The Oilers are through 10 games and are starting to find answers. Coach Kris Knoblauch’s circle of trust is a small population, they could safely sit inside a four-door sedan. That has to change, but there does appear to be a path forward emerging through the fog of early-season uncertainty.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

• At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) Actual 1-0-1
• Road: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) Actual 2-3-0
• At home to: Montreal (1-0) Actual 1-0
• On the road to: Seattle, Vancouver (1-1) Actual 0-1-1
• At home to: Mammaoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
• Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
• Actual Record: 4-4-2, 10 points in 10 games

Mammoth are a young, fun team that is also on a roll. This is going to be a real test for the home side tonight.

I’m always interested in seeing trends, even though we are not close to the 200 minutes at five-on-five the smart math people tell me is the beginning of trust in numbers. I wrote about Vasily Podkolzin today at The Athletic, he was a player I identified as being a possible offensive spike for 2025-26. I predicted a slight increase (from .29 to .33 pts-game) in my reasonable expectations artice from mid-August. He is currently 1-4-5 in 10 games, which is a nice start but a small sample.

As you know, and for some of you this has no value, I believe five-on-five points-60 is the best way to value offensive output. It’s as close as we can get to a level playing field, and that’s what I’m looking for in these numbers. All of the power-play kids are known offensive movers. Who is helping at five-on-five, which is the equivalent of scoring on the NHL’s mean streets?

• Noah Philp 2.68
• Vasily Podkolzin 2.23
• Kasperi Kapanen 1.69
• Jack Roslovic 1.54
• Leon Draisaitl 1.5
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.44
• Adam Henrique 1.07
• Connor McDavid 1.06
• Andrew Mangiapane 0.92
• David Tomasek 0.74
• Ike Howard 0.69
• Trent Frederic 0.49
• Matt Savoie 0.00

This is 10 games, but I do think Podkolzin is an early story worth discussing. Noah Philp should be playing every game (in my opinion) but Curtis Lazar has a 2.68 goals-60 at five-on-five (I didn’t list him because it’s just two games) so there’s a case to be made there. I’d run Philp.

The other takeaway is that regression is going to hit the Glimmer Twins like the riff on the Stones’ Bitch and take both to soaring heights soon. Real soon.

I have seen some comments about McDavid eroding as an offensive player, I’m sure that’s true (both big men are approaching 30) but this current level of production is either exhaustion, injury, bad luck or the upset of line shuffling. It can’t be a cliff this great because we have 100 years of hockey history to tell us McDavid doesn’t have a cliff yet. I wrote about the two men and the next decade here, ending the piece with “the class of the next decade starts with McDavid. The numbers suggest he will ease into his 30s with remarkable grace. The great news is that Draisaitl won’t be far behind.”

These cats are all-time greats and have many years of incredible offense ahead of them. Don’t let anyone tell you different. The need to be wise online is the cocaine of the masses and leads even brilliant people to the dumbest damned conclusions. Let history be your guide.

On the Lowdown today, Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will be our feature guest, and we’ll talk about his recent article addressing Oilers roster questions. We’ll also talk about an epic World Series game that ended about five minutes ago. Sports 1440 and You Tube, noon to 2pm.