In the summer of 2018, I published this graph to represent the “McDavid cluster” and discussed the idea of these seven men winning Stanley together. A change in general managers and several coaching shuffles meant Ethan Bear was sent away and we may see Jesse Puljuarvi exit soon. This is the McDavid cluster then, what does it look like now?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 5 Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of NHL trade deadline
- DNB: 15 Oilers targets ahead of the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: What’s going on with Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl?
- DNB: Oilers captain Connor McDavid surpasses 800 career points
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice of Philip Broberg at the 2019 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Oilers have an emerging prospect in Noah Philp
- Lowetide: Oilers centre Ryan McLeod’s comparables and career trajectory
- DNB: The Ben Stelter Fund is a legacy his family, Connor McDavid and the Oilers will proudly carry
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers’ 7-11 alignment here to stay?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ asset cost in an Erik Karlsson trade and why it’s worth it
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ interest in trading for Sharks’ Erik Karlsson
- Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s top Oilers linemates and what it could mean for trade plans
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland NHL trade deadline Q&A
- Lowetide: How the Oilers finally found the key to five-on-five outscoring
- DNB: With Kailer Yamamoto nearing a return, which Oilers could be salary-cap casualties?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- DNB: Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins matters more to the Oilers now than ever before
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
- On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
- February actual result: 4-1-4, 12 points in nine games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 32-19-8, 72 points in 59 games
Edmonton is on pace to finish 44-26-12, 100 points and that’s a nice neighbourhood. The team has the best goal differential in the division and is within a whisper of the top spot in the Pacific. The conference? Yes.
DEFENSE AND GOALTENDING
Darnell Nurse had an excellent game, five shots, a takeaway, a big shot block at the end of the first period. Good positioning, 4-2 shots and 1-0 goals in eight minutes against the Crosby line. Cody Ceci was his partner most of the night, 6-3 shots and 2-0 goals. Pairing is now 34-35, 49 percent this season at five-on-five. Last year, the two men were 21-18, 54 percent, after Jay Woodcroft took over as coach. January-February have been tough for this pairing. I thought the defense played well on a night when danger wasn’t as prominent as in normal games. Bouchard and Broberg didn’t handle the first goal well, but they’ve been money (18-15 for the season) and if you’re going to keystone cops a GA, doing it in a 7-2 thrashing is a plan. Tyson Barrie was most effective on the power play, now has 10-31-41 for the season.
FORWARDS
So many great performances, the mind boggles. Connor McDavid was fantastic again, the penalty shot was exceptional. I thought Leon Draisaitl played a strong game, and in fact all of the top players were quality. Among the complementary players, for me Kailer Yamamoto showed well and is clearly returning to peak form. Jesse Puljujarvi had a fine game, he’s coming on now for sure. Devin Shore played well, Warren Foegele too. It’s tough to pick out a player who was a drag on things, Mattias Janmark probably the right answer.
THE PRIME CLUSTER
When looking at an NHL team, I like to focus on “clusters” of players who are in the same age range. I count the ‘prime cluster’ as age 23-26, and for Edmonton the group is deep and rich. Here’s the 2016-17 totals and then this year:
- 2016-17: 515 games, 72-123-195 .379 points and .140 goals
- 2022-23: 339 games, 110-148-258 .761 points and .320 goals
The current prime cluster includes the heart of the order (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) and several complementary pieces of note. Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Klim Kostin, Stuart Skinner, Warren Foegele, Vincent Desharnais, Markus Niemelainen are all included.
Holland won’t be able to acquire a player in that prime window at the deadline, but that should be the goal. In 2019-20, the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired both Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, who fit the model described above (just a little older, but dynamic enough to play a major role and miles from fading).
It’s the closest thing to a Sam Pollock move we’re going to see in this era. The Lightning acquired players with some term remaining on their deals and added them to the prime cluster.
Edmonton moved Brad Holland into a pro scouting role at a higher level this season. He has been credited with helping to get Zach Hyman to Edmonton and that’s worked out well. In staring at the available talent this deadline, it’s apparent there are multiple options combined with high risk. What if the Oilers do as the Lightning did, go counter-trey and acquire a player with term?
Erik Karlsson is the name that immediately comes to mind, after that I wonder about names like Alexander Barabonov and Nico Sturm. It isn’t an easy fit, but Holland was looking at someone. Sturm is money in the faceoff circle. Evgeny Svechnikov was drafted by the Red Wings in 2015, perhaps Holland remains convinced of him. I like Mike Eyssimont more than I should, a result of watching too many Winnipeg Jets games where he was the hardest worker. There’s also this from Aaron Portzline at The Athletic about the Vladislav Gavrikov deal falling through with Boston, and what comes next.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10, TSN1260. We’ll talk Oilers win against the Penguins, tomorrow’s game versus the Columbus Bue Jackets and the trade deadline. MLB rise and shine, and more. Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk head an all-star cast as we kickstart the weekend! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Could you imagine if we had a D that could make a pass from end to blue-line like Leon demonstrated.
I want Chychrun, he’s the right age, cost controlled on a value contract and is 12th in the league for defenseman in P/GP and is a +8 on a not very good team. If we could get him and Bjugstad I’d be over the moon.
I believe he us good enough to be our 1LHD, which would drop Nurse to his appropriate place as 2LD, and make our entire D corps play more appropriate minutes making them all better.
Chychrun Ceci
Nurse Barrie
Kulak Bouchard
Niemo Desharnais
Nurse gets his needed puck moving partner and Kulak can help calm the wobble of Bouchard on the third pairing. Also gives us a shutdown type/puck mover balance on every pair.
Wouldn’t hate an ad of another shutdown vet that has a a mean streak like
Gudas for some insurance.
He’s not a high profile guy, but Nico Sturm works for me as a bottom 6 center. Flip him for Yamomoto if SJS would do it – saves us $1 million – and a line of Sturm-McLeod-JP could be very big, fast and defensively solid. Drai would probably be happy as well.
Jensen is also a guy I have time for on defense if Holland plays small-ball. Maybe go 7 dmen with Bouch as the extra?
Why would he be happy to lose a friend just because his replacement is German? This assumes a lot.
Seravalli
“Their scouting staff also mined Matej Blumel after he didn’t sign with the Edmonton Oilers as a draft pick after what was believed to be an off-ice issue.”
I’ll write more about it tomorrow, but the Bear Foegele trade is one of the rarest trades in the NHL—the lose lose trade!
It can’t be rarer than the trifecta of suckage orchestrated by the Flames, Cats and Jackets last summer.
Each team would have been better off not doing anything and running away from each other at a very quick pace haha
True dat.
8 sog for Kesselring
Summarizing!
The CHL prospects carried the mail this evening.
Schaefer has come alive like Peter Frampton, scoring his 21st and 22nd goals, and chipping in two assists with 7 SOG. He was named 1st star for his efforts. Has seven points in his last two GP.
Chiasson scored twice (now 17 goals on the season) and added an assist, earning 2nd star honours.
Petrov notched an assist.
No soup for Lachance, Määttä (9/13, 69.2 FO%) or Brind’Amour (13/22, 59.1 FO%).
Mazura and Münzenberger did not dress.
Easily his best game since the trade deadline. Looked involved, assertive, less deferential.
It’s really tough to tell a lot in these games where some teams have loaded up and some have dealt their strengths. Seattle is just overpowering the opposition and I’d so much rather our guy had stronger challenges and better opponents for his development, but the playoffs are coming soon enough.
Regulation record (none of that stinkin’ Root Beer — nor OT/SO)
since Jan 1
1 Oilers 12-3 (.800)
2 Avalanche 10-6 (.625)
3 Kings 10-6 (.625)
4 Kraken 13-8 (.619)
5 Golden Knights 9-6 (.600)
6 Predators 11-8 (.579)
7 Jets 11-10 (.524)
8 Flames 7-7 (.500)
9 Wild 7-8 (.467)
10 Blackhawks 7-9 (.438)
11 Stars 5-7 (.417)
12 Sharks 6-10 (.375)
13 Blues 6-11 (.353)
14 Ducks 5-11 (.313)
15 Canucks 5-13 (.278)
16 Coyotes 4-12 (.250)
Shaefer with a shortie!!
Picks up a loose puck in his own end, blows past the two D on their right side as he came across their blue line, breaks in on net all alone and buries it backhand-forehand top right corner
Video evidence:
https://twitter.com/TheWHL/status/1629346487552589827?cxt=HHwWhoDS6e3_zJwtAAAA
that’s a quality pbp voice
Yeah, does all the Tbirds home games. He’s a joy at that level.
Missed Myatovic pushing the puck ahead for the assist.
You can’t beat yourself up like this.
I appreciate your intrepid reporting.
*blows tea out nose*
Important info from Stauffer today on ONow
“Ceci has dealt with a little bit of some core challenges this year that I think have, you know, limited his overall effectiveness in compared to what he brought with Nurse in the second half last year”
After picking up an assist, Schaefer scores on the PP for his 21st goal of the season.
Some interesting numbers on Oilers Dmen, passing and shooting, from Gregor.
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-d-men-passing-and-shooting
These numbers show Nurse in a pretty good light.
Some other fun Nurse numbers
37.1% of his time against elites. 49% DFF against elites.
Overall: 56-59 gf/ga for a 53.33% GF 51.48% CF
w/o Drai and McD: 24-12 gf/ga for a 66.67% GF 54.56% CF
Oops. Typo. It should be 56-49 gf/ga.
Nice. Thank you!
I don’t agree with everything in that article and there’s some narrative-building going on, but there’s also so much wonderful data.
Man, I always knew Barrie was an elite passer, it’s so obvious on the powerplay, but it is nice to see it in numbers. And people should really ease up on Nurse. Bro doesn’t surprise, many of his issues in his own end stem from passing or receiving a pass.Things are still a tad fast for him.
And Boosh, of course is poorer, which we all knew.
I’d be curious to see Ceci’s passing numbers from last year. I don’t think he was as bad as we’re seeing here. I look back at one number we can analyze historically–shooting percentage–and it is all over the place. It’s under 2% this season, but he’s been down there before in his career. And he’s been above 7% too. Was over 5% last season.
Great to see someone else use “success rate” although I was calling it “conversion rate.” Great because confirmation is important in this subjective world we live in.
Ceci’s shot success rate via NST numbers was 2% higher last year than this year at 44.8%, but he’s had a prior year where his shot to corsi rate was a stunning 5% lower this year, and it wasn’t the year he previously shot under 2% either.
Edit: and now I see the injury report above, which makes Ceci make a lot more sense.
Chiasson has struck twice so far on the PP.
Goal 1
Goal 2
And now has an ES assist as the Blades go up 4-1 in the third.
Lavoie going full McDavid:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1629304265406660608
Giving me a bit of a Tage Thompson vibe. Me likey
So cool to see the light bulb gone on for Lavoie.
Like to see him get a cup of coffee in March, give him a test drive in the show.
Yeah, would be nice to get him a few games if circumstances allow (decent chance he’ll be one of the black aces). No big deal if he has to wait until next year though.
It’ll be tough logistically depending on where they end up cap wise post-deadline.
They don’t even have enough regular cap room for a 21 player roster right now and he makes too much to be an emergency recall without cap implications.
The former (real cap space) could change post-deadline, but we’ll have to see.
Also, only 4 non-emergency call-ups permitted post-deadline.
His cap hit being more than the likes of Benson, Malone, Hamblin, Bailey, etc. could be a real factor if they were considering it.
I do think that Holland’s preference would be to leave him down there, continuing to play big minutes and impacting games, rather than a bit player (if that) in the NHL.
For sure. That was the ‘circumstances’ part of my post.
And I agree with you mostly, but was thinking that they probably would want him to be a black ace. There’s lots of veterans in Bakersfield (Benson, Malone, Bailey, Griffith), but I assume Lavoie would be ahead of the youngsters at this point, so he ought to be on the list.
And they’ve put some effort into getting guys in a game if they might be called on in prime time (thinking Broberg here). All the other forwards I’ve listed have played 30+ NHL games.
So maybe they do put a bit of effort into getting him 2 or 3 games down the stretch. We’ll see I guess (and you are right that Lavoie making a little more than $850k does make it more difficult).
Nice quick hands to avoid the stick check
I agree with the others it would be good for him to get a game or two if possible (cap) this season. It would help with his off season training to prepare for NHL games next season as he would be more aware of the speed and strength differences between the N and AHL
Ralph Lavoie just went full McDavid.
Took the pass in the neutral one, entered the one pretty much on a 1 on 3 – veers left and powers round the high defender, beats the second defender wide and pretty much on the goal line goals backhand/forehand and shelfs it short-side.
Goal of the year for the Condors.
Lavoie wins an open ice battle and shows a VERY quick first step that I haven’t noticed before – it allows him to seperate and he proceeds to drive hard towards the net but he’s in too low on the goal line and is stuff – the rebound is sitting there for Bourgault. He can’t cash but, damn, great play by Lavoie and solid recognition of where to go by Bourgault.
Just a beautiful PP goal – Hamblin circles high, drops it to Kesselring who is skating towards the far side board (right on the blue line), Kesselring goes across the flow to Tulio who rips it home from the Ovie spot.
1-1
think the oilers are a team needing a tune-up than an overhaul
EK, or PK are overhauls
stay straight to your goal, load up 2-3 solid vets that shore up and/or balance holes, and hope CM, LD, RNK, ZH, EK score enough that the holes below have been reinforced
tbh, this year may not be ours (it may be) but next year is far more beneficial for the oilers to put their balls on the table
people like to reference avs or boston etc. loading up going into playoffs
well both teams were in contention for presidents; the oilers are not
playing big at the roulette wheel isnt wise when you have K-10 suited at the poker table
selling the future to load now; is betting against McD and Drai than betting on them is my point
Disagree, our draft picks will become players 3 to 5 years down the road. A Chychrun or Karlsson for example improves the team immediately and for the next few years.
“our” draft picks sold or not; or into prospects next year. you do not know the market, or team performance next year to give objective truth to their value
the objective state right now is; oilers are struggling to remain in chase for top of pacific, the weakest division in the league.
Until they have a dominant position within our division, would I sell the future
its not about “3-5 years” (spits); its that value that 3-5 year asset value exists next year
We have the second best points percentage in the league since the new year.
We have a good team. What’s the point of getting another Kulak if he’s no better than the Kulak we already have? If the goal is to make the team better, don’t we have to get a player better than what we have right now?
i mean having another kulak would make the team better
theres holes in the team that can be filled without breaking the bank and hamstringing the team for the next two years
they are wiser moves
Avalanche score 19 seconds into first. MacKinnon… Wow
Is that you, HH?
And then 3 more.
4-1 at the end of the first,
who cares. oilers do that every game.
Every game ?
Are you sure?
Please regale us all with some juicy trade rumours…
Anyone else find it funny that the guy who allegedly worked in media got a 1 week time out for sharing fake content from a fake account?
My apologies, merely wanted to point out a quick strike goal against the Jets in an important game standings wise.
I had no intention of summoning the troll as it had been a quiet and enjoyable week on the blog.
Kind regards
The Jets will do there annual choke job.
It’s like saying ‘Candyman’ three times in your bathroom mirror, only the end result is worse with HH.
Gold Jerry, Gold!
Savage comment. Ouch. I’d give you +50 if I could.
I like the idea of adding Nico Sturm. He is 57% on the dot, with good size at 6’3. A nice bottom 6 centre, with some skill and skating ability. As a bonus, he comes with a cheap contract.
agreed
the trauma of missing playoffs has oilers fans wanting another gold piece when we need 2 bronze and 1 silver
The Oilers need gold…on D.
God, I was hoping you had gone forever. Guess it was only a week timeout.
You can’t keep a squid down forever. They will always come up to the surface to drag someone down.
I love this!
timing
Whats the skill?
Confirmed that Demers is out (along with Kemp) so lets go Mike!
On a positive, Savoie returns to the lineup tonight.
Does he join the trio of Lavoie, Tulio and Philp leading the Condors to the playoffs?
Oilers Season in a Season:
Started with a 7 goal clinic versus Seattle and ends away in Boston. Seattle, who were yet to be considered as a top young team punctuated with wily vets like Eberle and Larsson Oilers could use these players?
This reminds us of that Boston Bruin Taylor Hall soon returns to Edmonton along with his Bruins juggernaut NHL team. Another wily vet Oilers could take a look at.
Who’d have guessed when you have a Hart trophy winner playing 2nd string winger that its going to impact the team?
Was the beatdown of Pittsburgh a meaningful win in that it proves this team has been getting better and better particularly in the bottom of the order?
If Yes: press Thumbs Up
If No: press Thumbs Down
ps: Skinner letting in a 1st shot comedy goal was about as Oilers a thing as possible for any Oilers goalie. Oilers having two technically competent goalies to rely on is going to be huge in the playoffs.
pps: Pittsburgh’s 3X Cup champion team with over 15 seasons in the playoffs were given their last rites last night. The fans saw it, the team knew it, and the media has been all over it. If this doesn’t make Oilers a legitimate Dark Horse for the Finals then there is nothing else to say.
How about Schenn,and Gavrikov?
I think Schenn will be an Oiler. That’s different than saying this is what I want to happen.
His wife is pregnant and expecting (due March 3rd). Edmonton’s a short flight.
I think Holland used Desharnais to “test drive” what Schenn would do to the roster.
Holland likes vets.
Holland likes vets.
================
I think that is true for pretty much every GM & HC come playoff time, no?
Mostly, but Holland, in particular, usually only deals in (very) established talent. The Guide and Record Book type stuff.
When I say Holland likes vets, we’re usually talking about guys on the wrong side of 30. Look at the goalie options available last summer and Holland went with one of the older ones. Campbell’s already 31.
Holland doesn’t deal in emerging talent nor younger pros. That’s a mistake IMO. The one time he did, unfortunately it was AA, and now he’s even more gun shy.
Other GM’s like Sakic make trades for guys like Devon Toews, Ryan Graves, Burakovsky, or Seattle selecting Vince Dunn in the expansion draft over Tarasenko…
I know that is the narrative but imo it is more situational.
He inherited a core that was just coming into prime years that lacked both prospects & established players. If you look at average age for the team it is pretty balanced.
D. Ryan is the only player older than 31, isn’t he?
It’s a product of how the players were acquired—everyone except for Kulak was a free agent signing. Even Kulak himself was a rental that was extended.
Kulak and Ceci were probably the youngest players Holland acquired.
There’s a gap in how Holland procures players compared to other teams. That gap is called a hockey trade.
Foegele, Kostin.
and both of them were hockey trades.
Is Schenn playing or is he 8D because adding two d-men takes out Vinny and, well, Broberg or Bouchard and I’m not in favour of either of those two not playing.
The problem with adding these two is primarily the acquisition cost which would prevent acquiring better targets.
I think someone will pay more for Schenn than Holland. He won’t actually be a ‘cheap’ add IMO.
I think Gavrikov is a real possibility if the price comes down enough, though I also think he might be able to move the needle.
Dhaliwal saying if the Canucks can’t get a second round pick, they will likely just keep him.
Makes sense.
Someone will pay a 2nd though. I don’t think it will be Holland.
Holland on the Bob McCown Podcast yesterday. Its longer than his local media spots so I will go with concepts as opposed to quotes (which would just take too much time during the day):
– Hope is I will be able to do something to help the team out a bit.
– Large majority of deals happen right on deadline day.
– Almost never/rarely does a trade happen with one call. Generally many conversations and many teams are interested in a single player.
– Ya, getting a player earlier with more games would probably be more advantageous. Reality is deadlines drive people to make decisions and there are a group of teams that haven’t decided yet if they are buying or selling and a few more games will determine their decision. Takes two to make a deal.
– How to determine if a buyer/seller? In January almost all teams have organizational. meetings preparing for up coming deadline. Process starts at that point in time. Standings dictate. We decide what we need if we are going to buy.
– Yes, there is a list with players. People are still out scouting because we want more info but, yes, there are lists and rankings and things we want to accomplish.
– Yes, first step is to identify what we need by position. Scoring or back end or a third lien center or help on the PK, etc., etc. Then you go through the other 31 teams. You look at the top team but its likely. quick conversation because they aren’t looking to get rid of players. I make calls and gather information and information about what MIGHT happen with opposition players in the future. I ensure I have all the information necessary
– I talk to my analytic people who do reports on opposition players.
– 73-67 is 1st to 8th in West. Anyone in the playoffs in the west can make SCF. Rental? Depends where you are in your cycle. We’ve had lots of stepping stones to, hopefully, winning the Stanley Cup. Our cycle: Hope to compete for the Stanley Cup.
– Next piece is the salary cap and we are in LTIR (can’t accrue space so dollar in and dollar out. Going to try and be creative but to do anything of significance have to move money out. I’m exploring all options.
– Blowing the leads recently don’t change plans: “Its a league of blown leagues”. 2-0, 3-0 is not what it was 20 years ago.
– Talk to the coach every day.
– Yes, will be more 3-team and salary retained deals.
– Looks like the races in the west will come right down to the last few games.
– Lots of teams still in it but some sellers may be selling 3, 4, 5 players so there may be “less sellers” because races are close but more players available than sellers.
– Usually around 20-25 players get moved so about 1.5 players added per playoff team.
– Asked about Karlsson: Can’t talk about specific players. Have obligation to talk to everyone leading up to the trade deadline about all players. This is the rumour mill season. Media needs to fill space. Sometimes the media is on to something and sometimes the rumours are related to one conversation in passing and it takes on a life of its own in the media. Some rumours there are no credibility to.
– Got to keep the puck out of your net. We are 8th in 5 on 5 scoring and tops in goals. We have lots of scoring. We have 4 of the top 15. More people are pitching in. It gets harder and harder as the playoffs go on. IF you have weaknesses, other teams will eventually expose. We are scoring goals (without counting Evander Kane). We are plus 14 with Connor and Leon not on the ice. More contributions from bottom of roster than in the past. That’s your offence. Probably given up too many goals though. Were doing great from Christmas until last week then had a tough week giving up goals.
– Kane: Shut him down for a couple of weeks and will need to get him up and running.
– Do you need a defencemn more than a depot forward? Ya, I guess I could say yes but its not that easy – there is no hockey store to just go get that guy.
– When pressed on if there is urgency due to Leon having two year left – Deflected and talked about no guarantees. There are hot goalies and injuries. “I would like to do something to make our team a bit better a bit deeper.”. Got to stick to the plan. I’d like to think the experiences we had last year, being down 3-2 and coming back, the Calgary series and the Colorado series. Those are experiences that should help. Being in the playoffs multiple times to the players understand, and everyone understands, what needs to be done to win the Stanley Cup.
– Agreed that some players will perform better in the playoffs. Its a fresh opportunity for players that may have had a tough year or that get an elevated role due to injury, etc.
Thanks for the info …
Do you use transcription software or just type that all out yourself?
Hat tip if you type that yourself!
He had a first year associate do it.
They’ve all quietly quit.
Type it myself.
thanks buddy
Thanks man.
Bruce McCurdy spoke about the need for a defensively conscious line that can settle things at the beginning and end of periods and saw off top or second line competition from our opponents.
Given that, I am intrigued by adding Adam Henrique (50% retained through next year) for Foegele and a 3rd or 4th round pick. Play Henrique between Puljajarvi and Janmark. I think that would be a wise move before the playoffs and in line with Holland’s modus operandi
PS – I know he is currently injured, but should be back before the playoffs start. Also, this would still leave you ammunition for another move at the deadline
I agree he’d be a nice add. I think he’ll be more expensive than that though, if he will in fact be healthy by playoff time.
Gorddammit, gonna miss the game tomorrow and will have to watch on delay. That’s three frigging games in a row. Sorry, just found out and I’m a little grumpy.
Edit: Is it wrong to sit there with earbuds in and only pretend to be listening to your 80 yr old parents? I feel like there should be something in the CBA covering this.
Better give your parents undivided attention otherwise you might miss the part about full Power of attorney going to some deadbeat brother or a crazy sister.
You don’t want to end up like me
Are you the crazy sister or the deadbeat brother?
Lol
Both, it’s a strange new world
JP now up to 1.2 EV points/60. A sustained run coupled with some better luck (PDO still in the toilet at 970) could end with him having a fine season for a bottom six player.
One thing that has stuck out to me in recent games is the skating ability. Two games ago, he had a terrific sequence where he back checked at full speed to be the first forward back. The puck turned up ice and he turned quickly and again went full throttle. The pass hopped over his stick, but that was elite level skating.
I am still of the opinion that the Oilers should not only hang on to him, but attempt to resign him at a low cost. While he is criticized for his lack of finishing ability, JP’s shooting percentage is 6% this year. Excluding his rookie year, that’s well below his other seasons.
I see this player’s base as a very good third line liner. I do believe he will end up in the top six as a defensive conscience for Kane and Drai.
I hope other teams are noticing too.
(and I agree with everything you’re saying, I just don’t think he’s going to sign a lower AAV deal to remain an Oiler, and someone has to go for the team to add anything ahead of the deadline)
I have more time for JP than Yamo in terms of future role with the team. JP has more versatility given his physical frame. Wish he had cashed the tip in opportunity last game – would have done a lot for his growing confidence.
Why they have not tried him on PK is beyond me.Compared to Yamo he is bigger,stronger,longer wingspan,and less chance of being injured.Yet everyone wants to trade him,and keep Yamo.What would Yamo bring in a trade?
https://twitter.com/mathewjdp/status/1629207529283547136?s=20
Interesting thread on twitter. Oilers have been quite good defensively in 2023, amongst the league best. Now if the goaltending would just follow suit. 🙂
Mathew Panchyshyn
@mathewjdp
·
30m
Edm since Dec 31st has played considerably better defensively 5v5. Their GA/60 is 2.37 which ranks them 9th but all teams above them are getting better to much better goaltending. Still, here is where Edm ranks compared to the other top teams and the league.
Edm ranks 2nd in xGA only trailing Carolina. They allow 0.37 fewer goals per 60 than the league avg. Over 82 games that’s 30 fewer goals allowed than avg.
Mathew Panchyshyn
@mathewjdp
·
25m
Edm against is 2nd. The difference between the top teams here vs the rest is considerable. Edm allows 5.3 less scoring chances per game than the avg team. https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f440.svg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpwdIftWcAEHZf-?format=jpg&name=small
Edm leads the league with the fewest high-danger chances against. They are the best at preventing opponents from outside the high-danger area.
I don’t know if Demers is going to play tonight but he left last game injured and didn’t return and Phil Kemp is suspended for the instigator in the last 5 minutes.
Opportunity for Michel Kesselring to show his stuff with increased minutes and role and the clear top guy on the right side.
What a truly great writing team…Mick and Keith…Linda Ronstadt did a very cool version of “tumbling dice”…good old waddy wachtel on guitar…I digress
To quote Rishaug from his pod this morning:
I think Ken Holland will run this close to the deadline and then grab his perception of the best deal. I do believe at this point, Jacob Chychrun is as much in the conversation truly, as a real potential there. I believe its moreso now than at any point along the way. I think there is a willingness to consider this as they move towards the deadline if the prices come down a little. I think the Oilers are still very much considering it, very much in on it, and curious to see what will happen with the prices. I don’t get the sense that Chychrun is a no-go in Edmonton. I don’t get that sense. I think they are waiting on it and I do think there is interest there stil.
I wonder if there’s a way to somehow acuire Owen Tippett in a hockey trade. Cost-effective RW scorer…not sure Philly would be interested in letting him go.
If the Oilers are at all serious about adding Karlsson, they’ll also need to find low cost replacements for some of the current overpriced players (JP, Yamamoto, Foegele).
These types of value contracts give the cap flexibility required to land a big fish long-term.
Desharnais and Ceci did not skate due to maintenance this morning. Campbell had the starter’s goal.
So let’s say the big fish on D don’t come to Edmonton….
So they bolster already the league’s best offence with Kane…
And win the cup in an un-conventional way, scoring 5-6 goals most nights.
Doesn’t that just make the league just way funner for the next decade, as most teams attempt to follow the “Oilers template” going forward?
🙂
Most fun: they do land a big fish (Karlsson) and are scoring 6-7 goals a night.
League won’t allow that to be the ad antage it should be. They won’t get near the PPs they deserve in the playoffs and their PK is average at best so you’re adding to an aspect where the league won’t allow them to have much more of an advantage than they already do. League mandate is to level the field – close games.
Need to prevent more goals. Unfortunately the obvious need there is in G and they are stuck with status quo there. Next best thing is to upgrade the D and or PK
Kapanen on waivers today.
I personally thought he was pretty poor last night.
He’s been pretty poor for a pretty long time now. I always thought he’d turn into something more.
There is the odd exception but I think that most agree that Stuart Skinner is the current #1 goalie and it should be that way going forward (subject to individual heater).
Win/Loss record notwithstanding, there isn’t really an objective way to argue that Campbell hasn’t been materially outplayed by Skinner (and I think, again with the odd exception, all agree that win/loss record is simply not a good way to evaluate goalie play).
Here is an article by Oil In Goal (a great twitter follow) on quantifying Skinner vs. Campbell and their contributions to wins/losses/etc. It matched up with the eye test (at least my eye test) and is telling:
https://oilingoal.substack.com/p/quantifying-the-impact-of-goaltending?sd=pf
I didn’t think Skinner was great last night but he was fairly solid, in my opinon, and deserves to be the main guy right now.
With that said, after Skinner starting two in a row, I go with Campbell on Saturday against the Jackets with the Bruins and Leafs coming up after.
Boom: I agree:
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
42m
Looks as though Campbell draws the start tomorrow as the Oilers try to gain a split of the season series w/Columbus at 10:30 am MT on @Sportsnet … @GenePrincipe & @LouDeBrusk will be alongside.
This isn’t my idea, but I can’t remember where I heard it and can’t credit it. It makes a lot of sense to me though:
You go with Skinner to start the playoffs, not only on merit, but because it’s a lot easier to switch from the kid to the veteran rather than the other way around if things go badly. You can chalk up a bad games 1 & 2 to the kid wasn’t ready and go to the ‘steady hand’. If your veteran goalie has a bad game 1 & 2 and you need a win, suddenly you’re throwing the kid into the fire and nerves are through the roof.
i like that thinking.
Makes me wonder if Mike Smith is healed up yet
It is a different question to ask who does anyone outside of the Edmonton Oilers organization believe is or should be the number one, and who does Jay Woodcroft’s view as his number one goalie. The answer to the first question is a nice fan poll, whereas the answer to question 2 is what really matters.
It doesn’t seem to me that if Woody were to answer that question truthfully, he would concede that Skinner is his clear number 1 going forward. Chances are both will get a very similar number of starts going forward, unless one or the other is the main problem (in Woody’s view) for a string of losses though Skinner may have a slight edge here given, Campbells most recent start.
There’s no question Skinner has been better at stopping pucks to this point in the season (the Skinner > Campbell part of the season being Oct/Nov/Dec).
Campbell also has a significant track record of being a quality NHL goaltender.
I, personally, would view them as a fully equal tandem going forward, and play them as such. A decision on the playoff starter can be made before playoff game 1 after you’ve collected more information.
Since Jan. 1st, Skinner and Campbell have essentially matching .901/.900 SV%. The puzzling gap in team play with Skinner vs. Campbell in net has also persisted, leaving a huge gap in their records (3-2-3 vs. 9-1-3) even though they have performed ‘the same’.
In any case, I would definitely not anoint either guys as the starter right now.
Friedman on ON believes NYR and CHI are seriously working on finding a way to get Kane there.
Also pretty sure the Oilers are out on Kane. Thinks the Oilers have moved on from the trophy players and are now loking to see where they can find the best value move.
Friedman: don’t count Washington or St. Louis out of the Chychrun sweepstakes
We broke the Penguins so badly that they’ve placed Kapenen on waivers. -2 last night, 7-13-20 in 43 games this year. Signed for another year at $3.2 mill.
This might be a good indicator of what would happen with JP were we to waive him.
I think its more equatable to Foegele being waived.
Kapanen has another year, Jesse does not – its a big factor I would think and I think Kapanen slides through whereas Jesse would/could be claimed.
But didn’t he score 20 Goals like Yamamoto. You can only use the 20 Goal theatrics for so long.
I’m thinking 20 goals once 5 years ago isn’t quite the same as 20 goals last season.
Tomayto=Tomahto
I keep mulling over the asking prices for Gavrikov and Chychrun being so high and if they’ll come down.
Which would be worse, no major deadline acquisitions or overpaying for a player that doesn’t move the needle enough?
In the end, I’d prefer some depth moves that won’t cost the moon, as unpopular as that may be with the majority of the fan base.
My preferred option is pay the high price to aim for a player you know if going to move the needle. YMMV, but I consider Chychrun in that category and I fear Gavrikov might be of the “doesn’t move the needle” variety. I think we all agree Karlsson gets the needle jumpin’, even if we don’t all agree the price is worth it.
I’m going to hard pass on trading even 3rd and 4th round picks for the Kulikov, Green and Brassard type of moves from years past. Let’s target guys who push our existing players down the depth chart or just stick with what we’ve got. I’d rather keep JP if his cap hit is just going to get spread around 2 depth players and not be used to land bigger fish.
I think Holland would still look at a depth piece in a trade as a way to ensure he has decent injury cover for the stretch drive and into the playoffs. Particularly if he decides he needs to move Jesse’s salary or similar so he can run 23 on the roster down the stretch.
The acquired players either have to fit above current players on the 20 man roster, which could push current players down to those depth positions or above the replacement level players he has now. If he adds a player or two that will get the call so that Brad Malone doesn’t have to play half a dozen games down the stretch or 2 in the playoffs, the team will be better off.
An excellent depth move would be Domi.Also able to play top six,and feisty like his dad.
Depending on the price Domi would fit in perfectly in our top 6-9.
If the Wild keep winning Billy Guerin needs to be considered for G.M award. Remember Billy is playing with almost 13 million less dollars than his fellow Brethren. I would not want to face them in the 1st round with Fluery being the wild card. I wanted Fleury a few years back I think Holland inquired. When I was in Vegas the Knights have a great and fun fanbase more than half the Jerseys are Fleury’s lots of Reeves jerseys as well. Most of the ground zero fanbase was pissed when they got rid of Fleury and kept drama queen Lehner.
I’d go with “Snake Farmer” for Lehner. It has more bite.
I’ll see myself out.
Why is Lehner a ‘drama queen’?
I don’t know what is going to happen with Jesse Puljujarvi but I do hope that they can somehow keep him for the stretch run and the playoffs.’
We are seeing over the last 4-5 games that this player can, and does, positively affect the roster. He was very good last night. This player has a positive impact when he’s in the middle/bottom six and is just playing his game. He helps get the puck moving in the right direction, he’s big/fast/strong and is tough to play against, he’s generally on the right side of the puck in all zones, etc. He continues to struggle to finish but he’s impacting the game offensively on the forecheck and he’s starting to rack up some apples.
I totally understand his $3MM cap hit and that he very well may go, and may need to go, in order to open up the cap space to upgrade the roster. At the same time, removing Jesse from the roster simply makes the team a bit worse and a bit “less deep”. I get that it may have to happen but he’s helping the team now and its will suck to lose that at this time..
Frankly, for me, he’s more valuable int he lineup these days than Yamamoto. Kailer was fine last night but Jesse was more impactful. I know Kailer is on the PK, and that is important and I know he’s still getting back up to speed and “top of his game Yamamoto” is a good player. I would posit that “top of his game Puljujarvi” is a better player.
I know they won’t move Kailer – he’s valued more than Jesse by the coaches and Drai likes playing with him but, damn.
I know the general premise is the he’s gone next season, and that is likely the case, as they can’t commit to the $3MM that is his QO.
Lets not forget there is the premise of club elected arbitration for RFA which could lead an award of 85% of this year’s salary. That’ $2.55MM – still probably too high but if he continues this type of game through the stretch and the playoffs maybe he is worth that.
I don’t see any of that happening but is a chance.
In any event – I’m happy to see him play well and contribute consistently for the past bit.
I don’t disagree with any of this and admit I have been pretty happy with Pujo’s game in 2023. Like I said yesterday pre-game, he looks like a player ready to bust out.
His A-game ceiling is higher than Kailer’s, I don’t think there’s any question about that. I think the questions is, “how often are either player approaching that celing?” Yams gets a bit of a pass this year due to injury problems (unless they themselves become chronic) and just no chance to build any sort of rhythm to his season, but I think there’s no question he is more consistently good and all indications are the future will hold the same (acknowledging that the future can be quite mercurial).
And the end of the day I’m not sure either are the answer or aren’t the answer. They’re both reasonably useful players and really it is their cap hit per production that is the issue
Amen.
And yet the pundits still want to keep Yamo,and get rid of Pulu!
Since the NHL tie breaker is regulation wins here is where it stands at the moment.
Edmonton 30
Winnipeg 27
Seattle 27
Vegas 26
Dallas 26
Kings 23
Washington sells Orlov.
I wonder if Jensen is also available.
Cheap contract. Decent player.
Who does he replace on the right side?
Oiler Alert
@OilerAlert
“I believe Jakob Chychrun is as much in the conversation now… than at any point along the way. If the prices start to come down a little bit, I think the #Oilers are still very much considering it, very much in on it.”
@TSNRyanRishaug
on Got Yer Back.
time stamped to the conversation:
https://youtu.be/VVvSZY3P87c?t=1994
Rishaug says a whole lot of nothing, IMO.
Just yesterday DNB had some pretty strong words of disinterest from the Oilers’ side.
“little appetite on the Oilers’ part to add him”
“Lukewarm at best on the player”
“They loathe the asking price from the Coyotes”
https://theathletic.com/4244203/2023/02/23/nhl-trade-deadline-kane-karlsson-oilers/
And how does he know that isn’t “negotiation?”
I’m not saying he’s wrong. but I don’t see anything there that necessarily disagrees with Shauger… in fact, on price being a sticking point they’re in full agreement.
Yeah (like Munny), I was going to say that I’d guess asking price is the biggest of those issues.
Chychrun needs to be a helluva defenseman (and healthy) to justify the asking price. Basically a 1st (equivalent) for each year of his contract.
It doesn’t seem like any of media really know what’s going on.
At this point, I hope this is more of a public negotiation tactic with Grier to get the acquisition cost down on Karlsson. Although, as much as I’d like it to happen, I don’t think it does.
A Karlsson trade is hard to pull off for sure.
I guess the media can be forgiven for not knowing what’s going on since Holland seems to have all the irons in the fire currently.
Oiler Alert
@OilerAlert
“Edmonton is a spot that intrigues Patrick Kane. I believe the #Oilers priority is still on the blueline, but if they don’t land a big fish on the blueline, they could bolster themselves up front.”
@TSNRyanRishaug
Honestly, it seems like Kane only wants to go to the Rangers. Let them have him.
I don’t want some temperamental player half-assing his way on his second choice team because he didn’t get what he wanted.
He wouldn’t be coming to Edmonton if he didn’t want to. He’d have to waive for the trade to happen. So the guy was a little disappointed in the moment that he probably wasn’t going to get his first choice. So what? Doesn’t mean he wouldn’t bust his ass for the the Oilers to help them try to win a Stanley Cup. He would still get to go wherever he wants in July, and he would improve his options by playing well for the Oilers more so than running out the string in Chicago.
Sure sounds like the Rangers are his first choice (and you can see why).
I’ll have no ill will if he has the Edmonton #2 on his list and he ends up an Oiler after things fall through with the Rangers.
I wouldn’t call it ill will.
Team building is a lot more than simply acquiring talent. It’s about team culture, personalities, and a willingness to play for your teammates.
From what I’ve seen and read, I think it’s obvious that Kane only wants one destination. It’s not here.
As if
As if what?
I understand the premise of this and don’t disregard it completely but I don’t think he’d be half-assing it – could be wrong but I don’t see it.
On the same premise, we know that Gavrikov has zero interest of being in Canada so I would actually have concern in that regard.
Do you know where that intel is from?
It wouldn’t be a shock or anything, but I haven’t heard that so wondering the source and certainly of it being true.
A few of the top insiders have confirmed that he will not sign an extension with a Canadian team. I can’t remember exactly who but it was along the lines of Friedman, Seravelli, etc. – that tier if insider.
OK, hadn’t heard that conclusively. Thanks.
Not sure if it is conclusive but it has been widely speculated. What I read – which is also just speculation – was that he had a 7 team no trade clause and that is generally considered the ‘no Canadian team’ clause.
Isn’t that McCabe? Gavrikov doesn’t have trade protection.
I’d heard somewhere that Gavrikov won’t talk extension with ANYONE at this point, but nothing I recall about Canada specifically (I also only got on twitter to follow this stuff properly a week ago, so I’m not particularly plugged in).
Whoops, sorry about that.
No worries, nice to have you stopping by again.
Thanks for that. I’m still busier than I like so I am not as on top of things as I should be but the TD is always one of the fun times of the year so I have been trying to catch up.
That’s McCabe, not Gavrikov.
McCabe has a 7-team NTC with 6 Canadian teams on it. From accounts he’s amenable to restructuring it but not to include Edmonton.
Gavrikov has no trade protection so he’d have no choice but to come to Edmonton but the intel is that he wouldn’t re-sign in Canada (and I presume that he wouldn’t be thrilled having to come in the first place).
Half-assing is maybe a bit strong.
It’s clear that he has his heart somewhere else. If that’s the case, I’ve seen the story before.
If he begrudgingly accepts a trade to the Oilers after wishing and hoping to go to the Rangers, I don’t think it turns out how everyone thinks it will.
If he doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, I don’t want him. Plain and simple.
He has a full no trade clause and can (and may) choose to stay in Chicago. He will not become an Oiler unless he wants to be one.
By reports (Rishaug) he does have some interest in the Oilers, even if they aren’t his first choice. Regardless, there simply isn’t a scenario where he’ll become an Oiler against his wishes.
I understant that.
But there’s a difference between accepting a trade to the Oilers (because it’s better than no shot at the cup) and actually wanting to be on the team.
I would honestely withdraw any expression of interest at this point. Even with all that skill, I wouldn’t want a disgruntled Patrick Kane on the team. And I think that’s what you’d get.
He wants to be a Ranger, without question. We’re the girl he takes home after striking out with his crush, and wakes up to regret it.
The list of impact rentals for this deadline wasn’t long. Most of the potential impact rentals are already gone (Bo Horvat, ROR, Tarasenko, Orlov, Toews). Kane remains, but there’s an asterisk on his name because he will chose his destination. There’s still Timo Meier, but he’s headed to Carolina or New Jersey.
For rentals, we’re left with the overpriced pile (Gavrikov, Edmundson), bottom roster guys (Luke Schenn, Bjugstad), underrated but less impactful (Gost,Jensen), speculative with warts (Domi, Boesser, Jeannot).
We live in interesting times. The masses want Karlsson or Chychrun, but it’s far more likely we see names like Gavrikov and Schenn.
Why do you think Gavrikov/Schenn are more likely than Chychrun? Based on cost?
Holland prefers rentals to hockey trades. The cap issues further make a trade for a rental more probable since things like retention of salary are easier with rentals.
While Chychrun’s cap hit seems reasonable, we’re already at the cap with less than a full 23 man roster.
I love that Boston just pivoted and got better package for similar price as the reported ask for garikov
Find it funny the ask for Meier is supposedly 3 piece – 1 piece 1st round pick
Chychrun 2 1st plus a prospect.
It’s no wonder he’s still in Arizona.
Timo should be clearly highest cost asset to acquire.
I get that Orlov is a clear rental so likely not in the same realm as a Chychrun deal, however I’m inclined to hope that the Orlov deal might impact the ask from Arizona a little.
Maybe there’s a deal there with a prospect, a first, and maybe a.n.other draft pick that would get it done. I like the idea of Chychrun – and heck, if Broberg does blow by him in a year then we can just move Chychrun in a similar deal that we get him for*
*unless he’s in fact crippled by injury of course.
Still, if we’re going to be handing out firsts I like the idea of Chychrun more than Gavrikov coming our way.
I like it if it’s like:
2023 1st
2024 2nd
Kulak
Niemo
Stagger picks however best suits coyotes (only so many guys you want to develop and contract every year imagine punting some glut downfield getting close to preferred
For arizona:
That’s 1st, prospect, and 2nd not another first. And they could use servicable defender under contract in kulak so he’s not nothing.
for edmonton:
At worst, you easily are getting a 2nd round pick back if you decide to deal him before contract ends.
It just sounds like they are aiming way higher than even that so glad Holland isn’t every other GM we’ve had forever and just impulsively horseblimded on target begging to get fleeced.
Well, one is signed 2-more years at $4.6MM while the other could force a 1-year $10MM contract walking him to UFA status….
Those two would be an improvement to the current roster.
https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1629179135003172864?s=20
All couched as more of a gut feeling, but Rishaug believes the Oilers are “very much still in” on Chychrun and Holland is waiting until the deadline to see if the price goes down.
I’m super intrigued by guerin steering deals in eastern conference.
Couple hundred grand grab a couple scratch ticket level lottery tickets and keep expedite players getting sent to East.
Honestly not worst plan if not yet at point you believe worth spending assets to augment.
Guerin is proving that he has a real pair of brass balls. Very out-of-the box thinking and yet his team remains competitive.
If I’m not mistaken, the Oilers are 11-1-5 in their last 17 games.
Decent.
I’m really hoping someone close to Holland has a subscription to athletic and shows him dom’s buyer beware deadline list.
I honestly fear paying assets for Joel Edmonson is remotely possible.
Better yet….hire LT as a consultant..he knows a thing or two about hockey 🙂
From all accounts (that I’ve heard/read), Edmundson’s back issue has made him a non-starter – thank goodness.