There’s no denying the math. The Seattle Kraken have inserted themselves into the playoff race, and there are now five Pacific teams vying for three or four playoff spots. The Vegas Golden Knights look gone baby gone, and the Los Angeles Kings, Calgary Flames plus the Kraken are teams the Oilers must separate from over the final 44 games. It all starts tonight.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Klim Kostin’s sudden impact, injury and immediate future
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen pursue final defence spot
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
- DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard’s difficult season disguises elite talent
- New DNB: Why the Oilers should, but probably won’t, acquire Jakob Chychrun
- New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
- DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
- Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- January actual result: 0-0-0, 0 points in 0 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 20-16-2, 42 points in 38 games
If the Oilers deliver on my prediction for the month of January, the team’s record would be 27-19-4, 58 points in 50 games. That projects as 95 points and a playoff spot. The games against the Kraken are key. The way is clear.
LIKELY LINEUP
- Hyman (2.33)-McDavid (2.46)-Puljujarvi (1.04)
- Foegele (1.15)-Draisaitl (2.13)-Yamamoto (1.48)
- Janmark (1.33)-Nuge (1.80)-Kostin (2.20)
- Holloway (0.87)-McLeod (1.24)-Ryan (1.63)
- Nurse (50.8)-Ceci (51.0)
- Kulak (50)-Barrie (54.0)
- Broberg (40)-Bouchard (39)
- Skinner (.932)
This is five-on-five points-60 (forwards), five-on-five goal share (defense) and five-on-five save percentage (goalie). You’d love to have Evander Kane back, but this team can win some hockey games. The question remains the deadline and what will be sacrificed. Broberg could do Holland a solid by working out.
DISASTERS! ALL OF THEM!
One of the casualties of the decade of darkness? Clarity. Nuance also took a powder. Example: EVERY loss is a disaster. There was a time when the post-game comments online after the loss to the Winnipeg Jets would have been marbled with positives. Now? After the Jets game, I wrote “the fancies danced New Year’s Eve but the Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck was just too much for Edmonton.” I don’t recall seeing anything more positive than that line, and several miles of “they’re awful” which simply isn’t true.
Have we lost the ability to see shades? Is everything black and white? For reference, the Canucks game was extremely disappointing. That’s a game where an organization, including players, coaches and management, have to figure out why they can’t win a game like that one.
HOLLAND’S TRADES TO COME
We’ve mulled just about every available defensemen and then some over the holidays. Gavrikov, McCabe, Edmundson, Karlsson, Klingberg, Crosby, Still, Nash and Young. One area we haven’t discussed is an old favourite for Holland: Former players.
- LW Andreas Athanasiou, Chicago. The cap hit ($3 million) is a fit for a Jesse Puljujarvi trade but AA isn’t having a strong season and the Oilers LW depth and quality is strong once Evander Kane returns.
- RD Nick Jensen, Washington. He’s having a great season (Puck IQ telling us he’s thriving while playing big minutes versus elites) and comes with just a $2.5 million cap hit while being UFA this summer. He would be ideal, save for the RH depth chart being full. I’d trade for him anyway. Doesn’t matter the Caps are winning again.
- RW Givani Smith, Florida Panthers. Big, rugged winger recently dealt by the DRW, he could fill the role some believe necessary for a truculent depth forward.
- LC Valtteri Filppula, Geneve Servette (Swiss). He’s still hammering the Swiss league. I’m just saying. Oilers signed Rem Murray once upon a time….
- LD Dmitri Kulikov, Anaheim. He has played against top competition this season for the Ducks, unsuccessfully. He isn’t a fabulous fit but might be on the radar.
- LC Jujhar Khaira, Chicago. He’s tough as nails, is known to the team and can kill penalties.
- LD Kris Russell. Hey, you never know.
- Martin Frk, St. Louis. The man has a shot that can cut through steel.
There is a 9 day break at the end of Jan, beginning of Feb!!
How many games has this team won this year without scoring a power play and without giving up one?
EW doesn’t like Klingberg.
3-year is 22/81/1
1-year is 3/58/2
Jon Cooper had years to get his team in order
Woody doesn’t have them
Maybe a yelly break works longer term
The leaders in ice aren’t leading well to me
Woody has to get Connor Leo and Nurse buying in for anything to work
The Evolving Wild Player card for Patrick Kane has some interesting results.
Overall, their current 1-year model rates him at the 1st percentile [!] 4rth for offense and 1st percentile for defense. 🙁
That’s probably a lot to do with being on a terrible team with no help available.
Or age is starting to catch up with him and he no longer can push the river the way he used to.
Had to review a research manuscript tonight that we’re submitting soon, so I was going to watch the game on replay.
Disappointed with the loss. Think I’ll take a pass on watching this team piss away another two points, to a second year expansion team.
Looks like the Oilers are taking a pass at the playoffs in favour of hitting the golf course early. Incredible accomplishment to be sitting outside of the playoffs despite the season McDavid is having, along with the contributions of Leon, Nuge and Hyman.
Everything else on this roster is rotting away right now. When 80% of the roster is under performing you can’t fix the roster with a trade.
You can’t trade this year’s first rounder when you are currently a lottery team.
So it’s time for another coaching change … this season is playing out just like last year, and it was obvious to everyone that Tippett had to be put out of his misery. If Woodcroft misses the playoffs, he’s done anyways, so they should do it now and try to salvage this season.
This season reminds me a lot of the 2017-18 season following the promising playoff run. As Bruce outlined in his CoH article recently, it is the 24 (except for Skinner) and unders who are at the core of the inconsistency problem for this team. These value contracts (and Jack Campbell) are not paying off and as a results the top end players have to carry the team, in the few games where depth players are contributing, this team is seeing success.
One year of pain for future gain? He is in a very poor position with almost all of the valuable youth under-performing. I can’t see Holland getting much done in-season to change this roster and with this draft being so full of potential and lack of cap space, what can he actually do?
Maybe if he moves Barrie and Campbell +, could he free up space, but I don’t have much faith in his ability to make impactful moves. If they don’t have a winning month, this team most likely will miss the playoffs, so what would the point be in selling off the future?
Lack of leadership driving commitment to team defence. Until that changes and is sustainable, this team will struggle with consistency and success.
D. Ryan spoke the truth.
It’s up to the coach now to reign the wild horses in
Sather had to do that. Did he have any idea of what he was doing?
I doubt it. He just went with what he knew it took to win, and what he felt was best for his team’s success
I feel this team has been in freefall for years
Connor drives more success. But there is no team mojo. No mean, loving boss, just catering to whatever is required from above or what duty is felt to the rich superstars, reference, deference
No easy task
That was some chaos in a really important divisional game
Glen Sather had the best 5-6 players in the league all on his team. Then he had an incredible supporting cast. Please don’t compare a Ferrari to a tricycle.
Calgary built a damn fine team trying to beat us as well as Philly who had 2 of their top 4 players scratched because of injury by the time they played us in the final.
The Oilers were light years better than those teams….those teams were competitive because they were allowed to clutch and grab. 5 cups would have been at least 8 had money not gotten in the way.
Woodcroft is sort of the Ark of the Covenant. The first few seconds look pretty good after it is opened, but then it is #miniTMC on the way to #TheFullDementor
A real bummer.
DON’T LOOK AT IT MARION
I’ll keep butchering my recollection of Woodguy’s old theory until he chimes in.
Something about needing 4 actual NHL top four defensemen to make the playoffs.
Yes.
Also, forwards need to backtrack and stop making dismal passes at the offensive blueline.
Holloway gets all these penalties because he doesn’t get enough ice time. The excess energy doesn’t get dissipated by normal game fatigue.
Never stop with your eccentric theories!
Lmao. Is this for real?
Interesting take . But he did get more toi then usual.
godot10 never lets facts get in the way of a good theory!
Well Holloway had more TOI then Kostin
Well, duh – everyone know that, its obvious and common knowledge…..
Agreed, more ice time would help Holloway with the flow of the game.
I agree he’s trying to do to much in the shit minutes he’s receiving. The handling of Holloway makes me think Woody’s not plugged into the team properly.
If the Oilers miss the playoffs, does Drai get traded for a dman?
No
But should he?
No
Personally, I would at least consider it.
I think Rondo mentioned a Dahlin for Drai trade.
There is no way Buffalo makes the trade, but I think the Oilers should/would.
Buffalo doesn’t need Draisaitl. And it is unlikely he would re-sign there.
Didn’t we learn anything from the past? You don’t trade from the top of the deck. You don’t trade a King for a Jack (or in Chiarelli’s case, a Jack for an 8). They should be able to upgrade the defense for less than Leon MF Draisatl.
Honestly, unless Chychrun’s knees are held together by duct tape, I don’t know how a GM in our window doesn’t make that trade.
No.
If you trade Draisaitl you are also trading by default McDavid. He would not be happy with that. If you miss the playoffs it’s time to bring in Barry Trotz and whoever doesn’t like it, you ship out. It’s time players on this team own up to this embarrassment.
Nomomoto…
5 straight at home.
Yes, Campbell starts on Thursday.
Good news, Jack Campbell save pct this game is 1000.
Ya, that’s a bad loss….
Too early to pull the goalie. Come on !!
Two very odd games against the Nucks and now Kracken.
In complete control, go into turtle mode and get worked for about ten minutes and that’s the game.
Tonight is a comedy of very preventable errors, shit they teach you when you’re growing through a pair of skates a year.
The Rage will come, but I remain perplexed instead of Ragey.
A coaches time is coming to an end me thinks.
Also perplexed. This team is cursed.
Mmmm not cursed.
They aren’t committing to something that’s being sold to them.
I cannot see them making yet another coaching change but…
I didn’t say which coach
Time for a blockbuster trade .
I would argue that it’s not turtle mode, it’s utter carelessness and lack of attention to the details of defending in your zone. Coach can yell til the cow comes home but at some point, either you get it or you don’t and as a group, this team is not getting it.
It could happen down the road, it’s not happening this year with this group.
The same guys got it fine last year. They got it against Dallas, they had it against Seattle last week.
It’s there and that’s why I’m not that worried.
But it’s a fragile time right now. It doesn’t help that lapses seem to turn into GAs at a very high rate.
One thing and I’m not piling on. Skinner gives up terrible horrible godawful rebounds every game. He needs to clean that up.
Agree with you that it’s fragile out there right now. And as our host has said many times, young d-men will break your heart because their growth is not linear.
But there is something missing from last year, and it’s the thing that the leaders on the ice said after going out 4 straight to Winnipeg. That vet leader on defense. The intangible. It’s not there and it’s killing this team right now.
If you are willing to run the risk of losing the season, you do nothing.
Vet Dman who can actually play would be nice yup. Cost is key.
I don’t think it’s as dire. I can even twist a thought in my head that getting all these guys back from injury has fumbled things a bit. Adding into that young guys playing, hurt, then playing. Big reason why the last few have been so volatile.
The repeat failures in face off coverage no matter which lines or pairings is what makes me think there’s a coaching issue somewhere. Everyone including coaches needs to be rowing in the same direction.
Getting Kane back and hopefully keeping Broberg in the lineup should help. Really hoping Soup can have a good game Thursday. Would be very nice to get into a regular rotation with Stu.
All solvable, nothing existential.
The issue has been there for a while (faceoff coverage) so it could also be that the coach needs to change tactics to get the message across. When MacT was coach, he’d pull out a bag skate to get the teams attention. Early in the season, Woody ripped the paint off the walls (vs. Pittsburgh). It’s a tactic you can only use so often before it wears off.
But the lack of attention to detail has been a pattern all season and changing coaches isn’t an answer, so you either change how you deliver the message or change some personnel before it’s too late to save the season.
4 goals on 20 shots. The goalie carries some blame.
He was not good in the 2nd period, that’s for sure.
Bouchard’s entire sequence on the last shift was not inspiring.
Probably 15 shot attempts this game and mostly shin pads and plexi glass
8 shot attempts. 4 on net.
Plucked off the line by Tyson Barrie.
So frustrating watching this team right now. Not playing as a team at all.
They are out of sync. Nothings is working offensively.
This is just ridiculous watching a gassed 97 and 29 trying* to do it all by themselves.
That’s on the coach.
It’s a message to the GM to not sit and piss the season away waiting for Evander Kane to come back and magically turn this around. That’s not going to fix the defense.
Couldn’t he just walk down the hall and talk to the GM?
The coach has been pissing away the season since the shitty training camp he ran.
bingo!
To be fair, I’ve yet to see a “message” from a coach that any GM has ever actually acted on.
I think they a smart enough to draw their own conclusions.
Except for Chiarelli,
It’s nice to respect players
But they’ve been through a lotta coaches
For me Kulak and one of Barrie or Bouch have to go for puck able defensive D in that can skate. Bouch would be a mistake
Maybe that isn’t possible this season. If that is true, Holland has to move upstairs, because he did his season roster and this is the result
There is no balance between left and right D. This is the issue. What should the coaches do?
Ceci is above where he should be
Barrie and Bouch are the same player. Both 3rd pair 5v5 ideally
Nurse isn’t a ‘heady’ 1st pairing D. He’s the only physical D. He’s the only 1st pairing D
They need a partner for Nurse
They need a partner for the skill RD 2nd pair
They need a capable vet tough RD for the rookie LD to teach them the ropes
Same as season end
How much time to produce for a vet GM? Isn’t he supposed to know what to do?
And deal with the cap?
Play like a sack of lard for Bedard!
This team in its current state is in real danger of missing the playoffs.
They need to upgrade one or two defensemen if they hope to contend.
Each one of them except Nurse is too high in the batting order.
Yep. They need to be bumped down for at least this season. I would start with a left defenseman. Kulak/Broberg/Nemo can be 3LD. The right side could be adjusted as necessary by the trade deadline if things haven’t improved by then.
And the commitment to the back track and supporting the D that they left behind in the spring.
There have been many games where the forwards seemingly have not been committed to a defensive mindset. Tonight wasn’t one of those. Mistakes by Kulak and Bouchard mostly.
Nice kill
They’ve got 9 minutes to pull this one out of the fire
Being a fan of the Edmonton Oilers is soul crushing.
Very immature team. Not worth the aggravation. Until they make a trade for someone who’s going to come in and scare the s%*& out of the defense for making careless plays, nothing is going to change.
Indeed.
I have stopped watching the Oilers. My new hobby is hitting my thumb with a hammer repeatedly. Much more enjoyable!
Hyman with a play no play on that goal called back.
A really stupid and careless stick by Holloway.
Weird weird plays.
Only a portion of missed offside calls end up in the net so it seems like the linesmen miss these calls on the regular. You rarely see bad offside calls analyzed. Do these linesmen have incentives to get it right? There’s always that net there to catch them…
There are a tonne of type 2 errors and it seems like not a lot of type 1.
Oh great . Bloody.
It seems as though all of the D save for Broberg have been awful at getting pucks through to the net.
It would behoove the Oilers to kill of this penalty and then score a goal.
Good on Bro there. Got it through
So obvious
That Drai set up
Those offsides are so irritating. Do the linesmen get points counted against them for missing calls?
I think that’s coming back.
That’s really close – I think it was off-side.
Either way, even if its called back – Oilers will score on the PP anyways.
or not….
Off side.
Woof. This will not help the catastrophizing in Oil country.
What a beautiful goal…..
Hope it wasn’t offside.
Hyman/McDavid/Puljuarvi were fairly dominant through two – don’t see the need to load up early but, oh well.
If the Kraken can score 4 unanswered goals so can the Oilers.
Reid Wilkins called that period “reprehensible” – Rob Brown said “harsh, but fair”.
I don’t disagree.
Be better in the third and win the game.
Bouchard needs a veteran defenseman to pair up with . But who?
Huddy. They need Huddy
Whoops! Meant for fishman’s comment
To coach maybe.
Yup!
Bob S was advocating in the intermission for a Nurse Bouchard pairing and move Ceci to pair with Broberg
Not sure if Woodcroft shares that opinion
Gudas would be nice but he is a right shot!
Use to be a lot of commentary about Manson being a D whisperer. Not so much anymore……
If the rawhide theme starts playing will KRussel ride on in to save the day?
Just… OOF!
Very interesting to me that the Oil are so terrible at home.. trying too hard to play an offensive style? Seems to me they were playing an attacking game until they got up by two. Easy to look at individual plays and players but it a sense of calm this team is missing at home. We need our swagger back! In the form of Kane..
After Two:
4-2 Seattle (4-1 Seattle in the second)
20-18 Seattle shots (11-4 Seattle in the second)
35-25 Edmonton shots (15-13 Seattle in the second)
==
Hoo boy, that was an old fashioned shit kicking. Lol. Holy shit! Oilers were humiliated in that period. Will they respond? This is a good test for them. Have to hand it to Seattle, they worked hard and are very skilled.
Major playoff implications riding on a single period of hockey.
Poor team play makes all opposing NHL players look good! Especially 3rd string goalies, although not that tonight
OP is confident Oil will respond.
LOL.
Is this the daughter, or the son, who’s grabbed control of LT’s account after the old man switched over to the hard stuff after goal 3 and proceeded to need a nap?
I thought that was a helluva period for Seattle. Dynamite. Oilers can’t walk away from that period thinking they’re anything special. I don’t drink weekdays.
No worries we got you!