The Edmonton Oilers have a rich history filled with many noteworthy events. One long forgotten event occurred on Saturday, April 28, 1984. The Oilers were playing against the Minnesota North Stars at the Met Center, and in the second period winger Dave Lumley was suckered into a five-minute spearing penalty. Edmonton was up 2-1 at the time, but by the time Lumley stepped out of the box, the North Stars held a 5-2 lead. An incredible four-goal barrage, three on the power play, put the Edmontonians in a hole. Fortunately, the Oilers scored six in a row for the win.
Lumley said that while in the penalty box “I thought about how much I hated Dino Ciccarelli for getting into this mess” and that’s a story I’d bet most of you reading today didn’t know. That’s the great thing about the shared experience of watching a hockey club. We are bound together by events. Last night is another example of why we connect over sports. There’s the action, the story and the memory.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ quality of ‘next man up’ could be key to deep playoff run
- New DNB: Klim Kostin relishes playoff atmosphere in role that could swing a series
- DNB: Oilers’ playoff excitement, expectations have already given way to Game 1 pain again
- Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
- DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
- Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be the Oilers first Calder winner
- New DNB: Stuart Skinner Q and A
- Lowetide: Oilers transcend reasonable expectations in 2022-23, led by Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Who could be the Oilers’ playoff Fernando Pisani this year?
- DNB: Oilers ready for a playoff rematch with Avalanche
- DNB: Top seed in West and ‘momentum’ for playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
BOUCHARD AND DESHARNAIS
I thought of Lumley in 1984, and other events through the years, when players struggled in big moments and things looked dire. Evan Bouchard was walkabout on the first GA last night, and combined with his late penalty in Game 1, perhaps he was contemplating life during last night’s game. Vincent Desharnais got pick pocketed just enough to make an errant pass and that resulted in a puck hitting the back of Edmonton’s net. It’s a thin line, folks. Edmonton won a big game, and so these little moments in time will fade away. But they did happen, and they were part of the storyline until Klim Kostin’s heroics. There’s the action, the story and the memory.
GOALIES AND DEFENSE
- Darnell Nurse won’t get credit for it, because the contract, but he was quality again last night for the Oilers. Good positioning, great wheels, some lovely shot suppression (six blocked shots and a takeaway). Just one giveaway, he is 4-0 goals while on the ice five-on-five in this series. Went 3-7 shots versus Kopitar line, 2-2 HDSC and no harm in GA.
- Evan Bouchard is 66 percent expected goals but 0-2 goals when on ice at five-on-five. We should see regression in Los Angeles, although the dice have no memory. One assist, three shots, drew a penalty, two takeaways. Late for the sky on the Philip Danault goal, he was defending but wandered a little too far.
- Cody Ceci is 2-0 goals at five-on-five in this series. Had a couple of shots, including a HDSC, five hits, two shot blocks. In 14:10 with Nurse last night, Edmonton lost the shot share (4-9) and expected goals percentage (38) with Nurse far more effective (in a small sample) with the rookie Broberg. I think Ceci still might be hurting a little.
- Mattias Ekholm is 0-3 at five-on-five this series, with a 63 percent expected goal share. He left the slot and then didn’t stop the pass on the Danault goal, but had a right to assume Bouchard or other would race to the slot. He covered the pass on the two-on-one that turned into a Gabriel Valardi breakaway goal, I think that’s also textbook if one assumes Desharnais can impact the play. The Oilers dominated the Danault line while he was on the ice, but still landed 0-1 goals. Stuff happens. Three shots, one HDSC, one giveaway, nine hits, two shot blocks, he’s a wonderful player but is having a tough time in this series with results. That should change, the underlying numbers remain strong. His HDSC was a dandy.
- Brett Kulak kept the house clean defensively, 1-0 shots and calm seas when he was on the ice. He’s a luxury on the third pairing, the Oilers will be blessed if they can keep him there for the entire playoffs.
- Vincent Desharnais blocked a couple of shots, hit a few people and played a rugged game. His wayward pass was the beginning of the second LAK goal, but he got back and almost impacted the play. He is 0-1 at five-on-five this series through 29:25 with a 60 percent expected goal share. What a tremendous find.
- Philip Broberg didn’t play much, but the sun was out during his 4:39 at five-on-five. He went 2-0 goals, 73 percent expected goals. He had one shot on goal and three hits.
- Stuart Skinner made the first stop on the Danault goal, and that should have been all the LAK center could deliver, but he was allowed to linger and suddenly it’s 2-1. The Valardi goal was a breakaway but from a bad angle. I don’t fault Skinner on that goal, but it’s one you’d like the guardien to stop most of the time. He owns a .927 SP at five-on-five, for me that’s the best indicator of a goalie playing well. That’s a good number. I don’t think Skinner’s goaltending has been an issue in this series, that’s a positive.
FORWARDS
- Connor McDavid was flying in this game, delivering an all-world assist, six shots, one HDSC, one shot block, a TK (2GV) in a quality performance. He has received a steady diet of the Philip Danault line (25 minutes through two games) and is winning the shot share 19-7 with an expected goal share of 80 percent. No goals in the matchup, but those are dominant numbers. A year ago, this matchup (97 vs. Danault) lasted 36 minutes, McDavid winning the shot battle 28-14 but 1-2 goals, 72 percent expected goals. I’m reading there’s something wrong with the captain, he must have been positively ill last year because early indications are he’s dominating more in 2023. Folks, 19 shots for in 25 minutes against a noble opponent is incredible. 10-1 HDSC in those minutes.
- Leon Draisaitl is the best player in this series. He leads the NHL in playoff points (2-3-5, tied with Roope Hintz) and is an absolute bull. He’s paying Mikey Anderson back with interest. In 15 minutes five-on-five against the LAK blue, Edmonton is 2-1 goals. Last night, his power-play goal was the patented nuclear paddle, and his two assists were the result of astute and subtle work. Lots being made of his not being able to impact the play on the Danault goal, and that’s fair. However, like the McDavid back pass in Game 1, let’s review. These two towers of power are not perfect, and expecting it tells me more about you than it does about McDavid and Draisaitl.
- Zach Hyman had three shots, one HDSC, a good look on a rebound, strong O-zone time where he owned the puck and kept it from danger. Hyman has one assist and seven HDSC in this series, I like his chances of scoring soon.
- Evander Kane picked up an empty net goal and has been productive in this series (1-1-2, six HDSC). He took a penalty on the PK, didn’t play at all on the four-on-five in Game 1 but the injury to Mattias Janmark meant someone had to step up. I don’t blame him for the penalty, it’s a reaction play and the Oilers killed everything off. Kane is a big part of this team, in all ways.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had five shots in the game, two HDSC and found some clean air that wasn’t available in the first game. The top line has played 23:21 five-on-five, owns a 17-8 shot advantage and is 0-1 goals. A 71 percent expected goal share five-on-five will be rewarded eventually.
- Kailer Yamamoto is helping move the puck in a good direction, but not impacting the scoresheet. The No. 2 line has played 19:19 five-on-five, 13-10 shots, 1-1 goals and an expected goal share of 57 percent. The young winger is not scoring as he did one year ago (about .5 pts-game in both regular season and playoffs) and that has to change if he’s going to stay on the line.
- Ryan McLeod won seven of 10 in the dot, had a nice look on a rebound and has been wildly effective on the PK in early days.
- Nick Bjugstad had one shot, a great HDSC I thought was in. I like him, think he needs to shoot more (two shots in the series, two HDSC) but suspect he’ll have a positive impact on the series overall. Solid two-way center, perfect complementary player for this team’s skill set.
- Warren Foegele didn’t have his usual impact but I love his stripped down, simplified game. Some players are all hat and no cattle at this time of year, Foegele does all his chores before sunup. I’m a fan.
- Derek Ryan scored a big early goal and had another good look later. Some takeaways and good forechecking, he certainly made a difference in this game.
- Klim Kostin scored a massive goal for this organization last night, and did it at the exact moment it was needed. Played a tough, physical game and made some good decisions. The play didn’t die on his stick and my goodness he shows up in good ways for this team. Helluva trade by Ken Holland. Sign the man.
I got a tremendous amount of pushback on the first tweet, and I get it. However, this is what is fabulous about sports, the unknown, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. It’s a wonderful series, honestly. Please enjoy it. Learn to understand that pit in your stomach is a reflection of the importance of the game and how you feel about it, but if the Oilers lose it isn’t a reflection of you as a person. If you didn’t enjoy last night’s game, or tweeted me about how Stuart Skinner is garbage or the top two lines are rancid, I encourage you to watch the game again. These Oilers are working their hearts out for you. Honest.
SEE YOU SATURDAY!
A reminder I’ll be oot and aboot this Saturday. Transit Smokehouse & BBQ on Fort Road is the place, this Saturday noon to 4pm is the time. I’ll be there to sign copies of ON THE CLOCK and I’ll even read some of my favourite passages if you like. I will have a limited number (about 25) books for purchase at $28, and we’ll be using E-transfer. I can also sign any purchased books at that time, make sure to bring it with you.
Joining me are the legendary Bob Layton who has written “Welcome to Radio” and “I’ll puke in your pocket and Side Hustles” plus the growing legend Shane Blakely, who wrote “In and Above Edmonton: Then and Now”. The Transit Smokehouse and BBQ is at 12720 Fort Road. Noon to four pm Saturday. I won’t be selling 8-tracks, will save those for my summer garage sale.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10 this morning, it’s four hours of playoff talk with emphasis on the Oilers. Your comments are welcome, appreciate you listening. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Late to the party tpday, perhaps this has already been covered in the comments which I have not time to read more than a sampling.
I remember that Lumley game well, the North Stars actually scored 4x while he was in the box, but the fourth was 4v4 so techncially even strength. Second time that season the Oilers allowed 4 goals on the same major penalty, happened in Hartford in the famous 11-0 game as well.
Anyway, the Oilers came back to win that gamee going away, 8-5, on a barrage of goals by Coffey, then Kurri on the PP, Anderson then Linseman at EV, & Messier then Gretzky on the (same) PK. Gretzky’s on a penalty shot, no less. It was an amazing comeback to take a 3-0 lead in the series & totally deflate the North Stars.
As for Lumley spearing Ciccarelli, whatever Dino received was a fraction of what he had coming. He was a real prick.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/198404280MNS.html
Stone is having a night. Just scored his second of the period, this one looked like it changed direction a bit off the defender’s stick. Only two to play, so 5-2, pretty insurmountable, but the Jets did what they needed to and got a win in enemy territory.
It’s too bad Vegas and Colorado won tonight, even though Winnipeg and Seattle respectively had leads at one point. But yes, they both took a game at least on the road.
Summarizing!
Petrov’s first goal of the playoffs tied the game and forced OT, eventually won in the second extra frame by the Battalion.
Petrov also had 8 SOG as NB tied the series at 2. All but one of the games have gone beyond 60 mins.
Back to the officiating debate.
It’s early days, but the Oilers are last in power play toi/game by quite a margin averaging under two minutes per game, lmao.
The Kings lead the charge averaging just over 8 minutes per game. That’s quite a disparity.
Canadian teams are ranked:
8th: Toronto
12th: Winnipeg
16th: Oilers
in PP toi/game.
Last year in the first series against LA?
The Oilers were 15th in the league at 4:08 per game and the Kings were 8th at 6:16 per game.
That’s actually pretty funny when I think back to the scrums last year in that series.
Clearly, there’s nothing to see here, rollseyes
Alternatively, we can look at penalty differentials.
This season, the Kings are plus six (first) and we’re correspondingly -6 (last). The Kings are net 2.78/60 (1st) and we’re -2.78/60 (last).
Last year’s playoffs, Tampa was + 10, Colorado +7, and the OIlers were -9 (last). The Kings were 6th last year at +3.
Per 60, the Kings were 3rd at 0.43 net penalties/60. The Oilers were 13th at -0.56.
Maybe the Oilers need to sand bag on their PP heading into the playoffs next year.
Going into the playoffs with a historic powerplay just makes it easier for the refs to game manage.
I see where you’re going here, but this is a bit misleading, as TOI doesn’t factor in efficiency. What you’re really after is PP opportunities. Granted, the Oilers are indeed tied for last with NYI and of all teams COL with 4 opportunities each after 2 games.
The Oilers are only last in PP TOI because COL and NYI haven’t converted any of their opportunities.
To a degree, it’s misleading which is why I did the follow up post pertaining to penalty differential rates.
Still the gap between the Oilers historic PP and the worst in the league is only 16.8% efficiency. The gap between our PP and the next best in the league, the Leafs is only 6.4%.
This sort PP efficiency gap doesn’t account for say the Kings having over 2 minutes per game of PP time last year.
While we may have company in not drawing a lot of penalties, I think the penalty differential is more pertinent. First, it matters less how many penalties a team draws if they’re taking less penalties. Second, you would expect a degree of collinearity between rates of penalties taken and drawn. Teams that take more penalties would be expected to draw more, not less penalties… retaliation… even up calls… fighting majors, etc.
As I said, we have the worst rate of net penalties this season and we were near the bottom last season.
we might own some of this, but I think it’s more than that.
Honest question: should we just count total penalties for/against?
The time spent with a man advantage by a highly efficient PP team would naturally be lower than that of an inefficient PP team even if the # of penalties for/against was even, would it not?
That’s why I included net penalties per sixty in my follow up post.
Still I think that the PP Toi / game is more tangible to look at and that the power play efficiency gaps don’t account nearly for the differences.
What is best for HRR? An EDM-BOS final? An Edm-CAR final? Or an EDM-TOR final? I really want to see the escrow debt retired and the cap to increase more for next year.
“none of the above”
– NHL Director of Officiating
NYR-LAK
Two of the largest markets in the league.
TOR-LAK would work too but tickets sold in U.S. have more value.
TBH as long as the Oil win I’m happy. Not sure how material the opponents are to HRR for the playoffs vs length of series. More games, more ticket, concession and ad revenue I would think….
So perhaps we finish round 1 quick, All other series go 7 is the optimal outcome for round 1 for HRR. I wonder how close we are and how much has to be projected to retire the debt?
If it’s a large market but nobody pays attention, is it the largest market? Surely Toronto has a larger market of actual give a shit fans than LA? What could is a large market of basketball/beach/golf/whatever fans?
The best scenario for HRR is 7 games series all around…Once series sit a 2-2 we’ll see less game mgmt IMO
This could get interesting! Pavelski out for Dallas for at least 2 games, Seattle leading Colorado 2-0 after 1 and might take a 2-0 series lead. If Winnipeg takes down Vegas tonight they will have a 2-0 series lead as well. We need to close out our series in decent health as the West might be wiiiiiiide open this year!
Dream sequence as a Canadian fan might be EDM over LA, Winnipeg, Seattle and Toronto for the Cup?
A tip o’ the hat to your sequence of opponents.
Every Stanley Cup the Oilers have won has gone through Winnipeg.
I’m not superstitious – I’m only a little stitious – but Winnipeg beating Vegas would be a clear indication that the Hockey Gords are on board.
Rangers are built for the Playoffs. I remember the Grand Pooh-bah mention on numerous occasions that Patrick Kane was washed up.
Similar to the Oilers – solid drafting (lately) and upgrades at the deadline… also reigning semifinalists. NJ should be better but look like they have those first year ‘playoff hockey is extra-hard’ wide eyes
Looks like 8 guys have never played a playoff game before this year, and 4 more played 5 or fewer games back in 2018 in a quick exit. They most definitely are not a well seasoned team.
Honestly, the Rangers are my pick for coming out of the East.
They’re forward depth is ridiculous, great D corps, Adam Fox is truly elite and Shesty as the X-Factor that even with a shitty team could steal a serious by himself.
I hope I’m right, would love to see the Oilers beat them in the finals.❤️❤️❤️🤗🤗🤗
On his 33rd SOG of these playoffs, Petrov finally gets his first goal, a timely one to tie the game at 3 halfway through the third.
6-1 for the Leafs. They should take this game easily (though a Tampa comeback at this point would break that fan base completely). Tampa really missing those d-men and Vasilevsky is looking rather mortal.
Our boy Stu has a better game 2 save percentage than Vasilevsky is currently rocking.
If the Leafs blow this 3 zip lead the City will implode.
Leaves turning the tables on TBL – funny how that happens when you lose 3 defensemen.
One thing I don’t understand, not sure if anyone has insight.
Why are the early (and late) game start times staggered? Like why on earth are Rangers-Devils and Bruins-Panthers starting at 7:30 ET?
If both early games started at 7:00 ET like always, all the late games could start at 9:30 ET (9:50).
Who is benefiting from one of the early games starting later than usual?
I confess, the answer is me. The game times are spot on perfect right now for me. My apologies.
Ha. Truth be told they aren’t that far off for me either.
9:00ET/7:00MT would be perfect, I hate the ‘normal’ 7:00PM starts if the Oilers are out east where I am. The 10:00ET starts are wearing on me a bit though.
People who like watching the anthems?
It might actually be staggered for the intermissions. Maybe so the “Analysts” can talk about each game separately between periods
I don’t know I’m kinda pulling at strings here…
I don’t buy ‘people who like anthems’ 🙂 but staggering the analysts actually makes some sense. Definitely plausible.
The start times will be decided by the U.S. broadcasters maximizing their potential audiences.
The east coast games, where commute times are generally longer, are starting in prime time.
The Toronto series are games starting at times that the massive GTA audience is comfortable with.
The WC games start when audiences in the major TV markets in the U.S., Dallas, Denver and Los Angeles are hitting prime time.
Audiences in Winnipeg and Edmonton are miniscule in relative terms.
Follow the money.
According to this no one on the West coast gives AF about watching hockey. The numbers are year old, and don’t include Canadian teams. Presumably any decisions would be made based on how many people actually watch rather than the size of the market.
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2022/05/09/Insiders/Sports-media.aspx
Still doesn’t make a lot of sense – the largest West coast viewership market (Kraken) gets to start games at 6:30 local time, while the Knights/Jets game starts at 8:00 or 9:00 local times.
Those numbers are not only dated but reflect regular season viewership on regional sports networks not ESPN and TNT.
The RSN have had ongoing issues being included in cable packages with many fans complaining they can’t even find the games.
National broadcasts are a totally different animal.
Bally has stations all over the country and the three with the lowest viewership are LAK, ANA and ARI. I don’t buy that’s all due to cable packages.
Anyway, the original question was why are the start times of the games staggered. Is ‘because it maximizes US audiences’ the only insight you’ve got?
What else would I need.
That’s exactly the reason.
And Bally Sports has been an unmitigated disaster, recently filing for bankruptcy.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/diamond-sports-bankruptcy-bally-sports-network/#
Some sort of explanation, or speculation, or guess, as to why staggering the start times is beneficial was what I was hoping for.
My bad for expecting anything other than a pointless run around.
I already told you.
I guess you were looking for something else.
TV start times are the drivers of the schedule.
For example…when the Leafs play in Vancouver, the games always start at 4PM PST to maximize the audience in the GTA.
It’s enshrined in the Constitution that 1 game has to start at Newfoundland time.
Everyone has been busting their ass especially to start the game. Like McDavid mentioned in the post game it’s their Goalie Korpisalo making tough save after tough save. Skinner needs to be better we’re lucky that weekass Goal was scored at the end of the period it just deflated the players and the crowd. The kings did hit the post with seconds left in the 2nd. The shot by Kostin was where Mike Bossy probably scored over 200 Goals a wicked snapshot with the D screening Korpisalo who never seen it.
That shot by Kostin, yeah, that was something that bears further discussion.
You don’t usually see bottom sixers take that type of shot. That’s the type of shot you see from real high-end shooters. There are not many players on the Oilers who take shot like that or put them in the back of the net like that (outside of 29,97, and 91).
When we try and remove our biases does anyone really feel the reffing has been biased agaisnt the Oilers this series?
Last nights penalties;
I don’t recall the Kings committing another major infraction. Some will point to the punch on Desharnais but I thought it was a dive. I had Hyman’s “boarding” about 85% and it wasn’t called.
Game 1;
As for missed calls, off the top of my head I remember Foegele getting hauled down as maybe being something. But I also remember Ryan cross-checking Lizotte in anger, awkwardly into the boards with no call.
One team is clearly trying to physically impose their will. The other is doing everything they can to avoid putting the GOAT PP out there too often. There will and should be a discrepency if this is the strategy of both teams. From what I gather Isles and Canes is like this too with the same outcome.
It’s like the Kings and Oilers have switched roles – now it’s the big bad oilers and the more vanilla Kings hanging back.
I think the Oilers have to be a little more careful in playing into LA’s hand allowing them to dive and embellish because it’s working. But I agree that LA has played very clean hockey, it’s quite impressive actually!
I don’t think they have switched roles. The two teams were penalized nearly the same through the regular season.
It’s hard to believe that the Kings have cleaned up their game that much more than the Oilers have.
A punch to the face is a punch to the face.
Look what he made him do.
Desharnais should have been called for inciting face punches. No brainer.
Agreed. Lots of stupid stick infractions not I’m the d-zone.
It’s hard to debate the calls made against the Oilers outside of maybe Doughty’s which looked like there was some embellishment in real time watching it.
However, your type of analysis suffers from omission bias if you only focus on the actual calls made.
There were lots of things like slashes on 97 that didn’t get call that maybe could have.
The Kings were also really greasy on the faceoffs with holding Oiler sticks that never got called.
McDavid is a little too honest. He’ll fight through any obstruction and slashes to the point he almost makes it difficult to call a penalty against the opposing team. He could benefit from a tiny bit of gamesmanship without flopping around the ice like Byfield or diving like Marchand. Maybe drop his stick once in awhile as he’s being slashed repeatedly.
Didn’t it used to be if you played through it they’d be more likely to call it?
I don’t think there’s anyone in the league who plays through fouls harder than McDavid. I think that combined with him being Neo, and everything happens a 2x speed, it leads to him drawing less penalties than he possibly could.
I wouldn’t mind at least coincidental for diving thrown in here or there.
Nuge on doughty trip doughty literally clenched onto stick and pirouetted last game. First game early on he poorly over embellished shove and thankfully got no call.
There’s a couple clear interference calls in my head as well.
Should the penalties be even? No.
But neither should game management be overriding making a few calls at same level they’ve been called other way because one team has lead entire series.
Looking hard for calls one direction is bs. Not tossing a diving call in when clear over embellishing also bs.
Interesting thoughts, well-articulated. How do we remove bias to check this thought?
I had a go.
Im living and teaching in Singapore so games are live around 10:30am here.. I am following a bit during live action by looking at shots and score intermittently.
By this measure it seems like flow of play would dictate Oilers should be getting way more PPs.
I watched game after knowing outcome for game 2, thereby removing any emotional attachment. I was intentionally looking for missed infractions that should have been called. I can honestly say the Kings played a very clean/smart game. They are definitely playing afraid of the Oilers pp. they remind of the Winnipeg series a few years back. The Oilers are still dominating but cannot get the third goal and are then getting a bit frustrated, it appears. We need to play with a bit more composure. It’s such a fine line when you are the team pushing the pace and physical play, and the other team is just playing a pure defensive, somewhat passive style.
So happy to have Woodcroft at the helm because his leadership is so consistent. When his team follows suit and plays their best game, they are so dominant.
Anyway, off on a tangent but watching in an unbiased way, as I have been able to, has led me to see the games so far in this series have been called pretty well. No super obvious misses (save maybe punch to Desharnais’ face) and all Oiler penalties have been clear infractions.
Thanks for your contribution. The layer of bias that I’m talking about is a bit more subtle.
How we feel about whether a penalty is called can be greatly influenced by the TV crew and whether or not a penalty gets called.
Imagine two scenarios.
Scenario 1 – Desharnais gets punched in the face in real time by Iaffalo during the flow of game with no call.
Scenario 2 – Let’s say they did call the punch by Iaffalo to Desharnai.
Now, not only do they call the foul, but lets say we see a replay of the punch from 2 different angles, maybe one slowed down even.
Now, how you look at that play it’s going to be quite different. When it just plays through in real time and they let it go, you think , hmm yeah maybe they could have called that one…
but if they did call it and replayed it twice, once in slow mo. you would feel stronger about it being called and being called correctly with less ambivalence.
You can amplify this effect again. Lots of stuff happens away from the flow of play. During the 3rd, Edler in the corner of the screen absolutely flattened some Oiler (at the Oilers’ blue line). I couldn’t see who it was. The puck wasn’t anywhere near either of them. Play continued. Now, again, if Edler had been called and replay of his flattening an Oiler away from the play was shown, our reactions would be different.
Again, instead of seeing it and thinking, ‘yeah maybe they could’ve called that one,’ our reaction would shift to ‘yeah, I can’t see how they could have let that penalty go uncalled.’
The silver lining of the Kings 1-3-1 strategy and their accompanying dictum to stay out of the box; the intensity and nastiness isn’t a fraction of what I thought it would be. And I, like many, thought the surest way to failure for the Oilers this spring would be through injury.
If they survive this chess match they should be in relatively good shape come round two***
***knock on wood
I do wonder why the Oilers don’t force LA to come out of their 1-3-1 trap when they get their leads. I’ve never seen such a passive trap with the F1 at the red line even when trailing. Like any system, one crack among the five breaks the entire system. Sit back at the faceoff dots and run your double-hinge over-and-over. If you don’t like what you see hold the puck and let the forwards change and do it all over again.
Stay disciplined with it and they’ll have no choice but to change it up.
Worst case you burn off minutes of time. Best case you crack them open. Awesome case scenario, you embarrass the league and get a rule change that helps you for the entire McDavid/Draisaitl window.
That 1-3-1 thing’s been done before and was discussed in the thread last night – TBL circa 2010 – 2013 under Guy Boucher. When Philly decided to just hold the puck in their zone for 90 seconds or so, refs whistled it down and threatened a ‘delay of game’ on the Flyers.
Over at ON, Bruce Curlock has a great breakdown of how and why the Oilers have had success vs this strategy.
It seems TMac is a retro kinda coach and I hope he remains ossified.
While they didn’t make zero attempt to advance, the Oiler were taking their sweet time getting those changes in last night before moving up ice. They were milking that same strategy last night, just not to the extent they’d get called for it.
Yep, I agree, they lingered and casually played with the puck more ing G2. Probably burned off 2 minutes that LA wished they had at the end. As I mentioned, it’s a foolish structure to basically concede possession and half the ice. It’s also an admission that they can’t match the Oilers speed and skill, and are hanging their hopes on collapse defense, Korpi and opportunistic counterattacks – heck, it worked for one game!
Yup.
If AI could deepfake a Bob Cole circa 1997 play-by-play plus a current day Ferraro on colour (although I loved Harry Neale too), that would be glorious. Those guys were just so great at bringing a game to life.
I’m just not a Singer fan. He just doesn’t tap in to the emotional ebbs and flows of a game and match his intensity up with it. Combine that with the unusual language (a good stop is not a shot “rejected”, this isn’d basketball dude). I did appreciate the Punjabi sound clips of “bang bang Kris Letang!” or “Bonino! Bonino! Bonino!” but he’s just a big nothingburger in English.
Michaels is at least better at sensing the emotion of the game although I know plenty here don’t like that. I definitely find most of the American play-by-play guys too screamy.
My current day favourite would probably be Gord Miller (shout out to Romaniuk and Cuthbert) with Mike Johnson on colour. Those guys are a TSN treasure.
Harry Neale certainly knew how to play off Cole — just let one of the greats go at it and chime in when you absolutely have to.
If you’re a fan of the play-by-play team simply reflecting the emotion of the game then they were certainly an excellent pair.
But some Neale certainly had his drawbacks:
1: I used to think he put a tonne of research before every game. He knew who was hot, and could chime off how many goals so-and-so scored in the last 10 games, and who had gone pointless for an extended period. But then NHL teams started putting up websites, and on those websites you could find a media guide for each game — which had word for word all of the info Neale was relaying. He was waling into the stadium shortly before game time and simply reading to us from the media guide.
2: In either 06 or 07 the Ducks lost their second line centre Andy MacDonald mid-way through a period to injury — drastically changing their deployment and impacting the Ducks chances. Neither he or Cole noticed. At one point CBC had someone from the panel interrupt them to inform the audience as to what happened.
Again. Captive audience. Producers and talent who don’t want to change. I’m not a fan.
Couldn’t stand listening to Bob Cole.
But then I grew up listening to the Master, Danny Gallivan.
Loved Harry Neale though, probably the wittiest color guy ever. He had some great one liners.
Danny Gallivan was the GOAT, IMHO.
Dan Kelly was the best hickey broadcaster in history.
Hockey too.
you knew him well, I see
My fave if Neale: “They’ve only put 7 shots on net. Seven! I had more BEERS than that last night!”
I’m not a fan of play by play guys that don’t seem to know the game deeply. Definitely following the emotion of the game is penultimate. Those old timey fellas haven’t been matched in Canadian broadcasts yet
Ferraro is awesome.
I found messier kind of interesting in booth a couple ranger game feeds I watched. Not super nuanced but entertaining.
It’s not a national broadcast but Terry Crisp doing color in Nashville was great.
47th in NHL playoff scoring = Connor McDavid.
Hes obviously not very good. If coach was any good he’d probably sit him.
Well, 47th is still a 1st line scoring rate.
Kane and Bouchard are 17th (Kane is a bum though).
Nuge, Hyman, Kostin, Ryan, Janmark (rip) and Nurse all mid-1st line scorers too (mostly also bums).
Coach, yeah.
Considering 8 teams are playing their second games tonight, I expect we’ll see some radical adjustments to those rates.
Where do you figure McDavid will be after tonight?
Any sane person knows McDavid will get his. That is one thing i am not worried about in the least.
Tonight:
Cheering for Tampa; Seattle; Winnipeg; NYR
Who is everyone else cheering for tonight?
Tampa: Because Leafs
Seattle: Will be cheering for Seattle up to the point they play the Oilers
Winnipeg: Because Knights
New Jersey: Because I chose them in my playoff bracket
Leafs. I had a Carl Brewer sweater when I was 5. It isn’t the Leafs I hate. It is the Leaf media and fans. (self-loathing included) I am weak.
I’ve got a pretty healthy dislike for a number of their players too..
1. I still for the life of me don’t really know almost which team I want to cheer against less
2. Seattle
3. WPG
4. NJD
Ah, thank you LT.
It took me 20 years to learn this, and life became much better as a result:
“If the Oilers lose it isn’t a reflection of you as a person.”
Best comedy of the night was Yamamoto’s face wash on Kempe. Yamo was delighted with it and dragging out the moment for full effect.
By the time Kempe gets to look behind him and look down he is dumbfounded with what to say. It appeared like he looked at Yamo and simple said “Really?”
Loved that moment. Me and my boys were all laughing out loud. I thought Kempe said “Go Away” once he finally realized it was this child giving him the stinky mitt.
Yamamoto reminds me of Judomaster from Peacemaker.
Hockey is a sport where luck plays a large role. A puck hit midair sails over the glass. A stick gets caught in the blade, resulting in a tripping call. A puck squeezes between glove and pad or trickles in just above. The goaler on the other end gets to the puck by an inch, repeated times. A puck hits iron and out instead of iron and in.
The luck to date has heavily gone in favour of the LAK, to my eye. RNH and McDavid were both an inch from potting one or two last night, for instance. We forget these happenings because an almost doesn’t get a mark on the scoreboard. Both LAK goals were the converse (their best chance, by contrast, was a clean beat, but hit iron and out).
Despite losing against lady luck, we’re 1-1, and EDM has shown they can dominate the Kings for prolonged stretches. Going forward, I’d rather be the team that held the opponent shotless for almost the full first period in a pivotal game.
Every thing mentioned in your first paragraph is the result of intentional action of the mind and body responding to a current situation. I’d be interested in your definition of luck. None of those seem to fit. Luck is not the absence of omnipotence.
If the goalie has 98% of the goal covered when the shooter takes a blind shot, is it luck that the puck goes in?
Probabilities, odds, persistence, number of trials needed before a successful outcome…what’s that old saying about “the harder I work the luckier I get.”?
I’d be interested in YOUR definition of luck.
And no Oiler discussion would be complete without a mention of penalty calls and non-calls. That’s another possibly-random influence on game outcomes.
I mean, if you want to play reply guy, there is no such as “luck”, but merely an unforeseeable conjunction of causes.
Did the players make the ice on which they skated? Did they choose the temperature of the puck before they shot it? Did they see to every aspect of their equipment? Did they have control of the countless skate marks on the ice before the puck decided to hop this way or that?
The point, of course, is that countless things that are in fact outside of the “intentional action of the mind and body” informs the ordinary experience of a hockey game. Lady luck, if we aren’t being difficult.
Are we really searching for a scientific definition of luck? Or can we call it an unusual occurance? Perhaps at either an opportune time or inopportune time?
Well simply put:
If things continue on as they are, the Kings can’t expect to succeed. They are being utterly dominated for long stretches of time, and when they do carry the play it’s for shorter periods and to a far lesser degree.
1: They can’t expect to continue to have 5 power plays for every one awarded the Oilers
2: They can’t expect the best player on the planet to continue to dominate possession / shots / shot attempts and not generate goals
3: They can’t expect to give up the volume of scoring opportunities they are to the highest scoring team in the league and not fall behind by 3 – 4 goals
4: They can’t continue to spend the majority of the series behind in the score and expect to be successful
Goaltenders do steal series, and teams do lose despite dominating play. It’s not a recipe for success however, and if things continue on as they are the Oilers should expect to come out of the series victors 9 times out of 10.
What do you call it when intentional action doesn’t always lead to the intentional result? You have to throw chance in there somewhere.
Lack of omnipotence is not chance.
Also – If I swing at a puck, whether I hit it and where I hit it is not chance. Unless you’re using a really odd definition compared to other things.
I think we just have different perspectives on the universe. What you are saying sounds to me like determinism. What is your definition of chance?
Luck doesn’t exist. What we ‘define’ as luck is just random occurrence. What we ‘perceive’ as luck, good or bad, is outlier outcomes. If Kane hits a puck above his head and it goes out of the playing surface on an unexpected trajectory, that’s not bad luck. He just hit it an odd angle. We choose to perceive this as bad luck because the typical outcome is the puck staying in the playing surface. The human brain strives to normalize reality when the reality is randomness rules.
Is hitting posts bad luck? It would seem to be good luck for the goalie. Do the two cancel each other out?
It is totally luck.
There is about a 20 degree swath that results in the puck going out without touching the sides.
And 340 degrees where it is ok.
Add the variables of how the puck is spinning and it’s trajectory it ends up just random chance.
Even hitting the post is luck. 4 millimeters over and it bounces off the post, hits the goalies rear and deflects back in the net. 2 Centimeters over and it angles off the post directly into the net.
Hitting the Post is bad luck for the shooter, the goalie is ok if he has the empty part of the net covered.
How great was Kostin’s post goal celly? Balance and swagger at the same time! He’s a beaut.
He is. Hockey needs more fun, to be honest. It’s so grim and vanilla 90% of the time. Give me more characters!
Koskin proves that a top talent team like the Oilers is better off poaching 1st round “busts” from other teams then retooling them; instead of painstakingly trying to develop teenagers.
I’ve been saying this for years.
Its a long standing market inefficiency.
Many ‘failed” high draft picks just are not a good fit on the team that drafted them.
See Andrew Cogliano for reference.
Totally agree. I was pulling for the Oilers to acquire Sam Steel a while back with this very thing in mind. Ex Oiler Billy Guerin beat us to it. He may be a GM to watch.
Remiss of me not to post Bowie when LT references it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oRgZjcfE4g&ab_channel=DavidBowie-Topic
Or ABC’s Wild World of Sports! (Wu-Tang Clan for the generation – or two – after.)
HDSC
I know I’ve harped on this before, but it is truly bothersome. How NST’s HDCF gets mistranslated after every game on this site is baffling.
One of the major reasons for using Math is precision. To then blur the definition for one’s own reasons defeats that entire purpose. And is most unhelpful.
For eg, Hyman does not have 7 HDSC in this series. He has 7 shot attempts from high danger areas. These are not the same things.
I am guilty of this mistranslation, but by NST’s definition SCF stands for scoring chances for and HDCF stands for high danger scoring chances for (and iHDCF individual high danger scoring chances for).
So it’s kind of a correct mistranslation.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?players
I like to look at a blend of HDCF, SCF and xGF. They each tell a slightly different story.
Dino Ciccarelli was an under-rated agitator. People remember him for all the goals he scored, including a 50 goal season (which was a big damn deal for a team like the North Stars back then) and then joining Holland’s powerhouse Wings as they taxied for takeoff.
But as far as player-types go, he was actually an agitator and a damn good one, because he could score. Not too many agitators around with the kind of sweet mitts and lightning release like Dino had.
Back when we were kids and closing our eyes throwing hockey sticks to determine teams most all of us wanted to be Oiler players (being from Branford), specifically Gretzky. My one childhood friend always loved the North Stars and had to be Dino Ciccarelli. He was a good player, and the sound of his hockey card in my bicycle spokes was truly that of an agitator. Good memories!
We haven’t had many Russians make a impact over the history of the franchise. I loved Boris Mironov and Igor Ulanov had his moments when they patrolled the back-end for us and I do miss the hip checks. Sergei Samonov had some damn fine play in the short time he was here. Up front Yak scored one of the most memorable regular season Goals on Quick and this L.A team. Anotoli Semenov scored a couple of huge Goals in the Playoffs 33 years ago. Kostin may of saved the season for us.
Some fans AND the media are driving this narrative that the top guys aren’t producing.
Spector started a question to Hyman with, “When the top guys aren’t producing…” Hyman reminded Spec that Leon is producing. He’s co-leader in NHL playoff points in fact.
Someone should tune Hyman in. I mean that doesn’t fit at all in specs already completed story. Insert leading question quote here. Get with the program Hyman.
Well I gotta give spec credit:
He heard Hyman and woody. Large add on about drai in back half.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/the-ultimate-team-game-oilers-depth-steps-up-in-game-2-victory/
Know what’s cool? We still have the Drai and McD super line bullet in the chamber.
Helluva series so far!
The Oilers have largely dominated the play 5v5.
-Drai looking like a man possessed! Love him.
-McD will eventually start scoring. He is getting chances.
-I would like to see more from RNH. He has made some BRUTAL giveaways in the neutral zone.
The primary reason this series is not 2-0 Oilers are lazy momentum killing penalties. The Oilers need to cut back on the dumb dumb stick infractions. Drai, Kane, and Bouch have been nabbed for multiple stick infractions. Needs to stop.
I logged in briefly at the end of the second period last night and this board was rife with pessimism and criticism. It was hard to believe the score was tied with a period to go. The mood was more reminiscent of Hitler’s bunker.
The Kings are a tough matchup for the Oilers. The things they do very well are the things the Oilers don’t want to do. They force the play to the boards exceptionally well with that damn 131 and then they absolutely dominate on the cycle game and contested pucks. Lots of gritty forwards with great battle level on that roster.
They’re starting to remind me of the Flames in the 80s which is a good thing oddly enough. Those Calgary teams forced our Oilers into battle mode early in the playoffs and once you got through them, it almost felt like a cakewalk to the Final.
What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger (said no helicopter parent ever). This team is going to be stronger after The Battle of Los Angeles (callback to Rage Against the Machine!). Go Oil!
The pessimism is strange. IMO, the Oilers have been dominating the play. A few sloppy plays have made the series appear much closer than it has been. Of course, a few sloppy plays can lose you a series.
To me it’s a reflection of the bipolar and polarized nature of what the Internet has become.
This board is at its best when folks have had a chance to sleep on it and reflect with some clarity and nuance. In the heat of battle with the blood up, it’s more of a domestic disturbance call, although that certainly has its own entertainment value particularly when the boys are playing Calgary.
Cue the theme from Cops.
Why wouldn’t fans be pessimistic after the second period? They’re fans. And game two looked a lot like game one after the second period – utter domination and single moments make it a 2-2 game. I wasn’t reading the comments so I don’t know the nature of them, but I was certainly pessimistic after the second.
Because aside from a couple gaffes the Oilers were dominating play and the shot clock They posted 12 shots before the Kings had 1. And the score was tied!
By all means, squeal like weiners on the bbq when they’re losing badly, but when the game is tied and the team playing pretty well? That is fans expecting perfection against a difficult opponent.
But the same thing happened the game before – we dominated and still lost the game. It seems perfectly reasonable to be pessimistic. The best team doesn’t always win. Unless people were saying the team was playing poorly, pessimism seems perfectly reasonable.
I think you’ve summed up the pessimistic perspective succinctly. “Something bad happened once before, so we should probably expect that again.”
I wouldn’t enjoy watching this run in that way, but if it seems reasonable, you do you. The nice thing about ‘glass half empty’ is you’re rarely disappointed.
This a strange take that feels like Monday morning quarterback for emotions.
For me, and probably most, it’s precisely BECAUSE they were dominating games 1 and 2 yet losing game 1 and now tied in game 2 going into the third that fans were nervous and upset. Yes, it was still most probable that they would win the game, but not highly probable due to the nature of luck/bounces. Anything can happen in a tie game going into the third independent of team ability. The less time left, the more luck has a chance to play an outsized role in the outcome.
I thought the Kings were pretty fortunate to get the two goals they did in this game. The Oilers deserved to win the game through and through, but could the Kings be three times lucky in the third sending the Oilers to another tragic loss despite a great game effort? Absolutely, and it happens all the time.
Lady luck went to bed early, so the game was ultimately decided on merit, and I was thankful for that.
But I was nervous for them in the third.
Being nervous is completely understandable.
No doubt
And Rage Against the Machine was calling back an earlier incident during WW2 when the anti aircraft defence around LA shot at a bunch of UFO’s
Cool band but they lost their street cred with the ticket prices and cancellations on their reunion tour imo.
Great post and follow-up discussion. I completely agree with you here BoP. After the first game I had none of the usual sense of doom despite my DOD training. The oilers only lost the score, not the game. After the tie last night it seemed like Woodie had trained me, like his players, to not panic. The two goals against were weak, for different reasons, but certainly did not reflect the game, which I felt was not in danger. The longer the track the more likely this team will win, im(seldom)ho.
Skinner so far has been just ok. He has an .898 after 2 games which may not be good enough to win this series if he doesn’t improve. Korpisalo is at .921 and giving the Kings a a significant advantage so far. The backhand goal by Kemp in game one was weak and the 2nd goal last night was not good. Hopefully Skinner can settle down a bit and improve as the playoffs go on. Considering this is his first playoffs I think he is hanging in there but the Oilers will need Good goaltending not OK goaltending if they are going to advance.
Leon is in beast mode right now but he still needs to play smarter and not worry about the cheap stuff. That first penalty he took last night was about as dumb of a penalty as one can take. The fly by on the Kings first goal shows that he still has a bit of maturing to do.
Kostin played 7:41 last night scored the winner and frankly saved the Oilers bacon. Other guys like Nuge, Hyman, McLeod need to step up their game. Nuge especially has a track record of disappearing in the playoffs with the exception of a few good games. If Nuge continues to struggle I might move him back to centre.
Bouchard has been excellent so far considering he is playing a ton of minutes. There will always be a few wobbly moments but overall he has elevated his game to another level.
It looks like the Oilers will be able to control most of the play 5 on 5. It may just come down to goaltending in this series.
Goaltending has been weird in this series. I think Skinner should have saved both GA last night, but then he made some big saves throughout where we wouldn’t have faulted him for letting one in.
Korpisalo turns into 1995 Martin Brodeur with the Oilers up 2-0 and the psychological effect that has on both teams is notable. If that Kostin goal goes in on an Oilers goalie though we would be googling rocket charters to the sun.
That shot was a rocket. On the broadcast they said it was almost 90 mph. Usually only slap shots get up to that velocity. Kostin got lucky using the Dman as a screen also. It was not a bad goal. Most of the time when players try that shot it hits the defence man’s shin pad and goes wide. He got lucky and it went through his legs.
I love Ryan and Kostin but it’s a bad look when Draisaitl seems more effective with them than with his regular wingers.
D has been overall very solid, some wobble from Bouchard and Desharnais yes.
Wingers need to get going.
He’s playing Kopitar when he’s with Kane and Yama. Big difference.
Oh I’m not talking about Drai being ineffective 😀
https://theathletic.com/4431882/2023/04/20/leon-draisaitl-oilers-kings/
Draisaitl 3rd player in history to score 60 playoff points in 38 games or fewer (Gretzky, Lemieux)
“Some players are all hat and no cattle this time of year.”
I literally laughed out loud when I read this! lol I haven’t heard anyone say this in probably 25 years but my gramps and his old buddies would say this with scorn.
Scary game last night but it was good to see the guys answer the bell. Having a great team on paper is fine and dandy but you need games like this to galvanize the players. In gut check time the guys found a way to get ahead and stay ahead. We’re going to need everyone onboard to see this through and last night was a great team win that we needed to build trust and belief.
This series wouldn’t be even close if not for their goalie. He’s hot but we’ve found a way. He won’t be able to withstand the onslaught of chances we’re getting much longer, though. Keep plugging away and we’ll eventually break this guy.
Bunch clench per 60 in last 10 minutes:
Immeasurably constant.
Interesting data point.
The L.A. Kings have not led on the scoreboard for longer than 1 second so far this series.
The Lumley story reminded me of one I heard from another old Oiler tough guy….I want to say Dave Brown? He took a 5 minute major in Hartford and had to hear the Brass Bonanza 4 times while he was in the box. Said he couldn’t stand the song ever since.
I don’t know how anyone could defend that 2nd goal allowed by Skinner. Give me a break.
Well the refrain last night was that he didn’t seal off the post on either goal. Yet neither goal went in between his skate and post.
The first went over his pad, on Danault’s 3rd shot attempt coming across the net.
The second somehow went over his skate blade that was sealed to the post. Sure that ‘can’t go in’, but there was a healthy dose of luck in that somehow squeezing through even though Skinner’s leg and skate were exactly where they should have been.
If Skinner was the personality type, he would’ve smashed his stick on the crossbar after that one.
Thankfully for us and the Oilers’ goalie stick budget – he’s not from that mold.
Awful, awful, AWFUL GA that I’m sure he absolutely hated. Hopefully working on the down low stuff in practice. He’s had issues with the “shoot it into his feet from close” play all year. One of the only things he’s consistently struggled with.
Skinner has been unlucky, more than bad.
Same with Desharnais.
Bad luck is how rookies get tested by the gods.
This is exactly what I was thinking on the 2nd GA…Compounded rookie plays between Desi and Skinner…both guys are earning tons of XP and levelling up fast.
When our favourite players don’t make the play it’s unlucky…..
One thing that I’m looking forward to with the series going to LA is not hearing Doughty get booed every time he touches the puck.
Some poster or two already questioned why the Edmonton fans boo him, as it only inspires him. I concur. I think on the telecast last night, they said one of his teammates said Doughty likes it.
I mean, in basketball, if you’re taking foul shots and the opposing fans boo you and shake stuff in your field of view, that’s detrimental. I don’t think Edmonton fans are helping the cause by booing Doughty. If I was him, I’d be thinking, “Hey, I’m a somebody! I’m important because they’re booing me!” I’d try extra hard to tick the fans off even more. My feelings would only be hurt and my performance negatively impacted if my home fans booed me. Now that would suck. (In stand-up comedian voice…) If the Edmonton fans really want to be productive, they should laugh mockingly at Doughty. Touch the puck. “Haha!” Make a nice move. “Haha!” Lay a great bodycheck. “Haha!” That would mess with my brain.
Boooooo Doughty. Spit.
I think no matter how Dought actually feels about it, he would just say he likes it because what’s the alternative? If he hated it, it’s not like he or his teammates would admit it.
He also made it seem like he would “smack McDavid around”, but I haven’t really seen that either, except for that one time Doughty finished his check on McDavid a bit late.
Doughty just likes to talk.
The end of an era in baseball history is approaching.
The Oakland A’s have announced they have purchased a plot of land in Las Vegas to build a retractable roof stadium.
Just saw a tweet noting that of the statistically best performing economic regions in the last 40 years has slowly watched all of its pro team sans the Sharks move away.
A fascinating failure in so many ways.
Some very real socio-economic forces at work in the Bay Area.
Vegas has gone from a town with no teams to a place that soon (2027 projected) will have a sports district boasting three state of the art buildings.
One could potentially make an October trip and see a MLB, NFL and NHL game all in one weekend.
And it appears LeBron wants to own a Vegas NBA franchise.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/basketball/nba-commissioner-addresses-expansion-in-las-vegas-2664806/
The Phoenix monopoly is set to be broken.
Of course leaving aside L.A. which only very recently got its NFL teams back…
Because they don’t want to build rich owners new stadiums?
How dare they not ascribe to the corporate welfare system!
It’s a brilliant place for sports franchises honestly.
When I used to work down south in obscure different versions of not a holiday destination, only last minute would I know when leaving. Like job done – run home now.
Closest to home you can nearly guarantee you can get late last minute
Vegas…might even be a chance to hop on a super late direct flight from there.
I literally used to say “all airports lead to vegas”
Cheapest place to get to. Away team fans always filling empty seats.
Damn…..
I thought the Oilers played well again last night. They are clearly the better team so far in this series. Has it been reflected in the scorelines? Nope. Will it? Maybe.
Before this series began, my friends and I were talking. We agreed that the only way LA can get anything is to grind and drag the game down into the mud. Broken plays, scrums, antagonization. Because while they do have a couple of players that can wheel, they simply cannot get into a run-and-gun game with EDM.
I saw EDM tweaks last night as slightly different angles skated, creating a little more space and leaving Korpisalo a little more exposed. I expect this to be refined even more next game.
This team wants to win. LA want to be the spoiler. I think we’ll get there as long as we keep our foots to the floor.
I screwed spelling up, on last night’s end of thread but in case you missed it:
Here’s hoping you get your wish for “there was something in the air last night”
would be a great new addition to the “out of nowhere on a great run a legend was born”
Klimando kostani
(I think I will go to the end of my days amalgamating any unlikely playoff hero like this.)
I think the chatter about McDavid is just a result of bad luck. He should have potted a couple goals by now, based on the sheer amount of chances he is generating, at least.
I’m betting it’ll come. The Kings and Korpisalo can only break lucky so many times. And if McDavid’s shots start to go in, mixed with how Draisaitl is playing, the outlook should be a good one.
He only got 6 shots, was dangerous and solidly owned 5×5….playing hardest matchups and being clearly keyed in on to absurd level.
Box score cowboys: “he only got one assist and it was on a powerplay. He should have at least 2 points in pp. He must be hurt. He looks like shit.”
.
You’re right.
Mcdavid:
Scoring Chances For per 60: 40.07
Scoring Chances Against per 60: 21.71
xGF/60: 4.01
xGA/60: 1.82
On Ice SH%: 0%
On Ice SV%: 84.62%
PDO: 0.846
Draisaitl:
Scoring Chances For per 60: 44.23
Scoring Chances Against per 60: 31.84
xGF/60: 3.96
xGA/60: 2.77
On Ice SH%: 16%
On Ice SV%: 89.47%
PDO: 1.055
Danault:
Scoring Chances For per 60: 17.18
Scoring Chances Against per 60: 39.52
xGF/60: 1.43
xGA/60: 4.02
On Ice SH%: 9.09
On Ice SV%: 100.00%
PDO: 1.091
PDO it’s a thing report
——
All game state: 0.886
Even strength: 0.862
Makes it easy to see who actually really watches game closely IMO.
Edit* yeah what moose said with way greater detail before I finished my patheticly condensed version lol.
oh good, PDO over 2 games, that’s a great sample size. I think it’s fair comment to say McDavid doesn’t look his usual level, particularly compared to last year’s playoffs. He’s going to tilt the ice regardless, but by eye, he seems off. And I would argue he’s seemed a bit off over the last couple of weeks, not just the playoffs.
Better in Game 2 than Game 1 though.
Not just PDO insanely tilted PDO to laughably extreme outlier level.
Matches eye. Like that 2 on 1 with janmark exclamation points it. To insane level game plan is mcdavid on ice all hands on mcdeck.
So yeah, might take a couple games for mcmonster to adapt. In meantime drai is feasting.
Comparing last years rates versus this years rates:
2022 2023
SF/60: 43.61 39.38
SA/60: 39.38 21.71
XGF/60: 4.38 3.06
XGA/60: 3.06 1.82
FF/60: 57.79 51.76
FA/60: 52.71 35.06
PDO: 1.059 .846
While I agree that his line as a whole has created fewer of the grade A chances than I’m used to, I expect that we won’t be talking about this in a week’s time. The offense will come, and I expect it will come soon.
We need to get into his grill. He is seeing a beach ball at this moment.
If mcdavid remembers his look pass snipe move:
I can think of enough moments even just 1st game he might have snuck one.
Then its up 2-0 in series and nary a “mcdavid looks hurt” would be heard.
I’m probably bias, but I think this is the best series in the playoffs so far. 200 hits in 2 games!!! It’s a war out there!
I was keen to see LT’s review of Hyman today. I felt he really helped progress (not take over) the 3rd period for the home team. He made one heck of a good play with about 5 minutes left that got the puck out with imminent danger lurking.
LT’s updated Pisani post-it note:
JanmarkFoegele
Klostin?
The Oilers have played 2 good games in this series. The only thing that has slowed them down is dumb penalties. The games have been identical. Oilers dominate until killing penalty after penalty kills their momentum and they become passive. They seem to get into a defending rut and have a hard time getting back to pushing the play. For God’s sake, just stay away from the stupid offensive and neutral zone penalties. Seems like a simple enough recipe.
Random thought, but Brett Kulak is playing his best hockey of the season. I think it’s because he is correctly slotted and correctly paired. He is a very good 3rd pairing dman who can handle some 2nd pairing matchups, but not a steady dose of them. He also has a big, physical, defense first partner. Kulak can struggle with some physical battles in his own end, but that is a strength of Desharnais. It allows Kulak to do what he does best, which is skate the puck out of trouble, and into the other teams zone. He has been noticeably good at it in this series.
Agree on Kulak. It was a risky decision to go into the season relying on Kulak to be 2LD, but he is playing some real good hockey as 3LD. And good on the coaches for recognizing that he needed a partner like Desharnais.
I’m leading the parade in the “the Oilers have only played two proper periods out of 6” camp.
And there’s an issue with “eventually”. Eventually doesn’t come in the playoffs. If you’re relying on eventually, you’ll be on the golf course when you find it.
McDavid needs to adjust his game and execute. Quantity ain’t going to do it. I’m hearing many commentators act like it is normal for Phillip Danault to shut down someone who is doing top-5-ever things. It isn’t. 99 and 66 and 4 and that crew weren’t in the habit of being shut down by the guy across from them.
This is a nice “shooter mentality,” rant. Its a rant about nothing, pointing to nothing but yelling DO MOAR!
Look at the numbers bud. Its a laugher 80% of the time 97 steps on the ice. The flip here is that you are hugely impressed by Danault succeeding at less than a 30% clip.
Its impressive mental gymnastics to blame McDavid for sucking when its Danault getting outworked shift after shift after shift.
Kostin reminds me of Raffi Torres (in a good way!)
And am I the only one that sometimes mistakes Foegele for McDavid??
Never been more delighted in the bottom six.
Once or twiced 🙂
He reminds me of Tikkanen, and no you are not the only one.
Hanarayan Singh did it last night so you are definitely not the only one
I can’t believe how much Foegeles skating has improved. He’s flying out there.
Dude, I totally agree with you that Foegele is like a poor man’s McDavid. Their numbers are even similiar, as well as style.
Kings are as good as anyone (except Boston) to my eye we have controlled long, long portions of these two games.
I have no idea how you could conclude that about the Kings.
Neither by roster composition nor season results.
I disagree. In both games the Oilers carried the play for the majority of the game — heck, it took them 18 minutes to register their first shot on goal last night.
I find myself checking out Natural Stat Trick throughout the game if only to remind myself that the Oilers are in fact playing very well, that their fundamental game is solid and that the results are flattering to the Kings overall.
It’s hard not to see your team as playing poorly when the emotions are so high — and honestly, it would have been nearly impossible to continue to dominate the Kings like the Oilers did in the first for any length of time.
I harp on the Oilers and national broadcasts — I think Sportsnet knows very well they have a captive audience, and that they don’t have to put any sort of budget or effort into improving the quality of their product — but Canadian fans are simply not being served well.
I don’t expect a deep dive into analytics, but some talk about the tactics being employed by the coaches, how LA adjusted going into the second period, and that the Oilers are in fact carrying play overall would really be beneficial.
Right now Kevin Bieksa is the only one who adds anything of value to the conversation — his story in the first game about taking an idiotic penalty that cost them the game against the Blackhawks because he was desperate to win a one on one battle against Sharp was entertaining, insightful and relevant.
I really wish they would give him and other talented commentators more reign to add some innovation to the broadcast — if only a little.
Wonderful post.
I’m not sure if it’s my television or the broadcast levels, but when Hanryhan (sp) and Louie speak, all I’m hearing is a monotone drone usually drowned out by crowd and music noise. Neither of them generate the excitement of Jack Michaels in their voices and it really puts a damper on the game. Just feels like watching the game with no announcers, which maybe isn’t a bad thing . . .
I actually kind of like that combo. Instead of jack screaming about his favourite def leopard song to eat pizza to in high-school… or whatever: Louie actually has time for better insight. I find his colour much more interesting in less erratic airspace.
I’m not a Jack Michaels fan — I feel like I’m getting yelled at for three hours and it can become grating quickly. Harnarayan Singh is fine — the primary issue is that he relies on the colour commentator in term of building the narrative in the game.
Again, maybe I’m not being fair, but I find DeBrusk to be the equivalent of the interviewed player telling us they “have to get pucks deep, play our game, and good things will happen.”
The answer to any team, any tactic, any challenge is always the same. Get pucks deep. Get traffic in front of the net. Try harder than the other team.
He was a player who relied on skating north and south, initiating contact, and getting to the front of the net and praying something good happens.
Compare him to say Mike Johnson — not the most talented player, but one who relied on smarts as much as effort to be successful. It shows in the quality of their commentary and insight.
You will often learn something new listening to Johnson, or Ferraro. Not so with DeBrusk or even Simpson on Sportsnet.
And it’s a shame.
Maybe we need to let kings start with lead so bettman can greenlight calling penalties on them.
I’d be sending that face punch in. That was absurd.
On the US TNT broadcasts, they sometimes have graphics showing who is on the ice at the top of the screen.
For a more seasoned Canadian audience, you could just put their jersey numbers above the team names, so you could see the line changes happen. As shifts get long, the players number could go from yellow to red or something similar.
I like the slap shot velocity but show me every shots velocity, not just the ones over 85MPH. I want to see the 40 MPH muffins too!
The US broadcasts are better than the Canadian ones now. They are so afraid to change. I know they had some “stats” broadcasts in the regular season but they could make subtle changes that would add so much to the watching experience.
As for Singh, he is just such a vanilla announcer 95% of the time. I wish he’d show
more personality, and never say “fantabulous” on live TV ever again. Cringe central. I did like a reference to someone “stealing a samosa”
in G1. More of that please!
Agreed that Singh should allow his personality to show more often — his samosa reference made me laugh out loud, it was great.
The Oilers aren’t playing bad. The Kings are playing well. Sometimes you lose games you should have won. Sometimes you win games you should have lost. That’s hockey. That’s life.
What’s clear is that the Oilers are dominating the Kings. But much is random luck in this sport. Enjoy the uncertainty, as you say, LT.
The Oilers I expect will play (even) better on the road. High expectations leads to high pressure. Getting down to LA will be good for the boys.
McDavid is ready to pop. Penalties given will hopefully regress to the mean.
LT – your comment about pushback on your tweet and fans who are all negative – reminds me of the Esposito interview in the ’72 Summit series.
Fans were “not happy” with Canada getting beat and were booing in the games as I recall. Phil said something to the effect that “we are all working our hearts out for you fans” – not a direct quote but you get the idea!
I don’t see “lack of compete” in these guys. They are playing hard in an incredibly fast paced game.
All that said there is nothing I like more than a good ole’ “AKR” andAss Kicking and a Runaway – as my brother and I used to say in the old days! I sure would enjoy me some Oilers 8-1 romps!
Remember that Oiler-Blackhawk series way back when? Games were 10-2 win, then 8-3 loss, then another huge scoring game – wild!
Point is though you are correct – we need to enjoy these games as they happen!