Fall in Edmonton is a glorious time to be outside. Leaves are falling in colours red and gold, everyone and their dog are out and walking and enjoying these moments. This morning, it’s just about freezing at my house, wouldn’t be surprised to see some frost on whatever you left uncovered last night.
We’ve just dipped our toes into the 2024-25 season, and the Oilers joined the season midway through the Flyers game. Under Kris Knoblauch, the team often spends this period tearing up the blacktop, winning many games and posting points as far as the eye can see. The first road trip is here. It’s a significant test.
The Athletic article looking at Ty Emberson is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 1-3-0, two points in four games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 1-3-0, two points in four games
I have the Oilers hovering around a standings point-per-game over the rest of the month, that would mean a final October record (including what we’ve seen) of 5-6-0, 10 points in 11 games. Nothing tragic, and we wouldn’t be able to say the gales of November came early. However, this team going 4-3-0 over the next seven isn’t guaranteed.
I like to look at Corsi and Fenwick and individually the rel numbers. I don’t think anyone does that anymore, but for me until Puck IQ gets rolling it gives us a strong view of reality. We have to take score effects into account, and that’s for sure with this Oilers team after four games. Having said that, the team’s five-on-five Corsi (62 percent) and Fenwick (58.6 percent) are tops in the NHL at this time. Expected goals (57 percent) at five-on-five is No. 3, and the actual goal share five-on-five (5-10) is 33 percent and ranks No. 29. We can see the first four games well enough in these numbers, but I would suggest that the math is misleading due to score effects. The Oilers are very good, but also flawed.
I’m not thrilled with the results from the Darnell Nurse pairings so far, but am pleased with the process. Kris Knoblauch’s choices for No. 2 RD can all move the puck, jump into the play and get back to where they once belonged for puck retrieval. I’m tempted to fade the results in the first three games for Nurse and partner because he looked for more able in Game 4. He played two preseason games, folks, it should be no surprise that an extended training camp took place during the regular season.
Corsi Rel five-on-five shows Evan Bouchard shining like a diamond, he’s shooting the puck a lot early on. I think he’s started a little slowly, too, meaning the best is yet to come. Brett Kulak and Mattias Ekholm also perform well Rel. The downbeat fellows are Ty Emberson (just underwater), Troy Stecher (a little deeper but you could save him by reaching out your hand), Travis Dermott (you’d have to walk into the ocean a few steps and physically immerse yourself into the water in order to save him) and then Nurse (you hope he’s got an oxygen tank).
I don’t think this team is going to be tight defensively ever. If you are looking for the Jacques Lemaire Devils, or the tightness of Earth, Wind & Fire, another NHL team may be to your liking. The Oilers, at their best, are like Crazy Horse. Loose and raw, at times at the outer edge of what might be called music, but out of this world majestic in moving you emotionally via song. That’s the Oilers. High, high high ceiling, low, low, low floor. Tonight, it’s Nashville.
The Thursday edition of the Lowdown hits at noon, Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will help us preview the game tonight, and we’ll have the latest from Nashville re lines and pairings. It’s a short but important road trip, I’ll be looking for Troy Stecher alongside Nurse and then it’s three chord rock and wait for the mind blowing solos. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
2 wins in a row! Pretty solid game. Nurse playing better. Goaltending and PK needs improvement, especially the PK.
Kulak should have passed it back to Pickard for a goalie goal.
He may have been the only actor that is the best part, no matter how small, of any movie he was in. Sandy Lyle here or Lester Bangs come to mind
Like KK’s bench management on the forwards. No one under 10 minutes and 97 just a shade over 21. The way it should be as the top 6 works to find it’s footing
I’m really pissed Connor and company got the first three and a half minutes of that 4 minute pp. yes I know there was a 30 second timeout, but good lord, you have some other expensive offensive talent sitting on the bench, make them feel like they are part of the team.
Agreed but realistically don’t see PP time changing. I also question how Henrique, Janmark and Brown don’t see the ice during an almost 3 minute 6 on 5 when they are your best defensive line. Happy to see the top line work like the 3rd line for the empty netter. Baby steps.
So this season is looking to be not too bad. Scary first three games.
Well I’ll be damned, a kitty bar the door victory.
That hook on McDavid that wasn’t called right before the Kulak insurance.
I give Picks the 3rd start and Nuse with a very solid game again – great stick for an important clear late.
McDavid made up for it with a crosscheck on the Preds defender – puck went right to Kulak
I like Nurse best when he’s pissed off, when he gets nasty. He had a good game today.
BOOM!!! Kulak with the gravy!
Kulak second of the game.
McDavid with the subtle x-check to cause the turnover, Kulak converts the ENG
Kools wrists in the puck to end the Nashville push, but egregious non-call on the hook of McDavid which likely prevented an earlier goal.
Kulak The Knife.
great save on ROR by Picks. that wasn’t easy
Nashville is a little bit dirtier than I remember.
Jake Neighbours, his 1st of the season in OT to break a 0-0 tie with a nice saucer pass from he whose name cannot be spoken.
5 games, a point per game, no goals against.
He is playing really well. Honestly happy for him too. He would never get the opportunity in Edmonton.
Edmonton will assuredly regret their handling of the player for years.
No one cares about Peter Brogan, Oilers win and their 3rd pairing left handed defender scored 2 goals.
I’ll just abbreviate my response- DTM
I wish the nice young fella the best (especially health given his history) and hope they miss the playoffs
I’m not a panthiest fan. There can only be one
I don’t think many questioned his ability. I don’t know why you infer most of us didn’t like him
No kidding, right. It make Godot feel smarter, strokes his ego, if he pretends that he is the only one who thought/thinks Broberg could be a NHL player.
Hollowberg Derangement Syndrome
It’s obvious he wasn’t old enough to remember Coffey one of the greatest defenceman ever traded at the tender age of 26. Now that was painful.
Yeah, it was a clear mistake the minute it happened. Could cost them the cup…
Like how we get a Kraken update from Trotz’s suite.
How in F#*= can hits be 28-2?
Anylitics at there best
Obviously home rink bias. Having said that Oilers are not a physical team.
Bob barely pays attention. I’ve said that for years.
”Skinner starting to play better now”
About the guy who’s been their best forward for the first 5 games.
The laziness is so bad.
Arvidsson’s best shift as an Oiler.
He had a fantastic headman pass to Janmark on the shift prior too.
Good pinch by nurse. He’s at his best when he is being aggressive like that
Those Draisaitl passes are warm Maple syrup being poured over delicious waffles.
I hate the3rd period defense strategy. We dominate for 2 periods now just try and defend for 20 minutes in our own end.
Bad idea
Are we watching the same game?
Apparently not lol
When’s Nuge going to score. I love it when Nuge scores.
Somewhere in Kansas a house is missing … is the PP witch dead?
this is a useful time for a powerplay
PP 1 for 12. Same personnel as last year. Hopefully soon?????
There is the classic Mahovlich LT reference about taller players and looking like they aren’t skating. And then there is sluggish play and too long shifts, or getting caught when you take one
Drai cherry picks too much what he wants to do. Winning in hockey is about every detail. If you are a top player you out play all of the others, almost all of the time, or you aren’t one. Whatever that looks like
Still some maturity and ego issues going on after a decade plus as I see it. I’m not sure if Leon is aware time is running out as a top player, or the Oilers ability to win cups if he isn’t one anymore with his hefty upcoming contract
You can always pay Connor and Bouch because different positions. But 2nd fiddle forward better be a corker 24/7, reg and post, to justify a heavy cap hit. Off and on, and when or if you deliver, is regular pay performance
Dude we are 5 games into the season.
We are. It’s been a ‘bit’ longer that I have thought this. I’m not alone in it, former non NHL but high level players also see this, it’s not a hot take
Draisaitl has been skating and passing wonderfully.
I think we see the game differently, or are looking for different things
Kaliyev wants out of LA. Imperfect player but we want to stock some talent. How about Lavoie for…. Wait. Never mind.
Puljujarvi V2.0. And Russian. Should fit right in with the Oil cool kids. I mean … what could possibly go wrong.
Doing nothing and hoping all the old guys hang together, that’s what. We need to gather talent. Plus moving to USA when you are 2 kind of makes you American.
But there has to be other talents that are out of favor and 1M
He was raised by Russian parents … no? There is a pretty strong culture there.
Agreed always get more talent. But the player’s wants are key. Kaliyev can’t crack the Oilers team right now so if he wants to go to the A great
McLeod with another goal tonight. Happy for him. I hope he crushes it in Buffalo.
Summarizing!
Neither Wakely nor Akey impacted the scoresheet in a 4-3 win, despite 6 SOG from the former.
How in the world did Draisaitl get a primary assist? Must be a different Draisaitl
Well goaltending remains iffy and the pk is poo (admittedly that was a tough kill) but at least we can score again.
PK way too passive for my tastes, allowing way too many good looks. Feel bad for Pickard.
BOOM!!! Connor goes where the goals are scored and can’t miss that one! Great hard working shift!
Finally McDavid finds twine.
Saros out buying lunch after the L1 forecheck goes Nova and Captain Connor buries it
Finally the big line with some real pressure and elite puck retrieval leading to a goal!
Terrible time for a change, compounded by Nurse dogging it off the bench.
Haha
A bit late but Pick bad
LT says we won’t get Hasek in a trade but Pickard is flopping and swimming around like Hasek.
It’s why he never made it except our team. You need to have Hasek skills to be smaller and play like that these days, or even those days
Mike Palmateer was classic at flopping
He was. My buddy thought his name bcs HNIC was Paul Mateer
Long line change at the end of a double minor. Teams should convert that more often than not. I’m okay with GA there.
Darnell “I don’t need to cover anyone” Nurse everybody.
FFS…take the man!!!
Knights giving up 2 goals in the last 2:30 to lose 4-3 is something I am board with.
The toi distribution is fascinating.
Coaching staff really hesitant to play Emberson.
Arvi with the third lowest toi out of the forwards.
Emberson was a analytics move, for youth and lower cap. He has 30 something NHL games now. Ceci Nurse could not continue and was too expensive for 3RD
Give it time. Arvi needs to settle in and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is hurting already
lol how was Emberson an analytics move? What is an analytics move?
Analytics move is just thrown around when people like a move.
I find this response surprising given you are around here a lot. Multiple comments from many folks about the why you can go back and look at. Cole’s notes – he had very good possession and other stats in SJ on a bad team which speaks highly given a rookie
Wouldn’t be surprised if Arvidsson is hurting….. based on what?
He had back surgery and took a few big hits so far
There isn’t anything in his play that indicates he is anything less than 100% – to my eye.
Does Bouch get railed for that unforced icing or is that reserved for Nurse?
No dirty talk please.
There can only be one not-Kevin-Lowe.
Only Nurse. And we all know why 😂
Perry not getting an assist on that Skinner goal is, well, unfair – he made that play, his teammates and coaches know.
Unfair or unfortunate? The rules are the rules on points at least
Teach your kids to be great in front of the net coaches! It could make them millions of dollars.
More Skinner and Perry.
Get Skinner on PP1.
Neither Nuge or Hyman have been overwhelming to date.
BOOM!!! Vets get it done!!! Skinner with the shovel!!!
Can’t believe they didn’t challenge it, considering how the league had been calling against us…
Hole hell Corey Perry – what a move to the front of the net!
Fantastic stuff. I was begging the org to re-sign him at the end of Feb and so far he’s been a leader by example.
I questioned resigning Perry. I was wrong!
I suspect part of the Oilers poor performance this year is because the entire NHL has had them under a microscope during last year’s playoffs.
I’m sorry folks but Hyman is a floater. I’d put Perry net front
Yup
review to follow
Newer Oilers showing how to play
Leon Draisaitl is currently not a good player with the puck in the offensive zone.
Leon Draisaitl is currently a good player with the puck in the offensive zone.
Draisaitl skating by the guy in the slot and then passing to a Pred. Time for some humility. Your not that good
The announcer while the Oilers have a PP “right now Nashville just wants it more”. McDavid and Draisaitl pinned in the d-zone.