In Every Dream Home a Heartache

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers lost a hockey game to an expansion team last night, and it was at home. For all the promise of spring 2022, when the club went to the final four, this year’s team has given it all back and more. Jay Woodcroft’s brilliant work of last season looks like a gigantic stroke of luck this morning. The Oilers youth is the gang that can’t shoot straight, and mistakes end up in the back of the net with alarming regularity.

You’ll often hear talk of ‘coaching up’ a young player, but there is no proof in Edmonton.

The Seattle Kraken are worthy of respect. The Edmonton Oilers? They’re porridge. If this Edmonton Oilers team was a Rolling Stones song, it would be Mixed Emotions. Stale, predictable, lacking inspiration. It seems like hyperbole, but at this point it’s fair to say it: Some of the players, coaches and management may not be in the NHL next season. On merit.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
  • January actual result: 0-1-0, 0 points in 1 game
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 20-17-2, 42 points in 39 games

Edmonton sits in the final wild card spot today based on points, but it’s a mirage. The Colorado Avalanche have a better winning percentage and once that team gets healthy it’ll roll on down the highway. The Oilers? Every team Edmonton faces at home is represented by Anton Chigurh, and the Oilers are the poor damn traveler who who is introduced to an air pistol.

This team is in trouble.

THE GOALS-AGAINST

  • The first goal (by Matty Beniers) looked like great hand-eye and then goalie interference, but Darnell Nurse lost position and then pushed Beniers to land on Stuart Skinner. It was not effective.
  • The second goal (by Jaden Schwartz) featured Brett Kulak getting flagged for a penalty to begin a sequence along the right wall (midway between the blue line and the goal line) in Edmonton’s end. It ended with a shot from the blue line and an unattended Schwartz finding the back of the net while Kulak and Tyson Barrie found the swimup bar in the slot. It was just an awful sequence. The McDavid line was unable to touch the puck during an episode that took 20 seconds to complete. No desperation from any skater on the ice representing Edmonton.
  • The third goal (by Yanni Gourde) featured Philip Broberg going walkabout off the faceoff, Evan Bouchard unable to handle a bouncing puck, and more rushing around looking busy from the forwards.
  • The fourth goal (Jared McCann) featured the Kraken moving beautifully around the Oilers mannequins and scoring with two great passes. If an Oilers player touched the puck, it was an accident.
  • The fifth goal was an empty netter.
  • I thought Connor McDavid had a solid game. I have issues with everyone else. I thought the line (Hyman-97-Puljujarvi) was excellent (1-0 goals, 78 percent shot share, 4-0 HDSC). Moving away from this line was a curious decision for me. It was working.
  • Philip Broberg had good numbers (expected goals 56 percent) and he played well with Evan Bouchard and Tyson Barrie. Keep him in the lineup. Dress 7D.

IN EVERY HOME A HEARTACHE

Ken Holland needs value contracts, men making $1 million or less who can play feature roles. I define feature roles as starting goaltender (Stuart Skinner), top-four defense (Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg), any player on the top two lines or No. 3 center (Dylan Holloway, Klim Kostin). Only Skinner is really working out right now and he had a tough night on Tuesday versus Seattle.

Coach Woodcroft drew great performances from young players last spring. What happened? Lots of things have changed, including a tendency to be risk averse and going away from the innovations (seven defensemen) of a year ago. Injuries have hurt, and some of Holland’s expensive solutions (Jack Campbell stopped all three shots he faced) aren’t working. I think the coach needs to find some answers on this roster, or the deadline is going to look a helluva lot different. Maybe they’ll hire a coach named Todd again.

URGENT!

Ken Holland needs to make a deal, but he doesn’t make them at this time of year. Jay Woodcroft needs to get more out of this roster, but the options aren’t grand. I wonder why the coach has turned his back on so much that worked one year ago. The seven defensemen, the elevation of younger players, on it goes.

One of the issues Woodcroft faces is Stuart Skinner’s recent performances. From the start of the season through December 15, young Skinner owned a .936 save percentage at five-on-five through 18 games. Jack Campbell was at .885, through 14 contests.

Since then, Skinner has played six games (.911) and Campbell (.933) just three. It might be time to run with the veteran.

On defense, again, why not seven? Broberg and Niemelainen are both young players and Evan Bouchard is struggling. Holland is extremely unlikely to find help in the trade market, and beyond a recall of Vincent Desharnais (who is strong on the PK in Bakersfield) I don’t see many options in the system.

Finally, I think Woodcroft is going to need to re-think his forwards. Dylan Holloway isn’t scoring, and maybe he never will, but running him with 97 or 29 or even 93 at least gives the team one more high-end skill forward in moments when goals are possible. It might be time to send James Hamblin and or Devin Shore to the minors, perhaps recall Tyler Benson, Noah Philp or Raphael Lavoie. At the very least hit refresh on some of these players. Shore doesn’t PK anymore, and his foot speed is an issue. Why not try Philp? He’s big, RH, wins faceoffs.

It’s time for innovative thinking. I believe in Jay Woodcroft. I expect he’ll have some ideas.

EVAN BOUCHARD

I would like to know if the club has been handling him differently this season. Any advice from any former Oilers? Anyone the owner hired to get more out of him? This looks like a classic case of overcoaching and we know that never ends well. Whatever they’re doing with Bouchard, they need to find the guy who is doing it and fire him into the sun. Today!

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

We’re on 10-2 today, that means four hours for you to vent via text and maybe we’ll open up the phones. The Oilers can’t possibly be this bad. What’s the problem? Let us know. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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LMHF#1

Not a fan of Canada playing dump and chase. They’re not that kind of squad. Also haven’t adjusted their plan to include a bunch of heavy forechecking.

Tarkus

Summarizing!

Wanner finished with 1+1 in a Warriors win.

Chiasson joined the double-digit goal club with his 10th tally of the season as the Wheaties were also victorious.

OriginalPouzar

Malone with a nice defensive stick to cause a turnover and send Bailey in all alone – nope, 2 on 0 – pass over to Lavoie for his second in succession.

OriginalPouzar

Some nice pressure in the defensive zone leads to a clear cut breakaway for Bailey – a nice move but he’s stopped, a scramble ensues – Lavoie bangs it in for a 2-0 lead.

Tarkus

Wanner snipes from the slot for his 7th goal of the year. Has also added an assist as MJ leads 2-1 in the second.

Tarkus

Later start for MJ game than expected + heavy eyelids = summary early a.m.

Victoria Oil

Random thoughts from the Can-USA game:
– The 6-2 score was very misleading. We were fortunate to win. Scoring chances were 29-17 for the US.
– I wonder if they aren’t 32 teams kicking themselves for not taking a 7th round flyer on Milic in one of the last 2 drafts. The Oilers system could use a guy like that.
– I’ve been super impressed by Joshua Roy’s two-way game – not just tonight, but all tournament. He’s the Patrice Bergeron on this team.
– Sure hope we get a best-on-best men’s tournament in the next 2-3 years. Would love to see McDavid, Berard, MacKinnon, Makar, etc. on the same team. We just need a goaltender.

OriginalPouzar

Wow, Noah Philp, what a play. Some real strong work on the half boards in the offensive zone but eventually lost the battle as he was out-maned. With that said, he continued to work and the picked off the pass from the d-man near the top of the circles and ripped home a snap shot for 1-0 lead with about 6 minutes left to go in the first period.

fishman

6-2 win for Canuck Jr’s! Gold medal game vs the Czech’s tomorrow! Rough start being down 2-0 but roared back!

W

Just like Seattle.

Bag of Pucks

Yanks are pretty chippy in this one. I’m half expecting a postgame brawl : )

OriginalPouzar

Yikes:

Ryan Holt

@CondorsHolty
·
14m

Pickard (4-2-1) gets 1st start since Nov. 15. Rodrigue will back up.

Condors will be without Kesselring (sick), Savoie (inj), Benson (inj), and Demers (inj). Of the four, sounds like Savoie is closest and could be an option for Calgary trip.

fishman

Wow another US goal called back. This one clearly goalie interference.

fishman

US really crashing the Can net. Would like to see Oilers do more of that.

Scungilli Slushy

If O Reilly is healthy to play when back he would be the guy to go for up front

Not having his best season so maybe cheaper. I like him more than Toews or P Kane

Also has changed teams twice so it wouldn’t be the big shocker as for the Hawks guys, and I think the best for what they need, a solid tough two way guy who can make life very hard for top players

But he’s a left shot so don’t know if that fits Holland s plan

fishman

Wow exciting hockey being played in Halifax!!!

Bag of Pucks

Hugely entertaining. Fans are bringing it too. It’s electric!

Reja

When did Canada have to cheat to win? What a phoney baloney call.

Last edited 1 year ago by Reja
danny

Blake literally sat on the goaltenders shoulder. How did that not impede the goalies ability to make a save?

Reja

The fix was in totally different result with a 3-3 tie and a PP for the U.S.A.

danny

If Alex Jones were a commenter here, he would like this post

David

Greatest call ever: “there is a goal…tender interference”

OriginalPouzar

Haven’t had a chance to review the comments since early this aft so I apologize if it’s been mentioned but Gregor says Skinner was in the starter’s net at practice today.

Im surprised but also not surprised.

Was preparing myself to cheer for a plus Campbell start.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure if he’s starting tonight but it sounds like Pickard is “an available player” for the Condors tonight.

Diablo

This is just getting bizarre now … if Woodcroft is not going to play Campbell and get our 5 million dollar investment back on track, then he should be fired promptly. Skinner’s not playing well enough to have earned the starters gig unconditionally.

Reja

1.Skinner needs a break. 2.Holloway needs to play. 3.Bouchard needs to play offensively instead of trying to turn him into Lee Fogolin

OriginalPouzar

2) Holloway had been playing more and, in the second period last game, got a few shifts with Drai. Of course, in the third, he took a 4 minute offensive zone penalty when the team was chasing – seems a penchant for some sort of mistake that hurts every time he’s moved up.

3) The three forwards Bouch played most with last night: Drai, Hyman, McDavid – doesn’t seem like he was being Foglined….

fishman

Can trailing US 2-0. Not looking good…..

fishman

2-1! Bedard again. Needed that one.

Last edited 1 year ago by fishman
Red wolf

I think the biggest problem on defence is Bouchard. If he was living up to expectations the Oilers would not be in this pickle. Would Bouchard + Yamo + first round pick get Erik Karlsson?

winchester

Could we just trade for that Montreal cup run defense of a few years back?

TheGreatBigMac

Overreaction give Bouchard a rest, get a rental if necessary -> Gudas or similar

Last edited 1 year ago by TheGreatBigMac
Ryan

I forgot to run Erik Karlsson on the Evolving Wild player cards.

They have an overall rating, then a rating for offense percentile and defense percentile. Th

Karlsson this year is still 99th percentile overall. 99th for offense, but only 9th for defense.

jp

Seems defense doesn’t figure into their overall rating at all?

IIRC Draisaitl was similar 98/99/1 or something?

Ryan

It’s interesting, yes. I was thinking the same thing in terms of Karlsson looking like Draisaitl.

Their model isn’t intuitive at all in that it’s not 50% offensive contributions and 50% defensive contributions. What’s more is that I’ve seen players that have a lower overall rating than either their offensive or defensive percentile.

I would imagine that there’s far more variance in potential offensive contributions vs much less range for defense and obviously they correspondingly put far more weight on offensive contributions.

One curio is Derek Ryan.

EW has him at 36 for offense and 60 for defense, right?

His overall rating is 20th percentile.

As for Draisaitl, I’ve spent years defending his apparent defensive ineptitude that Dom and others often mention. I think it’s partly driven by the amount of minutes he’s played. Often more than any other forward along with being used in high leverage situations and for faceoffs. Lately, it’s been that he only has one leg to skate with.

jp

Yeah, tough to know what to think of the numbers if they aren’t fairly intuitive.

Woodguy and pretty much everyone says the stats should generally pass the smell test, right?

Any chance you could post the 3 year OV/OFF/DEF numbers for current Oilers so we can somewhat vet them with the sniff test?

Ryan

3-year

Mcdavid – 99/99/62
Draisaitl – 98/99/1
Zac Hyman – 72/81/11
Jesse P – 79/58/98
Foegele – 39/28/62
Nuge – 65/78/16
Janmark – 18/19/22
Kostin – 31/34/33
Mcleod – 31/11/86
Derek Ryan – 70/55/94
Evander Kane – 33/68/10

Nurse – 81/97/4
Ceci – 43/32/46
Kulak – 63/36/84
Barrie 82/94/3
Bouchard 74/83/28

From the smell test, I can say from this and other players, their model can’t hold up when looking at players on bad teams. Kane seems to get faded for 2 years on a bad SJ team. Otherwise for the forwards, it seems to have most players surrounded.

It also seems to inadequately adjust for QOC for defensemen, in particular with Kulak (and Barrie) being the prime examples. 3rd pairing d often look better on stats metrics. Kulak’s mostly played 3rd pairing.

Derek Ryan’s 1-year for the current year is 20/36/60, so the 3-year averages will hide how he’s fading with age.

Lastly, the 3 year average could fade or inflate the appearance of players that played on other teams like Kulak.

Kulak’s 1-year current is 18/32/25, so he’s struggling playing second pairing minutes, but his 3-year still looks good.

Jesse’s 1-year current is 34/2/98

Bouchard’s current struggles are highlighted: 1-year current 4/34/6

edit:–> I don’t think EW puts enough weight on player TOI/g. That’s why it thinks Ryan’s better than Nuge or why Barrie and Kulak are really good.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
jp

Thanks.

The overall ratings look reasonable in many cases, though Kane is a huge miss. His scoring and relative numbers were strong in SJ. Giving a clear 1st line winger a 33 rating doesn’t inspire confidence.

Speaking of bad teams, how are Chychrun’s numbers?

Puljujarvi ahead of Nuge and Hyman (even over 3 years) is very tough to swallow too.

Kulak would have been close to 50% 2nd pair usage over 3 years since he played lots with Petry in Montreal. Possibly his ratings are inflated though.

The offensive/defensive numbers seem a bit all over the place too. Nurse 97OFF and 4DEF?

Ryan

Chychrun

this year: 78-87-49
3 years: 85-86-74

Kulak’s getting smoked this year though. 18th percentile overall.

As for Nurse, Dom’s model doesn’t like his defense either.

This year EW has Nurse: 66-82-26
Dom has his defense at 30-50th percentile, but original projection as 10-30th percentile.

Just looking at the Oilers forwards, it seems that EW’s model doesn’t like high Fenwick against.

Players with high FA/60 seem to be on the bad defense list for EW (forwards), but the correlation doesn’t seem to be there for defensemen.

Kane, Hyman, and Draisaitl.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
jp

‘Not like’ Nurse’s defense sure, but 4th percentile?

Models like these are really hard to make work it seems.

jp

According to Ryan there’s some qual comp in there, but yes that Nurse defensive number is well off the mark. Likewise the Kane defensive/overall number.

jp

🙂

John Chambers

I like the idea of a trade for Erik Karlsson and James Reimer that sees us send Campbell back the other way.

Bouchard, Puljujarvi, Campbell and a pick for EK & Reimer with whatever salary needs to be retained to make it work.

Bling

To those who want to trade Broberg, a coarse comparison, just using points.

Ethan Bear is producing at a 21 points / 82 game clip.
Caleb Jones is producing at a 25 points / 82 game clip.
Bouchard is producing at a 29 points / 82 game clip (a down year).

Broberg was a *much* better AHL defenceman than the first two in his first season, and he also out-produced Bouchard.

I don’t worry about Broberg. I think he can be a very solid, cost-controlled guy. 25+ points at evens alone with excellent defence. That’s a heck of a player. Patience.

winchester

This is great post Bling, and or but the patience part. If we had patience or if we had time, then sit back and let the B brothers arrive when they arrive.

I don’t think many really want to trade Bouch or Bro. It is risky.

Thing is, the team needs the position filled today. They must arrive now, Jan 2023.

In order for the team to reach its goal it has to reallocate assets.

I say this and yet I only half believe it.

Bling

JP made a great player yesterday being F1 on the forecheck, forcing a turnover behind the net, and making a centering pass to McDavid. JP then raced back down the ice to be third man back (usually job of F3) to help negate what would have been an odd-man rush.

Flabbergasted that he can’t get traction in the top six based on his recent work.

Scungilli Slushy

I think he’s trying so hard to do those things he’s not really including offense

I don’t think he’ll ever produce a ton, but if he could sort out getting in position to take more shots and be able to control the puck and get a good one off he’d be ok

Like the last goal he scored and actually took a sec to get it up, instead of muffining it into the goalie

maudite

The back checking is unreal.

The forecheck can be quite upper level if he puts his mind to it.

His shot is a muffin often from low chance outside wing.

His passing is unremarkable (anticipation meh)

If he was willing to fully commit to a hard 3rd line player and crash net with a shovel stick- he’d be value (assuming they’d actually put him on a pk unit).

Maybe not top 6. But a damn fine top 9 piece.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Diablo

He’s Magnus Paajarvi version 2.0

Ryan

Hockey is mostly goalie.

  • Skinner has 14 quality starts / .609
  • Campbell has 5 / .313

Somehow, the Guide and Record Book failed us this summer.

Holland completed the trifecta. So far, he’s found the worst goalie out of all available this summer while also taking on the most risk both in terms of cap and term.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Bling

I think Campbell will regress to his career mean. He is also not being paid to be an upper echelon goalie, more like someone who is an average starter.

Ryan

I sure hope he does and he likely will to some degree, but IIRC, he’s been struggling since January last year. IIRC, he’s not a good high danger goalie. On the Oilers, there’s lots of high danger chances against.

Still, whether he does or doesn’t, Holland could be behind the times in mitigating risk and contracts.

The Avs took a page out out the Dadbot book in trading 3 picks for a Rangers goalie.

They signed Georgiev for 3 years x 3.4m

The Leafs, widely laughed at when they traded nothing for Matt Murray (salary retained) + a 3rd round pick and a 7th. Murray has this year and only one other year left at $4.7m.

The Leafs also signed Samsanov.

The Wings traded the #73 pick for Ville Husso and signed him for 3 x $4.75m

The Capitals did a 5x $5.25 for Kuemper who’s older than Campbell, but also more established.

It’s still early days, but the Avs, Wings, and Leafs seem to have taken on the least risk in terms of contracts (term and overall dollars).

The Capitals and the Oilers took on the most contract risk, but the Capitals got the more established goalie of the two.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Diablo

Maybe Woodcroft should actually play him. They were willing to let Smith workout the bugs with actual game time last year, but not Campbell. This situation reminds me of how the Oilers handled Dubnyk.

Scungilli Slushy

If Holland adds a LD, hopefully able to pass and defend, unless Bouch can play 2RD with him, and Barrie/Kulak find it again as a pair, there’s still trouble

The above would give 3 decent pairs, hopefully good enough

However if Barrie has to play 2RD, I don’t like the other LD with Bouch, except Nurse

Ideally Barrie is your 3RD as despite his numbers I don’t trust him defensively. He makes a lot of poor D plays still that I see. Unless he’s doing what the coaches are asking

Barrie is often in front of opponents. Someone mentioned some coaches prefer the D stand off opponents so they can make a play still not being engaged physically

To me that would work for teams with great sticks. Some are consistently able to knock pucks down and disrupt passes (Keith was still pretty good)

However the Oilers have terrible sticks, and everything gets through them. I think they need to cover tight and make it hard to deflect or shoot

I sure wish they could develop good sticks. It saves so much physical work chasing the puck and players down. Really increases protection of the Royal Road

Maybe it’s coaching. I don’t recall a team with so much one hand on the stick, especially in the D zone. Drives me nuts, it doesn’t seem opponents do this to the same level. They used to tape kids gloves to the stick for doing that

Diablo

I don’t remember a D corps that flopped on the ice as much as this one does. Forget about sticks … the first thing I’d like to see is the defensemen stay on their skates.

Scungilli Slushy

Baby steps. Steps being the operative word, have to be on your feet

Scungilli Slushy

As a comedian in all seriousness, they should focus on staying in the play and getting back to making the right play

Save the desperation plays for playoffs. Or critical games. It’s all about confidence and mindset. Starfish reeks of lack of confidence in one’s own ability. Especially to the guys your trying to psych out

ArmchairGM

Regarding Evan Bouchard and the notion that it’s not abnormal to struggle in your second season:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=r&p1=8480803&p2=8481542&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

I doubt Red Wings fans are throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

jp

Good post, great point.

I suspect Holland agrees with you.

Scungilli Slushy

Good or better D are hen’s teeth. Like good bass players

Far better to trade magic beans or a forward or forward prospect

I don’t see a #1 D on the block that’s not encumbered with something like ‘old’

Really they could get by with a 2nd pairing LD. And a defensive RS C ideally 3rd line quality

winchester

Mike Smith. He will stare you down and call you a pu**y or a chicken sh*t if he sees you scared of taking a hit. This kind of fire, maybe inappropriate in most settings, is the kind of fire that gets your a** moving.

Kassian would call players out as well but more use of humor, or chirping. Keith and Kane I don’t know, but I would believe it.

The fire now comes from who? Nurse and ….

I hope they target some fire when assessing potential acquisitions. Domi might fit,

VanIsleOil

Losing Duncan Keith,Mike Smith, Kassian, and Kaner is losing a lot of leadership, experience and toughness/nastiness. These attributes are sorely lacking right now. Kane will help bring some when he gets back. Gudas anyone?

Scungilli Slushy

Which is why Gudas would be a nice add on D. Balls out, and you better keep your head up. All the time

Which is why it’s a different team with Kane playing. Definitely need more agro and drive on the team. Way too many good (being generous) but mellow types

Which leads to the lack of vigour. Guerin said he got Reaves for exactly this reason, felt his room was a bit quiet, needed some juice. The Oilers need some juice

Diablo

They need a Bryan Trottier type that the Penguins got when they turned things around. I’d like a Toews or O’Reilly type.

Scungilli Slushy

Agreed. ROR has long been a fav of mine. I’d take Toews at a discount to make up for the Keith deal

ArmchairGM

I have a lot of time for a Gudas + ROR (50% retained) deadline add.

I wonder if ROR would take a Kane/Nuge-type contract in the summer.

rayjds9

Curious if anyone has found out how involved our Defensive Advisor Paul Coffey is in coaching our D this year.

Scungilli Slushy

Always found it curious Coffey as a defensive advisor. He was never known as great defensively. Maybe an offensive advisor, how to use and activate D, PP etc

His game was all speed and O

winchester

I agree. And his game was natural.

Players like Ryan, they usually had to do everything the hard way, and have more to add as a coach.

winchester

In the Dallas game, first shift, McDavid took his man all the way to the net, cut off a puck coming from the corner. Second shift Leon had his man in the slot. Third shift i forget who but all Dallas players were picked up. Different result from that game.

The Org knows the weakness and is trying to focus on getting better. As they do so there seems to be chaos, plus it simply does not seem to be working.

Instead of pounding on the square peg, they may have to go back to playing to strengths, but to do so, they will need to swap some players.

Last edited 1 year ago by winchester
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I wonder what Jason Smith is up to nowadays?

knighttown

Real talk about Broberg now that he seems to be finding his range.

A few months ago I posted that Broberg’s best comparable would be Brett Kulak (the good version of Kulak not this current monster). I got a bit roasted.

It’s still all I see. I see a rangy strong skating defenseman whose strength will be rush defense and zone entry prevention.

I don’t see any sign of truly elite skating like Heiskenen. And Kulak can skate so I don’t see any insult there. Both I would suggest can skate well defensively but in no way shape or form skate well offensively like say Makar or Hughes who separate from wingers in the offensive zone. Long and fluid without any agility or “pop”.

Offense seems ultra limited to second assists and rebounds off a decent point shot. I actually think Kulak is pretty decent at this but for example, one would not suggest him for a power play.

He seems modestly physical at best for a man his size as does Kulak.

He seems to have an average processor like Kulak compared to, to steal another posters example, say Andrei Sekera.

So what is it that the rest of you are seeing, besides a birth certificate?

godot10

Broberg is 6’5″ and 30 pounds heavier, and hasn’t cut loose yet, because he does what the coaches tell him to do. No Brobergian jazz yet.

krakman

Broberg is actually 7 feet tall and he shoots fireballs out of his eyes and bolts of lightning out of his arse!!!

Scungilli Slushy

I think he’ll be more like Nurse as he is these days ,not fighting or hitting as much as he did

Hopefully more stable defensively. Relies on mobility and size/ reach. Similar processing and not really an offensively talented D at the NHL level. Hopefully develops a really good break out pass

jp

Agree with the Nurse comp and have used it before.

Including not really offensively talented, but contributing 5v5 offense (Nurse is tied for 5th in EV points and 8th in goals this season, for instance).

Bling

He is an elite skater. Agree that we haven’t seen it yet, in terms of rushing the puck up ice, but it is there.

I also don’t think we can judge the guy. Bouchard was riding the pine in his age 21 season. I’m cherry picking, but Roman Josi put up 18 points in 48 games at age 22, his first taste of the NHL, and he played the first half of that season in Europe.

Broberg was always going to be a bit of a project…as LT recently said, he’s between running on time and running ahead. Patience.

OriginalPouzar

Have to agree with Bling, and have posted along the same lines over time. He is developing right on schedule, if not ahead – only real issues so far have been the injuries.

If one is looking to the offensive skating of Makar and Hughes and Hieskenan (all elite d-man and top 5 picks) as a comparison, I think the expectations are a bit unreasonable, no?

Bling

By the way, I think a rangy d-man who defends very well, transports the puck well, and puts up some points is a *very* valuable player, particularly if they are cost-controlled.

Broberg will likely never get a sniff of powerplay time, which may keep his cap hit on the lower side.

OriginalPouzar

Jason Gregor

@JasonGregor
·
2h
Oilers lines:
Kostin-McDavid-Hyman
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Bottom six wasn’t as clear. Didn’t do any line rushes.
Foegele-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
Did do some drills together. But not a lock.

Kert

I don’t hate it, as long as the bottom six are getting ice time.

winchester

While I do like our forward roster, i cannot help but laugh a little and think that a fly would not be in much danger.

jtblack

Seems the bar keeps getting set lower and lower.

“Hey, my kid is finishing medical school. Gonna be a GP, then maybe specialize in something.” 4 months later – “I saw your kid serving fries at McDonald’s?” … “Yes, Med school didn’t work out, but at least he has a full time job.:”

Oilers at Training Camp. “This is the year. Balanced roster. Superstars in their prime. Team should finish Top 6 for sure, maybe be the best team in the West.”

4 months later – “They aren’t in the playoffs but hopefully they can win 8 in a row. At least they aren’t out of it yet.”

4 of the last 7 Cup Winners have finished 4th or better in the Reg Season. 6 of 7 in the Top 8. It’s go time for Edmonton or we will be discussing woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Bag of Pucks

Truth.

ArmchairGM

… or we will be discussing the draft.

hunter1909

When they played Seattle a couple of games ago you would be forgiven if you thought that the Oilers had started turning a corner, that they were about the assert themselves as a playoff contending team right away.

Evidently, so do the players. Unfortunately, the players also seem to think that they can show up, play astonishing then somehow eke through one W after another. They they don’t.

Could it be the fault of the Oilers fans?

FabioRoberto

No…this is on the players, management, and media. The fans poor endless money into these guys and get back garbage efforts.

OriginalPouzar

We talk about yet more goals off the face-off and I absolutely agree and found it very odd to hear Wood say “2 goals came off face-offs that are normal a strength, specifically in coverage for us”.

I know the public verbal is not often completed honest but, huh?

I do sometimes try and stop short of assigning definite culpability to players on face-off plays as I think there are various types of coverage structure and we don’t know what each player was “supposed to do”.

On that, I know many will disregard completely but David Staples actually talked quite a bit about the face-off structure from last night’s game on the Cult pod with Bruce – he went back and watched every d-zone face-off (both teams) last night and had some strong analysis of what they were doing.

knighttown

I caught this too on the post game availability. Woodcraft is either lying (not for the first time) or is clueless. So let’s assume he honestly isn’t aware then that’s mighty concerning for a coach who preaches “details”.

rich tm

Or does he not want to throw his players under a bus in the media – which is what Tippett was doing towards the end of his tenure?

OriginalPouzar

Woody brought up the face-off goals all on his own when responding to a question…..

leadfarmer

Either pay the ask for Chychrun or start burning this down
that hole at 2 LHD has become a crater that has swallowed the team

Ryan

I mostly agree with you.

Now, what do you do with Campbell?

I guess if you do a buyout this summer, the next two years aren’t too bad and then the cap(hit) gets worse…

That Campbell contract sort of reminds me of 2008 when GM’s were handing out term to over 30 goalies that weren’t elite.

I’d have to look back, but I sort of remember the ?2012-4 Stars having a pretty good team, but hamstrung by having two crappy ~$5m goalies they couldn’t get a disposition of.

Bad goalie contract are a huge challenge since they block improvement at a key position.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
oilpower

You wait and see if he can rebound to a decent level. Sort of like what happened in Boston last year. Hell maybe Campbell can get it together in the next couple of months.

OriginalPouzar

My goodness, Jack has been awful I think we are pretty darn far from a buyout, aren’t we? Even taking away the fact that Jack himself has been very streaky (very bad and very good) in his career, lets not forget (a) many goalies struggle, sometimes for a full season, after changing teams and then rebound (see Markstrom, for a prime example) and (b) while not as bad a Jack, there are many higher end goalies struggling hard this season, many below .900.

Miles go to here, in my opinion.

jp

Bad goalie contract are a huge challenge since they block improvement at a key position.

A bad $5M goalie contract is no worse than a bad $5M contract at another position, is it?

knighttown

Spent some time on MoneyPuck looking for a smoking gun in the numbers and found a doozy. Rebound goals for and against.

Preds lead at 29% of their offense from rebounds. Canes lead raw goals with 19. The Oilers have 1 rebound goal at 5v5 which is 1.3% of their goal output. Last by a mile.

Oh by the way they’ve given up 19 such goals, second last.

Differential of 1/-19… -18 is astonishing.

FabioRoberto

That doesn’t surprise me at all.

rich tm

I could be mistaken, but through last year, JP has been one of the better players doing that, and this year it’s not happening at all.

Saying that though, the overall issue is not so much scoring goals, but preventing them. It’s the details in their own zone that they don’t seem committed to on a night in, night out basis.

Kert

I wonder how much a healthy Kane would improve this.

winchester

astonishing and completely obvious

Oilers defencemen are like butter, easy path to a rebound

Opponents are just so dang pushy its more comfortable for Oilers to stay away. (Not quite true, Hyman and Jessie get in there, but its hard going)

Thanks for searching that up

winchester

that last bit was not meant to sound sarcastic

Scungilli Slushy

I don’t think they have a specific strategy of how to create good chances off the cycle

Either that or the players suck at it

You have to pass to a player with some space in the slot of high slot (as always happens to them) or have players timing a run to the slot for a tip if passing it to the point

Pretty hard to score just trying to bang in wraps or standing in the blue paint whacking away. Unsophisticated

The good teams that are also good in the playoffs play the same all year, and that ability means hot goalies or teams just clogging don’t mean you can’t score, like our Oilers

They play their system game in and out all season; and everyone gets it down and rolling along. And if the other guys are sloppy you get to have more fun and score a bunch

Most teams that take the step have to decide to commit to such play, or they flame out. The Avs did, Bolts, Laughs are trying this season. Bruins have for years, injuries often get them, Bergeron being the heart of their team

Not the good guys so far

OriginalPouzar

What now?

My goodness.

jp

Differential of 1/-19… -18 is astonishing.

It really is.

Even more so seeing that the rebound shots (5v5) are 68F/80A (ie – not a huge gap).

According to MoneyPuck the Oilers have the worst rebound SH% AND the worst rebound SV%.

Based on the shot numbers that 1/19 rebound goals HAS to be something that’s going to regress, even if it’s not a strength, right?

So maybe this smoking gun is a bit of a positive going forward?

OriginalPouzar

Partner Bouchard with Nurse, let them play 18 minutes at evens and lets roll.

Nurse/Bouchard
Broberg/Ceci
Kulak/Barrie

Broberg can defend – I’m seeing it in real time. I think that pairing can handle second pairing minutes.

Bank Shot

Nurse and Bouchard can’t though.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, Nurse can defend – hence why he plays the toughest minutes in the league. He wins his minutes against elites, even without McDavid on the ice.

Lets not let high visibility mistakes skew the overall picture….. right?

Can’t argue on Bouchard but he has played on Nurse’s right side before and they have had success together. Some offensive confidance will help his overall game as well and, playing with Nurse will give more McDavid minutes – if he fires a couple bullets to McDavid in stride (as we KNOW he CAN), boom, confidence.

godot10

If one is going to do Nurse Bouchard (my kingdom for a Bear), then

Broberg Barrie
Kulak Ceci.

Scungilli Slushy

Or a healthy Tanev

Scungilli Slushy

Occurred to me maybe Bouch is more comfortable with a protector

Keith wasn’t big but it was well established that you couldn’t mess with him. You would pay some way

He seems to play better with Nurse as well. The Oilers and their timid players, yeesh

flyfish1168

This team is so frustrating. Watching our team and then other teams play one of the stark differences is the discipline to stick with the system. Our 5×5 play seems to be so fragmented and not structured outside of our specialty team play. We really need to improve 5×5. Lesser talent teams can beat us just by playing a better discipline structured system

Last edited 1 year ago by flyfish1168
FabioRoberto

You mean you don’t enjoy Another Night At The Improv?

OriginalPouzar

Woody just starting to talk now so I’ll update if he provides any additional info on:

Jason Gregor

@JasonGregor
·
59m

Based on jersey colours…Kostin will be in top six. McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto and Hyman also in blue.

knighttown

Please please don’t put 97 and 29 together and certainly not with 18.

If those are the 6 the go 21/97/56 and 18/29/93

hunter1909

The internet saw fit to keep me from watching last night’s game so thankful for that…

This team…

I ain’t even mad.

FabioRoberto

I feel for the season ticket holders….

Bag of Pucks

At the end of the day, hockey fans are paying for entertainment. With that in mind, I have an honest question.

What would you prefer, McDavid and Draisaitl winning Art Ross trophies and/or contending for Hart Trophies while cheating for offense first and missing the playoffs OR McDavid and Draisaitl trading offensive numbers for Selke caliber play on a defense first club that consistently makes the playoffs?

Chelios is a Dinosaur

What we WANTED was a Christ-like resurrection. We didn’t want to bury the OBC, we wanted it replayed. We wanted to know that this is OILERS hockey. Fast, skilled, high scoring: the reason we play and watch. As it was meant, as OILERS were meant.

But we are getting a dear lesson.

I want Cups. I am ready to have THAT conversation after this season if it ends in the direction it is headed.

Bag of Pucks

Further to the above point:

Everyone gives these guys a free pass on the team’s woes but it’s amazing the offensive numbers you can put up when you’re treating defensive responsibility like a thing you do when the spirit moves you. Leon turns over the puck way too much on low % passes. McDavid has been ‘also in photo’ on numerous GAs where’s he gliding on the backcheck. They are not blameless. Far from it, they set the standard!

Last edited 1 year ago by Bag of Pucks
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Win. I like to watch a team that wins. I do not really care how they do it.

FabioRoberto

But everyone is scared that they will leave Edmonton if they get critiqued….

Scungilli Slushy

This is where the rubber meets the road

McDavid is unique, and can be treated as such. As Gretzky was. But that involves the GM and coach (who was the same guy in Gretzky’s case) being innovative. And getting the guys that can allow Connor to cheat for O. He can’t have the defensive responsibilities and also do that, it’s one or the other

They don’t have a strong 2nd line C non Drai option , no Messier, so it shouldn’t be Leon. Nuge according to NHL Sid’s numbers say Nuge is getting worked at C at evens. Much better at wing. He also needs to have certain player types to do well at C, but it doesn’t make sense to start there, start with Connor and Leon, and Nuge helps at wing with that

Drai is obviously a very good player but isn’t so good he can be what Connor is. Or have special treatment in the same way. Connor can do things nobody else can. He’s a threat every shift, every stride. Leo needs to be the strong 2 way C. Maybe he’s too injured and can’t do it right now

So the innovation, and getting the whole team involved. The coaches have to lead them out of this, or they will lose their jobs, and we have to start over. And maybe again, until somebody can get the buy in, whole team going, and figure out what to do with a generational player, like Slats once did

Bag of Pucks

I can’t get onboard with giving McDavid a free pass on defense. The C has to set the standard not be treated like he’s too good for those responsibilities. If the salary doesn’t separate him from his teammates, that certainly would.

Yzerman had the same challenge. He cheated for offense until Scottie Bowman got the reins. He then became one of the best two way players in the game and the Cups followed.

McDavid’s skills set him up perfectly to be just as good on D as he is on O. He just has to want it and accept that he’s trading scoring titles for Cups. That’s the hard sell.

Scungilli Slushy

For sure

No pass on D play , just get someone else to have the defensive responsibility in the D zone. Backtracking is everyone’s job as it’s first player back etc, then they switch off

Kurri did it for Gretz right? For a player at that level I don’t mind the idea, hard on the opposition if they have to worry about that, and the D zone is covered

hopeoil

McDavid has been around league average defensively the two prior seasons, marginally below average this year by most isolated metrics.

You have a case with Draisaitl. Id say I wouldn’t leave Zach Hyman unscathed here. He’s putting up strong competition for the worst defensive forward on this team. Hyman isn’t even “in photo” on a lot of goals against on defensive zone turnovers, he’s already off to the races. Kassian-esque commitment to breaking the puck out.

All three need to take shorter shifts in my opinion. They get caught gassed in their own end far too often.

Last edited 1 year ago by hopeoil
FabioRoberto

The latter every day of the week

greenshifter

Somebody should ask 97 & 29 this very question.

greenshifter

Every time they win a major award or hit a lofty milestone, tears of joy roll down my face, drive around honking my horn all night, party for 7 days straight, all while waiting for the parade!!!

FabioRoberto

No no that question is too hard to ask and answer…

Chelios is a Dinosaur

McDavid scores a beauty, Oilers go up by two and EVERYONES foot comes off the pedal.

Just like that.

Its unbelievable.

This team absolutely has the skill but it lacks heart. Too bad, these all seem like nice guys.

I’m almost done with being tortured by the reality of this and would rather watch a team of hard working plugs again. McDavid is beautiful, but if this is what it is going to be, we will need to all face one of two very very unsavory options sooner than later. I’ve started to steel myself in that direction.

McSorley33

Picture what happens to this team if McDavid misses just a handful of games this January or February.

How balanced is the team, really?

Scungilli Slushy

Others might step up

The glory bunch went through these things with Gretz, very similar regarding his injury or the team ‘seemingly’ sliding into watching him play or waiting for heroics

This is on the coaches to coach them past or through it

I’m sure they’d rather have Connor on their team or be on his, than not. Thing is that growth can’t take another 5 years

godot10

Maybe they will play as a team instead of a bunch of individuals.

FabioRoberto

The problem is a handful of individuals dictate what this team will do, rather than the other way around….

OriginalPouzar

Vrana clears – thought a bottom feeder team with lots of cap (ARI, ANA) might take a flyer and see if they could flip him in the future but guess not.

Teams likely will try and trade with DET to see if a retained salary transaction is out there.

Scungilli Slushy

Not going to do anybody a 5M dollar favour these days

McSorley33

Famous line from Red Wings long time colour guy Mickey Redmond last year when we played them….referring to Vrana:

” Has he touched the puck this game.”

Reja

Mikey was a damn fine hockey player before injuries derailed his career. Mikey’s old school tells it the way it is unlike these PC manufacturered retreads they employ in Canada.

McSorley33

Pure gold in the booth as well.

Exactly….last of the media guys that will occasionally tell it like it is

Scungilli Slushy

With my belief that the D is very unbalanced I also think that they don’t have any ‘smart’ D. Ceci is steady, well rounded but 2 pair at best. Nurse is all physical. Kulak is fast but not a smart player. Bro is fast and practiced defensively but not a heady player. Barrie is not a heady player. Bouch isn’t the player he’ll become so who knows. He may be smarter tha the rest but he’s so under-confident he’s lost right now. Niems is steady but I’m not sure how smart. Maybe a better Ceci in a while?

Remember Sekera? Miss that guy or that type. All brains. They need some hockey IQ D to balance things. Make the right reads and plays consistently

GordieHoweHatTrick

This is my take too
the tools in the shed are “too dull”

McSorley33

Yam- 2 goals
Jp- 3 goals
Holloway 1 goal

Bouchard:

GF: 20 / GA 33

Listen, Holloway is a raw rookie.

The cold hard truth is none of our young prospects (save for Skinner?) has performed-ANYWHERE – near what even a cynic like me thought.

I was certain one of Yams or JP would take off playing with McDavid or Drai.

I can’t remember if it was Pronman or Wheeler – but people shot the hell out of those messengers when they doubted Evan Bouchard.

I am not giving up on these young kids – at all. But, their play is a BIG reason why we are struggling just to make the playoffs as McDavid torches the league.

Kailer is 24 now – 11th on the team in scoring tied with plumber Janmark

JP is 24 now – 13th on the team in scoring

Evan Bouchard looks lost at times defending.

lenko

Starting to look like Bouchard really doesn’t want to be here. It all started when he was held in initially held back and all those 9 1/4 million $ boo-boos are affecting the entire defense.

OriginalPouzar

May I ask what makes it look like he doesn’t want to be here?

I haven’t seen anything but, of course, maybe I’m missing something…..

McSorley33

Rats….hate it when when a team is not missing 1/3 of its starters.

Are we sure there are no small moral victories from last night?

GarbanzoHumanBean

Rats?
This team needs to go about 27-16 (not including bettman) in the remaining games to guarantee the playoffs. Fans can count the number of 60 minute efforts to date on one hand. Pretty normal fan reaction.

McSorley33

Some members of the PR crew were pretty happy with our game against the Manitoba Moose.

FabioRoberto

It’s an absolute embarrassment to have thrown away points to bottom feeders. Even if they had won half of those games they would be a few points off of the division lead.

OriginalPouzar

I would like to know if the club has been handling him differently this season. Any advice from any former Oilers? Anyone the owner hired to get more out of him? This looks like a classic case of overcoaching and we know that never ends well. Whatever they’re doing with Bouchard, they need to find the guy who is doing it and fire him into the sun. Today!

Is it over-coaching? I’m not really sure what that is but, sure, maybe it is, I don’t know.

I understand this player having struggles defensively – that’s a part of his game this is going to continue to develop over the next 5 years or so – yes, that long, he’s young.

It seems to me that the confidence crushing from his defensive struggles have leaked in to his offensive game and puck skills game. I’m not sure if that’s simply a confidence thing or if there is “over-coaching” in there but its wild.

Take away the last 35 games and what do we think of Evan Bouchard? Well, for one, he’s absolutely elite at getting pucks through. Well, 35 games later and he’s all of a sudden the “shin-pad assassin”…..? What is going on here? He’s gone from elite and abysmal in that area? How does that happen?

Same idea with his ability to keep pucks in at the blue line, his ability to make quick and efficient transition passes (from various angles), etc.

What is going on here? How does a player lose all of his great attributes?

I think calls for trading this player, for putting him in the AHL (FYI, he’d never clear waivers), etc. are crazy. Something is going terribly wrong right now but:

(1) he’s shown he can be upper-echelon offensively at the NHL level
(2) d-man don’t develop in straight lines and something about 300 games – not near that.

I’m extremely demoralized, frustrated and, mostly, shocked by how poor he’s been but I’m holding and am fully confidant this will turn around. Trading him now would be a mistake unless they are getting real value for him (i.e. the value he would have got back in September).

Scungilli Slushy

Most players need proper support

Kulak Bro and Niems aren’t that

They all also need players to support them

If Holland plans his roster in the summer, this was a fail for me

Barrie also needs it. He was not good in the heart of the game before Kulak, and now he’s struggling compared to last season as well

The numbers say 5 D above 50% goal share per LT, but I see sloppy D play consistently. Lots of unchecked opposition in close, more than just Bouch. Terrible clears, lost battles etc. Weird

oil-in-the-blood

I dont believe that Bouch is being over coached but that could be possible leading to overthinking on his part creating pressure on himself BAM the puck is a grenade. I feel it is more that he isyoung and in his 2nd year, lots of players have a tough 2nd season especially D that are put into a prime position, pressure just in that. He will come around, trading him would be stupid. I also agree about the D overall. It is just lacking another 2 good to very good D. GEEZ look at how Keith helped last year, he was good at that point not very good but he sure calmed the D down esp Bouch. We don’t have a good enough Defense, plain and simple. They have a hard time exiting and with puck retrieval and then forwards cheat and team structure goes out the window. The team can play that game we have seen it but right now we are lacking the right players or time for the players we have for consistency. They may come around but its getting tight. Yes it is frustrating. BUT oil fans like leaf fans live and die and whine a lot and walk the edge of the world with losses. Forcing Bouch out of town is the wrong move.

Scungilli Slushy

Keith still had an outstanding break out pass. Nobody currently does and it shows. Timing, pace, reading the play

They need a D redo IMO, support the young guys. Not really a puck moving group as touted, but they can all skate, for once. Just the high end hockey part

oil-in-the-blood

OP also agree with your value comment. IF you can get equal to good value from a trade then maybe…

winchester

Only one reason to trade him. He does not fit within the Oilers d men group. Barrie is already present. The Oil absolutely needed to nail that draft pick, they absolutely needed that strong right hand d man. And if you remember Chiarelli’s words he said they chose “the most NHL ready defenseman they could find”

While Evan may go on to great things, he may not be the player needed for this particular group. Thats fine, and if that is the case, can he be the pick/player that brings in the right piece?

The answer is there is zero faith that the Oilers could swing a trade like that.

OriginalPouzar

I understand the Barrie is already here and there is little doubt he’s a better player, in all zones and game states, than Bouchard is right now but there is a massive age difference and also a massive cap hit difference (and, given how the first half has gone for Barrie, Bouchard won’t be near as expensive as we though a few months ago).

I know, its about “win now” and, today, Barrie is better but, really, was that the case 6 months ago? Something about sophomore slumps, and not developing in straight lines and 300 games…….

I’m not saying that Bouchard is not tradeable, sure, if there is REAL value for him – the value the majority of us placed on him just 3 months ago. 35 games does not define him nor lower his ceiling. His 5 on 5 production last season was really something special at his age and that player will be back

Diablo

The revisionist history here is quite flattering towards Keith now … last season, everyone here was completely certain that Keith was washed up, and unable to be more than a really expensive 3LD. When he retired everyone here was besides themselves to be relieved of his cap hit so that we could resign Kulak and Jesse.

Same thing with Smith.

Everything wrong with the team was blamed on these two. Now suddenly everything wrong with this team is due to not having these player’s veteran influence in the room and on the ice.

News flash – if those guys were still on the roster, people would still be fixated on them been overpaid has-beens, whose play didn’t live up to their past reputations, whose cap hits prevented the team from retaining younger players or being players in last summers UFA binge, getting played preferentially and holding the young pups back.

There would be a never ending deluge of posts tar and feathering Holland for the Keith trade and the Smith signing, mocking their veteran eye glow.

This is just a narrative to gloss over the fact that the problems of this team are unique to the personnel currently in the dressing room … the talent is there but the dedication to playing a team game is not. The coaching staff owns a lot of this – from unbalanced minutes, to riding Skinner ragged, lazy changes, poor PK, poor face off schemes, slow breakouts and defenseman flopping all over the ice.

The young players who are supposed to provide the value contracts needed to take that next step and be a true contender own the rest.

But no one gets called out and the coach is treating these games like it’s still a game in October, and they’ve still got some things to work on.

Woodcroft is the softest coach to ever coach the Edmonton Oilers … this team is a reflection of its coach. Soft.

jp

This is just a narrative to gloss over the fact that the problems of this team are unique to the personnel currently in the dressing room … the talent is there but the dedication to playing a team game is not. The coaching staff owns a lot of this

Sure, except that the personnel and the coaching staff is essentially identical except for Keith and Smith.

Yet now the personnel and the coaching staff are the problem? Or I guess, always were a problem?

Diablo

You’re assuming that one season necessarily carries over to the next. Well, that’s demonstrably false.

Yes – the problem is the players and coaches in the room.

The point of bringing in Duncan Keith was to bring in a player who could impart the knowledge of the level of sacrifice that’s needed to be a winner in the NHL. To live and breath the air of a first ballot HOFer who’s won everything.

The young players on the team (e.g. Bouchard) were supposed to soak that in and be better for it. But there has been no carryover … these players just reverted back to being passive all over the ice.

A team should not have to rely on a 40 year old goalie and a 39 year old defensemen to find that spark. Are the players supposed to find that themselves? Yes to some degree they have to own that. But the coaches (in concert with the team leaders) are also supposed to set that tone.

It’s too hard to trade a player with all the cap restraints now. But there is no limitation to how many different coaches you can have. Systems are mostly the same from one coach to the next, but adherence to those systems differs wildly between coaches.

Woodcroft got the new coach bounce, and got lucky with Kane being added for nothing and Mike Smith getting resurrected for one last run. He’s continued to be upbeat in press conferences, but based on the on ice product with multiple players regressing from last season, he’s done a thoroughly mediocre job. The bloom is off the rose, and the whole thing is wilting now.

jp

Sure, the problem is the players and coaches in the room right now.

But when those same players and same coaches have performed at a high level within the last year, you pretty much have to believe they’re capable of doing it again, don’t you?

Bag of Pucks

It’s amazing how often history repeats.

Before they became a Cup winner, the consistent criticism of the 80s Oilers was that they were a team that cheated for offense and regularly hung their goaltender out to dry. Within this was a subtext insinuation that players like Gretzky, Coffey and Kurri valued personal offensive production over team success. These issues reached their nadir when the team blew a 5 goal lead in the third period in the infamous Miracle on Manchester. Dysfunction often needs to hit rock bottom before the behaviour will change and for the 80s Oilers that was it. Sather didn’t blow it up but the players knew it now, they were wrong and he was right and slowly but surely the team evolved into the squad that could beat the Islanders in a 1-0 tilt in the Final.

40 years later and here we are again with the issues largely the same. One HC after another gets the dead cat bounce when the team commits to more backchecking, defensive structure, and shorter shifts in the short-term. But eventually the dysfunction re-emerges. And worse, this selfish behaviour seems to get set into stone until eventually another HC gets turfed.

I would submit that getting to the final four has now set the expectations for this core and this team. They’ve shown us what they’re capable of now when they play the right way. No more roster excuses. No more draft do-overs. No more injury excuses (every team has them). This core has shown itself to be Cup contender quality and they’re playing like a lottery pick contender instead. That is on them.

Stop firing the HC and hold the players that are cheating for offense accountable.

hopeoil

Instead of firing the coach we should trade one of the core players?

Bag of Pucks

It doesn’t have to be a trade. It can be a players only meeting. It can be Holland meeting with the core to let them know he doesn’t see the HC as the problem and he will NOT be fired. Bottom line, the messaging has to be, “This is your mess. Clean it up.”

hopeoil

Sounds awfully fanciful. If the coach can’t hold the players accountable, how do you expect the players? The leadership group is at fault here, as you’ve alluded to in your post.

Bag of Pucks

Fully agree. This core has repeated this pattern so often, I don’t think we should be optimistic they’ll buy into solid two way play anytime soon. I would have thought being swept by the Jets was their rock bottom moment, but they’re one coaching fire removed from that and now playing like shite for another.

The pattern is systemic and lengthy so the question must be asked. Are individual goals trumping team goals?

Scungilli Slushy

I don’t see them a selfish that way

To me I think they believe they can just turn it on and save the day. So they aren’t focused on what they should be, screw up and try to win the game on their own backs, usually making it worse 5v5

Also not using teammates enough. Every team knows The Duo lol or each other 99% of the time, and it becomes a game of chicken that way. Also the longer it goes the better it’s defended

They still succeed at it at times. But the Bruins aren’t running the league doing that. All team play for them. Which leads to the better players getting timely goals. But you can’t put the cart before the horse

hopeoil

I don’t really think so. I’ve seen a big shift in McDavids defensive play since 18-19. None of Hyman, Kane, Draisaitl, or Yamamoto are even average on the defensive side of the game.

It’s a flawed roster, the top end guys play too much, the bottom six doesn’t piss a drop. I can see why they cheat for offense, but I don’t think it’s a preference for individual goals over team goals.

ive been thinking about this a lot recently, and I think it’s a symptom of a some the other problems the team has.

I do think the core might have too much pull when it comes to roster decisions and ice time allocation, but I don’t have anything to prove that theory. That’s the thing that irks me the most.

I also think it’s worth noting that both McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t exactly lit the lamp at 5v5 this year.

Last edited 1 year ago by hopeoil
rich tm

Who do you consider a core player?

Scungilli Slushy

Winning hockey is less fun, but the payoff is of course way better

These Oilers have 2 guys that can roll, those Oilers had lots, so there’s a difference, and they couldn’t even do it. These Oilers don’t actually dominate 5v5 when they try Hero Mode, even if in reg season they can in OT and usually PP

Last playoffs they couldn’t get timely PP goals on a few occasions, even 5 on 3. It has to be 5v5 play that gets them where they should be

Bag of Pucks

I would count Hyman, RNH, and Kane when he’s back as guys that can roll. They show the skill on the dominant powerplay. The issue is the defensive play 5v5. The frustration is that should be easily fixable. Effort and execution. The fact it continually comes up again as a problem tells me there’s a culture issue. The core, which is the consistent element, refuses to commit to strong two way play longterm.

innercitysmytty

They showed that they could do it for 37 regular season games plus the playoffs last year. So it is in there somewhere. But it’s hard to argue that there is not enough commitment to playing the right away. Effort and execution as noted in your post above. It’s not rocket science but you have to want to do it.

OriginalPouzar

Since then, Skinner has played six games (.911) and Campbell (.933) just three. It might be time to run with the veteran.

I can’t say I have full confidence that he’s gong to “be solid” on Thursday but, yes, I think starting Campbell is the way to go (although I understand those that will argue the other side as well).

OriginalPouzar

I thought Connor McDavid had a solid game. I have issues with everyone else. I thought the line (Hyman-97-Puljujarvi) was excellent (1-0 goals, 78 percent shot share, 4-0 HDSC). Moving away from this line was a curious decision for me. It was working.

Agree with this and mentioned after the 2nd period that this line had been fairly dominant through two periods and I didn’t agree with the “load up”. I know that’s the default when they are in need of goals but sometimes it doesn’t really make sense to do so and, frankly, the McDavid/Leon combo this year hasn’t been all that good when together (relative to expectation).