually brings torture for Oilers fans.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers keep Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together?
- Lowetide: What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer make the NHL leap next season?
- New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers’ Philip Broberg’s progress as an NHL defenceman
- DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
- Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- DNB: Connor McDavid questions NHL rules, Darnell Nurse’s gaffes prove costly in Oilers loss
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- DNB: If the Oilers can trade Jesse Puljujarvi, where is he likely to end up?
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is redefining his role
- DNB: The Oilers don’t need someone like Zack Kassian. They need more efforts like this
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 5-4-2, 12 points in 11 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 18-14-2, 38 points in 34 games
It was a big win for a team that would have fallen out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with a loss. The Oilers are now on a trajectory that would land the team 92 points and a playoff spot (probably). It also means the chances of ending the calendar year ahead of the Calgary Flames increased, and for many Oilers fans that’s a gigantic deal.
SUMMARY
- Zach Hyman was at his animated best in this game, collecting one goal (an assist was taken away), five shots, three HDSC, some real passion on a marginal penalty call against him, and some fantastic aggressive energy all game long. I loved his Dad’s story about Zach meeting Gordie Howe when Hyman was a little boy. Fun stuff!
- Connor McDavid was quiet offensively for the first two periods, but scored a big goal late. He had a goal, one shot, several cherry passes, 2GV and 2TK, drew a penalty. McDavid is 29-36-65 in 34 games. This is going to be an historic season. That’s 70-87-157 over 82 games, that’s a Phil Esposito season in a league that hasn’t seen one for over 25 years.
- Jesse Puljujarvi picked up an assist (now 2-6-8 in 34 games) and turned over pucks as always. A couple of nice passes to 97 sent him away and JP worked hard on the forecheck and backcheck. JP is 1-1-2 in his last two games.
- Mattias Janmark scored 2-1-3 and doubled his offensive output for the season. Four shots, won three of four faceoffs, had a HDSC, took and drew a penalty, and continues to be an effective linemate for the Nuge.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is playing at his dynamic best, posting 1-2-3 goals while being effective without the puck. Played almost three clean minutes on the PK.
- Klim Kostin had a big impact on the first Edmonton goal, and went 0-2-2 with six hits on the night. He was physical and dangerous with the puck. Ken Holland looks pretty good on this trade so far.
- Warren Foegele scored the biggest goal of the game on a nice pass by Draisaitl. Three shots, one HDSC, took and drew a penalty. I liked this line plenty.
- Leon Draisaitl had an assist, three shots, two takeaways and matched the Stars physically. Dallas is a physical team and tries to intimidate, but Leon doesn’t back down one inch.
- Kailer Yamamoto had one shot, blocked a shot and made some good passes. He also missed on a few promising chances and it may have cost him. Draisaitl could have passed to Yamamoto instead of Foegele and Edmonton might have scored on either chance. The young wingers have to be productive with the big centers. Yamamoto is 2-2-4 in his most recent eight games.
- Dylan Holloway still can’t get a break, his spot in the batting order remains off off Broadway. Played 7:21, had a shot, a HDSC, and a good open-ice hit that was effective. Turned over one puck, tenacious on the forecheck, I’d love to see him get a chance with one of the big centers. There are three as of now, by the way.
- James Hamblin played 9:43, had one shot and a takeaway, he can survive in the NHL. Now he needs to post some crooked numbers. He played 1:34 clean on the PK, Devin Shore is averaging 26 seconds a game in the discipline. Hamblin is working his way into a job here. Maybe not full time but he’ll be on the recall list from now on.
- Derek Ryan had two shots, one HDSC, a takeaway, blocked a shot and won a faceoff. He is a fine utility player.
- Darnell Nurse had three shots, a giveaway and four blocked shots. Made a weak clearing attempt on the PK that was an unforced error. He got caught cheating for offense and then was late getting back (and therefor out of position) on the Wyatt Johnson entry that led to his goal. The video made Kostin look guilty but Johnson was gone baby gone. That was Nurse’s man. Janmark didn’t help anyone on the play due to a peculiar entry shot. Played 7:40 against Jason Robertson five-on-five, Edmonton winning the goal share 1-0 and shot share 11-6. That’s solid work.
- Cody Ceci had an assist, two shots and five hits. He could have used some forward help on the Hintz goal, got isolated by a pass and left Tyson Barrie to defend a two-on-one.
- Brett Kulak took a penalty, blocked a shot, and he was 0-1 goals on the PK (1:00). He played 7:06 with McDavid five-on-five, Nurse played 5:19, but Nurse had the better results. Kulak’s pairing got caved by the Robertson and Benn lines but didn’t allow a goal five-on-five.
- Tyson Barrie was ineffective on the first goal against, but that was a tough chance and he didn’t get any help. He had an assist, three shots and a giveaway. Barrie’s suddenly calm feet are a big plus for the Oilers. His five-on-five goal differential (25-20) is one of the neglected stats this season.
- Markus Niemelainen played his most effective game. He had a shot, a giveaway, four hits and solid positioning all night. He played a lot (16:28) and was 3-0 goals at five-on-five. Niemelainen was on the PK for 34 seconds. Encouraging.
- Evan Bouchard had a strong night. He was also 3-0 goals, making fine passes and good decisions. He had one assists, three shots, three giveaways (but recovered well for the most part) and there was less chaos than normal when he was on the ice.
Stuart Skinner stopped eight of nine HDSC and now has 12 (of 19) quality starts. That’s 63 percent and he has 10 wins on the season. A Godsend.
WILD ON SCORING
In 1970-71, the Boston Bruins boasted seven of the top 10 scorers at the end of the year. It was beyond dominance, and one of the truly memorable seasons in league history. A team could never dominate like that again (the league has more than doubled) but these Oilers are impressive all the same. Edmonton players occupy the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 10 spot in league scoring at this time.
BAKERSFIELD
The Condors played again last night, losing to the Colorado Eagles. Young Xavier Bourgault picked up two assists, and is now 8-7-15 in 26 games. That works out to (over a 72-game schedule) 22-21-43 and is an NHLE of 23 points.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
Another big show, 10-2 today, TSN1260. We’ll talk Oilers and the importance of last night’s win, plus preview Jaguars-Jets and world juniors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Western Conference standings by wins +/-
VGK +12
WPG +10
DAL +10
SEA +8
COL +7
MIN +7
LAK +7
EDM +4
——-
CGY +3
NSH +1
STL 0
VAN -1
ARI -6
SJS -7
ANA -13
CHI -13
Important 2 points tonight heading into the break.
Happy Festivus, everyone!!!
To you as well my friend!
Let’s start an early poll on Leon’s next contact….how much, and which team. My bet is Dallas, they have $23M expiring when Leon is a free agent…Benn, Lindell, Faska, Suter all expiring …if I’m Dallas I’m willing to pay $15M for Leon….gonna be tough to keep him in Edmontundra
It would be quite shocking if its not with the Oilers.
Oilers: $13MM X 8
Effin Canucks
Effin Flames
Ethan Bear unfortunately for him is back to popcorn munching
His numbers in Vancouver are not that good (as of about a week ago when I was looking).
Hasn’t Friedman been saying, “extension being worked on”?
He said they would like to (or will) extend him.
That doesn’t change the numbers (and the fact he’s now been healthy scratched on a team that is known to be, well, “not deep on the back-end) – he is what he is, a 5-7 guy.
I think I need to want LAK to win but I’m not happy about it.
All I want for Christmas is no loser points when teams competing with the Oilers for the playoffs play each other.
Krak are finally taking a two goal lead into the 3rd. That game was making me nervous.
You’ve apparently been naughty this year!
The Boston Bruins are now 18-0-2 at home.
Glad they beat a WC team – Bruins so lucky they don’t play the Oil there until March 9th – talk about easiness of schedule, eh?
I hope they win the president’s trophy
Sorry LT
I like to see RNH make it to the NHL all-star game in 2023 in Florida
Yup – going to be tough though with two no-brainer forwards on the team ahed of him.
If he’s in the top ten in scoring he might squeak in.
Capitals PR
With six shots tonight, Alex Ovechkin has passed Ray Bourque (6,209) for the most shots in NHL history.
Re: Petry, Chyckrun
At age 21 Jacob Chyckrun played out his ELC and signed a 6-year “Klefbom”-type contract after playing his way into the Coyotes top-4.
That next season, the 2019 ‘Yotes were a good club – they had Kuemper, Kessel, Garland, Hjalmarsson, and Goligoski. They made some noise trading for Taylor Hall.
That season JC passed OEL as the Yotes top Left D. He scored 12 goals in an abbreviated season. Instant value on his second contract.
In the 2021 CoVid season the Rick Tocchet Yotes we’re respectable, and Chyckrun was the team’s top defender by every measure: points, TOI, etc. Real top-pair stuff.
Summer 2021 Yotes go full-scale re-build – Goligoski, Hjalmasson, Demers and OEL are gone. Chyckrun is asked to do everything defensively. Understandably his numbers crater and he gets injured.
This year he’s back to top-pair level, where he’s been, when healthy, since age 21.
Like Jeff Petry, being the best defenseman on a lousy team is bad for your numbers. He has no choice but to play against top comp with below-average teammates.
If he was a free-agent he’d get $6.5 – $8.5 as he’s in the Provorov-Werenski category. So this year +2 more he’s $2-4M surplus value.
A veritable value contract for a player entering his prime, playing a position that is the Oilers’ greatest area of need.
Very comparable to Petry aside from the fact Petry signed bridge contracts all the way to UFA, where JC had just started to play out the high-value side of his post-ELC deal.
Bill Armstrong is asking a big price for a reason.
Agree. I think the chance for Chycrun to be a Home Run Value Contract is huge. Obviously a steep price. But tired of “hoping” prospects become impact players. We know what Chycrun is. GO GET THE MAN !
Ha! When I first started reading your post, I had thought it was cut and pasted from an article in a sports blog (as it reads more like an article than a blog comment.)
etc. (don’t want to quote it all)
I don’t think this is an entirely fair representation.
In his final ELC year (18-19) he was top 4 by TOI (#3 at 20:15/game) but by PuckIQ he was #7 among Coyotes defensemen in %TOI vs elites. This includes guys who played 35 and 50 games ahead of him in %TOI to Chychrun’s 53 GP, but he wasn’t close to top 4 by %TOI vs. elites.
The next year (19-20) he did not pass OEL based on TOI or %TOI vs elites. He did up his ice time to 22:26, but OEL played 23:00. And OEL was #2 in %TOI vs elites (0.2 behind Demers). Chychrun was 5th (with Hjalmarsson who played only 26 games ahead of him).
Agree he was legit top pair in the 56 game Covid season. 1st in TOI/game and #2 in %TOI vs. elites.
Last season, he remained #1 by TOI/game, but was back down to 5th in %TOI vs elites.
There’s no question Chychrun is a ‘good’ player. Exactly how good is still up in the air though. He plays significant minutes while also generally being sheltered against top competition.
If Chychrun’s been a top pair D since he was 21, then we might also have to accept Tyson Barrie as a ‘top pair’ D for most of his career (iirc that was not the conclusion).
Presumably Chychrun is a better Dman than Barrie, but Barrie is actually extremely similar comp in terms of usage (big minutes, but lower %TOI vs elites) up until his last 2 seasons.
Chyckrun 6’2 220, 1st round pick, played in the NHL in his draft +1.
Tyson Barrie 5’11 195, 3rd round picked, made it as a full time NHL’er in his draft +5.
Fair point about Chyckrun’s usage. I do however remember when it was rumored that the Oilers were looking at OEL that it had come up that a 22 year old Chyckrun had eclipsed him.
Undoubtedly he was sheltered as a younger player, but hard to believe he still needs sheltering. JC has flown enough sorties against top NHL’ers that he should know his reads. Nobody is comparing him to Chris Pronger.
If I have a counterpoint to you jp, it’s that I don’t see evidence of Chyckrun getting caved against top comp either. I don’t think the comparison to an offense-only defenseman is fair.
No, and as I said, I assume Chychrun is better than Barrie.
He really has been used very similarly to Barrie though (when he was in Colorado, Toronto, and his first year in Edmonton).
And after getting true top pairing usage for 1 year, Chychrun was back to being sheltered against top comp again last season. It’s a major red flag for me.
Add in the cost being crazy, the injury history, and that no one else around the league has been willing to pay the asking price…
I personally would favour someone with a cheaper asking price, and with a lower AAV. Recall that in addition to the assets, the Oilers would need to move out either 1) Barrie, or 2) two ~$3M forwards to fit in Chychrun’s cap hit this season (that assumed Kane is back well before playoff time).
Is the team really farther ahead by trading 1st, Broberg, plus AND Puljujarvi and Foegele?
Maybe. But are you sure? I’m not.
Bingo. You asked the other day why I was offering Megna up as a possible trade target and I unfortunately didn’t see it till much later, sorry. But my reasoning was what you just wrote. The cap required to be moved, to make a big name work, just seems impossible considering the holes it would leave on the roster. My thinking is that Holland is cruising the aisles of Wal-Mart, not Abercrombie & Fitch.
Yeah, the Oilers certainly can’t be making any luxury adds, but I don’t know if they’re quite stuck in Wal-Mart.
Most/all of the selling teams will be expecting to retain salary on expiring deals. With term left that doesn’t apply to Chychrun since he’s almost certainly going to cost $4.6M.
But if a guy like Orlov becomes available by the deadline, his cap hit is (probably) only going to be $2.55M. There will be more players available by the deadline than there are now, and the Oilers will be able to afford many of them.
Wal-Mart does have a lot of good deals, and some solid products too, though.
I would question this.
First thing, as I pointed out below is that Chychrun only played 47 games last year. On any team, if they lose their top defensemen, after he’s out with injury, the other guys are going to get Shellacked with more minutes against elites, no?
There’s also the chance with d that can produce offense, that the coach wants to get them out against weaker comp to create offense.
Still Mayo was 36% against elites compared to 31% for Chychrun and 34.7% for the ghost. PuckIQ is probably to blunt of an instrument to call that significant especially in light of him missing games.
Second, he led their team in 5v5 toi last year. It would take a look of coaching shenanigans to get a d to lead the team in toi while being sheltered.
There’s certainly no evidence of sheltering with OTF starts.
I think people run into trouble when they over interpret data from PuckIQ.
Chychrun was at 30% toi vs elites last year. That was the exact same as Hampus Lindholm in his last season in Anaheim.
It’s literally the exact same argument used to conclude Tyson Barrie was a ‘3rd pair’, even when he was playing 21-23 minutes a night. And there is some truth to it.
I guess possibly, maybe, there’s some weirdness in the usage when Chychrun was injured so that other guys jumped over him in %TOI vs elites? Seems unlikely, but he sure as hell wasn’t the coach’s go-to in all situations, even if he played tons. That’s fair, no?
FWIW I was just looking at Gost and Chychrun’s partners last season since I think Gost or some other rental is probably a better bet than Chychrun when you take all the factors into it. Turns out Gost was paired mostly with Mayo, and Chychrun’s most common partners were Lyubushkin and Stralman. So Gost definitely got the short end of the stick in terms of %TOI vs elites overall, as well as partner (26 year-old journeyman Mayo seems to be back in the minors this year).
Whatever way you want to parse Chychrun’s usage (on bad teams), it’s got to be a damn red flag, doesn’t it?
To the other post, you didn’t say anything about why we should expect Holland to be the smartest GM in the room on this one.
I don’t disagree at all that Chychrun is a good defenseman, but it’s so difficult to know how good. Yet we’re sitting here with really shitty data and telling Holland he’s making a mistake not doing something no one else in the league is willing to do?
There the question Chychrun not playing the toughest minutes. There’s the injury history. There’s the ask (somewhere between 2 and 3 1st round picks or 1st round quality prospects). And there’s the salary.
As I said to John, 1st + Broberg + plus. AND Puljujarvi + Foegele.
Far, far too many question marks for all that going out IMO.
Interesting point, jp. I can’t comment on his usage because nobody in their right mind should spend any time following Arizona Coyote hockey.
I would do a deal at Kulak, Puljujarvi, 2 x 1sts. An upgrade on Kulak without giving up any existing prospects. Like you say if you trade too much salary away you risk actually making the team worse.
Oilers are going to spend a 1st anyway, may as well get a top-4 Dman with years on his contract as opposed to a rental. We can agree he’s bona fide top-4, right?
Yes, no question he’s top 4 (and he may well be more).
Kulak is possible for salary too, but then you likely want to add a Kulak at the deadline. For sure he could be included among the ‘salary out’ options though.
So that’s why 50% of Oiler fans feel this guy should be the target:
At worst he’s a top-4 on a good to great contract, at- or entering his prime.
But he could end up being the team’s best or 2nd best D. And we could use that, no?
For sure we could use that, but if it turns out he’s more 2nd pair than #1 or #2 then the contract is fine/good rather than great value. Even that’s out the window if he gets injured again.
Chychrun is a high risk/high reward bet, and in this case I’m being risk averse.
Barrie was a 5 last year and a 4 this year at 5v5 toi/60. He has the 5th lowest OTF starts per 60 both years. Those are bottom pairing minutes. You do know that coaches use high OTF starts for the bottom pairings?
Chychrun was 1st in 5v5 toi/60 the past two seasons, both years with the lowest OTF starts on the team.
One of these things is not like the other.
The idea that Chychrun is sheltered is a falsehood.
How do you shelter a player by giving him the most 5v5 minutes with the least on the fly starts per sixty? Send envelopes with cash to the opposing coach?
I was talking about Barrie’s previous usage. I was more clear with John (“He really has been used very similarly to Barrie though (when he was in Colorado, Toronto, and his first year in Edmonton).“), but I did say “when he was playing 21-23 min” to you.
Barrie played ~23 min a night for 3 seasons (and 21+ for 7) but ranked something like 4-6 in %TOI vs elites (I didn’t check the PuckIQ numbers recently but that’s the ball park).
Barrie is definitely not playing the Chychrun minutes any more. And I haven’t checked Barrie’s OTF starts during those years.
We would be calling Chychrun sheltered if he was a player we didn’t think highly of, we really would be. At minimum Chychrun is not ‘taking on the toughs’ as LT likes to say, even though he’s on a bottom dweller.
Canucks play tonight and then have to travel to Edmonton tomorrow for the game (and lose the hour). The Oilers did have to travel home today but are at home and sleeping at home tonight – this is one of the few times so far this year (I think) the Oilers have had this advantage.
Oilers should be able to dictate tomorrow night’s game.
Here is hoping they play the committed type game we saw last night and it becomes the norm, not the exception.
I Would start Campbell if we are to have a 625 plus winning percentage going in to the playoffs we need Campbell up and running.
Play Skinner, what’s the point of getting Campbell up and running before a break.
I wouldn’t say that one game before the break is “up and running”
I’m not even sure there is much of a break – its three days, they play Friday then Tuesday.
A bit off topic, but I liked this headline: By The Numbers: Panthers, Flames both outside playoff picture five months after blockbuster trade
Florida Panthers Calgary Flames Tkachuk Huberdeau trade comparison | TSN
Goalie Bob. Man that contract. He has 3 years left at $10 m per.
.895 SV% over 20 games this season.
It’s not uncommon for players to take a while to settle into playing on a new team.
Calgary has an easy schedule the rest of the way.
They will surge.
Team chemistry is a thing.
The Flames ripped out their heart of their team and did a full transplant. It’s not a guarantee the Flames will get better. In fact, they could get worse.
From what I’ve seen of that team, they lack high end offence. Sure Huberdeau is a good player but he’s not as dynamic as Gaudreau.
The Flames have 11 players that have scored 5 goals or more. (best in the league)
The Oilers have 5.
While “high end offense” wins individual trophies, depth is often more effective.
Wow. Minimum 5 goals? That’s a low bar. It sure doesn’t take much to please you!
Huberdeau and Coleman among those Flames on pace for 12 goals this season.
They’re tied with Nurse at 5 goals too btw.
Subtract 2/3 of a line that was +60 last season and some didn’t expect them to miss a beat.
Still a good team, but it’s near impossible to replace that chemistry (which doesn’t just automatically happen when you put good players on the same line).
They will surge, the bandwagon will have people falling off on their Stetsons, and they will crush their fandom
As luck would have it, Dom addressed this today.
https://theathletic.com/4026758/2022/12/22/16-stats-panthers-devils-rasmus-sandin/?source=user_shared_article
1) I’m confused as I don’t think I read this “new players taking time to settle in” excuse/reason brought up with Jack Campbell.
2) I love it when the Oilers demise (including rise of rivals) is postulated due to strength of schedule – its always worked out like that
3) 124 goals vs. 104 goals (high end scoring vs. depth scoring).
Similar to surge Vegas was supposed to get last year when they got healthy? And then missed the playoffs?
Thing is…they never got healthy.
Now they are and are running away with the Pacific Division.
Fancy that.
so you didn’t notice that Vegas remaining schedule is almost inverse of Calgary and Edmonton??
im shocked
Hyman could easily have 23-25 Goals he sure gets at least 2-3 looks in the paint. Hyman needs to start willing these pucks in the net. We are missing Kane when he sees a open net his eyes light up and he rifles it in like Clarke Gillis are Charlie Simmer.
He has 15G – but you think he should have more? Hyman is having an excellent season and he absolutely is “willing” pucks into the net. They can’t all go in.
Did you know that Clark Gillies career high (in a higher scoring era) was 38 goals?
Did you know that Zack Hyman is on pace for 37 goals this season?
For that matter, Evander Kane’s career high is 30 goals. And even last season playing with McDavid he scored at nearly the same pace (42 goals) as Hyman this season.
You have to remember there was no OT and they played a couple of games less in a season.
Also teams know a days pull their Goalie much more freely than in the 70’s and 80’s. You never saw the Goaltender pulled with 2 minutes left or when a team was down by more than 1.
I wouldn’t expect much more from Hyman – this is peak Hyman, including the finishing – he’s not really a great “puck skills” guy with great hands.
Hyman’s a unique player he creates on his own he bulldozes his way into the paint. The wierd thing is he’s 30 and he’s just starting to peak he almost has the redirection play down pat on the PP. It’s a new twist on the PP the opposition can’t cover everyone on the Pk which leaves Hyman open for the redirection of the RNH pass shot.
I think your selling Hyman short. As long as he’s healthy and on PP 1 he’s going to pop 30 plus.
I’m not selling him short – I’m pressing he does pop around 30 which is actually less than he’s currently on par for. I said this is peak Hyman.
You said he could/have 25 goals which would be like a 55-60 goal pace and I retorted with I didn’t think he could give more than he currently has (which is over a 30 goal pay).
Hyman is better Brady Tkachuk than Brady Tkachuk
This season has been tough on Oilers fans so far, lots of ups and downs. Many are calling out Woodcroft for real and perceived sins, so I thought I’d take a look at his overall record for some perspective. Since taking over the bench February 11th, the Oilers have
44 wins (2nd in the league)
.646 win percentage (5th)
36 regulation wins (3rd)
42 regulation + OT wins (3rd)
3.74 GF/GP (1st)
3.07 GA/GP (15th)
28.8% PP (1st)
77.3% PK (21st)
Pretty decent results despite spotty goaltending:
Smith: .926 in 19 starts
Skinner: .916 in 20 starts
Koskinen: .906 in 18 starts
Campbell: .876 in 15 starts
I don’t agree with everything Woodcroft does, but results matter. And despite an uneven start to the season relative to expectations, Woodcroft’s overall NHL record is very good.
I agree, and this is an excellent overall take. He went away from what helped to the record when he first arrived, however. Which is less ice time for the big guys, resulting in a better team system and all lines and players engaged and invested in the game.
Every previous coach of Mcdavid tends to forget that it’s a team game, at some point in their tenure, at their peril.
I can completely understand how this happens because Mcdavid CAN single handed lay win individual games but it doesn’t work for stretches of games much less seasons or all of playoffs.
Woodcroft forgot this for a while…
Wasn’t it just 13 or 14 games with McDavid and Draisaitl playing together?
What makes you think Woodcroft forgot anything?
I think that number is about right, plus playoffs though.
There were reasons (injury to Drai, for example).
But no one’s including those playoffs games as times Woodcroft should have played McDavid and Draisaitl apart, are they?
Draisaitl couldn’t do anything other than shoot and pass, he could barely move out there.
godot10
June 7, 2022 5:45 pm
The most satisfying part of these playoffs, for me, is that Nugent-Hopkins scored meaningful goals. I think it will be somewhat liberating for him.
https://lowetide.ca/2022/06/07/the-knife/#comment-1133172
Lol. Just reminding us all?
Nice prediction. Kudos.
I was unable to watch the game last night. Sounds like a great game.
I am so happy for RNH. He is an absolute beauty. I am sure he felt very confident coming into the season after last year’s excellent playoff performance.
Tyler Ennis, Colton Sceviour, Brendan Perlini all representing Canada in the Spengler – Dusty Nielson with the call.
Wasn’t the last guy offering $78/hr?
Who here thinks we should trade for Chychrun? (Plus for yes. Minus for no).
The real question is what we should pay.
I don’t think anyone would argue that Chychrun wouldn’t be an upgrade on Kulak. As W says, the question is the cost and whether that cost is worth it vis-a-vis using those same assets for a different player-type. That’s a much more difficult question to answer.
The thing with Chychrun, for me, is that his cap hit and contract align so nicely dovetailing with the end of 29’s contract.
The other thing is the putrid idea of trading a 1st round pick for a bottom pairing guy (4/5) like Edmundson.
If you sit at the poker table and don’t play any hands, the blinds will eventually wipe out your stack.
You’ve got a better handle on fancy stats than I do. You mentioned recently that you’re coming onboard with the notion of this trade. Can you elaborate on what it is you think Chychrun adds to the team?
I see (among other things) a non-physical player, who’s often hurt, takes more penalties than he draws, has been sheltered by every NHL coach he’s had (both against elites and with OTF shifts), only puts up points when he’s on a PDO heater, and takes a significant hit in most metrics away from his team’s best player (although that’s unsurprising, considering the team).
His age, skating, passing, and AAV are all in the plus ledger.
I’m far from convinced, but remain open minded.
At a glance, I’d much prefer Ivan Provorov but know neither if he’s available or how we’d fit his AAV.
You’d have to trade Nurse to fit Provorov. But since Nurse now has an NMC … that ship has sailed.
If I were under the employ of an NHL team analytics department, the kind of guy I would be looking for would be a 2015 Jeff Petry… A very good defenseman… who’s generally undervalued by the league… who’s playing above his established ability on a bad team. That’s where you’re going to find a deal.
To evaluate a good defenseman, playing above his ability on a bad team.
Guys that can do that… they don’t post here anymore. (Vic Ferrari, Tyler Dellow).
Even those guys, that’s about one of the hardest stats job to do aside from predicting goalies.
I used to blame MacT for trading Petry for a 3rd and a 5th. I still do, but you can fault the other 28 then GMs in the league for not offering up more.
Look at a guy like Petry in his last year as an Oiler. The stats that year are a mess to look at. Remember Eakins was doing weird things like feeding ozone starts to Schultz and boosting his icetime when the Oilers were trailing.
PuckIQ. The PuckIQ data is weird because it looks like he’s been sheltered. He was even only 3rd in total TOI. My recollection was Petry playing a lot of tough minutes that year.
I’ll post more in a moment…
Often…finding good players who are not valued enough or stuck in roster hell is a good place to look.
Call it the Sakic Gambit after picking up Toews and Girard for relative peanuts.
In looking at the NJD system, they are a few months away from a logjam on D as Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes are poised to grab a spot.
Our old friend Ryan Graves is a UFA at the end of the season and is having a great year.
Could be a perfect low cost acquisition.
6’5” 220
3G 9P +18
SF% 55.07
GF% 70.27!
I’m a guy, who for years up until recently (don’t need any more), would literally buy my cashmere wool coats and parkas in the summer time. I’m old enough that subtle styling changes don’t matter to me and I’d pay half price every time for quality.
I do admire how Sakic’s done business.
Toews wasn’t that under the radar, but Lou was in cap hell and Sakic was armed with cap space and picks.
The time to get a good deal on a defenseman is in the summer, but you need cap space, pics, and a bit of luck.
I’ve always said the Oilers never seem to do a great job at paying attention to the pressure points on other teams and what they need.
Sakic knows where and when to shop.
I think it would be a mistake to think Sakic/Spriggings only identified an opportunity in the summer.
After Hughes dominates the WJHC, the itch will be very strong to get him into the lineup for the post season and NJ will likely be looking for additional forward depth for the playoffs since they will also be able to add Nemec on the right side should that be beneficial.
The alternative for the Devils will be to let Graves walk in free agency and that would just be dumb,
Graves would be a very solid deadline add for the Oilers or any other team.
I think you’ve strayed some ways from reality though if you think NJ are going to trade their 2LD heading into the playoffs in favour of a rookies who haven’t even signed NHL deal yet.
The Devils have other options and Hughes could step into that role without missing a beat.
Fortune favours the bold.
Those other options (aside from 1LD Siegenthaler and the unsigned Hughes) are Brendan Smith (will be 34 and has played ~14 min/game the last 2 seasons) and Kevin Bahl (31 career games, 15 min/game).
A team with playoff aspirations trading their 2LD at the deadline in favour of those ‘options’, to use your words, would just be dumb.
At some point, reality needs to set in with Sakic and Girard as he’s turned in to an unmovable assets at $5MM for term – he’s always been a poor defensive player that could move the puck and pick up points in a sheltered role but his ability to put up points has regressed year over year and, now, he can’t even do that.
Jeff Petry has never been a top tier defender in his career. On the Oilers, he and Schultz were 1a and 1 b with Schultz actually being ahead on even strength TOI. When he went to Montreal he played behind Subban, then Weber until Weber “retired” after the finals run. Last season, his only season there as a top line pair, without Weber bearing the load, he was terrible for 50-60 games and passable down the stretch. He is now fully behind Letang in Pittsburgh.
Petry is also a giveaway machine. Leads the NHL in that category since joining the league and was the league leader in several seasons. Other puck moving D are high on the list too, but given their contributions to actual goals is almost double Petry’s, he should be no where close to the lead in that category.
And the quality of his giveaways would put Bouchard or Nurse to shame. I personally have witnessed him make a horrendous giveaway late in a game that has ended in disaster for his team dozens of times whether with the Habs or the Oilers. That’s part of the reason his expected goal share is higher than his actual goal share in the large majority of his seasons. Great Corsi numbers but actual goal against almost always worse than expected.
A few weeks back, Pittsburgh was in an overtime and someone laid what some perceived to be a questionable hit on his teammate near the benches. Petry rushed in from his blue line to confront the perpetrator, while his teammate was getting up. Meanwhile, the refs said play on and the other team goes in on a wide open 2 on 0 to score the OT winner. The refs didn’t see a problem with play, let the goal stand and Petry’s teammate was fine. If Nurse committed that kind of bone headed play in that moment, in the guise of standing up for his teammate, he’d get crucified on line.
Redbird62, you’ve always got a pretty fair take on things, but our opinion here differs.
If you can acquire a Jeff Petry in the heart of his career, for a 3rd and a 5th, to play on your second pairing, you’re doing okay in my books.
Also, I don’t know if you remember. In 2015, Eakins and Dellow were bending the Space-Corsi continuum. They had some sort of algorithm in which they played Schultz more if the Oilers were trailing (since he had more offensive pop) and Petry more when leading.
Not surprisingly, the Oilers were trailing more often than leading, so that’s why Schultz played more at Evens.
I don’t dispute your second paragraph about him being a good to very good second pair most of the time. I just think the perception of him on here is generally overstated, so I was pointing out his faults. All defenseman have them to varying degrees (except for Orr, Harvey and Lidstrom).
After his reset in Pittsburgh, Schultz was trending to have a better overall career than Petry (brought something different to the table for sure) but several injuries set him back. Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin all liked playing with him and he has played well so far this season in Seattle.
Still no question, not a great move by MacT to let Petry get away for only a 3rd and a 5th. He mishandled that negotiation, but MacT was correct that Schultz was more talented. Of course the Oilers, not much later, lost Schultz for even less.
Schultz is a talented fella. A lot like Bouch who has more jam than him, and a better shot
They need (offensive D) to be used correctly, and paired correctly. Bouch has game breaker ability with his elite passing and shot. When he’s older and has more man strength he’ll be more formidable physically and he better than Schultz
Part of the reason I’m leery about Chychrun is that no other GM has been willing to meet the price for 1.5 yrs or whatever.
Now folks want Holland to be the smartest man in the room on Chychrun, while dumping on him for shunning analytics (because he’s not being the smartest man in the room). I know the Oilers need is greater than most at this point, but still.
And it’s not like Chychrun is costing a 3rd and a 5th here. This HAS to be a consistently high end contributor to justify the price tag.
Chychrun is not a Petry acquisition, for sure.
The analytics, as stated are tricky. He’s a d on a bad team.
I’ve always had my own simple rubric for d.
Other than that, he’s in the heart of his career at 24/5. Injuries are a potential concern for sure.
The problem is, as LT often says, the absence of alternatives clarifies the mind, or something.
Top 4 d, that are in the heart of their careers, just don’t often become available. (edit–> especially ones on extreme value contracts)
Watching the tape on Chychrun, he’s a guy that can skate the puck up the ice reliably, make outlets, and make plays in the offensive zone. He does have a good stick in the defensive zone. He does have a plus shot.
He skates the puck up the ice a little like Bobby Orr in terms of style.
Definitely appreciate you stating your line in the sand.
Made me ask, how are his rels? Looks like CFrel is either flat or okay, once he got up and running in his career. His FFrel is actually better than expected.
When I look at his Vollman sledgehammer on puckiq it’s not a glowing recommendation, but I think the bulk of us around here are aware of the dangers inherent to judging good players on poor teams. Still, just one season above water against elites in FF% (at about 27% TOI), 18-19.
If I look deeper into my reluctance of acquiring the player I think it boils down to these points:
I do see the pro-scouting has improved under Holland’s tenure. It will be interesting to see if the management group decides his risks are worth the potential upside. Because for the rumoured asking price, he’d better be able to bring it night in and night out. Pronger cost less to acquire, and we would be offering better assets than what we got in return for the second or third best defenseman in the entire league at the time.
I’m a big PuckIQ guy. I was constantly in the ears of Woodguy and GMoney around the time they created it, so who knows maybe some of my ideas influenced them, lol. Both guys are awesome dudes.
Still. there’s some nuance to it.
Look at Hampus Lindholm.
His last year in Anaheim, he was playing 30% of his toi against elites with a 45% DFF.
Look at Chychrun last year. He was playing 30% of his toi against elites with a 45% DFF.
Chychrun only played 47 games last year due to injury. Was he playing injured? Did the coaches stack the Ghost and Stralman against the elites when Chychrun was injured thus making it look like they “did the tough sledding?”
Chychrun is a guy who can play top pairing minutes in the National Hockey League. He’s doing it, right now, today. He’s running at 49% FF and 66.6 GF% on a bad team.
He’s a top-pairing defenseman. That’s it.
We currently only have one.
He could anchor the second pairing.
I enjoy watching this TEAM way more with LEON & MCD on different lines.
This is the way forward.
This is the way to Stanley. 🙂
Did anybody else think Janmark almost missed putting the puck in the net from Koskinen pass?
Yes he flubbed it a bit. But the play was so bomber it didnt matter.
He used his entire body to direct it Ryan Smith style he definitely looked shakier than a 82 year-old with a cup of coffee. If it was Hyman he probably hits the Goalies skate then the post and doesn’t go in. If it was Yamo are Jessie they would be so excited they flub it without going in.
Someone brought this up yesterday.
but how is JP not on the PK?
It does seem odd that it hasn’t been tried (and they are unlikely to start trying mid-season) but I would note that numerous. NHL coaches have not played him on the PK and he also has no track record of killing penalties in Finland. In that full season when he returned from the NHL, he played like 2 total, all year, on the PK. I would note in his partial season in Liiga before the NHL started up from the Covid break, he was being used in a depth roll on the PK (by looking at the numbers).
If I had to hazard a guess, it would be that he is frequently out of synch with his line mates. Often shows up in the wrong spot. Will note his friendly fire collisions are down this season, but those rarely happen if you’re in the spot everyone’s expecting.
I think this is an eye-test at odds with the fancy stats issue, as we’re all well aware his metrics away from the puck typically shine bright. Still, every one of his NHL coaches has avoided utilizing him in that role, so there’s got to be something going on that we’re not privy to publicly.
JP doesn’t have the skating required to pk. He’s a fast skater but he changes directions like a cruise ship
I see this as well
Is he any worse at this skating skill than, say, Janmark?
My eye watching is that Janmark is quicker at changing directions that Jesse. Jesse is noticeable on the forecheck and the backcheck getting on opponents with his reach and chasing them in straight lines, which 5 on 5 helps keep the play in the opposition end. He does not distinguish himself in defensive zone coverage which is far more critical in killing a penalty. Communication is always important in defensive zone coverage but even more so on the penalty kill. The 2 defenders have to be very in sync to maintain coverage of shooting and passing lanes. Perhaps Jesse has not mastered that.
Janmark has almost 600 minutes of NHL experience on the PK in his 8 year career and PK’d consistently with every coach he has had on 4 teams. Jesse has a total of 6 minutes in 6 seasons with almost 300 games played with 3 different head coaches. There is no way in over 6 seasons they haven’t considered the concept of whether Jesse could be a viable option on the PK and so far it has been rejected. If he is not on the PK, the coaches have their reasons.
Throw in if he doesn’t feel fully confident at 5 on 5, and then performs poorly on the PK, his confidence issues would get worse.
I wasn’t arguing for Jesse as PK guy on the Oilers right now and have noted no experience in the NHL, under various coaches, and even posted regarding the same in Liiga.
I just wasn’t sure about the “changing directions” specific and brought up Janmark as a guy with lots of PK experience who I don’t believe has any better edges/skating/ability to cut quick than Jesse does but I could certainly be off on that.
I am so happy to see unicorns return to our land. This is how the oilers should be structured by default. I hope we see the return of Jay Evens, because I’ve missed him.
Tyson Barrie is 6th in D-man scoring and 7th in overall P/60. I know there is lots of PP in there but, my goodness, this man is playing great 2-way hockey and full value for that cap hit.
He has likely been our best D, and that’s a problem.
This
Barrie is exceeding himself and I applaud how he has moved his game forward
My issue is he makes critical mistakes frequently. As all the top players have been so far. The hallmark of the best D is rarely making those mistakes
I don’t see Barrie making critical mistakes frequently this season.
Taking a quick look, his GA/60 is sparkling among Oilers D (below 2.5) but, of course, that is far from definitive. I’ll reach out to Bruce and Dave to see where they have Barrie in mistakes on grade A chances against which is quite definitive (without taking in to account quality of comp).
Kane/McDavid/Hyman
Foegle/Drai/Yamamoto
Kostin/Nuge/Janmark
Holloway/McLeod/Puljujarvi
Ryan
I’m sure many will have their tweaks to the deployment, and fair enough, but, if the forwards are ever fully healthy, hot damn…..
I don’t agree with having both Hyman and Kane with McDavid as Drai gets rather shafted in that scenario. My duos right now are: McDavid-Hyman, Kane-Drai, Janmark-Nuge, and one of Foegele-McLeod or Kostin-Ryan (given what they’ve done recently). Based on those duos, I’d deploy:
Hyman McDavid Holloway*
Kane Draisaitl Yamamoto
Janmark RNH Kostin*
Foegele McLeod Puljujarvi*
Ryan*, Hamblin
* largely interchangeable
I’m not particularly tied to the idea of Holloway up with McDavid, I’d just like to see it for a few games. If it works, great! If not, a lower-key W addition like Nyquist or a player acquired in a Jesse trade would fit that spot alongside Connor.
Is that exact lineup salary cap compliant?
It will be once JP is shipped out.
Oh, that’s a good point and, no it isn’t, not with the extra players, not even close.
If they activate Kane without any other changes, they would need to go back to a 21 player roster and it wouldn’t be able to have both Ryan and Jamark on it.
If that’s the case, Ryan will need to be waived/assigned and, yes, I would definitely move Ryan over Jesse in that scenario. Of course, moving Jesse and the entire $3MM out via trade is something else on the table.
Kane/McDavid/Hyman
Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
Kostin/McLeod/Puljujarvi
Janmark/Holloway/Foegle
Ryan
I would tweak it this way. Having 3 lines that can really play NHL top 6 calibre hockey would be fire, and that 4th line easily could do amazing things as well. 3rd and 4th could be tweaked even more depending, but a healthy forward group would go a long ways. Now if the D can just get it together.
That is another option that I’d be amenable to as well. At this point in time, given last night, I’m liking the “3 centres strong” but that could change over the next 6 weeks before Kane is back and, also, finding the minutes for McLeod at 4C will always prove tough for this lineup (although he would get PK minutes).
Huh, splitting up Connor and Leon works! Who would have thought? Nurse is a hot mess and probably feeling the pressure now that NHL players from other teams are pointing out how he’s so grossly overpaid. He’s unaware of danger moments half the game it seems. Is his contract even tradable? I don’t think hockey IQ can be coached to the level he needs to be a top 2 guy. Hope I’m wrong, but Eck calls it out on that blown play leaving Kostin out of water on D. Nurse doesn’t recognize danger. Horrible pinch and no effort skating back. Not a winning formula having him as our #1 dman. Just my opinion of course, I’m a clueless fan 🙃
It was not a pinch. Nurse was the puck carrier in the middle of the ice on a 3 on 2. He passed off to Janmark on the left as he crossed the blue line and kept going up the middle to the net along with Nuge for the return pass or rebound. If Nurse isn’t supposed to keep going forward on that play, no defenseman should ever be more than 5 feet over the blue line.
Janmark fired the puck across towards the net but too far in front of both Nurse and Nuge but also missed the net so the puck caromed around the boards. Nurse immediately circled back and would have been fine if Kostin, who properly stayed back, had done anything at all to slow Johnston down.
What I want to know is why Janmark who was coming back out of the zone perfectly with Johnston decided to drop him and go completely to the other opposite side of the ice to hit Marchment at the Stars blue line who was now free to pass the puck past Janmark to the streaking Johnston? Nuge was already closing in on him from behind and Ceci and Nurse were between Marchment and the Oilers blue line. If Janmark tracks back to his zone on that play, Johnston wouldn’t have been so wide open to take the pass at all.
I don’t know what instructions Woody etal. would give each of those players on how to handle these various decisions, but he would have zero problem in that sequence with Nurse continuing into the zone.
I’m curious which players are voicing that hes grossly overpaid? Seems unreal to me unless you mean other teams fans and our own fans?
I loved the Hyman-Gordie Howe story as well. There is a lesson there for us parents. The ability of our kids to have a Zach Hyman-like work ethic is much higher than the chance they will be blessed with Connor McDavid-like skills.
Disagree with the CoH grades on Nurse and Puljujarvi.
Nurse was caught at times, yes (although JP makes a good argument that the Johnson goal is more on Kostin). But he was wheeling the puck out of danger and outletting the puck effectively all night.
Puljujarvi was quiet in the first two periods — not bad against top opp on the road — but very good in the third. In addition to the secondary apple, created havoc on the forecheck and created oops and free ice for 97.
Also:
I don’t know how anyone can watch a game and say LD is more effective as a winger. He is simply punishing as a C. He’s a hell of a striker, but even more hellish as a midfielder. Look at the Foegele goal. Master distributor of the puck. The easier pass was Yamo, but LD picked the harder option (Foegele), executed the pass perfectly, and was rewarded.
I haven’t had a chance to read Bruce’s write-up yet but I did listen to the post-game pod and, yes, for me, I thought they were a bit overly-critical of Nurse’s game.
Nope, it wasn’t a perfect game from Darnell and he did get somewhat lucky that Benn hit the post when he was swimming but, overall, I thought he was effective. I agree with most that its odd he’s leaving his feet so much and its not working but, overall, he was effective in the defensive zone, defending hard behind the goal line and getting the puck out.
I don’t fault him on the opening goal and I would posit that the coaching staff is all for him joining the rush when there is full forward support, which he had.
He’ll start being more effective once he stops star fishing. Until then, I full support dropping his grade by 1/2 a point for every time he tried to play defence from his knees, or down on his belly.
Everybody is praising Woodcroft’s line juggling this morning. But what did he really do?
Most of the changes he made were changes most posters had been calling for for a few weeks. It still puzzles me why it took so long to place Kostin with a skilled center. I know it’s a small sample size, but when a player demonstrates the skills and vision that others aren’t showing….. why not give him a shot.
He has waaay better hands and puck protection skills than JP or Foegele, and he seems to see the ice and make plays that other wingers do not. Too bad it took 20 games for the coaching staff to recognize this.
Woodcroft’s coaching has been very underwhelming this season.
yeah I mean why does he keep telling our complimentary players to miss their scoring chances
It seems many like to equate in-game player deployment with coaching, end stop.
I would posit that Woody’s job description includes ALOT more than any us could analyze from where we post.
I’m not sure we can measure his quality of coaching.
It’s a story line for media and people alike, better than picking apart a victory or players’ performances.
I’d rather that small detail become a headline than most of the articles/comments I read.
Re: Kostin
Perhaps consider the possibility that Kostin was left down the lineup so that he could keep succeeding in a position where he was showing himself to be comfortable- particularly after changing teams for the first time since coming to North America. A strong argument can be made for not messing with lines that are working even if ones higher up the batting order aren’t.
RNH is playing the best Hockey of his Career it looks as if the game has slowed done a fraction of a second for him. Janmark and Kostin seem to complement his game as they are bigger bodies for the cycle yet both skate well with neither one has the worst hands is the world. I’m sure they enjoyed the weather in Bakersfield but I would I bet these two Gentlemen want to never set foot in that city again.
Unfortunately, I was unable to watch the game due to a power outage in my fine town.
Ended up playing euchre by candlelight with the family, when the power came back, they were announcing the three stars. Just saw the highlights. From what I gathered Nurse needs to slop conserving his energy and show more urgency defensively, after all he is a defenseman. He isn’t good enough to play from a rocking chair.
He also needs to stop imitating a starfish, man o man that was the worst one ever last night.
He is spending more time lying down on the ice than standing up. It’s getting worse. There is a time and place for that play but it takes you out of the action and he does it way too often.
It’s past time one of the media guys ask Woody if that is something they are encouraging.
The Russell starfish just doesn’t work. He’s a big guy with a big wingspan. He needs to stay on his feet
Russell had great timing, also he was able to recover his feet relatively quickly after (usually) disrupting the point of attack.
It appears that opposing players have figured out that snow angel is a strong tendency for Darnell and take advantage of it.
RNNH finally has gained his fabled Man Strength as prophesied by Eakins Late Bloomer is finally healthy 100% and confident. Maybe he completely strengthened that shoulder !
Shoulders are very hard to strengthen very easy to wreck! way to easy to train and wreck them. A bench press recruits more a
shoulder and most people wreck their rotar cuff or impinge it by doing that simple movement. RNH could be having Strength issues his whole career related to the shoulder and he looks way healthier now
I read somewhere that Hawks used to employ kettlebell turkish get-ups for shoulder strength/stability. Excellent exercise!
Just needs 9 more points to crack 50 for the first time in his career!
$5.1M is a splendid cap number for a PPG+ player.
I was thinking that earlier about Nuge, as well as Hyman and Kane.
10th in league scoring and 13th in goal – and we are nearly half way in.
Great on the PK. Great on the PP. Defends leads. Scores from mid-range distances with snipes. Responsible almost every shift.
What a player.
I noticed last night that Kulak was playing very physical and getting under the Stars skin. I like that in his game.
I thought they all did a good job of that. Lots of filthiness out there last night. Kostin set the tone with that hit off the opening faceoff five seconds in and the Oilers didn’t back down the rest of the game.
I loved it when Leon decked big Hakanpaa with a greasry shoulder check.
Great game last night. The Oilers are so much better when they spread the lines out and play a simpler game. I know the big guys are in great shape but there is always a drop off in performance with a bit of fatigue. Even a 10 percent drop off makes a difference when they get over 20 mins on a night. I still play pick up hockey every week with the same guys for 15 years and if our bench is short from guys not making it I find most of my passes are a bit off in the third period from fatigue. I know its not the same but those guys are working a lot harder than I am out there.
While both McDavid and Leon have produced more points later in the games this year (not much in the first generally), they haven’t really been able to “step it up” late in games recently and will the goals.
I don’t think we should gloss over that, in a close game where the Oilers never led until the 3rd but the ice time was spread (mostly among 3 lines), both McDavid and Drai made big plays in the 3rd (separately) to help win the game.
Nice thing about splitting up the centers is it becomes impossible to overplay them.
Drai played 17 min. the big man should not play more than 20 min a game
nuge 17 min
mcdavid 20 min
Why do most fans have this figured out more than Woody does?🤔
I will nitpick on the 20 min limit for Leon. Don’t get me wrong, I love when the Oilers win an and the big guys are at 17-19 minutes but there are indeed times when Leon can, and should, play 20, 22 or even 23-24 minutes in a game. It can’t be the norm, with that I agree, but its not something he’s incapable of doing.
That 1970-71 Bruins team was amazing – the way they got themselves bounced in the 1st round.
In 1967, while the NHL did the expansion teams no favours in letting them add players, they set up the playoffs so that generally those expansion teams played each other until the finals. When the Canucks and the Sabres were added, the Blackhawks went over the West, with the first round still being kept within division.
Consequently despite having one of the most dominant regular seasons in league history, the Bruins reward in the first round was to play the Canadiens, who had finished 4th overall in the league standings (out of 8 that made the playoffs) and 3rd in their division. Why the league had 1st play 3rd and 2nd play 4th in round 1 is puzzling.
The Habs, only 2 years removed from winning the cup in 1969, added future hall of famer Frank Mahovolich mid-season and the rookie phenom goaltender Ken Dryden late in the year. So the Habs were a line up that had 8 future Hall of Fame players for that series (would have been 9 had Savard not gotten injured). Boston still heavily outshot the Canadiens on average 41 to 33, but Dryden out goalied Cheevers (and Johnson for 1 game) in the 7 game series.
Crushing for the Boston fans to be sure, but it was unfortunate that they had to play the Habs in round 1 (who won cups in 1969,1971 and 1973 to surround the Bruins cups in 1970 and 1972). It is nothing like modern day upsets where a wild card team bounces the Presidents trophy winner.
Among the plethora of stupid rules the NHL has at times deployed, that first plays third, second plays fourth rule was perhaps the dumbest.
Bettman Point rule the dumbest by some margin, where the league promises to do away with ties but actually *rewards* them with 50% more points than decided games. Directly affects the integrity of competiton, where competing teams can have a common interest within a game (keep a tie score tied) that benefits them at the expense of the other teams who aren’t even playing in that game.
That said, the 1v3, 2v4 playoff structure was nonsensical. I remember 7-year-old me watching my first playoffs in 1963 asking my older, (also-)mathematically-inclined brothers why is it better to finish 2nd than 1st?
3 point games is the only way to make
the Bettman point fair. 3 points for a regular time win, two for o/t win, 1 for o/t loss and 0 for regular time loss
Yes indeed. A simple, elegant, & most importantly fair solution.
I’ve been standing on that soapbox for a long, looooong time now.
https://www.coppernblue.com/2009/11/17/1162549/what-is-the-value-of-a-game-tying
Yes this is the solution. Or else scrap the shootout and the one point to loser. Make the OT seven minutes and if nothing is decided give each team a point.
The loser point is mind boggling. Gary likes the standings to stay tight though.
You have a friend in Pierre LeBrun who touts that change and a bunch of others.
https://theathletic.com/4026258/2022/12/22/nhl-rules-changes-lebrun/?source=user_shared_article
Vetoed because Brian Burke thought it was a terrible idea. As I recall Burke also intimated that hockey fans are too dumb to understand it.
Meanwhile it took the IIHF & all the European leagues about 15 minutes to figure it out, & they’ve gotten it right ever since. This year, finally, the Memorial Cup got on board, maybe the antediluvian “200 Hockey Men” running the show on this continent may yet come around?
I expect Gary Bettman will stand in the way until he retires.
He just turned 70.
I too find the current system frustrating, and would prefer 3-2-1. I would disagree with a system that only had 2-0 points with 3 on 3 overtime 5 minute OT and shootout. That’s too big a spread for winning or losing in gimmicky hockey.
Has anyone done a long term study for the entire time period of the extra point, to see how much the standings would have changed if the rule had been 3-2-1, with particular focus on how much who would have changed who made the playoffs? It could also affect standings within the playoffs for match ups and home ice, and also affect lottery order, but these considerations are secondary to the first. While the study could really only look at the results assuming all game results remained the same. No way to know if teams would have played differently under a different point structure, and even if they did, how to determine if it would meaningfully change the outcome. That should also be compared to what the standings would have looked like if every tie game was ended in regulation under the pre-1983 system. If this doesn’t change the past outcomes meaningfully, then the topic generates a lot of unnecessary angst. I do not know which way the results of that study would go.
Since one of the main objectives of the adherence to the NHL’s current system was to prolong lower teams in any given season being meaningfully in the playoff hunt to late in the season (or more importantly, at least perceived to be), the study might want to add whether a lot of teams under the current system that seemed to have a possibility of sneaking into the playoff would have instead been considered completely out of it much earlier in the season under a 3-2-1 system. If playoff races were decided much earlier with the switch to 3-2-1, I think you’d have your answer as to whether the owners and GM’s would switch.
In a world of three point games, the Oilers would sit much higher in the standings right now. Our 16 regulation wins are second only to Vegas in the Pacific.
The key to Montreal winning that ’71 series against Boston was Game 2 when they came from behind 5-1 to win 7-5.
With the comeback mostly in the 3rd period with 5 goals, Johnston played the whole game in net. He’d had a pretty decent season splitting almost half the games with Cheevers and the first two games were back to back.
The 40 year old Beliveau was the main contributor of the comeback with 3 of his 4 points in the game on goals 3, 4 and 6 in the third period. Finished the playoffs with 22 points in 20 games got his name being written on to the cup for a 10th time and rode off into the sunset. What a player.
Sometimes, Ken Dryden says no.
And then the answer is no.
Best performance of the season:
THAT was the Puljujarvi game that fans loved i the first half last season. No, he doesn’t necessarily “make McDavid better” but he helps keeps the puck out of the defensive and in the offensive zone, he creates chaos, broken exits and turnovers, makes some plays to get McDavid the puck.
10th in league scoring. 13th in league goal scoring. Great on PK. PP witch. Lethal shot from mid-range. Found a physicality and battle level on the boards we haven’t seen before. What a season. What a player.
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Holy hell! The stat line matches the eye. Those six hits are hits with authority. They are in all zones and they aren’t chase hits with no effect that takes him out of the play. He makes plays with the puck. A few mistakes last night (after a great play to support the activating d-man he played the rush poorly, also a PIM) but he adds an element of skilled size an aggression that makes the team better.
His best NHL game to my eye. He doesn’t need to “hunt” and crush opponents at the blue to make an impact. In fact, that play, even when it “works” and hurt with the puck coming back fast and him up ice. He was still very physical behind the net, defended very effectively and was good enough moving the puck. I liked his game last night and, while I was nervous with that pair on the ice late in the game, its wasn’t cause of their play in last night’s game and they made my worry unnecessary.
Hopefully we can see “THIS GAME” more often!
Re your remarks on Jesse.
I gather you are happy with his play and am wondering what a player like him is worth, not his potential worth, and what line should he play on.
THAT player is worth his current cap hit. I’m not sure where that player “should” play but I think he’s capable of playing with McDavid, as we saw last night, but also on the 3rd line – if Nuge is the 3C, I think that type of Jesse would fit well (and he’d likely carry the puck a bit more too).
I fully acknowledge that McDavid had a quiet offensive game for the most part but I don’t think that was due to Jesse being on his wing and I think that Jesse was a great help to creating 3rd period offence from that line – a great play leading to McDavid’s goal and a couple other solid plays with the puck – one that set McDavid up with space and a lane to the net – that will cash many times.
Kostin reminded me of Patrick Maroon on that first goal. Used his size to make room and showed great passing ability to find Janmark.
Maroon didn’t really catch on in the NHL until he was 25, 2 years older than Kostin is now. Just saying.
Can they actually string together multiple games in a row playing like this now? I’m already concerned they will play down to Vancouver tmrw.
It’s too early to peak.
(tongue in cheek)
A great win! I have a question – hear me out! I’d love it if someone could explain to me why that was Nurse’s man instead of Kostin’s. Nurse got caught deep in the 0-zone as sometimes happens, but hustled back to defend, though on the right hand side instead of the left. Kostin was closer to the puck carrier (on the left) and got turnstiled. Nurse couldn’t get over in time to cover. Apparently Nurse’s mistake was being out of position; but if he’d moved left to cover the puck carrier he’d have been double teaming with Kostin, which would have left the middle-right side of the ice completely open (the other Oilers d-man Ceci? was almost at the right side boards so wouldn’t have been able to cover the middle. So, as I’m reading it, Nurse trusted Kostin to cover the puck carrier, and lost that bet. But what is the point of the winger covering for a d-man if not to cover for him? I get that Kostin is not a d-man, but that was his job wasn’t it? I am sure I’m wrong about all this, but would love to better understand why.
A smart former NHL defenseman recently told me ‘never trust a forward’ and that was an example. Nurse jumped into a play that hadn’t developed and he didn’t impact it offensively. Needed to be back with proper spacing. That’s the job.
As a longtime D, this is truth. Only exception is when D’s sneak down in the O-zone, the strong-side F can be trusted to cover point.
Nurse is a rover – just wish he’d be able to pick his spots better by now.
Nurse is not a rover. He is a two-way defenseman, that should not be trying to conserve energy when it comes time to get back to defend in his defensive zone.
Credit Koskin for doing his best to cover for Nurse.
He was not trying to conserve energy. He was back in the middle of the ice with Ceci along the wall to his right and Kostin on his left. Kostin blew the coverage on the forward.
Kostin played that about as badly as anyone could.
Fair enough (as noted by LT and Sage) that Nurse should never trust a forward, but Nurse expecting there would be SOME kind of impediment to Johnston, or at least to force him a little to the outside seems totally reasonable.
By fishing for the pass like he did, Kostin effectively jumped out of the way rather than at least making Johnston change his route slightly.
Nurse is being faulted for staying in a rush he led as well. I don’t agree with that either, but it is what it is.
Anyway, glad they got the win so this isn’t a play that defined the game.
You nailed it JP. In a world of five man units and activating D, this is the correct evaluation and precisely how Manwood would see it.
I agree fully with the original post.
I don’t fault Nurse at all for joining that rush. That’s part of his job, part of the structure of this team and he had the requisite forward support covering for him.
Kostin did a fantastic job recognizing and providing that forward cover. Unfortunately he made a poor defensive play/decision when stepping up on Johnson and got walked/burnt.
Its not Nurse’s fault that the cover made such a poor play and, in fact, as its been pointed out, Nurse wasn’t even caught – he’s such a fine skater that he was back in time and was parallel with Kostin covering the middle of the ice. Also as has been pointed out, where was Ceci? Its like Nurse was covering for Ceci.
In any even, of course, Kostin can’t be expected to defend as well as Nurse (or any other actual d-man) but he can be expected to make a better play than he did and not turn a 3 on 3 rush in to a 2 on 1.
Listened to the away broadcasters and the Dallas guys are top notch.
Good insight into what they think the Oilers and lamented the former Dallas Star Jannmark sticking it to his old team.
Extra respect for Draisatl in the commentary too.
Big W!
I also tuned into TNT. They’re heads and shoulders above the home broadcast crew. I really miss Ray Ferraro on colour, and the TSN crew in general (especially Duthie and Miller).
TNT called the game (with few prolonged tire pumping sessions between hosts or rambling diatribes that the Sportsnet crew are so prone to) as they saw it, calling out weak effort or strong play for both teams. Some homerism, but nothing like listening to the BOS crew. Barrie also got some props (in addition to Draisaitl) from them last night too.
Big Confidence builder. To me that was the best overall game they have played this year. Good one to put in the bank before Xmas.