Game Four 2023 Playoffs: Oilers at Kings

Al Arbour was a great coach, led the New York Islanders from rock bottom to four Stanleys in a row as part of a brilliant tandem with general manager Bill Torrey. Arbour said a lot of smart things, among them “there is a hump you have to get over, and it usually comes in the first series. You get over the hump and you’re on a roll.” Edmonton Oilers, meet hump.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
• New DNB: Oilers need secondary scoring to get back into series
• DNB: Oilers question OT review decision. Their penalty issues are a bigger concern
• Lowetide: Key early Oilers vs. Kings matchups that are impacting the series
• DNB: Stuart Skinner can still step up as a difference-maker in his first NHL playoff series
• Lowetide: Oilers’ quality of ‘next man up’ could be key to deep playoff run
• DNB: Klim Kostin relishes playoff atmosphere in role that could swing a series
• DNB: Oilers’ playoff excitement, expectations have already given way to Game 1 pain again
• Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
• DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
• Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be the Oilers first Calder winner
• New DNB: Stuart Skinner Q and A
• Lowetide: Oilers transcend reasonable expectations in 2022-23, led by Connor McDavid
• Lowetide: Who could be the Oilers’ playoff Fernando Pisani this year?
• DNB: Oilers ready for a playoff rematch with Avalanche
• DNB: Top seed in West and ‘momentum’ for playoffs
• Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
• Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

A BLAST

Yesterday, I spent four hours at Transit Smokehouse and BBQ, eating great food (it is outstanding) and enjoying the company of fellow authors Bob Layton and Shane Blakely. All three of us were delighted to have so many stop by, and I have to say it was a very enjoyable experience. I was touched by so many of you who extended your condolences about Jo-Anne, and how many of you took time to tell me how much you enjoyed Lowetide and Jamieson, the work at The Athletic and this blog. You all made an old guy feel damn good about himself. I want to thank Bob and Shane for including me in the project and will tell you there are plans to do another in the months to come. In the mean time, if you get a chance to hit Transit Smokehouse, make sure you do. I had the sliders and cole slaw and was so blown away by how tasty it was (try the Alberta sauce on the sliders, so good) I may have forgotten I was eating in public. It might have been a bad visual for Lowetide!

CALL AND RESPONSE

In 1972, the New York Islanders went to the expansion draft and picked Billy Smith and a whole lot of nothing else. However, general manager Bill Torrey and his scouting director Jim Devellano built the team brick by brick through the entry draft and hiring brilliant coach Al Arbour. The six-year cluster that began in 1972 delivered enormous talent to the team.

• 1972: Billy Harris (897), Bob Nystrom (900), Garry Howatt (720), Lorne Henning (543)
• 1973: Denis Potvin (1060), Dave Lewis (1008), Andre St. Laurent (644), Bob Lorimer (529)
• 1974: Bryan Trottier (1279), Clark Gillies (958), Stefan Persson (622), Dave Langevin (513)
• 1975: Pat Price (726)
• 1976: Ken Morrow (550)
• 1977: Mike Bossy (752), John Tonelli (1028)

This is an exceptional run, even considering New York was drafting high in the first three seasons. Still, Bossy at No. 15 overall is an all-time steal. The team improved quickly. In 1972-73 the club went 12-60-6, but would post a 42-21-17 record just three years later. The Islanders missed the playoffs in the first two seasons, and then became a legit Stanley Cup contender. Here are the first 10 playoff runs for the Islanders. Remember, they were good by 1975 spring, and absolutely a strong contender for the Stanley by 1976.

• 1975: Beat the Rangers (massive story); beat the Penguins (lost three, then won four, first time since 1942), lost to the Flyers in the semi-finals (lost three, won three, then lost G7).
• 1976: Beat the Canucks, beat the Sabres, lost 4-1 to the Montreal Canadiens in the semifinals.
• 1977: Bear the ‘Hawks, beat the Sabres, lost 4-2 to the Montreal Canadiens in the semifinals.
• 1978: Lost to the Maple Leafs 4-3, the most crushing defeat in this run iirc
• 1979: Beat the ‘Hawks, lost to the Rangers 4-3 in another devastating loss.
• 1980: Won Stanley Cup
• 1981: Won Stanley Cup
• 1982: Won Stanley Cup
• 1983: Won Stanley Cup
• 1984: Beat the Rangers, beat the Capitals, beat the Canadiens, lost 4-1 to the Edmonton Oilers in the finals.

In that period leading up to the first Stanley, the Islanders were viewed as the team that couldn’t get over the hump. Losing to the Maple Leafs was the nadir, losing to the Rangers in 1979 (Islanders had so much talent that season) could have ripped the team apart.

What did Torrey do? He kept Devellano, kept Arbour, moved some pieces (famously the trade of Harris and Lewis for Butch Goring at the 1980 deadline) and finally won it all. Then did it three more times just to prove the point.

THE CURRENT OILERS

This Edmonton team is having a tough time with the Los Angeles Kings, and I think fans are having the same difficulty. It’s easy to blame the goaltender (you should not) or the officials (they have been a factor but Edmonton has shown a lack of discipline) or the top-end talent (you would be wrongheaded to blame them, honestly) but the Kings are a tough out for the Oilers.

It’s possible the Oilers will not win this series. The following paragraphs are me preparing you for something that might happen, although it’s still my belief Edmonton has more than enough to overcome the Kings.

Why do these things happen? Peter Chiarelli once said “the margins are so small” when comparing two teams like these. It took one forever to overtake LA in the standings, and Todd McLellan has a gameplan that is working up until now. We’re about halfway through the series, and the five-on-five numbers are telling. Here are the centers, and goal shares, using them as proxy for each line.

• Connor McDavid 0-2
• Leon Draisaitl: 4-1
• 97 and 29: 0-1
• Nick Bjugstad 0-0
• Ryan McLeod 0-0
• The rest 0-0

I will never bet against Connor McDavid in a hockey game. I believe Jay Woodcroft is smarter than Todd McLellan. I know this Oilers team is better than the Kings. I know the Oilers are playing the Kings game. I know the Oilers lack discipline. I know intercepted passes meant for Oilers will result in odd man rushes. I know the Kings will get penalties called on borderline plays.

I believe whoever wins tonight will take the series. I have been running this blog for 20 years, watching the Oilers for over 50 and watching hockey for as long as I can remember. I wish I could tell you the Oilers will win tonight, but can only tell you that they should and they can.

I expect Jay Woodcroft will do something innovative, expect that if the Oilers get up 2-0 again all hands will try their best to stay out of the box and to have their heads on a swivel. The Islanders were devastated in consecutive springs against Toronto and then the Rangers, before plowing the hockey world for damn near half a decade.

Keep the faith. Cheer like mad. Know that a loss means some trolls will talk about McDavid wanting out, and some will rage over what might have been with a stronger procurement record 2015+. Know that tomorrow, while not what you hoped, we may speak of other things.