It’s been days of steady talking about this series, with the Edmonton Oilers a slight favourite (or more) but none of that means a thing. This is going to be a battle on all levels. The Los Angeles Kings were physical, played at the edge and beyond, and waited for two or three difference makers to score. Vegas? They have more skill, a stronger defense and we’ll see about the goaltending. I’m picking the Oilers in seven games.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 6 keys to Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft’s playoff success
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combo is the ultimate luxury: ‘It’s magic’
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers beat the Kings — and can beat the Golden Knights
- Lowetide: 6 biggest AHL Bakersfield Condors stories from 2022-23 season
- DNB: Oilers move on to Round 2 after Kailer Yamamoto’s goal rescues them from Stuart Skinner’s blooper
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway’s future NHL role?
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto playing his final games for Edmonton?
- DNB: Oilers’ Game 5 win had Jay Woodcroft’s coaching instincts all over it
- Lowetide: Oilers should stay the course no matter what happens against Kings
- DNB: How Zach Hyman capped Oilers’ season-saving comeback
- Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: Oilers need secondary scoring to get back into series
- Lowetide: Key early Oilers vs. Kings matchups that are impacting the series
- DNB: Oilers’ playoff excitement, expectations have already given way to Game 1 pain again
- Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
- DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
OILERS PLAYOFF ROSTER
These are not lines and pairings, just placing the roster in approximate depth chart order without knowing if 97-29 will run in the middle against the Golden Knights. My belief is Jay Woodcroft will run Nuge-McDavid-Hyman (17-8 shots at even strength); Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto (13-10 shots); Foegele-McLeod-Ryan (26-7 shots); Kostin-Bjugstad-Janmark (3-1 shots). Defensive pairings should remain the same, Skinner starts.
THE PLAYOFF RECALLS
When I followed baseball, I would anticipate the September recalls for maybe two weeks. Nerd, yes, but it also offered insight into the way an organization was thinking. The first-year players (Xavier Bourgault, Noah Philp, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie) aren’t here, but the rest of the group is about right. Small surprise about Philp, in my opinion, he’s an older prospect but it’s not like he is going to slide into the lineup. I do think Dylan Holloway has a chance to play this spring. The other recalls are going to need one or more injuries to get in.
THROUGH THE PAST, DARKLY
Do you ever wonder if the playoff recalls end up playing on the big club down the line? Here are some HS recalls from playoff runs of the past. I think we may see more before this run is over. Some on this list (Jussi Markkanen as an example) went from HS to a big part of the team, while others (Joey Laleggia) would never play in the NHL.
- 2006 playoffs: Todd Harvey, Kyle Brodziak, Dick Tarnstrom, Brad Winchester, Jussi Markkanen, J-F Jacques, Toby Petersen, Igor Ulanov. Marc Pouliot injured.
- 2017 playoffs: Mark Fayne, Griffin Reinhart, Matt Hendricks, Iiro Pakarinen, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Lander, Eric Gryba, Jordan Oesterle, Joey Laleggia, Nick Ellis
- 2022 playoffs: Carter Savoie, Kris Russell, Devin Shore, Derick Brassard, Seth Griffith, Brad Malone, Dylan Holloway, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Philip Broberg, Olivier Rodrigue, Stuart Skinner.
Last year, Dylan Holloway played in his first NHL game during the playoffs. It’s unusual, but there are several men who didn’t play during the regular year and then got into some postseason action.
- 1981-82 Randy Gregg 4 games, 0-2-2
- 1982-83 Ray Cote 14 games, 3-2-5
- 1983-84 Larry Melnyk 6 games, 0-1-1
- 1984-85 Esa Tikkanen 3 games, 0-0-0
- 1985-86 Jeff Beukeboom 1 game, 0-0-0
- 1986-87 Kelly Buchberger 3 games, 0-0-0
- 1989-90 Anatoli Semenov 2 games, 0-0-0
- 1996-97 Bryan Muir 5 games, 0-0-0
- 2000-01 Josh Green 3 games, 0-0-0
- 2005-06 Toby Petersen 2 games, 1-0-1
- 2016-17 Griffin Reinhart 1 game, 0-1-1
- 2021-22 Dylan Holloway 1 game, 0-0-0
THE DEFENSE
As the series begins against Vegas, we know that Cody Ceci has been faded a little by the coaching staff. His primary defensive partner (Darnell Nurse) is averaging 2:20 more per game at five-on-five in these playoffs. Here are the minutes-per-game and expected goals of each Oilers blue at five-on-five.
- Darnell Nurse 19:45 (51.9)
- Evan Bouchard 18:48 (50.9)
- Mattias Ekholm 18:22 (51.9)
- Cody Ceci 17:14 (44.3)
- Brett Kulak 14:25 (71.8)
- Vincent Desharnais 12:03 (62.8)
- Philip Broberg 5:52 (63.4)
If Ceci falters and is unable to continue inside the top-four defense, it would seem Brett Kulak would be next up. It would be a shame, since he’s doing so well in his current role. Here are the most common pairings and their results through the first round against the Kings. All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick.
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 99 minutes, 4-3 goals, 51.4 X-goals, 56 pct shot share.
- Nurse-Ceci: 82 minutes, 5-2 goals, 45.8 X-goals, 45 pct shot share.
- Kulak-Desharnais: 60 minutes, 2-2 goals, 73.8 X-goals, 65 pct shot share.
- Nurse-Broberg: 14 minutes, 2-1 goals, 70.4 X-goals, 44 pct shot share.
- Nurse-Kulak: 9 minutes, no goals, 78.3 X-goals, 64 pct shot share.
I think that Nurse-Kulak combination may see more than nine minutes during the VGK series. Edmonton must have two pairings they can roll out during the heart of the game.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’ll be a big day of Oilers talk, 10-2 TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us, we’ll chat about last night’s series openers, NBA playoffs and the Elks drafting (they did well) at the 2023 CFL selection. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Disappointing result … but honestly was completely what I expected to happen tonight. Everyone remembers Game 1 against the Flames last season. By comparison, the Oilers weren’t nearly as bad tonight.
The Knights depth is going to be tough. I’m looking at the TOI.
They don’t really have a third pair that they hide. At 5v5, there’s McNab playing 17:37 (most) and Whitecloud 14:49 (least). Even at forward, they’re almost rolling 4 lines with home ice advantage.
Contrast that with the Oilers and have Ekholm 18:18 to Desharnais 6:16.
Desharnais got lit up for 2 goals in 6:16. Think about that. That’s one hell of a weak link. Not trading for a veteran 3rd was a big mistake by Holland and Woodcroft. JP and I were talking the importance of this at the deadline and everyone was saying what about Desharnais.
Woodcroft also has blinders on Yamamoto whom he still plays too much.
Hopefully we can find a way to make some adjustments.
Trading for a vet 3rd at the time was an obvious move. Except the issue with cap space. Yamo, Kulak or Foegele would have had to be dealt either to get the RD or in a separate move. That may have been attempted but with no suitor on the other side of the deal. Or the team potentially didn’t want to rob from one area to help another. We’ll never know, but with the way both Vinny and Ceci are playing right now, RD could sure use some cover.
Classic case of everybody has a plan until you get punched in the face.
The post mortem is over at Natural Stat Trick.
Kostin, Desharnais, Ceci and Yamamoto got worked both in terms of Fenwick % and goals.
I had mentioned that Vegas’ bottom six forecheck like demons and skate well.
Nuge was ineffectual.
McDavid has one leg.
Draisaitl adds to his mix tape.
Skinner .848
Boys weren’t ready for the Knights tonight. Pretty surprising considering they had all that time off this week.
Did they think every team is scared to play them and will trap at all costs to suppress the two superstars? The Kings were/are a terrible team….no skill and depend on mistakes to score. Of course they’re going to trap to just stay alive in a series against us.
The Knights are proven winners and have been winning ever since getting into the league. Add in Mr. Cassidy behind the bench and I’m not surprised at all they ended up #1 in the West this year.
They took it to us tonight. By the end of the first period you could see scared plays and bad decisions being made by everyone in an Oil jersey. Then we get into our own heads and force things way too much.
McD looked like he HAD to stick handle through 4 guys before he’d shoot at the net. He’s definitely snake-bitten right now, hope those flood gates open soon.
Nuge…you had 100 points this year…sup bro??
Drai…daaaaaang.
Woody…move Kostin up with some skill and bring Hollywood in. It’s time to make some lines and stick with them for a while.
Damn. I thought this series the Oilers were going to make a statement and make quick work of Vegas. Looks like we’re in for a battle now.
Nuclear option is too many eggs in one basket. It’s an emergency measure not SOP. Hyman and RNH are dying on the vine. C’mon Jay, balance and depth.
That includes the 12/6. Vegas can roll 4 lines with pace. Need to counter with same. 7D is a luxury this club can’t afford against a team with proper depth.
Skinner was extremely solid. Draisaitl was Nietzche’s Superman. Shame the club wasted those efforts.
Man did the Knights have active sticks tonight. Going to take a lot of quick puck movement to find the seams in Cassidy’s fortress.
LETS GO GAME 2 BABY
Way more pressure on Vegas tonight. They are the home team.
Oilers young guns had some tough moments. I expect a hot game two.
In 7 playoff games RNH has recorded 1 point.
A very, very lonely assist.
CF : 44%
SF 43%
GF 2 / GA 4
I assume you mean 1 assist 5v5?
Yes
It really is just one game; some people need to come off the ledge. Yeah it sucks, and the Oil got outplayed this game. It’s a series and despite the Oilers pretty much sucking for 2 periods and not getting a ton of shots, they did still manage to pump 4 goals past Brossoit and were never out of it on the scoreboard. Jay has shown he is good at getting the team to adjust, and I expect the Oilers to be much better in the coming games and win the series. This is their pattern.
For next game, the Oilers need to buckle down defensively, continue to hammer Stone and McNabb mercilessly, and not beat themselves. An extra save or two wouldn’t hurt, and Brossoit is no worldbeater. They will get the split.
Let us hope they bring the 3rd period effort from puckdrop.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=30241
Leon and Skinner gave them a chance to tie. The only bright spots.
McD needed to use his teammates more. Too much bruit forcing. Working too much for a sure thing. Shoot more kid!
Separate Leon & McD (depth matters).
D need to employ a safe flip to centre ice with that pressure or hard rim with a forward recognizing the pressure.
Cant play McLeon that much. They were way too gassed. I know, Janmark injury.
No more forcing the play through the neutral zone. Need to reset, ice it, or flip & chase.
Dmen need to stop shooting into traffic (and having the blocked shot go back the other way).
McLeod needs to recognize when he’s in a spot to shoot.
Broissoit is not elite. Shoot on this clown.
I agree with all of this.
But I want the dmen to keep shooting. I just want our forwards to shoot more overall. If McDavid shoots a bit more (and this is a carry over from LA) he’ll use his teammates better.
Shooting creates chaos, the Oilers are quick and good at winning those short range puck battles.
More shots, more battles, more possession, more shots. This is the way.
McLeod Yamamoto Kostin was arguably the best line in game 6 and they broke that up, forcing Yam back against tougher comp with Nuge (2 slighter gents)
Nuge Bjugstad Kane worked in game 5 (less so in game 6) and they broke that up.
If they want to keep running Leon and McDavid, I think those other lines are worth a re-try
Less Vinny, more Broberg
And that 10 min stretch in the 3rd when they played with urgency and shot from everywhere has to be their blueprint
Super human efforts by the Gods…..after that?
Who scares Vegas when the Gods are on the bench?
Whelp. In Woody we trust.
Loading up McDavid / Drai…..
That leaves RNH and Yamamoto – to absolutely get Fed.
Yams- SF 2 / SA 8
RNH – SF 4/ SA 7
Yams GF 0 / GA 2
RNH GF 0 / GA 1
Kane GF 0 / GA 2
RNH or Yams did not even record a shot on goal.
As other coaches have said…..they will take the Oilers loading up 1 Line – all day long.
If we see the same in games 2 and 3, the series is probably over. Woody better get his shit together because Cassidy ate his lunch today.
2 full days off in Vegas
Rest for the injured and practice time – Jay likes to problem solve as our host likes to say
And the players like to give him problems.
Gerta serves one up right down the middle and OmJo hits it out of the park. Post of the evening. I am still laughing.
Where is the real Hyman-Hopkins?
Hyman with 2 primary assists.
Nuge played fine. He played tough second line mins
I’d counter we have yet to see a complete game from Hyman this postseason. Chips in but defense spotty.
I’ll give you Nuge but guy needs to register a shot.
Not a single shot on net from Nuge.
Negative goal differential- again.
It’s just the first game adjustments will be made.
How do you adjust for the other team wanting it more?
It’s not a switch you can turn
Puck management is also not the coaching, it’s so much more about each individual player being smart with the puck & making smart, sound plays.
Coaching is systems, special teams & motivation.
Coaches can not make adjustments to the roster of players they have.
Black Aces don’t make the difference between winning or losing a series
Edmonton has lost 6 straight games ones of course they can adjust.
Darnell Nurse will never win a Cup because no team will ever be able to overcome his presence.
Good quick twitch muscles below the neck. Above the neck … not so much.
I thought they were clearly the better team as the game went on. Vegas can come in fits and starts. They had to take major risks late to try to come back – and almost did.
It wasn’t a great game but I liked their resolve in the 3rd period. Skinner had his moments but maybe make one more save and get this game to OT.
The oilers also have to clean up their mental game on shifts after a goal. The other team is going to come at you – get ready for it. Can’t give up those quick response goals so much. (2x in this game I believe)
Absolutely. After a game tying or leading goal, the name of the game should be conservative play and be ready to counter strike
Yea that was a tough shift for McLeod.
He marked a spot instead of his man coming out from a board battle. Skated right past Barbashev and screened Skinner from up high. Missed a rotation with a dman.
Crap happens, he’ll be watching for it now.
Bouchard got crossed up on the 5-3 goal when he came on. Faded deep and then pulled up in a great screen but did nothing to cutoff the pass or pickup the shooter.
Crap happens, he’ll be watching.
Suct. Looked a little better there through the third. Something to build on.
Vegas played a perfect game coming with an aggressive forecheck that was the polar opposite of what LA threw at them. Oilers took their foot off the gas twice and Vegas made them pay.
That said this was probably the best that Vegas can play … and they barely won. Also, the Oilers never seem to win game 1. This is probably going to be a long stressful series.
Vegas played the game they ALWAYS play. It’s not their perfect game, it’s just the game they play. Like a well oiled machine. You will see the same thing in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th games. EDM better come up with a better plan to get them off their game. Scoring the first goal would be a good start.
Should be quite the series
Woodcroft can chew on what vegas did this game. I think he’ll have some ideas for next game
He should have had some ideas for this game. Vegas didn’t do anything different from what they always do.
Too many solo rushes. He needs to change it up they sit and wait for him and look to take the puck off him.
Seriously you are going to tell
me he didn’t turn the puck over an un godly number of times ..
Too many turnovers all around. Instead of picking them off in the neutral zone, it felt like Vegas was picking them off around the blue line. McDavid was not the problem tonight
Man is Nuge ever ineffective at 5×5. Connor and Leon need to be split up next game.
He’s carrying an injured forward and I presume is tackling hard competition. Can’t expect him to produce a lot in those circumstances. But yea, that second line needs to be reliably getting scoring chances
It’s the Flames series all over again.
Young guys in Vinny, Bouch and McLeod had spots of trouble on goals against.
That’ll clean up.
Thought McDavid had a sloppy game. Feet were moving though.
Seven games in and I’m still waiting for Nuge to do something… anything?
I’m not sure of that comparison, Vegas had way more scoring chances and Skinner is >> Smith. They were able to casually shut down the Oilers when the game got close, unlike the Flames.
I think the Oilers goose is cooked and we’ll find out about McD, Hyman and Nuge’s injuries in about 10 days.
You think the goose is cooked?
Good lord go cheer for Calgary with that loser attitude hahaha
You gathered all that after one game? You’re a better man than I….
I’m shocked at such a dour attitude.
I saw four brainfarts that ended up in the back of the net. Like singular individual brainfarts. All young guys and Nurse on the 2nd.
Very teachable moments, not outworked to an insane degree or giving up on something. Just a costly missed detail. That’s fine, they’ll tighten up as they get used to the speed. We saw it in the 2nd half of the season.
Other than that I thought they played a boring game. But too boring. Liked the speed they brought later on in the 3rd. And a bit more throwing pucks at the net to kick off scrambles. More please!
This will be fun. This is the kind of style you want this Oilers team to be playing.
Last time the Oilers won Game 1, they lost the series. So really, they have the Knights right where they want them.
McDavid can’t push on the left leg. Never ever would’ve been caught there normally. And right before he couldn’t get back on the back check.
Others are going to have to step up. Big time.
Same time, McD has to acknowledge limitations. Gotta use the people around him.
He had two assist and the 3rd assist on another…
I don’t think he’s as hurt as people want him to be. He was all over the puck tonight, had multiple odd mans, and had no problems cutting into or out of his checks.
He’s 89 games into a season. He might be a bit tired which is why the flash isn’t quite there but otherwise. He’s playing fine, albeit a bit sloppy with his passing tonight.
He’s had more Hyman-like tunnel vision moments than we’re used to seeing from. In high risk situations. Otherwise yeah, flyin, but seems he’s doing things the hard way (by himself) more often than is needful.
That said I still expect him to go end to though 4-5 opposing players.
I think part of this is that Kane and Hyman are hurt.
Thats what has forced the shift to loading up Connor and Leon IMO.
I thought he was flying out there- finally had some clean air after LA. Maybe he isn’t 100% but he was dangerous tonight. He was unlucky not to pot one – he’s in a bit of a goal scoring funk but I bet he breaks out soon:
Whelp. Well deserved loss. Outside a couple of players the team (and coach, imo) were not ready for this game. Disappointing, but it is what it is. Hopefully they get their shit together for game two.
7 men on the ice, such stupid shits. Really feel bad for Lean. He deserved better.
Lean-on Draisaitl.
They sure do
Damn. Tough game. Oilers need to find another gear.
Bad game. Too many defensive mistakes and poor execution. Moving on to game two….
Vegas won this game cleanly. Oilers need more than a handful of players.
Was Nuge in the lineup tonight?
20 minutes TOI with not much to show for it. Similar to the LA series. Injured?
Officially milk carton time
Eichel outscores McDavid
First time for everything
Both had 2 points…..?
Can goal horn guy be any less obnoxious?
Now it’s game
shite
Game 1 traditions
Nurse with his latest “I’m not sure what hockey is” moment.
10 forwards and Kostin with a bit more than 9 minutes TOI. WOW.
McD snd Léon were so gassed by the end of this game. Missing Janmark hurt.
…. That’s a penalty?
Oh yea. Definitely. Looks like they mean to end the game the same way they started. Brain-dead.
So what lineup changes should Woody imploy for game 2?
The exact same but Ryan in for Janmark.
Well, probably Ryan in for concussed Janmark, to start.
More time for Bro?
Did the Oilers get a too many men penalty?
Well that’s game.
Sad that this team can’t get up for series. Too much beach time?
Hope its a long series so maybe they can find their game like they did in the lat 10 minutes.
Singh is so excited Louie needs to go as well. Bring in Cassie and Hextall they check all the boxes.
This was a national game.
The broadcast was dreadful…by a smidge.
The German Gretzky….good grief.
Bring in A-I Danny Gallivan and Dick Irvin
I’m sad we didn’t get Cuthbert like last year. What ever happened to Romaniuk?
Too many men on the Oilers
Why is Foegele trying to stick handle past 3 or 4 guys? Dump that in.
Having trouble reading why Hopkins is so ineffective.
Anyone have a read on what’s wrong there?
He is invisible out there.
played 20 minutes and didn’t register one shot
He doesn’t really drive north as a 2C. He can cycle well with good Fs but he isn’t a gamer at C.
I love it when all 5 skaters unplug their brains for 5 seconds in their own end.
Oilers abandoned the slot and the Knights had a 2 on 0 down low. Yikes!
Hyman needs more doing and less watching of doing.
Better not be any more talk blaming Skinner for tonight. Kid’s been really good
Agreed. And almost every non-29 player has had chances with no finish.
Bouchard not having a good outing…
Need a bottom 6 goal right about now….
Gonna have to spot play Drai in the bottom six for that to happen
Auston Kostin almost sniped that one
Brossoit gets a bit lucky that it hit the shaft of his stick.