Jay Woodcroft is an excellent coach and he has some reinforcements for his second playoff run. GM Ken Holland appears to be done—although a scoring right-winger is an area that remains unaddressed—and now we have a chance to examine what this team will look like opening night playoffs 2022-23.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers spring signing season preview
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto and the balance between value contract and injury risk
- DNB: Why Mattias Ekholm is a big addition for an Oilers team that needs to win now
- DNB: Oilers trading Jesse Puljujarvi was an unavoidable and necessary solution
- Lowetide: Oilers’ mediocre February shows importance of protecting the puck
- DNB: Connor McDavid records his first career 50-goal season
- DNB and Lowetide: Evaluating your Oilers trades for Erik Karlsson, Jakob Chychrun, Mattias Ekholm and more
- Lowetide: Oilers signing Vincent Desharnais, James Hamblin proving innovative, effective one year later
- DNB: Inside Brad Holland’s scouting process
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of NHL trade deadline
- DNB: 15 Oilers targets ahead of the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: What’s going on with Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl?
- DNB: Oilers captain Connor McDavid surpasses 800 career points
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice of Philip Broberg at the 2019 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Oilers have an emerging prospect in Noah Philp
- DNB: The Ben Stelter Fund is a legacy his family, Connor McDavid and the Oilers will proudly carry
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers’ 7-11 alignment here to stay?
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ interest in trading for Sharks’ Erik Karlsson
- Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland NHL trade deadline Q&A
- Lowetide: How the Oilers finally found the key to five-on-five outscoring
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
- March actual result: 1-0-0, 2 points in one game
- February actual result: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 33-21-8, 74 points in 62 games
OILERS LINES AND PAIRINGS
I think the key question among the forwards surrounds Leon Draisaitl. He’s more effective with Connor McDavid. It’s a fact. Here are the 10 most common lines this season for Edmonton.
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman: 285 mins; 65 pct goals; 62 pct X-goals.
- Janmark-Nuge-Kostin: 139 mins; 60 pct goals; 44 pct X-goals.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: 125 mins; 60 pct goals; 64 pct X-goals.
- Foegele-McLeod-Puljujarvi: 92 mins; 25 pct goals; 60 pct X-goals.
- Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 86 mins; 75 pct goals; 39 pct X-goals.
- Janmark-Nuge-Yammamoto: 82 mins; 57 pct goals; 45 pct X-goals.
- Shore-Ryan-Kostin: 82 mins; 75 pct goals; 45 pct X-goals.
- Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi: 71 mins; 57 pct goals; 59 pct X-goals.
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman: 72 minds; 57 pct goals; 49 pct X-goals.
- Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi: 54 mins; 0-1 goals; 55 pct X-goals.
I think the best route will be Nuge-McDavid-Hyman; Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto; Foegele-McLeod-Kostin and Janmark-Bjugstadt-Ryan. That means Devin Shore is the extra man, and I don’t think they can recall Dylan Holloway during the regular season due to cap pressures. If Draisaitl struggles, then move Nuge to 2C and see if that works. I wonder if Bjugstadt gets any time with the top centers.
Defense should be Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci; Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard; Brett Kulak with either Vincent Desharnais or Philip Broberg. Stuart Skinner gets the starts.
The trade for Nick Bjugstadt sent away the Oilers top defense prospect (Philip Broberg has graduated) and the remaining names are either limited offensively or some distance from the NHL. Broberg graduated, Kesselring gone, that means my top defense prospect is Markus Niemelainen. He should have an NHL career (43 games so far) but is a third pairing option.
Nikita Yevseyev finished the KHL season 5-2-7 in 48 games with 20-13 even-strength goal share and averaging 10:59 per night. He is unsigned and given Edmonton’s history with Russian prospects, Yevseyev is something less than a lock in Edmonton despite his obvious talent. Vincent Desharnais is a prospect until 50 games but is a fully formed player and unlikely to spend huge minutes in the heart of the game. Like Niemelainen, seems to me Desharnais is destined for third pair duties as an NHL player.
Phil Kemp suddenly becomes an important player in the pipeline. More defensive than Kesselring, he does have ability and has played well in the AHL. Max Wanner and Luca Munzenberger could join him in Bakersfield next year.
I’m not down on the trade and it’s important not to overestimate Kesselring. Still, the Oilers have received less than 100 cents on the dollar in dealing several RHD over recent years. Ethan Bear, John Marino plus current Oilers Desharnais and Evan Bouchard represents an impressive group in an area most NHL teams are lacking. The depth chart among young RH defenseman in the organization goes Bouchard, Desharnais, Wanner, Kemp. I think Philip Broberg may play RD next season, leaving the left side to Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak.
Do I like the Bjugstadt trade? Yes. It could be a key move, ala David Desharnais, and it does address an area of need. Kesselring is a fine prospect and I do believe he will play in the NHL. I don’t see the problem in dealing Kesselring per se, it’s more what is left behind. It will be vital to add defense to the prospect pool this summer, specifically RH side. I believe the Ekholm trade will rank among Holland’s five best deals as Oilers general manager, less certain about this one.
RECALLS
I’m disappointed the Calgary Flames are fading, that always makes for less fun with the other Alberta team on the outside. It does mean the final eight teams should be decided with several weeks to go, and with the Holloway cap issue (Edmonton can’t send down Devin Shore and recall him if my math is right), it does allow us to think about possible recalls. Mike Kesselring would have been high on my list, but he’s gone. Who might get the call?
- G Calvin Pickard, both as insurance and possibly as an option should Jack Campbell continue to falter.
- D Markus Niemelainen, who has NHL experience and is suddenly very important.
- D Phil Kemp, who could get the recall that would have gone to Kesselring.
- D Jason Demers, who has foot speed issues but remains an intelligent veteran.
- R Raphael Lavoie, although he couldn’t replace Shore for cap reasons. Lavoie has earned a look.
- RC Noah Philp, who has skills (faceoffs, handedness) that make him unique.
- LC James Hamblin, surely an option now.
- R Justin Bailey, a dynamic AHL winger.
- L Tyler Benson, he has NHL experience.
- R Seth Griffith, remains very skilled.
- LC Brad Malone, brings rugged play.
- R Tyler Tullio, who has had a strong first season in the AHL.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
Four hours of trade deadline, beginning at 10 this morning. Dustin Nielson and Jason Gregor guest star, we’ll hear from Ryan Rishaug, Jason Strudwick and Sam Pollock. 10-1260 text, @lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
So Kesselring is now an NHL player (if you consider ARZ an NHL team). Good for him as he was not going to get a sniff of time in the next year with Bouch, Bro and Seaweed ahead of him. Pretty much impossible to work in a 4th young guy. Wish him well and hope he has a long NHL career while Bjugstad scores a SCF winner.
One of the best chances he could ever have for the young feller. Way less pressure to get his ducks in a row
Or Dogs I suppose
Crappy OOTS tonight. Krak won too, against the Jackets. Three game win streak now. But they get the Avs next. Need that to be a two point game, preferably in Colorado’s favour.
VGK on the other hands gets the Habs, who lost to the Ducks tonight.
All the Oil need to do is keep winning. First thing is tomorrow night. Do they take the Jets lightly because they just laid a beating on them or do they show up to play a tough, proud team in their own barn. Are they happy with settling for a split? Take a day off…
I know Connor won’t be. I think the Oil are lit now and ready to steamroll over the rest of the schedule, like we’ve seen them do in the past.
In some ways, getting a bit loose in the 3rd and allowing a couple of goals due to lazy play might help the Oilers tonight – at least that’s what my mind tells me.
Yes I think you’re right. A reminder that pretty much any team given time and clean looks will make you pay quick
Devils and the Knee go into overtime
No goals in OT. Devils owned the stanza but couldn’t put it away.
After the first three shooters… no goals.
somebody named Schmid in net for the Devils
Theodore puts it away, VGK 4th shooter.
Vegas stole that extra point despite having the lead in the 3rd. Game was all Devils. They’re still a young team. Damn good one, but young.
That was a soft goal against by Schmid. Too bad. Apparently, Adin Hill played out of his mind.
Not the greatest, no. But probably should’ve been a penalty shot too at the end of OT. Devs needed to cash one of those glorious chances.
I saw that breakaway by Bratt at the end. The replay did seem to show the hook on the hands and it should’ve been a penalty shot with about one second remaining in regular time. I can’t believe Bratt even got that far, considering the face off was so far away with just about 5 seconds left. A penalty shot in those circumstances would’ve been so exciting.
The Knights tried a push face-off to send the puck towards the Devils net, missed the puck so it was just sitting there and the C scooped it up and Bratt broke with him. One pass up and over the blue line and the clock is going 3, 2, 1…
er hmm.
https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/04/02/ryans-hope/
63pg, 30-47-77
Forty goals and 100 points for Nuge? Maybe? Outside chance?
Prove for once and for all he’s more than just a fighter
Oilers now 6th in the NHL in goal differential.
(passed TBL and NYR from the east sometime recently, not sure exactly when)
3-2 Vegas. Vegas just missed a penalty shot. 7 to play now, getting outshot 36-25
and the Devs score as i hit enter
Well that was fun. Bring on tomorrow😊
Everyone is going to be reasonable and not catastrphize 7 minutes of lackadaisical play in garbage time, right?
Nah. They let off the gas in garbage time and gave up chances that they haven’t all game. Coaches will turn it into a teachable moment about a full 60 mins.
I expect to see the fruits of that coach talk tomorrow night.
Thoroughly enjoyed that beat down. Exactly what I was hoping for minus the lazy late goals. Definitely something to clean up.
You think the jests will be mad after this beat down and come out flying tomorrow?
I hope so cuz they pissed off our guys with that late crap.
Today they got the 50 minute beatdown. Tomorrow it’s a full 60 mins of pain with a few broken heads thrown in for good measure.
You poked the bear. Now you gotta pay the price.
The Jets got really salty about half way into the third period, and especially after Leon’s cheeky goal. I enjoyed every minute of it and am glad that none of our guys got hurt.
Man. When this team is playing, boy do they look good. The stayed with the Bs. They pumped the Leafs (despite those weird ridiculous calls) and they dominated the depleted Jets.
That’s a great 3 game stretch. Best I’ve seen in years. Reminds me of game 6 vs SJ and then taking the first 2 in Anh.
“A lotta balls for Shoresy”
Kailer on Shore going after Logan Stanley
Stanley is an unusually large human. Tall yes, but whomever he was in the box with looked like a homunculus in comparison
Janmark may have just played the quietest 14:46 I’ve ever seen.
And that’s not a bad thing.
Breakaway?
That was a pretty quiet breakaway, amirite?
This big Finn kid is gonna get a talking to tomorrow. I expect it early, too. Nurse already didn’t like him. Now he’s gonna do some reconstructive educating…
The Finn has a dental appointment with Nurse.
Quality game despite the late goals.
Really impressive would be doing it again tomorrow against an opponent you just beat.
That’s 3 quality games in a row against good teams. And they lit up a strong goaltender tonight too.
Yup. 4 I guess with Pittsburgh.
They looked a bit loose in their own zone in that one but the momentum was definitely building. Boy Ekholm is just a great calming presence for their side. Tough to teach that.
This is why strength of schedule is just such BS … we always say that the Oilers play down to the level of their competition … which is true … but so do other good teams. It’s how you perform against other good teams that matters.
Exactly.
They dominated the Penguins, IMO. Definitely been good for a few now, regardless.
That should be a suspension. Crosscheck to throat… wtf?!
Kostin will have to fight Nimealainen’s cousin tomorrow – not Nurse.
He should get a suspension. Ref let 2 majors go
Jesus, that’s a crosscheck to the throat ffs
Doc should’ve pounded him
Maenelainen cross checks Broberg in the throat.
Derek Ryan owns the defensive zone boards then fired a dart to Janmark for the breakaway. How do you take him out of the lineup?
Shore will be the odd man out
who Ryan or Janmark?
(joke but I would take janmark out)
and tomorrow its just Shore, its who for Kane next week
that one will be Broberg
Man, it’s a deep lineup when Kane returns. Keeps the Kostins and Janmarks motivated to stay at the top of their games, too.
Munny is right once Kane is back.
The 2nd forward to come out (after Shore, if they want to go 7D) might be Kostin.
you think?
you don’t need Bjug, ryan, and janmark for PK no?
so if Bjug is steady eddy PK one of the other two are expendable
unless of course broberg is taken out
‘Munny is right’ meant that that I think Shore and Broberg would be the first out.
My guess is Kostin is next up for a seat after that, I think before Ryan or Janmark.
Probably depend on the opponent but he would be one of the main options to sit
Yeah I agree Shore/Broberg will be the first to come out.
But Kostin seems to be a carrot/stick type. I don’t think he’d sit for an extended period like Shore has, but he might benefit from kindling the fire.
He’s also chaos everywhere, which is good and bad. It will probably depend on opponent, that’s fair for sure.
Yams lose his mouthguard there?
When not let yams take Hyman spot on pp??
The Jets are big mad. Tomorrow should be a battle.
I think its just as likely the coach rips them a new one for all the penalties and we see a more button down game tomorrow. Could go either way depending on the coach
that was sheer intimidation by Nurse on the Finnish lad of the indecipherable name
That Finnish Jet doesn’t want to tangle with Nurse. That wouldn’t go well for him.
Good call, ref.
Looked to me like Bouch hit where he was aiming. Thought he was gonna shoot him again! lol
This commercial break brought to you by Nick Ehlers writhing in pain on the bench.
My interest in the Oilers probably peaked around first few years of the Decade of Darkness. While it was painful watching them lose, the comfort was that we were accumulating young talent that was unrivaled in the league, and would eventually turn the corner. HOPE, then adding Nugent-Hopkins and then Yakupov, eventually, the team was going to be a juggernaut. Which was why it was so discouraging when they traded Hall. Hall was a first line player, not a superstar but at least a star, and trading him was an admission that the group, as a whole, was never going to be a top-end group of stars. So my interest cratered the most in the 2016-2017 season, when it looked like McDavid was leading the team into a new era. But I didn’t care. I had already been hurt because I felt like I had been lied to. I went through the pain of a rebuild to end in the franchise not being rebuilt.
This just goes to show it’s not as much about either committing or not committing to a rebuild, it’s about trying a lot and doing more good than bad on average. I think Holland has clearly made some mistakes, but he seems to be the only GM since the in-season acquisitions of Kevin Lowe in 2005-2006, to do more good than bad overall. This team has, in the four years of Holland’s tenure, made more smart decisions than bad ones. Try comparing this roster to the one Holland inherited in 2018-19. That roster had a lot of “oh right, he was an NHL player a few years ago, wasn’t he?” Yes, I could nitpick (could use more solid goaltending, RD could use some more experience), but this is a substantially better team than in any season since the early 90’s.
But can they do me a favour, and make me feel safe when they have a five goal lead partway through the third period? Geez. Better times, but I guess nothing is ever perfect.
The Lowe era that brought the HOPE line was terribly managed.
Let’s draft a bunch of 1st overall picks and throw them to the wolves.
Trade away any decent veteran players to make sure the team sewers to get more high draft picks.
In an alternate universe the $6 Million dollar players would have had to earn their spots in the lineup beating decent veterans while learning the NHL game.
would have saved them tons of money to not automatically have to pay them $6 Million when their rookie contracts expired, and give them some sheltering.
The most galling thing is that despite finishing so low every season and drafting relatively higher than almost everyone else, they consistently got bad value for where they drafted. Hall is reasonable value for the first overall pick, but Nugent-Hopkins, until over a decade after his draft never put up the numbers you would want from a piece you are building your franchise around, to say nothing of the coveted complete bust at first overall that was Yakupov. The lacked transitional players, but there was also a complete lack of key players from rounds 2-7 pushing for NHL employment. And this was after a soft rebuild where most of the players got dealt, and were all support pieces rather than centerpieces of rebuilds (Gagner, Cogliano, Gilbert, etc.). Now, right now, they only have nine players on the active roster than are Oilers draft picks by my count, but they’re generally either in feature roles or still have not fully emerged as what they are going to be at the NHL level. This is night and day.
Stu MacGregor was vastly over-rated by the fan base. His later round picks and overall draft record was awful.
They got 1 center (RNH)
3 wingers (hall, mp, yak)
No defenceman
No goalie
And smartest manned in roomed almosy every low 2nd rnd pick essentially
Had solid run of ragtag development system got barely any complimentary pieces.
Teachable seaweed moment that won’t cost anything
With a nickname like that, his logical D-partner should be Condors teammate Phil Kelp.
Or the new arrival, Clam Dineen
the lesson:
“yeah, don’t do that.”
Might get an EN goal now.
Have to be careful about letting lazy habits creep in here. Call a timeout and commit to hard play. Boys stopped playing
Alrighty. That’s enough muckin about. Flick the switch back on. Let’s put this to bed.
score effects..right? right?
Goddamn it. The Oilers have stopped playing since the 10:00 mark. Finish this game the proper way guys!
Alright guys shut this down. C’mon
do it for your goalie at least
Ok… time-out woody
Geeze skinner wont be in tommorow
“Oilers well on their way to a win tonight.”
Too soon, Jack. Too soon.
Damn. Good game for Vinny to remember to not be casual on the pk. Ever.
Seeweeds first big error; it’s a learning curve
I believe his first big error was the obvious slash to the back to put his team down 5 on 3 down a goal late, right?
Oh deharnais…
skinner actually got a healthy piece of that
An unfortunate giveaway by Desharnais leads to a quick goal by That Fucker Scheifele.
yikes on desharnais there
“let me backhand right into the slot right here”
Winnipeg is definitely top 5 team I enjoy seeing get stomped.
Four Oilers are +3 on the night…the three goal-scorers and Ekholm.
Never understood the mercy PP units. You have an opponent delivering a dangerous hit on your player, put on the best PP unit and make them pay again
Woody has some work to do with PP2
work = don’t play them
lol