Game 41 2022-23: Avalanche at Oilers

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers delivered a big win on Thursday night and need games like that one in January. The team is in tenth spot in the Pacific Division using winning percentage, but the truth is that Colorado Avalanche, Nashville Predators and the Oilers are in a tie for the last spot in the conference. It’s a big game tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
  • January actual result: 1-1-0, 2 points in 2 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 21-17-2, 44 points in 40 games

This is going to be a big month either way for the Oilers. The trade deadline is March 3, the team will have played a total of 50 games by the end of January. February features just 11 games. The time is close to add that LH defenseman, unless the audition of Philip Broberg makes real progress. Today’s big story is this: Winning tonight would set up the road trip in a big way, at a point in the season when the Oilers do need to go on a winning streak.

MAKING BETS

One of the things a modern general manager has to do is make bets on players on value deals. I know it’s been a trying fist half, but the bets on the players making $1.3 million or less have worked out pretty well.

  • Stuart Skinner makes $750,000 this season and is an extreme value deal as the team reaches the midway. Among goalies who have played 750+ minutes at five-on-five, his .930 save percentage ranks No. 5 in the entire NHL. Jack Campbell is at .890, ranking No. 32 of 33.
  • Evan Bouchard makes $863,333 with an $850 kicker. His first half has been disappointing. He’s off the pace offensively (3-11-14 in 40) and his five-on-five goal share (38 percent) is trouble. Bouchard’s expected goals (55 percent) suggests regression, but since December 1 Bouchard’s goal share is 42 percent. I’d say expect recovery but 40 games is a large sample. Sometimes good players have bad years. Bouchard’s underlying numbers and his actual goal share are at cross purposes. The most disappointing outcome so far this season, I believe in this player. He remains a good bet.
  • Philip Broberg makes $863,333 with an $850,000 kicker. Injuries have impacted this young player and because of it he has yet to establish himself. For the season, he is averaging just 11:18 a game at five-on-five with a 42 percent goal share. Since December 1, those numbers are 11:43 a night, 50 percent goal share and an expected goal share of 58 percent. He’s getting there.
  • Markus Niemelainen makes $762,500. He is averaging just 9:23 a night, but owns a 56 percent goal share (49 percent expected goals). Niemelainen plays a straightforward game. Since December 1, he is averaging 10:40 a night and still owns the 56 percent goal share. Broberg is playing ahead of him in recent games.
  • Mattias Janmark makes $1.25 million and is a veteran who makes good decisions and has utility. His five-on-five goal share is low 40’s but he’s posting more offense than he gets credited for by many.
  • Derek Ryan makes $1.25 million. His scoring totals have spiked since January 1 and he is a jack-of-all-trades on a team badly in need of one.
  • Devin Shore makes $850,000 has a 60 percent goal share five-on-five and is scoring 1.12 points-60 in that time, but has been in only 11 games. Edmonton’s depth is eroding his playing time. It’s the circle of life.
  • Dylan Holloway makes $925,000 with a $500,000 kicker. Since December 1 at five-on-five, he’s .79 points-60, 44 percent goal share and 50 percent expected goal share. He scored this week and shows signs of progress, but time in Bakersfield would be wise. The signing of Justin Bailey, who is an impact player in the AHL, may allow the transaction.
  • Ryan McLeod makes $798,000. He’s had an uneven year, but owns a 1.34 points-60 at five-on-five. His goal share in the discipline is just 38 percent, 25 percent in his six most recent games.
  • Klim Kostin makes $750,000 and has given the team a real boost. He has a 2.71-points 60 since his arrival, and has smartly moved up the depth chart. His goal share (60 percent) and expected goal share (44 percent) are not similar.

Anyone you’d abandon now? Trade Broberg? McLeod? I think these were reasonable bets. Thoughts?

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Bling

If the last game was the dumbest coached game of the season, today’s is the dumbest played.

Minister D-

The effects of that players-only pep talk lasted all of one game.

€√¥£€^$

Calgary tied with Edmonton with a game in hand for the last 2 playoff spots. Nashville and Colorado nipping at their heels 2 & 3 points behind with 3 games in hand.each. St. Louis only 4 points back now, with one game in hand.

This home stand has been a momentum killer for this team. At the same time it has provided morale boosts to so many rival teams who were floundering.

These results are just okay, but it is simply not good enough. The way things are going, getting into the playoff will be a massive challenge. Until they are able to reel off a few 3-5 game winning streaks, I will maintain the belief that they are not going to make the playoffs and the trade deadline will be too late to make any kind of meaningful move. What meaningful move could they even actually make?

Kane might be back in 3 weeks, but he alone will not fix the lack of consistent bottom six production or mediocre top six 5v5 play.

What’s the frequency Kenneth?

Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
McSorley33

Honestly, never thought I would see Kurtis Macdermid and Brad Hunt on the same ice- in the NHL.

Bednar really never played his 4th line at all. 3 minutes of ice for those poor guys.

Someone called Ben Meyers, Martin Kaut and Jacob MacDonald were pencilled as the Avs 4th line.

We are 3 points behind the expansion team and they have three games in hand.

Like our loss to the Moose a few days ago, some seem pretty content with this.

Richard Roma

Now if you’re Ken Holland or his son Brad, do you watch that game and walk away thinking, “man, what we really needed to win that game was a Joel Edmundson or Vladislav Gavrikov!”

FabioRoberto

The Oilers have played numerous teams shorthanded with multiple players out of the lineup and yet no excuses. They keep playing battling. When you’re giving up pver 40 shots and dominated you need a whole lot more team defence than Edmundson or Gavrikov….

Reja

Why does the baseball gang in the Warriors movie scare the shit out of me?

€√¥£€^$

Something something zombie-looking MFers wielding Louisville Sluggers?

Last edited 1 year ago by €√¥£€^$
McSorley33

So true….

FabioRoberto

The Avs were missing how many bodies? 5-6? Does anyone realistically see this team going on a run? The Avs once they get everyone back will be the team to beat in the playoffs again.

McSorley33

Lost most of their 2nd line to free agency….then injuries

McSorley33

Folks, what happened to Leon Draisaitl, Hyman and RNH and our first pairing D- was horrific.

I actually liked the idea by Woody.

But that line got destroyed tonight.

Drai CF 30%
RNH CF 20%
Hyman CF 35%

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Yea I like what Woody tried but it didn’t work.

A key piece here was that the McD line couldn’t do enough damage when the Drai line tied up the Overload. Replace Klim or Yamo with Kane and it’s a different story. Also not too impressed with McLeod’s play since he’s been back. It’ll come though.

Eventually this is the key to a Stanley. Need to get healthy.

McSorley33

Yeah, McLeod getting fed against sub par competition again here.

Also, a couple of plays tonight where he was first on the puck and yet was unable to come out with the puck.

Scungilli Slushy

When you have River Tam on your ship, maybe you have to figure that out a bit

Not your normal bear. I see Drai out there more, and this year it’s not been good enough

Connor should not be groomed into a normal crew member. Because of the crazy shit he can do when he twigs. His stick is King Arthur’s sword. Find a way to use that to be even more sphincter clenching. The PK use is that, but that’s meh. If you’re going to have the glory guys around, sit with them Jay. Ask what Slats did. What he’d do. Maybe talk to Slats if he will

Drai is awesome but not the same. I’d tell him (I’d pee my pants heh heh) to smarten the $&8? up. Lead. Show the rest how it’s done. He isn’t good enough,at least as he is, to not be more responsible etc. Be the Messier

Start outscoring again 5v5. Use your linemates more, it’s all you have when Connor is elsewhere

Bling

23 minutes for Hyman, 25 for Nuge, 26 for McDavid, 27 for Draisaitl, and 0 (ideas, that is) from Woodcroft.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

About 7 minutes for each of those guys is PP where they scored twice.

PP minutes are not the same as hard battling 5v5 or PK.

Bling

I didn’t like the deployment tonight.

JP had legs and was doing good things early, Holloway had some very nice moments.

Kostin up on the first line is what you’re getting on the first GA.

Even if you don’t believe in JP’s offence, why not have him shadow a top opp forward? Instead Woodcroft plays him 4th line minutes.

Drai line was getting hemmed. Zero adjustments except for load up McDrai.

Thing is, up 2-0, why not use JP as a top 9 player and play Nuge at C? Roll 9 instead of rolling 5-6.

Scungilli Slushy

Drai was dogging all game

I have no idea why they play him so much. He gets ineffective and starts looking for the hero plays too much, conserving and being predictable

Need some ROR at C to ruin some other guys nights. Especially at home

BornInAGretzkyJersey

ROR is my top forward target, if he is indeed available.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

ROR is -28 this season…

Meanwhile Draisiatl has five points in the last two games.

Scungilli Slushy

If he’s healthy I have no concerns

A proven beast

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

A proven beast costing his team one goal a game…

Last time he played like this was with Buffalo when he was pouting for a trade.

TheGreatBigMac

Drai was tired, you could see that OT a mile away. Why do they do that.

Scungilli Slushy

Maybe he’s giving him enough rope

So he buys in on his own

Scungilli Slushy

Thing is Drai isn’t 23

When? Sure playoffs only the last few years, but weren’t all those disappointing seasons learning lessons?

McSorley33

Drai line got hemmed….that is an understatement.

That was with our top D pairing as well.

That was an incineration.

Reja

They should play Skinner for 2 periods and Campbell for the 3rd. Does anyone know the splits on that? Remembet when Mac T threw in the back-up for the shootout and was successful, that took balls. Question for the Oiler faithful what exactly has Woody done that has shown balls?

Harpers Hair

Jet black hair dye.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

MacT had the balls to talk Petry and Dubnyk out of town.

Not always the best idea.

Reja

I’ll take Mac T as our 3rd line Centre the man had heart and he also has the Rings.

Ice Sage

Avs own the Oilers, full stop.
Silver lining is the Oilers looking less likely to have to face them in the playoffs.
Looking forward to LT’s daily blog title “Slip Slidin Away”

Last edited 1 year ago by Ice Sage
Scungilli Slushy

The Avs have a mobile D that can pass. Without Manson a bit small, even with

Holland is going there, slowly. However the Avs D have way more hockey sense. I’ve read they want to shed Girard’s cap, will lower quality some

To me unless you game plan disrupting the smaller skillD, and taking Mc’s speed away, no dice. Can’t play conservative and try to go mano a mano with them as it stands

As it’s always been in the NHL

thelongdark

Yeah it’ll be very unlikely that they meet, if you know what I mean.

OriginalPouzar

Skating in damn quicksand all night.

Take the point.

Have some better legs on Monday and sweep a Pacific division road trip!

hunter1909

Way to go Oilers you just dropped another game you could have won…

To give you a mediocre 2-2-1 record in my 30 game Hunter1909 “Season within a season”

jp

1-1-1 through three January games, to match LT’s projection.

Hopefully they respect what LT has written through the rest of the month.

teddyturnbuckle

Avs still on another level than the Oilers. Honestly I can’t see the Oilers getting past the Avs this year if they meet in the playoffs.

Scungilli Slushy

Not like this

They can’t, aren’t, have the wrong plan, or won’t play in a way to beat them

5 man PK defense, slow and behind forecheck, letting them play their game , only by a miracle

Although I thought Hyman was doing it right mostly. On them quick and rubbing them out, using his size and speed

nelson88

At one time drai was probably my favorite Oiler but he can be one of the most selfish players in the league. Stupid penalty but his super long shifts that are just ridiculous. I don’t know what happened to Woody over the last few months but he has to start holding these guys accountable like he (seemingly) was able to do last winter.

Scungilli Slushy

He should give him the Kovalchuk. Keenan wouldn’t let him come off for 5 minutes once was so sick of the hot dogging long shifts

Harpers Hair

One of the biggest errors was Hyman staying out for an extended shift in an effort to score the hat trick goal.

Selfish.

Scungilli Slushy

Especially for a guy that skates like he has his knees fused

He needs to be fresh to be his best

teddyturnbuckle

Was hard not to notice how fast the Avs changed after 30 seconds and the Oilers players decided to stay out. Draisaitl looked injured all night. If you are going to hobble around out there then change quickly at least.

Scungilli Slushy

Absolutely

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Hyman danced those fresh Avs twice… he batted the puck down instead of sideways. They got owned when they were on the ice…

Good lord this is bad analysis.

winchester

I would have loved to see Kulak get that goal.

That game was bizarre

Oilers were great. Wait, they quit. Then they tried again. Too late.

I would think the positive here was Oil should walk away knowing they still have work to do to beat Colorado.

Bling

1 point is as much as you can reasonably hope for based on that performance.

Munny 2.0

Now that is a “Steve Smith” comment lol

Scungilli Slushy

Connor also late to see the danger

Who cares about the outside guy when Makar is rushing

fistycuff

You never know which Oiler team will show up these days. That was the team I dislike. Very poor 5V5 and pillowy soft defence that can’t seem to breakout of their own zone.

Reja

We’ve been nice and friendly but this announcer loves trolling the Oilers.

winchester

I’m not fond of the Singer

106 and 106

Singer was born in Alberta, cheering for the Oilers.

Singh was an avid hockey fan as a child; he and his siblings were fans of Wayne Gretzky and the Edmonton Oilers, and would do mock announcing using toy microphones.

Reja

Well Hrudey and Cassie have gotten to him because if you check the orgasm level when the opposition scores its upper Debbie does Dallas level.

winchester

I will admit I understand the reference

Scungilli Slushy

Good for him

I’ve been a fan longer

I’m really old

My criticism of the home team would be Ferraroesque

But I would also be blaming everything the other team got on the Oilers giving it to them, outside of the odd on

Like McCranky’s goal, was a gift from poor defending by a top pair and no F anywhere. That was obviously coming from their D zone. Maybe they can’t see that far. McGoo’s

Reja

I’ll never forget watching a Cricket match in Nepal in the 80”s the intensity and the skill are etched in my memory forever.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Guy needs more practice. He jumped the queue too soon, needed to put in more time at the lower levels to hone his craft. He’s improved since he started the national broadcasts, but he’s miles off the pace.

Admiral Ackbar

I watch the away announcers when it’s him. It’s a great way to not get irritated.

Reja

It’s not his fault the Oilers lose all the time but the man sure does get horny excited when he calls the goals against us.

thelongdark

He does the National broadcast.

Reja

It’s time for me to move too Florida and kick back. I’ll even cheer for Tkachuk as long as I don’t have to listen these sellouts on the national state channel in Kanada.

cowboy bill

That was a terrific game . Can’t complain about anything. That was a zinger by Makar .

Munny 2.0

I am going to be alone on an island, but I am completely okay with that game.

Defence is a process. And tonight they were passive, but they won’t always be that way, have to start somewhere. And they were able to put their foot down when required. This reminded me a lot of the game in Denver last year, to tell you the truth.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

You’re bang on yessir.

It’s becoming incredibly clear that the kinks are ironing out very quickly. The road trip here will be good and that sets up for the East Trip.

Add Kane into this mix and we’re cooking.

thelongdark

Kane was 5th in points by an Oiler forward when he was injured.

He hasn’t played in 2 months and he’s still 5th in points.

Last edited 1 year ago by thelongdark
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Yes it’ll be like adding a 100 point scorer to a lineup with four guys set to score >80 and two set to score >130

It’ll be awesome 👍

thelongdark

If the Oilers played the avs in 100 7 game series with the current line ups the avs would win 95 times.

Munny 2.0

Hmm, I dunno, because, I don’t know about you, but I live in an allegedly metaphoric casino and that doesn’t sound exactly right to me.

How did last regular season go?

KnightRain

I hope your right. I liked their positioning but not the passive coverage. We didn’t give up a lot of odd man rushes but they were able to enter our zone at will. If we can be more physical it would make thing much harder on the opposing attackers.

Munny 2.0

No, agreed, the passivensess was the problem. But the mindset and the positioning were not. This was not a lack of intensity as you saw from them turning it on when the score got tied. team knows the top end of the chorus, they’re still finding the bass.

The part I don’t understand is being completely passive with the body against a hurting team… and it wasn’t like we had the puck a lot tonight. Expected hits did not match actual hits.

Scungilli Slushy

I saw a fair few odd mans

They still seem disorganized even if not playing horribly

You’re a coach, but it seemed their line changes messed up the forecheck. It wasn’t there much, or nearly enough in a timely way

Why can’t they just do normal NHL things, and benefit from having what they have?

I am feeling maybe it’s like what Struds said: some guys never get it. Seems like a group with not a ton of natural game

And now I think maybe the GM isn’t charged with ‘Cups Now’ but about becoming a Bruins. Long term contending

I hope not you can do both with some brains and cajones

DevilsLettuce

A process? They were suppose to be battling for the division title, not developing D and looking at the playoffs from the outside.

They had a 2 goal lead with 20mins to bring it home, they didn’t yet again.

The process is this defensive group is not going to process a damn thing as is constructed.

They should have to forfeit the point.

KnightRain

Brutal. Two chances we shoulda finished but no luck. I think McDavid accidentally changed that angle…
We didn’t even deserve a point so I’m not gonna complain about that.
We played like we were scared of them…

jp

That was a damn shame.

Couldn’t finish two amazing chances in OT, great poke check by Nurse on MacKinnon, then the first actual chance the Avs got in OT found the back of the net.

Tough game at 5v5, but they were owing that OT until they weren’t.

Scungilli Slushy

I think Connor may have messed that shot up for Skinner

Looked like his stick on it but only enough to make the read hard

doritogrande

Cale Makar is a good hockey player.

Scungilli Slushy

Especially when you give him all the room he wants all game

Admiral Ackbar

That room is for safety to try to not get beat…

Scungilli Slushy

Zing!

GarbanzoHumanBean

Bad habits on full display again. Another blown lead. This team has a reputation.

flea

Meh that’s a pretty good team. They had their opportunities to win. Got a point, looks like the sky is gonna stay up there another day CL.

cowboy bill

Give it a rest . WTF.

Scungilli Slushy

I agree

They got a point. Depends on what you’re hoping for

Decent not great team, yup an OK game then

Not what I’m hoping for

thelongdark

Imagine paying money to watch this team just not give a shit.

flea

You mean paying for a highly entertaining Saturday night game? I think the fans will go home maybe not happy, but they should be satisfied.

Munny 2.0

That was not that team tonight. Seriously?

cowboy bill

Maybe it’s you that doesn’t give a shit .

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Stuart Skinner should make that save

cowboy bill

Connor got his stick on the shot . Skinner didn’t have a chance.

cowboy bill

Even Makar said it was a little bit of a lucky one.

SK Oiler Fan

I don’t like that goal on the G

fistycuff

O well…oilers lucky to get a point. All Colorado.

rich tm

Got a point they didn’t deserve tonight.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Lots will be written tomorrow about blowing a lead and the shot share.

Doesn’t matter really given what happened after.

Oilers carried the play after the tying goal. They pushed back and hard and killed off a crappy penalty against a good offensive team.

And they will take at minimum 3/4 on the “coin flip” games I marked last week.

4/6 in Cali is ok, 5/6 and we have success.

Its all good folks, the team is fine 🥃

David

This team is not fine.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

You’ll see the point are gonna pile up super fast now.

LMHF#1

You cannot lose that hockey game with the Avs that many people short. Even giving up a point on home ice was shameful.

Scungilli Slushy

Game planned sucked hind teet

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Singular games aren’t this dire and sometimes the Oilers aren’t the most important team in the game. And they got a point.

The Avs had lost five straight and were desperate as shit. That Hunt goal was weird and funny, Hyman could’ve, should’ve score twice in OT to end it.

Your boy Makar got owned twice on the PK, made up for it in the skills comp.

Them the breaks I expect from high offense teams. Entertaining as all sin.

Saw off against the best team in regular season? Yea I’m fine with that.

They need to play one way against Colorado, other ways for other teams. Woody tried to run a Drai line up against a stacked Avs line to free up McD and it didn’t work, Drai got speedbagged.That’s fine, regular season is for testing this sort of stuff. Might be different with Kane back.

It’s starting to fall into place and we’re a few weeks away from adding another 30 goal scorer.

As Drai said last year “don’t worry it’s coming.”

DevilsLettuce

Carried the play after the tying goal? Too bad they couldn’t consider doing that before the tying goal.

Team is fine if you’re interested in missing the playoffs, which they’re in very real danger of.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

They aren’t going to miss the playoffs.

They end with 105 and they’ll be comfortably ahead of Colorado and Dallas.

Munny 2.0

Jesus H. Kulak

LMHF#1

That was nuked.

winchester

What a bizarre game by the Oil

LMHF#1

The intensity and focus is completely lacking with these guys. This game should have been over after the series of power plays and then sleep-walked over the finish line.

I swear they don’t even want it tonight. Zero directed effort out there. None.

Thankful for Skinner, who should have been able to put up the SO tonight, but his team just didn’t want to bother.

Munny 2.0

Could’ve swore they scored on the powerplay tonight…

cowboy bill

Gotta give the Avs some credit . They are the Cup Champs for a reason.

Scungilli Slushy

The Avs set up multiple slot shots, cross seam and rush shots

The Oilers take care of the boards and blindly throw the puck to the net unless they have a man advantage

One of these coaches is not like the other…

KnightRain

Scary finish! Finally woke up at the end. Time for some McDrai magic!

Munny 2.0

71 didn’t recognize 55’s shot pass. The two have some chemistry though, huh?

Scungilli Slushy

Kulak makes that rush and there was nobody to pass to not on the boards

SK Oiler Fan

I liked the rush though.
Not much support

Munny 2.0

I yelled on that one. apologies to everyone nearby

Scungilli Slushy

Connor looked like he was roping a calf there

danny

These Hyundai ads are insufferable.wah?seriously?

SK Oiler Fan

It’s unbearable!

W

I’ll take them over Rogers wrapped in red event.

KnightRain

Great kill!!! Momentum shifter, hopefully

doritogrande

Draisaitl lucky his team bailed him out. What a stupid penalty.

Scungilli Slushy

Leader!!

Reja

Fake call.

doritogrande

That’s homerism. You can’t elbow a man in the face and not expect a penalty. Drai got outworked, then got angry. That’s all on him.

Reja

Watch the replay in slo-mo and get back to me. Helm’s a veteran and sold it accordingly doesn’t mean it’s not a fake-call just like the embellishment call by Hyman.

Tye

He literally elbowed him in the face because he didn’t like that he was checked cleanly… Drai needs to smarten up.

fishman

Whew! Frantic PK.

Munny 2.0

Massive massive kill