Islanders at Oilers, G48 2025-26

The Edmonton Oilers are home and dry, with eight of the next nine games at home. In fact, the club is going to enjoy home cooking pretty much through the day the music died. It’s time to drive to the top of Pacific Heights.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

• At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
• On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
• At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
• On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
• At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1)
• On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0)
• At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1)
• At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
• Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
• Actual Record: 3-1-2, eight points in six games
• Season Record: 23-16-8, 54 points in 47 games

Both teams enter tonight with solid recent records. The Islanders are 6-3-1 and Oilers 5-3-2 in the last 10 games. Edmonton is being carried by Connor McDavid currently, and even though he’s the world’s best hockey player, there will be a dry spell down the line. In the most recent 10 games, McDavid without Draisaitl is 7-5 (58 pct, 64 expected) five-on-five, Draisaitl without the captain is 7-8 goals (47 percent, 36 expected). I think we can see the gap between the two by the eye test, and expected goals confirmed. Draisaitl with McDavid is 3-2 goals, 60 percent and 85 percent. In the 10 games, McDavid is 10-7, 59 percent, 68 expected. That’s King Kong level hockey.

When the Glimmer Twins exit the scene (last 10), Edmonton’s third and fourth lines own a 23 percent (3-10) goal share. However, the expected goal share over the last 10 games is 55 percent. Music! Curtis Lazar is 2-2 goals in the last 10 games, with a 66 percent expected share. Trent Frederic is 0-2 goals, but has a 51 percent expected share. Jack Roslovic is 1-3 goals, with a 57 percent expected share. I know some (many?) of you don’t buy the expected goal percentage, but the trend is heading in a good direction. Now Stan Bowman could make a trade today and upset the math, but Kris Knoblauch does appear to have uncovered something. Credit where due. Don’t play Frederic at center, though.

Darnell Nurse has had a wild ride in the last 10 games. He is 3-2 goals with McDavid (64 percent expected) and 2-11 without the captain. That’s incredible for a 10-game run. In those 10 games, he has played just 18 minutes without McDavid against elites, and is 0-3 goals. We can assume the GF column comes from running with the third and fourth lines, but the 11GA has to be corrected and right soon. I’ve mentioned this before, but for me, when Jake Walman is ready, Knoblauch may want to consider Nurse for the third pairing. Keeping him from the elites may be key to another Stanley Cup run. Nurse away from McDavid owns a 49 percent expected share (via Natural Stat Trick), so you can hope for a regression but the third and fourth lines can’t piss a drop offensively.

While we’re at it, Nurse on the PK has been deployed almost 400 minutes over the last three seasons. That’s a large sample. His GA-60 is 10.21, expected 8.40. Evan Bouchard has played far less on the PK (140 minutes) and has a 5.13 GA-60. That’s about half of Nurse’s total. However, Bouchard’s expected GA-60 is 8.6, about where Nurse landed. I’m not an expert on PK’s, or math, but I don’t trust small numbers on the PK. I’d love to hear your opinion on it.

The Lowdown today will tee up the Islanders-Oilers and we’ll talk about NFL, CFL and college football. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be our guest and we’ll run noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 radio and You Tube.

The glory Islanders were one of the best teams I have ever seen. The goalies were a HHOFer and a guy you could build a marginal case for, the defense was led by the tough and frightening Denis Potvin, and the forwards boasted a perfect center in Bryan Trottier and possibly the greatest sniper in history of the game (Mike Bossy). Yeah.

The 1983 SCF was actually closer than you might think for a four-game sweep. Edmonton beat Calgary in the Smythe Division Final (in five games) by outscoring the Flames 35-13, that was domination. Oilers swept the Chicago Blackhawks in the Campbell Conference Final, outscoring them 25-11 in four games. In the four games of the final in 1983, the Oilers were in games 1, 3 and 4 into the third period. 

The moment I devoted my Oilers fandom to beating the Islanders came after the 1983 Stanley Cup Finals. In an article called ‘On the Contrary’ Stan Fischler compared the Islanders victory over Edmonton in 1983 to the Battle of Britain and the Battle of Midway, with the Islanders representing Churchill and America, respectively.

• Fischler: There are those who believe that someday the Oilers will win the Stanley Cup. Do not believe it. As long as Glen Sather runs the Oilers, they can be stopped. Wayne Gretzky is Ted Williams–a winner but not a champion. That’s an important distinction. Williams has no World Series ring and Gretzky–with all of his style and grace–may never have a Stanley Cup ring.

I had just witnessed the Oilers rip through their part of the NHL, and show pretty well against a superior team (the Islanders won 19 straight rounds from 1980 to 1984). If you had seen the series in real time, the storyline would have been great team wins their fourth in a row and team on the rise learned a lot in losing. I still have that copy of The Hockey News these years later. Fischler’s words were piercing and memorable, if incorrect. The following season, Wayne Gretzky and the Oilers would win the first Stanley Cup in franchise history. I had a drink to salute Mr. Fischler, and then I had another one.