Game 38 2022-23: Jets at Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers came out flying against the Seattle Kraken on Friday night, and put the game on ice early. It was a fun game for fans, no real concern about the outcome. Score effects impact these games, so the 38 shots by the Kraken were scored aided. It’s also true there was some loose coverage and unnecessary risk by the team, something that could bite the team as soon as tonight. Oilers need to tighten up like Archie Bell and the Drells, and right soon!

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen pursue final defence spot
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
• Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, quality prospects
• DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard’s difficult season disguises elite talent
• New DNB: Why the Oilers should, but probably won’t, acquire Jakob Chychrun
• Lowetide: What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
• Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer make the NHL leap next season? 
• New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
• DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
• Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
• DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
• Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
• DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
• Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

• On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
• On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-1-1)
• On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
• At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
• December actual result: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 20-15-2, 42 points in 37 games

October was a strong month, November was a ‘survival is success’ month and December was supposed to allow the Oilers to get several games over .500, or at least Bettman 500. As it turns out, this late spurt could land Edmonton within a hair of my predicted outcome. Can the Oilers win tonight? Connor McDavid played 16 minutes all-in, so there should be some extreme sports in the tank for the best hockey player on the planet.

SUMMARY

• Zach Hyman scored twice and had an assist. Two shots, two HDSC and a giveaway. Hyman’s ability to post offense (17-23-40 in 36 games) is impressive and he contests so many pucks the mind boggles. Played just 14:48, that could be important in the game tonight.
• Connor McDavid went supernova again, going 1-4-5 on the night with three shots, two HDSC, 3 TK and a giveaway. He rocked the casbah with a brilliant back check and interruption of a primo scoring chance (Burakovsky) late when the game was no longer in danger. A giant walks among us.
• Jesse Puljujarvi scored, he now has two goals in his most recent five games. He had five shots, one HDSC, a takeaway, an effective hit and blocked a shot. JP is playing well in recent weeks, Edmonton needs him to score while Draisaitl is out.
• Mattias Janmark had an assist, shot on goal one HDSC and played well at evens and on the PK. I know many readers and commenters would prefer a younger man getting his icetime, but Janmark is a veteran who makes fewer mistakes. The kids are fine but Janmark serves a role for now.
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had four assists, NO shots, three takeaways and won seven of fifteen in the faceoff circle. A career year at 29 is not a normal progression, but the Nuge is more involved this season. I’ve mentioned this before, but Dave Keon said after his career was over that later on (about 1970), he spent so much time on the defensive side he neglected his offense. I think the Nuge has done that in previous seasons, but not this year. He made some gorgeous passes last night. Now at 1.85 points-60 five-on-five for the season.
• Klim Kostin scored twice and was a physical force all night long. He had two goals, four shots, two HDSC, three penalties, two penalties drawn, takeaway and a couple of hits. I’ve said before he is taking someone’s job, I think we can move that phrase to past tense. He took it. Just waiting for the other shoe to drop. His goals included a nice deke and a great tip. Wonderful trade.
• Warren Foegele had one shot, one HDSC and a couple of hits. He had his work boots on, and nothing cashed but his overall possession numbers five-on-five (59 percent Corsi, 4-0 HDSC while he was on the ice) were rock solid. A third line doesn’t necessarily score every night but has to be productive. Foegele contributed last night.
• Ryan McLeod had one shot, one takeaway but won just five of 12 in the dot. Played just shy of 15 minutes (McDavid didn’t play his usual minutes) and the five-on-five possession numbers (50 percent shot share) were solid. I know some of the comments surround his lack of offense since returning from injury, but he’s played just three games since his return. Give him time.
• Kailer Yamamoto drew an early penalty by going to front of the net with the puck, the guy has no fear at all. Had an assist, a shot, two HDSC, drew a penalty, had a takeaway, blocked a shot. Now at 1.52 points-60 five-on-fivee for the season.
• Dylan Holloway got into a fight, tiring of the hooks, slashes and cross checks. Good for him, he also drew a penalty, had a takeaway and was a general nuisance for the Kraken. He played 12:42, that’s closer to the range you want to see.
• James Hamblin had a shot on goal (it was a quick chance), won three of four faceoffs, took a couple of hits. He has zero points through his first 10 NHL games, but he’s getting closer. No J-F Jacques career start for this man.
• Derek Ryan had one good chance, was solid in the dot and won the shot share five-on-five. He was No. 7 among forwards in PK minutes, that’s a concern for his future with the team. He and Shore are getting squeezed out by younger players like Yamamoto, McLeod and Foegele.

• Darnell Nurse had his best game of the season. Offensively, he went 1-1-2 with three shots and one HDSC (I thought there were two). Nurse was 4-0 goals at five-on-five, so for the season he is 33-32, 51 percent. He played 23:40, effective on PK as well. On pace for 44 points this season, his even-strength goal differential (44-32) leads the team’s regular defensemen.
• Cody Ceci had three shots, GV and TK, blocked a couple of shots. He was in good position and moved the puck quickly and effectively. Ceci’s splits a year ago in five-on-five goal share (18-26, 41 percent through end of December 2021, then 38-36 through the end of the season) showed great improvement. He’s at 25-24 as of last night, I think the top pairing has been good despite some single events this season.
• Brett Kulak blocked four shots, had a shot on goal, and some hits. He made a fantastic play early in the game, thwarting a 10-bell chance without taking a penalty. This pairing did get caved in possession on a bend not break evening. Kulak is 24-23 goals at five-on-five this season.
• Tyson Barrie had two shots on goal, a couple of takeaways and two blocked shots. He is 27-22 (55 percent) at five-on-five goal differential and is playing the most complete game I can recall. Puck IQ has him second-pairing versus elites but delivering good possession numbers in the metric.
• Markus Niemelainen is really making progress now, this development is encouraging. He had some shots (from range), made some nice passes, blocked a couple of shots and got in lanes all night. Music! A young defenseman who arrives as an NHL player is reason to rejoice.
• Evan Bouchard turned over a puck in the seconds before Seattle’s first goal, but is making safe plays more often. He is such a talent, Oilers can’t entertain the idea of moving him. They are a talented team, but not so talented they can afford to bleed this kind of quality.

• Stuart Skinner was brilliant, stopping 36 of 38, several difficult shots included. Has a .932 SP at five-on-five, that ranks No. 5 among qualified goaltenders. In 14 of 22 starts (64 percent) he has delivered quality. If you believe in building up the middle, and I do, this guy is manna from heaven.

BAKERSFIELD

The Condors lost last night, Calgary Wranglers have more talent so the result was predictable. I think the Condors could have won a result if Justin Bailey could put the puck in the ocean, but he couldn’t do it last night. In fairness, the ocean is 138 miles away from Bakersfield. Ryan Fanti played well in net, Vincent Desharnais is such a good player at this level, and I was impressed with the work ethic. Wrote about the Condors season, and there are deployment concerns, but the Oilers have recalled a bushel and a peck from the AHL team so let’s review.