The Edmonton Oilers lost in overtime to the Columbus Blue Jackets last night. The home team was the superior group, but Columbus kept hanging around, tied it in the third and won the game in overtime. I’m not certain what the reaction will be on the radio text lines and the comments section today, there were several players who didn’t perform at peak levels, but then again the Oilers were 6-0-0 entering the game and got themselves a Bettman. Frustating night, but not close to fatal.
I remain convinced Edmonton’s outlet passing should be a concern to general manager Ken Holland, and I do believe it’s fair to question why the coaching staff used men like Jesse Puljujarvi so little on a night he clearly had his game at peak levels.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
- DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- January actual result: 7-2-2, 16 points in 11 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 27-18-4, 58 points in 49 games
The Oilers have surrounded my prediction for the month, in fact a loss to the Chicago Blackhawks would mean my January bet would come in top dead center. Edmonton is three points behind Seattle (Kraken with two games in hand), three points behind Vegas and two points behind the LAK with a game in hand.
SUMMARY
- Leon Draisaitl turned over pucks with alarming regularity, one sequence featured at least three clear turnovers. He was credited with just two but I don’t believe it. Absolutely robbed in the second period by Joonas Korpisalo, there should have been an arrest. Two shots, won 10 of 16, wasn’t credited for a HDSC on that brilliant save, that’s a scoring mistake.
- Connor McDavid sent a brilliant pass to Zach Hyman on Edmonton’s second goal. He had three shots, one HDSC, drew a penalty, had four giveaways. Stickhandled himself into a cul de sac a time or two, but good lord who could complain?
- Zach Hyman scored a goal, two shots, two HDSC, won numerous battles and owned the puck for long stretches as he does. A wonderful player, so consistent and productive.
- Mattias Janmark had three shots, a HDSC, two giveaways, his passing wasn’t sharp and he made unproductive decisions in the few situations he had the puck on his stick. I saw him poorly, but he had a nice run of good games.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins made a terrific pass to 97 that led to the Hyman goal. Three shots, three HDSC, two TK and a GV. Nuge is playing some of the best hockey of his career. I didn’t like his work on the OT goal, but it’s so rare to be critical of Nuge in those situations one tends to chalk it up to a rare moment of vapor lock.
- Klim Kostin had another quiet night and barely played in the third period. Opportunity knocked and he kicked out the jams, but based on tonight’s performance he may see less playing time Saturday.
- Warren Foegele had three shots, a HDSC and a giveaway. I like his work ethic and he is part of the improved PK rotations (two clean minutes versus CBJ).
- Ryan McLeod was flying but didn’t get many good looks. Just one shot and three giveaways.
- Jesse Puljujarvi had one of his best games of the season. The hits got a graphic, but JP’s three shots, three HDSC and two blocked shots helped the Oilers. He should have played more.
- Derek Ryan scored a goal on a terrific shot. He is a productive player. Five shots, four HDSC, one TK and he won four of six on the dot.
- Dylan Holloway had three shots, one HDSC, three giveaways. He spent some quality time with Leon Draisaitl (3:33, 3-1 shots) and Connor McDavid (3:10, 1-1 shots).
- Darnell Nurse had two shots, took a penalty, GV, TK, 1-1 goals, 13-10 shots at five-on-five. Played a high number of minutes versus Gaudreau trio, 0-1 goals but that goal wasn’t on him. Nurse did screen, and might have tipped, the winning goal. Played 25:48, too much for this player. Edmonton needs to get him some help.
- Cody Ceci had one shot, two giveaways, one takeaway, joined Nurse in the hard match against the Gaudreau line for 17 minutes. I thought he played better than he has in recent games.
- Brett Kulak had two shots, took a penalty, a pair of GV and two TK, he was high event on a night when the Oilers needed calm feet (25 recorded giveaways, I think it was well past 30). Won the five-on-five shot share 11-8 but was 0-1 goals.
- Tyson Barrie was quiet save for a giveaway and a takeaway, played just 13:03.
- Philip Broberg had one shot on goal, a giveaway and and couple of hits. 10-1 shots, 1-0 goals and 77 percent expect goals five-on-five. He is flourishing in his current role. Ranked second in PK minutes (1:48) among defenders, no goals against on his watch in that game state.
- Evan Bouchard had one shot, two giveaways, made a couple of nice passes and seems to be gaining confidence with the puck on his stick. He was 5-4 shots, no goals, but just 31 percent expected goals five-on-five, far back of Broberg.
- Vincent Desharnais had one shot, three blocked shots, 9-4 shots and a 64 percent expected goal share at five-on-five. Played 1:40 clean on the PK.
- Stuart Skinner had a night of highs and lows, that happens to rookies no matter the position. Some brilliant saves and you’d like one of the final two goals to get saved by your goaler. Still, he looks calm and has enjoyed a strong season. I don’t blame Skinner one iota for the loss.
THEY GOT OUTWORKED?
I can’t agree the Oilers were outworked last night, but do believe they lacked something. To my eye the team worked hard, not smart. Several individual plays by the team’s best players ended in turnovers, some in dangerous spots. There’s no need for an investigation, but the coaching staff is going to need a workaround on the McDavid-Draisaitl Light Orchestra. Here are the five-on-five goal scoring numbers for the year, using centers as proxy:
- Connor McDavid 20-21 (49 pct)
- Leon Draisaitl 20-22 (48 pct)
- McDavid-Draisaitl 21-19 (53 pct)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 21-15 (58 pct)
- Ryan McLeod 13-13 (50 pct)
- Derek Ryan 7-6 (54 pct)
- The rest 2-3 (40 pct)
The centers after 97 and 29 come off the ice are 43-37 this season. Music! Coach Jay Woodcroft must find a way to get the top two lines going. Evander Kane’s return to form, and a healthy Kailer Yamamoto should help. I think the staff might be getting a little stubborn on Jesse Puljujarvi. He was flying last night, played little, despite strong numbers over the last two+ seasons with the big centers. JP-Leon have played 263 minutes together without 97, own a 15-15 goal differential. McDavid-Puljujarvi are 48-33 in 967 minutes! Last night? 1:13 with McDavid five-on-five, 1:04 with Leon. Sometimes stubborn is a bad thing.
CONDORS
The four young forwards are playing well in Bakersfield, but the Condors defense is not strong and some of the veterans can’t hit the ocean right now with the puck on their sticks. Tyler Tullio is on a hot streak, he scored last night and Raphael Lavoie continues his strong run, picked up an assist.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy, fun day on the show. TSN 1260, 10-2. Mike Golic Jr will talk NFL, Paul Sir talking 3-on-3 tournament in Edmonton, Ryan Holt talks Condors at 11, and we’ll have a parade of Oilers chat with several guests looking to vent on last night’s game. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes from now!
When is the last time# the Leaves do not play on a Saturday night?
1974?
Close, 2018 and the fans were not happy.
https://theleafsnation.com/news/the-leafs-not-playing-on-saturday-night-is-a-travesty
Lol, never get old.
Anyone know if the Caps end up being sellers, if Dmitry Orlov could be available, seems like he would be a great option. I know he’s a rusky with a
5 team M-NTC. So probably no but wondering if anyone knows more than that.
Kostin, what a guy
https://www.reddit.com/r/EdmontonOilers/comments/10mbek6/kostin_dont_do_flames_jerseys/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
That’s just about the best thing I’ve seen in awhile so far as a hockey player showing any personality
Gold.
Thanks for sharing this.
And now the Ducks take down the Avalanche in Colorado. It was a night of mostly upsets. I guess all those cup hopefuls are back to the drawing board to figure out how to win every night.
If my man Campbell turns his inner self into Oettinger for the second half who’s stopping us in the West?
The Jets, with Hellybuyck who is currently back in his Vezina form, would present a challenge to the Oilers.
Lordy.
The Colorado Avalanche and the Calgary Flames lose to the 31st and 32nd place teams in the league (or 30th and 32nd by points percent).
Not even a loser point. And at home no less!
#notacontender
Noah Philp’s brother Luke gets his first NHL point tonight for the Hawks.
Also, some guy named Jaxson Stauber who had an .896 average in 12 AHL games now is 2-0 in the NHL with a .940 average. Small sample size, I know.
Ha, congrats to the Philp clan!
Lots of rumours about who they are looking at
I don’t think bringing in average players does much. Is Murray done for the season? How much depth do they need?
Mike Rupp on Gregor was saying in NJ Lou brought in Shanahan and despite his ability it was disruptive to the vibe
Bringing in two or three players would be very disruptive. There is a lot of talent up front now, some are not producing but most are playing pretty well at this point or at least contributing something
I keep thinking about Karlsson. Adding a huge talent like him would change the team massively. Exactly what is missing, a high end first pair D that can play against the best both ways
Nurse is first pair, but is not a top one with his limited game, especially his passing ability and his getting off his best game fairly easily still
It can be done if Grier wants to do a deal. It has to entail at least 5M retention. Players will have to move now and next year
I can make the cap work today and next season with Karlsson 5M retained, Barrie JP and Yama out. 100K space, but the ability to accumulate cap for a change
So others have to step up. Coaches and GM have to let the guys they sometimes hold back play, instead of waiting for the traded forwards to pop
Trust and confidence, being given a big responsibility are a very big thing. I think they will step up and do as least as well, maybe better be used they have better skill sets
I don’t see Kostin and Holloway being any worse for the team than JP and Yama at the end of the day
Also 2 firsts would go out to entice Grier. Barrie and JP or Yama to the Sharks, the other forward in that deal also or elsewhere
The cap works next season if RFAs are bridged well until the cap goes up
In the end it’s trading forwards and forward depth for an impact D. I think it makes the team a lot better. Impact players can’t always be had, like E Kane, the time is now, and the marginal guys going out with the 1sts aren’t likely going to make the difference
This is a Sather type move. Recoup the firsts later or other picks
I would not play Nurse with Karlsson. Split them and have two guys playing a large part of the game sharing the load
To me that’s a Cup move
Sorry for typos
Barrie out can only happen if you are getting a true difference maker …. he’s super popular in the room and from all accounts around the league with current and past players. If we’re talking about disruptions to the team, Barrie out would be a major one.
On the surface, Karlsson has the game on the ice and the personality off it to be a fit in Edmonton.
But Grier wanting to trade him is only one barrier though:
The cost to retain 5+ million is going to be huge … think 3+ first round picks/high end prospects.
Especially since they are already retaining on Burns, they would end up with 7.5+ million in dead space for these guys to play on other teams. Plus, the Timo Meier situation is more pressing … if they decide to move Meier then they are going to get a boatload of futures. There’s really no urgency for Grier to move Karlsson, especially with the season Karlsson is putting together.
Second barrier is Karlsson himself … he’d have to waive his NMC. He’s finally back to himself, but there’s no pressure in SJ. He fell apart after some gruelling runs in the playoffs … he may or may not be ready to sacrifice it all again this season. Maybe he wants to wait and see if SJ wins the Bedard sweepstakes and what happens with Meier before committing to anything.
Its fun to speculate about, but I have a hard time seeing Karlsson move this season.
I think Karlsson wants a Cup. He’s a gamer
2 firsts and two NHL players as opposed to prospects is a very good return
Your cap retention point is well taken, it comes down to Grier and ownership and when they think they can contend and what they will pay for first round picks
When asked about asking for 3 firsts, Grier himself said “I don’t think that’s totally accurate”. So you’re likely right that 2 first plus some players might get it done.
I agree with Diablo though that $5M retention might be a dealbreaker for Grier. It would surely cost more than 2 firsts plus players to retain that much.
https://sanjosehockeynow.com/san-jose-sharks-mike-grier-karlsson-meier-trade/
I do believe EK would want to play with Connor
What top player that loves hockey as opposed to money wouldn’t?
As to Grier, his job is to maximize so big demands, we have seen big players move for less and with all kinds of subjects. Maybe he wouldn’t maybe he would
Unfortunately it’s not a strength for Oiler GMs anymore
I don’t doubt Karlsson would be interested. And if Grier would actually do it, I’d be very interested in Karlsson at $6.5M for 2 firsts plus salary out (though looking, I don’t think SJ would be able to take on much or any salary).
I think under the cap rules as described on Capfriendly, they could. They can have 3 retained salary transactions and this would make it 2. As well, the cap on retained salary is 15% of the overall ceiling and Burns plus Karlsson at $5 million would be only about $8 million or just under 10%. I believe as long as they don’t take back more than the $6.5 million of cap hit they’d send out with Karlsson, they’d be okay this year and would have close to 24 million to start next season if they don’t resign Meier (also if he is dealt at the deadline they will have lots of room the rest of this season as well.
I wonder though, combined with the buyout cap hit from Jones, do they want $9 to $11 million in dead cap hit for 3 seasons plus a 4th of $5 million with just Karlsson’a hit? Plus it will be – $16 million more of the owner’s actual money to not have a player in the line up. Yeah they would get a big haul, but if Hertl, Couture and Vlasic stay with their big salaries, it’s probably a long rebuild.
I forgot about the 15% retention rule, but good point. I meant they’d be over the cap by shipping out $6.5M of Karlsson’s salary and bringing back $10.25M as suggested (Barrie, Yamamoto, Foegele). They are in LTIR at the moment, though they have $5M on regular IR (haven’t looked closely if there’s a way they could make adding ~$4M in cap work).
Regardless of this years Cap situation, I agree that it would be a staggering amount of dead cap to be carrying for such a long time. It seems unlikely to me that Grier would be willing (or potentially as you say, allowed) to to do that.
I wouldn’t expect they would take all 3 in the trade. Barrie plus one of JP, Yamo or Foegele is between – 7.3 and 7.6 million, (assuming they’d want them) but they could easily shed a million or two to the minors and still have 23 on the roster. Despite all 3 not achieving the desired results so far this season, the Oilers forward depth would take a hit this year to lose 2 of them.
Yes, that makes more sense.
I’m not against acquiring Karlsson. He would be a seismic shift to our team.
But SJS are at 50/50 contracts. So that’s a complicating factor that changes the look of the deal.
Would likely need a third team involved. Especially if 18% is the most the Sharks are willing to retain.
Karlsson if moved is a summer time transaction. The Timo Meier business will keep Grier busy at the deadline.
I don’t think the 50 contracts is a difficult issue. The Sharks would just add their worst minor pro players (who they don’t want and who wouldn’t affect the NHL Cap) to even the contracts out. That happens with some regularity.
I agree only 18% retention would be an issue. $9.5M would basically be a no go for the Oilers Cap wise.
Mom said if you have nothing nice to say, don’t say anything at all…
But I’m just a man.
So the Flames, who also went to OT with Columbus, but got the extra point, just got beat by the Blackhawks 4-1. The Hawks are basically neck and neck with the Jackets at the bottom of the standings. Chicago got no shots in the third but kept the Flames to just 6 while holding the lead.
It’s the results over 82 games that matter.
Each individual game is not a proof on the overall quality of a team or its players.
And the Wood Chopping Water Carriers are currently winning against the defending Stanley Cup champs.
Oops. Misread the game sheet. I thought it was over, but it is now 5-1 and Chicago did get a few shots in the 3rd, while the Flames had 18.
Dogs spanked the Blues as well
If I’m not mistaken, the Hawks were playing an emergency recall goalie in his second NHL game……
Avs also losing to the Ducks (at home, with Makar back in the lineup for 26 minutes)
Blues blown out, 5-0, by Arizona.
———–
Perhaps the Oilers losing to the Jacket isn’t such a catastrophizing occurrence…..
Maybe the last couple nights are a reminder of “that’s why they play the game.”
Summarizing!
Petrov picked up an apple on the GWG with less than a minute remaining as North Bay won 5-3. That gives Petrov 62 points on the season and sole possession of 3rd in the league, two points back of 1st.
I haven’t heard any mention of the “skills” practice they had before playing Columbus.
In my experience, it makes players loose focus on the game itself and can promote “selfish” plays. I don’t know, they’re pros but they’re susceptible to loosing focus after 3 days off, no sense making it worse with a skills practise.
I don’t see Washington selling unless they fall out of the race.
Nick Jensen would be an interesting target if they do.
He is a RHS though.
He’s Orlov’s d partner. Certainly less famous and cheaper
$2.5m cap hit.
He’s crushing the elites at the top of the CTOI% for the Caps.
Evolving Hockey has him at 71-35-73
He’s decent on the CJTurtoro numbers.
edit: Holland drafted him in 2009.
The Ghost is out with an upper body injury for 4-6 weeks.
That does not bode well for a deadline rental.
It will be interesting to see how Chychrun plays with a different d partner now.
The injury will drive the acquisition cost on the player down. Bad luck for AZ.
Any team trading for him as a rental is now assuming a higher risk.
In some ways it makes him a more attractive target as the market for him should diminish.
The play, or at least the results of both Chychrun and Gostisbehere have been predictably coming back down to earth since Jan 1. They have a 36 and 40% goal share respectively in the 13 games since in that time, which is in line with their expected results after having been in an unsustainably night shooting percentage over about a 6 week period.
There has bee recent drop in his 1-year EH player rating this year. It’s currently 48-69-36. His 3-year rating is 79-80-66.
At 5v5, Chychrun is 46.4% GF since Jan 1 of this year and the Ghost is 40%. Chychrun’s PDO is .996 and the ghost is at .981
I guess it depends if you’re a big picture guy like JP who likes 3-year windows, or if you like small recent sample sizes.
Ceci is 43.8% gf% over those same dates. Should we fire him into the sun?
My numbers were posted before tonight’s games ended so yes he was plus 3 at 5 on 5 against the blues bringing him back from the 7-12 he was at in the first 13 games since Jan 1.
Ceci has had an uneven season to be sure and I am not arguing he is better than Chychrun or even necessarily as good. He cost nothing to obtain other than his salary though, while Chychrun would likely cost a bundle plus his salary is 50% higher. And they are not used the same. Ceci has played on average 30% more ice time per game against elites than Chychrun and leads the Oiler D in PK ice time. Chychrun rarely kills penalties.
And Chychrun’s PDO you quote is pretty close to average. Up to Jan 1, his season average PDO had been a very high 105.3, the opposite of which would have be .947. No where close to normal.
If they trade for Chychrun, fine. He’d be better than Kulak 5 on 5. But with his injury risk, the fact he is generally not a penalty killer, and that the Oilers don’t need him, or the Ghost, for the power play has me believe the asking price makes him not a good fit this year for the Oilers.
https://theathletic.com/4127252/2023/01/26/oilers-trade-vladislav-gavrikov/
DNB on Gavrikov. Helps with a bit better understanding of the player.
Not that he’s worth the reported ask, but it sounds like he brings some of the things the left when Adam Larsson moved on.
I just don’t see a trade for this player working.
I guess he can be considered an “upgrade on Kulak” at 2LD but how material of an upgrade are we talking?
This is an OK, not great, player, right?
I wouldn’t be averse to renting him for the rest of the season and playoffs at normal rental prices of, say, a 2nd round pick and maybe a Phil Kemp type prospect but that simply isn’t going to get it done.
The rumored ask is a 1st and a 3rd and I’m not sure I’d be willing to go anywhere near that price for an extended Gavrikov and, to be clear, I have zero interest in extending him. FIrstly, Kulak would have to be moved out and, the upgrade, if any, wouldn’t come close to the large increase in cap as this player is likely looking for the Adam Larsson type contract – eff that – zero interest, none.
So, to summarize my position (not that it matters or anyone really cares):
1) maybe a small upgrade on Kulak
2) Acquisition cost WAY to expensive for a rental
3) Zero interest in extending
4) OP out on this player
The key question is how much of an upgrade on Kulak is he? (if any).
I agree the reported price is too much for a rental.
If he is better than Kulak though, I don’t see why you wouldn’t entertain an extension. Larsson got $4M x 4, so the AAV would only be $1.25M more than Kulak is getting.
I know Gavrikov’s traditional fancies don’t show him good, but he’s basically breaking even relative to team, and he’s doing it in big minutes against the best opposition players (also with severe Dzone starts, for whatever that’s worth).
Kulak’s fancies had been great in 3rd/2nd pair minutes prior to this season. They aren’t good this year though.
As we saw with Keith coming from Chicago, the fancies don’t always tell the story accurately. And aside from fancies, the other evaluators (style/strengths, TOI and degree of difficulty) suggest Gavrikov is the better player.
I don’t know the answer, but if Gavrikov is a notable upgrade on Kulak (and/or better complements other Oiler defender shortcomings) then adding and extending him might make a lot of sense.
I though Larsson was at $4.5MM-$5MM but you are right on that number. Initial “speculation” is that Gavrikov is looking for $5MM plus but even if he did come in at $4MM, that extra $1.25MM on Kulak will to tough to fit in next season (subject to moving real real cap out) and I’m not certain he’s worth it (let alone a bigger number which is more likely). I haven’t seen a ton of Gavrikov, of that I admit, but I saw him not good on 3 goals in 2 games in Alberta for what that’s worth.
Of course depth is great but, over the next few years, there needs to be some visibility for Broberg to take a bigger chunk on the left side and I don’t think having $14MM ahead of him is the best cap structuring. If Broberg can fill a legit 2LD role in the net 2-18 months, and I think he can, its way more cost-effective allowing cap to be allocated elsewhere.
I thought I’d heard $4.5M rather than $5M for Gavrikov, but you’re right that’s more than $4M (I’m also not very plugged in, so I could be mistaken). $4M or $4.5M (instead of $2.75M for Kulak) wouldn’t be a big deal to fit in next year though.
I’m not certain Gavrikov is worth it either. I haven’t watched him much and am just trying to piece together what information I can.
I agree blocking Broberg isn’t great either (mostly for cap reasons). 2-18 months is aggressive though. No way in hell am I counting on him for anything more than 3rd pair this season or playoffs, and I see zero issue penciling him in as 3rd pair next season too. If he’s too good for that once he needs a raise (2024 summer) then you can deal with the issue then. They key for me remains whether Gavrikov is worth it.
I’m not so sure that extras $2MM for Gavrikov wouldn’t be a big deal to fit in.
The Oilers cap next year has over $73MM for 16 players – so apx $10MM to add 7 players (and that doesn’t include any bonus penalties that reduce the cap).
This includes re-singing McLeod and Bouch, a replacement for Jesse, Kostin, a replacement for Janmark, etc.
I know, I know, just get rid of Foegele or Barrie but an extra $2MM for 2LD (with a limited upgrade)….
Signing Gavrikov won’t be a 1-2 year contract, either and he will be passed by Broberg during its term and now we have another $4MM-$5MM player on the 3rd pairing (Russell, etc.).
He’s not the player I spend up to $5MM on for next season (plus more).
Even if it’s an extra $2M over Kulak, it should only require Kulak and Foegele’s contracts to go out (I also assuming Puljujarvi isn’t retained). Barrie could stay, if Holland chose to.
There would be cap room for a 22-man roster assuming:
Bonus overages of $500k (it looks like it might not even be that much)
Bouchard $3M
McLeod $1.5M
Janmark $1.3M (or similar)
Kostin $1M
Ryan $800k (or similar)
His salary shouldn’t be a big issue if the player is deemed worth it.
I assume Jesse won’t be retained but he doesn’t have a cap hit included in the $73MM plus committed to 16 signed (plus buyouts/retained/etc.) for next season. He’ll need to be replaced on the roster (of course, via a cheaper player). If Foegele is out, he’ll also need to be replaced on the roster – that’s two players that played from lines 1-3 this season out and replaced with replacement level players.
In any event, paying a 1st plus a 3rd (or similar) for Gavrikov, then signing him to a bloated UFA contract for term that leads to only being able to have a 22-player roster, without injuries – well, I remain in the hard no to the player camp.
The salary isn’t a big issue (requiring changes and signings similar to what I outlined). If you don’t believe the player is worth the salary then obviously it won’t make sense though.
More on Gavrikov’s fancies.
Even looking at the fancy stats (relative to team) for the last 2 seasons there’s really no gap between Kulak and Gavrikov.
Kulak (this is 5v5 relative to team)
SF% 0.27
SCF% -0.78
HDCF% -0.19
GF% 1.31
Gavrikov
SF% 0.32
SCF% 0.19
HDCF% -0.03
GF% 0.04
But the usage is pretty different:
Kulak
Total TOI 17:55 (143rd)
5v5 TOI 15:55 (122nd among Dmen)
4v5 TOI 1:26 (132nd)
%OZ starts 51.2%
TOI vs elites
22-23 EDM 3rd (26.9%)
21-22 EDM 5th (21.0%)
21-22 MTL 4th (26.2%)
Gavrikov
Total TOI 22:17 (44th)
5v5 TOI 17:55 (40th)
4v5 TOI 3:07 (2nd)
%OZ starts 34.9% (4th lowest Ozone start %)
TOI vs elites
22-23 1st (38.1%)
21-22 1st (38.0%)
Curious why you would use rels to compare two players on different teams?
How else would you compare players on different teams? Straight numbers would be much worse wouldn’t they?
I like rel team for comparing players on the same team, but I don’t really trust it for comparing players across teams.
I don’t know if rel teammate numbers are still publicly available, but those were from David Johnston’s HockeyAnalysis website.
His calculations tried to strip away the boost you get from your teammates while rel team just compares how your team does with you on or off the ice. Those are vastly different things.
Looking at d with over 500 min played. (rel team ranking for FF%)
Now I like Chychrun, but he’s not the second best defensman in the league.
Megna, Bouchard, and Bear all show up in the top 10.
Maybe I’m missing something, but I can’t wrap my head around comparing players raw rel team data.
Yes, fair enough that players on poor teams may get a bit of a bump. Do you have a better suggestion that still exists though? Or do you just not compare players that aren’t on the same team?
Also, if you look at your FF% ranking, it doesn’t do so bad. I added a 2nd season and 1000+ minutes to remove some of the noise and the top 10 end up being: Karlsson, Walman, Bouchard, Chychrun, Fox, McAvoy, Toews, Spurgeon, Gustafsson, Makar. Some of the best defensemen in the league and a few that don’t look like they belong.
That sort of thing is what inspired Woodguy and co. to create PuckIQ IIRC. So QoC likely weeds some of those guys out.
A TOI cutoff (a la GeorgeXS) also helps a lot. If you include only guys who play 16+ minutes a night at 5v5, the top 10 becomes: Karlsson, Chychrun, Fox, McAvoy, Toews, Makar, Pelech, Werenski, Megna, Weegar.
Megna is the only really weird inclusion, but he plays with Karlsson. So if you use reason and cross Megna out with a pencil, then K’Andre Miller joins the top 10. Upping the TOI cutoff to 17 min would also remove Megna, though all the others remain.
That ends up being a pretty alright ranking for any single fancy stat, right? Still not perfect, but I don’t see a better alternative (and Gavrikov passes the TOI and QoC bars, FWIW).
Leon Draisaitl turned over pucks with alarming regularity, one sequence featured at least three clear turnovers. He was credited with just two but I don’t believe it.
******************************************************
On the very night the very infamous Patrick Laine dumps a backend, in his own end, up the middle of the ice you could hear the gasps of all hockey fans around the NHL ( pure beer league play)…..both Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard channeled their Patrick Laine.
It has been a theme this year with both LD and Bouchard. It has to be rooted out.
Haven’t read the comments yet. JP had a good game last night. I believe it had everything to do with playing against Laine. Someone probably mentioned this.
If they smoke Chicago I’ll forgive last night.
I would expect Bakersfield to light up the hapless Hawks.
last evening I felt a few players’ shifts were too long. They were point-hunting and disrespectful of the CBJ. Shellfish play selection when it is not there or dangerous, leading to too many turnovers. At this point in their careers or season, it shouldn’t be happening.
They played at a snails pace, and after the game every player clammed up during the postgame
This was especially problematic when we had Rob Schrimp.
Players kept lobstering the puck up the ice, you almost thought they were playing the Sharks. Definitely something fishy about it
There’s no porpoise to it, especially when playing against Krill Kaprizov.
Not to carp on it, but they really started to flounder after the first goal against.
Leon had 3 passes picked off on 1 shift. Look at his stats and rewatch the game. Even Bruce talked about that sequence in the Culture of Hockey.
I definitely cod see them winning the division, McDavid is a human cheat code, holy mackerel. They need to do a better job of fin their chances against the Hawks. Hopefully, the pkill improvement isn’t a red herring.
Your reply seems a little crabby
..and before this thread hits the ditch I was just riffing off your comment about the players being selfish…which auto corrected in your post to shell fish
So not the oyster of your eye?
Perhaps they should just clam up and be more respectful while devoting more mussel to the team effort.
Agree with LT … frustrating to lose to CBJ that way, but they were mostly done in by poor execution, rather than poor effort.
I also agree with LT … Holland needs to get a 2LD to reduce some of Nurse’s TOI. He tends to coast a bit when he’s expected to log heavy minutes, and falls back on bad habits (e.g. starfish, icing the puck instead of fighting through checks and skating it out).
Broberg is not ready for that role, and Kulak is not adequate for that role. I think Broberg is doing fine as a 3LD, but I’m not counting on him being ready for 2LD this season or next … if he surprises then great, but he could stall like Bouchard has this season, as well.
I’d move Kulak in a deal for a real 2LD, and let Broberg settle in and take ownership of the third pairing, together with Bouchard.
Gavrikov is not the target though … he was invisible last night. He’s not worth a 1st round pick and he’s going to want a contract similar to the one signed by Zub. No thanks.
Chychrun or Provorov please … yes, the assets required are dear, but if the Oilers don’t win something in the next couple of seasons, then they are looking at having a similar situation to what the Flames just faced this off-season. Both Chychrun and Provorov have contracts which end in 2 seasons, so the the commitment is minimal, and the cap space can be recovered to pay for Leon’s next deal.
I was wondering if Kulak has value to Arizona as part of a Chycrun trade. They might have interest in a lowish cost and perfectly serviceable defenceman as they reluctantly ice an NHL hockey team.
A couple posters mentioned Nurse’s propensity to ice the puck, earlier. I counted 4 times that he did this in the first half of the game. Anybody know if these stats are publicly available anywhere?
Also, speaking of icing, it looked like Holloway iced the puck once last night by using his glove to clear the puck all the way down the ice. Never seen that before.
Here is a website that tracks among other things, icing statistics both by team and by player. The Oilers are middle of the pack by most metrics they track by team. Not a lot of context on the icings though. Missed pass vs just a puck dump. And if it is a missed pass, what is the average success rate.
https://morehockeystats.com/teams/icings
The player data on it isn’t loading properly for me today but it seems to only show who was on the ice for the icing, not who committed it.
Thanks dude.
I like Nurse but the man can not make a long pass for the life of him. I don’t know if the NHL keeps icing stats but if they do then Darnell must be the runaway leader, it’s embarrassing.
Woodcroft and the Oilers would have details on every completed stretch pass and every icing that resulted for it being missed (and whether the passer or passee was more responsible for the miss) and the general resultant play that occurs after each event.
Two years ago, Jason Gregor pulled stretch pass data from Sportslogiq (a service to which I am pretty sure the Oilers subscribe as does Jason), and at the time, Darnell’s success rate on stretch passes at that time was ~ 67 or 68%, which was about average on the Oilers and also in the average range of the top 100 d-men in the league based on total attempts. Nurse was at the upper end of the range in terms of attempts. Most of those top 100 in the league fell in the 63-75% range in terms of completion. The Oilers d-men success rate was narrower, if I remember correctly, between 65to 72%.
Interesting tool to look at icings.
I was able to load the first page of player data (first 30 names) but that’s all. As you say it looks like a count of icings that occurred with a given player on the ice rather than who committed them.
The table is sorted by icings +/- (more icings for a players team than against) and the top 5 this season are:
Kadri
Weegar
R Johansen
Panarin
Scheifele
(Weegar, Klingberg, Fox, Girard and Karlsson are the top Dmen listed)
No Nurse or other Oilers in the top 30 (though McDavid and Pulujarvi made the top 30 last season).
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
3h
For those asking..
.
#Oilers have 10th most icings in league.
Most individual icings in league:
Dahlin 42
Hamilton and Giordano 36
Pionk and Letang 34
Nurse and Dunn 33
Gostisbehere and Burns 32
Skjei 31
Thanks @Sportlogiq
Prospectenacity!
Petrov has been unstoppable lately as he has climbed into a tie for 3rd in OHL scoring, three points off the lead. He will get the opportunity to cement his place on the podium when the puck drops at 5 p.m. Janvier time.
The narrative that Puljujarvi only tries sometimes or was only good last night because of Laine is a bunch of BS.
IMO, he was the spark that started the 6 game win streak. In the Kings game, when the Oilers were getting destroyed and showing no life, PJ threw a massive hit and took a fight he had no business taking (as he has no idea how to fight).
Yet since that game, it seems like most media only remember/give credit to the Kostin fight. His hands might be made of stone, and some nights he may go the wrong way in the offensive zone, but you cannot question his heart and effort.
The Oilers need more players like Jesse Puljujarvi, not less.
Just imagine 20 Jesses on the roster. 80GF!
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Hearing VAN and Kuzmenko closing in on a 2-year extension at $5.5M AAV
Kevin Weekes
@KevinWeekes
**Breaking News** https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f6a8.svg https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4f0.svg
@Canucks have signed F Kuzmenko to 2 Yr Contract Extension at $5.5M AAV and 13 team No Trade list. @espn @NHL @NHLNetwork @TSNHockey @DKSportsbook #HockeyTwitter
He’s got likely 2 years where elias Peterson is still under contract – makes sonlme sense but an suprised he didn’t test market.
Likely wants to pad the NHL resume before going after a big payday.
Kypreos: “Hearing that the Stars and Devils are among teams that may be most aggressive for Canucks captain Bo Horvat. Both organizations want an extended playoff run and seem willing to pay for it.”
Horvat makes a ton of sense for the Devils. Hughes, Horvat, Hischier down the middle. Triple H!
Unlike the lock down boring Brodeur days these Devils are not your Daddy’s Devils this team can fly and they have group that can score. If this team gets solid Goaltending watch out.
The remarkable thing about the Devils is that they’ve given up the second fewest goals in the league and have TWO potential top pairing D likely to debut next season.
Puljujarvi had a great night with Foegele & MacLeod on the third line. He kept his game simple, which is exactly the way he needs to play and that is probably why he struggles with the big boys, they complicate his game. I would certainly like to see that third line on
a regular basis.
The other thing I wanted to say, is that I didn’t notice Gavrikov very much last night.
That might be a good thing, he might be a good acquisition. But IMO, one of Kulak, Barrie or Ceci could be options in that trade acquisition.
With the strong play of Bouchard & Desharnais, one of Ceci or Barrie might be available and with the strong play of Broberg, I would think Kulak might be available as well.
I wouldn’t venture into how a deal might look, it’s all hypothetical. Puljujarvi may not even need be in the deal. LOL
As much fun as it is to see Bouchard and Broberg progress, there is no way Im heading into playoffs with them positioned above Barrie, Ceci or Kulak.
Barrie’s not going anywhere this season
Ceci at his contract number isn’t going anywhere.
Kulak isn’t egregiously overpaid but th3 composition of D definitely could stand an adjustment and his spot is most vulnerable.
Desharnais is also in the mix. Whatever happens it will be lots of fun.
No offense Jessica, but I liked you better when you were a song.
Lowetide speculates on the radio program that Puljujarvi was likely motivated to play well because he was facing Laine. I can think of three million reasons why he should be highly motivated for the other games on the schedule as well.
He did have his best game I can see Columbus or Carolina in his future. I’ve been watching this team since they were the Alberta Oilers and no one player came close to having the stone hands that Jesse has. That has to be his nickname Hey Stone Hands great game last night keep it up and the Fairy Godmother might bless you with some pixie dust and you’ll score a couple of Goals before the season ends.
They should just start firing it at his head to bounce it in off that gigantic bucket.
I always thought it looked too small for him…
You’re not wrong 😏
Just call him Young Kiviset Kädet
(Finnish for stone hands)
I would suggest that the problem with shrugging off a game you should have won is you’re trying to set a standard for excellence and what baseline performance looks like.
This doesn’t mean an HC should lose it after every loss to a team they should beat, but he should do it at least once. What would Scottie Bowman or Glen Sather do? As master motivators, they would pick their spots but there was usually one bag skate or trashing the white board moment per season.
Losses like the one last night occur because of complacency and a team should never be complacent. This is a much bigger challenge for coaches today because the rules of engagement have changed substantially and today’s players can shutdown if the motivational tactics are perceived as too aggressive.
But seriously Woodcroft, set the standard. Are you a contender or pretender, because serious contenders don’t lose home games to lottery wannabes.
Woody reportedly went nuclear between periods right around the time of the players’ meeting. I think it was the game prior.
And yet here we are again.
I’d be curious as to what ‘nuclear’ means in modern parlance? For guys like Torts or Hitch, yelling is like breathing. I do wonder if gentle Jay has what it takes to get in a player’s face and light a fire under them?
I forget who the coach was but one HC once said “Some guys will play hard cos they love you. Some guys will play hard cos they hate you. I’m fine with it either way as long as they play hard.” That’s the mentality an HC needs. Most guys will chase the carrot but when they stop chasing it, the HC has to use the stick.
I don’t think screaming at guys over a Columbus game is smart. There is so much time in between games right now. Guys have ten days to forget (or make fun of you) for tossing a stick in the stands. Your stars are all heading to the ASG for fun times, no need to ruin that. I also don’t think you do i after what you saw against TBay, SEA and VEG. The can lay it on the line, not every game is worth laying it on the line. Especially when you grabbed a point which they did last night.
An HC needs to keep perspective on which losses are bad losses and those that aren’t.
Louie and Jack last night noted that the 80’s powerhouses never had a winning streak longer than seven games. Said when asked team members would say “ya whatever we lost our focus for a game. It happened. We knew when we needed to tighten it up though.”
Its about Peaking and staying healthy for these guys.
That 80s team likely doesn’t lose to Calgary in 86 if they were more consistent in their baseline standards and less inclined to ‘tightening up’ when they needed too imo.
I do agree that the timing for a wakeup rant is less than ideal because of the all star break.
As painful as it was I looked at the box scores of that series and what stands out are the amount of penalties dished out. Are you ready for this here goes
Game (1) 29 penalties
Game (2) 23 penalties
Game (3) 8 penalties
Game (4) 49 penalties
Game (5) 25 penalties
Game (6) 11 penalties
game (7) 9 penalties
The passion and the hatred was real now all the players are buddies with each other and the scrubs of the league are making more coin than Doctor’s.
Totally agree with you. I watched Woody’s postgame presser and was thoroughly unimpressed. I get he wants to protect his players and be positive. But I felt it was ridiculous and insulting for him to suggest he really liked his team’s effort and that Columbus is “well coached” and on and on.
Jay, you guys, who should allegedly be a contender, lost to the LAST PLACE TEAM! Don’t insult the fan’s intelligence. Here are the facts, your team had 27 giveaways, played inefficiently and often mismanaged the puck. Defensive efforts were poor, and you lost a clear game you should have won. You can’t win em all, but that’s not an excuse for the Oilers once again playing down to their opposition. Also, I thought his coaching was poor last night.
That was a frustrating hockey game last night. I agree with LT that the team didn’t lack in effort but they lacked in execution, finish and, well, smart play.
Listening to the sports talk shows and reading through the Oilogosphere, one would think that Oilers are mired in a long slump and bordering on a top lottery pick.
Just my opinion but “calm your tits”.
The game sucked but it was one game.
Yes, the Oilers are better than the Jackets, much better, and should beat them most times. The Oilers will beat them most times and, frankly, probably should have won last night. THey played like crap but had the higher expected goals on NST, way more high danger chances (per the Cult) and more 5-alarm chances (per the Cult).
That matches my eye test.
The main reason the Oilers only got one point: Korpisalo outplayed SKinner last night – end stop. Korpisalo made a couple 5-alarm stops and, while Skinner also made a couple real nice saves, Skinner also let in two that, well, didn’t need to go in – goals Korpisalo didn’t let in. Game!
The Oilers had 8 against non-playoff teams. I would suggest that anyone that expected the Oilers to get 16 points had unreasonable expectations. I don’t think the Leafs, Devils, Rangers, Stars or even the Bruins would expect that.
I “expect” the Oilers to get 12 points from these 8 games.
If they have poor execution and finish and play “not smart” again against Chicago, while I won’t catastrophize, I will certainly be more concerned.
This is an awesome review and outlook IMO.
Balanced, pointing out the things that can be cleaned up, sending a bit of shade where needed (Bouch, Stu and Drai for moi) but also pointing out that all the stats save for the most important tilted Oilers.
Crap happens and sometimes you bone one for one instead of taking the two.
Accept it, reflect quick and move on.
Personally I’m happy we’re back to even numbers for calculating points. Looks cleaner on the standings page 😉
It’s just the Oiler way. They seem to like to make things difficult on themselves, they have lost multiple games against lesser opponents. If they just took care of business, they would be leading the division comfortably.
All teams lose multiple games against lesser opponents though.
Before last night, the Oilers had lost a grand total of 2 games to the bottom third of the league and had one of the best points percentages in the NHL in such games.
Paying fans went away unhappy again. Seems like the team reverted to the way they played before the win streak. No emotion, passive and listless hockey. Was sad really. I noted it in the first period, but some here turned a blind eye to what was clearly going to be a very poor effort. I like the team that stands up for each other, throws some hits and goes to the net like mad dogs. The team we saw last night was none of those things. That’s twice now in the past few weeks that the Oilers let a bottom feeder team come into their building, blow a lead, and walk away with the two points. If I am paying for it, I am asking for my money back.
The Oilers hadn’t lost to a team below .500 since before Christmas, more than a month ago.
They’ve only played 4 sub-.500 teams in that time:
ANA 6-2 win
SJS 7-1 win
VAN 4-2 win
CBJ 2-3 OTL
I’m not in a mood to squabble about dates. Vancouver came into Edmonton and pounded the oilers 5-2 in their own building and it wasn’t pretty. You saw it, I saw it, and so did the entire world, yet you deny. Bottom line is, a bottom feeder came into the Oilers building and took the two points from a team who is supposed to be entertaining the paying fans. What was worse to be quite frank, was the godamn band. The horns were bad and couldn’t hold a note and drove me crazy all night. The team was listless and there was very little to talk about driving away from that game. There was very little entertainment for a large amount of cash.
Bouchard’s pass to the Oilers slot right onto the Columbus stick in the 3rd should put him in the pressbox for a game.
Was JP auditioning himself to Columbus last night?
Why is Janmark/Nuge/Kostin not a thing now? when it was such a successful thing before Janmark got sick.
Nurse not passing to Draisaitl to begin overtime and skate it into the Columbus zone with no plan other then to shit himself.. Tied this in with the defenders if they don’t try the long stretch pass they huff it across the mid ice to just hammer it down into the goalie, that only allows the opposition to reset and attack with a game plan again.. I hate it. Make a pass, keep control, set up shop. Watching Columbus with their 3 road wins come in and make a pass, carry it in, set up shop.. Why does Manson have the D just hammering it in hoping for a turnover? Keep control of the puck! It’s a real simple first tactic.
I saw that pass and my first thought was “is he trying to lose the game?”. No wait – its Columbus that should be accused of tanking for Bedard
Shocked Bouchard’s game did not get more mentions today….
JP – When you are not a threat to score, why would you increase his ice-time?
Found the chatbot!
but he was a thread to score. He created the 1st goal. He almost created another goal (caused the sequence the led to his own 5-alarm chance where the goalie made a great save). He has a history of being a 14-15 goal scorer in this league so, normal “regression” would mean a few more are likely to go in.
His ice time being cut, let alone increased as it should have been, is indeed a real shocker.
Draisaitl was “pissy” last night. His body language was horrendous many times. He’s expected to lead by example to all the “kids” on the team but many nights it seems like he plays for himself not the team. Very disappointed in him last night.
We can be sure of what we see
Drai is constantly turning pucks over at a high rate, more than normal. Regardless of what is happening in the game
He makes Superman plays continuously, they have a low success rate, he’s not Connor as he says
If you are constantly trying to make impossible plays and creating turnovers when it isn’t necessary, and so are losing the goal share which is the whole point, by definition you are playing like you are the team, not for the team
Add constant long shifts and super slow getting off on a change and well I think that’s selfish
A lot of complaints about the Oiler’s current breakout system, the stretch pass in particular, and many have a view that it is not working.
In the 14 games in the month since the Christmas break, the Oilers have the 3rd best team record in the NHL, whether by points (20) or points% (.714) a time period where their style of play has been fairly consistent. That is in large part due to their outscoring the opposition 37-24 at 5 on 5, which is driven by very strong possession metrics pretty much across the board. Leading up to Christmas, the Oilers amassed points at a .543 clip, having been outscored at 5 on 5 67GF 75GA. The possession metrics were pretty flat across the board. Now the OIlers may have started using the more frequent use of the stretch pass some time before Christmas, but it has certainly been a regular feature lately.
The Oilers play at 5 on 5 has been pretty consistent game to game as well. In the 14 games, they have had the edge in overall possession metrics in all but 2 games. the loss to Colorado and the win over Calgary. As I pointed out yesterday, Calgary always leads the shot total and often by a lot, but unlike last season, they just can’t score very well.
The Oilers have only given up 3 – 5 on 5 goals against twice in those 14 games (both Oiler’s victories). Before Christmas, they gave up 3+ goals at 5 on 5 in a game 11 times.
Woody and his staff don’t look at their breakout strategy as an isolated component of their 5 on 5 game. All facets of the game are connected in an overall plan both within the game and over the course of a season. At a minimum, it affects how the other team defends, how the OIlers forecheck, and how much time the puck is in their end. Change the breakout strategy and other components of the team’s system would have to adjust as well. It is quite probable that Woody would say that the Oilers recent overall team success lately is helped because of using the stretch pass rather than despite using it.
Based on the current overall team success, I don’t see Woody making any major changes very soon, but I have no doubt he will keep making subtle changes over time and adapt to how the Oilers are executing it and how the other teams defend it.
Was just thinking about posting on the same thing.
The Oilers have been very much improved since Christmas (a bit before, but that’s a good break point). It’s been on the offense and defense side, but the D has improved more.
What Woodcroft has changed is working, even though the Oilers did not win last night.
I have no issues and see no issues with the stretch pass. It’s like dumping the puck in the corner. It’s not a play you should look at in isolation, although people really seem to want to and do.
So I have heard a lot about the “McDavid” problem lately, mostly concerning his 5v5 GF%, which is currently at 50.9% according to Natural Stat trick, and far below his ordinary track record. McDavid’s GF% haven’t been this low since Holland’s arrival, and until recently, had been floundering below 50% for the first time in his career.
I took a deep dive at the last two years trying to decipher what might be going on, and I think I have the solution.
I looked at McDavid’s 5v5 numbers with all 4 of the goalies the Oilers have played in the last two years. Their numbers are as follows:
So far nothing suprising pops out. Between all of the goalies, McDavid has kept fairly consistent in terms of his CF%, FF%, and Shots for %. If you squint hard here, you can see that Smith’s puckhandling might have a tiny effect on the Shots for/ Against.
After I looked at the shots metrics to ensure that the captain didn’t take any big dives or poor performance patches with any one goalie, I looked at the scoring rates.
These metrics show that, while McDavid hasn’t changed and appears to be scoring and defending at about the same pace when comparing goalies, he is not outscoring when Campbell is on the ice. A rough estimate would show he scores around the same pace with all 4 goalies, but the Goals against are brutal. All 3 goalies kept their GA/60 to 2.6 or lower with 97, where Campbell has allowed a goal and a half more per 60 than the others. He has also allowed 23 goals, which is more than Smith in fewer minutes, but also very near to Skinner and Koskinen despite nearly double the ice time.
I am not here to pick on Campbell, and he is definitely picking his game up and hopefully entering a heater at the perfect time. He has played MUCH better as of late and that is fantastic. But I would not be concerned with the perceived dip in McD’s performance, since it would appear he has been Goalered.
Take away the 8 goals above what Campbell is expected to allow, which would coincidentally also bring his GA/60 to 2.6 (the same as Koskinen) and McDavid’s GF% is 54.7%, which is much better, if not a tad low still for him.
McDavid is flying and is not the problem. He has run into bad luck though. His PDO is .990, which is below his career average of 1.10. His on ice shooting percentage is a paltry 9.96%, which is the absolute lowest of his career so far. He has never had an OSH% below 10, and is usually around 11-12%. This means, he is likely due for another heater, despite leading the league in scoring by an incredible margin.
In summary, Campbell was historically bad to begin this season and has hampered the stats of even the superstars, which puts them in a much worse lens than they should be, considering the goals against were, in general, not their fault.
One factor may be McDavid’s shot volume.
He has obviously made the choice to shoot more often and has said so resulting in more goals but a lower percentage.
Do you have any facts to support your theory? At 5 on 5 (the game state being discussed) his shooting rate per 60 is almost identical to last season.
Might be mixing up a stat here.
I think ONSH% is sum of all skaters and not McDavid himself. A quick glance at ESPN has his personal shooting percentage which is running a career high of 19.7, which is INSANE for the goal leader).
That said I think your analysis is correct though.
McDavid is shooting more and he’s scoring, a bunch on the PP. His assist rate is down though and that is reflected in the ONSH%. Two reasons are less chances overall since McDavid goaling. The other was the Nov-XMas stretch that saw his line mates run cold on the scoring front.
So PDO
in a nutshell!
A few days ago I posted some of the team‘s basic stats against league conference and division
All top 3 except SV% which ranged from 6th to 12th iirc
They are hanging in lately with the top teams despite not having hot goalering as most of the others do
The bad is that they don’t have hot goalies. The good is that isn’t hiding team weaknesses as it did last season, and may be for the comp
I kind of get why Woody went with Skinner I myself would of started Campbell. Jack’s on a roll and as a Coach you get all the points you can when the getting is good. Campbell 14-8-1 Skinner 13-10-3 I don’t care about the other stats it’s all about wins. I believe Campbell makes more timely saves than Skinner does if we’re winning a Cup it’s with Campbell in my opinion.
McDavid is 272-213-43 lifetime…. Jake Debrusk is 227-91-40.
Clearly Debrusk is the superior player!
Richard Brodeur 691 wins 3 Stanley Cups that’s all Richard needs to say if someone starts trash talking him. Wins Cups = The Best Ever.
Martin?
King Richard guy didn’t win much of anything.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=588
Edit: on closer look he did win an Avco Cup.
Not if he is talking to Patrick Roy – 4 cups. And in the playoffs Roy’s record is 151 wins and 94 losses vs “Martin” Brodeur at 113 wins and 91 losses. And he won 3 Conn Smythe trophies as the most valuable player in the playoffs compared to none for Brodeur.
And if winning is all that matters, 11 goalies have won more Stanley Cups than Brodeur.
Ken Dryden has 6 Stanley Cups in only 7 full seasons in the NHL, to go along with a Conn Smythe, the best career save % of any goalie over 200 GP and easily the best winning percentage (.758. points percent – would have been higher if he played with OT instead of regulation ties).
The passing last night was horrendous!
The oilers were completely out of sync and ran into a hot goaltender. This is type of loss I expected first game back from Allstar break but not now!. At least we got a point. Our division is so tight and everyone seems to be holding their spot. Thank god for the month of January or it would a much different vibe in oil country right now.
I would agree, their passing was horrendous, and they were out of sync in general, especially the top six, and sorry LT Puljujarvi wasn’t going to help them in any way.
These factors contributed greatly to Korpisalo’s good night.
You posted last night after the first that Jesse was the team’s best player. Seems odd that you don’t think he could have helped. He created the team’s first goal. He started the play that created another 5-alarm chance (his own) where the goalie made a fantastic pad save.
He usually struggles with the star players on the team. Plays better as a third liner. Perhaps he is more relaxed. The star players weren’t themselves last night either. So, I don’t believe it’s odd at all.
I think he deserved as least as much ice time as he had been getting, potentially elevated minutes as Woody cut the bench, but he got 2:02 in the 3rd period and none in the last 10 minutes (apx).
I thought he deserved more ice in the third than, say, Janmark who got 6 minutes in the period.
I hope they can get A.J. Greer. Maybe wishful thinking, but he kind of reminds me of Kevin McClelland. They need more grit and maybe someone to light the fire. Also need a dman. Or they wait until next year and go all in. Lt is right in the needs of this team.
I don’t think he plays center. But yeah, he would be good on the fourth line and provide some grit.
I’m not sure why the Bruins would trade away any player from their roster that plays nightly – and one that is league min through the end of next season…..?
Foolishly, I thought that 19:55 5v5 TOI for Nurse-Ceci was a typo.
I saw Bouch and Barrie bad last night
With respect to the stretch pass, it used to be that McD and Drais would cycle very low and get the puck with some fresh ice in our high slot and then steamroll through the neutral zone. The new strategy is to hit the forwards around centre ice. It isn’t working well.
I wonder if the coaches felt Bouch and others had this pass down. They don’t.
Stretch passes should be an exception, not a rule.
Nurse needs to stop with the stretch icing….his passes recently are on the escalator to nowhere….
Nurse’s icings per 60 is off the charts. Put him on the PK and tell him to visualize head-manning the puck. PK issue solved.
I thought Bouchard defended just fine, but my God, he made some horrendous decisions with the puck. Just brutal turnovers.
Didn’t really notice Barrie until he got walked out of the corner on the 2nd goal. He looked reeaally bad on that one.
I think Kulak might have been the worst dman out there last night. He was getting beat out of the corner, and off the end boards, all night long. I have not been impressed with his season so far. I liked the signing, but it is starting to look like another overpay if he can’t handle second pairing minutes and matchups. He’s a great skater, and as a result, he can defend the blueline on the rush and skate the puck out of trouble. But his vision and passing is subpar, and he loses a lot of physical, one on one battles down low. I would like to see Broberg start taking more of his minutes and I really want to see Broberg instead of Kulak in overtime.
I think the whole team looked sloppy with the puck last night. The one exception may have been JP. He looked fast and ultra aggressive. Best game I’ve seen from him in a long time. You’re right LT, he should have gotten a lot more ice time. Maybe the coach will recognize this on the game film and reward him on Saturday. 🤔
Bring in Gavrikov.
Actually I think it IS working and in fact I think it’s become the signature play of this team. We’ve made countless 100 foot passes to the blue line that have led to almost instant goals.
This is in large part, I believe, a counter to the shadowing McDavid has dealt with against the Danaults of the world. He comes back low and ZIP Hyman has it at the other blue and the support is coming. Or if he does get the puck there’s room to skate because the wingers have pulled the D way back.
I do agree that three stretching is a problem but I’m not sure I’ve seen much of that.
I thought Bouchard was terrible .
The stretch pass was a problem last night.
Jesse and Holloway were great. Jesse needed more ice time
Skinner can’t let in the 2nd goal for sure and thezOT goal was not good.
Drai was somewhere else last night
Kostin has done nothing the last 2-3 games.
Definitely can’t let a point get away like that one last night
There are weird coaching things – stretch pass, have the D sag the blue line when last year Woodcroft and Manson had them standing up and denying entry.
Now in the last couple of games we’ve had Ceci and Nurse sprinting to the point off a faceoff and the puck ends up in the net. Can’t recall off the top of my head seeing other teams do this.
With Ceci I thought maybe they were confused by a set play but then Nurse was doing it last night.
The stretch pass I do wonder if this is the forwards just fleeing the zone again. Coach after coach has had a problem with this. They still don’t commit defensively.
Agreed the stretch pass was a problem last night and I think for much of the season. I lost count of how many times they tried a stretch pass to a forward who was immediately behind a defender. That’s not even a 50-50 pass and it’s an answer to a prayer if it actually works. If it’s not intercepted it’s usually going for an icing call followed up with a fire drill in their own zone.
Agree with LT that they weren’t outworked they just weren’t working smart. Countless passes to behind or too far in front or to nobody in particular.
I also think they’re not the best at adjusting their system when things aren’t working. If the stretch pass isn’t working for this game, maybe it’s time to try something else.
It will be interesting to see how they come out for their next game. Hopefully they’ve learned their lesson and they’ll be a LOT sharper than they were last night.
Oooh I am going to complain, for the first time ever, about McDavid. That’s probably about the worst I’ve ever seen someone play a 3v3 overtime.
Yes, it was very odd how bad he and Leon were in the OT.
Seems a 50/50 magic/gassed coin toss.
It’s ok to lose in overtime as it is back and forth but it’s frustrating when guys refuse to change on time and then coast around out there. At the 45 second mark the Oilers had possession and Columbus changed. McDavid and Draisaitl decided not to change. 3 on 3 is all about the line changes. Woodcroft needs to get a handle on this. 45 seconds max. Draisaitl sets a terrible example for the younger players. Look at me I’m better than all of you on the bench even when I’m gassed and straight legged out here. Nuge was caught out there last night but Draisaitl is the culprit 99% of the time.
It’s funny, I was looking at the Oilers 3 on 3 numbers earlier. Draisaitl is only 2GF-2GA this season, but he’s easily the best Oiler if you look over the past 3 years (9GF-4GA). McDavid is also 2-2 this year, but is 10-8 over 3 years.
Draisaitl is 30-15 3v3 goals for his career, so he’s actually been really exceptional in OT.
I honestly don’t mind the long shifts. It was the lack of puck management, the most important thing in 3v3, that was the killer.
McDavid tried to force an extremely low percentage pass to Nurse, who was already peeling out of the zone to get back on defence, and later flipped a bizarre short but very high lob pass which was presumably meant for Draisaitl but landed square on the Columbus d-man. Just bad plays in concept as well as execution. You don’t often survive multiple giveaways in OT and those were glaring ones.
It was a theme…
I was going to type that I was shocked that Drai (and McDavid) didn’t change when they had that chance but I wasn’t really – disappointed and frustrated but not shocked.
It’s a weird season when this is the problem:
YBB syndrome (Yzerman before Bowman) with these two. Still waiting for the YAB.