Game 48 2022-23: Oilers at Canucks

A hockey team has miles and miles of ebbs and flows, and it’s hard to tell what’s real and what is illusion in an NHL season. Perhaps this is the beginning of a run to Stanley, or perhaps this is the last chance Texaco for this talented group. It feels like the Oilers have found the rhythm but can they make it rhyme?

THE ATHLETIC!

• New DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
• Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
• Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
• DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
• DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
• Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
• Lowetide: Oilers should consider obscure options as reinforcements
• Lowetide: Oilers winger Warren Foegele has been odd man out, so what’s next?
• DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
• Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
• Lowetide: Should Oilers GM Ken Holland trade the 2023 first-round pick?
• Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Klim Kostin’s sudden impact, injury and immediate future
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
• Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen pursue final defence spot
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
• DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

• At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
• On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
• At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
• January actual result: 6-2-1, 13 points in 9 games
• December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 26-18-3, 55 points in 47 games

A win tonight gets Edmonton 57 points in 48 games, that’s a 97-point pace and a sure playoff berth. There is illness in the locker room (reported by DNB) and James Hamblin has been recalled. That could upset a strong run, currently at five victories in a row. If things go right, Edmonton will own a 29-18-3 record at the 50 game mark. That’s 61 points and a 100-point pace. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

FIVE-ON-FIVE PTS-60 SINCE DECEMBER 1 (FORWARDS)

1. Connor McDavid 3.24
2. Klim Kostin 2.79
3. Zach Hyman 2.75
4. Leon Draisaitl 2.44
5. Derek Ryan 2.09
6. Kailer Yamamoto 2.00
7. Ryan McLeod 1.98
8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.90
9. Warren Foegele 1.86
10. Dylan Holloway 1.60

This is a nice mix of Edmonton’s elite talent, the impact wingers (Kane not on the list), but there’s a couple of youngsters (Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway) helping with the offense. Derek Ryan getting a push on Thursday night makes more sense when looking at this number, veteran has a two-way presence and is having a strong offensive run. That’s 10 names, and remember Kane isn’t on the list, who are productive since December 1. We don’t know who is ill, but tonight would be a good night for Kane to breakout.

FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE SINCE DECEMBER 1 (DEFENSE)

1. Philip Broberg 71.4
2. Vincent Desharnais 71.4
3. Tyson Barrie 58.6
4. Brett Kulak 58.1
5. Evan Bouchard 57.9
6. Markus Niemelainen 55.6
7. Darnell Nurse 54.1
8. Cody Ceci 47.1

Philip Broberg has delivered consistent play and shown his gifts over the last 18 games. The numbers in Bakersfield suggested he was NHL-ready but you never know and he needed to flourish in a defensive role before adding on. I suspect Broberg-Bouchard will take on more of the chores. Vincent Desharnais is enjoying great success (just five games, but a helluva five games) and that creates options and challenges for the organization. Evan Bouchard has surged after a slow start, but really his underlying numbers were fine once he got away from Ryan Murray as his partner. This is regression.

I’d like to spend a moment on Broberg and his recent development. There are many extremely intelligent observers of this team who were most unkind in their assessment of Broberg over the last couple of years. One of the things I value about math is that it allows us to track prospects, and Broberg has been tracking like Oscar Klefbom (better in some cases) for at least two years now. However, the smart math folks say “defensemen usually spike within a year or two” and that is used as a slam down on any other verbal. It’s unfortunate. It takes away all the air in the conversation and leaves us with little to discuss. Perhaps that is the point but it’s not productive.

Here’s a crazy idea. What if Philip Broberg ends up being a productive top-four NHL defenseman for a decade? What if, despite not being Trevor Zegras, he is a productive player who helps his team win? I have no argument in the Zegras v. Broberg fight, to be honest I would have chosen Arthur Kaliyev. However, when we as a community (I’m not sure there is a community now, more like factions) argue black v. white there’s a lot of opportunity missed in these situations.

Philip Broberg is progressing but there’s a pile of smart people who have ripped him a new one daily for two years. Perhaps there’s room to acknowledge he might be able to help? Covering the bet has long since been asked and answered, let’s move on and talk about Broberg the player instead of Broberg the draft pick.

FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE, SINCE DECEMBER 1 (CENTERS)

1. Connor McDavid (9-7, 56 pct)
2. Leon Draisaitl (6-5, 55 pct)
3. McDavid-Draisaitl (14-13, 52 pct)
4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18-10, 64 pct)
5. Ryan McLeod (6-4, 60 pct)
6. The rest (6-5, 55 pct)

This is a hellua run, kind of a dream come true really. It’s a balanced roster, and in fact you’d expect the top end to be higher but peak five-on-five is the Nuge line. Music!

FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE, CENTERS 2007-08

• Shawn Horcoff (31-28, 53 pct)
• Andrew Cogliano (35-30, 54 pct)
• Kyle Brodziak (21-17, 55 pct)
• Jarret Stoll (14-24, 37 pct)
• Marty Reasoner (9-17, 35 pct)

Just for fun, I thought I would take a look at the 2007-08 Oilers via the center proxy. It’s an interesting view of the state of the team (I used Andrew Cogliano over Sam Gagner because he took more faceoffs). It really shows how important Shawn Horcoff was to the team, and why dealing Kyle Brodziak was a poor decision. Jarret Stoll and Marty Reasoner would have been overwhelmed by poor wingers and tough opponents. MacT pulled 41 wins from that team. These are better days.