I love Nashville, was raised on its music and immersed myself in its lore. The best part of Nashville is the story behind the songs. Take Sweet Dream Baby. A woman named Cindy Walker answered the phone one day in 1961, and received a very specific request. Roy Orbison was recording an album and all of the songs had a similar feel and pace. They were ballads, with giant orchestra swells and ‘dum, dum, dum-dee-do-way’ backups singers.
The Orbison people needed an uptempo song with sparse instrumentation and unusual chord progressions. Oh, and they needed it right away. The result was one of my favorite songs ever, a brilliant piece of pop music that has been recorded dozens of times over the decades. Nashville might be shy on accountants and engineers and architects, but their songwriter/60 is off the damned charts. God bless the girls and boys who make the noise on 16th Avenue.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 3-1-2, eight points in six games
- Season Record: 23-16-8, 54 points in 47 games
The Oilers are plodding along and it would be easy to grow restless over opportunity lost in the dog days of winter. However, I projected the team to produce 4-1-1 through six games (nine points) and they are 3-1-2 (eight points) in the first six in January. They are matriculating, and we have to consider several roster spots are holding open auditions. Fluid Stanley team? Man, that would be something.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 12:22, 6-7 shots, 48X, 1-2 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen 12:36, 9-6 shots, 1-0 goals, 48X, 1-3 HDSC
- Mangiapane-Roslovic-Savoie 9:01, 5-3 shots, 0-1 goals, 51X, 0-0 HDSC
- Howard-Frederic-Janmark 4:28, 1-3 shots, 0-1 goals, 3X, 0-2 HDSC
Connor McDavid played 26 minutes, Leon Draisaitl 24 on the second of a back-to-back and the Oilers looked tired in the third period. The top two lines drive so much offense all the third and fourth lines need to do is hover around 50 percent. So far, 30 percent is the number for the depth group and that’s going to end this team’s season.
Coach Kris Knoblauch appears to be chasing a Matt Hendricks-Boyd Gordon-Rob Klinkhammer ideal and the talent on the roster is ill-suited to the idea. I’m not sure the Oilers are going to run Savoie in the postseason and am fairly certain Ike Howard will be a practice player April-May. If Knoblauch wins Stanley, no one will care. If he doesn’t, the Oilers will have spent the season trying to turn Savoie into Tyler Pitlick and that seems unwise. I think Frederic gets now to the deadline to find his way, and after that Bowman gets a rugged center for the third line.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:31, 2-11 shots, 0-1 goals, 19X, 0-3 HDSC
- Nurse-Emberson 13:30, 9-2 shots, 1-1 goals, 61X, 0-1 HDSC
- Stastney-Walman 10:01, 5-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 17X, 1-3 HDSC
- Tristan Jarry 23 of 27, .862
The top pair matched the top two lines, the group was on E and Knoblauch rode them anyway. This team has the look of an early playoff exit many nights, and I think part of it has to do with workload. Nurse-Emberson looked good, and it was good to see Jake Walman back in the lineup. Tristan Jarry’s overall numbers look poor, but I liked his third period very much.
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will be our feature guest and we’ll look at the third and fourth lines specifically. We’ll chat NFL players, the Condors and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
New for the Athletic: Why Oilers need to add another forward like Vasily Podkolzin or Kasperi Kapanen
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6966071/2026/01/14/oilers-forwards-trades-vasily-podkolzin-kasperi-kapanen/
Spoiler, because there is an excess of the letter ‘K’ in the equipment room.
I nominate Finnish goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo and convert him to forward Moneyball style. What, like it’s hard? More Finns plz.
I second this. It would be simpler to just trade for Kaapo Kakko but I think your plan shows real leadership.
Oilers have had not one, but two 4-K names in recent years:
Mikko Koskinen
Slater Koekkoek
Summarizing!
Lewandowski assisted on the Blades’ lone goal in a 3-1 loss.
Prospecting takes a break until Freya’s Day.
@Lowetide:
What do Dream Baby, Jolene & I Will Always Love You have in common?
All written by women? All brilliant songs? Two of them involve unusual chord progressions?
True. But also… All recorded at RCA Studio B – home of a thousand hits! Along with so many others, including the majority of Elvis’s catalogue.
Dream Baby was engineered by Bill Porter, one of the innovators of the Nashville Sound who honestly deserves more recognition – particularly outside of Nashville. He did a lot of work on all aspects of Studio B – including the acoustics.
https://www.countrymusichalloffame.org/experiences/studio-b
Pie in the sky forward roster:
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podz – Drai – Kappy
McMann – Pageau – Sherwood*
Janmark – Stenlund – Savoie
* probably the only player available
Actual:
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podz – Drai – Kappy
Marchment – Coyle – Giroux
Janmark – Sam Carrick – Sherwood
Benson – McLeod – Quinn
Best 3rd line in the league?
Mangipaine Henrique Fredrick.
Very close. But the edge goes to the experienced vets. Over the speed skill energy upside of the young bucks.
How about….
Parker Kelly 8G 16P +8 / Jack Drury 7G 15P + 12 / Victor Olofsson 8G 21P +3
Total cap hit – $4.125 million.
Extreme value.
Your Buffalo line is about $10 million.
This may not be a popular take, but I would see what the market for Roslovic is at the deadline. His skating and offense is a plus, but his defensive play leaves something to be desired. Kind of sounds like a rookie? Well then give the reps to Howard and let him grow.
Cheap contract yes, but if he’s a part of a deal that brings in a good 3C, I would take it.
If they want to add what is needed on this roster they’ll probably have to move 4 current NHL players. Any of Mangiapane, Frederic, Regula, Pickard (and/or Roslovic, Janmark, Howard, Stastney, Lazar and Savoie)
Pickard, Mangiapane and Roslovic would be enough.
There will be wiggle room by the trade deadline.
This is an interesting line of thinking. Roslovic is a pretty ideal deadline rental. Even moreso if 3rd party half his contract or less.
If columbus was willing to get creative in a deal for coyle this might be part of the way.
Charlie coyle @50% 2.625 mill cap hit
For?
Roslovic 1.5 million
Janmark 1.45 million
And what to make it work?
Janmark and roslovic cqn subsequently be flipped with retention if beneficial enough in prospects.
Turns coyle into a lot more assets just because oilers mismanaged cap space again.
KK is under fire on this blog for his roster deployment. I’d like to share some numbers for all to consider regarding rookies/young/new to NHL players.
Savoie 47GP (this season), 7-7-14, 14:02 TOI, 5 NHL GP before this season.
Emberson 42GP, 1-7-8, 15:52 TOI, 106 NHL GP before this season.
Tomasek 22GP, 3-2-5, 10:46 TOI, 0 NHL GP before this season.
Philp 15GP, 2-1-3, 10:02 TOI, 15 NHL GP before this season.
Howard 22GP, 2-1-3, 9:46 TOI, 0 NHL GP before this season.
Regula 28GP, 0-3-3, 14:54 TOI, 22GP before this season.
Hutson 4GP, 1-0-1, 8:00 TOI, 2 NHL GP before this season.
Clattenburg 5GP, 1-0-1, 7:12 TOI, 0 NHL GP before this season.
Stastney – 16GP (Oilers) + 30GP (Predators), 0-0-0, 17:05 TOI, 51 NHL GP before this season.
8 players with under 100GP and 1 with 106GP before this season. 3 players got their first NHL game this season. 2 who had played less than 5 games. 1 with 15, another with 22 and one with 51 GP. KK and his staff are working plenty of players into the NHL in real time. Bowman is actively trying to get younger. I’m not surprised he leans on his horses. And if you look at the TOI across the league so does every other coach. The Oilers have more forwards averaging 10mins and above TOI then the Colorado Avalanche.
Thank you for this insight. Thanks for the data you have added. As they say – who you play with matters and so does who you play against.
I posted during the early season hand-wringing period that 1/3 of the players were new. And you have aptly shown just how new and shiny many of them are. I also noted the shit schedule and the lack of practice time as factors. Both of the latter heighten(ed) the difficulties of playing top tier hockey while building a new team around the old core.
And here we are. On top of the division and grinding away.
The coaches make decisions that I would not. So does the GM. But I don’t have all the intel they do and I don’t have to stand behind mine.
Once again, thanks.
It’s a long view really. They are stocking the cupboards the only way they can. These aren’t their draft picks, save Clattenburg. 9 players who are getting at bats, however there are no runners in scoring position. When it matters there will hopefully be one or more who can step to the plate.
I guess a number of outside observers are saying they would meet that challenge differently. I suppose such observations can never be entirely fair.
Me for instance: I know nothing.
Opinions happen anyway lol
Not often I agree w Staples, but can’t find a word out of place in the Cult’s critique or Knoblauch roster and deployment decisions in Nashville.
Adds to my sense that the whole world is shaking its head at recent KK calls. More than a few head scratchers.
Thinking about Mangiapane, I’m wondering if mutual contract termination might become a bit more common as we go forward. David Kampf, Alex Texier, Brandon Saad, Kuznetsov, Sheary. All mid or later career guys who feel they have more to give and who have earned quite a bit in career earnings.
We look at a mutual termination as binary. Mangiapane giving up 3.6 million. But it really isn’t that. They have an offer in hand for say 1.5 million x 2.
To complete any trade you need for a devalued asset with a No Trade you are relying on one or two parties in the transaction to take on all of the pain. In this case the Oilers as it currently sits might need to give up an asset just to lose Mangiapane. The acquiring team gets the player and a free asset but a bad contract. And the player actually WINS as they keep all their money and get to go somewhere better. Why shouldn’t they feel some pain?
But the catch is that the selling team may decide that’s too much pain to bear and the player can just sit in the press box and lose their career. There’s real pain for a 30 year old with a family.
With a mutual contract termination all three parties spread the pain more evenly. Or at least from the sellers PoV the player sacrifices a little.
The seller gets out of it
The buyer gets the player for free but no asset and they get a better contract than if they made a trade.
The player (who would secure an offer first) loses their larger contract but gets a reduced contract and avoids the worst of the worst; AHL or press box career ending stuff.
Id say give the trade market another week but then it’s time to apply maximum pressure on the player so mutual contract termination moves up his list.
Magpie still has $5M of term value left on his contract, so it’s not as compelling for him to sign for much less to end this season.
The flipside for the player in a mutual termination is they actually have to deliver strong play when they sign with another club. Not sure 88 has enough game to cover his losses.
I don’t think there’s another team who disregard current performance in players/coaches/managers quite like the Oiler do, over and over again. So not likely.
Why would he throw away a sweet two year deal to risk playing in the AHL in a month. Actually I’d say no chance at all.
Coach K’s You,Strawberry, hit a homerun! strategy is finally starting to run out of gas but he still seems totally uninterested in anyone not on those two top lines. Now when they’re running a 30% GF tally that would be understandable but it’s obviously unsustainable. Play the damn kids! What’s the worst that could happen? They fall to 29%?!
The kids Sideburns are far too long. Knobs told them to shave them!
Fire the Coach and/or the Coach doesn’t know how to build a team. Tough crowd, tough crowd.
1) Back to Back SCFs.
2) Tied first in the Pacific today.
3) First game last night with the entire lineup sans the Ghost of Rico suited up in months.
4) Breaking in 4.5ish “rookies” (Regula, Savoie, Howard, Hutson, Emberson).
5) McDavid, Drai, Bouchard, Hyman, Nuge all bubbling at around or over a PPG.
6) A goalie in the AHL shredding the opposition.
7) Found money with Roslovic, Stastney and maybe just maybe Ingram.
8) Ekholm showing excellent recovery from last year’s injury.
9) A very favorable travel schedule down the stretch after DECADES of getting absolutely shafted by scheduling.
10) A near record PP and a healthy 80.2% PK (should improve once Walman gets up to speed).
11) McD on After Hours a couple weeks back expressing a lot of positivity about the team rounding into form
Thats an awful lot of positive arrows.
Or perhaps the rosiest of rose colored glasses makes it seem that way?
Emberson isn’t no rookie whatsoever
Howard isn’t being broken in any way, Hutson!? Even less.
Whats going on in the AHL has nothing to do with the Oilers coach.
Whatever players Stan brings in, has nothing to do with the coach.
Players recovering from injury, has nothing to do with the coach.
Every Oilers coach has had a top tier PP with the Oilers 5 man unit.
Roslovic is being miscasted as a center.
Stastney, arrived a few weeks ago. Nothing to do with the coach.
He fumbled the preseason, pissed away the first two months.
He got out coached in each final against Florida.
Far too many players on the roster have no role, other then to cheerlead the exhausted horses from the bench.
Same as it ever was.
I’m seriously perplexed what happen to the coach that was aiming to win every 7 game segment to whatever he’s goals are now.
Knoblauch just coached to lose two consecutive overtimes with the same stale game plan.
Mangiapane on the 3rd line taking penalties, being useless while Howard gets scratched, benched, thrown aside after he comes up from the AHL absolutely dominating the league.
Yuck.
But other than that everything is good.
You seem to be throwing a lot of spaghetti at the wall here so I’ll try to respond to a couple of buckets.
Youngins and their teammates.
How many rookies or even 2nd year players play with MacKinnon, Kucherov, Barkov, Aho, Eichel, Matthews or Schieffele (just grabbing top offensive vets here).
Dallas is an almost interesting case until you see how many points Johnston has on the PP.
Nuge and Hyman are scoring near a PPG in the playoffs the last four seasons with McDavid. Howard and Savoie as wingers will be called upon to be defensively conscious in their role on the 3rd line against players like Marchand should it by a finals three-peat, Gourde should it be Tampa, or Jarvis and Martinook if its the Canes.
Fun stats Lundell is the only <25 year old to crack Florida’s playoff lineup consistently the last three years. He played on the 3rd line last year but earned praise and trust from Maurice in 2024 for his excellent two way play. He didnt really start playing top six roles until his 2nd contract kicked in. Oh and he was a 14th overall pick by the Cats in 2021.
Injuries and Coach decisions
It’s good to know that injuries shouldn’t have any impact on coaching lineup decisions. Maybe injuries could partially explain that pissed away preseason and two months? Maybe it could explain why Roslovic is being test driven as a C, maybe Roslovic asked to that test to try and increase is value to the team? Let’s give it one of those 7 game segments to see how it goes?
Mangiapane publicly asked out. He Hasn’t been able to find himself a team yet so should we not play him at all to make that search easier at to make our cap commitment better? Or does one game every five or six sound about right?
Emberson has 148 games to his belt and is in his 2nd full NHL season. He faded pretty hard down the stretch last year but it was a murderous travel schedule and the injury to Ekholm (which doesn’t impact lineup decisions) didn’t help. I wouldn’t call him a Grizzled Vet at 25 but you’re right he’s not a raw rookie (that’s why I gave him the .5)
I think most Oilers fans recognize that the greatness of McDraiBouch covers many sins. The older McDraiBouch gets, the more help they need.
As with many previous Oilers coaches, Knobber is obsessed with maximizing McDraiBouch minutes rather than improving at the margins and down the line up.
The Oilers best seasons in the McDraiBouch era have come when the coach plays, trusts, and effectively deploys the bottom half of the roster.
At 38 years old there has only been four seasons when Sidney Crosby didn’t play more that 20 minutes a night.
One year was his 2nd concussion shortened 2011-12 season where he played only 22 games and averaged 18:26.
When it happened in 14/15, 16/17, 21/22 and currently this year he’s been under that 20min threshold by 2 seconds, 8 seconds, 2 seconds and 14 second respectively.
And if you dig into the special teams stats he only has 11 career shorthanded points and the Pens were a very middling PP drawing team in that time period save for 14/15. If they drew penalties like the Oilers he’d probably get 30-45 more per game.
The Pens had better team wide balance for a lot of his years as well.
There are a lot of positives, and the story hasn’t played out. Part of how a person thinks about the team is what are the expectations?
If it’s the Cup, there are concerns. Any team with the class of players they have is going to do very well. But can they get over the hump? Can they get it together and beat teams they should? The Preds game was different given the sched, but as a team they to me should be stronger in more games
They have some new players, but every team has it’s challenges, and some are starting to roll. The Oilers need to be one of those
Oilers 47 GP, 54 pts, 5-3-2
Hot on their heels:
Kraken 44 GP, 50 pts, 7-1-2
Mammoth 47 GP, 50 pts, 6-3-1
Sharks 45 GP, 49 pts, 6-4-0
Hawks 46 GP, 45 pts, 6-3-1
Kings and Preds 48 pts 1 out of a Wildcard
Not a lot of room for error, an Oiler cold streak could drop them out again. For me it’s less about losing a game, than how structured they played it, and how many players were engaged. Not there yet
Also important to look up.
Vegas has THREE games in hand is really starting to roll now that Stone and Eichel are fully back in the lineup and Hertl has been on fire.
Last 10 5-3-2 but now with 4 straight wins.
Hertl – last 10 – 4G 12P
Stone – last 10 – 8G 14P
Eichel – last 6 – 4G 7P
Not McDavid numbers but there are 3 of them all producing at a high level and Marner is also producing at a PPG pace.
I don’t think important means what you think it means. Another value add!
I would love an update on Colborne and Brogan Rafferty’s new career endeavours.
Yes I should have included the golden helmets
Those four straight wins come against who?
The defensive stalwart teams in San Jose, Columbus, St Louis and Winnipeg.
Their blue line is really thin and that forward corps is as old as some corpses.
Are you suggesting Nashville (twice), Chicago, Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Los Angeles are superior opponents?
That’s curious since not one of them is in a playoff spot.
Wow, really?! 5-3-2 in their last 10 games? What an incredibly dominant run, I’m sure no other 2nd placed team in the pacific could possibly keep up with that pace.
Vegas’ first line centre returned from injury to full time action January 2.
Since that time they have a record of 4-1-1or 9 points out of a possible 12.
That represents at .750 percentage.
Try and pay closer attention.
Woah 6 game sample size! 4-1-1, someone check the record books, surely this has never been done before!
3-1-2 or 8 of a possible 12 points in their last 6. .666 point percentage. With the return of their starting goalie and a top 4D in their last game. Pay closer attention.
Not overly rosy view – there is a tendency here to see the dark cloud behind the silver lining. I would argue the Oilers have some obvious strengths not being maximized by the coaches, but so do all teams right now (even the Avs).
I don’t think it is helpful to call for a firing when that will never happen. I am interested in line combo maximizing, different zone looks or what the numbers say about what we see on the ice.
I’m far from his biggest critic but there is more than today and yesterday in regards to coaching duties. Tomorrow is as important and in the oilers case since they’ve won nothing, it is more important.
Those failings I lay at the feet of management primarily but the coach seems to be hanging himself out to dry long term with his short term coaching strategies.
I hear you for sure.
But were there any big coaching changes this past offseason that might take a bit longer than 47 games (at least 20 of which were missing a combo or very key institutional memory cogs in Nuge Hyman and Walman) to work their way through the roster and all its new bodies?
Knob ran through 2 forward pairs in OT before going back to McDavid/Drai and there were stoppages. 100% you go back to them – it’s 100% those two for extending their second shift and not changing when they had control after being out for a minute.
On the upside, Happy Birthday Connor! Congratulations on extending your point streak! I hope you enjoyed your birthday present (26+ minutes)!
Bowman needs to trade Howard while he still has value it’s either that or fire the Coach. Why the hell did Bowman trade O’Reilly if the plan was to play Howard in a position to fail. Howard is the perfect example how a coach can derail your career it’s actually painful to watch.
For the 27th time, the acquisition of Howard was about a short, medium and, likely, long term relationship with the team.
I would like to see Howard with more reps up the lineup but there is zero reason to move on from a very promising 21 year old 3 months in.
For the 27th time, not every more needs to pop on the NHL roster immediately.
You wanted to move on from Ingram a month ago because they hadn’t used him yet.
I would suggest you stop saying “why the hell” given you know why – you don’t agree with it, fine, but you are continuing to ask a question knowing the answer because you don’t like the answer.
Last time you kept going on and on how Howard needed more seasoning in the AHL. Well the only difference in Howard’s game since coming back is absolutely nothing. Howard is not an energy forward never will be if they continue to use him in this manner they will wreck him. For the 28th time why make the trade if you’re going to use Howard in the wrong role?
I 100% disagree that there is nothing different in Howard’s game.
I agree with you regarding disappointment regarding his current usage.
I would suggest that when he’s scoring 25-30 goal in the near future (and for years on end), you will finally accept the answer to your question.
After watching the replay on that OT goal I think that Jarry needs to be cut some slack. He prevented a break away by getting to the puck but he wasn’t able to make a great play. The biggest factor was that the top line was completely gassed. Bouchards effort getting back was ridiculously bad. There is no point for that line to stay out there that long if that is the way they are going to play.
I don’t pin that OT goal on Jarry at all.
Yet another goalie hung out to dry by F group focused on anything but responsible team play.
Knobber is a very old school coach. He is reverting to TMac and Tip tendencies.
It’s hard to say if it’s a coaching issue or roster construction. Knobber clearly does not trust the bottom half of the roster.
As this core group tends to do during the regular season, they defensive zone and neutral zone play has become sloppy and lots of high danger for the goaltender.
The Oilers also have banked 8 out of 10 points in the last 5 games which just included back to back on the road (and 3 in 4 nights).
Go Oilers!
Yes. I’m with you. But for the sake of their goalies’ mental health and career numbers, if nothing else, couldn’t they be less sloppy?
That’s a rhetorical question. Of course they can, and they do, and they win more playoff rounds than anyone except the Stanley Cup winners in the past two (three?) years by consistently not playing sloppy. But during the regular season, goalies are expendable.
Question .
How does a player go about asking to nullify a contract? Maybe tell Mangiapanne this is a route for him to take. Explain he will have to go on Waivers 1st ( As they did with Tomasek) and if he clears he can go wherever.
Just not sure how it exactly works. But after his terrible seemingly I don’t give a shite last 2 games, he should never dress for another Oilers game
I would think mangi would rather sit in the stands or ahl and continue to collect his 3+ millions than to walk away. If he decides to walk he would be able to sign with another team but would certainly be for much less.
I agree he should never play for the oil again and suspect a trade will happen soonish.
Texier did just that. Signed for much less with a team he obviously enjoys playing with, and is “found gold” for the Habs. It’s impressive, seeing a player take that risk, have that much confidence in himself —and make it work.
Texier was on the last year of his contract. He had a destination lined up. So he was n ot giving up much money, and setting himself up for another contract early.
Saad had more years on his contract, but he also had a destination lined up, and significant career earnings, and more interest in playing on a contender.
Clearly Doug Armstrong and the agent worked together to facilitate a soft landing and a relative win-win scenario.
Mangiapne has about $4.1MM left on his contract – $500K left of salary this year (just under), a $2.6MM signing bonus for next and then $1MM base salary next year.
I dont’ see him ripping that up knowing the most he’ll likely get is $1.5MM a year on any new deal (if that maybe).
Knoblauch has to rely on more players, or the probability that this team reaches the promised land is low. Hoping for a straight flush is a bad strategy.
That means the Oilers have to learn to play with less McDavid and Draisaitl and Bouchard and more of the rest of the team.
It is time for Howard, Samanski, and Hutson.
Playing them will not improve the odds for this year (but will likely not hurt them either), but it will improve the odds for next year.
But it might improve the odds this year. You need to know what you have before you trade them.
Halfway through the season they still not certain what they have on their roster, let alone in rookies, because of your initial point, coach needs to play the whole team.
Yes. Yes. Yes. I’m sure Samanski wasn’t signed to beef up the ahl team long term. Let’s if we have a third line center before blowing assets to acquire one.
Also javarntie is likely at least a forth line energy winger. Maybe more. These aren’t 18/19/20/21 year old rookies.
Im ok with Howard going down as he’s unlikely to participate in this years playoffs anyway. I’d rather see him succeed somewhere than suffer playing in an unsuitable role.
Boone Jenner fought Rasmus Anderson last night. GO GET HIM
Why not get both? 😀
Yes.
Nurse goes to boards with forechecker and with him also goes Janmark. Both lose the battle behind the net and Nashville forward gets the puck out to the slot where a man is waiting.
Emberson is not around but here is Howard, exactly where he should be to prevent that high danger shot. He can see Frederik coming in his peripheral and taps it up. Frederik is too slow to react, cant get to the puck.
Puck is sent cross ice to right side D. Frederik again too slow to get his stick on the shot.
Both Nurse and Janmark now standing in front of the net doing nothun. Emerson off to the right covering right side of net. The Nashville player who won the board battle now goes netfront and stands right in front of Jarry for the screen. Nobody touches him, nobody moves him, nobody seems to even noticed him.
Screened shot goes in.
Howard is benched.
Howard gave the puck away, but amongst multiple errors, by multiple players, just what exactly are you trying to teach this kid?
As usual they’re trying to turn a high offensive talent into a third/forth line checker because:
1) We have Leon and Connor to do the scoring
2) Young players have to ‘earn it’
This is mostly as I see it as well. I think the lesson should have been Howard was in the right spot doing the mostly right thing. Maybe the message was here’s your reward you no longer have to play on the forth line. Sit here.
You would rather bury the kid in the minors than play him in the wrong role on the big club. How very thoughtful of you.
I’d rather play him in a role that could lead to success. Preferably with the oilers. But that opportunity doesn’t seem to exist.
Exactly if O’Reilly turns into a decade long 3-C while watching Howard’s confidence get peeled back layer by layer is just stupid asset management. Howard was ready to be tapped day one if they have no fit for him then why trade O’Reilly for him?
Ya seems to be a bit of a disconnect somewhere. I do wonder if Howard being a bit cocky rubs Conner and Leon the wrong way? Both super serious. Hyman is super humble while nuge seems serious too.
Maybe this isn’t fully a coach decision although it should be.
O’Reily could turn in to a decade long 3C or he just as easily could turn in to a tweeter or something in between.
No matter what you see from Howard in any game coming up, he is ever bit as likely to turn in to a 30G complimentary wingers as SOR is a decade long 3C – perhaps even more as Howard has shown to be an elite goal scorer again men in a league 14 tiers higher than junior hockey.
Connor Ungar Save career percentages:
3 years WHL spot duty 15 games. 2018 until Covid shortened 20-21 season: 0.905
21-22 Red Deer 34 games 0.911
22-23 Moose Jaw 38 games 0.925
23-24 Brock University 26 games 0.932
24-25 ECHL Fort Wayne 35 games 0.903
25-26 ECHL over 3 teams 0.944
25-26 AHL 5 games 0.953
What I was trying to point out yesterday was that Ungar has had a very unusual but encouraging progression. Every level he goes up in competition, he tends to produce even better numbers than the previous level once he settles in. This season, he’s had the maximum amount of chaos being loaned to 3 different ECHL teams and still put up a 0.944 SV% before moving up to the AHL and doing even better at 0.953. This indicates to me a goalie who shuts out all external noise and stops the puck no matter where he is or who’s playing in front of him.
I made the comparison that his development was similar to Cam Talbot but another comparable that sprang to mind was Tim Thomas. Smaller goalies who have to prove to their organizations that they were the real deal despite being overlooked for being shorter.
Agreed, except Talbot is 6’3. I can’t remember if it was Gregor, I came across someone talking about the NHL being conservative with goalies that are popping who are younger, Ungar just turned 24
Saros was pretty young when they let him back up. Play the best goalie, age depends on the player
The comparison to Talbot wasn’t really about size but about how Talbot went from university hockey to 3 years in the AHL and then into the NHL at 25 pretty much ready out of the box. Each year his save percentage improved showing his rapid growth and indicating that he might have been capable before they actually gave him an audition at the next level.
Traditional hockey management sometimes makes goalies overmatriculate and keep them down in the minors or juniors longer than might be warranted.
Last night, right before overtime I posted “what is this coach doing that contributes to winning?” And then blows overtime again.
To my eyes, the only difference between bad Oilers up to December, and good Oilers, is the effort and contribution of basically two players.
Its not good enough. Not for the ultimate prize.
I don’t really care about the score right now, I know they will get into playoffs. I care about how they are playing, developing, and promise looking forward.
Top talent is so, so good, we are blessed. But each time when they try to go the distance carrying the entire load, its just too much. MrP mentioned Connor, Leon, Bouchard can and do play rugged even filthy. Yes they can, but should they have to? For crying out loud, get them some help to knock the flies off, pick on the other teams talent, shoulder some of the load.
The Coach needs to take responsibility for high risk play throughout the line up. The god awful defending, the perimeter globetrotters play, the lack of developing valuable depth roles or developing emerging talent.
Bouchard rarely plays rugged. If he did way more in front of the net it would probably save some rebound goals.
Agree. But he has been filthy in playoffs, and he has thrown some bog hits this season. But is not his game, not his nature. So play him to his strengths, then build some physical component into rest of your dmen. But this lack of netfront engagement is a thing with all our D and has been for years so i assume its part of the coaching game plan. Every new dman we get seems to adopt this play.
Vincent Trocheck may be the optimal 3C. Right-handed, puts up offense, likely available for the right price.
What if the right price is a 1st + either Howard or Savoie? Would you make that trade?
Over half the teams in the league need a middle six centre. Price for Trocheck will be way higher.
Cap hit is $5.625 M
How would you make that work?
No To Trocheck. Hopefully Columbus keeps dropping in the standings. Go get Jenner or Coyle ( bothvUFA’s) if they do. Both cheaper and both better imo.
Listened to an extensive interview with Don Waddell this morning.
After firing his coach and bringing in Rick Bowness he says the Jackets are going to push hard for a wildcard spot and are more likely to add than trade anyone.
As for Jenner and Coyle…
“Add in a second-period fight and an assist on Coyle’s empty-net goal, and Jenner completed the Gordie Howe hat trick.
“That’s the Boone Jenner I remember coaching against for a long time,” Bowness said with a smile postgame. “I love watching him play. I’m glad I’m coaching him because he’s a hard guy to play against.”
Jenner was far from the only veteran to help lead the way on the night. Coyle finished with two goals and an assist – plus two massive screens in front of Wolf that played major parts in goals – while Zach Werenski had a goal and two assists to run his home point streak to 15 games.”
https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/news/winning-thoughts-blue-jackets-win-rick-bowness-debut
Make a note everybody; HH just mentioned Columbus pushing for the playoffs.
Feel free to put all your savings on Columbus NOT making the playoffs. Safest bet around.
Ooh my God you said the B word.
Clearly the Jackets have their sights set on a playoff spot today. However, there’s a lot of track between here and the deadline and they have a mountain to climb. Projecting them as a buyer seems premature at best.
I’m not doing the projecting.
Waddell sounds serious about making a push and has about $18 million in cap space to play with.
One can imagine a continuation of the new coach bump so a 6 point deficit may not be impossible to close.
It’s a very rare day when the GM is going to come out and say anything else. This is quite often deliberate because what they’re also trying to do is drive up the cost of acquisition (we still have plans for this guy, why would I sell him).
Now could it be true? Possible. But parsing GM speak is part science and part art. Especially when you’re still trying to sell tickets for this season.
I bet they’re willing to take Howard who will instantly start lighting it up. Oilers need to trade Howard before they bring his value down to a paper clip.
I’m not so sure.
The major reason, according to reports I’ve heard, for switching coaches is that the Jackets young players are not progressing well.
Adam Fantilli 21, Cole Sillinger 22 and Kent Johnson 23, seem to have stalled.
I really don’t know if Rick Bowness works well with young players.
He’s hardly going to come in and say: We’re going to lose out for the rest of the season.
Still fair play to Columbus. If they jump the rest of the non playoff East teams (Ottawa, NJ, Florida, Pitt, Philly, Buffalo) and then bump out one of the wild card teams (Toronto, Boston), that would be awesome work. I’d be happy for them, but that’s a tough ask. Plus imagine how happy Tampa/Montreal/Carolina/Islanders would be seeing all those major opponents dumped out and the BJs in.
You have to have dreams though.
I would not.
We have an exceptional 3rd line center named Nuge.
And we have a left winger named Roslovich that has already proven he can score, and provide speed, on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd lines
And several shooters that should be auditioning for 1st line left wing or third line development. Savoie, Howard, Hutson
With a qualifier. If we are not using Howard or Savoie anyway, then yes to the trade.
He might be but he’s 32 with lots of term
CBJ aint going 24-12 the rest of the way. Waddell can play that card all he wants.
They need to figure out that this is a team. Mcdavid and Drai stay out an entire pp or most of an OT needs to end.
The big guns cannot play this much every night. It’s costing us games and the rest of the roster can’t get going.
McDavid and Drai started the OT, fine and the coach rolled through two other forward pairings prior to putting them back on and there was a stoppage in there I believe. 100% they get the 4th forward shift. It was on McDavid and Drai for staying out too long – they had position after being out there for a long time and refused to change – that is on the players.
The PP went 2 for 4 and were the reason they were in the game.
Nashville seemed to want this one a bit more .
The 3on3 OT needs to be worked on. They can’t play McD, Drai or Bouchard ( especially the 2 forwards) as much as they do then literally 3-4 minutes in OT. They were gassed and especially Bouchard as he could barely skate and had no burst when that puck was launched over his head. It was no fault of the goalies that he had to come out to move the puck . And actually got a later start, thinking Bouchard was actually going to turn and skate. They now have lost 4 straight OT games going back to mid NOV.
Teams now are trying to poop the big boys out rather than attack, then attack when they are off or exhausted. Nashville last night didn’t chase like in 3 on 3/pond hockey and instead played a pk type of triangle in front and wouldn’t let the Oil get close to making a play and kept them on the perimeter. Smart coaching.
I do not get not playing Lazar last night. That 4 th line played so good the night before ? Mangiapanne was bad the night before and even worse last night. Don’t get it.
Team had 20 giveaways last night. Can’t happen.
As for Magpie. He shouldn’t play again as an Oiler. If no one wants to trade for him , put him on waivers. Send him down and if no one takes him, maybe he can play some games up and thru the Olympic break . It won’t hurt and maybe he gets his game back. He is adding absolutely nothing to this team and is taking a roster spot from someone who at least try hard when they play
Hyman is a beast!
That is on McDavid and Drai.
They started the OT, fine and the coach rolled through two other forward pairings prior to putting them back on and there was a stoppage in there I believe. 100% they get the 4th forward shift. It was on McDavid and Drai for staying out too long – they had position after being out there for a long time and refused to change – that is on the players.
Fire the coach.
I’ve never been convinced Knoblauch knows how to work the roster and it’s becoming more apparent with every week this season.
97, 29 & 2 can’t play 30 minutes a game halfway through the season.
26:25 for McDavid and 23:58 for Drai.
I understand the overall point and premise, and it 100% has validity but the narrative about them playing 30 minutes a game is just not reality and a massively exaggerated narrative.
One nice thing about talking about the bottom 6 is that we are talking about the bottom 6.
The oil don’t need to look for a 1RD/ an elite center/ another elite center/top 6 winger, any D men. The hardest players to acquire.
Also most of the depth players are here.
Deployment of the roster is questionable but really don’t need to add more than a depth player or two.
Simple.
Sure, but how many times have we acquired that 3c in the last few years? Lots of assets burned. They sure make it look hard
Ya no doubt then adding to the pain by extending Henrique who was a good addition at the time. I should have put “should be simple”
They traded away Ryan McLeod. I think they’re making it look harder than it is.
They had a pretty small to do list after 2023-2024. It’s pretty easy to argue that once again chaging upper management following the season was a crazy thing to do and cost them a lot.
1. Bring back forward group near intact as far as RFA’s are concerened -> mcleod/foegle/holloway/broberg
2. 1B goalie or potential 1AB younger potential longer answer over pickard
3. Maybe scour later in free sgency for vet depth type RHC ir RHD
3. Have some money at deadline to add missing pieces
They should have run not walked to come to 2-3 year type contracts on broberg and holloway.
Mcleod woukd surely have been an easy 3-5 year @3.5 million
Foegle without much struggle be easy 3×3.5 million..
That was an actual 3rd line we had that was positive goal differential.
Henrique is a deadline rental at his age at that kind of money. Find the next henrique on expiring deal.
Henrique arvi and skinner ahead of mcleod foegle holloway broberg is blowing the hole blown in ship moment.
Say what you will about bowman negatively he has possibly saved any sort of serious sustain with his discount bargain shopping type dealings so far.
Podz (4th round pick)
Emberson (ceci + 5th rightful dump)
Regula (waiver claim)
Statseny (3rd rnd pick)
Discount ingram (pop and bag of chips)
Like that’s a lot of value in youth form for little to nothing.
My first thought?
If it is simple, why hasnt it been accomplished?
However, I do agree with you. There is plenty of talent already on the roster. At every position. A few tweaks yes.
Which leads back to the same question: If you are telling me there is talent available why all the concern?
Deployment of the roster is questionable.
After 88 took the late penalty the camera panned to KK writing on his notepad. “Scratch 88” is my guess…. Any others?
“Maybe 20 is a better option?”
If Howard is not going to be placed in a position to succeed it’s time to bring up Jarventie or Samanski.
But certainly scratch mang.
Agreed. No reason at all to run Howard 6 minutes on the fourth line. For guys like Howard, it should be top 6 playing at least 16 minutes or in the AHL IMO. Hutson probably ok on the third line but they gotta play.
I missed the notepad writing, but commented last night that 88’s overall game warranted a scratch next game. It has been pointed out Lazar was more effective on the 4th line, which I agree with, but it also meant 88 was out for some shifts higher up which negatively impacted their performance.
If it means asset loss, then a trade needs to occur. Targeting a team with need or cap space is the priority, and if it means futures are all that comes back, so much the better.
Can’t believe he was even in that game over Lazar
It was a red felt marker!
“Ok, who wants Ham and Pineapple?”
Its unfortunate he didn’t have that on his notepad prior to last night’s game.
Scratching Lazar and breaking up the fourth line should have been a non-starter.
Swaping Howard in for Mang on the third line was such an easy decision – at least it seemed that way from where I (and others) were sitting pre-game.
” Nashville Skyline”. My favourite Dylan album!
Awesome record. The two voices on ‘Girl From the North Country’ are so powerful and emotional.
THAT is my favourite tune on that album! Actually one of my favourite tunes period! Cash + Dylan what a duo.
As a few pointed out yesterday, scratching Lazar was a mistake. Perhaps the number show otherwise, but to me, he’s the 4th line center. To bench him for Mangi, who appears to have no future with the Oilers, and bury Howard at the same time is criminal.
Exactly
Prospectaroo!
The spotlight shines on the lone Euro amongst the NAmateurs.
David Lewandowski is better than a point per game this season, and has already matched his assist total (24) from last year. He lost his team scoring lead while he was at the WJHC during which he finished with 1+3 in 5 GP.
Quite fitting that the Blades battle the Wheat Kings in the Paris of the Prairies. Puck drops @ 6 p.m. Cessford time.
Also, +1 to our host and friend for what may be the only Lacy J. Dalton reference I’ve ever seen here.
I don’t recall our host referencing Dalton on the blog but he has posted a version of the song by the composer (Tom Schuyler)
16th Avenue
https://youtu.be/52Fv9-zkt2I?si=HvniLhDpaz-EYsb1
— B2B on road, 3 in 4, 3 road games in last 6: days, wins or points in last 4 games : as good as you’d hope IMO.
— good opportunity next 20ish days before break : one B2B with only 1 of the games away. Only a flight to Vancouver and Calgary and long home stretch.
— lots of home cooking,training, practice.
— they should put up a lot of points and be top of Pacific going into Olympics is likely
I hope you are right because the schedule does line up that way.
But the coach needs to find some bottom 6 answers. The simplest yet most profound statement in LT’s post today is that the team has look of an early playoff exit because of workload. KK is not managing it because he’s focused on points.
Was at the game last night and you could see they had nothing in the tank in the 3rd period (at least the top 6, plus 2/14/25). Time after time Nashville…which is not a fast team beat guys to pucks or applied max pressure. While 3 in 4 nights will do that, it’s a signal that something must be done.
I do believe SB will do something…but what will the coach do is the bigger question. I’m not convinced the two of them are on the same page.
— it’s been the right thesis IMO to attribute a lot of day to day performance on this compressed schedule.
— It amplifies for sure our attribution to other things that might ail this team.
— bottom 6 plays better when schedule dictates. There have been some good performances over the last few weeks.
— they will figure it out and be one of the 3 or 4 teams with a realistic Cup chance come playoffs , as they have been for last 3 years (baring Olympic injuries).
— they have 3 more cracks (maybe 5 depending on McDrai aging curve amd of course contract) to get one IMO
— have to enjoy this stage regardless of what they should have could have would have for the last decade of McDrai.
I like your optimism – and agree that regardless of what goes on we need to enjoy (and appreciate) McDrai.
Disagree with the statement on the bottom 6 plays better when the schedule allows. I would say they’ve had moments and it’s based on opponent and coaches deployments. I get that the coach is trying to keep everyone engaged, but he’s really not hit on combo’s.
Example, it’s possible 22/28/53 might turn into something. Same with 10/20/13. But he doesn’t stay the course for more than 2 games on anything so the sample sizes are too small to stay for sure. And then everyone (me included) grows impatient when they don’t put up offense – or make a mistake.
Who knows what the mandate is for the coach, but if he can’t engage and build the whole group up, what will be different than the last two finals? Maybe this time the Duo and Bouch can get it done?
Changing the coach every few years isn’t ideal, but on the other hand should Bowman not be looking for the guy that can knit it all together? I’m not seeing that with Knoblauch
Maybe it’s the lack of practice time, and soon we’ll start seeing more connected team play. Which is desperately needed. This team should be starting to dominate weaker teams often. The Av have been all season, Tampa is starting to
The Oilers have a lot of Power Wins, but a lot of Clear Losses as well. Getting the GA down to me doesn’t mean being more conservative, it means playing together as a group on the ice better. Which means less opportunities for the other guys, having the puck more, and a more stable environment for the goalies
LT… regarding Frederic and the 3C, pretty sure you aren’t inferring he’s dealt right? If anything, if the money can work in season, he’s sitting for the playoffs waiting for injuries.
On a note of irrelevance, pretty sure Draisaitl tipped that blueline OT puck that was heading right towards Bouchards hand. Unfortunate result.
I don’t see him being dealt until after two complete seasons in Edmonton.
Agreed… and forgot to mention, I saw the team is hiring for an analytics department, sure hope you apply.
Frederic will the physical 3C that can play with two of the likes of Howard, Savoie, Roslovic and/or Hutson in the playoffs – OriginalPouzar’s hot take (or fantasy).