Serge Savard, the great Montreal Canadiens defenseman, once described the team slump that cost the Habs a post-season berth in the spring of 1970. The Canadiens, who won Stanley in 1969 and 1971, spent the winter injured, aging and auditioning; nothing rhymed. That Montreal team was a great one, the current Oilers merely good. The rule still applies: This Edmonton team can’t get out of its own way, and we could be seeing the final months of some players, coaches and management in the NHL. Seriously.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, quality prospects
- New DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard’s difficult season disguises elite talent
- New DNB: Why the Oilers should, but probably won’t, acquire Jakob Chychrun
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers keep Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together?
- Lowetide: What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer make the NHL leap next season?
- New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers’ Philip Broberg’s progress as an NHL defenceman
- DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
- Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- DNB: Connor McDavid questions NHL rules, Darnell Nurse’s gaffes prove costly in Oilers loss
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- DNB: If the Oilers can trade Jesse Puljujarvi, where is he likely to end up?
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is redefining his role
- DNB: The Oilers don’t need someone like Zack Kassian. They need more efforts like this
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 5-5-2, 12 points in 12 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 18-15-2, 38 points in 35 games
Christmas outside the playoffs, caught by the Calgary Flames is the ghost of Christmas past and now present, and we await the future. The team has an overall goal differential of 126-121, the average NHL team is 106-106 goals. December looked like the month this team could gather some momentum after surviving a tough November, but the defensive side of the game remains elusive. As Christmas weekend dawns, it is indeed a long December and fans are searching for a reason to believe.
SUMMARY
- The first Miller goal: Jesse Puljujarvi was unable to move the puck out along the wall, and didn’t notice when that damnable disc slid into open ice. Miller’s shot was stopped by Skinner, who sent it heavenward. He got caught in a bad spot when gravity took over, and allowed a regrettable goal.
- The second Miller goal: Elias Pettersson sent a good shot on net from the right side, Skinner saved but gave out a juicy rebound. Miller cashed with authority, Tyson Barrie also in photo.
- Bo Horvat goal: A flukey play, I think the real crime was some soft work along with wall by Barrie, although Nuge lost position on Horvat who had a wide open net. Skinner was out of position when the puck went in.
- Ilya Mikheyev goal: Klim Kostin lost a battle, the Oilers failed to cover Mikheyev in the high slot and Skinner didn’t make the stop.
LET’S TALK
I don’t think people should be terribly upset by Edmonton’s current position, there are reasons for it. Some of Ken Holland’s bets (Jack Campbell, Philip Broberg, Ryan Murray) haven’t worked out and the Evander Kane injury had a major impact. It’s also true that several young players (Evan Bouchard, Jesse Puljujarvi, Dylan Holloway) have either struggled in delivering expected performance or have not been used in a way that would bring optimal performance.
One of the things I like to do is look at the most recent 10 games, to get an idea about how things are going. For the record, the team is 4-4-2 in these games, the fourth best record in the division. Edmonton’s 38 points in 35 games is an accurate reflection of the team at this time. Numbers are points-60 and then goal share, all at five-on-five.
- Derek Ryan 3.11, 63 pct
- Connor McDavid 2.64, 47 pct
- Klim Kostin 2.54, 56 pct
- Warren Foegele 2.53, 60 pct
- Zach Hyman 2.16, 50 pct
- Leon Draisaitl 1.90, 44 pct
- RNH 1.83, 50 pct
- Kailer Yamamoto 1.76, 60 pct
- Jesse Puljujarvi 1.15, 50 pct
- Mattias Janmark 0.86, 46 pct
- Devin Shore 0.81, 50 pct
- Dylan Holloway 0.66, 75 pct
- Darnell Nurse 1.27, 50 pct
- Evan Bouchard 1.23, 47 pct
- Philip Broberg 0.83, 50 pct
- Tyson Barrie 0.73, 58 pct
- Cody Ceci 0.71, 46 pct
- Brett Kulak 0.70, 50 pct
- Markus Niemelainen 0.00, 67 pct
- Stuart Skinner 8 games, .912
- Jack Campbell 2 games, .907
Several depth forwards are chipping in, Kailer Yamamoto is contributing and the puck is heading in a good direction while he’s on the ice. Klim Kostin is stealing someone’s job in real time, but Warren Foegele isn’t likely to be dealt based on recent performances. Derek Ryan has enjoyed an outstanding run.
On defense, Tyson Barrie is the class of the group, with Markus Niemelainen looking more confident since his return.
It’s difficult to be overly critical of Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse, but if the Oilers were even slightly above 50 percent with these men on the ice, the team’s record would be better. Finally, I always like to look at the centers outscoring at five-on-five, this is for the entire year:
- Connor McDavid: 11-14, 44 pct
- Leon Draisaitl: 15-20, 43 pct
- 97 and 29: 16-33, 55 pct
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 10-12, 45 pct
- Ryan McLeod: 7-8, 47 pct
- The rest: 8-8, 50 pct
Edmonton has scored 26 and allowed 34 when McDavid solo and Draisaitl solo are on the ice. I’m no expert, but would suggest fixing the Oilers might start there. It might also be time to abandon the idea that Broberg is a key element for this team in 2022-23.
Merry Christmas everyone.
The kids shoud be getting up any minute.
Just wanted to say thank you to LT & all the commenters.
I mostly lurk, but read daily.
I hope you all have the best day (even HH)
Cheers!
Merry Christmas everyone!
It was easier to be a fan of this team during the days of Weight, Guerin, Arnott, Grier, Marchant, Niinimaa, Mironov, Salo et al. Lower expectations, and they worked hard night in, night out. I remember the buzz was always “if we only had a legit superstar instead of being a farm team for the rest of the NHL”. Now we have the top 2 scorers in the league and are barely .500. Webster says that is the definition of disappointment AND frustration.
Those David vs Goliath takedown series of Dallas and Colorado will always be my Stanley cups
I’m really not a fan of when the players say ‘have to find a way to win’
Because it sounds like ‘we’re barely in it or behind’. That with a roster like theirs, there is some element they need to find, some magic, game in and out
Instead of just playing the basics of the game well, the details, and in doing that they should beat most teams most nights
It isn’t a perfect roster, but it is significant, if they play proper NHL hockey well, as we saw with Dallas
Yeah there definitely seems to be some mental hurdle that needs overcome with this organization. Can’t get past the looming shadow of the Dynasty, it would seem.
IDK what teams like PIT, TBY, or CHI and even DET and COL before them did so much different internally, but those teams seemed to bring it every game. Regular season and playoffs. They had swagger.
Having said that, plenty of teams bring a high level of consistency and execution but fail to make a dent when it counts. VGK, SJS, TOR, CAR, (BOS and WAS to a lesser extent), Sedin-era VAN, would be a great example of that in recent years. Forever the bridesmaid, but never the bride.
Thin margins at the top. Problem is, we’re not even knocking on the door consistently. With this core, that’s a damn shame.
You first have to learn to play your thing consistently
Then you are in a position to roll the dice
I like the chances of the Duo being able to. IF they accept what it takes in the whole
The Hawks won 3 with varying D style and performance as I see it
I think ot really starts at not instantly choking minutes off when trailing.
If your first pp unit plays 95% of pp time – there’s absolutely no way they should also all be on pk units.
There’s excess minutes that I think impede consistent team play if they were spread around properly.
Site is back up and running.
Awesome, thanks.. Allan, my thoughts are with you and your children this last few days. I truly hope that you find a few moments of joy.
Thanks, Uncle Miltie. It is tear filled but we are comforting each other with stories about Mom and the amazing person she was for all of us. It won’t be a traditional Christmas, how could it be? But we will be together and make the best of it.
Being to together with family is all you really need.
Merry Christmas.
I am looking forward to the Christmas Day post. Always my favorite.
Bless you LT and your entire family. I hope you feel the love from all of us today.
The OIler’s are a bubble playoff team this year … pretenders rather than contenders.
While LT remains bullish on their playoff chances, I think we should acknowledge that there’s a reasonable chance for the Oilers’s first round pick this year to be in the lottery.
This year a few things have to happen to change that outlook:
Holloway and McLeod have to start playing meaningful minutes up the roster.
Broberg has to settle in at the NHL level and take over the LHD position, taking pressure off Nurse, who is clearly trying to do too much.
Three lines with McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH need to be established … and those lines need to start winning the goal share battle consistently.
Campbell needs to get more games so that he can get acclimated and start earning his pay cheque.
Kane needs to come back completely healthy … he should not be rushed back until his arm is completely healed.
That’s a long list … and realistically, some of these things are not likely to happen this season. And most of these things are not going to be solved by trading away a massive load of futures for a LD.
I’d be more in favour of them looking for new homes for Jesse, Foggy and even Yamo … these three guys are depth wingers, rather than players who move the needle … I’d rather give the minutes to Holloway, McLeod and Kostin for the rest of the season, then go into next summer armed with some cap space, rather than hold onto any of the “9 million dollar men” past the trade deadline.
If the Oilers are still muddling along by the time the trade deadline comes along, then I’d advocate for trading Barrie … his value will never be higher, and despite how well he’s played this year, he could fetch a good return.
I don’t think the Oilers have been firing on all pistons since Kane went down, and they had issues before then as well. Holland waits to the deadline, but will add pieces. I suspect Edmonton’s next Stanley comes in the next three seasons or not in my lifetime, so the deadline will be important.
The Oilers are in LTIR. Which means there is nothing to be gained by waiting. And particularly since because of injury, there is no way for Broberg to arrive in time, and Bouchard got on the milk run bus instead of the express. The Oilers are under pressure the rest of the way. Not an environment to give Broberg the ice time he needs.
I would try to use Bouchard and Yamamoto and this year 1st round pick as the trade bait, rather than Holloway, Broberg, or Bourgault. I would consider trading McLeod in a deal because of the big three centres and Holloway.
The combination of Broberg and Barrie cover for Bouchard. And Bourgault will replace what Yamamoto brings soon enough at a lower price point.
And since Puljujarvi is unlikely to be back, he would be used to balance salary in trades.
The Oilers need a legit #3 overall D ASAP.
The Oilers are waiting because Holland believes in Broberg.
The Nurse story is interesting.
What’s interesting is the discrepancy between the consensus vs reality.
The vibe is that he’s overworked.
The reality? He’s lost 42 seconds per game from last season. He’s lost a minute from two seasons ago.
Not even in the top 20 for TOI among D.
And he spends most of that with the best two players in the league.
Nurse lost 43 seconds at 5v5 from last season with absolutely no one pushing. That should be a concern. I’m surprised no one is talking about it.
Last year, according to Puck IQ, he increased his toi versus elite competition after Woodcroft took over. His minutes have been difficult, even allowing for his linemates.
Ceci has regressed from last year. Bouchard decided to take the milk run bus instead of the express. Nurse has no one to play with. Also, Nurse spent the short summer healing and on honeymoom and I believe there is a baby (?) Less time for summer training and preparation.
in Nurse’s best season, where he was 7th in Norris voting, he played apx 65% of his time with Tyson Barrie and they killed it. His 5 on 5 minutes were higher than currently playing as well.
That was in a weak Canadian division schedule, playing the same teams over and over again.
One could get away with playing Barrie top pair.
Was it actually a weak division?
My recollection is the West division had the fewest elite players, and a higher points gap between the successful teams and the lottery contenders.
I know that was the prevalent narrative at the time, but I remain as skeptical now as I was then that that was actually the case.
One would think the likes of Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Petterson, etc. would be able to find ways to exploit a d-man after playing him over and over again.
Sorry for turning the game on after the 1st.
The coach needs to have some 1 on 1’s with a few of the stars on their commitment to defense, embarrassing stuff.
Holland needs 2 top 6D if not top 4 immediately.
Nurse/XX
XX/Ceci
Kulak/Bouchard
Trade Broberg, fix this defense immediately or its all for nothing.
Can Keith come out of retirement for the stretch?
Over the years, the goal has been to get the McDavid/Drai off minutes to at least saw off. I think we all presume that the Oilers will win the minutes when either McDavid and/or Drai are on the ice. Its somewhat of a shock that the haven’t this season.
This has been pointed out sporadically for last 6-8 weeks. Pointing it out does not equate to saying that McDavid/Drai are the problem with this team. Positing that McDavid and Drai need to have better results at 5 on 5 is not the same as saying they are the problem with the team.
I think we can all agree that this team is going nowhere if the team doesn’t materialll outscore at 5 on 5 with those two on the ice, seperate and together. This hasn’t been the case and it needs to turn around. There are many reasons, working together, why this isn’t the case – wingers not performing as expected or needed, poor defensive play and massive turnover mistakes leading to GA when they are on the ice – this list includes McDavid/Drai themselves having lapses defensively, of course.
Re-set boys and come back committed, nightly!
Maybe if we quit calling them boys.
Last post I have for everyone..
One idea that an esteemed poster has espoused here is that we shouldn’t trade for Jacob Chychrun because he has to be sheltered at 5v5.
Now, this idea has taken fire and is generally accepted here at as a fact
I’m looking at the numbers, and I don’t get it.
This season, Chychrun plays a minute more than the next defensemen at 5v5 on his team. He also has the lowest on the fly starts per 60 on his team.
Last season, he was also the time on ice leader albeit only by 36 seconds. He also had the lowest on the fly starts per 60.
Okay, so here’s where I’m lost. Given that the best players tend to play the most minutes at 5v5 on their teans, how do you shelter Chychrun when he plays the most minutes and is likely to therefore be exposed to the best players on the opposing team?
Worse yet, how do you shelter a defenseman when you’re not using on the fly starts?
Happy Holidays all!
Over the last four seasons, his most common opponents at five-on-five are Drew Doughty, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba and Samuel Girard among defensemen.
Forwards he faced most often are Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog.
That’s the heart of the order.
TOI% vs Elites
2022/23: 23.6
2021/22: 31
2020/21: 22.7
2019/20: 31.8
2018/19: 27.2
2017/18: 26.6
2016/17: 23.2
DFF% (rel) vs Elites
2022/23: 46.2 (17.4)
2021/22: 45 (2.6)
2020/21: 47.7 (8.9)
2019/20: 46.4 (6.6)
2018/19: 51.8 (1.2)
2017/18: 47.8 (3.1)
2016/17: 35.9 (-4.1)
Don’t have time to post more, have to dip out on a supply run before everything closes but his results against the middle and grittensity competition is flat by comparison. Surprisingly decent against elites, but it’s tough to argue (by TOI%) he’s getting the lion’s share of deployment against the toughest opposition. Pretty sure the last couple seasons have seen other players favoured against elites more than him, hence the notion that he’s sheltered relative to teammates. Injuries play a role in that, as we can’t know how often he was playing at less than 100% capacity. But, as Godot often says, availability is a skill.
Source: http://puckiq.com/players/8479345?player=8479345&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team
Couple things.
First, how are you getting 2022-3 PuckIq data? This year’s data isn’t available.
PuckIQ is great, but people run into all sorts of problems when they cite small percentages differences in PuckIQ data as some sort of established fact.
Like let’s say as one simple example, you have four actual NHL defensemen. Let’s say they all play an equal amount of time vs the elites, okay?
Defensemen #3 gets injured after game 47. To compensate, the other three guys get fed more time against the elites per game than previously.
So now, you look at the end of season data and low and behold, defender #3 has less time against elites, so he’s getting sheltered all of a sudden.
The other thing is that PuckIQ is just an estimate.
Coaching strategies play a role in deployment too.
The question I’d like answered is how do you play a defenseman the most 5v5 minutes on your team with the least on the fly starts and shelter him?
Most people would consider Roman Josi to be a pretty good defenseman, no?
He plays the most minutes at 5v5 on the Preds.
He was second in Norris voting last year.
Turns out you, me, and every who voted him second in Norris votes last season? We’re all wrong.
Dude’s a bum. Looks how hard John Hynes had to work to shelter him last season.
http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20212022&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=nsh&group_by=player_season_team
19 minutes per night at 5v5. Least on the fly starts on his team.
Hynes must be wiring cash to opposing coaches to keep the QOC down against Josi?
Most people remember Justin Schultz winning a cup in Pittsburgh after getting traded.
What I will never forget is the cat and mouse game played during those playoffs, particularly against the Sharks.
Letang was put out on the ice for every face off when the Sharks had last change. He would jump off the ice and change with Justin Schultz as soon as the Pens crosses the Red line and conversely would jump back on the ice when the play headed into their zone.
https://www.pensburgh.com/platform/amp/2016/6/7/11876066/a-look-at-how-the-pens-are-using-kris-letang-to-shield-justin-schultz
How did the Pens shelter Justin Schultz? Did they shelter him by playing him the most minutes at 5v5 and giving him the least on the fly starts per 60?
No, they didn’t because that’s impossible.
Who played the most 5v5 minutes and had the least OTF starts/60? Kris Letang because he was their best defenseman and it wasn’t close.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20152016&thruseason=20152016&stype=3&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=PIT&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
How did they Shelter Justin Schultz then?
High OTF starts per sixth and limiting his minutes. Why? Because that’s literally the only way to shelter a player.
To your first point, the current year stats are available on puckiq right now. Not sure if you followed the link above that I used as a source, but I just double checked and the info is all there in the top row of CSV stats.
Parsing stats (to me) is an interesting pastime. A lot of nuances to uncover, interpret, and discern. It’s something I’m learning on the fly as a result of spending more time on this site that I reasonably ought to. So thank you to the collective.
What you’re talking about with coaching deployments is definitely a fascinating meta layer within the game of hockey analytic analysis. The game within the game of being a fan, if you will. To my knowledge those aren’t details that are widely available to the public. Perhaps there’s an opportunity there for those with the will and skill. As for Josi as a defender, well, I’ve long been more enamoured with Ekholm as I see him as a more prototypical rearguard. I do not conflate points for defensive acumen. If you’re on D you should be able to defend first: board battles, zone entries denials, zone exits by pass or carry, crease clearing, PK, etc. Points are gravy. Perhaps a deeper look will show Ekholm takes on more of the toughs allowing Josi room to wheel. I haven’t done that analysis, so cannot say, it’s just a thought that comes to mind. Certainly depends on coaches deployment versus specific opponents, slumps/injuries, etc.
Below you mention how Jultz would get shifted on for Letang after faceoffs, which I well remember. The first thing that comes to mind is, that was also the same player that took up more of the slack the following year when Letang was injured and not on the roster. Not sure if it was more of an improvement by committee, or if Jultz suddenly improved under duress. Also, that’s not a totally uncommon tactic by coaches, I seem to remember ANA and SJS doing the same to get their big guns out against us and VGK respectively the last few years in the playoffs. It’s about utilizing your players strengths to the opponents weaknesses, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing when done correctly.
How that all applies to Chychrun… in all honesty, I don’t know.
I just know I’m not sold on him as a 2LD yet. The injury concerns are very real and the ask is suspiciously high. Those are the red flags, the rest is just parsing the details trying to find a middle ground. I’d rather pay wholesale for a player than retail or get in a bidding war. Too much month left at the end of the money with this team to hop over dollars to save dimes.
Having just looked at NST and comparing JC with Ghost, I’d actually be more interested in Ghost by most numbers when considering potential acquisition cost (if he’s even available). But I still think there’s someone else out there who could be had for a more agreeable price and lower injury risk.
Not sure who, just a hunch.
On the Oiler dynasty teams Lowe took on most of the toughs, & his fellow LD Coffey saw a lot of middling opponents. Not that uncommon a strategy around the league, I don’t think.
Sometimes it is not about who they play against and but about who they play with. Coffey was much more often with Gretzky no matter who the opposition was unless holding a lead late, but the Oiler’s hold the lead strategy was to get a few more goals. Deployment strategy was different in those days though.
Klim Kostin had a hell of a game yesterday, until he didn’t. In the picture on both 3rd period goals against – didn’t get in the lane on the 3rd (although Nuge the main culprit not that one, of course) and was first forward back on the puck retrieval on the 4th but made a poor play (and Bouch didn’t help the recovery).
This is a teaching moment for Klim…… the coaches presumably show him film of how great he played for the most part but also the sequences where he needed to make a stronger play – continue to play him as much as he played last night but ensure he “learns” from those mistakes.
————-
Nuge is still fire offensively – he was all over the high dangers last night. Unfortunately, Nuge could have “won the game” last night by converting one of his two five alarm chances in the first 40 and, well, not giving Horvat free reign to score.
Tough one for Nugget – he knows it – he’ll be better on Tuesday.
The Oilers definitely can and should turn this season around. I mean they have the same record as last year’s team heading into the Christmas break. I look forward to Holland shaking up this roster in the new year, much like he had to do last year, with the firing of Tippett and the signing of Evander Kane, who is sorely missed about right now.
We won’t get a roster addition like Kane last year (no asset cost, minimal cap, huge positive impact)
For me, the fear isn’t that Holland will pay too much for Chychrun…
I think based on Holland’s recent track record, the real fear is that he’ll overpay for a half measure like Edmundson or Gavrikov.
but we will get a roster addition like Kane. We will get Evander Kane himself and at a similar time to when he came last season.
When is Kane returning? I haven’t heard any estimates.
Just last week Holland said they are projecting by mid-February
Kane coming back from his injury could parallel Kane being signed as a free agent last season.
Getting Campbell going could also be similar to “getting Smitty going” from last season.
But Holland would still need to trade for a Kulak … and fire the coach … to mirror the moves that led to last season’s turn around.
I doubt that’s going to happen, and I have serious doubts that the Oilers will be in playoffs this year.
One topic I was mulling over is Mckenzie’s list.
When is it a good strategy to reach in the first round?
Is it ever a good strategy to reach in the first round?
Is it a good strategy to reach when you have a top 10 pick?
Seider was a crazy pick ranked 16th and taken sixth.
The other example I think of is 2011 where Mark Scheifele was ranked 12th and taken 7th.
Now Bromberg was taken 8th after being ranked 15th leaving Zegras, Boldy, Canfield, Knight, and Newhook on the board.
Yakupov was the consensus #1 pick in 2012. Murray the scouts’ choice. I wanted Dumba.
BOS had three consecutive picks in 2015 at #13-15 and whiffed hard. The lone “success” was Gretz the Younger’s pick, in DeBrusk the Younger. Yet had they simply picked the next three drafted players, that franchise would have been set up beyond a decade. Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor, and Thomas Chabot. Woof. Not sure what the BobFather’s list said but Boeser and Konecny were first round picks who were also still available. None of those five players were unknown talents either.
So consensus can be tricky, but to your point, if you’re going to meander you’d better be right.
Boston in 2015 was the classic cautionary tale for sure.
The curious thing about the Broberg pick was that we all knew ahead of time. I’m not sure how that’s an advantage to the oilers to let that info out, but the Oilers do prioritize managing their fans in a weird way.
Kind of like the don’t fret about the Reinhart trade, we wouldn’t have picked Barzal anyway.
JEE and Carlo would have been exceptional additions to the team. Stylistically and on the depth chart.
I see Barzal as less of a fit. Other than an exceptional rookie season in his D+2, his production has been very Nuge like. At his AAV that’s no bueno for me.
What could’ve been … 2015 is the moment in time when everything fell apart. Sure we drafted McDavid, but then got nothing else from that draft other than a couple of 3rd pairing defensemen. They were reported to be interested in Eriksson Ek, and needed a RHD … its not a stretch to think that Carlo gets drafted with the second round pick that they threw away in that awful Reinhart deal. Eriksson Ek and Carlo would have made a massive difference on the defensive metrics for this club.
Coupled with picking Jesse, instead of their reported target of Sergachev, the next season, and passing on Debrincat, who was magic with McDavid in junior in favour of the local boy Benson … this is where the glory was lost.
Everyone focused in on the Hall trade, but Larsson would be a perfect fit for this team today, and would have a more important role on this year’s team than Hall would.
Picking off the McKenzie is no sure thing either … go back and look at the Canuck’s recent drafts … for the most part, their scouts went with the consensus McKenzie picks in the first rounds, and that yielded the likes of Virtanen (they could have had Nylander), Juolevi (they could’ve had Sergachev), and Podkolzin (when they could’ve had Caufield or Boldy).
Picking Broberg was the correct move, in that they needed to draft and develop a LHD, given Klefbom’s shoulder troubles. Unfortunately, Klef’s career ended before Broberg could be fully developed. And so we wait for Broberg to get enough games under his belt and the game to slow down for him at the NHL level.
There’s always going to be whammies on the McKenzie list. Pulling a Jarmo to avoid a whammy is a far different thing than reaching.
The Canucks would have taken Tkachuk instead of Juolevi, Nick Ritchie instead of Virtanen, and Zegras instead of Podkolzin.
Look, we’re damn lucky the Canucks didn’t follow Mckenzie’s list.
lol. Imagine if the Nucks had Tkachuk, Zegras, and Ritchie.
Us? We’d have Zegras and Guhle.
Thing about McKenzie’s list is it’s always so much easier for us folk to look back and offer an I told you so when it comes to their favourite hobby horse. I’m as guilty of this as the next guy (I would have taken Seguin/Landeskog/Dumba if I were in charge, lol. To be fair, my record afterwards wasn’t so hot.)
But the list is just an amalgamation of scouting consensus. If it were so simple, why would NHL teams even have scouting departments? Why not follow the list? At a certain point you have to employ a GM to build an organization according to a philosophy, furnish him with resources, then trust him to do his job successfully.
Otherwise you’d probably do well enough drafting by potato.
On the first GA. McDavid let the Canuck who was in the corner with him beat him to the puck or made no attempt to be in a position to check that Canuck when the puck came off the wall from Puljujarvi’s failed attempt to get it out.
Hyman was sucking his thumb at the blueline instead of marking Miller.
McDavid and Hyman literally just watched the play unfold instead of do anything. Zero effort on defense.
Thats how I see it. No interest in defending. Rarely below the puck
Hyman shouldn’t have been “below the puck” – he was in his position near the point d-man. He was slow identifying the puck coming to Miller and maybe could have disrupted the shot but this analysis buries the lead – it was a non scoring chance, a grade C, that Skinner essentially scored on himself.
Miller is a legit NHL goalscorer with a good shot. It is not a random median player taking that shot. A random median player is not a good goalscorer.
I don’t care who was taking that shot – it was a non-scoring chance and Skinner created the goal – end stop.
To me what underlies this is the top player’s thinking (based on observed play) that they should be doing heroic things every shift
A lot of cheating and not playing the system which is always based on executing basic skills and assignments
If you had a team full of McDavids and Draisaitls it might work. But there’s a cap and no team can be that
The ‘normal’ players need to have a lot of repetitions executing the plan to get better at it. They can’t just flip a switch and smarten up
If the leaders on the team won’t commit to team play to allow everyone to get to a high level of making correct reads and passes so they can breakout consistently, work the neutral zone well both ways, based on having puck support and someone to pass to in a good position or having back pressure support, this will continue as it always has, for years
All Cup teams go through this. The teams that should seemingly get to a Cup and don’t either don’t have enough talent (not the Oiler’s problem), are unlucky and have a juggernaut team that’s too good (also not currently a problem like the teams that faced the 80’s Oilers or 70’s Habs or Islanders), or have leaders that won’t commit to the unfun in the moment parts of the game
Connor may get away with it as he is almost always a force on the ice, if Holland found him his Kurri, and the coaches would deploy that way
Everyone else has to play proper high end solid hockey, all the time
Exactly. A good hockey team playing sound fundamental hockey will make the playoffs. Star players making heroic plays provide the separation in the playoffs. Hero plays from star players during the regular season should not be necessary. What is necessary from star players during the regular season is making sure the entire team is playing sound fundamental hockey.
Like Woodguy’s thesis that contending teams have all lines at 50% goal share or higher.
As long as the heroics are above good fundamental play – game breaking plays that stars can do more than normal players
Heck Mike Reilly, Boston LD in the minors would also upgrade us. Frick. Two of Boston’s players in the minors would fill two needs we have. Cost of acquisition would be negligible but it’s the $6.1 cap hit that would be issue.
Is Craig Smith, waivers from Boston a week ago, an upgrade for us if we can make money work? His fancy stats are always excellent , his scoring has dropped in his 30s but he is a 15-20 goal scoring winger with enough size and fancy stats always above 50% the last 8 years.
Is he an upgrade? I’d say yes right now he’d be our top RW. Or at least could easily be in top 6. Unless he’s fallen right off the cliff. Anyone have an idea of our cap space if we acquired him?
No. Craig Smith is a streaky scorer, one trick pony at this point in his career. No history of defending.
Skinner looks tired. Young goalies take time to adjust to that many games. I hope post Christmas we run the goalies equally, at worst 60/40. We need Campbell to be solid and play well (he has been poor but we can outscore enough to let him work out of it) and Skinner can’t be overworked or the season is sunk.
And Draisatl looks hurt or tired. Not sure which. But he has been off the last 5 or 6 games, pts or not.
This break is needed. And now onto what is our biggest need. I know we are focused on LD. But is it another two way winger? So they can balance the top 9? Cause we right now have no one that can score other then the top 4. And Draisatl and McDavid need a responsible own zone winger if they don’t have Nuge on their line. And Kane is still months away.
Is there a 25 goal two way winger out there right now available? Would he cost less then the 1st plus prospects for the D not from Arizona? And much more for him.
I think the player they need for that spot is Evander Kane, no?
One (likely) available player that comes to mind is Monohan – I know he’s a C but I’m sure he can play win – he’s not great defensively but I am confidant he could score goals in the top 6 on this team.
Well I had nothing to do this morning, so I rewatched the game. Partly cause I couldn’t believe it happened, and partly to isolate on Ethan Bear, so I could see what a bad defenseman he has become. 🤔🙄
The first goal was totally on Skinner, no question. The rest were due to bad penalties, soft coverages and lost battles. Again.
I am becoming convinced that this is either a coaching/systems issue or a player buy in issue. Maybe a little of both.
We knew going in that the defense was a question mark, but they have been worse than expected. Bouchard and Broberg have not taken the next step. They have either been poor or MIA. The veterans have all regressed, with the exception of Barrie. And if Barrie is your best dman, your team is in trouble.
However, this is the most talented group of forwards the Oilers have employed since the 80’s and I don’t believe Woodcrofts deployment is taking full advantage of this. He keeps shoving bottom 6 players (JP, Foegele) with McDavid and Draisaitl and then is surprised when things don’t click. Yes, these players do some nice things, but the play dies on their stick too many times and they struggle to finish scoring chances.
On a side note, I watched everyone of Bears shifts. Based on his play last night, he would move to the front of the line at RD for the Oilers. And before I get shouted down, I encourage you to watch for yourself. Watch how quickly he marks his man and closes on him in the dzone. Watch how many quick, simple plays he makes, TO THE OPEN MAN. Now compare that to Bouchard, or Barrie, or even Ceci.
It was just 1 game, but his attention to detail, his sense of urgency, and his willingness to engage in, and win, puck battles surpassed anyone on the Oilers blueline last night.
He was obviously playing with a high level of motivation, not only playing against his former team but also coming off a healthy scratch against the Kraken on Thursday night. I will concede that he would be as good as Bouchard at the moment but Boosh has higher potential.
As good as Bouchard right now?
Bouchard isn’t even in the same area code as Bear right now.
Watch Bouchard “battle” Horvat for the puck on the 4th goal, and then tell me he’s as good as Bear right now.
I’ve watched pretty much every game Bear has played.
Generally very solid but does get outmuscled in front of the net from time to time.
His healthy scratch last game wasn’t really earned and was much criticized by the local media.
Boudreau has been making some weird lineup moves (Stillman is awful) in an effort to save his job and even sat Kuzmenko for a game despite very stellar play all season.
As you stated, this is a one game sample. Yes, Bouchard was soft on the 4th Vancouver goal. He has had several games where he has made defensive blunders and soft coverage. Other games he has looked amazing (Rangers game, recent win over the Wild as as couple of examples). My point being that you need to look at a larger sample of games to better evaluate players. If the plan is to move Ceci to 2RD, and Barrie (or Bouchard) to 3RD, then you need a player for 1RD. Bear isn’t that guy, imo. If the plan is to run Ceci, Bouchard, Bear or Ceci, Barrie, Bear, I don’t believe either of those options are upgrades over a longer period of time.
My plan would have been to keep Bear and not sign Barrie.
I don’t think our defense would be any worse than it is right now, and we would have almost 5 million more (Barrie + Foegele – Bear) in cap space. That would allow for a significant upgrade on the back end.
For instance, you could trade for Chychrun right now, without having Arizona retain or accept a salary dump. Both of these things would lower the acquisition cost.
Yep. Bear would be the #1RD on the OIlers. He was before he was traded after Larsson fled.
Who are these “talented top 6 forwards” that “bottom 6” WF and JP are playing instead of?
Kostin, McLeod, maaayyybe Holloway. Hard to tell with Holloway, he’d need a longer audition than he’s had so far.
A simple fix would be to swith Kostin and JP for a few games. I also think the coach needs to consider moving one of Nuge or McLeod into the top 6 after the New Year. Is it more important to have the best top 6 possible, or a really good 4C? There’s a good philosophical question for everyone.
I would say that if the 4C is only getting 8 to 10 minutes a game, then it’s more important to load up the top 6.
So, your contention is that Kostin, McLeod and Holloway are top 6 forwards. Not sure that holds much weight
I’m not sure I follow. Fans should not be upset with the state of the team because the team isn’t good enough? Isn’t this exactly why fans should be upset? It would be different if a McDavid or stud goalie was out of action, but this is not the case.
Injuries don’t excuse inconsistent efforts, starting slowly, poor penalty killing, poor puck management, giving up too much defensive gap, lack of defensive awareness from forwards and defensemen. It’s player-specific lack of focus and/or execution.
Kane out of action, Campbell poor, Nurse and Bouchard making mistakes on the double. I think it’s reasonable to suggest most of those issues will regress.
Perhaps McDavid and Draisaitl shouldn’t be soloing, give them some linemates!
RNH and Hymen aren’t enough quality?
Kane got hurt.
Captured the Oilers state of affairs well LT.
35 games. They are what they are. The issues remain the same and were predicted preaseason other than the goaltending. That was supposed to be better.
With this group of forwards minimal interest in defending the current D group just won’t cut it and the Goalers haven’t been able to stop the bleeding.
Holland must feel like Clark Griswold – big plans to put in a pool and gets a jelly of the month club membership.
McDavid and Draisaitl were predicted to lose the 5v5 goal share? I don’t recall that. The penalty killing was predicted to be near the bottom of the league? I don’t recall that either.
Your talking about the result of Fs that are below average defensively and insufficient D to cover for this F group.
PK also related to D and F that are below average at defending.
The Gs haven’t been able to cover for these issues
LT, you should maybe say what Savard said.
I thought I’d save it so you could put it on your blog.
???
I thought maybe you just forgot. If you don’t want to, that’s okay too. Hope you’re hanging in there this holiday season.
I actually described what he said in the sentences that followed. They were hurt, aging and had a season long malaise. Sorry me response was off, thought I was being clever lol.
So sorry, I did not get that at all.
You said, “Savard once described…,” and I’m like “oh man, that’s so cool, what did he say?” I was expecting a quote. My apologies in return.
I laughed.
Which Savard? And what did he say?
Serge Savard, the first 2 words in LT’s post.
Thanks Bruce. You are equally great at math and reading 🙂
And here I was looking for the meaning in a Led Zeppelin song.
How many nights has our goalie outplayed the opposition goalie this year? In the last 10 games? Skinner has been good this year but when we outplay Vancouver and Anaheim and lose twice in one week to the third string goalie I think that’s part of the problem. Sure team defence and glaring mistakes are an issue but HD chances last night at 5×5 were 11-5 for the Oilers. You have to be able to win against a goalie like Delia when those are the numbers. Of course if they saw off on special teams last night, at min they get a point as well.
Edit: And for the record I do think our tending has it in them to be better and go on some kind of a run, but they need to do it sooner than later.
I’m sort of glad the goalies aren’t hiding the poor play of the team overall
It forces them to deal with their issues and it will pay dividends later when it counts more
As long as they make the dance that is
”shot mentality” everybody drink.
”puck heading in a good direction” everybody drink.
We need to hear and read “a goal scorers goal” more often.
It was indeed a regrettable goal by Skinner but it was also a bad goal and an unacceptable goal that changed the game.
100%, absolutely, the Oilers were not good enough in the last 40, and that is also unacceptable, but that goal changed the game. The Oilers were fire before then and that goal have the opposition belief (as Rob Brown would say) and energy.
3 day break and it’s now time. It’s Jack Campbell time. Even when Stu was hot we all said we’d need Campbell to run with the net at some point. It’s time and it’s starts in Calgary on Tuesday. Both goalies will need to play but it’s time for Jack to earn 65% starts.
Let’s Go!
I thought Vancouver started to take over in the back half of the first period, they brought the forecheck & the Oilers couldn’t cope; when they did manage to gain possession all they could do was punt it out to the neutral zone & prepare for the next wave. Then came the brilliant goal in the dying seconds to give EDM the 2-0 lead they deserved earlier. Seemed like a good situation, but as with the STL game the 2-goal lead shrank back to 1 within 60 seconds of playing time with some uber soft defending & netminding. The Oil never really got it together thereafter despite having a major rest advantage on a (theoretically) inferior opponent playing their #3 netminder. Beyond disappointing showing for the home faithful.
Agree with this. Oilers were doing a very poor job of tracking Vancouver all night in the defensive zone. We seem to struggle with the concept of “keeping your head on a swivel” and it’s not just the defensemen, but the forwards. They puck stare and guys come open for Grade A looks.
The other things that’s been scouted against this team is that the opponents look for stretch passes and you can count on a couple going against us every night. It’s very poor awareness that they display night in and night out.
I don’t disagree at all Bruce but that 2nd goal, against the current flow of play, with seconds left in the period should have been a back-breaker for the Canucks – they had every reason to pack it in for the break after the and they very well may have but, as you mentioned on the pod, the Oilers gave it right back (after the intermission) and it was Skinner who did so. I’m confidant it changed the game (although we can never really know).
This isn’t making an excuse for the team overall, they weren’t good enough – they should have been able to impose their will on the Nucks even after they were given that energy on the gift and they didn’t.
Skinner”s last 3 starts:
.889
.765
.906
Not good enough
.862 last night by my math.
you are correct. I grabbed the numbers too quick from NHL.com. Doing so paints a worse picture for his recent stretch, unfortunately.
Skinner’s last 4 starts:
.862
.889
.765
.906
There was no goal by Skinner. The line drive by Miller that turned into a flyball off Skinner and dropped for a home run into the net was called a fluke by Miller. I’ll take that over your drama.
Skinner is not having a good stretch
Fluke goals for the Canucks.
Bad goal by Skinner.
I didn’t create that drama, the players did.
Now probable to a degree that the season is going to go on to be lost. The beam of light is the overall strength and skill of the current team.
The definition changes from fan to fan miss playoffs for some earlier than 3rd round exit for another fan.