Photo by Fawn Mitchell
We’ve looked at these Oilers from both sides now, from win and lose, and still somehow, we really don’t know the Oilers at all. Consistency is part of the issue, people are hammering the defensemen now and the goalies are getting only mild abuse. Meanwhile, the Glimmer Twins are just waking up and having a stretch at five-on-five.
I’ve maintained for years that Edmonton as a franchise treats the early games of the season like an extended training camp. You can’t blame Kris Knoblauch for all of it, hell Jack Roslovic just got here. It does give the team a look of ill-preparedness, and that’s what we are seeing now.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- Road: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) Actual 1-3-0
- At home to: Montreal (1-0)
- On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 2-3-1, five points in six games
The captain noted the other day that the team is out of sync and I do think the injuries plus extra auditions are having an impact. The five-on-five save percentage is .915, good for tenth in the NHL. The GF-60 is 1.62, No. 29 in the league. I think we can see what the problem is from here.
- Mangiapane-McDavid-Draisaitl: 9:40, 1-3 shots, 72 pct expected goals
- Podkolzin-Nuge-Roslovic 8:10, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 13 pct expected goals
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Podkolzin 5:54, 4-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 64 pct expected goals
- Howard-Henrique-Savoie 5:04, 2-2 shots, 25 pct expected goals
- Mangiapane-Nuge-Roslovic 4:19, 1-1 shots, 62 pct expected goals
I like Andrew Mangiapane with McDavid, would love to see that duo with Zach Hyman in November. The Nuge line doesn’t have a driver, the results should have been expected. Podkolzin-Draisaitl, as hinted at from the third line above, works. I don’t know why, chemistry is difficult to explain. The Henrique and two kids line has played a total of 11 minutes five-on-five, owns a 3-6 shot share, 15 percent expected goals and is 0-5 in high-danger chances.
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 17:24, 4-9 shots, 0-2 goals, 43 pct expected goals
- Kulak-Emberson: 17:04, 1-0 goals, 7-4 shots, 57 pct expected goals
- Nurse-Stecher: 15:13, 1-8 shots, seven pct expected goals
The coaching staff elevated Kulak-Emberson on merit, and if we don’t see Jake Walman slide in for the Ottawa game then he’s really hurt. The top pair had a tough time of it by the fancies, that’s usually an area of strength. I don’t believe the Oilers have a poor defense, but do believe that finding Nurse a partner who can wheel with what’s coming is exhausting. This has been years, people.
I don’t believe goaltending is the problem. I also believe Connor Ingram is going to play NHL games for the Oilers this season. Once here, if he shows more consistency than Stuart Skinner, Ingram will win the net.
CONDORS
Roby Jarventie didn’t play yesterday, so the spotlight shone on Rem Pitlick and James Hamblin. Absolute quality from both men, I know Rem Pitlick is an older AHL contract but my goodness he looks like he could still play in the NHL. Hamblin has been great since the opening faceoff. On the other end, Josh Samanski’s line (with Max Jones and Rhett Pitlick) is leaking and a tweak will be necessary. This is a fun team.
Strong game from Luke Prokop and from Cam Dineen yesterday. I think this team needs a true shutdown blue and I’m hoping it’s Riley Stillman. Matt Tomkins stopped 30 of 34 on a night when Coachella Valley was making plays. His .843 save percentage took a beating in Game 1 and will take a long time to reach .900 (should he get there). Connor Ingram, in his first game, posted a .955 save percentage. Calm feet, great approach. I think Stan Bowman might have done something very good.
On the Lowdown today we’ll talk about the Oilers, Jays, Elks and NFL. We’ll tee up the Jays-Mariners game tonight, with Rachel Kryshak, CTO of Betalytics and ESPN contributor discussing what to do with the Oilers. Jason Gregor will pop in with the latest on the Oilers, Jays and more. We’ll also have Declanations Momma MMA. Sports 1440 and You Tube, noon to 2pm.
Why are the Edmonton Oilers struggling to find lines that work?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6730878/2025/10/20/edmonton-oilers-lines-mcdavid-draisaitl-knoblauch/
“Patience is the key for the Oilers.”
You compared them to an old farm truck last year. My metaphor: a 60s British sports car, requiring endless tinkering before roaring down the crooked roads leading to the SCF.
And yes, “We wait.”
On a team that is deprived of scoring it was nice to see our 4th liner get a lucky goal as Ulmark totally whiffed on the softball shot.
30 games into the 2025 season the record of the Blue Jays was 14 wins 16 losses. Let that sink in.
That “may contain course language” warning came a little too late. 😂🤬
That man loves him some F-bombs! He wears his passion on his sleeve.
First was fun/cool, didn’t need to drop the second – in my opinion.
Oh well, not going to worry too much about (others will for sure).
Never in doubt!!!!
4 More
Bring on the Dodgers!
Springer will never have to pay for a drink in Toronto again.
WS Schedule:
G1 in TOR, Friday, Oct. 24
G2 in TOR, Saturday, Oct. 25
G3 in LA, Monday, Oct. 27
G4 in LA, Tuesday, Oct. 28
G5 in LA, Wednesday, Oct. 29*
G6 in TOR, Friday, Oct. 31*
G7 in TOR, Saturday, Nov.1*
5×5 offense can stagnate if the Oil don’t get fast break opportunities. This has been pretty much a recurring theme for good parts of this and prior seasons.
Let’s face it – no one is afraid of the Oil 5×5 perimeter offense whether McD and Drai are together or not. Nor should they be. Teams maintaining good defensive structure are more than happy to watch the Oil move the puck along the perimeter without generating much of a legitimate scoring chance. Frustration sets in, often resulting in a low danger shot from distance by the blue. Not effective and really boring hockey to watch, IMO.
You beat structure with chaos. There has to be an Oil net-front agitating presence every shift to make life difficult for the defenders. KK needs to demand it. Until this changes, the losses will pile up.
No Hyman, no Kane, no Perry. Who on each line is going to step up and do the dirty work?
SPRINGER DINGER!!! ⚾️🚨
Man what a comeback season
Indeed. Such fun baseball all season long.
I don’t think we are giving other teams enough credit for the 97’s and 29’s lack of offense. I’m positive that videos of them playing together have been extensively analyzed and I don’t see either player changing what they do in the offensive zone. They have to change it up. I don’t think that should be playing together full time and our coach certainly should not be telling everyone that they will be. The players also have to change up their play in the offensive zone- 97 has to stop trying to carry the puck to the blue paint and stuff it in from there. Why not get to the hash marks and try a slap shot occasionally? Why not slow down and let his wingers join the rush? 29 likes to stop on the boards at the blue line and set up a play from there. Everyone has seen him lose the puck with that play time and again. They are both marvellous players, but ….
I dont’ credit the opposition for that. I’m pretty sure they have all the tape on Kaprizov and MacKinnon and of Eichel/Stone playing together – they have found ways to produce at established plus levels of ability.
You’re assuming McDavid, MacKinnon, Eichel and Stone play similar games.
They don’t.
While McDavid generally relies on blinding speed and his ability to deke out one or more players, MacKinnon also has those skills but is much more likely to utilize the elite skills of Necas, Lehkonen and Makar to maintain possession and create chances.
Eichel is a far different beast in that his game is more cerebral while relying on a powerful shot to score and is an accomplished two way player.
Stone is the ultimate possession and set up man which plays naturally into Eichel’s skill set and Barbashev bring size and grit to that line.
I’m not assuming anything.
I don’t agree that other teams have watched film on McDavid/Drai and now, all of a sudden, have figured out how to stop them but haven’t been able to do the same with other stars producing at historical norms.
A comment somewhere along the way got me thinking about team records out of the blocks the next season after a Cup final appearance for the first ten games. I had a few minutes to tinker with this and came up with this list (all Oilers appearances, naturally). I don’t really know what to make of this, but I think it helps to have a dynasty.
Oilers lost to the Islanders 4-1 in 1983
Oilers first ten games 83/84: 7-2-1
Islanders first ten games 83/84: 4-6-0
Oilers beat the Islanders 4-1 in 1984
Oilers first ten games 84/85: 8-0-2
Islanders first ten games 84/85: 6-4-0
Oilers beat the Flyers 4-1 in 1985
Oilers first ten games 85/86: 8-2-0
Flyers first ten games 85/86: 8-2-0
Oilers beat the Flyers 4-3 in 1987
Oilers first ten games 87/88: 6-4-0
Flyers first ten games 87/88: 3-5-2
Oilers beat the Bruins 4-0 in 1988
Oilers first ten games 88/89: 5-3-2
Bruins first ten games 88/89: 7-2-1
Oilers beat the Bruins 4-1 in 1990
Oilers first ten games 90/91: 2-6-2
Bruins first ten games 90/91: 5-4-1
Oilers lost to Carolina 4-3 in 2006
Oilers first ten games 06/07: 2-6-0
Carolina first ten games 06/07: 4-4-2
Oilers lost to Florida 4-3 in 2024
Oilers first ten games 24/25: 4-5-1
Florida first ten games 24/25: 6-3-1
Oilers lost to Florida 4-2 in 2025
Oilers record so far: 2-3-1
Panthers record so far: 3-4-0
… we wait …
Carfagna has been officially assigned by the Oilers to Bako and is cleared to play.
Hopefully Akey is not far behind – Holty did say both were close on Sunday’s broadcast.
Stauff says Kapaenen is “going to be out a little while”.
Well, on IR he goes opening up the roster spot to activate Regula when he’s ready.
Kicks the can down the road again until Hyman is ready to be activated when they will need to move players out for cap space, not just roster spots.
I have a good feeling it’s Varsho time to be a hero tonight. Booook it…….
The coach is simply not identifying the oppositions defensive game plans, he use to make all the right adjustments and attack.
Maybe it was Coffey identifying what was going on and Knoblauch would act on it.
Oilers are at 1.82 GA-60 and 2.28 XGA-60 at five-on-five this season.
Oilers were 2.52 GA-60 and 2.38 XGA-60 at five-on-five last season.
Oilers are at 1.62 GF-60 and 2.24 XGF-60 at five-on-five this season.
Oilers were at 2.48 GF-60 and 2.84 XGF-60 at five-on-five last season.
The offense is off for sure but six games is a small sample. My guess is regression takes care of this, with 97 and 29 leading the way.
Coach needs to step screwing around with the lines and playing forwards to their strengths.
Example: Frederic. Supposed to be banger at center. Gets moved to a line with 29/97 – two guys who play with the puck and he’s on the wing. Then finally gets moved to 3C for a game then gets moved to 3RW. His moves are detrimental to some players.
Example: Are Howard and Savoie 4th liners? What’s the point here?
Example: 29/97 have done nothing together 5v5. But let’s break ’em up, put ’em back together.
The coach can be better.
It’ll be nice to have Walman back as he strikes me as a Gamer. Any news on Regula?
No news and any news from the coach would likely be meaningless.
That frustrating when you think a player is only out for 1 or 2 games and then it turns into weeks. I don’t get the Walman injury why bring him on the trip just to play him in the last game on the 5 game trip. You would think he would get better treatment at home then going from city to city?
I’m very happy he’s on the trip and plays tomorrow (presuming).
He’s been on the ice with the team for many skates and they started at the sane hotel, in NYC, for 5 nights – I’m sure whatever treatment he needed, he got.
Walman just signed his retirement contract. He’s only played 267 games and he’s 29. There’s 2 ways to look at it 1) He’s fresh as a daisy for the 2nd half of his career 2) The man is injury prone when he was young what’s he gonna be like at 33-34-35-36-37? I really like Walman I would of signed him for the same contract but he’s a low risk at best to cover his contract.
Injury prone is a hard label to shake but its mostly a matter of luck. Sidney Crosby missed a ton of games early in his career, from concussions and other issues, but has been pretty durable, for the most part, ever since.
The problem has a lot more to do with bringing players back too soon (and players are often their own worst enemies with this) than being injury prone. So if they’re taking it slow with Wallman, I’m ok with it.
I also wanted a shorter term, 4-5 years but he’ll be value for that cap hit for that period if he can play the majority of the games, in particular in the playoffs.
I don’t feel we need the fancy stats for this team.
Build four lines so everyone is fresh enough in April.
Spread out the juices minutes in the game.
88-10 are third liners.
49-51 are Seventh Defenceman.
Spend more time with puck in the other teams home base.
Keep the high danger shots against below the league average.
Ya stats show things, but at the end of the day the deal is pretty straight forward, more GF than GA
Im not inferring new coach is needed. Just new looks.
The numbers are dropping
Powerplay
Penalty kill
5X5 scoring
Fresh voices have arrived. Even Bowman won with a fast team, everybody started to emulate a fast game after Chicago.
Coach had a strategy, its not playing out. Time to change up a few things. Assign some key roles like penalty kill and let them develop.
Even is they were squeaking out a few wins, I would still suggest this. Teams are ready for this squad as it sits today. Change it up and you are back to a very difficult team to beat.
8 more years of whatever it is that Frederic is supposed to bring
Somebody needs to rile him up as he’s been way to passive along with most of the team.
I want to cheer for him and defend him but he’s making it tough – I mean, 80% of his puck touches seem to be negative and he’s not hitting, he’s not agitating, he’s taking bad penalties, he’s giving the puck away high in the offensive zone…..
Even I, the optimistic one, is starting to wonder if there is more good coming – but there has to be.
If you watch him in Boston he was a force out of nowhere. I’m still hoping he’s still hampered from the high ankle sprain and we have yet to see peak Frederic.
Strudwick had one and said it takes a looong time to get back to normal skating. Drai’s affected him for a fair bit as well the nest season
This team reminds me of the 08-09 Oilers, looked good on paper, started good, then fell off a cliff.
Problem with “retooling” a roster is finding chemistry and finding the right players to fit in with the current roster.
Eye test for me is the Oilers are faster but play solely on the perimeter, they play small & are predictable.
Yes, goaltending is still an issue.
I remember Sather talking about roster turnover, he said, ‘I turnover 1/3 of the team yearly, adding people that have never won. It keeps the team hungry!!!”
We should note that the panthers aren’t doing well either and have injuries some carrying over as we have
This again to me points to leadership behind the bench. They should know if Gregor does who has written about it how teams that play as much as finalists have often start slow, and had the players not going on about the start but focusing on team play and just go until it sorts itself out
Keep the headspace and expectations in the right place
I do believe the hangover is real. This year I thought it would be less conspicuous due to youth and new bodies adding the energy. Coach is going back to last years plan much much too early.
Play top duo way too much with rest of team as passengers. Doesnt work. Been there, done that.
I think they are missing having a full time proper 3C. Bowman seems to know what is going on. I hope he figures it out
Meanwhile the coach probably needs to give the guys some time that is consistent. Things are still fluid with new guys and Hyman, but it seems he is want to micro manage, as was Woody
Some tinkering is necessary for injury or slumps, but players need time to gel with who they are playing with. All but a few can do it with whoever, but it does seem to be affecting the big 3. Bouch more with who the Duo are playing with s opposed to his partner
A big issue as Connor mentioned was they aren’t playing connected. The D and F aren’t separate, they’re a unit. Or supposed to be. Every line shuffle makes the breakout pass less certain as the D don’t necessarily know the tendencies of the line as constituted if it’s always changing
Or retrieving. The puck moving up depends as much on forwards supporting as just making a pass
The Panthers don’t have Tkachuk or Barkov so it’s more expected imo.
Agree with the 2nd part. If they get through a 10 game segment ~.500 it’s not the end of the world. The verbal about starting on time is just lip service, like every injury KK has ever spoken about.
For sure, now Kulikov out for time. They weren’t great to start last season either IIRC. third finals in a row
Not that I feel sorry for them and their ‘weakened’ bodies. I don’t like that our players weren’t prepared well for a normal and known occurence. It’s worse for Connor who seems to get frustrated at a lot of things, even if he acts calm off ice. The main job is keeping him at his best, Leon seems less prone to it
Boring but I think simplest takes:
Previous teams have gotten up for these games just fine.
BS excuse.
No disagreement that it is a BS excuse. But I do think that this is the reason for the lacklustre play
For sure – so then that falls to the Coach and the leadership group to fix it.
Lacking even an Assistant that can tear into this crew, and fire things up on the bench during a game when necessary is a problem.
It might not be a BS excuse it could be a BS reason.
That’s why you give the newer fresher players a push.
Yes, it’s hard to get up for October games after going to the final. And harder when you’re missing a key component (Hyman).
Strudwick hit on something yesterday on the GYB podcast that Kulak said – which was what the coach said after the game (and Stauffer has been saying the entire road trip). The team is not putting pucks on net. They’re forcing the puck to the middle, trying to make extra passes and “passing up” on shots from prime areas.
Also, 97 is not using his speed to back defenders off and is playing like a turnover machine. Plus he’s not been very good so far in the d-zone (missed his mark on Larkin’s goal).
The attention to detail with this team is still at pre-season level right now.
Is there any chance that the reason that Philp was out of the lineup for 3 games was because of the late penalty he took against the Canucks in retaliation for Kane lighting up Regula (twice)?
I mean there is an argument it was a “bad play” defending a one-goal lead late.
I don’t know what this coach thinks of that play.
Kulak was more guilty than Philp, but Philp got the penalty. So are you suggesting the coach should take the ref’s word on the play and punish the wrong player.
Just asking the question……
Interesting question though.
Doubt it, not 3 games but I do think Knoblauch highly frowns upon such things. He certainly drives or encourages the gentleman style of play seen by the Oilers. Problem is, Oilers are not punishing on the poewer play. And the old “even up” NHL will never assign the bad guys more than a 2:1 okay maybe 3;1 penalty ratio, no matter who they murder.
I’m surprised Beiska and Pronger called it a dumb penalty yet it could of cost us points against a Division rival. Newer players have a shorter leash.
There were glaring errors all over the ice in Detroit, many/most by the vets including 97. They have a lot of new forwards to settle in, and Nurse and Bouch have both been poor.
They look like they are trying to find their highly tuned precision game. It’s time for more Ford and less Ferrari on the ice.
I thought Philp goal or not had a solid game and was a + in the lineup. I’m not sure what to do about Rico and it would appear stapling Fredric to 3 wing is the move where he can hopefully settle into to being useful before experimenting at C.
The Oilers are a perimeter team. So they can go cold offensively if they are not at the top of their game, and if other teams are capable of pushing them there and defending the cross ice passes. If the Oilers do not beat the opposition up the ice, they are defendable.
They never have anyone driving the middle. They never have anyone in the high slot.
I think they play offense that way because they are a weak defending team. Attacking the middle of the defense means the puck is coming back at you more often than if one owns zone time controlling the puck on the perimeter. (Which is why Bouchard’s advanced stats are deceptively good).
The Oilers are currently not moving the puck up quickly enough. Teams have studied the tape of the playoffs last year, and are taking away the quick breakouts. The forwards are going to have to come back deeper and support the D breaking out.
The Oilers have not been able to get teams on their backfoot. If they are not able to do that, they are a perimeter team that is defendable.
Good take. I see it the same way, but haven’t expressed it as well. Bowman I think has improved the speed of the forwards which should help this, hasn’t yet. To me there is a choice to make. You are either a fast team, or you are a heavy team. Not exclusively, but as a chosen structure and identity
They should have the players to do something different than last season, or the last few. I am not seeing much creativity, I think KK may be too risk averse. He shouldn’t be now they paid him
I agree there is little creativity.
Even Scotty Bowman was pretty willing to do what it took. I remember him being asked about countering the Devils’ ( I think) trapping and he said he’d put Fedorov at D and he’s skate through all of them
Montreal Canadians and Oilers were both fast and heavy and they dictated the style more often than not. Oilers do not dictate in the early going of season in my opinion. Also Rob Brown mention in a post game that the team lost some grit in the youth movement from last year and i agree. They need some “jerks” to set tone and have some sort of net front presence.
Kane did not play last year. Frederic was brought in for the next eight years to do that job. Skinner and Arvidsson were small and not that physical. Skinner is about the most buttery soft player ever.
Brown was not that physical.
The Oilers are missing their fast break. Their offense and offensive rhythm comes from that..
Seems that Perry and Hyman filled the role of net front presence and are not there today. In Browns commentary he suggested Avridsson was small but played an aggressive game, he also suggested that Brown did go the net though not like Perry. If they live and die on their fast break they will not have much success as the opponents are using hi pressure to disrupt it.
Perry averaged 10 min a game 5v5 though, not a key piece a lot of the time reg season. Making sure they aren’t tiring top players would help their transition game, get the forwards coming back and supporting more
Oilers still do not have a “meat and potatoes” game. Dig, grind, net front, corners, pick up your man. They don’t like it and don’t do it.
Oilers have a high skill game. Swing your stick, stick check, quick ups, puck possession, go to the corner for more possession time instead of high danger shooting areas. Dipsey doodle, pretty goal. It is a lot harder to play on a regular basis. Thus the higher highs, and lower lows.
This is no surprise, we have seen this for years now.
A team that comes ready to outwork the Oilers can beat them.
But if you have muckers and diggers, and they are grinding away, these players and this type of play opens space for McDavid, this is what goal scorers need. McDavid has been first back, first in the corners, dominating possession. Its exhausting…..and its predictable.
Worst part, Oilers don’t seem to know who they are or what they need. They get mixed up. McDavid now a penalty killer. That novelty has played out and wore off. Wingers don’t know if they should be floating so McDavid can feed them, or throwing as many hits as they can.
Wait, since when was it McDavids job to be puck retriever and feed the second tier scorers?
Anyway, they keep attracting wrong player types to get more goals. Can anybody throw a hit? And how many times must we see an Oiler player “covering” their man yet not covering him at all as he slams the puck in? Again, they are butter soft, easy to play against. Butter soft attracts physical attention on your top players.
One – their roster recipe is off and they are confused. Identity is lost.
Two – coaching is refusing to see the problems, and refusing to adjust. They want to do what worked before, not recognizing that McDavid cannot to all that for them again and again. Every argument is “we were in finals two years in a row so why change….”
I think they would like playing the panthers system. Stay below the puck, support behind that, and battle your ass off. It’s easy (for those that aren’t great at thinking the game in play) and it works. Obviously
It’s about pace and pressure, overloading which helps offensive bcs it’s not so spread out. There’s risk in it but so what? It creates breakdowns etc it would be more fun and seems more like the core
They don’t battle well as a group and don’t have great sticks, but could spend the season working on it. Or could have. Having closer support might also help breakouts
Great article here and at The Athletic.
Lines are always suck a crap shoot. We never see them stick for longer then 2 games, let alone 2 periods. I do hope they move to the true 3 headed monster and run McDavid, Draisatl and Nuge centering their own lines. Once Hyman is back we have the depth to actually do this.
Mangiapane. McDavid. Hyman
Podkolzin. Draisatl. Savoie/Roslovic
Fredrick. Nuge. Savoie/Roslovic
Henrique-Philp. Kapanen/Janmark/Lazar
Send the kids down who can clear without waivers. let them play big minutes and some confidence, since they can’t score right now.
These lines are perfect and seemingly obvious to the casual observer.
A mix of skill, defence, and forechecking on each line
Keep wingers on the side they are most comfortable
Keep Philp in the lineup
Oilers have activated Walman.
I expect Walman in over Stech should make a material tangible difference to the on ice product.
Well one is a 7 million dollar defender while the other is a AHL defender, so we should hope so.
Its just fake news OP
I trust Oilers PR on injury status much more than the coach.
Oilers are a boring team to watch as they are so fixated on the system it’s zapping the emotion from them. No hits, no scraps, no rookie infusion, just up and down low event hockey. Sather must shake his head as you know he world of surrounded Leon-McDavid with better protection the pounding on these two over the last few years has taking its toll.
The only jam they had was sent out west, and upon his return he took out Regula.
Maybe making Coffey the head coach was the move.
Could you imagine the hissy fits that would have been thrown around here.
It would be glorious.
What hockey, how about those Jays? I can’t get too down on the Oilers for losing focus and mailing it in right now, I’m doing the same! (don’t mention it to the boss). Hey I love your buddy Lansky’s appearances on your show, but I got to stop following his X. The man is a downer, John Schneider is doing a great job with the Jays but he’s getting the “’74” treatment every time the broadcast shows the manager on screen. He can tell us how right he was after the season’s over, but he should get onside while they’re still playing. This has been a run I’ve waited 30 plus years for and I’m enjoying the hell out of it!
The question is what is going on with Jake Walman. Various sources online indicated that he as activated from IR and expected to play this past weekend.
Macro level – this team has played one decent hockey game so far. And even then couldn’t score goals.
They keep hiring coaches who can’t embrace an attacking style.
If you go over the last 3, the same thing happens. New coach benefits as the players play freely and score, a short stretch of bad leads to a ratcheting down attempt, they score even less, then the coach ratchets down further, trying to “limit mistakes” instead of just remembering his team can score 5 goals a whole bunch…and you take a team with a super high ceiling and wreck them.
Further – they should get the A squad from the 80s to have a couple sessions with this team about how they approached regular seasons as clearly the best team in the world. They did not effing coast and “just make the playoffs”. It is the stupidest thing this current group does and it needs to end. And end yesterday. Several years ago actually – but those Cups have already been wasted on a non-hockey market who doesn’t give a damn.
The Oilers are doing one thing well. Their xGA/60 is top six in the league.
Now, they’re struggling to score at 5v5. That’s a combination of only really having two d playing at a top four level (Ekholm and Bouchard), aging roster, not having a lot of actual top six talent. Also poor shooting percentage, of course.They are in the bottom ten in league in xgf/60.
In the top nine in minutes played at 5v5,
the Oilers have:
4-Podkolzin. Scored 8 goals last season
5-Frederic. Scored 8 goals last season.
6-Mangiapane. Scored 14 goals.
7-Nuge. 20 goals.
8-Kapanen. 5 goals.
9- Philip. 0 goals.
Top 12.
10-Savoie 0.
11-Henrique 12.
12-Howard. 0.
Now 3 are rookies essentially.
Kapanen is not a guy a good team wants in their top nine. Frederic has had better days. Nuge is fine, but historically a complimentary player at 5v5. Henrique looks cooked.
Now imagine that xGF/60 if you eliminated even half of the unforced errors. We would be at least 3-2-1 and still waiting for the offense to wake up.
Guy scores his first goal during his best game as a professional, gets benched for multiple games.
They’re not scoring due to systems and the coach.
They have 2 of the best talents in the game, Nuge puts up points with talent, skilled players are being played with the skeleton of Henrique, Mangiapane was having great chemistry with Nuge, then more coaching to ruin that.
Podkolzin clearly works with Draisaitl, let’s use that as little as possible.
The coach doesn’t know his head from his arse currently.
I didn’t agree with Philip getting benched. However, I do think the problems go far beyond coaching.
Thr Nurse Stetcher pairing is getting absolutely torched.
We’re missing Hyman big time who would add a lot of balance to the top six.
We’re also really missing Walman and Regula.
Knoblauch’s perceived coaching IQ will go up 30 points when Walman and Regula are back in the lineup.
But that is roster building right? If coaching gets better when players get better?
The teams beating us have less talent but accomplishing more. Thats coaching.
Agreed about coaching. KK isn’t a profane yeller like many are – the beatings will continue until moral improves – but the same results happen
You can’t treat a thoroughbred like a Clydesdale. Or vice versa. Connor seems way off, and what he has needed was a GM to get the right players, and a coach that could respond to where he is at and guide all of his powers in the right direction
There is a balance between offense and defense in every sport. Whatever it is that they are doing isn’t working, and the players can’t sustain it. They always go through phases of sloppy play
And we can know it isn’t working because it doesn’t look right to watch. The Oilers don’t do normal things offensively. I think they have relied on having three elite offensive players, as opposed to developing the right system for the team, and a team identity
No matter how I try to understand what they are doing or not doing, it seems to always point back to a lack of leadership, off and on the ice. Talk is cheap, the proof is in the pudding, for players and coaches. This GM is holding up his end of the bargain so far to me. Man I wish they would have hired that super experienced 3 cup guy
I thought we would have the McDavid signing bounce cat but it’s seems to be having the opposite effect like the drama of the signing waisted a lot of energy.
They need at least one intense voice back there. Yet management seems allergic to making that hire.
I’ve always liked the concept of ‘pairs’ throughout the forward lines. Keep two players together as much as possible and rotate the rest as needed. For example McD – Hyman (Tomasek), Drais – Podz, Philip-Rosl, Fred-Kap.
The constant shuffling is preventing any kind of chemistry
Are we actually, finally going to have the conversation about what is going on with McDavid?
He’s been absolutely awful. Like he’s forgotten how to play and is just out there skating.
They don’t seem to have a coach that knows what levers to pull with him. How to get the most out.
He refuses to shoot the puck, so teams play him differently and he can absolutely be shut down.
I’m coming to the point where I don’t think he’s a center at the moment. He doesn’t defend properly and isn’t doing enough as a puck transporter either.
Put him on the wing for 20 games and tell him his only job is goals. See what happens.
It comes down to tendencies. IIRC you’re a pretty good player. In my case I have a handful of tendencies. As a right shot I go high glove 75% of the time. My go to deke down the left side is attack-the-triangle to my backhand-then forehand shot. Down the right side it’s often a toe drag to get to the middle. These aren’t conscious things they just happen in the heat of the moment.
When I play a high end league game this stuff works as no one really knows me. But when I play pickup against the same guys I’ve played for the past decade they can frustrate me even tho the level of player is much lower.
My point is that this is the most scouted player in history. Everyone knows what he’s hard wired to do. It’s very easy to understand why he can no longer create at will.
Then Edmonton needs to be far more creative. Swap Nurse and McDavid. Treat your goalies like baseball pitchers.
Innovate for Christ’s sake.
If that’s all it is, then he is a very limited “generational talent” and is also lacking the appropriate coach, who can spot things like this and course-correct.
He’s also not working with slop for teammates. There are enough weapons around.
I’d very seriously put him on the wing and give him only the job of goals. Right now they want him to be a quarterback – he isn’t actually one naturally. Make him a WR for a minute. He’ll do well with it, and likely find a bunch of other things while he’s at it.
How many middle of the road Wingers did Crosby turn into 30+ goal scorers?
These periods of poor play are starting to be more common with 97 now. He breaks out for a bunch eventually, but when you get that much ice time these ineffective periods really drag the team down.
KK needs to cut his ice time in the down times, but of course they are mostly trailing when he plays poor so KK doubles down on more ice for 97 in hopes he can save the day
Normally I’m the one down on McDavid. But come on! The last two playoffs he has scored at a 130-point pace per 82. In the playoffs!
McDavid is generational. It’s not like he just suffered a career-alterning injury. This is a short six-game stretch. The long-term story is the real story.
He produced but, in this past season’s playoffs, it came with being poor, in aggregate, defensively (horrible in the SCF) and a 21-21 goal share. 50% goal share (with lots of McDavid/Leon load up) is, well, not going to win championships.
Buchard was 27-20 goals
The goal share the prior years was off the charts good.
mcdavids fine goals will come.he will break out soon but no more 60 goal seasons. lets say 30 goals 80 to 100 assists a year player
I predict the low end: 25 goals and 80 assists for the next three years or so. A new plateau, well worth 12.5 million but not a whole hell of a lot more.
McDavid’s first 5 games of this season are perhaps his worst at a pro level. Of course McDavid is worth more than goals and assists. He is a leader, he is the team. That matters. But I am increasingly afraid we have been to the mountaintop and the heights of individual spectacle are behind us for this player on a consistent basis. I can’t wait to be proven wrong, as early as tonight.
Maybe he’s burning out. Better tell him that and he’ll go WHAAAAT??? And we’ll go
WHAAAAT??? And three cups later we’ll go WHAAAAT??? LOL
Leaders that don’t produce or defend reliably should be at the low end of the cap. 12.5M demands world class play, as it says you are a top player in the best league. Matt Hendricks was a leader, Derek Ryan
That’s not near enough from him.
I accept that teams have studies the Panthers’ and are using a very strong forecheck, close gaps, etc.
I am however tired of Panther praise that doesn’t question their integrity.
Until Game 4 that series was even, go look at the discourse surrounding the series until that point. It was anyone’s Cup.
Then Florida just overpowered Edmonton for games 5 and 6. They beat Edmonton to nearly every single puck in those two games. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t just happen.
Did Edmonton collapse, or was something else going on?
Now the Panthers face a barrage of injuries. Well, peptide abuse in the more long term leads to muscle weakening. Maybe all of these coincidences and circumstances amount to something more sinister, and obvious.
Forever a 2025 SCF Truther.
Some day thee might be a book about it.
As we were saying then, it sure had shades of LA’s Cups, or at least one of them, and we know now they were taking everything they could get their hands on, so to speak
This would require a degree of investigative reporting impossible from our current roster of pundits who use their platforms to retain/seek access not truth — bought and paid for almost entirely by sport betting houses.
I think with Florida as well there is a very interesting yet troubling political geography that backgrounds this whole speculation.
I would write the book if anyone wanted to give me money and time to do so.
When your team leader is on the juice it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure he has influence on his teammates who he spends 18 hrs a day for 8 month stretches of time with.
And then plop that down in a geography with the most access to these kinds of drugs in North America (south FLA), and within an organization that has been overt in its acceptance of a political regime whose overt project is weakening democracy.
Its not to say that Winnipeg or Buffalo are moral paragons, they could be juiced if they wanted to be. But it is to suggest culture and environment matters. If something becomes more acceptable in one place it can quickly become rationalized as part of a larger societal paradigm shifting “project” of doing what is “right” even if it means going about it in a way that before you would have thought was wrong.
Every single thing aligns to suggest FLA cheated in 2025.
What I do not understand is why there isn’t standard drug testing before, during, after the playoffs?
I’m pretty much sports illiterate, but this is a thing at the Olympics, no? Is drug testing a thing in any other pro sports league?
This comment is so absurd
Tell me why.
I’m really worried about McDavid’s hands. He is seemingly beyond his ability to coast while retaining a level above his peers. His foot speed is still there, but what made him magic was that the other component parts could actually keep up. I still think he can turn it on and be the best player in the world, but that gap as well is shrinking, even on his own team, as we saw last season.
For too many missed passes, too many instances of loosing the puck on the boards, too many instances where he is incapable of stick-handling his way out of “the phone booth.”
This puts the Oilers in a bind: You want McDavid to float and conserve while still contributing because the Oilers need a 12.5 million dollar scorer who can become a 20 million dollar contributor with the flick of a switch. But what we are seeing is a 15 million dollar player playing like a 10 million dollar player consistently.
Maybe Connor knows something about his game, and 12.5 has more meaning than we know.
I might suggest spending next summer in the stick-handling program of Perry Pearn’s hockey school at NAIT. It helped me!
Better trade him to the Leaf’s then.
I share the concerns – the hands have not been what they once were and this is the third season now.
This isn’t to say there can’t, or wont’, be flashes of doing amazing things at high speed but the consistency is gone, at least for now.