Riders on the Storm

by Lowetide
Photo by Connor Mah

The Edmonton Oilers won a wild game against the San Jose Sharks at Rogers Place Monday night. It’s a game that will be remembered for the goals that didn’t count, the ones that did, and two blue who scored on great shots to tie and win it for the home team in overtime. My goodness, what an entertaining game.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • At home to: TOR, WPG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: WPG, BUF, BOS, TOR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: OTT, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, ARI, VGK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: ARI, VGK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • March expected result: 9-6-0, 18 points in 15 games
  • March actual result: 8-2-0, 16 points in 10 games
  • February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
  • January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 40-23-8, 88 points in 71 games

Edmonton is on pace to finish with 102 points, and now own a five-point edge over the Seattle Kraken (who have two games in hand). The Oilers are four points behind Vegas and the Kings, with both teams on the schedule in the days ahead. It’s going to be a blast watching these four teams decide the order of finish. Big win for Edmonton, who are 20-7-6 since January 1. That’s a great run.

GOALIE AND DEFENSE

Jack Campbell had a night of highs and lows, making big stops but also failing to make important stops. The first goal against involved a kevlar rebound that looked like Nolan Ryan fastball as it passed Evan Bouchard. The second goal was on the defensemen (Brett Kulak and Philip Broberg), both biting on the pass recipient and letting Steven Lorentz to skate in on goal unmolested. Campbell made the first stop, credit there, and credit too for Lorentz, who knocked in the rebound on a tough play. The first Karlsson goal was made easier when Cody Ceci abandoned the middle of the ice to support Nurse. That reminded me of the worst of the swarm. Not good. Fourth goal was a great shot and late checker (Janmark).

You’d like Campbell to stop two of those (especially the first one, that rebound was cherry) but three involved some imperfect defensive work so plenty to work on. Campbell winning is a positive for the team, he had to have been rusty. He didn’t look comfortable most of the night. He also let in a few disallowed goals, and on the night I would say the Oilers made a rueful decision in starting him. Campbell had a stronger third and overtime, suspect he has two starts left. Incredibly, he owns an 18-9-4 record in spite of the .882 SP.

Evan Bouchard led defensemen in overall minutes (26:01). He had an assist, two shots and two HDSC. How his shot in overtime (and the rebound shot) didn’t go in remains a mystery worthy of Agatha Christie. Mattias Ekholm scored twice, including the huge goal to tie it late on a Bobby Hull slapshot. No wonder goalies hated him. The Ekholm acquisition may go down as one of the greatest deadline deals in team history. Ekholm-Bouchard were 3-1 goals and 75 percent expected goals at five-on-five (15 minutes).

Darnell Nurse had some tough moments but saved the day with an outstanding breakaway goal that combined speed and a terrific release. Helluva goal. Cody Ceci had some wobble but also came up with a couple of good plays on the night (saved a goal and a sure loss in the third period). He remains the inconsistent member of the pairing, both players benefiting from the new top pair’s good work. In 15:06 at five-on-five, Nurse-Ceci went 0-1 goals and 62 percent expected goals.

Brett Kulak-Philip Broberg were 1-1 goals and 49 percent expected goals on the night, playing 11:16 together. Broberg took four hits, a couple to make a play, but he’ll need to protect himself better as time rolls along. Kulak played well and wasn’t noticeable (a good thing) beyond the roller derby play that preceded the Lorentz goal. It would have been his read to stay with the eventual goal scorer.

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid played half the game and was exceptional. He had a breakaway early in the third period, didn’t score. At that point I fel the Oilers were about to sacrifice the game to the hockey Gods, but his assist on the second Ekholm goal helped seize the day. Wonderful evening of hockey, even if the puck wouldn’t cooperate on that breakaway.

Leon Draisaitl was also productive on the night, often with 97. He damn near scored a couple of times on the power play, and his gorgeous passes could have netted double the assists on a night when things were humming. Draisaitl has had an uneven season even though his boxcars are 44-62-106 in 69 games. He is one of the very best Oilers I’ve ever seen.

Zach Hyman has scored 30 goals and had about half again disallowed this season. I thought last night’s call was weak, to be honest. Looked like a goal to me. Kailer Yamamoto had another good night, he has put together a productive run and is 8-3-11 in 21 games since January 1. He’s 10-10-20 in 47 now, that’s 17 goals and assists in 82 games. He’s having a Crisco season, it all comes back except one tablespoon. Had an assist on the winner.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins made wily plays all over, steathily intercepting passes so smoothly even a veteran observer might have missed them. Positioning is strong on this one. Had an assist on the winner, hit the post, was tacked by James Reimer at the one yard line on a fantastic open field tackle. Future Dad is on pace for 99 points.

Evander Kane was not effective in the game, and Woodcroft dropped him down a line or two as the game rolled along. At five-on-five, he was 0-3 goals, 1-4 HDSC and had three giveaways, two penalties and was more passenger than driver. A disappointing game from a fine player. Warren Foegele continues to impress, his pass on the Bjugstad goal showed real skill and vision, it’s not the first time recently we’ve seen it. A delightful run (8-8-16 in his last 26 games) for a player who has covered the trade and contract bet after looking a little bit in trouble two months ago. Nick Bjugstad has now scored three goals in eight games and displayed impressive coverage ability. I’d sign him if I were Ken Holland and the money was right.

Mattias Janmark was a second late on the fourth Sharks goal, made a nice play on the Bjugstad goal to earn an assist.

Derek Ryan had one shot, drew a penalty, but the line (Devin Shore, Klim Kostin) was outscored 1-0 in 4:19, 0-2 HDSC and just 15 percent expected goals. Both Ryan and Shore were 2-1 in faceoffs, Kostin had two giveaways.

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jtblack

glad to see Nurse get rewarded with a huge goal for the team.

jtblack

BATMAN & ROBIN updated 10 game segments (prior to last night game #71).

MCDAVID 10 11 11 22
 DRAISATL 10 6 15 21   
  
MCDAVID 10 5 8 13
DRAISATL 10 5 5 10
      
MCDAVID 10 10 14 24
DRAISATL 10 10 10 20
      
MCDAVID 10 7 9 16
DRAISATL 8 2 7 9 
     
MCDAVID 10 8 9 17
DRAISATL 10 6 10 16
      
MCDAVID 10 7 14 21
DRAISATL 10 7 5 12
      
MCDAVID 10 10 11 21
DRAISATL 10 8 8 16

MCDAVID TOTAL: 134 ——- PACE 157 POINTS
DRAISATL TOTAL: 104 ——— PACE 122 POINTS

Last edited 1 year ago by jtblack
LMHF#1

We’ve had a lot of talk with Campbell about the fact that he’s obviously struggling…but not a lot about what is actually wrong.

When I watch I see a lot of guessing rather than knowing on his part…in terms of where he’s got to be and where the puck is headed. I’m seeing him making himself small and not “commanding the crease” if you will.

He looks like an aggressive, athletic goalie when he’s going well…but right now seems to have minimized himself for some reason.

I’m speculating he needs both a kick in the pants in terms of his game structurally, but also significant time with a sports psych. I’m picking up a lot of Ben Scrivens tendencies from him. Scrivens was known to get WAY down on himself and have it seriously impact his game despite actually being a really good goalie.

Whether you think you’re great or not…you’re right! True for putting, goalies, many other things.

pixel-bender

Honestly, Campbell playing well in the third and overtime after a shaky first two periods is the best one can reasonably hope for.

On the one hand, it is a starting point for him to regain his confidence but that no longer means much — the only reason to play him is to give Skinner the rest he needs.

I’m glad to see that the Oilers carried the play in terms of scoring chances and expected goals for — thanks Lowetide and Natural Stat Trick — and that the game wasn’t as close as it felt last night.

Durag

I said to some buddies in the group text last night “you’re just praying for Campbell to post a 0.875” and that ended up being exactly what he did. Needed 3 disallowed goals and Ceci clearing one off the line when he went for another swim but….no damn it, I said I wasn’t going to talk about Campbell anymore!!

TheTikk

Just clarifying that you do not, under any circumstances, “gotta hand it to” Adolph Hitler Jack Campbell.

dustrock

Also loved the Bouch slap-pass to Nuge for what would be a highlight reel goal only for the fantastic non-call on Reimer, really have to give it to the zebras, finding amazing new ways to baffle the brain

Durag

Haha that was so bizarre. Is the correct call on that penalty or penalty shot?

Primetime

According to the stripes, the correct call is “play on!”

LMHF#1

Holding on Reimer.

TheTikk

I’m always curious about the random automatic downvotes on posts here. Is it a grudge thing against certain posters? Some people share really innocuous recap/analysis and seem to get an instant couple of red thumbs for it.

I would suggest that unless the content is truly objectionable or offensive, maybe just upvote-or-don’t?

EDIT: Ha! Insta-minus. You win, sad men of the internets.

Last edited 1 year ago by TheTikk
Durag

The trick is to not care about the upvotes/downvotes.

LMHF#1

I usually know I’ve struck the proper kind of chord if there’s a decent amount of downvotes. At least with certain types of posts.

After all…most people are wrong about hockey matters most of the time. They also don’t enjoy this being pointed out.

All good.

TheTikk

Yeah, I was reflecting critically on the total asset cost for Ekholm (and still do, though he’s been fantastic) and I believe the word “treason” was floated around…

LMHF#1

I love trying to have a discussion about market price, either on a trade or a contract around here. It really draws out the weird.

Nurse’s deal was the only option “because market”.
Leon’s deal becomes a value because of how he plays after (that’s not how the market works).
“You can’t trade ‘x’ player now while they still have value…they might be good maybe one day maybe”.

It is amusing.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

There is no logic to the voting system. There is likely a myriad of reasons why/how people vote.

Who cares.

maudite

I gave you a minus just to see if you cared.

Side

Sometimes I fat finger it when scrolling so I apologize for anyone I have accidentally and unknowningly given an upvote or a downvote.

Fortunately, I have been able to back out of the “report a post” when I accidentally tap the flag.

dustrock

LT you are a thoughtful, kind and extremely fair observer of the game and I appreciate your gentle touch.

Campbell let in 7 goals last night. I am not sure what he needs but I hope he finds it.

I’m not going to ad hominem and get upset at Campbell, who sounds like a really fantastic person, but we’re watching someone’s NHL career fall off a cliff in real time and it’s not a pleasure to see.

Holland has made some great signings and a couple of real good trades this season, full stop.

I would suggest he has been extremely lucky with his goalies. Counting on Smith for not one but two seasons, and now having a rising Principal Skinner save the season after Campbell has been truly horrid.

We’re a Skinner injury away from either disaster or one of the all-time great stories, if you know what I mean.

YYCOil

This pure conjecture.

Campbell is a career .910-.915 S%, how do you know that if Skinner gets hurt that Campbell does not find his career average. Why does he have to fail off a cliff? Lots of goalies go through poor period and come back to play better hockey.

Eh Team

The best thing for Campbell would have been a stint in the AHL earlier this year. He could have played himself into form with minimal pressure and we could have found out if Pickard was a usable option for a back-up.

Now we have neither.

JJS

I notice the defense are often jumping to assist their respective partners in battles (ala the swarm as LT notes) which runs counter to everything we were ever taught. The old mantra was let your partner battle and your guard the front of the net while a winger/centre makes his way over to assist.

Seems to me that this is where things break down. Both d-men caught in corners, behind the net, facing the wrong way etc. Quick to fix however.

hopeoil

Thank god the Oilers won, I was not looking forward to another “I know I can be better!” woe-is-me interview after another embarrassing performance from Jack Campbell.

Brantford Boy

Psst… we’re being positive now… pass it on…

John Chambers

I think we should be calling up Calvin Pickard to give him a couple of starts in case we need him as a backup in the playoffs.

He has a rather stellar record in 74 AHL games the past two season. He’s likely the second-best goalie in the Oilers’ system atm.

Shamus23

It is a win.
After that 1st goal Campbell’s body language looked like his cat just died. He was not good until the 3rd and OT where he played well.
Great OT it was fun and very exciting. Got to go to the game with the Brother in law and boys and man is Karlsson fun to watch. He is such a great skater and so smart. Looks like a young guy again.
Move on to Zona .

Brantford Boy

One of weirdest game I can recall watching. Take the 2 points and move on. I had a joke all lined up but after reading LT’s beautiful summary here it wouldn’t be right, he’s completely calmed me down. It was close last night though, don’t think Costco takes a TV back with a hockey stick lodged in it as a manufactures defect.

I just mentioned Campbell’s win-loss record to a friend during the Dallas game, again correct LT, absolutely incredible. What a year for the Nuge!

Last edited 1 year ago by Brantford Boy
maudite

When I commented on kanes brutal defensive play rm2 games ago, I was laughing at downvotes.he literally just stood flat footed and watch the guy chip it psst him and take puck on net with no one opposing. It was brutal.

I like Kane but I was glad woodcraft demoted him last night. No one should be above accountability if they intend to seriously compete for the cup.

Paulie

In other good news, N. Kadri played 12:35 in last night’s 8-2 loss to LA (well, the LA win is not good news I guess). He spent time on the fourth line. 6 more years at $42M for the 32 yr-old vet.

John Chambers

In an alternate universe the Flames have just traded the expiring contracts of Huberdeau and Weegar for 1st round picks, and are heading into the summer with tons of cap space and draft capital.

Instead, they are in the middle of the Sahara and low on water. Calgree sucks.

Diablo

Yeah – if ever there was a year where they had a built in excuse to tank hard for Berard… this was that year. They had a built in excuse and even if they didn’t win the lottery, they would be loaded up with picks and cap space after trading off Huberdeau and Weegar on their team friendly expiring contracts.

Instead, the lost Valimaki on waivers and will pick outside the top 10. They are paying a complimentary player superstar money and a 2nd pairing defense twice what Ceci makes …. For the next 8 years, starting at age 30.

Everyone everywhere was naming Treliving GM of the year last summer … I just hope they don’t do the right think and fire him this summer.

rich tm

The Phelgms face an interesting summer. Have the players tuned out the coach? On paper they should be much better, but this is a game played by humans. I’ll leave the analysis for another day and another blog. Just glad the Oilers came back last night night.

Durag

The Flames face an interesting summer like you face an interesting plane ride when someone took a dump in the aisle mid-flight. They’re capped out with a 19 man roster.

maudite

They have to at least try a different coach as 1st step.

Durag

There was a good 5-6 minute stretch after the Sharks’ 3rd disallowed goal where the Oilers didn’t muster a meaningful chance, or maybe even a shot. We were making SJ look like the 2001 Devils standing us up at the blueline and I thought it was just going to be one of those games. The big Viking on the blueline said “not today boys”. What a player.

I don’t feel like talking about our disaster of a backup goalie anymore and here’s hoping we won’t have to much more.

OriginalPouzar

I noted Bjugstad said after the game they didn’t have enough urgency early.

I noted Ekholm stated after the game (to paraphrase), there were some intense battles with playoff teams this week and perhaps they “exhaled” a bit this week.

I guess its good this stuff is acknowledged but I wish it didn’t happen as often as it does.

OriginalPouzar

Solid write up – I agree on most of the assessment.

Its weird, I stated last night that I didn’t know what to think of the game and I didn’t know if they deserved to win but also didn’t know if they deserved to lose.

Looking at the numbers here, the NST expected goal numbers, the Cult of Hockey scoring chance/five alarm scoring chance and expected goals and the Oilers essentially dominated.

The Oilers got the worse goal tending, neither McDavid nor Drai scored – and they won.

Genjutsu

I’d agree I mostly agree.

I’d say that Ekholm is looking like the best trade deadline pick up, not one of them. Hard to imagine a better partner for the Mighty Bouch.

That overtime was otherworldly fun.

maudite

There was barely a dump.in that Campbell attempted to control behind net where it didn’t end up awkwardly bobbled…thats got to be nerve wracking to play in front of.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite