The Edmonton Oilers are delivering on the promise that January’s schedule implied, and appear to be solving some roster issues at the same time. The winds of change are blowing, with names like Klim Kostin, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais arriving; Jesse Puljujarvi, Devin Shore and Ryan Murray exiting or being added to LTIR. We knew Ken Holland was looking to get bigger and faster players on the Oilers roster, but those bigger men have to be able to play. The bets made by Holland in the summer and fall are paying dividends now.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- New DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
- DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
- Lowetide: Oilers should consider obscure options as reinforcements
- Lowetide: Oilers winger Warren Foegele has been odd man out, so what’s next?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Should Oilers GM Ken Holland trade the 2023 first-round pick?
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Klim Kostin’s sudden impact, injury and immediate future
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen pursue final defence spot
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
- DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- January actual result: 5-2-1, 11 points in 8 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 25-18-3, 53 points in 46 games
A win tonight gets Edmonton to 55 points in 47 games, a 96-point trajectory and a likely playoff path. If we look at the rest of the January schedule, I have the Oilers going 3-1-0 from here. That would mean the team’s record at the end of January would be 28-19-3, 59 points in 50 games. That’s a 97-point trajectory. A big game tonight for the town team.
HOLLAND’S BETS
The bets by Ken Holland last summer have been much maligned, but the performances since December 1 (or later) the numbers are improving. Here’s a look at the current state of affairs.
- Jack Campbell was supposed to have over 60 percent of the starts and post a save percentage around .915. He has in fact started 46 percent and owns an .886 save percentage. Since December 15, the SP is .910. Absolutely not a complete recovery but a much better month from the veteran.
- Evander Kane was expected to score 35+ goals (I predicted 40) but his injury derailed that idea. Has five goals in 15 games so far, that’s a pace that would get him 25+ goals over a full season. I don’t believe anyone views him as a disappointment.
- Brett Kulak’s prediction was solid second-pairing play and his goal differential at five-on-five goal share (31-29, 52 percent) and 10 points in 46 games suggest a productive if flawed season in 2022-23.
- Mattias Janmark was expected to chip in some offense and deliver two-way play on a depth line, and he’s delivered and then some. I think it was a strong, and needed, signing.
- Ryan Murray was expected to perform in a 6-7D role, playing in perhaps half the games and breaking even in goal share. He was 5-9 (36 percent) when he hit LTIR. A disappointing season.
- Klim Kostin was expected to see some NHL action on recall. He has nine goals in 30 games. A strong addition to the team, albeit in a small sample.
Holland also counted on several rookies from Bakersfield to fill roles on the parent club in 2022-23. These names have struggled early nut are emerging now. Holland isn’t Dickie Betts, but these bets are looking better than opening night.
- Philip Broberg is emerging now as an actual NHL player, and the numbers are strong. At five-on-five, he owns a 57 percent shot share, is 62.5 percent goal differential and 61 percent expected goals. Holland has taken heavy criticism for selecting Broberg, and he was chosen early. If the big, strong and fast Swede can stay healthy and deliver strong two-way play (the offense will come) Holland’s first bet might be a key element to this team sooner than later.
- Stuart Skinner is already a key player and it isn’t hyperbole to suggest his performance in the first half of the season saved the day. Currently owns a .914 save percentage and is Edmonton’s best rookie goalie since Devan Dubnyk.
- Dylan Holloway was going to have to earn his way on to the team, and he did with some help from injuries to others. He didn’t play much in the first half of the season, but is taking on more chores and the numbers are solid plus improving. Currently at 1.52 pts-60 five-on-five, 51 percent shot share and 50 percent goal share in the discipline.
- Markus Niemelainen is back in Bakersfield (didn’t play last night) after a strong showing this season in Edmonton. He had a 48 percent shot share and 56 percent goal share in 23 games. I think he has an NHL future.
- Vincent Desharnais is an older rookie (26), so old in fact he doesn’t qualify as one in the NHL’s eyes. We say jack doodley to that and are counting him anyway. Just four games (all wins) into his NHL career, the Condor with the Condor wingspan has a shot share of 66 percent and a goal share of 75 percent five-on-five. He’ll regress but has been wildly effective in 10:29 a night in the discipline.
- James Hamblin’s first NHL look didn’t result in any goals or points, but he did have a 49 percent shot share, showing quickness and anticipation. I suspect we’ll see him again.
THE CONDORS ROOKIES
A big night for Carter Savoie last night, he scored his first pro hat-trick and now stands at 8-3-11 after 27 games. He was used sparingly at times in the first half of the year, really coming on now. Five goals in his last seven games. Xavier Bourgault picked up two assists and is now 9-9-18 in 35 games. He is 1-2-3 in his most recent three games.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’s a wild and busy day, TSN 1260 10-2. We’ll have live updates from the rink, talk NFL weekend and throw some MLB in there for good measure. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Great
Kuzmenko please!!!
Vancouver has $1.4M in cap space, Kuzmenko makes $950k.
We could trade Puljujjujjuarvi with $600k retained for Kuzmenko and gain the $1.4M in space for further deadline acquisitions…
What would folks here be willing to pay to sweeten this trade? I would throw in our 1st and a late round pick..
If Holland wants to make a deadline splash Detroit could be the partner.
Lots of cap (to retain/take back salary), and lots of pending UFAs of all qualities. Among them Larkin, Bertuzzi, Maatta, P. Suter, Ernie, Hagg.
Larkin at $6.1M has the largest price tag. The cap hit for Larkin + Maatta with 50% retained is a shade under $4.2M. What would that cost you?
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/redwings
I think Yzerman would have negative interest in parting with Larkin. He’s part of the rebuild. Detroit should start contending for the playoffs next season.
I bet he gets another 8 years at 7ish.
Could be, though extensions for pending UFAs are most often in place by this point. I’d also be surprised if Larkin’s next deal is only $7M AAV, whoever it’s with.
West:
DAL +14
SEA +13
WPG +13
VEG +12
MIN +10
LAK +9
EDM +8
COL +6
——-
CGY +5
NSH +3
STL +3
VAN -5
ARI -8
SJS -9
CHI -13
ANA -15
Oilers check in at #21 on The Athletic’s prospect pool ranking.
Don’t look now, but this team is going to win the division. Playing well and seem to have decided beating the bottom feeders is also a good idea.With an 8 game muffin parade for Kane to find his form, you can see why they felt confident to put KY on LTIR.
JP for Okposo at 50% retained. Sure if a better deal is out there you take it – but if this is as good as it gets – Okposo would be another big body RW and leader in the playoffs.
It was like a playoff game tonight. Both teams fired up. Oilers totally shrugged the refs BS off tonight and just played their game.
But tonight also reminded me what the playoffs are like … the refs swallow their whistles.
The Oilers need one more player (defence would be preferred, but a forward is fine too) who knows how to play that slightly over the edge dirty style ala Corey Perry. A vet that’s been through the wars, who still has that hunger, and gets away with the dirty stuff like Kucherov was tonight.
To me that’s more Toews than Kane, if we’re targeting someone from Chicago.
Agree with Staples on the post-game wrap-up with Bruce … Nuge was a beast in the third, and things turned around when Woody went away from throwing McDavid-Leon-Kane out there against Stamkos-Point-Kucherov, and matched Nuge against them instead. Having the ability to throw out a Nuge line and then a Toews line, would give Leon-Connor’s line more clean air. ROR (if he gets healthy) would also be a target for me.
I’m not sure there’s a Duncan Keith-like veteran on the trade market this year. I’m even more unsure that the Oilers need to make a trade for a D-man, though some insurance against a Nurse injury would be nice though.
Gotta say, I was wrong … this team has really turned it around in month of January. Tonight was the best I’ve seen this team play in a long time against a quality opponent. Hats off to Woodcroft and his coaching staff for righting the ship. Going back to 11-7 has helped and Holland made some nice moves from within the organization to bring up Desharnais and Broberg.
“…we wanted to win that game so we did”
-Zach Hyman
Legendary comment.
When this team learns to impose its will, at will, defending them will be like containing a colossus.
Ravishing Vince Rude has me eating everything I’ve said lately, which is amazing. 73 has Slats tuning in.
Wonder if Kenny’s eye is beginning to shift back to RW rental.. his quest to roll the Blackhawks cup core through the dressing room has only strengthen with the team’s recent play, he’ll be looking to reward and Kane would probably put a jetpack in Connor’s jetpack.
Kostin turned Maroon into a lifelong Flame this evening, Nuge has been playing alongside a brute Russian wizard.
I’d rather see what kuzmenko can do.
Easier to fit in cap. Likely lower cost in vacuum let alone offsetting Cap rental cost
If he fits well, likely fits into cap structure next season or two on estimated bridge deal.
I dont need another guy to stick handle in a phonebooth I need a trigger man that seems to be always near goal mouth in open ice with stick down.
https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/andrei-kuzmenko-player-highlights
Just flip through goals. Drai and McDavid would have a field day with him.
Kuzmenko would be a great add, too bad he didn’t pick us back in the spring/summer.
He’s a UFA though, and I think it’s been reported he’s looking for a $6M deal.
He didn’t pick the oilers but they were one of the last teams on his radar.
Nice to see the Oilers get the home record above .500 too!
Also a tip of the hat to patient leaders. I was getting so tired of Woodcroft talking about process and some good things through the first 35 games but his calm and patience seems warranted now. Holland too. I might have traded both Bouch and Broberg for Chycrun 10 games ago. Sure am glad I’m not in charge!!
Jay Evens has pulled out the FAFO card.
🙂
Thank god I am not the GM or coach.
LOL Highlight pic of the game:
Seeing Kostin headed to the penalty box where a grinning Kane and Nurse await.
Definitely a highlight of the year for me, the smiles coming from the penalty box. Maroon watching from ice level while tasting his own defeated blood and tears. Truly a top team moment that this squad has produced.. So far.
That was absolutely hilarious when Klim was sitting down for a bath from Kane and his water bottle.
Just rewatched the highlights. My fave is Desharniers at the end clearing two guys from the front of our net. Like swatting flies. I don’t remember an Oiler d being able to do that without pushing them into our netminder for a loooooong time!
Just what the doctor ordered!
Yup and the bonus is getting points from simple smart shots.. just getting them through and off quickly. Nothing pretty about Vinny’s game but beautiful add to this team!!
Suddenly all 3 Pacific teams ahead of us seem catchable!
New Jersey ties it up late at Seattle
And lose quickly in ot 👎
VGK lost & LAK are going to lose so all in all
Yuge Knightown!
Are these numbers real? NST has Bouch and Bro as 22-3 (88%) and 19-3 (90%) in CF%
Real & Spectacular
Limited time against the TBL big boys but they simply clobbered the rest.
They are in a good spot where they are. Smart coaching to keep them against soft parade- they’re killing it.
Tonight was another perfect example of why the NHL is simply a bush league. The Lightning had absolutely no business getting away with the garbage they pulled. Both referees should never ref again!!
ha ha its the Bush League part that keeps me watching the games.
The fact that the Oilers stood up to the abuse then dominated throughout most of the game makes everything worth it about whatever those 2 time Bolts can stand.
Had they lost though you probably would be stating the same thing. Tampa is an absolute dirty team.
They are, I wish the Oil would take a page out of that book
No way… Tampa’s behavior tonight was completely embarrassing. I could never cheer for a team that act likes that.
You’re right, i could never cheer for a Championship team like Tampa,
bunch of losers if you ask me
I used to wonder what the opposition used to think about playing against Mark Messier.
Pretty consistently crappy reffing. Not exclusive to these two tonight.
True, but tonight was absolutely a joke!!
Guess Kucherov gets a free pass.
Someone should just deck that guy hard
I’m advocating for the great Karen War of 2023, Bobby Nick should be sitting in one of his burger booths furiously sending off sternly worded complaints in email format to every other old white in the NHL offices, players union, and refs union. He should also challenge them to a Karen Barn Fight.
Great Karen War, 2023.
Refs are unionized?
Typical.
The Lightning are like spoiled children who are used to getting their way. Maybe that’s what success does to you?
They were off tonight, is all. Tampa are a first class team that can beat Edmonton at least 2X in a 7 game series.
What would Corey say?
Statement Win. Seeing Tampa yelling their heads off threatening the Oilers at the end of the game was worth the price of admission.
Oilers now an excellent 7-3-1 in the Hunter1909 30 game season within a Season
Suddenly the Oilers have some team toughness as well that seemed completely missing only 10 games ago. Adding Klim, Kane coming back and big Vinny.. even Broberg has size on the backend. That was a physical game and Oilers did opposite of wilt as they have in past. Mcdavid and Drai are not stones alone in this turnaround. This is sustainable winning model!
Oilers took the game to Tampa and thoroughly beat them down.
Tampa tried many ways to change Oil game plan. Dirty play, top line scored some big ones, whine… Oilers stayed within themselves and punched this Tampa team right in the mouth!
Forgot to mention goalering! Both goalies not needing to steal any games but play well enough for everyone else to be able to focus on their own job. Trust in each other is very clear now! From crease out.
Part of what had Tampa agitated was Big Vinnie hammering them into the boards. Three times where you couldn’t really see it on TV but he hammered them. That’s when Maroon went after McDavid.
And where did that get them?
It eventually got them back in the game 3-3
This game was so great.
It really was, especially the result
You folks ever go watch the highlights of a game immediately after watching the whole thing?
I’m too busy heading off to see the CP reaction.
At present, the thought that Flames have the WORST contract in the NHL with “ghost” Huberdeau is bloody hilarious.
Also, the full slow realisation that Johnny Hockey and Tkachuk basically bailed out has got to be the worst of the worst lol
The fact both Johnny regular season hockey and turtle are now likely cheering on lottery balls in summer is even better.
every time we win. . .
The win is awesome but it’s How we won that makes me happiest!
We went through the fire and are stronger for it!
That third period showed a team that has learned to play the difficult game. Worked hard. Worked smart. Let the other team make the mistakes.
McDavid made some mistakes that cost us but found his game(both ways) and does what leaders do!
This game will stamp all those lessons this team learned into their collective psyche.
From here, We FLY!!!!
What amazes me, that arm didn’t go up as Hyman is hooked and slashed trying to get open for that EN
That may have been the most egregious missed call of the night and there were a dozen
As Louie would say, “No question”.
…to give Hyman two for embellishment? 😛
I was laughing about that hard. The replay where both refs clearly square in front…. no arm. Look at my buddy and said “if he missed that and Tampa won: that would be so insane. This league is garbage.”
Kings and Knights both trailing!!
Just need NJD to get in gear.
Great game, great effort to retake the leading the 3rd.
McDavid just took that lead. He would not be denied there.
The Oilers did the best thing they could against the whiney lightening – win.
Entitlement that comes off 2 recent cup wins.
Oilers aren’t really supposed to be able to play that well either, according to the internet.
Top 10 regular season non-BOA Oiler games of the McDavid era? That had everything. Everything.
Legendary.
Reminded me of games of my youth, where there was hate, grudges and an expectation of physicality from everyone.
My abiding memory of the dynasty Oilers is fear. The opposition were freaking terrified to give up 5 goals in the 1st period lol
A game that should be watched by anyone interested in seeing real hockey played the way it’s supposed to be played.
If you don’t want to get hit with the puck at the end of a game, get out of the shooting lane? They think that’s Bouchard’s fault? They are going to have a tantrum about that too?
The refs gotta stop enabling those tantrums.
Up 2 with seconds left. I’d be pissed.
It’s a sport. It’s not like he’s rabidly jamming at the puck in the crease with 2 seconds to go. He just shoots the puck. Literally the point of the sport.
FukEm
Fuck those crybabies.
They took liberties all game long and were emboldened by the refs indecision.
Bouch should have hammered it into his junk or chicklets.
You show respect to a worthy opponent by giving them your best till the end. The Lightning wanted to quit early. That was the problem here, not Bouchard shooting the puck like he was playing an NHL game till the final whistle.
Oilers in their heads now. The rest of the NHL is going to see this game and wonder wtf just happened to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
What a great game. They responded in the 3rd.
That’s 3 in a row against top 10 teams in the league (including two Pacific teams they’re trying to reel in), and 5 straight overall. Also Campbell’s 6th W in a row.
Nice.
As happy as I am for Skinner, I’m even more happy to see Campbell find his game and take back the starter role. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Campbell go on a save percentage heater and bring his overall above .900 by the end of the year.
100%.
And as cliche as it is, they’re going to need both guys going forward.
5 straight.
And breaks a five-game win streak for TBL too. Serendipity.
That’s a strong win for this group against a team led by Corey Perry – assholes
One of the highlights of the game was Perry and Nurse, with Perry over his head dancing away until the refs came in.
Wasn’t over his head as much as in nurse’s head. He won that fight the minute he got both sets of gloves to drop. If you are perry why bother caring to risk taking an actual punch.
Same old shitty perry just wiser and older.
Good win for the Oilers. Solid 1st and 3rd periods.
Against a fairly hot Tampa Bay, no less.
Bouchard tried to hurt Nick Paul twice and it was wicked
Loved the killer instinct
Tampa really such a baby club. They run at our players all night, slew footing, elbowing etc. And Bouchard simply shoots the puck and thats somehow a disgusting, egregious move? This from the team that almost severed one of our players hands off? Fuck Tampa Bay. Fake fan Bettman club.
Have to love that the boys (Bouch specifically) gave them the respect they deserved at the end for the crap they pulled.
None.
The face that Bouchard gives at the end is so magnificent
Dallas putting the boots to LA in the 2nd.
The Wings tagging Vegas through two.
Come now Devils spot us a comeback against the Kraks.
“Why are you pounding the pill with a two goal lead at the end of the game?”
Because go f*%k yourself, that’s why. Helluva win.
Bouchard hammered two Bouch bombs into Paul’s shin pads and the latter, a first rate dumbass, took that personally.
That’s justice, served ice cold by Oakville’s finest!
I’d have been headhunting from that spot at the end of that game with the puck on my stick.
Take liberties? Eat puck.
i would love to have nick paul on the team tho. staying in lanes and selling out even when the game on the line is something you have to respect. deffo dont be a little whiner about it after the fact tho
Paul was pissed that Bouchard shot the puck on the power play? What a fuckin baby.
Almost looked like Bouchard was blasting it right at him. Twice!
Awesome.
4 shots in 18 mins in the 3rd for tampa, then hyms empty net.
Masterclass when it mattered.
Oh god please let that be a preview!!!
What a bunch of whiners. Stamkos making a mockery of it. Lost some respect for many on this team
I’d be completely embarrassed to be a Tampa fan RN…
“Ohhh yeah, said life goes on…long after the thrill of playing the Oilers is gone…”
Jon Cooper Mellencamp, upon getting swept by the Oilers
*swept so far (4 more to go)
That was a legit shit-kicking.
Beat them in the streets or beat them in the alleyways…
Seriously wondering what trade deadline will look like?! I love this team right now!!
Tampa Bay “Trustfund Baby” Lightning, folks!
lol What a bunch of babies!
Tampa players are on the bench thinking, “How the hell are these guys in 4th in the Pacific?”
Hyman hooked the whole way down by Stamkos. No call was forthcoming.
Worst offiiating I’ve seen in a while.
~Hey, Steven doesn’t get called for penalties; what would the refs tell Corey?~