The Edmonton Oilers have five fantastic skill forwards. Connor McDavid (40 goals), Leon Draisaitl (28), Zach Hyman (24) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22) are all near the top of league scoring. Evander Kane has been injured for much of the year, but is considered a 30-goal man or more when completely healthy. Question: In an ideal world, assuming these five men line up on two lines, who would you pick for the sixth spot on the two skill lines?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
- DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
BOB MCKENZIE’S LIST COMPARED TO LOWETIDE LIST
I don’t recall McKenzie’s list and mine matching so closely in the past. The outlier I see is Riley Heidt, who I have No. 6 overall and BM has No. 22. The industry is underrating him based on math (math is about 95 percent of my list). I think this reflects the strength of this draft (2023) at the top.
PAIRS
I have been contemplating the best possible lines for the stretch run, assuming the Oilers don’t get Bo Horvat, Ryan O’Reilly or Jonathan Toews. Here are the best possible “pairs” in the group. All numbers five-on-five.
- Leon Draisaitl-Warren Foegele 4.78 goals-60; 70 pct goal share
- Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto 3.58 goals-60; 67 pct goal share
- RNH-Klim Kostin 6.77 goals-60; 65 pct goal share
- RNH-Zach Hyman 4.76 goals-60; 64 pct goal share
- Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman 4.80 goals-60; 63 pct goal share
- RNH-Kailer Yamamoto 3.58 goals-60; 60 pct goal share
- RNH-Warren Foegele 3.46 goals-60; 60 pct goal share
- Leon Draisaitl-Zach Hyman 4.15 goals-60; 56 pct goal share
- Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl 3.91 goals-60; 54 pct goal share
- RNH-Mattias Janmark 3.24 goals-60; 54 pct goal share
- Connor McDavid-RNH 4.05 goals-60; 53 pct goal share
- Leon Draisaitl-Evander Kane 3.19 goals-60; 53 pct goal share
- Connor McDavid-Dylan Holloway 3.44 goals-60; 50 pct goal share
Not listed in the group are Jesse Puljujarvi and Ryan McLeod, Evander Kane gets just one mention and that is due to injury. Based on the pairs that do well (sorted by goal share), these lines might be the best options moving forward.
- Evander Kane-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto: 4.87 goals-60; 75 pct goal share
- Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman: 5.46 goals-60; 67 pct goal share
- Mattias Janmark-RNH-Klim Kostin: 5.59 goals-60; 60 pct goal share
The No. 1 line and the No. 2 line have some conflicts, I think pairs should be McDavid-Hyman, Kane-Draisaitl and Nuge-Kostin. I’ve been reading about Kailer Yamamoto’s being useless in the comments section lately, that’s of course not true. He is injury prone and that’s an issue. Kane-McDavid-Puljujarvi outscored at about 91 percent a year ago, maybe that trio gets another look.
I remain uncertain of Dylan Holloway’s offense. Everyone says he’ll get there and it’s clear he is a dynamic skater and does highlight reel things, but there are players with that kind of tool kit who can’t score 20 in a season. Two things on that fact: First, I think it’s time to try Holloway for 20 games on a feature line. If he scores five goals, you have another fantastic winger for the great centers. If not, a middle six role still has value. Second: I don’t think discounting Yamamoto or Puljujarvi is wise. One is having a reasonable season, but is injured. The other is healthy and not scorring. Things change. At some point, opportunity may knock for these men. It’s possible they answer.
THE CRIME DOG
One of my all-time favourite players was Fred McGriff. I remember walking with Mrs. Lowetide in the deep part of winter, one of us pushing a stroller with one or both kids in it, while I regaled my poor wife with stories of the Crime Dog. She was a great listener, and always took interest in what I was passionate about, I only remember a few times her saying “can we talk about something else?” and I’d check down to the Oilers. Miss that girl.
The reason I bring up McGriff today is his nickname. Chris Berman gave it to him, a takeoff on the cartoon dog McGruff, and I think that’s what the Oilers need for Leon Draisaitl. The team needs someone with a defensive conscience, someone who thinks about what happens after the turnovers.
Right now, it’s Derek Ryan. I think it should be Jesse Puljujarvi. Since Evander Kane arrived, Kane-Leon-JP has played just 15 minutes at five-on-five. Goals are 2-1, shots are 11-4. I’d like to see it for 10 games.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
10-2 today, TSN 1260, we have Bruce Arthur from the Toronto Star and Marshall Ferguson from TSN, CFL.ca and CF Perspective to talk about Bo Levi to Steel town. We’ll chat about the Oilers game tomorrow night and the deadline, your comments welcome at 10-1260 or on twitter @Lowetide. Enjoy your day!
Hoping Florida falls further out of contention so we can target Gudas at the deadline. I know Holland won’t dump Kulak in year 1 of his contract he’s too honorable. I can see us rolling 8 d thru the lineup playing 7 of 8 most nights.
In this scenario, we have 4LD and 4RD. With Kulak’s mediocre play, and Broberg’s progression, I envision Kulak, Gudas, Barrie and Desi rotating 3 of 4, with one guy sitting every 4th game if we’re playing 11/7…shit even playing 10F 8D wouldn’t be the worst case with our top heavy Fwd group.
Somebody write an article breaking down 10/8…could it work, what would the icetime look like?
Gudas is an RD, so in this scenario they would have 3 LD and 5 RD. Doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.
Would love Gudas for a LA series
Prior to Desharnais arriving, I would have agreed. Dezzy is a far more intimidating net-front presence.
Doesn’t Calgary have Florida’s first round pick this year is it even protected or conditional?
Oops the 1st rounder is in 2025 draft.
Montreal has Florida’s 1st from the Ben Chiarot deal, and it would appear to be unprotected:
https://www.capfriendly.com/draft/2023?pick=13
Calgary has Florida’s 1st in 2025, which could slide to 2026 if it’s a lottery pick:
https://www.capfriendly.com/draft/2025?pick=13
And the Flyers have Florida’s 2024 1st (also protected and could slide).
The Habs have Florida’s first round pick (not-protected) from the Chiarot deal.
Minnesota finally on the outside looking in, something I don’t think will change the rest of the way.
Knights lose in Ot, Kings need OT to win. Division lead continues to look attainable.
Okay, let’s take a look at the trade deadline bargain bin.
If Florida sells at the deadline, one interesting pickup could be Anthony Duclair.
Anthony Duclair.
I’ve always liked Duclair. He has a ton of skill on the rush, but bounced around the league a bit. He’s coming back for the an Achilles tear, but scored 30 goals last year. LHS. winger. $3m cap hit though and it runs for one more year.
Seravalli mentioned a JP for Duclair trade.
Nick Bjugstad
Nick Bjugstad. 6’6. 209 lbs. RHS. Centre.$900 k cap. 46.5% FO win % only this year, but you can use on him on his strong side. PuckIQ has him playing tough comp. Given his size, deployment, RHS, center, cap, pretty much a no-brainer if the price is right.
Rodney DangerfieldShayne GostisbereI like the Bjugstad Ghost package that John Chambers suggested.
Ran Duclair through the EW.
3-year is 80-89-3 and last year 1-year was 82-92-2
Not a 2-way player :/ but that’s a lot of offense. Sort of an opposite JP.
4rth in CTOI% vs elites last year.
Nick B has played half seasons for 6 years
Really?
I’d love to know Seravalli’s thinking on this. I thought Florida didn’t have the cap space to activate Duclair, which is the main reason he might be available.
Otherwise it seems like a no brain move to make (unless he hasn’t healed properly or something). It is weird though how much he’s moved around. Ottawa didn’t qualify him at $1.65M after a 66 23-17-40 season? What? Maybe there are other issues there (others are probably more aware of them than I am?).
Agree Bjugstad/Gost makes sense if the price is right.
Watching the zone entries for PP teams and a lot of teams copy the Oilers. Leon carriers the puck then it’s back to McDavid in full tilt then the pass to RNH just as he’s entering the zone. Then RNH holds on to it for second then the backhand pass of the boards to Barrie who has his choice of what to do.
One skill barrie has that’s underrated, I think, is his ability to hold puck in zone. Great anticipation when pucks heading wrong way and deft ability to keep onside.
JP. You and I were talking about Vince Dunn.
Dom wrote about his emergence here.
Yeah Dunn is clearly having a good year. I’m still very skeptical that he and Larsson can remain an above average first pair, though if they can even tread water in that role it will be a step forward for both players.
I’m a little surprised Dom got through the article without mentioning Seattle’s league leading SH%. Their 5v5 SH% (they also lead overall) remains the highest in the 16 years that NST goes back. Their league deepest forward group is built in large part on cheating the percentages. Maybe Hakstol has them doing something somewhat sustainable there, but the Flyers were 22nd, 25th and 14th in 5v5 SH% the three full seasons he was coach there.
Dom does mention as his point 3 that Seatte’s goaltending has been strong, despite an .890 SV% (27th). IE, without saying it, he’s saying that Seattle is giving up a lot of really good chances. They’re 9th in GF%, 10th in SF%, but in the 22nd in SCF% and 24th in HDCF%.
I’ve twisted this a bit into being about the Kraken rather than Dunn, but I think this applies to the player as well as the team. Dunn and Larsson have been good by their own underlying numbers, but they are riding serious luck as well (1038 and 1050 PDOs at 5v5).
Gregor updates that Kane is out for tomorrow. I think we knew that was all it official but now we know.
Are there any decent young (RFA) players that are unlikely to be qualified by their current team? Either due to slump or AAV.
Starting to wonder if that’s not the most likely talent pool to find JPs replacement, seeing as how unlikely it is that he’ll be qualified next year.
Not exactly but wasn’t qualified last year and on cheap deal this year with poor results that might be worth a flyer:
Danton heinon
Nice idea, Denis Gurianov looks like a candidate.
Jesse Puljujarvi……
Norvat would be an amazing addition but what’s the cost for a rental?
that would make the 3rd and 4th lines awesome
I remember years ago walking into Holt Renfrew in the early summer in Edmonton. To my surprise, there were ridiculous discounts, from 50-75% off on all of their winter jackets. I bought two wool coats and walked away with a smile on my face. That’s when I learned if you want to get a deal, you need to buy something when you don’t need it…
This holds true with hockey when prices for players are generally highest at the trade deadline. You always pay more for a wool coat when it’s snowing outside.
Now, I’m old enough to remember Sather pulling off trades like Kelly, Bonsignore and Marchment for Hamrlik.
Things have changed since then in the league.
Years later, we’re left with celebrating small wins like Kostin for Samorukov.
I spent a good amount of time posting here about Sakic’s winning trades to find out how teams win trades in this day and age.
After looking at those, the conclusions I came to were that you need at least some cap space, and picks to win a trade these days. However, both of those are necessary, but not sufficient to do so otherwise Devon Toews and Jonas Siegenthaler would be patrolling the top pairings on the Sabres and Arizona Coytoes.
The Oilers have long treated as LT once wrote “cap space as some damnable thing that needs to be eradicated.” (IIRC)
We’ve rarely had a sliver of cap space which is why, in part, we haven’t been able to win a blockbuster trade.
Other than cap space and picks, the other requirement is focusing on emerging talent. Holland likes his vets and this has been an area he’s mostly ignored.
I’ve long wanted the Oilers to get into the emerging talent market.
Last year, when trade rumors were circulating about Gabe Villardi, I had suggested him as one such target.
It’s not that complicated. Find teams like the Washington Capitals who are very deep in vets and short in cap space and wait for talent to shake loose.
Or find talented players whose value has dipped, but are still at the age where they’re still prospects and not suspects.
A 3rd rounder for Siegenthaler was a home-run the second the trade was made (for a conditional 3rd round pick). Now that he’s patrolling the top pairing on the Devil’s and signed to a long-term friendly deal, that trade has brought ridiculous value to the Devils.
Hat tip to Tyler Dellow for being part of a management team that pulled off that trade.
Now for the Oilers, I’d like to see us more active in these type of deals.
Another hat tip to Dellow for picking up Ryan Graves for a second round pick and a distant bell.
He’s just a paltry +29 on the season
Didn’t realize Dellow was the GM.
AGM.
Joe Sakic trading away Ryan Graves for a 2nd rounder and a distant bell….
Sakic got Sakicked.
Nah…it was a cap decision.
Sakic decided to go younger with Sam Girard.
The cap forced the trade, but the return was poor for Sakic.
Graves was a #4 d on a President’s trophy winning Avs team.
Acquiring a 24 y/o top 4 defenseman, from a very good team, with a contract running 3 years x $3.16 m for a second round pick is an insanely good deal. Sakic was on the wrong side of a Sakic-type trade.
I recall you suggesting that the Oilers should have traded for Graves when he became available.
Yes…the Oilers should have.
The Avalanche turned that second round pick into Sean Behrens who won an NCAA championship with Denver.
Wheeler ranks him highly.
I was looking specifically at one trade in isolation to make a point, but yeah overall look at how they rebuilt the blue line.
Siegenthaler for a conditional 3rd.
Graves for a second round pick and a distant bell.
John Marino for Ty Smith and a 3rd.
Any team with lifetime LTIR-ers for example Kelfbom really throws a wrench into the G.M’s plans and opposing G.M’s smell blood.
Kostin was a win for sure, but it’s kind of a fringe add that helps the team but doesn’t raise the level overall. Gernat and a 4th round pick for Maroon was the last time that happened that I can recall. Probably MPS for Perron before that.
If only we could have originally been in position to have drafted this fellow in the first place…
Apparently the pro scout they let go was supposed to have a book on each team. It makes sense that to be a perennial contender the GM has to be better than 50/50 and also should knock a few over the fence, or you tread water
It also takes knowing the other team’s cultures. As in they suck and struggling players if they have the right tool kit will probably reach potential in a good environment . The key is seeing the potential. Guys that can’t skate etc are still likely not going to reach their potential, can’t misjudge that very often
Kind of opposite DoD. But 100% agreed, you have to get in position to pounce on a bargain, be it cap, a player wanting out, or a mistake by a competitor
I’m a big fan of the “upgrade” approach, rather than the “filling holes” approach.
Who could reasonably be upgraded?
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi
Janmark
Ryan
Kulak
Barrie
Any reasonable deal which upgrades these spots – whether directly or in combo with another move – makes a lot of sense at this stage.
Agreed. Have any targets in mind, or musing about strategy in general?
Mostly thinking about the strategy. Haven’t gotten to do a deep dive on available players just yet. Seems to be a large pool of forwards this year.
The Barrie spot kinda gives me a “dare to dream for Karlsson” thought, but I’d need to look at that a lot more closely.
“Kane-McDavid-Puljujarvi outscored at about 91 percent a year ago, maybe that trio gets another look.”
Goal share is important in that you don’t want to be outscored. The problem with this stat by itself is it lacks important context. A player that has 1 goal scored for and 0 goals scored against over 10 games has a much better goal share % than a player who was on for 20 scored for and 16 against. Which player actually helped outscore more?
I don’t have the stats to back it up, but doesn’t Puljujarvi suppress goals for both teams when he is on the ice? It’s important for the stars to have defensively responsible wingers, but it is equally important for them to have wingers that don’t reduce their output as well.
Almost all of the time those 3 played on a line together last season was from the end of March until the end of the season. In average of ~ 13 minutes per game as a line combo at 5 on 5 , they outscored the opposition 10-1 over just 12 games. That was a rate of 4 gf/.4 GA/60 so very impressive outscoring by any measure. Outside that stretch, they has only played 6 minutes as a line in total from Kane’s arrival up to near the end of March. They were definitely a planned line for a decent stretch and very effective.
Woody liked the line so much, he kept them together to start the playoffs. In the first 4 games against LA, they played together an average of 9 minutes per game and outscored the Kings 4-1. Small sample size, but their outscoring rate was 6.22/1.56 GF/GA per 60. In game 5, when Draisaitl got further injured (he was already playing hurt), and it became apparent his limitations made it very hard to drive his own line , he took Jesse’s spot beside McDavid and Kane. For the rest of the playoffs, Jesse got a total of about 10 minutes with Connor, which include just 4 with Evander.
This season, the 3 have played a total of 8 minutes together and the only scoring event in those minutes was 1 goal against. Now that Kane is back playing, maybe Woody gives it another try.
I stand corrected!
Oilers pro-scouting meetings started today in Vegas (per Seravelli). With less than zero cap space (don’t even have room for a 21 player roster with Yamo activated without a contract down or out) there is only so much they can do – any material move will be more expensive for cap structuring and and cap out will weaken that position when upgrading another (i.e. Jesse out for cap to upgrade D weakens the forward depth). What will they focus on:
Upgrade on Kulak at 2LD (likely moving Kulak down to battle Broberg for the 3LD spot and with Deharnais out – unless Kulak himself is moved)
Depth d-man with more experience than Deharnais
Top 6 player (Oilers have a legit 5 but the 6th is not solidified
Bottom 6 FO/PK guy
did you say Kulak himself moved? Now… that’s interesting if it’s a swap for a legit 2LD….
I think it’s fair to say that management has three intersecting priorities for this deadline:
1) Upgrade the team. The way OP has summarized (2LD, 1RW, 4C) are probably the correct order.
2) Retain key prospects & young players who can contribute during the McDrai window, ie Broberg, McLeod, Holloway, & Bourchard play a role and are put in a position to succeed.
3) Avoid cap obligations or clear cap for next season (eg. dispose of Kulak, Foegele)
Upgrading Kulak while trading away his salary, while Broberg crushes 3rd pair minutes would be nirvana. Ditto upgrading Foegele to a bona-fide top-6 winger, while Holloway plays a regular shift down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Your speculation? Or was there some reporting on this?
That was just me going point form on some potential areas they might look to acquire in.
Thanks.
Could Klefbom’s contract be traded to a salary floor team to open a little room for the playoffs?Strike that, read further down and answered my question.
Jesse Puljujarvi, Raphael Lavoie, and a 2nd for Josh Anderson (50% retained),
Kane McDavid Hyman
Foegele Draisaitl Anderson
Kostin Nugent-Hopkins Janmark
Holloway McLeod (Ryan)
Nurse Desharnais
Broberg Bouchard
Kulak Ceci
(Barrie)
Alternatively, Puljujarvi plus a pick for Nyquist (50% retained).
Just as predicted on the day it was signed, that Anderson contract is one of the worst contracts in hockey – so bad.
At 50%, I guess I’d take him but I’m not excited about it and, yes, I think that package is still too expensive – he’s as inconsistent as Lavoie is.
What I really wanted to respond with was the question of if the Habs are willing to retain for four year – yes, four full years – that’s a commitment to pay someone to not play for you.
I’ve seen a lot of fans pushing for the Oilers to give Dylan Holloway an extended audition on one of the top six lines.
I don’t like it for one reason. The salary cap.
Guys like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi are overpaid because of extended amounts of icetime with McDrai.
If I’m in the Oilers org, I want to see a guy like Dylan Holloway start pushing the offence and possession on his own on in the bottom six before I reward him with the extra points and bigger contract that comes with playing with the best player on the planet.
We have seen anyone with a pulse can put up 40+ points playing with McDrai. Lets see Holloway be the driving force on his own line, and prove that he is worthy of the bigger contract.
No, it’s because they’re massively underperforming relative to their own past, due to slump and/or injury.
Jesse’s GF/60 in his two good seasons of 20/21 and 21/22 was 1.37 GF/60 when on the ice without Mcdavid/Draisaitl.
The team scored 1.85 GF/60 without any of them on the ice.
This season Jesse is 1.34 GF/60 without the wonder twins. The team is 2.62 GF/60 without any of that trio.
That is 3 years in a row that Jesse has under performed “the rest” when it comes to production but he’s paid more than all of the bottom six guys.
Yamamoto has one season of three he has outscored “the rest” when not playing with McDrai.
That is inefficient use of cap space.
Yamamoto and Puljujarvi, healthy and playing like they did in the first 3 years Holland was GM, are $3M players. They would almost certainly be the Oilerstop 6 RWs right now. Absolutely not an inefficient use of cap space.
Per 82 games since Holland has been GM (before this year)
Yamamoto 82 20-25-45 +13
Puljujarvi 82 20-22-42 +19
I always wondered if Holland ever looks at wowy type data?
Those are good numbers if you’re not playing with generational talents.
Did other teams like the Pens, do a better job over not over paying for the Crosby zoom when he was in his prime?
So how would you have managed the 2022 off season summer with Kailer and Jesse? Both had filed for arbitration. Both would have been awarded certainly no less than what Holland signed for them and possibly gotten more. The arbitration process does not factor in wowy.
To clarify, I wasn’t asking a rhetorical question.
I’d have to look back, but I don’t specifically recall the Pens handing out bad contracts to players zoomed by Crosby.
By not putting myself in that situation.
Ideally, you can’t really have players playing with 97 and 29 during contract years, if you’re gong to keep them.
In a perfect world, maybe you have players on longer contracts playing with them.
I’m not sure if you’re stuck pumping someone’s tires by playing them with 29 and 97, if there would have been an opportunity to sell high or not.
Last summer in the $3m or less bin, there were guys like Kubalik, Domi, Sturm, and Kuzmenko, and Lindblom.
But yeah, if I were GM, I would have done anything possible to avoid having players, especially lesser lights, getting zoomed during contract years playing with 29 and 97.
So actually ham string your coach to not let him deploy players in the manner he sees fit to actually win games!
That’s what BankShot is championing.
and it’s been stated here many times with the likes of JP, Yamo and others.
That’s a tough question to answer. Are the Pens are the only team we can even compare to in the cap era?
And were Yamamoto and Puljujarvi overpays? I still don’t think they were.
I seem to be in the minority, but I like Yamamoto in the top 6. He’s had spectacular on ice results with Draisaitl 4 of 4 seasons now. He’s injured this year, and people like to call him injury prone, but he missed very few games as an Oiler before this season.
And Puljujarvi was pretty bad for half a season last year. I still think his overall body of work over his previous 2 year deal warranted the contract he got. I don’t think Holland’s bet on him returning to that this year was wrong, even though it ended up being wrong. Holland would certainly have been roasted if he’d traded RFA Puljujarvi for a 3rd rounder this summer.
In terms of overpays in Pittsburgh, Hornqvist and Sheary seem to fit the bill. Is Kapanen an overpay at $3.2M? Probably using the criteria folks are using the Yamamoto and Puljujarvi.
Do Rust and Rackell at $5M-ish need to be scoring over a point per game since they play with generational players? They seem like overpays right now compared to Nuge, Hyman and Kane, who are making similar and scoring considerably more (giving Kane a pass during on his injury recovery). I don’t know.
Anyone have any thoughts on kulak/foegle 2023 2nd, 3rd and B forward prospect (no bourgault) for brock boeser 25% retained?
5.5 million out this deadline and next season
5.0 million in
500k should mean no waiving of ryan/jammark
6′ 1″ 208 lbs RW
Career SH% 13
Consistent 20+ goal scorer
Is that enough or would you likeky have to use 1st to make Canucks bite?
I think if the Oilers are forward shopping, a plus two way guy is their biggest need.
I don’t think Boeser fits that bill.
A top D is of course the biggest need by far.
I realize that’s no use to Vancouver either. They’d be moving boeser to free up space to maybe up.anti to horvat.
Foegele, Yamo, and Jesse are far from useless. But they are not consistent enough either to warrant giving top 6 minutes. No shame in that. But team would probably be more balanced if 2 of the 3 could be cashed out, while bringing in 1 veteran RW who consistently scores 15-20 goals while providing a defensive conscious to one of the top 2 lines.
You mean like healthy Yamamoto.
Or Puljujarvi when he had confidence..
Nah. Even when healthy and confident these guys don’t produce enough. Jesse has one 15 goal season in 5 tries, and Yamo has one 20 goals season in 3 tries. Considering the centers they play with those are not pieces I would count on in the top 6. Third line? Sure. But both McDavid and Drai have earned better, more consistent wingers.
What should $3M McDavid/Draisaitl wingers who don’t get PP time be producing?
40 ish points?
15 goals 25 assists even strength but not sure with the way a lot of those cheatcode goals are winding up from way back…so I’d assume defenders cashing above average apple crop on those?
Yams and Jesse last season type totals. Which is the crux of any arguement against why it wasn’t obvious to not sign those contracts.
Short memory lacking time stamped context should be the bane of confidently speaking but it always seems like opposite is true these days. The less you care to know just means the louder you go to “win”.
*Crux of any argument for why it was obvious to not sign those contracts *
Or something….Blah blah blah
Kane may not be available tomorrow night per Bob, due to the “personal issue.”
The annual winter pro scouts meeting is taking place right now in Vegas, apparently. Per Seravalli.
Oilers may be in the thick of race for either a Pacific division playoff spot or a wild card but, at the same time, they are:
4th in the conference in wins
2nd in the conference in regulation wins
3rd in the conference in goal differential
They are sixth in the conference in points percentage.
The Oilers are through the toughest part of their schedule and, while they have one tough stretch going up in March (Boston a few times, Jets back to back, Leafs, etc.), they also have the upcoming “7 non-playoff teams” and they end with multiple games against each of SJS, ANA and ARI.
The Oilers are in a fight to make the playoffs but, at the same time, their “points placement” might under-value the team.
Tied for 2nd in the league for regulation wins. Only the Bruins are ahead.
LT, was it not just last year that this board was talking Selke for Leon Draisaitle? I can not beleive how many turnovers every game he commits ugh.
Leon is 6th among forwards in rate of turnovers.
The top 10 is:
Pastrnak
Malkin
Barzal
Marchand
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Panarin
Hughes
Marner
Schmaltz
🤷
Bunch of bums.
Betting Pastrnak and Marchand lead the Turnover Turnover list though, so they should subtract those ones.
High risk, higher reward
Players who have the puck a lot have more turnovers than players who chase the puck.
I feel like he’s gotten better recently. He was just turning over the puck egregiously in the first 25-30 games or so.
You can site good players having the puck more as a reason, but in truth I think Draisaitl just doesn’t have enough care and attention when it comes to puck management.
The one thing the Oilers lack for forwards is a top forward that really prides himself on two way player. The O’Reilly, Toews, Kopitar, Beregon, Hossa.
Out of the Oilers top six guys, (RNH,McDavid,Hyman,Drai,Kane) Leon is the guy I think that puts the least effort into two way play.
Jesse Puljujarvi should/could be that guy but, well, he isn’t.
I’m not positive that I wouldn’t have Hyman over Drai on that list…..
Are you thinking along the lines of Josh Green, Brad Isbister, Chad Kilger????
I really like the idea of running our four centres like this:
Mcdavid
Drai
Nuge
McLeod
It could be a handful for opposing teams. Is it possible to configure a good lineup this way? Maybe we do think of adding a winger at the deadline.
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Janmark-Nuge-Kostin
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan
Holloway
Among many other possible arrangements. Another top 6 winger would always be nice too.
Nearly impossible for most.
Critical to run the C’s like this imo.
Per Gregor: Kane NOT expected to play tomorrow. He’s still in bankruptcy proceedings.
This seems weird. Kane has to be personally present in hearings at 7:00 pm?
I believe they’re in California.
Sorry, yeah I get that the hearings are in California, but between his lawyer and the ability to videoconference I’m surprised he has to physically be there.
Yes, fair enough 🙂
No idea if he needs to be there in person, or just wants to be. You can certainly understand how he would want to be, as well as how distracted he might be if he were to remain with the team practicing and playing.
Chest harness + selfie stick + phone with selfie camera + background filter to block out the rink and replace it with some generic office background + green helmet to CGI some hair on his head + Nvidia Broadcast to block out any noise other than his voice and to make it look like his eyes are always facing the camera. Problem solved. It’s like Kane isn’t even TRYING to play with the team!
It is possible he may need to testify. It is an actual trial taking place, scheduled from yesterday through to Feb 2.
https://theathletic.com/4105430/2023/01/20/evander-kane-bankruptcy-nhl/
Given the amount of money in question – greater than the value of his entire Oilers contract – I can see why it is a priority or necessity for him to be there. The Oilers would have understood this at the signing of his new contract.
Same.
This may be a stupid question but i would like to ask anyhow for some of the more knowledgable posters who have cap knowledge.
If a team like the oilers sends mike smith and oscar klefbom out are they still allowed to exceed the cap by the same value of their contracts?
The total value of the contracts is 6,367,000 which if you add puljujarvi you get up to 9,367,000 which brings in the possibility of a lot of assets which could be brought in.
Again i dont entirely understand the cap i just know its dollars in/dollars out.
im just having images of sending picks out with smith, klef, jp and getting a 50% retained toews and enough cap space to bring in a decent rental Dman.
Not an expert but the Smith Klef LTIR wouldn’t count for the Oilers if they were moved out
They could only gain cap space by removing active players
I think the players permanently on LTIR only really matters right at the start of the year. The team has to max out the usage of those amounts as close as possible in order to take advantage of it for the year.
I believe the advantage of shipping out Klefbom and Smith contracts is that the Oilers would no longer be in LTIR and then could potentially accrue cap space. The window for this is long gone, it would have potentially been impactful early in the year.
If they trade Smith and Klefbom away those two will no longer count on the cap but they would also lose the LTIR reserves.
In some cases this would lead to a bit of additional cap as the LTIR reserves don’t alway equal the cap hits of the LTIR players but management did a great job cap structuring and the Oilers essentially have full LTIR reserves equal to cap hit of those two.
If the Oil did get fully out of LTIR there would be benefits – they’d start accruing cap space and bank it and they’d also be able to pro rate the cap hit of acquires players.
it’s not feasible to get there – in addition to Klef and Smith, there is also Murray on LTIR and potentially Koekkoek – I’d have to check on his status though.
There is no cap benefit that can be obtained by trading Klefbom or Smith’s contract at this time of the season and where the Oilers are at cap wise. While not technically the right was to look at it, the net effect of Klebom and Smith’s contract on the Oilers being cap compliant is zero. The ~$6.4 million gets counted, then deducted to determine if the Oilers are within the cap. The only difference between the idea that they are just 0 on the cap, or its gets added, then deducted, is that because the LTIR puts the Oiler over then back under, they do not get to accumulate cap space during the season that can be used up to the trade deadline.
A team that is at $75 million total cap hit for example, is accumulating the difference between the $82.5 million cap ceiling and their $75 million on a daily basis through the season which, by the time the deadline arrives allows them to use a way more than just the $7.5 million of space they have on a prorated basis. A team that has to use LTIR all season to get under the cap does not accumulate this space. Trading Klefbom and Smith’s contracts at the deadline would not create any extra space for the Oiler this season since there is no longer any time to accumulate useful cap space. Even If they traded them now, it still wouldn’t matter because they are still have to have Yamamoto’s contract in LTIR to get their net cap hit under the $82.5 million, so still wouldn’t accumulate any cap space that can be used at the deadline. By the time Yamamoto is cleared, there won’t be a lot of days to accumulate space, and the Oilers probably would still be at or so close to the $82.5 million total, there wouldn’t be much if any to accumulate.
thank you all for the explanations! the salary cap and LTIR usage is somewhat of an enigma to most of us
Next year is the first year in forever where they actually could really boost roster at deadline if they set team up properly
“Miss that girl”
😥 oh LT, I think about your loss everyday.
I wouldn’t like to see McDrai together for anything other than must-score situations, and the PP.
____/Kane – McDavid – Hyman
Kane/_____ – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Janmark – Nugent-Hopkins – Kostin
Is my ideal top 9. Why not give Holloway a look on one of those two lines.
And just after a PK maybe. Catch em out.
On your page. Opposition coaches dream having the big guns play together.
With the seeming emergence of the 3rd line – very difficult time defending
that kind of forward depth.
Too much talent on Holloway for him not too succeed. ( needs work on d side of things)
People are right to talk about our D being suspect for sure.
But for me – Holloway and his noticeable talent are a major story. As in if he can start finding the range this teams F depth become very problematic for most teams.
holloways defensive game has improved dramatically. look at his rates of hdca and sca aand xga per 60
His defensive game improved significantly once he stopped playing with Shore. I’m sure it’s a coincidence. 😀
Actually:
Shore/Holloway together – GA/60 of 2.11
Holloway without Shore – GA/60 of 2.43
Sure, but they had a 1.041 PDO together. HDCA/60, xGA/60 and Corsi/60 against all improved away from Shore.
I’m comfortable with what I said.
Drai/McD/Kostin
Kane/Nuge/Hyman
Janmark/Mcleod/JP
Holloway/Ryan/Foegele
I agree a Kane Draisaitl Puljujarvi line should get a long look soon.
As much as I like the cycle game Puljujarvi and Kostin provide when in the bottom 6, Draisaitl needs Puljujarvi to prop up his outscoring numbers. Like wise on a line with Kane and Draisaitl, Puljujarvi’s lack of scoring is not an issue.
“I remain uncertain of Dylan Holloway’s offense. Everyone says he’ll get there and it’s clear he is a dynamic skater and does highlight reel things, but there are players with that kind of tool kit who can’t score 20 in a season.”
Does Holloway remind anyone else of Todd Marchant back in his early years with the Oilers? Highly skilled, could skate like the wind and I remember thinking he should be a 30+ scorer… but usually had about 15.
Marchant of course had a great career, but he reinvented himself from his early days with the Oilers. Far to early to say how Holloways career pans out, but even if the offense never comes, has has the tool kit to be a very valuable player.
For me Holloway kinda reminds me of Joltin Joe Murphy. Hollaway is more of a power forward and he’ll figure it out. Woody needs to take the leash off and let Holloway effectively use his style of play to start producing on the offensive side of the game.
When I think of Ryan McLeod I see a lesser Todd Marchant. I think Holloway will be a 35-50 point guy at the peak of his career. He’ll draw a ton of penalties and piss off the opposing team.
I’m not sure he has a ton of skill or a real nose for the net, but he makes good things happen out there as a rookie. His work ethic by all accounts is excellent too. Those are the guys you bet on.
all of our up and coming kids (forwards) regardless of their natural skills should watch Hyman closely and study how a later draft pick can make a path for themselves and have such a great impact at the nhl level…such a cool story!
I might be going out on a limb but Holloway sure reminds me of a young Mark Messier. I remember when he first came into the league and he could skate like the wind, forecheck like a demon but couldn’t score for the life of him. Sather was patient and Mr. MM figured it out. Those were the days baby!
There shouldn’t be too much of a conundrum. I’m not looking at pairs, I’m looking for the best functioning line combos. For me the top two lines are (Leo-McDavid-Hyman) and
(Janmark-Nuge-Kostin) that leaves a lot of good hockey players to sort out for the bottom six. On left wing they have ( Kane,Foegele,Holloway) on right wing they really only have Yamamoto & Puljujarvi , how about that. for centers they only have Macleod & Ryan. A third line with (Kane-MacLeod-Yamamoto / Foegele) if Yamo ever gets healthy (which would no doubt be beneficial for the team to be on LTIR for the remainder of the season) if not Foegele would need to play on his off wing, I believe Kane also plays on his off wing. That leaves Holloway, Ryan & Puljujarvi . So, without further ado the line combos, with Yamamoto remaining on LTIR, barring trades.
Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman
Janmark-Nuge-Kostin
Kane-MacLeod-Foegele
Holloway-Ryan-Puljujarvi
It should also be noted Noah Philp & Justin Bailey could possibly be in the picture as well.
That’s not too bad.
My biggest hope for this draft is that Wil Smith gets drafted by Philadelphia, then traded to LA.
the trade will occur after Smith gets into one little fight
Amazing.
Once in LA, he’ll find himself between a Rock and a hard place.
That Lucic vs Olivier fight in yesterday’s game was intense…reminded me of Big Mac vs Ivanans and I’m surprised the result wasn’t the same. No defense in those fights…just a devastating exchange of nuclear bombs and see who collapses first.
I’m glad those fights are few and far between, i’d rather watch hockey players fight than fighters play hockey. Nurse fighting Perry isn’t as exhilarating but both guys are smart enough to protect themselves and you might see a busted nose or some bloody knuckles in the penalty box…rarely ends in a KO. Give me nuge vs Monahan or Holloway vs dunn or hyman vs dursi or Iginla vs Lecavalier all day.
What I’m saying is, as someone who was raised on Rockem Sockem ™ hockey, trained to hate the instigator rule, I think I’ve switched sides.
I think the instigator rule is the lesser of two evils, it’s not perfect, but it’s improved the quality of hockey, the quality of player, and the health, safety, and mindset of everyone associated with hockey right down to the 6yr old kid playing mini sticks in his basement ….rare kudos to Bettman on this one.
That fight was intense but short. Nothing like some of the longer bouts I remember from the 80s-90s like the Probert-Cox fights, Probert-McSorely etc.
The staged fighting days are over if a fight breaks out naturally that’s another thing. I believe the instigator rule has effectively hurt the stars of the game if you can slew foot etc etc the Crosby of the games without consequences it’s not a good thing for the game of Hockey.
I think the only thing that takes dangerous plays out of the game, is taking dangerous players out of the game. Ie, suspensions.
One problem I see with this strategy is the subjectivity of what makes a play dangerous, and the unreliability of the person(s) making those decisions.
Watching the odjick vs debrusk scrap on Saturday definitely brought misgivings.
It’s s no wonder a lot of the guys designated as goons had substance abuse issues. Crazy dumb.
The punching into helmets these days also seems pretty dumb.
I do like the Domi acquisition he adds a little lunch pail attitude which is always welcome come Playoff time. If J.P isn’t resigning are getting qualified shouldn’t Holland try to parlay or recieve a draft pick for J.P. Saying this on the otherhand J.P is defensively conscious and may surprise with the tight checking playoff L.A or Krackon approaching. Does J.P deserve one more Playoff series with the team that drafted him.
I’m not sure which team would offer a pick for JP; he’ll be unrestricted in the summer after not being qualified
Why do you fade Andrew Cristall so much? The math loves him.
Andrew Cristall has serious skating issues. I know what you are saying, the Math says, the math says ….. But his stride is reminiscent of one Tyler Benson.
So many things have to go right, to be a player at the NHL level. and yes, there are outliers who are “poor” skaters that do make it. But math also leans heavily toward better skaters playing in the NHL.
IMO you avoid Cristall for sure. There are enough quality options in Round 1 for Edmonton to go a different direction.
maybe so, it’s just unusual to see LT be lower than BM’s consensus rankings on a player when the math is really good.
one big difference between Benson and Cristall is one player being below a point per game in the WHL and one player being almost 2 points per game. Reminds me of Debrincat and Kaliyev criticism.
Cristall’s numbers are good. I saw him live once and immediately flashed back to Benson thoughts. …. very awkward, choppy stride …
I am not making a call on Cristall or a prediction, but I am assuming LT has punished him for what would be described as BELOW AVERAGE SKATING.
Guess we will see how it all plays out over the next 5 years.
Yeah I watched him play in early December. He’s got an ugly stride, but imo quicker than I remember Benson being in junior, and he’s in a completely different league offensively. There’s no comparison there.
im not necessarily advocating for drafting him, he just seems like the type of guy that LT would give a push in spite of the scouting reports, much like Kaliyev and Debrincat in recent years.
I don’t think he’ll be around where the Oilers end up picking anyways
And with all that said, the game I went to Cristall had 4 points. Yes he is quicker than Benson was and better offensively.
Anyway, hope we pick 32nd. and Cristall will be long gone 🙂
Yes I see your conundrum with Leon on both lines 1 and 2 LT, that’s a lot of minutes. Assuming its the centres three approach, I think the player who deserves to be in the top six is Kostin. However, once there, the bottom six gets quite thin in a hurry, and really for your defensive turnover argument Klim is not the guy. So aside from O’Reilly or Nuge, yes Ryan is the guy. I can’t get on board it’s the mindset of management to have JP still around for the stretch run, shouldn’t say never, but doubtful it happens. Although the math is there, and surely there’s a tie in with the McKenzie list somewhere for keeping him. Congrats on the list LT, I’m not surprised that your lists are merging closer the longer you do this. Great work as usual!
I’m not sure the Oilers will be going after any big fish at the deadline. Cap is just too tight unless they manage to dump a lot of salary. Hard to get teams to bite on Foegele, or Yamamoto, or Puljujarvi when they aren’t performing particularly well. Also, if the team continues to perform well before the deadline, then they may not want to mess with team chemistry too much. That said, there are some interesting players out there who can fit under the cap. Vancouver has Kuzmenko (playing on Petterson’s RW) and Schenn (currently 1RD with Ekman-Larsson), who are both having pretty decent years in a terrible situation. Arizona has Bjugstad (2C), who is also having a decent year on a very bad team.. One of the most intriguing is the under-the-radar Walman (1LD) in Detroit. He is playing big minutes and doing well on a below-average team. Domi is also interesting and his Cap Hit matches our 3 (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Foegele). I suspect Chicago would want Yamamoto or Puljujarvi, and we might still have to dump Foegele (send a pick with him?) to fit everyone under the cap. It should be a fun 5 1/2 weeks of speculation.
More on yesterdays rookie/prospect topic than today’s, but here are the current boxcars for Oilers prospects in various leagues.
WHL
Schaefer 29 19-14-33 +14 46PIM
Chiasson 44 10-23-33 -22 20
Wanner 39 8-21-29 ++22 41
OHL
Petrov 42 21-40-61 +24 24
NCAA
Brind’Amour 24 10-10-20 +4 10
Maatta 24 5-4-9 -4 18
Mazura 20 3-6-9 0 6
Munzenberger 20 0-5-5 -6 20
USHL
Lachance 33 23-7-30 +5 31
KHL
Beroyzkin 39 4-14-18 +4 10 (also 9 3-3-6 +2 4 in the VHL)
Yevseyev 45 5-2-7 +8 11 (also 2 0-0-0 +2 9 in the VHL)
Denezhkin 2 0-0-0 0 0 (also 28 6-9-15 +1 78 (!) in the VHL) (! – leads the league)
(Konovalov, no longer Oilers property, is back to a starting role with a .920SV%, though that’s only tied for 22nd in the KHL)
Swedish U20
Jonsson 21 10-11-0 2.49 .903 2SO
Swedish Allvenskan
Lindewall 24 2-3-5 -12 6
Bakersfield AHL
Bourgault 37 9-10-19 0 8
Lavoie 26 8-7-15 -2 19
Kesselring 34 10-4-14 -3 30
Tullio 32 7-7-14 0 10
Savoie 29 8-3-11 -4 12
Hamblin 20 5-6-11 -2 2
Kemp 37 5-6-11 +3 22
Philp 36 6-3-9 +4 17
Benson 11 0-7-7 -5 6
Niemalainen 12 2-2-4 +4 8
Rodrigue 19 7-11-1 3.03 .909
Fanti 8 0-5-1 3.71 .884 (also 9 2-5-1 3.55 .890 ECHL)
(Matej Blumel returned to the AHL after his 6 games in Dallas. Totals are 29 11-14-25 so a nice performance though he’s cooled down considerably)
Thanks so much for doing this work JP.
This is awesome…thank you
Konovalov has scored more goals than Tyler Benson this season…..
Be interesting to see what Holland does in the next month and a bit.
The D is playing better for sure, but they still could use a legite 2nd pairing tough shutdown D man that would take minutes off of Nurse and force Kulak down to the 3rd pair. Not really sure we get that guy and looking at Hollands trade deadline last year we might end up with Schenn ( which would be a great 5/6/7 tough Depth add) and maybe a plug in 4th line Pk type guy.
But I guess you never know. I would like to see Broberg/Bouchard pumped up in minutes for sure in the next 4-5 weeks with Barrie/ Kulak with less than those 2. Especially over the next several games with lesser competition. Be great for both of those kids confidence.
Need both these wins this week with the team rocking it.
I just don’t see the Oilers going far in the playoffs if they’re running Nurse-Ceci for 30 minutes
They did play 14 minutes per game together in the playoffs last season while Nurse couldn’t skate and had a positive goal share….. Played about 3 minutes per game at 5 on 5 each without the other.
Push Kulak down to 3l or 4L. Broberg is killing it at 3L right now. It would be nice to have those options though.
If Puljujarvi plays with Draisaitl he will never receive a pass.
Why is that. He was working with him after practise last week on 1 timer passes .
Strictly anecdotal based on my observations, but it seems he just doesn’t like to pass to him, ie he dosent trust him to keep the play alive.
JP is a shot and goal suppression winger. If Yamamoto is injured, he’s the best available imo. Chico Maki once scored 7 goals in a season while playing with Bobby Hull.
I always move to describing soccer positions and it works well for Puljujarvi. Some guys at The Athletic said there’s 10 outfield players and the goalie, but there’s really more like 16-18 types of outfield players.
Jesse would be a holding mid (#6). They have great value in controlling play and defensive responsibility. They’re just not really expected to ever score much.
If this was soccer then Connor and Leon would play the whole game and we wouldn’t have any problems lol
Imagine our win-loss record if Connor drew red cards and the other team had to play short handed all game.
Well, you kinda wanted Hull to shoot and not Maki
Does he or his agent realize that? and that he is not a natural goal scorer