Game One 2023 NHL Playoffs: Kings at Oilers

Game One of this series one year ago was frustrating and brilliant (Connor McDavid scored a fantastic goal) and decided by an Oilers goalie making a poor and dangerous decision with the puck. I don’t believe we’ll see a repeat this evening. I expect this series to involve three types of games. First, contests the Oilers dominate with top-end skill and are able to control. Second, games LAK can dictate the pace and style of play beginning to end, and win. Third? The Oilers wheel just enough in close games to win the day. I suspect we’ll see one of each, and do expect the Oilers to win in six games.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
• New DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
• Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be the Oilers first Calder winner
• New DNB: Stuart Skinner Q and A
• Lowetide: Oilers transcend reasonable expectations in 2022-23, led by Connor McDavid
• Lowetide: Who could be the Oilers’ playoff Fernando Pisani this year?
• DNB: Oilers ready for a playoff rematch with Avalanche
• DNB: Top seed in West and ‘momentum’ for playoffs
• Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
• Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

LAST YEAR GAME ONE POST GAME (written May 3, 2022)

The possible outcomes of a Mike Smith start are as far apart as sunrise and sunset.

Edmonton needs to figure out in a quick hurry what to do with the Danault line. The trio was 6-2 shots (1-0 goals) versus Keith-Bouchard; 2-0 shots (1-0 goals) against Nurse-Ceci; 1-1 shots and 1-0 goals in less than a minute against Russell-Barrie (I think that’s right, I’m estimating a little). As mentioned above, Danault owned Nuge’s line 2-0 and that’s really the difference in the game. You can say “keep Nuge away!” but the two lines spent just 3:37 against each other, the primary matchup was the Draisaitl unit. Danault also won that five-on-five battle, 1-0 goals and 4-0 shots in 5:25.

All of this is interesting, but if Smith’s neurons could hold a thought maybe Edmonton wins that game.

Bottom line: Either you believe in Woodcroft and Manson or you don’t, and either way is fine. I’ll throw my chips in with this coach, my guess is he’s trying to work around some injuries and didn’t think the Nuge line would take on that much water. He’s good at adjustments. Smith needs to be better.

AND WE’RE BACK!

It’s been years since this Oilers team had me thinking about the possibility of a Stanley Cup. We don’t know of course, but this is a veteran team that has been to hell and back and is building a strong playoff resume. The playoffs come at you fast, and Game One a year ago was intense. Here are the highlights. That team, the one described above, made the final four.

This year’s model is better, far better if you believe in the results since January 1. The best player in the the game is Connor McDavid, and if the LAK can play him to a draw Leon Draisaitl and his gang are up next. Edmonton has elite talent, more depth than in the past, and two pairings that can play versus elites effectively. The rookie goaltender, Stuart Skinner, has been money. I like this team’s chances to get past the Kings.

LIKELY LINES AND PAIRINGS (FIVE ON FIVE PERFORMANCE)

• Nuge-McDavid-Hyman. 209 minutes, 16-10 goals, 61 percent expected goals.
• Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto. 166 minutes, 12-7 goals, 47 percent expected goals.
• Kostin-Bjugstad-Janmark. 44 minutes, 4-1 goals, 47 percent expected goals.
• Foegele-McLeod-Ryan. 49 minutes, 1-2 goals, 58 percent expected goals.
• Nurse-Ceci. 1081 minutes. 46-48 goals. 50 percent expected goals.
• Ekholm-Bouchard. 290 minutes. 27-8 goals. 61 percent expected goals.
• Kulak-Desharnais. 242 minutes. 13-9 goals. 53 percent expected goals.
• Stuart Skinner 50 games .926 SP and 2.22 GAA
• Jack Campbell 36 games .896 SP and 3.05 GAA

If the top two lines keep firing as they have since being put together (Evander Kane checked down to the Draisiatl line in the later part of March), I think the Kings are going to have a difficult time. Although the left coast club did make some interesting changes at the deadline, Edmonton’s move for Mattias Ekholm gave the Oilers a perfect fit in an area of vital need.

BOOK SIGNING

I will be at Transit Smokehouse & BBQ on Fort Road on Saturday noon to 4pm to sign copies of ON THE CLOCK. I will have a limited number (about 25) books for purchase at $28, and we’ll be using E-transfer. I can also sign any purchased books at that time, make sure to bring it with you. Joining me are two brilliant authors and broadcasters, including the legendary Bob Layton who has written “Welcome to Radio” and “I’ll puke in your pocket and Side Hustles” plus Shane Blakely, who wrote “In and Above Edmonton: Then and Now”. The Transit Smokehouse and BBQ is at 12720 Fort Road. Noon to four pm Saturday. They have a lunch special that looks good! See you there!

THEY MIGHT BE GIANTS

In the spring of 1984, we knew. We didn’t know what year, but we knew the Edmonton Oilers would win the Stanley Cup. There was simply too much for other teams to overcome. Wayne Gretzky was the best player we’d ever seen, Mark Messier moving to center was an act of genius, Jari Kurri was elite across 200 feet, Glenn Anderson fearless. The secondary forwards who scored 20+ numbered three (Willy Lindstrom, Pat Hughes, Dave Hunter) and Ken Lineseman posted 49 assists as a quality two-way center.

On defense, Paul Coffey was brilliant and grabbed all the attention, but Kevin Lowe was the driving force of a defensive unit that could beat you at the racetrack and in the alley. Charlie Huddy and Randy Gregg were consistent, reliable and effective in both ends of the ice. Lee Fogolin, LEE FOGOLIN, was the heart and soul of the franchise and played cooler as things heated up. Need someone to sock an opponent in the jaw? Fogolin, Dave Semenko, Don Jackson or Dave Lumley could help there.

In goal, Grant Fuhr boasted a .911 save percentage in 16 games, Andy Moog an .891 total in seven contests. Moog would stop 23 of 25 on May 19, 1984 in the game that clinched Stanley No. 1 for Edmonton. Fuhr set the tone for the series when he shutout the New York Islanders on 34 stops in Game One (a 1-0 win) on the road.

It was a team effort. Jackson and Jaroslav Pouzar had zero points in the final and they played important roles.

It will be a team effort this time, too. It is also folly if one fails to recognize what a special player Connor McDavid has become. He sets his jaw and the hockey world quivers, and for good reason. However, giving McDavid the entire stage would not be proper, or a relection of this team. Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner and others will all make their mark on this franchise over the coming weeks.

Stanley, like tomorrow, is promised to no one. The Oilers seem inevitable.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

10-2 TSN1260, we’re wall-to-wall Oilers and Stanley Cup playoffs. Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will join us to talk about his brilliant piece on Connor McDavid and about the Oilers chances. We’ll chat about what makes this year’s Oilers different than the past, and how much of a hurdle the LA Kings represent. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!