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It’s easy to forget that Leon Draisaitl has been around for just three seasons with the Edmonton Oilers. Each of the three have been so different it is somewhat difficult to project what comes next. The distressing part is that the Oilers have to make a value judgement so early in his career. Long term at big money? Bridge? There is real danger here. (Bridge Burning)
LEON DRAISAITL 2016-17
- 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 51 NHL)
- 5×4 points per 60: 6.67 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 10 NHL)
- Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
- Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 0.5
- DFF Elite 5×5 %: 52.70
- DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 4.8
- Shots on goal/percentage: 172 shots/16.9%
- Boxcars: 82, 29-48-77 (No. 8 NHL)
- (All numbers via Puck IQ, Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
RE 17-18: 79GP, 26-58-84 (1.06)
- Interesting numbers. Very close to last year (82gp, 29-48-77) but he does get a bump. I think Draisaitl is a fantastic player and he is going to get the push again.
- How much do you have him playing with McDavid? A lot. Leon is my No. 1 RW for 2017-18, I believe Todd McLellan will agree. It’s the easiest duo on the team to match, and to count on.
- Many people believe Draisaitl moves to center this year. I have him at RW for about 70 percent of the season, all with 97.
- Don’t you think they transition him? My other choices are less proven than 29 and in the world of reasonable he makes a lot of sense. This season will see a transition to center for Draisaitl, but the Oilers have decided it’s also audition time among wingers. Leon stabilizes the position in a big way.
- It’s a waste of a good faceoff man! How so? He can take faceoffs while playing with McDavid, he did last year and was effective.
- Your premise, and your numbers, are wrong! There’s a change in the weather surrounding Leon these days, mostly because of the contract I expect. Todd McLellan is a coach who would like to win, and coaches often stay with what worked.
- Eberle worked just as well! Eberle is in Brooklyn, the resume on Ryan Strome doesn’t allow me to reasonably project him into the 1RW spot. It may happen, but a productive Leon alongside McDavid is the reasonable bet.
- Still, there are swings and misses, this RE misses on all levels. It’s easy to describe the leaves in the autumn, and it’s oh so easy in the spring. But down through January and February it’s a very different thing.
- What’s that from? It’s out there for you to find.
- So, there’s no way Leon spends the entire season at center? Sure, if Ryan Strome finds chem with Connor McDavid or Jesse Puljujarvi grows up in a quick hurry. Leon at center is the better plan, but I think we’ll see 97-93-Strome-Letestu for much of the season up the middle.
- Why not Nuge on the McDavid line? That would help in possession. The McDavid line is already killing it in possession. If the Oilers want to improve the success rate, getting a better set of blue passers would be far more effective.
- You are a stubborn ass. Charged and convicted many times over.
- Who would Leon play with if he is a center? Lucic and Slepyshev had success with him, I’d like to see Jussi Jokinen and Jesse Puljujarvi get a chance (although JP lacks experience for what would/will be an tough minutes line).
- What if the plan is to run Nuge as the defensive conscience and have McDavid linger at the blue line for the outlet pass? First, McDavid is going to be first back a lot anyway, that’s just the nature of being a rocket on skates. Second, let’s not turn this fellow into Gilbert Perreault. Third, if you’re running Nuge as a defensive conscience on 97’s line, that implies Leon isn’t able to do certain things defensively yet. How is he going to run his own tough minutes line? One more year with Nuge, might as well use it.
- Can we talk about the contract? Please.
- What is your outer marker? Eight years and probably $8.25 million per year. Something like that, otherwise you really are negatively impacting the ability to put a contending team on the ice.
- What if there is an offer sheet? I don’t think it’s coming, but if it does PC has to match and then trade the big man next summer.
- That would be a terrible result. Noxious. Better to have it happen before the Nuge trade though, at least you have some cover.
- Matching $10 million times seven doesn’t work. No, it doesn’t. Oilers can survive for one year, then deal Draisaitl next summer. I think they can get some value back, and more immediate value. Matching gives Edmonton some degree of control.
- What do you think happens? I think he signs late August, a deal that hurts both sides but can be lived with. I don’t think either side will want a Johnny Gaudreau here, this team is in the window to win the Stanley Cup. Some urgency by August, I bet.
- Can we begin to put Leon into historical perspective? It’s a little difficult because LD has had three very different seasons. His current comparables are excellent (Matt Duchene, Nathan Horton, I wrote about it here) but if he has a season like I’m projecting, the comps become something else again.
- Who would his comps be? Ryan Getlzaf, Eric Staal, that level of center. Leon is not far from emerging as an elite talent and if he makes it this season, we can rest assured the Oilers have their twin towers.
- But he won’t push the river as a center? I don’t see it, not yet. More to do with the roster than Leon, but there are lessons to learn, and the organization has really put themselves in a spot on RW.
- What has to happen at RW to make it work? I think it comes down to Jesse Puljujarvi. If the young Finn can grab the 1RW job beginning 2018 fall, that gives Todd McLellan the freedom to move Leon to the middle. Chiarelli will have traded Nuge by then.
- Why this song? Two reasons. First, obviously the title and lines like “tell me what’s in it for me, nobody getting this for free” can be applied to the current situation. On the other hand, the song also shows tremendous power and reflects Leon’s ability to crush the Pacific Division with McDavid. Great song.
There is no question that 27-97 beat their competition.
The problem was the rest of the roster lost to their competition and 27-97 didn’t score enough to bail out the other 3 lines.
The goal rate for 27-97 is waaaaaaaay below 19-97 and this helped win games.
The goal share of 27-97 was awesome, but they didn’t score enough.
who,
Don’t think Maroon kept up any better than Lucic did. He just converted goal mouth passes a lot better than Lucic which is a skill in itself.
I think that “converting goal mouth passes a lot” is = to “keeping up”
who,
Agreed and this is why I’m as bullish (if not more) bullish than LT on Yamamoto.
I went back and watched a bunch of his highlight packages and a few game streams I could find. Kid has a great nose for the net, very good at finding a spot amongst the crowd and getting his stick on the ice. Very good in right around the crease, slippery too, doesn’t take a lot of abuse as he’s going about it.
Big fan, really pulling for him, hope he can find a way to get transition
IF, and thats a big if, the plan is to ‘pump and dump” Nuge this year, then he must remain at centre and prove he can excel. That is where his highest trade value lies. If he lights it up on Connor’s wing he is still going to get the “anyone can score with McDavid/he’s only a winger” mark down in trade value.
Nuge (C)-Drai (RW) this year to maximize chance of his personal success this year. Strome at 3C. Drai slides into 2C role in 2018-19 after the Nuge trade.
Maybe Lucic will play with some more emotion. “That’s my team. That’s my Connorback.”
Hopefully Looch doesn’t whip out a sharpie and sign the puck after a goal…
Not to bring up the hall trade again, but we basically all knew that lucic was his replacement.
So I did some digging on him, and he really is a possession monster. We can argue on whether or not it’s his linemates or not, but he is a first line talent, no doubt in my mind.
Also, I think you really need to look at all three common linemates together and apart to get a good picture of who’s actually pushing who on the line.
If I recall, when you looked at lucics WOWY numbers in Boston, he looks pretty good when comparing him, Krejci, and Horton.
Either way he’s a great hockey player. Hopefully the numbers bounce back at even strength.
PS. I hope Lowetide is right about Draisaitl.
I see some stuff in his numbers which I have mentioned before which make him a candidate for regression.
Shooting percentage, both individual and team.
Crazy high PP production rate.
Hopefully he cements himself as one of the truly elite and proves me wrong on those stats.
I certainly like his fire in the playoffs. I never had him pegged to be so aggressive, which is a must for playoff hockey.
McDavid with Lucic- 64.7% GF
McDavid without Lucic- 61.1 % GF
McDavid with Maroon- 62% GF
McDavid without Maroon-62.3% GF
McDavid and Lucic together had a corsi of 55.3.
McDavid and Maroon together had a corsi of 52.9.
Looks like McDavid played just as well or better with Lucic as he did with Maroon if we go by fancies.
Maybe Maroon just had the hockey gods on his side?
I know Lucic doesn’t have rocket boots, but he’s a good hockey player by most metrics I can find.
Agreed. I thought he handled himself really well in the playoff game he jumped into. I was looking forward to him playing this year. Sekeras injury provided him with the perfect opportunity. Oh well
It’s funny how the results always seem to slice, but lucic always seems to make his teammates better.
Don’t think Maroon kept up any better than Lucic did. He just converted goal mouth passes a lot better than Lucic which is a skill in itself.
If keeping up to MacDavid is the criteria than Caggulia should be playing the left side.
I wouldn’t be against Griff coming back but I think his depth has been replaced by Stanton.
With 50 contracts (48 after two slides), I don’t think this makes sense unless a contract is going back the other way.
Suntory Hanzo,
Love you too baby!
IM really surprised no one offered him anything substantial.
If Lucic can play at his previous levels, this team will be formidable.
I pray that this happens.
1) thanks to all for pointing out Vor’s tale yeterday. Backtracked and read it. Lovely stuff.
2) wonderful having you back Woodguy
3) don’t post often unless I have been drinking or I think it’s really important. This time it is the latter.
Woodguy v2.0,
Indeed this was a huge problem and I believe Looch is aware of it. Milan sent out a summer workout photo about a month back. His trainer this year is Terrell Owens. Questionable team character but if Milan is looking to find his young man feet for this season TO may be one of the better ex-athletes to consult. During his prime the man’s first 10-15 yards off the line were some of the quickest, most explosive in the NFL.
Curious to see the results in a few more months.
I expect he has all kinds of low ball offers for $1 M a season or so.
He is likely trying to leverage injuries/ poor training camps by others into a bigger bucks. 2 yrs ago he got $3.325 M x 2 from BUF – on Sept 10.
Franson might go to Chicago on a PTO. Should Edmonton have jumped on that?
I know it very well might turn out like the Versteeg situation, which might further sully future FA draws even with the McDavid Factor©, but at least it’s a shot?
Lucic in LA.:
Kopitar with Lucic
3.76 GF/60
Kopitar without Lucic
2.14 GF/60
Carter with Lucic
2.59 GF/60
Carter without Lucic
2.21 GF/60
Bank Shot,
I suspect those totals move closer together this season regardless of which guy plays on McDavid’s left wing.
I think you’re right that it will be closer, but Lucic not being able to keep up with the play on 97’s line was a big deal.
19 kept up and cashed the crazy opportunities that playing with 97 will afford.
http://www.tsn.ca/report-franson-may-join-blackhawks-on-pto-1.806527
Well given Las Vegas’s obvious intentions to be completely terrible and build for the future, I think they likely want to keep the 23 year old Reinhart and will look to dump guys like Garrison, Stoner, and Sbisa instead.
I think there is certainly some validity to this. He relies heavily on short quick passes
Speaking of burned bridges… We have a plethora of LD on the team and in the minors alrsady. I hope Chiarelli just let’s it go.
It’s an interesting theory. If I remember correctly I think lucic and carter went on quite a bit of a heater together in LA.
I am hoping lucic can make a come back at evens. You see players struggle so often there first year with a new team. Hopefully this isn’t the norm
Well that makes sense given that Maroon scored 24 goals at even strength last season to Lucic’s 10.
Maroon was tied for 4th in the NHL last year for ES goals. Is he going to replicate that?
Lucic’s totals for ES goals were also uncharacteristically low given his recent history.
I suspect those totals move closer together this season regardless of which guy plays on McDavid’s left wing.
General managers are always interested in players they acquired, bet there is interest should it come to pass.
Staples has a good article up today. Anyone interested in a trade for Rienhart?
Any other Vegas leftovers? These guys likely won’t pass through waivers so you would think they come cheap.
By linchpin I’m referring to the the goal rate by McDavid’s line with 19 compared to 27.
There is almost no difference between 29 and 14 on RW when you control for who plays LW.
McDavid’s line scored much more with 19 on LW than 27 regardless of who played RW.
Horton was RW, not C.
Their C was Krejci, who is RHC.
Interesting line of thinking.
Will try to have a look.
Not significant at all imo.
The significant difference in 97’s results lie on who was playing LW, not RW.
100%
Going on Bob’s show at 12:35pm today if you want to listen.
I work for steak, pillows, soup & sammys.
I think the issue there is that they didn’t score enough to out-score the rest of each roster.
Their goal share was fine, but the Oilers lost.
I had a look at every team’s “tough minute C” and their results.
I didn’t make a post on it, but did a series of tweets.
RNH doesn’t come out looking good at all.
The series starts here: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/858691471569977354
If the Oilers are going to be a Championship team, they need to be good when 97 isn’t on the ice.
My post about teams with their star on/off the ice shows clearly that the Cup contenders are still good with their star off.
The Oilers are not there yet.
Here’s that post: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html
This is what I thought as well. Don’t know why people are inflating Drai’s total so much and saying it’s “fair”.
A fair contract would be $7-7.8 million. Just like his more established peers.
Fair’s got nothing to do with it
I agree that Maroon was less of a drag on MacDavids than Lucic was but I am not sure what you mean by linchpin. I do think Maroon did a better job of finishing chances than Lucic did but I certainly don’t see him as key to that line.
I think the team could run any left winger they have with MacDavid and Drai and that line is still going to have success. If they can find a right winger who can keep up with, and play off of MacDavid, then they can afford to move Drai to center. But if they can’t, I think they will support MacDavid with Drai and ensure themselves one dominant line.
I believe that one of the right wingers will emerge as a bona fide first line player at some point in the next two years.
I think a fair contract for Draisaitl is 8 x $8.5 million. Fair relative to McDavid. Fair relative to his peers at a similar point in their careers. Fair relative to the new contracts that are going to be signed soon by Eichel, Matthews, Johanssen, Tavares, and Seguin.
Any less, advantage OIlers. Any more, advantage Draisaitl.
I think the lines will come down to defensive stability. Leon and Connor have a way to go in the maturity of their games, rightfully so.
Nuge and Strome are also young and still developing. We might see Jokinen at 3C at some point. They will try to develop the youth but if there are losing streaks I can see them moving young guys to the wings until things stabilize.
CMD
Nuge
Jokinen
Letestu
Connor can outscore his mistakes, Nuge is the most experienced young guy. Ideally I think they want Strome at centre because of his right shot. And Leon because he will be too expensive as a winger long term.
CMD
Drai
Strome
Lucic needs to play with a RHC…Lucic relies heavily on quick give and goes and short quick passes to navigate through the neutral zone. Strome and Lucic will be stapled together at Evens, and Lucic’s EVPs will rebound. Can anyone find his career playing time with LHCs vs RHCs? Kopitar, Horton, who else?
Based on my napkin math (assuming TOI/ 60 of 20 min), this is about 8 goals a season difference. Of course very few people play 5 x 5 for 20 minutes. So we would be looking at maybe 6 goals difference. There could be a lot of other things at work there including QoC, defense pairings, and plain old luck.
In other words, is this really that significant?
If he takes 200 shots this year and scores 26 goals (as I am suggesting) that puts Leon at 13 percent. I didn’t project to shooting percentage, but that 200 number was in my thought process.
+1
I think it comes down to whether he can add quickness over the summer. When he made it to the play last year, he was his usual rambunctious, skilled self, but he spent too much time chasing. It was as if he brought a bazooka to a knife fight. Awesome power, but how the hell do you apply it?
I take the day off and LT is off the air??
“Yer not in the mood? Well you get in the mood!”
Would 14% plus be fair in your opinion or …..?