Each of us digests a hockey game in real time, and the possible takes from a large fan base are myriad. We might see ‘their goalie was too good’ or ‘our star looked off tonight’ or ‘we have to do something about the damnable penalty kill’ and that’s interesting and maybe accurate. We rarely talk about luck, even less than we used to. I believe last night was about luck, bad luck in the case of the Oilers. It followed some terrific hockey and a brilliant challenge by Kris Knoblauch, but the beautiful woman at the bar with the lovely dress made it sway for another. Crap. Completely unsatisfactory. It was a good game, and there were some fine performances. Does last night’s game mean much? I think it means the Stan Bowman found a goalie.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 3-2-2, eight points in seven games
- Season Record: 23-17-8, 54 points in 48 games
We as a group are wired to find the answer to issues. Luck is an unacceptable answer because it’s vague and can happen again and we don’t like it one damn bit. Connor McDavid damn near scored late in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final in 2024. If he scores, maybe the Oilers win that game. In the third period of the 2006 SCF (Game 7), Fernando Pisani came within an eyelash of beating Cam Ward. It did not happen. Luck? Yeah. Do we credit luck? Not one damn chance. Why? Luck is not a good answer, it means uncertainty the next time.
I’ve followed hockey and baseball for most of my life, and am always astounded at how many coaches and managers have alcohol and or anger issues. I think Luck has a lot to do with it. We can’t give Luck it’s due, because if we do then what the hell value do our opinions have? Why bother watching when that prick Luck is going to decide the games of our lives? Stupid Luck. Screw you, Luck! Take the gas pipe, Luck! And yet it’s there, robbing us blind. Pass me the bottle, Mr. Jones.
Connor Ingram stopped 17 of 18, .944 save percentage. He stopped all 15 five-on-five shots, including five HDSC. I’m a fan of five-on-five save percentage as the best measuring stick for goalies, even though I’m in the extreme minority. This season, Ingram’s five-on-five save percentage is .910 through eight games and almost 400 minutes. No other Oilers goalie is above .893 save percentage in the metric (Tristan Jarry). There’s something happening here. Don’t let Luck make you look past the big story.
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen 12:07, 8-4 shots, 75X, 5-2 HDSC
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 11:16, 9-5 shots, 75X, 4-2 HDSC
- Frederic-Lazar-Janmark 7:43, 2-2 shots, 33X, 2-3 HDSC
- Howard-Roslovic-Savoie 7:40, 6-1 shots, 86X, 2-0 HDSC
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman 4:53, 1-0 shots, 100X, 1 HDSC
I want to highlight the Roslovic line. Two rookies on the wing and a smaller center, their tore through the Islanders and had multiple chances. I know they get knocked off the puck many times, and doubt the trio will stay together, but I’m pleased Knoblauch is finding minutes for all three. At some point Nuge will check down to the No. 3 center job and the coach will want to add a bigger winger, but for now I’m enjoying the devotion to skill.
Zach Hyman had five overall high-danger chances. If he makes the final last year? Damn you, Luck! I don’t think blaming Leon Draisaitl for missing the net or hitting the post or even taking a bad luck penalty is the way here. Even if the loss belongs to one player, Luck is the real culprit here.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 18:25, 10-5 shots, 79X, 6-2 HDSC
- Nurse-Emberson 14:25, 7-6 shots, 61X, 5-4 HDSC
- Walman-Stastney 11:57, 8-2 shots, 67X, 3-3 HDSC
Solid work by the group, these are pristine numbers and the next time you see this set of numbers beside expected goals, it will be after a victory. Ty Emberson was the only defenseman with a HDSC last night. Unusual. I think Walman is ready to move up the depth chart now, wonder if he takes Stastney with him.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll have Steve Lansky, a complete review of the Oilers-Islanders and look forward to the NFL playoff weekend. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
New for The Athletic: Are the Edmonton Oilers giving their young forwards enough opportunity?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6974339/2026/01/16/edmonton-oilers-stats-matt-savoie-ike-howard/
The Savoie/McLeod trade was made to save some cap space in the immediate and to acquire a top 6 player going forward – the premise included Henrique filling in as 3C for a few years and, well, right now, that’s the big issue.
Matt Savoie remains right in line with Ryan McLeod’ for development and maybe ahead depending on how you want to look at it.
Matt Savoie turned 22 a few weeks ago – in Ryan McLeod’s 22 year old season he played 70 NHL games and has 21 points. McLeod being 5 months older at the same age (he was 22 when that season started, Savoie was 21).
The season prior (where McLeod was 21 to start and Savoie 20, turning 21 half way through), McLeod was PPG in 28 AHL games and Savoie at the pace for the entire second half of the season – McLeod was also on a super AHL line with Marody and Benson, last year, Savoie dragged the corpse of AHL/ECHL call-up players to that PPG in the second half.
I liked the trade at the time but now looks like a bad trade. Savoie looks like he will be a good hard working player for a long time but looks to be very shy on offense and will remain a 3rd line for his career.
You can state that but it just disregards the substance of my post comparing development at similar ages.
Your comparison takes mcleod’s continued yearly progression and transfers it to Savoie. Some players don’t progress.
I don’t see a top 6 player there. You can have your own opinion
I am ok if he can become a 50 pt guy and play all around the infield like Nuge. Savoie is getting the chances, bury just half of what he gets, he may be that guy.
we’d be ecstatic if he hit 50 points.
we’re talking about a 30 point player here
Ryan McLeod and Savoie are not very apt comparables since one is 6″3″ 204 and a high end skater while the other is only 5’10” and 179.
Nils Hoglander comes to mind although Savoie has better draft pedigree.
5’9″ 185 Hoglander spent his 22 year old season primarily in the AHL and scored a pro-rated 21 goals and 47 points which is in the same range as Savoie.
Hoglander followed that up with 24 goals and 36 points the next season in the NHL but has struggled since.
and, at the same age (actually a few months older), McLeod was a 21 point player.
and you post completely discounts reasonable development and the potential that Savoie develops “better than” McLeod. His AHL numbers are “better” than McLeods, essentially matching production while 4 months younger (at the same age) and with MUCH worse line mates.
I push back on a black statement “it was a bad trade” – maybe it turns out that way, maybe not.
Savoie goes to the areas that Macleod would not venture to. Savoie
( knock wood ) is built closer to the ground and seems to be more resilient physically.
In fairness, I don’t think anyone of us know what Savoie’s ceiling will be. In his second pro season, he’s established himself as an excellent penalty killer and 3rd liner capable of generating 25-30 points.
That’s what he is today. I don’t believe that he’s reached anything close to his ceiling yet. We’ve seen glimpses of a player capable of being a productive second liner. Does he reach that level? I have no idea, but I think its way to early to count him out.
its too early to say that. Savoie took the first half in the AHL, then the second he ripped it up. It may work out this way in the bigs too. We shall see. It may happen as you say but too early yet.
The trade was to get rid of a guy who didn’t play hard in the playoffs in exchange for a cheap guy who was reasonably likely to produce well in the Top 6.
There are still many miles to go. But I was hoping for a little more from Savoie this year. (And I didn’t expect McLeod to score 53 points last year.)
Mcleod’s 53 point season was insanely heavy on 2nd assists. Likely hot paid for career year type scenario buffalo jumped both feet into.
What he can do though has value and sustainability.
-Win faceoffs
-Speed to spare that gains entry quite effectively
– pk and defensively effective from an outscoring type angle with hill to climb as far as zone starts.
Solid journeyman 3rd line center. And he just bloomed into it his last year here completely perfect fit for the role.
I like what i see with savoie. In a vacumn i think the deal is fair value. But adding net gain to win now balance type team -> i think it was a uneccessary loss.
There was enough that I read during McLeod’s last Oiler playoffs that I wasn’t surprised he was traded. Add to that his fancies were not good. There was also chatter about Kane that Bob has reiterated, in both cases off ice. With Kane maybe it was the old ‘knives out’ once a player has left, but with McLeod it was before
NHL teams are pretty protective of their cores, and their rooms, rightly or not. Distractions of whatever form usually find new postal or zip codes. I think Stu also eventually fell into this category
Bowman works all of the time, pretty sure they know what they think they need, have concurred as pro meetings are on or have happened, and will look to address that. Whether they can in a palatable way we will see
The trade was to make room for Holloway who was then Offer Shat a month later. They decided Mcleod wasn’t the guy and made a decent trade for a young guy with top 6 upside.
What happened next has been beaten so hard it’s a fine powder fit for the best skiing and yet ‘insiders’ like Frank like to relitigate every chance they get. Nerd.
Great info there.
Someone (in the Athletic comments?) keeps calling them the Smurfs. I’m good with that. Third line = Smurf Line. Lots of energy. Colourful. Zest. Pressing. Make me think of the undersized Habs I’m enjoying.
ps. For everyone who says the Panthers only respect size and filth: the tiny Habs own the Panthers, with seven straight wins, many by good margin. There are, apparently, several ways to skin those cats. Playing their game (size, filth) may not be one of them.
How many playoff games in those wins?
Zero. Maybe this year?
Let’s judge Savoie on his second half, especially offensively. I dont think it is fair to not give him the entire first half to adjust/learn. He has been an offensive player the way up, it may not translate to the NHL but I am going to see what happens in the last 40 games. He gets chances and hopefully when the levee breaks his confidence will soar. Solid player, I liked MacLeod as well but I am not calling this a bad trade just yet.
Condors dominant tonight. 5-1 road win and without any points from Hutson/Samanski. Ungar stop 29 of 30 for a .967 (1st star) with a couple 8-bell saves in there. He’s now 6-0 at the AHL level and likely close to .960.
0.954 with a 1.33 GA Avg
Apparently I am awful at math, so I will just wait for the totals to be calculated by the professionals.
His numbers are:
0.955 with a 1.32 GA Avg.
Thanks.
I’ve wondered if they give Ungar the game on Sunday as well and Holt says that’s undetermined at this point. If he plays both, that’s a tell the org wants to see more.
Jarry/Picks are in Vancouver – Jarry to start tomorrow.
Ingram stayed back and will start at home on Sunday.
A small benefit of carrying three.
Ungar with 3-4 saves in about 30 seconds on a PK – one was a solid save with the pad coming across the crease and another on a stuff player,
He’s let in 1 on 21 shots to this point early in the 3rd.
Jarventie strong on the forecheck, picks off a pass, power drives to the net from down low, dangle in front, five hole, 5-1
Summarizing! (Part the First)
Lewandowski drew two assists.
Nicholl scored his 3rd of the season.
Berry and Barnett each had a helper.
Wakely and Park were denied nutritious soup.
Fischer did not dress.
Lafreniere’s match is in progress: he already has an assist.
Injury for Fisher?
Hope its not serious – I’m looking to get him in to pro games in a few months here….
Suspended two games for cross-checking.
Summarizing! (Part the Other)
Lafreniere finished with just the one assist but was nearly unbeatable on the dot, winning 16 of 21 (76.2%).
Martin Frk super late getting in to position out the point on the PP and the puck goes right through his legs giviging Hamblin a clear breakaway – 4-1 Condors.
M. Brown (ECHL) with a giveaway on the PP and then a terrible back check going to the wrong guy on the back-track – Ungar with a massive save on the 2 on 1.
Akey with a great stick to know down a clear and Carfagna keeps it in, puts it towards the net, Poulin gets a stick on it and Hamblin finds it in the scramble to pot the 3-1.
Wranglers with the draw on the PP and Ungar is beat clean over the glove on a wrist shot from the top of the circles. Small screen.
2-1 Condors late in the 1st.
PP2 with 30 second left – neutral zone face-off is won, Akey with a beauty transition pass to Poulin, enters zone, nice dish to Jones on the flank, power move to the net and Jones buries the 2-0.
Marjala with a good gap close on the zone entry, D’Amato knocks down the puck and finds Griffith for a clear cut breakaway – 1-0 Condors 8 minutes in.
Jarventie, Samanski, Jones, among others, back for the Condors tonight.
Chaulk sounded sick so presume they aren’t fully over it as a team but in much better shape than last weekend
Does luck decide Game 7 of the World Series when a hit in the gap gets perfectly trapped under the wal?
I don’t think luck likes Canada. Stupid Tariffs.
Connor Ungar starts tonight……. does he start on Sunday as well – that would be a tell that the org “wants to see more”.
Mgmt may be close to making a trade decision on one of the tenders but just wants to make sure of what they have in Unger
I don’t think Connor Ungar factors in to any sort of goaltending decisions for this season at the NHL level.
I beg to differ. One goalie gets shipped out, and in case of ingury, Tompkins is the back up for the Oilers and Ungar’s duties will grow in Bakersfield.
Depth should always be considered when making a trade and that means looking at the AHL depth chart as well.
I don’t disagree with that but, at the same time, Connor Ungar being able to assume more duties in Bako isn’t a factor in the potential of not having Pikcard – as you mentioned, Tompkins would be the NHL guy, just like now even if Ungar wasn’t on this development heater.
At least that’s how I look at it.
I appreciate a tempered perspective. That being said, goalies are hoodoo. This doesn’t just mean they will break our hearts by not conforming to our expectations of great play. It also means that they embolden our fan spirit by playing far beyond our expectations and coming out of nowhere to be dominant forces. Consider Dryden, Binnington, Carrey, Hammond, and closer to home, Moog. Ungar could be a major solution. I am hoping they give him a shot.
I get it and I don’t disagree.
The sample size remains small but its now 6 games after another sparking performance tonight.
I’m not sure about this opportunity this year though – I mean, right now, half the fanbase is in fear of losing Calvin Pickard.
Right now he’s a long way from the NHL roster but, once they finally waive Pickard, if he’s claimed (who knows if he will be), well, that would put him a body closer.
For now, I want to see if he plays Sunday as that would be a clear tell he has the org’s attention – that would be a call that Chaulk has received from the big club, for sure, as Tompkins has been their clear 1A all season long and this would be three in a row for Ungar.
Interesting times. The Oil appear to have goal tending depth.
I just might head down to the Saddledome for a hockey game tomorrow. 🙂
With Rangers and Canucks being the first couple teams opening up the sale signs, anyone you’re really interested in?
O’Connor from YVR is interesting and Trocheck is the pipe dream
Ahhhh the Nucks blowing things up is just so awesome.
I’m old enough to remember when Sutter had the Turtle-Guadreau line running MacKinnon esque numbers. The perfect team built to win Cups playing the right Way. One McDaviding in the 2nd round later the entire franchise blows up and the owner refuses to commit to rebuild and they will forever stay in the mushy middle.
Fastforward a season and Tocchet allegedly unlocked a secret formula to have his whole team run a heater that would always and forever be a strategy. One McDaviding in the 2nd round later it seems that Petty is a lazy bugger, JT Miller a locker room cancer (so funny that Drury made him C in NYC), kaboom the franchise implodes and Hughes is off to America.
I want to play more Canadian teams in the playoffs not less!
Muhahahahaha
trochek or a heavily retained zibanejad would be zesty.
Lots of players I’d be interested in.
Until I see an avenue for any material cap space, I don’t even really look
On the Got Your Back podcast Strudwick shared some stats that I believe he gets from sport logic.
24-10 HD scoring chances Oilers
12-4 slot chances Oilers
10mins-4mins Ozone possession Oilers
The xg LT shares and these stats match the eye test. The Oilers were the better team but just couldn’t solve the goalie
Was really hoping Stan would of made a move for Sorokin when he was stinking it up, what a mostly goalie that fella is.
This season has been a piss off from day one of training camp, I was a Knoblauch guy,l. Not sure I’ve ever been as deflated by an Oilers coach.
He’s burning out the top end while blind to the rest, I’d like to see a coaching change during the break.
Ugh the last thing this team needs is a coaching change. I don’t like all his usage decisions for sure but no need to go scorched earth and start over again with another coach, not the now!
There is no I in team. You have the core running the show the rest of the players get table scraps. You can’t win a cup with no bottom 6. If I’m the coach every blue moon I give PP2 the start of the PP. I also send out players that are having a good game when the opposition pulls their goalie. The coach needs to coach and ease up on the sucking off of McDavid-Leon-Nuge-Hyman-Bouchard-Nurse and have others given some juice.
Luck, you make your own luck. Does a Draisatl that’s not been overplayed miss that shot? Probably not
He shot it like he needed the perfect laser beam amd just barely missed tje works everytime level accuracy.
He’s scored an incredible number of goals with that exact same aim from there. Cross net perfect squeeze into opposite corner.
Umfortunately in this case he didn’t need that perfect snipe as there was a gaping hole of the biggest size immaginable.
Can’t blame him. Unfortunate it slightly was off this time but they played a good game and would win it 4 out of 6 times if repeated. All you can ask really.
For sure
Luck, good or bad, just happens. You don’t make your own because life in reality doesn’t work that way, unless you believe in collecting four leaf clovers or tearing the legs off bunnies creates it.
Whether you call it luck or just shrug and say, “shit happens”, it is what it is.
Sorokin was all-world
Fans from opposing teams must routinely come away from games against the Oilers and think: “man, we got beat by a superstar performance”.
I think that’s the feeling we have today of Ilya Sorokin and his goalposts.
this. sorokin, vasilevsky, shesterkin etc are the equivalents to mcdavid, drai, mack, kucherov etc but in the goaltending sphere. they are legit superstars.
How about those ridiculous baseball contracts. My Lord lol.
Bichette over 40 for 3 years for the Mets. Crazy .
Was lucky to go to the game last night. That was a great game . Sorokin was lights out. Seems to always come up huge against us. Really liked Ingram’s game as well.
Seeing that Schaefer kid live in person was a real treat. What a gifted skater, super smart kid and does he ever get the puck off Gus stick super fast. Never dusts it even when passing. Thinking that kid is going to win a handful of Norris’s. No clue why this kid is not on the Olympic team. He is even very good defensively. Besides Makar not 1 of those D men on that team skates like that kid does.
That 3rd line were buzzing and are fun to watch, but ya they do get knocked off the puck a lot and when Tougher and bigger D or playoff hockey roll around they probably would be better split up in the top 9. Love to see Howard on a top 6 wing for a couple and maybe put Nuge down on that 3rd line. It will be interesting to see what Bowman does up to the deadline. I think a winger that is tough and tumble with Nuge and Savoie would be a so,I’d 3rd line. Be really nice if Frederic ( who is starting to look very good od late with way better skating and speed) could play that role.
But fun times ahead.
Kinda need to sweep Sat and Sun. I think they pound Vancouver with a 3-4=point game out of McD.
We’ll be at the Canucks game. High above the Canucks end for 1st & 3rd. Hoping for lots of Oilers offensive play —esp the Smurf Line. They’re bringing lots of zest!
Hopefully you see 4 goals in those 2 periods.
It has been a joy for me to watch Howard develop in real time. Game by game he is getting calmer, better at reads and better at getting himself to appropriate places. Last night he entered the fray in the slot then backed out 2 metres and made himself ready to shoot. Pass was on his stick and off in a split second and his shot blasted just wide/high. I think. The shot was a rocket. Hard to see. The game is slowing down for him. Reminds me of when other high end players – Eberle, Nuge etc – came in and got better every game. I suspect he will be lightning in a bottle in another 20-40 games.
I think Howard (and Savoie) have the potential to pop next season. Would LOVE it if they did this year. The key to both – getting them either A) a real 3c or B) sliding one (or both) into different places on the top 2 lines.
I know that McDavid has been all world since Nuge came back – and it’s very hard to make the argument to move him down. But, the 3rd line screams for a 3C and if you flipped Nuge and Savoie (or Howard) it might be worth seeing if you actually have 3 lines the coach would trust.
Non-hockey item: a lot of people in the world of sports are going to be whining about the Dodgers today…as someone who hates the Dodgers i can feel your pain…but they will then claim that “baseball is broken”.
Wrong. Dead wrong.
MLB baseball is the only sport that actually works and isn’t a joke TV show based on “parity”.
Dynasties happen. Great players get to play with a bunch of other great players. There is an actual battle for the top of the mountain. Everyone and their dog is making money. Tickets are available for reasonable amounts almost everywhere. They do online better than anyone else and have for a long time. Most fans are fans of teams…not “the league”. This is how it should be.
I agree. Great for the sport to have a Goliath.
MLB playoffs were incredible.
Baseball is going to lock out their players out next spring. If the NHL had the same rules (no cap) that MLB currently has, the Oilers best player right now would be Jessie Puljaarvii. Literally every star we have would be playing for a bigger market for way more money. And you could forget the last 2 trips to the finals.
Just my 2 cents.
The oilers are one of the wealthiest franchises though
And would be gaining more wealth if they had a better team and multiple championships.
I’m aging myself here (49), but I remember the times when the Rangers, Leafs, Red Wings, and only a few other teams could spend whatever they wanted. They got every big free agent. The cap wasn’t an issue at the deadline, so they loaded up every single year. They could just bury an expensive player in the minors and didn’t care about how much it cost because they had the money. The poorer teams had no chance. Edmonton is valuable now, and owned by a billionaire. But before the cap, they had no hope of winning anything. I’m not sure NHL expansion teams would be worth a billion dollars today if it wasn’t for the cap. And the Rangers, Leafs, Red Wings would be poaching all our stars. We were basically a farm team.
The Dodgers, where this conversation started, paid $60M/yr for one player last night. The Florida Marlins entire payroll last year was $67M. The Dodgers currently have 8 contracts on the books for over $100M total value. There’s 19 teams in MLB that have NEVER had a single contract worth $100M.
Baseball is broken, Hockey got it right!
Is my angry Blue Jays fan showing? LOL
Q: which came first, current wealth, or McDrai excitement/level of play?
It’s quite likely that if there were no Cap McDrai would have gone to Toronto or NY long before this franchise became wealthy. Or was it wealthy enough in the 2010s to buy a winning team for these two to stay with?
Having a wealthy owner willing to spend money and a tax base willing to spend lots of money helped a lot. Overall times have changed. I remember those great Red wings Colorado battles of the 90s. The Avs are broke in a cap world. Without a cap they’d be expansion level.
The Avalanche are owned by Kroenke Sports and Entertainment
KSE owns the LA Rams (NFL), Arsenal FC (EPL), Denver Nuggets (NBA), Colorado Avalanche (NHL), Colorado Rapids (MLS), Colorado Mammoth (NLL), and Altitude Sports & Entertainment.
It also own SoFi Stadium which generates hundreds of millions in annual revenue from non-NFL events as well as revenue from Los Angeles Chargers games since they also play at So-Fi.
Kroenke Sports and Entertainment’s estimated annual revenue is currently $251M per year.
Directly owning TV rights to the Avalanche and other sports properties also generates tens of millions annually.
Stan Kroenke’s personal net worth is estimated at $26.8 billion and is also now the largest private landowner in the United States.
According to The Land Report, which tracks private landholdings, Kroenke’s recent purchase of 937,000 acres of ranchland in New Mexico brought his total holdings to 2.7 million acres.
For context, 2.7 million acres of land is twice the size of Delaware, more land than Yellowstone National Park or Los Angeles County, and roughly the combined size of Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and San Antonio.
Extrapolating operating revenue for stand alone franchises like the Oilers doesn’t capture that ticket prices are market specific as are broadcast/rights revenues since much of those those would not be included in team revenue.
For example Altitude Sports also broadcasts Nuggets NBA games and fans who live in Altitude’s nine-state broadcast territory have access to all of Altitude’s programming, including live Nuggets and Avalanche games, plus pre- and post-game coverage, full episodes of Altitude Sports originals, and regional collegiate coverage of Colorado State, University of Denver, and Air Force Academy athletics.
The Avs will never be broke.
As an aside…as of late 2025, the number of sellouts in NHL arenas shows 1 team with 12 (BOS) 7 teams with 11 (COL, DAL, FLA, TBL, MON, NSH, VGK)
EDM has 7 while, oddly enough, MIN with only 2 which is down 7 from the same time last season.
“Stan Kroenke’s personal net worth is estimated at $26.8 billion”
This was all that really needed to be said here but thanks for the Wikipedia copy paste.
It looks like Stan’s actually found at least 2 goalies.
Ingram and Ungar – the only caveat with the second being I’d like to see him live and in person for 2 games before cementing that one. But the numbers and the journey are leaping off the page.
As for “luck”, you know from our years of online conversation that I won’t go there with you LT. Where the puck goes when it is shot, including if it hits things on the way, is not luck. It is skill and choices and timing and all kinds of things. The fact that it is many, many factors interacting does not make it “luck”, at least not in the way people understand it.
I was waiting for your comment. 🙂
I’ve always found that consistency leaves an impression – even when it is consistently being obstinate 🙂
Hahaha.
The best discussions are when hockey and philosophy collide. Shame that it is tricky to do that online. We do our best.
Looks like Holland actually found Ungar. So Bowman has two goalies – rather than found.
I think the bigger caveat is NHL vs. AHL vs. ECHL on Ungar and not seeing him live, no?
Ungar was also found by Holland.
The real important thing here is that Ungar was found by Holland.
You sure??
I think I read that earlier in the day . . . . . . around 10:30 I believe . . . . . . .
What do you mean by it is not luck in the way people understand it?
You describe a shot as bring many, many factors interacting. That is the description as a complex system (in the physics sense) which is inherently unpredictable. Slight changes in the initial conditions cause different outcomes.
It is interesting that you point out 2 of the factors being choices and timing. Timing involves human perception which has physical limitations. And human choices are noisy in the sense that a human will look at the same situation and not always make the same choice.
Would it not involve some amount luck when some of these factors are outside human conscious control?
You shoot a puck hits an opposing player in the skate. That’s roughly a 6 inch by 6 inch space, and no matter how much shooting skill, you can not confidently predict where the puck will go. You hit the toe, you hit the laces, you hit the blade, you hit the boot heel, you hit the insole… it’s all luck where that puck ends up.
Other things that can cause “lucky” bounces: stanchions, referees, excess snow, a groove in the ice, other body parts, curved glass, a tumbling puck, a rivet along the top of the boards, the small gap in the Zamboni door… all not minimized by all the skill in the world. If it could be “outskilled”, McDavid would recover every bobbled puck in the world.
I read that most folks are anointing Jarry the number one position in net with Ingram as the back up. I suggest that it could be the other way around and one could go so far as to suggest that next year we may have a Ingram Unger tandem
I’m always with the goalies, but I agree. We do not know what we have in Jarry. There is a reason Pittsburgh fans (& mgt) happy to swap him for Skinner. I’m hoping he can give them the thumbs up, as Skinner is now giving the thumbs up to many in Oilerville. We won’t know until the playoffs… In the meantime, and even if Jarry doesn’t perform, I’m pulling for Ingram to keep showing what he’s been showing.
I would suggest that its far more likely they have an Ingram/Jarry tandem that comes in below $8MM and that is a tandem you can win Stanley with.
I look forward to seeing if Ungar can continue and take more steps but we are a LONG ways from locking him in to the NHL tandem for next year – based off a 20 game run mostly in the ECHL.
I’m not going to dwell too much on the donut. Sometimes they will happen. Maybe Bouch could have sold that non goal a little more instead of being the first guy saying ‘I don’t think so’, but in this day and age you’re not going to see much snuck by. I’m becoming an Ingram fan. Like, I haven’t bought one of those snazzy cream jerseys yet and when I do it’s as likely to be an Ingram as anyone. Maybe I’ll hold off through the deadline (cuz, y’know, Oilers FO always charts their own paths), but I am liking this goalie a lot!
Ingram has a chance to be the most impactful Oiler to wear #39 since Dougy Weight (with apologies to Alex Chiasson).
———–
Only two Oilers this year have worn jersey numbers no Oiler has worn before. McJeebus is one. Who is t’other?
Stu?
Negatory. Bear wore #74 before the Principal.
Howard
Nein. The other Skinner wore #53 last season.
Nuge?
Nope not nuge. I had to look it up
I’ll let others Still keep guessing.
I see what you did there. Stillman’s #61 has never been worn before.
I am a jerk because there are actually three, with Walman’s #96. Good catch by the Slushy one.
In my defense, Hockey Reference didn’t list Walman as unique because apparently Roslovic wore #96 with the Oilers as well?!?
I will have to give credit to the magic of AI. I have no integrity, unlike unusuallyusual
But 6-7 was all me
Every kid just lost their mind
Heh heh
Wally
96-97. 6-7
I can agree with bad luck to a point. Bouchard and Draisaitl posts were definitely in that category. Sorokin played well, that game could have easily been 5 or 6 to 1 for the good guys. Should have been at least 2 or 3 nothing before the Draisaitl penalty. Just no finish from too many of our guys. Hyman lifts that puck into the top half and it’s an easy goal. Savoie reminds me of Todd Merchant out there. Lots of chances, but no hands to finish. Hope the game slows down enough for him to bear down on those. Many guys just whacking the puck around hoping it goes in.
I also thought Sorokin got in their heads a bit. Causing McDavid and RNH, and Drai to overpass at times when they could have easily taken a high danger shot
Leon missed.
So did Evan.
Leon by a lot, actually (the whole right side of the net was open). Evan by a little.
I’d argue that the speed of the game is the only thing preventing Savoie from being a 20 goal guy by next year. In the meantime he is a great PK option, good on the forecheck and hustles all the time. TOI and increasing his shots will get him the rest of the way.
That line was great last night, very few mistakes and lots generated and some good looks but, again, they did not score – that’s 5 games and zero goals with there primarily offensive players.
For now, that lines likely stays together – the Oilers played an excellent game last night, no need to make big changes, but I did say after two games, that line needs to score soon, for their confidence and for the coach to trust them – they didn’t last night but, generally, they will leak some grade As against – Roslovic is not a center and not a centre on a line that can’t give up goals.
The Oilers need a 3C but I’m not sure I agreee that “at some point Nuge will check down to the No. 3 center” – I mean this has never happened (Nuge has only played 2C – generally in load up scenario or when one of the big guys is out of the lineup) and, while Knob has mentioned in as a possibility, we’ve still yet to see it.
Coyle, Jenner, ROR – sure all would be great there but I’m not counting on an external add here until I see it – LTIR is really the Oilers only chance to add and I think Rico is coming back and will not count on other LTIR placements.
These team NEEDS Frederic to get there, 3C, its key – I acknowledge that its unlikely he gets there this year but maybe, just maybe.
leadfarmer posited the below lines. i would however make a minor change.
Savoie-Mcd-Hyman
Podz-Drai-Kappy
Barron-Nuge-Roslovic
Janmark-Lazar-Freddi
howard will be a great player for us for years to come but in the playoffs the big body/grittiness and physicality of barron would go a long way.
it gives you a great combo of speed, physicality, scoring ability on the top 3 lines and then you have a 4th line of energy/physicality/killing time.
Does it inherently make sense to everyone but me that savoie plays his off wing on top line to allow hyman to do the same thing?
Like board work cycling is hard enough hill for savoie to climb against high quality competition as, given his size, he likely really won’t be full man strength and seasoned enough experience wise to be as effective as he might get for 2-3 more seasons.
All your trapping or advancing puck on backhand seems uneccessary given hyman shpuld be able to easily switch to LW.
Janmark doesn’t add anything offensively period. I would trade him for sure for $
what janmark can do is pk, and run the clock this is key for allowing your top 3 lines to get rest.
I honestly don’t see much that needs to be fixed after watching that game last night. One area I’m torn on is whether this team needs to target a Jarrett Stoll or a Steve Staios at the deadline.
An absolutely amazing game… very unfortunate result. Think I’ll have a Lucky.
Prospectunity!
A momentous occasion tonight as it marks the first time this season that the full octet of NAmateurs will be in participaction. Full House Friday!
Even though Fischer is enjoying a breakout junior campaign (5-11-16 in 20 GP), he is somehow the only NAmateur who did not record a point his last time out. One wonders whether he will be trade bait if the Oilers go big-game hunting at the TDL.
It took Nicholl a while to get his sea legs, but he fashioned a 1st-star, 1+1 showing yesterweekend. He inherited the 1C spot from O’Reilly–will the captaincy follow? We wait.
With a sterling 18-4 record, the Michiganders remain tops in the Div-1 rankings. Park went off for 2+1 last Saturday–a sign of things to come?
Lewandowski has tailed off slightly from his hot start to the season but is still better than a point per game this season. He and the Blades take on a Swift Current squad that has a CHL-worst 5.22 GA/G.
London (Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
UMass-Lowell (Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 6 p.m.
St. Thomas (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 8 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 8 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Elk Point time.
Sheldon Sourays home town
Nuge is scoreless in 10 games. He needs to drive his own line. I know that the Mcdavid line looks great with him but that means all our offense is on one line and Nuge isn’t contributing much to it. If we need someone to work hard and provide two way play and not score just put Savoie on that line and let the 3rd line fly, The downgrade from Nuge to Savoie on top line is much less than the upgrade of Nuge to the 3rd line
Savoie Mcdavid Hyman
Podk. Drai Kapanen
Howard Nuge Roslovic
Frederic Lazar Janmark
this actually makes a heck of a lot of sense.
savoie can dig pucks and provide speed and defensive acumen in that role.
nuge at 3c is the key methinks unless they bring in a legit 3c at the deadline.
True hockey has the largest element of randomness of the major sports. Feet not touching terra firma, hands not on the object, which also happens to fly around at amazing velocity
Still there are some teams that employ tactics to minimize the effects of luck. And also the effects of a goalie playing well
The Oilers aren’t one of those teams, at least not consistently. I truly hope these Oilers aren’t remembered like the 70’s Sabres, or Thornton Sharks. Or as the team that created the best highlight reels, whose true supreme talent was spectacular self foot shooting
My Bruins of the 1970’s were such a team, but won twice. I don’t think there’s any magic formula available to the Oilers. They aren’t going to be a shutdown team because they’re not built that way. Ingram’s play and the addition of Jarry offers a new wrinkle for this season, but the Oilers will enter the 2026 playoffs with less of a rugged edge and a penalty kill that has been flaccid for over one year. Bruins had those things.
I do think there is a formula. If they would choose to play the way all teams have to when it’s hard to score, if they want make the odds better, I think they would have the range to win a Cup. If they don’t add it to their repertoire, they are relying on luck and individual plays too much
They don’t have to try to be something they’re not, it’s just a change in offensive approach when the situation warrants it. For this group if the other guys are letting them do their thing, fine. If not, change to basic tactics
It’s always been the way: get in the goalie’s eyes, do things to make saves hard – pre-shot puck movement, deflections, things Perry is great at which is why he can still score. Along with the better goaltending, you’re rolling
I agree with Adam Oates, that the offensive tactics a lot of teams now use are too spread out (the Oilers’ tendency for perimeter play), for a lot of players to be effective
I think the Oilers will play that style, but not in this era. All of their cannons are pointed in one direction and there isn’t a roster-wide commitment to detail. It has to start at the top. I don’t see it.
Sad but true!
This: “It has to start at the top. I don’t see it.”
The Yzerman moment. Will McD have his?
Draisaitl’s wistful words about Selke. When will he take his dream seriously?
Last night gave me a glimmer of hope. Not that the Glimmer Twins keep lighting the lamp, but that they lead this team by playing a (mostly) responsible game. Last night’s team might be the contender we’ve been waiting to see this year.
Luck, and then the NHL openly allowing a different set of rules for the current Cup Champs.
You can say they got goalered or bad luck but at some point you must realize that this team just doesn’t have players that can put the puck in the net. If Drai has an off night because he does cause he plays too much that takes his whole line with him. So then unless Mcdavid Hyman or Bouch score no one will.
Frederick Janmark Lazar Savoie are absolutely no threat to score. Frederic Janmark and Savoie are 3 of the worst finishers in the entire league.
Looking for positives two of those players are very likely to improve and could be a huge part of a quality third line.
Janmark is who he is.
Savoie was certainly a threat to score last night – I watched the game.
Yes, I know, he missed the net a couple of time (again) but the threat was there and, at some point, his sights will get re-jigged and he’ll be more productive.
Or you have to say the coach just doesn’t trust anyone beyond the top 2 lines.
I appreciate LT’s optimism this morning, but the coach is going full Tippett with his lines. His only answer now seems to be throw 97 & 29 over the boards. He’s not giving his 3rd line minutes (9-11 minutes a night is a waste). McDrai are going to be completely gassed come playoffs.
The third line played 9 to 11:30 last night at 5 on 5.
It’s a fact most goals are scored in the top third of the net. The forwards have an aversion to that for some weird reason. They do it for a while and score, then revert and dry up. You aren’t beating the top goalies on the ice or by trying to pass the puck into the net very often
Especially when there is no real effort to create traffic. Or screens. To set up puck movement to players with space in scoring positions. Either the players are really stubborn, or most of them incompetent, or the coaches are missing the plot for the final piece for this group. I lean to the latter
The Buffalo Sabres have played 2 games less and have 2 more points. Yes, the Buffalo Sabres. 2 Pacific teams chasing them have 2 games in hand and a better last 10 GP record, 3 points ahead of each
Of all teams currently in the playoffs, only the Stars have a worse L10 record. Time to make hay
Word from Rick Dhaliwal this morning that the Canucks and Sharks are working on a deal for Kiefer Sherwood (who is currently on short-term IR).
They’re coming.
When you bet all the horses at the same amount just to be able to say you won, it isn’t winning. Pick a lane, sport.
Evaluating the roster strength of teams is not betting on them.
Who are “they coming for”?
31 other teams.
So, the Avs too?
lol
The very rare LT burn.
Gold Jerry! Gold!
Yes, we can say that got goalied because we watched the game and know that the goalie was the mains reasons 2-3-4 goals didn’t go in (5 goals on an “average” goalie on most nights).
Yup, lack of finish (by stars and non-stars) a bit of luck, etc. are part of the game story but the Oilers scored 3-4-5 goals 8 times out of 10 based on on-ice play, even against Sorokin.
Couldn’t agree more. They played well and win that game 9 out of 10 times.
Agreed LT.
The Condors play Friday/Sunday here in Calgary, not back to back and no inter-game travel.
Consider if they might play Ungar in both? I highly doubt it but can hope.
Beautiful song. Joni Mitchell, one of my all time favourites. (Growing up on the coast I can only imagine what it is like, to have a long Saskatchewan river to “skate away on”)
Beautiful game. One of the best this season for this team. Bring that every night and it’ll be a W way more often than not.
When people ask me the best Christmas song I always say Fairytale of New York, but it River qualifies, that’s the best one ever.
I remember a time where you mentioned River (which I love too!), and literally as I was reading the article, River came on my Spotify.
Serendipity!
After the bad penaty leading to the losing goal and missing the empty net to tie the game and extend McDavid’s point streak, there is every chance Leon is about to go on a legit Leon heater!