The Edmonton Oilers enter tonight with 67 points in 56 games. Assuming the team wins at a point-per-game clip now through the end of the season (a very low bar for a team with this much talent), the final standings will show 93 points after 82 games. That may not be enough to make the postseason. In the team’s last 10 games, the Oilers are 5-1-4, while the Colorado Avalanche are 6-2-2. Both teams have 14 points in those 10 games, both teams decidedly dissatisfied with the current state of affairs. This is going to be an interesting game, and an interesting week.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers have an emerging prospect in Noah Philp
- Lowetide: Oilers centre Ryan McLeod’s comparables and career trajectory
- DNB: The Ben Stelter Fund is a legacy his family, Connor McDavid and the Oilers will proudly carry
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers’ 7-11 alignment here to stay?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ asset cost in an Erik Karlsson trade and why it’s worth it
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ interest in trading for Sharks’ Erik Karlsson
- Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s top Oilers linemates and what it could mean for trade plans
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland NHL trade deadline Q&A
- Lowetide: How the Oilers finally found the key to five-on-five outscoring
- DNB: With Kailer Yamamoto nearing a return, which Oilers could be salary-cap casualties?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- DNB: Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins matters more to the Oilers now than ever before
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
- On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
- February actual result: 2-1-3, 7 points in six games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 30-19-7, 67 points in 56 games
This is a big opportunity for the Oilers. The team clearly has some illness going through the room but the Avalanche have some injury issues and Cale Makar left yesterday’s game after some time away. So, we’ll see. A win today sets up February pretty well. I have the Oilers going 2-1-2 over the rest of the month, that would mean leaving February 32-21-9, 73 points in 61 games. That’s a 98-point pace and a playoff berth.
Everyone ahead of Edmonton in the Pacific won last night, and most of the teams behind them did, too. The Oilers are officially burning daylight.
JESSE RETURN?
TSN Insider Chris Johnston reported yesterday the Oilers had preliminary conversations with Jesse Puljujarvi’s representation about a contract renewal. One imagines a lower cap hit, say $2 million per year times two years. I think that would give real value for the Oilers, not certain the player would be doing himself any favors. I do like Ken Holland’s thinking here, I’m a fan of this player and what he brings. The cap issue remains of course, but one assumes the big Finnish winger would be part of a deal that brings in a LH defenceman, Erik Karlsson or a forward.
Mark Spector mentioned Ondrej Kase as an option from the Carolina Hurricanes, and that got me thinking about the range of talent that might be offered to Holland for Puljujarvi in the coming days. Kase has been on IR since November due to a concussion and is listed as LTIR.
Edmonton isn’t going to win this trade. Maybe they can get closer than Kase. Here are some suggestions from an amateur sleuth with a wobbly knowledge of math and no knowledge of how much teams value these names.
- Carolina Hurricanes: RW Ondrej Kase. He’s on LTIR with a concussion, so it’s unknown how available he might be. Edmonton would save $1.5 million in a straight deal, and of course the Hurricanes might retain. If Kase can play, and remain healthy, he could help the Oilers in a middle-six role. He has averaged 18-21-39 per 82 games during his NHL career.
- Carolina Hurricanes: LW Dominik Bokk. A player I liked plenty on his draft day (I had him No. 18), Bokk is having a strong season in the top German league (DEL). He is scoring 24-25-49 in 43 games, that goal total is No. 3 in the league. He’s 23, I have no idea if he’s an NHL player, but there’s no cap hit and the Oilers need players with potential who could conceivably help out next season.
- Florida Panthers: LC Aleksi Heponiemi. He’s 24 and not yet established as an NHL player. Heponiemi is the kind of skill player who could find chem with 97 or 29. He’s a great passer, great speed. He’s 41, 9-20-30 in the AHL this season and 1-2-3 in 10 NHL games.
- Florida Panthers: RW Justin Sourdif. He’s 20 and a former Edmonton Oil Kings forward, so that may disqualify him in the minds of some. A smaller player who can also move to center, he has a plus shot and is a streaky offensive player. He has scored 7-12-19 in 38 AHL games and has yet to appear in an NHL game.
- New York Rangers: RW Julien Gauthier. He was rumoured to be the trade piece for JP back when Gauthier was in Carolina, and maybe he’s the guy Manhattan trades now. I will tell you his career NHL numbers (27 points in 136 games) don’t shine, but he has six goals in 40 games this season (1.09 goals-60) so maybe a corner has been turned. I would rate him as the No. 5 option on this list (ahead of only Bokk).
- Tampa Bay Lightning: LW Rudolfs Balcers. Always a favourite of mine, he has scored 14-16-30 per 82 games over his NHL career. He is a two-way winger, I think he’s going to have a career despite being 25 with just 170 NHL games played.
PATRICK KANE?
It doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, beyond finding a winger who in theory would be a dominant option for the McDavid line. I just don’t know how you get this trade done. I understand Chicago retains, and assume Jesse Puljujarvi is one of the pieces heading out, but Ken Holland would be unwise to invest heavy assets to procure this player. Too much for too little, in my opinion. Erik Karlsson is worth it.
LOWETIDE TRADE LIST
- RD Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks.
- LD Jakob Chychrun, Arizona Coyotes.
- LD Jake McCabe, Chicago Blackhawks.
- RW Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks.
- RW Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues.
- RC Nick Bjugstad, Arizona Coyotes.
- LW Tanner Jeannot, Nashville Predators (new addition)
- LC Lars Eller, Washington Capitals.
- RW Taylor Raddysh, Chicago Blackhawks.
- LD Dmitri Kulikov, Anaheim Ducks (new addition)
New for The Athletic: Revisiting Oilers’ choice of Philip Broberg at the 2019 NHL Draft
https://theathletic.com/4227784/2023/02/20/oilers-philip-broberg-draft/
and here I was hoping to enjoy a holiday Monday……
Is it goalie? 5×5
High danger CA: 7th lowest
Top 6 – MNW, CAR, BOS, VGK, NJD, CAL
High danger CF%: 6th highest
Top 5 – CAR, TBL, NJD, TML, SJS
High danger GA: 16th best (59)
Top 7 – BOS (38), TBL(45), TML(46), CAR(47), DAL(47), NYR(51), NJD (53)
HIGH danger sV%: 21st
Mid danger CA: 8th lowest
Mid danger CF%:15th best
Mid danger GA: 12th best
Mid danger sv%: 20th
Low danger CA: 11th lowest
Low danger CF%:11th best
Low danger GA: 20th best
Low danger sv%: 20th
5×5 sv% – 20th
Pk sv% – 26th
Pretty sure goalie out dragging defence on anchor weight with only Asterix being -> pretty sure RHD sinking pk% but not sure how to pull numbers in games they literally add a better defensive defender in Vinny d mainly to pk.
Woody knows it. The fact ceci is massively ahead in pk minutes than Bouchard or barrie compared to nurse and other LHD options.
One area I don’t remember being talked about on this blog or much at all is blocking shots. This doesn’t seem to be much of a focus for the Oilers but I recall Tampa specifically is really good at this. It seems almost impossible to get shots through at times. At a quick glance at the stats of games we are always much less in the blocked shots department. In some sense it is good because it means less shots directed at net but if I was playing in front of Jack Campbell or coaching on a team with our level of goaltending I’d be putting a focus on getting in front of shots.. other than Mcdavid you don’t want him blocking shots! Thoughts?
Convince JC to give up his NTC and include him in the Karlsson trade.
Kahkonen could help to make the money work.
May be tougher to convince Mike Grier…..
I really wish this team would commit to playing a solid defensive team game. At the end of the day, they need to do everything possible to not finish below third in their division. Pulling out Desharnais and Holloway to insert Yamamoto is proving to be an awful move. I thought JP for the second straight game deserved way more ice time than 8 min. Starting to believe Campbell is far from a #1 goalie.
All numbers EV strength, when leading, since Jan 1.
Player — GA/60 — xGA/60
McDa — 5.54 — 2.4
Drai — 3.69 — 2.85
McLe — 3.58 — 3.13
Pujo — 3.55 — 3.09
Hyma — 3.52 — 2.67
Foeg — 3.40 — 2.53
Ceci — 5.12 — 2.74
Barr — 3.75 — 2.56
Kula — 3.61 — 2.3
Nurs — 3.27 — 2.69
Those are all the players poorer than the full season league averages cited by Willis. With the possible exception of 71 and 13, from this point of view, it certainly looks like a goaltending issue. Of course, we are talking about limited samples here and the quality of the looks the skaters are giving up is going to have an effect. Noisy data, in other words.
But there’s a consistent trend there over multiple players playing at the top of the roster. Goalering looks suspect.
But keep in mind there are also Oilers better than the league average in GA/60. And they’re posting GA numbers better than their expected goals against. From whence did they come if not the same netminding?
I should add, I did not include Kane or Yams, who have equally bad numbers, disqualifying them based on smaller sample sizes.
Condors 5/12 on the PP
Young Willis with a glaring stat about how substandard our D-core is:
https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1627518505011777536?t=b2gkMpf95Di5iKDTblGssw&s=19
Don’t be fooled.
Those numbers are torqued by two wildly inconsistent men in the crease.
Markstrom forgetting how to play goal is going to cause the Flames to do some very dumb things in the months to come.
Jack Campbell was a very strange bet for Holland. There were no underlying fancies or upfront metrics that showed anything but an older wildly inconsistent goalie. And that’s what’s we’ve got.
Well there was the career .916 SV%.
#8 in the league the 4 years before Holland made the strange bet.
Some players ya just gotta watch.
He’s been getting more volatile as the league has got offensive. And he gets more volatile when he’s asked to carry a heavier load. Watched a lot of Leafs last year. Was shocked at the cost and length Holland gave him with half a season as starter and 135 games on his resume.
I was expecting volatility. I wasn’t expecting AHL emergency sub bad…
One thing I find curios about Woody is his Tippet like stubbornness on players and goalies. He stopped rotating once Soup found a groove, rode him hard enough to yank Stu out of his groove. Now both are out of a groove. He seems to really hate the cut of guys sideburns who play bottom wing roles. No matter how they play.
Cant second guess too hard when the fancies showed a very good Oiler game.
Single events can have large impacts.
Im not really upset of even annoyed that much though. We’re in the fun part of the process right now. Fine tuning the dials, getting ready for a push. So much better than even four years ago nevermind the DoD
I think the goaltending is a big part of that equation.
Fair,
What’s the saying?
Good goaltending covers all sins & sinners alike.
My eyes (insert joke) tell me there are issues with both.
Jack is below replacement level this year.
You can’t cover up how bad his body of work has been. Stu got infected by it in January.
Its a testament to the underlying strength of the team that they are where they are despite having to play Jack.
Is that a comment on a poor D core, poor goaltending, or poor forward support. Or all three? J-Dub doesn’t say. No doubt those are bad numbers. If I pull them for the forwards, they’re just as bad or worse through a large chunk of the roster. And the goalie doesn’t look good either.
Ok last one.
Literally anyone would be a statistically better bet than Jack in goal right now.
Honest to god it would be addition by subtraction to wave him completely and run with Stu and whoever you can shoehorn into that cap.
3.31 and an 0.880 statline… whooof! Lol
That is a nadir that makes Mikko Koskinen smile.
I’m shocked that the blog doesn’t spend more time just openly teeing off on how crap Jack Campbell has been this season.
Easier to blame nurse I guess? 😉
Could it be that this blog realizes it’s the same problem year after year, goalie after goalie? I suppose the organization keeps signing & developing crappy goaltenders, but I think the problem isn’t that simple.
I don’t think the Oilers are world beaters defensively. Far from it.
But if they are as bad as you’re suggesting their records should be a lot worse with the numbers Soup (or Mikko last year) are putting up. Leads me to think the goalers aren’t pulling their weight. Glances at the Fancies across the season seem to tease that out too.
Here’s hoping Soup can adjust. I really liked him today until the ten minute mark of the 2nd. The 4-3 goal can’t go in. I find myself saying that way too oftenZ
Heres hoping he can figure it out and bump that 6th worst save percentage in the league up a few spots. I don’t need a Vezina winner, just a bit better than worst in the effing league would do 👍
To be perfectly honest, YES… this organization does have a sordid history of signing & developing crappy goalers. glad I’m not the only one who noticed 😉
Putting the D numbers out there and nothing else certainly implies a comment on the D. Agree there’s lots more to the story.
No doubt. But what is his cmment exactly? He doesn’t say. Is it just correlation? Causation? Is he baiting the public or indicting the players? I don’t know. I think he’s just playing it smart and not committing to anything.
Unfortunately, as I point out, he’s actually saying not a lot, because all the units have poor numbers.
Looked and he has another couple of tweets about the forwards, which I think show more clearly it’s intended as an indictment of the players.
He leaves out a remarkable amount of the context though. All of it really.
Heh, thanks, made me go look. I actually checked his numbers earlier, then date ranged them from the 1st of Jan. Some of the players look even more horrific. Connor, Yams, Ceci… Like horrific.
And there’s something to be said for being 2nd worst in the League at something, like McDavid is at that GA/60. You might be playing a role in your demise.
Seems like every game we find a different way to shoot ourselves in the foot. We’re finding ways to lose again, like earlier in the season. When this team plays with good structure and smart puck management, the goaltending looks better. But I don’t think it has been good enough either, regardless.
Skinner needs to seize this role when he’s feeling kopasetic, because there will be no help coming via trade. And everyone else needs to pull up their socks too.
Yeah. I guess I’d add luck to the laundry list of issues (and I agree there have been issues with all of F, D and G).
McDavid’s 2nd worst in GA/60 when leading (and 7th in GF/60 as Willis notes), but also has the 3rd worst on ice SV% (.852).
Sure it’s possible he could have some role in that latter number, but I’m pretty sure he was also on the ice for the Ceci own goal tonight, the Nurse deflection goal, at least one of the Broberg own goals against Detroit.
McDavid doesn’t own those goals against (nor Ceci, Nurse, Broberg. Not really Campbell either). Just shit luck.
I’m really not sure an indictment of McDavid, Draisaitl, Ceci, Nurse is warranted here.
I don’t disagree. Two bounces in don’t happen and we win comfortably and we’re probably not having this conversation tonight, because we largely played well. 62-41 in the possession battle at 5v5, 34-26 in SF, 28-14 SCF, 13-6 HDCF.
There’s too many clean open shots that have blown by campbell to blame defensive structure too far.
Everyone knew this D core was going to be average at best at defending. The G just needed to be a bit better than average because they were going to score goals.
Campbell was a reasonable bet to provide at least average goaltending and to stay healthy. That’s been the biggest hole all season though. No easy way out there other than to IR him for being full of holes
Damning to say the least
Reasonable bet at 3M X 3
The one positive about these last 3 games being gifted to inferior teams (yep, I said it) is that at least the “you can’t trade anyone at the deadline because chemistry blah blah blah” won’t stand up.
I disagree with this.
The recent play has made the juggling job harder, not easier.
They are a few Campbell saves away from running away with games.
We’re on the knife edge to very positive. Likely that a winning streak is coming.
They’re five back of the West lead.
Need to stick to the program and tighten up just a tad. So close, so very close now.
The margin can’t be left that close. Many positions that could be upgraded to ensure they can smack Boston in a series.
This team, jeebus….
I’ve been dealing with headaches the last couple of weeks, but like all nagging ailments I am eventually able to just get used to them. However, this team just drove the nails in my temples a bit deeper.
I have decided to drastically lower my expectations and at this point I will have to be happy with a playoff berth, despite only 1 loss on their record in the last 10 games. They seemingly have most of the games within their grasp and then it all turns to sand. I gave up after the 3rd goal and I just fast-forwarded to the end (I always record the games and watch an hour or more after puck drop, so I can skip commercials, etc).
This is a high-scoring team, but they aren’t out scoring their mistakes. At least the depth players have been scoring, eh?
I thought it would be interesting to compile this info to see who has been producing, hopefully some readers will find this interesting. Here are basic individual stats for each players’ last 10 games played:
Goals_Assists_Points_+ \ -_PP Pts
CMD 3_13_16_Even_8
RNH 6_9_15_+1_9
ZH 4_11_15_Even_6
LD 6_4_10_-7_4
WF 5_2_7_+3_0
DN 0_7_6_+4_0
TB 4_2_6_-3_3
EK 4_2_6_-5_0
RM 3_2_5_+1_0
KY 2_3_5_+1_0
DR 4_0_4_+5_0
MJ 1_3_4_+2_0
JP 1_2_3_+2_0
VD 0_3_3_+8_0
BK 0_3_3_+3_0
PB 0_3_3_+3_0
EB 0_3_3_+1_1
CC 0_2_2_Even_0
KK 0_1_1_Even_0
PP: 8/24 = 33.3%
PK: 22/28 = 78.6%
Shots for: 335 Shots Against: 315
Goals for: 40 Goals Against: 36
Shooting %: 11.9 Save %: 0.886
Condors get a PP with 2 minute to go, up 3 in a chippy game and Chaulk throws out a real PP unit.
Benson with the zone entry, to Philp who beats a man wide, centre’s it to Lavoie driving the lane and BOOM – rips home his fourth of the night.
that team’s just been lit since pretty much New Year’s
Patty Kane with a hat trick and apple today. Performing well despite the debilitating hip injury OP keeps telling us about.
RoR a -2 as the Leafs lose to the Hawks… god that’s embarrassing.
Thank-you, haha
This honestly makes me feel better
I already called myself out in this very blog but good job doing it yourself, multiple times.
Yes, Kane had a great night – got himself up to only about 17-18 points below his normal total for 52 games.
The fact he’s dealing with a hip issue is, well, a fact.
The fact that he’s having, by far, the worst offensive season of his career is, well, a fact.
I can’t prove causation but I can certainly provide a hypothesis driven opinion.
He’s be a very exciting addition. I’m not convinced he can perform at historical levels.
McPhee-Esposito-Kambeitz
Tullio-Philp-Griffth
Benson-McKegg-Bailey
Bourgault-Hamblin-Lavoie
Neimelainen-Demers
Peters-Kesselring
Kaldis-Kemp
Panthers could find themselves passed by two teams shortly and on the outside looking in. Gudas could become available.
Islanders and Caps are going to be in tough to make the second season. Mayfield is cheap and on an expiring. Jensen, a former Holland draft pick, is a little more expensive, same AAV as Gudas, but can play the toughs. Both play more against the elites than Gudas.
Problem of course is these teams aren’t going to pull the plug till the playoffs look nigh impossible, which likely means no help till the deadline.
Forwards, there’s a whole mishmash available, especially if the Caps and the Cats and the Isles all come to their senses.
If we are looking at the Caps, the is also Orlov along with Jensen.
I like Gudas but, really, only as a back-fill if they trade from the right side in an upgrade at the top. Adding Gudas to the existing group would add depth (essentially a Vinny replacement) but at a salary cap cost (which can be cut, of course) but he can’t play up th line-up any more (I don’t think). Schenn is the cheaper option for that role, for me.
I think the Isles want to re-sign Mayfield, the Caps want to re-sign Orlov (I don’t know about Jensen) and the Canucks want to re-sign Schenn – not sure if any of them will be moved but, yes, all have valid points of consideration.
I didn’t mention Orlov because I was keeping it to righties. AAV is tougher to swallow there too. But yes, he is definitely quality. Bob likes him too.
Might have to make a gentleman’s agreement that we aren’t extending, say, Mayfield. 😉 I know, By-the-book Lou would never go for it.
Oilers are just not good enough to get to the cup. The goalies are inconsistent and can’t be counted on, the D is not consistent. Oilers 1st round drafting has been average in the last couple of years .Chiarelli really hurt the team, with trades and draft and put the team into cap problems. Holland has been an upgrade but still no signs of Oilers going to the Cup.
Sad Sack Oilers are five back from 1st in the West and play all the teams ahead of them down the stretch.
I don’t think you understand how easy the path to the Cup is
I would say a hatty each (and 4 points for Tulio) though 2 periods satisfies my request.
Have we heard if Dylan OK?
On the pre-game, Stauffer said it was a shoulder. Sounds like “week to week” right now, not month-to-month.
I’m speculating – but wonder if it’s not a slight/mild separation which can be a couple week injury.
Check That: Double Hatty – the PP continues and Lavoie one-times home his own hatty from the Stamkos spot.
That would be two hattrick to the real prospects.
Gulls losing it and take a cross-checking penalty giving the Condors a 2-minute 5 on 3.
They win the draw, greta puck movement for 30 seconds, some great puck retrieval, Bailey to Griffith cross-ice to Tulio who one-times home the HATTY from the Ovi spot.
6-3.
Hamblin taken down away from the play on a very similar play to what Benson got the major for last night – don’t think a call was coming.
200 feet away from the play some mouth-breathing goon with a couple major cross-checks to Kesselring (in front or Rodrigue), takes Kesselring down and starts slapping him in the face. Just pure goonery! As he’s getting escorted to the room, he’s calling out the Condors bench.
Travis Howe I think.
Ya, Travis Howe: 6’4, 235, 29-year old career ECHLer.
21 career AHL games and a couple hundred ECHL.
He got a double minor – should have been more.
MORE GOALS!
Bailey tripped on the zone entry but no worries as Griffith battles to get it back, some quick edges behind the net to create a passing lane, out to Tulio who rips home his 2nd of the game.
5-3 with half a game to go.
Condors get that right back.
Benson on the zone entry – huge battle behind the net, Condors dig it out, Bourgault with the diving pass to Lavoie in the slot and he rips it home – rips it.
2nd goal of the period for Lavoie – I asked if a new heater was being started – looks like it.
While on the PP, Kesselring with full possession and no pressure in the defensive zone – setting up, circles back, starts to get pressured, stripped and scored on.
Maybe should have been a penalty on the attacker that stripped him of the puck (and took him down) but, nope, not good at all by Kesselring.
Since Jan 1
5v5 GA/60
Holloway 1.38
Ryan 1.6
Kostin 1.66
Foegele 1.8
Nuge 1.85
Puljujarvie 1.86
Janmark 1.9
Yamamoto 1.98
Hyman 2.78
McLeod 3.05
Draisaitl 3.26
Kane 3.87
McDavid 3.92
That’s not good enough. I don’t care if you’re 1-2 in league scoring
It’s not, but there’s a ton of bad luck in those numbers.
McDavid, Kane, McLeod, Draisaitl have the 4 worst on ice SV% among the forwards since Jan 1st.
xGA/60 for those 4 (same order as I just listed) are: 2.40, 2.51, 2.52, 2.81.
Since Jan 1
5v5 pts/60
Hyman 3.38
McDavid 2.94
Foegele 2.89
McLeod 2.5
Janmark 2.17
Draisaitl 2.11
Nuge 2.08
Holloway 1.73
Kostin 1.66
Ryan 1.6
Kane 1.55
Puljujarvi 1.48
Yamamoto 1.32
Bourgault almost extends the lead on the next shift but was denied and the Gulls score o the ensuring rush – a very nice skilled play – Demers kind of victimized
Since Jan 1
5v5 +/-
Broberg +12
Bouchard +10
Desharnais +5
Nurse +4
Kulak +3
Barrie -1
Ceci -4
That lines up with my thought yesterday that Ceci and Barrie would be 2 of the 3 who I would upgrade if possible not that Holland would
From various accounts, Holland is trying to structure the acquisition of Erik Karlsson but you don’t think he’d upgrade on Barrie or Ceci?
Is Vinny’s 10-14 min is missed dearly
2nd PP unit with a wonderful rush.
Bourgault behind his own net, leaves it for Kaldis who come up the defensive zone, a bullet pass to center to Benson who one-touches it to Bourgault with speed and right over to Lavoie barling down the right side, cuts in on net and rings one off the far post – a wonderful play that didn’t quite cash.
With that said, the play continues and massive pressure with great battles and puck retrievals by Philp and Lavoie and somehow they don’t score in the scramble.
Lavoie with two great keeps at the point, and then Niemelainen with the best zone keep of them all, down to Lavoie who circles takes it hard to the slot and rips it for the 3-1 lead.
Great to see Lavoie get back on the scoresheet – he’s still been playing well the last few games (which is great) but the points had dried up.
Heater up coming?
Since Jan 1 (19 total team games)
5v5 +/-
Hyman +11
Nuge +10
Holloway +5
Ryan +5
Kostin +5
Foegele +3
Puljujarvi +3
Janmark +3
McLeod +3
Yamamoto +1 (7gp)
McDavid 0
Draisaitl -3
Kane -6
I mentioned it a few times during the annual December swoon – the team was losing the goal battle with both McDavid and Drai on the ice and, while those two were lighting the world on the fire on the PP, the team is going to go nowhere unless both those two are massive outscores at evens.
McDavid recovered to a positive goal share but has regressed a bit recently.
Drai hasn’t recovered and still leaks. The main issue there is Drai isn’t producing at evens – today was his best 5 on 5 game to my eye in a long long time.
What an absolutely wonderful goal
Great battle behind the net by Griffith, drop it for Philp behind the net and Griffith releases to the side boards and takes the return pass and then a nice pass to Tulio in the slot who rips home the one-timer for the 2-1 lead.
Tulio from Griffith and Philp.
1G/1A period for Tulio.
I spend week talking about how P. Kane makes no sense given his injury has created his offence and he proceeds to produce a hatty in half a game tonight….
Post-dog walk and old-fashioned thoughts:
-Disappointing loss. Two blown 3-goal leads against top teams does not instill confidence that this group has the requisite killer instinct to win a cup.
-Campbell is having a wild season. Sparkling W/L record but absolutely dreadful sv%.
-I thought the Oil played very well. Colorado capitalized on the rare mistakes.
-Important to remember the Oilers were shorthanded in back to back games.
-The play of the bottom six is very encouraging.
His save percentage is dreadful but, more crippling, his GSAA is bottom of the league, and that’s before he gave up 6 in a game where his expected goals again was 2.4 (per NST).
Ooop, Bourgault with an egregious own zone turnover at his blue line for a breakaway and quick=strike goal against.
1-1-
Condors get their own PP – and they whip it around for 10 seconds and score a beauty.
Tulio wins draw and gets it back to the point, over to Griffith on the half boards, cross-ice to the far half boards to Tulio who hits Bailey back-door for the 1-0 lead.
Just watched Jay Woodcroft’s postgame presser and it was a marked departure from his usual style of after-game interviews. Typically, even following a tough loss, Jay focuses on the positives and talks about what the team did well (at least in his message to the press/public), often speaking to good effort and shots, etc.
Today however, Jay was visibly frustrated, and he was brutally honest in “not dressing up” another yet another terrible blown lead. I think this speaks to the overall frustration building in the team.
After all, let’s not forget the Oilers were in a position only about a week ago to fully take over 1st place in the division with a simple win, yet they now find themselves in a wildcard spot. In that span, they have blown lead after lead (including multiple 3 goal leads) thanks to a brutal combination of terrible defensive play and bad goaltending. They also dropped games to the dregs of the league in Montreal and Philly.
Holland needs to adjust and help his team out. I like what Toronto did adding O’Reilly and Acciari for example – yes, they paid a big price and it may be risky, but I like their add given where Toronto is at. I see the Oilers at a similar place, as Mcdavid and Drai are in their mid twenties and the time to go is now.
Frankly, I feel Holland needs to stop his dithering on players like Puljujarvi and make a damn decision. Regardless of how you feel about Pulju, he is clearly not going to reach his potential on this team, that much is clear. The Oilers are better off to clear his cap space asap and get players who can help in this system with this coach. The fact that Vinny D. has sat two games where I feel he could have made a positive difference with his defensive play and physicality is unacceptable imo. Sitting Vinny D. for Pulju has ultimately not been helpful to the Oilers in my opinion.
If the Oilers ever want to compete with the actual good teams in the league, they need to commit themselves fully to responsible defensive play and Holland needs to provide more depth who have game for the playoffs. Finally, acknowledging that Campbell has made some big saves recently, i would also say the Oilers need more damn saves. Too many missed stops that will ultimately separate the winners from the losers.
100% agree
Toronto lost to Chicago today…
Tampa lost to Arizona the other night.
Shit happens. They’re 5 back of Vegas and Dallas for 1st in the West. The sky hasn’t fallen. In fact this is the most efficient losing streak they’ve had since 16-17. Style points.
Kane with a hat trick and an apple as the Hawks rolled Dubas’ super awesome defensive forward two. OP says he’s injured without ever watching him play…
We should trade for him right now. Cost will be a lot cheaper and less disruptive than EK. 👍
What are your playoff expectations?
Wait a second – how the eff do you know I’ve never watched him play? That is false, plain and simple.
I also know he’s injured because, well, he is injured – its not really a secret.
Condors take a penalty off the opening draw – not sure I’ve ever seen such an early minor penalty.
They do get a SH 3 on 1 – too many passes though.
Hey, the after-thought, Olivier Rodrigue, with the start.
Patrick Kane with a hat trick vs the Leafs.
I heard he was washed up a shell of his former self.
He has been a shell of himself offensively this year and, yup, I’ve posted about it alot the last while – called myself out on it in this very blog as well about an hour ago.
Yeah the downfall of this player is greatly exaggerated. He has a crap team and nothing to play for. Remember how we used to tell other teams that Hall was good despite being on trash teams. Yeah like that
Although this not a player we need unless we want to give up 4 goal leads
No winger can cure what is missing. If they can’t get the puck where it’s needed nobody can score. A proper 3 C and they aren’t using Nuge there enough for that to be a thing. Preferably RS. And some D that have a fuller game. These one dimensional types are killing the 5v5 offense as I see it. You can carry a couple lower or correctly paired, but not 4 out of 6 crashing each pairing
I know these guys want someone to help pad their stats but they need someone that can win face offs, tie up sticks and control the lanes. You know like what teams do to us when they have the lead and we can’t establish possession
Although if you can get Karlsson you got to do it and no matter how many Schaefer’s you sacrifice to do it
just get a Luke Schenn while you are at it
Needs to be a LD Schenn though
8 extra time games in the row where the Oilers can’t grab a Bettman point.
The Oilers deserved 2 points in regulation tonight, we all know the main reason they didn’t get it, and I’m happy that they got the well-earned point for the regulation tie but, at some point, they’ve got to grab the extra-Bettman point awarded in the 3-point games.
I thought the OT loser point was the bettman?
My opinion is that the loser point has *become* the Bettman point, but there was always a point for a tie. The extra point for shootout win came into existence after Bettman so it *should* be the Bettman
Not in my opinion.
In my opinion, the “Bettman Point” is the extra 3rd point given out in the system that Bettman created where sone games are worth two points and some are worth three.
The two teams tied the regulation game and earned their point.
Rags got the extra Bettman point.
3 on 3 OT and, moreso, the shootout are where the extra Bettman point is available – not hockey situations.
McPhee and Kambeitz in for Holloway and Malone.
Going to be a tough one after a hard-earned win last night and travel.
Can Philp remain hot?
Would like to see the Lavoie/Tulio winger duo get back on the scoresheet!
For me, I’ve essentially given up on Campbell being “the guy” for a playoff run this season.
I presume he’ll have one more “heater” like he did in January but I don’t think he’ll be able to give this team playoff level tending on a consistent basis. That “heater” where he won 9 straight starts wasn’t even really all that great, was it? He played well, don’t get me wrong, but I think he rocked like a .920 in that stretch and stole, what, one game? He was good but its not like he was lights out hot, right.
Other than that stretch where we was really good, he’s been awful essentially all year.
With THAT SAID, I am not at the point where I’m giving up on the player for good. There are many examples of tenders changing teams and struggling for a full year prior to settling in – that’s not that uncommon. That’s my hope right now because, if things don’t start getting better for next season, well, that’s a crippling contract for term.
Goaltending is just another reason to keep our powder dry until next season.
I agree with this. Disappointing. Never know with goalies – could be fine next year, but this year I wouldn’t bet on it. Looks small in the net. Known confidence issues.
Would have to be an injury to one of the G to consider a replacement, but not much out there. Best way to improve the G is to improve the D this year.
Goalies have a much easier time behind a stable team that defends consistently and predictably
This is why Oiler goalies struggle unless smoking hot, which most aren’t all the time
Nurse was absolutely brutal in OT. Avs repeatedly entered the zone for an uncontested shot or pass while he backs in with no attempt at gap control. A complete liability at 3v3 today.
You can defend the contract to your heart’s content but it’s pretty hard to defend his play today. He played like a scared D that’s been walked too many times by faster Ws
Nurses forte is not 3v3 hockey
So why play him? The coaches need to play who’s best where needed, and maybe if a guy who has been minted isn’t that guy, it’ll motivate them to smarten the **** up
With top players it’s between the ears, they have the ability or they wouldn’t be top, right?
I can certainly defend his play in regulation where he absolutely crushed 18 5 on 5 minutes playing against:
MacKinnon
Nichushkin
Girard
Toews
Rantanen
Lehtkonen
Manson
Byram
He had a good game.
he’s not a player you play 3v3 though
He didn’t tie up the stick on the equalizer and got walked in OT for the winner.
There’s a definition for a shutdown defender and that ain’t it.
What Goalie stops the tying Goal? Have people never seen a batter in baseball who just ticks the 3rd strike yet the catcher misses it 95% of the time because it’s been Deflected. Unless you have reflexes of a Cat your not going to be able to gauge it. On the winning Goal Campbell bit on the shot from Rantanan who was attempting to shoot but he flubbed it perfectly to spot where he could score.
Colorado ran a soft pick play. McDavid and Draisaitl should do more of that in OT.
I’ve said this many times; Nurse is not a player you put on the ice in OT. I understand he has scored a couple of OT goals in his career, but overall his game is a liability in 3 vs 3, which he shows time and time again.
The current 3 on 3 deployment has gotten stale and predictable and theyre usuallt tired after the 3rd. Be interesting to see Broberg out there.
We need to get some wins in the next few games or we enter TDL as a bubble team and Holland probably keeps his powder dry.
I thought the Avs were terrible today. Oil weren’t great either, but I thought they were the better team. Campbell’s body language was awful in the third. He was swimming in the net. Just knew if the Avs got a sniff it was going in. And it did.
It was too clever by half to send Holloway and Desharnais down. The Oilers should have just waived one of Foegele, Yamamoto, or Puljujarvi.
Foegele and Yamamoto have another year on their contracts. No way anyone would have claimed them. And if they did, it would be no great tragedy.
Holloway is too good for the AHL. Only bad things could happen there, and they did.
Start as you mean to go on. Holloway and Desharnais are part of the future. The other three are not.
These two players make 6 million combined.
A complete drag on the salary cap.
You could have a couple of good checkers with better hands than these 2 for half the price.
Which 2?
Holland is fond of limited players it seems, or at least doesn’t have problem with it, or values other things and doesn’t see a problem or something
I think that is exactly the problem with the issues that they can’t get over as a team to take the next steps. Connor and Leon are different, but need to be accountable to their team if they are not doing as much as they should, especially 5v5. Not so special that they get a complete pass on the right kind of play. Nobody should
I want players good at team play so the group has a real chance to succeed, get their job done well and consistently, play well in a way that they don’t get needlessly hurt because availability is important, and get enough points to justify their spot
Actually I thought the Oilers played well today. I think they carried the play for large portions of the game and the Avs got a couple of lucky goals of Cecis skate and Nurses shin pad.
I would have liked to see Campbell make the save on the 3rd GA and freeze the puck on the 4th.
I thought Bouchard had a really good game BUT, he lost OConner behind the net on the 4th goal. And didn’t really even try to get back to the front of the net. And how many whacks at the loose puck did he give to Toews in OT. The assertiveness and effort level in defending just isn’t there a lot of nights with this player. If he doesn’t figure it out, the best he’s ever going to be is a 3rd pairing PP quarterback.
All in all, a much better game by the Oilers though.
Oilers carried the entire game. The only thing standing between a 2 or 3 goal win was the play of Campbell.
Ya I really hope Bouch gets it, he could have such a good career
When I criticize management about player evaluation this is exactly why
If they can’t tell if he’s going to grow soon, or not, I think it’s a fail. If you can’t tell after over 30 + years of evaluating players…… Some guys don’t ever get it, and they are cap killers if they can produce
If he’s Barrie 2.0 cash him while he’s got peak value, which he does now being young and not yet fully known and having shown strong offense
The flu and cap constraints have teamed up to return this team to the early season lineup without Deharnais, Kostin & Kane, and I would argue that we look a lot like the team we saw before those players were added to the mix.
It seems like it shouldn’t be that big of a deal, but a few of these recent games have been lost on weak penalty killing, and certainly the defense in general has looked like it did earlier in the season when we were playing 6 d regularly.
There is an incredibly thin line between winning and losing in this league, and it seems the 7 d system takes a bit of pressure off of our weak d corps and the added toughness and swagger that some of these players bring may just tip the scale that little bit in our favour.
I hope that is the case at least, because the alternative is that the goaltending is just irredeemably bad and in that case it almost doesn’t make sense to hope for much until we can change that, and who knows when that will be. I for one hope Campbell looks better once the team gets back to its winning formation and evens out their game.
Add to that, we don’t have Skinnwr available to take over when Campbell struggles, and it has been tough sledding for the last while here.
My two cents. Hopefully better days on their way.
This is accurate. Haven’t looked at stats but Campbell had to bottom of the barrel for quality starts
Haha Rob Brown blaming it on giving up too many scoring chances. Yeah 6 total high danger chances at 5×5 is too many. Man I know the out of town media buy into this kind of narrative but that’s a pretty rich take. By either the eye test or the stats it was clear they didn’t give up too many good scoring chances.
I wouldn’t be worried yet.
They’re actually rolling right now sans Jack and Stu.
It’ll fall together very quick if they don’t abandon the program. A roll is coming. Don’t be too angry and don’t be too surprised when it happens.
Anyone else getting a feeling of Kane to LTIR and then nabbing Kane so we can have Kane Squared in the playoffs?
Patrick Kane has not been good this, he’s a hopeless defensive player and he’s hurt. If Kane gets traded whoever gets him will wind up regretting it
Patty Kane would be the 5th highest scoring Oiler right now.
He’s playing 20 minutes a night the last month.
Maybe he’s playing out the side on a joke of a team?
Well very disappointing but with some perspective.. team played hard. Very short handed and with some goals Jack would want back. Yamamoto being back from IR has actually hurt this team.
That was without Makar too.
Oilers without Evander and Vinny, the latter has had a huge impact in the games he has played.
And Landeskog
Dreaming of Landeskog playing is like dreaming of Klefbom playing….
Has Carolina given up a two goal lead all year. Watch their tape and do what they do