I wrote this back in January of 2017, in a period when we were discussing the Oilers versus Maple Leafs and what we thought would be a race to the Stanley Cup. I’m a fan of procuring talent from multiple sources, and TML used its power of persuasion plus astute trades to amass a nice group. I wondered about McDavid, and Matthews, in regard to winning during entry deals. It’s all in his guide and record book now, and the two clubs are full throttle to win with (mostly) veterans. It’s my belief that in the cap system you need value deals to win it all. Brown and Hyman are not value deals anymore, and they aren’t in Toronto, either.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers are undergoing a changing of the guard on defence
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Ranking the Edmonton Oilers’ top 6 trade assets
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: CAR, MIN, NJD, CHI, TBAY, FLA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 4-2-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-0, 12 points in 12 games
- Actual December results: 7-3-0, 14 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 16-15-1, 33 points in 32 games
The Oilers and Minnesota Wild are the hottest teams in the WC wild card chase, and we’ll see how things land between now and the deadline. Edmonton will need to make a goalie trade, I don’t think the club has enough assets to offload Jack Campbell, unless a big contract is also coming back. It’s a fascinating time for the organization. The “I’ll Sleep When I’m Dead” approach to the prospects in the system is unique for a team that hasn’t won a Stanley Cup in this version of itself.
THE NUMBERS
This is a strong group of numbers and everything looks good this morning. The coach ran all four lines and three pairings in an orderly fashion and Stuart Skinner got the shutout. His five-on-five save percentage for the season continues to improve, he’s now up to .908 in 2023-24. He ranks No. 19 among regular goaltenders this season. Skinner needs to steal some games down the stretch, but not losing games is also important.
The defense is making plays. More aggressive in the neutral zone, more structured in coverage (better gaps) and the outlet options are there often. It’s nice to see. This is against San Jose, but there was some rust and it was a good way to break everyone in after the break. You may recall some ghastly late December and early January games in the past.
For me, Darnell Nurse looked good, composed, calm feet. You could say that about the whole damn bunch of them, Bouchard’s shot standing out as an absolutely lethal weapon. Six points for the blue last night.
Zach Hyman is a joy to behold, he’s like Rocket Robin Hood is most every game. SIX high-danger chances, he and 97 helped set the tone for the game. Connor McDavid is playing at a level that makes you wonder about the last night he’s reached these dizzying heights, and I don’t think it’s a bad thing at all that the TOI was low. The Draisaitl line cashed and Ryan McLeod continues to be a developing story in December. He’s up to 1.62 pts-60 with a 55 percent goal share at five-on-five. The third and fourth lines have a nice competition going on, I wonder if we’ll see a move for someone who can play in the middle on that line. Dylan Holloway’s return is imminent. The Oilers are getting some depth back into the roster. It was nice to see Connor Brown get a point, he’s a major player in my Evander Kane piece today at The Athletic.
PROCUREMENT
As we discussed yesterday, the Oilers roster construction is mainly free agency and draft picks. Condors play tonight, and as I mentioned above, the team is going to need a goaltender, a center (RH?) and you’d like an upgrade on RH defense. That means assets out. The Condors play tonight, with Philip Broberg and Olivier Rodrigue the impact prospects on the roster. Raphael Lavoie has been a little quiet lately, one expects he’ll have a big game soon.
One thing that TML team did six seasons ago is develop players who were in the minors for a time. Edmonton could use a jolt of that, but the most promising AHL hands who are young enough to have careers are all on defense. I feel a defense-for-forward trade may come soon. Active first quarter of 2024 ahead for Ken Holland.
Should be a more entertaining game tonight than on Thursday….
I would watch paint dry for 3 hours if it meant 2 desperately needed points in the bank.
-3 for the ECHL 3rd pair. Maybe not 100% on them, but it can’t be a coincidence. Certainly Oli needs to make the stops, but this team, despite Campbell’s influence, has given up less goals than 30 other teams.
Condors give up two in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd.
I missed the first but it sounded like it went under the bar (they played on for a while and it was reviewed).
The second was a bad turnover in front.
——————-
Condors on a PP, Broberg take the puck from his own zone, transitions and tries to split the D – almost makes it and draws a tripping penalty – Lavoie lazers a snap shot from the top of the circles to regain the lead.
Broberg with a very nice keep on PK1, over to Griffith on the right side, over to Lavoie for the one-timer from distance – Pederson grabs the rebound and a nifty tuck to extend the lead to 3-1.
Lavoie and Griffith will get the assists I think.
Bourgault absolutely tenacious on the forecheck, breaks up a couple of clear mistakes, ends up spinning and taking a shot from the half boards which somehow goes in.
I don’t think it hit anything (maybe Tulio, maybe the d-man) but was just flubbed by the goalie.
Anyways, lucky goal but caused by great tenacity to Bourgult.
2-1 Condors with 11 to go in the 2nd.
Rodrigue now with 15 saves on 16 shots after letting in the first (weak) shot.
Now Wanner steps up in the neutral zone as the Baracuda try to zone exit, a great stick to to break it up and put the Condors on an almost odd-man rush.
What does this offensive production for Matt Copponi mean?
Still over a PPG and we are now well in to the season – he’s 20 until the summer.
I mentioned the aggressive step-up and big hit by Wanner earlier.
Now, a fast puck retrieval under pressure, goes around the net and powers out of the turn to create space and rips a lazer pass right on Kambietz’s stick at center in full flight.
Beautiful play.
I forgot to mention, my stand-out of the first period was Cater Savoie – really good in the offensive zone, all over the puck making plays.
Broberg picks off a pass on the PK in the low defensive slot and with no hesitation just barrels forward up the ice to try and create an odd-man SH chance – powerful and confidant.
Nothing came from it as Malone can’t keep up any longer but it was an encouraging play.
Rodrigue comes out to play the puck behind the net, kind of gets clipped by the forechecker – didn’t seem like much but Rodrigue looks a little dazed – when the play ends (with a Peters fight), Oly flops forward. Trainer comes out to see him during the fight and stoppage – Oly is staying in the game.
Also, a few second before that, Wanner with a big step up and hit in the neutral zone – love this kid.
A one-timer from the left point goes over Rodrigue’s shoulder and in.
Not a great goal on SJ’s first shot of the game.
Some solid PP pressure and the Peters soft wrister from the point finds its way in – think McKegg may have tipped it but currently being give to Peters, 1-0 Condors just over 5 minutes in.
Summarizing!
A productive night was had.
Lachance scored twice at evens.
Copponi had a pair of helpers and went 11-of-17 (64.7%) on the dot.
Munzenberger treated himself to an apple in a win.
Day halted his losing streak, stopping 23 of 26 in a 5-3 victory.
Maatta remained out of the Vermont lineup.
LT mentioned the Munzenberger pick the other day attributing it to possibly Ken Holland.
That trade had a very dod ‘because Oilers’ feel to it.
The obvious pick is right there. Wallstedt.
The Oilers forgo the obvious pick to trade down for an extra pick. Then they use that pick on a guy, I can’t even recall, but I don’t think he was even ranked by central scouting.
The player they spent the third rounder on n extreme reach pick fades into oblivion and the first rounder they pick turns into a disappointment.
Like 2003, the player selected after MAP/ Bourgeault, turns out to be a home run pick selected by an American team (Kessler, Johnson)
It’s almost as if the Oilers were riffing off the MAP script.
I posted about Copponi separately without seeing this update but LaChance is becoming a story – I presume maybe an increased role at evens with Celebrini out but, at the same time, no Celebrini or Hutson to help him with increased minutes/tougher comp.
I mentioned the other day I listened to a very glowing report on this player from someone that had seen apx 15 BU games.
Pretty much the same lineup with Petrov in for Wright:
Tulio/McKegg/Bourgault
Lavoie/Pederson/Griffith
Caggiula/Malone/Petrov
Savoie/Grubbe/Kambeitz
Broberg/Kemp
Peters/Wanner
Corcoran/Benard
Rodrigue
Team D was excellent last game despite being so severely under-manned on the back end.
American hockey players, they’ve kind of snuck up on us.
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1740753923865260249
That lineup is absolutely terrifying.
Hellebuyck, Demko, and Oettinger as goalie options.
A lot of elite offensive d and look at that forward depth.
Oh, I don’t think they’ve snuck up, at least not on me – if there was true international best on best, they’d have been legit top contenders for years now, and getting better by the year.
The American roster looks scary!
Americans have been predicted to pass Canada at hockey for the past 30+ years.
Meanwhile Canada goes to the Olympics and dominates to an extent that makes you wonder where the opposition is coming from.
Just saw a news report on a possible Exceptional Status player for the WHL Draft. RHD Landon DuPont. Son of former NHLer Mikki. He has similar size as Cale Makar and apparently has similar skating.
Plays for the Edge School West of Cowtown. It will be interesting to see if they allow this, the WHL has only given such status to Connor Bedard in it’s entire history.
Keep an eye on a kid by the name of Maddox Schultz, currently tearing up U15AA in Sask with the Regina Pat Blues. Saw him in person during a preseason tourney in Esterhazy, the kid is the goods. Currently clipping along at a 2GPG and 4PPG clip as a 13 year old, and he even has played four games of U18AAA this season (4GP, 1G 1A)!
Would Tyson Yost be a good pickup off waivers , for a bottom six center. Possibly 3c?
doesn’t seem to be able to stick with any team …. so doubtful he would help Edm …
That was my first thought as well.
Jost gets slaughtered on his rels via PuckIQ, but he sees a lot of deployment against elites (anywhere from 21-32% depending on team, over the last few years).
Has spurts where he’s >50% in GF, typically coinciding with more sheltered ice time.
I seem to recall he’s a strong skater. Has experience on both PP and PK. Boxcars are shy. Makes RNH look like a faceoff savant.
He’s already cleared and is playing in the AHL.
He’s objectively inferior to Ryan McLeod (and at pretty much the same cap hit).
Hunter1909’s New Year’s Message to Lowetide:
Happy New Year for 2024; Remember to never be afraid to Dare to Dream, because that is your secret to your personal success. In the upcoming darker times, it’s even more of an opportunity to get ahead in life particularly if you’re under 25 years old.
advice: Try not to tell anyone of your dreams for your future – it usually has them either pretending to like what you are telling them and hating you for it; or else they give you the other reaction that you don’t even need or want to know about. Something to do with openly and instantly dissing your idea. Either one is equally bad negative in it’s consequences. Safe travels.
Thanks to the VGK recent 4 game losing streak,
If the Oilers win the 5 games they have on the VGK and
The Oilers win both remaining games with VGK…
Former quite possible with the coming schedule and they have played them well head on in regular season play. If these two things happen the Oilers would be only 2 points off the VGK pace.
Ryan Holt confirms that Rodrigue gets the start tonight.
Also, Petrov back from injury (missed maybe 5 games) and he’s slotting in with Malone and Caggiula – truth be told, that is a good offensive opportunity – Drake is hot as hell and is very good offensive player at that level.
Jack should only play when Rodrigue needs a break. Give him all he can handle. We need to find out what Rodrigue is and if he might be a NHL 1A or 1B. Clocks ticking!
It seems there has been a clear pivot to exactly this 5 games ago.
Fantastic result.
Great showing by Skinner.
Call it rust or scoring effects or playing to the level of the competition, but I was a little alarmed at the number of unforced own zone and neutral zone giveaways. It’s great they’re making plays, but some of those pass attempts simply had no upside.
Sweden beats Can 2-0 at WJ. Sweden looked pretty good. Can will have to find another gear if they want that shiny gold medal at the end.
You never know what will happen with 17 to 18 year olds, but the back end looks mediocre
After reading Vanessa Kuzwer’s piece at SN, Chris Tanev is the droid we’re looking for
His game is exactly what Nurse needs, and she points out he actually hasn’t missed many games the last 5 seasons
LT mentioned a RD upgrade and I think that would make more difference than another winger. If forwards aren’t getting the right support it limits them
To me the D numbers aren’t strong after Ek Bouch. The other two pairs are under 50% in shot share and xGF%, in a game they totally dominated
I think it’s a function of Ceci and Des being marginal puck movers and skaters. We know Kulak moves well and can pass, I think he’s being dragged down. Same for Nurse, teams can key on him because Ceci doesn’t move it with pace, and isn’t great defending the line, although he has been better after the change
I’m not sure Holland sees it this way from his comments. Probably looking for forwards and goalies. If they get forwards I wonder who goes out or sits or goes down
Holland isn’t going to do anything other than cash his paycheques.
He’ll sit on his hands and call it patience.
Holland had all offseason to parlay Ceci Kulak and Foegele into a serviceable top 4 partner for Nurse. Holland instead gambled on Connor Brown and passed the buck to the next G.M. Did Holland know he was already a lame duck, us peons will probably never know. Thankfully the firing of Woody was much quicker then Hollands MO. I myself definitely believe it came from above as the team was listless while Woody was panicking to save his job. I believe Kris and Paul have settled things down and the boys are back to playing hockey instead of all the outside distractions. I think Paul has already got a good read on our D and will see if he’s quietly instrumental in a trade of one for the Playoff run.
Not sure why you have an Oil logo for an avatar, you clearly don’t like this franchise.
I see it as the opposite. Being ok with Holland doing squat over the summer, and likely nothing great in the next while, when they are a few better players from being dominant….
Having only ‘two’ puck moving D (that do it reliably as a regular part of their game) when you have such forward talent must make the other GM’s happy. And the same goalie problems as always. It makes me sad – what they could be right now
I didn’t say I was okay with Holland doing squat over the summer.
Would suggest Vegas has 2 ‘puck movers’ as well. Theodore and Petro. They are having goalie issues as well with Thompson regressing hard and Hill having injuries.
What was the big ‘get’ on D over the summer?
Ghost – 4M
Graves – 5.75
Mayfield – NYI resigned, never available
Orlov – lefty 7.5M he’d be hated more than Nurse
Dumba – Yes, that would have been a great move. 3.9M x 1, could be a deadline addition assuming Arizona fades.
Klingberg – ya right
Schenn – I don’t think he moves the needle, YMMV
Edmundson, Petry, Colin Miller, Caleb Jones, Bogosian all on the trade market, none of them fill the 2RD minimum role we’re looking for.
I think deadline they figure something out, this team was dominant before the flop this year and have won 11 of 14 since.
I think patience on this blog and with Oiler fans in general is at an all time low especially with the verbal they hucked at us to start. That doesn’t disguise the fact this team has been rounding into form for over a month now.
For me it’s all about cups. Nothing else matters in pro sports right?
But, when you are gifted what the Oilers have been, slowly plodding along isn’t ok. Not recognizing the deficiencies or being unable to address them isn’t acceptable. Never was, but especially now. We have examples of our competitors being better at critical pieces. That’s all I want for our team
This team when playing well is very good. Despite mediocre goalies. Stu as I posted in here today even after the change is way down the list in key metrics. What I am concerned about is playoffs
Holland seems ok with D that aren’t good enough, or too expensive per role. This and goalies are what stand between being the most dominant team in the league, and having of settle for losing to ‘the eventual Cup winners’
We should be that, without question in my eyes, with the the best player in the world and other excellent players, in prime, with lots of miles travelled
We know this, that the Oilers should be and should have been challenging for Cups, because of the example of our own franchise and those who have won multiple Cups in more recent years. It is the easier things they still fail at, hampering our advantages
I forgot to respond regarding the D you mentioned. This is the problem, there wasn’t any UFAs Holland went for or felt he could afford
The best use all avenues. Holland has mostly done UFA and draft. He has missed the main way the better teams make improvements quickly which is trading. To me he’s not good at it, maybe that’s why
Rookie GM Allvin acquired Hronek (from Holland’s old team) and created one of the best pairs in the league. There are players available, but you need analytics to help recognize them. You need to spend assets wisely so you are maximizing them. Dusty old books and ways, overpaying for guys because you have blinders on of whatever, lead to where we are
They seem a step behind always, lacking a broader vision, and end up reacting from a place of disadvantage as they get ‘blindsided’ by what a lot of others think is pretty obvious
So who would you be targeting, provide solutions. Earn your $5M. What is your broader vision. Instead of criticizing, lay it on the table and say who you would target to ‘fix’ this.
I know it’s not your job to know it (unless you are a GM, I dont know), humour me.
Would Dumba have been a great move? He’s worse that Ceci, in particular when you factor on QoC, and makes more.
He’d be an upgrade at 3RD, sure, but not in the top 4.
sure
No he will get fed finding some unhelpful guys like usually. His deadline adds other than Ek have not done anything except burn assets. Bjug seemed ok and then crapped out when the whole point of getting him came around
For me they need a RS C so one of that fella Gagner and Ryan are available for right side faceoffs
I think given Tanev will likely be dealt, I’d go hard after him, he would be like adding Ek last year, there will be a huge difference. Pesce sure, but he will cost more, and like Mayfield wanted to stay put, Pesce wants to be in Carolina I read today. He might do a team friendlyish deal there to stay
Then Nic Dowd who was available this summer. He has a history of doing well against anybody
Since the coaching change Skinner in the league at 5v5 is 34th, all strengths 32nd. Pickard 51st and 45th. There aren’t a lot of choices that might be available that are better. Might have to roll Stu Capt and Ollie in the playoffs and hope for the best
Don’t you hate it when you have to explain a joke?
My comments regarding the Vancouver Canucks were simply lifted from a Rocket Robin Hood ident. Rocket Robin Hood having been mentioned today by our August host.
Guilty as charged – that joke totally flew over my head.
That said, yes the Canucks are running a PDO heater. But that team has some good ingredients. Will they regress? Probably. But they will no doubt add to their team at the deadline, and what they add may help to mitigate the regression that’s coming for them. I still don’t like their defense beyond the Hughes-Hronek pairing, but if they can improve that at the deadline, they are going to be a legit contender.
I’m not that much of a fan of any team other than the Oilers, but if the Canucks under Rick Tocchet win the cup without diving like that pathetic team featuring the Sedins, I’ll be all for it.
You should be ashamed.
Run along to ‘nucks.com.
To be honest, I “liked” but didn’t “love” the contract they gave to Hyman.
Of course, he was going to be a great add to start but I thought that $5MM of value was pretty much the high end for the first few years and I thought this player, with his style and the miles on him, would regress quite early in the contract and that there would be high injury risk (he had knee issues priors).
I simply did not expect him to be full value for $5MM the first year and then just blow that out of the water the 2nd year with a career year and, apparently, not just repeat that career year but potentially dwarf it again.
Not to mention, for me, Hyman has been a more “reliable two-way player” this season. I have criticized him as a player that was not great in his own zone, would cheat for offence and didn’t battle as hard in the defensive zone as the offensive zone. I stand by my opinion over the last few years but I think he’s been a more reliable 2-way player this year.
I think Hyman not being asked to PK as much this year might be a factor in him continuing to play so great at 5 on 5.
I myself was also worried about the wear and tear Hyman has taken earlier in his career as a result of going to the net where he makes his living. He seems to have taken on the Joe Pavelski style where he does his thing quietly around the net without getting beat up like earlier in his career.
I understood and accepted the calculus at the time – shore up the roster near term, and if it contributes to Stanley who cares about the tail end of the contract.
I Never envisioned either Hyman or Nuge producing at the levels they have recently, and when they eventually ’drop off,’ I expect it will be back to levels shown before they were signed. Which even at 5M isn’t the worst.
Time waits for no one, but right now nothing portends a cliff plummet for either player. I guess it wouldn’t be a cliff otherwise.
Because of the blowout I watched a lot of the L.A – Vegas game.
Vegas is either holding back for the 2nd season or they’re holding on. They blocked something like 40 shots, credit where do to clogging things up. I suppose I need to get my head around Cassidy’s neo-Lemaire approach to zone defense. It’s an odd style for a lineup with that much skill but they hold the box for sure.
L.A. fires from everywhere and that causes chaos. Kudos to Vegas for holding form and limiting Royal road and slot based rebounds. Fiala I think tried to unload 7-8 one timers from the top of the right circle
in the final five minutes. He didn’t really move from that spot. Which is a team
issue it seems. LA is very static once they are setup. Not enough movement especially from guys away from the puck. Makes the d’s job easy on zone, again credit to Vegas for holding the fort. LA have more than a few guys with sneaky shots though, goalers need to be on their toes. The 2nd LA goal was brutal tending by Thompson but a heckuva read and shot by Moore.
A fun game to watch but I can’t say I got nervous watching it. Slower teams by eye but could have been a scheduling quirk – LA on B2B and Vegas first game after the break. The key to beating a Vegas box is to run around constantly. If you’re static it’s all easy angles, if the Oils bring some of that PP skill, or the hustle we saw against NYR and NJD, it can be broken down and then we have career backups/AHLers to shoot at.
Looking forward to Saturday’s tilt.
LAK and their approach to “volume shooting” is classic Flattop. He’s not very creative.
Just continuing the Sutter tradition.
A shooting mentality is definitely TMac style but the creative part comes down more to the players IMO.
I tend to think volume shooting is probably the single best offensive tactic for a coach to run. Unskilled guys can crash the net, skill guys pick spots, dmen get to participate, there’s something in it for everyone. But it’s only one tactic. What comes with it? Do you coach shoot from everywhere all the time or is it more tactile. Where do you put guys in motion? What are you telling your defense to do? Where do you want to see shots come from?
These other details I weigh more towards player execution. Vegas boxed up hard for sure but L.A. didn’t press the issue either, they stayed to the sides, looking for an executioner shot instead of a goal mouth scramble.
On LA’s first goal, which was a bit more scrambly, saw them go below the goal line, back out to the high slot and then sending three guys through the slot for the tip in. Lots of movement by everyone and when one Vegas player lost his check it was odd man’s down low.
Easier said than done but guys in motion is the key.
Ya know when pressing for a tying goal or on 2nd period long changes, I’m thinking the patented 3v3 neutral zone reset wouldn’t be the worst idea. If you’re having trouble breaking a box on a cycle, why not pull back, reset and attack with speed again? Forces the defense to move, tempts them with a line change. At least this way you continue to control the pace and rules of engagement. Risky if it’s 6v5, lots of bodies but something I’ve been wondering about.
Our guys when humming basically do this in the 2nd with their back pressure play and it often leads to goals and/or a re-up in the ozone. But it’s not intentional. You don’t have them backing off and then intentionally coming back. Something I’ve been chewing on.
This sounds exactly like TMac teams in EDM.
Vegas can box up like that cause all of their defenseman are huge.
Getting to the net and paying the price is key to beating those guys.
We have guys who do that exceptionally well – Hyman and McDavid are constantly driving the net. To a lesser extent, Foegele does as well. McLeod has stopped doing flybys and is actually stopping with authority in front of the net – he has the speed from the wing to get behind defenders and establish position in front of the net before the defenseman can get set. Draisaitl got off the schnied last night by taking the puck hard to the net – to often he settles for passes if he can’t get an executioner shot off. But he’s got the size and soft hands to score at will when he drives to the net.
Kane and Brown need to get to the net more and get some greasy Hyman-like goals. I’m hopeful that Holloway will bring that to the bottom 6 if he can just stay healthy. Hamblin seems to have a nose for the net, as well, and did a great job screening the goalie on the Bouchard goal last night … more of that please.
It works as long as the opposition wilts.
Come playoffs; it’s ineffective when the opposition counters.
vegas and LA played back 2 back and they looked it
We caught SJ on a back to back and tommorow LA will be on a 3 games in 4 nights spread. Sunday we will be on 3 games in 4 nights on the back half of a back to back
Happy to meet the Kings like that. The quacks should be beatable, regardless.
I said “should”.
KK said it when he came, the key to beating teams like Vegas is get the puck up the ice quick and get at their net before they get into their box
The other thing is to use seams and low high plays. Screens can work and deflections but it can be hard to get it through the sea of bodies. They have been better under KK in doing the former, and they need to keep doing it to get timing down of guys moving into position and getting a good pass and the puck off quick
Cycling is good to hold possession but If you don’t make plays to attack the net from the front you can end up rimming it around the boards and not getting HD shots, to me that happened a lot under Woody, if the defenders were collapsing
Interesting analysis, thanks a lot for providing it.
As an Oilers fanatic, I cannot help but marvel at how the dynasty Oilers simply imposed their brand of hockey on any opposition; oftentimes humiliating them in the process.
Teams like Boston and Philly would make the finals with better records than the Oilers feeling great – only to lose in 4-5 games most of which weren’t even particularly close. While Oilers could play a brand of open hockey that was unrivaled, they were essentially a shutdown team; as tough or tougher than any other team in hockey. Astonishing, really.
The entire roster of one of those 80’s Dynasty teams cost less than what McDavid alone makes in a season. The competitive balance changed dramatically once the US teams woke up and started trying to compete.
Will be interesting tomorrow night without the Oilers having a real 3C right now, to go up against the team that is “3 centers deep” and on the road – even though PLD sucks.
One could make an argument to put McLeod back at 3C for this game but, of course, that would be a very risky type move given how hot he is as Leon’s left winger – no real chance they actually change that and I presume the lineup is the same.
Will be interesting to see how the bottom two lines do against a strong and deep Kings team.
Run Kane out there against PLD – even if he’s not scoring, he can still help by being an aggravating PITA to play against. Kane gets up for games against the Kings.
Otherwise, don’t mess with what’s working.
Kane scares the daylights out of, conservatively, 90% of the NHL.
He’s a fantastic player to have on your team.
What makes the Leon line so cool is how they basically give him a pair of plugs – then Leon elevates their game by sublime hockeying.
Kane therefore can play on the 3rd line where he elevates that line with honest to goodness elite scoring.
Question: Why don’t they play Kane with McDavid?
Kane is a bad defensive player while Nuge plays both ends of the ice.
Kane is historicallly not a bad defensive player. I think injuries and the bad habits of the Oilers forwards as a whole are afflicting him.
Probably injuries.
As inept as the Oilers can be at times, in so many ways approaching infinity, i don’t believe a first rate quality player like Kane gets led astray by the foibles of his team mates.
I though Lavoie came on really strong in the third period last game – some dominant shifts.
With that said, his play since re-assignment has regressed back to where it was prior to last December where it seemed the switch popped. Yes, the clear ability to impact games and shifts but back to high inconsistency from game to game and shift to shift.
To my eye, the Caggiula/Pederson duo and the Tulio/McKegg/Bourgault lines are the offensive impacts recently.
I was dismayed to see Holloway + Lavoie have counted exactly a single point between them in this year’s NHL.
Add Connor Brown and you double that to a grand total of 3 points between the 3 players.
Perhaps on 1, I’m not positive they make a goalie trade and, if they do, I think its for a short-term “tandem goalie” to pair with Skinner – like a Reimer (I know he may not be available if Detroit stays in the race).
MAYBE a Blackwood but its tough to see that type of trade without Campbell being moved and, frankly, I just can’t see a Campbell trade at all let alone in-season.
There is just so much negative value in that Campbell deal I imagine the assets out are just cost-prohibitive. Like 3 1st-round pick equivalent type assets. A 1st and Bourgault doesn’t move that contract, not even close I wouldn’t think.
Yes, taking back a large anchor contract is likely the way but the thing is that Campbell’s contract has become so largely negative, its tough to think of another contract the Oilers would take on that won’t still require massive assets out for the Oilers plus taking on the anchor contract.
Merzlikins has recovered to a place that his negative value is nowhere near where Campbell’s is. Even Josh Anderson, a horrid contract for a player that consistently underwhelms, isn’t near the negative value of Campbell – it would probably take Campbell plus a 1st to acquire one of the worst contracts in the league. No thank you.
I really thing this trends towards an off-season buyout – that SUCKS but its not THAT bad as far as the cap hits over the 6 years. Sigh, 6 years.
Maybe they just bury him for 3 more years and take the $3.85MM essentially dead cap hit going forward.
They did it with Looch, it’s not unprecedented. Bad for bad, salvage some value and birth of a meme (3rd rounder). Merzlikins isn’t a bad pick for potential rebound but horrawful current contract. Bought out Neal but would suggest his contributions then cap freedom ultimately were a win.
Those saying it’s impossible I think would’ve said the same about Looch. Toughest part is Jack can’t bring intangibles. Stop the puck or don’t. Punching people doesn’t help.
At least it’s not Huberdeau bad.
Lucic, as bad as he was, still had more use as an NHLer when Calgary traded for him than Campbell does.
Yes, the anchor contract for anchor contract is the one avenue but I think its becoming increasingly harder as Campbell has become unplayable at the NHL level – his negative value dwarfs that of Lucic back at the time.
The Lucic deal cost the Oilers quite a bit in additional to acquiring the anchor contract of Neal. I imagine the additional cost of flipping Campbell for a Merzlikins or an Anderson would be very significant.
A zany idea:
How about offering Campbell to the Flames for Huberdeau at 50% retained contract?
Chances are Huberdeau improves as an Oiler while Campbell is off the team, period.
6 years after Holland is gone we’ll still be paying for this albatross.
That’s what $5,000,000.00 buys you these days.
It’s very similar to Chia slipping out the door after signing Koskinen to an albatross contract… but Campbell’s contract makes Koski’s contract look like an eagle.
Except Holland had help making the decision to sign Campbell and everyone involved – mainly you, Dustin Schwartz – should be fired once they put Holland out to pasture.
Hire a ruthless GM who makes winning the priority, not optics.
For clarity, the 5 million I was referring to was Ken Holland’s salary.
Not the 5 million per year that Jack Campbell is stealing from the Oilers.
Have some pride and retire, Jack.
Keith retired, helping Holland save some face in that deal, maybe he’ll get lucky twice.
You ask others to do something you would not do yourself…….
Koskinen could actually stop the puck though. Campbell will just get bought out this summer. It’s the cheapest solution.
Oh boy a few bones to pick this AM LT.
The Maple Leafs? Come now LT, everyone in North America knows the Leafs are as big if not a bigger bust than the Oilers in the Matthews/Marner era. ONE playoff round win. One.
Using first round picks to unload idiotic retirement contracts – check.
Failing miserably to find a goalering solution after they convinced themselves Freddie Andersen was the problem – check.
An aging dcorps that has trouble playing defense – check.
A forward contract or three that kneecapped them cap wise while adding to a position of internal strengths – check
Casting off incredibly useful players cause of the above contracts – check.
Make fun of the franchise, don’t idolize 😉
(All of this in jest)
I disagree wholeheartedly that Zach Hyman isn’t a value contract.
Otherwise, bright and sunny morning today. I thought Stu looked “in control” all night. He was square, he wasn’t looking backwards, he moved efficiently. When he’s on he’s a damn good goaler. Consistency for the young man is key.
I love Ryan McLeod so much, he’ll be my next jersey once he gets established. He’s got all the tools to have a very long career. Same as Stu, consistency and trusting thine self. It’s been fun to see the last few games.
McLeod: first 21 GP, 29 shots, 0 goals
Last 11 games, 13 shots, 6 goals
His shot rate is actually down slightly in that span, from about 1.4 to 1.2 / GP.
Now shooting 14.3% on the season, 4th best on team behind Hyman, Hamblin, Draisaitl, ahead of McDavid, Kane, RNH.
He didn’t regress towards the meat or even to the meat. He has regressed beyond meat.
It’s amazing what happens when you go to the net eh?
I think it’s a full line thing the last few games and that four game stretch when he was at 3C.
Outside of those stretches no one on McLeod‘s line wanted to shoot and if they got a shot it was one off’s (Foegele gets a lot of odd man chances…) or it was a miss into the corner and around.
Nobody, least of all McLeod, were generating offense. I’m not saying shoot for the sake of shooting but if you aren’t even attempting shots that means you need to be 100% perfect on defense to saw off your matchup. A tough strategy to ride in an 82 game season.
Very happy to see that toothless grin. Last nights goal was a very good shot!
Like that stretch McLeod had Janmark on one wing & Brown on the other? I was stunned they didn’t fill the net.
McLeod’s goal last night was just bad goaltending. He picked the corner but should have been a fairly routine save.
It’s hard too chew meat without your two front teeth!
I remember when as a 11 year old my front teeth had a space between them – I’d put a straw between them and think it was a great effect…holding the straw with my front teeth.
Then you grow up and stuff like this becomes a big problem.
Regressed to the marrow?
Brilliant, thanks for the laugh
If I regress to the meat, does that mean I’m not vegan? Asking for a friend….
How good do you think McLeod can turn out to be?
Wut? This is surprising in some way?
Is there any possible way to regress to the mean other than eventually posting a data set that is on the other side of the mean?
Almost no one performs at their mean, except for elusively brief time frames.
We all know this, right?
What would actually be interesting is looking at whether an extended period of regression in hockey performance leads to more violent regression when it does happen.
I should have qualified with “not a value contract that takes up little space” and that is my bad in regard to Hyman.
Stauffer hinting we may see Rodrigue in Jan. I do think it would be a good idea to have him come in for a few and see how he does? Guess you never know and if he plays very good maybe you run with him and Skinner. If he doesn’t then you trade for a goalie. But if you don’t have to trade picks and prospects to get rid of Campbell and grab another goalie that would be a huge bonus . You could use picks and assets for other needs.
Play Rodrigue against the Habs in Montreal on Jan 13th. That would be a great first game for a french-Canadian kid.
Good sir LT,
My prospect preview was requiring approval? Please to be advising what flagged it in the first place.
It was marked spam. SO strange. It’s up now.
Thanking you!
The Oilers don’t require their goaltenders to steal games in order to win — Skinner’s play has improved since the coaching change, and he had a strong game against the Rangers but he hasn’t kept them in games they had no business in winning.
And that’s good when looking at overall team play.
But as our host points out, in order to beat the league’s best, and to make any sort of long playoff run a team will require its goalie to be guilty of a little light larceny now and then.
Skinner hasn’t shown any indication that he’s capable of that.
The Oilers are very capable of making the playoffs with average NHL goaltending. But few teams make an impact in the playoffs with average goaltending.
Skinners number have improved, but not sure he has changed ..the team defence has.
Yes would be nice to have a real # 1 G, we missed that boat….however we can do it with continuing great team defence…as in last 20 ….15 – 4 – 1
Last year Vegas won the Cup with Adin Hill winning 11 games and Laurent Brossoit 5.
Prior year Colorado won the Cup with Darcy Kuemper winning 10 games and Pavel Francouz 6.
I don’t suppose any of them is bound for the Hall of Fame.
I’d argue Skinner was a major factor in winning at least 2 games Oilers could easily have lost, at WPG on Nov 30 and @ NYR on Dec 22. Both times he held it close at just 0-1 down before his mates finally got the offence going in the third. In either case, a second GA likely meant turn out the lights, & he just would not yield it.
Adin Hill may not be bound to the Hall of Fame, but he certainly outplayed Skinner in that series and stole a game or two. You don’t need a Hasek in goal to win, but you do need a goaltender that can keep you in games when you’re being outplayed.
I cited the New York game as a strong one for Skinner, but while he made some excellent stops the Oilers were peppering Quick with plenty of chances as well.
A goaltender “stealing” a game is subjective, but I argue it involves them winning a game in which their team is being outplayed by a wide margin for an extended period of time. Where there are numerous grade-A chances that are stopped.
When was the last time the Oilers played in a game like that?
Also: Skinner was a rookie last year. Hill was not. To assume that because he lost that series, that’s all that he is, would be a mistake.
It was team defense and losing the line matching battle that lost the Vegas series.
Online conversations, even in the more thoughtful corners of the internet such as our wonderful host’s comment section, tend to turn binary very quickly.
1: I’m not writing off Skinner as an NHL goaltender. He is one already. But the Oilers’ goaltending hasn’t yet proven to be good enough to make a long playoff run. That’s not on Skinner, it’s on the organization. They haven’t put Skinner in a position to succeed, but he’s found some success anyway much to his credit.
2: Even teams that outplay their competition will sometimes require their goaltenders to come up big and allow them to win those games / periods where they are outplayed. Superior goaltending wasn’t the primary reason that Vegas beat the Oilers last year, but Hill’s performance in game five certainly contributed to shortening the series.
3: Laying the blame on the goalie is easy, and is done far more often than it should be. However, I would argue that a lot of commentators go the other way and shift the blame squarely on the skaters if there’s so much as a scoring chance. There are two teams on the ice and no matter how well a team plays there will be some sort of breakdown — perfection is not a reasonable expectation. If the Oilers go into a third period up a goal against a good team there will be scoring chances against. You want to eliminate ghastly mistakes, odd man rushes, and back door tap-ins but at some point your goalie has to stop difficult shots.
Just caught up to the blog last night as work and family had me tied up over Christmas the last week.
Hope everyones holidays are going well.
LT I’m not sure I would agree that Hymans deal isn’t a value contract. The last three seasons including this one I would say he’s on one of the best deals in the league.
I think he meant they weren’t value contracts for the TML’s anymore.
Time passes… Things change… Decisions matter… Etc.
Holloway at 3C or 2L
Mcleod at 3C or 2L
mix and match. This might work.
one issue. Can Holloway take faceoffs
Holloway has been a centre all his life. Which is why he is getting pummelled and injured along the boards.
He hasn’t taken many since his hand/wrist injury (2 surgeries) but he did play a bit of center in Bako – not much.
Prospectilirium!
It’s a healthy quintet on the NA amateur docket, all based out of the US and A.
Day is in another tailspin, having lost five in a row and allowing 26 GA in that span.
The Vermonters need a compass and a team of dogs to find the opposition net, while Lachance and Copponi seek to continue fine seasons.
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Merrimack (Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Veteran time.
Looks like a confident and slightly pissed of bunch. and that is great!!
Doubt Arizona does it, but they are the one team who has all the pieces we need to upgrade
Vejmelka (1B goalie)
Bjugstad (3C)
Dumba (2RD)
total cap =$8.725
Dumba can be retained on salary, cutting it down to $6.825 (which is Campbell, Broberg and a Desharnais). But those 3 upgrade us, and Bjugstad and Vejmelka have another year so solidifies for the Draisatl contract expiry run.
Won’t happen, but that is one team who can cure what what we lack instantly and might be willing to eat Campbells deal if we add a 1st and other things (like rodrigue etc.)
1) I don’t think Dumba is an upgrade on Ceci at all, in fact, a large downgrade, in my opinion. Ceci is very under-rated/under-appreciated in this market in my opinion given the QoC he plays, nightly.
2) Add 3 1st-round pick equivalent assets to move Campbell – I would think.
Some think the Vancouver Canucks are fat, foolish – and not worth worrying about.
I don’t.
They are a well-coached team with a superstar centre, defenseman and goalie, surrounded by depth at all positions. Beyond Hronkek, I don’t like their defense, but they are all veteran defenseman and come playoff time, those guys understand the intensity that they need to bring.
I give Rutherford credit – the biggest misstep that he may have taken was to sign Miller over Horvat, but Miller is having a good year and making that contract look fine, for now.
Vancouver is running a heater of all heaters. They will get ground to a pulp by the end of the year. Their strategy isn’t a strategy it’s luck. They get outplayed in pretty much every game. Demko needs to win a Vezina for them to even be a playoff team. There is nothing to respect about that franchise in the past, present or future. I loathe everything about them.
Calgary played a similar style a few years ago and got steamrolled in the playoffs when rope a dope turned into getting absolutely thundered left, right and centre. Ditto with Dallas two year ago against Calgary.
A hot goalie can make a coach look like Bowman and a team look like the 80s Oilers for stretches.
Its a mirage, they are all butter soft, regression is going to be ugly. Same
with Colorado.
Is Vancouver’s success a ‘heater’, or is it sustainable? Looking at PDO as an indicator of a heater provides the following.
Van has a PDO – PDO-A = +9.5 for the season and +9.8 during December. Their PDO is virtually identical at 105.2 and 105.3 for the samples.
Perspective: The Bruins during their record 135 point season last year had a differential of +7.6 with a season ending PDO = 104.2.
So, unless Vancouver is the greatest regular season team in history, their PDO (and differential) will regress. They certainly appear to be on a substantial heater.
Note: During December Van has gained 1.50 pts/gm with a +9.8 PDO differential, whereas the Oil are running at 1.40 pts/gm with a steadily improving +2.9 PDO differential.
I don’t think the Oilers can catch the Canucks (13 point difference as of today), but will take the Oil to win in a playoff series against them this spring.
What is PDO-A ?
Quant Hockey lists a team’s PDO as well as the opponents collective numbers against you (PDO-A).
They are frauds. Having 2nd wildcard would be wonderful to take them down. Then give me LA, then Vegas (I don’t think that’s possible). Exorcise all the demons and beat LA again cause it’s fun.
Then show me Toronto. Ultimate cup win fantasy.
Getting pretty cocky just because the boys pasted the worst team in the NHL. Maybe let’s see them beat the Canucks in the regular season first before we start anointing them Cup champions again.
I didn’t do that at any point. I literally called it a fantasy. Weird post.
I would like a goalie as well, several teams are looking for the exact same thing. Elvis, Fleury, Mrazk, Reimer are all minor upgrades, if at all.
Holland should go to Ollie right now to determine if he can go into the playoffs with a 23 and 24 year old goalie and win.
I think they would prefer his cup o’ joe to be more cappuccino than crappuccino. And no one wants to see affogato. They will espress him some mocha Bako starts before whipping him up to the Oil, methinks.
IMHO if the Oil go on a nice stretch for the next two or three weeks and are comfortably in a wild card spot, they bring up Rodrique if he continues to shine. Need to see if he has sustain and gets him a tad more development time to reinforce his confidence, and take advantage of a really nice schedule all the way to the All Star weekend.
I think this is the plan as well.
I think it makes sense for hit to be given the opportunity to run with the 1A job in Bako for a real stretch of time, get those starts and that development, before being brought up in a pressure-cooker and being asked to play once every 5 games.
One step at at time (and this step doesn’t have to be long if Rodrigue continues to play well and the Oilers solidify a bit).
Does Rodrigue get his 5th straight start tonight? Stauff did intimate that they are going to continue to run with them.
Condors are back to back so I imagine it’s a split.
did we not read that Holland was purposely going to watch him play this weekend ?
Holloway at C?
I’ve long suggested this but I think it’s a stretch to think the org will put him there at this point coming off injury. It’s a high responsibility position.
While I accept the Oilers are unlikely to try Holloway at 3C right now, it would be the perfect time to find out. Before spending assets at the deadline.
Holloway between vets Kane and Gagner would give him a chance to succeed. Gagner helping on weak side face offs.
This also allow for a Janmark Hamblin Roy 4th line. Again a youngster in a position to succeed between two vets. Roy helping on weak side draws.
Two vets who don’t have the wheels to play C anymore but do have Right handed face off chops, are able to help out on both bottom 6 lines, seem like a better bet than giving up Kesselring for a rental that gets own by Eichel.
I presume “Roy” is Derek Ryan?
It’s Derek Roy, #8 Oilers.
Yep, I messed that one up.