The Edmonton Oilers have six rookies who have had an impact on the 2022-23 season. Last night against the Seattle Kraken, rookie defenseman Philip Broberg (3-0 five-on-five goals), Dylan Holloway (two assists) and Vincent Desharnais (picked up an assist, elbowed a guy in the brain part without knowing he did it, and blocked out the sun several times) all did something to help. Stuart Skinner, Markus Niemelainen and James Hamblin didn’t impact the game, but this is turning into a solid year for freshman in Edmonton.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- New DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
- DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
- Lowetide: Oilers should consider obscure options as reinforcements
- Lowetide: Oilers winger Warren Foegele has been odd man out, so what’s next?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Should Oilers GM Ken Holland trade the 2023 first-round pick?
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Klim Kostin’s sudden impact, injury and immediate future
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen pursue final defence spot
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
- DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- January actual result: 5-2-1, 11 points in 8 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 25-18-3, 53 points in 46 games
The Oilers have now won four in a row and are on a trajectory that would see the club post 94 points. That’s close to a playoff berth, and with four games left in the month, these Edmonton Oilers are trending in a good direction.
SUMMARY
- Jack Campbell was steady and made some tough stops. Allowed one poor goal, that glove of his looks like something that fell off of Gumby. His numbers are getting better, now owning a .920 save percentage at five-on-five since December 15. Has a 13-8-1 record.
- Darnell Nurse had one shot, a takeaway, two blocked shots. The play everyone will remember is an unfortunate tip on the first goaln against. He was solid at five-on-five, 65 percent expected goal share.
- Cody Ceci made a couple of strong players to clear the puck from danger on the PK, two shots on goal, four hits, a shot block and a penalty.
- Brett Kulak had a quiet night offensively, showed calm feet defensively. He had a 63 percent expected goal share and kept most of the activity on his watch to the outside.
- Tyson Barrie had a shot on goal, 2TK and 2GV, made some nice passes and was 1-1 goals on the night.
- Philip Broberg continues to impress. Mobile, moves the puck quickly and recovers well. Gaining confidence as a passer. Lost a battle behind the net on one play, Campbell made a fine save to save the rookie.
- Evan Bouchard made a brilliant breakout pass to Warren Foegele for an early breakaway, drew a penalty and had two takeaways. Is now playing a confident game.
- Vincent Desharnais is becoming a celeb in town, his style of hockey the pefect match for a city overloaded with aggression and needing another villain-hero. Desharnais keeps taking penalties without knowing what actually happened. Sooner or later the referees are going to stop calling these interference plays because they’re not really interference. Had an assist, and a takeaway. Effective shutdown defenseman, exactly what the doctor ordered.
- Klim Kostin had a giveaway, was around the puck a lot of the night, but was more quiet than normal. He has been a key addition for this team, on a trajectory to finish the season 66, 20-9-29. It’s been a fantastic debut.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one shot, one HDSC, 2GV and 2TK. Overall at five-on-five, his line was 7-7 shots but 3-0 HDSC, that’s a positive arrow for Nuge this season. Always activity at the other end.
- Mattias Janmark had two shots, one HDSC and a takeaway. The veteran is playing effective hockey, didn’t deserve the anger over Jesse Puljujarvi’s HS. Credit where due, he is playing well. Edmonton has needed a fine two-way winger for the third line forever.
- Leon Draisaitl had a high-event game, fantastic player. Two assists, one giveaway, got absolutely blasted several times early in the game by an assortment of Kraken, but won the battle! A physical night for the big man, the most impressive thing might have been his hauling ass on an effective back check.
- Connor McDavid was flying last night, pretty soon they’re going to have to put one of those parachutes on his back to make sure he doesn’t get airborne. Oh my, his goal was terrific. One goal, four shots, two HDSC, drew a penaly, two hits, 10-5 in the dot. The perfect hockey player.
- Zach Hyman had his usual bag of great stats: 1-2-3, three shots, three HDSC and a takeaway. His goal was a typical Hyman goal, driving to the net looking for opportunity. The fourth Oilers player to his 50 points this season. Incredible top-end talent here.
- Dylan Holloway had two points, one shot, two HDSC, 3 hits, was hit 9 times (!!) according to NST, and blocked a shot. Adam Larsson caught him good near center ice, I thought it might be an injury but the young man got up and impacted the game in a positive way. On track to finish 78, 6-11-17. I bet he posts better crooked numbers than that by the end of the year.
- Ryan McLeod had a goal, one shot and one HDSC, won seven of nine in the dot. On pace to finish with 25 points this season.
- Derek Ryan scored a goal you could call garbage but that discounts skill and being in the right position. They used to call forwards like him “heady players” back in the day. Future coach smart. Had two shots, one HDSC, 1 GV and 2 TK, won three of four in the dot. His being the only RH center on the roster probably got him the nod over JP for the final spot.
- Evander Kane had a solid night to my eye, had a glorious chance on a two-on-one with 97 but the chem isn’t there yet. It’ll come. Seven shots, three HDSC, a couple of hits. The Oilers really do have a different look with him in the lineup.
- Warren Foegele had the look of a man who understood that trades and healthy scratches are in his current reality. Possibly his best game as an Oiler. One goal, six shots, five HDSC, drew a penalty, hit people, created rebounds and havoc.
JESSE PULJUJARVI’S HEALTHY SCRATCH
Quite the fuss over it, but for me JP was in the rotation as a fourth-line player. He wasn’t the first (Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele) and we could see others sit for a game or two. This has been a trying year for Puljujarvi and I believe a trade is imminent and best for all involved.
Puljujarvi’s offense is off this season, he’s shooting less often at five-on-five and having less success on the pucks he does get on net. His individual high dangers per 60 are well off the pace too. Still turning over pucks like hell won’t have it, his underlying numbers (Corsi, Fenwick, shot share, expected goals) shining on. His on-ice goal share this year (14-24) has improved since December 1 (7-5) but no one mentions it. His offense has sputtered this season, the coach has moved on, Klim Kostin won the day.
I think he’ll be dealt soon, rumours have Boston and, as a Bruins fan since the 1960’s, I would be fine with it. Winger A.J. Greer has some edge, maybe that’s the deal. I mentioned him and Trent Frederic as options here.
When he is dealt, many will write and say things that imply Puljujarvi was never a fit and that those who defend him (like me) pay too much attention to the numbers. Watch the games, nerd! I think people misunderstand the argument around JP. It isn’t specifically about the person, but rather the ongoing battle between established media and the math folks. The media noises after this trade are worth watching. I expect a large celebration, and predictions of a career in Europe for this player.
In this case, and really all cases if we’re honest, the math people have it right. The great baseball writer Bill James suggested decades ago that three years worth of stats gives you a strong indication about a player. Consider these totals over the past three seasons for Jesse Puljujarvi.
- Boxcars: 16-19-35 per 82 games
- Five-on-five points-60: 1.44 (No. 7)
- Five-on-five goals-60: .65 (No. 7)
- Five-on-five shots-60: 7.87 (No. 4)
- Five-on-five Shooting Pct: 8.3 (No. 11)
- Five-on-five Ind. HDSC-60: 3.84 (No. 5)
- Five-on-five Pens. drawn per 60: .84 (No. 7)
- Five-on-five takeaways-60: 1.77 (No. 9)
- Five-on-five Corsi Pct: 55.2 (No. 1)
- Five-on-five Fenwick Pct: 54.92 (No. 1)
- Five-on-five Shot Share: 54.25 (No. 2)
- Five-on-five Goal Sare: 54.31 (No. 4)
This is a rock solid NHL player, a third-line two-way type who can score (1.62 pts-60 with McDavid) but needs a driver on his line (1.17 without McDavid). He is an NHL player, expect some in media to trumpet his trade as a reflection on the player. I do not blame Ken Holland, but do blame the organization. Godspeed, young man, you take off and never look back. Find the open road and floor it. You’re a very good hockey player, find your place in the sun.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A big win for the Oilers, Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will be by and we’ll have insiders on the NHL and some NFL talk, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I imagine L.A is regretting picking the dud Byfield over the money man Sturtzle
Av’s beat the boring Flames. Check
Bolts blow their load against Nucks. Check
Oilers hammer a lethargic Tampa team.
Bolts take out their frustration on Sutter’s team.
Only glitch is Vasilevsky rested tonight. Cooper’s been around the block.
Would also say Tampa barely broke a sweat last night. VAN came out disinterested and disorganized and it was 4-0 after one.
Watching the TNT broadcast of the DAL/SJS game.
With San Jose on the PP, the time remaining on the man advantage is projected into a small circle just outside the face-off circles.
Cool.
Regarding JP, I do wonder about Buffalo as a destination for him.
They are wing heavy but Okposo is done after this year and they have Hinostroza and/or Bjork available to dump off.
JP and a 7th
for
Bjork or Hinostroza (who goes to the minors) and a 4th
would be a decent return this late in game. Salary still gets dumped and Edmonton swallows a pick.
Buffalo gets to test drive JP for, relatively, cheap.
What Buffalo fan wouldn’t welcome the “Bison King”.
A friend sent me this TikTok vid and I think it speaks to the Oilers sleeping on the problem:
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMYeMuTFp/
I’d like to ask something that I think some reasonable people might weigh in on.
What do people think about the term “media running x out of town?” Is this term uniquely used in Edmonton?
What incentive would a media member have to run someone out of town? I’ve heard people say that MSM are paid to be mouthpieces for the organization. Which basically implies that the team pays for propaganda. Is this reality or a conspiracy theory?
What would an organization gain by having Spector speaking negatively about Connor’s leadership in the past? Or by taking the air out of Jesse Puljujarvi’s tires? How does that help a team? Wouldn’t a smart organization only want media to publish puff pieces? Honestly, wouldn’t Holland ask the media to write something about Jesse’s value if they were planning on trading him, in order to maximize return?
And how does “running X out of town” work? Do people belive that the team asks media members to engage in repeated microaggressions (criticisms and questions regarding team/personal failings) in the workplace in order to damage a player’s ego to the point that they have to leave the organization? And if so, is Edmonton honestly the only city where MSM are this critical? Spoiler alert – check out any Canadian market…
Call me naive, but it irks me when that phrase is used, because I don’t buy it. I actually think this is anti-vaccine level of conspiracy theorizing. I do believe that the organization chooses what it wants to tell the media (privately/publicly). For instance, when a player becomes available for trade, how that comes to light and the surrounding narrative can be influenced greatly by the team. I also believe that media members are people and it is natural to have relationships with players, agents, coaches, management, all of which feed into implicit biases. Spector said as much here (https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/at-long-last-connor-mcdavid-is-becoming-a-spokesman-for-the-game/). It’s not right, as the media should remain biased, but try telling that to Fox News. On that note, sports media focus on selling stories, and as per the media as a whole, negative stories garner more attention.
But at the crux of it, the phrase “media running X out of town” implies a) media want a player off the team, b) management supports it or is actually working behind the scenes to orchestrate this through the media, and c) the player has weak resolve and will cave to the emotional toll inflicted by the media. Again, my opinion, but that’s a lot that has to happen in a highly dysfunctional organization, year after year, and if that were the case, we wouldn’t hear similar accusations being levelled at multiple organizations
The phrase “media running X out of town” doesn’t imply any of those things…
Maybe C? At best? But that would ignore the fact that Edmonton already has some challenges when it comes to recruiting free agents. having former players talk openly about how brutal the media can treat them doesn’t make the city any more appealing for lots of guys.
I have watched a lot of sports media scrums and if you think players here get thrown more difficult, repetitively annoying, or thoughtless questions, then I am not sure we can agree (Are we talkin’ about practice?)
I am curious what it implies when it is used in the context of Jesse, for instance, as posited by Mari Lonnberg and others on social media. Would he have made it here if not for Spector?
I don’t believe media runs players out of the city.
It’s right up there with the refs are against Edmonton or Bettman doesn’t want a Canadian team to win.
Exactly.
I get a kick out of all the posters who figure the league and the refs are actually scheming against the Oilers.
I think there are two different and separate things.
The media guys like Spector have players (and player types) they like and players and types they don’t (whether that’s their true feelings or what they think their viewers like) and therefore write based on that. And the average fan forms their opinion on players based on what the experts say. So when Spector says Petry or Bouchard are too soft, a good portion of the fan base follows that lead and amplifies the message to the point that it can matter. And to your point this is probably counter to what the organization wants to hear.
Spector and his like also have been notoriously soft on management and coaching because these guys give them access, a) to the team and b) to events they want to attend. So you won’t see Spector go after Holland because he plays in his golf tournament or whatever. But wait until he’s gone and then the knives come out. Follow the story now in Vancouver where some journalist has been denied access…I believe because he’s tough on ownership and management.
And thirdly, guys like Stauffer, an employee of the Oilers, (who I like) are absolutely given information as a way to “run it up the flagpole” or test the waters of the public. They have been dropping hints about moving the Bison King for months and years because at one point it would have been a very unpopular opinion (now not so much). I think you absolutely do need to be cautious when you hear certain narratives or hit pieces come out of left field that propaganda is afoot and we’re being prepared for an unpopular decision.
Summarizing!
Maximus had the overtime Wanner as the Warriors won 5-4 to sweep the home-&-home. He also had 4 SOG and was named 1st star.
Chiasson picked up an assist and also had 4 SOG.
Stamkos hits 500 goals.
501
Kane, Leon, and Connor likely to hit the 300g mark season.
The Oilers are on a nice little run here. A four game winning streak yes, but it’s more than that.
The last 20 games has them 11-6-3. That’s 25 points, a .625 points% and tied for 10th in the league. Nothing crazy (only a 103 point pace) but it is a big improvement.
Is there anything interesting under the hood?
Looking at all game situations, the numbers are:
SF% – 53.2 7th
GF% – 58.4 5th
SCF% – 54.1 6th
HDCF% – 58.6 2nd
OK, that’s fairly impressive (yes, quality of competition, but still impressive).
Special teams?
PP – 13.4 GF/60-0.56GA/60 (GF rate is 1st by almost 2 goals)
PK – 1.05 GF/60-6.83GA/60 (GA rate is 14th in the league)
So the PP remains the best of all time, while the PK is back to league average (with that 4GA Kings game being the difference between average and excellent). Overall, special teams are a big strength (the actual goal differential is 26GF-14GA).
Goaltending has been solid from both guys:
Skinner 12 5-4-2 2.99GAA .911SV%
Campbell 10 6-2-1 2.34GAA .909SV%
In the last 20 games the Oilers have had the #4 shooting % in the league (probably fair) and the #11 save % (maybe Skinner/Campbell can sustain that?).
Their overall PDO is 1022, 7th in the league. Maybe a little high, but average goaltending and a historic PP gets you into that territory.
Good overall results are nice, but how are things looking at 5v5, where the Oilers have generally struggled?
SF% – 53.1 8th
GF% – 59.3 7th
SCF% – 53.5 7th
HDCF% – 58.8 3rd
There’s Jay Evens. Maybe he was only missing for 25 or so games, since the last 20 look excellent? Anyway, good to see.
What’s even better? They’re doing it at both ends of the ice. Here are the league ranks for their ‘for’ and ‘against’ results in the last 20. All states first, then back to 5v5.
All situations:
SF/60 – 3rd
GF/60 – 1st
SCF/60 – 5th
HDCF/60 – 3rd
SA/60 – 17th (this is the closest to a blemish)
GA/60 – 12th
SCA/60 – 9th
HDCA/60 – 2nd
Now 5v5:
SF/60 – 4th
GF/60 – 2nd
SCF/60 – 10th
HDCF/60 – 8th
SA/60 – 13th
GA/60 – 11th
SCA/60 – 6th
HDCA/60 – 2nd
That looks to me like some really, really good signs the last month plus, both overall and at 5v5, both on offense and on defense (especially at 5v5, and especially defensively).
Seems like everything is clicking pretty well at the moment. Hopefully they can keep it up and even take it to another level as they approach the playoffs.
One of the keys since December 1 is the kids. It didn’t make sense to me that so many of Woodcroft’s Condors were struggling. Bouchard, Broberg, McLeod, even Dylan Holloway is coming along now.
100%, the kids are making very real contributions now.
Led by Broberg. It’s interesting that this 20-game look takes us back to December 7th, the very night Broberg’s game started north at a rapid clip. Since then he has posted the 13th best CF% in the entire league (5v5, >100 minutes), the 13th best GF%, the 3rd best xGF% and the 2nd best HDCF%. That’s for all skaters, not just defensemen.
And Holloway isn’t far behind. Here are Oilers on-ice stats for this 20-game run:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=50&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2022-12-07&td=2023-01-19&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Maybe I’m giving QoC too much weight here. The last 20 games were against:
ARI
MIN
MIN
NSH
STL
ANA
NSH
DAL
VAN
CGY
SEA
WPG
SEA
NYI
COL
LAK
ANA
SJS
VEG
SEA
Only 5 of 20 games against teams under .520 points %.
14 of the 20 games were against teams over .540.
11 of the 20 games were against teams over .560 (ie – current West playoff teams to start the evening, plus Colorado in 9th).
Not murders row, but this isn’t really a weak stretch of opponents at all.
In the last 20 games the Oilers are 8-4-2 with Broberg in the lineup, a .643 points percentage, and 3-2-1 (.583) with him out.
FWIW.
Since returning to the lineup December 31st he’s been actual fire. Nice to see.
Yeah great to see him take a step. Definitely an important part of the team improvement, though I think there are a lot of different elements contributing to it.
Excellent post and excellent thread below.
A few remarks after the latest Oilers’ news. Never have I seen such a 360 degree change of opinion on so many topics with this club. After finally, showing on this 4 game win streak a greater commitment top to bottom to team defence:
1) Campbell looks 80-90% better
2) The defence has found in Broberg and Desharnais noteworthy, impact players
3) The shots against are down as well as goals against
4) Everyone seems to be chipping in one way or another
5) The 11/7 alignment is working well
As a result of all this, can we conclude there is no need to sell the farm for Chychrun, Edmundson, etc…?
As far as JP is concerned, I am and will always be a fan. However, at this point in time, he is exactly what he is, a man fighting to stay in the lineup. The only player currently giving him a chance to get back in is Foegele. His direct competitors Kostin and Janmark have brought a strong game. It’s amazing how much chemistry plays a part in one’s career. Again, this organization has seen many be sent out of town only to find new life elsewhere. Could he also be another Yakupov? For sure. Not knowing the injury situation with Yamo, I would absolutely make sure not to part with him unless you get a plug and play player back. My hope is that the team learn from this going forward.
Wouldn’t a 360 degree change of opinion mean that you’ve returned to your original opinion?
heheheh, got em.
Was the original opinion at the beginning of the year that this team was good enough as is with one or two additions at the deadline for depth? Mine certainly was.
They still need at least a top four defenceman. This team struggles against teams with high end forwards on two lines. Also against teams with good structure and heavy forecheck.
Not denying that. However, if the team can roll the entire roster as is and Broberg and Bouchard and Desharnais continue to grow, they may be able to avoid paying the farm for one. With a full lineup, playing structured hockey as has been the case the last 4 games it should fear very few teams
I wouldn’t mind upgrading at Kulak’s spot in the lineup.
In limited viewings when Keith was out, Kulak stepped in and performed admirably.
But being the regular 2LD is bit more than Kulak is cut out for.
Broberg looks like he can fill that role soon … maybe even as soon as next season … but he’s not ready for it this year.
There has been a wide variance in the performance of the D-corps this season, which reflects the lack of proven options back there. Sometimes they look like world beaters, and sometimes they look like an expansion team.
So a true 2LD that has 1-2 years left on his deal is desired.
Kulak + one of Jesse/Foegele/Yama + 1st for the best LHD available with 1-2 years of term left on his deal.
But there’s not much available out there … the Kings can beat any deal we would offer the Coyotes. Provorov just made himself untradeable with his antics yesterday. Edmunson and McCabe are not enough of an upgrade over Kulak to justify the cost. Ekholm has too much term left on his deal.
Aside from sending out one of the 3 million dollar wingers, it might be better to stand pat at the deadline.
Keith played every game for the Oilers after Kulak was acquired. You might be remembering the 4 games Nurse missed at the end of the regular season when Kulak had to play a more prominent role.
While the Keith detractor crowd opined that that they thought Kulak was better than Keith, that was never reality. He may have had some games where he played better than Keith, but overall Keith was definitely the more effective player. Some were also saying at the start of the year that the LD was improved with Kulak vs Keith in the second spot.
So if the Oilers could improve their LD and ease their cap issue with Kulak as part of the package, I’d be in favor. And 1-2 years would make sense based on what you said about Broberg.
How did Provorov make himself untradeable?
Just because he believes in his religion and try to live that way is commendable. The woke corporate that runs the NHL is despicable.
The woke people don’t understand they are the ones discriminating.
Humbly disagree – that top 4 LD is likely redundant next TC with Broburg coming on strong. On the other hand a shut-down RD capable of taking on the toughs with Nurse pushes Ceci down to the 2nd pair and allows Barrie or Bouchard to be on the 3rd pair with Kulak. Desharnais as a #7 who will still plays a lot. One of Barrie/Bouchard needs to be used to get that two-way RD for Nurse.
If you could trade Dumba for Barrie – I’d consider that – but not Bouchard. I’d want a better contract for Bouchard if we deal him. It’s a tough nut to crack – guys like Brodin don’t fall out of trees – but if Holland will probably have a SC in his pocket this year or next if he can get the right guy. It’s that important.
You’re right – it was when Nurse was out – Kulak did well when he had to move up the lineup.
Provorov – ‘untradeable’ was not the right word. But that stunt he pulled is not going to endear himself to those fans that feel that these players should be using their ‘platform’ responsibly. Me personally … if that lowered the price, I’d be spamming Chuck Fletchers phone to see if he panic trades the player for pennies on the dollar.
Kulak, Jesse and a 1st for Provorov with 1-2 million retained.
“Shutdown” and “Dumba” don’t belong in the same sentence. He’s statistically a downgrade on Barrie this year. There’s a reason Minnesota is willing to let him go even as they prepare for a playoff run.
Probably none if I recall correctly.
Yeah. I was just being picky because of your choice of wording.
I took a quick look at this one yesterday. The do mention:
“Collisions with other players (33.3%), the boards (39.6%), and the ice (11.1%) were the mechanisms attributed to 74.1% of high school injuries.”
Being a larger player certainly wouldn’t confer any advantages in terms of collisions with ice or the boards, but certainly in collisions with other players. On the other hand, the bigger you are, the harder you fall (or crash into the boards).
They further cite data for a previous study (link), that suggests 53.1% of major injuries sustained by Bantam players were from receiving body checks vs delivering a check (8.2%).
They found associations with
They did not find associations with height or weight in relation to injury.
They did mention that weight narrowly missed significance in the logistic regression analysis. But it was actually higher weight, which they associated with higher body fat %, as having a higher risk.
I think the math people still have one giant hurdle. I was a big analytics fan but have faded from it over the years.
The problem is variance. Not just small sample sizes but comparing stats with different sample sizes. And more specifically correcting for different TOI by using per 60 rates. If a player has a lower real TOI then there is higher expected variance in that number solely do to the math. You should expect for 4th liners to have higher and lower per 60 rates (regardless of what you are measuring) than 1st and 2nd line players. So if a player has better per 60 numbers then a guy who is getting more ice time then how can you tell if he is better or if his stats are just do to statistical variance?
Error analysis and confidence intervals. But I have never seen a single analytics stats show error or confidence interval.
This is why Georgesx is always banging the per gp vs per 60 drum. He likes to point out that pts/game is a better predictor of the future than pts/60. And he backs it up with math and year over year correlations.
If the point of analytics is to predict the future (which of course it is) then we need to move in this direction. Right now analytics has done a lot of predicting the past in which case you might as well whip out Kenny’s guide and record book.
Excellent
Lot of people with poor math skills are involved with advanced stats. Still, the more, the merrier. Problem is it has become a Wild West and, sadly, modelling is the new Colt 45.
And to make matters worse, teams now have access to better data than we do… if they have figured out how to extract it properly. But once again, we fans don’t have a seat at the big kids table.
Come on Av’s get to Markstrom early and often.
Makar out with injury.
I have my mojo back. Woody start Captain Jack against the Bolts.
I didn’t see much consternation regarding Jesse’s healthy scratch last night. Maybe you are hanging around with an angrier crowd than I am LT. Janmark needs to stay in the lineup given the heater that he, Nuge, and Klim are on. Plus he’s a regular penalty killer and Jesse is not. I didn’t see a problem with it (I’m also not a huge fan of the expected goal stat).
JP could be a very good PK’er. KY is, and I think JP could be if he got a chance.
I mean, maybe JP has been on the pk in practice, and he is not good?
A little mystifying he hasn’t been tried in that role.
Does Jesse even want to be on the PK?
We don’t know if he has ever asked.
It’s not like he changes direction quickly. Somehow, I think that if he was suited for PK work, one of the coaches would have tried him there.
Exactly, Jesse’s skating style is not conducive to PKing, which is lots of starts and stops for the forwards, who have to chase the puck to the blueline, then stop quickly and turn back around to close up the box, or chase the puck out to the boards.
Also, when was the last time you saw Jesse block a shot?
5v5 play is about controlling the neutral zone and getting back defensively to support the defenseman … this Jesse does well.
You’re a smart man.
I wonder who the next whipping boy JP/Eberle etc. will be. Already looks like its Yams with Bouch in rotation. Nurse is established already as new Horcoff.
JP is 2 years younger than new hotness Vince and has alot of story left to tell imo. I think it’s a case of move on and he’ll be a 15G-40P guy for a decade. It isn’t worth 4th overall, but neither was Sam Bennett, and that only started working out last year. It is hopefully the last of the Yak, JP, vein of prospects that were told to be a star out the gate.
The best thing you can do with this is learn from it. I think the org has made great strides getting there with Woody at the helm. I give him and Keith Gretzky alot of credit for the huge improvement in Bakersfield.
Eberle had some pretty good success in Edmonton. He had a 30 goal 70 point season.
JP has failed to hit 40 points once and has played more with McDavid/Draisaitl than he’s played without them.
I don’t see the comparison and I would frankly be pretty surprised if Jesse went on to be a 40 point guy for a decade. I think its much more likely he’s out of the league in ten years, than scoring 40 points 10 years from now.
I don’t mind having Jesse on the team, but he’s overpaid for what he brings. We see that when he plays without star players on his line, he doesn’t produce a drop of offence. He doesn’t PK, he doesn’t really embrace the physical side of things.
If I had the choice between Jess or prime Raffi Torres going into the playoffs this year I take Torres, and I don’t think its that close.
The comparison was to whipping boy status, not actual value.
Perhaps you were lucky to miss the muffin shot dust it off soft verbal about Jordan while he scored 20 per season with some horrawful teams.
To your point about 97/29, I agree it’s no excuse not to produce, but Crosby had linemates too that didn’t work that still helped them win Stanley. Not to mention the fairly open verbal that they don’t like playing with him.
If I go back to my comparison about Bennett, he was traded to Florida same age as Jesse and the next season scored 49 points, which was his first time over 40.
Love Raffi, never was a whipping boy cause he was doing the whipping.
Is Jesse even helping? He doesn’t score. His fans claim he is elite defensively, but his coaches don’t use him that way whatsoever. No PK, no tough matchups, no defending the 6 on 5.
Raffi Torres was a high pick as well. 5th overall. He didn’t become a star, but he found a niche and owned it.
Jesse still hasn’t figured out who he is as a player. Seems like he realizes now that he isn’t a scorer and is trying to reinvent himself as a physical player, but he lacks the temperament to succeed in that role IMO.
Bennett showed some serious flashes of skill, and he was legit buried on the 3rd line. Jesse has been give multiple extended auditions on the first line. I don’t see it with Jesse. Maybe he’ll go score 50 points somewhere else. Seems far fetched though.
Bennett scored 4 Goals in a game I believe. He also shows up big time in the Playoffs, I’m glad he’s gone.
I wouldn’t say he shows up big time in the Playoffs…. 27 points in 45 playoff games and 3 in 10 games last year.
You do relize Bennett brings a physicality in the playoffs that Coaches drool over. I remember this one time we were dead in the water against San Jose than Raffi Torres changed the series in a instant when he plastered I think it was Michalek at Centre ice.
So physicality and low points = shows up big time…. got it!
How is a guy that leads the team in hits not embracing of the physical side? lol
The one that I hear way too often is not that Nurse is overpaid, but many people actually believe he is a bad player. The jump is pretty incredible.
Nurse is king for the cost efficiency crowd (trade him! They say). Yamo has “try” but is too small (trade him!).
I think the new JP is destined to be Evan Bouchard (unless he gets real steady real quick). He fits the mould of those who look at talents and are frustrated he isn’t exactly as good as someone else with comparable talents. And he fits the style pattern for Tom Poti syndrome, like so many others. I sincerely hope not, but Edmonton media/fans are like a lion: they only eat what they kill, and they only take down enough to know where their next meal is coming from. (Hope that’s not too graphic for anyone.)
Jesse helps in the defensive zone and moving the puck in a good direction. I think both the advanced stats and eye test support this. However, with the puck on his stick he has limited skill level and hockey IQ (this is likely driven partially by a lack of confidence, impacting his ability to make plays). He has not put up big counting stats at any level of hockey, other than the ultimate in small samples world juniors. Per Gregor he appears to have a good work ethic in practice, games and in the gym but he indicated he doesn’t appear to put in the work on his puck skills. If I were in Jesse’s inner circle this is where I would be urging him to dedicate his time and effort this off-season. Any inability to get traction on this team since Holland arrived is now fully on the player and not the team. They may have effed it up earlier in his career but how long can that be used as a crutch when he’s had a lot of opportunity with the skill C’s over the past 3 years and still not produced at a top 6 rate consistently.
I think that’s the deal with Jesse. He’s very good defensively, but can’t score and is a poor playmaker. So he helps get and keep the puck in the offensive zone, but is no help once it is there. McDavid and Draisatl get frustrated with him as he doesn’t have the finish or vision offensively.
Lots of talk about the need for a 2LHD at the trade deadline – I don’t see that as the play.
Kulak was signed to be the steady 3LHD or 3RHD at a reasonable price. His role was to be able to tread water until Broberg arrives.
I keep wonder why bring Desharnais up now? Nemo is the same but on the left side.
I think it is to get Ceci 2RHD to help Broberg and then split 1RHD between Bouchard and the giant.
20 games to see if that will work.
Ceci would hurt Broberg, not help. Bouchard helps Broberg transition to the NHL far more than Ceci ever would. Broberg goes and retrieves the puck, and Bouchard means Broberg always has an option to get the puck out. If Broberg gets the puck, the outlet to Bouchard, if nothing else is available will almost always get the puck out. An outlet to Ceci is much less of a guarantee to getting the puck out. Broberg with Bouchard means Bouchard has to do less retrieving and battling. They are a near ideal match for each other as an outscoring D pair.
Bouchard should not play against the toughest opposition. He doesn’t defend well enough. So putting him with Nurse is a terrible idea. Desharnais with Nurse is a great idea.
Bouchard is an outscorer, not a defender. Outscorers should be deployed tactically to give the line they are playing with the advantage.
This is perfect
Bouchard and Broberg. Bo Bo.
They seem like a perfect match and as they get a little more man strength and little meaner they’ll be a force together.
I remember a BoBo serving us well on D in the past.
If you piss off Bobo you get the Orange treatment.
The baseball analogy for math doesn’t do much for me. And I have played and watched both extensively throughout my life. I love baseball for the shear skill players exhibit in executing catches, throws, pitches and hits. Baseball is much more a sport where a number of individuals are required to execute their position on an individual basis. The team work is almost entirely scripted. The complexity of decision making and the number and importance of the variables that each baseball player needs to consider on a constant basis are dwarfed by the complexity of decision making and variables that influence a hockey player’s decisions.
Analytics is becoming more important in hockey, and I am for that, but it has a long way to go and I doubt it will ever get to the baseball level which also keeps advancing. But I think the idea that people are either math people or qualitative people is plain false and the idea that only math is ever right for hockey is false as well. Some of us value both, and for a lot of things in hockey math tells an incomplete picture. Don’t get me wrong, the math in hockey that is absolute is wins and losses, followed closely by goals for and against since that, and only that ultimately determines definitively who won and who lost. But after that, the precision of the rest of the math that leads to goals for and against starts dropping significantly when trying to evaluate a single player, particularly if it based on the current publicly available data. It needs to be heavily supplemented with the observations of knowledgeable hockey coaches and scouts.
With Jesse, I agree the overall math thus far would seem to be consistent with a 3rd line player. Except most of the math that supports it comes from him playing in the top 6 obtained over fairly brief stretches. An NHL team can have a top 6 winger go through scoring slumps, but a contending team can’t have a player in its top 6 that goes close to a calendar year with little production (7 goals and 21 EVP in his last 82 games) with the majority of his time (>60% with Connor and/or Leon).
The frustrating part with Jesse is he probably has the tools to be a top 6 player if not a top line player. Even if you argue he lacks hockey IQ (and I am not – evidence on this for the viewing public is only circumstantial, not definitive), I think his other tools should more than make up for it anyway. And he has certainly showed stretches where he plays like a player that belongs in the top 6 on a good NHL team.
Indications are, from Jesse’s camp, that he really wants to be a top 6 player and wouldn’t be happy to be kept by the Oilers as a bottom 6 player. However, no matter how the the circumstances unfolded to get to where we are today (Oiler’s fault, Jesse’s fault or, more realistically, some of the both), it seems clear, at least from the outside, he is playing with little to no confidence, and so far neither he nor the Oilers have figured out a way to remedy it. If his mental make up is such that he is just not going to find that confidence to play free and easy with the Oilers, then the Oilers and he need to part company in the most beneficial way possible. Maybe with a fresh start he can get that confidence back.
I was glad the Oiler’s were able to draft him, and have been pulling for him his entire career. I was happy when Holland was able to bring him back into the fold. I was excited when he came out of the gates strong last season. But the last calendar year has been disappointing. So unless a game or two in the press box, giving him both the benefit of watching the game from above and metaphorical kick in the pants, spurs him to recapture his mojo that has been too infrequent over his 304 games with the team, I am afraid the Oilers will probably move on from him soon for what will likely be perceived as an unfavorable return. But hey, this wouldn’t be the first time it was assumed that Jesse was on his way out, yet here he still is. He is an Oiler till he isn’t.
I always appreciate your take on things as it aligns well with my own. The best case scenario here is another player who needs a change of scenery as well, hopefully with a lower salary!
Perfectly summarized. Not a word out of place.
Loved your comparison of hockey analytics to baseball analytics.
you are an excellent poster
well done Redbird!
Could be out to lunch here, which is why I’m asking, but but didn’t Mr. James also suggest it’s best to weight the prior three seasons with most emphasis on the previous? Something like 50:30:20 if I recall correctly?
Is that what you’ve done in this case, or is it a cumulative weighting?
I so wanted to be wrong when that lanky teenager was doing crossover drills instead of forechcking. Alas.
I think one of the ongoing issues with the online advanced stat community is how the stats are named and described. Using names like Corsi and Fenwick, and long acronyms like HDCF% make the stats inaccessible to the masses. It takes time to understand what those stats actually are, and most aren’t going to take the time to do that. They read the Spector fluff piece and move on.
If advanced stats go mainstream, they need more common names. Corsi becomes Shot Attempts (the NHL already labels them like this). I saw in the broadcast on Saturday they highlighted Slot Shots – while it’s different from HDSC it’s much more understandable to the everyday fan. Does it describe the same thing? I’d be curious to see how those two aligned. I’d also be lying if I said I knew the criteria that creates a HDSC, but slot shot – I can take an educated guess.
I also think possession and O zone possession is a better indicator of how the game has gone than shot attempts. If you could see slot shots / minute of possession it would tell you how effective teams are at converting their possessions into opportunities. Zone entrance and Exit are understandable stats too.
I don’t think the media is running JP out of town. They are a mouthpiece for the org and this call is coming from inside the house. For a majority of fans, they read and agree with these articles. For a small minority; they dig in deeper and critique the narrative. But until
that critique becomes understandable to a non stats NHL fan, it’s not going to affect the outcomes. You’d hope that NHL teams are doing this themselves, but they may also be looking at better Sportlogic stats that paint a different story.
In my opinion, JP has been an ineffective player this year, up and down the lineup. He’s had the odd good night but all the players are in that boat, it’s a low bar. Some of the stats that are in his favour might just show that when he gets his ops- he squanders them. Klim Kostin’s emergence has reduced his ice time – he really is playing in the same spots as JP did now. JP just hasn’t meshed and it’s time to move on. Just not sure how they get out from under that contract.
I don’t know how you look at Spector’s articles since Puljujarvi arrived here and think he isn’t biased against Jesse.
Spector has no bias or opinion. All he does is write articles that feed on the fans opinion at the time. He cares about getting views and attention more than journalism. If he thinks JP hate articles generate views/attention he will write them. His articles/opinion are an absolute roller coaster ride this season. From the team is absolute shit to his recent “the team is gelling” articles.
This is popcorn media for the casual fan. Spector knows who butters his bread, and doesn’t give a shit if anyone calls him out on speaking out of both sides of his mouth. It’s his job.
LT is like an oasis in the hockey “journalism” world.
Jesse and his agent poisoned the well with a segment of the fanbase with his reluctance to come across the pond or play in the minors. There were ‘leaks’ of a side deal with Chiarelli guaranteeing Jesse’s opps with the big club. Fair or not, that kind of entitlement is never going to play favourably with the old school element of the fanbase that was weaned on being a good soldier and paying your dues.
I’d be very interested to see the demographic split on the support of this player. I would suspect a majority of the detractors are older and the supporters dataset skews younger.
Puljujarvi wanted to play in Europe in his draft+1 because he and his agent didn’t think he was ready. The Oiler convinced them that Jesse was ready and bribed him with promises and then failed to live up to the spirit of those promises.
After being drafted, Jesse is under no obligation to sign a contract with the Edmonton Oilers on any timeline. The Oilers hold his NHL/AHL playing rights, but otherwise he can stay in Finland or play anywhere else in the world with whoever will sign him.
Lets suppose Jesse, with his agent, says he would, at 18, rather stay in Finland for a year or more to develop rather than go play in Bakersfield with the AHL team. He probably gets paid similarly either way, maybe more in Finland, but he’d be more comfortable waiting a year or two before coming over.
The Oiler meanwhile, possibly actually believed Jesse has a decent shot to play for the NHL team. After all, he dominated the World Juniors, and has the size and speed to play with men and lots of top 5 picks go right to the NHL. Chiarelli also sent away Hall and needed scoring wingers at the NHL level.
I would guess it was the OIlers who really wanted Jesse to come and it is not unreasonable for Jesse to worry that he would just end up in the AHL, when he would have rather played in Finland for that year. It would be a bit of a bait and switch for Jesse to agree to come under those circumstances only to end up in the minors for the year.
If the Oilers agreed to or at least committed verbally that Jesse would get a lot of time to try to make the NHL team it was because they wanted him to come over under those circumstances. If that is what was done, clearly in higdsight the Oilers should have let him stay in Europe, like most of his peers do after being drafted. Very few teenage Europeans ever play in the AHL.
We can fault Jesse somewhat for signing the contract, but the lure of close to $1 million vs a Finish salary is pretty hard to turn down. He ended up making ~$540,000 that season.
The point is these circumstances are all complex with a lot going on. Without having all the facts, it is unfair to attack Jesse’ character by claiming his behavior was entitled.
Hence why I said “fair or not”…
That’s an indictment of the fans then, not Jesse.
Didn’t you challenge a kid to a fight on here and then no show?? I’m not sure what era you’re from but it certainly can’t be the one you’re referring to in your post
Woodcroft gives Yamamoto the benefit of the doubt. Woodcroft never gives Jesse the benefit of the doubt. Legacy of the first time around…the rupture from the first time when McLellan was (emotionally) abusive (IMHO) towards a teenager remains.
Free Jesse.
On what do you base your “Woodcroft never gives him the benefit of the doubt”? Since Woodcroft has been here, Jesse has played 493 minutes with McDavid and/or Draisaitl and 359 without. During that same time span, Yamamoto has played 568 out of 870 total minutes with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. A total of 70 extra minutes over that time period. And the thing is the team gets very positive results when Yamamoto plays with McDavid or Draisaitl. The team is under water on ice since Woodcroft arrived with Jesse and Draisailt on the ice together without McDavid (7gf, 8ga).
Woodcroft start Jesse on the first line with McDavid for the first 5 games of the playoffs, and the primary reason he was taken off that line was because Leon needed to move up and play the right side because of playing hurt. The results with McDavid Draisaiitl were much better with either Hyman or Kane on the other wing than they were with either Yamamoto or Jesse (and all 4 combos were tried), because even though in the past Draisaitl has been effective on either wing with McDavid, it seems the limitations of his injury made playing the right side work better.
He’s not a prisoner. He’s a young adult making more than 99.99% of the population to be a professional athlete. And yes, that involves handling criticisms from others and competing for ice time. Also, life isn’t fair. You name me a workplace where all employees are treated equally. I have empathy for that situation, but an employee in that situation can show more resiliency, they can accept their fate, or they can complete their contractual obligations while seeking new employment.
I don’t get the narrative from the analytics crowd. The Oilers will give away Jesse for nothing and even have to sweeten the pot to move him. Holland is a bonehead.
If he really is that good wouldn’t teams be lining up to get him? Especially teams with great analytics departments Toronto etc. Seems all I read is Jesse has negative value. Strange days indeed.
He makes 3 million dollars and most of the league is capped out.
There’s an element of pride involved imo. If someone’s consistently invested them-self in the narrative that a player is going to ‘pop’ eventually and when he does, boy will the doubters have to eat crow, then their options when the player is ultimately revealed to be a bust are, A) they have to admit their prognostications were wrong and trot out their mea culpa, or B) go radio silence and pretend their prediction never happed or C) double down on the denial and claim the player is still going to ‘pop’ with another team and the lack of development is all the fault of the Oilers.
People wonder why human discourse has become increasingly polarized and siloed. To me, one of the most obvious explanations is that most humans simply don’t like to admit it when they’re wrong. And the beauty of the anonymous transient communication model of the Internet is people simply never have to admit this. They can continue to live happily ever after self selecting the information that best matches their own biases and worldview. Inconvenient facts need not apply.
If you are a team who values a player for reasons they dont value (let’s call that analytics), why would you blow your cover and pay full price for the player by lining up to the door?
Wasn’t the original point of analytics to get a competitive edge and get undervalued players for less than full price in a cap world?
There’s the identifying part of the deal and the negotiating part of the deal. In this instance, if I’m a GM who knows the player isn’t staying next year, is unhappy (citation needed), is in a tough role, or has fallen through the cracks, and THEN i know the team he’s on needs to move his contract or risk losing players/assets they value more, why on earth would i provide anything but the bare minimum or less?
I’m not sure you can do a Kenny dupe because the player isn’t a 1st ballot hall of famer in the record book.
This logic only works if you are the only person that knows. If 10 organizations value the player eventually they will have to realize that they aren’t the only ones. Then it is simple supply and demand. If what JP brings is as useful as the analytics community believes then the demand should be high and there is only 1 JP!
If there is no demand then very few teams value what he brings at his price point.
Your logic assumes i haven’t spoken to and assessed the needs of my competitors. It really isn’t simply supply and demand when you put current and future organizational needs into perspective. Timing skews value.
I think we agree their isn’t much demand for the player at his price point. I would suggest at 1.5M several teams would be interested. With a sweetener, the pool grows. This is not necessarily a single asset in single asset out type deal.
If his contract was 1.5m we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation, as the main reason to move Jesse is to free up cap space using an asset that is paid more than he contributes.
Your argument about timing and needs are just different reasons why the demand may not be there. So the argument comes back to only one or two teams being interested in the here and now. If this is the truth then most teams must not be overly enamored with his fancies.
If someone such as Hyman came on to the market teams would find a way to make space even if he wasn’t exactly what they were searching for at the moment, because teams value what he brings (hence demand).
This is the kind of garbage that drives you half crazy when times are hardest.
To be fair, we’ve come a long way from this spam being a Nigerian prince in exile.
I don’t know. Sounds like Carol has got it figured out. 😉
@DhaliwalSports
“One team I have been told that has been consistent in the pursuit of Horvat is Seattle..”
Francis knows the importance of a number 1 Centre who’s peak time is now. I would take Horvat over Huberdeau any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Treliving panicked he could of used a stop gap player instead of signing Huberdont to that albatross deal.
Treliving/dying is to the Flames what KLowe used to be for the Oilers.
Treviling’s offer to Huberdeau makes any Oilers contract look like JP Morgan negotiated it.
That would be a good pickup if it comes with extension at not too ridiculous a number.
Seattle is an intriguing potential destination.
With Matty Beniers locked in at 1C I wonder if they might be willing to move Shane Wright in a Horvat deal.
The Kraken also have 11 picks in the upcoming draft so plenty of trade ammunition there.
Only if they’re stupid.
As a bandwagon Seattle fan I hope not.
As an Oilers fan I hope so.
Not all teams are interested in Infini Builds.
Breaking in Shane Wright at 3C or wing and having cover for Beniers at 1C is a smarter play. No way they move Wright in this deal.
Just wait and see where Seattle is at the deadline too, things can change. You can sign Horvat for nothing this summer, is this Seattles year? Does trading for him mid season give them an inside track to sit him?
I can’t get over how badly Vancouver fucked this up.
A horvat added for playoff run in a year where every team in conference seems beatable in a series is worth a lot.
A signed horvat prior to competing in open market is also worth a lot.
Without extension, sure I’d probably keep Wright. But imagine any deal Francis might he considering includes that for good reason
Oh that’s interesting concept.
Definitely Shiney enough to reduce remaining package needed significantly. Canucks would surely jump right there.
It’s a good fit both ways in a lot of ways for everyone not named Shane Wright.
Burkovsky for 5 years
Schwartz for 4 years
Mcann for 5 years
Olesiak 4 years
Bjorkstrand 4 years
Gourde 4 years
Larsson 3 years
Dunn up for likely long extension
They definitely don’t need to wait on finding out if Wright works if they found the right replacement.
I like that deal.
Just need a goalie, some pk adept bottom 6’ers to be taken serious in playoffs!
But he wants to play with Connor. They even made a commercial together.
Not sure how that would work.
His next contract is expected to start with an 8.
$9.15 Mil per year
Last night’s comeuppance should embolden the Kraken to find some help.
But Horvat will have options and he may actually want to go deep in the playoffs. I’m guessing he lands out east.
Going deep in the playoffs could well be easier in the west.
Boston, Carolina, Toronto, Tampa and even New Jersey looks like murderer’s row to me.
There has been some chatter that Boston Carolina are interested so perhaps one of those.
Exactement.
Carolina balking at the price.
https://canucksarmy.com/news/report-canucks-hurricanes-talked-bo-horvat-trade-price-steep-carolina
The only thing we know for sure is that Vancouver will get taken to the cleaners on this trade. What a tragically run organization.
Jesse is a healthy scratch on a team deploying an 11-7 roster. Everyone is pack your bags son.
Just some simple questions;
1.How does anyone know what Jesse will sign for next year?
2.If we subtract Jesse, do we get someone better for the play-off run?
3.Wasn’t Jesse subtracted last night because Bouchard and Barrie are bad PKers?
4.Why is NOW the best time to fire sale him?
5.Hasn’t Holland has been clear he is not giving him away.
Unless they qualify him he won’t sign here again.
Somewhere else I’m sure he’d sign a 1 year for cheaper.
How do you know this?
Common sense?
They’ve asked for a trade how many times?
hmmm
If he doesn’t get QO from the Oilers , but they offer $1.75M and the rest of the teams offer $1M ish – wouldn’t it be common sense he sign back with the Oilers?
No. He should go somewhere where he will be appreciated for what he is, not scorned for what he isn’t.
How do you know the oilers would be willing to offer him almost twice as much as the “rest of the teams”?
I can’t believe you started this implying conjecture on my part – then followed with that.
For what it’s worth:
For 1 year 750k – if I were jesse or his agent I would take lower from a team that appeared like there may be a better opportunity. I’d gamble on reset paying more in long run.
You make way too much sense:)
He’s an expensive, non producing former prospect who’s developed himself into a 25 year old cap liability.
The Russian recently acquired from St Louis is everything JP was advertised as becoming.
Time to cut bait. Boston Bruins dumped Joe Thornton/Tyler Seguin ffs.
Well Kostin is scoring at a 24% shooting average so far this year. Once that regresses to 10% ish he won’t look so shiny.
Free Jesse.
Carolina are Columbus both with the Finnish connection is my prediction. I bet he’ll find a niche and be productive player for the next 5/6 years.
The Finnish-born GM in Columbus passed on Jesse for Dubois… it would be comical if he ended up outsourcing JP’s development to the Oilers!
Laine and J.P reunite.
Dallas has 5 Finns in its system.
Dallas is actually a very intriguing option … a straight up hockey deal of Jesse for Gurianov; both teams get to test drive the other team’s struggling winger before deciding whether to re-up in the summer or cut bait.
RE the wailing and wringing of hands over Puljujarvi’s healthy scratch.
“Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.”
idk why everyone thinks harpers hair is the worst poster here. He’s entertaining at least.
Just goes to show there’s no accounting for taste.
He’s quoting Macbeth. And quite aptly too. If that’s not entertaining, I don’t know what is.
Some folks hate Shakespeare with the heat of a thousand suns. My wife included!
Maybe this will change her (or any other hater’s) mind. One of the most brilliant comedy sketches ever, IMO.
Say what you will, Shakespeare’s writings have had an incalculable influence on modern English (and not just the band known for “I Melt With You”).
Good stuff. I wasn’t cultured enough to appreciate W&S back in the day. John Byner’s Bizarre was more my speed. He had Super Dave and the odd splash of T&A!
LT just mentioned Andy Sutton.
By the rules of this place – I must now mention that not only was Andy Sutton terrible, but he would duck real tough guys. A giant, yes. But also a giant plug.
Tried to post a YouTube link to the Oilers-Thrashers brawl – which is exhibit A – but the post got blocked.
Go check it out for an entertaining retro moment and proof of Andy Sutton’s style.
So, you’re an expert?
Mainly just fulfilling one of my functions around here as whenever LT waxes poetically about Mr. Sutton or Jim Dowd or a number of other wildly mediocre players (either on the blog or on the radio if I happen to catch it), it wouldn’t be right if I didn’t give him a tough time for it.
But hey – if that makes me an expert…sure. Why not?
Though I may also be missing a running gag…
My enduring memory of that night (other than Bishai fighting from the Atlanta bench) was Ray Ferraro ripping on Andy Sutton for ducking Georges Laraque and choosing instead to go with Eric Brewer.
Yup.
I was there. So entertaining. People forget that the game was a shit-kicking both on the scoreboard and in the alley.
Also odd to think about how, awkwardness and opposing players aside, it would actually be easier to be throwing punches from the bench.
Vincent Desharnais,10 year vet.
Didn’t Chiarelli pick him up in that deadline deal back in 2017?
Coffey yesterday, Messier today.
Again, won’t post the whole thing but what a quote from Peplinski:
https://theathletic.com/4084829/2023/01/18/nhl99-mark-messier/
“He thought he was on a mission and I thought I was playing a game,” says Peplinski. “He was not just playing a game.”
Peplinski took so many lefts from Southpaw Kevin McClelland he was begging for a right.
I often think about how valuable a modern Kevin McClelland would be for this team.
The Goal he scored on the Island was probably top 3 if not the most important Goal in the Oilers Franchise.
What an I missing here? I thought JP was being traded because of his $3 mill cap hit and the fact he has arb rights next year. We can’t sign him for that and there’s no way he’s staying here at a lower number.
You’re not missing anything.
As fans, we get attached to certain players. We then go looking for validation (e.g. seen him good, the fancy numbers) to support that investment.
The same things were said about MA Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, Magnus Paajarvi despite mounting evidence that these players were not going to meet the expectations of their draft position. All of these players were out of the NHL in a few years after they were traded from the Oilers.
LT’s not wrong … the MSM will probably try to spin a narrative that favours the organization when JP is dealt. But the Jesse critics are not wrong either … the organization gave this kid every chance to succeed. The fact that he didn’t is squarely on the player (and not because the organization they didn’t get him English lessons as a kid).
Good post. The other item that concerns me in the narratives about Puljujarvi is that it used to be that the fancies (ie the underlying numbers) had to roll up to the boxcars (ie the primary numbers) as the final acid test. Now people are pleading defences for players based on soft metrics alone. That doesn’t pass the smell test imo. As you say, it’s more a case of fans looking for validation to support their emotional investment.
The only area where the Oilers failed JP imo is the cultural and language assimilation. I just read an excellent book about the Yankees called ‘Inside the Empire’ and they invest massive resources to teach their foreign prospects English alongside the nuances of the game itself. With both Yakupov and Puljujarvi busting, the Oilers either need to avoid this player type entirely or invest in resources to better address the intellectual performance training side of the equation. The Oilers have underrated mental and emotional skills in their draft and development and that needs to improve.
The Oilers provided Jesse with an English tutor from day one. This has been reported multiple times over by various sources, local and international.
He’s not fluent in English so their approach didn’t work. Is that the player or the process? I’m of the opinion that not everyone can learn a second language. But I’m also not convinced the Oilers have the necessary infrastructure in place to vet these capabilities predraft or teach them postdraft. Yakupov had very similar challenges. These aren’t fringe player investments. They’re hugely valuable lottery picks. It would behoove the Oilers to get this right. If that means avoiding drafting players like this, so be it.
Esa Tikkanen spoke pigeon English which didn’t stop him from being a great Oiler.
Hockey was more freewheeling back then and Tikk had Kurri to translate.
There is so much system and assignment focus now, a player has to be extremely coachable and a quick study.
There’s a great body of work extolling the amount of resources the Oilers put toward JP for his tutoring. JP was born in Sweden, how’s his Swedish (actually asking, as I don’t know but find it relevant). Let’s not forget, almost everyone in Scandinavia learns English in school as a kid. Arrows point at JP over time.
You mention two prominent failures, JP and Yak, and fair enough. Those are big time busts, a 1OV and 4OV within four drafts is a gaping roster hole to have to ameliorate on the fly.
But I look around and see numerous other European players who manage just fine. Either on the Oilers, or elsewhere.
This tells me the failure was in pre-draft scouting on the character side, not the skill side.
The Oilers kept on finding new ways to undermine Jesse while keeping him bound to the organization. Tippett was the only guy who gave Jesse a fair shot and the benefit of the doubt.
Your refusal to assign Jesse any accountability is terribly one sided, don’t you think? Even if it’s on a spectrum where the Oilers are 80/20 at fault, surely the player has to accept some resonsibility for his own career?
How do you square this with the org giving him premium minutes and linemates time and time again? Hard to see that as ‘undermining.’
I think the facts are inconvenient to your argument.
Jesse was accountable. He went back to Europe and rejuvenated his joy for the game after having it crushed the first time around in Edmonton.
The Oilers however wouldn’t give him his liberty. So you are asking him to play with some ghosts (some of them animate human beings) of the abusive situation he toiled for 3 years during his ELC. And he played well enough to force the OIlers to give him a $3 million dollar contract, what an arbitrator would have determined as his market value for his two seasons of work in Oilers limbo after returning from Europe.
Holland keeps delaying doing the right thing for Jesse. “You guys claim it is me, but you won’t let me get a 2nd opinion.”
Besides the Arb rights, the problem, at least currently, is that while he is still an RFA, like last season, they would have to make him a qualifying offer (QO) to retain his rights otherwise he becomes a UFA and the Oilers get nothing. And the QO is equal to his current salary. So even if he would not get $3 million in arbitration (based on his play thus far this season), I can’t see that the Oilers would want to risk that he would sign the QO to stay with the team. Now maybe Jesse would do like Bear did with Carolina and sign an contract lower than the QO, making him more valuable either for the Oilers, or more tradeable for an actual asset, but I don’t know the Oilers would count on that now.
The Oilers may or may not prefer getting nothing for Jesse than if they have to give another asset just to trade Jesse by the deadline (which many believe is the case), but if they believe his value is well below his contract, they then still have the $3 million cap hit for the remainder of the season if they keep him. I don’t know if the Oilers currently believe that freeing up Jesse’s $3 million cap hit and whatever that may take achieve, is more valuable to them than Jesse still being a player on this team for the remainder of the season and possibly letting him walk (or he suddenly/perhaps unexpectedly finds his confidence, turns a corner and the Oilers are happy to deal with that outcome in the summer).
Apologies for not reading any of what you posted aside from a few words to catch it’s tone – this is the reason why Puljujarvi has to go … he’s simply not worth the hand wringing.
The cap space is becoming more valuable with the return of Kane. The good thing is, there are teams interested in Puljujarvi. Since Yamamoto is on LTIR, Holland has been afforded more time to find the right deal, if there is such a thing.
Wonderful! Now they can get rid of this failed 4th overall pick.
“Vincent Desharnais (picked up an assist, elbowed a guy in the brain part without knowing he did it, and blocked out the sun several times)”
Boy, did he ever. Reading his interview in the Sun, I loved the part where he talked about how he feels he thrives in shutdown situations. Some players I think get anxious in those late-game situations or on the PK – too much pressure. It was refreshing to read a rookie talk about how he looks forward to those challenges. He even talked about how the Vegas game he felt very comfortable because it was physical and chippy.
Small sample size of course, but maybe he is exactly what this team needed. It felt all year that the loss of Keith rocked the balance off the blue line, but Desharnais’ sudden emergence, mixed in with Broberg really blossoming, seems to have restored some of that balance. The 7 defensemen now each bringing a unique element that is helping them win games, not out of luck but through genuine out-playing of their opponents.
Last night’s lead felt comfortable at all times. Even the game against Vegas, I just didn’t feel that Vegas was going to tie it, the third felt comfortable. Definite progress, and LT you were absolutely bang on, patience with young blue liners does pay off!
What a feel good story Vincent has gone from College to ECHL then promoted to the AHL and now the N.H.L. I’m sure he’s not taking anything for granted and I imagine the first N.H.L paycheque he recieved or will recieve will make his eyes bulge out. This I believe is the benifit of promoting your Coaches through the system. Manson and Woody know exactly what Vinny is and what he’s capable of.
He looks great. And let’s not forget his is much older than a typical rook so there shouldn’t be a huge drop off.
Some people are wired for defence. The level of compete rises when faced with shutdown situations. They thrive on the battles and grind. It is as instinctive as sniping goals for others. Love it.
The Oil finally got a Donk!
I sure hope Woody goes with Captain Jack against Tampa not only is Campbell on a 4 game winning streak but he played his best game of the year against the Bolts back in November. Campbell is 13-8-1 thus far this year and 84-47-15 careerwise. Interestingly Skinner is 12-10-2 this year with a 19-16-2 career record.
For once, and it’s welcomed, the oilers got the better half of the reffing yesterday. It sure looks like they got away with a couple at the margin yesterday (trips) that are usually called . That doesn’t happen often, and I think they’d have won anyway, but what a refreshing sight.
both teams layed the lumber last night. it looked to me playoff style hockey
I’m just here for the Let It Bleed references. What a great record.
Such a great album.
With one of the greatest songs ever written!
For sentimental reasons it’s my favorite album of all time. My father and I reconnected on road trips to the hospital before he passed. We started every trip with this album. Amazing what kind of feelings music evokes.
You got the silver. Not that phony paper SLV junk. But real silver coins or bars. You can thank me later.
Can a goalie just equip himself with two blockers?
I tell ya, the way Campbell stares at his glove sometimes…. 🤪
Campbell seems to stare at his glove the way my wife stares at me in disbelief when I cant find something that is right in front of my nose
Yes! I was trying to finish the sentence with a metaphor, perfect!
Dan Blackburn, Rangers.
First, I’ve learned so much here over the years, so thank LT and all.
Second, I have a really dumb question today that I don’t think I’ve ever fully noticed before today. It’s the Summary for TOI. I assume this is at 5v5, and actually went over to NST for like the first time ever to see for myself. I see where you pull your data LT, cool.
My question, the TOI listed here (and on NST) does not amount anywhere near the entire game (60 minutes). I do understand penalties take away from the 5v5 numbers, and there’s some other shifts with the 11-7 deployment that are displayed on NST that aren’t included in the Summary here. There were 7 penalties taken by both teams last night, so we’ll say that’s 14 minutes unaccounted for 5v5 in full. By my very simple calculations (NST) all out forwards played ~32.5 minutes, add the penalties and that’s ~46.5 minutes. I don’t recall seeing Campbell playing 13 minutes by himself, so where are the other minutes? I assume LT isn’t watching the game with a stop watch and abacus.
The defense numbers are closer but they still don’t fully add up.
Thanks in advance for anyone who wants to help a math luddite out.
Cheers!
Hi Brantford Boy. These are in fact 5-on-5 numbers, but only the lines and pairings that play over two minutes together. There are lots of 56 second pairings and lines.
Great, that’s exactly what I thought (ie: 2 minutes), so thanks! I suspect with the 11-7 deployment there’s a mix mash of those <1 minute lines and defensive pairings. Cheers!
Yup. The media will drive another good player out of town. It’s just bull shit that these weasels have a soapbox at all. Not a one of them ever played professional sports but believe they have all the answers. By the way, can you imagine what they would be saying this morning if Schultz were still an Oiler and had blown up like that and the Oilers were scored on. Oh boy, Spector would be firing up the tar and feathers and pretending he knows shit about hockey. Let’s start a list: Salo, Horcoff, Arnott, Hall, Eberle, the list of quality players railroaded out of town by the useless press is amazing.
I want to downvote this because I disagree with the particular narrative offered here surrounding JP but not the general one surrounding Spector et al so…
JP is a good player but at a bad price.
BTW, I upvoted your comment!
We all remember the comment Arnott made but like Pronger I believe Sather was doing Arnott a solid just as Lowe had did for Pronger.
Petry.
MacT “challenged” Petry, while not having the simple understanding that Petry was set to be a UFA and therefore didn’t have to take any of MacT’s drivel.
Hardly a media matter – unless of course you lump Lowe+MacT with the Edmonton media and then you have a point, lol
Personally speaking, I think you overestimate the impact of sports reporters.
And Salo? Really? After the Belarus goal he was never the same. Getting Gilbert for him was a master stroke of asset management, if you ask me.
After Mike Comrie he was never the same……..
JP deserves a second chance elsewhere and best of luck to the player. New starts are sometimes needed. Don’t see us qualifying him and I think he’ll be happy to sign elsewhere
JP looks pretty certain to be out of the NHL sooner or later.
Or maybe he goes to Carolina and emerges as the second coming of Jari Kurri.
All players are certain to be out of the NHL under the later category. Now if you meant sooner rather than later, I get your viewpoint. Wouldn’t necessarily agree with it since there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the NHL future of this player, but I’d get it.
Jesse needs a better opportunity playing in the top 6 with better offensive players. He can’t just keep being expected to carry his line here in Edmonton….
Small sample size warning n all that, but the numbers since the players-only meeting on January 5th have some really encouraging bits!
Holloway leads the team with a 7-1 on-ice goal share and his glowing 73.1% xGF- and all this has come in just 69 mins!
The Brochard pairing is a sparkling 11-2 in on-ice goal share with an xGF of ~72%
Next up among Fs is the Nuge-Kostin duo who are 8-2 and 8-3 respectively (Janmark @ 5-3) and that lines as a whole is plugging along comfortably during this stretch (~51% xGF).
Hyman is absolutely killing it alongside one of or both of McDrai as he’s 10-3 w/ a 60.4% xGF.
McLeod is contributing very nicely is 6-3 w/ an xGF of 63.7%. I don’t see what others are seeing when they say they’ve been disappointed by him this year. He’s been every bit the 25-30pt 3C I expected him to be this year.
Only Ceci, Puljujarvi, and Niemo (very limited ice time) are below 50% in both GF and xGF.
Holloway worries me. The other teams just take run after run at him, and he’s not responding at all aside from getting hammered into the boards, the ice etc.
With respect, I don’t think that frames the issue around Jesse correctly. He’s making 3 million this year … would any GM in their right mind qualify him at that number this summer, after the season he’s had?
He’s gone this summer no matter what … he’s walked himself to UFA status, just not in the way that we all thought would happen. There’s been enough verbal from Jesse’s camp to indicate that he’s not enamoured with the Oilers enough to sign a team friendly deal this summer to stay.
So you have a pretty expensive asset (in terms of original draft position) that you’re about to lose for nothing in the summer, who is a fourth liner on this team when everyone is healthy on merit (the guys playing ahead of him have performed better).
If you can get an asset at the trade deadline for this player … either a player back who is better suited to that fourth line role (someone who PKs or a RHC) or a draft pick that can be used in another deal down the line … then make a deal. His status with the club is a distraction, it’s go time for this team in terms of chasing playoff glory, and the player himself deserves a chance to find a home in the NHL, before his agent sends him back to Finland for a higher payday than he’s going to get this summer from an NHL team if his season continues on its current trajectory.
For me, he’s Magnus Paajarvi 2.0 … a nice player on your third line, if he’s making 1.5 million a season. He doesn’t have the hands or the ability to process the game quickly enough to post crooked numbers higher up the batting order. But he’s big, fast, and defensively conscious and keeps the puck moving in the right direction when the offensively gifted players are taking a breather.
“you have a pretty expensive asset (in terms of original draft position) that you’re about to lose for nothing in the summer”
Zach Pochiro wasn’t exactly a sexy return for a first overall pick either
Pochiro was just a contract coming back. They also got a conditional 3rd round draft pick that turned into…Stuart Skinner.
At this point, Jesse is going to go for free in the summer. They may only be “magic bullets”, but getting anything at all for him at this point would advisable. The end return may end up being the same, nothing. Or you end up with your starting goalie for years to come.
At NHL minimum JP is a valuable potential piece in a cup winning team.
At 3 million JP is a liability to any team that has got to pay out for players of McDavid/Nurse/Draisaitl’s ilk.
Unless they need the space or return is way above what likely it would be:
Sometimes it’s okay to walk people to ufa when a team is a playoff team.
Totally agree as a general principle.
In this specific case:
A) The Oilers DO need the space for when Yamo comes back
B) We are talking about an important piece of a potential championship team that is likely to walk in free agency but there is no way to replace him for the current run if traded. Sadly, this does not describe JP
What a perfect description LT….pure gold.
About Campbell, “that glove of his looks like something that fell off of Gumby.”
Soup even changed his glove after that goal.Slow steps but he is definitely getting better.
Was at the game last night, nice to have a win in the middle of January and on a relatively warm winter night as well (makes the walk back to the vehicle after the game so much more worth it, win or lose). When that blooper went in on Jack Campbell, he gave that glove the stink eye, then changed gloves for the rest of the game. The puck seemed to do the same thing as the blooper earlier this season, get caught up in the webbing and somehow contort it’s way around and in.
I was a goalie growing up, and the glove was always the piece of equipment I felt took the longest to feel comfortable when breaking it in. His old glove looks to be laced loosely too, it may not have a gap in the webbing large enough for the puck to get through, but just loose enough to make the puck do funny things if it gets snagged (which it appeared to do). The new glove looked tighter and laced tighter, might have still been working it in in practice, and not wanting to go to it in game yet, but fate forced his hand on that one. He does have a great glove hand, but equipment seems to be getting in the way on that one.
Makes a lot of sense. I used to rely heavily on equipment similar to that.
Boy, the Oilers have bent over backwards, then bent again to get JP to where his draft pedigree predicted him to be. It hasn’t worked and, as a wise man once said (I paraphrase), forwards gotta score – it’s the hardest and most valuable thing.
May the math convince a trading partner to send something of value the Oilers way.
And, did the team miss him one iota last night? Nope, I saw a team that drove the net hard and cashed.
Rightly or wrong, you can make the same case for Yamamoto.
Yamamoto has done well so far in his career, but his miniature stature acts like an anvil around a freestyle swimmer’s neck.
Prospectory!
Another matchup betwixt Chiasson and Wanner, this time in the Bridge City. The Warriors prevailed at home 3-1 last night, with neither aforementioned player getting a point. Will they impact the scoresheet tonight? The answer to this and other questions will come when the puck drops at 6 p.m. Radway time.
You sir, have a Radway with words. Thanks for the updates.