The genesis of the current Edmonton Oilers walked to the NHL draft stage in the summer of 2011. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has seen it all, and at this point the only thing left is playoff success, and Stanley. Yesterday afternoon, the Oilers were flat, tired and then flat-out tired. That’s not representative of this team, and they’ll have another chance to climb into first place in the Pacific this season. When that happens next carpe diem. For Nuge.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The Oilers’ asset cost in an Erik Karlsson trade and why it’s worth it
- Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s top Oilers linemates and what it could mean for trade plans
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland NHL trade deadline Q&A
- Lowetide: Three ways the Oilers could improve without a big trade deadline deal
- Lowetide: How the Oilers finally found the key to five-on-five outscoring
- DNB: With Kailer Yamamoto nearing a return, which Oilers could be salary-cap casualties?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- New DNB: How Oilers’ Stuart Skinner learned to be a pro — and an NHL All-Star
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- DNB: Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins matters more to the Oilers now than ever before
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers ride high-flying offence to strong January finish
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
- February actual result: 2-1-1, 5 points in four games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 30-19-5, 65 points in 54 games
Edmonton’s loss yesterday afternoon puts them below 100 points as the 82-game projection. The Oilers are now tracking at 99 points, a sure playoff berth. It was a disappointing game in Montreal, and my projection for the trip (six points) was not reached, but five points out of the break is far from a disaster. Edmonton heads into Monday week in third place Pacific, with a more difficult schedule ahead.
SUMMARY
Take my word for it, running the usual summary isn’t worth it. The NST summary is here, and the highlights are:
- Connor McDavid had five HDSC, same as Zach Hyman.
- Connor McDavid had a chance to get the puck out on the second GA, it was caught at the blue line by a Montreal player. A miscue, but the ghastly play from all involved afterward was the major issue.
- Leon Draisaitl pulled the chute through the neutral zone on a play that resulted in a goal, the “he’s lazy” group howled in derision but I think the big man is laboring due to injury. Scored a goal, his last two games have been stronger to my eye.
- Evan Bouchard had two assists, but took a penalty (Montreal scored on the PP), and then turned over the puck in lacksidasical fashion on the PP, and that resulted in a goal. Not a good look. I think he might be in a bit of trouble as an Oilers player.
SHOPPING IN THE RIGHT AISLES
I’m not sure what will come of this deadline, but am encouraged by the Oilers shopping in the right aisles. Chasing Erik Karlsson has an analytics bite to it. Edmonton has done some good things in the last few years, like signing Zach Hyman, Tyson Barrie, Evander Kane and trades for Brett Kulak and Klim Kostin.
By far the biggest part of the team (52 percent) remains the drafted group (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Vincent Desharnais, Stuart Skinner), almost all (Broberg, Holloway the exceptions) inherited by Ken Holland.
His teams have made the playoffs each season and the final four once. Pushing for higher ground involves adding quality veterans. Pursuing Erik Karlsson seems a little more “analytics” than the procurement to this point in time. Encouraging. We’ll see how this goes.
DRAFT TALK
I’ll be honest, at this point the Oilers look like a team that is about to trade two of their top three picks, so we might be looking at a four-player draft this summer. Currently the team is scheduled to draft Nos. 23, 55, 87, 151, 183 and 215. I’ll guess Nos. 23 and 87 are going at the deadline. We’ll see.
Scott Wheeler has his “Ranking the Top 50 Draft Prospects” ranking up today, Edmonton has two names on the list and two more honorable mentions. Wheeler does exceptional work, for me he and Corey Pronman are the gold standard.
I’ll have my “Top 62 names in the NHL draft for 2023” list up this week. It’s unliike any other list because math is king. It is worth reading, and I have another example. Wheeler ranks Jordan Dumais No. 24 on his list. Dumais was chosen No. 64 by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2022. I had him ranked No. 19 on my list. It happens every year.
Edmonton would choose Reid Schaefer at No. 32, that’s the only pick they used before Dumais was chosen. Schaefer’s scoring has slowed markedly, partly because the Seattle Thunderbirds are loaded and the big man isn’t getting the same kind of power-play time this season. One year ago, Schaefer’s even strength pts-game total was .58 (21-17-38 in 66 games). This season at even strength, he is 15-12-27 in 37 games (.73 pts-game). Schaefer is 2-3-5 on the PP, 2-2-4 on the PK this season.
Will he have a career on an NHL skill line? Here are the overall points-game totals for Oilers draft picks in their final WHL season going back to 2010.
- Jordan Eberle 57, 50-56-106 (1.86)
- Leon Draisaitl 32, 19-34-53 (1.66)
- Kailer Yamamoto 40, 21-43-64 (1.6)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 69, 31-75-196 (1.54)
- Curtis Hamilton 62, 26-56-82 (1.32)
- Tyler Benson 58, 27-42-69 (1.19)
- Tyler Pitlick 56, 27-35-62 (1.11)
- Reid Schaefer 37, 19-17-36 (.973)
- Greg Chase 61, 20-39-59 (.967)
- Mitchell Moroz 70, 35-28-63 (.900)
- Jackson Houck 56, 20-33-53 (.946) (20)
- Drew Czerwonka 40, 14-18-32 (.800)
- Jake Chiasson 53, 14-27-41 (.773)
- Travis Ewanyk 58, 8-15-23 (.397)
- Cameron Abney 60, 7-13-20 (.333)
As always, math has a strong opinion on Reid Schaefer and is decidedly unconvinced he’ll be an NHL regular, let alone a skill winger on an NHL team. The top four names all emerged as significant skill talents in the world’s best league, that’s followed by Curtis Hamilton (played one NHL game), Tyler Benson (38) and Tyler Pitlick (362).
No player below Schaefer made the NHL. I would say that this is a player we should project as a bottom-six winger based on today’s information. He may spike. However, if part of the ask in the Erik Karlsson deal is the big Seattle winger, the Oilers should make him available.
One final note: Travis Ewanyk and Cameron Abney were third-round picks. Jake Chiasson was a fourth. He may not make it but is a far better bet.
Moving Ceci makes the most sense. He has no offensive upside, has struggled with 1D duties, is a culprit on a very mediocre PK and has been carried by Nurse the last six weeks. He isn’t overly aggressive, he doesn’t bust cycles well, he isn’t great at moving guys in front of the net. He doesn’t outlet too well, he doesn’t hold the line well, he isn’t super quick to get back on jailbreaks. He’s a perfectly fine and serviceable RHD, no doubt, but is far and away the least likely to “jump” up in development. His current contract reflects his value and it can be traded away IMO.
A combo of EK, Nurse, Vinny, Bro and Bouch I’m sure can cover off Ceci’s mammoth, awesomeness on the PK that some folks have mentioned.
Meanwhile you now have genuine puck movers on every pairing, you don’t mess up the Bro/Bouch transition to 2nd Pair, you force Bouch into a bridge deal for Kulak money, and you have three dmen on the back end playing mop up that will stay cheap. EK and Nurse is a fun idea. EK and Broberg could be even more fun in a year, Nurse/Bouch don’t have the worst results and the odds that Barrie comes back on a Kulak priced contract after this one increase.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
Ceci clearly and obviously should be the one going back in a trade for EK.
You’re appraisal of Ceci reminds me of George Best’s opinion of Beckham – (paraphrasing) he doesn’t score much, he can’t shoot with his left, he doesn’t head the ball or tackle, but other than that he’s pretty good
Yes Cody Ceci and David Beckham are in the same conversation.
Edmonton loves its borderline NHL defensemen. They’d rather cast off the youngins with sideburns than the guy who hit peak.
EK is a clear upgrade on Ceci in every imaginable way and the blog is offended by the idea he is the one out rather than an absolute meat grinder of a trade that messes up a record setting PP and casts off a 23 year old in his second full season.
Why is that? Ceci isn’t a tough trucelent player. He hasn’t led the fight or standup for McDavid brigade. He’s a perfectly serviceable 3.25 million RHD playing above his ceiling. EK would do a better job in that role and Bouchard will be better than Ceci in that role as soon as next October.
He’s obviously the guy to go.
A weird lot this place is sometimes a weird lot.
People gnashing their keyboards about trading Bouch, likening it to our disposal of Petry, Jultz, Poti have it backwards.
I don’t recall anyone missing Eric Brewer in the Pronger trade.
I missed woywitka.
Sabres powerplay. Helluva call by the refs actually, tough penalty to see. Stick up through the legs that hit the hands.
Sabres give up a shortie on a turnover on an awkward zone entry. Goalie was weak too.
Management doubts on Bouchard are fair, are they not?
Just because the Oilers have explored an option doesn’t mean this is the way they will go. Bouchard, avec warts, is still a heckuva player and no one knows what lies at the other end of his curve. Head office will be weighing costs and benefits trying to figure out the best course to take. The splash might not even be at D. We just don’t know when a team is poking around, as Holland seems to be.
I’d like to say the splash won’t even be big, necessarily, but I’m having trouble convincing myself in that regard. I think it will be big. This is a buyer’s market, and thus the time to identify the under-valued pieces and make a move.
I still think Toews. Be easier than Karlsson despite the similar price tag because expiring. Easier to get double-retained too. Kane there also subverts his acquisition cost. Adding him means Nuge can play up the line-up. Karlsson would have a bigger impact maybe because he plays at the top end of the roster, but getting him would also take away more in terms of depth. That’s not an in-season move because of the roster disturbance.
Doesn’t mean it can’t happen in the summer though…
Is there concern with Toews’ health though?
He’s now missed a week with illness (non-Covid) and lets not forget he missed an entire (shortened) season due to long-Covid issues….
Of course, there is. And I’m not sure you have that correct, but your experts will talk to my experts…
If the condition persists it’s an issue, otherwise not at all, but I won’t get my panties into a knot worrying about a future that may not exist. Word is, this is non-Covid, but none of us have any idea of whether that’s good news or bad…
But the flu does not stop teams from making trades. The day it does, is the day it won, the day it beat humans.
We’ll see how it goes for the Kings, but teams behind the Oilers struggling tonight so far.
Calgary with the OT loss to Ottawa
Minnesota with the SO loss to Florida
Nashville with the regulation loss to Arizona
Flames with a 3-1 lead with just over 2 minutes left, lose in OT.
This does not make me sad.
HA!
Continuing Markstrom voodoo.
Basically even with Cambell now (.890 vs .891)
Ken Holland has now got a team close to achieving leadership in the Pacific Division for a very long time.
RNH’s emergence is never going to get the astonishing kind of reaction that I’m giving him. Have been watching him since he was an undersized squirt that got himself half killed by a mean veteran while dazzling as a rookie – he then changed his game 70 degrees to survive in the NHL long enough to grow into his man body.
Now that he’s grown up fully he’s going to realize an exceptional second half to his career. That Holland got him on a value contract speaks highly for both the player and his agent. In fact, Holland is going to have to pull a similar rabbit out of his hat to land Karlsson/Kane.
Will Ken Holland land either Karlsson/Kane?
If you think yes: press Thumbs Up
If you think no: press Thumbs Down
I don’t think Patrick Kane makes a lick of sense with his clearly debilitating hip issues…..
Lets not forget, P. Kane, one of the best US born players of all time, is also a very poor defensive player – I”m not sure he works on either McDavid nor Drai’s right wing given the foregoing (noting the top 2 LWs on this team are not noted defensive players either, E. Kane and Hyman).
So….our biggest weakness is Kulak at 2LD.
The answer? Trade our depth and future for 1RD Erik Karlsson!
Really?
This must be the first time in history that I agree with Spector over Lowetide.
What’s Spector saying? I don’t often agree with him, but I’m for Chychrun over Karlsson.
Sportsnet headline: “Karlsson to the Oilers? Sounds dreamy, but it’s not realistic”
Spector concludes, “Like Holland or not, by and large his work here has been pretty tidy. But can he afford to make a major splash on an $11.5 million player come March 3? Only in a fantasy world, folks. Only in a fantasy world.”
(I would paste the link but I not sure if that violates our gracious host’s guidelines?)
You can certainly post hockey links here without worry.
IIRC, Spector is not on the Chychrun train either.
I think some (many) think the biggest weakness is lack of 1RD (and some see the future 2LD being solidified fairly soon in Philip Broberg).
Ceci has been pretty good for us overall, especially in last year’s playoffs, even if he’s been up-and-down lately.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Broberg take the 2LD before too long, hopefully by the 2024 playoffs. A cheap UFA 2LD (or at least 2/3LD) could help to fill the temporary gap this year. It would provide depth, and maybe at least one of Broberg/Kulak/rental would be a decent 2LD at any given time. Either way, it would provide injury cover.
I agree on Broberg – I’ve said I think he’ll solidify himself as a legit 2LD and on the rise within 2-12 months. As far as this stop-gap UFA 2LD, there aren’t really many out there – Gavrikov is the only one I can think of unless Orlov becomes available and, for me, meh.
Ceci was very good last year and he and Nurse did yeomen’s work but I think we can all agree he’s better suited to a 2RD role (and that’s as high as he’s been in his career except maybe when he was Shultzed as a kid in Ottawa). I haven’t seen Ceci nearly as good nor consistent this season and, frankly, the numbers show he’s been a major draft on Nurse.
I’m not actually advocating for a 1RD need over a 2LD (and I can’t wrap my head around a Karlsson acquisition and the cost it would take to get the contract down to something that would be workable) but I understand the argument that a 1RD is an area of need.
Oh ya, I’m not convinced that Bouchard isn’t the 1RD to pair with Nurse sometime in the next 2-12 months and, yes, I acknowledge his struggles similar to Ceci.
I think Holland thinks those things too.
I think Kulak – Karlsson has the potential to be a very potent partnership. Ironically, the secret to plugging the “Kulak at 2LD” issue might be putting Kulak at 1LD.
Marc Methot carved out quite a career as Karlsson’s wingman.
i would say our biggest weakness is our 1rhd.
ceci struggles in the role, barrie cannot handle it, and while many of us think bouche could….the coaching staff seems hesitant which makes me wonder if they have some data we do not.
kulak has played 2nd pair all year and has a 50% xgf and gf. we saw him very effective in the playoffs last year and he has added a dimension of physicality we had previously not seen.
Everyone’s dazzed thinking about EK65 hitting CM97 on the tape at full stride.
What would this do to grow viewership of the game in general?
What would adding EK65 do to a historically good PP?
Would the refs put their whistles away during a playoff series since it would be such an unfair advantage?
At 5v5, you could run
Drai and McDavid with Kane and Nurse/Karlsson and it would basically be like a power play if you needed a goal.
I’m not positive it would increase the PP productivity materially, if at all.
Of course, Karlsson is tiers above Barrie as a dynamic offensive player but Barrie does have a chemistry with Nuge, McDavid, Drai who are on the flanks of the Oilers PP. I would think that Karlsson would “do just fine” on the Oiler PP and it would remain top of the league but I’m not sure it would get much, if any better, and it may take some time for Karlsson to settle in and develop that PP chemistry – it took Barrie a while in his first year recall.
My “research” went solely to P/60 rates at 5 on 4 – that’s it but, from a quick peruse, Barrie produced individual points at just as high a rate as Karlsson (higher in some points) even before he came to Edmonton.
Now, at 5 on 5 – well Karlsson is a game-changer there when he’s near the top of his game.
Yeah. I’m mostly referring to the 5v5 power play opportunity.
I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Karlsson improves the PP.
Agreed.
Tyson Barrie is close to elite at quarterbacking, especially with the players currently on PP1. Unless EK could be another option on entering the zone, I don’t see it getting a whole lot better. By eye, I feel like their struggle is getting into the zone and setting up. Some nights they struggle to do so.
EK is obviously an upgrade on Tyson Barrie, but it isn’t like we have a gaping hole in that position. We have Tyson Barrie and he is a heck of a hockey player.
I’m talking about the possibility of a 5v5 power play.
Nurse/Bouchard is 8-4 goals and 65% expected goals……
Only 31 minutes against elites but 1-0 goals and dominant underlying metrics in that small sample
To add some context to this:
Bouchard’s time with Nurse is often when the team is trailing. In other words, when needing goals Bouchard replaces Ceci. Those numbers are buoyed by score effects.
When trailing his xGF% w Nurse is 73%
When leading its 47%
(same small sample size warning applies obv)
Leading 31:45 67%GF (2-1 goals) 47% xGF
Tied — 32:43 75%GF (3-1 goals) 69% xGF
Trailing 42:30 60%GF (3-2 goals) 73% xGF
These are really really small samples.
so, overall, very good.
They are pretty much only together when the Oilers are behind, or at the end of a PP. Score effects.
That’s why I posed the numbers. Slightly more minutes when the Oilers are trailing, but not overwhelmingly – 30/30/40 basically.
Maybe 5-10% score effects, the rest is just small sample size 😉
The numbers posted by JP show only 42 out of 105 minutes of that is when trailing so, no.
Nurse/Bouchard also had an expected goal share near 58% last year in 524 minutes – they had a terrible PDO due to a 5.2% on ice shooting percentage.
Oh ya, last year, they were 6-5 goals WHEN LEADING in 130 minutes with an expected goals of 55%.
I know you only have one deployment for everything that works in your mind – its all black and white for you but it doesn’t seem to be in reality.
Nurse/Bouch seems to have worked in the past and this season despite your opinion that Bouchard NEEDS Broberg.
I guess the media tour continues as Holland was on with Gregor and Struds this afternoon:
1) Have you noticed an uptick – are the conversations becoming more real now? Ya, I would say so. Prior to the break, everybody had their pro scouts meetings, went through their planning and more games went on for teams to determine if the are going to buy or sell and, yes……. Holland gets cut off…….. Ken is back: More calls. I’ve talked to more people. Maybe it will happen this year sooner rather than later.
2) Struds asked about what pressure points are: Its got to be a fit. Need a buyer and a seller. Need a buyer with a need and a seller that’s worked that market and has a price in mind. You work towards a deal. Sometimes it can happen quick. Sometimes you have lots of conversations. There are probably some teams still trying to figure out what they want to do.
3) Gregor talks about the team points over the last years, etc. – asks if he’s more confidant than last year and willing to push in more chops – Obviously we’ve played at a high level. The thing really impacting us is being in LTIR. I decided I wanted to find a way to re-sign Evander Kane and I did that. I knew Mikko was leaving. I learned Smith had chronic ankle and neck issues so I was all in on a goalie. ON opening day we put Janmark on waivers and had a 21 man roster. Pretty soon we are going to be back there. We are dollar in and dollar out. Will I spend assets to try and upgrade (not add but upgrade)? We would be moving players out to try and bring someone in that’s better. Yes, ideally I will spend to upgrade. I am working the phones. If there is something that can make us a bit different, bit better, more prepared to push for the playoffs (we haven’t qualified yet, we’ve got a 4-5 point cushion but its close) – I’m working the phones but can’t make any promises. Its got to be a fit.
4) Gregor asks about the calls and if other managers talk about offers on the table that would need to be beat and if they are telling the truth: Well, you would know its not true if it doesn’t happen – certainly that person’s reputation for future deals will be hampered in my opinion. There is a respect factor in there. If someone says they’ve got something on the table and then end up trading him for half of what he’s telling you, you tuck that away for future reference. You want to do future deals. Its a 32 person fraternity. Its best to be up front. Who lot of different scenarios going on that impacts how the market works.
5) Struds asks, if he has a specific type of player, does he comb through the teams or what? First off, there are buyers and sellers. I’m not dealing with 31 teams. We are going to be a buyer or do nothing. We are not selling. We need to identify the buyers. The standings tell you who the sellers are. Usually its UFAs. In some cases, these teams are taking this opportunity to try and re-sign players but if they can’t re-sign, they’ll move them. So teams are taking calls on players but also negotiating a contract. So a player can be somewhat available and then off the market if he re-signs. I’m talking to teams that are looking to move players and will tell them what I want and they will tell me who will be on the move, etc. Its communication. Its preparation. Its relationships. Its all of that and the marketplace eventually plays itself out by 3pm on March 3.
6) I know we can’t talk specific players but we know you are interested in some high end players – how much does locker room cohesiveness weight in to in and can you get a good gage on how a trade will impact a locker room. We talk about it. We do our research. I’ll try and figure out if there is someone in the player’s past that I have a relationship with that will provide some more knowledge. Once you make your decision, you cross your fingers and hope it works. I’ve had some deals that have fit beautifully and I’m made some that didn’t fit well in the end. Detroit examples: Mironov didn’t work. McCown worked great. There is an element of guess work in all aspects: draft, free agency, trade. You make these moves because you believe they will work but when you look back in June some moves will have no or little impact and others may have a tremendous impact that you didn’t see.
7) Do you discuss much with coaches, etc. Yes, they are behind the bench coaching the team and running practice. I talk to the coach who will talk to his assistants. Again, this doesn’t happen over 15-20 minutes, more like 15-20 days. Lots of opportunity to talk, communicate, gather information. Coach should be able to tell me what he’s thinking – he’s behind the coach – knows as good as I do what’s needed, ever better maybe.
8) Deharnais has played well, added a dimension and sheltered. When is enough time to get a sense of what you have in a player and is his age a factor. Ya, at 26, he’s a bit different than a guy that’s 20. Played pro. Lots of experience. He’s had a big impact. In fact, him and Broberg. He gives us size, got in a fight the other day – grabs guys by the scruff of their jersey 2-3 times, he’s a presence. Broberg is 6’3 and mobile and they have added some important dimensions – size, mobility. Broberg is +10, Deharnais is +7-8. Until yesterday we were good at goals against since Christmas. There is an unknown – we are going in to the playoffs and they’ve never played in the playoffs. Can they continue to do what they’ve been doing? I’m certainly looking forward to this stretch of games here – we play Detroit then the Rangers, then the Avs and Phiily – in Pit – last week is Boston then Toronto. Want to see how players react against top end of the league – that’s who you are playing in playoff time. Yes, being 25 and a bit older is a bit different than coming in at 20. Broberg has also played 2 years post-draft in the SHL and then a full year in AHL – he’s got some experience under his belt. There is an unknown for players than have never played in the playoffs before.
9) Holloway, his season and Lavoie – Dylan if you look at goals and assist, fine but he’s playing a secondary role, he provides a dimension of speed. He’s learning the pro game, learning to protect the puck, learning what a bottom 6 job is and every once in a while he plays with Connor. He’s 21 years old playing 10 minutes a night so tough to expect him to score a whole bunch of goals but he’s becoming someone the coaching staff can trust. Learning to protect the puck, manage the puck. You don’t appreciate the possessions when you are playing junior hockey. Its hard to score goals. You start to learn the importance of protecting the puck and managing the puck. Don’t turn the puck over. He’s getting better. Its a tough job and its only 10 minutes a night and you are scared to do something bad and have your ice time cut but he’s getting better and gives us a dimension.
Ralph Lavoie had a tough start to season. I saw him in in Calgary twice last week and he played very well. PPG over last 20. He’s big. He looked like he was worried where his career was going earlier in the year but he’s rebounded and on the upswing and I’m looking forward to watching him the last 25 games in the Bake. Hopefully he can continue to push and get better and come to training camp next year – if he doesn’t get a chance this year hopefully he has a good summer and competes for a job at camp.
Thank you for the recap (and others lately). Not always able to catch them live.
If we want puck moving D then Nurse is the guy to go to make the money work no?
I know the answer’s no but a bit rich coming from that leadership core when one of them ices it for no reason every game.
I’m not sure where I read/heard it but Nurse wasn’t near the top of the list of times a player iced the puck (and some high end players were indeed near the top). I can’t find the stat but did find this data which tracks icings (both ways) when a player is on the ice (not necessarily individual icings) and Nurse is nowhere near the top:
https://morehockeystats.com/players/icings
Pretty big jump from OPs original comment:
“Friedman/Marek also speculate the the Oilers’ stars have indicated to management that the preferred D acquisition is a player that can move the puck.”
To the interpretation that you and at least one other poster have made:
The stars want a puck moving Dman because the current group is greatly lacking.
Preferring a Chychrun or Gost to a Gavrikov or Edmundson needn’t be an indictment of the current group at all.
So with word that the Coyotes may be willing to retain salary on Chychrun what would be willing to do.
Kulak, Yamamoto, Bourgault, and a 1st and a 3rd
For
Chychrun with 2 mill retained and Bjugstad.
Would Arizona go for it? 3 1sts or equivalents. Kulak to make money work. The 3rd for Bjugstad.
There’s likely at least a refundable 1st any time you might decide to trade remainder of his contract at 2.6 million.
I’d do it.
Chychrun is honestly the wrong target.
If McDrai have told Holland they want more puck moving D, moving Bouchard out makes no sense. Karlsson in on the top pair for Ceci makes sense.
Ceci should be on the third pair but he’ll probably play second over Bouchard.
Ceci should be in the package for EK.
Barrie to useful today, Bouch with too much potential tomorrow.
Karlsson is a clear step up on Ceci. Pucl
mover on every pairing no matter how you slice and dice the pairs.
SJ gets cost controlled RHD help that can be flipped next year or the year after.
Moving Ceci would make zero sense. Karlsson doesn’t PK, Barrie does, but his skill set is PPQB. I think between Karlsson and Bouchard, they can cover that role.
Who would cover PK duties?
I agree on Ceci and think there’s basically zero chance he’s moved in a Karlsson deal.
Karlsson can PK though. He hasn’t been asked to this season (he is playing 25:25 a night even without the PK minutes after all) but this is the first year since 14-15 that he’s been under a minute a night (he played 1:35 a game last season, and was 1:59 and 2:34 a game his first 2 years in SJ).
People who are overly down on Bouchard now are the same people who were overly up on Kostin. They are chasing / cheering for luck and they don’t know it.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Bouchard is at near a 49% goal differential despite a PDO of 974 and despite a horrific start. Worst luck on the team and he is within spitting distance of 50/50!
His FF% is second only to Broberg.
Bouchard is getting hammered for absolutely no reason. Ceci, Barrie, Nurse et al are all making mistakes as well.
As I noted below, Bouchard’s star potential as per Bader is considerable. This player is not in the same bucket as any of our other young guys.
Sidenote: Nurse – Ceci not working as a top pairing for a contender. Yeah they play tough opp but they’re not exactly thriving. I don’t trust them as a pairing against elite opponents in the playoffs, JMO.
Agreed on all points, Bling.
100%.
Bouchard has had rough moments, but he is doing fine.
Lest we forget what happened to Petry and Poti.
Bouch is more skilled than both of these players (and Gilbert) were superior skaters, though.
It’s easy for the squad to pick on the quiet guy in the corner.
Nurse is not an elite #1D. A #1D yes but not elite as to make a #3/4D(Ceci) look great on a top pair.
With regards to Bouchard, if we’re talking about our cup window, right now. Do we have time to wait for that star potential? At 23 years old he could be a couple more seasons away..
If we bring in Karlsson. Is the team better off, this year going into the playoffs with Bouchard or Ceci?
You cannot focus on one season when EK has four more after this.
EK is a head and shoulders upgrade on Ceci.
Send Ceci out, roll the dice on Bouch.
Bouchard right now is way better than Ceci
I think Bouchard is getting hammered because he’s making the “high visibility mistakes” and, as we know, single moments can leave lasting memories.
Combine that with his clear lack of urgency (i.e. too calm under pressure) which some/many perceive as lack of effort and, well, these plays can look very bad.
Rishaug uses the phrase “doesn’t recognize danger” and I actually think that fits well
He’s also simply not as dynamic with the puck as last season – he just hasn’t been. I think its the defensive/puck mistakes lowering his confidence which has hit his overall game.
I’m a big Bouchard guy, and I think his offensive ceiling is very high, and even I am “down on him” a bit. No, I’m certainly not “done with him” or looking to move him, just a bit flustered that such a smart offensive player (his history shows) hasn’t led to some development in his areas of deficiency (I thought he’d learn from mistakes quickly).
Interesting fact – Bouchard has played 12 less games in mens leagues than Broberg.
Being on the taxi squad was not the best pathway for career development.
Ceci should be the piece heading out in an EK deal.
Stauffer floats Bouchard in a Karlsson trade proposal and Leavins says he’s heard some surprising names in a proposed Karlsson trade. Hmmmm.
A good reason to keep Bouchard, despite some real and perceived struggles, is that according to Bader he has a high likelihood of being a star NHLer based on past production.
Without giving away too much (it’s behind a paywall), Bouchard’s star probability is *much* higher than Broberg’s (whom I like a ton), and on the order of what Draisaitl’s was before he broke out. It’s also way ahead of guys like Bourgault and Holloway.
To me trading, Bouchard is a no-go. They should be shooting for Karlsson/Ceci/Bouchard as the RHD depth chart, which allows plenty of cover in the event of injury.
On Bader’s tool it’s important to know that he defines a star by points per game.
It’s all about offence
For a Defenseman you hit star status when you get .45/game
So for example according to Bader Tony DeAngelo is a star. Erik Gustafsson – star. etc
So when you say Bouchard’s star probability is much higher than Broberg’s it just means that he is expected to get more points
*or more accurately: a higher probability to get .45 points per game
I’m all for all in, but giving up 2 RHD off the roster to bring one in seems counter productive.
The only way you consider that is if it is at 25% salary (75% retained elsewhere) and you can go get other pieces based on the cap space (both now and forward).
Yeah agreed because
Nurse-Karlsson
Kulak-Ceci
Broberg-Desharnais
ain’t it.
I’d prefer to give up first rounders, three of them. Build the package from there.
An injury to either Karlsson or Ceci would be crippling. I’ve got time for Matt Banning being added to the deal though.
Well this would just mean they add a Schenn or Mayfield or Gudas. Holland isn’t just going to hand Desharnais 3RD going into the playoffs.
Barrie pretty much has to go for cap space. I’d very much prefer to keep Ceci and Bouchard as the #2 and #3, but if Grier really wants Bouchard as part of the deal (you can see why he might) then it could be made work with an outside replacement.
So Curious what Karlsson at 7.5 mil per would cost ( including the necessary cap dumps which I think they’d rather do than retain 50%)
if it was 2 1sts and Schaefer I’d do it
Barrie, JP plus a small sweetener to make it
I would include three firsts and Bourgault. Barrie, JP, Yamo, Foegele, Ceci all on the table to make salaries work.
Interesting tidbit about 97/29 preferring an offensive defensemen. There are so many different buckets of offensive defenseman.
While we do have puck movers we don’t have anyone even close to being considered dynamic.
Nurse can skate the puck out and join the rush but I’ve believed for years that it must drive those guys nuts when the kill themselves on the cycle only to work it over to 25 and have him sift a wrister into the goalies glove and end the shift.
Bouchards 100 foot stretch pass has pace and touch and reminds of Ryan Whitney….but so does his skating. His half court game has regressed. Barrie is a PP savant. He distributes in the umbrella beautifully, holds the line and makes the drop pass to 97 way better than Bouchard.
Kulak can shoot ok.
Broberg, Ceci and Desharnais aren’t good at all in this area of the game.
Karlsson is unbelievable at riffing off the forwards and creating offense in the half court. I get giddy thinking about those three buzzing around the offensive zone.
This could be like the Stones adding Mick Taylor and coming up with Exhile and Let It Bleed. Maybe they would have with Brian Jones but it certainly worked out.
Just for clarification – if you are talking about the intel from Marek/Frieman, I don’ think the term used was “offensive d-man” but “puck-mover” – another subset bucket I guess.
Do you even watch this team? Like, seriously? You really think Nurse drives his teammates nuts? Broberg, Ceci and Desharnais all can’t shoot? Team leads the League in goals, even moreso off the rush, and yet no one is dynamic?
And please don’t compare the Oilers to the Stones. I actually like the Oilers and think they’re talented. I first heard the Stones in 1972, and have never felt that way about them. There is no band on this planet I have ever wanted to add a Stone to and thought that band would be better. Not The Who, not The Doors, not The Beatles, not Queen, not Floyd, not Zep, not Rush, not anyone.
In fact, I’m pretty sure, in every case, it would make the existing band worse, but I don’t have my alternate universe in the icloud (fukker won’t fit), and can’t prove this…
And while LT is sadly a lover of the Stones—there’s no accounting for taste—the one thing he understands is that Music! isn’t a matter of plug ‘n play.
Adding Mick Taylor is like Shirov’s Bishop Sacrifice
@AdamVingan
Coyotes coach Andre Tourigny: “(Chychrun) will remain out of the lineup until something happens.”
Flames acquire Luke Schenn? Is this true?
That all depends on where you saw this, do you have a link?
The source is Walter Gretzkys Neigbour’s Neighbour
Sort of I guess!
Not yet.
But Rick Dhaliwal reporting it’s close with Calgary and Boston in the running.
I would imagine Schenn would prefer Calgary since his family lives in Kelowna.
Okay thanks. Do you have a link for this? Not trying to be a dink but have not been able to find this anywhere online.
It was on the Donny and Dhaliwal Show this morning.
The podcast isn’t up yet
Found it.
https://twitter.com/donnieanddhali/status/1625224540141031425?s=61&t=sW-bD5dCalFWBRL6mXSxSw
I would assume Schenn would prefer Boston where he will play in the playoffs instead of golfing in Kelowna the day after the season ends.
Seems more logical to me as well. After all planes can connect from Boston to
Kelowna.. and who would you rather play with? League leading Bruins or “that other team”.
Kelowna is a 30 minute flight from Vancouver.
Boston is close to an all day affair with Customs and Immigration to clear.
Schenn’s wife is also pregnant, due on trade deadline day, so I’m pretty sure he won’t want be a continent away.
You would be wrong.
He has expressed repeatedly that he wants to finish his career in the west and will likely sign back in Vancouver if traded.
He already has his cup rings.
“You would be wrong.” That’s pretty strong language. But then again, look at the source…..
You would be making an assumption. Three months in Boston with a potential run to the cup versus a month in cowtown before signing with Vancouver for next year.
Logically, what sounds better…….
Friendly reminder that HH told everyone they were wrong about Gaudreau wanting to leave Calgary for the exact same reasons he is arguing Schenn wants to go to Calgary.
I don’t think HH is worth your time on this topic.
You’re right. Thanks!
Duncan Keith also wanted to go to Vancouver, because Kelowna, did he not?
And I could swear I recall something about Nuge and some horses, and not remaining in Edmonton..
You are right.
Ahh the Nuge contract discussions. It never ceases to amaze me how Nuge was supposed to be an excellent addition to Seattle at 8.5m x 8 until he signed with the Oilers at $5.125m x 8. Suddenly, Nuge was an unforced error by the Oilers who was not worth his contract and would be one that the Oilers would regret later on.
One of the classics.
I don’t think he is worth our time on all topics lol 😉
Sorry – I saw a Twitter thing just as I was leaving my office for home. So I posed this more as a “has anyone else seen this”. Just got home and am looking for more.
It was from this guy – @JamesJohnsonYYC
Looks like it was more of a “what if” – unless there is more out there.
So – my bad – lesson learned don’t jump on a post on Twitter when you are about to drive off not having checked the source.
Apologies – it was whoever that guy was “prediction” based on most likely nothing.
I know it was mentioned in passing, and maybe that’s all the power it should get until real details come out, but this Moose Jaw Warriors issue is, well, a big issue. 4 players, including Oilers’ prospect Max Wanner suspended indefinitely for violating the code of conduct pending and investigation.
This could be quite bad and I’ve had Wanner as a real prospect of interest.
Whatever happened, I like that I do not know anything about it. If it is an internal investigation, great, thats why they call it internal. It should be done with proper privacy as would be done in my company and thus people are not slandered based on rumor or without cause.
Having said this, lets hope the organization is just being overly cautious and the result is a good outcome for all involved.
i agree with most of this – my goodness was that a tire fire ball all on the ice (Kane probably the weakest plays of them all) but I think this understates how bad that play by McDavid was as it looked to me a complete lack of effort and urgency and was such a soft play – he doesn’t make those soft plays in the offensive zone….
Could we not bring a 3rd team into the trade to retain more of K’s salary? I’m thinking of the Savard trade from Columbis to TB a couple of years ago. For sure it makes it more expensive, but theoretically you could have 75% of K’s salary retained by The Sharks (50%) and by a 3rd team (ex. Coyotes 25%).
if this was the NBA and we had smart GMs willing to get creative, by all means.
I believe SJS when they say they won’t go to 50%.
can we talk about 45% lol
They are going to have to retain a bug chunk if they want to move him. Almost every other team is capped out. Plus San Jose really needs to get out of that contract
Yes, if Holland can get real creative we might get 25% SJS and 25% yotes.
Edm: E Karl
SJS: 2023 1st, 2024 2nd (Conditional Oilers make SC finals its a 1st), Barrie, 25% retain on Karl
AZI: JP, 2023 2nd, 2024 3rd 25% retain on Karl
If its not enough, make SJS both firsts no conditions and change the 3rd to a second in AZI. that’s 7.5 mill out 5.75 in. Leaves about 3 mill in space to chase a bottom 6 upgrade. Id be looking to trade a prospect for one. Win now mode, this is all assuming Karlson would agree to come his full NMC makes his acquisition cost less IMO.
Apx $3MM X 4 is going to cost a lot more than a 2nd and a 3rd….. that’s going to be a 1st rounder plus, right?
You are probably right AZ would have a lot of negotiating power as well in this example potentially the most. Would you do it if it cost 3 firsts? I think I would.
Yes, this is definitely a possibility (although I don’t think the Sharks will go near 50% retained) but it would cost dearly for that third team.
This isn’t like getting a 3rd team to retain 25% of Toews’ contract (which, with him making $2.9MM for this full season, with 2/5 of the season left and then 25% of that being like $300K) – this is multiple millions of dollars per season, for 4 seasons – a first round pick to the Yotes is the start and it likely would cost more.
Your handle got me thinking of the Oilers circa WHA days – and that led me to recall Frank Beaton – anyone else here old enough to remember him?
1976-77 he played 68 games for the Oilers, 4-9-13 with 274 PIM. I remember a friend of mine talking about him when we were on our way to Northlands to see a game. He sounded like a character right out of Snapshot. According to my pal he was a real wild man – as his PIM might suggest.
Sadly I am too old to remember what game we went to that night. I vaguely recall seeing him in warmup and thinking he looked like he could be Ogie Ogilthorpe-esque.
Different era.
SLAPSHOT.
I recall when Frank ‘never’ Beaton got tuned up by a gas station attendant who accidently spilled gas on Frank’s ride. Turned out to be the wrong guy to pick a fight with, and thus began the nickname slide from ‘never’ to ‘seldom’. Also, Frank later joined legendary players like Steve Durbano, Dave Hanson and Bad News Bilodeau in Birmingham where they were known to shoot pucks at the fans during warm-up. Luckily, they couldn’t raise the pucks with those old straight SherWoods.
Seravelli on the DFO Rundown talking about the Yotes willing to retain some salary on Chychrun – maybe the acquiring team gets him below $4MM. Part of premise being that the Yotes need to spend money in any event.
My goodness I wonder what the acquisition cost would be if there is salary retained.
Friedmen/Marek believe the other teams have re-engaged on Chychrun.
————————-
Friedman/Marek also speculate the the Oilers’ stars have indicated to management that the preferred D acquisition is a player that can move the puck.
Drai did confirm to them during the All-Star weekend that management does ask their opinion on these things.
This is good info right here. Thanks OP.
Sounds like they want Chychrun or Karlsson
Marek and Friedman reporting this morning that a hitch in the negotiations with LAK is likely caused by the Kings needing to clear some money so perhaps they are looking at acquiring more than one player.
Or Gostisbehre 😉
inadvertent shade thrown at the current D corpse ha ha ha
Or perhaps the Coyotes hope retaining some salary will allow them to get the assets they’ve been asking for, which no one has been willing to cough up so far.
I can’t recall if this is Holland’s regular MO prior to coming to the Oilers, but it’s heartening that he seems to be really trying to work with McDavid/Draisaitl etc. to see what they want or who they want on the team, especially with their new contracts coming up. It puts a bit more onus on the players if the moves they wanted don’t work out, so Holland can at least say that he did what he could for them with them in mind.
I can imagine another reality where the Oilers have a different GM who doesn’t care about Draisaitl’s or McDavid’s opinions and just gets the players that the GM wants. Like another Manning kinda deal. I wouldn’t really blame McDavid or Draisaitl in that alternate reality if part of the reason they wanted to leave the Oilers was because the org. wasn’t going in a diection they liked.
Only downside is if the players McDavid and Drai want suck or are far too costly, but I can’t really see Holland going after them if that’s the case, or blaming Drai or McDavid for it.
On the surface it seems like they have a pretty good relationship.
Taking feelers is great to a point (more is more when it comes to data), but GM needs to GM – can’t have tail wagging the dog.
The Athletic weekend rankings update speaks about the Oilers being on the cusp of their top 5 and top cup contender and the favourite in the Pacific.
Go big (and unrealistic) or go home, Holland!
To Edmonton:
Erik Karlsson @ 30% retained, $8.050M
James Reimer, $2.250M
Timo Meier @ 50% retained, $3.000M
To San Jose:
Tyson Barrie, $4.500M
Jack Campbell, $5.000M
Raphael Lavoie
Markus Niemelainen
EDM 2023 1st Round Pick
EDM 2023 2nd Round Pick
To idk… Arizona:
EDM 2023 5th Round Pick
EDM 2023 3rd Round Pick
Tyler Benson
Magnus Puljujarvi, $3.000M
25% retention on Erik Karlsson
25% retention on Timo Meier
Oilers add $8.925M and subtract $12.5M. Drafting is overrated, anyway.
If all it took to get Karlsson at 6M and Meier at 2.5M was a single first round pick then Grier should be fired immediately and never allowed near a puck for the rest of his days.
Once and Oiler, Always an Oiler.
Just how badly does San Jose want to move Karlsson?
I think they may be looking at his recent play as an absolute blessing and opportunity to make a move. Last year they have to pay to move him, this year they can divest a huge contract and bring back valuable assets.
Holland would be playing with dynamite here.
Adding Karlsson would be one thing and make the Oilers better. If hes injured they still have others to fall back on.
But adding Karsson and removing a significant chunk of the team to do so, it is questionable about the overall net affect. Isn’t this exactly what San Jose did when they acquired Karlsson? They felt they were one piece away and they overestimated Karlson’s net affect, losing assets to do so. In hindsight I bet they see this as one of their major mistakes.
But they brought him in at a time that their core was aging out. I think that was the mistake. Timing
I agree with timing. Many questioned why they needed him with Burns in place but they felt he was the player to take them over the top.
Oilers are not aging out but the clock is ticking.
If the player is injured or regresses, can the Oilers rebound from that contract, and from the loss of assets? I think the situation is similar.
I really dont know the answer, which makes this trade deadlline so interesting.
Buying high on a contract fraught with risk doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.
How has buying low worked out for the Oilers?
How many times have they bought low on a player? You could say Evander Kane although that wasn’t a trade, and Klim Kostin. Both have worked out very well.
We could flip this around too: How has buying high worked out for the Oilers?
There are far more bad examples of signing contracts based on career years or seasons spent with McDavid than otherwise.
Different GM but Patrick Maroon was a good get. If I recall, Anaheim even retained salary on him, too.
I would not be sending Barrie out, hes too important to this team right now.
Bouchard has shown similarities to Pujujarvi. Brilliant flashes of what could be, but constant reminders of his inherent weaknesses that persist. To me, Im left with doubt. Two or three years from now, once hes paid relative to his performance, what will he be worth on the trade market?
Oilers can choose to keep him around and bet on him in the future, or trade that value in today. I think they need to use his value today.
Barrie has next to no value if Karlsson is running PP1 though. And Bouchard is the better player at 5v5, younger and is millions cheaper.
Past 1.5 seasons at 5v5:
Barrie: 14:35 TOI, 0.25 G/60, 0.89 P/60
Bouchard: 15:30 TOI, 0.32 G/60, 1.26 P/60
Barrie: 49.91 CF%, 50.35 xGF%, 50.37 SCF%
Bouchard: 55.82 CF%, 54.72 xGF%, 53.80 SCF%
Yiu have to give them something of potential value or pay more. Barrie in deal just means pay more in other areas I think.
I don’t see Bouchard as cheaper for long. And I would challenge that he is the better player today, his mistakes generally cost more to my eye, regardless of numbers. The answer we hear frequently is Bouchard needs a better partner. If he always needs the better partner, then likely he is the weak link.
IF Karlsson was running the powerplay, just how much better would it get? How much do you want to pay for that?
But really my point was about value. Oilers need something of value to trade. Bouchard has more value as a trade chip than Barrie, but that value may be about to decline significantly as his contract goes up. Something has to give. I have not turned on Bouchard, just saying that If we are trading futures in form of 1st rounders, Bougault etc, then we must also consider futures in form of Bouchard.
Totally agree, Karlson doesn’t need to be on the PP at all really he leads the league in 5v5 points and is a D that’s what you bring him in for. Playoffs has a lot less PP opportunities need guys that perform 5v5.
The Oilers got more PP’s per game in the playoffs last year than they did in the regular season. Ditto for Colorado.
Karlsson is a player who could potentially put us over the top, depending on who gets sent out. But honestly, I think SJ needs to get rid of Karlsson for their purposes more than the Oilers need to add him for ours.
SJ is justified in asking more for him than they would have in years past. But unless, there is a bidding war for his services, I think Grier will blink first if the two sides are at an impasse.
Play hardball – 100% This is going to take a very willing partner and a lot of attention.
Them eating 18% is starting point for me. No additional asset required for this concession.
Around 9 million per is what I’d be comfortable pegging value (and inherently there is risk on end of that contract but it is tradable in final 2 years if willing to eat signing bonuses even more so)
Add a first or debatable decent prospect for every additional 6-7.5 million they eat (every 1.5 million per year…so like add 1st/prosp for EK @ 7.5, another for EK @ 6 mill)
2023/2024 1sts – 5.75 mill/year EK
Schaefer Bouchard- player value EK (its not equivalent but good luck sj getting everything from anyone,)
Puj and foegle added to open space – 2023 2nd
Might not be enough honestly but I wouldn’t be skinning much deeper and shaving meat off too far past. Might toss 4th maybe 3rd in attached to the foegle/puj part.
Imo
Karlsson has a full NMC so that definitely weakens San Jose’s position.
Plus I have to think that the pressure to offload him now at peak value is quite strong
That NMC could also, potentially, destroy the Oilers’ position – this is a 4 plus year commitment from the player (and his family).
We don’t know which way Karlsson would go on that.
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Bouchard would be part of any package for Karlsson. He’s due for a raise next year, and probably ends up around the same cap figure as Barrie.
His comp is Dobson, but he’s having an inferior season to Dobson’s contract year. I don’t think his deal will approach Barrie’s $4.5M number.
Except Bouchard is a way better player than Barrie and a lot younger
I tend to agree but, at the same time, it hasn’t really played out like that on the ice – to my eye.
Barrie has had a very nice season in tougher minutes. I understand that Bouch is running a low PDO but he’s earned some of that as well with mistakes that have led to the most high danger opportunities possible.
Someone mentioned on Twitter today that someone else is interested in Karlsson
is it Mike Hoffman?
This team has been looking to replace Lubomir ever since the day he left. And there is even more need for a player like that now.
Karlsson is Lubo+++ and on steroids. If you think our attacking forwards get the puck in full flight now…my gawd…
I’m also in favor of the general thrust of this approach – double-down on the team’s strength. Make the attack so good there’s only 1 night in 10 where it can’t get the job done.
Given the schedule we have had in January and now in February….
Leon Draisaitl:
GF: 45 / GA 47
Something is up with Leon he just doesn’t have the giddy up in his step.
Was at the game yesterday. Day’s hilight was the hot chicken sandwich I had after leaving the Bell Centre.
Was nice to see the generosity of the Oilers on family appreciation day in MTL. Not many sad children.
In honestly though it was interesting to see the non-insignificant amount of young French Oilers fans, or more specifically probably Mcdavid fans, adorned in the bleu blanc et orange.
Holland has done very well with free agent signings indeed, although I questioned the Campbell risk.
He hasn’t done as well with trades in my mind, and this is a complicated trade.
Does San Jose want Karlsson out enough now to accept a trade? Kinda feels like this might be more off an offseason discussion. Did they talk in the offseason? Was Holland thinking “no way am I going to trade for an old Karlsson”, and now with EK looking at 100 points he’s changing his mind?
He has to remember:
Couture – 4 more years at $8 million
Vlasic – 3 more years at $7 million
Hertl – 7 more years at $8.14 million
They didn’t get a ton for Burns. They’ll get more for Karlsson, but San Jose is in severe cap hell, going nowhere fast, and nobody will ever take Vlasic, doubtful on 34 year old Couture without retention, and Hertl is a good player but he turns 30 this fall.
Given Karlsson’s cap hit, Grier has to find the right team – not a rebuilding team, not a team already at the top.
A team needing a piece or two to put them over the top. Other than Edmonton and maybe LA (who already have Doughty at $11 million for another 4 years!!) how many teams realistically would take a stab at Karlsson?
I think Holland could grind down Grier pretty good in the offseason (though we all know what happened with Keith) and I’d bet he’ll pay less.
The premium comes in getting Karlsson for this year’s playoff run. How much is that worth?
Also, a premium for a significant $$ retention.
Right, the more they retain, theoretically the more expensive – but my point is Grier doesn’t just have Karlsson as a cap problem, he has several other problems. So understandably they don’t want to retain more than they have to, because he’ll be doing the same with Couture and Vlasic, but if that’s the case, then the actual ask has to come down from San Jose.
In honour of Karlsson trade proposal day–here is my take:
My philosophy–minimize the number of roster players involved in the trade. Do not want to rob Peter to pay Paul.
Karlsson ($4500000 retained) for 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Barrie, JP, Schaefer
Foegele for stuff
Bugstad for stuff
New roster when healthy:
Kane McD Hyman
Holloway Drai Yamo
Janmark RNH Kostin
McLeod Bugstad Ryan
Nurse Karlsson
Kulak Ceci
Broberg Bouchard
to make it apples-to-apples…
According to D+1 Seasons, it would look like this:
Eberle and Benson were in their D+2 seasons.
Nugent-Hopkins went straight to the NHL so it was his Draft season.
This team came out of the break flat as a pancake. They seem to have abandoned the relatively tight game plan they had before. Everything is disjointed and out of sync. Maybe getting back home and settling down will be the cure. In their own end they continue to be a fire drill. Lots of coasting, no physicality, one hand on the stick making half assed poke check attempts. Is this what they’re coached? Not sure about Karlsson… I’d find the best defensive D man that is available and do what it takes to make a deal. Anyway, they’ve had a nice streak that got them back in the hunt and the Conference lead is in sight.
Some more thoughts about what a Karlsson trade could look like.
To Edmonton
Karlsson 11.5
Benning 1.25
Gregor .8
TOTAL 13.5
To San Jose
Barrie 4.75
Yamamoto 3.1
Foegele 2.75
Bouchard 1
2023 1st
TOTAL 11.6
San Jose would have to retain 3 million to make it cap neutral.(Edmonton must replace the extra player out at app 1 million)
This deal fits Edmontons cap for this year and next. McLeod is the only player due a significant raise next year and JP coming off the books should handle that and more. Edmontons bottom six would have to built with players making less than 1.5 million per year. MAX!
From San Joses point of view they are getting a promising young defender and a 1st rounder in a deep draft. They are also out of cap hell after next year. I think they would like this deal. Maybe Edmonton is giving up too much. I dunno.
The problem with this deal is that Edmonton IS in cap hell after next year. Broberg and Holloway are coming out of their ELCs and there is no money. One of Ceci or Kulak would have to go and maybe McLeod.
The year after that Draisaitls deal is up. The year after that it’s McDavid. There is no way the Oilers can keep them unless they buy out or trade some big NMCs.
So there’s the conundrum. Adding Karlsson helps now and next year. Maybe the year after. It looks like you make the decision based on whether you think Draisaitl and McDavid are staying after their current contracts.
The other solution is to have the Sharks retain at least 5 million for 4 years. That deal probably costs at least 1 more first rounder.
The Oilers cannot afford to give up four roster players to acquire Karlsson.
The proposed trade guts both the RW and RHD depth. Barrie + JP covers the cap and then throw in as many futures as required.
The OIlers have have to get rid of cap next year also, not just this year. Barrie isn’t enough.
To make it work going forward, pretty much all of Barrie Bouchard, Foegele and Yamamoto have to go, probably in two deals.
After one more almost flat year, the Cap is projected to go up substantially.
The projections in the Fall were:
23-24 $83.5M
24-25 ~$88.0M (when Bro/Holloway need new deals)
25-26 ~$92.0M
If that actually happens, the Oilers cap crunch will be less after next year, and they should also have enough cap space to re-sign Draisaitl/McDavid if they’re willing to stay.
This is far from a sure thing.
the impending bankruptcy of Bally Sports could be a huge drag on HRR.
I’ve been wondering about this, and know very little about it. But isn’t Bally a subcontractor for the ESPN primary deal with the NHL??
If that’s the case doesn’t that somewhat insulate the HRR from their bankruptcy?
So, Erik Karlsson. Everyone’s talking about it now.
I thought Leavin’s ‘9 Things’ yesterday on Karlsson was interesting. In terms of potential roster players going to SJ he wrote: “I have heard names. Some of those would not surprise you. Others might.”
Surprisingly specific, though not actually giving away the details. Clearly the teams are having legitimate discussions though.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-general-manager-ken-holland-goes-big-game-hunting-9-things
DNB at the Athletic yesterday also throwing a little water on the idea, quoting a team source on the possibility of a trade “I mean, it’s possible. But remarkably unlikely”. Though he ended his piece with basically ‘so you’re saying there’s a chance…’.
And LT adding to the discussion this morning.
I’m intrigued, and I think this is something that could happen. Won’t be easy, but it could.
(I was looking/writing this stuff earlier but didn’t get to post. I’ll break it up and add here now.)
Munny yesterday brought up the Brent Burns trade, which does give a sense what the Sharks might be willing to retain to shed a significant chunk of salary.
The Sharks retained $2.72M for 3 full seasons (34%) on Burns to rid themselves of 3 x $5.28M of salary. Burns didn’t cost Carolina much.
The full trade was:
Brent Burns (34% retained)
Lane Pederson
for
Steven Lorentz
Eetu Makiniemi
2023 Conditional 3rd (the lower of 2 picks that Carolina had)
Pederson is a 25-year-old depth forward (44 NHL games experience) on a 2 year league min deal. He was subsequently included in the Bear trade to Vancouver (Bear and Pederson for a 5th). He played 11 games for the Canucks this season and was later claimed on waivers by Columbus.
Lorentz is a bit better depth forward. 26-years-old, re-signed for 2 years with the Sharks at $1.05M. Was a regular for 2 seasons in Carolina and is a regular with SJ, but his career boxcars are 164 15-16-31. Depth forward.
Makiniemi is a 23-year-old goalie. 4th round pick, worked his way to starter in Finland (just a .907 SV% though) before coming to NA last season. His SV% in the AHL last season was .922, though he only played 14 games. He got into 2 games with the Sharks this season (.906) and spent 22 games in the AHL (.900). He’s the Sharks 4th (3rd?) string goalie (Reimer 28GP, Kahkonen 23GP, Dell 3GP, Makiniemi 2GP). He is a prospect, but not a high end one.
And a late 3rd round pick.
So Lorentz, Makiniemi, late 3rd round pick was what the Sharks got to retain ~$2.7M of Burns salary for 3 years, and to rid themselves of ~$5.3M for 3 years. Really that’s not much, and Burns is their #1 D by TOI.
So what could a trade look like?
Karlsson’s salary is substantially bigger, and has an extra year+ relative to Burns. Burns was also older. Karlsson is a better player, but is a bigger injury risk.
From the Oilers cap perspective, fitting in the salary this season is a bigger pressure even than next season. As far as I can figure it would take 35-40% retention (basically $4.0M-4.5M retained, leaving the Oilers on the hook for Karlsson at $7.0M-7.5M).
Bouchard gets mentioned as potentially being on the way out. It makes sense that SJ would want him, but I can’t make the cap work (the Oilers would still need to send out Barrie plus 2 forwards to get complaint, whether Bouchard was included or not).
My guess at what could work is:
Karlsson (40% retained = $7.0M cap hit for the Oilers)
for
Barrie
Puljujarvi
Foegele
2023 1st
2023 1st
That would leave the Oilers with a 21-man roster and more than $1.25M in cap space (to add a Domi/Bjugstad/Accari or 2, depending on retention on those deals).
The Oilers roster, without any other additions, would be:
Kane-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-McLeod-Kostin
Janmark-Shore-Ryan
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Karlsson
Broberg-Bouchard
Desharnais
Campbell/Skinner
Cap-wise, the Oilers could actually still add (say) Domi AND Accari (with Shore out) to this roster if both were 50% retained (that would be a compliant 22-man roster).
Not sure this is reasonable from a Sharks POV, but the return they got for Burns was almost nothing. The deal I just suggested would have the Sharks retaining more than twice as much (~$19.5M total for Karlsson vs. ~$8.2M on Burns), but also clearing out basically twice as much future cap (~$30.3M vs. ~$15.9M). And this deal would include 2 x 1sts plus the trade return they could get for Barrie, all of which are worth more than any asset they got for Burns.
Anyway, all of this is very unlikely to happen, but fun to think about all the same.
The best facility in the world unless you have to pee. Fortunately I cannot afford the beer.
Khaira’s D+2 was an underwhelming 59, 16-27-43 (0.729), so Schaefer is already ahead of that in his D+1. Of course, Khaira’s team wasn’t as strong, so more opportunity, but with less help. And Khaira was also bouncing around between leagues, so it is certainly not an apples to apples comparison.
I think Schaefer’s top speed is better, but they have similarly mediocre edges and agility. Schaefer might be a better shooter too. But I think Khaira did a lot of little things right and I haven’t seen enough of Schaefer to know if he’s that type of player.
But there is some overlap there, if Schaefer can’t find a home on a skill line.. It’ll be interesting to see if Schaefer can stay ahead of Khaira.
schaefer is solid defensively but i personally doubt that his scoring touch will translate in the NHL.
I personally project him as a big, heavy, hard to play against bottom 6 player who can PK and pop in 10-12 goals a yr.
Schaefer has a better than average shot. That can turn a tweener into an NHL’er.
Schaefer is not as fast as Khaira was
I did not know that. I thought he was slow to get going, but once he was going he could move, like Kassian.
Khaira was not a burner per say, but he was definitely faster
Good to know. Appreciate it.
Fair enough, but I really see that as the kind of thing that should be expected from Holland.
Holland has previously traded for the likes of Dominik Hasek, Chris Chelios, Matheiu Schneider, Todd Bertuzzi, Wendel Clark, Robert Lang, Ulf Samuelsson. I feel like pursuit to Erik Karlsson is very much in line with Holland’s own history.
I think all of those acquisitions mentioned are pre salary cap, and certainly predate the current 85% of the league is completely capped out hellscape.
Bertuzzi was post-Cap, but it’s true the degree of difficulty is higher now days.
If SJ can be convinced to retain a similar percent on Karlsson as they did on Burns then the Cap can work for the Oilers (see my other post about one way it could).
I don’t think anyone believed that Evander Kane could be retained by the team last summer, but he’s still an Oiler.
Sure, but when he acquired the likes of Duncan Keith and James Neal he repeatedly talked about how much he places value in a player’s resume.
EK65 totally fits Holland’s mo.
That’s pretty nice group of players.
Its been working out well for the most part.
I’m not sure going after the first Dman in 30 years to stare down a 100 point seasons is that Billy Bean like 😉
The hard Q’s for Bouch this season smells the same as the Darnell goosing five years ago. Folks frustrated and mad at a second year player who’s partnered with a rookie makes me laugh in a dark way.
Thought experiment – to what extent is much higher scoring prowess among the forwards causing a point dip from the Oilers defense? Barrie is having a fine year on the PP but away from that he’s on pace for his worst point output in five years. Nurse is having a good points season away from the PP but really he’s the only dman to be doing that. Everyone else save Kulak (who’s points are a reflection of a more stable lineup spot) is seeing a points dip.
When you have such a dip across all your backend I’m not sure its one players fault or a regression from an individual in a larger sense of the word either. The Oilers forwards are better at controlling play in the O-zone this year and better at creating chances. Meaning there is less room for defensemen to grab more than 3rd assists. I don’t think its a coincidence either that Karlsson’s scoring has skyrocketed with San Jose having their most offensively challenged forward group in a decade. If you go back to EK’s last big season 16/17 that Sens team was chronically unbalanced offensively to with one line (and it was a gooder) taking up a McLeon share of the 5v5 and PP production. EK contributed mightily to that but given how “meh” everyone else was my inkling is that he got a way bigger percentage of the touches whenever he was out. With his offensive instinct its easier to contribute.
I don’t think you’d see the same sort of production in Edmonton. Yes he’d hit McDavid with passes, so he’d grab some points for outlets. But in the Ozone the scoring by EDMs biggest threats is down low cycle stuff. The odd point shot would come in but EK would (or should) be looking to get the puck into the hands of the best player on earth more than making his own chances.
This brings me back full circle to the current consternation around the Oilers defense, lack of points and the desire to get a “difference” maker. You don’t necessarily need EK to get the over performance, especially not at the prices being bandied (removing 4 NHL players from a roster when your last Playoff run got derailed by injuries is risky business.)
Don’t get me wrong there are places where I think Bouch could or should have shot. Lanes he could have been the 1st or 2nd assist guy if he would have hit the pass. But given the hard regression in the fancies when pretty much zero points flowed as a result I have an inkling something else is at play. Improved scoring chops by the forwards is where I’m looking and EK would be a victim of the same trend IMO.
There could be a way to do this in the offseason but the risks of trying to pull this off in-season, exchanging a huge number of players, for a team that will win the Division without any material changes whatsoever… That’s a helluva gamble.
Burns and Karls were cannibalizing each other. Not enough puck for both of them.
Bouch’s fancies are not as big a concern as the lack of urgency. He has some Tom Poti in him – there are times in every game he seems less engaged/mindful/interested in making strong, intense plays. And that is hard to fix.
I coach youth hockey and we see it all the time. I’d rather tame a tiger than beat a mule. There are less and less mules in the NHL than years past, regardless of skill level. The game is just too quick and coaching so specific that these players are exploited.
I’m not sure I get the logic here. You’re suggesting the Oilers forwards are so good the don’t work as a 5 man unit. I would suggest that this sounds like a made up “narrative”. Connor or Leon regularly win pucks and move them to the point. And then the creation starts.
I would agree that Nashville and San Jose uniquely ask Josi and EK65 to create due to their lack of dynamic forwards. Would Edmonton stifle that in the name of scoring chance suppression? Maybe yeah.
So do I think Karlsson will be the leading even strength scorer in the NHL for the next few years? No I don’t but I don’t think his talents will be wasted.
Bouchard has only looked good playing with the rookie this year.
Karlsson points don’t really matter. if the effects of Broberg altering zone time is noticeable, the effects of Karlsson altering zone time with be noticeable squared.
The Oilers have the assets to do the deal at the 20-25% retention. Barrie, Bouchard, Foegele, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and draft picks, probably requiring two deals. One just has to get rid of all the mid-tier replaceables getting paid next year in the transaction.
It would be an epic deal, because deals like this have not been done in like forever.
Oh…and the Oilers saved the Sharks owners and the NHL a boatload of money rehabilitating and paying Evander Kane.
Ah, I love this song. The canonical version of course being the Charlebois original, but the production hasn’t aged well, so I submit the definitive rendition comes from Prince of Montréal Rufus Wainwright:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtGjzQV_CP0
Also, having lived in the city for a couple of years as a young man, I remember feeling how the Oilers looked on Sunday. Montréal will do that to you.
I have been concerned with Schaefer’s play since watching a couple of games before Xmas. He’s done nothing on the scoreboard since to convince me he is taking a step forward. Now big lads do develop different, but right now bottom 6 is the best we can hope for and maybe not even that. This guy’s gotta get going.
Given where he was drafted, if he develops in to a solid 3rd line player in the NHL, that’s a good result, no?
Yes we can hope (and still hope) that he becomes a top 6 power forward but that would be less likely that likely on draft day, no?
Very sad performance by the team yesterday. Skinner was not sharp at all. They actually didn’t look overly good on this road trip overall, and are probably lucky to get 5 of 8 points.
They need. To regroup for Detroit and play a hell of a lot better. The game could be a rough one for sure, if any of the last one Carrie’s over.
Yammy back, so we will see what moves they do besides waivering Shore.
Definitely need to get it together against Detroit with games coming up against the Rangers and Av’s this weekend. Need to be on the A train .
Chychrun now back available as the LA deal failed ( Guess they didn’t want to give up Clarke, just like Holland doesn’t want to give up Broberg. Can’t blame either GM)
Fun few weeks coming up with rumours galore
Definitely some truth to these statements